2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[msmob]

The Russian (ex?) PM has it ...

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/04/30/covid-19-installs-a-new-acting-prime-minister-in-russia

VVP has already seemingly replaced Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin ...

[msmob]

Speaking of nations

The UK stats are broken down into England, Scotland, Wales and .... N.Ireland

http://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#countries

0.045 percent of population died of virus in England

0.03 percent of population died of virus in Wales

0.0218 percent of population died of virus in Scotland

0.019 percent of population died of virus in N.Ireland

                      0.0669 percent of the population in Belgium
                      0.0536 percent died of virus in Spain
Comparison : 0.0446 percent died of virus in Italy
                      0.0379 percent died in France
                      0.0291 NL
                      0.027 in Sweden
                      0.0196 percent  died of virus in USA
                      0.009 percent in Canada
                      0.0082 Denmark
                      0.008 in Germany
                      0.00397 Finland
                      0.00389 Norway
                      0.0008 in Russia
                      0.00037 percent in 'Oz
                      0.0004 in N.Zealand

So, England is third only to Belgium and Spain ... 

Russia ten times less than Germany ? .. 


Sorry, if your nation isn't included ...       

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52491210   

Coronavirus: Why so many people are dying in Belgium         

[ML]

As has been stated here before . . . those are the numbers reported by the various nations.
Two caveats:
1) Different reporting criteria.  e.g. some report Corona when something else might have been present.  Some don't report Corona, if another problem at same time.
2) Outright lying.

[msmob]

Good morning, ML

Well, I enjoyed pulling the 'data' into a spreadsheet, anyway ((

[Gator]

As has been stated here before . . . those are the numbers reported by the various nations.
Two caveats:
1) Different reporting criteria.  e.g. some report Corona when something else might have been present.  Some don't report Corona, if another problem at same time.
2) Outright lying.

For example, the lower percentage for Ireland  results from the fact that over 50% of the population has been prophylactically 'pickled' in Guinness, scientifically known to promote a healthy heart and possibly a bane to to the spikes on coronaviruses.     

[msmob]

Not at 9 USD / pint, they aren't )

[Gator]

Not at 9 USD / pint, they aren't )

vs. $2 per 14.9 oz can in the US

http://tinyurl.com/y7yjk4ve

Does Guinness increase in value upon leaving Ireland?      If so that would be "dumping' and in violation of the WTO. 

I understand the price for a pint in Ireland is after pouring from kegs, a process that seemingly takes an hour or so.    

[fathertime]

US real reasoning why the virus started in China.

US workforce in year 2000 157 million.   US workforce currently 127 million

US manufacturing jobs in 2000  17 million  US manufacturing jobs currently 10.8 million

US debt 25 trillion and climbing. 


We have really outdone ourselves this time! China is kicking our tails, so whatever we can try to knock them down a peg, without having to actually work ourselves through it.  US patriots condemn socialism and others that use safety nets, yet are all too willing to pick up their little 600+ dollar weekly trump unemployment checks.   

Fathertime! 

[Gator]

GOOD NEWS

The mathematical term R₀^*, or reproduction rate, is an important variable in defining the potential for a contagious disease to spread.   If R₀ is below one, the epidemic eventually declines to an insignificant  level. 

R₀ is not constant.  It is suppressed by mitigation measures.  Hence its value varies over time, maximizing with the start of an outbreak, and declining with mitigation measures.  The values reported for COVID-19 R₀ are an average over time.  Hence, the value for the current time is a better predictor, and this is referred to as R_t.

      -  30 states have an R_t below 0.9, and this is considered "good." 
      -  19 states plus DC have an R_t between 0.9-1.01, and this is considered "stable."
      -  Only one state has an R_t above 1.01 (WY just below 1.1), and this is considered "bad"

These can be seen in the following dashboard by clicking on R_t.  This dashboard is rich with comparative data, such as comparing number of tests with number of cases.

http://tinyurl.com/y87nh9am


KEY POLICY QUESTIONS

Michigan with perhaps the most stringent mitigation measures has the lowest R_t (approaching 0.7).   Was the suppression of the disease worth the suppression of the economy?   

Many states are now implementing the first phase of the White House Guidelines of reopening America,"  these R_t will increase.  Will this necessitate the having to renew the stringent mitigation measures? 


______________________
^*  R₀ is defined as the average number of people who will contract a contagious disease from a single infected person, in a population previously free of infection (and haven’t been vaccinated). 

