More Bad News for Russia

[JayH]

​Sorry, Putin. Russia’s economy is doomed

A funny thing happened on the way to Vladimir Putin running strategic laps around the West. Russia's economy imploded.

The latest news is that Russia's central bank raised interest rates from 10.5 to 17 percent at an emergency 1 a.m. meeting in an attempt to stop the ruble, which is down 50 percent on the year against the dollar, from falling any further. It's a desperate move to save Russia's currency that comes at the cost of sacrificing Russia's economy.

But even that wasn't enough. After a brief rally, the ruble resumed its cliff-diving ways on Tuesday, falling another 14 percent to a low of 80 rubles per dollar. It was 60 rubles per dollar just the day before. The problem is simple. Oil is still falling, and ordinary Russians don't want to hold their money in rubles even if they get paid 17 percent interest to do so. In other words, there's a well-justified panic. So now Russia is left with the double whammy of a collapsing currency and exorbitant interest rates. Checkmate.

It's a classic kind of emerging markets crisis. It's only a small simplification, you see, to say that Russia doesn't so much have an economy as it has an oil exporting business that subsidizes everything else. That's why the combination of more supply from the United States, and less demand from Europe, China, and Japan has hit them particularly hard. Cheaper oil means Russian companies have fewer dollars to turn into rubles, which is just another way of saying that there's less demand for rubles—so its price is falling. It hasn't helped, of course, that sanctions over Russia's incursion into Ukraine have already left Russia short on dollars.

Add it all up, and the ruble has fallen something like 22 percent against the dollar the past month, with 11 percent of that coming on Monday alone. As you can see below, the Russian ruble has fallen even further than the Ukrainian hryvnia or Brent oil has this year. The only asset, and I use that word lightly, that's done worse than the ruble's 50 percent fall is Bitcoin, which is a fake currency that techno-utopians insist is the future we don't know we want.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/

[JayH]

Interesting to see others reaching the same conclusions !!

PUTIN IS NO GENIUS

And this is only going to get worse. Russia, you see, is stuck in an economic catch-22. Its economy needs lower interest rates to push up growth, but its companies need higher interest rates to push up the ruble and make all the dollars they borrowed not worth so much. So, to use a technical term, they're screwed no matter what they do. If they had kept interest rates low, then the ruble would have continued to disintegrate, inflation would have spiked, and big corporations would have defaulted—but at least growth wouldn't have fallen quite so much.

Instead, Russia has opted for the financial shock-and-awe of raising rates from 10.5 to 17 percent in one fell swoop. Rates that high will send Russia's moribund economy into a deep recession—its central bank already estimates its economy will contract 4.5 to 4.7 percent if oil stays at $60-a-barrel—but they haven't been enough to stop the ruble's free fall. Russia might have to resort to capital controls to prop up the value of the ruble now, and might even have to ask the IMF for a bailout, too.




Putin's Russia, like the USSR before it, is only as strong as the price of oil. In the 1970s, we made the mistake of thinking that the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan meant we were losing the Cold War, when the reality was that they had stumbled into their own Vietnam and could only afford to feed their people as long as oil stayed sky-high. The USSR's economic mirage, though, became apparent to everybody—none less than their own people, who had to scrounge in empty supermarkets—after oil prices bottomed out in the 1980s. That history is repeating itself now, just without the Marxism-Leninism. Putin could afford to invade Georgia and Ukraine when oil prices were comfortably in the triple digits, but not when they're half that. Russia can't afford anything then.

Putin might be playing chess while we play checkers, but only if we lend him the money for the set.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/

[fathertime]

One last time---- this is not about the USA. That is pure Kremlin BS on a large scale .Even if you actually are an American-- the USA is part of the world-as I said above.It is neither an economic or political island-- there are many mutually benefiicial agreements in place  and as such--the US not only has the right to get involved--it has the obligation.\
Your isolationist thoughts were outdated a century ago-- so repeating them now is really too ridiculous.

