The Russian/Syrian connection thread

[2tallbill]

Can someone please explain why on earth American troops should think that they are entitled to immunity from prosecution for crimes they've committed?  Tourists don't get such protection - only diplomats do, and many countries will waive immunity if the crime is serious ($20,000 worth of unpaid parking tickets doesn't count).  If GI Smith is seen stealing cigarettes from a shop, or bashing some local Iraqi teenager, why should he not be prosecuted?

There are few places more corrupt than Iraq. Could you imagine a better scam than to
accuse a GI of raping your daughter? or the GI could pay you off? Can you imagine that
The mother of an Al Qaeda swearing that her boy with the suicide vest was a good boy and
that the GI's killed her good boy? can you imagine if you are in a shootout with a terrorist
and one of the 10 thousand bullets goes through his head and across the street and kills
an innocent? Maybe it was the terrorist that fired the shot, but do you want corporal Joe-Bob
Hicks rotting in an Iraqi jail to be tried in two years by a corrupt judge related to the dead
terrorist?

The US armed forces has a tribunal system so does most countries, we police our own.

The truth is that Saddam didn't invite us to Iraq, the Taliban didn't invite us to
Afghanistan. We came anyway, and we can leave if and when we want and think
we should. If Mal-ball-licky doesn't agree with us we can arrest him for corruption
(which he is very very guilty of) shoot him and appoint another who is less
argumentative. We would have less difficulty if we stopped stepping on our own
d!ck being so sensitive.

Just my dva kopecks

[SANDRO43]

The US armed forces has a tribunal system so does most countries, we police our own.

Yes, and the result of it is that an idiot who killed 20 innocent Italian skyers was booted out of the Corps simply for "conduct unbecoming an officer" . Unavoidable collateral damage, in a non-war theatre ?

[2tallbill]

Yes, and the result of it is that an idiot who killed 20 innocent Italian skyers was booted out of the Corps simply for "conduct unbecoming an officer" . Unavoidable collateral damage, in a non-war theatre ?

The pilot received a six-month prison term.  The Italian legislature approved a monetary compensation plan for the families ($1.9 million per victim). NATO treaties obliged the U.S. government to pay 75% of this compensation, which it did.

[2tallbill]

Syrian forces begin ground offensive backed by Russia air and sea power
By Andrew Roth and Erin Cunningham Washington Post

MOSCOW — Russia’s Caspian Sea fleet on Wednesday launched a complex cruise missile strike against Syrian rebels from nearly 1,000 miles away, a potent exhibition of Moscow’s firepower as it backs a government offensive in Syria’s multi-faction civil war.



The bombardment was the first naval salvo of Russia’s week-old military intervention in Syria, where it has already launched more than 100 airstrikes against the Islamic State and factions of Islamist and U.S.-backed rebel forces opposed to President Bashar al-Assad.

The attack showcased Russia’s advanced military capabilities and closer coordination with the governments of Iran and Iraq, whose airspace the missiles traversed before striking targets in Syria held by the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, an affiliate of al-Qaeda.

there is more read all about it here
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-activists-russian-air-strikes-pound-rebel-zones-in-latest-blows/2015/10/07/fb3be168-5cf3-4e38-98f3-f6b75ed53871_story.html

[BillyB]

I am undecided about the implications of Russia's growing presence in the Middle East. 
 

Russia is sharpening their warring skills, one being firing cruise missiles from 1000 miles away on Syrian targets. More importantly they are showing the world that they can bomb American allies without consequences. Those men getting training support from America to fight Assad better give it up and go home because they're as good as dead. I'm not surprise Iraq is looking for support from Russia because Obama is not very willing to go all in with support.

[fathertime]

I don't share your optimism that Obama would respond if Russia attacked one of the
Baltic countries. He would more likely send a strongly worded letter or some kind of
economic sanctions. If Obama doesn't send forces, then the who is going to stop Russia?
France? Belgium? Italy?

I hope the US is learning it's lesson from Ukraine/Syria...the lesson is Best not to try to encourage uprisings, arm,  or participate in fostering coups with countries that Russia is allied or bordered with.   


My belief is that as long as we stay out of The Baltics ourselves, then Russia will have no reason to make a move to take them.  All that said, if Russia were to suddenly invade, then I certainly think the countries of NATO would respond and make it a very costly move, in a permanent way for Russia...and they would most likely be right to do so. 


Fathertime!   