[BC]

Gator,

Let's keep in mind that R_t is a result, whether something or nothing done in the past.

Obviously states arrived at their current R_t values by maintaining some form of mitigation. Once mitigation changes, so does R_t even though you won't notice it till some time down the road.

Furthermore, methods to arrive at some R₀ value are not comparative.  IOW would not necessarily apply to other places or populations.

This is why the 'official' guidelines look for a steady decrease and not some stable R_t or other value.

[BillyB]

Michigan with perhaps the most stringent mitigation measures has the lowest R_t (approaching 0.7).   Was the suppression of the disease worth the suppression of the economy?   

They were about to become the next NY. They had to act fast. Better they overreact than react too slow.

[Gator]

Furthermore, methods to arrive at some R₀ value are not comparative. 

Maybe not comparative with what China or Italy reported, yet consistent methods were used for each state in the dashboard I referenced.  The calculation methods are the same, and the data used in the calculations supposedly are comparable (e. g., number of reported infections, incubation period). 

What differs among the states are:

         1) opportunities for exposure (population density, transportation mode, etc.
         2) after infection the degree of contact tracing, testing and quarantining of contacts 
         3) lockdown protocols   

Yes, each state differs regarding the above.   New York is skewed by NYC, which in the early dates of the outbreak had a higher R₀ because  its circumstances created higher opportunity for exposure than a county in the farmbelt.


However, that is  not the point.  New York is comparative with New York, and New York's R_t has declined from 1.55 on March 9 to 0.82  today.     

This is why the 'official' guidelines look for a steady decrease and not some stable R_t or other value.

Correct.  The dashboard's  Rt values are a leading indicator of the degree of decrease in new cases.  We are concerned with the absolute value of R_t, not the stability of its values.   

[Gator]

Related to the above,  the US CDC has revised the estimated R_o for the disease.  It is now believed to have been 5.7 vs. the prior estimate of 2.2 -2.7 based on a scientific analysis of early Wuhan data prior to January 23 for domestic travel and reported infections.

What is the significance?  The prior estimates suggested a doubling time of 6-7 days vs. the revised estimate of  2.3 - 3.3 days if no intervention.     

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

[BC]

Wow Gator, that is a very significant change.

Regarding progress of any state or country, a 14 day decline means that efforts are being made to not just stay at status quo, but with quite some 'force' to drive the count down.  This implies also a certain 'momentum' that carries on after some restrictions are lifted.

I still maintain that a 'plateau' is not the time to drop the level of mitigation.  A plateau in new cases and large percentage of infected vs tests taken is a sign maybe not enough testing is being done.  A steady decline in new cases maintaining testing level or even increasing the number and breadth of testing is indicative of really beating the virus at its game.

New York state for example seems to be doing a good job beating the beast down, but still has a way to go with still around 4k infections detected per day - far to many to track and trace and well over twice that in Italy now which is falling rapidly (1200 today).



Texas should definitely not be loosening mitigation now and in fact should be tightening them.



Unfortunately, it seems the opposite is happening with NY waiting and TX opening up...

[2tallbill]

As I have posted before . . . bankruptcies and reorganizations are common place in real estate developments.

That point has been made to Moby at least 20 times by me personally.

He just dusts off that line and posts it again and again and again and
again and again and again and again and again and again and again
and again and again and again and again and again and again and
again and again and

He only has about 25 arguments all of which have been refuted
so he just recycles them.

[Gator]

I still maintain that a 'plateau' is not the time to drop the level of mitigation. 

Overall, yes.  However, exceptions may exist within a state that is plateauing because data are skewed by large outbreaks (e. g., NYC, Miami, and New Orleans)     

New York state for example seems to be doing a good job beating the beast down, but still has a way to go with still around 4k infections detected per day - far to many to track and trace and well over twice that in Italy now which is falling rapidly (1200 today).

Partially agree.   Depends upon the capability of the state to perform the contact tracing.  The objective is to keep infections from overwhelming the healthcare system.  Key to that is contact tracing of new cases and quarantining of contacts.  To box in the disease, contacts of contacts must be quarantined and we don't have that capability. 

Upstate New York differs remarkably from NYC.  There may be large regions where some reopening could take place.  Florida is partially reopening everywhere except for the Miami area.   Florida still allows counties and cities to require more mitigation than required by the state.

