Putin making noises about a declaration of war against Russia.

[ML]

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.
The memorandum included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

Note: The purpose of this brief is to remind us what the Budapest Memorandum does and does not contain.
Personally, I hope the USA will come to the aid of Ukraine militarily in a significant manner.
But this is not the same as proclaiming that the USA has an obligation under the Budapest Memorandum to do so.
In fact, a careful reading will reveal that the USA did not agree to take ANY action, other than:
- take the matter to the UN Security Council should Ukraine be attacked by nuclear weapons.

Lessons:

1) The Ukrainian officials who signed the Budapest Memorandum did a profound disservice to the Ukrainian people.
2) Because of what the world is witnessing with respect to Ukraine, we should not realistically expect that North Korea, Iran, et al will ever agree to give up nuclear weapons or cease trying to develop such.
3) Russians (from the very beginning) do not intend to abide by anything they say or sign.  Agreements (even in sports) are only to bind the other parties, not the Russians. They laugh at those who (continually) don't understand this.

According to the memorandum (5 December 1994), Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they would:

Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics.
Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

China and France gave security assurances for Ukraine in separate documents. China's governmental statement of 4 December 1994 did not call for mandatory consultations if questions arose but only for "fair consultations". France's declaration of 5 December 1994 did not mention consultations.

On 4 March 2014, the Russian president Vladimir Putin replied to a question on the violation of the Budapest Memorandum, describing the current Ukrainian situation as a revolution: "a new state arises, but with this state and in respect to this state, we have not signed any obligatory documents."

[Admin]

People here regularly mention those living under authoritarian governments are misled by government controlled media. The difference between those people and Americans is most of those people under authoritarian governments understand they are fed propaganda and most Americans still trust their media. Everyday for years we were fed the Trump Russia collusion hoax when no evidence existed. After tens of millions spent to investigate. Check my previous posts. I supported the investigation. Nothing was found so I realized the media duped us. Let's not be fooled twice. Our media isn't what it used to be. Who here fails to see that? They are currently feeding us propaganda. Now they are working up people's emotions to support a larger war. Seriously, who here wants this war to be much bigger than what it is now? How did we get to the point so many people WANT WW3 risking your family's lives and America's economy to teach Putin a lesson? Propaganda is a powerful tool.


QAnon does not exist. The media made it up. Google every media article on the subject. Look at the claims the media made about QAnon. Then read every post Q made on a forum. You'll then realize the media is lying.... again. Why are they so afraid of Q? People on this forum regularly attack Biden and the Democrats and they don't get hammered by CNN and the NY Times. People at this forum don't get their names mentioned by Democrats as high level as Hillary and Biden at the Democratic conventions accusing them of making up stories that Democrats are aliens sucking up the blood of children. People on this forum don't get the label RWDAnon to throw the public off and turn them off to RWD. Nobody here has said anything about Democrats that got them worried. Much of the Republican party is in bed with the Democrats. They aren't much better.

The Western media fails to tell us that Western nations are using Ukraine to create dangerous pathogens next door to Russia and Putin could be saving billions of lives if he's successful in shutting those labs down. How many here knew about those biolabs before I brought it up? You guys know what the media said. As proof, I linked a Ukraine webpage previously of a Ukrainian biolab studying the plague and stating where their funding comes from, George Soros being one of the donors.

Check every Western media factcheck and they call the biolabs disinformation. The media is lying to us on most things about this war. Sure, they can tell us the truth about the weather and sports but when it comes to politics, trust nothing they say, especially now since they are working on our emotions to promote support for an escalation of the war in Ukraine. Under the circumstances, supporting escalation of this war to get achieve peace isn't going to work.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/02/25/fact-check-claim-us-biolabs-ukraine-disinformation/6937923001/

Billy, I trust MY interpretation of the media sources I reference to aid me with MY understanding of world events. I may be wrong or misled, but that's MY choice. In fact, it has come to my attention that Trump is really the deepest of deep-state members, leading all the way back to his grandfather with connections to German banking. If I am 'disappeared' after posting this you will know it is true. There are no authorities to tell because they are all in on it. Sheez!

