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Author Topic: Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?  (Read 439171 times)

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Offline BillyB

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That is NOT how medicine works. IF any vaccin or medication will be released t will not be a matter of it might kill you or heal you.Remember that a success rate of 95% is equal to nothing. This means any medication or vaccin should at least reach a 99,5% succes rate to be acceptable. And to test that is not easy, which is why it takes time.In the mean time, snake oil sales men and woo supplers will have a field day as over 90% of people using their product recover.


People desperately want something, anything. Look how much talk is still on HCQ when our leaders have stopped talking about it. People were getting sick and overdosing on aspirin during the Spanish flu because they are looking for a cure without understanding the medicine.

Our leaders are going to have to deliver on a vaccine. Being rushed increases risk and decreases effectiveness. The virus that caused HIV has been around since the 80's and one virus our governments heavily invested lots of time and money into finding a vaccine with no success. Flu vaccines are easy to create but in their rush to create one for the latest mutation, they aren't always effective. A few years ago America had its deadliest flu season with 80,000 dying. They flu vaccine was only 17% effective. The year before the flu vaccine was only 34% effective.

http://www.statnews.com/2018/02/01/flu-vaccine-protection-h3n2/

In a matter of a couple months with massive action taken, COVID-19 already killed more than 90K Americans. We will embrace a vaccine even if it protect 17% of us and our government will promise to work on a better vaccine. Let's hope they have more success on SAR-COV-2 than they did on HIV.


HCQ should only be used at the early stages of infection.


Probably one reason early studies are showing doctors are killing more people than they are helping. A person's immunity system is the only thing that can beat the virus. Using HCQ early may suppress the immunity system to allow COVID-19 to win. When it is determined a person's immunity system is in overdrive and killing living tissue, it's also dangerous to give HCQ late in the game because it can further weaken the heart after COVID-19 has already done. But keep on peddling that snake oil. It was tried on SARS and failed. It is showing failure now. Trump moved on to remdesivir and so should you but lets quit celebrating HCQ like we won the World Series.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline Gator

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I am absolutely dumfounded how so many opportunities were and still are being missed in my country of birth.


Obama's prepared remarks yesterday must have given you an  exhilarating tingle. 

How many past US Presidents have criticized their successors?  Obama must be feeling the pressure of the world now learning of his administration's leaders clandestine efforts to investigate Trump as a candidate and to hogtie him as a President.   


When talking about opportunities missed in your country of birth,  why do you mention reopening guidelines in Italy?       

What you have in Italy is something we have been following in Florida for about two weeks.  This must not be your example of "missed opportunity.  Maybe you had something else in your mind that "There will be more problems in the US as by then Covid will likely be running riot." 

Offline GQBlues

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Probably one reason early studies are showing doctors are killing more people than they are helping. A person's immunity system is the only thing that can beat the virus. Using HCQ early may suppress the immunity system to allow COVID-19 to win. When it is determined a person's immunity system is in overdrive and killing living tissue, it's also dangerous to give HCQ late in the game because it can further weaken the heart after COVID-19 has already done. But keep on peddling that snake oil. It was tried on SARS and failed. It is showing failure now. Trump moved on to remdesivir and so should you but lets quit celebrating HCQ like we won the World Series.

There you go..once challenged, he moves to deflect and obfuscate.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline Confederate

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There you go..once challenged, he moves to deflect and obfuscate.

I suspect both Billy and Moby are on retainer with CNN!

For a guy professing to be a Trump supporter, Billy continues to take the Big Pharma/Globalist position, strange...(?)
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 03:04:20 PM by AnonMod »
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Offline BillyB

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Billy continues to take the Big Pharma/Globalist position, strange...(?)


You've noticed I've been pushing HCQ and other treatments and encouraging people to rush to get their vaccine when it comes out. You're a pretty smart guy.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline Shadow

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No shit!  So what were you talking in the following?

Why is it nothing? 

Yes, but take it to the next step.  Why is the infection rate about the same whether a person follows or disregards lockdown policies?
If medication makes no change in the survival rate, the medication has no effective value. If you o nothing a cold lasts 7 days. Take a pill an it only lasts a week.There for a medication against corona virus should increase the number of infected people that survive.

The infection rate oes not change with lockdown. Only the number of people that are infected. Reason is the amount of people meeting each other goes down, which effectively lowers the amount of people infected. However the infection rate of the virus might even go up in response.

