The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

comrads....
please listen to me...

as a zhid who has lived in Russia
someone who has negotiated circles around even the best toughest Russian negotiators

A Russian "Tell" is always this...
when the Russian gives ya a list of demands
the last one on the list is ALWAYS the most important!
PONNELLE?

smatree...and vidisch well

"Any ceasefire would only be possible if it was more than just a freezing of the fighting but aimed at a final, binding resolution to the causes of the war.
  Russia would not negotiate over the four regions of Ukraine that are “now part” of Russia: Crimea, the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (including those parts Moscow does not currently control) which Putin now says is in response to its citizens’ calls for “self-determination” in accordance with [Moscow’s interpretation] of “the UN Charter.”

 A simple delay to Ukraine joining NATO no matter how long was unacceptable – Kyiv should abandon all plans to join the alliance and declare itself a neutral country.
 Ukraine must enact legal guarantees to respect and protect the rights and interests including the language and culture of its Russian-speaking minorities.
 All sanctions against Russia must be lifted.
"

so here's how it's gonna "play out"

1. Donald Trump will apologize to Putin for Nato's expansion
2. All sanctions from Russia removed

in exchange, Trump will get a 20 year delay for NATO entry, instead of never
China will be pissed if Putin makes this deal
so will Iran
goodby BRICs

I doubt a 20 year wait to get into NATO assuming Russia doesn't attack again in that time will be enticing to Ukraine.

The US lifting it's sanctions on Russia I cannot see will do anything for Russia significant enough to give it an upper hand fighting in Ukraine. So long as Ukraine can get funding from the EU it can simply dig in and wait while Russia does itself in trying to slowly capture a little more of its soil. Von der Leyen seems very much opposed to Trump and is likely to try and take the opportunity to replace the US leading in Europe by backing Ukraine.

The UK's Kier Starmer is a weak man it seems and while he backs Ukraine his attempts will likely not be strong enough. If the UK threw all it's weight behind Ukraine and dug deep to give big funding and supply of Armaments that could help out a lot, Boris may have done. As it is it's likely to be having to hope to rely on the EU to continue funding the war in Ukraine. Russia isn't the power it started the war at and so not as huge funding will likely be needed now to keep Ukraine holding on.

We'll see what happens in the coming days & weeks for sure, but the more time that passes the more knackered out Russia becomes and the closer it gets to hitting the wall on its economy and military situation.

[krimster2]

Musk, the techno oligarch is gonna define AGI, Artifical General Intelligence, as AI that is able to generate $100 BILLION/YR in revenue
the only way it can reach that amount is by replacing human workers with AI ones
and that's how the oligarch profits
and that's why they want low taxes
so they can keep it all, that's why it's called keepitalism

[Trenchcoat]

Volker, Trumps last term special envoy to Ukraine has suggested ways that Trump may put pressure on Putin to end the war:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn0y51z7wedt

http://euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/22/politico-us-may-use-frozen-russian-assets-to-force-moscow-negotiate-on-peace-deal-says-volker/

We'll see which way Trump eventually swings but I think potentially he may see that he has come come to Office with Russia in a weak state after three years of war. As Volker points out, Russia doesn't really have months of war left in it, it's economy is not going to hold up and it's military can't sustain the pace it's been fighting at for much longer.

I personally think that the Ukraine war will continue as is for some time. Zelensky won't want to give up any land to Putler, Putler won't want to just leave Ukraine. Neither can likely afford a peace deal where either is seen as conceding land. Putler needs the land to satisfy his Oligarchs, Zelensky his own Oligarchs and the integrity of Ukraine. Both are likely to face peril after a peace deal where they lose land. So the same holds both of them locked in war.

Myself I am looking forward to the time in the near future when Russia can't take no more. When Russia's economy cracks up, disorder and chaos in Russia ensue and it's military runs out of its Soviet stockpile of Armaments. Seeing Russia completely lose the edge at the front and no longer having the big stick of it's once mighty army to threaten and beat smaller countries with is going to be a sight to be savoured. I definitely hope that day comes and it could just be months away by the looks of it.


