Russian Women Discussion

RWD News From the Front => Ukrainian Front Discussion => Topic started by: krimster2 on November 16, 2018, 12:25:57 PM

Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on November 16, 2018, 12:25:57 PM
Russian 49th Army motor rifle infantry & tank units based in Stavropol are joining artillery units (Grad MLRS & Msta-B) from 150th Motor Rifle Division based in Novocherkassk as part of a new military build-up in Western military district about 50 km from Ukraine border

I love iphone tracking
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: jone on November 26, 2018, 11:09:47 AM
Here is a video of the confrontation in the Kerch Strait. 

http://youtu.be/gcTSDaCg5xA

The two Ukrainian naval vessels and the tug are being held by the Russians.  There is no word given on the status of the captured crew members.

Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on November 26, 2018, 11:29:54 AM
the naval confrontation was planned in advance
a week before the "incident" new Russian ships came in to Azov
there is talk of declaring "Martial Law" in Ukraine
elections coming up...
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on November 26, 2018, 11:57:35 AM
More and stronger sanctions by the international community against Russia? I don't know if there's any Russians or any Russian companies left in Russia to sanction?
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 26, 2018, 12:33:45 PM
the naval confrontation was planned in advance
a week before the "incident" new Russian ships came in to Azov
there is talk of declaring "Martial Law" in Ukraine
elections coming up...

Martial Law has been declared for a 30 day period at this stage

More and stronger sanctions by the international community against Russia? I don't know if there's any Russians or any Russian companies left in Russia to sanction?

Let me write the sanctions -- it can be done that would bring the Russians to their knees .It did not happen under the namby pamby pissweak Obama administration ( over Russia)   and is even more unlikely with the the corrupt idiot in chief who is hopelessly compromised over Russia. It is a pathetic disgrace of  of avoidance of international responsibilities.
The bottom line is the chaos sown by Russia ( Brexit ,Trump etc) has created a window of opportunity for Putin.

The concern -- that Russia is ready to go with a water based invasion via the Azov sea -- the fact is that it is ready to go ,It is highly likely that any invasion will be on multiple fronts.

This is by far the most dangerous situation Ukraine has faced -- and it looks like the west has deserted Ukraine again and will leave it to face Russia alone.

It is  a pathetic weak west .

FWIW -- it would be quite simple to fix this -- send the US destroyer that is in the region to sail into the Azov sea -- see how smart that f..wited Putin really is !!!
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on November 26, 2018, 01:07:55 PM

The concern -- that Russia is ready to go with a water based invasion via the Azov sea -- the fact is that it is ready to go ,It is highly likely that any invasion will be on multiple fronts.

This is by far the most dangerous situation Ukraine has faced -- and it looks like the west has deserted Ukraine again and will leave it to face Russia alone.

It is  a pathetic weak west .

FWIW -- it would be quite simple to fix this -- send the US destroyer that is in the region to sail into the Azov sea -- see how smart that f..wited Putin really is !!!

If Putin were to invade Mariupol from the sea that would end any possible doubts that Russia is behind the war in eastern Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia would intensify and the ruble would drop in value like a stone.

Sending a US destroyer and its escorts into the Azov Sea would certainly send a message to Putin that the world is watching.
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 26, 2018, 01:25:30 PM
If Putin were to invade Mariupol from the sea that would end any possible doubts that Russia is behind the war in eastern Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia would intensify and the ruble would drop in value like a stone.

Sending a US destroyer and its escorts into the Azov Sea would certainly send a message to Putin that the world is watching.

Dave really -I want to be polite --but --who on this earth with a vestige of a brain is in any doubt about Russia created a war by invading Ukraine--even Putin has admitted it !  Of course Trump will be at a "they" say maybe it was or mayb eit wasn't etc ! Like I said -anyone with a skerrick of a brain has worked it out!
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: jone on November 26, 2018, 01:44:31 PM
Anyone who has witnessed history will tell you that sending an un-protected destroyer through a pair of defended shores is not something that the US navy would ever consider.   If the US were to make a move, it is much more likely that the current naval complement in the Black Sea would be increased (substantially) and would probably be comprised of naval vessels from more NATO countries than just the United States.
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on November 26, 2018, 02:37:18 PM
starting from 28 November

http://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1067156145339535373/photo/1

as the image shows, not all of Ukraine is under martial law
just the areas that are in the path of the impending Russian invasion

meanwhile, Uzbekistan is holding the largest military drill in the country's history, coincidence???
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: GQBlues on November 26, 2018, 03:33:02 PM
Anyone who has witnessed history will tell you that sending an un-protected destroyer through a pair of defended shores is not something that the US navy would ever consider.   If the US were to make a move, it is much more likely that the current naval complement in the Black Sea would be increased (substantially) and would probably be comprised of naval vessels from more NATO countries than just the United States.

Why would the US get involved? Ukraine is not a NATO member. Let either the UN or the Europeans handle this matter for a change...

Besides, the timing of this is suspect to say the least considering the March election.
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: BillyB on November 26, 2018, 03:54:06 PM
Sending a US destroyer and its escorts into the Azov Sea would certainly send a message to Putin that the world is watching.

Obama sent single destroyers into the Black Sea and Islands in the China Sea. It didn't stop Russia or China. Destroyers in other nations are their capital ships and have smaller escorts. American destroyers don't have escorts, they are escorts. A carrier fleet would send a message. One carrier and it's battlegroup has hundreds of missiles and an air force stronger than most nations have.

Some people talk of sanctions. Haven't worked. Never worked. To stop guns you have to use guns. You don't have to go to war but putting enough guns in the area my discourage war.
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on November 26, 2018, 04:31:12 PM
http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7828639/ukraine-set-to-impose-martial-law-amid-fears-of-fresh-conflict-with-russia-after-kremlin-fires-on-ships-and-captures-sailors/

there shall be war, and rumors of war
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: BillyB on November 26, 2018, 04:54:41 PM

Russia is testing Ukraine with movement of troops and hostilities at sea to see their reaction. Russia is gathering intelligence to see how prepared Ukraine is and what they would do if there was an invasion. They want to see how the rest of the world reacts pertaining to this incident too. They'll be able to factor the risks vs rewards.
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: LAman on November 26, 2018, 05:16:37 PM
http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7828639/ukraine-set-to-impose-martial-law-amid-fears-of-fresh-conflict-with-russia-after-kremlin-fires-on-ships-and-captures-sailors/

there shall be war, and rumors of war


Yea, right. Talk is cheap. Going through the motions based on possibilities.


Impending Russian invasion??? Yea, been hearing that for 4 1/2 years now. A thorn in the side, yes.
Title: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on November 26, 2018, 06:43:37 PM
Obama sent single destroyers into the Black Sea and Islands in the China Sea. It didn't stop Russia or China. Destroyers in other nations are their capital ships and have smaller escorts. American destroyers don't have escorts, they are escorts. A carrier fleet would send a message. One carrier and it's battlegroup has hundreds of missiles and an air force stronger than most nations have.

Some people talk of sanctions. Haven't worked. Never worked. To stop guns you have to use guns. You don't have to go to war but putting enough guns in the area my discourage war.

You're definitely correct that an aircraft carrier fleet and escorts sailing into the Azov Sea would send a more definite message to Putin than a single or multiple destroyers. However, I've been told by several retired US Navy officers that the movements of aircraft carriers and their escorts are planned several years in advance and unless there's a genuine emergency changing those orders is very difficult.

That being said according to the US Navy, CNV-75 Harry S. Truman is currently in the Med. It probably wouldn't be too difficult to reroute it to the Azov Sea. Have Trump tweet that he's ordered the Harry S. Truman to make a port call at Mariupol, Ukraine. Have a couple of dozen of Truman's fighter jets doing flight exercises while in the Azov Sea.

Could something the size of a US aircraft carrier pass under the bridge linking Russia and Crimea? Is there sufficient depth in the narrows around the bridge. With only one way in and out of the Azov Sea would sailing an American aircraft and its escorts into the area be a wise move? Trump might have to settle for making a port call in Odesa.

Putin would be apoplectic if it happened and it would be hard to say Putin had any control over Trump after something like that.

http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 26, 2018, 10:16:01 PM
The carrier based group would not enter the Black Sea let alone the Azov Sea.It would sit much further south -not far from where it is now . Much as I would love to see the carrier knocking Putins bridge down ( it would be way to large to pass underneath) there is no possibility of that happening.

Sending a single destroyer would be enough -- that would be making a statement -- and -- the carrier group is in effect - backing it up.

Anyone who has witnessed history will tell you that sending an un-protected destroyer through a pair of defended shores is not something that the US navy would ever consider.   If the US were to make a move, it is much more likely that the current naval complement in the Black Sea would be increased (substantially) and would probably be comprised of naval vessels from more NATO countries than just the United States.

The importance of a gesture ( like I would like to see ) is that it can be implemented fast --  it is not about the technical aspects of a battle -- but a statement to Putin that he is not going to get his own way over this -- or any extended plan that is in the making.

A lot of you guys here have a very different view to me of Trump-- and -- his compromised personal situation over Russia will see an inadequate response   -- so let us see what he DOES here.Personally --my advice is  that if he wants to get respect from Russia --stand on the Russians throats now and show some  strength -- that will get him a lot further than his namby pamby  c... sucking attitude he has displayed so far.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 26, 2018, 10:42:30 PM

Will the west ever wake up? This is a  much need opportunity to react in the strongest possible way--  and not with finger waving ! It needs a fast --very clear statement -- and I do not mean token words.
The west can help itself if it faces up to this.


In this dark hour, where are Ukraine’s allies?


Faced with overt and undeniable Russian military aggression, tantamount to a declaration of war by all reasonable interpretations of international law, Ukraine’s allies have so far failed to respond in an adequate way.

