The Struggle For Ukraine

[Admin]

Poland has agreed to exchange their MIG 29's for fighter jets from the USA.


The Polish MIG 29's are going to a US Air base in Germany,presumably for the Ukrainian pilots to fly them to Ukraine from there.

A significant move. The Ukrainian Air Force had about 37 MiG-29's in active duty when the unprovoked attack began. Last count of Polish MiG-29's was 21 (or 23, depending on the source). Ukraine also flies about 60 Sukhoi attack aircraft. The addition of 20 new attack aircraft will add significant capability even though the 29's are Soviet-era dating back to the USSR. The basing decisions are interesting as well. Poland to Germany to Ukraine would mean that Russia will be faced with having to blame Poland for supplying the jets, Germany for hosting the transfer, and of course, the US for agreeing to backfill Poland with newer F-16's.

The greatest danger, IMO, is whether Putin becomes so unhinged he escalates into nukes. It's difficult to see Russia using tactical nukes in Ukraine. The theater offers no advantage by using nukes and the world reaction once that line is crossed will be overwhelming.


The ancient Chinese curse is upon us. We do indeed live in interesting times.

[Admin]

Interesting sidebar on the MiG-29 transfer from Poland to US to Ukraine. Poland urged all other NATO countries flying MiG-29s to provide them for Ukraine's use. Zelenskyy said in a press conference a few days ago they knew which countries have the aircraft and have reached out to all of them. It's difficult to get an exact count since some of them may be in mothballs but able to be returned to active flight quite quickly. Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria may all have suitable aircraft.

[Nightwish]

Interesting sidebar on the MiG-29 transfer from Poland to US to Ukraine. Poland urged all other NATO countries flying MiG-29s to provide them for Ukraine's use. Zelenskyy said in a press conference a few days ago they knew which countries have the aircraft and have reached out to all of them. It's difficult to get an exact count since some of them may be in mothballs but able to be returned to active flight quite quickly. Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria may all have suitable aircraft.

I heard the number of 70 available aircrafts (MIG29 & SU25/SU27) is in service in the surrounding countrys

[Bee Farmer]

The basing decisions are interesting as well. Poland to Germany to Ukraine would mean that Russia will be faced with having to blame Poland for supplying the jets, Germany for hosting the transfer, and of course, the US for agreeing to backfill Poland with newer F-16's.

Germany isn't hosting the transfer.  The only thing Germany is doing is allowing the jets to fly over their country.  The jets come from Poland, and are given to the US at the Ramstein US Air Base.  (Technically, that's US soil, not German.)  Then, the Ukrainian pilots fly the jets from the US Ramstein air base back to Ukraine.

Poland is just handing over the planes to the US government for the US to dispose of, so Russia can't say they gave jets to Ukraine.
It's happening at the US Air Base, so technically Germany isn't involved in hosting the transfer.

All the liability for giving the Mig-29's to the Ukrainians is on the US.

http://news.yahoo.com/poland-ready-place-mig-29-191348949.html

[ML]

Accept their little cookie, it isn't poisonous.   

Those who don't understand that cookies and other tracking devices can lead to harm are very naive.

[Patagonie]

A significant move. The Ukrainian Air Force had about 37 MiG-29's in active duty when the unprovoked attack began. Last count of Polish MiG-29's was 21 (or 23, depending on the source). Ukraine also flies about 60 Sukhoi attack aircraft. The addition of 20 new attack aircraft will add significant capability even though the 29's are Soviet-era dating back to the USSR. The basing decisions are interesting as well. Poland to Germany to Ukraine would mean that Russia will be faced with having to blame Poland for supplying the jets, Germany for hosting the transfer, and of course, the US for agreeing to backfill Poland with newer F-16's.

The greatest danger, IMO, is whether Putin becomes so unhinged he escalates into nukes. It's difficult to see Russia using tactical nukes in Ukraine. The theater offers no advantage by using nukes and the world reaction once that line is crossed will be overwhelming.


The ancient Chinese curse is upon us. We do indeed live in interesting times.

This is why NATO forces shouldn't cross the border, no-fly zone should be set up.
Zelenski is constantly pushing all other countries to be militarily involved in the struggle. He has spent his time talking about integratingNATO and EU.
IMHO it's a big political mistake, you cannot push the bear in the corner every second. He could nuke bite you. 

[rwd123]

The greatest danger, IMO, is whether Putin becomes so unhinged he escalates into nukes. It's difficult to see Russia using tactical nukes in Ukraine.

