The Struggle For Ukraine

[John Gaunt]

Thinking this through a bit more I reckon there could be pretty good chance Russia may invade. If Putin isn't going to get what he wants out of NATO then they've essentially called his bluff, if he is bluffing then he'll pull his troops away, that's going to cause him embarrassment though, possibly humiliation. In the summer he stuck more to the exercises excuse but this time he's been telling Ukraine/the west that they are there because of NATO's expansion as he see's it.  If he backs down and pulls troops this time for the second time he's lost and that manoeuvre won't work again unless he really does invade. So it may push him towards invading, Ukraine is essentially there for the taking now that NATO says it is going to stand by, so it's just the Russian army against Ukraine's army. Ukraine's army probably won't last long on that score. They've got arms and training from the west in recent years so may cause Russia's army some damage but ultimately they're a lot weaker than Russia's army.

Possibly Russia may wait to see if the mud will dry but odds are they could invade pretty soon. That's not great for me of course as if Ukraine becomes Russian I'll need to pay for a visa to visit. Belarus is difficult & more expensive to get to so that leaves just Georgia, pretty religious apparently and the stans further away so more time and expense there.

Trench, stop thinking....

[Chelseaboy]

Possibly Russia may wait to see if the mud will dry but odds are they could invade pretty soon. That's not great for me of course as if Ukraine becomes Russian I'll need to pay for a visa to visit. Belarus is difficult & more expensive to get to so that leaves just Georgia, pretty religious apparently and the stans further away so more time and expense there.

Have you thought about Serbia ?


English is widely spoken there.

[Trenchcoat]

Have you thought about Serbia ?


English is widely spoken there.

Nope, that's a good thought of yours on the surface of it CB. Serbia aren't in the EU and if they speak English then a viable option. Only problem is on Fdate they are very few women on there, only two in the 29-39 age category, non smoker, without children and with photo, and they've been on there a fair number of days ago.

Main problem at the moment is that I'm running out of women who I see as possiblities in Ukraine and that is if continues to exist as Ukraine. You'd think that they would be cramming onto Fdate with an economy which must be wreaked now because of the virus and with the Russians knocking at their door staring oblivion in the face, but no.

I can see the possibility of girls of the former Eastern Bloc countries coming back onto the market in future years now that the UK have left the EU and with the EU now struggling with its debt:

http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-plans-to-tax-its-way-out-of-recovery-debt/

Poland, Hungary and recently even Romania have been having fall outs with the EU. I think that now the money is running out and what amounts as further corporate taxes rise by the EU plus the realisation that it could take decades to make inroads into paying off the debt well good chance they'll leave. Even if not the desire to get in with a UK guy & the UK may be a bit of a pull.

For me I'll chomp on with Ukraine & Fdate for the time being. Keep thinking off VK but never really been able to utilise that one for dating to date.

[Jumper1]

If Russia takes ukraine by force, exactly how long until they take Belarus, czech rep,etc

[Trenchcoat]

If Russia takes ukraine by force, exactly how long until they take Belarus, czech rep,etc

Think the idea at the moment is if Russia take Ukraine then NATO will immediately move up a lot of its forces to the border of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and the Baltic States with Russia. Belarus is close enough aligned to Russia for Putin to not be too concerned there.

That will bring a new Iron Curtain down with it just being shifted further west than the old one. Once Russia takes Ukraine they probably won't want to give it up by negotiating with NATO for it to pull back it's forces. NATO will say it's in response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Russia won't likely attack the new line drawn in the sand as NATO forces will already be there.

Odds are under such a scenario is that Finland will join NATO also since if Ukraine is taken they will fear being next with history being what it is.

NATO of course will be committed to defending along that new iron curtain otherwise the risk is being pushed however far back Russia wishes. Who will come of the winner of there is one in such an event who knows. Like I say unlikely I think at least. Russia going into Ukraine there could be a fair chance of that happening as said earlier to my mind at least.

If the talks break down Russia could see it as their issues have not been resolved over NATO expansion, etc and invade Ukraine. Could be the real thing this time. Not sure how Ukrainian girls on the ground feel about it. They'll be in the firing line unless they can refugee it in time over the border to the EU especially now they have reasonably easy tourist visa free access.

