More Bad News for Russia

[lordtiberius]

Perhaps you can provide the post where I said I made this prediction.  Good luck! 

Neither do I. 



Lets follow your 'logic' here.  You are giving me an opportunity to make a prediction for the next 12 months because the earlier prediction (I never made) has come true.   Lots of sense you are making!


Fathertime!

Word twisting with FT

[AkMike]

Russia's Economy plunge halted!
 

 

[sleepycat]

Russian credit rating downgraded to 'junk' by Moody's agency
     
All three major credit agencies now rate Russia's credit status as junk

Russia's struggling economy has been hit by news that all three major credit rating agencies have labeled Russia's rating, 'junk'.

American firm Moody's said the decision was based on 'the continuing crisis in Ukraine and the recent oil price and exchange rate shocks'.

Russia's rating has already been downgraded to junk by the other two main credit agencies - Fitch and Standard & Poor's


http://uatoday.tv/business/russian-credit-rating-downgraded-to-junk-by-moody-s-agency-410875.html


 Flush twice.. it's a long ways to Moscow!

I am just waiting for transgender Putin to start up his own domestic credit rating agency.
Using the same playbook like that silly idea of domestic production substitution after he banned EU foodstuff last year.
Yep, a patriotic Russian credit rating agency to give his serfdom a AAA+ credit rating!

[sleepycat]

Hey Doll,

Can you teach us how to pronounce Junk in Russian?

 

[AkMike]

утиль (junk)


              Or

       
мусор   (Garbage)



   

[AkMike]

As rouble weakens, migrants head home

When heavy snowfall hit Russia’s second city of Saint Petersburg last month it was nothing unusual, but city officials were overwhelmed and scrambled to find anyone to clear the streets.
As pedestrians slipped and suffered bruises and fractures, exasperated city officials ended up telling residents to go out and shovel the snow themselves.
The city was unable to clear the snowdrifts because of an exodus of migrants from Central Asia who normally do such backbreaking work in Russia’s largest cities. They have headed back home after Russia’s rouble currency plunged in value.
“Almost 30% of the workers who left to spend New Year’s as usual with their families in Uzbekistan or Tajikistan have not come back,” said the head of a street cleaning company, who asked not to be named.
The deputy governor of Saint Petersburg, Igor Albin, said recently that the city had lost half the migrant workers who do this type of manual labour.
Migrants from the ex-Soviet states in Central Asia used to flock to Russia to work as street sweepers, gypsy cab drivers or restaurant cleaners. Even the low wages seemed better than conditions back home.
But many are returning to their countries as the Russian economy is choked by crippling Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis and plunging oil prices. That has caused the rouble to lose half its value against the dollar, hitting migrants’ paychecks hard.
http://www.gulf-times.com/mobile//uk-europe/183/details/428187/as-rouble-weakens,-migrants-head-home

[JayH]

Maybe the Russians will be able to head to  Uzbekistan or Tajikistan  to get work when the rubble hits complete rock bottom  and they can sweep some streets there--after all--they will be able to say they are experienced street sweepers !!

[lordtiberius]

An analyst I follow on Twitter says the Russian economy has bottomed out though the Ukrainian war and oil could drive it in other directions.  Right now oil producers are storing oil and are at 80% capacity.  If the Saudis keep pumping oil in exchange for market share, prices will go down once capacity is met barring no other geopolitical events.

[Boethius]

Translation of a very good analysis of Russian military capabilities. 

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/23/moscow-military-analyst-russian-army-currently-unprepared-modern-war/
 

[jone]

An analyst I follow on Twitter says the Russian economy has bottomed out though the Ukrainian war and oil could drive it in other directions.  Right now oil producers are storing oil and are at 80% capacity.  If the Saudis keep pumping oil in exchange for market share, prices will go down once capacity is met barring no other geopolitical events.

My belief is that simple weather and maintenance related problems have impacted the increased storage of oil.  The refineries can't get enough product out currently.  The US is stockpiled at 80% ABOVE the previously highest storage total in the history of oil storage. 

[lordtiberius]

Jone, I heard they are using supertankers for storage as well.  Is that standard business practice or safe?

[JayH]

Translation of a very good analysis of Russian military capabilities. 