Texas should definitely not be loosening mitigation now and in fact should be tightening them

On a 3-day averaging, Texas had exhibited some decline, yet that seems to have started to increase again.  Perhaps some parts of Texas are ready for reopening. 

Successful reopening will require compliance by individuals with social distancing, face masks, hand washing, etc.  Many Americans, especially so in Texas, have a libertarian spirit, and compliance is not a driving factor.  I went  to the post office today.  People spaced themselves, yet out of 10-12 in line, three  were not wearing masks.  Pardon my racial assumptions,  they likely were Democrat voters.     

[msmob]

That point has been made to Moby at least 20 times by me personally.

He just dusts off that line and posts it again and again and again and
again and again and again and again and again and again and again
and again and again and again and again and again and again and
again and again and

He only has about 25 arguments all of which have been refuted
so he just recycles them.

You seem to be somewhat confused,Beel

Some folks mention 'business acumen' and 'Trampu' in the same sentence .. so, naturally, having to 'come to an agreement with creditors' to the tune of BILLIONS of dollars is a stand ou clue as to serial FAILING ..

[Boethius]

Someone upthread mentioned the high number of fatalities in Europe vs the US, and seemed to blame it on socialized medicine.

Most European countries were hit with a more deadly strain of COVID-19 than parts of the US, and even China.  Type B, which hit most of Europe (Type C prevailed in Italy) is far more deadly than Type A, which prevailed in China and on the US West Coast.  Type B was prevalent on the US East Coast. 

Other factors at play are likely spread of the virus, as Europeans tend to live in closer quarters than Americans, more use of public transportation in Europe (an efficient way to spread the virus), and possibly, the large numbers of elderly affected, particularly in Italy.

A better comparison of the use of public vs private healthcare would be the US to Canada.  The US has a greater number of densely populated cities, but vehicle use is similar, and use of public transportation in large cities is also similar in the two countries.  Even in terms of socialized vs private medicine, it's a superior comparison to Europe, as the latter has mixed medical care (private and public), whereas Canada is solely publicly funded healthcare.  Finally, in Canada, like in the Eastern US, the  Type B virus has been the dominant strain of COVID-19.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[msmob]

I keep reading stories that that folks who died in December, in Europe, of the virus and it's complications.

Here's another one..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554

Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December'

A patient diagnosed with pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.

Dr Yves Cohen told French media a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.

The patient, a man in his 50s who has since fully recovered, said he has no idea where he caught the virus as he hadn't been to any infected areas.

This news means the virus may have arrived in France almost a month earlier than previously thought.

[BC]

This news means the virus may have arrived in France almost a month earlier than previously thought.[/i]

Maybe it originated there?

As noted early on, many early cases were likely masked in the background noise of the flu season.  Can't wait to get tested to see if the very bad bout of flu I had in early February was Covid.

[BillyB]

Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December'

Maybe it originated there?

I've said it before and I'll say it again. My uncle was touring China last year. His tour group was scheduled to stop in Wuhan in the middle of November. His train was stopped by the Chinese military outside the city and they told the train full of tourists to go around the city.

China accused American soldiers of bringing the virus into China during the Military World Games held in Wuhan. Those games were held in October 2019. They just made an indirect admission the virus was in Wuhan in the month of October much earlier than their Dec 31st report to WHO.

[BC]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

yeah.. guess I forgot the irony sticker.

[msmob]

BillyB

What is it with you that you see 'affirmation' of conspiracy theories with tenuous events ...

YES, it would be suspicious in most other nations, but given tourists couldn't get near Tiananmen Square for the official New Year celebrations ..

[msmob]

In Maxx' thread about opening a restaurant in Georgia there is mention of 'things going back to normal and Sweden and N.Zealand come up.

Sweden has tried the herd immunity tactic and we simply do not know if 'herd immunity' exists ... we DO know that elderly people in care homes have needlessly lost lives .

New Zealand never had the cases that N.America and Europe have had and is not looking forward to opening up her borders to folks from there ..  So 'normal' is what ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52540733

[BillyB]

BillyB

What is it with you that you see 'affirmation' of conspiracy theories with tenuous events ...

Anything that deviates from the official Chinese narrative is a conspiracy theory to you?  One of us certainly doesn't know how the world works.

YES, it would be suspicious in most other nations, but given tourists couldn't get near Tiananmen Square for the official New Year celebrations ..

Are you saying tanks were running over students in Wuhan and the Chinese didn't want tourists to watch?