I count 3 Australians on this one page all telling America what is obligated to do!   I do get why Australians in particular would be big on banding together nations, since they have a HUGE landmass with a very low population around to protect it.    That said, you are entitled to your opinion, as am I.  If you are so against isolationism, don't you think that you should allow some of those crowded islands next door repopulate your empty country, instead of having some of the strictest immigration laws on earth?  Or do you prefer to be a hypocrite?


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

Listen Greenspan, have you consider that the Hryvna may out-perform the "Rubble?" To intricate for you to understand?


Let's see how smart you are.

When trying so hard to make somebody look foolish don't you think it would be wise to learn how to spell second grade words first? 


Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

Or like many of us, just put him on Ignore.  He can talk to himself.     

You keep putting me on ignore for about 5 minutes but then un-ignore while responding, and quoting my posts like you did yesterday  [size=78%]....You aren't fooling anybody!   [/size]
[/size]

YES ,id agree with a lot of nemtsovs thoughts here ,
the situation becomes more unstable as russia finances /economy falters

SX

Yes and we are causing this to happen!  If/when Russia escalates (possibly dramatically) we will wish we had negotiated right from the start and ended this conflict with minimal carnage!  It was possible, but instead we wanted to attempt to stonewall the Russian viewpoint.  Tsk Tsk Tsk.   










Fathertime! 

[lordtiberius]

You telling anyone that they are stupid is the highest compliment a male member can receive here.  Thanks dude.

[JayH]

I count 3 Australians on this one page all telling America what is obligated to do!   I do get why Australians in particular would be big on banding together nations, since they have a HUGE landmass with a very low population around to protect it.    That said, you are entitled to your opinion, as am I.  If you are so against isolationism, don't you think that you should allow some of those crowded islands next door repopulate your empty country, instead of having some of the strictest immigration laws on earth?  Or do you prefer to be a hypocrite?


Fathertime!

Not that I am going to indulge you--BUT---
None of the "3" Australians here are telling the US what to do-- if you can actually read and comprehend 99.9% is directed at telling Russia what to do-- and more specifically-- what to do in relation to Ukraine.In case you may have missed it-- we all have very specific family and/or  relationship reasons and a serious interest in Ukraine and the welfare of Ukrainians.
BTW- why are you here? ( that does not require an answer--as Muzh alledged a reason above--which btw-I had suggested 6 months ago !!)
As for immigration to Australia-- you keep showing your ignorance-- Australia is one of the most culturally diverse countries in the world--it is full of migrants from all around the world.
Australia also has a policy of controlled immigration designed to absorb and assimilate migrants successfully-- and at the same time maintaining our way of life  .
I would also point out that the Australian posters on the forum reflect the cultural mix in Australia-- something you would never know or understand.

[AC]

I count 3 Australians on this one page all telling America what is obligated to do!   I do get why Australians in particular would be big on banding together nations, since they have a HUGE landmass with a very low population around to protect it.   

Perhaps I missed it but how are they telling America what it is obligated to do?  I only recall them coming out against Putin and for Ukraine.

[fathertime]

As for immigration to Australia-- you keep showing your ignorance-- Australia is one of the most culturally diverse countries in the world--it is full of migrants from all around the world.
Australia also has a policy of controlled immigration designed to absorb and assimilate migrants successfully-- and at the same time maintaining our way of life  .

Australia...the size of a blimp...23 million occupants.
YOUR NEIGHBORS:
Indonesia...much smaller landmass 252 million

Philippines...much much smaller landmass...100 million occupants...


Yeah...you guys are REALLY trying hard to not be isolationists!     I guess you all just require a little 'living space'..hehehe


 So since you guys are clearly isolationists in many respects, why is it that I can't lobby for my country to be more isolationist when it comes to intervening in other country's conflicts? 

Not that I am going to indulge you--BUT---
None of the "3" Australians here are telling the US what to do-- if you can actually read and comprehend 99.9% is directed at telling Russia what to do-- and more specifically-- what to do in relation to Ukraine.In case you may have missed it-- we all have very specific family and/or  relationship reasons and a serious interest in Ukraine and the welfare of Ukrainians.
BTW- why are you here? ( that does not require an answer--as Muzh alledged a reason above--which btw-I had suggested 6 months ago !!)