[fathertime]

Think the idea at the moment is if Russia take Ukraine then NATO will immediately move up a lot of its forces to the border of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and the Baltic States with Russia. Belarus is close enough aligned to Russia for Putin to not be too concerned there.

That will bring a new Iron Curtain down with it just being shifted further west than the old one. Once Russia takes Ukraine they probably won't want to give it up by negotiating with NATO for it to pull back it's forces. NATO will say it's in response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Russia won't likely attack the new line drawn in the sand as NATO forces will already be there.

 

I do not think Russia is going to do very much in Ukraine, let alone the rest of the nations you mentioned.   

Fathertime!   

[Trenchcoat]

I do not think Russia is going to do very much in Ukraine, let alone the rest of the nations you mentioned.   

Fathertime!

Well according to latest thinking they reckon Russia could invade within days!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10404745/Fears-grow-Vladimir-Putin-stage-fake-attacks-troops-justify-Russian-invasion.html

So a false flag operation as a pretext to invade a bit like Japan's excuse to invade China before WWII. A recent cyber attack on Ukraine's government website signalling a possible prelude to an attack. Putin is now an old man at 69 years so I doubt he cares too much as he's only likely got so long left. NATO have essentially left Ukraine to be hung out to dry by not moving in troops so Putin may well take a gamble and see if it can be easily taken.

At the moment I'm messaging a Ukrainian girl who lives about in the middle of Ukraine. I've just messaged her back asking how she feels about the situation with Russian forces out there, not the most romantic message to send I guess but it's pretty relevant at the moment. I don't know if anyone here has any word from Ukrainians on the ground out there but I'm guessing it can't be a great feeling for them. Potentially at any point Russia could invade and all sh*t is likely to break loose. Russia is likely to give it all it's got including unleashing it's weapons of mass destruction onto both the Ukrainian army and the local population, huge big missiles, massive loss of life I'm guessing.

Western nations I think know that their own people won't support any NATO action in Ukraine certainly not by going to fight themselves or any children, family, etc of theirs. We don't have a cohesive or good enough society these days in which many people feel invested enough to stand up for and fight. A guy in western society looking around him today only has the offering of fat women, career women that are competing against him for jobs that he needs to make him worthy in the eyes of women, women having the upper hand in terms of family & divorce courts, etc. With all of that most guys will walk and I somehow doubt the career women will want to step into the breach even if only to pose for Instagram photos of themselves in combat gear. Nope Ukraine invasion and new iron curtain looks on the cards to my mind.

[Chelseaboy]

You can't blame western people for not being interested in fighting for Ukraine.


The only people who have any interest are a few blokes trying to avoid the pro-daters and scammers out there in finding a potential wife.


I wouldn't want my 23 year-old son being sent out there to fight and quite possibly get killed.


Are you going out there to fight Trench ?


I know a few Brits did when Russian separatists tried to take the Donbas region.


The only thing i feel the west ,and in particular the USA and UK ,have let Ukraine down with is the Budapest Memorandum as we're not honouring it by sitting on the sidelines.


I can imagine there'll be quite a few Ukrainian hotties heading for Poland .

[Davo]

I’ve chatted with a couple of Russian friends.... Both think Putin won’t cross the boarder and is just posturing for western attention....  He’ll keep playing war games on the border and it will eventually amount to a non-event.

[Boethius]

Why does he need Western attention?  This is all for internal consumption, not Western attention. 

[Davo]

Why does he need Western attention?  This is all for internal consumption, not Western attention.

You’re right, but I’ve seen enough state run tv to see he uses western media and events like the NATO summit on this issue as propaganda. He relies on western reactions to build a wall between his citizens and the west.

[Trenchcoat]

You can't blame western people for not being interested in fighting for Ukraine.


The only people who have any interest are a few blokes trying to avoid the pro-daters and scammers out there in finding a potential wife.


I wouldn't want my 23 year-old son being sent out there to fight and quite possibly get killed.


Are you going out there to fight Trench ?


I know a few Brits did when Russian separatists tried to take the Donbas region.


The only thing i feel the west ,and in particular the USA and UK ,have let Ukraine down with is the Budapest Memorandum as we're not honouring it by sitting on the sidelines.


I can imagine there'll be quite a few Ukrainian hotties heading for Poland .