Stop proselytizing!

[Chelseaboy]

Remind me what happened to the UK army when they tried to defend France
from Germany before they were prepared to do so.

The USA needs 6 or more months of literally moving mountains to be able to
defend Ukraine. (If it were Mexico we could be there tomorrow). Otherwise we
would be looking at Dunkirk and jumping into a fight unprepared is totally
unacceptable.

How long would it take for the B-52's and F-15's based in the UK to reach Ukraine ?

UK fighters could support too...and all the rest of the European countries .

That 40 mile convoy of Russian troops and armour rolling toward Kiev would be a good target for a start.


Ukraine doesn't need ground support and they're not asking for it..it needs air support..which makes all your arguments about 6 month delays in getting USA troops over there irrelevant.


You say you love Ukraine and have Ukrainian friends but you're content that we sit by and watch the country get flattened..look what he's doing to Kharkiv..what's he going to do to Kiev and Odessa ?


If we're too terrified that Mad Vlad might push the red button in response that's a different story...but let's not hear excuses that it will take too long for our military being able to help Ukraine.


One other thing ..if we're sooo scared that Mad Vlad might Nuke us ..well he might decide to do that anyway on some pretext he's thought up...at anytime.


He's already threatened us twice since he invaded Ukraine.


For all we know he could be planning to Nuke the USA  for the comments made by Lindsey Graham ...he's unhinged enough.


Do we all want to live in fear,while he does what he wants, until he eventually dies or do we call his bluff and stand up to him ?


Personally i'd rather have those amazing Ukrainian troops fighting by our side..rather than losing them to Russian air strikes while we sit by and wring our hands.


If he invades Latvia,Estonia,Poland or Lithuania which will force our hand into confronting him we're going to seriously regret not saving Ukraine.

[2tallbill]

How long would it take for the B-52's and F-15's based in the UK to reach Ukraine ?

UK fighters could support too...and all the rest of the European countries .

That 40 mile convoy of Russian troops and armour rolling toward Kiev would be a good target for a start.


Ukraine doesn't need ground support and they're not asking for it..it needs air support..which makes all your arguments about 6 month delays in getting USA troops over there irrelevant.


You say you love Ukraine and have Ukrainian friends but you're content that we sit by and watch the country get flattened..look what he's doing to Kharkiv..what's he going to do to Kiev and Odessa ?


If we're too terrified that Mad Vlad might push the red button in response that's a different story...but let's not hear excuses that it will take too long for our military being able to help Ukraine.


One other thing ..if we're sooo scared that Mad Vlad might Nuke us ..well he might decide to do that anyway on some pretext he's thought up...at anytime.


He's already threatened us twice since he invaded Ukraine.


For all we know he could be planning to Nuke the USA  for the comments made by Lindsey Graham ...he's unhinged enough.


Do we all want to live in fear,while he does what he wants, until he eventually dies or do we call his bluff and stand up to him ?


Personally i'd rather have those amazing Ukrainian troops fighting by our side..rather than losing them to Russian air strikes while we sit by and wring our hands.


If he invades Latvia,Estonia,Poland or Lithuania which will force our hand into confronting him we're going to seriously regret not saving Ukraine.

You have vastly oversimplified the problems at hand to the point of being
ridiculous. Sidenote: 33 B52's were shot down in Vietnam using 1960's
technology.

What have I said that makes you think that I am content with the invasion?

I'm sure that if the US offered to institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine, Ukraine would have no problem agreeing to allow the US to establish an airbase in western Ukraine somewhere. (or use the existing airport in Lviv.) 

Ukraine can't protect a forward airbase in Lviv anymore than they can protect
themselves thus necessitating the huge buildup of men, munitions and materiel. 
Flying aircraft sorties attacking Russian troops would bring on immediate
attacks that neither the US nor Ukraine is currently able to defend against.