Yes yes, I know I'm just a paid Russian troll...blah blah.....  Actually YOU did say what the US..MUST DO....here is your quote.

One last time---- this is not about the USA. That is pure Kremlin BS on a large scale .Even if you actually are an American-- the USA is part of the world-as I said above.It is neither an economic or political island-- there are many mutually benefiicial agreements in place  and as such--the US not only has the right to get involved--it has the obligation.\
Your isolationist thoughts were outdated a century ago-- so repeating them now is really too ridiculous.

Fathertime! 

[Faux Pas]

FP
yes it is possible this may be occuring ,

however if it was occuring ,  given the history of russian revolutions its more likly if putin has lost control of the military/other bodies the new person/person emerging would be more vivible by now id think

thats not to say it isnt / cant or wont happen though

the other worse case is if putin is pushed even further from forces within the kremlin /duma , he may resort to even more unpredictable /desperate measure to either  reassert control or threaten the outside world , if he remains in control

this makes the situation very unpredicatble and dangerous for all imo

SX

Putin set many things in motion a number of years ago when he set himself up to be president again despite  it being against the Russian constitution. In short, he owed a lot of favors. He built a machine on those favors that he can't control. To the West (and most Russians) it's difficult to understand who's in bed with whom in the Kremlin (much like elsewhere I suppose) but the Kremlin is run very close to the American mafia and there is no one "Don". Putin is only the visible one.

All this ranting and raving Putin this, Putin that is meaningless. Very likely Putin is just another Obama. All hat and no cattle

[Photo Guy]

Fathertime said:
So since you guys are clearly isolationists in many respects, why is it that I can't lobby for my country to be more isolationist when it comes to intervening in other country's conflicts?

I forgot what country you're in. Belarus? Russia? Cuba?
Anyway, if countries intervene in Ukraine, it's because most Ukrainians are eager to accept outside help. That's obvious. On the other hand, there is a small minority in Donbas that wants outside intervention from Russia, while being led by mercenaries and Russian citizen/mercenaries, like Girkin.

FT, what would you like to see happen in Ukraine? ...The establishment of a 'New Russia'? Which is worse for Ukraine- Russia's invasion, or the West's intervention? And why?

[AC]

Putin set many things in motion a number of years ago when he set himself up to be president again despite  it being against the Russian constitution. In short, he owed a lot of favors. He built a machine on those favors that he can't control. To the West (and most Russians) it's difficult to understand who's in bed with whom in the Kremlin (much like elsewhere I suppose) but the Kremlin is run very close to the American mafia and there is no one "Don". Putin is only the visible one.

All this ranting and raving Putin this, Putin that is meaningless. Very likely Putin is just another Obama. All hat and no cattle.

I find this very hard to believe, although possible.  Putin is just another Obama?  That's a worse insult than anything anyone has said before, and it's highly unlikely that anyone could be more "all hat and no cattle" than Obama is.

[fathertime]

Fathertime said:
So since you guys are clearly isolationists in many respects, why is it that I can't lobby for my country to be more isolationist when it comes to intervening in other country's conflicts?

I forgot what country you're in. Belarus? Russia? Cuba?
Anyway, if countries intervene in Ukraine, it's because most Ukrainians are eager to accept outside help. That's obvious. On the other hand, there is a small minority in Donbas that wants outside intervention from Russia, while being led by mercenaries and Russian citizen/mercenaries, like Girkin.

FT, what would you like to see happen in Ukraine? ...The establishment of a 'New Russia'? Which is worse for Ukraine- Russia's invasion, or the West's intervention? And why?

Why the tired old crack about being in Russia or Cuba?
I'm sure many Ukrainians are eager for outside help....and clearly the separatists don't want western involvement....None of this is our business.  This is a Russian/Ukrainian issue...if Russia wants to fight an insurgency for years then that is their problem.  The world doesn't need a war over this region...it is not worth it...There are battles around the world and we often hardly bat an eyelash, but the fact that Russia could gain some strength in this one really seems to bother some.   


