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Author Topic: Ukraine is losing the war  (Read 129385 times)

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Offline Muzh

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To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead. Thomas Paine - The American Crisis 1776-1783

Offline jone

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #226 on: January 26, 2015, 05:41:57 PM »
Pretty intense.  But not half as bad as Mariupol this past week.
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lordtiberius

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #227 on: January 26, 2015, 08:24:44 PM »
Pretty intense.  But not half as bad as Mariupol this past week.

Not worth going to war over .. .

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #228 on: January 28, 2015, 03:33:09 PM »






I was browsing the internet and found this interesting piece...a part discusses  some of the finer points/mistakes that Poroshenko has made and haven't been discussed here.  Here is a little excerpt:








Instead, Poroshenko had Ukraine's parliament rescind a law that had committed the country to military neutrality and announced its formal intention to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This was a [/size]serious misstep[/color][/size] that made a return to war all but inevitable. If one thing is clear in this contest, it is that [/color][/size]Putin will not[/color][/size] -- and politically cannot -- make peace without some form of public assurance that Ukraine won't join NATO.[/color][/i]






http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-28/sorry-ukraine-you-can-t-beat-putin?cmpid=yhoo
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline Boethius

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #229 on: January 28, 2015, 04:26:54 PM »
The article is factually inaccurate.
The war was in full swing when Ukraine decided to change its non aligned status.  If Russia stated "We will withdraw all support for the terrorists, and ensure they receive no weapons from Russia.", I suspect NATO membership would not be an issue.  Russia drove Ukraine to seek NATO membership, something which, until this conflict, was deeply unpopular in Ukraine.
 
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #230 on: January 28, 2015, 04:45:13 PM »
The article is factually inaccurate.
The war was in full swing when Ukraine decided to change its non aligned status.  If Russia stated "We will withdraw all support for the terrorists, and ensure they receive no weapons from Russia.", I suspect NATO membership would not be an issue.  Russia drove Ukraine to seek NATO membership, something which, until this conflict, was deeply unpopular in Ukraine.


It seems it is these 2 paragraphs that you are disputing the accuracy of:

Putin had demonstrated that Ukraine's military simply isn't capable of standing up to Russian regulars, and that his tanks could indeed roll on to Odessa if he chose to give the order. In return for stopping, though, he expected Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to sue for a political settlement of the conflict, beyond the localized Minsk cease-fire.
[/size][/color]Instead, Poroshenko had Ukraine's parliament rescind a law that had committed the country to military neutrality and announced its formal intention to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This was a serious misstep that made a return to war all but inevitable. If one thing is clear in this contest, it is that Putin will not -- and politically cannot -- make peace without some form of public assurance that Ukraine won't join NATO.[/i][/size][/font]
[/size][/color][/font]
[/size][/color][/font]
[/size][/color][/font]
[/size][/color][/font]
[/size][/color]FT here again:....Is there something wrong with the sequence of events?  Obviously this man is editorializing, but his timeline seems to be correct...although I'd have to go back and review when the cease-fire broke down in earnest.[/font]
[/size][/color][/font]
[/size][/color]Fathertime!    [/font]
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline Boethius

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #231 on: January 28, 2015, 04:59:37 PM »
The ceasefire was broken almost immediately after it was signed (by the so called "rebels").  For all intents and purposes, there was no ceasefire.  The NATO intent did not occur until late December.  So yes, his timeline is out of whack.  Seriously out of whack.   So much so, I don't think his argument can be taken seriously.  Moreover, I don't know if the NATO impetus came from Poroshenko, or if it came from the Rada initially.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #232 on: January 28, 2015, 05:20:04 PM »
The ceasefire was broken almost immediately after it was signed (by the so called "rebels").  For all intents and purposes, there was no ceasefire.  The NATO intent did not occur until late December.  So yes, his timeline is out of whack.  Seriously out of whack.   So much so, I don't think his argument can be taken seriously.  Moreover, I don't know if the NATO impetus came from Poroshenko, or if it came from the Rada initially.




  I have a link here dated Sept 26 that is already discussing Ukraine's cabinet bringing legislation for NATO membership.  Sure a decision would be made later, but clearly the ball was rolling at that point.  I'm concluding that the author of the initial article thought it was a mistake for Poroshenko to not tell them it would be vetoed.   With this on the table, I don't think the author's timeline is out of whack....although perhaps you have something to enlighten.


Here is the Sept. 26 link about Ukraine and NATO:
[size=78%]http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-26/ukraine-can-t-afford-nato[/size]


Fathertime!   




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Offline Boethius

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #233 on: January 28, 2015, 05:25:55 PM »
That Rada was replaced as Ukraine held elections in October.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #234 on: January 28, 2015, 06:48:39 PM »
That Rada was replaced as Ukraine held elections in October.


