What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[BillyB]

  I can understand the feeling of many with a short-term outlook to reunite with Russia, even though over the long term I consider it ill-advised. 

I want to come back to this because it got me thinking some more. The average Russian makes three times the income of the average Ukrainian. It wouldn't be smart for Russia to annex Ukraine and raise their standard of living to that of Russians. If Russia annexes Ukraine, they may then cut them off to allow them to become their own nation again or Russia may encourage a civil war without annexing. Either way, it's important for Russia to place another puppet president that allows Russia to enjoy favorable business dealings with Ukraine. Ukraine will continue to have a low standard of living while Russia will continue to enjoy a higher standard of living.


Most ex Soviet bloc nations that's free from Russian influence have higher average incomes per person than Russia. I'm sure that is on the minds of many Ukrainians. Most think adopting a western style economy is better than doing business under Russia.


MissAmeno! I'm sure you have faith in the Ukrainian soldier. I'm sure they'll fight hard against foreign invaders but against their own people, many soldiers will hesitate, quit, or even switch sides. Putin knows this and will try a civil war in Ukraine before allowing Russians to die. I recently read an article where a Ukrainian colonel and his troops gave up their firing pins from their weapons to militia men. I suspect more incidences like this when soldiers are asked to confront citizens or perform operations against militia that compromises the lives of citizens.

[fathertime]

I can see one making the argument that Russia has been fomenting or that the rebellion in E. Ukraine isn't genuine....but now even the supposedly loyal troops are refusing their orders...and I see quotes like this one:


  "It was a mistake to launch an 'anti-terrorist operation' in the Donbass where the overwhelming majority is against the government.[/size] [/i][/size][size=78%] [/size]
[/size]
[/size]That sure flies in the face of what some have been saying here about it only being a bunch of Russians coming over the border and stirring up trouble. The division appears genuine and I can see more how Ukraine becoming a Federation as being on the table as a reasonable solution.  Allowing for more autonomy in these regions could benefit all sides and prevent too much more blood being spilled.  [size=78%]

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-armys-humiliations-pile-eastern-push-fizzles-211406122.html

[/size]Fathertime! [size=78%][/size] [size=78%]

[Steamer]

I do not know, guys, what kind of news you are reading to have such conclusions.

In the US we have a multitude of news sources so that you can always find whatever point of view suits your view.

[BillyB]

the supposedly loyal troops are refusing their orders...

The loyal troops are supposed to be loyal to Ukrainian citizens. The troops couldn't fire upon citizens when Yanukovych was president and they would have a difficult time doing that if the new government ordered them to do so. I seen some photographs of citizens blocking the path of armored vehicles. What are the troops supposed to do? They aren't going to run citizens over in order to chase the militia/Russian soldiers.

I can see one making the argument that Russia has been fomenting ......rebellion in E. Ukraine....

It's not people's opinion anymore, it's reality after Putin spoke last night. Putin wants east Ukraine. He never planned on stopping in Crimea. Putin said God only knows why east Ukraine was allowed to be part of Ukraine in 1920 and referred to that area as the "New Russia" many times during Q & A on Russian television. When asked "why?" Soviet leaders gave Ukraine those territories, Putin replied "May God judge them.” Putin also said the parliament has given him the right to use force in Ukraine. He's got the green light and light sanctions aren't going to stop him. Hopefully Obama can get smarter faster while he's learning foreign policy on the job.


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/18/world/europe/russia-ukraine.html?_r=0


Putin also change course and admitted for the first time Russian troops were in Crimea in unmarked uniforms before their election. There's no doubt in my mind Putin wants east Ukraine and has unmarked and masked troops there to destabilize the region and prop up pro Russian supporters. This is straight out of the Communist textbook on how to get things done destabilizing them first and then bring them within their influence. Hitler doesn't get all the credit.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-changes-course-admits-russian-troops-were-in-crimea-before-vote/2014/04/17/b3300a54-c617-11e3-bf7a-be01a9b69cf1_story.html


Putin's popularity hovers around 80%. Most Russian's approve of Putin's actions even if people got to die when getting it done.

[GQBlues]

In the US we have a multitude of news sources so that you can always find whatever point of view suits your view.

...and there never was a time in the US that it was more evident than during the 2008 / 2012 presidential election.  I'm already reminiscing for those good ol' Kool-aid years...

[fathertime]

Hey billyb,
It would appear to me and based on reports I read that a large percentage of east Ukrainians in these cities are in support of the pro russians. Russia has still not invaded. 
From my perspective, US arming or over involvement will only create more bloodshed.  It would appear parts of Ukraine would be good with more autonomy without being forced to follow mandates from Kiev that they are adamantly opposed to.
It also appears the troops are very quick to change which flag they fly when they actually get into these areas.