What you are asking is for the USA to start WWIII because of loved ones
there. There is not a single NATO country who would be in favor of doing
what you ask.

Maybe we could give planes to Ukraine to have their pilots fly.

[Chelseaboy]

You have vastly oversimplified the problems at hand to the point of being
ridiculous. Sidenote: 33 B52's were shot down in Vietnam using 1960's
technology.

What have I said that makes you think that I am content with the invasion ?

So if B-52's are so ineffective ,what's the point in stationing them in the UK for the benefit of NATO ?


Sounds like they may as well be scrapped if so..and save on maintenance costs.


I didn't say you were content with the invasion..i'm sure you're as appalled as anyone with any human decency.


I said you were content with NATO standing by and doing nothing in response.

[BC]

So if B-52's are so ineffective ,what's the point in stationing them in the UK for the benefit of NATO ?

Answer: Official version they are part of a military exercise.  Unofficial version nuclear deterrent, as they are qualified for carrying nuclear weapons.  Not all aircraft are nuclear-capable.

[Chelseaboy]

They're not a very good Nuclear deterrent if they're shot down so easily.


From what Bill was saying they'd never reach their destination and they're more likely to crash into another country after being shot down and Nuke them !!


If you're in Norway,Sweden or Finland you wouldn't want them flying anywhere near you would you ?

[BC]

They'll act as a mop-up crew.  By then nuke missiles will have hit their target wiping out a lot of air defense capabilities, radar, and such.

By then, we'll have already put our heads between our knees and kissed our asses goodbye, praying for a direct strike.  I doubt many will want to live in a post-apocalyptic world.  I wouldn't.

[Patagonie]

You have vastly oversimplified the problems at hand to the point of being
ridiculous. Sidenote: 33 B52's were shot down in Vietnam using 1960's
technology.

What have I said that makes you think that I am content with the invasion?



Ukraine can't protect a forward airbase in Lviv anymore than they can protect
themselves thus necessitating the huge buildup of men, munitions and materiel. 
Flying aircraft sorties attacking Russian troops would bring on immediate
attacks that neither the US nor Ukraine is currently able to defend against.

What you are asking is for the USA to start WWIII because of loved ones
there. There is not a single NATO country who would be in favor of doing
what you ask.

Maybe we could give planes to Ukraine to have their pilots fly.

Worse: The Russian Federation owns S400 SAM, a deadly umbrella.

[Trenchcoat]

Mad Vlad has said the number of western sanctions against Russia over Ukraine is akin to a
declaration of war against Russia.


If that's his thinking should NATO now be thinking "ok if that's what he thinks we might as well go in and obliterate his military and save Ukraine "?

Putin apparently followed on after, "but thank God it has not come to that".

Though of course he told the German Chancellor that he did not wish for war then went ahead with a war.

I personally don't think Putin will attack the west at least not if we don't militarily intervene in Ukraine. War against NATO is not winnable by Russia, not only we have a strong army but we also have Nukes etc. Hell if the Russian army is having trouble getting up the road just a few miles in from their border it doesn't leave them with much hope for conquering all of Europe lol.

I personally think sod it, if Putin wants to threaten war or even have war on the west over sanctions then let him go do it. I don't think we should feel bullied into trading with someone we don't wish to, that's our choice and we shouldn't back down from that.

I don't think though we should respond with military intervention its in our hands not to so let's not give Putin the gift he seeks or anyone else by being dragged into this conflict. Again it's in our power not to get involved in military intervention and hence war for ourselves. It kind of irks me when I hear random sporadic politicians pushing for it as if it's in the cards. It's really not and yes we can avoid it if we just keep calm and not be impulsive. We have to remember this isn't our fight, it's for Russians and Ukrainians to fight it out among themselves and we're best of keeping our of it and not having random politicians talk us into war.