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Online krimster2

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this is what Korea did, their leadership created a thing called a “plan”
they divided the country up into 3 different zones

Green zones require a minimum of one test per day for every 10,000 people and a five-person contact tracing team for every 100,000 people. (These are the levels currently maintained in South Korea, which has suppressed covid-19.) Two weeks ago, a modest 1,900 tests a day could have kept 19 million Americans safely in green zones. Today, there are no green zones in the United States.

Most Americans - about 298 million - live in yellow zones, where disease prevalence is between .002 percent and 1 percent. But even in yellow zones, the economy could safely reopen with aggressive testing and tracing, coupled with safety measures including mandatory masks. In South Korea, during the peak of its outbreak, it took 25 tests to detect one positive case, and the case fatality rate was 1 percent. Following this model, yellow zones would require 2,500 tests for every daily death. To contain spread, yellow zones also would ramp up contact tracing until a team is available for every new daily coronavirus case. After one tracer conducts an interview, the team would spend 12 hours identifying all those at risk. Speed matters, because the virus spreads quickly; three days is useless for tracing. (Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C., are all yellow zones.)

A disease prevalence greater than 1 percent defines red zones. Today, 30 million Americans live in such hot spots - which include Detroit, New Jersey, New Orleans and New York City. In addition to the yellow-zone interventions, these places require stay-at-home orders. But by strictly following guidelines for testing and tracing, red zones could turn yellow within four weeks, moving steadfastly from lockdown to liberty.

Getting to green nationwide is possible by the end of the summer, but it requires ramping up testing radically. The United States now administers more than 300,000 tests a day, but according to Korean guidelines, 5 million a day are needed (for two to three months). It's an achievable goal. Researchers estimate that the current system has a latent capacity to produce 2 million tests a day, and a surge in federal funding would spur companies to increase capacity. The key is to do it now, before manageable yellow zones deteriorate to economically ruinous red zones.

having a “plan” like Korea’s reduced their casualties by 99%
compared to calling it a hoax and doing nothing but continuous self-praise telethons

it’s a TOTALLY false choice to say that you prioritize the economy over lives
you CAN’T
because of this thing called “Reality”
because in reality the economy and the virus toll are linked in an inverse relationship
if the virus toll goes UP, then as a direct result the economy goes DOWN
remember, the collapse of the stock market happened BEFORE the shutdown
but in the absence of a plan
I expect a Trump rally with no masks in the next week or two
as our “official" death toll passes 100,000


Offline Gator

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If medication makes no change in the survival rate, the medication has no effective value. If you o nothing a cold lasts 7 days. Take a pill an it only lasts a week.There for a medication against corona virus should increase the number of infected people that survive.

I asked clarification about your statement that a "vaccine that has a clinical survival rate of 95% is equal to nothing."   And you give me simplistic examples of therapeutic medicine

To keep it simple:  A vaccine provides immunity from infection without inducing the disease.  A therapeutic medicine treats people who are already infected with the disease.

So why do you say a 95% effective vaccine is "equal to nothing?"



Quote
The infection rate oes not change with lockdown. Only the number of people that are infected. Reason is the amount of people meeting each other goes down, which effectively lowers the amount of people infected. However the infection rate of the virus might even go up in response.

R0 is dependent upon mitigation measures, e. g., the more social distancing the lower the R0.  The susceptibility of an exposed person does not change.  Susceptibility is not R0

The point I was trying to make is the data indicate no significant difference between staying at home vs. going to work.  There are many other factors to consider such as practices at the workplace and people now know what not to do. 
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 10:54:36 AM by Gator »

Offline Gator

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this is what Korea did, their leadership created a thing called a “plan”

Aren't we gearing up to do the same in the US? 

We got ahead of the 8-ball when banning China travelers but quickly got behind the 8-ball  in some locales because our testing was so limited in the beginning.

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  Getting to green nationwide is possible by the end of the summer
 

But maybe not for some of those red hot locales.  And some complacent yellow areas could fail too.   The virus will not go away until we have an effective vaccine. 


 
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having a “plan” like Korea’s reduced their casualties by 99%
compared to calling it a hoax and doing nothing but continuous self-praise telethons

I missed the periods when we did nothing.  Please name a period when our health departments and our federal and state governments were not doing anything?




Offline BC

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Obama's prepared remarks yesterday must have given you an  exhilarating tingle. 