It's not Putin who is at risk of becoming unhinged, it is Western leaders who are already unhinged.

Russia has superior missile technology, both defensive (S-500 systems) and offensive (operational hypersonic missiles, including launch at sea and obviously nuclear capability). De-escalation and diplomacy should be the priority. Zelensky has already changed his tune, things probably aren't going as well as reported in the West.

http://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership?ref=tw

This is why NATO forces shouldn't cross the border, no-fly zone should be set up.
Zelenski is constantly pushing all other countries to be militarily involved in the struggle. He has spent his time talking about integratingNATO and EU.
IMHO it's a big political mistake, you cannot push the bear in the corner every second. He could nuke bite you.

A "no fly zone" is aerial combat. It's entry into the conflict. The EU/NATO are nuts. They are facing self-inflicted economic collapse and potential hot war escalating into nuclear war. An embargo is a bellicose act, if not an act of war.

The USA is effectively killing the petrodollar. Madness. Saudis told Biden to sod off when asked to pump more oil. Now the administration is begging to Maduro and trying to cut a deal with Iran. All the while Russia's loss of volume of sales will be offset somewhat by increased margin due to skyrocketing prices. China, India and others will continue to buy oil from Russia. Absolute cluster fuck.

China will probably enter a recession but will be the big beneficiary of all of this. The USA's influence in the world will wane. Europe is done. And still the specter of nuclear war remains.

Good buying opportunities in Russia IMO if you're willing to live with capital controls. USD/RUB went from 74 to 141 (now at 128). Russian stocks hammered, commodity producers are still required. Unsure if real estate prices have increased in RUB yet. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are reportedly scooping up bargains and the Chinese are looking to do the same.

Russian citizens are already feeling the pain. Those in the West will too soon enough.

[Trenchcoat]

Those on here stating that Putin/Russia will invade Finland I believe are mistaken, just look at this map:

http://maproom.net/shop/eu-map/

While Finland isn't a member of NATO it is a member of the EU, so is Sweden. So the EU policy of an attack on one member state by an outside force is deemed an attack on all member states comes into play. That means Russia has potentially every army in the EU on their case plus France has Nukes. The EU will have no choice but to bring all the armies of its member states to bear in a defensive mission against Russian aggression.

Now while Finland isn't a member of NATO, many other members of the EU are and they will likely petition NATO to get involved, particularly the NATO members in Eastern Europe. That means both the UK & US etc getting involved as well, both with Nukes also.

So Russia basically isn't going to attack Finland, Finland in any case now have time to improve its military while Russia gets run down attacking Ukraine. Russia will most likely attack Georgia next, it's an easy target for them and like Ukraine has disputed territory to use as an excuse for an attack. After that Putin may go after incorporating the Stand more into Russia, there quite a lot of land there to keep him busy. Dealing with all of that will likely take many years and a lot of Putin's attention. Putin is an old man now so he's only got so many years left. All the while of course sanctions running the Russian economy down. So I very much doubt Russia will take on NATO. After all what this escapade ha shown is that Russia are having difficulties with a nation with military like Ukraine. Against EU/NATO it would be a unwinnable battle for Russia fullstop, not to say EU/NATO would win either it would basically be blasting each other in mass destruction for no gain.

Many hawks out there unfortunately trying to talk countries into war with the argument that we would be next. They are so desperate to satisfy their appetite for war that they don't realise what they are suggesting is playing with fire. They are idiots arguing that we should basically take a gamble and back up Ukraine militarily and hope they don't fire Nukes at some point and we both end up in MAD. They are happy that we get dragged into a war with Russia any which possible way, by no fly zones, direct military intervention whatever they can think off. We need to keep ignoring these over zealous idiots in the west and keep the hell out of it. If Russia win, which I think they will, then they are left with the problem of what to do with Ukraine, whatever they do I can't see them doing well out of Ukraine. I say leave them to tread on their own feet, that she the bes to long term fix to this conflict I believe. Sanctions are doing a great job and I think that is the way ahead for us getting some leverage over this situation.

[Trenchcoat]

Apparently a cold snap on the way starting later today it seems, could help Ukrainians though possibly all and everyone may suffer out there:

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-kyiv-convoy-putin-1685806

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10588875/Ukraine-war-Russian-advance-slows-significantly-children-hurt-strikes.html


Ukrainians digging in, in and around Kyiv:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60671329

A real sense that it's all reaching a climax now.