For all the talk of upholding Ukrainian sovereignty and defending its territorial integrity, supporting European integration and the importance of Ukraine as NATO’s eastern flank: what are Ukraine’s allies doing, when it really matters?

It takes 30 seconds and 90 characters to issue a strongly-worded condemnation on Twitter. It’s easy, quick and it has almost no value.

But for every single G7 country and NATO member state, it’s all they’ve been able to muster so far, after Russia attacked Ukrainian navy vessels in neutral waters, gunned down, wounded and captured their sailors and illegally seized their vessels on Nov. 25.

Warning about the prospect of further aggression from Russia, even a full-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine as tanks, troops and aircraft reportedly mass near the Ukrainian border, lawmakers in Kyiv put in place martial law on Nov. 26 and the fear and uncertainty here in the Ukrainian capital is palpable.

And still, Western leaders seem incapable or unwilling to do little more than draft strongly-worded statements. As Europe’s largest country comes under attack, the silence from the leaders of Ukraine’s most important allied countries is absolutely deafening.

And Moscow is grinning from ear to ear as they pay close attention to such a weak response.


http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/jack-laurenson-in-this-dark-hour-where-are-ukraines-allies.html


Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on November 26, 2018, 11:15:02 PM
Will the west ever wake up? This is a  much need opportunity to react in the strongest possible way--  and not with finger waving ! It needs a fast --very clear statement -- and I do not mean token words.
The west can help itself if it faces up to this.


In this dark hour, where are Ukraine’s allies?


Faced with overt and undeniable Russian military aggression, tantamount to a declaration of war by all reasonable interpretations of international law, Ukraine’s allies have so far failed to respond in an adequate way.

For all the talk of upholding Ukrainian sovereignty and defending its territorial integrity, supporting European integration and the importance of Ukraine as NATO’s eastern flank: what are Ukraine’s allies doing, when it really matters?

It takes 30 seconds and 90 characters to issue a strongly-worded condemnation on Twitter. It’s easy, quick and it has almost no value.

But for every single G7 country and NATO member state, it’s all they’ve been able to muster so far, after Russia attacked Ukrainian navy vessels in neutral waters, gunned down, wounded and captured their sailors and illegally seized their vessels on Nov. 25.

Warning about the prospect of further aggression from Russia, even a full-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine as tanks, troops and aircraft reportedly mass near the Ukrainian border, lawmakers in Kyiv put in place martial law on Nov. 26 and the fear and uncertainty here in the Ukrainian capital is palpable.

And still, Western leaders seem incapable or unwilling to do little more than draft strongly-worded statements. As Europe’s largest country comes under attack, the silence from the leaders of Ukraine’s most important allied countries is absolutely deafening.

And Moscow is grinning from ear to ear as they pay close attention to such a weak response.


http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/jack-laurenson-in-this-dark-hour-where-are-ukraines-allies.html

I doubt any country in the G7 or Europe for that matter will do anything serious on their own unless the USA takes the first step. Germany does a lot of trade with Russia and has helped finance a northern pipeline route from Russia to Germany.

The UK has its own problems with Brexit and certainly has not taken up any leadership role Europe says the US had abandoned. France and Italy wouldn't know what to do if either country was being invaded by Russia so looking to them for significant leadership is a lost cause. 

Canada has condemned the Russian aggression and called on Russia to release the vessels and crew. Europeans are criticizing the US for getting involved in foreign wars and here Russia, a European country is literally seizing Ukrainian military vessels in international waters and invading Ukraine and all the European countries are doing is saying some moderately inoffensive condemnations.

Once again the world looks to the US for guidance.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-condemns-russia-experts-divided-1.4921772
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: jone on November 27, 2018, 12:06:50 AM
Geeze,

I guess one has to understand that if Russia controls both sides of the strait, which they do (although the Crimean side is not recognized by almost anyone but Russia) and the strait is only 15 km wide at its widest, how are these international waters?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: GQBlues on November 27, 2018, 01:09:07 AM

In this dark hour, where are Ukraine’s allies?

Oh the drama! Ukraine’s allies? I thought it was a grassroot movement?

Anyway Jay, where’s Australia and YOUR leaders? Too busy chasing kangaroos? Heck why don’t YOU sign up with Ukraine’s military and show Putin how you really feel instead of throwing hissyfits on message boards. LMAO! You’re too fu#&ng funny, man!

‘Dark hour’ lol sheeesh. When Iran, under Obama, seized two US naval ships, there were no ‘dark hour’ hysterics, man. No ‘allies’ around either. No. Those allies were too busy cutting the fat off the Obama/Kerry hog of a deal.

The US is fine now (http://amp.businessinsider.com/iran-humiliated-us-navy-obama-stopped-under-trump-2018-3) and I hope we don’t get dragged into any of this mess grassroot movement. We understand how the benevolent and saintly international community, especially our trusted ‘allies’, feel about US hegemonic adventures. Right? I’d hate to see those ‘No Blood For Oil!’ placards again.

Try Macron. See what he’s up to these days.

Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Belvis on November 27, 2018, 03:38:07 AM
You're definitely correct that an aircraft carrier fleet and escorts sailing into the Azov Sea would send a more definite message to Putin than a single or multiple destroyers.
Some technical info to restrict the speculations.

1. Aircraft carriers are not allowed the passage in Black Sea by Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the straits. Only if Turkey will get involved in the war against Russia. Though it can be settled at the expense of huge benefits for Turkey, I guess.

2. A standard american aircraft carrier has а height of about 60 m above water, and a draft under water 11-12 m. The ship has to sail in the Azov sea from Black Sea under Crimean bridge which has 35 m clearance  space below. Probably the carrier can sacrifice its superstructure and break into. After that the carrier will strike aground because the average depth in the Azov Sea is around 7 m.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 27, 2018, 04:32:29 AM
Ok serious question now, sorry I was just f*cking with you guys earlier ;D Didn't mean to upset anyone who might have family/relatives in Ukraine. Of course there is more to this situation than just the western guy angle. However, while Ukrainians face a potentially more dangerous situation than western men on the outside I think there are still lesser but for us still issues for us to understand, namely:

1). What does martial law mean for Ukrainians in the effected areas?

2). Is the period of martial law likely to be extended?

3). Does the areas under martial law make these areas no go areas for western men to visit their women?

Unfortunately while I wish the west would directly get involved to help out Ukraine, I don't think any country will do.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: BdHvA on November 27, 2018, 06:36:06 AM
Some technical info to restrict the speculations.

1. Aircraft carriers are not allowed the passage in Black Sea by Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the straits. Only if Turkey will get involved in the war against Russia. Though it can be settled at the expense of huge benefits for Turkey, I guess.

2. A standard american aircraft carrier has а height of about 60 m above water, and a draft under water 11-12 m. The ship has to sail in the Azov sea from Black Sea under Crimean bridge which has 35 m clearance  space below. Probably the carrier can sacrifice its superstructure and break into. After that the carrier will strike aground because the average depth in the Azov Sea is around 7 m.

A light of common sense in a sea of fog.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on November 27, 2018, 08:59:54 AM
Some technical info to restrict the speculations.

1. Aircraft carriers are not allowed the passage in Black Sea by Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the straits. Only if Turkey will get involved in the war against Russia. Though it can be settled at the expense of huge benefits for Turkey, I guess.

2. A standard american aircraft carrier has а height of about 60 m above water, and a draft under water 11-12 m. The ship has to sail in the Azov sea from Black Sea under Crimean bridge which has 35 m clearance  space below. Probably the carrier can sacrifice its superstructure and break into. After that the carrier will strike aground because the average depth in the Azov Sea is around 7 m.

Much smaller US Navy ships have been in the Black Sea this year. From the article.

Quote
On Saturday the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney joined the USS Ross in the Black Sea to "conduct maritime security operations," according to a statement from the US Navy's 6th Fleet, which oversees US naval operations in the region. It's the first time two US Navy warships have been in the Black Sea since July 2017.

Since the draft of an Arleight Burke class destroyer is close to 10 meters it couldn't travel through the Azov Sea. However, I'm sure a port call to Odesa by a few American Navy vessels capable of traveling in the Black Sea would send a message to Putin.

http://www.cnn.com/2018/02/19/politics/us-russia-black-sea-show-of-force/index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arleigh_Burke-class_destroyer
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: BillyB on November 27, 2018, 09:32:28 AM
1. Aircraft carriers are not allowed the passage in Black Sea by Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the straits.


Montreux Convention doesn't name aircraft carriers as a class of ship that can pass through the straits but it also doesn't name aircraft carriers as ships that can't pass through. It's a grey area.

Reagan, a president with balls, puts an aircraft carrier in the in the Black Sea in 1988 to make a big statement. Below video shows a Soviet ship ramming the carrier.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SME4w037FgA
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: BdHvA on November 27, 2018, 10:09:03 AM
It is not a grey area.

A foreign Naval vessel may not have more than 15,000 tons Dead Weight to pass thru the Bosporus. Aircraft carriers now a days weigh + +  20,000 DW. On a regular basis 'foreign' naval vessels visit the Black Sea. There is a system (convention) that has been in place for almost a 100 years. It works.

Also there are two conventions or understandings one for the Black Sea, the other for the Sea of Azov. The Sea of Azov is not part of the Black Sea, but rather a tributary with separate rules and conventions.

Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on November 27, 2018, 10:25:21 AM
It is not a grey area.

A foreign Naval vessel may not have more than 15,000 tons Dead Weight to pass thru the Bosporus. Aircraft carriers now a days weigh + +  20,000 DW. On a regular basis 'foreign' naval vessels visit the Black Sea. There is a system (convention) that has been in place for almost a 100 years. It works.

Also there are two conventions or understandings one for the Black Sea, the other for the Sea of Azov. The Sea of Azov is not part of the Black Sea, but rather a tributary with separate rules and conventions.


