2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[tfcrew]

[msmob]

LIFE IS RETURNING TO NORMAL

Not there yet, but we have progress.

Florida, an epicenter a month ago with 10,000 new cases per day reported  1,812 new cases yesterday, only 59 hospitalizations, and 22 deaths.

Daily data can vary, yet the death totals this week are very promising: for my county of 1.5 million. 

  Day         My County Deaths 

Sep 7                       0                                           
Sep 6                       3
Sep 5                       1
Sep 4                       2
Sep 3                       2
Sep 2                       3
Sep 1                       0

I hope you are right, Gator

The UK ( nearly 70 million)  or approx 5 times less people has been having FAR less cases ..

Last week the kids went back to school in N.Ireland,England and Wales and suddenly cases are spiking, drastically ..Scotland has had spikes since they sent back, too.

The Rep. of Ireland - which even quarantined folk coming from GB - was worse, before the UK spike ?!

The problem?  People started behaving, normally 

MY county  has been seeing falls for three months and the last two weeks saw less than fifty new cases ( population 634k )



and no deaths ..  That  would be c.140 cases if your county


Your 'normal' is scary to me .. and if other parts of the UK and Ireland are climbing...  I expect we'll be back to 'locking up' our Ma, again (




 

[BC]

What is the death count for Red State America?

Gator,

When the virus was hitting NY hard, folks said 'but.. the US has a lot fewer deaths than other countries.  When we had more deaths than other countries we said: "per capita, we're doing fine man, really great, we got this".  Then the virus spread and we went to 'red better than blue' states, then 'my state' now we're down to 'my county', and always, it was 'democrat led city' problem.  The slice of the American pie is getting razor-thin, very quick.

It just goes back to the old' 'If I am ok, all is ok'; 'if something's wrong, it's their fault' stinking thinking that is the very root of our American problem.  If we want to tout being the Great United States of America, we also need to take responsibility for it and all of it. 

Pick any red state, and I'll show you a region in Italy that is lower.  Pick any county, and I'll find a province in Italy that is lower, pick a town, and I can do the same.  Along those same lines, folks here could have blamed 'those damned northerners' (and yes there is a political division in Italy also) in Lombardy and Milan all day long and it doesn't change a thing.

But such is meaningless rationalisation, a manner of thinking that somehow gives us false comfort from the truth we do not want to see. Neither does it change any facts. First, Florida was somehow immune and then got hit, off to the top 3 of the charts.  It is really great things are improving there, but the virus doesn't care and ain't leaving anytime soon.  It still owns you to the tune of 553 deaths per million to Italy's 588, but growing much faster at an average rate of 100 per day vs 10 per day for a country with 3 times the population.  Add to that a positivity rate in Italy that hovers around 2% vs over 13% in Florida. These are facts that even startled me.

Yeah, it got really bad here in Italy, really bad... but by working together the Italians and other countries turned it around and owned this virus. For sure a hard winter season is ahead, and it's far from over, but I'm confident they'll suck it up and work together as a country again to stay on top of things and do much better than the first time.  Unfortunately, I don't have the same confidence in the US or even Florida.

For all the finger-pointing, criticism and even ridicule of how others were doing so badly for many months, despite the most expensive health system in the world and the 'greatest' of leaders, we now know as a fact that we were not able to do better than 'them' and are now headed towards being a lot worse off than almost every other country on the planet because of only one reason: We haven't learned to work together as a nation.  Maybe we should start calling ourselves the "United only in Geography States of America" instead?

Our last gasp excuse in these discussions seems to be: '...but we are free!!' but think about that a bit. If we no longer have the capacity to recognise and fight a common enemy, how can we call ourselves free?  To do so is either ignorant or arrogant.

Again, the virus is not killing us; we are, with no one to blame but ourselves.

[Gator]

The problem?  People started behaving, normally 

Correct!   That was and still is the problem, compounded by the large number of asymptomatic yet infectious cases. 

SARS had a higher CFR, yet was transmissible only with symptomatic cases. 

