BELARUS & RUSSIA

[JayH]

Russia's problems  with it's former SU states is not confined to Ukraine. It seems that there is ever growing chance of a Russian intervention in Belarus.
Belarus also looms large in Russia's much vaunted Area Access/Area Denial capabilities.



Belarus And Russia: This Time It's Different

Given all of this, in the current geopolitical environment, Moscow is increasingly less likely to tolerate too much of what it sees as insubordination from the Belarusian leader.

In fact, when two think tanks -- the Potomac Foundation and the Casimir Pulaski Foundation -- recently war-gamed a potential conflict between Russia and NATO, the simulation began with a Moscow-backed coup in Belarus that overthrows Lukashenka and replaces him with a more pliant figure.

Given all of this, the massive Zapad military exercises planned for later this year, when tens of thousands of Russian troops will be on Belarusian soil, are taking on an ominous tone.

http://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-and-russia-this-time-its-different/28341821.html

[JayH]

Is it too late for Lukashenko to defy Russia?

Why Belarus Can't Afford to Be the New Ukraine


On February 3 Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko launched the fiercest of his rhetorical attacks against Russia—a country that has been financially underpinning Lukashenko’s regime. Despite the audacious comments of the Belarusian leader, there is little chance that his words will convince Moscow to continue providing support to his country with few strings attached. The status quo will likely be extended, which means there will constantly be a diminishing value for Russia. Thus, Lukashenko’s options are few. Either he fully participates in Russia’s integration initiatives, or he sees his power collapsing. At this point, Moscow does not even have to make dramatic moves to rein in Lukashenko, since time is working against the Belarusian president.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-belarus-cant-afford-be-the-new-ukraine-19535

[JayH]

The countries formerly is the control of Russia are scenting the time is right to break away forever.Seeing Ukraine stand up to Russia  has empowered the populations -- and it looks like it will be Belarus being the next to try and shake the shackles.
For Moscow, it raises the specter of another color revolution, perhaps Putin’s greatest fear, at a time when a massive Russian intervention almost certainly would plunge Moscow into a new era of additional sanctions and increased Western hostility.

A Rubicon is crossed: Like Ukrainians, Belarusians now view fighting despotism as patriotic
The Belarusian protests have crossed a Rubicon in recent days, Roman Popkov argues: Belarusians taking part in them now view fighting the despotism of the Alyaksandr Lukashenka regime as a patriotic act, a development that means they increasingly resemble Ukrainians in 2013.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/03/08/a-rubicon-is-crossed-like-ukrainians-belarusians-now-view-fighting-despotism-as-patriotic-euromaidan-press/

[JayH]

Events in Belarus are following an all to familiar path. Russia is following it's normal script of unsettling and provocation to justify it's interference in another country  --again.


Outrage as Belarus arrests authors, publishers and journalists in crackdown
Human rights organisations have called on Belarusian authorities to drop all charges immediately against writers, publishers and journalists who have been arrested following a wave of nationwide protests.

http://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/23/belarus-arrests-authors-publishers-and-journalists-minsk-literature-festival