The Russian/Syrian connection thread

[BillyB]

  What I posted above was claimed by Russia a few months ago.  The rest of the world laughed and this incident just added to that.

Yes, it is easy to laugh that claim off. American ships have some of the best defense mechanisms to counter attacks, especially from cruise missiles capable of downing a ship. The SU 24 is a big plane and may be able to carry a big enough missile to sink a ship from a far distance since the plane wouldn't be able to get close enough before getting destroyed. There is belief that China recently developed a hypersonic cruise missile. Our military doesn't have adequate defenses to counter missiles that are that blazing fast. If Russia has developed one and can be carried by an SU 24, then it is no laughing matter.

I didn't know who was responsible for the death of the pilots.  Was it the jets or was it ground fire?

One of the pilots was killed by ground fire while parachuting. The other pilot's fate is still unclear but a little birdie told me he was picked up by ISIS and will be well taken care of. Don't be surprised if you see the pilot on tv denouncing Russia's aggression in Syria and/or getting his head chopped off.

[Gator]

I didn't know who was responsible for the death of the pilots.  Was it the jets or was it ground fire?

The two pilots  had to be alive to be able to eject.  With all the firing by rebels from the ground, one must assume ground fire killed the one pilot (I saw one report saying he was from Chelyabinsk area). 

Factual details are still vague.   Supposedly the rebels are still searching for the live pilot.  If they find him, I hope they exchange him  for prisoners held by Assad.  If the rebels match an ISIS atrocity such  as burning  the pilot in a cage, Russia will lay waste to their territory.   

[Gator]

Turkey's actions is very extreme for violating the airspace. Especially if it is true that the Russian jet was brought down buy Turkish jets. I suspect something else is at play that nobody is talking about.

Maybe it is the connection between Turkey and the specific people under attack by Russia.  This area of Syria where the action occurred is settled by Turkmen. 

Syrian Turkmen  are not Turkoman from Turkistan.  They are ethnic Turkic people who migrated from Turkey to this area of Syria over a thousand years, hence the name Syrian Turkmen.  They number from 200,000 to possibly over one million. 

Turkey has supported this enclave of  kindred people in the current civil war against Assad.  Perhaps Turkey considered the Russian bombings to be an attack on its own people.  For sure, Turkey wants Assad removed from power. 

[Belvis]

 The other pilot's fate is still unclear but a little birdie told me he was picked up by ISIS and will be well taken care of. Don't be surprised if you see the pilot on tv denouncing Russia's aggression in Syria and/or getting his head chopped off.

Your dream has failed. Kill the lying birdie )

[2tallbill]

Pilot from Russian jet back at base
Sky News

One of the pilots of the Russian jet that was shot down by Turkey was rescued
and is back at his base, Russia's defence minister has said.

Sergei Shoigu said the flight engineer was extracted after a 12 hour mission
by special forces on the ground in Syria.

- See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/11/25/turkey-warned-russian-jet-10-times--us.html#sthash.uZmu3yGb.dpuf
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/11/25/turkey-warned-russian-jet-10-times--us.html

[2tallbill]

Paris attack ringleader returned to scene of crime
Reuters

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/paris-attack-ringleader-returned-scene-crime-prosecutor-183847157.html

[Brasscasing]

After 36 hours neither Turkey or Russia are making war noises (at this point).

I think NATO countries are probably telling Turkey you've made your point but no more downing Russian planes and Russia realizes that as far as Syria goes they need Turkey to at least not interfere with their combat operations which, if the two countries became belligerents would be greatly more complicated.

Further, the economic ties between the two countries are just too intertwined to be severed very easily (Turkey has the upper hand in this department as well).

Russia's now stated that they're moving in SAMs to Syria. I'm sure I was reading the Russians had already done this months ago. So maybe it was BS then and now they're really doing it, who knows.

One thing is for sure. Regardless of the Russian bluster and denials they got a wee crack upside the snout yesterday and they know it. This single act by the Turks has caused more damage to the Putin mystique/legend than a decade of sanctions and tough talk from the other EU/NATO countries could have possibly achieved.

My guess would be that once the Russians have deployed whatever defensive measures they think adequate they'll resume overflying Turkish airspace again.

Stay tuned...

Brass

[BillyB]

Your dream has failed. Kill the lying birdie )

 I don't want to kill the little birdie. He's human and makes mistakes sometimes. The Russian special forces did a good job finding him before the enemy. The flight engineer did even a better job in hiding from the enemy but making it easy enough for the Russian special forces to find him.

[Belvis]

The conflict between Turkey-Russia will be settled down after some war of words. Main result of shot down aircraft is shown in the picture below.  Russia has got the weighty argument for deployment of S400 long range anti aircraft missile system, and will be able to control a substantial part of the Middle East air space, including Turkey border. I doubt the system will be fired, however its presence gives a good starting position at negotiations about fate of post-war Syria.

