More Bad News for Russia

[fathertime]

The largest issue confronting the world right now is ISIS.  To that end, I think there is room for negotiation with Russia to accomplish the demise of such a radical group.  If not, then there will be a much more flagrant and destructive force to deal with than Russia.

I don't know about ISIS being the biggest problem in the world....but yes negotiation with Russia is necessary. 


Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

The country producing the greatest number of refugees right now is Syria.  Most of them are fleeing ISIS.  There are photos on news sites of thousands attempting to cross barbed wire fences into Turkey, only to be turned back, at gunpoint, by ISIS.  So yes, I think they are the cause of a great deal of instability.

[Brasscasing]

I believe the Foreign Ministers will adopt/ratify this sanctions extension with as little fuss as the ambassador's decision to agree to it.

EU Extends Economic Sanctions on Russia Until End of January

..."LUXEMBOURG—European Union foreign ministers extended broad economic sanctions on Russia until the end of January 2016, a move designed to give the bloc time to gauge if the Kremlin will fully implement its side of February’s Minsk cease-fire and peace plan by year-end.

The EU decision came without a debate among ministers, underlining that despite months of public questioning of sanctions by the likes of Greece and Hungary, the bloc remained united in opposing Russian pressure on Ukraine."...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-extends-economic-sanctions-on-russia-until-end-of-january-1434960823

Let's see if Russia is so eager to assist Greece with a financial bailout now or will there be 'consultation' for the next six months.

What the EU/NATO/western countries need to understand is this can't be the extent of their actions for the next six months. Sanctions can't be the entire game plan. What has to happen is a multi pronged strategy involving NATO military policy and exponentially increasing financial/economic pressure.

Russia's expulsion from SWIFT and losing the FIFA World Cup would be a good start.

Brass

[southernX]

This in a nutshell is why this arrogant little man will lose his quest for empire...

Putin says Harper will change his mind on Russia in G8 if U.S. tells him to

..."Russia appears to be angling to make it the G-8 once again and President Vladimir Putin suggests it's something Prime Minister Stephen Harper will just have to accept.

"I don't want to offend anyone, but if the United States says Russia should be returned to the G8, the prime minister will change his opinion," Putin told The Canadian Press during a meeting with the heads of world news agencies at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Russian officials dropped hints all day Friday that a deal might be the works for Putin to attend the next summit after missing two consecutive meetings.

Following the last gathering of leaders in Germany at the beginning of June, Harper made it clear he didn't want Putin back at the table because he doesn't share the values of the group."...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-says-harper-will-change-his-mind-on-russia-in-g8-if-u-s-tells-him-to-1.3121253

Does he not understand that Canada's relationship with America is not the same as Russia's employing it's strong arm intimidation tactics with neighboring countries?

The criminal despot must actually believe that the rest of the world operates along the same lines as Putinland and that the POTUS can simply tell the PM to let him back in the group....Or what? Obama will invade southern Saskatchewan with little green men? Point missiles at us? Threaten 'consequences' if he don't cooperate?

Does Putin actually think that Obama would just "tell" the neighboring head of state for the US' closest ally, defense partner and largest trading partner to 'change his mind' so he can attend a G7 meeting?

What a maroon. The guy's getting more unstable by the day. Sooner or later this rabid, barking Russian Chihuahua is going to have to be put down.

Brass

brass,

my feeling on this from v putin is that he is trying to sow discontent between the US and CANADA , given his background and his love of manipulating facts /personalities , he possibly thinks this may be agood strategy to drive awedge between  G7 members

SX

[Brasscasing]

brass,

my feeling on this from v putin is that he is trying to sow discontent between the US and CANADA , given his background and his love of manipulating facts /personalities , he possibly thinks this may be agood strategy to drive awedge between  G7 members

SX

It's as good an explanation as any, SX.   

I think it's just part and parcel of his lack of understanding of world reality.

I've always maintained Putin isn't very intelligent. His strength lies in the fact he's devious and an opportunist. What he's been getting away with on the world stage in these last few years isn't due to his leadership skills but to lack of same in the west.

