The Struggle For Ukraine

[Boethius]

Interesting article on neofascism in Russia.

http://theconversation.com/putins-fascists-the-russian-states-long-history-of-cultivating-homegrown-neo-nazis-178535

[Chelseaboy]

MSNBC Analyst Malcolm Nance now fighting in Ukraine.


He has friends  out there and he says he can't just stand by while they die,so he decided to stop  talking and go and fight for Ukraine.


There are 20,000 foreigners now fighting for Ukraine ...men and women.

[Patagonie]

Do you know if the conscription started to bring fresh regular troops to the Ukrainian troops?You talked about 3 brigades. Do you know more?

[Patagonie]

I think that foreign weapons, especially the 155mm artillery is crucial for the starting Russian offensive in the Donbass. 
I suppose that the counter-battery fight is essential for the next weeks and hope that Ukrainians could be equipped with very long 
range munitions or missiles to strike the Russian artillery. 
For me, that's the main problem they will face.  It also threats any SAM systems to destruction and lowers the Ukrainian SAM coverage potentially. Look TU22M has shown in Mariupol, so the SAM coverage is crucial.   
 
Due to the losses, the Russian Federation has 40000 soldiers out of action (KIA or wounded or captured), between 700 and 1000 tanks (destroyed, abandoned or captured) they don't have a lot of tanks to deploy but they need them. They can deploy a maximum of 500 operational tanks but this number is probably shrinking even if some reinforcements could be expected from the operational reserve. 
Therefore I worry more about Russian artillery in open space in non-prepared position than anything else. 

[Chelseaboy]

Do you know if the conscription started to bring fresh regular troops to the Ukrainian troops?You talked about 3 brigades. Do you know more?

All i know is that Ukraine has 44,000 Troops in the Donbas region...and they've been preparing eight years for this.


I'm not sure how battle-hardened the Russian Orcs that have been arriving in Donbas are..we'll see.

[ML]

Wife's close relative joined Ukraine Volunteer Military the week that Russia first attacked. He went through a ROTC like program in his undergraduate studies, so was signed in as an officer.

He was in professional medical field, so assigned to a medical unit in Kyiv.

Just now he was moved into Regular Ukraine Military.

Some of his  group moving to Donbas, but so far he remains assigned to Kyiv.

[ML]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade

[ML]

America and its allies shouldn’t retaliate in kind, with nuclear weapons. The U.S. should, however, be prepared to take other serious actions quickly. Among the options:

• Clear the Russian navy’s two remaining Slava-class cruisers, their escort ships and submarines from the Mediterranean. This could be accomplished by a diplomatic démarche followed by more-forceful action if necessary to enforce compliance.

• Eliminate Russian air and military assets in Syria and Libya on the same basis. The U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have the ability to do so fully within hours if Russia refuses to withdraw its forces to its homeland.

• Entirely dismantle all pipelines used to transport Russian oil and gas to the West, quashing even the hope of future sales to Europe. Military assets could assist civilian engineering companies to accomplish this task with dispatch.

• Advise all non-Western nations, including China, that purchasing Russian oil would result in massive punitive tariffs by the U.S., Japan and the European Union that would effectively decouple their economies from the industrial world.

• End Russian dreams of earning hard currency by servicing Iran’s nuclear industry. The idea that the West would stand by while Iran develops its own tactical nuclear capacity should be dismissed. The U.S., Israel and their Arab allies would be positioned to give the ayatollahs a short window to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program under an intrusive inspection regime. If the ayatollahs decline, as they likely would, the key elements of Iran’s nuclear program could be dismantled by the full air power of the regional alliance arrayed against them.

