<tit>
SENSING TROUBLE<stl>Preparations for a war on Iran are getting into high gear
<aut>Vladimir Dernovoi
<src>Russky Kurier, No 5, February 6 - 12, 2006, p. 7
<sum>A resolution on stiffer sanctions against Iran was forwarded to the US Senate last week.</sum>
<cov>A ban on arms deals
The document suggests restriction of US aid to the countries whose companies invest in the Iranian energy production industry and a ban on arms deals between Iran on the one hand and Russia and China on the other.
Evan Bay, the author of the resolution is not an economist. Instead, he sits on the senatorial committees for intelligence and armed forces... Consequences of the document are easily predictable: sanctions today, air raids tomorrow. But air raids have to be prepared.
Hence the appeal in the resolution to the UN Security Council to introduce a stiff regime of international inspections (by the IAEA) in Iran. Something like what was forced on Iraq in the wake of the Persian Gulf War in 1991.
"A ban on arms deals with Iran, including the ones involving Russia and China, is necessary," the resolution stated. It stated as well that the decision of the government of Russia to sell $1 billion worth of weapons to Iran (29 antiaircraft complexes, that is) would "damage American-Russian relations."
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov already explained that the situation with the Iranian nuclear folder was not going to have any effect on the Tor-M1 complexes contract with Iran and that the deal in question met all international requirements.
As good a complex as it is, Tor-M1 does not reach far and therefore cannot solve the problem of defense of Iran. If Tehran gets some, the Iranian campaign will cost the United States a lot. Had Iran received some S-300 complexes, American victory would have been outright problematic but Ivanov says that the sale of S-300s is not even discussed. By the way, Israel should have approached Moscow for some S-300s because they are good against ballistic and guided missiles. After all, Iran may be counted on to strike back.
American intelligence reports that Chinese companies were involved in the work on germ and chemical warfare means and nuclear weapons for Iran. In 2001, Tehran bought from Ukraine twenty or so X-55 high-precision missiles with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers. They are much better than then American Patriots that defend the Israeli skies.
And yet, will Russia supply Iran with Tor-M1s? It depends on the maturity of the state and independence of its foreign policy. On the one hand, Moscow has to think of its interests in Iran that may earn it billions. On the other hand, this position does not exactly check with the course for membership in the World Trade Organization and integration into the international community.
The Americans may decide on a compromise yet. They may offer Russia a loan ($2-3 billion) for oil production somewhere in the northern seas. And Russia will scrap its advanced technologies quite in line with Washington's colonial policy.
In short, the resolution does not mean a war yet, but it is certainly a step closer to it.
<tit>
GAMKRELIDZE: WHOEVER BLEW UP THE GAS PIPELINE KNEW WHAT THEY WERE DOING
<stl>Chairman of the New Right Party of Georgia believes that Tbilisi and Moscow are on the threshold of an armed conflict
<aut>Yelena Mayakova
<src>Versiya, No 5, February 6 - 12, 2006, p. 8
<sum>An interview with David Gamkrelidze, Chairman of the oppositionist New Right Party of Georgia and member of the national parliament.</sum>
<cov>Whom to blame
Question: Whom to blame for the deteriorating relations between our countries?
David Gamkrelidze: Both countries are at fault for the deterioration. Neither wants to meet the other halfway. Explosion of the Mozdok-Tbilisi gas pipeline soured the bilateral relations for good. The government of Georgia launched a viciously anti-Russian campaign.
Question: But this mutual pertinacity must promote some objectives, right? Why add fuel to the already smoldering conflict?
David Gamkrelidze: Ownership of the gas pipeline from Russia to Georgia and Armenia is at stake. The winner will control distribution of gas in Georgia. Tbilisi does not want to build an alternative gas pipeline or, probably, cannot. Its construction will take billions of dollars and years...
In the meantime, Georgia is resisting Russia's efforts to take over the gas pipeline. It is a matter of Georgian energy security.
Question: Is there a chance of a civilized solution to the problem? Must it be threats?
David Gamkrelidze: There is the project of deliveries of Azerbaijani gas to Turkey. In early 2007, Georgia will start receiving 8 billion cubic meters of gas by it every year. This is going to become a serious alternative to Russian gas. That's civilized resistance to Moscow's attempts to use gas as an instrument of politics.
Unfortunately, gas scandals are not the only problem affecting the Georgian-Russian relations. Georgia plunged into the energy crisis in a period when Russia is supposed to withdraw its peacekeepers from the territory of our country. It does not take a genius to guess what will happen if Russia tried to stall for time. Georgia and Russia are already on the threshold of an armed conflict. When the Russian embassy in Georgia and Georgian in Russia were left without gas and electric power, it essentially marked the beginning of an undeclared war. Neither Georgia nor Russia stands to benefit from this war.
Question: Flights of Russian military planes above Georgia were banned in late January. Was the ban tied to the energy crisis and the matter of Russian military bases too?
David Gamkrelidze: Excuses for decisions like that do not take a lot of ingenuity to invent. Judging by official explanations, the matter concerns Russian debts to Georgia to the sum of approximately one million laris. Either Russia settles the debt, or its military planes may go on taking roundabout routes. We are not naive, however, and we know that the decision is inseparable from the state of affairs with numerous problems in our relations. Presence of the Russian military bases on the territory of Georgia is one of these problems too.
Question: Do you really think that all of that may end in an armed conflict?
David Gamkrelidze: There will be no official war between us, that's clear. Or, to be more exact, Russia will not be officially involved, the way it was not in the course of the armed conflict in Abkhazia. I do not rule out the possibility of the following scenario: a conflict in Tskhinvali when Russian peacekeepers are told to leave Georgia. Russia will not be able to remain there because presence of foreign peacekeepers requires the consent of both involved parties. On the other hand, peacekeepers may remain there as volunteers defending Kokoity's separatist regime. And when it comes down to automatic rifle fire in Tskhinvali, it will be next to impossible to discover who provoked the conflict', Kokoity's volunteers or Russian secret services. A serious war may begin.
Question: A war, like in Chechnya?
David Gamkrelidze: I do not think that it will reach this magnitude. In the meantime, there are men in the inner circle of President Saakashvili who believe that the problem of control over Tskhinvali may be solved in a rapid military operation that will begin with seizure of the Rok Pass. Even Saakashvili himself may be thinking so.
Question: Russian political scientists are convinced that Saakashvili deliberately aggravates the conflict acting on orders from the United States and European Union...
David Gamkrelidze: On the contrary, the United States and European Union insist on a peaceful settlement of the conflict. I would not say, however, that our president and government are listening. Predicting what Saakashvili will say or do is very difficult. He may side up with the president of Iran tomorrow, with George W. Bush the day after, and become Vladimir Putin's closest pal after that. On day four, he may condemn the president of Azerbaijan and side up with Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine. Now that Azerbaijan helped Georgia in the energy crisis, Ilham Aliyev is Saakashvili's best friend. As for what Saakashvili will pull off tomorrow, nobody knows.
Question: What will it take to restore the relations between Russia and Georgia?
David Gamkrelidze: First and foremost, political will. I watch Georgian and Russian TV channels, you know. I saw Putin's press conference. I'm under the impression that neither country really wants to restore our relations. The presidents pin the blame on each other. Only a meeting of the presidents will restore the relations between our countries, but someone has to make the first step. Nobody is doing it for fear that it will make him look weak.
RVR