[Chelseaboy]

It's  Putin who is  unhinged,

Russia has superior missile technology, both defensive (S-500 systems) and offensive (operational hypersonic missiles, including launch at sea and obviously nuclear capability). De-escalation and diplomacy should be the priority. Zelensky has already changed his tune, things probably aren't going as well as reported in the West.

http://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership?ref=tw
A "no fly zone" is aerial combat. It's entry into the conflict. Russia is nuts. They are facing self-inflicted economic collapse and potential hot war escalating into nuclear war.

The USA is effectively killing the petrodollar. Madness. Saudis told Biden to sod off when asked to pump more oil. Now the administration is begging to Maduro and trying to cut a deal with Iran. All the while Russia's loss of volume of sales will be offset somewhat by increased margin due to skyrocketing prices. China, India and others will continue to buy oil from Russia. Absolute cluster fuck.

China will probably enter a recession but will be the big beneficiary of all of this. The USA's influence in the world will wane. Europe is done. And still the specter of nuclear war remains.

Good buying opportunities in Russia IMO if you're willing to live with capital controls. USD/RUB went from 74 to 141 (now at 128). Russian stocks hammered, commodity producers are still required. Unsure if real estate prices have increased in RUB yet. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are reportedly scooping up bargains and the Chinese are looking to do the same.

Russian citizens are already feeling the pain. Those in the West will too soon enough.

There..fixed that for you.


Last time i looked it was Russia who invaded Ukraine and started a war.


By the way USA...UK...France have Nukes too..


If the unhinged despot Mad Vlad starts a Nuclear war he's pressing a self-destruct button.

[ML]

General Magomed Tushaev died when his Chechen special forces column was obliterated near Hostomel, north-east of the city.

Warlord Vladimir Zhonga is also among the dead. Zhonga led the Sparta Battalion, a Neo-Nazi military unit that boasted the backing of the Kremlin.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/nine-russian-generals-killed-war-26417757     8 March 2022

[rwd123]

There..fixed that for you.


Last time i looked it was Russia who invaded Ukraine and started a war.


By the way USA...UK...France have Nukes too..


If the unhinged despot Mad Vlad starts a Nuclear war he's pressing a self-destruct button.

Reality check.

This conflict is an escalation of a civil war largely stemming from a US-backed coup in Ukraine eight years ago. Prior to recent events there were 13,000+ civilian deaths and millions of refugees.

Ukraine was de facto turning into a NATO member, wanted NATO membership, made comments about acquiring nuclear weapons, and has official government policy of taking Crimea by force. In addition, the US and UK have both provoked Russia by nearing or entering their territorial waters last year. This conflict wasn't 'unprovoked'.

Russia has hypersonic weapons that are unstoppable by current western defensive systems. Russia has the world's best defensive missile systems. Their older S-300 system proved to be effective in Syria: http://thesaker.is/u-s-u-k-france-conduct-massive-missile-strike-on-syria-details/

If Russia is pushed hard enough it may let the nukes fly. Not because Putin is unhinged but because the balance of probabilities heavily favors striking western countries given that it has been backed into a corner. De-escalation is absolutely necessary ASAP.

The Russian government's actions are certainly questionable but also rational.

[Bee Farmer]

While Finland isn't a member of NATO it is a member of the EU, so is Sweden. So the EU policy of an attack on one member state by an outside force is deemed an attack on all member states comes into play. That means Russia has potentially every army in the EU on their case plus France has Nukes. The EU will have no choice but to bring all the armies of its member states to bear in a defensive mission against Russian aggression.

Now while Finland isn't a member of NATO, many other members of the EU are and they will likely petition NATO to get involved, particularly the NATO members in Eastern Europe. That means both the UK & US etc getting involved as well, both with Nukes also.

Your assessment is deeply flawed.  For starters, the EU is a joke.  It's a political and economic alliance.  The military defense alliance is a joke.

Only 2 countries in the EU have power projection capabilities.  Italy and France, and Italy is a financial basketcase still.  France is the only country in the EU with nukes.  Italy can't afford to go to war, and it's questionable if France could afford much of a war.  What you really have are a bunch of cheerleader countries who are threatening to defend all the other cheerleaders with their pom poms.

NATO is the real military defense alliance, and that is because of the USA.  Without the USA, NATO would be toothless like the EU.

After all what this escapade ha shown is that Russia are having difficulties with a nation with military like Ukraine.  Against EU/NATO it would be a unwinnable battle for Russia fullstop, not to say EU/NATO would win either it would basically be blasting each other in mass destruction for no gain.