I'm not arguing the point. If the limit for passage through the Bosphorus is 15,000 tons DW then the US Navy has a number of ships in its fleet that could go into the Black Sea. Destroyers and cruisers seem to max out at under 10,000 tons DW. Then of course there's all the subs.

Having a half dozen or so US Navy ships sailing around the Black Sea for a few weeks might give Putin pause. Probably not but maybe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_ships_of_the_United_States_Navy#Commissioned
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 27, 2018, 12:01:02 PM

A light of common sense in a sea of fog.


What?you did not see my summary a day ago?

The carrier based group would not enter the Black Sea let alone the Azov Sea.It would sit much further south -not far from where it is now . Much as I would love to see the carrier knocking Putins bridge down ( it would be way to large to pass underneath) there is no possibility of that happening.

Sending a single destroyer would be enough -- that would be making a statement -- and -- the carrier group is in effect - backing it up.


Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 27, 2018, 12:05:35 PM
Paint it any way you like -- there are many observers who see it the same way.


Russia’s latest attack on the Ukrainians is a warning to the West


Finally, the timing may be linked to international politics. Britain, one of the countries that has been most adamant about sanctions on Russia, is right now turning inward for a monumental battle over its withdrawal from the European Union; there isn’t much political bandwidth in London to worry about Ukraine. President Trump’s administration is divided, distracted and preparing to contend with Democrats in the upcoming House majority who will, among other things, investigate his past ties to Russia. The E.U., Canada and even Poland came out with official statements condemning the Russian actions long before anything was heard from the United States. On Monday evening Kiev time, the State Department had still not reacted to the events in the Kerch Strait. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s denunciation of Russia’s “outlaw actions” came many hours after the other statements.

Whatever the other motives for this staged attack, this kind of passivity may well be what the Russians are counting on. This is the modus operandi they have followed in the past: Take a few steps forward; wait for a reaction. If there isn’t one, move farther. If there is one, wait for the emotions to die down — and then move farther. This incident may or may not end here, but consider it a warning: If we don’t have a broader strategy for ending this war, that will be the pattern for years to come.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/russias-latest-attack-on-the-ukrainians-is-a-warning-to-the-west/2018/11/26/5c1f3634-f1b6-11e8-aeea-b85fd44449f5_story.html?utm_term=.68739d34e703

Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 27, 2018, 09:23:42 PM
The link below is a good summary .
The reasons why international action is required by placing US/NATO/western countries ships into this equation and forcing the situation that way is that it will stop Russian escalation plans --it can prove to easily take the heat out of the situation and thwart Putins intentions.
Of note -- some have repeatedly written of the Russian intentions over Ukraine and time is not working in Russia's favour  as Ukraine moves further away everyday .
Put a US destroyer right in the  hot spot in the Black Sea -- and take whatever action is required to support it! :)


Herbst says Russia wants to provoke Ukraine as excuse for more military action


 Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst believes that the attack by Russian forces against Ukrainian Navy vessels on Nov. 25 was intended to provoke Kyiv into a strong military response that would give Moscow a pretext for a larger attack on Ukraine.

He said that, by showing restraint and limiting its response to largely diplomatic activity, Kyiv “can turn a Russian tactical victory into a strategic defeat.”
http://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/herbst-says-russia-wants-to-provoke-ukraine-as-excuse-for-more-military-action.html

Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on November 28, 2018, 08:27:17 AM
"Number of Russian tanks near border with Ukraine has tripled"

http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/2589229-number-of-russian-tanks-near-border-with-ukraine-has-tripled-poroshenko.html

Russia has recently deployed anti-ship missiles in Northern Crimea
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: jone on November 28, 2018, 09:51:33 AM
Trump was supposed to get together with Putin at the upcoming G20 summit.  However, there are signals from the White House that he may skip the meeting to protest the Ukrainian ship seizure.  Putin is getting very good at playing the odd man out due to his country's continued harassment of its neighbors and NATO countries.   I guess if a country has a weak economy and poor infrastructure, there really isn't another play, is there?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 28, 2018, 07:05:55 PM
The Ukraine needs either Nato, the US or the UK to station a significant amount of tanks, troops, jets & other hardware on its soil. Russia won't invade if it becomes obvious that it will draw in another major power it will be too much bother for them. Otherwise Ukraine looks ripe for an easy invasion and Putin will take advantage of the current to date lack of visible commitment to assist Ukraine by western powers beyond sanctions. I don't think sanctions will save Ukraine, I think Putin is after all of its territory to bring Ukraine into an enlarged Russia as part of its territory again. The west need to send in forces to stop this easy land grab by Putin.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Blighty on November 29, 2018, 01:31:56 AM
The Ukraine needs either Nato, the US or the UK to station a significant amount of tanks, troops, jets & other hardware on its soil. Russia won't invade if it becomes obvious that it will draw in another major power it will be too much bother for them. Otherwise Ukraine looks ripe for an easy invasion and Putin will take advantage of the current to date lack of visible commitment to assist Ukraine by western powers beyond sanctions. I don't think sanctions will save Ukraine, I think Putin is after all of its territory to bring Ukraine into an enlarged Russia as part of its territory again. The west need to send in forces to stop this easy land grab by Putin.

The West has still not learned from meddling in regions outside their sphere of influence ... look at the resulting chaos in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Loyalties are split in eastern Ukraine, and so your proposed solution would be unwelcome to many Ukrainians.

Poroshenko is an unpopular and useless President who has done nothing to unite his country. You need to understand the Russian psyche about being attacked 3 times by western countries. I have met plenty of older Ukrainians who still prefer Moscow to Kiev. Poroshenko's decision to celebrate Bandera has upset both Poles and Ukrainians, and underlines his lack of credibility.

There are always two sides to every argument!
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 29, 2018, 09:19:48 AM
The Ukraine needs either Nato, the US or the UK to station a significant amount of tanks, troops, jets & other hardware on its soil. Russia won't invade if it becomes obvious that it will draw in another major power it will be too much bother for them. Otherwise Ukraine looks ripe for an easy invasion and Putin will take advantage of the current to date lack of visible commitment to assist Ukraine by western powers beyond sanctions. I don't think sanctions will save Ukraine, I think Putin is after all of its territory to bring Ukraine into an enlarged Russia as part of its territory again. The west need to send in forces to stop this easy land grab by Putin.

It will not happen like that --but --this is the most sensible post TC has ever made /

By way of contrast --  after seeing a bit of the BBC's incredibly  ignorant "experts" just plain wrong comments about Ukraine and "rebels" in the east and more in summary of what just happened in the Kerch Strait  and now this below -- I can only presume Blighty is a rua refugee but still watching the RT  Russian propaganda for his news--

The West has still not learned from meddling in regions outside their sphere of influence ... look at the resulting chaos in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Loyalties are split in eastern Ukraine, and so your proposed solution would be unwelcome to many Ukrainians.

Poroshenko is an unpopular and useless President who has done nothing to unite his country. You need to understand the Russian psyche about being attacked 3 times by western countries. I have met plenty of older Ukrainians who still prefer Moscow to Kiev. Poroshenko's decision to celebrate Bandera has upset both Poles and Ukrainians, and underlines his lack of credibility.

There are always two sides to every argument!


The only meddling being done in Ukraine is by Russia -- as it attempts to destabilise  the country
AND -the large majority -the VERY large majority want to be free of Russia
Help from the west is not and would not be unwelcome -- a completely nonsense comment
LOYALTIES ARE NOT SPLIT -- ARE VERY LARGE MAJORITY WANT A UNITED COMPLETE UKRAINE
Not accurate on Poroshenko-not even close
You have met older Ukrainians?  mmmm that would be your wife's family or whatever-correct? I am guessing you wrote much the same 4years ago on the forum( the other place) !!  It was wrong then and even more wrong now

2 sides?   pathetic piece of rationalisation for the misguided rubbish you just posted that reflects Russian propaganda-- not what Ukrainians think or believe

And worse when you consider TC got it mostly right and a guy who ought to know better is still being sucked under by Russian propaganda cannot get even close to reality-- after how many years?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: GQBlues on November 29, 2018, 09:53:54 AM
The West has still not learned from meddling in regions outside their sphere of influence ... look at the resulting chaos in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Loyalties are split in eastern Ukraine, and so your proposed solution would be unwelcome to many Ukrainians.

Agree completely!

Quote
..Poroshenko is an unpopular and useless President who has done nothing to unite his country. You need to understand the Russian psyche about being attacked 3 times by western countries. I have met plenty of older Ukrainians who still prefer Moscow to Kiev. Poroshenko's decision to celebrate Bandera has upset both Poles and Ukrainians, and underlines his lack of credibility...

It was supposed to be 'grass root', so I reckon wherever this leads to for Ukraine, it's Ukraine's business alone.

Quote
..There are always two sides to every argument!

In that part of the world, at least 4-5 sides. Even then, one is still not sure.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on November 29, 2018, 10:00:31 AM
straight outa Krim,

first up,
word goes out to Belbeck shock battalion
whose recent operation of mass car theft and fake license tags
abandoned in a coordinated fashion at every Western Ukrainian highway border crossing was a huge success on both days!

congrats guys!  what did you use for the fake explosives?

second, calm down on the war hysteria!

100% Putin will NOT attack until the end of 2019 when Nord Stream 2 is finished!
At that point, Putin can literally cut off Ukraine 100% from the gas supply and still transport to Europe.

If Putin attacks now, he will almost certainly have to shut down the gas supply to Europe, costing him Billions $$$

After Putin has a monopoly on gas supply to Europe, a lot of which is used for electrical power generation, Putin can demand whatever he wants from European politicians, including a higher price and acceptance of redrawing the map of Ukraine and Russia and elimination of sanctions.