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/23/moscow-military-analyst-russian-army-currently-unprepared-modern-war/

Interesting how different assessments can reach varied conclusions  eg  Russian military is at the level of Pakistan.  While to a point technically that may be a reasonable comment there would not be too many people who believed that would be the case in practice.
Russian military will do ok until faced with real pressure. Some of the military have been trained by Germans recently and have updated battlefield organisation( those troops spearheaded Crimean invasion and I believe they were the first Russians in eastern Ukraine way back in April 2014--  and are the same troops involved last week).
Generally speaking--Ukrainians have taken quite a toll on the invasion forces-disproportionally as it happens-given the superior armaments of the invasion forces.Now the Russians seem no longer concerned who now know they are there-- so maybe that will see them upgrading the attack-they have certainly amassed a huge number of men and  equipment.
The real test for Russia will come if it faces the latest--or at least later- equipment that the west has.My guess is that then Putin will be squawking for peace

[sleepycat]

How do you say "White Elephant" in Russian?

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/moscows-flagship-12-billion-financial-district-is-a-half-empty-disaster-2015-2

[Faux Pas]

Interesting how different assessments can reach varied conclusions  eg  Russian military is at the level of Pakistan.  While to a point technically that may be a reasonable comment there would not be too many people who believed that would be the case in practice.
Russian military will do ok until faced with real pressure. Some of the military have been trained by Germans recently and have updated battlefield organisation( those troops spearheaded Crimean invasion and I believe they were the first Russians in eastern Ukraine way back in April 2014--  and are the same troops involved last week).

Russia faced zero resistance in Crimea militarily.

Generally speaking--Ukrainians have taken quite a toll on the invasion forces-disproportionally as it happens-given the superior armaments of the invasion forces.Now the Russians seem no longer concerned who now know they are there-- so maybe that will see them upgrading the attack-they have certainly amassed a huge number of men and  equipment.
The real test for Russia will come if it faces the latest--or at least later- equipment that the west has.My guess is that then Putin will be squawking for peace

Few even Putin would believe that the Russian forces could have the slightest chance against a formidable military force as the U.S.. Likely two chances, slim and none. However, thinking he would be squawking for peace would be a huge underestimation and a major mistake. He still has a nuclear program and he's crazy enough to use it. It wouldn't take but one launch on his part for complete nuclear destruction of the planet. With Russia and Putin specifically, it's not as easy as, we'll come kick your ass

[lordtiberius]

Russia faced zero resistance in Crimea militarily.

Sad but true

He still has a nuclear program and he's crazy enough to use it. It wouldn't take but one launch on his part for complete nuclear destruction of the planet. With Russia and Putin specifically, it's not as easy as, we'll come kick your ass

Wild a$$ guess, what are the probabilities he uses it against us if hypothetically he faced a United West (say under a President Walker or Bush or Clinton)?

[JayH]

Russia faced zero resistance in Crimea militarily.

Few even Putin would believe that the Russian forces could have the slightest chance against a formidable military force as the U.S.. Likely two chances, slim and none. However, thinking he would be squawking for peace would be a huge underestimation and a major mistake. He still has a nuclear program and he's crazy enough to use it. It wouldn't take but one launch on his part for complete nuclear destruction of the planet. With Russia and Putin specifically, it's not as easy as, we'll come kick your ass

My squawking reference--if Ukraine was able to push back Russian forces -then Putin would want to negotiate to hold what he has.

I have commented previously on US military( I would be very happy to have them there)-- it is tricky situation for US. A decision to get involved should not be half hearted--it needs to be preparation to go to 100% if required. Putin would at the least attempt to bluff US-- so US would need to be clear that his bluff will be called.
The best way to contain conflict-- is for Putin to be in no doubt that US is ultra serious.In other words--out bully the bully.

[fathertime]

o 100% if required. Putin would at the least attempt to bluff US-- so US would need to be clear that his bluff will be called.
The best way to contain conflict-- is for Putin to be in no doubt that US is ultra serious.In other words--out bully the bully.

We would be wasting our time and risking a wider war...Putin would see the US bluff and do whatever he is going to do....the US is not and will not be THAT interested in Ukraine.   Had this been Canada or Mexico, it wouldn't be a bluff, but for Ukraine it is, Putin Knows it, Obama knows it, the EU representatives know it...and that is a reason nothing of the sort will be happening.


Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

If the US instigated "regime change", as most pro Putinists believe, then why would they just walk away?  That makes no sense.

[Faux Pas]

Sad but true

Wild a$$ guess, what are the probabilities he uses it against us if hypothetically he faced a United West (say under a President Walker or Bush or Clinton)?

United West wouldn't make any difference IMHO. When he starts to face defeat or lose power there is no telling what that maniac is capable of. I don't know if he's capable of launching a nuke but, he wouldn't have to launch but one and it's game over or, give one to an enemy of the U.S.

My squawking reference--if Ukraine was able to push back Russian forces -then Putin would want to negotiate to hold what he has.

