The Struggle For Ukraine

[ML]

ML,

Try http://download1324.mediafire.com/56w4bx08bapg/koo1odcb6ke66z1/SSRN-id4167193.pdf

BC, thanks for that.
But that site wants me to download something, which I don't want to do either.
And, they are going to install cookies!

[BC]

Yes, you want to download the .pdf file

On the original link Boethius gave you, you can also restrict the cookies by clicking on cookie settings at the bottom of the page and allowing only the functional cookie.

[Trenchcoat]

p d f

[BC]

So what did you think of the assessment, Trench?

[Trenchcoat]

So what did you think of the assessment, Trench?

Ah, yes it appears to be a more long winded version of the economic article I referred to a few days ago on here. Sorry I forgot to put the link I think, could have saved you all a lot of reading time Anyway here it is:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/

So yes, I concur.

[Chelseaboy]

Putler has gone a bit quiet lately..probably trying to work out his escape exit from Russia as his orc military faces defeat in Ukraine.


As per the UK MOD report today "Ukraine's counter offensive in Kherson is gathering momentum,and the orcs 49th Army is looking highly vulnerable,with the city of Kherson now virtually cut off from the other occupied territories ".


There is video out there of Ukrainian troops flooding across the Ingulets river,which forms the northern boundary of Kherson, and establishing a bridgehead south of it.


Meanwhile the bridges across the Dnipro river which the orcs were using to supply Kherson,have been smashed by Ukrainian Artillery and HIMARS.


The Ukrainian military has given the orcs occupying Kherson  an ultimatum of either surrendering or face annihilation.


There are 16,000 orcs there...it'll be a huge loss for their military...one i doubt they can recover from physically and mentally.


If and when Kherson is liberated from the orcs i suspect Crimea will be the next stage of the operation to liberate Ukraine from orcs,because once that's taken the orcs in Donbas will be encircled with Ukrainian troops holding the Kharkiv region,so no escape for the orcs through there either.


Just pummel them with HIMARS and western Artillery and finish them all off from a safe distance whilst drinking flasks of tea and eating biscuits .


Hopefully Ukraine will be receiving the 300km HIMARS missiles soon so they can start hitting the orc missile launchers at Belgorod too.


With 80% of the orc military in Ukraine it'll be a good opportunity to wipe them out and deal a terminal blow to the Kremlin regime.

[Chelseaboy]

Natasha Bertrand CNN reporter covering the White House and National security,after a briefing from Biden admin officials.


"We were briefed that over 75,000 Russians have either been killed or wounded in Ukraine ,which is huge.....over 80% of their land forces are bogged down,and they're tired ".

[Trenchcoat]

Looks like the Ukrainian military is going straight for retaking Kherson instead of going the longer route of circumventing it from the north. Looks like the bridges they have so far done them enough damage to hinder easy resupply but avoided taking them out completely. That's probably the best strategy as with a bit of luck the orcs will lose their nerve and make a run for it thereby avoiding a lot of civilian suffering. It also means that potentially Ukraine can get some troops over to the other side of the bridge if they are quick and push back the Orcs so they can't hammer Kherson with artillery from the other side of the river bank. Clearly taking out the ammunition dumps earlier in the month was key to avoid Kherson being decimated in an Artillery barrage from the Orcs. So that is something we and particularly the residents of Kherson have to be thankful for as those HIMARS really have helped avoid Kherson facing a similar fate to cities like in Mariupol & the Donbass hopefully. Still not yet won as Ukraine needs to find a way of displacing the Orcs from Kherson without hitting a lot of their civilians. HIMARS will help with accurate firing but I'm doubtful if they can do enough to displace the many of the individual 16,000 troops on the ground. Can only hope that the Orcs morale cracks under fire quickly.

It looks like Ukraine can't afford to linger too long now as of course hitting the bridges will make it harder to get food supplies into Kherson to the civilians and so a long siege would make them suffer food shortages and that could get difficult.

[Chelseaboy]

I very much doubt the orcs could hammer Kherson with their artillery from the other side of the Dnipro river,as the HIMARS and longer-range western Artillery will out-range them and wipe them out.


Long-range missiles are another story of course,so hopefully Ukraine will have some good SAM systems for Kherson to at least cut down the number that would get through.


If the proposed 300km HIMARS missiles are supplied to Ukraine they can hit the orc missile launchers in Crimea anyway.

[ML]

If and when Kherson is liberated from the orcs i suspect Crimea will be the next stage of the operation to liberate Ukraine from orcs,because once that's taken the orcs in Donbas will be encircled with Ukrainian troops holding the Kharkiv region, so no escape for the orcs through there either.