What would I like to see happen?  I'd like to see the two countries come together and work out a compromise which will eventually happen, as it will eventually be in the best interests of both to move on.  Obama has stuck just the right cord, regardless of what his critics say!   


Fathertime! 

[JayH]

Somethings up and I expect that the USA is finally giving Ukraine some weapons.  Two sources I found seem to confirm this:

http://investmentwatchblog.com/blogger-colonel-cassad-the-reason-for-shutting-down-ukrainian-airspace-is-to-accept-military-cargo-from-usa-new-unofficial-military-advisersassistants-should-be-expected-to-show-up-as-well/

and this guy
Dimitry Bespalov

December 13 at 9:33am ·
.
Наткнулся на такой комментарий, не знаю правда ли.

Пришло сообщение из Харькова. Мои источники говорят, что аэропорт готовят к приему грузовых самолетов из США, которые везут подарки на новый год для агрессора и террористов на Донбассе. А знаете какие подарки? Правильно, — летальное оружие… Тизерная сеть GlobalTeaser Говорят, что готовят 3 аэропорта для приема: Запорожье, Харьков, Днепропетровск. Именно поэтому их и закрыли. Россия попытается всячески помешать доставить груз. В том числе может применить и свои »Буки». Для того, чтобы не пострадали мирные и для того, чтобы сбить агрессора с толку, было принято решение закрыть сразу 3 аэропорта. Пускай Путин думку гадает куда именно прибудет груз. А если хочет, пускай сбивает все, что летает в воздухе над Донбассом). Тогда и летального оружия не надо.. Сами россияне параноика уберут. Поводов для радости у террористов и агрессора должно быть очень много. Первый — Порошенко дал Путину 10 дней на размышление, иначе военное положение. Второе — Конгресс США одобрил акт военной поддержки Украины. И наконец третье — Аэропорты Харькова, Днепропетровска и Запорожье закрыли для мирной авиации. В СНБО не комментируют ситуацию. Ликуйте враги Украины! Подарки к Новому Году от союзников Украины уже на подходе. Мы уничтожали Вас ржавыми танками, уничтожали довольно таки успешно. Не сомневайтесь! С подарочками наших союзников вы будете умирать быстрее, возможно не мучаясь в агонии смерти…



Came across this comment, I do not know whether it was true.

Message from Kharkov. My sources say that the airport is prepared to receive cargo planes from the United States who bring gifts for the new year for the aggressor and terrorists in the Donbass region. Do you know what kind of gifts? Correctly, is a lethal weapon ... Teaser GlobalTeaser network say they are preparing to receive airport 3: Kiev, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk. That is why they have closed. Russia will try to prevent to deliver the goods. Including may apply and their "Beeches". In order to not hurt the peace and in order to bring down the aggressor be confusing, it was decided to close the airport 3 right away. Let Putin por. s. Karolak and wondering where it will load. And if you want, let them is anything that flies in the air over Donbass). Then lethal weapons do not.. The Russians are paranoid to be removed. Reasons for the joy of the terrorists and the aggressor should be very much. The first 10 days, Putin gave Poroshenko on meditation, or martial law. The second United States Congress approved the Act of Ukrainian military support. And finally the third Airports Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia was closed to civilian aircraft. The NATIONAL SECURITY and DEFENSE COUNCIL does not comment on the situation. Ukraine's enemies rejoice! Gifts for the new year from allies of Ukraine are on the way. We destroyed you rusty tanks, destroyed quite successfully. Do not hesitate! With podaročkami our allies you will die faster, perhaps not suffering the agony of death ...

Translated by Bing

AC-- I found a video to support this!!
14.12.2014 Airport Zaporozhye - NATO redeployed support for Ukraine

[lordtiberius]

Why the tired old crack about being in Russia or Cuba?
I'm sure many Ukrainians are eager for outside help....and clearly the separatists don't want western involvement....None of this is our business.  This is a Russian/Ukrainian issue...if Russia wants to fight an insurgency for years then that is their problem.  The world doesn't need a war over this region...it is not worth it...There are battles around the world and we often hardly bat an eyelash, but the fact that Russia could gain some strength in this one really seems to bother some.   