[2tallbill]

So if B-52's are so ineffective ,what's the point in stationing them in the UK for the benefit of NATO ?

They are excellent at killing goat herders and the camel dung markets
in Krapistan. They are not a match for hand held sams and other antiaircraft
missiles.

I didn't say you were content with the invasion..i'm sure you're as appalled as anyone with any human decency.

I said you were content with NATO standing by and doing nothing in response.

That's a false dichotomy/false dilemma fallacy of reasoning. Either we do nothing
or we start WWIII and NATO goes berserk. Germany, France and many others
will leave NATO. Don't forget about the US Congress which has to vote to wage
war against Russia. I don't know what the UK would do or the process there,
does the Queen weigh in, or the Prime minister? Let me know. 

Another option, we can send them jets, javelin fire and forget antitank missiles,
stinger missiles and other useful aid so they can better defend themselves.   

There is no excellent option that I can think of at this date.

[Boethius]

The Western media fails to tell us that Western nations are using Ukraine to create dangerous pathogens next door to Russia and Putin could be saving billions of lives if he's successful in shutting those labs down. How many here knew about those biolabs before I brought it up? You guys know what the media said. As proof, I linked a Ukraine webpage previously of a Ukrainian biolab studying the plague and stating where their funding comes from, George Soros being one of the donors.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/02/25/fact-check-claim-us-biolabs-ukraine-disinformation/6937923001/

1.  Soros was booted out of Ukraine before the Orange Revolution.  So he isn't funding anything there.


2.  Your prior link to a lab in Odesa was not to a weapons lab. 


3.  The only people making the claim there are biolabs in Ukraine are Russia, which started this in 2020, and more recently, China.  A thinking person would question why Russia is making such claims, rather than linking Russian source telegram accounts and would recognize this as a false flag operation - disinformation for useful idiots and the gullible.


4.  QAnon is not organized, but it does exist.  My kids, to amuse themselves durilng lockdown, registered on the QAnon website and used to troll them, so expertly (mostly about invermectin and vaccines), that the posters thought their "ideas" were absolutely brilliant.

[Jumper1]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. /sarcasm

Supposedly Ukraine didn't have the  people, planes, tanks, beans and bullets in place to have any chance of surviving more than 72 hours either.  It was a foregone conclusion by both East and West that Ukraine didn't have a chance.

The US would not be invading a hostile country, like D-Day and Desert Storm if we instituted a no-fly zone over Ukraine.  And yes, we DO have 200,000 troops already in place with tanks, artillery, and infantry...200,000 Ukrainian troops who are already fighting the Russians.

I'm sure that if the US offered to institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine, Ukraine would have no problem agreeing to allow the US to establish an airbase in western Ukraine somewhere. (or use the existing airport in Lviv.)  Moldova is scared Russia plans to invade them next.  Do you think Moldova would have any problem with the US having an airbase there?  Latvia and Lithuania are worried Russia might try to take them back under Soviet control.  Do you think they would have a problem with a US airbase?

F-22 Raptors could be based all over Europe and be able to cover Ukraine, especially with refueling tankers.

Moldova is scared because it has a  constant reminder ,Transnistria since 1992.
The 14th battalion of the.Russian army is stationed there ever since it helped the.seperatist( this  should sound like a familiar game play). Break a section of the country off.

Russua pours 20.million euro into that little sliver of land between Moldova and ukrsine.annually, allegedly 70% of the regions budget.
Its obviously very strategically important to Russua and as such this is equally concerning to NATO as putins claims of his own nations security concerns .


Perhaps before his news sound bites he should look at a map of his  countries holding in Europe and offer them.up since they are indeed serious  security threats to EU nations.(especially kaliningrad)

His hard stance is ridiculous in.light of nuclear capable missles  in kaliningrad.

[2tallbill]

Worse: The Russian Federation owns S400 SAM, a deadly umbrella.

