More Bad News for Russia

[Gator]

Will a recession if not depression in Russia change anything? 

The USSR collapsed for many reasons, yet perhaps the leading reason was the bad economy.  Before drawing parallels, the Soviet economy had been in a downturn for years and years before the USSR collapsed.  The current Russian downturn is just starting after years and years of growth.  Further, Putin has predicted a recovery in two years. 

A recession/depression will hurt the ordinary citizen, some of whom are relatives of RWD members.  If such happened in the US, the next election would "kick the bums out."   I have little faith that the Russian election process could do the same.   Even in a bad economy well entrenched dictators stay in power (e. g., Cuba).

[lordtiberius]

Elections prevent violent change of power.  Without elections, violent change of power is imminent.

[jone]

Elections prevent violent change of power.  Without elections, violent change of power is imminent.

Good observation, LT.

[Gator]

Elections prevent violent change of power.  Without elections, violent change of power is imminent.

Putin first became President without being elected. 

Even when there were elections, Yeltsin was reelected after a long period of economic downturn.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Yeltsin#mediaviewer/File:Russian_economy_since_fall_of_Soviet_Union.PNG


Yeltsin managed to stay in power even through the 1998 Russian default (when the ruble went from 5 to 21 per dollar).   The position of Prime Minister changed five times in 18 months until Putin was named.  Even though the economy grew in 1999,  Yeltsin resigned on December 31, 1999, and Putin named successor.  Yeltsin was never as well entrenched as Putin is today, which comes back to my point - will the economic downturn change anything?

[AC]

Yeltsin was never as well entrenched as Putin is today, which comes back to my point - will the economic downturn change anything?

Listening to the sentiments of Belvis and Doll I would say that is highly unlikely for at least a few years.  Russians seem to expect economic hard times and unless it continues to get much worse change will not happen.

[Muzh]

Is it the end of Putin's Novorossia fantasy?  It seems that Russian special forces have been either eliminating certain separatists (Batman) or forcing them to surrender.  This makes one wonder if the Russians are cleaning it up before notifying Ukraine that they are withdrawing, or simply putting the entire area firmly under Russian control prior to a complete invasion.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/11/is-this-the-end-of-putin-s-new-russia-fantasy.html

This has been discussed ad nauseaum somewhere else.


The Russians want to join the two "independent" republics and have one Russian puppet in charge of destabilizing Ukraine. Everywhere else known as a Frozen Conflict.


In order to achieve that, the Russians have to eliminate the warlords in Lughansk and Donetsk before they set up their little kingdoms. See: Chechnya.

[Muzh]

Will a recession if not depression in Russia change anything? 

Yes, Putler will start the invasion.

[JayH]

Will a recession if not depression in Russia change anything? 

The USSR collapsed for many reasons, yet perhaps the leading reason was the bad economy.  Before drawing parallels, the Soviet economy had been in a downturn for years and years before the USSR collapsed.  The current Russian downturn is just starting after years and years of growth.  Further, Putin has predicted a recovery in two years. 

A recession/depression will hurt the ordinary citizen, some of whom are relatives of RWD members.  If such happened in the US, the next election would "kick the bums out."   I have little faith that the Russian election process could do the same.   Even in a bad economy well entrenched dictators stay in power (e. g., Cuba).

Gator--the relative prosperity of recent times is exactly the reason why Russians will react to the downturn much faster than in the past--now they are losing or without something they want!
Even if the sanctions were pulled today completely-- it would not save the Russian economies immediate fate.

[calmissile]

Gator--the relative prosperity of recent times is exactly the reason why Russians will react to the downturn much faster than in the past--now they are losing or without something they want!
Even if the sanctions were pulled today completely-- it would not save the Russian economies immediate fate.

Sort of my thinking also.  After having a generation of relative freedom and prospering, how will Russians react to the old Soviet clampdowns and failing economy.  I would think it would be quicker than earlier.

Perhaps we should watch the women to see how they react.  Some might not like using beets for lipstick.     