What would I like to see happen?  I'd like to see the two countries come together and work out a compromise which will eventually happen, as it will eventually be in the best interests of both to move on.  Obama has stuck just the right cord, regardless of what his critics say!   


Fathertime!

So your wife is Columbian?  If that is the case, what are you doing here?

[AC]

So your wife is Columbian?  If that is the case, what are you doing here?

I suspect his wife is Cuban and he is Russian.

[fathertime]

So your wife is Columbian?  If that is the case, what are you doing here?

I love a lively political debate, and besides I'm a Russian troll!   

I suspect his wife is Cuban and he is Russian.

hehehe...sure...it is all about being a secret spy and spreading disinformation...nothing to do with merely having a different viewpoint! 


Fathertime! 

[Brasscasing]

According to Bloomberg the U.S. has no intention on easing up on sanctions for now...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/u-s-won-t-ease-sanctions-to-prevent-economic-meltdown-in-russia.html

...I would hope that the US, EU and relevant NATO countries systematically increase sanctions in the new year not back away from them.

Has Putin lost control of the military?

Not at this point but it could happen. I'd suggest the first indication of such an event would be a significant withdrawal or even cessation of Russian aggression in Ukraine, over flights, large formations near NATO/neighboring countries, recall of Russian warships, etc. In other words they'd go quiet. Of course, in this day and age we'd have the advantage of knowing almost immediately if something of this nature were to happen which would have taken time to discern even a decade ago.

With one ingredient of the recipe already brewing (the current economic meltdown) we might even see something similar to the social/political/military upheaval as was witnessed when the USSR fell.

A counter argument to this is that putting Putin/Russia in a "nothing to lose" position might escalate Russia's abhorrent aggression outlined in this article...

Russia’s economic fallout may trigger default, aggression in Ukraine

.."Plunging ruble, falling oil prices and a decision to increase interest rates may force Russia to default on some debts

The Associated Press

December 16, 2014
 
WASHINGTON — Russia’s suddenly escalating financial crisis risks spilling beyond its borders and endangering parts of the global economy.

With economies in Europe, Japan, China and Latin America already ailing, fresh threats have emerged from Russia’s shrivelled currency, its move to dramatically boost interest rates, the damage from plummeting oil prices and Western sanctions over Russia’s action in Ukraine.

The alarming 10 per cent drop in the ruble over the past two days has amplified the economic turmoil in Russia. Investors fear that Russia may default on its foreign debt obligations — a move that would inflict hundreds of billions in losses on lenders abroad.

Some analysts also worry that tensions will further escalate between Russia and the United States and its European allies that imposed the sanctions. The White House upped the pressure Tuesday when President Barack Obama committed to approving additional sanctions.

Few see President Vladimir Putin as backing down.

“I do not expect him to blink,” said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a political risk and consulting firm.

The financial consequences for the United States could be modest because of Russia’s diminished economic stature. Yet the geopolitical risk could ripple across continents.

Russia began the year as the world’s eighth-largest economy, with a gross domestic product of $2.1 trillion, according to the World Bank. A single ruble is now worth less than two pennies, having lost about 50 per cent of its value against the dollar since January.

This means Russia’s GDP has been halved in dollar terms, putting it roughly on par with Mexico and Indonesia as the world’s 15th largest economy.

Before financial markets opened Tuesday, the Bank of Russia hiked its key rate to protect the ruble’s value. In doing so, the bank hopes investors will find it more financially appealing to keep their money in Russia. Nevertheless, the ruble fell in trading to close Tuesday at 80 rubles to a dollar, compared with 65 on Monday. It recovered in late trading to a rate of 68 to the dollar.

Russian officials have already projected that their economy will shrink nearly 5 per cent next year. That will, by extension, affect its trading partners in Europe and Asia.

Russia imports about $324 billion in goods annually, primarily from China, Germany, Ukraine, Belarus and Japan. Those imports have grown costlier because of the falling ruble.

