More Bad News for Russia

[lordtiberius]

I failed to read anything whatsoever insulting in Boe's post. She has an opinion and a very valid one. Please point to me where you think she's wrong?

You fail because she did not direct her insults at you.  She calls people who disagree with her war mongers and chicken hawks for disagreeing with her indefensible, impractical and immoral position of legitimating Russian aggression. 

[Muzh]

Good Friday is not until next week for me.


Suggesting you do not speak the language is hardly an insult.  I would hazard a guess I speak to more Ukrainians than most anyone on this forum.

For the love of god, I don't understand why you give this moron a venue to spew his ignorance and stupidity.


Do you want to borrow this and use it instead of replying to Mr. Wonderful?

[Muzh]

I seriously think you are full of it.

Oh, and I'm sure you DO talk to a ton of Ukrainians in UA, right?

[lordtiberius]

I am just a phone call away Charlie.  Classy and brave as yellow snow . . .

[Muzh]

I am just a phone call away Charlie.  Classy and brave as yellow snow . . .

And what are you going to do? Bore me to death?


Ooo, I'm shaking.

[Boethius]

You fail because she did not direct her insults at you.  She calls people who disagree with her war mongers and chicken hawks for disagreeing with her indefensible, impractical and immoral position of legitimating Russian aggression.

The warmonger statement is accurate.  I didn't call anyone a chickenhawk.   Nor did I state Russia's aggression should be legitimized. 


Realistically, Ukraine is not going to get Crimea back from Russia.  Sending boys to die is not going to change that.  So, the world's alternative is to make retaining it a huge financial drain.

[Boethius]

I seriously think you are full of it.

I am crushed.  Absolutely crushed by your disapproval and disbelief.

[lordtiberius]

And what are you going to do? Bore me to death?


Ooo, I'm shaking.

We both know what kind of man you are old man.  So stop pretending.  You are about as tough butter in a microwave.  If you are going to use fighting words, be a man about it.  LFU did.  What's your problem?  Don't answer that.  Now go tattle because I used your first name.

I am crushed.  Absolutely crushed by your disapproval and disbelief.

Like I said, what church do you go to?  If you despise us so much why are you here?

The warmonger statement is accurate.

 

You don't know the first thing about war or warmongers.

I didn't call anyone a chickenhawk.

   

Yes you did and I am not going to argue this with you anymore.  You should apologize and move on.

Nor did I state Russia's aggression should be legitimized. 

A peace for Crimea would effectively  legitimate Russian aggression.  You are a lawyer.  You know that.

Realistically, Ukraine is not going to get Crimea back from Russia.  Sending boys to die is not going to change that.  So, the world's alternative is to make retaining it a huge financial drain.

Is this how you live with yourself?  By making the obscene palatable?

An invasion of Europe in 1941 was not possible or practical.  Nor was it practical in 1942 and only partially so in 1943.  But it did happen.  People around the world and in Ukraine - see a united Ukraine.  They see a reconquest of the Donbass and Crimea.  I support those people.  If that makes me a warmonger in your eyes, get some glasses.  If that means I am chickenhawk in your eyes, because I am not fighting myself go to Walgreens and buy some Kleenex.  I am not ashamed of what I believe because it is moral.

[Boethius]

I am not apologizing for my views.  Nor do I need to explain myself to you or anyone else.


You do know war, but advocate sending thousands of Ukrainians to die. 

[lordtiberius]

Let me clarify my views.  I do not think Ukraine is in the position to take on the Russian army in any offensive capacity.  That is suicide and that is not the art of war.  The only way I think this will end is with decisive military victories for Ukraine.  This requires offensive capabilities that Ukraine (a smaller force) does not have.  So thus without international political support for arming Ukraine with superior military capabilities offensive operations against the Russian military are not possible in 2015 or 2016.