I don't blame your son for not wanting to fight for my sex life in Ukraine CB

Seriously Ukraine was stupid to give up those Nukes, they wouldn't have lost Crimea or faced the problems in the Donbass or the threat of Russian Invasion had they not done so. Literally there was nothing to stop Ukraine from holding onto them they didn't have to agree but they are a foolish mistake and made their country a weakling as a result. As you rightly say the Budapest Memorandum is not being honoured is proving useless.

I won't be going out there to fight for Ukraine and I don't expect an other westerner too. The first girl I met in Kiev, a pretty and tall blonde girl from Mariupol told me she had no interest in it all, to her the civil war was all between oligarchs fighting for power. She had even asked me for a first class train ticket as she didn't want to mix with soldiers in second class lol. I did of course there was little difference to me and of course second class train travel out there is not great being often cramped with others, pretty much all natives. Anyhow I get the impression that a lot of the women won't stay around for loyalty sake out there, they'll most likely run to the EU border and over. My impression is their loyalty to men is not great our there and they tend to regard themselves as superior social status.

End of the day if Putin takes Ukraine then yes Ukrainian girl hotties in Poland who are displaced may be a good place to hunt I'm not sure how the EU is going to fair long term, they've taken on a lot of debt due to the virus so if member states become discontent who knows.

[Trenchcoat]

I’ve chatted with a couple of Russian friends.... Both think Putin won’t cross the boarder and is just posturing for western attention....  He’ll keep playing war games on the border and it will eventually amount to a non-event.

He pulled away last Summer but that was under the pretext that it was a 'training exercise' that and it sounds like he had some sanctions lifted so he could finish his oil pipeline, Nordstream.

This time the training exercise wasn't mentioned and he has stated his issues with NATO and has been kind of threatening military intervention. With NATO saying they will stand on the sidelines it kind of leaves him with an invite to invade almost. Unless Putin has something to walk away with he'll look weak and cowardly like he has lost. He won't want to keep doing that. NATO has basically sat still not giving him anything to walk away with and not moving in to protect Ukraine either.

Possibly he might be able to climb down slowly over time by moving troops away bit by bit but I'm not sure if withdrawing will be easy for him without something to show for it. Obviously NATO don't want to just give into his demands they need something in return but at the moment they are hanging Ukraine out to dry as not important enough to fight over, possibly not but it can't be very heartening for many Ukrainians.

I think both Russians and Ukrainians will have their own opinions with many probably thinking it won't happen because it hasn't done so before in the past three decades. I kind of think that is complacent thinking. Let's say Putin invades and he suffers the highly unlikely outcome that his forces do not do well, he's essentially got not a lot to lose, Russia is highly unlikely to lose any territory, hIs position may be at risk but he's getting on now anyway. On the opposite side if he wins and takes Ukraine, as is the likely outcome then he will be seen as securing his place in history for Russia and reverse some of the embarrassment of the loss of the USSR.

I'm guessing this is one for the bookies as at the moment it seems a real toss up.

[Trenchcoat]

One interesting thing about this all actually is why does Russia only have around 100,000 soldiers on Ukraine's border. Russia's army apparently amounts to more than a million soldiers. I'm not saying they couldn't accomplish it with the troops they have, Ukraine has a bit over 100,000 soldiers in all they can field but Russia has far greater weaponry. My guess is that Russia would focus on using their missiles to take out a lot of Ukraine's military before moving ground forces in so they wouldn't necessarily need a lot of troops. Still invading & holding a country I would imagine would be better to have a lot more ground troops at hand. I guess they can move more in later but still interesting that they haven't moved more in up front I'm thinking.

[Trenchcoat]

Just a late night thought. If this thing does kick off with Ukraine and Russia it could leave many single girls for us western guys as most soldiers are male. A terrible thought I know but we live in a world of uncertainty but also of logic. End of the day anything can happen to anyone.

Back in the day part of the MOB reasoning for more women to men was previous wars but as time passed that obviously became less so and reasons such as alcoholism, drugs, cold winter, general health/living standards, unemployment, crime, etc became more likely explanations. If this war does kick of proper then the the war element may once again take greater prominence.