Fathertime!

[Muzh]

[fathertime]

Nice self-portrait! I might suggest you let your hair grow out or wear a hat.

Fathertime!

[BillyB]

It would appear parts of Ukraine would be good with more autonomy without being forced to follow mandates from Kiev that they are adamantly opposed to.

The current Prime Minister of Ukraine has promised all regions of Ukraine autonomy BEFORE Russia stuck it's nose in Ukraine's business. Autonomy is not the issue here. Russia wants Ukraine in a land grab. They will prop up pro Russian leaders and hold an election where the ballot is written by Putin just as done in Crimea. If it works, east Ukraine will follow Crimea, if it doesn't work, Putin has stated he has permission from his parliament and he has the right to use Russian troops in Ukraine to pursue it's interests.


You've said Putin will stop at Crimea. If that is true, Putin should've told east Ukrainians a long time ago "don't kill your fellow citizens over me. Join in Ukraine's elections next month speak your mind through the vote there, not by guns. I will not annex you." Many lives can be saved if Putin says that but Putin wants east Ukraine if not all. Last night, on Russian tv, he constantly referred to east Ukraine as "New Russia." Like most people, I wished you were right. When will you believe Putin wants more than Crimea? Obama should've taken firmer steps in preventing Russia from entering east Ukraine. Obama has said without a doubt, Russia is in there causing problems but haven't issued out any new sanctions while continuing to make threats there will be additional costs. The cost of the land grab when Russia is finished is going to turn out to be a bargain.


America allows States to have a certain level of autonomy. It's wise for every nation to allow regions to have autonomy because not all people believe in the same things or what to do things the same way but just because everybody has different ways of living life, it's wrong and illegal according nations constitutions to split nations into pieces. Lot's of people have to die in a civil war before the international community accepts a legal split of a nation.

From my perspective, US arming or over involvement will only create more bloodshed. 

I think the violence and the blood that's currently shed and soon to be shed was because America and Europe didn't do enough. Our weakness and rejection of Ukrainian calls for weapons has encouraged Putin to go for more. If Obama joined in Putin's call to protect ethnic Russians after the revolution and sent American troops there to protect citizens, that is the only thing Putin will not confront. Obama could've had Putin in checkmate from the beginning.


By not arming west Ukrainians it will most certainly save the lives of east Ukrainians that are armed by Russia but will result in more deaths of the out gunned west Ukrainians in the event of the civil war. Also, by not arming west Ukrainians, it allows Putin to believe we will accept his actions because we care less about the situation than he does. Who wants it more is what matters. West Ukrainians moral has to be dropping since the West seems hesitant to help them achieve a fair fight against Russian backed east Ukrainians. Russia will weather the sanctions and in less than 10 years Putin knows America and Europe will forget and forgive and get back to business with them.


In other news Jews are now required to register themselves and their property or risk getting kicked out of the country and having their property confiscated in east Ukraine New Russia. New management has already made the attempt to make New Russia a friendlier place to live free of discrimination.


http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine-very-serious-crisis-developing-evocative-of-the-1930s/

[fathertime]

Well Billyb, it seems to me aggressive action to arm w. Ukrainians would have been a disaster. I don't think any outside country really is interested enough to participate in a war with Russia over an area where there is significant Russian support to begin with. 

To this point it appears to me the eastern regions were not autonomous enough to their liking. Russia did invade crimea and I continue tO Believe that was the extent of their invasion plans.  Now if parts of e. Ukraine are so opposed to what is going on un Kiev and want more autonomy I think that is not unreasonable.   I don't even know if it is unreasonable for certain parts to join Russia if it were possible to have a honest election. By looking at the prior elections by region it appears the nation suffers from quite a divide.  The nation has not been a model of success so adhering themselves to Russia may appear to them as a good option, when compared to continuing to otherwise languish.   What do you think? 
Thanks for sharing your perspective.
Fathertime!

[Muzh]

[LiveFromUkraine]

Didn't you see pretty boy's post? Some of us curmudgeons need to be pushed back.

And then his date is more than happy to oblige. They are just like the person they idolize: Putler.

They are going to give their version and the rest be damned.

Either by passive-aggressive means or just plain ridicule.

Heh

[fathertime]

We gotta get poor muzh to a fashion consultant...perhaps he would look a little better from another angle.

Fathertime!

[BillyB]

it seems to me aggressive action to arm w. Ukrainians would have been a disaster.

