New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border

[Chelseaboy]

Well,

       Sky news is now making the situation in Ukraine their main headline..even above Brexit.

They have confirmed that Trump has cancelled his planned meeting with Mad Vlad because of the Russians actions .

Poroshenko has given an interview to Sky news,showing them photo's of the alleged Russian Tanks building-up near the Ukraine border and asking the whole of the west ( including Australia..Jay ..he mentioned your country as well as the normal suspects) to unite against Russia.

[Trenchcoat]

If there's a massive tank build up then Russia is likely to invade soon. It tends to be expensive to locate such a large force in to an area. I'm guessing with not a great economy Putin will not want to waste that cost of doing so. If he waits it gives time for Ukraine to try and build up forces to counter and dig in more so were greater help forthcoming.

The gas to Ukraine is probably of little concern to Putin. Most of the time a lot of it went unpaid, pipelite syphon ed,  etc. Plus if he invades he can still sell the gas to Ukrainians, it doesn't stop that. That only stops if Ukrainian and stop a Russian advance which is probably unlikely. I think Ukraine could cause significant damage potentially due to the training up and better equipment it has been getting but I think they'll lack the army size to win against Russia not to metikn much loss of territory during a conflict will hamper their ability to access needed resources.

Gas sales are likely to be far higher during winter. This may not bother Putin too much. Spring as Krimster previously suggested would make strategic sense but with modern warfare equipment Putin may prefer to get straight to it and mount a winter offensive within hours, days, weeks - who knows.

[southernX]

so I want to go on record now
and tell all the westerners living in or owning property in Ukraine
unless you are in the north western part of Ukraine, sometime within the next 4 years, you're going to be living in Russia!
plan ahead accordingly
and I'm a guy who used to live in Crimea who saw this exact same thing coming 10 years ago
IT'S WHY I LEFT!!!!

this i agree with
highly likly to occur in the present world situation , there is no cohesive leadership or strategy  to deal with putin ,

all the major players are focused on internal issues


china is also causing a nice diversion locally

its a prime time to strike

[msmob]

If there's a massive tank build up then Russia is likely to invade soon. It tends to be expensive to locate such a large force in to an area. I'm guessing with not a great economy Putin will not want to waste that cost of doing so. If he waits it gives time for Ukraine to try and build up forces to counter and dig in more so were greater help forthcoming.

The gas to Ukraine is probably of little concern to Putin. Most of the time a lot of it went unpaid, pipelite syphon ed,  etc. Plus if he invades he can still sell the gas to Ukrainians, it doesn't stop that. That only stops if Ukrainian and stop a Russian advance which is probably unlikely. I think Ukraine could cause significant damage potentially due to the training up and better equipment it has been getting but I think they'll lack the army size to win against Russia not to metikn much loss of territory during a conflict will hamper their ability to access needed resources.

Gas sales are likely to be far higher during winter. This may not bother Putin too much. Spring as Krimster previously suggested would make strategic sense but with modern warfare equipment Putin may prefer to get straight to it and mount a winter offensive within hours, days, weeks - who knows.

OK Trenchie,

Are we going to add militarily inept to to your skills re dating and 'knowledge' of any detrimental effect of 'brexit' - every time the Ruskies wind up Ukraine ?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35532842 from 2016

For sure, the seizure of 3 UA vessels, capturing of UA personnel and their 'confessions' on RU tv are provocative




 

[Trenchcoat]

I don't say action should be taken because I'm pro Ukrainian & anti-Russian, I'm not. I'm pragmatic on where I date rather than biased towards a particular nation through personal liking or whatever. Even if I were dating a girl in Russia or Ukraine I wouldn't let that colour my judgement. I've been to Moscow and it's a fair enough city & people to date & maintain relations with.

Thing is Mobers an invasion of Ukraine could be bad for all of us on here. It could bring down a new Iron Curtain with Russia, Ukraine & Belarus behind it and WM all stuck on the outside. An invasion could spell a new cold war with Visa bans on travel to Russia & vice versa to all western nations. They might also ban their citizens from moving abroad, marrying WM, etc. If Ukraine is invaded it will become a part of Russia and if Lucashenko becomes unsteady or gets toppled in Belarus, Russia will move in there too.

I really do think that NATO moving into Ukraine would be thd best response, it's what it was set up for. It would steady the situation and probably help bring a resolution to the table of tge present problem areas in Ukraine. I for one don't really see the point of NATO existing with pristine hardware sat around doing nothing but to give it a polish every now and again. It's an appropriate response to the situation that I think would help bring a civilised nature to the region.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukraine has now banned Russian men aged 16-60 from entering the country.