[mendeleyev]

then Russia will have no reason to make a move to take them.

With all respect FT, obviously you have not just happened to be reading, viewing, or listening to Russia media the past year. They have been steadily building a case with the Russian people. Will they make a move? I hope not.

The presence of the USA really has only little bearing on a man who believes that the breakup of the CCCP was the single biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the last century.

[fathertime]

With all respect FT, obviously you have not just happened to be reading, viewing, or listening to Russia media the past year. They have been steadily building a case with the Russian people. Will they make a move? I hope not.

The presence of the USA really has only little bearing on a man who believes that the breakup of the CCCP was the single biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the last century.

Well in some respects it does make sense that he would prepare his people.    It may be a way to keep NATO/US on their toes about how bad things could get, BUT Russia would be on the receiving end of so much worldwide ire if they took the Baltic nations, that I just don't see it happening.  My belief is that the NATO nations would go to war over an invasion like that, and Putin probably realizes this, and knows it isn't going to be worth going into those nations, who would also offer resistance themselves.


   It is a good move for him to prepare though, as perhaps that will keep the US presence in those nations to a minimum.  Of course there are other scenarios too, but they involve US aggression first, which hopefully will not come to pass. 


Fathertime! 

[2tallbill]

BUT Russia would be on the receiving end of so much worldwide ire if they took the Baltic nations, that I just don't see it happening. 

Russia historically doesn't usually worry about such stuff, they adopt an us vs them attitude.

My belief is that the NATO nations would go to war over an invasion like that, and Putin probably realizes this, and knows it isn't going to be worth going into those nations, who would also offer resistance themselves.

Only if the USA were to spearhead it. Luxembourg, Turkey and France isn't.

[Muzh]

My belief is that as long as we stay out of The Baltics ourselves, then Russia will have no reason to make a move to take them.  All that said, if Russia were to suddenly invade, then I certainly think the countries of NATO would respond and make it a very costly move, in a permanent way for Russia...and they would most likely be right to do so. 


Fathertime!

The problem is that US has no choice BUT to stay in or around the Baltics once they accepted them in NATO. Period.

[2tallbill]

Congress probing U.S. spy agencies' possible lapses on Russia
Reuters By Mark Hosenball, Phil Stewart and Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senior U.S. lawmakers have begun probing possible intelligence lapses over Moscow’s intervention in Syria, concerned that American spy agencies were slow to grasp the scope and intention of Russia’s dramatic military offensive there, U.S. congressional sources and other officials told Reuters.

    A week after Russia plunged directly into Syria’s civil war by launching a campaign of air strikes, the intelligence committees of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives want to examine the extent to which the spy community overlooked or misjudged critical warning signs, the sources said.

    Findings of major blind spots would mark the latest of several U.S. intelligence misses in recent years, including Moscow’s surprise takeover of Ukraine’s Crimea region last year and China’s rapid expansion of island-building activities in the South China Sea.

there is more read all about it here
http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-congress-probing-u-spy-agencies-possible-lapses-051400295.html

[Muzh]

Well in some respects it does make sense that he would prepare his people.    It may be a way to keep NATO/US on their toes about how bad things could get, BUT Russia would be on the receiving end of so much worldwide ire if they took the Baltic nations, that I just don't see it happening.  My belief is that the NATO nations would go to war over an invasion like that, and Putin probably realizes this, and knows it isn't going to be worth going into those nations, who would also offer resistance themselves.

That is the common wisdom. Exactly the same as Russia will NOT invade Crimea was last year. Keep in mind, we are not dealing with someone making logistical decisions, more likely tactical decisions. And that's giving him the benefit of the doubt. Eventually, his strategical decision is going to get him, and us, in trouble.

   It is a good move for him to prepare though, as perhaps that will keep the US presence in those nations to a minimum.  Of course there are other scenarios too, but they involve US aggression first, which hopefully will not come to pass. 

Fathertime!

Obviously, you see what I'm saying. It is all tactical. 

[Muzh]

Congress probing U.S. spy agencies' possible lapses on Russia
Reuters By Mark Hosenball, Phil Stewart and Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senior U.S. lawmakers have begun probing possible intelligence lapses over Moscow’s intervention in Syria, concerned that American spy agencies were slow to grasp the scope and intention of Russia’s dramatic military offensive there, U.S. congressional sources and other officials told Reuters.