Is east Ukrainians that are getting armed by Russia to fight west Ukrainians a disaster too? The west wants to keep their country in one piece and defend themselves from Russian backed invasion/civil war. They do not consider it a disaster if America helps them. That is their choice and consider it a disaster if nobody arms them. They knew Crimea wasn't the only thing Putin wanted. Remember months ago Putin said he doesn't want to see Ukraine split? A guy can read that anyway he wants but I read it as Putin will collect Ukraine in pieces until it's whole again.


There's some good news from today's meeting. It's been reported that there is an agreement to de-escalate the crisis from all parties. It calls for the disarming of all illegally armed groups and for control of buildings seized by pro-Russian separatists to be turned back to authorities. I assume Russia's role in this will be to disarm the illegally armed groups and give back the government buildings to the Ukrainian authorities. America has agreed to suspend additional sanctions if there was no agreement. All sides must refrain from violence, intimidation or provocative actions.


Fathertime, you may be right that in the end that Russia will move no further than Crimea. I can't help believing Putin is buying time and has another trick up his sleeve. Putin's talk to his people last night was 180 degrees opposite than this agreement. Was he lying to his people in order to gain more leverage at the meeting or is he lying to us about honoring the agreement? One thing that's certain is that he's lying.

[Faux Pas]

Hey billyb,
It would appear to me and based on reports I read that a large percentage of east Ukrainians in these cities are in support of the pro russians. Russia has still not invaded. 
From my perspective, US arming or over involvement will only create more bloodshed.  It would appear parts of Ukraine would be good with more autonomy without being forced to follow mandates from Kiev that they are adamantly opposed to.
It also appears the troops are very quick to change which flag they fly when they actually get into these areas.

Fathertime!

FT, that sounds like a great way to keep a country together. In fact, why don't we do that in the U.S.? Hardly any of the states in the South voted for Obama. Those states should be allow complete autonomy and not follow any mandates from Washington D.C.. There's Texas who actually all along is a sovereign country. They shouldn't have to follow those pesky Washington edicts either. Why not just forget we even have a Washington D.C. or a United States. Each state should have complete autonomy to join Russia, Mexico or Guyana if they chose. Yeah! Great logic there guy 

[Muzh]

So it seems that Putin is telling his vassals to go home and stop the provocations insurrection in eastern Ukraine.
 
Questions are:
 
Is he for real?
 
Will the lackeys oblige? If they do, would they feel betrayed?
 
Or is he buying time?
 
Moscow Times
 
 

[Muzh]

FT, that sounds like a great way to keep a country together. In fact, why don't we do that in the U.S.? Hardly any of the states in the South voted for Obama. Those states should be allow complete autonomy and not follow any mandates from Washington D.C.. There's Texas who actually all along is a sovereign country. They shouldn't have to follow those pesky Washington edicts either. Why not just forget we even have a Washington D.C. or a United States. Each state should have complete autonomy to join Russia, Mexico or Guyana if they chose. Yeah! Great logic there guy 

Must be that chunk of meat in the front and back of his head.

[fathertime]

Hey Billyb, it seems to me that Russia has some involvement in E Ukraine.  I can see why they have real interests in the area.  I think the USA going in and potentially arming others would be mainly to thwart Russian interests, as I dont see the critical interests for us.  I don't see that as a good enough reason for us to get involved. I also believe Russia would escalate and things would wind up worse.

It does appear that there is headway being made through negotiations which I feel is a good route to take. If ultimately Russia has influence ( not complete control) in certain regions and the people are generally ok with it, then that is ok by me.
Fathertime!

[fathertime]

FT, that sounds like a great way to keep a country together. In fact, why don't we do that in the U.S.? Hardly any of the states in the South voted for Obama. Those states should be allow complete autonomy and not follow any mandates from Washington D.C.. There's Texas who actually all along is a sovereign country. They shouldn't have to follow those pesky Washington edicts either. Why not just forget we even have a Washington D.C. or a United States. Each state should have complete autonomy to join Russia, Mexico or Guyana if they chose. Yeah! Great logic there guy 

fp
you are commenting on my logic unfairly. In my opinion it comes down to degree by bringing the USA in and comparing it to Ukraine and then attributing that comparison as if that was mine.  Our divisions and country are very different than Ukraine.  Or am I to take it that you don't see the difference guy?
Fathertime!

[fathertime]

Must be that chunk of meat in the front and back of his head.

You have shown your self-portrait and it appears to me that it is you that has the chunks of extra flesh. My portrait is my avatar.
Fathertime!

[Faux Pas]

fp
you are commenting on my logic unfairly. In my opinion it comes down to degree by bringing the USA in and comparing it to Ukraine and then attributing that comparison as if that was mine.  Our divisions and country are very different than Ukraine.  Or am I to take it that you don't see the difference guy?
Fathertime!

