Ukraine-The Future

[JayH]

As the article notes Ukraine's economy is moving despite Russia's war in the east.
Some positive aspects are reflected in the numbers .


Fitch forecasts Ukrainian economy growth

Fitch's growth forecast for Ukraine predicts acceleration to 2.5% in 2017 and 3% in 2018, from a projected 1.1% in 2016. While investment has supported growth in 2016, it is likely to remain low relative to 'B'-rated peers, highlighting the importance of improving the business environment. Privatisation has yet to gain momentum. The unresolved conflict in eastern Ukraine will continue to weigh on growth performance and expectations.

The banking sector has stabilised, but is weak with low capitalisation levels and non-performing loans of over 50%, and poses a risk to economic stability and constrains economic recovery. Banks continue to improve capitalisation levels after an asset quality review in 2015. State-owned banks may see additional government injections, albeit at a lower level than in previous years.

http://uatoday.tv/business/fitch-upgrades-ukraine-to-b-outlook-stable-804564.html

[JayH]

Another interesting story showing a path to the future -- and most importantly doing great work right now.


We Are Building the New Ukraine, Three Years after Euromaidan

The need for reconciliation between eastern and western Ukraine is often emphasized in Ukrainian and international media, and has been the subject of dozens of roundtables in the past couple of years. Though originally from western Ukraine, I have lived and worked in the east for nearly two years, and I have come to realize that the approach and terminology currently in vogue are wrong.
We have not fought with each other; therefore, we do not need to reconcile. The real problem is that we have never actually spoken and do not really know each other. Most of the communication between the two sides has been conducted through oligarch-owned media and rumors based on stereotypes. In fact, what we need is communication, not reconciliation. As prominent historian and co-founder of the Nestor Group Yaroslav Hrytsak has put it, “If there is no communication, there can be no nation.”



http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/keep-your-eye-on-the-activists-not-kyiv

[JayH]

Posting this here --and not on the numerous other threads the current  anti-Ukrainian troll  has repeatedly mentioned this issue. Needless to say -he/it is wrong again  as a positive result has been achieved on this issue.

EU accelerates visa-free travel rights for Ukrainians

The EU is to grant visa-free travel rights to Ukraine in a signal of support for a war-torn country

http://www.ft.com/content/ec3ffa46-acdf-11e6-ba7d-76378e4fef24

[Anotherkiwi]

Posting this here --and not on the numerous other threads the current  anti-Ukrainian troll  has repeatedly mentioned this issue. Needless to say -he/it is wrong again  as a positive result has been achieved on this issue.

EU accelerates visa-free travel rights for Ukrainians

The EU is to grant visa-free travel rights to Ukraine in a signal of support for a war-torn country

http://www.ft.com/content/ec3ffa46-acdf-11e6-ba7d-76378e4fef24

Jay, that comes up as a paid link only, even using the Kyiv Post link.  The free version is with https at the start.

[JayH]

Saakashvili supporters rally for early elections


Saakashvili resigned as governor of Odesa Oblast on Nov. 7, accusing President Petro Poroshenko of blocking his efforts to reduce corruption in the region’s law enforcement bodies, civil service and customs – a claim denied by the president’s representatives. Saakashvili later announced plans to launch a political party in an effort to come to power and replace Ukraine’s political establishment.

“There are so many of us here in this place where citizens took power into their own hands three years ago,” said Denys Brodsky, a former reformist head of the National Civil Service Agency and moderator of the rally. “Right here the nation woke up… Your presence here proves that the Maidan’s cause has not been accomplished. Time is up – the last winter of this parliament is at hand.”

Saakashvili also alluded to Vyacheslav Chornovil, a leader of Ukraine’s 1990s independence movement with whom he had been acquainted, since the rally was held in front of a monument to him.

“We are launching a movement that will change the course of our country’s history,” Saakashvili said. “The oligarchic parliament does not reflect the people’s will, contradicts Ukraine’s national interests and threatens the future of our children.”

He called for changing the electoral law to make it easier for non-oligarchic parties to get into parliament, replacing the discredited Central Election Commission, abolishing parliamentary immunity from prosecution and holding snap parliamentary elections.

“(Those in power) know that a wave is rising that will wipe them from the face of the earth and will release the nation from their tentacles,” Saakashvili said.

He also argued that the fate of both Ukraine and Europe depended on whether the nation got rid of its corrupt elite and carried out reforms.

“Not only Ukraine’s independence is at stake but the freedom of the whole of Europe,” Saakashvili said. “Today Ukraine is an outpost of the free world.