    A week after Russia plunged directly into Syria’s civil war by launching a campaign of air strikes, the intelligence committees of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives want to examine the extent to which the spy community overlooked or misjudged critical warning signs, the sources said.

    Findings of major blind spots would mark the latest of several U.S. intelligence misses in recent years, including Moscow’s surprise takeover of Ukraine’s Crimea region last year and China’s rapid expansion of island-building activities in the South China Sea.

there is more read all about it here
http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-congress-probing-u-spy-agencies-possible-lapses-051400295.html

I wonder if Congress probing their intelligence agencies would have prevented Hitler from invading Europe.

[2tallbill]

I wonder if Congress probing their intelligence agencies would have prevented Hitler from invading Europe.

I think most people knew Hitler was going to invade Europe but many wished
it away and gave him little pieces hoping that it would sate his appetite. The
US didn't have much of an intelligence apparatus before WWII.

[Anotherkiwi]

There are few places more corrupt than Iraq. Could you imagine a better scam than to accuse a GI of raping your daughter? or the GI could pay you off? Can you imagine that The mother of an Al Qaeda swearing that her boy with the suicide vest was a good boy and that the GI's killed her good boy? can you imagine if you are in a shootout with a terrorist and one of the 10 thousand bullets goes through his head and across the street and kills an innocent? Maybe it was the terrorist that fired the shot, but do you want corporal Joe-Bob Hicks rotting in an Iraqi jail to be tried in two years by a corrupt judge related to the dead terrorist?

The US armed forces has a tribunal system so does most countries, we police our own.

The truth is that Saddam didn't invite us to Iraq, the Taliban didn't invite us to Afghanistan. We came anyway, and we can leave if and when we want and think we should. If Mal-ball-licky doesn't agree with us we can arrest him for corruption (which he is very very guilty of) shoot him and appoint another who is less argumentative. We would have less difficulty if we stopped stepping on our own
d!ck being so sensitive.

Just my dva kopecks

Bill, please read properly what I wrote (and which you quoted) before you go off half-cocked.

If GI Smith is seen stealing cigarettes from a shop, or bashing some local Iraqi teenager, why should he not be prosecuted?

Of course allegations without direct witnesses can be very difficult to prove (or disprove).  I'm talking about cases where the evidence is direct and unequivocal.

[Gator]

Four Russian cruise missiles fired from the Caspian sea crashed into Iran.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-missiles-fell-short-of-syria-landed-in-iran-u-s-says-1444331295?mod=trending_now_10


These missiles are  the Kaliber class and are considered Russia's best cruise missiles.

http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/russian-sub-receive-high-precision-cruise-missile/


Unless Russian weapons technology is years behind the US, one could say the strikes in Iran are  not an accident but done intentionally (e. g.,  attack Kurdish separatist strongholds).  The Kurdish homelands are located in NW Iran, in the area shown in 2Tall's map under the missile flight path.   

[Gator]

Congress probing U.S. spy agencies' possible lapses on Russia
Reuters By Mark Hosenball, Phil Stewart and Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senior U.S. lawmakers have begun probing possible intelligence lapses over Moscow’s intervention in Syria, concerned that American spy agencies were slow to grasp the scope and intention of Russia’s dramatic military offensive there, U.S. congressional sources and other officials told Reuters.....

Alert for any spies reading RWD:     This is just the beginning of Putin's entry into the Middle East.  He will do more.  Write the word "Iraq" in your next report.  Look up the term "Little Green Men."

[Anathema]

Four Russian cruise missiles fired from the Caspian sea crashed into Iran. 

Margin of error, one or two countries.    Lol!

And to think there are people here who believe Russia has a capable fighting force.

Another link: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/08/russian-cruise-missiles-intended-for-targets-in-syria-hit-iran-instead/?intcmp=hpbt3

[Gator]

Another link: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/08/russian-cruise-missiles-intended-for-targets-in-syria-hit-iran-instead/?intcmp=hpbt3

Good interview in the video. 

[2tallbill]

Bill, please read properly what I wrote (and which you quoted) before you go off half-cocked.

Of course allegations without direct witnesses can be very difficult to prove (or disprove).  I'm talking about cases where the evidence is direct and unequivocal.

Seen or witnessed by who?

My point was that there would be no shortage of local Iraqi witnesses to all sorts of
crimes every single day if such a thing were allowed. Whats half cocked about that?

[BillyB]

And to think there are people here who believe Russia has a capable fighting force.