[deccie]

Still  blaming MSF for the hospital debacle Brass?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-26/us-probe-says-kunduz-hospital-strike-was-tragic-accident/6974714

[Gator]

Listening to some "talking heads" today, they confirmed what I wrote about the ethnic kinship between Turkey and the Syrian Turkmen,  Even more important, Turkey needs the Turkmen as a buffer to stop the Kurds to the east. 

[deccie]

After 36 hours neither Turkey or Russia are making war noises (at this point).

I think NATO countries are probably telling Turkey you've made your point but no more downing Russian planes and Russia realizes that as far as Syria goes they need Turkey to at least not interfere with their combat operations which, if the two countries became belligerents would be greatly more complicated.

Further, the economic ties between the two countries are just too intertwined to be severed very easily (Turkey has the upper hand in this department as well).

Russia's now stated that they're moving in SAMs to Syria. I'm sure I was reading the Russians had already done this months ago. So maybe it was BS then and now they're really doing it, who knows.

One thing is for sure. Regardless of the Russian bluster and denials they got a wee crack upside the snout yesterday and they know it. This single act by the Turks has caused more damage to the Putin mystique/legend than a decade of sanctions and tough talk from the other EU/NATO countries could have possibly achieved.

My guess would be that once the Russians have deployed whatever defensive measures they think adequate they'll resume overflying Turkish airspace again.

Stay tuned...

Brass

Well, the planned pipeline has already been announced as cancelled.
Lavrov has cancelled his visit.

Lavrov has advised Russians to cancel travel plans to Turkey and they are planning punitive measures against companies selling package holidays to there. Russians were big spenders in both Turkey and Egypt but it looks like both markets will be well down this year.

Funny how you think the shooting down of one cold war era jet damages Putin yet when Turkey had their own aircraft shot down that did nothing to the image of the Turkish leader???

Come on , the Su24 is a strike aircraft and not a new one. In part the design is based on the F-111 - long retired from the US inventory. That makes it quite vulnerable to aircraft like the F-16.

If it was the latest SU being shot down or a Tu-160 I might a agree with you. But they lost a few 24's in the Ossetian wars as well.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/08/idUSL8262192#75s8mIk6LMd0gxm8.97

[deccie]

Listening to some "talking heads" today, they confirmed what I wrote about the ethnic kinship between Turkey and the Syrian Turkmen,  Even more important, Turkey needs the Turkmen as a buffer to stop the Kurds to the east.

Yes, I would say the Kurdish issue is quite key to what  is going on here.

[Brasscasing]

Still  blaming MSF for the hospital debacle Brass?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-26/us-probe-says-kunduz-hospital-strike-was-tragic-accident/6974714

No spin involved. It hasn't been determined if anything was done wrong. That's why the investigations are being conducted. You've just automatically defaulted to your  blame America routine. I'll reserve judgment until the circumstances surrounding the incident have been determined.

I'll wait for the results of the investigation.

In the real world there is no culpability until guilt is assigned. That's done through proper investigation. As I've already stated if the pilot was taking fire from that building, even if it was a hospital, he would be justified in returning fire. NATO, US ROEs make that clear.

US probe finds Kunduz hospital strike was tragic accident caused by human error

..."This was a tragic mistake. US forces would never intentionally strike a hospital or other protected facilities," General Campbell said at a Pentagon news conference, releasing the results of the US investigation."...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-26/us-probe-says-kunduz-hospital-strike-was-tragic-accident/6974714

So, as we see, a long way from your alluding to Kunduz as being a war crime and  a US cover up.

A determination has been reached and those responsible for the error are suspended and could face disciplinary action.

The system has worked...

..."A United States investigation has found that the deadly air strike in Afghanistan that destroyed a hospital run by Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) was a tragic and avoidable accident caused primarily by human error, a top US military commander said.

Some US personnel were suspended and could face disciplinary action in the incident after failing to follow US rules of engagement in a war zone, said US Army General John Campbell, who leads international forces in Afghanistan.

It remained unclear whether the US military, even as it expressed remorse and wholly accepted blame, would be able to quickly mend its image in Afghanistan and elsewhere after the attack, which killed 30 people."...

The results of this inquiry doesn't condemn my position. It vindicates my position that instead of defaulting to immediate assertions of a war crime let the investigation(s) run their course.

If anything, the results of this inquiry has reaffirmed my faith in the system.

Brass

[Gator]

Yes, I would say the Kurdish issue is quite key to what  is going on here.

Russia may decide to arm the Kurds in a proxy war against Turkey.

[Brasscasing]

Well, the planned pipeline has already been announced as cancelled.
Lavrov has cancelled his visit.

Lavrov has advised Russians to cancel travel plans to Turkey and they are planning punitive measures against companies selling package holidays to there. Russians were big spenders in both Turkey and Egypt but it looks like both markets will be well down this year.

