What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[LiveFromUkraine]

Then it seems several members here are actually McCAIN  ! ! ! !

It certainly looks like you're trying to start something since that comment didn't add anything to the discussion and was inflammatory in nature.


Not the first type of comment made by you I might add.


Welcome to the McCain club Dewed.

[Dewed]

sorry for my poor attempt at humor. it just seems every thread eventually devolves into a festering flame fest...

carry on

[LiveFromUkraine]

sorry for my poor attempt at humor. it just seems every thread eventually devolves into a festering flame fest...

carry on

We have a passionate group here.   

[BillyB]

-Yeah, arm those worthless people so more of THEM can get killed, that will do wonders for morale....The McCain technique is to turn a brush fire into an inferno whenever possible....

If the Russian army invades which gets lots of people get killed, it's not Ukraine's fault or McCain's fault if they were to receive weapons or not. Kind of like blaming the home owner who purchased a gun for security for deaths when an intruder enters the house.


Besides Ukraine, NATO members in east Europe and Japan have asked America to send over weapons. Obama sent a few fighter planes to the Baltics, one ship to the Black Sea and two ships over to Japan. Not enough to take on Russia and certainly not enough to even scare Russia. Another reason many of our allies think Obama is weak. Don't feel sorry for those people if they die. They know the odds are against them but they still would like to have additional weapons so they'd have a fighting chance. What they'd really like is their nukes back.

[Dewed]

IMHO.. the ball is really in the court of the Ukranian citizens. Are they going to fall for the ploy put on by paid Russian loyalists to incite rebellion or are they going to think for themselves and see Putin's somewhat rusty propaganda machine for what is.  That will be the deciding factor on whether Russia moves further westward, and what NATO's response will be.

[fathertime]

Regarding the governmental buildings that the pro-Russians are currently occupying.  One option I haven't heard discussed is to simply let them occupy them.  Bypass the buildings if possible and conduct business elsewhere.  Germany didn't engage France  on the Maginot line, do the Ukrainian authorities really need to engage the Pro-Russians in these fortified buildings, or would isolating them be a smarter move? That is a not a statement, but rather a question.  I see potential pluses and  minuses either way. 


Fathertime! 

[pokerintherear]

Still waiting for the 'great invasion' you guys were soooo certain of weeks ago. The 'ignorant' opinion I respectfully submitted still stands.

Everyone must wait a month.  In my opinion the time around May 25 will be when Russia plays it's card for good or bad. Ukraine election day. It depends if they want to disrupt, influence, or negate the election. Many excuses can be used during this time if needed to save Ukraine's Russian population.

Obama will be on a Memorial Day vacation playing golf and oblivious to what's going on in the world. Putin knows he could be in Kiev before Obama gets back to the Whitehouse on May 27.

[lonedrake]

Yeah, arm those worthless people so more of THEM can get killed,

 I never thought you were out of line before.....but calling them worthless is to much.

[BillyB]

IMHO.. the ball is really in the court of the Ukranian citizens. Are they going to fall for the ploy put on by paid Russian loyalists to incite rebellion or are they going to think for themselves and see Putin's somewhat rusty propaganda machine for what is.

There's still a significant amount of people in Ukraine that are pro Russia. No need for propaganda to get those people to believe. What they need is support. East Ukraine was relatively calm before a few days ago but now they were told it's time to start taking over the government buildings and claim they are separating from Ukraine. This would not have happened if Putin found a viable pro Russian candidate that could get elected as President or if UN monitors were not coming to Ukraine to ensure a fair election.


There are a lot of selfish people in the world and if we're in the minority and someone told us they'll help get our man/woman elected or create our own nation, we may take them up on their offer and do as told to get it done. I'm sure there are plenty of people in America would do something illegal to get a republican or democrat elected and not feel bad because they believe in their own minds they're doing it for the greater good.


Russia can easily give pro Russian's, in Ukraine, citizenship and offer them a safe home in Russia free of discrimination. Russia doesn't want those people to come to Russia. Russia needs those people to stay on the land they're living on.

[fathertime]

I never thought you were out of line before.....but calling them worthless is to much.

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I feel that McCain's idea of arming them to be slaughtered would be tantamount to saying their lives are worthless...I don't feel that way myself. There has to be a better way.imo

Fathertime!

[jone]

I agree, Billy, while in a minority, the people in the occupied buildings are Ukrainians that wish to be part of Russia.  But their numbers are few.  And the longer they sit there, the fewer they are. 

I would guess that the next move would be to try to re-take a building in Kharkiv.   

The demographic for voting has changed in Ukraine.  Moreover, there is now great push back against the Russians.  Quite honestly, Putin is hated by the great majority of Ukrainians.  I don't see any Party of Regions candidates receiving a significant number of votes.

As we get closer to the election, and seeing that there is no political out for Russia, once again, I state that Putin really has no option but to send in the troops.  As Alex says, the only solution that prevents this is if the Kremlin sees that the cost will be too high.