Other than a headline flash, did not see, hear or read his comments.

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How many past US Presidents have criticized their successors?  Obama must be feeling the pressure of the world now learning of his administration's leaders clandestine efforts to investigate Trump as a candidate and to hogtie him as a President.   

Irrelevant, tangental and obfuscated attempt to respond to my post.

Quote
When talking about opportunities missed in your country of birth,  why do you mention reopening guidelines in Italy? 


Because Italy, despite a terrible start has done much more than we in the US to beat the bug at its game instead of being 'owned' by it. 90 days Gator, remember this number. We simply did not have the gumption to get it done right. 

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What you have in Italy is something we have been following in Florida for about two weeks.  This must not be your example of "missed opportunity.  Maybe you had something else in your mind that "There will be more problems in the US as by then Covid will likely be running riot."

Trying to open up the economy when you haven't yet beaten down the virus to a manageable level is vastly different than what has been done here. Numbers in FL are not going down as they are doing here.

Look at NY, they are still fighting with success, largely holding back reopening until the numbers are down. Then look at your state and others that have 'opened back up' prematurely.  New infections are not going down.  In fact, if NY numbers were taken out the number of new infections in the US would be rising instead of being flat at 25k per day momentarily.  In the overall scheme of things, the US has deemed 25k new cases per day and 1500 deaths per day is quite ok.  Chances are, these numbers will now rise.

Had the US taken the same measures as Italy, there would not be 80,000 dead today.  It would be less than half that number with new infections getting close to a manageable level in the next week or so.  Instead, there will be at least 160k dead that may well go considerably higher and far longer.  That is 120k needless deaths.

We in the US gave up fighting long ago, instead, following the horse-drawn cart selling magic elixir and ointments.

Offline Shadow

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I asked clarification about your statement that a "vaccine that has a clinical survival rate of 95% is equal to nothing."   And you give me simplistic examples of therapeutic medicine

To keep it simple:  A vaccine provides immunity from infection without inducing the disease.  A therapeutic medicine treats people who are already infected with the disease.

So why do you say a 95% effective vaccine is "equal to nothing?"
You are correct, I am mixing the terms here. I will keep that in mind.

R0 is dependent upon mitigation measures, e. g., the more social distancing the lower the R0.  The susceptibility of an exposed person does not change.  Susceptibility is not R0

The point I was trying to make is the data indicate no significant difference between staying at home vs. going to work.  There are many other factors to consider such as practices at the workplace and people now know what not to do.
When comparing the statistics of Sweden and Denmark it seems to show that a (partial) lockdown does work. Where Denmark (doing an early lockdown) shows the number of cases going down after some time, Sweden (no lockdown) stays level on the number of new cases. Initially the development was alike, but after a month the difference starts showing.People expect an immediate effect of a lockdown, and that is not the case. First of all there is the incubation period of two weeks that needs to be taken in to account, then the fact that a lockdown causes initial extra shopping and contact in order to be able to have it. This means that the first month will not show a difference, but after that the effect will be seen, as long as people o not get impatient.

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Offline GQBlues

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Had the US taken the same measures as Italy, there would not be 80,000 dead today.  It would be less than half that number with new infections getting close to a manageable level in the next week or so.

What are you talking about?

Italy didn't take any measure to avoid death, you simple ran out of old people to kill. Didn't Italy just carted them off a room and closed the door?

It is well know the world over.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline msmob

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What are you talking about?

Italy didn't take any measure to avoid death, you simple ran out of old people to kill. Didn't Italy just carted them off a room and closed the door?

It is well know the world over.

It is well known... by who?  YOU ?

Italy had an epicentre..a hotspot   .. IF you had a clue, you'd realise that it's been stamp on and the embers on glowing ..... meanwhile in the US, the fires are a burning bright all over the country ...

The UK and the US REALLY screwed up, despite lots of clues ...