[Gator]

When the virus was hitting NY hard, folks said 'but.. the US has a lot fewer deaths than other countries.  When we had more deaths than other countries we said: "per capita, we're doing fine man, really great, we got this".  Then the virus spread and we went to 'red better than blue' states, then 'my state' now we're down to 'my county', and always, it was 'democrat led city' problem.  The slice of the American pie is getting razor-thin, very quick.

It just goes back to the old' 'If I am ok, all is ok'; 'if something's wrong, it's their fault' stinking thinking that is the very root of our American problem.  If we want to tout being the Great United States of America, we also need to take responsibility for it and all of it. 

Pick any red state, and I'll show you a region in Italy that is lower.  Pick any county, and I'll find a province in Italy that is lower, pick a town, and I can do the same.  Along those same lines, folks here could have blamed 'those damned northerners' (and yes there is a political division in Italy also) in Lombardy and Milan all day long and it doesn't change a thing.

A view from 30,000 feet.  Come down to the ground where critical decisions were made.  And rethink this attitude that it is Trump's fault.     

Go to the epicenter in the Spring.....New York.   In the first surge of the infection, Trump quickly expanded hospital capacity.  The governor decided not to use these additional beds and instead returned recovering cases to their nursing homes.  BOOM!   And Biden says this is Trump's fault. 

And you echo the same in your own way as if Trump had control over young people finding ways to socialize and then returning home to infect their family.   And Biden says this is Trump's fault as if Trump should have known COVID-19's asymptomatic pathways for transmission were significant.   And Biden says it is Trump's fault as if the issue was only about public health, with economic health not even a consideration.

....now headed towards being a lot worse off than almost every other country on the planet because of only one reason: We haven't learned to work together as a nation. 

And what party has obstructed Trump at every turn, even starting before he was elected?   I assert much of what ails the nation would be better if the Democrats worked together with their Republican counterpart as done in the long history of our nation.      No need if the press will cover for you and it is deemed the only way to regain power. 

[fathertime]

For all the finger-pointing, criticism and even ridicule of how others were doing so badly for many months, despite the most expensive health system in the world and the 'greatest' of leaders, we now know as a fact that we were not able to do better than 'them' and are now headed towards being a lot worse off than almost every other country on the planet because of only one reason: We haven't learned to work together as a nation.  Maybe we should start calling ourselves the "United only in Geography States of America" instead?
 

We here in the states will still find a way to deflect and criticize other nations response while pounding our collective chest insisting we are better. 

Our last gasp excuse in these discussions seems to be: '...but we are free!!' but think about that a bit. If we no longer have the capacity to recognise and fight a common enemy, how can we call ourselves free?  To do so is either ignorant or arrogant.

Again, the virus is not killing us; we are, with no one to blame but ourselves.

We are less free than other nations nowadays.  We (US citizens) are not welcome in travel destination nations because the virus is deemed out of control here.   Europeans are welcome in those same places.   So looking at things that way we are less free than 'they' are.

Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

And what party has obstructed Trump at every turn, even starting before he was elected?   I assert much of what ails the nation would be better if the Democrats worked together with their Republican counterpart as done in the long history of our nation.      No need if the press will cover for you and it is deemed the only way to regain power.

...all that we would do is need to change Trump to obama, and democrat to republican and it would represent what obama dealt with for 8 years.   The bias you carry is noted and a part of the problem.

Fathertime! 

[GQBlues]

Sheesh...so much silly drama in this *competition*. Cases in Europe had been on the rise for the month of August. Just like any other places or country.

Get a grip. No one is going to be in a situation where the healthcare facilities will be playing god soon to choose who dies or live. At least not in the US anyway...

Everything is politicized. One thing I know for sure, as a Republican and those like me, our farts smell like roses.

[BC]

A view from 30,000 feet.  Come down to the ground where critical decisions were made.  And rethink this attitude that it is Trump's fault.     

Go to the epicenter in the Spring.....New York.   In the first surge of the infection, Trump quickly expanded hospital capacity.  The governor decided not to use these additional beds and instead returned recovering cases to their nursing homes.  BOOM!   And Biden says this is Trump's fault.