No, I don't see the difference FT, there isn't any. You wish to apply that logic because it's Ukraine (not involving you) but don't wish to apply to yourself and the U.S.. It is the same thing. Ukraine is in political upheaval but, that is no reason to slice and dice the country or wave dismissively when someone else does. Ukraine borders should be respected, even by Russia. If Russia is so concerned about her *cough* citizens in Ukraine, they should evacuate them rather than annex/invade the sovereign lands of another country or foment unrest leading to civil war. Yes, the same rule of law applies to you as it does there. Thus, be careful what you ask for or ignore.

[calmissile]

No, I don't see the difference FT, there isn't any. You wish to apply that logic because it's Ukraine (not involving you) but don't wish to apply to yourself and the U.S.. It is the same thing. Ukraine is in political upheaval but, that is no reason to slice and dice the country or wave dismissively when someone else does. Ukraine borders should be respected, even by Russia. If Russia is so concerned about her *cough* citizens in Ukraine, they should evacuate them rather than annex/invade the sovereign lands of another country or foment unrest leading to civil war. Yes, the same rule of law applies to you as it does there. Thus, be careful what you ask for or ignore.

+100

Also, we should be clear on Putin's statements.  Putin's excuse to invade Crimea was not to protect Russian citizens.  It was to 'protect' Russian speaking Ukrainians.

Just got an update from wife.  The banks are still closed in Crimea.  Crimeans have no access to currency.  New Russian courts and rule of law is not yet in place in Crimea.  Many Ukrainians living in Crimea cannot get pensions without Russian passport.  Russia is not issuing passports to them.  Mail not working to Crimea.  Government offices not at work in Crimea.  Cannot file any legal documents in Crimea courts....there are no courts.    People are in panic!

Putler has a done a great job for the people of Crimea that he promised a dream to vote for Russia!   NOT!

[fathertime]

No, I don't see the difference FT, there isn't any. You wish to apply that logic because it's Ukraine (not involving you) but don't wish to apply to yourself and the U.S.. It is the same thing.

You are stating (as fact) reasons that see things differently than you.  You are incorrect in doing that.


I do see a difference when you look at the ENTIRE playing field.  I still see differences between Ukraine and the USA, and with those differences I see a case to be made to allow for more independence of certain regions of E. Ukraine. 


If the USA was in a different position and certain states wanted to leave the union that would have to be looked at seriously. 

. Ukraine is in political upheaval but, that is no reason to slice and dice the country or wave dismissively when someone else does. Ukraine borders should be respected, even by Russia. If Russia is so concerned about her *cough* citizens in Ukraine, they should evacuate them rather than annex/invade the sovereign lands of another country or foment unrest leading to civil war. Yes, the same rule of law applies to you as it does there. Thus, be careful what you ask for or ignore.

I don't believe the main reason Russia is likely fomenting is because of the Russian speakers.  I believe they are attempting to keep a pro-Russia buffer region.  The West and Russia disagree about a lot of things and are on opposite sides of the fence, and I think Russia has decided that they sure as hell aren't  going to have another western influenced country on their doorstep.  As it turns out it is possible that a majority of people in this part of the country are supportive of this for their own reasons.  I see how Russia can retain some influence while most of the people get what they want too.  It is imperfect but so are most things.  Since I'm willing to hear and extrapolate what I think are Russia's reasons for doing what they are doing. They have not outright invaded E. Ukraine as they have retained enough influence from within to make some noise. 
 I've decided that to this point what Russia has done is not unreasonable in terms of world balance.  I realize others do, which is fine of course. I also realize that not every single individual does well because of what is happening, some die, some are displaced, some are unhappy.  But as you well know nobody has promised us a rose garden.  I'm thankful I'm not in that region and I'm thankful that we haven't attempted to counter Russia thus far.     


Fathertime! 

[Misha]

The average Russian makes three times the income of the average Ukrainian. It wouldn't be smart for Russia to annex Ukraine and raise their standard of living to that of Russians.

Take Moscow and a few large cities out of the equation and those tied to the oil and gas average, and that average Russian wage would go down quite a bit. The relevant point of comparison would be to compare the average wage of Russians in Voronezh and other such cities to those in Ukraine.


Pensions would go up, but the question is how Russia will be able to keep adding new pensioners to the mix without putting undue pressure on the entire Russian pension system...

[Maxx2]

Take Moscow and a few large cities out of the equation and those tied to the oil and gas average, and that average Russian wage would go down quite a bit. The relevant point of comparison would be to compare the average wage of Russians in Voronezh and other such cities to those in Ukraine.


Pensions would go up, but the question is how Russia will be able to keep adding new pensioners to the mix without putting undue pressure on the entire Russian pension system...

Good points Misha