Here if recent Andrew Tate has announced his bid to become PM of the UK backed by Elon Musk. Musk fell out with Nigel Farage when Farage made it clear to Musk that Tommy Robinson (English Defence League) has no place in his party, Reform. Farage knows how the bulk of the UK electorate are very moderate and having someone like Tommy Robinson around is going to be like the kiss of death to his chances at the next election - since Tommy is seen as being racist. Now Elon has created a problem as Andrew Tate will risk splitting the vote with Reform and potentially neither doing very well. I am not so sure that Elon understands UK politics very well and is thinking he can play puppeteer. Farage is well liked in the UK and while Tate could be a formidable opponent Farage is not likely to lose support easily.

[2tallbill]

Elon Musk I can see as running for President in 2028. He'll probably win the nomination
against Vancy pants as I don't see Vance as being able to project himself as well.

I think that Baron Trump should be considered as Leader of the House of Lords.
Baron is right there in his name! I wonder if there could be any reason that he
wouldn't be immediately considered the top candidate? Since his name is Baron
shouldn't he get some sort of hereditary title as well?

[2tallbill]

Volker, Trumps last term special envoy to Ukraine has suggested ways that Trump may
put pressure on Putin to end the war:

I would love that some sort of sanction would pressure Putin to end the war.

I think the best way would be to quietly move 250 F16's to Poland and maybe
900 Abrams tanks. Ukraine has 200 pilots trained on the F16. The Kremlin
would know that they could be turned over to Ukraine as easily as not.

Putin doesn't care if 100K young men from the Altai Republic die or not. He
doesn't care if pensioners have to eat mice to live. Those silly sanctions doesn't
affect how much caviar he has on his next piece of toast, he doesn't care about
lives, or sanctions.

He does care about looking bad.

[krimster2]

speak softly, but carry a big stick....eh Teddy?
no...this is the "Age of Aquarius" we don't use sticks...ewww....
we're enlightened, we only use carrots

i'm not a fan of the British Aristocracy or the American one either
personality cults are always WEIRD

Mao said "power grows out of the barrel of a gun"
that's so old fashioned

Mao was a Chinese Peasant
and he didn't know that money is even MORE powerful, it's the ONLY thing Putin cares about

Considering the US Treasury KNOWS how Putin has laundered his money and where it is
if the USA was interested in "standing up to Putin"
they could do it with a dozen FBI Agents and Attorneys
but they ain't gonna do that
now are they?
ergo - what do you conclude doma malchick?


Li'l Mini Kim and L'il Mini Putin would LOVE Barron Trump, dress him up as Captain America and make him the Ambassador to them both!!!!

Musk reminds me of myself, when I was MUCH younger, before I learned how to control my autism
dewds "on the spectrum" will mentally benefit from the discipline learned from military service
and not end up with Musk's behavior

if yur smart, do yur service in the air force or space force
and you can skip out on the trauma inducing aspects of killing people to make a living
and just wear yur uniform and do yur job
until yur a civilian again

if yur a russki kid, study Englisski/Spanish and electronics, join a patriotic group
and apply at the GRU
non college grads can get enlisted positions
and college grads are officer candidates, especially with fluent English/Spanish
the best GRU jobs are in the "Aquarium"
you will never sleep in the mud in winter or be shot at by hohols!!!!
and it'll look damn good on yur resume


slovo!


PS
they shall NOT care for him who shall have borne the battle, nor for his widow, or his orphan
the dead are always forgotten

'tis the season of scrooge and grinch
not of mercy and grace
can ye spare any coppers, me bruther

[Trenchcoat]

Musk reminds me of myself, when I was MUCH younger, before I learned how to control my autism
dewds "on the spectrum" will mentally benefit from the discipline learned from military service
and not end up with Musk's behavior

You mean like this:

[Trenchcoat]

I would love that some sort of sanction would pressure Putin to end the war.

I think the best way would be to quietly move 250 F16's to Poland and maybe
900 Abrams tanks. Ukraine has 200 pilots trained on the F16. The Kremlin
would know that they could be turned over to Ukraine as easily as not.

Putin doesn't care if 100K young men from the Altai Republic die or not. He
doesn't care if pensioners have to eat mice to live. Those silly sanctions doesn't
affect how much caviar he has on his next piece of toast, he doesn't care about
lives, or sanctions.

He does care about looking bad.

I wish the UK would be led by someone who would back up Ukraine more fully with support like this, but sadly I doubt Kier Starmer will ever be a man who can take decisive action and change the world for the better. Boris Johnson was more willing to step forward and lead where it needed it.

