THREE YEARS SINCE THE ARREST OF MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY
Three years have passed since Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested at the Novosibirsk Airport in 2003. His trial resulted in a sentence of eight years, based on an entire bouquet of criminal charges.
Note that under Russian law, detention during the trial and investigation period is counted as part of the sentence. Thus, we can say that Khodorkovsky has already served exactly three years of his prison term.
He has five years to go. Obviously, no one in their right mind believes in the possibility of an early release, even if Khodorkovsky is legally entitled to it.
Actually, five years isn't all that long, and the time will pass fairly quickly. And then the Kremlin will be faced with the next question: what should it do with Khodorkovsky from there? First of all, most people believe that continuity between the present administration and the next administration will be maintained. It doesn't really matter whether President Vladimir Putin stays on for another term or another president takes over. The authorities will remain as they are now, so their attitude to Khodorkovsky won't change either.
Secondly, Khodorkovsky will still be relatively youthful and vigorous when he's released from prison. Most importantly, he will be rehabilitated. After all, eight years in prison is enough to secure both legal and moral atonement for all his sins.
No one is claiming that Khodorkovsky will immediately start fighting the authorities as soon as he gets out of jail; rather the reverse. But this won't prevent the authorities from regarding Khodorkovsky as their rival.
In other words, the authorities will have to solve the Khodorkovsky problem. There aren't too many options. It's very tempting, of course, to prevent Khodorkovsky's release - either by sentencing him to another term, or arranging for him to die in prison.
Yet it seems too late already to issue new charges against Khodorkovsky. Although the legal statute of limitations hasn't expired, new charges now would look odd to the public - even the most credulous part of the public.
It would be too blatant an illustration of the Kremlin's determination to isolate Khodorkovsky from Russian politics. Issuing new charges would damage the authorities more than it would hurt Khodorkovsky himself. Besides, let's not forget that the system would then have to organize another trial - thus attracting further attention to Khodorkovsky and allowing him the opportunity to address the public in court.
The hypothetical possibility of Khodorkovsky's death in the Krasnokamenskaya prison would be a disastrous blow to the reputation of the Russian authorities. No one in Russia or the West would ever believe that Khodorkovsky's death was an accident.
Under the circumstances, the ideal option from the Kremlin's standpoint would be for Khodorkovsky to simply disappear - melt into air - or at least leave the country as soon as he gets out of jail. Yet this is unlikely as well.
Paradoxically enough, all this produces a sticky situation: Khodorkovsky can't be released, yet he can't remain imprisoned either. As past experience shows, the only solution in a no-win situation is negotiation. As the end of his sentence draws closer, this unexpected solution might even become a reality.
<ref>Novye Izvestia, 25/10/06