One potential global risk comes from Russia seeking to retaliate against the sanctions by stepping-up cyberattacks against U.S. targets and asserting itself more aggressively in Ukraine and other nearby countries, Bremmer said.

On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov argued in a French TV interview that the sanctions were intended to end Putin’s regime.

Unlike during the previous ruble crash in 1998, Russia is unlikely to receive help from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, organizations backed by the United States and its European allies that contend that Russia has funnelled direct support to rebels fighting in Ukraine.

Isolated and alone, Russia might then choose to default on some of its debt.

“Our deepest fear has been — and still is — that putting Mr. Putin in a ‘nothing-to-lose’ situation removes any constraint he might have had against reneging on his foreign debt obligations, which Russian borrowers probably cannot pay off or service now,” writes Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. Foreign lenders would have to brace for $670 billion in losses.

This possibility has sparked an investor retreat from Russia. But that pullback has also caused investors to flee other emerging market currencies that are deemed risky. They include Turkey, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, noted John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

Higgins said that oil prices are the central factor that will determine “the depth of Russia’s problems and the consequences for the global financial markets.” Should oil continue to collapse, the financial and geopolitical turbulence in Russia will worsen.

U.S. crude oil markets rose 2 cents to close at $55.93 a barrel Tuesday, while the international counterpart dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since May 2009. Oil prices have been cut in half over the past six months.

Analysts generally attribute the plunge in oil prices to rising supplies and slowing demand as Europe and Japan falter and China’s growth weakens. But as the price drops further, fears are intensifying that the decline is pointing to slower growth than many analysts had expected, said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise.

That could make the situation for Russia even more dire.

“Oil hasn’t found a bottom yet, so the pain is only going to get worse as the price of oil continues to fall,” Joy said.'...

http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/fallout-from-troubled-russia-risks-triggering-default-and-increased-aggression-in-ukraine/

In light of Mr. Putin's (and by extension the Russian government and people's support) insistence on trying to conquer it's neighbors I'm still of the opinion that a shooting war is unavoidable.

Brass

[mendeleyev]

I fear that Brass could be correct and know that we both hope the fighting does not escalate. Mr. Putin is in firm control yet and the prospect of him feeling backed into a corner with few prospects left is chilling.

Yesterday, high ranking members of the Finance Ministry fanned out to cover media interviews. On channel One, Russia's prime news channel, the ruble collapse was the fifth story in, not even the lead (or lede, to media purists). Finance Ministry spokespersons are blaming the fall of the ruble on currency speculators, and naturally many such unnamed villains are surely from the evil West.

Some members of the administration are also blaming those electronic currency signs, saying that those signs cause panic among the general population. Hmm, ya think?! Russians are buying up dollars as if the end of the world was near and many a mattress across the country has benefited from new padding in recent weeks.

The government is threatening to prosecute currency speculators at home, and more and more calls are being heard to "investigate" the Central Bank on charges of currency speculation. (Can you spell "scapegoat?")

[mendeleyev]

Sanctions are working, but Russians are indeed resilient.

The sanctions that are working best on the everyday citizen are the Russian "reverse sanctions" against EU products, especially food products.

Inflation tied to loss of ruble value is being felt everywhere.

[AkMike]

JOKE:
 Russian boy says to his father: "Daddy, can I have 5 rubles to buy some sweets?"
 Father: "20 rubles? What do you need 50 rubles for?"

[JayH]

According to Bloomberg the U.S. has no intention on easing up on sanctions for now...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/u-s-won-t-ease-sanctions-to-prevent-economic-meltdown-in-russia.html

...I would hope that the US, EU and relevant NATO countries systematically increase sanctions in the new year not back away from them.

Has Putin lost control of the military?

Not at this point but it could happen. I'd suggest the first indication of such an event would be a significant withdrawal or even cessation of Russian aggression in Ukraine, over flights, large formations near NATO/neighboring countries, recall of Russian warships, etc. In other words they'd go quiet. Of course, in this day and age we'd have the advantage of knowing almost immediately if something of this nature were to happen which would have taken time to discern even a decade ago.