These are only some of the steps that could be taken if Mr. Putin employs nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The urgent priority is to communicate them to the Kremlin now. The same strong and well-messaged deterrence that kept the free world safe from nuclear attack during the long years of the Cold War must be restored to avert a nuclear tragedy in Ukraine. If it isn’t, the risk of Russian miscalculation will rise—as will the even greater risk of nuclear escalation beyond Ukraine.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-deter-nuclear-war-in-ukraine-russia-detonate-pipelines-syria-assets-mediterranean-11650383693?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s

[rwd123]

They're hopeless though. The Foreign Secretary made statements leading to the Russian putting their nukes on high alert, the Defence Minister leaked state secrets to prank callers, the Prime Minister is a buffoon, they can't keep supplying arms as they're running out. Rule, Britannia!

LOL! Well sometimes the tabloids get it right.

[krimster2]

It doesn’t make ANY sense for Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, against what targets for example?   Cities and land they intend to occupy after?

However, it does make sense for them to use chemical weapons, and if they haven’t been used already, then I expect at some point they will be used in “limited controlled” circumstances

the West’s strategy has been to use a “minimax” strategy, which is minimizing the possible loss for a worst case (maximum loss) scenario

Russia has minimal counter-response to Western sanctions and weapons deliveries, we can always offset whatever western property seizures Russia does against the HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of frozen state and oligarch accounts, and since we’ve withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan,  we have no exposure there, unlike before (Russian bounties to Taliban)

it will take Europe up to 10 years to replace Russian gas, but the process HAS ALREADY started, this weakens Russia in the long term, so just let the process continue over time to minimize Europe’s effects of losing Russia’s gas, as opposed to a catastrophic economic crisis to doing it ALL now

our strategy is WINNING, for every dollar we spend on weapons Russia loses at least 10 as a result
and in the long term they will lose the lucrative European oil and gas market as well
meanwhile the Russian state and oligarchs are bleeding money into OUR pockets

even Ukrainian losses work in our favor, by increasing public support for our policies, minus of course Fox News’s Pro-Russian propaganda

so as much as I hate to say it, just for the consideration of USA’s interests, I wouldn’t change very much in our current policy, because it’s WINNING in the sense that we’re hurting Russia FAR MORE than they’re hurting us

and THIS is how you win a fight



"LOL! Well sometimes the tabloids get it right."
they should stick to Elvis sightings and aliens

BTW, Russian nuclear forces were NEVER on hightened alert
and also maintaining nuclear weapons is VERY expensive
what are the odds that Russia's thousands of nuclear weapons WERE properly maintained vrs the odds that someone just took the money and SAID they were maintained
just like the conventional Russian military whose logistics failed so miserably in Ukraine
probably another reason Russia WON'T be using nuclear weapons in Ukraine

[rwd123]

The Russians have been bombing food distribution centres, supermarkets, and food silos. History repeating itself, with Moscow deciding Ukrainians, living in the breadbasket of Europe, should starve.

rwd, where’s the mirrored Ukrainian action?

Ukraine is incapable. The collective West have mirrored such action. I spoke with someone involved with the global food trade on the weekend and their words were "Russians will starve". I was surprised but clearly things will be bad (and will be so across the world).

You seem to conflate your blind hatred with my pragmatism. Noam Chomsky basically echoes my own views (see the start of this interview):

As he says there are two ways to end such conflicts: negotiated peace or destruction. Ukraine will be destroyed if there is no mediated settlement. I would like to see a prompt cessation of hostilities, which means the Ukrainian frontmen for Washington will need to cede to Russian demands. But that's not going to happen because the US won't allow it, so an expeditious defeat of the Ukrainian military will save countless lives. A protracted campaign will cause more misery and death. The Russian government will simply starve Ukraine into submission.

In other news:
- The price of oil is about to go through the roof
- It is believe 400 NATO personnel are in the Azovstal metal plant, some have speculated large contingent of French troops, others have claimed a mix of US/Romanian/Canadian troops
- From memory Kherson region is now connected to the Russian cell network; controlled areas are now using Rubles for commerce
- Allegedly the Rozivka Raion has voted unanimously in a town meeting to leave Ukraine and join DNR (in Zaporizhzhia Oblast)

[rwd123]

It doesn’t make ANY sense for Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, against what targets for example?   Cities and land they intend to occupy after?

Lviv could become the largest crater on Earth. There are plenty of places in western Ukraine that Russia has no interest to occupy.