I don't see how that is pertinent to what was discussed earlier.  I can see disagreeing with the Bloomberg writer's opinion, but I still don't see any reason to discredit his intelligence of the situation.


Fathertime!   
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline Boethius

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #235 on: January 28, 2015, 07:05:17 PM »

I don't see how that is pertinent to what was discussed earlier.  I can see disagreeing with the Bloomberg writer's opinion, but I still don't see any reason to discredit his intelligence of the situation.


Fathertime!


Given that in September, it was known that everyone sitting was going to be replaced, Rada and cabinet decisions had zero weight.  So, the position in September had no bearing on the Minsk Agreement, or Putin's position.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #236 on: January 28, 2015, 08:11:04 PM »

Given that in September, it was known that everyone sitting was going to be replaced, Rada and cabinet decisions had zero weight.  So, the position in September had no bearing on the Minsk Agreement, or Putin's position.

Prior to the new election the Rada (in September) had proposed legislation to join NATO.  At that point in time, the author mentions the cease fire unraveled completely.  I recognize that the Rada was to be replaced shortly after, but meanwhile NATO was the direction things appeared to be headed (from Ukraine's viewpoint).  So I'm still concluding that the author was not being ignorant when he used that as a foundation in forming his viewpoint.


Fathertime!   
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline AC

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #237 on: January 28, 2015, 08:18:50 PM »
Prior to the new election the Rada (in September) had proposed legislation to join NATO.  At that point in time, the author mentions the cease fire unraveled completely.  I recognize that the Rada was to be replaced shortly after, but meanwhile NATO was the direction things appeared to be headed (from Ukraine's viewpoint).  So I'm still concluding that the author was not being ignorant when he used that as a foundation in forming his viewpoint.


Fathertime!

All this talk of Ukraine wanting to join NATO is foolish at this stage.  Maybe someday, but I don't know when.

This article is better than yours and more recent.


http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-28/sorry-ukraine-you-can-t-beat-putin

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #238 on: January 28, 2015, 08:24:18 PM »
All this talk of Ukraine wanting to join NATO is foolish at this stage.  Maybe someday, but I don't know when.

This article is better than yours and more recent.


http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-28/sorry-ukraine-you-can-t-beat-putin


Perhaps you didn't notice but this is the original  article I linked in response #228 on this thread.....and yes I do agree it is a good article!  :D
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline AC

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #239 on: January 28, 2015, 08:26:48 PM »

Perhaps you didn't notice but this is the original  article I linked in response #228 on this thread.....and yes I do agree it is a good article!  :D

Whoops!  My bad.  Thanks for pointing out the obvious.  I need a nap.   ;D

Offline Boethius

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #240 on: January 28, 2015, 09:00:26 PM »
Prior to the new election the Rada (in September) had proposed legislation to join NATO.  At that point in time, the author mentions the cease fire unraveled completely.  I recognize that the Rada was to be replaced shortly after, but meanwhile NATO was the direction things appeared to be headed (from Ukraine's viewpoint).  So I'm still concluding that the author was not being ignorant when he used that as a foundation in forming his viewpoint.


Fathertime!


There was never a ceasefire that had been adhered to by the rebels, so that argument is a non starter from the outset.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline mendeleyev

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #241 on: January 29, 2015, 02:40:26 AM »
The writer's timeline is way off.

The Rada passed the bill in December. Poroshenko signed it just prior to the end of the year. 

Even RT got this one right: When asked if his signing the bill meant that Ukraine would hold a referendum on NATO membership sometime in 2015, Poroshenko replied that the parliament, "will deliberate on that in five or six years.”

 He also told reporters that Ukraine would first have to meet a series of reforms, over the next several years, in order to meet EU, and possible NATO, standards.

As Bo said, the rebels had already broken the cease fire long before.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2015, 02:42:19 AM by mendeleyev »
The Mendeleyev Journal. http://mendeleyevjournal.com Member: Congress of Russian Journalists; ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.RU (Journalist-Russia); ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.UA (Journalist-Ukraine); ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.KZ (Journalist-Kazakhstan); ПОРТАЛ ЖУРНАЛИСТОВ (Portal of RU-UA Journalists); Просто Журналисты ("Just Journalists").

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #242 on: January 29, 2015, 08:11:42 AM »

There was never a ceasefire that had been adhered to by the rebels, so that argument is a non starter from the outset.


Well cease fires are hard to control completely, there often are a few guys that don't adhere..especially under these circumstances....but if there were no major offensives that might be considered reasonable enough.




The writer's timeline is way off.

The Rada passed the bill in December. Poroshenko signed it just prior to the end of the year. 

Even RT got this one right: When asked if his signing the bill meant that Ukraine would hold a referendum on NATO membership sometime in 2015, Poroshenko replied that the parliament, "will deliberate on that in five or six years.”