[rwd123]

Ukraine has now banned Russian men aged 16-60 from entering the country.

It seems Russia won't go tit for tat as they did with direct airline flights.

http://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-bans-russian-men-from-entering-ukraine-escalating-crisis/29629790.html

This is a fairly major escalation. I'm guessing there's plenty of Russian businessmen who will need to make alternative arrangements so am curious how it impacts both Russian and Ukrainian businesses.

[Nightwish]

I don't say action should be taken because I'm pro Ukrainian & anti-Russian, I'm not. I'm pragmatic on where I date rather than biased towards a particular nation through personal liking or whatever. Even if I were dating a girl in Russia or Ukraine I wouldn't let that colour my judgement. I've been to Moscow and it's a fair enough city & people to date & maintain relations with.

Thing is Mobers an invasion of Ukraine could be bad for all of us on here. It could bring down a new Iron Curtain with Russia, Ukraine & Belarus behind it and WM all stuck on the outside. An invasion could spell a new cold war with Visa bans on travel to Russia & vice versa to all western nations. They might also ban their citizens from moving abroad, marrying WM, etc. If Ukraine is invaded it will become a part of Russia and if Lucashenko becomes unsteady or gets toppled in Belarus, Russia will move in there too.

I really do think that NATO moving into Ukraine would be thd best response, it's what it was set up for. It would steady the situation and probably help bring a resolution to the table of tge present problem areas in Ukraine. I for one don't really see the point of NATO existing with pristine hardware sat around doing nothing but to give it a polish every now and again. It's an appropriate response to the situation that I think would help bring a civilised nature to the region.

I wasn't aware Ukraine was a member of NATO?  Is this new and unknown to the public information you provide? or.. You don't really know what NATO is about? How would an invasion on Ukraine (who is not a memberstate) trigger article 5?

[JayH]

Some earlier posts alluded to the Russian actions being legal --where by any interpretation of reality it is clear one illegal action upon another.
What should happen -- the Russians ought to be told that no one recognises Crimean waters as Russian territory -- and any attempt to interfere with anyone will be met by lethal force.
Call every Russian bluff -- and be prepared to flatten every air base and ship within range that  has any part of attempting to interfere.
Spell that out NOW to Putin -- time to start playing by your own rules and not Russia/'s.

The story below explains the legal situation --which Russia has zero interest in complying with any norms-either maritime or of the civilised world

Russian attack on Ukrainian ships: who has a right to do what in the Azov Sea

Ukraine has freedom of navigation in the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait. It was acting in accordance with all existing international treaties.

On the contrary, in the FSB’s own description, Russia had arbitrarily attempted to stop Ukraine from exercising the rights it has under those treaties. And attempting to do so, engaged in an act of aggression, ramming into the Ukrainian tugboat in the morning before the Ukrainian fleet approached the Kerch Strait (A on the map).

And in the end, contrary to its own claims, used lethal force against Ukrainian Navy ships outside of its own territorial waters, and outside of the territorial waters of the Crimean peninsula it had occupied (B on the map).

Legal nihilism, unprovoked aggression, and FSB lies. Some things never change.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2018/11/30/russian-attack-on-ukrainian-ships-who-has-a-right-to-do-what-in-the-azov-sea/?fbclid=IwAR0UjRCZS68-MwnkOoyWnjf2N6_9vGOeC0dL3R_r6lAkO2Js-SJZegqKpnE

[Trenchcoat]

I wasn't aware Ukraine was a member of NATO?  Is this new and unknown to the public information you provide? or.. You don't really know what NATO is about? How would an invasion on Ukraine (who is not a memberstate) trigger article 5?

No its not a member state but it's ridiculous for it to stand aside where it's in everyone's best interest for it to intervene. That shouldn't be an issue, it should press to make use of itself and relieve itself of its near 3 decade dormant status. That's why few members wish to stump up the necessary money they should have been for it as for too many years now it has shown too little reason for being.

[GQBlues]

No its not a member state but it's ridiculous for it to stand aside where it's in everyone's best interest for it to intervene. That shouldn't be an issue, it should press to make use of itself and relieve itself of its near 3 decade dormant status. That's why few members wish to stump up the necessary money they should have been for it as for too many years now it has shown too little reason for being.

It is? Do you mind elaborating on this a bit?