Offline Shadow

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The UK and the US REALLY screwed up, despite lots of clues ...
Boris Johnson survived... althoough some might consider that part of the screwup.
No it is not a dog. Its really how I look.  ;)

Offline GQBlues

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u
It is well known... by who?  YOU

You are the definition of obtuse. From your own media even ...

http://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200428-coronavirus-how-doctors-choose-who-lives-and-dies
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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Trump launches "Operation Warp Speed" obviously stolen from Star Trek. It's about vaccines and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar says we had 100 of possible candidates and we are down to 14 now. Eventually we'll get down to 4 or 5 and governments will invest heavily in them. The goal is to have 300 million vaccines ready by January. He also said we'll manufacture vaccines before the studies are finish and may have to discard hundreds of millions of vaccines if determined the studies conclude they are not safe and effective. Video of the interview below.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/health-secretary-aiming-for-300-million-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-by-2021/ar-BB14ddWh?ocid=spartanntp
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline msmob

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Boris Johnson survived... althoough some might consider that part of the screwup.

Some might consider, you are just online for 'sport', tonight, John ...   Actually, I think his becoming ill has woken him up, slightly .... He was saved by a Portuguese nurse ( amongst others ) who wouldn't be here under his new immigration rules AND she'll be asked to pay over £600 to use the very service she works for and pay  'social insurance' [ National Insurance in UK ]

Boris, had better wake up, soon.. he's losing his grip and his ministers are headless chickens setting standards / targets they have to lie about to 'hit'...
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 03:13:55 PM by msmob »

Offline BC

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What are you talking about?

Italy didn't take any measure to avoid death, you simple ran out of old people to kill. Didn't Italy just carted them off a room and closed the door?

It is well know the world over.

No, they did what was humanly possible with what was available, and are still doing so.  We in the US OTOH are not, instead opting to let folks die in trade for chasing an economic mirage.

There are millions of elderly folks left in Italy, and everyone is sacrificing to keep it that way.

Today there are 762 Italians in intensive care. At the peak, there were around 4000. Today over 16,000 Americans are in intensive care.



Graphs are shifted compensating for the two weeks the US is behind Italy.

Every death above the red line in the US was preventable.  Sure, doctors here had to make some very tough choices.  In the US our leader is making that choice with doctors relegated to stuffing body bags.  In the US many more will die needlessly for reasons not even related to medical care, with many more to follow, far longer than in Italy.

Our inept leader is making those life and death decisions, not doctors.  This is well known the world over.

Go to funerals and start shaking hands of mourning mothers, fathers, sons and daughters.  Thank them heartily, for their sacrifice so you can enjoy your new car, house, pool or investments.  You owe it to them. Show 'em how much you really care.



Offline Gator

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Irrelevant, tangental and obfuscated attempt to respond to my post.

I admit to assuming your sentiments as expressed in the past.  I also admit to being miffed that Obama would at this critical time choose to criticize the administration specifically about the pandemic.  This nation needs to be working together, not only to defeat the virus but to restore the economy. 
 

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  Because Italy, despite a terrible start has done much more than we in the US to beat the bug at its game instead of being 'owned' by it.

I compare Florida's  22 million population vs. Italy's 60 million. The numbers are comparable if Florida data are multiplied by 3x.    As with Italy, Florida too has a hot spot, Miami multi-county region accounting for about 50% of the cases.  And Florida as Italy has an older population (damn retirees like me). 

The curves of infection differ remarkably.  Instead of a steep, well defined peak as in Italy, Florida experienced a more gradual increase with a flatter peak enduring for a longer time.   

I do see Italy has lowered its infection rate dramatically from a peak of about 6,000 cases/day in late March to 900 cases/day in mid-May.  That is very commendable and reflects your stringent mitigation policies.   

Our peak new case rate was about 1200/day which was seen multiple times over 6 weeks but the mean over that period was about 800/day.   That later dropped to 600/day.  We have been reopening for about two weeks and rates have remained steady so far at the same rate of about 600/day.  Maybe that is because Florida never completely closed (restaurants and similar closed but many activities including some churches remained open with precautions). 

Based on population, today's rate is about twice that of Italy's.   Hospitalizations are averaging about 150/day, but only 84 today with just 9 deaths (partial data?). 

I don't see where you can say that Italy is a "win" and the US is a "loss."   Deaths have totaled 31,763 in Italy and  1,973 in Florida.  Clearly Italy suffered the most with prorated 5x more deaths than Florida.   Will Florida suffer longer, which I assume is your point?   

We will see, and it is too early to predict magnitudes.     


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90 days Gator, remember this number. We simply did not have the gumption to get it done right. 

Italy still have more time to go before it hits 90 days.  If 90 days mean you have eliminated the disease as claimed in Australia,  Italy is the winner and your economic recovery over the next couple of years should reflect it. 