In Russia, Putin will be a big hero, the bringer of water to Crimea
and remember folks,

it’s NOT about invading Ukraine!
no, it’s about uniting slavic brothers! (begin playing patriotic marching song)

PS
it's possible that as a consequence of the recent naval encounter, that the Sea of Azov will be off limits to Ukrainian shipping
in essence, Putin has grabbed another little piece of Ukraine...

so I want to go on record now
and tell all the westerners living in or owning property in Ukraine
unless you are in the north western part of Ukraine, sometime within the next 4 years, you're going to be living in Russia!
plan ahead accordingly
and I'm a guy who used to live in Crimea who saw this exact same thing coming 10 years ago
IT'S WHY I LEFT!!!!








Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: ML on November 29, 2018, 11:20:37 AM
so I want to go on record now
and tell all the westerners living in or owning property in Ukraine
unless you are in the north western part of Ukraine, sometime within the next 4 years, you're going to be living in Russia!
plan ahead accordingly
and I'm a guy who used to live in Crimea who saw this exact same thing coming 10 years ago
IT'S WHY I LEFT!!!!

So far I have refused to learn Ukrainian. 
Will that mean I must then refuse to learn Russian?

Should wife offer her Kyiv properties for sale now, or wait a while longer?

She has some properties west of Kyiv also.
How far west in Ukraine must one live to be safe?

Will we have to allow Putin to stay rent free in her properties while he is vacationing in the area?

Will he want fishing rights also?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 29, 2018, 11:46:08 AM
The linked article is self explanatory.
An interesting aside to Trump admin --  regardless of what the Trump motives to cosy up to Russia were -- most of those who were in his ear and now proven as compromised and tried to remove sanctions/change policy etc in regard to Russia are now gone -- and replaced with hawks towards  Russia .Maybe they can push Trump in a more sensible direction.
If I was advising Trump-- I would make the point that standing over Putin will get his attention and respect-- being a wet blanket and Putin will continue laughing at you ! That ought to appeal too the Trump ego !


US, allies must check Putin’s latest move against Ukraine


Ukraine is on the front lines of defense against Russia’s pernicious espionage, military, cyber and economic attacks. The time is ripe for U.S. leadership, and Ukraine’s sovereignty is where we should draw and enforce a red line.

http://thehill.com/opinion/international/418633-us-allies-must-check-putins-latest-move-against-ukraine
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 29, 2018, 11:52:17 AM
So far I have refused to learn Ukrainian. 
Will that mean I must then refuse to learn Russian?



Did you see the Captain of one of the Ukrainian ships  when appearing in the Russian court said he needed an interpreter to understand the proceedings as he did not speak Russian !1and only speaks Ukrainian !

ML -the serious side of all this is that this is the start of the next stage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine -- and it will go as far as Putin can get away with it.

My view is that this is by far the most dangerous period Ukraine has faced -- and if the west does nothing --Putin will proceed
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Boethius on November 29, 2018, 11:55:02 AM
Did you see the Captain of one of the Ukrainian ships  when appearing in the Russian court said he needed an interpreter to understand the proceedings as he did not speak Russian !1and only speaks Ukrainian !


That is extremely unlikely, unless he is (a) from Western Ukraine AND (b) under 30.  It's more about making a point.


This post was composed without the aid of google.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 29, 2018, 11:56:51 AM

That is extremely unlikely, unless he is (a) from Western Ukraine AND (b) under 30.  It's more about making a point.

Exactly
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on November 29, 2018, 12:08:58 PM
“So far I have refused to learn Ukrainian.
Will that mean I must then refuse to learn Russian?”


nope, if Russia takes over you won’t have to learn Russian, cuz unless you do all the new Russian legal documentation and it gets “approved" you won’t own property there any more, and will mean your wife better apply for Russian citizenship BTW...
this is what’s happened/happening to huge numbers in Crimea





“Should wife offer her Kyiv properties for sale now, or wait a while longer?”

you should start digging a trench to protect your property, put up a good fight!!!!!




“She has some properties west of Kyiv also.
How far west in Ukraine must one live to be safe?”

Is the oblast you own property in currently under martial law?
if yes, then it’ll be Russian
if no, then Ukrainian
this is about how it’ll work out in the end




“Will we have to allow Putin to stay rent free in her properties while he is vacationing in the area?

what do you mean, according to court records your property ownership was recently transferred under Russian District court order to someone with a Moscow address!



Will he want fishing rights also?

would you seriously even consider depriving him of this?


Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on November 29, 2018, 12:09:45 PM


US, allies must check Putin’s latest move against Ukraine


Ukraine is on the front lines of defense against Russia’s pernicious espionage, military, cyber and economic attacks. The time is ripe for U.S. leadership, and Ukraine’s sovereignty is where we should draw and enforce a red line.

http://thehill.com/opinion/international/418633-us-allies-must-check-putins-latest-move-against-ukraine

Right now the country that has the most power to use against Russia is Germany, not the US. If Germany were to say that Nord Stream 2 is dead because of Putin's actions in Ukraine that would be far more devastating to Putin than anything the US could do economically.

Of course Europe being Europe, meaning they're incapable of action unless the US leads, are waiting for Trump to take the lead. Why doesn't Germany step up and take the lead?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: GQBlues on November 29, 2018, 12:10:28 PM
...If I was advising Trump

Thank good ness for small favors you don't.

You should instead advise your own PM and country. The impotency of you and your government in world's affair is no one else's business. Just as Ukraine's affair are their own and no one else's.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 29, 2018, 01:32:42 PM
I disagree that Ukraine's affairs are their own. The same attitude led Hitler to overun much of Europe unchallenged. Sooo much easier to stop an aggressor from taking territory on the first place than have to go through all of it fighting to free it bit by bit. Ukraine has made it clear that they do not wish to be in Russia's sphere of influence. Complacently terming Ukraine under the old rules of the Soviet Union just makes it easy pickings for Russia. I'm sure Ukraine would more than welcome the intervention of western forces and invite us onto their territory to help them out.

I wonder if there is much initiative within Ukrainian expats in western countries to form Lobby groups to press for their countries to take action in sending forces to station in Ukraine.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 29, 2018, 01:45:30 PM
I disagree that Ukraine's affairs are their own. The same attitude led Hitler to overun much of Europe unchallenged. Sooo much easier to stop an aggressor from taking territory on the first place than have to go through all of it fighting to free it bit by bit. Ukraine has made it clear that they do not wish to be in Russia's sphere of influence. Complacently terming Ukraine under the old rules of the Soviet Union just makes it easy pickings for Russia. I'm sure Ukraine would more than welcome the intervention of western forces and invite us onto their territory to help them out.

I wonder if there is much initiative within Ukrainian expats in western countries to form Lobby groups to press for their countries to take action in sending forces to station in Ukraine.


There are quite a few nations assisting Ukraine in training troops. More recently the push has been to train special forces & specialised troops.
There has been quite an effort by those with an interest in Ukraine to "lobby" numerous western governments and try and get the real facts known and get assistance for Ukraine .The big problem is that the US needs to be at the centre -- and history shows others will assist if that is the case.
It does not help when organisations like the BBC keep using the terms separatists and rebels to describe the Russians who have invaded Ukraine and keep quoting Moscow based journalists on Ukraine affairs.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Blighty on November 29, 2018, 02:17:51 PM
It does not help when organisations like the BBC keep using the terms separatists and rebels to describe the Russians who have invaded Ukraine and keep quoting Moscow based journalists on Ukraine affairs.

Perhaps the label 'Neo-Nazi' does not help their image! Of course that is all due to the Russian-controlled Guardian newspaper with articles such as

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/23/ukrainian-far-right-groups-violence-kiev-pravy-sektor
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/12/ukraine-government-armed-standoff-right-sector-militia
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/02/neo-nazi-groups-recruit-britons-to-fight-in-ukraine
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/13/ukraine-far-right-national-militia-takes-law-into-own-hands-neo-nazi-links

Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: rwd123 on November 29, 2018, 02:48:30 PM
so I want to go on record now
and tell all the westerners living in or owning property in Ukraine
unless you are in the north western part of Ukraine, sometime within the next 4 years, you're going to be living in Russia!
I toyed with the idea of buying an apartment in Odessa - you can get a nice place for 50,000USD or less with ongoings of ~1,000USD/year, but am baulking at the idea for this exact reason.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: rwd123 on November 29, 2018, 02:59:19 PM
So far I have refused to learn Ukrainian. 
Will that mean I must then refuse to learn Russian?

Should wife offer her Kyiv properties for sale now, or wait a while longer?

She has some properties west of Kyiv also.
How far west in Ukraine must one live to be safe?
Which side of the Dnieper River are her properties? East bank may become Russian!

Western Ukraine should be ok, but that's not say their values with not decrease. If Russia shuts off gas transit there goes 5-6% of GDP. If it takes Sea of Azov and Odessa there goes shipping and a large percentage of exports. The economy will be decimated. The country continues to be looted by corruption too.

When I was in Lviv I wasn't sure if it was better to speak English (people may not understand) or Russian (people may not like it) - so I ended up trying to combine them!

Russia will (attempt to) take more of Ukraine as part of its territories as the Ukrainian military is depleted and there is no will from Europe or the USA to really get involved other than to make money. The only hope the Ukrainian people have is a leader that unites the country and is less corrupt than any the country has had over the last 30 years. Timoshenko is far from that and likely to be the next president.

Ukraine is Poland of the 21st century. It is screwed.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Chelseaboy on November 29, 2018, 04:19:25 PM
Well,

       Sky news is now making the situation in Ukraine their main headline..even above Brexit.

They have confirmed that Trump has cancelled his planned meeting with Mad Vlad because of the Russians actions .

Poroshenko has given an interview to Sky news,showing them photo's of the alleged Russian Tanks building-up near the Ukraine border and asking the whole of the west ( including Australia..Jay ..he mentioned your country as well as the normal suspects) to unite against Russia.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 29, 2018, 07:47:32 PM
If there's a massive tank build up then Russia is likely to invade soon. It tends to be expensive to locate such a large force in to an area. I'm guessing with not a great economy Putin will not want to waste that cost of doing so. If he waits it gives time for Ukraine to try and build up forces to counter and dig in more so were greater help forthcoming.

