Ukraine-The Future

[lordtiberius]

I'm not.   I must hang with folks with a better outlook on life.

Well, if you had not been paid in months, if you got a notice that you will be conscripted, receive 6 weeks of training and off to the front you go, if you had your savings confiscated by Delta bank, if you have to decide to leave the country or fight other Russians, if you have been terrorized for a year by people who all your life you called brothers, that might dampened your outlook on life.

[AkMike]

Anyone that I know wouldn't stay at a 'job' where they didn't get paid. They'd hustle up another job. SAME AS HERE. 

 The Delta failure was insured. They should be able to recover funds if it's under 10K USD IIRC.

 If he's of age to serve his country then do it. 6 weeks seems a bit short for basic training but others have done it without any time in basic training. Think Azov and Donbass volunteers! They paid their own way to boot.

[lordtiberius]

Lol

[JayH]

It seems everyone is sceptical--  this article discusses some of the implications and side issues.

Ukraine ceasefire: European leaders sceptical peace plan will work



European leaders have praised Germany and France for brokering a ceasefire and peace plan for Ukraine, but privately voiced scepticism that the pact struck after a marathon all-night summit in Belarus would work. They worried that an upsurge in fighting before the truce is supposed to take hold in eastern Ukraine on Sunday could quickly turn into a bloodbath.

“The next 48 hours will be crucial,” said one EU diplomat at a summit in Brussels dominated by the Ukraine breakthrough.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/12/ukraine-ceasefire-european-leaders-sceptical-peace-plan-will-work

[JayH]

More observation of note-- so many getting this correct today--


A Flawed Deal In Minsk

Three presidents and a chancellor pulled an all-nighter in Minsk.

And after marathon talks they produced a cease-fire agreement that -- if implemented -- might stop the fighting between government forces and pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's Donbas region.

This is the part and comment that hits the nail on the head to me--
Quoting
"But even if it does that, the agreement does little to address the real issue at the heart of the conflict between Kyiv and Moscow: Ukraine's future political direction.
"Putin’s plan to invade first & negotiate later paid off. Haggled over Debaltseve, not Crimea. Aggression rewarded again, encourages more," Russian opposition figure Garry Kasparov tweeted.

Ok, now for the bad news. The rest of the agreement is fraught with peril and pitfalls."
http://www.rferl.org/content/a-flawed-deal-in-minsk/26845309.html

[lordtiberius]

The only way for this to end is for Ukraine to go on the offensive.  Halfway measures like "defensive weapons" are going to work.  Ukraine is a smaller force going up against a larger force.  The Russians also have better weapons and in some instances better tactics - air defense being a conspicuous advantage. 

The Russians spend $ 88 Billion of their $ 2 trillion economy on the military.  That is why I recommended $ 100 billion in military aid which is double the George Soros figure and that figure excludes economic aid which Ukraine needs.

Also Russia must be attacked by proxy on different fronts.  Russia is withdrawing in Central Asia to fight in Ukraine.  Russia has a large Muslim population.  They will be slowly radicalized as the withdraw continues.  Russia has interests in the Middle East.  Russia's economy is shrinking.  Their ability to resupply their proxies like Iran, the Yemeni Houthis and ISIS would be threatened by a Ukrainian escalation.  Also we need to fortify the Baltic's.

Lastly, no SWIFT for Russia.

[Steamer]

The Russians spend $ 88 Billion of their $ 2 trillion economy on the military.  That is why I recommended $ 100 billion in military aid which is double the George Soros figure and that figure excludes economic aid which Ukraine needs.

...and who do you think is going to pay for this?

Also Russia must be attacked by proxy on different fronts.

Who are you volunteering to do this attacking? They may tell you to stuff it.

[lordtiberius]

...and who do you think is going to pay for this?


Who are you volunteering to do this attacking? They may tell you to stuff it.

You can debate me or insult me.  You cannot do both.  If you want to interrogate me, I will answer you but I expect the same courtesy.  Your responses apriori do not lend themselves to good will.

[Steamer]

You can debate me or insult me.  You cannot do both.  If you want to interrogate me, I will answer you but I expect the same courtesy.  Your responses apriori do not lend themselves to good will.