My views are no different than John McCain.  The Novorossiyans call me a war monger.  That's fine.  Is the Donbas and Crimea financially money holes?  I don't think any place on God's green earth is unproductive.  People make the land unproductive.  With economic freedom and political reform, anything is possible.  The entire world is getting richer.   

[mendeleyev]

Bo:

Realistically, Ukraine is not going to get Crimea back from Russia. Sending boys to die is not going to change that.  So, the world's alternative is to make retaining it a huge financial drain.

Correct.

There is an interesting oped piece in today's Moscow Times that speaks to the issue of future reparations, debt forgiveness, and free gas for years. Russia does need to pay dearly, in terms that will impact every Russian citizen, for the brazen theft of Ukrainian territory.

I would personally like to see additional sanctions against Russia, such as suspension from the WTO and SWIFT, in place for decades to come, for the mistreatment of Crimean Tatars. I would like to see the issue tied to an international tribunal that would monitor this, and for each year that Russia fails to meet international standards regarding the Tatars, an additional five years of crippling financial sanctions would be levied. Make Russia pay far into the future, long after the corpse of some forgotten man lies rotting next to Stalin in some hole along the Kremlin wall.

In regards to Crimea, Bo is absolutely correct in that the vast majority of those people did not wish to remain in Ukraine. However, that does not excuse the way in which Moscow plotted, lied, and stole the territory.

In Russian security council meetings during the events of Maidan, there was no overwhelming concern for the people, the Russian language, or the culture of Crimea. There was scant concern for ethnic Ukrainians and/or Tatars in Crimea. There was a concern that the revolution might spread southward, but most ministers of government were of sufficient intelligence to understand that the large natural Russian bias in the region would see such movement extinguish.

In those meetings there was great anticipation about "what if we didn't have to pay for leases," and similar issues. The annexation of Crimea was a plum that fell in their lap, so to speak, and had absolutely zilch, nada, zero, to do with concern for those who live there. The fact that Putin would lie over and over about it, only to later go on national television and brag about his conquest, speaks volumes about his personal character and mental state.

However, we should remember that the majority of those who live there made his deception very easy. During the months leading up to the annexation, the Kremlin paid professional pollsters to judge the reaction of Crimean citizens were Russia to make such a move. The results confirmed that it would be easy to accomplish.

A normal government in Moscow could have easily directed, quietly, for the existing Crimean parliament to conduct a referendum. But this one is not normal, and leaves nothing to chance. Thus the misdirection, lies, and general dishonesty we saw in the annexation.

The election itself reflected the dishonesty so common in Russian elections. Even if every ethnic Ukrainian citizen had voted, and most understood that remaining alive and healthy dictated that they stay home, and even if every ethic Tatar had voted, and those folk who have experienced the wrath of mother Russia wisely stayed away from the polls; still the final result was a joke. Just as he didn't need to steal the election of 2012, he would have won anyway, and just as he didn't need to steal the parliamentary election of 2010, as his party would have won anyway, there is a need of some strongmen to bolster their own egos with inflated numbers. That was also clearly seen in the Crimean referendum.

There are patterns:

- The war with Georgia in 2008 was said to be only a Russian response to Georgian aggression. That was despite inviting foreign media to come to the border in the three days leading up to the war. That claim was made despite the fact that for weeks the Russian army had begun to mass along the border. Yet, leading up to the presidential election of 2012 we saw the man bragging on television about how he ordered the invasion of Georgia because Russian intelligence organs had supposedly discovered a Georgian plot to sabotage preparations for the coming Sochi Olympics.

- In the annexation of Crimea, we were told that the little green men were a mystery--home grown local guys who had visited the corner Army surplus store and had acquired the latest Russian-issue uniforms, without insignia of course, and amazingly modern weapons which we were told can now be found at the corner Army surplus store. Hundreds of Russian helicopters, many seen with my own eyes, dropped paratroopers in to reinforce the little green men who had previously visited the surplus stores. Ah, but that was a figment of the imagination. They didn't exist, because the treaty/lease provisions limited the number of Russian helicopters (3) that could fly over Crimea at any given time--and we all know that Russia would never violate a treaty. But, now we learn (sigh) that it was part of an elaborate scheme, directed from the Kremlin to bring Crimea and Sevastopol home to mama Russia.