[Chicagoguy]

My wife is older and has been through these downturns before. She believes Russians are tough and can handle it. But my thinking is latest upturn will be be remembered and downturn difficult to handle. Can they go from their BMW back to the Lada ?

[BillyB]

Can they go from their BMW back to the Lada ?

Probably not so they'd be willing to support Putin on marching to Germany to steal those BMWs and Mercedes. I see the Russian people blaming their economic hardships on the West before they'd blame Putin. Remember who the Germans backed and blamed when they endured economic hardships due to having to pay war reparations after WW1? The result, WW2 and most people then, like today, thought world war wouldn't happen.

[lordtiberius]

So in your estimation, the Russians want to fight a conventional war against Germany and the West?  Is that what you believe?  Why?  And why not just nuke the West?

[Doll]

So in your estimation, the Russians want to fight a conventional war against Germany and the West?  Is that what you believe?  Why?  And why not just nuke the West?

are you serious?

[Doll]

I just want this horrible "conflict" to end! Doesn't matter how.

[sleepycat]

I just want this horrible "conflict" to end! Doesn't matter how.

Getting sick of the economic ruin and worthless currency already?
Good place to start will be for that midget mongoloid president of yours to kneel on broken glass to repent for his transgressions...

[lordtiberius]

I just want this horrible "conflict" to end! Doesn't matter how.

Are you gonna nuke us?

[Doll]

Are you gonna nuke us?

Me? I am in the US

[BillyB]

So in your estimation, the Russians want to fight a conventional war against Germany and the West? 

No, I don't believe Russia wants to fight a war against the west but war is possible because of a few reasons beyond even Putin's control. Putin may feel he would lose a world war but there's little chance he'd lose his country due to Russia's nuclear ability so we'd pause before going to Moscow but Putin does have a desire to hurt those who are hurting Russia and a war will disrupt lives in the West much more than it'll disrupt lives in Russia so in his estimation, the West will not win a war either but merely gain back the territories Russia will initially take.


A second reason is because NATO's Article 5 exists. If Ukraine is under assault, Poland and the Baltics may give Ukraine military assistance and there is an increased chance Russian soldiers will attack soldiers from a NATO alliance member. NATO isn't obligated to help Ukraine but ff that happens everybody becomes obligated to get involved to help Poland or a Baltic nation. Then everybody will be scratching their heads on how we got dragged into a war with Russia based on a conflict in Ukraine. History shows small skirmishes can start world wars and when a nation declares war on another, their friends usually follow with declarations of war.


I don't think Putin is scared of Article 5 because the language is weak. Not as weak as the Budapest Memorandum but it is weak. Below are some passages I posted in bold from the link below and notice that NATO members don't have to provide military assistance to those being attacked? They are obligated to help but the help may come in the form of food and bandages. Each NATO member is to determine on their own how much they want to help.


Let's say Putin invades Estonia because they helped Ukraine. Do you really believe Western nations would risk total world war over this little nation? After seeing the West's reactions to various crisis around the world, I believe the rest of the NATO members would ask Russia to talk it over at a negotiating table before risking their blood, their economies and future over little Estonia. It is certain NATO members won't immediately jump into a fight with Russia over Estonia but if they do enter into a fight, they will drag their feet before they begin a rescue mission.


Article 5 is at the basis of a fundamental principle of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. It provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked. Let's hope Poland and Baltics don't accidently get into any skirmishes with Russia.


Allies can provide any form of assistance they deem necessary to respond to the situation. This assistance is not necessarily military and depends on the material resources of each country. When and if sh!t hits the fan, we will see what everyone is made of and if they got each others back. I'm sure Putin has factored in the possibility that NATO will crack if he shows enough strength and the ability inflict serious pain.


http://www.nato.int/terrorism/five.htm

[Doll]

the West will not win a war either but merely gain back the territories Russia will initially take.

Russia will NOT fight.

[lordtiberius]

We have military personnel in the Baltics.  So if the Mongolian horde comes over the border, what will US forces do?  Abstain?