It is not Ukraine's military that is causing them the most problems.  It is their own logistics problems.  Russian logistics are based upon railroad supply.  They have a hard time advancing more than 100 miles in front of their supply depot.

Attacking Finland would not trigger NATO involvement.  (NATO countries might sanction, but it is doubtful NATO would get involved, just like NATO isn't getting involved now in Ukraine.)  It would trigger EU defense, but Russia could quickly take a good portion of the country before the EU military could mobilize.  If/when the EU did mobilize, then Russia could agree to a ceasefire, at which time they would get to keep the ground they had already taken. 

So the real question is, how much ground could Russia gain before the EU military alliance could mobilize?  How much blood and treasure will they lose int he operation? How much in sanctions would they have to pay?  That is the calculation they have to compute.

In the case of Ukraine, they thought they could do a blitzkreig on the eastern and southern parts of the country.  They thought Ukraine would capitulate and they could take the vast part of the country before anyone knew what happened.  If any of Ukraine remained, it would be a small, weak, landlocked area in the west of Ukraine, and Lviv would likely be the new capital.  (Supposedly, Russia had offered to split Ukraine with Poland a few years ago.)

[Jumper1]

The last time they  false flagged
and  attacked Finland dint go so well.
All appearances now point to similar outcome if they trued again.

Russia has the shear numbers to obliterate Ukraine.
That's not what they want.
However playing this  current ground game may cost them a lot more thsn they planed to pay for their objective.

[Boethius]

Reality check.

This conflict is an escalation of a civil war largely stemming from a US-backed coup in Ukraine eight years ago. Prior to recent events there were 13,000+ civilian deaths and millions of refugees.

Ukraine was de facto turning into a NATO member, wanted NATO membership, made comments about acquiring nuclear weapons, and has official government policy of taking Crimea by force. In addition, the US and UK have both provoked Russia by nearing or entering their territorial waters last year. This conflict wasn't 'unprovoked'.

Russia has hypersonic weapons that are unstoppable by current western defensive systems. Russia has the world's best defensive missile systems. Their older S-300 system proved to be effective in Syria: http://thesaker.is/u-s-u-k-france-conduct-massive-missile-strike-on-syria-details/

If Russia is pushed hard enough it may let the nukes fly. Not because Putin is unhinged but because the balance of probabilities heavily favors striking western countries given that it has been backed into a corner. De-escalation is absolutely necessary ASAP.

The Russian government's actions are certainly questionable but also rational.

Oh, please.  There was no "US backed coup" in Ukraine.  The US came into Ukraine very late in the game in 2014.

The protests against Yanukovych started because he refused to sign an association agreement with the EU - something a majority of Ukrainians, particularly young Ukrainians, wanted.  They see their future as westward, not eastward looking, thanks to the Putin kleptocracy.  The Putinistas just showed Ukraine what their future would be if they turned eastward - the same corruption absent human rights and democracy. 

Ukraine was not turning into a de facto NATO member.  NATO membership was never on the table, and I doubt strongly that NATO was an issue in this invasion.  This was about democracy, and a longing for a totalitarian past that can't be recreated, not NATO.  If Russia has any espionage capabilities, it knows NATO membership was never going to happen.

As for oil, Russia currently supplies about 7% of the world's oil.  Oil is at low capacity right now thanks to the collapse in 2014 and low supplies since - both market forces and COVID.  That meant that as COVID died down, capacity needed to increase to levels not seen in over half a decade, so supplies were already tight.  In the very short term, prices will increase, but overall, whether Iran and Venezuela come in line or not, oil prices will come down. 

Russia can't replace EU markets easily.  There is only so much oil China needs, and getting Russian oil to India is difficult.  Refiners there are already asking that both Russian and Kazakh oil be sold on a delivered basis, as refiners are having trouble finding financing, insurance, and tankers. 

As for buying Russian stock - sure, do so for a long term hold.  I don't think sanctions will go away quickly.  Morally, it's also akin to trading with Germany in October 1939 and beyond.

How, exactly, was Russia backed into a corner?  It wasn't forced to invade a sovereign nation to reestablish a "ruski mir".  It was in no mortal danger from Ukraine, militarily or economically.  By the time political ideas had any effect within Russia, Putin and his geriatric cabinet would have been long dead, or subsisting on toothless foods like kasha.