Ok, so answer the questions.

[jone]

Quite honestly, I agree with Steamer.  I cannot imagine, after the plethora of money spent on Iraq, that the US population would stand for contributing $100,000,000,000 to anything other than domestic issues.    It is time to deal in reality rather than fiction.

Having said that, a couple of well placed cluster bombs (aka Smart Pigs) would send the Russians scurrying for the hills in Eastern Ukraine.  By excluding the air force, Putin is setting his forces up for a big fall if any body really gets pissed with him.

For those of you who don't know, one of the US's joint standoff weapons are called 'Smart Pigs'.  They are a cluster bomb that can be dropped from a single bomber that can eliminate a tank army on the ground.  The smart cluster bombs target the engines of vehicles and detonate to disable.

For example:  ALL of the Russian tanks currently moving to Mariupol would be eliminated with one run by a Ukrainian aircraft dropping the bomblets.  Talk about your anti-tank weapons!

This technological advantage is typically what Russia is afraid of.  The US is still a generation ahead of Russia in munitions.  The goal for Russia is to destabilize Ukraine without having to face such a technological advantage.

[lordtiberius]

...and who do you think is going to pay for this?

the US alone

Who are you volunteering to do this attacking? They may tell you to stuff it.

Team Poroshenko


1.  Why is Russia in Ukraine?

2.  Why do the Novorossiya people humiliate its POWs?

[Steamer]

the US alone

Good luck with that.

Team Poroshenko


1.  Why is Russia in Ukraine?

2.  Why do the Novorossiya people humiliate its POWs?

1.  Protecting its buffer zone.


2.  Well at least they're not making necklaces out of their ears.

[Gator]

1.  Protecting its buffer zone.

A buffer from what?  Europe? 

EU showed its true colors when deciding not to send weapons to Ukraine.  If Europe through its agent NATO ever had plans about attacking Russia, they would be arming the Ukrainians now for the purpose of testing and probing the Russian military machine.

Russia needs a buffer only because it refuses to collaborate with the world community.  Russian under Putin is  behaving more and more like an outlaw, and the world is becoming a more interconnected community.    Russia needs a buffer so Putin can hide from his countrymen the success of the Western economy in improving the life of people. 

If Poroshenko can institutionalize the needed economic reforms, Ukraine will become a success story.  This would be a difficult undertaking for Poroshenko in peacetime.  With the Russian bear threatening him, the task is impossible.

[Steamer]

A buffer from what?  Europe? 

Yeah, Russia has never been attacked from Europe before has it?

[Boethius]

When was the last time that occurred?  Europe is a very different place.  And, while Russia's former enemies have lived relative peace, Russia has been embroiled in numerous wars.

[jone]

Yeah, Russia has never been attacked from Europe before has it?

Yeah, let's look at the last instance of all out war in Europe:

Russia conspired with Nazi Germany to 1.  Divide Poland and 2.  Occupy the Baltics.

All through a secret protocol. 

Then they ran to the last standing European power (England) to beg them for assistance as it looked like Moscow would fall.

So you were saying that the Russians should be afraid of other nations attacking?  Well, maybe after this latest round of belligerence, they should be? 

[Steamer]

When was the last time that occurred?  Europe is a very different place.  And, while Russia's former enemies have lived relative peace, Russia has been embroiled in numerous wars.

Times change. Todays friends can be tomorrows enemies.

[jone]

Times change. Todays friends can be tomorrows enemies.

Ms. Merkel would say you are living in '14.  That is 1914.  The same logic you are applying is the same logic that the Kremlin is applying.  It is logic for a bygone era.  Things are much more inter-related now.  Imagine if the Western World were to turn off Swift.  Russia would be on its knees or in an all-out war within six months.    That is the next step in sanctions.

Hmmm - maybe we shouldn't sell our junked Buicks to Japan?

[Steamer]

Ms. Merkel would say you are living in '14.  That is 1914.  The same logic you are applying is the same logic that the Kremlin is applying.  It is logic for a bygone era.  Things are much more inter-related now.

The last 70 years of Europe being at peace is actually very unusual. With all the EU trouble going on now it's not too hard to imagine something jumping off. Especially if the economic situation gets a lot worse. Money is the root of most wars.