However, so long as Ukraine gets enough supply's and money to hold on I think Russia is done for. It looks like it's only a few months more war and Russia will be struggling to hold itself together never mind capture Ukraine.

Today at Davos Trump was focusing on hitting Russia economically to end the war:

http://www.euronews.com/business/2025/01/23/trump-at-davos-nato-5-push-tariff-warnings-for-europe

If oil prices to the west can be lowered by the Saudi's, etc then Russia will struggle more economically.

The biggest fear is if Trump tries to pressure Ukraine into a peace deal with Russia that gives Russia any land. Hopefully Trump won't do that or any other gameplay. I think there is a potential for a new FSU age on the horizon if the Russian Federation breaks up. Just think of all the choice of different ex-Federation States to visit as new countries! 

[krimster2]

yeah...just total lack of self-reflection

yeah...more or less...

[krimster2]

I think that what Trump was told to say was rather clever...
to go from an optimistic "24 hours" to, "really, it's up to Putin"
puts the ball firmly in Putin's court....
and Putin hasn't returned the serve
another "Russian Tell"

Trump/Zelensky...get rid of some sanctions
Putin...NYET! all Sanctions
I think Trump/Zelensky still want to have some kind of future leverage over Putin
can't see how they're gonna get that from him...give him WHAT in return....
nope...
sanctions are the "BIG THING" in the middle of the road thst's blocking it

I doubt Trump will have any problem blaming Democrats for NATO expansion
exonerating Putin, and blaming Democrats for forcing Putin to stop it
if he does that, and:
1. voting referendum like the one in Crimea to legalize the steal
2. no more sanctions
3. no more western weapons to ukraine
4. no war crimes

then it's PARTY TIME in the Kremlin
and don't forget to stop by the Marina at Lake Toropets Family Recreation Area
Russia's version of Amerikanski Crater Lake in Oregon!!

I'd like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony
and buy the world some cocainia in a market in Bolivia

watching Spetsnaz malchiky pass out in the mountains
while geezer has a wad of coca leaves and lime, aka "chaw"
kak de la?   hahahaha

old mining towns and camoflaged  narco submarine factories staffed by car mechanics and carpenters
OMG!!! WTF did I discover?

buenos dios amigos!!!!
badges?


chinese x-ray and gamma ray spectrometers are now as low as $2,500, but for how long I don't know
perfect for use all around Potosi or actually any place with mountains
I was kinda blown away finding copper and silver minerals in New Jersey of all places
using a hand-held x-ray spectrometer....

when I was in the Rand Mining District in southern California
I used a high power UV LED Light to hunt for Scheelite which is tungsten ore
I found quite a large amount
if I was living there, I could've made a business out of this....

In Ukraine, the area around Dnipro would be a great place to prospect this way lookin for Scandium
far Western Ukraine has MASSIVE amber fields, but they're controlled by local mafiyas that you don't wanna mess with
you'd have to find a new obscure territory that's remote, out of view

in the Desna river north of Kyiv
you can use a "gold dredge" to dredge little Uranium beads out of the river that settles down to bedrock
keep it in a lead cylinder...there's a "special radioaktiv market" you can sell or buy in Podil cross the Dnipr
usually only on weekends and holidays

[2tallbill]

If oil prices to the west can be lowered by the Saudi's, etc then Russia will struggle more economically.

The biggest fear is if Trump tries to pressure Ukraine into a peace deal with Russia that gives Russia any land. Hopefully Trump won't do that or any other gameplay. I think there is a potential for a new FSU age on the horizon if the Russian Federation breaks up. Just think of all the choice of different ex-Federation States to visit as new countries! 

Trump is going to do game play, he can't help it. He is going to spin horrible scenarios to
both sides to the point that going to the table to negotiate is the only thing that makes
sense.

[2tallbill]

Trump

[krimster2]

knee go she ate


as a god-fearing white Christian American Patriot...
IMHO...

whatever Putin wins...Zelensky loses
and whatever Zelensky wins, Putin loses
therefor, neither has a common interest

if Zelensky can't win, then his best strategy will be to minimize his losses
which means making concessions to Putin
if Trump cancels US sanctions will the EU do the same, otherwise it gives the USA a big trade advantage

this is not just a carrot, oh no my friends...this is a carrot farm...and tomorrow is harvest time....
all ye hungry rabbits gather 'round.....

what's sad, is ALL THIS was supposed to have happened WAY back in 2017 with Rex Tillerson
but it got derailed by Manafort

but, if all's well that ends well, Exxon Mobil will be back in the North Far East
earliest will be this summer
so i'm guessin maybe summer 2026

at that point, simple fer me to setup new "Patrons" both in the USA and Russia
and I can return to Russia
if I want....