[Nightwish]

No its not a member state but it's ridiculous for it to stand aside where it's in everyone's best interest for it to intervene. That shouldn't be an issue, it should press to make use of itself and relieve itself of its near 3 decade dormant status. That's why few members wish to stump up the necessary money they should have been for it as for too many years now it has shown too little reason for being.

mm but you say Nato, and Nato as a coalition would never do that, you really think Turkey would support such an action? Because when you say NATO you are talking about a coalition that has an agreement to mutually defend membership states in case of a outside threat to their sovereign borders.

You see there is a reason NATO never invoked article 5, no membership state has asked for it, as far as we know.

Wrong of me I noticed, it was invoked after 9/11, yet US decided to invade Afghanistan alone.

They are not obligated to act on an invasion or attack on a third part

- If you don't realize this yourself, this would be UN's task if they could get it through the security council, which they never will with Russia and China at the same table.

Hence the coalitions that invaded/meddled in Kuwait and Irak wasn't made up as Nato forces even though most countries was accounted for in one way or another and several others joined in.

So the only way to get foreign troops on the ground in Ukraine would be by invitation by Ukraine and as a completely new coalition for this purpose. 

Poland did at one point say they would help out Ukraine in case of invasion from Russia, and they scrambled quite a big army and "rattled their chains" (performed "exercises") near the border to both Kaliningrad and Ukraine to show force. How much they really meant by it is though unknown.

[Trenchcoat]

It seems Russia won't go tit for tat as they did with direct airline flights.

http://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-bans-russian-men-from-entering-ukraine-escalating-crisis/29629790.html

This is a fairly major escalation. I'm guessing there's plenty of Russian businessmen who will need to make alternative arrangements so am curious how it impacts both Russian and Ukrainian businesses.

If there planning to invade in the next few weeks or so it won't be an issue. No reason to do a tit for tat with a country that may soon no longer exist.

If so we can then go go back to calling it 'The' Ukraine instead of Ukraine

[msmob]

If there planning to invade in the next few weeks or so it won't be an issue. No reason to do a tit for tat with a country that may soon no longer exist.

If so we can then go go back to calling it 'The' Ukraine instead of Ukraine

I apologise to any reader thinking the attempts at inane humour of Trenchie represent other Brits.   

[krimster2]

straight outa Krim,

The closure of the Sea of Azov is going to have serious economic consequences for Ukraine, an estimated 2% slowdown in the GDP, most of it felt in the south east...

In 2018, the Mariupol and Berdyansk ports, the two most important on the Azov Sea, received approximately 5 million tons and 1.6 million tons of goods, respectively.

They are now effectively blocked by Russia, with Ukrainian vessels being barred from leaving and entering Azov Sea. Currently, 35 ships cannot get to their final destinations

A total of 18 vessels cannot enter the Azov Sea from the Black Sea to get the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and nine cannot exit the Azov Sea. Another eight ships remain moored in the ports. Only ships bound for Russian ports on the Sea of Azov are being allowed through the Kerch Strait by the Russians

Two large Mariupol-based firms owned by billionaire oligarch Rinat Akhmetov — Ilyich Iron and Steel Works of Mariupol and AzovStal — are particularly dependent on the port in Mariupol to ship their finished goods to consumers. And besides steel, the ports are also critical export conduits for other top Ukrainian industries: agriculture and coal.

 roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s steel exports (or approximately 5 percent of total exports), and 5 percent of its grain exports pass through the Azov ports.

With a full blockade, the (Azov) ports will lose up to $2 billion

without Azov Sea shipping, Ukraine would lose 2 percent of its gross domestic product.

aaaannnnnnnnnddd then next year Nord Stream 2 comes online and Ukraine will lose its gas transit fee to Europe which is 3% of its GDP, and Russia will demand a higher price from Ukraine, and maybe pay in advance, expect frequent gas disruptions throughout Ukraine in 2020 adding another 5% drop in GDP...

$1 = 50 UAH end of 2020
there will be much tougher currency controls in Ukraine
no real estate sales in dollars, etc., UAH only, etc

[rwd123]

The closure of the Sea of Azov is going to have serious economic consequences for Ukraine, an estimated 2% slowdown in the GDP, most of it felt in the south

I would have guessed more than 2%. Maybe the port in Odessa is about to get really busy...

[Jamesukjames]

Sadly this is what will happen either a lot of sabre rattling and not much action or Russia will invade Ukraine and Belarus and NATO will do nothing but control the borders of the former Ukraine.  Russian and Belarus border is already there.  The Ukranian to Russian border is too long to defend.  People along the border are both Russain and Ukrainian so NATO will be entering a cival war and it's hard 5 years to do so in the eastern Ukraine.  NATO stood by and watched the former Yugoslavia self distruct.  People who have never been in battle are pro war.  Logistics how is NATO going to land and supply it's troops the distances are massive.  You want to go up against the Russian army be my guest you can parachute in we need pathfinders trust me you email soldiers will crawl away.