[Boethius]

Oh, and the Saudis have not said no.  They just want a number of outrageous (IMHO) preconditions met before they will come to the table.

[fathertime]

It's not Putin who is at risk of becoming unhinged, it is Western leaders who are already unhinged.

Russia's dick was already in the dirt, and now we *The US* have go ahead and kick ourselves in the balls as well.   Within 1 month we will start to feel it here in the states.  Gasoline prices have changed everybody's attitude I come across.  Taking the earlier measures, we did was ok, but suddenly banning Russian oil, talk of no fly zones, trying to use NATO countries to help backdoor get involved are all bad moves...Seems clear now, Russia will take Ukraine regardless of the cost, it is only a question of how much destruction, and death at the expense of Ukraine it will take.

If Russia is pushed hard enough it may let the nukes fly. Not because Putin is unhinged but because the balance of probabilities heavily favors striking western countries given that it has been backed into a corner. De-escalation is absolutely necessary ASAP.
 

 
Some people have tried to chastise me for bringing up Nuclear weapons last week.  Pretending as though it isn't a real Russian option isn't going to change the reality that it is.  The ugly event of war in the age of nuclear weapons isn't to rub snouts in the dirt.  Always leave outs for nations like Russia, China, and USA.  In this case we are close to breaking the unwritten rules.  Russia has made an aggressive move and are paying dearly for it.  Leaving it at that is the best we will be able to do. 

  Zelensky has already changed his tune, things probably aren't going as well as reported in the West.

Earlier today Zelensky sounded like he was ready to go down with the ship.  With that attitude, Russia will try to make that happen.  Look at happened to Khadaffy, or Saddam Hussein, when the US was involved. Tried it with Assad for months but failed on that one .   

The USA is effectively killing the petrodollar. Madness. Saudis told Biden to sod off when asked to pump more oil. Now the administration is begging to Maduro and trying to cut a deal with Iran. All the while Russia's loss of volume of sales will be offset somewhat by increased margin due to skyrocketing prices. China, India and others will continue to buy oil from Russia. Absolute cluster fuck.

Unreal regarding the petrodollar.  Our way of life is in rather immediate jeopardy.  With our history, Iran, Venezuela, China India, nobody is going to try to soften the blow.  We are sticking our neck out there a bit for sure.     

Fathertime! 

[Trenchcoat]

Your assessment is deeply flawed.  For starters, the EU is a joke.  It's a political and economic alliance.  The military defense alliance is a joke.

Only 2 countries in the EU have power projection capabilities.  Italy and France, and Italy is a financial basketcase still.  France is the only country in the EU with nukes.  Italy can't afford to go to war, and it's questionable if France could afford much of a war.  What you really have are a bunch of cheerleader countries who are threatening to defend all the other cheerleaders with their pom poms.

NATO is the real military defense alliance, and that is because of the USA.  Without the USA, NATO would be toothless like the EU.

It is not Ukraine's military that is causing them the most problems.  It is their own logistics problems.  Russian logistics are based upon railroad supply.  They have a hard time advancing more than 100 miles in front of their supply depot.

Attacking Finland would not trigger NATO involvement.  (NATO countries might sanction, but it is doubtful NATO would get involved, just like NATO isn't getting involved now in Ukraine.)  It would trigger EU defense, but Russia could quickly take a good portion of the country before the EU military could mobilize.  If/when the EU did mobilize, then Russia could agree to a ceasefire, at which time they would get to keep the ground they had already taken. 

So the real question is, how much ground could Russia gain before the EU military alliance could mobilize?  How much blood and treasure will they lose int he operation? How much in sanctions would they have to pay?  That is the calculation they have to compute.

In the case of Ukraine, they thought they could do a blitzkreig on the eastern and southern parts of the country.  They thought Ukraine would capitulate and they could take the vast part of the country before anyone knew what happened.  If any of Ukraine remained, it would be a small, weak, landlocked area in the west of Ukraine, and Lviv would likely be the new capital.  (Supposedly, Russia had offered to split Ukraine with Poland a few years ago.)

Bee Farmer, not living anywhere near the EU means that your not aware how things work there, what you say is ludicrous. It is well known I'm not the biggest fan of the EU but even the EU are useless as they are sometimes has some degree of organisation and mobilising power. In the virus pandemic though they ended up coming off second best to the quick response of the UK they did at least get to a response through slower than was helpful in the situation.