There may be valid arguments to make but I don't think this is a valid argument because AT THE TIME when Russia was presumably making decisions these were UNKNOWNS.  Sure in December things like this were decided, but back in September nobody know what would be decided, what was known was Ukraine was making a push to become a part of NATO. 


Fathertime!   
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Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #243 on: January 29, 2015, 08:15:52 AM »
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-warns-west-catastrophe-over-ukraine-140104727.html


Here is a brief article which of course is self-serving (for Russia), but probably also contains some truth.  The main crux of I agree with, we (the west) should be encouraging Ukraine to negotiate...not fight...the end result will  be more misery...and the more they fight the more Russia seems to take...Try something different.


Fathertime!   
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Offline AkMike

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #244 on: January 29, 2015, 08:21:57 AM »
Negotiate and lose part of the country to invaders from the north?

 I'm sure that Sitting Bull was all over that idea too

Offline mendeleyev

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #245 on: January 29, 2015, 12:38:32 PM »
FT Neville, you are grasping at any straw, any little piece of half-truth to get Russia off the hook.

Why go to such lengths?
« Last Edit: January 29, 2015, 12:40:58 PM by mendeleyev »
The Mendeleyev Journal. http://mendeleyevjournal.com Member: Congress of Russian Journalists; ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.RU (Journalist-Russia); ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.UA (Journalist-Ukraine); ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.KZ (Journalist-Kazakhstan); ПОРТАЛ ЖУРНАЛИСТОВ (Portal of RU-UA Journalists); Просто Журналисты ("Just Journalists").

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #246 on: January 29, 2015, 01:20:32 PM »
FT Neville, you are grasping at any straw, any little piece of half-truth to get Russia off the hook.

Why go to such lengths?
Mendeleyev, why are you questioning my motives and calling me names instead of discussing the issue?

I don't think Russia is 'on the hook' any more than Ukraine.  I've read many, many half-truths emanating from people with a different viewpoint than me.

  I don't view the article I linked as a half-truth and I don't know why you do. Fighting doesn't appear to be working as Russia continues to escalate and more are killed.   It is reasonable to consider what it will take to end this, and I'm not yet convinced it will be all of Ukraine, as you are.

Fathertime!
« Last Edit: January 29, 2015, 01:22:30 PM by fathertime »
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Offline Boethius

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #247 on: January 29, 2015, 03:20:35 PM »
Quote
I don't view the article I linked as a half-truth and I don't know why
you do. Fighting doesn't appear to be working as Russia continues to escalate
and more are killed.   It is reasonable to consider what it will take to end
this, and I'm not yet convinced it will be all of Ukraine, as you are.

The article was less than a half truth, because it presented flawed information as an irrefutable fact. 
Poroshenko has stated on numerous occasions that fighting will not end this conflict, that a negotiated settlement is required.  However, Russia is not interested in a true negotiated settlement.  If it were, this dispute would have been resolved in September.
 
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline fathertime

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #248 on: January 29, 2015, 05:06:26 PM »
The article was less than a half truth, because it presented flawed information as an irrefutable fact. 
Poroshenko has stated on numerous occasions that fighting will not end this conflict, that a negotiated settlement is required.  However, Russia is not interested in a true negotiated settlement.  If it were, this dispute would have been resolved in September.


Poroshenko has SAID things like that numerous times, but we really don't know what, if anything he is offering.  It seems clear to me that whatever it was, Russia didn't think it was enough. 


I re-read the article it does NOT present information as 'irrefutable fact'.  I have no idea what you have read into the article....it merely reports the Russian statements and doesn't make a judgement.  That is a lot different than saying 'everything is verified and true.


Fathertime!   
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Offline BillyB

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Re: Ukraine is losing the war
« Reply #249 on: January 29, 2015, 05:16:22 PM »

Poroshenko has stated on numerous occasions that fighting will not end this conflict, that a negotiated settlement is required.



Poroshenko did believe fighting would end the conflict but after realizing his military is no match for thugs assisted by a few thousand Russian soldiers and realizing Europe and possibly America will not use military means, only sanctions, to confront Russia, he understands he must negotiate with Russia or risk losing everything. There's no reason for Putin to negotiate since Putin knows Ukraine is his. The West made it clear on the type of punishment they will and will not use on Russia. Putin's willing to put up with the sanctions. NATO/America's military is the only thing that could stop him.


"Germany and EU partners have ruled out a military response to the conflict.

Earlier EU foreign ministers proposed that the bloc extend asset freezes and travel bans on individuals deemed responsible for hostilities in eastern Ukraine."


http://news.yahoo.com/eu-respond-large-military-offensive-ukraine-steinmeier-183330622--business.html
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