The platform of Saakashvili’s movement, as announced by him, includes “uncompromising reforms, zero tolerance for corruption, a total purge of state institutions, jailing thieves in government, freeing the people and businesses from the regulatory burden, a steep cut in taxes and simplifying tax collection.” Other aspects include “fundamental judicial reform, radical liberalization of the old oligarchic economy, the reform of education, healthcare, and social policy and introducing law and order – at a lightning speed, uncompromisingly and – if necessary – very severely,” he said.
http://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/saakashvili-supporters-rally-support-early-elections.html

[JayH]

Saakashvili argued that changes of government in Ukraine had been meaningless formalities, with the same kleptocratic political class staying in power since 1991 and bleeding the nation dry.

“If you look at what Ukraine’s political class is all about, in every elections we are electing people, and things don’t change and get worse, and the new ones are the same as the old ones,” he said. “The secret is that every new (government) for the last 25 years has been the old one.”

He suggested ousting the corrupt elite and bringing a younger, idealistic and patriotic generation to power.

Saakashvili also proposed halving Ukraine’s bureaucracy, radical economic deregulation and privatization.





A major aspect of Saakashvili’s program is “zero tolerance for corruption.” He argued that electronic asset declarations for Ukrainian officials, which were launched on Oct. 30, had exposed their amazingly corrupt lifestyle.
Even the 2013-2014 EuroMaidan Revolution, which overthrew ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, failed to oust Ukraine’s kleptocratic elite, Saakashvili said.

“After the second Maidan people took power away from Yanukovych,” he said. “They looked around and saw all the same faces, maybe more civilized ones (than under Yanukovych). They gave power to them – and the experiment didn’t work.”

Thanks to its corrupt establishment, Ukraine has turned from a country with a similar gross domestic product to Poland in 1991 into a much poorer and less advanced country now, Saakashvili said. Ukraine ranked 113th in the world and second poorest in Europe after Moldova in terms of GDP per capita in 2015, while Poland was 44th, according to the International Monetary Fund.



http://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/saakashvili-new-leaders-ukraine-can-european-power.html

[Bounder]

"Thanks to its corrupt establishment, Ukraine has turned from a country with a similar gross domestic product to Poland in 1991 into a much poorer and less advanced country now"

I am assuming Ukraine will never take responsibility for it's own failings and it will always blame someone else.  The future of Ukraine and Ukrainian-sympathizers is to blame others for their past and never move forward.

[Boethius]

I am assuming Ukraine will never take responsibility for it's own failings and it will always blame someone else. 

You are beginning your assumption with a false premise.  What do you think Ukrainians were protesting at Euromaidan?  Do you think they were willing to die there for someone else?  If you read Ukrainian newspapers, you would know that Ukrainians do blame their government for much of what has occurred. 

Please explain to us all how Ukrainians don't take responsibility for the problems in their country.

[Gator]

I am assuming Ukraine will never take responsibility for it's own failings and it will always blame someone else.  The future of Ukraine and Ukrainian-sympathizers is to blame others for their past and never move forward.

Russia is even more  guilty than Ukraine in blaming others.  Russian propaganda feeds the Russian people the false narrative that the Russian economy suffers from American aggression instead of stating the real reasons:    1)  Russia's unlawful seizure of Crimea prompted sanctions against Russia, 2.) Russian policy continued a volatile, commodity-based economy instead of promoting investments in diversified and value-added industries, 3) wealth is concentrated in a few Oligarchs rather than in the middle class, 4) the trickle-down economy has little trickle from the Oligarchs,  5) Putin overspends on military,  6)  Russian governs more as a dictatorship than a democracy, etc. 

[jone]

Ukraine yesterday issued a prohibition for travel to Jean-Marie Le Pen from France.  Ms. Le Pen indicated that the Russian annexation of Crimea was legal because the citizens voted for it in a referendum vote.

I picked up the story from Reuters but was unable to cite it because it came from a Twitter feed. 

Le Pen is an outspoken advocate of far right positions.  With this statement it is pretty apparent that she is attempting to curry favor with the Kremlin.

[Boethius]

le Front national has been funded by Russia for years.  It received 9.4 million euros from ERB, a Moscow based bank, in 2014, and is seeking 12 million in loans from Russian banks for the 2017 election.


Moscow has been accused of funding many of the EU's right wing parties, but there is no proof of that, other than the loan to le Front national. 

[Boethius]

An article on Russia's clandestine ties to the EU's far right parties -


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/12103602/America-to-investigate-Russian-meddling-in-EU.html

[Anotherkiwi]

Ukraine yesterday issued a prohibition for travel to Jean-Marie Le Pen from France.  Ms. Le Pen indicated that the Russian annexation of Crimea was legal because the citizens voted for it in a referendum vote.