Fundamentally the EU cannot let an attack by an outside force on one of its members go unchallenged. It would threaten it's very existence and cause meant members to question being a part of it. They would have to organise a military response. They would not agree to any cease fire that would give away any territory the EU is way too pig headed for that, it took the UK many years to negotiate Brexit due to the EU's obstinacy. Once you understand the EU bureaucracy, attitude, etc then you will understand how they work and what to expect in any given situation, maybe not 100 percent but near enough in most cases.

Now Poland and many of the other East European states bordering Ukraine and Russia are NATO members. If Finland wax invaded they would be keen to call upon NATO as they are next in the row of countries down from Finland that might face invasion. France already has Nukes and is a NATO member also so whether just the EU or EU and NATO Nukes would be on the table either way. There is no certainty of NATO involvement but it's highly likely as a NATO member with Nukes, France would already be involved due to it being an EU member.

Within the EU France is likely the strongest military but it's bureaucratic (where the EU gets it from) and so that can sometimes hinder effectiveness, ability to move quickly and decisively. Italy and Spain are private decent enough armies. The real sleeping giant is Germany, they could be big and really bolster Europe's defence but it still hasn't got over its WWII hang up's and till date hasn't wanted to get too involved with creating a strong army again. It's really what the EU needs to really have a very effective component to the armies it may field. The rest, the Eastern Bloc armies are likely ok but could do with sone upgrading. They will have a fair amount of troops to bring to bear so in numbers will at least help on that front. Cumulatively there is enough defence jointly within the EU for Russia but to want to risk blunting their military and suffer total defeat by declaring war in EU members for no good reason like it has in Ukraine.

[fathertime]

Those who don't understand that cookies and other tracking devices can lead to harm are very naive.

Maybe I'm not clear on what these little cookies can do, but on popular news sites what harm are they going to cause me...

Fathertime!   

[Bee Farmer]

Ukraine was not turning into a de facto NATO member.  NATO membership was never on the table, and I doubt strongly that NATO was an issue in this invasion. 

I agree.  Russia (Kaliningrad) is already surrounded by NATO. (Poland and Lithuania.)  Latvia is NATO, and borders Russia.  As far as I know, there are no nukes stationed in Poland, Lithuania, or Latvia.

Have you ever seen someone who had to sell off part of the family farm?  And afterwards, they are full of bitterness and resentment?  In their mind, that sold part still "belongs" to them.  It is an injustice that someone else controls that land now.  That is what Putin reminds me of.

I was in Ukraine in October 2013 for a beekeeping conference.  I didn't hear anyone wax nostalgia for the Soviet era.  Everyone was excited at the prospect of the European agreement.  They believed it would open up trade so they could make more money, and they believed it would help reduce corruption in Ukraine.  (Granted, I didn't visit the Eastern part of the country.  I spent time in Odessa, Kyiv, Zhytomir, Bila Tserkva, etc.)

[Bee Farmer]

It is well known I'm not the biggest fan of the EU but even the EU are useless as they are sometimes has some degree of organisation and mobilising power. In the virus pandemic though they ended up coming off second best to the quick response of the UK they did at least get to a response through slower than was helpful in the situation.

Fundamentally the EU cannot let an attack by an outside force on one of its members go unchallenged. It would threaten it's very existence and cause meant members to question being a part of it. They would have to organise a military response. They would not agree to any cease fire that would give away any territory the EU is way too pig headed for that, it took the UK many years to negotiate Brexit due to the EU's obstinacy. Once you understand the EU bureaucracy, attitude, etc then you will understand how they work and what to expect in any given situation, maybe not 100 percent but near enough in most cases.

Once again, the EU is a joke as a military alliance.  You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.  Words on paper don't stop bombs and bullets.  It's easy to promise to defend another country - actually producing military equipment and men is a different story.

You say the EU would organize a military response if a EU member were attacked.  What are they doing to use to organize a military response?  What are they going to do, pick up sticks to fight with?  They can't even meet their minimum obligations under NATO.  (Trump threatened to pull out of NATO because the other NATO members didn't want to pay for a military, and just wanted the US to be their military protection and pay for everything.)   How are they going to organize a military response for the EU?

In theory, all members are supposed to organize to defend anyone else.  But let me explain how it works in reality.  Every individual country says, "I don't need a military anymore.  Everyone else will protect me.  I will have the smallest possible military...just enough for appearance purposes.  I don't want to spend any money on a military."  What you end up with is a group of countries that have minimal military capability.  Everyone in the EU expects everyone else to save them if they are attacked.