Quote
Trying to open up the economy when you haven't yet beaten down the virus to a manageable level is vastly different than what has been done here. Numbers in FL are not going down as they are doing here.

True, but the goal in Florida is not to eliminate the disease but to reopen and not exceed the capacity of the healthcare system. BTW, we are performing about 15,000 tests per week.  How many tests is Italy performing?  We still have staff shortages for contact tracing, especially in Miami-Dade. 


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Had the US taken the same measures as Italy, there would not be 80,000 dead today.  It would be less than half that number with new infections getting close to a manageable level in the next week or so.  Instead, there will be at least 160k dead that may well go considerably higher and far longer.  That is 120k needless deaths.


You are guessing, but maybe that is more reliable than math modeling of this pandemic, given the experience so far.   :(   

Quote
We in the US gave up fighting long ago, instead, following the horse-drawn cart selling magic elixir and ointments.

Regarding your first part,  the US is fighting by each individual taking precautions as we go back to work. The second part confirms my assumption about your sentiments as I wrote in the beginning.  ;D

Online krimster2

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"This nation needs to be working together, not only to defeat the virus but to restore the economy. "

oh that Obama!
ALWAYS attacking and belittling his opponents
must be a Kenyan thing
good you called him on it
ummm hmmmm


"Aren't we gearing up to do the same in the US? "

Korea geared up in two weeks, where are we? trying to decide if leeches or clorox works best for a Corona treatment
Texas is "opening up" now, probably a coincidence that today we had our highest number of deaths and infections
there are NO contact tracers in Texas
because here in Texas no one thinks the virus is a real threat
so no social distancing is needed
this winter the death toll will be horrible here in Texas when all these people currently dismissing the threat start getting infected in the next exponential phase
the second exponential curve will be staggering in size compared to the first
then Mexico will probably invade and take Texas back,
good thing we have a wall to keep their Army out, right?

« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 03:42:19 PM by krimster2 »

Offline Gator

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"This nation needs to be working together, not only to defeat the virus but to restore the economy. "

oh that Obama!
ALWAYS attacking and belittling his opponents
must be a Kenyan thing
good you called him on it
ummm hmmmm

He was smooth.  So much to never be seen belittling people,  other than factory workers from industrial towns, especially those who cling to their religion or gun philosophy.   Meanwhile others were doing his work.     

I don't recall any past President criticizing his successor in public. Why?  Is this about the campaign?  Or is this to distract from walls coming down that have hidden what those in his administration have done?     We will learn more. 


Offline Trenchcoat

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Some might consider, you are just online for 'sport', tonight, John ...   Actually, I think his becoming ill has woken him up, slightly .... He was saved by a Portuguese nurse ( amongst others ) who wouldn't be here under his new immigration rules AND she'll be asked to pay over £600 to use the very service she works for and pay  'social insurance' [ National Insurance in UK ]

Boris, had better wake up, soon.. he's losing his grip and his ministers are headless chickens setting standards / targets they have to lie about to 'hit'...

She just happened to be the nurse in attendance, any other nurse would do the same thing. They are of course going to give Boris special treatment that no other non-minister of Parliament, i.e member of the general public will receive. It was a common courteousy that Boris thank the nurse assigned to care for him closely. It just so happened that she was Portuguese but it should have no bearing on policy at large.
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

Offline Trenchcoat

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Well virus deaths in the UK are down to around 170 or so today. So things seem to be heading in the right direction hear and a lot better than a couple of weeks or so ago. Still a way to go though and I don't think life will start getting anywhere near to what it was till about July. By that time more stuff should be feasible, the virus infections should be under control and more permanent worked out ways of working that make sense should be coming through. Some I think are already but there is still more work to be done on that I think. The rest of May and June will likely be more waiting for the infection & death rate to fall and on getting more people back to work and business moving again.

Ukraine is putting forth low infection & death rates due to early lockdown measures, Georgia too. I think the main problem for both these countries will be the hit their economies take and possible social unrest that may follow. An early lockdown means that the economy will be out just as long as in the west, possibly more so .

Myself I am itching to get back out there and dating women. In some respects it has given me time I needed to work on my house but there is of course no guarantee if the dating scene will return this year. I'm still hoping that July, August, etc may be possible to get flights out there and date women. I'm not sure a mandatory keep two meters apart sounds appealing though, lol.
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

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This nation needs to be working together, not only to defeat the virus but to restore the economy.