Apparently the UK has just shipped some anti-tank rocket launcher stuff to Ukraine's army and is showing them how it all goes down. The Germans want no part in it and are refusing RAF flights over Germany, think it's the planes delivering the stuff. Guessing the Germans are nder the Russians thumb a bit with the new gas pipeline, etc.

[Davo]

There’s actually a shortage of women until age 40.

[Trenchcoat]

http://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/17/us/politics/russia-ukraine-kyiv-embassy.html

Russia moving out it's Embassy staff, I'm doubting this is just a bluff, could well be prelude to a Russian Invasion.

[Trenchcoat]

Some overall news of the situation:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10415817/amp/White-House-says-Russian-invasion-Ukraine-come-point.html

Apparently Ukraine is calling up 130,000 reservists to bolster it's existing troops so all to play for.

My guess is that I doubt Russia is doing all of this just over NATO expansion issues. They seem to be going a bit overboard for all of that if anything causing themselves a lot of ill-feeling over the all their activities. My bets are placed on this being the real thing. Likely when the ground hardens which will probably align with their preparations being complete they'll move in. So probably days to a week or two away.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukraine now has 251.000 troops and 900,000 reservists.


It's going to be a bloodbath for Putins troops if they invade,could be a Stalingrad in reverse for them.....although Sea and Air superiority will probably eventually see a Russian victory.


But at what cost to the Russian people and economy.?


Will be interesting to see what Poland does if Russia does invade Ukraine...there is no love for Russia there,and they are pretty close to the Ukrainians,and of course a false flag operation involving Poland would mean NATO having to put boots on the ground against Russia...that's all it takes and this is how situations escalate.


Could be why Germany is terrified of getting involved ..showing mad Vlad what good little citizens they're being for him.Sadly for them they'll have no choice if NATO does get involved.


Poland won't want to see Russian influence growing on their borders....and with all the unrest and turmoil within Belarus's population i'm not sure their troops will be up for getting involved.


The USA seems to think Putin is going to attack Kiev through Belarus.If so that would leave Russian troops exposed to any potential attacks on their rear from Polish troops and cutting them off.


By attacking Ukraine Putin could bring his worst fears to fruition,with NATO attacking Russia from many  positions.

[fathertime]

Ukraine now has 251.000 troops and 900,000 reservists.


It's going to be a bloodbath for Putins troops if they invade,could be a Stalingrad in reverse for them.....although Sea and Air superiority will probably eventually see a Russian victory.


But at what cost to the Russian people and economy.?

I believe had Russia wanted to attack Ukraine they would have done it very quickly and with surprise on their side.      Nowadays no large nation like Russia would allow itself to get into a war where they would suffer substantial casualties as it seems would be the case in Ukraine.   

Russia doesn't seem to be that desperate a nation, so there is little need to change the dynamics much, the US appears to be more desperate which begs the question of what is REALLY going on behind the scenes.
Fathertime!   

[GQBlues]

If Ukraine would like independence from Russia, they have the right to repulse Russia and fight & die for their independence. American kids need not die unnecessarily anymore for our politician and military complex's agendas. Ukraine's kids can and should die for their freedom.


Europeans want to monopolize additional market in Ukraine, like they involved us in Libya (that country is still a wasteland full of chaos and mayhem, while Europeans are skimming its oil).


I'm tired of this 21st century European colonialism. The difference between now and then is the US had become its mercenarial stooge to do the killing and dying for them.


Live DC conference about Ukraine..

[Boethius]

Ukraine already is independent.  So a Russian invasion would be an invasion of a sovereign nation.

[GQBlues]

Ukraine already is independent.  So a Russian invasion would be an invasion of a sovereign nation.

Great! They can then do whatever it takes to preserve it. This is NOT an American affair. No American should die for that cause. Not one..


Europe want to expand their market to support their unsustainable internal societal social programs, then they should sacrifice their kids for a change.

[GQBlues]

[Chelseaboy]

Great! They can then do whatever it takes to preserve it. This is NOT an American affair. No American should die for that cause. Not one..


Europe want to expand their market to support their unsustainable internal societal social programs, then they should sacrifice their kids for a change.

Doesn't the Budapest Memorandum make this a USA and UK affair ?


and no, as i've stated on here before, i don't want my 23 year-old son sent out there to fight.