Germany is supposed to be the economic powerhouse of Europe.  They should be able to afford quality weaponry.  They finally donated some anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.  They were Soviet era missiles that had been in storage so long that 1/3 were corroded so badly they were unusable, and it is uncertain if any of the others are usable.  What does the rest of their equipment look like?   

Do you think Putin and the Kremlin doesn't know this?  They are opportunistic, and want to try taking advantage of any situation if they can. 

[rwd123]

Oh, please.  There was no "US backed coup" in Ukraine.  The US came into Ukraine very late in the game in 2014.
...
How, exactly, was Russia backed into a corner?  It wasn't forced to invade a sovereign nation to reestablish a "ruski mir".  It was in no mortal danger from Ukraine, militarily or economically.  By the time political ideas had any effect within Russia, Putin and his geriatric cabinet would have been long dead, or subsisting on toothless foods like kasha.

The US was involved and has remained involved. Ukraine has been supplied and trained by NATO (USA). That's not to justify Russia's actions but one can't honestly turn a blind eye either. I didn't say Russia was backed into a corner, I said if it is backed into a corner.

Russia's share of world oil sales is slightly higher than that, and it's naive to think supplies can be ramped up in a hurry. There's talk of multi-year incremental sanctions. That's absolutely going to split the world in two. The west will lose out.

But it's more than hydrocarbons. Nickel, uranium, titanium, gold, copper, aluminum and other hard commodities will be impacted severely. A large percentage of fertilizer is exported from Belarus (25% from memory). Ukraine and Russia account for almost a third of global wheat production. What's going to happen to the harvest this year?

Countries like Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia face the real risk of civil unrest due to rising food prices. Everything is going to get a lot more expensive and supply chains are going to break down. Global food insecurity is a big worry - including in western countries.

This is arguably more dangerous than any time during the Cold War. Russia has superior missile technology. Poland offering planes is insane (seems like the Pentagon are not so crazy). Do you think Russia will sit by and do nothing? If it does, do you think it wouldn't consider a nuclear strike?

Ukraine is collateral damage between USA and Russia. Dragging the whole world down with it IMO is not a very intelligent idea. As catastrophic as events are in Ukraine I am gravely concerned for the state of world affairs. This is a regional conflict that is now global and spiraling out of control. The lack of diplomacy is astounding.

A commodity producer like Canada may fare better than others, but the west is kaput. The EU is a disaster that will collapse in as spectacular fashion as the USSR.

[John Gaunt]

The US was involved and has remained involved. Ukraine has been supplied and trained by NATO (USA). That's not to justify Russia's actions but one can't honestly turn a blind eye either. I didn't say Russia was backed into a corner, I said if it is backed into a corner.

Russia's share of world oil sales is slightly higher than that, and it's naive to think supplies can be ramped up in a hurry. There's talk of multi-year incremental sanctions. That's absolutely going to split the world in two. The west will lose out.

But it's more than hydrocarbons. Nickel, uranium, titanium, gold, copper, aluminum and other hard commodities will be impacted severely. A large percentage of fertilizer is exported from Belarus (25% from memory). Ukraine and Russia account for almost a third of global wheat production. What's going to happen to the harvest this year?

Countries like Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia face the real risk of civil unrest due to rising food prices. Everything is going to get a lot more expensive and supply chains are going to break down. Global food insecurity is a big worry - including in western countries.

This is arguably more dangerous than any time during the Cold War. Russia has superior missile technology. Poland offering planes is insane (seems like the Pentagon are not so crazy). Do you think Russia will sit by and do nothing? If it does, do you think it wouldn't consider a nuclear strike?

Ukraine is collateral damage between USA and Russia. Dragging the whole world down with it IMO is not a very intelligent idea. As catastrophic as events are in Ukraine I am gravely concerned for the state of world affairs. This is a regional conflict that is now global and spiraling out of control. The lack of diplomacy is astounding.

A commodity producer like Canada may fare better than others, but the west is kaput. The EU is a disaster that will collapse in as spectacular fashion as the USSR.

There’s a reason why you’re not at the table of international diplomacy. ☝🏻

[Patagonie]

I agree.  Russia (Kaliningrad) is already surrounded by NATO. (Poland and Lithuania.)  Latvia is NATO, and borders Russia.  As far as I know, there are no nukes stationed in Poland, Lithuania, or Latvia.

Have you ever seen someone who had to sell off part of the family farm?  And afterwards, they are full of bitterness and resentment?  In their mind, that sold part still "belongs" to them.  It is an injustice that someone else controls that land now.  That is what Putin reminds me of.