I picked up the story from Reuters but was unable to cite it because it came from a Twitter feed. 

Le Pen is an outspoken advocate of far right positions.  With this statement it is pretty apparent that she is attempting to curry favor with the Kremlin.

You're confused, jone.     Jean-Marie Le Pen is MALE, not female.  It is his daughter Marine who is the subject of the protest from the Ukrainian security service.
 
http://europe.newsweek.com/ukraine-marine-le-pen-ban-travel-crimea-russia-annexation-538340?rm=eu

[jone]

You're confused, jone.     Jean-Marie Le Pen is MALE, not female.  It is his daughter Marine who is the subject of the protest from the Ukrainian security service.
 
http://europe.newsweek.com/ukraine-marine-le-pen-ban-travel-crimea-russia-annexation-538340?rm=eu

My bad.  You're right.

[LiveFromUkraine]

You're confused, jone.     Jean-Marie Le Pen is MALE, not female.  It is his daughter Marine who is the subject of the protest from the Ukrainian security service.
 
http://europe.newsweek.com/ukraine-marine-le-pen-ban-travel-crimea-russia-annexation-538340?rm=eu

How dare you jump to conclusions!  You don't know what gender Jean-Marie identifies with.  He could identify as a woman or a cucumber.   

[msmob]

How dare you jump to conclusions!  You don't know what gender Jean-Marie identifies with.  He could identify as a woman or a cucumber.   

As J-M has been pushing up the daisies since Jan '11 - I doubt he will be 'identifying' with anybody - other than - perhaps - given his racist tendencies - his maker .....

[ML]

He says trying to reintegrate Crimea and Donbas into Ukraine would instantly bankrupt the country.

Article is here, but can't read it without subscription.
http://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukrainian-politics-expert-says-country-must-let-go-crimea-donbas.html

But I presume his thoughts are pretty much the same as are posted on his blog here.
http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/ukraines-united-future-depends-leaving-donbas-its-divided-past

My spouse has said pretty much the same thing for the past couple of years.  She doesn't want to associate with those in Crimea and Donbas who have done so much to harm Ukraine and it's people.

[Boethius]

I don't disagree with him on letting the regions go.   However, the war is good cover for politicians to not carry out reforms. 

Yesterday, the better half was laughing about yet another Rada member who is under investigation.  He said she was a leading Euromaidan activist, who, once elected, seized the Hotel Lebed.  He said she's under investigation because "now someone else wants to steal it".  He's always been fairly jaded about Ukrainian politicians, mostly because he says "I saw them up close, and my survival depended on knowing how they think."  He has noted increased hostilities occur in the disputed regions when the EU demands changes, or there have been protests against corruption, or laws on corruption are introduced.

The point of the above is that Ukraine's problems won't disappear overnight.  Corruption is too entrenched. 

[LiveFromUkraine]

Bo, what is your take on the Anti Corruption Bureau?


I was reading an article last month talking about them and the Prosecutors Office getting into a confrontation in Kiev.  The article made it sound like the Anti Corruption Bureau was doing it's job and the Prosecutor's Office wanted more control over the bureau.

[krimster2]

Corruption 101 (Test on Thursday)

In December 2016, Ukraine nationalized Ihor Kolomoyskyi’s Privat Bank at a cost of about $5.5 billion, to “Preserve Stability” (Hide Insolvency) after he stole billions of $$$ of deposits.  To put the $5.5 billion rescue program in perspective, the whole foreign exchange reserves of Ukraine stands at around $16 billion.

 The nationalization of "Privat-Bank" was expected after the "CyberBerkut" hackers exposed Poroshenko/Biden talks on the conditions for further IMF loans. Once it became clear that the nationalization of Kolomoisky’s bank would be one of IMF’s requirements, the future was obvious. The US government and the IMF had closely monitored the situation with "Privat-Bank" for a while now.

Why did the IMF believe that this was necessary? Because Kolomoisky was using "Privat-Bank" to constantly siphon money from the Ukrainian budget. The method was simple and elegant: By giving high interest rates on deposits, "Privat" became the #1 bank in terms of money deposited by the Ukrainian population.

Privat opened those accounts, even if it meant operating at a loss - because this enabled Kolomoisky to pressure the government, threatening the collapse of the banking system if the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) does not bail out Privat [time after time]. He used essentially the same kind of financial blackmail back in the days of Yanukovych, too. So, under both governments, NBU was repeatedly forced to print additional money and give it to Kolomoisky (and this after he stole customer deposits in the first place)!