[msmob]

Sadly this is what will happen either a lot of sabre rattling and not much action or Russia will invade Ukraine and Belarus and NATO will do nothing but control the borders of the former Ukraine.  Russian and Belarus border is already there.  The Ukranian to Russian border is too long to defend.  People along the border are both Russain and Ukrainian so NATO will be entering a cival war and it's hard 5 years to do so in the eastern Ukraine.  NATO stood by and watched the former Yugoslavia self distruct.  People who have never been in battle are pro war.  Logistics how is NATO going to land and supply it's troops the distances are massive.  You want to go up against the Russian army be my guest you can parachute in we need pathfinders trust me you email soldiers will crawl away.

Well ..THAT was quite an 'intro'

I'm guessing the UK part of your 'nick' is Ukraine rather than United Kingdom

Perhaps you might like to introduce yourself ?

[krimster2]

I would think that Europeans would understand that when Nord Stream 2 and South Stream will be complete in 2019 that they are "signing Ukraine's Death Warrant" by accepting gas without depending on Ukrainian transit
so I can only assume that this is tacit European approval of Russia reabsorbing Ukraine, since Ukraine is not at all vital to Europe's economic interests, but Russian gas is...

Russia has a unique window of opportunity for seizing Ukraine
a lot of upsides for doing this, and as long as Trump is commander in chief, very little down side

if the West gives Russia any trouble, or refuses to remove sanctions use Russian proxies in Syria to disrupt mideast oil and gas pipelines

this past September, was the largest military exercise in Russia's history, 300,000 men
this was the test run for the full invasion of Ukraine, + troops from other directions
goal is to take Odessa in 4 days

[DaveNY]

Sadly this is what will happen either a lot of sabre rattling and not much action or Russia will invade Ukraine and Belarus and NATO will do nothing but control the borders of the former Ukraine.  Russian and Belarus border is already there.  The Ukranian to Russian border is too long to defend.  People along the border are both Russain and Ukrainian so NATO will be entering a cival war and it's hard 5 years to do so in the eastern Ukraine.  NATO stood by and watched the former Yugoslavia self distruct.  People who have never been in battle are pro war.  Logistics how is NATO going to land and supply it's troops the distances are massive.  You want to go up against the Russian army be my guest you can parachute in we need pathfinders trust me you email soldiers will crawl away.

Jamesukjames given your limited English language skills I'm assuming you're not a native speaker? Are you Ukrainian or Russian?

[DaveNY]

I would think that Europeans would understand that when Nord Stream 2 and South Stream will be complete in 2019 that they are "signing Ukraine's Death Warrant" by accepting gas without depending on Ukrainian transit
so I can only assume that this is tacit European approval of Russia reabsorbing Ukraine, since Ukraine is not at all vital to Europe's economic interests, but Russian gas is...

Russia has a unique window of opportunity for seizing Ukraine
a lot of upsides for doing this, and as long as Trump is commander in chief, very little down side

if the West gives Russia any trouble, or refuses to remove sanctions use Russian proxies in Syria to disrupt mideast oil and gas pipelines

this past September, was the largest military exercise in Russia's history, 300,000 men
this was the test run for the full invasion of Ukraine, + troops from other directions
goal is to take Odessa in 4 days

Most of Nord Stream 2 is being lead and funded in Europe by Germany. Nord Stream 2's parent company is lead by former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the current German chancellor Angela Merkel and her administration have seen to it that the pipeline will proceed with few obstacles.

Over the years I've worked with many German people in Europe and Moscow. Germans, IMO, tend to be practical people. Since Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO the German government will not attach much importance to its people or economy.

Even with the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia I doubt Russia can secure a land bridge between Russia and Odesa in 4 days. Using Crimea for a naval and air assault on Ukraine's southern coastline will certainly shorten the war but 4 days seems like an overly optimistic deadline to secure Odesa?

I agree ultimately that Russia wants control of Ukraine's southern coastline because that will give Russia a land bridge from Russia all the way to Romania, a EU member and NATO member. In addition, it will mean a land bridge to Moldova which will make transportation of Russian military hardware to Moldova that much easier.

Another advantage for Russia to seize control of Ukraine's southern coastline would be that Russia would then be able to claim ownership of the oil, gas and other minerals offshore.

