NATO now preparing for war against Russia.

[Chelseaboy]

NATO is preparing for a possible conflict with the Russian Federation and for the first time since the "cold war " is developing a specific defence plan.


Source :Reuters


Hopefully they're developing an attack plan too.It's about time they became proactive rather than reactive all the time...let the Russians worry about what we're going to do to them.

[krimster2]

this is called "raising the ante" in posturing poker
in anticipation of l'il mini Putin's future response to Zelensky's forthcoming Crimean play
to try and get l'il mini putin to hedge his future bets

this is all classic "game theory" stuff
regarding how to influence your opponent's playing strategy

l'il mini Putin is busy now making a Trojan Horse
whose purpose is to bring down the gates of Troy

everything he does now, is to gain time for the carpenters
beware of Russians bearing gifts

starry bobka in the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour, are all walking in counter-clockwise circles, looks so innocent...
but they know...

[Chelseaboy]

Head of the Duma Defence Committee Andrei Kartapolov said on Russian tv that Wagner was sent to Belarus to take the Suwalki Gap.


Doing that will connect Kaliningrad and Belarus while cutting Latvia,Lithuania and Estonia off from the rest of the NATO countries.


NATO's response to this will be interesting 

[krimster2]

a war with NATO would be catastrophic to the russians
they could try attacking china as a distraction first LOL

nothin like that is gonna happen
the Czech president just explained 'wussup when he said, "ukraine has no choice but to do the offensive this year, BEFORE THE ELECTIONS"
what goes into the elections, and it's outcome is what's gonna determine the outcome of the war
the offensive is what ukraine will use to increase it's leverage over crimea by blockading it
and by threatening crimea and destroying almost all of russia's heavy weapons, is a pretty good negotiation position

[Trenchcoat]

Head of the Duma Defence Committee Andrei Kartapolov said on Russian tv that Wagner was sent to Belarus to take the Suwalki Gap.


Doing that will connect Kaliningrad and Belarus while cutting Latvia,Lithuania and Estonia off from the rest of the NATO countries.


NATO's response to this will be interesting 

I doubt it, why release a state military secret to the world if so? If anything a possible intentional misdirection.

I would say Wagner being in Belarus is down to as in this article as I put on the other thread:

http://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/07/14/russia-armed-belarus-to-the-teeth-s-400s-tor-m2s-su-35s-mi-35s/

The writing is already on the wall. Belarus is gearing up to attack Ukraine. I think they would have done it soon after Russia's invasion started to falter but their military was likely in such bad shape it seems that it was probably decided it wouldn't add much if they used it as it was and risk destabilising Belarus to insurgents. That and Belarus had no nukes so once their army was spent they could be open to invasion from say Poland or even Ukraine with the reverse excuse Russia had used on Ukraine that Belarus was not part of Russia so no reason for them to intervene.

Russia has likely noticed by now that the big clanger they made was not to attack down towards Lviv at the start of the invasion link up with transnistra and thereby cutting off Ukraine at the border from any weapons supply. They are no doubt kicking themselves for this as at the time there was likely little opposition forces guarding that stretch. As we saw the border post to Kyiv was unmanned so that area mostly open countryside would have been likely very easy to roll through and station forces.

My guess is that they realised that once they missed their chances there they would have to wait for another chance once Belarus has its forces modernized and then trained up by Wagner. It's perfect for Russia as the best way to avoid looking like you're going to attack there is to not have forces there. It looks like the forces they had there they've moved over towards Donetsk to suck in Ukrainian forces in its Counter-offensive. Ukraine might even weaken it's forces in the north or get bled dry hammering itself out trying to retake it's eastern territory. Apparently one source reckons it's lost about 20 percent of it's armaments (perhaps 20 percent of troops also then?) In its Counter-offensive so far.