Power of Siberia has been operational for a number of years. With the further construction energy supplies will be directed east. Arctic sea lanes are being used more and more. India will continue to buy both hydrocarbons and weapon systems from Russia. Europe is toast! It is a financial basket case and with the collapse of German industry it will return to medieval times. Apparently France is headed for civil war (again). I wouldn't want to be living in Europe without a Plan B.

Hey Pat - I've heard that Russia wants to control everything east of Zhytomyr so it is possible they will launch a campaign to cut off most of the country. If it takes Odessa then it will cripple Ukraine's economy.

[krimster2]

"Lviv could become the largest crater on Earth."

even if Russia could find a WORKING nuclear bomb, and use it to attack Lviv
Russia would still LOSE the war...
because if you're ALREADY BADLY LOSING at poker, then raising the stakes is a REALLY BAD PLAYING strategy when the other players in the game are WAY BETTER than you

for someone who declares themselves to be pro-peace, you seem to be happy at the prospect of sacrificing Ukrainian lives
why do you love Pootin so much, is it because he and Trump are friends and you're a Trump voter
do you also root for Hitler in WWII movies? he DID make the trains run on time, afterall...

PS, Tucker Carlson on Fox New is recommending testicle tanning, ya might want to give it a try to enhance your manliness instead of Dick Tater worshipping and fantasizing about them

"LOL! Well sometimes the tabloids get it right."

you think Elvis is REALLY alive and housewives in middle-America are having alien babies as well?
totally see why ya voted for Trump

I can see that you have ALREADY made the journey into a wondrous land of imagination.
That's the signpost up ahead—your next stop, the Twilight Zone!
(key Twilight Zone theme music)
 

[Patagonie]

Lviv could become the largest crater on Earth. There are plenty of places in western Ukraine that Russia has no interest to occupy.

Power of Siberia has been operational for a number of years. With the further construction energy supplies will be directed east. Arctic sea lanes are being used more and more. India will continue to buy both hydrocarbons and weapon systems from Russia. Europe is toast! It is a financial basket case and with the collapse of German industry it will return to medieval times. Apparently France is headed for civil war (again). I wouldn't want to be living in Europe without a Plan B.

Hey Pat - I've heard that Russia wants to control everything east of Zhytomyr so it is possible they will launch a campaign to cut off most of the country. If it takes Odessa then it will cripple Ukraine's economy.

Hi Rwd. 
Zhytomyr, I hope that we speak about the same city. 
Because Zhytomyr is 130 km full West of Kiev. 
So controlling everything East of Zhytomyr on a North-South axis is seizing more than 60% of the total Ukraine. 
Reaching Zhytomir is only possible if you seize Nikolaev, you join Transinistria, cut off Odessa connections with the rest of the country (but it could be supplied by Roumania, this why taking Odessa is so strategical, if not it prevents seizing Transnistria basically). 
Good luck taking Odessa with 2000 km of gallery and now the dream to land in front of the city an amphibious assault has vanished with the long range missiles Neptun. 
 
So in my mind this story of Zhytomir makes any sense. May you tell more?

[krimster2]

"Power of Siberia has been operational for a number of years."

I left "Siber" a few months ago after I cancelled my "bizzness" plans there right before the Ukrainian war broke out
Siberia is the world's largest disaster zone

the permafrost is melting, this causes building foundations to sink and collapse, in some areas it looked like this was happening to some degree to almost all buildings
and it gets worse each year
each summer, Siberia has the biggest forest fires in human history (MUCH, MUCH bigger than the ones in USA)
tens of millions of acres burnt, my plane almost crashed because the pilot could't see to land because of all the smoke
swarms of mosquitos that are BEYOND comprehension also due to the melting permfrost
you HAVE to wear bee keeping protection there to go outside or you'll have a million bites, just CRAZY the sky filled with clouds of mosquitos
also more and more every year as well
THIS is Siberia

yeah, they got a lot of oil and gas, but NONE of that money goes to ther people who live there, because your typical Siberian village is just a collection of shacks with no running water or paved roads
I wonder WHO this profit goes to?

you think Europe is in bad shape?
try looking at your own country
almost daily mass shootings, remember the Trump years with riots followed by an insurrection, you remember any of this?
I DO!!!
as the Gospel of Thomas says,
"why reach for a speck of wood in your neighbor's eye, when there is a whole tree stuck in yours"

[Bee Farmer]

I thought this was a pretty good video talking about the economic factors affecting the war.  I don't agree with everything, but thought it had some good analysis.