As an aside, I've also noted that the Russian trolls/propagandists have been quietly exiting stage left recently. Not just from the forums but there is less activity in other information/news venues as well.

Maybe the Russian troll factory has stopped paying?

Or it's also possible that credibility (lack of) is a factor.  An example of a loss of credibility would be the despicable, corrupt internet personality I've nicknamed Lord Haw-Haw from elsewhere. His internet trolling and predictions have been without exception - wrong. You simply can't expect to function effectively or be taken seriously as a disinformation agent if the predictions/arguments/assertions you make are continually incorrect.

My belief is that the US/NATO has been quietly disseminating intelligence and/or imaging to the EU nations confirming that the Russians are:

a. Inside Ukraine;

b. Responsible for downing MH17; and

c. No where near as powerful with conventional or strategic forces as the Russian propaganda machine would have them believe.

There has been a distinct shift in the EU's attitude towards Russia/Putin in the last few months. I think that they're slowly coming to the realization that the 'Emperor has no clothes.'

They've lost their respect/fear of Putin. Now all that needs to happen is to get this current flock of benign western leaders to act on it.

Brass

[Boethius]

I'm not certain there was ever a fear of Putin.  I think that is Putin would like, but who, in the West, can really fear Russia?  It's laughable.

I think a lot of EU countries want to continue trading with Russia and seeing their banking sector profit from the Russian oligarchs who don't keep their assets in Russia.  In particular, that is Germany and the U.K.  France has a very different attitude toward Russians.

In the past few days, EU representatives in Brussels allegedly have been pushing Ukrainian politicians to accept Putin's call for Ukraine's constitution to be amended to give Donbas a de facto veto.  It would be idiotic to accede to this, and effectively would give Moscow a veto over Ukraine's internal politics.  So, I am not certain the EU, or at least not all of it, sees through Putin. 

[Brasscasing]

I'm not certain there was ever a fear of Putin.  I think that is Putin would like, but who can really fear Russia?  It's laughable.

I think a lot of EU countries want to continue trading with Russia and seeing their banking sector profit from the Russian oligarchs who don't keep their assets in Russia.  In particular, that is Germany and the U.K.  France has a very different attitude toward Russians.

In the past few days, EU representatives in Brussels allegedly have been pushing Ukrainian politicians to accept Putin's call for Ukraine's constitution to be amended to give Donbas a de facto veto.  It would be idiotic to accede to this, and would effectively give Moscow a veto over Ukraine's internal politics.  So, I am not certain the EU, or at least not all of it, sees through Putin.

I believe the US/NATO inadvertently fermented what I term as fear, timidity, hesitation, belief (however you word it) the Russian invasion of the Baltics/further incursion into Ukraine or other neighboring countries without retaliation could happen by first turning a blind eye to Russia's aggression, then minimizing Russia's criminal action and finally negotiating with Russia to end said action. None of which has worked. Sanctions have been effective there's no denying it but sanctions will not remove Russian boots from Ukraine or Georgia. A more intense multi pronged strategy involving NATO and The Hague might but not sanctions alone.

The sanctions (both ways) have to some degree shown Europe/the world that it can get along without the Russian economy or at least work around it. Initially the big concern was gas, this seems to have dissipated over time.

The Russians fostered the idea that Europe was still dealing with a USSR economic/military juggernaut like entity. Not true. As time goes on Russia is being slowly minimized on the world economic stage. The Oligarch's will eventually have to fish (do business) in European waters by the EU's rules or cut bait.

Agreed, to sign such a document would not be in the best interests of Ukraine. Whichever EU countries are counseling this (first I've read of it) should be ignored or even censured for suggesting such an action.

Brass

[Muzh]

I believe the US/NATO inadvertently fermented what I term as fear, timidity, hesitation, belief (however you word it) the Russian invasion of the Baltics/further incursion into Ukraine or other neighboring countries without retaliation could happen by first turning a blind eye to Russia's aggression, then minimizing Russia's criminal action and finally negotiating with Russia to end said action. None of which has worked. Sanctions have been effective there's no denying it but sanctions will not remove Russian boots from Ukraine or Georgia. A more intense multi pronged strategy involving NATO and The Hague might but not sanctions alone.