The gas to Ukraine is probably of little concern to Putin. Most of the time a lot of it went unpaid, pipelite syphon ed,  etc. Plus if he invades he can still sell the gas to Ukrainians, it doesn't stop that. That only stops if Ukrainian and stop a Russian advance which is probably unlikely. I think Ukraine could cause significant damage potentially due to the training up and better equipment it has been getting but I think they'll lack the army size to win against Russia not to metikn much loss of territory during a conflict will hamper their ability to access needed resources.

Gas sales are likely to be far higher during winter. This may not bother Putin too much. Spring as Krimster previously suggested would make strategic sense but with modern warfare equipment Putin may prefer to get straight to it and mount a winter offensive within hours, days, weeks - who knows.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: southernX on November 29, 2018, 09:04:11 PM
Quote
so I want to go on record now
and tell all the westerners living in or owning property in Ukraine
unless you are in the north western part of Ukraine, sometime within the next 4 years, you're going to be living in Russia!
plan ahead accordingly
and I'm a guy who used to live in Crimea who saw this exact same thing coming 10 years ago
IT'S WHY I LEFT!!!!

this i agree with
highly likly to occur in the present world situation , there is no cohesive leadership or strategy  to deal with putin ,

all the major players are focused on internal issues


china is also causing a nice diversion locally

its a prime time to strike
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: msmob on November 30, 2018, 12:02:42 AM
If there's a massive tank build up then Russia is likely to invade soon. It tends to be expensive to locate such a large force in to an area. I'm guessing with not a great economy Putin will not want to waste that cost of doing so. If he waits it gives time for Ukraine to try and build up forces to counter and dig in more so were greater help forthcoming.

The gas to Ukraine is probably of little concern to Putin. Most of the time a lot of it went unpaid, pipelite syphon ed,  etc. Plus if he invades he can still sell the gas to Ukrainians, it doesn't stop that. That only stops if Ukrainian and stop a Russian advance which is probably unlikely. I think Ukraine could cause significant damage potentially due to the training up and better equipment it has been getting but I think they'll lack the army size to win against Russia not to metikn much loss of territory during a conflict will hamper their ability to access needed resources.

Gas sales are likely to be far higher during winter. This may not bother Putin too much. Spring as Krimster previously suggested would make strategic sense but with modern warfare equipment Putin may prefer to get straight to it and mount a winter offensive within hours, days, weeks - who knows.

OK Trenchie,

Are we going to add militarily inept to to your skills re dating and 'knowledge' of any detrimental effect of 'brexit' - every time the Ruskies wind up Ukraine ?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35532842 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35532842) from 2016

For sure, the seizure of 3 UA vessels, capturing of UA personnel and their 'confessions' on RU tv are provocative




 


Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 30, 2018, 01:58:53 AM
I don't say action should be taken because I'm pro Ukrainian & anti-Russian, I'm not. I'm pragmatic on where I date rather than biased towards a particular nation through personal liking or whatever. Even if I were dating a girl in Russia or Ukraine I wouldn't let that colour my judgement. I've been to Moscow and it's a fair enough city & people to date & maintain relations with.

Thing is Mobers an invasion of Ukraine could be bad for all of us on here. It could bring down a new Iron Curtain with Russia, Ukraine & Belarus behind it and WM all stuck on the outside. An invasion could spell a new cold war with Visa bans on travel to Russia & vice versa to all western nations. They might also ban their citizens from moving abroad, marrying WM, etc. If Ukraine is invaded it will become a part of Russia and if Lucashenko becomes unsteady or gets toppled in Belarus, Russia will move in there too.

I really do think that NATO moving into Ukraine would be thd best response, it's what it was set up for. It would steady the situation and probably help bring a resolution to the table of tge present problem areas in Ukraine. I for one don't really see the point of NATO existing with pristine hardware sat around doing nothing but to give it a polish every now and again. It's an appropriate response to the situation that I think would help bring a civilised nature to the region.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Chelseaboy on November 30, 2018, 03:05:09 AM
Ukraine has now banned Russian men aged 16-60 from entering the country.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: rwd123 on November 30, 2018, 03:38:02 AM
Ukraine has now banned Russian men aged 16-60 from entering the country.
It seems Russia won't go tit for tat as they did with direct airline flights.

http://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-bans-russian-men-from-entering-ukraine-escalating-crisis/29629790.html

This is a fairly major escalation. I'm guessing there's plenty of Russian businessmen who will need to make alternative arrangements so am curious how it impacts both Russian and Ukrainian businesses.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Nightwish on November 30, 2018, 04:39:02 AM
I don't say action should be taken because I'm pro Ukrainian & anti-Russian, I'm not. I'm pragmatic on where I date rather than biased towards a particular nation through personal liking or whatever. Even if I were dating a girl in Russia or Ukraine I wouldn't let that colour my judgement. I've been to Moscow and it's a fair enough city & people to date & maintain relations with.

Thing is Mobers an invasion of Ukraine could be bad for all of us on here. It could bring down a new Iron Curtain with Russia, Ukraine & Belarus behind it and WM all stuck on the outside. An invasion could spell a new cold war with Visa bans on travel to Russia & vice versa to all western nations. They might also ban their citizens from moving abroad, marrying WM, etc. If Ukraine is invaded it will become a part of Russia and if Lucashenko becomes unsteady or gets toppled in Belarus, Russia will move in there too.

I really do think that NATO moving into Ukraine would be thd best response, it's what it was set up for. It would steady the situation and probably help bring a resolution to the table of tge present problem areas in Ukraine. I for one don't really see the point of NATO existing with pristine hardware sat around doing nothing but to give it a polish every now and again. It's an appropriate response to the situation that I think would help bring a civilised nature to the region.

I wasn't aware Ukraine was a member of NATO?  Is this new and unknown to the public information you provide? or.. You don't really know what NATO is about? How would an invasion on Ukraine (who is not a memberstate) trigger article 5?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on November 30, 2018, 05:56:33 AM
Some earlier posts alluded to the Russian actions being legal --where by any interpretation of reality it is clear one illegal action upon another.
What should happen -- the Russians ought to be told that no one recognises Crimean waters as Russian territory -- and any attempt to interfere with anyone will be met by lethal force.
Call every Russian bluff -- and be prepared to flatten every air base and ship within range that  has any part of attempting to interfere.
Spell that out NOW to Putin -- time to start playing by your own rules and not Russia/'s.

The story below explains the legal situation --which Russia has zero interest in complying with any norms-either maritime or of the civilised world

Russian attack on Ukrainian ships: who has a right to do what in the Azov Sea

Ukraine has freedom of navigation in the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait. It was acting in accordance with all existing international treaties.

On the contrary, in the FSB’s own description, Russia had arbitrarily attempted to stop Ukraine from exercising the rights it has under those treaties. And attempting to do so, engaged in an act of aggression, ramming into the Ukrainian tugboat in the morning before the Ukrainian fleet approached the Kerch Strait (A on the map).

And in the end, contrary to its own claims, used lethal force against Ukrainian Navy ships outside of its own territorial waters, and outside of the territorial waters of the Crimean peninsula it had occupied (B on the map).

Legal nihilism, unprovoked aggression, and FSB lies. Some things never change.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2018/11/30/russian-attack-on-ukrainian-ships-who-has-a-right-to-do-what-in-the-azov-sea/?fbclid=IwAR0UjRCZS68-MwnkOoyWnjf2N6_9vGOeC0dL3R_r6lAkO2Js-SJZegqKpnE
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 30, 2018, 11:54:42 AM
I wasn't aware Ukraine was a member of NATO?  Is this new and unknown to the public information you provide? or.. You don't really know what NATO is about? How would an invasion on Ukraine (who is not a memberstate) trigger article 5?

No its not a member state but it's ridiculous for it to stand aside where it's in everyone's best interest for it to intervene. That shouldn't be an issue, it should press to make use of itself and relieve itself of its near 3 decade dormant status. That's why few members wish to stump up the necessary money they should have been for it as for too many years now it has shown too little reason for being.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: GQBlues on November 30, 2018, 12:12:47 PM
No its not a member state but it's ridiculous for it to stand aside where it's in everyone's best interest for it to intervene. That shouldn't be an issue, it should press to make use of itself and relieve itself of its near 3 decade dormant status. That's why few members wish to stump up the necessary money they should have been for it as for too many years now it has shown too little reason for being.

It is? Do you mind elaborating on this a bit?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Nightwish on November 30, 2018, 12:16:01 PM
No its not a member state but it's ridiculous for it to stand aside where it's in everyone's best interest for it to intervene. That shouldn't be an issue, it should press to make use of itself and relieve itself of its near 3 decade dormant status. That's why few members wish to stump up the necessary money they should have been for it as for too many years now it has shown too little reason for being.

mm but you say Nato, and Nato as a coalition would never do that, you really think Turkey would support such an action? Because when you say NATO you are talking about a coalition that has an agreement to mutually defend membership states in case of a outside threat to their sovereign borders.

You see there is a reason NATO never invoked article 5, no membership state has asked for it, as far as we know.

Wrong of me I noticed, it was invoked after 9/11, yet US decided to invade Afghanistan alone.

They are not obligated to act on an invasion or attack on a third part

- If you don't realize this yourself, this would be UN's task if they could get it through the security council, which they never will with Russia and China at the same table.

Hence the coalitions that invaded/meddled in Kuwait and Irak wasn't made up as Nato forces even though most countries was accounted for in one way or another and several others joined in.

So the only way to get foreign troops on the ground in Ukraine would be by invitation by Ukraine and as a completely new coalition for this purpose. 