[Bee Farmer]

After Fukushima, Germany decided to close a bunch of nuclear reactors.  The green folks wanted the electricity to replace the nuclear generated electric to be renewables.  Ultimately, the bulk of electric generation in Germany has been using gas generators fueled with Russian gas as their nuclear power plants have been shut down.

Instead of Germany trying to find ways of replacing Russian gas, why don't they just start turning their nuclear reactors back on until they can source gas from better partners?

[rwd123]

So in my mind this story of Zhytomir makes any sense. May you tell more?

Someone I know with Russian links shares news (before other sources). He stated in February or early March that Russia is not interested taking west of Zhytomyr.

I suspect if it can severely neuter the Ukrainian military in the east ("Phase 2")  then Russia would prefer to cut off all supply lines than storm major cities. I think they've lost hope of a diplomatic resolution, there's barely any dialogue between negotiators now.

In other news, Le Figaro reports that ISIS will stage attacks across Europe. Good thing all those arms are being sent to Ukraine... how many will end up on the black market?

[krimster2]

"I think they've lost hope of a diplomatic resolution,"

"lost hope", crikey mate, that sounds just like you trying to find a girlfriend in the FSU!

"how many will end up on the black market?"
after you account for how many were used to destroy literally thousands of Russian armored vehicals, I don't think there will be any Western arms  left over
but the market for Russian scrap metal in Ukraine will be huge, based on its abundant supply...

[Jumper1]

Workers pretend to work ,
Soviet pretends to pay

Supply trucks have more flats than tires

See that soviet flag hoisted over kherson?
That's was weird, I'm not sure the significance or statement it was making(since the russian flag had been up)

Weird times

Turkey deciding now to take care of the kurd issue
China looking at Taiwan and just made a deal with Solomon islands

Japan getting frisky about the kirills

Kazakhstan just over some serious internal.strife


Sweden and Finland hugging NATO

Germany sending arms to anyone during conflict

Africa having its normal.unrest

Any standing navy losing something the size of a cruiser.

Taliban telling Puti to chillax

2020 and 2021 said we are the worst recent badasses!
 2022 says hold my beer!

[Boethius]

Ukraine is incapable. The collective West have mirrored such action. I spoke with someone involved with the global food trade on the weekend and their words were "Russians will starve". I was surprised but clearly things will be bad (and will be so across the world).

You seem to conflate your blind hatred with my pragmatism. Noam Chomsky basically echoes my own views (see the start of this interview):

If Russians starve, so be it.  Invasions of neighbours have consequences, and Russia should have anticipated this in their war planning.  Nevertheless, I doubt they will starve.  They have enough land to grow food, and will grow the foods they have eaten for centuries.

Ukraine is incapable of what?

I harbour no hatred toward Russia.  I don't even hate the former Soviet nomenklatura, who proved they are the greedy pigs with no conscience I always assumed they were (65% of the current Russian political elite are from the Soviet nomenklatura, including virtually all its leadership).  Here are the demands from both sides:

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraine-russia-negotiations-whats-possible

Would your country accept a foreign power dictating its constitution, the size of its military, the volume and types of military imports?  Even control of all of southern Ukraine, its current position, is a non starter.  Would you accept giving up 1/3 of Australia if New Zealand invaded and controlled those regions?  Even if Australians living in those regions opposed it?  It is not only rewarding invasion, but it is betraying the locals, who by a majority, do not wish to be a part of Russia.  Therefore, I reject your assertion that you are approaching this with pragmatism.  It's not pragmatic for a country to reward an invader with prime real estate.