The sanctions (both ways) have to some degree shown Europe/the world that it can get along without the Russian economy or at least work around it. Initially the big concern was gas, this seems to have dissipated over time.

The Russians fostered the idea that Europe was still dealing with a USSR economic/military juggernaut like entity. Not true. As time goes on Russia is being slowly minimized on the world economic stage. The Oligarch's will eventually have to fish (do business) in European waters by the EU's rules or cut bait.

Agreed, to sign such a document would not be in the best interests of Ukraine. Whichever EU countries are counseling this (first I've read of it) should be ignored or even censured for suggesting such an action.

Brass

I'm not so sure of that Brass.


I think that the past and prevailing nonchalant EU attitude towards Russia has been the dictating factor of the US/NATO response to Russia. We all agree it is an European issue and the the big boys in the EU could care less what happens to the former Warsaw Pact nations. They may be even happy if it all would go back to the USSR v2.0

The Cold War is over. Moscow is an unpleasant regional actor, not a global threat. Europe has a much larger GDP and population than Russia and even with its current anemic level of military outlays devotes more to defense. The U.S. government is essentially bankrupt, with far greater unfunded liabilities than the Europeans, despite Greece’s travails.


Instead of pouring more resources into NATO, Washington should be disengaging militarily, turning leadership of the alliance and responsibility for defending the continent over to Europe. Americans shouldn’t be expected to protect their rich cousins even if the latter were devoted to protecting each other. That the Europeans expect the U.S. to do their job is yet another reason for Americans to say no more.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2015/06/24/washington-confronts-russia-over-ukraine-yet-europeans-wont-protect-themselves-from-vladimir-putin/

[BdHvA]

I believe the US/NATO inadvertently fermented what I term as fear, timidity, hesitation, belief (however you word it) the Russian invasion of the Baltics/further incursion into Ukraine or other neighboring countries without retaliation could happen by first turning a blind eye to Russia's aggression, then minimizing Russia's criminal action and finally negotiating with Russia to end said action. None of which has worked. Sanctions have been effective there's no denying it but sanctions will not remove Russian boots from Ukraine or Georgia. A more intense multi pronged strategy involving NATO and The Hague might but not sanctions alone.

The sanctions (both ways) have to some degree shown Europe/the world that it can get along without the Russian economy or at least work around it. Initially the big concern was gas, this seems to have dissipated over time.

The Russians fostered the idea that Europe was still dealing with a USSR economic/military juggernaut like entity. Not true. As time goes on Russia is being slowly minimized on the world economic stage. The Oligarch's will eventually have to fish (do business) in European waters by the EU's rules or cut bait.

Agreed, to sign such a document would not be in the best interests of Ukraine. Whichever EU countries are counseling this (first I've read of it) should be ignored or even censured for suggesting such an action.

Brass

In a large degree I agree with the above statements, I think though The United States reached out to Russia and because of a multiple of reasons this effort failed back in the Yeltsin and early Putin years. The US won the cold war and we there was an effort (half hearted) to bring Russia into a more international mind set.

But the Russian folk are strong and can adapt, but they are as bad as American's at foreign stuff. They trust there "leaders" way too much.

[Photo Guy]

The Kremlin/Putin has recently threatened Sweden, now that Sweden is cooperating with NATO and with joint military maneuvers.

The obvious question for Russians- Why is Sweden afraid of Russia? Why does Russia
want Sweden to be afraid of them? It's another example of Russia hurting itself. Russia's policies look like crude emotional responses, rather than thoughtful strategies...

about Sweden:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sweden-boosting-military-russias-ominous-195003584.html

[JayH]

The corrupt bargain on which Russian President Vladimir Putin built his regime—provision of wealth to loyal officials and a decent standard of living to the people—is in dire straits.

As the economy shrinks and the Kremlin adjusts its expenditures, Putin must be aware that the threat of a coalition of disgruntled officials and powerbrokers—aiming to restore their prosperity—grows daily.