Moldova is scared because it has a  constant reminder ,Transnistria since 1992.
The 14th battalion of the.Russian army is stationed there ever since it helped the.seperatist( this  should sound like a familiar game play). Break a section of the country off.

I said it was very complicated because it is.

Thank you both for pointing out the factors as to why the USA is
not prepared to defend Ukraine. Ukraine is mostly indefensible from
a terrain/geography standpoint. Look at Russian troops in Moldova,
Belarus, the Black Sea, Crimea and Russia itself. Russia can attack
from nearly every point on the compass.

There is no secure place for an airforce/airport to provide close ground
support for their army or to attack/repel invaders.



Imagine Russia having the very deadly S400 SAM system in each of the places
that Russia has troop concentrations, you can see the difficulty that anyone
would have enforcing any sort of "no fly zone"

It would be the West's no fly zone, rather than Russian.

In addition keeping the Polish border relatively open is extremely valuable
for Ukraine. If Russia were to rush to the border, it would be far more difficult
for civilians to escape or to get valuable supplies both military and humanitarian
into Ukraine.

Russia doesn't want Russian troops close to the Polish border because of the
chances of escalation increase exponentially when opposing armies are in
such close proximity to each other.

Udachi!

Bill

[Stirlitz]

How many young Americans do you want to sacrifice for this? The USA doesn't have the ability to protect Ukrainians in Ukraine. We would need to move half a million troops to Europe to have a chance and we would always be outnumbered, traveling further, logistics would be a nightmare and it would take months and months just to get people and war materials on location.

You don’t need to move ground troops to establish a no fly zone. It is rockets that are needed. How did you set up this zone in Iraq? I don’t think it was too costly in terms of American casualties was it?

The Russians are not camel herders who have sex with goats behind sand dunes. They
have 900K in their army and 2 million in the reserves 99% of them
are in Europe right now.

Well, actually they ARE.

We are actually surprised a lot here to see them in their shabby tanks wearing Soviet steel helmets and having other obsolete equipment in a bad state. We call them bomjaheds (bomj + mojahed, where bomj is an abbreviation that stands for без определённого места жительства (without any permanent abode) and basically means a bum, a slovenly person hanging around, and mojahed is an Afghan fighter). The truth is that Russia spends crazy money for propaganda and a lot of money for the army but 99% of it is embezzled.

To be true, we had not expected that themselves. For the first couple of days some here were scared that we deal with the worst part of the Russian army, and the elite troops are to come. Now we realize that it WAS the elite troops.

As for the numbers, I have always said that one true free Kozak is worth a hundred moskali (Russian enlisted men). Freedom fighters who defend their country fight much better than cannon fodder driven to death by stupid commanders who cannot care less how many of their soldiers die. One thousand dead Nazis a day is typical for the last two weeks in Ukraine.

[2tallbill]

You don’t need to move ground troops to establish a no fly zone. It is rockets that are needed. How did you set up this zone in Iraq? I don’t think it was too costly in terms of American casualties was it?Well, actually they ARE.

I answered this question from a different member. With Iraq, The USA could
launch airplanes from carriers from three different places, the Med, the Red
Sea and the Persian Gulf. They could do this with relative safety as the US
Navy is very difficult to attack.

There is no similar body of water to do this near Ukraine. The planes would
have to be land based and we would have to fly over Russian positions to
do this from every direction but the West.

Right now the Western route is relatively open for sending munitions,
materiel and supplies to Ukraine. If we started flying sorties from the
West, it would cause Russia to close this off at all costs. Once Americans
and Russians start shooting at each other, WWIII actually begins.

Sadamn Insane did not have the same technology for SAMS that Russia
does. It would get costly in terms of lives very quick.

I think that Putin underestimated Ukrainians. I don't know why anyone
would do that. Ukraine has a very long history of fighting very heroically
dating back countless centuries. Surely, they had history books back when
Putin went to school.

[2tallbill]

Well, actually they ARE.