Will Obama go to war for Estonia?  No.  But our troops are already there.

[lordtiberius]

No, I don't believe Russia wants to fight a war against the west but war is possible because of a few reasons beyond even Putin's control. Putin may feel he would lose a world war but there's little chance he'd lose his country due to Russia's nuclear ability so we'd pause before going to Moscow

If NATO invades Russia, he has 1500 nukes.  What cities will he wipe out? 

but Putin does have a desire to hurt those who are hurting Russia and a war will disrupt lives in the West much more than it'll disrupt lives in Russia so in his estimation, the West will not win a war either but merely gain back the territories Russia will initially take.

This makes no sense . . .

Bottom line up front, the Russian President can't just shoot unarmed soldiers in the back as they charge like World War II.  I suppose he could do like Saddam in the first Iraq War and cut the Achilles heels of his conscripts to keep them from running away, but like I said, over and over and over again, YOU HAVE TO PAY THE JOES - the Russian government budget is based on oil production and the Saudis are keeping oil low in part to hurt Russia's proxies in the middle east but also to hurt Texas muther frackers.  Either way unless  Russia's proxies use nukes, we aren't going to see $ 80 oil for another 20 years maybe not in our lifetime.

When a country looses a war, like the US did in Vietnam and sort of lost in Iraq, the order that existed antebellum collapses especially in Russia, see Russo-Japanese War.  Russia had its high water mark right before the Odessans burned those people in the trade union building, since then it has been down hill.  Russia had its chance to blitzkrieg the country after Yanukovych left the country.  That train has long left the station.

I agree with Jay H's predictions that Russia will implode and see a civil war.  An invasion of the Baltics will go about as well as the Polish-Soviet War.  It will be a rout.  Reverses and a Ukrainian invasion and occupation of Moscow will provoke unrest within Russia.

[Anotherkiwi]

Getting sick of the economic ruin and worthless currency already?
Good place to start will be for that midget mongoloid president of yours to kneel on broken glass to repent for his transgressions...

Um...she might be Russian by birth, but she's a US citizen, living in the USA, so you really shouldn't insult Mr Obama like that! 

[lordtiberius]

#fail.

Obama is tall.

[BillyB]

Russia will NOT fight.

Ukraine and Eastern Europe should be relieved to hear that. They should take a chill pill knowing Russians aren't aggressive. Putin did admit to sending armed soldiers to Crimea. What was their purpose?

We have military personnel in the Baltics.  So if the Mongolian horde comes over the border, what will US forces do?  Abstain?

What did the world do when Putin sent armed troops into Georgia? Oh, I forgot, Russians don't want to fight. We do have an obligation to Baltic nations so we can't abstain totally in event of Russian invasion. Obama may send them MREs(Meals Ready to Eat). He may not be willing to risk a world war over the Baltics. He's a Nobel Peace Prize winner. He has an image to protect.

If NATO invades Russia, he has 1500 nukes.  What cities will he wipe out? 

Tactical nukes are used on approaching armies, not in cities on civilians. Small nuclear yield and does less or no damage to infrastructure.

[Gator]

Gator--the relative prosperity of recent times is exactly the reason why Russians will react to the downturn much faster than in the past--now they are losing or without something they want!

The Russian economy had improved under Putin, but the average Russian saw little of this.  Watch PBS Frontline tonight - they will broadcast a scathing one-hour report on Putin.  One fact - 110 Russians own 35% of the wealth - the most top heavy economy in the world - starting with Putin whose wealth is estimated at $40 billion.

Even if the sanctions were pulled today completely-- it would not save the Russian economies immediate fate.

Agree, supposedly the sanctions account for only 25% of the problematic economy.  Declining oil prices are the primary culprit.  Until they return to higher levels, the economy will be weak.  BTW, Putin says the price of oil will increase and the economy will recover in two years.  Frankly, I don't believe the price of oil will return to $100/bbl in the next 10 years.