I have commented previously on US military( I would be very happy to have them there)-- it is tricky situation for US. A decision to get involved should not be half hearted--it needs to be preparation to go to 100% if required. Putin would at the least attempt to bluff US-- so US would need to be clear that his bluff will be called.
The best way to contain conflict-- is for Putin to be in no doubt that US is ultra serious.In other words--out bully the bully.

IMHO, the only card the U.S. can play at this point is to arm Ukraine to the teeth and assist any country willing to help Ukraine. U.S. boots on the ground even through NATO or the UN isn't an option. Any military confrontation directly between the U.S. and Russia will still bring the world to the brink. I'm not willing to risk that, are you?

[AkMike]

Western troops could just be there on vacation!

 Hey it works both ways.

[lordtiberius]

Respect to FP

[Brasscasing]

United West wouldn't make any difference IMHO. When he starts to face defeat or lose power there is no telling what that maniac is capable of. I don't know if he's capable of launching a nuke but, he wouldn't have to launch but one and it's game over or, give one to an enemy of the U.S.

IMHO, the only card the U.S. can play at this point is to arm Ukraine to the teeth and assist any country willing to help Ukraine.[ U.S. boots on the ground even through NATO or the UN isn't an option. Any military confrontation directly between the U.S. and Russia will still bring the world to the brink. I'm not willing to risk that, are you?

Nukes are not an option for Putin or Russia. He cannot win a preemptive strategic attack and if he/Russia were to deploy a tactical nuke the response would be the same.

Exactly, arm Ukraine to the teeth and use contractors to train them or partner countries like Canada, Australia or the UK.

I'm of the opinion we're already in a "pay now or pay later" situation. Direct confrontation is inevitable, whether U.S. or NATO. If not stopped now sooner or later Putin will go all in on either Ukraine or some other FSU country.

I doubt anything will happen until Washington has a new administration though. Obama's trying desperately to finish his term without becoming involved in a major European war.

A lot of people are going to die while he tries to save what's left of his presidency and legacy.

“Some say Ukraine cannot defeat Russia militarily. That is the wrong question. The right question is: If we help Ukrainians increase the military cost to the Russian forces that have invaded their country, how long can Putin sustain a war that he tells his people is not happening?” McCain said during the same conference."

http://www.stripes.com/news/us-inching-toward-sending-arms-to-ukraine-1.331182

This has always been the 'right question'. Further, Ukraine has not been the pushover Putin assumed it was going to be (no thanks to the EU, NATO or the US). Ukraine may well end up being Putin's Afghanistan.

Brass

[AC]

Russian credit rating downgraded to 'junk' by Moody's agency
     
All three major credit agencies now rate Russia's credit status as junk

Russia's struggling economy has been hit by news that all three major credit rating agencies have labeled Russia's rating, 'junk'.

American firm Moody's said the decision was based on 'the continuing crisis in Ukraine and the recent oil price and exchange rate shocks'.

Russia's rating has already been downgraded to junk by the other two main credit agencies - Fitch and Standard & Poor's


http://uatoday.tv/business/russian-credit-rating-downgraded-to-junk-by-moody-s-agency-410875.html


 Flush twice.. it's a long ways to Moscow!

Putinochio doesn't care.  He's sitting pretty financially and 80% of the lemmings in Russia still believe whatever he tells them.  They're still convinced it's a western conspiracy and if only they can take Ukraine back everything will return to normal.

[AC]

United West wouldn't make any difference IMHO. When he starts to face defeat or lose power there is no telling what that maniac is capable of. I don't know if he's capable of launching a nuke but, he wouldn't have to launch but one and it's game over or, give one to an enemy of the U.S.

I don't follow you here.  It's game over for Putin?  Or game over for the World?  Who is it game over for?

Not than any of us want Nuclear war but I believe the US is in a much better position to "win" that confrontation.

I can see Moscow smoldering in ruins right now and 20% of the Russian population gone forever.

[Brasscasing]

John McCain sums up the Ukraine situation...

 “I believe that the German chancellor and the president of France legitimized for the first time in 70 years the dismemberment of a country in Europe. It's shameful,” McCain said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “Vladimir Putin has not paid any price. Even the cease-fire was violated.”

“This is a shameful chapter. I'm ashamed of my country, I'm ashamed of my president, and I'm ashamed of myself that I haven't done more to help these people,” he added. “It is really, really heartbreaking.”

“Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine not to be part of Europe. And he is succeeding in doing so. He's put enormous pressure on the Baltics, not to mention Moldova and continued occupation of Georgia as well. This is really a dark chapter in the history of our alliance.”

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/233442-mccain-im-ashamed-of-my-country

Pretty well sums up my feelings towards Canada (and it's allies) as well.

Shame on us all.

Brass