As you may recall, the first collapse of the UAH/dollar exchange rate happened when Kolomoisky received his first “refinancing” (bailout!) after Maidan. And note that he received this additional money using his assets in Crimea as collateral, even though it was already obvious that these assets would be nationalized by the Russian government. Kolomoyski then used the billions of Hryvna that he received from the NBU to purchase huge amounts of dollars and euros, which in turn collapsed the UAH exchange rate.  Gee, I also wonder if he shorted UAH with leveraged call/put options in the forex market as well, since he know what was going to happen?  Kinda makes George Soros look like a little kid in comparison!

As Kolomoisky kept on “milking” the National Bank on a regular basis, the IMF grew tired of sending money to the NBU, knowing that it would be used to line Kolomoisky’s pockets instead of serving its purpose. Interestingly enough, if you analyze the capital of Ukrainian oligarchs, the balance between assets and liabilities of Kolomoisky looks radically different from the other oligarchs. ALL Ukrainian oligarchs are bankrupt - they all have much more liabilities (i.e. debts) than assets. Oligarchs are essentially owned by commercial banks, mainly foreign. Why were they forced to support the Maidan? Because they were all deeply in debt to foreign banks. But Kolomoisky’s situation is different –all his debts are owned by the Ukrainian population.

“Forbes” often publishes rankings of the oligarchs. When they write that the fortune of one or the other billionaire is X number of $billions, this is the cost of entities which he/she owns. But no one reveals the amount of loans that they have. Because if they did reveal this amount, it would turn out that they were all bankrupt!

However, Kolomoisky did not resist the nationalization of "Privat-Bank" too strongly. Why? Because the possession of "Privat" is no longer a priority for him. Of course, he would like to continue using it as means of siphoning off money from the government, but government does not want to continue giving money. And the bank itself has no money left in it. So there is no point for Kolomoisky to fight hard over a bankrupt bank. On the contrary, this presents a good opportunity to pass off Privat, and all its debts, to the government.

In the meantime, Kolomoisky will be doing everything he can to look like the victim in this situation. He will be the one shouting "Stop the thief!" the loudest, whilst pointing at the Kiev government.  Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko doesn’t seem to want to prosecute Kolomoisky  In fact, just one day after PrivatBank was nationalized, his losses were compensated for by an amendment to the tax code!

[JayH]

I don't disagree with him on letting the regions go. 
 

I am totally against conceding any territory to Russia. Those promoting compromise are doing the Kremlin's work.The proliferation of stories,trolls posts etc has been at this for some time.The only purpose I can see it to soften opposition by suggesting compromise has wide support.

There is no doubt Ukrainians are  tired of the war-- but even higher priority is to see some improvements in their lives. Very hard to illustrate with rising costs biting hard.Even harder to preach patience.

Russia's strategy of disruption and costing Ukraine as much as possible to maintain it's sovereignty can only work for so long.Russia itself is paying a fearful price for it's actions. Realistically--only  a soft approach to Russia by Trump can save Putin and Russia. If Trump  ( that was IF IF IF etc) follows the advice he is given he can put himself in a win & win situation with Russia. Increasing the pressure on Putin and Russia can see the US dictate the future directions.

On 29 December, one of Ukraine’s most influential figures, Viktor Pinchuk, declared that pre-emptive and ‘painful’ compromises would be needed to forestall a US-Russian bargain ‘over the heads of more than 40 million Ukrainians’. The path of compromise is hardly new for Pinchuk, son-in-law of Ukraine’s second president, Leonid Kuchma, a prominent philanthropist and one of the richest people in Ukraine, with long-standing business ties to Russia. Unlike some other prominent figures, it is rare to find Pinchuk accused of being a front man for Russia’s interests. Nevertheless, he has been a consistent proponent of a conciliatory course: a policy hospitable towards the West, respectful of Russian red lines and critical of those who believe that Ukraine must choose between one side and the other.

Pre-emptive compromise would imperil #Ukraine


But despite Pinchuk’s laudable goals – preserving ‘Ukraine’s right to choose its own way, safeguard its territorial integrity and build a successful country’ – his solutions effectively abandon them. They call for ‘temporarily’ renouncing the goal of EU membership, pursuing ‘for now’ an ‘alternative security arrangement’ to NATO and perhaps most controversially, holding local elections in occupied areas before ‘conditions for fair elections exist’. Such compromises are the stuff of the ‘grand bargain’ that ‘realists’ usually talk about. But even in Donald Trump’s world of deal-making, few would consign Ukraine to Russia’s embrace without qualifications and safeguards, however illusory these might be. Pinchuk’s ‘realists’ are not real characters but rhetorical foils that appear designed to give credence to his proposals.
http://www.eureporter.co/frontpage/2017/01/11/pre-emptive-compromise-would-imperil-ukraine/

[Darth_Budda]

The only way Kiev will get Donbass back is if the people of Eastern Ukraine can find the power to battle the oligarchs and fascists...