With no intention of being deposed in a palace coup, Putin has gone on the offensive, striking the Russian political elite off-balance through mass dismissals and early elections. This threatens to disrupt established patronage networks and political stability across Russia.


Putin Meets Economic Collapse With Purges, Broken Promises

Putin failed to curb corruption or reform the economy for 15 years. He won't do so now that he is on emergency footing, and average citizens will suffer as a consequence.

As their situation deteriorates, Russians will not tolerate Putin's fruitless and autocratic tendencies. The coming chaos among the elite—and hardship for ordinary people—will destabilize Russia in the long term.

Economic Crisis

The collapsing ruble, Western sanctions, Putin's own ill-designed "countersanctions" and increasing nationalist fervor have prompted dramatic capital flight. By some estimates, capital flight in April was around twice that month's 1.6 percent drop GDP.

On June 15, the Russian statistics agency Rosstat reevaluated its estimate of GDP shrinkage from 1.9 percent to 2.2 percent. On June 11, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev stated that government income had fallen while expenses actually rose by 3.7 percent.

OPEC's flooding of the oil market ensures that Russian crude production will increase to maintain revenue, swamping the market and depressing prices. Putin's December 2014 budget was based on oil at $100 per barrel. The projected 2015 Brent crude price is $61 per barrel.

In response to these shocks, Moscow slashed investment projects by a third, including development of the Far East, Kaliningrad and the North Caucasus. Many Federal Target Programs and Federal Targeted Investment Programs will undergo severe cuts and may be seriously underfunded. Should the crisis persist through 2017, the Kremlin could deepen the investment cuts by 42 percent.

Preemptive Offensive

Recognizing the danger that these cuts may breed dissatisfaction within the government, Putin launched a preemptive offensive. He kicked off his campaign in April by tearing through the security chieftains, the siloviki.

On April 6, he gutted the Ministry of Emergency Situations, firing 19 officials from leadership positions across the country without appointing successors. He moved on the powerful Ministry of Internal Affairs, dismissing its Samara office head; naming new leadership for its branches in Krasnodar, Perm and Stavropol; and replacing the chief of its technology and information department.



http://www.newsweek.com/putin-meets-economic-collapse-purges-broken-promises-347565

[AkMike]

The end of Putin’s gas bluff

For several consecutive months Gazprom functionaries have been trying to convince Ukraine and the world that gas transit through Ukrainian territory was a closed issue. The decision  to build the “Turkish Stream” had been personally approved by Vladimir Putin, thus demonstrating the seriousness of Russian intentions.

Now, after all these self-assured statements, President Vladimir Putin has instructed the Gazprom head Alexey Miller to hold talks with Ukraine on continuing the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory after 2019. Miller, of course, is trying to pretend that Gazprom retains its tough position and would never agree to unfavorable conditions. But one should remember that as recently as several days ago no one in Gazprom wanted to hear anything at all about any conditions for the negotiations. There would no transit (through Ukraine)and that was it!

As a result of dropping oil prices, the European energy policy, and competition,times are not easy now at Gazprom. The Russian budget also leaves little room for throwing billions into a bottomless pit. In this situation Putin can only look reality in the eye and shed a tear. The gas bluff is coming to an end.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/29/the-end-of-putins-gas-bluff/

[AkMike]

Clothes and Shoe Stores Close Across Moscow as Crisis Strikes
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/clothes-and-shoe-stores-close-across-moscow-as-crisis-strikes/524625.html

Crimean Official Detained on Suspicion of Large-Scale Fraud
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/crimean-official-detained-on-suspicion-of-large-scale-fraud/524621.html

Tunnel Used to Smuggle Chinese-Soviet Intelligence Found
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/tunnel-used-to-smuggle-chinese-soviet-intelligence-found--report/524609.html

Locusts, Spiders, Snakes Plague Russian Regions
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/locusts-spiders-snakes-plague-russian-regions/524623.html