- Weak egos often feel the need to appear strong: as in bare chested horseback riders, hunters for tigers that have been previously shot with tranquilizers, discovering artifacts that have been conveniently positioned at the bottom of rivers, and rigged elections even when the rigging is unnecessary, etc.

Fortunately, dishonest and dishonourable patterns eventually unravel. This will happen, and the colour revolution that some so desperately fear, will eventually find a home on their doorstep.

We live in interesting times.

 

[LiveFromUkraine]

No.  Cities and countries always rebuild given the right policies and with some help from their friends.  Does Ukraine have any?

With their level of corruption, it makes me wonder if they can come back.  As for friends, I don' think there is such a thing.  It tends to be more of a "what's in it for me" approach with most countries.  Hopefully, there can be a mutual benefit to a prosperous Ukraine without selling the whole damn country down the road.


First thing first, they need to take back east Ukraine.

[lordtiberius]

I don't dispute your analysis.  It just assumes a rational and stable Russia.  I think Russia is collapsing and that collapse is gradual now, it could be more rapid later on.  In the event of a collapse, a reconquest of the Donbas and Crimea need not be bloody or as impossible as you believe.

[Boethius]

Good analysis, Mendy.

Oh, and I'm sure you DO talk to a ton of Ukrainians in UA, right?

When I switched service providers, I obtained a sweetheart deal, 3 cents a minute for calls to Europe, including Ukraine.   I know it is no longer available, because I know coworkers who asked for the deal and didn't receive it.  It is grandfathered, even though I signed up well over a decade ago, and it is so cheap, it is not worth skyping.


I have relatives in many of Western Ukraine's cities, but many others still live in the village, where internet service is unavailable.  However, they all have telephones (none did before the collapse).   

[Muzh]

You don't know the first thing about war or warmongers.
   

Oh? And you do know about war?


Well, about warmongers you seem like an expert.


The communists had a term for people like you: Useful Idiots.

[Anotherkiwi]

My two cents' worth (and that's about all it's worth, but everyone else is putting forward their views, so why can't I?).  Unlike most here, I don't have family or relatives in Ukraine or Russia.  I do have friends there, however, so I do have a tiny stake in the future well-being of Ukraine, as I don't want anything to happen to them.

First - the idea behind Minsk II seems to have been the closest that we'll see to a real peace plan, even though it is extremely flawed and badly skewed in favour of the separatist areas.  There needs to be a concerted effort to try to make it work (at least, better than it is at the moment).  As Russia won't allow UN peacekeepers into the area, that really leaves only the OSCE as a neutral force for good.  They need to be strongly beefed up, and given proper powers to enforce what's supposed to happen under the treaty.  The separatist forces need to be made to understand that will be severe consequences for their continued breaches of the ceasefire, and those consequences MUST be enforced.  If that means people being sent to The Hague to face a war crimes tribunal, so be it.

Second - although there are supposed to be referenda and agreements about the level of self-government for the separatist regions before the border becomes an issue, I believe that the border area is more critical.  The holes along that whole eastern front need to be filled in before anything else can happen, otherwise the non-existent Russian forces will continue to make a mockery of Ukrainian sovereignty by going backwards and forwards across the border with total impunity.

Third - once that's done, another border area can be created around the DPR and LPR.  If they seriously want independence greater autonomy, and can hold proper, independently-supervised referenda to show that this is the will of the people, let them.  Then, with the new borders in place, tell them that, with autonomy, comes the responsibility for EVERYTHING within those borders, just as was the case in Crimea.  Everything means EVERYTHING, from repairing all the war-damaged homes and businesses to paying all the salaries and pensions that were formerly the responsibility of the Ukrainian Government, back-dated to the initial declarations of "independence" last year.  Why should the rest of Ukraine have to be bankrupted to pay for the consequences of the megalomania of a few people?