I have a feeling, that if I saw health care there, I'd scream and run away
every time I'd go outside, I'd get paranoid that some veteran without legs was staring at me becuz Im a foreigner

so, cuz of that, I feel inclines to reside in my swamp
alligators are very easy to deal with
i'd like to have one as a pet, but it would eat all the other animals that live here
alligator jaws have a LOT of downward force, but very little upward force
you can hold their jaw shut and tape it if you want
the biggest one I've personally seen is about 6-7 feet long
not so fearsome...

there are feral pigs near where I live...they are GROSS!!!!!
a gazillion fleas and bugs flyin 'round 'em
shit smeared all over their back side
and as a God Fearin Christian, I must say they ARE DELICIOUS
especially on the B-B-Q...yee-ha ya'll!!!!

yeeeee-haaaaa
time fer som Earl Scruggs Foggy Mountain Breakdown!!!!!

http://youtu.be/z_Y3mnj-8lA

[2tallbill]

If oil prices to the west can be lowered by the Saudi's, etc then Russia will struggle more
economically.

That's an excellent point. The USA can do 1000 things to lower the global cost of energy.
Open the pipelines (XL pipeline). Open the drilling in Alaska and everywhere else in the
USA. Set up facilities to ship LNG to the EU and elsewhere.

All those things will cause the prices of carbon energy to plummet. It will cause inflation
to drop, but the problem is that it will all take time. People are being ground into hamburger
by this war as we speak. Doing all those things are great but I don't want to wait for 5 years
for the war to end (millions more will die).

[krimster2]

one of the ways we could lower the cost of carbon energy is by using less of it...
Supply/Demand

but..
you would not only LOWER the volume of oil traded
you would also LOWER it's price
and that's gonna REALLY eat into the profits and bonus checks when ya got all that fixed overhead to cover

OTOH...
the people who consume oil, would get it for less
but the people who sell oil will sell less of it, and sell it for less of a price
and make MUCH less profit

every $ of energy produced by renewables, is $1 less of the Fossil Fuel Industry

which would be just fine, if it was just one team vrs another
but it TOTALLY ignores global warming

for example, by the end of the next decade, Tangier Island, Virginia will be completely under water
and the people, who have lived there since the late 17th century, will become climate refugees, some already are
all along the Virginia coast line, salt water encroachment will effect small coastal family farms that've been there for generations

don't even consider what happens to these people
and that's just Virginia
on top of $250 billion fires and $100 billion Hurricaines
nor the fact that malaria and leprousy have had several cases in Southern Florida
in Texas you have West Nile
the warmer, the more pathogens move in


yeah...
let's not think about THAT

becuz the ONLY thing that is being THOUGHT ABOUT
is the bottom line of the oil giants


now, if your paycheck depended on it
are you willing to lie or do harm to the public
to continue getting paid?
think 1950s Cigarette Advertisers

is yur defense the same as the guards in a Koncentration Lager
you got a family to feed...ignoring the living skeletons in the background...

better ya tell me...than it is to St Peter...
if I were he...
what would yur words be to me?

well...ya see St Peter...
I put money before all else...becuz...I...uh...


 

[Trenchcoat]

Well Putler seems to be hoping that Trump will move to do a deal with him over Ukraine:

http://www.euronews.com/2025/01/25/putin-calls-for-a-meeting-with-trump-calling-him-clever-and-pragmatic

Trump has yet to respond, if he ever does.

Looks like Putler is kissing Trumps ass and angling at his America First approach to try and gain leverage and something useful to to him - likely sanctions being dropped by the looks of it. Putler is trying to make it look like Ukraine don't want to do a deal as an excuse for the US to drop sanctions.

Will Trump go for it?

Or will he decide it's not worth the bother and stand on the sidelines not supporting Ukraine with any more finance but also not supporting Russia by dropping sanctions or punting forth a peace deal to Ukraine.

Could go either way but possibly Trump isn't so bothered with doing a deal with Putler now. He potentially only has to wait a few months until major economic turmoil hits Russia and it's military at the front in Ukraine gets badly run down so much that it can no longer advance anywhere.