Poland did at one point say they would help out Ukraine in case of invasion from Russia, and they scrambled quite a big army and "rattled their chains" (performed "exercises") near the border to both Kaliningrad and Ukraine to show force. How much they really meant by it is though unknown.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 01, 2018, 07:05:52 AM
It seems Russia won't go tit for tat as they did with direct airline flights.

http://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-bans-russian-men-from-entering-ukraine-escalating-crisis/29629790.html

This is a fairly major escalation. I'm guessing there's plenty of Russian businessmen who will need to make alternative arrangements so am curious how it impacts both Russian and Ukrainian businesses.

If there planning to invade in the next few weeks or so it won't be an issue. No reason to do a tit for tat with a country that may soon no longer exist.

If so we can then go go back to calling it 'The' Ukraine instead of Ukraine ;D
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: msmob on December 01, 2018, 10:07:33 AM
If there planning to invade in the next few weeks or so it won't be an issue. No reason to do a tit for tat with a country that may soon no longer exist.

If so we can then go go back to calling it 'The' Ukraine instead of Ukraine ;D

I apologise to any reader thinking the attempts at inane humour of Trenchie represent other Brits.   
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on December 01, 2018, 02:37:39 PM
straight outa Krim,

The closure of the Sea of Azov is going to have serious economic consequences for Ukraine, an estimated 2% slowdown in the GDP, most of it felt in the south east...

In 2018, the Mariupol and Berdyansk ports, the two most important on the Azov Sea, received approximately 5 million tons and 1.6 million tons of goods, respectively.

They are now effectively blocked by Russia, with Ukrainian vessels being barred from leaving and entering Azov Sea. Currently, 35 ships cannot get to their final destinations

A total of 18 vessels cannot enter the Azov Sea from the Black Sea to get the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and nine cannot exit the Azov Sea. Another eight ships remain moored in the ports. Only ships bound for Russian ports on the Sea of Azov are being allowed through the Kerch Strait by the Russians

Two large Mariupol-based firms owned by billionaire oligarch Rinat Akhmetov — Ilyich Iron and Steel Works of Mariupol and AzovStal — are particularly dependent on the port in Mariupol to ship their finished goods to consumers. And besides steel, the ports are also critical export conduits for other top Ukrainian industries: agriculture and coal.

 roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s steel exports (or approximately 5 percent of total exports), and 5 percent of its grain exports pass through the Azov ports.

With a full blockade, the (Azov) ports will lose up to $2 billion

without Azov Sea shipping, Ukraine would lose 2 percent of its gross domestic product.

aaaannnnnnnnnddd then next year Nord Stream 2 comes online and Ukraine will lose its gas transit fee to Europe which is 3% of its GDP, and Russia will demand a higher price from Ukraine, and maybe pay in advance, expect frequent gas disruptions throughout Ukraine in 2020 adding another 5% drop in GDP...

$1 = 50 UAH end of 2020
there will be much tougher currency controls in Ukraine
no real estate sales in dollars, etc., UAH only, etc





Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: rwd123 on December 02, 2018, 12:53:57 AM
The closure of the Sea of Azov is going to have serious economic consequences for Ukraine, an estimated 2% slowdown in the GDP, most of it felt in the south
I would have guessed more than 2%. Maybe the port in Odessa is about to get really busy...
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Jamesukjames on December 02, 2018, 08:24:45 AM
Sadly this is what will happen either a lot of sabre rattling and not much action or Russia will invade Ukraine and Belarus and NATO will do nothing but control the borders of the former Ukraine.  Russian and Belarus border is already there.  The Ukranian to Russian border is too long to defend.  People along the border are both Russain and Ukrainian so NATO will be entering a cival war and it's hard 5 years to do so in the eastern Ukraine.  NATO stood by and watched the former Yugoslavia self distruct.  People who have never been in battle are pro war.  Logistics how is NATO going to land and supply it's troops the distances are massive.  You want to go up against the Russian army be my guest you can parachute in we need pathfinders trust me you email soldiers will crawl away.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: msmob on December 02, 2018, 09:07:23 AM
Sadly this is what will happen either a lot of sabre rattling and not much action or Russia will invade Ukraine and Belarus and NATO will do nothing but control the borders of the former Ukraine.  Russian and Belarus border is already there.  The Ukranian to Russian border is too long to defend.  People along the border are both Russain and Ukrainian so NATO will be entering a cival war and it's hard 5 years to do so in the eastern Ukraine.  NATO stood by and watched the former Yugoslavia self distruct.  People who have never been in battle are pro war.  Logistics how is NATO going to land and supply it's troops the distances are massive.  You want to go up against the Russian army be my guest you can parachute in we need pathfinders trust me you email soldiers will crawl away.

Well ..THAT was quite an 'intro'

I'm guessing the UK part of your 'nick' is Ukraine rather than United Kingdom

Perhaps you might like to introduce yourself ?

Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on December 02, 2018, 01:22:06 PM
I would think that Europeans would understand that when Nord Stream 2 and South Stream will be complete in 2019 that they are "signing Ukraine's Death Warrant" by accepting gas without depending on Ukrainian transit
so I can only assume that this is tacit European approval of Russia reabsorbing Ukraine, since Ukraine is not at all vital to Europe's economic interests, but Russian gas is...

Russia has a unique window of opportunity for seizing Ukraine
a lot of upsides for doing this, and as long as Trump is commander in chief, very little down side

if the West gives Russia any trouble, or refuses to remove sanctions use Russian proxies in Syria to disrupt mideast oil and gas pipelines

this past September, was the largest military exercise in Russia's history, 300,000 men
this was the test run for the full invasion of Ukraine, + troops from other directions
goal is to take Odessa in 4 days


Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on December 02, 2018, 02:27:06 PM
Sadly this is what will happen either a lot of sabre rattling and not much action or Russia will invade Ukraine and Belarus and NATO will do nothing but control the borders of the former Ukraine.  Russian and Belarus border is already there.  The Ukranian to Russian border is too long to defend.  People along the border are both Russain and Ukrainian so NATO will be entering a cival war and it's hard 5 years to do so in the eastern Ukraine.  NATO stood by and watched the former Yugoslavia self distruct.  People who have never been in battle are pro war.  Logistics how is NATO going to land and supply it's troops the distances are massive.  You want to go up against the Russian army be my guest you can parachute in we need pathfinders trust me you email soldiers will crawl away.

Jamesukjames given your limited English language skills I'm assuming you're not a native speaker? Are you Ukrainian or Russian?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on December 02, 2018, 02:46:33 PM
I would think that Europeans would understand that when Nord Stream 2 and South Stream will be complete in 2019 that they are "signing Ukraine's Death Warrant" by accepting gas without depending on Ukrainian transit
so I can only assume that this is tacit European approval of Russia reabsorbing Ukraine, since Ukraine is not at all vital to Europe's economic interests, but Russian gas is...

Russia has a unique window of opportunity for seizing Ukraine
a lot of upsides for doing this, and as long as Trump is commander in chief, very little down side

if the West gives Russia any trouble, or refuses to remove sanctions use Russian proxies in Syria to disrupt mideast oil and gas pipelines

this past September, was the largest military exercise in Russia's history, 300,000 men
this was the test run for the full invasion of Ukraine, + troops from other directions
goal is to take Odessa in 4 days

Most of Nord Stream 2 is being lead and funded in Europe by Germany. Nord Stream 2's parent company is lead by former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the current German chancellor Angela Merkel and her administration have seen to it that the pipeline will proceed with few obstacles.

Over the years I've worked with many German people in Europe and Moscow. Germans, IMO, tend to be practical people. Since Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO the German government will not attach much importance to its people or economy.

Even with the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia I doubt Russia can secure a land bridge between Russia and Odesa in 4 days. Using Crimea for a naval and air assault on Ukraine's southern coastline will certainly shorten the war but 4 days seems like an overly optimistic deadline to secure Odesa?

I agree ultimately that Russia wants control of Ukraine's southern coastline because that will give Russia a land bridge from Russia all the way to Romania, a EU member and NATO member. In addition, it will mean a land bridge to Moldova which will make transportation of Russian military hardware to Moldova that much easier.

Another advantage for Russia to seize control of Ukraine's southern coastline would be that Russia would then be able to claim ownership of the oil, gas and other minerals offshore.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 02, 2018, 05:21:59 PM
straight outa Krim,

The closure of the Sea of Azov is going to have serious economic consequences for Ukraine, an estimated 2% slowdown in the GDP, most of it felt in the south east...

In 2018, the Mariupol and Berdyansk ports, the two most important on the Azov Sea, received approximately 5 million tons and 1.6 million tons of goods, respectively.

They are now effectively blocked by Russia, with Ukrainian vessels being barred from leaving and entering Azov Sea. Currently, 35 ships cannot get to their final destinations

A total of 18 vessels cannot enter the Azov Sea from the Black Sea to get the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and nine cannot exit the Azov Sea. Another eight ships remain moored in the ports. Only ships bound for Russian ports on the Sea of Azov are being allowed through the Kerch Strait by the Russians

Two large Mariupol-based firms owned by billionaire oligarch Rinat Akhmetov — Ilyich Iron and Steel Works of Mariupol and AzovStal — are particularly dependent on the port in Mariupol to ship their finished goods to consumers. And besides steel, the ports are also critical export conduits for other top Ukrainian industries: agriculture and coal.

 roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s steel exports (or approximately 5 percent of total exports), and 5 percent of its grain exports pass through the Azov ports.

With a full blockade, the (Azov) ports will lose up to $2 billion

without Azov Sea shipping, Ukraine would lose 2 percent of its gross domestic product.

aaaannnnnnnnnddd then next year Nord Stream 2 comes online and Ukraine will lose its gas transit fee to Europe which is 3% of its GDP, and Russia will demand a higher price from Ukraine, and maybe pay in advance, expect frequent gas disruptions throughout Ukraine in 2020 adding another 5% drop in GDP...