So you see Ukraine could in the near future be entering a perilous faze. The bulk of Ukrainian troops sucked in to being committed to fighting in the East of Ukraine while Belarus & Wagner comes crashing down from the North. That is likely to prove to be too much for Ukraine and it could start to buckle badly from it all. My guess is that it is likely to be about a year away, next year. That will give Belarus time to get it's forces up to scratch and time for Ukraine to get distracted fully in the East of Ukraine getting so involved there that they see it as they can't afford to focus on the northern border too much and they become trusting that all will be ok enough there.

Russia messed up badly at the start of this war but I think there is a real risk of underestimating them. They can see the West's moves, the West has made it clear along with Ukraine's moves to a Counter-offensive. So that gives Russia an advantage that they have been told how the West & Ukraine are playing it (by supplying weapons & Counter-offensive) so Russia now knowing this can plan around it and sucker Ukraine in. Whether Ben Wallace's departure is because he can see what's on the horizon and doesn't wish to be there to have to deal with it who knows, quite possibly I think.

[Chelseaboy]

Just been watching the BBC News,and the USA are saying it's the Belarusian border with Lithuania they're more concerned about ( that'll be the Suwalki gap then ),regarding Wagner.


They're saying the Ukrainian border with Belarus has been very heavily fortified.


NATO and Ukraine aren't stupid,they'll have been aware of the risk of an attack from Belarus cutting off military supplies to Ukraine...and there's been sixteen months for Ukraine to prepare for such an eventuality.


The Belarusian army is only 62,000 strong,a call-up among his people will not go down well with his regime already under pressure from many dissidents,so i doubt Lukashenko will be too keen on having his unmotivated small army destroyed at Ukrainian fortifications....HIMARS and precision artillery,which far outranges anything Wagner and the Belarusians have, smashing into them.....which will leave him at huge risk of being lynched by his people.

[Trenchcoat]

Just been watching the BBC News,and the USA are saying it's the Belarusian border with Lithuania they're more concerned about ( that'll be the Suwalki gap then ),regarding Wagner.


They're saying the Ukrainian border with Belarus has been very heavily fortified.


NATO and Ukraine aren't stupid,they'll have been aware of the risk of an attack from Belarus cutting off military supplies to Ukraine...and there's been sixteen months for Ukraine to prepare for such an eventuality.


The Belarusian army is only 62,000 strong,a call-up among his people will not go down well with his regime already under pressure from many dissidents,so i doubt Lukashenko will be too keen on having his unmotivated small army destroyed at Ukrainian fortifications....HIMARS and precision artillery,which far outranges anything Wagner and the Belarusians have, smashing into them.....which will leave him at huge risk of being lynched by his people.

Russia would of course been better off moving across that part of the border in its early days of invasion but they chose the silly course if trying to capture Kyiv which even had they done so the Capital would have just been moved somewhere else in Ukraine for the duration. That boat has now sailed and the Kremlin know that so next best thing is to try later. Sure the border has now been heavily fortified there but it's something Belarus & Wagner are just going to have to contend with. They can get going and work on it over time and have the safety of Belarus to retreat back into if not all goes well. Like Russia, Ukraine is unlikely to want to attack Belarus due to nuclear weapons issues etc.

63,000 may not sound a lot but Ukraine was only fielding around 150,000 ish troops at the start I believe if that. They might have more troops now so difficult to tell but odds are even 63,000 troops are going to be extra weight to contend with. Then they are likely to recruit more leading up to such an invasion then there are Wagner who in addition to any forces stationed in Belarus are likely to do the prison recruitment again and throw Russian prisoners against Ukrainian defences and mine fields high on drugs.

I've no doubt Ukraine & NATO have prepared for it but often there is only so much you can do.

[Trenchcoat]

Looks like at the moment Russia is trying to retake Kupiansk and force Ukraine to draw forces away from its Counter-offensive:

http://www.politico.eu/article/russia-troops-kharkiv-kyiv-ukraine-war-kupiansk/

Looks like Russis has amassed quite an army, 100,000 strong there, 900 tanks and 550 artillery pieces. Makes you wonder where they got it all from. Going to be quite a force for Ukrainians to overcome defending themselves against it I reckon.