I posted early on that letting go of Crimea and the occupied territory, should those regions vote to join Russia, in free and fair, internationally monitored elections. 

As he says there are two ways to end such conflicts: negotiated peace or destruction. Ukraine will be destroyed if there is no mediated settlement. I would like to see a prompt cessation of hostilities, which means the Ukrainian frontmen for Washington will need to cede to Russian demands. But that's not going to happen because the US won't allow it, so an expeditious defeat of the Ukrainian military will save countless lives. A protracted campaign will cause more misery and death. The Russian government will simply starve Ukraine into submission.

You are assuming that Russia will win.  They may win in the short term.  But as I have posted, they have sown so much hatred in Ukraine, that they cannot control the country in the long term.  Look at what's occurred in seven years in the breakaway regions.  That is the future.

As for Putin, собака собаці смерть.

[Patagonie]

After Fukushima, Germany decided to close a bunch of nuclear reactors.  The green folks wanted the electricity to replace the nuclear generated electric to be renewables.  Ultimately, the bulk of electric generation in Germany has been using gas generators fueled with Russian gas as their nuclear power plants have been shut down.

Instead of Germany trying to find ways of replacing Russian gas, why don't they just start turning their nuclear reactors back on until they can source gas from better partners?

And coil !!!Very green!They bite their hands to have stopped nuclear plants now.

[Boethius]

"Power of Siberia has been operational for a number of years."

I left "Siber" a few months ago after I cancelled my "bizzness" plans there right before the Ukrainian war broke out
Siberia is the world's largest disaster zone

the permafrost is melting, this causes building foundations to sink and collapse, in some areas it looked like this was happening to some degree to almost all buildings
and it gets worse each year
each summer, Siberia has the biggest forest fires in human history (MUCH, MUCH bigger than the ones in USA)
tens of millions of acres burnt, my plane almost crashed because the pilot could't see to land because of all the smoke
swarms of mosquitos that are BEYOND comprehension also due to the melting permfrost
you HAVE to wear bee keeping protection there to go outside or you'll have a million bites, just CRAZY the sky filled with clouds of mosquitos
also more and more every year as well
THIS is Siberia

yeah, they got a lot of oil and gas, but NONE of that money goes to ther people who live there, because your typical Siberian village is just a collection of shacks with no running water or paved roads
I wonder WHO this profit goes to?

you think Europe is in bad shape?
try looking at your own country
almost daily mass shootings, remember the Trump years with riots followed by an insurrection, you remember any of this?
I DO!!!
as the Gospel of Thomas says,
"why reach for a speck of wood in your neighbor's eye, when there is a whole tree stuck in yours"

Siberia is a huge region, covering 3/4 of Russia,  and it's not all permafrost.  But the regions that are, indeed cannot really cope with global warming.  The same thing is happening in Canada's north.  Same mosquitos, too.  However, Deep Woods Off works.

[krimster2]

Regarding Europe’s energy policy
Always “follow the money”

for a list of North Stream “Partners”  see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream

Here in the great state of Texas, the oil and gas industry controls the state’s dominant political party by showering it with political “donations”
here is just one example:

http://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/04/texas-energy-industry-donations-legislature/

it’s quid-pro-quo, politicians get the money, and in return, enact laws that favor the industry over all other interests

it’s not a bug, but a feature of capitalism
privatize the gains, and shove the costs onto someone else “lower down”

as Lenin said, “capitalists will hang themselves, and we’ll sell them the rope”

speaking of "capitalists hanging themselves"
word's come down through the grapevine of two Gazprom executives who recently “committed suicide”

Vladislav Avayev, along with his wife and daughter
and
Alexander Tyulakov

this is why my daughters and I are "babysitting" two young Russian men, so they don't "commit suicide"
eventually, they will show up here in the USA once I get their visas

[ML]

as Lenin said, “capitalists will hang themselves, and we’ll sell them the rope”

You better check a bit further on this.