Interestingly, while two buildings are occupied in Donetsk and Lugansk, it is business as usual in these cities.  Less than a mile away, kids are playing in parks, people are strolling on the sidewalks and there is no indication that there is any rebellion ongoing.  This is not conducive to invasion and makes Putin's incursion more difficult.  Certainly, there is no call for a referendum, other than these select 300 people in two buildings.

[Muzh]

You are such a crybaby now I love it!  Your anger contradicts your words though and that is also nice to see.   Why?  Because I refuse to permit you to 'shout down' the opinion I'm giving.  I chuckle at your arrogance and how incorrect you have been...now you are trying to even hedge on your earlier comments. You have misread the situation from the start.  You have 'graced' this forum for years with your intolerance and ignorance.  You were given opportunities to engage in a discussion, but you have failed.


Fathertime!   

Hey baldie, just for you. 

[Muzh]

Correct. I shared this link below elsewhere, here it is for those that have not seen it. The situation is escalating, supplies are being brought in for an invasion. At this point the question is not whether the plans are to invade but if they can be stopped by an event or outside pressure.

http://www.janes.com/article/36324/russian-buildup-around-belgorod-continues

Take a look at the airstrip. Notice how it is covered with crates. An entire airstrip covered with supplies in 10 days. Heavy crates they need to keep from sinking in the mud. Like Jone and many others here I hope you are correct FT, but it is not looking good.

EDIT - btw, we staged our invasion of Iraq over a period of 3 months before going in.

Here is a good indication the US will do nothing.

 Exclusive: Key General Splits With Obama Over Ukraine

[GQBlues]

Here is a good indication the US will do nothing....

...and I hope it stays that way.

Ukrainians didn't want to be part of NATO. Ukrainians didn't want the US meddling in their affairs. By all accounts, outside of the business deals they signed with the US and European corporate bodies, no other segment of US should be in this crisis. Isn't this why the world have the United Nations?

If the Ukrainian population and their leaders didn't have the foresight of the ramifications of what can happen during their siege of Kiev, then why should this be anyone else's business?

Ukrainians made their choice, they should be allowed to pursue their wishes. Isn't this what they wanted? So what's the big deal? Why should this be an international concern or affair that needs to get other countries involved in their internal affairs?

Seriously, how is this the US' concern? Neither Ukraine or Russia is a threat to us. Someone, give me one viable reason why the US should be involved in this crisis?

[jone]

There is none.

The US should not be involved at this point. 

[Larry1]

Here is a link to a Der Spiegel article (translated into English) that asserts German public opinion about Russia is very much divided, with Social Democrats especially viewing Russia more favorably than other Germans do (just as in the days of the USSR).  Unfortunately, it doesn't provide any polling data to support its claims.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/conflict-with-russia-raises-buried-questions-of-german-identity-a-963014.html

[Muzh]

Ukrainians didn't want the US meddling in their affairs.
 

GQ, that depends on who you ask. 
 
I have this friend who in now part of the new government who would point blak tell you she'd be happy to have the Americans in Ukrainian soil. She just left for the border with an inspection team and should be back tomorrow.
 
HOWEVER, I kept telling her this was an Ukrainian issue and that Ukraine should not expect any direct US military aid. I gave her my reasons, same as what I've said here all along. So far, what I told her about US intervention has happened. Nichivo.
 
Between you and me, Ukrainians miscalculated Putin's miscalculations. I would say the majority of Ukrainians were positive that once they got rid of Yanukonvict, they would be dealing with Russia in a more equitable manner.
 
Not so.
 
Slowly but surely the satellite pictures of Russian forces amassing at their borders are making the rounds in social media. As my friend told me, many have made their peace with god.

[Gator]

Seriously, how is this the US' concern?

It's not; it's Europe's concern. 

Europe understands Ukraine and Russia better than we do, and approaches this conflict more as a neighbor than a global adversary. 

If the Ukrainian-Russian conflict reaches critical mass, Europe has the most to lose in the form of possible interruptions of energy from a key supplier. 

If Ukraine revitalizes its economy and draws closer to the West, Europe has the most to gain in the form of increased trade.

Europe should take the lead, yet the US still should support Ukraine's efforts with economic aid and diplomatic measures.   IMO, the aid will not amount to much, and the diplomacy will be the empty rhetoric we have grown to expect from this administration.

[BillyB]

Seriously, how is this the US' concern? Neither Ukraine or Russia is a threat to us. Someone, give me one viable reason why the US should be involved in this crisis?

There are a lot of leaders of the free world asking America to do something about this situation and you're asking why we should be involved? The dangers of doing nothing far outweigh the risks of doing something. As silly and insignificant as those sanctions were, even Obama felt it was important to stop Russia from advancing.


Next time your friend's butt is getting kicked, ask him why you should even get involved. Russia's Ukrainian puppet president got his butt kicked and Russia did something about it. People may not like Putin but they will respect him.


Even if Europe has the most to gain and lose with what's going on, America is affected if our friends are hurting. When world leaders are having their meetings, you can be sure they're talking about how weak Obama is and that undermines America's reputation. Got to rely on themselves for security. Start up the nukes.