Funny how you think the shooting down of one cold war era jet damages Putin yet when Turkey had their own aircraft shot down that did nothing to the image of the Turkish leader???

Come on , the Su24 is a strike aircraft and not a new one. In part the design is based on the F-111 - long retired from the US inventory. That makes it quite vulnerable to aircraft like the F-16.

If it was the latest SU being shot down or a Tu-160 I might a agree with you. But they lost a few 24's in the Ossetian wars as well.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/08/idUSL8262192#75s8mIk6LMd0gxm8.97

We're going to find out soon enough. Sh*t like this is bad for Putin's bad boy image.

The Russian population will be looking to Putin for pay back and it's going to have to come across as something like this...

"Putin single handedly destroys entire Turkish Air Force for shooting down one SU-24"

... or words to that effect.

It's the downside to telling your citizens "I am invincible" when you're a dictator.

Brass

[jone]

Russia may decide to arm the Kurds in a proxy war against Turkey.

That would open up a shooting war.  And suck Russia in.

[Gator]

Further, the economic ties between the two countries are just too intertwined to be severed very easily (Turkey has the upper hand in this department as well).

It cuts both ways.  Moscow's cancellation of travel of Russians  to Turkey could cost Turkey $3 billion per year.  Any RWD member who has holidayed in Antalya, also known as the Russian Riviera,  will understand the enormity of this adverse impact on Turkey.

I am not sure how much gas Russia supplies to Turkey.  Maybe Turkey has the upper hand because  Russia needs the revenue considering the long-term prospects for low oil prices.   And maybe Turkey can replace Russian gas with Middle East sources. 

Regardless of the Russian bluster and denials they got a wee crack upside the snout yesterday and they know it. This single act by the Turks has caused more damage to the Putin mystique/legend than a decade of sanctions and tough talk from the other EU/NATO countries could have possibly achieved.

Putin took a short-term "wee" hit,  yet he is not detouring from his long-term strategy.   That strategy?  Russia working with Iran can drive the agenda in the Middle East. 

The first step is to keep Assad in power.  The next step is to improve the relationship with Europe.  Concurrently, Russia  will take a leading role if not the lead to  curtail ISIS.  Russia's partner Iran has work to do.  First, Iran forges an even  closer alliance with the Mesopotamian Shi'ite (formerly Iraq).  Iran then becomes nuclear armed.
 
These goals will take many years to accomplish.  Yet, just making progress in these directions would compel the oil-rich Gulf states to reach an agreement with Russia and Iran.  Russia would eventually be in position to control world oil prices. 

Farfetched, you say.  Who will stop Russia?   Yesterday, Hollande met with Obama to obtain American support.  Today, Hollande meets with Merkel.   Tomorrow, Hollande will meet with Putin.  Who will be the most helpful to Hollande?  Certainly not Obama as he gave Hollande nothing yesterday other than continuing the US commitment to Climate Change.  The phrase "leading from behind"  to describe Obama is so apt. 

I predict Putin will support Hollande in some manner, and Putin will exact something in exchange.  This is the beginning of an improved  relationship with Europe that I mentioned earlier.

Critical discourse is welcome.

[Gator]

That would open up a shooting war.  And suck Russia in.

America supplied some rebel groups in Syria and did not get sucked in.  We did it in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation and never got sucked in.  The Soviets supplied North Vietnam and never got sucked in. 

The downside is that Turkey may mount a huge offensive against the Kurds. 

It will take a couple of years to supply the Kurds given all that is involved and the parties who would oppose it. 

[jone]

America supplied some rebel groups in Syria and did not get sucked in.  We did it in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation and never got sucked in.  The Soviets supplied North Vietnam and never got sucked in. 

The downside is that Turkey may mount a huge offensive against the Kurds. 

It will take a couple of years to supply the Kurds given all that is involved and the parties who would oppose it.

Gator, I respect your opinion.  But I stand by mine.  We have seen the Russian involvement in Ukraine.  When the locals started losing the Russians brought in their armies.

[Gator]

Gator, I respect your opinion.  But I stand by mine.  We have seen the Russian involvement in Ukraine.  When the locals started losing the Russians brought in their armies.

And I contend Putin would stand by as Turkey attacked the Kurds in force.  The Kurds are not in Putin's strategy.  He would arm the Kurds as revenge. 

The Kurds do not need much in arms to put up a strong resistance.  Look at what they have done with so little. 

[Brasscasing]

It cuts both ways.  Moscow's cancellation of travel of Russians  to Turkey could cost Turkey $3 billion per year.  Any RWD member who has holidayed in Antalya, also known as the Russian Riviera,  will understand the enormity of this adverse impact on Turkey.

My thoughts on the tourist aspect is $3 billion would be a hit to the Turkish tourist trade but not insurmountable. I doubt it would come close to crashing their economy for instance.