It is looking doubtful that Russia will ever take Pokrovsk, we're through most of Winter now and Russia seem unable to do a Bakhmut this time by leveling the city. Their artillery is running low and apparently they are sending men on crutches into battle as their manpower advantage starts to dwindle.

[ML]

Trench you are always predicting the deterioration of Russian military and Russian economy.

I think you are wrong on both counts.

[Trenchcoat]

Trench you are always predicting the deterioration of Russian military and Russian economy.

I think you are wrong on both counts.

You need to read the papers more ML

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-artillery-ammo-usage-practically-halved-oleksandr-syrskyi-depots-facilities-2025-1

I doubt it's going to take long at this rate for both the Russian economy & military to come undone. Ukraine is hitting Russia hard now and Russia has exhausted itself militarily and economically in its war in Ukraine. Ukraine's Commander in Chief is skilled and experienced and knows when and where to hit them. The war is tilting in Ukraine's favour and hitting the now exhausted Russians is going to hurt than bad. How much longer can Russian troops go on at the front until they lose all decent Armaments to attack Ukrainian forces with?

Russia's economy is in an equally bad way, with both inflation and interest rates high, both will take a terrible toll on the Russian economy. Russia has been spending out on the war with all its got and won't have much left.

Disagree if you like ML, but Russia is going to succumb both economically and militarily IF Ukraine holds on. A few more months and Russia will be in a very bad way that will be easy to tell by anyone in the West.

I am relishing the day when Russia busts up under the strain of it all! Not long now!

Russia is getting troops and stuff in from North Korea to help but the quantities are not large enough, North Korea is only a small country and the quality is poor of troops and Armaments. North Korea is up for disarmament and embarrassment in Ukraine also. They won't last long there and are only showing themselves as weak.

If Ukraine stays the course Victory is within its grasp.

[ML]

The one newspaper you referenced said:

"Ukraine's military chief says Russia has 'practically halved' artillery ammo usage after its production lines and depots were hit."

That doesn't qualify as reliable news source.

A Russian military guy is probably saying the same thing about Ukraine.

Russia is hitting Ukraine much harder (missiles, drones, artilliary, etc.) than Ukraine is hitting Russia.  And Russian hits are all over the area of Ukraine.

[Trenchcoat]

The one newspaper you referenced said:

"Ukraine's military chief says Russia has 'practically halved' artillery ammo usage after its production lines and depots were hit."

That doesn't qualify as reliable news source.

A Russian military guy is probably saying the same thing about Ukraine.

Russia is hitting Ukraine much harder (missiles, drones, artilliary, etc.) than Ukraine is hitting Russia.  And Russian hits are all over the area of Ukraine.

Those hits in Russia are going to have an effect. There's even video footage of the hits. That Ukrainian military chief has little reason to lie, when Russia was hitting Ukraine with 5 times the artillery shells that Ukraine was hitting Russia with they told it as is. A month or so ago Russia was reporting hitting Ukraine 1.5 times the artillery shells Ukraine was hitting Russian forces with, that's down a lot. Now that Artillery shell storage and production have been hit Russian is probably on similar shell firing to Ukraine if not a bit less.

The main bonus for Ukraine is that they have received a lot of Artillery and similar from the West with longer firing range, so they can take out Russian Artillery a lot more than Russia can take out theirs. Russia also has been recieving sub standard Artillery shells from North Korea and over firing it's Artillery pieces causing them to blow up destroying their own Artillery and crew.

Apparently at the moment Russia has lost 22,000 Artillery pieces in Ukraine, it's Soviet stockpiles are probably near out by now. Russia's sacrificed a lot of its Armaments and men to try to overwhelm and bully Ukraine into submission by throwing everything against them to try to get a breakthrough, instead they have exhausted themselves with this poor tactic.

Russia is hitting Ukraine hard with, missiles, drones, etc but many are taken out by defences, some get through and cause damage but Ukraine has limited weapon production capacity and most stuff comes from abroad. Most will be distributed fairly quickly and probably stored in smaller quantities and moved on quickly. In general Russia is again expending their energy throwing alm they've got at Ukraine and exhausting themselves producing and using up alm that stuff. At some point Russia is going to have next to nothing to throw at Ukraine. I would say that turning point is starting to happen now. The faster Russia uses up it's military resources to try and bully Ukraine into submission the faster that will happen. When it comes about probably in about 2-3 months or so if that then it will be apparent to all that Russia can no longer win the war in Ukraine and is out of ability to wage war in Ukraine. It will end up on the defensive out of practically all offensive and advancing ability and will just be sat their increasingly demoralised with troops and commanders fed up and wanting to pack it all in.