[lonedrake]

I feel that McCain's idea of arming them to be slaughtered would be tantamount to saying their lives are worthless...I don't feel that way myself.

Thanks for clarifying that. 

[ML]

Thanks for clarifying that. 

How are you able to post a quote that does not identify the person you are quoting?  I don't even know how to do that; and what is the purpose of doing that?  Just curious.

[fathertime]

Seriously, how is this the US' concern? Neither Ukraine or Russia is a threat to us. Someone, give me one viable reason why the US should be involved in this crisis?

I don't think we should be involved either...I agree with many of the reasons gator gave.


Fathertime! 

[jone]

There are many opinions on what the US should do. 

My feeling is that the US should not be involved.  In this particular instance, the US is not in a position to be involved. 

Many opinions have been voiced about what the end game is for Russia with Ukraine.  I am going to tell you exactly what I think Russia's goal is:

Russia wants a subservient and weak Ukraine that it can dominate.  It is that simple. 

I recently watched a special on Narva, a Russian stronghold in Estonia.  It was remarkable.  The Russian heritage people interviewed all were proud of their Russian heritage.  And they are not happy that Estonia makes them learn Estonian and use it as a language.  But they look across the Narva River and see how the Russians live on the other side and NONE of them want to be part of Russia. 

This is the great fear Russia has.  Other countries, with less resources are doing more for their citizenry.  Russia operates a plutocracy.  A few in Russia have all the wealth and dominate the country.  Still Russia has a second tier economy.  As big as Russia is, it's economy is only the size of Turkey and Italy put together.  While the standard of living is higher than it was only ten years ago, it still is not commiserate with, say, Poland or the Baltic States. 

Right now, the best the the Kremlin can do is to point to a patriotism based on emotion.  Quite honestly, it makes up a bunch of lies.  The citizenry of Russia has no problem applauding Putin when he tells whoppers to his (supposed) enemies.  But does the citizenry know that if he has the propensity to do that outside of Russia, he certainly is doing it to his own people? 

So assuming that Russia wants the Subservient Ukraine, what then would be the end game?

1.  Disrupt business in Ukraine. 

Evidence:  Increasing gas prices.  Demanding advance payments.  Cancelling business contracts so companies no longer have trading partners.

2.  Call for Federalization.

Evidence:  Russia has told Ukraine that it needs to federalize each of the regions of Ukraine to give them autonomy.  Such would dramatically weaken Kyiv and allow Russia to pick off prime parts of Ukraine for its own purposes. 

3.  Sponsor Separatism: 

Evidence:  Various agents of Russia are active throughout Ukraine.  They are on buses, at local gatherings and facilitating unrest where ever they can.  Various estimates puts the number of Russian agents in Ukraine at over 2000, mostly centered in the Eastern cities.

4.  Disrupt Elections:

By targeting the propaganda war with calls for referendums, prior to the national election, Russia is trying to thwart a strong showing by a centralized Ukraine.  The internet war is huge right now.  I alluded to it earlier.  If you go on the Russian based social networks, the cumulative thoughts about Ukraine are words that do not belong on the internet.  Ultimately, the Party of Regions no longer has enough votes to get a Russian heritage candidate elected.  So, absent someone friendly as President, the next best thing to do is make sure whoever is elected has no support and no power.  Over the next couple of weeks expect Moscow to throw the kitchen sink at Ukrainians.  (Fascists, Russian haters, Jew haters, you name it.)

5.  Invasion

I believe that right now the invasion card is off the table.  Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, their leadership knows everything that Russia is doing and is countering it with some success.  That will leave only one option open to V. V. Putin:  Invasion.  Russia has enough agents in Ukraine that it can effectively create attacks on its own people (like was done in Chechnya).  If some Russian nationals get killed in order to get Russian tanks into Ukraine, so be it.  The Kremlin has done it before.  It will certainly do it if all other gambits fail.

So why should the US not get involved?  Quite honestly, this is Europe's play.  I have said from the beginning that Germany should lead any response to Russia.  Not only is Germany one of Russia's top three trading partners (Netherlands and China are the other two) but Germany controls much of EU economics currently.   Finally, the elimination of Natural Gas flowing to Germany would significantly impact German society (although not as much in the upcoming summer months).   One more thought:  You really do not want to get the Preacher's Daughter pissed off.  She is one worthy adversary.  I would much rather have Angela Merkel leading the charge against Russia, then to have BHO trying his unusual brand of diplomacy.   

[lonedrake]

How are you able to post a quote that does not identify the person you are quoting?  I don't even know how to do that; and what is the purpose of doing that?  Just curious.

 Thats just what I have always done. Just highlight the text and copy it. I am going to try and use the quote feature that shows the author more often. I know on some sites people use the quote feature and it keeps adding everything everyone has said. I find that annoying. I also understand that not showing the author of the quote is annoying to some as well. 

[Larry1]

 ... I know on some sites people use the quote feature and it keeps adding everything everyone has said. I find that annoying...

You can use the quote tool and then pare down the extraneous material that you don't want left in.  I  know it's a bit more trouble.