Gator,

Your reply seems to show denial and deflection. I didn't mention Trump but instead 'we' as a people failing.  But ok, what Trump did for NY is great, but it was damage control but did not address the problem of the virus spreading.  The virus problem could have been restricted to the NE coast as it was already well contained on the west coast at the time. Had the virus been contained as elsewhere we wouldn't have even half the deaths we do today nor the financial consequences. Trump was not a proactive leader getting ahead of the virus and never had a plan to do so, his whole intent was to try and save the economy for his own benefit, all the while believing something would save the day for him, some medicine or that the virus would magically go away with summer.  He made bad bets for the nation and lost, even against the advice of some of the best advisors.

[BillyB]

'we' as a people failing. 

Maybe people are just being people and that is not a fail. Thousands of liberals attending Burning man festival in multiple locations. Since the event was cancelled, they made their own events. After their done, they'll go back to criticizing Trump for his failure to enact policies to stop the spread.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/thousands-of-burning-man-fans-violated-social-distancing-laws-to-hold-their-own-festivals-in-the-nevada-desert-and-on-california-beaches/ar-BB18NvDz?li=BBnb7Kz

Trump was not a proactive leader getting ahead of the virus and never had a plan to do so, his whole intent was to try and save the economy for his own benefit, all the while believing something would save the day for him, some medicine or that the virus would magically go away with summer.

That's your opinion, not fact. When Trump shut down flights from China, he did it to stop the virus from entering the USA for our benefit. How could he think it was to save his economy at that time? If you looked what happened in China and the data they released, the virus didn't look that bad. While the Democrats were busy impeaching Trump, they didn't care about working with Trump to stop the growing pandemic. They even criticized Trump for taking harsh action against China calling it a racist move. Then Pelosi recommended people to come to China Town in San Fran and NYC mayor telling his citizens to go out and eat. They were thinking about saving their local economies ignoring the growing danger of the virus spreading in our nation.

You can twist things anyway you want but the facts are Red States and cities are doing better than Blue States and cities when handling the virus and their local economies aren't suffering as much.

He made bad bets for the nation and lost, even against the advice of some of the best advisors.

Fauci said Trump always listened to his advice. Luckily Fauci was not advising Trump in January when he shut down people coming in from China because Fauci was against travel bans. Even the infectious disease experts from WHO advised against travel bans because it would unnecessarily hurt nations economies.

[BC]

Maybe people are just being people and that is not a fail.

It is when we don't learn from the mistakes of others.

That's your opinion, not fact. When Trump shut down flights from China, he did it to stop the virus from entering the USA for our benefit. How could he think it was to save his economy at that time? If you looked what happened in China and the data they released, the virus didn't look that bad.

We all could watch how fast it was spreading in real-time, country by country.  We had plenty of lead time to plan ahead instead of thinking it would not hit us.  Trump did stop some folks, but quickly went into denial mode thinking it was already over.

You can twist things anyway you want but the facts are Red States and cities are doing better than Blue States and cities when handling the virus and their local economies aren't suffering as much.

Are both colors not part of the US?  Add up the population of all red states, then blue states. add the number of dead as well and calculate deaths per million.  I'd be interested to see if there is really that much difference.  Use the 2016 election map.  Also consider we have a national economy that is interconnected and rely on both colours..

Fauci said Trump always listened to his advice. Luckily Fauci was not advising Trump in January when he shut down people coming in from China because Fauci was against travel bans. Even the infectious disease experts from WHO advised against travel bans because it would unnecessarily hurt nations economies.

All countries had politicians and scientists working together.  Those that did better were those where politicians also were able to change their views and decisions together as new data and developments emerged.  Trump was not able to adapt.

[BillyB]

Trump did stop some folks, but quickly went into denial mode thinking it was already over.

After Trump enacted a travel ban, you can't think of anything else he did to follow up because you believe he thought it was over or even a hoax? If you worked for the NY Times, would you write an article saying Trump went into denial mode after enacting a travel ban?