Russia is definitely not the force it started the war as and has been humbled into being a shadow of its former military might.

[krimster2]

under current conditions...russia has failed to take any significant amount of new Ukrainian territory in the last YEAR!!!
and the worst part about this is the fact that now Ukraine has laid massive mine fields and prepared "defense in depth"
that makes it certain that every future Russian attempt will end with the same frustrating failure

and...I say, and...
Putin HAS NOT restored the flow of water to The Crimean Canal System...

the conflict is now "frozen" figuratively and literally
whatever Russian assets that are dumped into the war doesn't add new territory
it just "holds the line"
talk about a "money pit"
internally, the war keeps the war factories runnin and the sanctions circumventors busy...
but everything else is figuratively and literally falling apart
Russia is eating itself to survive, the snake devouring it's own tail

all the indicators in the Russian Economy are blinking RED
in those conditions, the probability of an "economic catastrophe" happening are increasing

back in the early 80s, the Maryland State Prison System together with the University of Maryland  paid me $3 per hour to write a Fortran program that number crunched the data to predict when prison riots would occur
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophe_theory

now I do it in a spreadsheet cuz it's visual
and I can create programs to crunch the numbers just like before
difference is that with 40+ years more experience
I can actually write code better than I can talk to humans
my programs are poems...sonnets to Dr Knuth's Elegant Algorythms

I got Algorythm
who could ask fer anything more...

Putin's choice:
contineue the slaughter, but be willing to do it longer than ukraine (and try to cut-off Ukraine's weapons and money to tilt the game to his favor)
or look for an off-ramp to Nosanctionsville
or WMDs

can trump unilaterally remove russian sanctions - or does he need congress?
I thougt Yalta 2.0 would've been announced already...what's the holdup?

German cars are money pits, Trench
if ya'll were still in the EU, you coulda got cheaper parts...but...
any real Englishman would only drive a Triumph SpitFire in racing green (be still my foolish heart!)
a Triumph is "The mouse who roared"
then i'd pair it with an Italian Motorcycle - The Moto Guzzi 850 v-twin, shaft drive - painted matching racing green

I tried putting a sidecar on mine, but it pulled to the right, making it uncomfortable to ride, so I took it off
very comfortable, smooth runnin, sounding bike, great for long distance rides
rest of bikes were Yamahas
european elegance, vrs japanese functionality

[ML]

Russian war economy is probably having  the same effect as did the USA war economy during WWII.

And yes, there was a shortage of man power for USA factories which was taken up by woman power.  Same thing likely happening in Russia.

Overall, a lot of industrial capacity is being built up in Russia, same as happened in USA during WWII.

Lest anyone forget . . . I am pro Ukrainian to the 9th degree.  But I don't want to let myself be fooled by untruthful proclamations about how terrible things are going for Russia.

[krimster2]

oh NO!!!
things REALLY are terrible in the Russian economy!
at the war's current "burn rate" another year will see food rationing and frozen bank accounts in Russia

OTOH, Putin has never been closer to victory than he is RIGHT NOW
he's aleady half-way to cuttin Ukraine's military and economic supply lines from the USA/Europe...
and as the fossil fool industry roars back to life...
there's ole Pooty Poot sittin there on oceans of oil he's like to ship through the arctic to Europa
it just...
all wants to happen this way

next, Russians will start makin a list of politicians who are draggin their feet on sanctions
hint: look at Magninski Act Sponsors


PS
I'm thinking of "switching sides" from the middle class proletariat to AI/Human Pairs
having something like DeepSeek plugged into Apple's VR Headset



my belief is that people who are schitzophrenic and experience auditory "hallucinations" will more readily adapt
to a VR AI Agent that's always "ON"
I can talk to the AI and listen to it speak in a high quality Text To Speech Voice
everything I saw in star trek when I was 12, I now have
including a PHASOR!!!!
actually a 150 watt laser diode!!!!