Rights Group Doubts Captured Russian Soldier Had Quit Army
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/rights-group-doubts-captured-russian-soldier-had-quit-army/524626.html

Russian Program to Build World's Biggest Intercontinental Missile Delayed
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-program-to-build-worlds-biggest-intercontinental-missile-delayed/524511.html

Moscow Strawberries Rot in Fields After Trade Near Metro Banned
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/moscow-strawberries-rot-in-fields-after-trade-near-metro-banned/524453.html

France Freezes Funds as Part of Magnitsky Fraud Case
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/france-freezes-funds-as-part-of-magnitsky-fraud-case/524392.html

As Putin Stalls on Economic Reforms, Investors' Frustration Grows
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/as-putin-stalls-on-economic-reforms-investors-frustration-grows/524301.html

Ruble Devaluation Sees Russian Spending on Foreign Real Estate Plunge
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ruble-devaluation-sees-russian-spending-on-foreign-real-estate-plunge/524155.html

[sleepycat]

As a result of dropping oil prices, the European energy policy, and competition,times are not easy now at Gazprom.

I wonder what the 10 year share price chart for Gazprom looks like?

[AkMike]

About like Putin's expected survival after Russia finishes going bankrupt.. Zip, Nil, Nada

[fathertime]

About like Putin's expected survival after Russia finishes going bankrupt.. Zip, Nil, Nada

Today it is Greece close to BK...next week it may be Puerto Rico....this is a bad thing for us here in the USA too....


Fathertime!   

[Muzh]

Today it is Greece close to BK...next week it may be Puerto Rico....this is a bad thing for us here in the USA too....


Fathertime!

PR should definitely default and the whole country should go bankrupt. That would be the best thing ever to happen to them.


Greece, on the other hand, is showing the futility of the EU. The EU does not exist except in German bank ledgers. The is NO Union. At all. The Germans would rather see an EU country sink into the Mediterranean than lose that 25% of their GDP as exports to the EU collapse.


Edit: Oops, that's 25%, not 15%

[Brasscasing]

You gotta laugh at the arrogance of this Putin puppet masquerading as a politician...

Russia Calls For Counter-Sanctions Against 'Anti-Russian' Canada After Ottawa Hammers Moscow

..."One of Moscow's most powerful politicians is calling for his country to adopt heavy countersanctions on Canada after Ottawa made moves Monday to further inhibit the economic activities of 14 Russian companies and three Russian individuals. Alexei Pushkov, who heads the foreign-affairs committee in the State Duma, the lower house of the nation's parliament, said Canada was one of the most anti-Russian countries in the Western alliance and was attempting to broaden "its barely noticeable role in international affairs" by sanctioning it, the official Russian news agency Tass reported"...

"We should not pretend as if nothing is happening, and we need to devise a set of measures in regard to Canada," said Pushkov, who was also reacting to a Canadian ban on imports into and exports out of Crimea, the former Ukrainian territory that Russia annexed in March 2014.

Canada's sanctions, announced by the Stephen Harper-led Conservative government Monday, are primarily aimed at Russia's four main energy producers: Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegas and Transneft."...

http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-calls-counter-sanctions-against-anti-russian-canada-after-ottawa-hammers-1989767

...Another swift kick to Russia's economic crotch compliments of Canada. Barely notice that you maroon.

Seriously though it's time the Canadian government stopped toying with these clowns. I'd be all for withdrawing diplomatic relations and issuing high risk advisories to travelers and Canadian expats living in Russia. If something significant does happen the criminals in the Kremlin have already shown they won't hesitate to take hostages.

Brass

[fathertime]

PR should definitely default and the whole country should go bankrupt. That would be the best thing ever to happen to them.


Greece, on the other hand, is showing the futility of the EU. The EU does not exist except in German bank ledgers. The is NO Union. At all. The Germans would rather see an EU country sink into the Mediterranean than lose that 25% of their GDP as exports to the EU collapse.


Edit: Oops, that's 25%, not 15%

You probably have a pretty good handle on Puerto Rico...why do you think they should go BK?  I will say the recent bond holders collecting the high interest should have known going in this was a strong possibility. 