Europe was accusing Trump of hogging up all the PPE in the world because he cared about the safety of our medical professionals above theirs. They criticized his travel ban on Europe. Trump asked and forced American companies to make PPE and medical equipment such as ventilators. He investing billions of dollars into finding treatments and vaccines. A lot of that money went to foreign labs to secure first rights for Americans. Trump delegated responsibility to State and local leaders. He appointed Pence in charge of a task force to give everybody what they need. He and his team of doctors and experts had daily coronavirus briefings to educate Americans how to stop the spread and what the government is doing.

[BC]

Billy,

first and foremost, the best cure for the virus remains to prevent folks from getting it in the first place.  Anything else is just a bandaid on an existing wound until that magic bullet is found.  That's not to say we don't need bandaids, but it's not the whole deal.

[BillyB]

Billy,

first and foremost, the best cure for the virus remains to prevent folks from getting it in the first place. 

We did that by stopping work and hiding at home. We are past that phase now. We can't continue to harm everybody who's living. We know more about the behavior of this virus now so we protect the elderly and have kids learn online. State and local leaders, Republican and Democrat, have eased restrictions so we can get back to living and work. Doing what's best for the nation is what should be considered and factoring in a healthy economy is part of that decision. You and I need to accept the easing of restrictions as the right thing to do. Even restrictions in San Francisco eased up. Pelosi can now get her hair done in a salon without getting into trouble.

[Faux Pas]

Billy,

first and foremost, the best cure for the virus remains to prevent folks from getting it in the first place.  Anything else is just a bandaid on an existing wound until that magic bullet is found.  That's not to say we don't need bandaids, but it's not the whole deal.

Therein lies the rub. Nobody know how to prevent folks from catching the virus in the first place. Masks, gloves, social distancing is not scientifically proven one single iota to prevent folks from getting it. It's merely suggested and in some places mandated. You're armchair quarterbacking concerning Trumps response as if it was subpar. I contend it was not. There were some serious mistakes made IE sending infected folks into nursing homes rather than treating them in the hospitals. Trump didn't make those mistakes. You seem to cling to the total lock down as the only valid response. Perhaps in your borderline socialist Italy it was. It was not a valid response in the US. There's really no proof even that was effective in Italy. How long were you on lock down 60 days?

[BC]

How long were you on lock down 60 days?

45 days strict, only necessary travels to grocer, pharmacy, essential jobs and 45 days planned and monitored back to new normal.

45 days allows for 3 infection cycles of 15 days.  Enough so that most all infections died out on the spot, away from others.

[Gator]

I didn't mention Trump but instead 'we' as a people failing.

 

Next time you write something critical and it is not about Trump, please alert us because it will go under my radar.

It sure did sound like the usual anti-Trump rhetoric coming from Democrats.   

But ok, what Trump did for NY is great, but it was damage control but did not address the problem of the virus spreading. 

Repeating what I have said frequently and seems to go over the heads of Europeans -  state governors have primary responsibility for public health.  The high number of American deaths that you harp about occurred mostly in blue states, where governors and mayors made bad public health decisions.   Later, some red state governors made bad decisions in reopening too soon and added to the growing death toll. 

Trump was not a proactive leader getting ahead of the virus and never had a plan to do so, his whole intent was to try and save the economy for his own benefit, all the while believing something would save the day for him, some medicine or that the virus would magically go away with summer.  He made bad bets for the nation and lost, even against the advice of some of the best advisors.

Nonsense.  Please summarize your evidence for each  sweeping claim.           

BTW, don't forget scientists too were changing their advice (e. g., no masks, then masks). 

[Gator]

All countries had politicians and scientists working together.  Those that did better were those where politicians also were able to change their views and decisions together as new data and developments emerged.  Trump was not able to adapt.

Name instances where Trump went against a consensus of scientists.   

Name instances where the Democrats wanted to work with Republicans and were denied.   

[Faux Pas]

45 days strict, only necessary travels to grocer, pharmacy, essential jobs and 45 days planned and monitored back to new normal.