$1 = 50 UAH end of 2020
there will be much tougher currency controls in Ukraine
no real estate sales in dollars, etc., UAH only, etc

Add to all of that when the UK leaves the EU this March many Poles I believe will return to Poland. To some extent it has already started. This means that Poland will no longer need Ukrainian workers in Poland. This will decrease the good revenue many Ukrainian men were sending back to their families in Ukraine and of course many Ukrainian men may return to Ukraine. Assuming of course Ukraine still exists as a country and not just a region by that time.

I personally hope that Ukraine will continue to exist in at least some form as an independent country. It's really seems to be coming along with its own unique identity now.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Boethius on December 02, 2018, 05:43:07 PM
Jamesukjames given your limited English language skills I'm assuming you're not a native speaker? Are you Ukrainian or Russian?

His syntax is not Slavic.


This post was composed without the aid of google.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on December 02, 2018, 07:13:45 PM
this summer I photographed Iskander missiles in Simferopol heading to the railway station to be shipped up north towards Kerch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

when they are equipped with a thermobaric warhead it is the equivalent of several tons of TNT!
 it makes them the deadliest non nuclear missile in Russia’s inventory, these can now hit almost any point in southern Ukraine from Kerch

now with Ukrainian navy cut off from the sea of Azov, Ukrainian ground forces in southern Ukraine  are exposed to the sea either by direct attack or amphibious landing their tactical situation deteriorated immensely as a result of this "incident"

so now...
Russian aircraft and missiles attack from two directions
Russian ground forces attack from two directions
and naval bombardment followed by amphibious landing and ground assault in third direction

6 Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant Reactors secured by airborn assault in 30 minutes and shutdown

Ukraine defensive line collapses in 24 hours
Russian forces outside Odessa 24 hours later
meanwhile, Belbeck shock battalion paralyzes all Odessa communication and transportation
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 02, 2018, 07:35:00 PM
this summer I photographed Iskander missiles in Simferopol heading to the railway station to be shipped up north towards Kerch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

when they are equipped with a thermobaric warhead it is the equivalent of several tons of TNT!
 it makes them the deadliest non nuclear missile in Russia’s inventory, these can now hit almost any point in southern Ukraine from Kerch

now with Ukrainian navy cut off from the sea of Azov, Ukrainian ground forces in southern Ukraine  are exposed to the sea either by direct attack or amphibious landing their tactical situation deteriorated immensely as a result of this "incident"

so now...
Russian aircraft and missiles attack from two directions
Russian ground forces attack from two directions
and naval bombardment followed by amphibious landing and ground assault in third direction

6 Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant Reactors secured by airborn assault in 30 minutes and shutdown

Ukraine defensive line collapses in 24 hours
Russian forces outside Odessa 24 hours later
meanwhile, Belbeck shock battalion paralyzes all Odessa communication and transportation

Krim, when do you expect this all to happen?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on December 02, 2018, 08:08:56 PM
it could happen at any time, if the situation presents an opportunity, like another maidan
but in general I'd expect it to happen after 2019
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on December 02, 2018, 09:08:02 PM
this summer I photographed Iskander missiles in Simferopol heading to the railway station to be shipped up north towards Kerch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

when they are equipped with a thermobaric warhead it is the equivalent of several tons of TNT!
 it makes them the deadliest non nuclear missile in Russia’s inventory, these can now hit almost any point in southern Ukraine from Kerch

now with Ukrainian navy cut off from the sea of Azov, Ukrainian ground forces in southern Ukraine  are exposed to the sea either by direct attack or amphibious landing their tactical situation deteriorated immensely as a result of this "incident"

so now...
Russian aircraft and missiles attack from two directions
Russian ground forces attack from two directions
and naval bombardment followed by amphibious landing and ground assault in third direction

6 Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant Reactors secured by airborn assault in 30 minutes and shutdown

Ukraine defensive line collapses in 24 hours
Russian forces outside Odessa 24 hours later
meanwhile, Belbeck shock battalion paralyzes all Odessa communication and transportation

The danger of Russia invading Ukraine probably isn't of war with the US and/or NATO it's what happens if the US and EU cut off trade with Russia? That would leave only two major world economies as potential trading partners, India and China. Forced to choose between trade with the EU and US or Russia, India's going to choose the former. Even China might be forced to cut or severely reduce trade with Russia if it meant losing much of its trade with the US and EU.

Japan and South Korea wouldn't trade with Russia especially if the US and EU apply enough pressure. Sure there are smaller countries in South America, Africa and Asia that might trade with Russia but nowhere near enough to make up for the loss of trade with the US and EU. If Russia becomes dependent on trade with China then China effectively has Russia at its mercy and Putin has to jump when China says jump. That's something Putin probably wouldn't want to do.

However, so far Putin's got away with war with Georgia, seizing Crimea and seizing part of Ukraine. He may think he's free to take most or all of the rest of Ukraine. Who knows?
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Jamesukjames on December 03, 2018, 03:09:47 AM
War is a business you enter one to achieve an objective.  USA is playing north Korea so well . USA has agreed China can invade north Korea if things get too hot but also brokers trade deals and a softening of tensions between north and south Korea.  As to Ukraine problem Europe needs the gas.  So let Russia rapidly take over or fight a prolonged war that Europe has no appetite for.  As per my previous post the new border in the West would be short and defendable.   Russia has a desire for Ukrainian gas and agricultural land European companies have tried investing and often been unsucessful.  Sorry but many armies disrespect the Ukrainian army who sold most of their best weapons to Africa including tanks and most of their apcs and ak 74s  .  I'm not pro either side but just giving my views.     
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: GQBlues on December 03, 2018, 05:55:25 AM
Russia is in trouble now. US response against Russia’s aggression with the grass root movement.

http://youtu.be/fXBdi4YUbzE
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: DaveNY on December 04, 2018, 01:57:16 PM
Germany is still in full support of the Russia-Germany gas link known as Nord Stream 2 despite the tensions over access to the Azov Sea and Russia's seizure of 3 Ukrainian ships and their crew.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-germany/germany-to-back-russian-gas-link-despite-ukraine-tensions-idUSKBN1O20VP
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on December 05, 2018, 07:03:11 PM
Reports of US ships on the way to the Black sea -Turkey has been notified US Navy passing through the Bosphorus Straits.  NATO urging others to support.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: ML on December 05, 2018, 09:06:25 PM
But this is nothing new.  The last US ship to enter the Black Sea was the fast transport ship USNS Carson City in October. The USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, left the Black Sea at the end of August.
Under the rules of the Montreux Convention, US ships can only be in the Black Sea for 21 days.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: rwd123 on December 11, 2018, 02:17:13 AM
New Satellite Imagery Shows Hundreds Of Russian Battle Tanks Amassing On Ukraine Border

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-09/new-satellite-imagery-shows-hundreds-russian-battle-tanks-amassing-ukraine-border
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Jamesukjames on December 11, 2018, 03:04:45 AM
Fake news.  You don't store your tanks like that in times of war you spread them out.  Computer graphics.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Nightwish on December 11, 2018, 03:09:53 AM
Fake news.  You don't store your tanks like that in times of war you spread them out.  Computer graphics.

Russia "isn't" at war, at least not officially and definitely not on their home soil.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Blighty on December 11, 2018, 05:10:11 AM
Fake news.  You don't store your tanks like that in times of war you spread them out.  Computer graphics.

Deployed one of their inflatable tank regiments to wind up the Ukrainians .... see

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Uszb89aqTo
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Jamesukjames on December 11, 2018, 05:42:18 AM
If that's the border the tanks would be deployed in battle groups with infantry support and camouflaged.  Can you imagine the logistics of spreading that number of tanks out.  Also the risk of having so many assets in one place.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on December 11, 2018, 09:15:33 AM
zerohedge is a pro-russian organization that directly spreads Russian propaganda
any information from them is likely disinformatzie!

nevertheless, my iphone tracker is showing movements of many Russian units in the Western military district into positions closer to the Ukrainian border

there’s also been a step-up in fighting in Donbas

now that Sea of Azov is cut-off from Ukraine, it exposes Ukraine’s entire southern flank to unopposed amphibious assault, several brigades of these forces are stationed at and still training just a few hundred miles away in Sevastopol (privet moy brat!)
they could deploy from ships from Sevastopol and be on the beach in Mauriopol 24  hours later
meanwhile huge Iskander long range missiles being deployed along Northern Crimea targeted on main command and control points in southern Ukraine

belbeck is loaded up with SU-27s and SU-31s, 20 min flying time to Southern Ukraine, to supply air support after taking out all Ukrainian airfields in Southern Ukraine

massive Mi-24 assault helicopter gunships sighted along northern Crimea flying in at night

some of the special forces “shock battalions” have already been deployed in Ukraine, getting in before ban on Russian males

my friend in Kyiv tells me that if war broke out today, half the people in Kyiv wouldn’t fight Russia...

Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on December 11, 2018, 04:27:17 PM
If that's the border the tanks would be deployed in battle groups with infantry support and camouflaged.  Can you imagine the logistics of spreading that number of tanks out.  Also the risk of having so many assets in one place.

James , you have said a few very stupid things since you arrived on the forum  -- and you clearly have little understanding of the war Russia is conducting in Ukraine.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: jone on December 11, 2018, 10:50:30 PM
If you want to find a Russian apologist, look no farther than Doug Bandow of the Cato Institute.   Below is one of his more benign reviews of Russia and Ukraine.   Yesterday he also wrote one that basically said Poroshenko was behind the seizure of ships in the Azov Sea entrance.

Check this:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/11/30/ukraine-isnt-important-security-united-states-editorials-debates/2156976002/

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/ukraine-should-not-be-member-nato
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Boethius on December 12, 2018, 09:17:46 AM
If that's the border the tanks would be deployed in battle groups with infantry support and camouflaged.  Can you imagine the logistics of spreading that number of tanks out.  Also the risk of having so many assets in one place.