I see another revolution coming for Ukraine...

[BillyB]

I am totally against conceding any territory to Russia. Those promoting compromise are doing the Kremlin's work.The proliferation of stories,trolls posts etc has been at this for some time.The only purpose I can see it to soften opposition by suggesting compromise has wide support.

Some people just don't want to fight. A guy holds a gun to you which puts you at a disadvantage. He asks for your wallet. If you give it to him, are you compromising and doing his work? Many people and nations see Russia being powerful and not worth confronting. Currently there is a nation that does have the ability to confront Russia with bigger guns.

Russia and China knows it can't take too much too fast. Valuable lessons taught in WW2 showing that nations will eventually confront them if they do that.

[JayH]

Some people just don't want to fight. A guy holds a gun to you which puts you at a disadvantage. He asks for your wallet. If you give it to him, are you compromising and doing his work?

Many people in Ukraine have already made the ultimate sacrifice in facing the guys with the guns.There is strong belief in what they are fighting for  -- and it is a far more important issue than handing over a wallet.
  As the article says "appeasement has never worked" -- a theme I wrote about a few posts earlier here.

We are about to enter a most important time for Ukraine and it's citizens and supporters need a clear idea of what is acceptable-- and practical.

This quote sums it up nicely .

"Ukraine’s realism should consist not in kneeling before the Kremlin but in becoming stronger in the face of aggression: further bolstering its military, building a sustainable economic base for the war effort through free-market reforms, introducing the rule of law, and driving out a corrupt, irresponsible and traitorous elite."

No appeasement


In late 2013, former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych tried to crush Ukrainians’ dream of joining the civilized world by backing out of an association deal with the European Union. Since then, Ukrainians have been fighting for their European dream, first on the barricades in Kyiv, and then on the war front in the Donbas.

The war with Russia is not just about the technicalities of the association agreement. It is about a civilizational choice between being part of a murderous totalitarian empire, or part of the free world.

Three years after Yanukovych’s downfall, billionaire oligarch Victor Pinchuk is proposing that Ukraine abandon its dream and drop plans to join NATO and the European Union. He says that Ukraine should appease the aggressor by recognizing its annexation of Crimea de facto, if not de jure, and agreeing to elections in the Russian-occupied Donbas, which would legitimize the Kremlin’s puppets there.

Pinchuk’s plan is not just a betrayal of those whose blood was spilled during the EuroMaidan Revolution of 2013-14 and the 10,000 who lost their lives in the war instigated by Russia. It is also utterly naive and illogical, despite its professed pragmatism and realism.

First: any deal with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, a cynical and shameless liar, is not worth the paper it is written on. No amount of concessions or agreements will guarantee that Russia will cease its war against Ukraine and will not proceed to grab another piece of Ukrainian territory.

Second: as Benjamin Franklin said, those who sacrifice liberty for security will have neither. Abandoning the principles of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its uncompromising opposition to Russian aggression for the sake of pragmatic considerations entails the nation becoming morally bankrupt.

And if Ukraine gives up its moral integrity, it will only invite more bullying from the Kremlin.

Historically, appeasement has never worked.

Third: Ukraine’s realism should consist not in kneeling before the Kremlin but in becoming stronger in the face of aggression: further bolstering its military, building a sustainable economic base for the war effort through free-market reforms, introducing the rule of law, and driving out a corrupt, irresponsible and traitorous elite.

When Ukraine becomes stronger, it will not have to bow either to Putin or to incoming U.S. President Donald Trump. Neither will it have to beg for admission to the free world – it will have earned a place by right.

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/editorial/no-appeasement.html

[BillyB]

Many people in Ukraine have already made the ultimate sacrifice in facing the guys with the guns.There is strong belief in what they are fighting for  -- and it is a far more important issue than handing over a wallet.
  As the article says "appeasement has never worked" -- a theme I wrote about a few posts earlier here.

I was referring to people and nations outside of Ukraine. They feel their wallet(Ukraine) isn't worth fighting over. They don't want to get involved. They want to forget about the incident and let the thug run loose in the streets rather than confronting the thug. The leaders in the Western world made up their minds. Sanctions is all they'll do so it's a waiting game. Did Cuba, Iran, and North Korea give in to sanctions? I predict Russia won't give in either. Russia is going to destabilize Ukraine for many years to come unless they can get Ukrainians to vote in another puppet president that will answer to Russia.