Let's see how long that lasts.

Finally - Crimea.  I can agree with everyone here - it IS part of Ukraine, BUT the majority of the people do apparently want to be part of Russia.  Hold another referendum, but make this one that EVERYONE outside the region can be comfortable with.  Give all the options as if the annexation had never happened - remain part of Ukraine (with or without changes to its autonomous status and the way that it was governed); become a totally independent country; become part of Russia (again, with options on what sort of status it would have).  Presumably the Ukrainian constitution would have to be amended to allow the second and third options to be put in a ballot.

The second or third options, if chosen, would then have to have the consequence of full reparations to be paid for all businesses seized or "Russianised," and payments to people injured during the invasion and the families of those people killed.  For those people who could not (or would not) stay under these terms (e.g. many of the Tatars), compulsory purchase of their homes and businesses by the new state (or Russia) at the market rates prevailing BEFORE the invasion, plus an allowance for the time since, so that they may have a chance to start a new life elsewhere in Ukraine.  All property insurance policies in force at the time of the invasion to be paid out in full for all such refugees.  Water, electricity, telecommunications and transport links to be restored in full at no cost to Crimea, but only if Russia provides the cost-equivalent amount of gas to Ukraine at no charge and forgoes any claim to outstanding amounts owed.  The cost of gas over and above this equivalency to be paid for at the latest rates in force BEFORE the invasion of Crimea.

That's just a start.  I know that it's mainly pie in the sky, because Russia will never agree, but are there any politicians out there with the intestinal fortitude to do something for their people, and not just for themselves?

[mendeleyev]

Well articulated, AnotherKiwi.

[Slumba]

Mendy, the only point I would make - we have China (which charges families for the bullet used to execute their kin) which has the lowest level of tariffs, MFN status,  and Saudi Arabia (which beheads people), to deal with first, if we are going to be enforcing our moral outrage rigorously.

[lordtiberius]

I am glad AnotherKiwi is not negotiating for the West.  He offers nothing that he haven't already got with the status quo.  His proposal legitimates the seizure and is silent on Crimean Tatars.

[Belvis]

That's just a start.  I know that it's mainly pie in the sky, because Russia will never agree

Your plan is idealistic because you have  biased understanding of political processes there.  Enough said, that Ukraine will never agree on your plan. Though  part of your plan Kiev will try to fulfill, namely the blocade of rebels regions as you actually has proposed.
   All plans which will try to relieve the responsibility of Ukraine in the settlement will fail  assuredly.

[lordtiberius]

If the regions want to separate why should Ukraine be responsible for social payments and reconstruction?

[AkMike]

Deshchytsia: Kyiv not give the Crimea or Donbass for "compromise with Russia"
Sunday, April 5, 2015, 18:29






Print  Comments 6


Kyiv will not relinquish their territories - Crimea and Donbas - for some compromise with Russia.

Said the Ambassador of Ukraine in Poland Andriy Deshchytsia in an interview with Polish newspaper "Gazeta Wyborcza".

"Crimea as Ukrainian territory is occupied by Russia. We consider Russia an aggressor. We do not consider the possibility to give Donbass and Crimea as a compromise. We want to regain full control over territory and control of the border," - he said.
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/04/5/7063780/

[lordtiberius]

Is he a warmonger too?

[Faux Pas]

You fail because she did not direct her insults at you.  She calls people who disagree with her war mongers and chicken hawks for disagreeing with her indefensible, impractical and immoral position of legitimating Russian aggression.

I fail because there were no insults in the posts. Wishing there were insults in the post or trying to read between the lines doesn't  divine them or make them there

[lordtiberius]

Whatever makes you happy dude