Why couldn't orcs just move straight east across into Russia?

No need to go up through Kharkiv.

[Trenchcoat]

Looks like Ukraine is playing centre stage for an arm's bazaar:

http://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1747539/lithuania-to-buy-himars-launchers-confirms-ministry

Looks like this conflict will end up as a paying game for the western arms industry. Happens I guess but at least Ukraine get the positive of kicking Russia's butt rather than having their own butt kicked.

[rwd123]

Why couldn't orcs just move straight east across into Russia?

They would but they're worried about goblins and warlocks. They're all out of pixie dust and waiting for unicorns to deliver more. Santa Claus is busy.

CB is delusional and thus uses fantastical, ergo childish language. 80% of Russian land forces in Ukraine? They haven't even mobilized the army. They're also bringing the Russian winter to the rest of Europe.

[Trenchcoat]

Odds are winter may bring a change in how this war is conducted once again. Artillery, tanks and other heavy weaponry can be almost impossible to move around if it becomes a muddy winter and only once the ground hardens likely in Jan/Feb next year does manoeuvring that gear get easy, if it hardens.

It's then we might see the Russians either resort to their weapons of mass destruction or mobilize their men for war en-masse. That all depends on if they have deep enough pockets for that, a population that doesn't kick back against it and enough AK47's or other guns to go around. If they do manage to get it together then it could turn a lot more into an infantry war I reckon. By the beginning of winter most of Russia's tanks that are operable will likely have been used up anyway and their artillery likely either out out of action or out of ammo so I think an infantry war could be highly likely with both sides bringing as many soldiers to the front as possible. That will mark a new phase in the war, Russians once again being the ones with snow on their boots.

By that time Ukraine could well have recovered some lost ground, quite possibly retaking Kherson but I'm not so sure about all that much more elsewhere. Putler can't afford to give up as he knows it will be the end for him. So odds are it will be down to either side seeing what they can bring to bear in an infantry war to bring success if possible. For Ukraine they can probably dig in particularly in the cities and have backup from their heavy weapons while Russians may well likely attack with large infantry numbers likely dwarfing that off Ukraine. Then just a matter of who cracks first if anyone.

[Chelseaboy]

Why couldn't orcs just move straight east across into Russia?

No need to go up through Kharkiv.

Yep they could and no doubt the increasing numbers of HIMARS will be placed at strategic points to inflict maximum damage to the fleeing orc horde,as the orcs will have no other options.It'll be the carnage of the retreat from Kyiv all over again.

[Chelseaboy]

You need ammunition to do that. Oh wait...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine

Maybe you're just salty that some fellow Brits are about to cop death by firing squad.

(FWIW I oppose capital punishment)

This channel has fairly balanced analysis.

Talking about delusional how's this post about Ukraine running out of ammo working out for you ?

[Chelseaboy]

As predicted...

Russia commenced "Phase 2" with the primary objective of complete control of the east and a secondary objective of taking the Black Sea coast. Unsurprising the news in Transnistria. NATO are getting involved surrepticiously in Transnistria, just like with the attack on the Moskva - which was closer to Romania (de jure NATO) than Ukraine (de facto NATO) when hit. Russia may need to recognize Transnistria as they did with LNR and DNR and perform a "special operation" or step up their "peacekeeping" else NATO may move in.

Also as predicted Russia wants to cut off supply lines from the west so have hit key rail infrastructure. Also as predicted Ukrainian forces suffering massive human casualties (and POWs).  Their attacks on Russian soil serve little strategic benefit so will have minimal impact in the course of the war.

I should have bought stock in Raytheon, Boeing and the other war profiteers... I should have kept a watch on Pelosi's investments...

In other news -

• One dead British mercenary confirmed, another missing
• Many other foreign mercenaries are perishing or captured
• Get your popcorn ready for when the Azovstal plant is "cleared", Putin ain't negotiating on that one! LOL @ Zelensky who wants Azov and NATO guys free to go to Turkey.
• Gazprom racking up record profits while Europe's economy is in a tailspin.
• European countries one by one accepting gas for rubles.
• Indonesia bans exports of palm oil... which Europe was using to cover the short fall of oil from Ukraine. The Europeans are ideological idiots!
• No surprise in France with Macron, nothing will really change there. Riots if not civil war is coming to France. That's not me talking but their former head of intelligence!
• Chinese lockdowns are a major concern. It's moronic and destructive but the CCP don't like losing face! Global implications but largely overlooked.
• The world is moving closer to nuclear conflict. This is far more serious than the Cuban missile crisis.