Instead, we decided to live with the virus instead of defeating it.  Obama has nothing to do with that.
 

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I compare Florida's  22 million population vs. Italy's 60 million. The numbers are comparable if Florida data are multiplied by 3x.    As with Italy, Florida too has a hot spot, Miami multi-county region accounting for about 50% of the cases.  And Florida as Italy has an older population (damn retirees like me).


Yes pretty similar, divide by 3. Italy is still 'older' by a few years (longevity).  Obviously longevity will drop a bit for a couple years.

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The curves of infection differ remarkably.  Instead of a steep, well defined peak as in Italy, Florida experienced a more gradual increase with a flatter peak enduring for a longer time. 
 

Lapses in testing early on could well account for the softer lead-up. More worrisome is the flat peak that continues on and on, possibly rising due to restarting prematurely.

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I do see Italy has lowered its infection rate dramatically from a peak of about 6,000 cases/day in late March to 900 cases/day in mid-May.  That is very commendable and reflects your stringent mitigation policies.


Indeed, measures were and still are stringent, but totally based on data and 'following the plan'. 

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Our peak new case rate was about 1200/day which was seen multiple times over 6 weeks but the mean over that period was about 800/day.   That later dropped to 600/day.  We have been reopening for about two weeks and rates have remained steady so far at the same rate of about 600/day.  Maybe that is because Florida never completely closed (restaurants and similar closed but many activities including some churches remained open with precautions). 

Only time will tell.  The effects of what we do today will be apparent in two weeks.

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Based on population, today's rate is about twice that of Italy's.   Hospitalizations are averaging about 150/day, but only 84 today with just 9 deaths (partial data?). 

Likely partial.  I wish worldometer had a date select instead of just 'Yesterday'.


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I don't see where you can say that Italy is a "win" and the US is a "loss."   Deaths have totaled 31,763 in Italy and  1,973 in Florida.  Clearly Italy suffered the most with prorated 5x more deaths than Florida.   Will Florida suffer longer, which I assume is your point?

Yes.  We're also two weeks ahead of you, approximately.  We'll know more down the road, but suspect lack of testing also contributed to underreporting covid related deaths, more so in the US than Italy.
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We will see, and it is too early to predict magnitudes. 
   

Yes, agree.

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Italy still have more time to go before it hits 90 days.  If 90 days mean you have eliminated the disease as claimed in Australia,  Italy is the winner and your economic recovery over the next couple of years should reflect it.


National lockdown started 10 March IIRC so another 20 days to go. I hope the downward trend continues,  Testing continues full force with around 20% of tests performed daily are actually retesting of folks that were infected to give them the 'all clear' then they are dropped from the infected charts and shown as recovered.  They wait for the retest here and are not using some time factor to determine 'recovered' status.

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True, but the goal in Florida is not to eliminate the disease but to reopen and not exceed the capacity of the healthcare system. BTW, we are performing about 15,000 tests per week.  How many tests is Italy performing?  We still have staff shortages for contact tracing, especially in Miami-Dade. 

35-40 thousand per day, not counting retesting.

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You are guessing, but maybe that is more reliable than math modeling of this pandemic, given the experience so far.   :(   

I'm usually fairly good at interpreting data and business workflow processes/analysis.  Good enough that it pays the bills ;)

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Regarding your first part,  the US is fighting by each individual taking precautions as we go back to work. The second part confirms my assumption about your sentiments as I wrote in the beginning.  ;D

However, the first part requires commitment from all, sea to shining sea. I don't see that happening.  As to the second, the cart analogy refers to the loss of data-driven decision making, but do admit to being guilty of a misdemeanour for the manner in which it was phrased.

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Well virus deaths in the UK are down to around 170 or so today. So things seem to be heading in the right direction hear and a lot better than a couple of weeks or so ago.

Body counters need rest also. It'll pop back up when they go back to work.


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Myself I am itching to get back out there and dating women. In some respects it has given me time I needed to work on my house but there is of course no guarantee if the dating scene will return this year. I'm still hoping that July, August, etc may be possible to get flights out there and date women. I'm not sure a mandatory keep two meters apart sounds appealing though, lol.

Virus or not, you don't even try to get dates.  That's why you itch. Some say one can go blind as well.  Hire-a-bonk is not really dating.

 

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