the first AGI machines will cost in the tens of billions $$ to hundreds of billion $$$
these are to train and host the model
some will have their own small modular nuclear reactors for power
whoever owns and controls it
besides making a LOT of money from it
will also become one of the most powerful people in the world
and they will have "special access" that no one else has

in a couple of years, I should be able to host a chatGPT4 level model on my own hardware
and interact act with it through speech and vision

note: I got 50 mile range out of a used marine radar for yachts I bought from ebay
for the price of a PC
I added an LNA front-end and a much better, much lighter/efficient antenna

what's cool, is these radars are NOT narrow spectrum, like you'd expect
they're sread spectrum, frequency hopping, so a bunch of boats won't "jam," each other
also means Russians can't hear my signal

for the price of a PC..not bad
defend yur oblast
from drone blasts!
or fly at half mast


freedom scribbled on a Pripyat wall
it's like nigh-t and day

http://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fmural-in-the-post-office-prypiat-v0-6nf3pd9k41fc1.jpeg%3Fwidth%3D1080%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D5c0ba06feca6bf04f488f87d2313201bdb83470b
 
the only difference between Chernobil and any big city in Russia
is that they differ only by "some degree" and not that they're opposites
and over time, the smaller the difference becomes

until This Town is Coming Like a Ghost Town

[Trenchcoat]

I think the biggest bonus for the West is Ukraine's disarmament of the Russian military. Sounds terrible and I don't wish it on Ukrainian men and I had no sway it the matter, but it remains the case though that Ukrainian men risking their lives fighting the Russians is really saving Western men from risking their lives fighting the Russians. Once the Russian Army is out of its stockpiles and can't produce more very quickly and has run out of money to produce more and wage war they will be gone as a threat for a long time, if Russia breaks up then they may be gone as a threat permanently and the world will likely be a more peaceful, safer place. No need for big rearmament programs, etc.

Ukraine I feel is nearing the tipping point where they will likely start to see Russia's offensive ability in its Armaments decline at the front. Once that happens it should get easier and easier for Ukraine to sit tight, hold on and wait it out until Russia falls apart. That will be a great armchair event to see from home with Russia no longer a big player in the world or able to influence world events. No more bullying from Russia with their now puny army, no more swaggering around the world stage being courted by other world leaders, and no more troops on the ground elsewhere in the world. It looks like before long we could see a lot different picture happening out in Russia. Whatever happens Russia's economy is already screwed, it's back at a post Soviet 90s situation, all that improvement over the years largely gone. Pretty much all indicators of the Russian economy from interest rates through to inflation, to currency reserves, to debt, deficit and taxes, etc, etc are bad. Russia's economy is heading into a tail spin it won't be able to get out of for years whatever happens now. Russia or whatever it ends up as will be a miserable, depressed country. For Russia whatever the outcome in Ukraine, even if they get the destroyed land they occupy they are pretty much done for thank goodness.

[krimster2]

yesterday...was the 80th anniv of the Soviet Liberation of Auschwitz
The Great Patriotic War, is the bedrock of Russian kultura and identity since 1940s
instead of it being sacred, Putin hijacks it
and Putin uses it as a tool to manipulate and control the masses
so he calls his Ukrainian enemies a slur...a "fascista"
and let's the manufactured hate overrule reason
control what information people have access to
and you control how they think
repeat a lie...yada yada
similar minds have similar thoughts...n'est pas?


learn how to be FUNNY
also learn how to be kind and empathetic (instead of angry and bitter)
then increase yur level of random contact with wimmins

fer instance... learn to make souvlaki from honey (that he steals from poor insects)
and endup being halfway up the intimacy chart, instead of being none of the way (giving a woman food you made)
with some "enviornmentalist chick" or "nature girl"



sometimes, it's better to try and get what ya want "indirectly" instead of "directly"
delayed gratification and "what not"

but this implies that you're willin to do TWO THINGS

1. use yur head to make a plan
2. take action

if yur failin and flailing, it's becuz yur not doin these two things
and this is on top of bein able to figure out how to extract a fair amount of money from some "bizness"
and not be workin fer some other fool

if you have this...you be "stylin"' bro...
TV antenna in the back...against the White Walls stylin...
word!



Russians can't tell the difference between transistor and trans sister
so if ya hold up an ole magnavox portable AM radio from the 70s
and say "It has Eight transistors"
the Russian will say, "I have a brother"


now c'mon all ya big strong men
comrade putin got himself in a jam