[Chelseaboy]

The Polish Senate expects that the Wagner criminal group,which is accumulating forces on the territory of Belarus,will launch a terrorist operation in the Suwalski corridor,uniting Poland and Lithuania.


This was stated by Vice-Marshal of the Polish Senate Michal Kaminsky on the air of a telethon.


"I cannot exclude,and no-one in Poland excludes this,that in order to test the solidarity of NATO with Poland and the east of Europe,they may try to enter Poland.Most likely this will be a terrorist operation of the Wagner group,rather than a full scale invasion as in Ukraine " he said.

[krimster2]

russians keep yellin to the West, "the sky is fallin, the sky is fallin"
ya'll start smiling, then one day, the sky actually falls
Ukraine will use the war to influence Russia's election
and Russia will use the war, to influence America's

once you realize what the goals are that determines winning, then the methods and players of the game, become easy to ascertain
quo bono
who benefits

it makes it unlikely the status quo will continue after next year
when there is no longer anything external, that is more important than ending the economic consequences of the war for everyone

putin "getting something" will no longer matter
18 months from now, post elections, this will be a classic  "prisoner's dilemma" game

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/prisoners-dilemma.asp

the next few months will determine how much leverage Ukraine has before Putin's election
just like how much leverage Putin will have in America's presidential election
Trump-Putin-Biden-Zelensky

ya'll don't see how this is gonna play out?
seriously?

[Trenchcoat]

russians keep yellin to the West, "the sky is fallin, the sky is fallin"
ya'll start smiling, then one day, the sky actually falls
Ukraine will use the war to influence Russia's election
and Russia will use the war, to influence America's

once you realize what the goals are that determines winning, then the methods and players of the game, become easy to ascertain
quo bono
who benefits

it makes it unlikely the status quo will continue after next year
when there is no longer anything external, that is more important than ending the economic consequences of the war for everyone

putin "getting something" will no longer matter
18 months from now, post elections, this will be a classic  "prisoner's dilemma" game

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/prisoners-dilemma.asp

the next few months will determine how much leverage Ukraine has before Putin's election
just like how much leverage Putin will have in America's presidential election
Trump-Putin-Biden-Zelensky

ya'll don't see how this is gonna play out?
seriously?

Wouldn't our beloved Putler just stuff the ballot boxes as he always does for next year's Presidential Election?

I don't see Putler stepping down even with bad health. My view is that others would move to remove him, whether that is through the Presidential Election or another way who knows.

Trump I get it, if he gets in he will say the Ukraine war is costing the USA too much so making the US economically weak (not great). He'll say it's none of American's business and pull any further funding and armaments. That will just leave mostly the UK/EU funding Ukraine and sending it's armaments from their stockpiles. That puts the UK/EU under a lot more strain and it's questionable how long they can keep it up and/or supply enough to avoid Ukraine being too constrained in its ability to defend itself.

Possibly Biden may give Ukraine a massive amount of ammo, etc up front before the next Presidential Election, sign it over to them and Ukraine keeps it stockpiled in warehouses in Eastern EU member states. That way Ukraine could hold out a bit longer and hope its enough.

I'm still not sure there is any guarantee that Trump will win though.

[Chelseaboy]

The Polish MOD reported that Belarusian helicopters crossed the airspace of the country.


NATO has been informed of the incident.


The border crossing took place near Belovezha.


Poland is now sending more soldiers and combat helicopters to the border...as stated by the Polish MOD.


As i predicted  a couple of days ago.

[krimster2]

"As i predicted  a couple of days ago."

I predicted you were gonna say that
but NOBODY predicted that I was gonna predict, that you were gonna predict that...
nobody...

[Chelseaboy]

Photo's of the Belarusian helicopters over Polish/NATO territory.

[Chelseaboy]

[Chelseaboy]

[Chelseaboy]

[Chelseaboy]

[Chelseaboy]

More than 3 km into Poland from the nearest border,according to google maps.