Many think tanks and studies show Russia having the second most powerful military in the world. They are far behind America but with the amount of nukes they own, it makes them practically our equal.

Another link: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/08/russian-cruise-missiles-intended-for-targets-in-syria-hit-iran-instead/?intcmp=hpbt3

How does anybody know all those cruise missiles were targeted for Syria? 4 missiles supposedly failed but none failed over the water and none failed over Iraq who apparently gave Russia permission to send warheads over their heads. There is a report one missile landed in an Iranian village. What are the chances of that happening and what is Russia doing programing those missile to fly over civilian populations?


Russia is capable of making airplanes that fly millions of miles and intercontinental missiles that fly half way around the world. Your phone with gps can successfully navigate you to your destination and I'm sure the navigational system in those missiles are just as accurate.


Russia is mounting an air campaign in Syria and Iran has boots on the ground in Syria. They are teaming up. Maybe Iran asked Russia to do them a favor and what better time to do that and disguise it as an attack on Syrian rebels? Russia could've made the attacks on Syrian rebels from the Mediterranean Sea which is a shorter and less hazardous route, but of course, missiles fired from that direction wouldn't be flying over Iran.


It's possible Russia has manufacturers defects in 4 missiles and they all just happen to fall in Iran but it's also possible Russia is telling the truth that every missile hit it's intended target.

[mendeleyev]

Given the more recent advances in technology, my first guess is that they hit their intended targets, Gator.

Near the beginning of the Medvedev presidency, the Russian Navy was conducting target practice and were supposedly aiming at a deserted island. However, they instead hit a village deep along the Russian-Finnish border. No serious casualities.

Then about a year later during the annual battleship parade on Victory Day out in Vladivostok, one crew mistook a live missile for a dummy. They fired and it promptly slammed into an apartment building on the side of a hill.

Score: Russian Navy 1, Apartment building 0.

Fortunately, the building's occupants had gathered on the hill above the building to watch the parade. It caused enough of a local stir that Medvedev ordered an investigation and traveled there himself to show residents that he was looking into it personally.

These days however, their technology is more advanced and this is not the old Soviet military. Frankly, these proxy wars are a convenient way for large nations to test their latest toys, fix any bugs, and get ready for larger conflicts.

[Brasscasing]

Well, so much for Russia's attempt at copy catting the US version of shock and awe.

A couple of things here...

1) The missile strike was a failure. Four of 26 '3M14TE Kalibr-NK' systems thundered in midflight and although not confirmed as of yet, of the 22 missiles that did reach Syria and the reportedly 11 assigned targets, (there are reports surfacing) they were not accurate. In other words they failed to hit the target in several cases.

I'll add I view the last observation with some skepticism as the Russians don't factor accuracy in air or artillery strikes.

They employ a tactic called "grid warfare" (for the uninitiated) this means they choose a target, plot the 4 or 6 figure grid coordinates and pummel the entire grid...no real accuracy required.

2) However, what the missile launch shows is the Russians are catching up. They'll learn from these real time high tech blunders and eventually arrive at something that actually flies.

One last note...there is a possibility that the four misfires all came from the same Kalibr launcher meaning that of the one frigate and four corvettes that took part in the operation one of the ship's launcher was faulty. This might account for the extraordinary high failure rate.

Brass

[Gator]

One last note...there is a possibility that the four misfires all came from the same Kalibr launcher meaning that of the one frigate and four corvettes that took part in the operation one of the ship's launcher was faulty. This might account for the extraordinary high failure rate.

Reasonable, but we will never know because it is Russia whose level of transparency as well as restraint is far different from the America's.   We will admit the tragic mistake of blasting a Doctors Without Borders hospital and apologize.  In contrast, consider MH17.   

[Gator]

RWD readers have followed closely the conflict in Ukraine and are alarmed by the number of deaths the conflict has caused as well as the injuries, the displacement of residents, and the destruction of property.  In March 2015 the UN OCHA reports over 6,,000 have died in the Ukrainian conflict (soldiers and civilians). 

Compare the number with the civil war in Syria.  "On 15 January 2015, the United Nations put out an estimate of 220,000 that had died in the war."  And the refugee problem is a crisis and growing.  Something needs to be done, and it seems the answer will be for Russia to step up the bombing until Assad's opposition relents. 

Those who were concerned in the past about civilian deaths in air strikes should become even more concerned now with Russia dropping the ordnance.   Russia does not operate with the same restraint as the US.