Further, not having the Russian Riviera (combined with the recent lose of Egypt as a tourist mecca) would impact the Russian tourist/airline industry more than the Turks I would think.

I am not sure how much gas Russia supplies to Turkey.  Maybe Turkey has the upper hand because  Russia needs the revenue considering the long-term prospects for low oil prices.   And maybe Turkey can replace Russian gas with Middle East sources. 

About 20% of Gazprom's revenue comes from supplying Turkey and Turkey could find alternative supply fairly quickly if Russia did try to turn off the spigot. No advantage to Russia there, imo.

Putin took a short-term "wee" hit,  yet he is not detouring from his long-term strategy.   That strategy?  Russia working with Iran can drive the agenda in the Middle East. 

He has no choice but to continue with whatever he was doing prior to yesterday. Where the hit landed was his credibility. The myth that he's invincible and by extension the Russian Federation is unstoppable. Putin's had his way on the world stage with aggression and bullying for years without consequences. Well, yesterday there were consequences. The Turks pushed back.

We saw his reaction during his speech/interviews/announcements. He was emotional. Part of the Putin mystique is his ice like demeanor. There are even cartoons lampooning him for it.

Like most dictators he's become used to having his way and doesn't like being crossed. It's bad for his tough guy image.

I'd be interested in Mendy's take on this;

Has this incident damaged Putin's veneer of being unbeatable with the Russian population?

The first step is to keep Assad in power.  The next step is to improve the relationship with Europe.  Concurrently, Russia  will take a leading role if not the lead to  curtail ISIS.  Russia's partner Iran has work to do.  First, Iran forges an even  closer alliance with the Mesopotamian Shi'ite (formerly Iraq).  Iran then becomes nuclear armed.
 
These goals will take many years to accomplish.  Yet, just making progress in these directions would compel the oil-rich Gulf states to reach an agreement with Russia and Iran.  Russia would eventually be in position to control world oil prices. 

Farfetched, you say.  Who will stop Russia?   Yesterday, Hollande met with Obama to obtain American support.  Today, Hollande meets with Merkel.   Tomorrow, Hollande will meet with Putin.  Who will be the most helpful to Hollande?  Certainly not Obama as he gave Hollande nothing yesterday other than continuing the US commitment to Climate Change.  The phrase "leading from behind"  to describe Obama is so apt. 

I predict Putin will support Hollande in some manner, and Putin will exact something in exchange.  This is the beginning of an improved  relationship with Europe that I mentioned earlier.

Critical discourse is welcome.

I don't think that's far fetched at all. Gator. He has plans to forge a new empire and must make alliances and have a strategy to do so.

What I'm saying is due to the current lack of resolve and leadership in the West he's been allowed to run rough shod over pretty well any country/body who's got in his way.

Will that change because of one jet? Probably not. But it caught Russia off guard and it received a lot of attention. From the Russian political/media reaction it more or less stunned them.

If a year from now there is more resistance (read new President) to his wars of conquest he may find his quest for empire crumbling to dust around him along with the bad optics that goes along with it.

In my opinion the Russian people won't tolerate their Russian demi-god (Putin) being shown as vulnerable very well. They had what may be their first real taste of that yesterday.

Brass

[jone]

Brass,

.... Absolute disbelief that Turkey would be an aggressor against Russia.  ..... Absolute condemnation of the Turkish government by the Russian populace.

I would be surprised if Putin's rating at home took even a hiccup.  If you would listen to the reports from Syria, you would hear Russia playing the aggreived.  More fodder for the PR cannons helping the plot line that Russia is the victim. 

This is the way it is being played out at home. 

[alex330]

Looks like Putin is already taking revenge by bombing the Turkish brothers in Syria. Same region where the West is discussing a no fly zone that would require possible US troops on the ground to secure.

http://news.yahoo.com/heavy-russia-raids-syria-area-where-plane-downed-003111296.html

Maybe Turkey will send in little green men to protect it's kin?

[fathertime]

Thanks to Wikileaks, it would appear that a whole bunch of outside countries (including the USA) have been plotting to overthrow the Syrian govt. for quite some time....probably just for their own silly little reasons...obviously it doesn't have to do with the will of the Syrians.


I call into question most of what the mainstream media reports as it pertains to Assad. 

http://www.mintpressnews.com/wikileaks-reveals-saudi-arabia-turkey-qatar-secret-anti-syria-plot/211542/


WikiLeaks Reveals Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Qatar Secret Anti-Syria Plot


The whistleblower website WikiLeaks says that leaked documents from Saudi ministries revealed that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey had a secret deal three years ago to topple the Syrian government.......

.......WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange told Rossiya-1 (Russia 1) TV channel on Sunday that the United States, France, and Britain had also been involved in the secret deal in 2012.



Fathertime!