Fathertime!   

[Muzh]

You probably have a pretty good handle on Puerto Rico...why do you think they should go BK?  I will say the recent bond holders collecting the high interest should have known going in this was a strong possibility. 


Fathertime!

The bond holders were lied to.


As long as PR stays under the heel of the US Congress nothing will change.


I'll give you three guesses and the first two don't count, who do you think instituted the welfare state in PR?

[Brasscasing]

Slowly but surely the pieces are falling into place...

Russia is biggest threat to US national security, Joint Chiefs nominee tells Congress

..."WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia poses the world's greatest threat to U.S. national security, President Barack Obama's nominee to lead the military's Joint Chiefs of Staff declared on Thursday. The White House quickly distanced the president from that blunt assessment.

Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford told senators at his confirmation hearing, "If you want to talk about a nation that could pose an existential threat to the United States, I'd have to point to Russia. And if you look at their behavior, it's nothing short of alarming."...

..."But he said, "My assessment today ... is that Russia presents the greatest threat to our national security."...

..."In Europe, Vladimir Putin's Russia continues its onslaught in Ukraine," said McCain, R-Ariz. "But even as Russian troops and equipment execute this neo-imperial campaign to undermine Ukraine's government and independence, the United States has refused Ukraine the weapons it needs and deserves for its defense."

Dunford agreed with McCain.

"From a military perspective, I think it's reasonable that we provide that support to the Ukrainians," he said. "And frankly, without that kind of support, they're not going to be able to protect themselves against Russian aggression."...

http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2015/07/09/joint-chiefs-nominee-says-he-will-assess-strategy-against-is

The rather perplexing thing is Gen. Dunford is Obama's nominee and the Whitehouse is now scrambling to distance themselves from his assessment/comments.

With yet another voice added to the chorus of stronger assistance for Ukraine you'd think Pres. Obama might reflect on his own lack of resolve and consider the possibility that maybe he's not handling the Russia situation correctly.

As the article alludes to, Gen Dunford, has in fact arrived at the same conclusion Romney (previously) and McCain arrived at (along with every other sane person on the planet) two years ago - Arm Ukraine.

It seems (at least for myself) time has stopped and this second term of Pres. Obama's is never ending.

Hopefully, Gen. Dunford is confirmed and assumes his office quickly. One more person with a true understanding of the current situation in a position to significantly contribute to end Russia's aggression can't hurt, at least.

Brass   

[AkMike]

Gazprom Broke? Is Russia far behind?


Turkmenistan says Russia's Gazprom has not paid for any gas this year

 Turkmenistan, irked by falling natural gas exports to Russia, hit out at Moscow's gas export monopoly Gazprom on Wednesday, saying the energy giant had not paid for gas purchased from the Central Asian country so far this year.

"Since the beginning of 2015, OAO Gazprom has not paid for its debts to state concern Turkmengas for the shipped volumes of Turkmen natural gas," Turkmenistan's Oil and Gas Ministry said in a statement on its official website (www.oilgas.gov.tm).

It did not say how much Gazprom owed Turkmenistan, nor did it say how much Turkmen gas had been shipped to Russia to date.

"Russian company Gazprom has become insolvent on its natural gas purchase-and-sale contracts due to the continued global economic crisis and economic sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia," the ministry's statement said.




http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/08/gas-turkmenistan-gazprom-idUKL8N0ZO30Q20150708

[ML]

Gazprom Broke? Is Russia far behind?

Russia has 1,250 tons of gold included in it's $360,000,000 in Foreign Exchange Reserves.

[sleepycat]

Now there are 23 less Russian soldiers able to go on vacation in Eastern Ukraine. 

http://news.yahoo.com/18-killed-russian-military-barrack-collapse-siberia-govt-061106066.html

No doubt there will not be a word of this on Russian state owned TV as the botox dwarf has made it illegal to report Russian military deaths.

[sleepycat]

http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-poverty-critical-amid-western-sanctions-oil-price-dropping-2008577

The midget president must really be proud of this accomplishment...