The tanks are not at the border.  They are at a military base 18 km from the Ukrainian border.  But, they were moved there in November.


This post was composed without the aid of google.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Jamesukjames on December 12, 2018, 10:26:11 AM
Jay h .  I have realised this is a forum for key board warriors.  I have just returned from the ukraine russian border.  I have also served in Ireland and the former Yugoslavia. I have also been shot in the past an incredibly painful experience.  My grandfather was a military diplomat in Moscow Germany and France.  I have a son who serves and I certainly don't want him thrown into a European continental civil war.  I have not said anything stupid I have expressed my views.  As I don't date UK women  anymore I'm on my 5th f s u relationship.  So maybe you don't like what I say .  Tactically do you really think the Russians would deploy their tanks to one place as a sitting target or spread them along the borders as a fast moving invasion force  .  If they are all there they are reserves waiting to reinforce the positions they already hold in the east.  I'm not pro either side.  I'm just stating that that is not a battle deployment.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Jamesukjames on December 12, 2018, 10:51:48 AM
My present g f and the lady I dated before are the daughters of officers killed in action. 
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on December 12, 2018, 11:11:38 AM
the story of Russian tanks on the border with Ukraine, or within Ukraine has been well covered by Bellingcat, links here:

http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2017/04/02/tankspotting-t-90as-donbass/

and

http://www.bellingcat.com/tag/tanks/

This past September 900 Russian tanks were on the move in the largest military exercise in Russia since the breakup of the USSR, total of 300,000 military personnel

I was in Sevastopol two months before this and saw a map of the exercise  in a large chart in a training room while I was visiting a Russian military base
basically, if instead of heading East, if the exercise headed West, then this exercise is an exact depiction of how Russia is going to take Donbas in 48 hours with 900 tanks + 300,000 + attack from south and from west in Transnistria

the fact that the US hasn’t sent ships to sea of Azov to dock in Ukraine, is a clear capitulation to Putin

he’s free to go on to the next step...

James,

c'mon dewd, calm down
tanks aren't deployed if they're parked in "tank parks" in large numbers near the border
it's just much quicker to deploy them from this location when the opportunity presents itself, like major civil unrest in Ukraine.
so they're getting ready to be deployed, do you know how much maintenance there is on 900 tanks after a major military maneuver?
from this location they have the ultimate vantage point to attack Ukraine, instead of being based in their normal bases.
turn on the ignition, and less than 30 min later they're in Ukraine, open terrain, flat as a pancake, tanks can go fast!
if you think about it, why go through all the hassle of moving 900 tanks to a new location, establish permanent facilities, etc,
UNLESS you're planning on DEPLOYING them!

you want to hear a funny one?

USA has transferred Javelin missiles to Ukraine
but USA doesn't trust Ukrainians not to sell the missiles on the black market
so missiles are stored in special bunkers around kharkiv with 24 hr video and alarm
Russia knows location of each bunker!
Kablamo!

word is Wagner is offering his people 5 million USD to capture one for payback to what the USA did to him in Syria!


Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 12, 2018, 01:58:19 PM
the story of Russian tanks on the border with Ukraine, or within Ukraine has been well covered by Bellingcat, links here:

http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2017/04/02/tankspotting-t-90as-donbass/

and

http://www.bellingcat.com/tag/tanks/

This past September 900 Russian tanks were on the move in the largest military exercise in Russia since the breakup of the USSR, total of 300,000 military personnel

I was in Sevastopol two months before this and saw a map of the exercise  in a large chart in a training room while I was visiting a Russian military base
basically, if instead of heading East, if the exercise headed West, then this exercise is an exact depiction of how Russia is going to take Donbas in 48 hours with 900 tanks + 300,000 + attack from south and from west in Transnistria

the fact that the US hasn’t sent ships to sea of Azov to dock in Ukraine, is a clear capitulation to Putin

he’s free to go on to the next step...

James,

c'mon dewd, calm down
tanks aren't deployed if they're parked in "tank parks" in large numbers near the border
it's just much quicker to deploy them from this location when the opportunity presents itself, like major civil unrest in Ukraine.
so they're getting ready to be deployed, do you know how much maintenance there is on 900 tanks after a major military maneuver?
from this location they have the ultimate vantage point to attack Ukraine, instead of being based in their normal bases.
turn on the ignition, and less than 30 min later they're in Ukraine, open terrain, flat as a pancake, tanks can go fast!
if you think about it, why go through all the hassle of moving 900 tanks to a new location, establish permanent facilities, etc,
UNLESS you're planning on DEPLOYING them!

you want to hear a funny one?

USA has transferred Javelin missiles to Ukraine
but USA doesn't trust Ukrainians not to sell the missiles on the black market
so missiles are stored in special bunkers around kharkiv with 24 hr video and alarm
Russia knows location of each bunker!
Kablamo!

word is Wagner is offering his people 5 million USD to capture one for payback to what the USA did to him in Syria!

Perhaps the two sides could agree to square off around Kursk for another epic tank battle!

Seriously though it must be strange to have all the preparations for invasion going on along the border but not know at all when for Ukrainian citizens or even some question mark lingering over 'if'. It may be possible that a lot of this is to scare of investors and collapse the Ukrainian economy completely. Then there may not need to be any need to invade as Ukraine would be at Russia's mercy.
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: JayH on December 12, 2018, 02:50:00 PM
Jay h .  I have realised this is a forum for key board warriors.  I have just returned from the ukraine russian border.  I have also served in Ireland and the former Yugoslavia. I have also been shot in the past an incredibly painful experience.  My grandfather was a military diplomat in Moscow Germany and France.  I have a son who serves and I certainly don't want him thrown into a European continental civil war.  I have not said anything stupid I have expressed my views.  As I don't date UK women  anymore I'm on my 5th f s u relationship.  So maybe you don't like what I say .  Tactically do you really think the Russians would deploy their tanks to one place as a sitting target or spread them along the borders as a fast moving invasion force  .  If they are all there they are reserves waiting to reinforce the positions they already hold in the east.  I'm not pro either side.  I'm just stating that that is not a battle deployment.

My present g f and the lady I dated before are the daughters of officers killed in action. 

All that and 2 weeks ago you had never been in Ukraine !
Sumy ? On the Russian border?mmm There are quite a few others here who have been in Ukraine recently -- and a lot lot closer to the Russian border and in particular the frontline than you .
For the record -- there are some on the forum here that have served in Ukraine, people who have lost relatives & friends killed,maimed,injured etc etc
Keyboard warrior? You make a pretty fair attempt at a pissing contest-- given you know jack sh.t about me and show even less respect for Ukraine in your posts you might look a lot smarter if you just shut up.
Given your national broadcaster does it's stories on Ukraine from Moscow and the "expert" commentators refer to "THE" Ukraine and follow the Russian BS fake ( that is invented /untrue) "news" storylines   and still refers to the Russian troops who invaded  & occupy  Ukraine as "separatists" & rebels it is easy enough to see how you have it arse about !
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: msmob on December 13, 2018, 06:20:00 AM
All that and 2 weeks ago you had never been in Ukraine !
Sumy ? On the Russian border?mmm There are quite a few others here who have been in Ukraine recently -- and a lot lot closer to the Russian border and in particular the frontline than you .
For the record -- there are some on the forum here that have served in Ukraine, people who have lost relatives & friends killed,maimed,injured etc etc
Keyboard warrior? You make a pretty fair attempt at a pissing contest-- given you know jack sh.t about me and show even less respect for Ukraine in your posts you might look a lot smarter if you just shut up.
Given your national broadcaster does it's stories on Ukraine from Moscow and the "expert" commentators refer to "THE" Ukraine and follow the Russian BS fake ( that is invented /untrue) "news" storylines   and still refers to the Russian troops who invaded  & occupy  Ukraine as "separatists" & rebels it is easy enough to see how you have it arse about !

JayH

Given the howlers you've cut n pasted on here from UA 'press' - it is amusing to see you take pops at  others ..

I'm sure the BBC's Jonah Fisher will be interested to hear he;s 'unemployed'

I missed when the BBC Russia correspondents that have reported on MH17 from Donbas have towed the Kremlin line ..( formerly Sarah Rainsford) and now Steve Rosenberg http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/18/bbc-journalists-attacked-equipment-damaged-moscow-complaint (http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/18/bbc-journalists-attacked-equipment-damaged-moscow-complaint)


WHY do you keep posting such ill-researched guff ?




Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on December 21, 2018, 12:42:03 PM
massive amounts of new Russian military hardware moving in last few days to juncture point of Northern Crimean Canal at Armyansk
so many vehicles main highway is jammed 
10 new Su-31s flew in to Belbeck, there is no longer parking space for any more aircraft, even after recent expansion!
Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 22, 2018, 02:36:48 PM
massive amounts of new Russian military hardware moving in last few days to juncture point of Northern Crimean Canal at Armyansk
so many vehicles main highway is jammed 
10 new Su-31s flew in to Belbeck, there is no longer parking space for any more aircraft, even after recent expansion!

Don't worry Krim help is at hand we've sent a warship in that alone should be enough to see them off ;D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46657470

Seriously though it's good to see our country finally getting more directly involved. Without such direct deployment of troops Ukraine is just too easy a target to gobble up.

I'm hoping the next move will be to send in the tanks to help the Ukrainians to regain their eastern territory :)

Title: Re: New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border
Post by: krimster2 on December 22, 2018, 02:43:16 PM
HMS Echo is a meteorology research vessel, in other words slightly below "dreadnought" class :)
and it DID NOT dock in Azov!!!  whopeee!  still more than what the US has done! which is to cancel sanctions on Rusal, take that!
I can't believe there isn't a NATO flotilla heading to mauripol