[Trenchcoat]

straight outa Krim,

The closure of the Sea of Azov is going to have serious economic consequences for Ukraine, an estimated 2% slowdown in the GDP, most of it felt in the south east...

In 2018, the Mariupol and Berdyansk ports, the two most important on the Azov Sea, received approximately 5 million tons and 1.6 million tons of goods, respectively.

They are now effectively blocked by Russia, with Ukrainian vessels being barred from leaving and entering Azov Sea. Currently, 35 ships cannot get to their final destinations

A total of 18 vessels cannot enter the Azov Sea from the Black Sea to get the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and nine cannot exit the Azov Sea. Another eight ships remain moored in the ports. Only ships bound for Russian ports on the Sea of Azov are being allowed through the Kerch Strait by the Russians

Two large Mariupol-based firms owned by billionaire oligarch Rinat Akhmetov — Ilyich Iron and Steel Works of Mariupol and AzovStal — are particularly dependent on the port in Mariupol to ship their finished goods to consumers. And besides steel, the ports are also critical export conduits for other top Ukrainian industries: agriculture and coal.

 roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s steel exports (or approximately 5 percent of total exports), and 5 percent of its grain exports pass through the Azov ports.

With a full blockade, the (Azov) ports will lose up to $2 billion

without Azov Sea shipping, Ukraine would lose 2 percent of its gross domestic product.

aaaannnnnnnnnddd then next year Nord Stream 2 comes online and Ukraine will lose its gas transit fee to Europe which is 3% of its GDP, and Russia will demand a higher price from Ukraine, and maybe pay in advance, expect frequent gas disruptions throughout Ukraine in 2020 adding another 5% drop in GDP...

$1 = 50 UAH end of 2020
there will be much tougher currency controls in Ukraine
no real estate sales in dollars, etc., UAH only, etc

Add to all of that when the UK leaves the EU this March many Poles I believe will return to Poland. To some extent it has already started. This means that Poland will no longer need Ukrainian workers in Poland. This will decrease the good revenue many Ukrainian men were sending back to their families in Ukraine and of course many Ukrainian men may return to Ukraine. Assuming of course Ukraine still exists as a country and not just a region by that time.

I personally hope that Ukraine will continue to exist in at least some form as an independent country. It's really seems to be coming along with its own unique identity now.

[Boethius]

Jamesukjames given your limited English language skills I'm assuming you're not a native speaker? Are you Ukrainian or Russian?

His syntax is not Slavic.


This post was composed without the aid of google.

[krimster2]

this summer I photographed Iskander missiles in Simferopol heading to the railway station to be shipped up north towards Kerch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

when they are equipped with a thermobaric warhead it is the equivalent of several tons of TNT!
 it makes them the deadliest non nuclear missile in Russia’s inventory, these can now hit almost any point in southern Ukraine from Kerch

now with Ukrainian navy cut off from the sea of Azov, Ukrainian ground forces in southern Ukraine  are exposed to the sea either by direct attack or amphibious landing their tactical situation deteriorated immensely as a result of this "incident"

so now...
Russian aircraft and missiles attack from two directions
Russian ground forces attack from two directions
and naval bombardment followed by amphibious landing and ground assault in third direction

6 Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant Reactors secured by airborn assault in 30 minutes and shutdown

Ukraine defensive line collapses in 24 hours
Russian forces outside Odessa 24 hours later
meanwhile, Belbeck shock battalion paralyzes all Odessa communication and transportation

[Trenchcoat]

this summer I photographed Iskander missiles in Simferopol heading to the railway station to be shipped up north towards Kerch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

when they are equipped with a thermobaric warhead it is the equivalent of several tons of TNT!
 it makes them the deadliest non nuclear missile in Russia’s inventory, these can now hit almost any point in southern Ukraine from Kerch

now with Ukrainian navy cut off from the sea of Azov, Ukrainian ground forces in southern Ukraine  are exposed to the sea either by direct attack or amphibious landing their tactical situation deteriorated immensely as a result of this "incident"

so now...
Russian aircraft and missiles attack from two directions
Russian ground forces attack from two directions
and naval bombardment followed by amphibious landing and ground assault in third direction

6 Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant Reactors secured by airborn assault in 30 minutes and shutdown

Ukraine defensive line collapses in 24 hours
Russian forces outside Odessa 24 hours later
meanwhile, Belbeck shock battalion paralyzes all Odessa communication and transportation

Krim, when do you expect this all to happen?