[AkMike]

Times change. Todays friends can be tomorrows enemies.

 They tend to remain friendlier if they're not invaded!   

[lordtiberius]

Good luck with that.

thx

1.  Protecting its buffer zone.

How many people gotta die to give that prison its space?

2.  Well at least they're not making necklaces out of their ears.

Like the Crusades and the Inquisition excuses Muzzy terrorism?

Why is it that the Novorossiyas cannot defend the actions of the state of Novorossiya, they have draw some obscure moral equivalency? 

A buffer from what?  Europe? 

EU showed its true colors when deciding not to send weapons to Ukraine.  If Europe through its agent NATO ever had plans about attacking Russia, they would be arming the Ukrainians now for the purpose of testing and probing the Russian military machine.

Russia needs a buffer only because it refuses to collaborate with the world community.  Russian under Putin is  behaving more and more like an outlaw, and the world is becoming a more interconnected community.    Russia needs a buffer so Putin can hide from his countrymen the success of the Western economy in improving the life of people. 

If Poroshenko can institutionalize the needed economic reforms, Ukraine will become a success story.  This would be a difficult undertaking for Poroshenko in peacetime.  With the Russian bear threatening him, the task is impossible.

Navalny's policy to Ukraine is the same as Putin minus the dirty tricks and violence - an equal partnership versus the mafia approach that FT, Steamer, Doll, lFU and Belvis love so much.

[Boethius]

Times change. Todays friends can be tomorrows enemies.

War has changed.  Furthermore, those former enemies are already on Moscow's doorstep, through the Baltics.  Ukraine will matter not one iota.  This was never about Russian military security.  It was about economics.
Finally, I suspect Russia will have more trouble with its indigenous Muslim populations, and those of its neighbours, than with Europeans.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

[BillyB]

and who do you think is going to pay for this?

Many countries, including European nations that participated in WW2 still owe America for our help. Contrary to popular belief, our help isn't always free. If America helps Ukraine, Ukraine will be in debt to us. Better to be in debt than ceasing to exist.

1.  Protecting its buffer zone.

Putin said he doesn't want NATO coming to his doorstep but in Putin's Russia, Russia's doorstep comes to NATO. If Putin was really worried about NATO at his border, he should've dealt with the Baltics before they joined.

The last 70 years of Europe being at peace is actually very unusual.

 3rd most deadliest decade of war last century for Europe happened in the 90's. NATO was engaged in that war and assisted in the breakup of Yugoslavia. Putin has used that war and Libya to educate his people on what NATO is capable of. That is engaging in war without a member nation being attacked. In Yugoslavia there was ethnic cleansing. I would support the breakup of Ukraine if it were true that west Ukrainian Nazi's were exterminating ethnic Russians but it's just a fabricated story Putin uses to convince his people this war is just.

[jone]

The last 70 years of Europe being at peace is actually very unusual. With all the EU trouble going on now it's not too hard to imagine something jumping off. Especially if the economic situation gets a lot worse. Money is the root of most wars.

Steamer,

I had never acknowledged what an appropriate user name you have.  There you are, steaming along.  Whether that is good or bad, I'm not sure.

Europe would still be at peace with the exception of volatile Eastern Europe.  And when I say Eastern Europe, I say that it is the last bastion of true Oligarchies .  Or Kleptocracies.    Almost all of the other countries in Europe have at least a two party system with an active change in government once every ten years or so.

Imagine if there weren't Kleptocracies.  Then there would be a natural balance to governments.  This idea of a few having all of the resources and the rest of the countries being peasants belongs in the 19th century.  Yet here we have it today, in Russia.

You say money is the root of all evil?  Well, I would like to amend that for you.  Money, concentrated in the hands of a few, is the dominating factor in leading to belligerence and war.

It is not the United State's responsibility to play cop.  But when Europe spins out of control, it impacts the global economy.  At some point, the US is going to have to take a very active role.

[fathertime]

War has changed.  Furthermore, those former enemies are already on Moscow's doorstep, through the Baltics.  Ukraine will matter not one iota.  This was never about Russian military security.  It was about economics.

You must fail to see how the two are inextricably entwined in this case. 


Fathertime!