I was in Ukraine in October 2013 for a beekeeping conference.  I didn't hear anyone wax nostalgia for the Soviet era.  Everyone was excited at the prospect of the European agreement.  They believed it would open up trade so they could make more money, and they believed it would help reduce corruption in Ukraine.  (Granted, I didn't visit the Eastern part of the country.  I spent time in Odessa, Kyiv, Zhytomir, Bila Tserkva, etc.)

I was in Ukraine in October 2013 for a beekeeping conference.  I didn't hear anyone wax nostalgia for the Soviet era.  Everyone was excited at the prospect of the European agreement.  They believed it would open up trade so they could make more money, and they believed it would help reduce corruption in Ukraine.  (Granted, I didn't visit the Eastern part of the country.  I spent time in Odessa, Kyiv, Zhytomir, Bila Tserkva, etc.) 
 
 
 
Correct

[Trenchcoat]

Once again, the EU is a joke as a military alliance.  You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.  Words on paper don't stop bombs and bullets.  It's easy to promise to defend another country - actually producing military equipment and men is a different story.

You say the EU would organize a military response if a EU member were attacked.  What are they doing to use to organize a military response?  What are they going to do, pick up sticks to fight with?  They can't even meet their minimum obligations under NATO.  (Trump threatened to pull out of NATO because the other NATO members didn't want to pay for a military, and just wanted the US to be their military protection and pay for everything.)   How are they going to organize a military response for the EU?

In theory, all members are supposed to organize to defend anyone else.  But let me explain how it works in reality.  Every individual country says, "I don't need a military anymore.  Everyone else will protect me.  I will have the smallest possible military...just enough for appearance purposes.  I don't want to spend any money on a military."  What you end up with is a group of countries that have minimal military capability.  Everyone in the EU expects everyone else to save them if they are attacked.

Germany is supposed to be the economic powerhouse of Europe.  They should be able to afford quality weaponry.  They finally donated some anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.  They were Soviet era missiles that had been in storage so long that 1/3 were corroded so badly they were unusable, and it is uncertain if any of the others are usable.  What does the rest of their equipment look like?   

Do you think Putin and the Kremlin doesn't know this?  They are opportunistic, and want to try taking advantage of any situation if they can.

The EU is not a member of NATO itself only some of its member states are. Some EU member states are not a member of NATO. The big problem with NATO as trump found is that it can make a lot of its members slack as you say with regards to stumping up money for their own defence. Germany has been a big one on that front, instead of spending what they should have on defence they have been putting that money towards their economy hence part of the reason they are the largest economy in Europe. They essentially haven't been spending out on their military as they should have been as they know they can call on NATO, i.e the US to do that in a pinch. So the US through NATO has been taking a lot of the economic burden for the EU's defence.

Hence why I say NATO should have been wound down and that burden passed over to the EU. The AUKUS alliance is a better situation for the US, the UK, and eventually Australia. It keeps us far enough away from conflict but at a strategic distance and makes sure that the members included can pull their own weight and have militaries up to the task. A lot of NATO members are now former Eastern Bloc countries and while their militaries aren't the worst they are far from the best also. Take Poland, Romania, etc old Soviet era stuff, planes, stuff that is mothballed. They aren't great allies as they are a burden, don't have great militaries and come with higher risk/liability of being drawn into a war with Russia.

The EU is not primarily a military alliance organisation but they have their military policy and they should be stumping up to takeover from NATO in terms of EU members defence. They don't as they know their isn't support for it as it will cost member states more. Many member states are a part of NATO and are able to slack off on military spending as a result while the build their economies up. Until NATO announces that it is winding down its operation in Europe they never will want to stump up what they should be fine defence. However, if the EU says to its members that one member has been attacked by an outside force the rest will come in as a result when called upon, they have little choice in the matter as it's what they signed up to in joining the EU.

Today the US rejected it's bases in Germany being used to fly Polish gets to Ukraine from. It fears being drawn into the conflict as a result that it could be seen by Russia as an offensive act. I think they are right not to risk it, it seems like another cunning attempt to me of hawks trying to find any excuse to get a war started and drag in NATO into the conflict. It is most unhelpful as they don't seem to realise that they are playing with fire and it could go horribly wrong with us all ending up in WWIII/Nuclear, Chemical or Hyperthermal war. I really wish they wouldn't be so pushy with trying to drag us into this situation it is really not our fight.