With one ingredient of the recipe already brewing (the current economic meltdown) we might even see something similar to the social/political/military upheaval as was witnessed when the USSR fell.

A counter argument to this is that putting Putin/Russia in a "nothing to lose" position might escalate Russia's abhorrent aggression outlined in this article...

Russia’s economic fallout may trigger default, aggression in Ukraine

.."Plunging ruble, falling oil prices and a decision to increase interest rates may force Russia to default on some debts
The Associated Press
December 16, 2014
 WASHINGTON — Russia’s suddenly escalating financial crisis risks spilling beyond its borders and endangering parts of the global economy.
In light of Mr. Putin's (and by extension the Russian government and people's support) insistence on trying to conquer it's neighbors I'm still of the opinion that a shooting war is unavoidable.

Brass

\

I fear that Brass could be correct and know that we both hope the fighting does not escalate. Mr. Putin is in firm control yet and the prospect of him feeling backed into a corner with few prospects left is chilling.

In posts a little upthread--FauxPas #991  & #996 
                                         Southern Cross #1014 & #1019
and my self!!                     JayH    #1004   #1016 & # 1021
Have covered some of this-- and prospective outcome potentials.

[AkMike]

EU to tighten sanctions on Crimea in time for leaders summit
(Reuters) - The European Union will widen its ban on investment in Crimea to target Russian Black Sea oil and gas exploration, EU officials said on Wednesday, tightening sanctions first imposed over Moscow's annexation of the region.

At a summit on Thursday and Friday in Brussels, EU leaders meeting in the European Council will announce the punitive measures that are also expected to be coordinated with similar steps by the United States, officials have told Reuters.

The investment ban, the latest in a series of measures since July, is also designed to show that despite a dive in the Russian ruble's value, there will be no lifting of sanctions unless Moscow drops its support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.

"This is being done in time for the European Council," one EU official said following a political decision to go ahead with the Crimea measures late on Tuesday. "There are consequences for violating international law," said a second official on condition of anonymity.

As reported exclusively by Reuters on Dec. 10, the sanctions will also ban EU citizens from buying or financing companies in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in March, prompting the worst East-West stand-off since the Cold War.

The latest draft of the statement to be delivered by EU leaders at their summit says the Crimea measures strengthen "the Union's policy of not recognizing the illegal annexation of Crimea".

The European Union has previously banned imports from Crimea and barred new investment in infrastructure projects in the transport, telecommunications and energy sectors, as well as investing in oil and gas ventures.

Now, "the sale, supply, transfer and export of goods and technology ... shall be prohibited," according to the draft document detailing the measures, which cites transport, telecommunications, energy and oil, gas and mineral exploration and production.

Europe is trying to weaken Russia's ability to develop the energy industry at the heart of its economy.

The annexation of Crimea gave Russia rich oil and gas resources in the Black sea, depriving Ukraine of them. Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom has proposed developing Crimea's oil and gas sector, officials said in March following the annexation.

The new measures will ban European investment in oil and gas drilling in the Black Sea, limiting development of the resources, according to the document seen by Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/17/us-ukraine-crisis-sanctions-idUSKBN0JV0ZO20141217?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
(Additional reporting by Julia Fioretti; editing by David Stamp

[ghost of moon goddess]

On channel One, Russia's prime news channel, the ruble collapse was the fifth story in, not even the lead (or lede, to media purists).

Unlike the news from Channel One,  the bulletins on Russia's Rain TV led with the rouble's record rout, calling yesterday a 'Black Tuesday' (with the dollar being worth 80,1 roubles and a euro buying as much as 100 roubles, at 3.13 p.m. in Moscow, Russia's currency hit its lowest ever levels against the dollar and euro)

[Gator]

Looks like we are screwing ourselves in the process...another crazy day in the stock market...the end result... down another 100+ points again today, after being up 250 at one point...Our economy is showing some frailness, although I do think/hope it will recover.

You are more pessimistic than the "glass half empty" guy.  I place you in the paranoia category of Chicken Little, the folktale chicken who kept saying "The sky is falling."