Sadly things are likely to escalate rather than de-escalate.

Trench - Russia is hitting ALL of Ukraine. There's no way you'll visit in the Summer unless Ukraine surrenders... not gonna happen on Biden's watch... or his son's laptop! Unless you're creating TikTok videos with Zelensky then Ukraine is a no go zone.

Here's another delusional  strategic master-class from you..now we see the orcs have been unable to advance to take the Black Sea coast and are in fact now struggling to hold on to Kherson.


Your posts do wear well don't they ? LOL.


i suggest you leave your Unicorn fantasies to the orc propaganda forums you frequent and leave the adults to discuss the realities of what's happening in the real world on here.

[Chelseaboy]

I'll take a man with no legs over a man with no brains. The "laptop from hell" resurfaced because regime change is coming to the USA.

Apparently the last oil refinery in Ukraine was destroyed last night. Hard to run a military on no gas. Hey Pat - does France still have a cavalry? Ukraine may need one!

Unconfirmed reports of child soldiers recruited in Ukraine (images/video available but not verifiable). Pitting kids against Spetsnaz? If true the Zelensky regime is truly despicable.

Here's another rwd123 classic that has worn well.


What was that about the Ukraine military having no gas ?


You do like clutching at straws don't you ?

[Chelseaboy]

The Russians have pinned down a large portion of the Ukrainian army in the south, and any moving from the north will face death from above. Supply lines will get hit and without them they're as good as dead. Southern Ukraine is no longer Ukraine! Plenty of Russian flags going up on buildings... if you're reading MSM then you're probably getting a distorted view. A mix of Telegram channels will give a better picture.

Some analysts have stated the Russian troop movements in the north were a bluff so that they could more effectively perform their operations in the south. Once the south falls it's as good as game over.

Boe - I'm not saying the Italian reporter is accurate, I have said it was inconclusive (but it's funny how it drops out of the news once it is reported). I've been pretty consistent in saying the first victim of war is the truth. Without an open mind one will fall back into personal biases.

"Southern Ukraine is no longer Ukraine "


Yes folks that's what the site idiot posted on April 11.


The more you post rwd123 the more clueless you make yourself look. 

I rest my case.

[Chelseaboy]

A video has been released last night from orc troops in Severodonetsk showing them torturing a wounded Ukrainian soldier POW and then castrating him with a box knife.


It was filmed during daytime.


I had the opportunity to watch it but couldn't..



Many Russians did watch it though,and clearly took pleasure in it,because equally sickening were the many messages of happiness and support for this hideous deed from fellow Russians on the internet.


These are the people that pro-Russian trolls such as rwd123 support/worship...which says much about them.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukraine now has MLRS M270's in the field to work alongside the HIMARS.


The firepower is increasing constantly to inflict more carnage on the raping,castrating,executing,looting orc's.


Night is dark and full of terrors.

[ML]

Ukraine now has MLRS M270's in the field to work alongside the HIMARS.

MLRS means Multiple Launch Rocket System.

Accordingly, the concept of MLRS covers both the M270 and the M142 HIMARS systems.

HIMARS (pronounced "Hymars") is an abbreviation for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System - a highly mobile artillery rocket fire system.

There are two key differences between the M142 HIMARS and the M270 units.

HIMARS has higher mobility being mounted on wheeled trucks whereas the M270 is mounted on tank tracks.

In turn, the HIMARS has half the immediate capacity with 1 package of six 277mm caliber missiles or 1 tactical medium-range ATACMS 610 mm caliber missile.

The M270 has immediate capacity of 2 packages of the 277 missiles (so 12 in total) or 2 of the 610 missiles.

The HIMARS has the huge advantage of 'shoot and run' which makes it very hard for the enemy to destroy a HIMARS.

[Chelseaboy]

Four more HIMARS from the USA and three MARS 11 MLRS from Germany have now arrived in Ukraine.

[BC]

I'd say that puts around 30 or more highly accurate medium-range rocket systems in UA plus a good bit of artillery as well.

[Trenchcoat]

Ukrainian tycoon killed in recent shelling of Nikolaev:

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62367356.amp

Was an extremely wealthy guy especially by Ukrainian standards. Nice jacket slightly like the one I have on the way, will no doubt impress if he was wearing something similar quality

Maybe girls out there would see me as a wealthy tycoon

[Boethius]

An article on Russian voices.

http://cepa.org/russias-military-grows-afraid-of-the-long-war/

This is the Facebook page of a Ukrainian soldier.

http://tinyurl.com/tujhdh8f