45 days allows for 3 infection cycles of 15 days.  Enough so that most all infections died out on the spot, away from others.

But Italy still has new infections. It had 1150 yesterday. In fact it is currently trending up. Perhaps lock down slowed the infections or perhaps it didn't

[Gator]

But Italy still has new infections. It had 1150 yesterday. In fact it is currently trending up. Perhaps lock down slowed the infections or perhaps it didn't

I wonder if this takes Italy off of BC's list of nations that don't need a vaccine. 

[Faux Pas]

I wonder if this takes Italy off of BC's list of nations that don't need a vaccine.

  Unlikely. The vaccine seems to be the double shot kool-aid narrative of the left. I'm not anti-science. Quite the opposite but what has passed for science in the pandemic is nothing short of shocking. What's been deemed and touted as science seems to be nothing more than a pacifier

http://www.rt.com/op-ed/500000-covid19-math-mistake-panic/?fbclid=IwAR1ZNOyH5RthKsB1JKLwD3qVc3bz4E9Hur45awbK5vH0ZZwjgO_Wtqrz9nQ

[BillyB]

One leading vaccine has been put on hold for a safety issue. They are investigating an unexplained illness. Over 100 vaccines that are currently in development worldwide, I predict only a handful will be accepted.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/oxford-vaccine-trial-on-hold-because-of-safety-issue/ar-BB18PRzl?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

[Gator]

I wrote this 10 days ago about the significance of OBESITY. 

   
You like to compare US with Italy, saying the US is slightly younger....... Lifestyle and diet certainly differ. Obesity has been identified as a prime preexisting condition resulting in more grave outcomes for those infected with COVID.   The US rate of obesity is  36.2%, Italy's 19.9%.

Today, Washington Post ran an article saying  "Obesity is turning out to be one of the key indicators that a person will have a particularly bad run-in with covid-19.... With one of the highest obesity rates in the world, some experts think it has contributed to the stunning coronavirus death rate in the United States."



http://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-obesity-risks/2020/09/04/0f370980-e22f-11ea-b69b-64f7b0477ed4_story.html?u

Other findings:

"Early analyses point to obesity itself — rather than the comorbidities it creates — as a separate precursor to poor outcomes.....people under age 60 who generally fare better than the elderly are two to three times more likely to be admitted to the hospital for covid-19 if they are obese."

Among the many interesting reasons given are:

1.  "Fat is not inert; it secretes chemicals that can influence bodily systems. It may affect the angiotensin system that helps regulate blood pressure and blood flow, leading to more severe symptoms."

2.  "....people with obesity seem to have more ACE2 receptors, the gateway the virus uses to invade cells."

3.  Obese people have more androgens and male hormones, and a "....a mechanism of the disease is hormonally regulated. That could explain why men are doing worse, and why prepubescent children are faring well in the pandemic."   

4.   "...the hormone leptin, which regulates metabolism and appetite, is found in greater amounts in obese people ....High levels of leptin have been associated with a type of systemic inflammatory state.  ....leptin may be the link between obesity and its high prevalence as a comorbidity."

Trump is obese so the US deaths must be Trump's fault. 

[Gator]

One leading vaccine has been put on hold for a safety issue. They are investigating an unexplained illness. Over 100 vaccines that are currently in development worldwide, I predict only a handful will be accepted.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/oxford-vaccine-trial-on-hold-because-of-safety-issue/ar-BB18PRzl?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

 Bad news!  That is the vaccine being developed by Oxford-AstraZeneca, and it was one of the more promising vaccines in Phase 3 trials. 

[BC]

Next time you write something critical and it is not about Trump, please alert us because it will go under my radar.

It sure did sound like the usual anti-Trump rhetoric coming from Democrats.

Contempt prior to investigation? ... or reading?    

Repeating what I have said frequently and seems to go over the heads of Europeans -  state governors have primary responsibility for public health.  The high number of American deaths that you harp about occurred mostly in blue states, where governors and mayors made bad public health decisions.   Later, some red state governors made bad decisions in reopening too soon and added to the growing death toll. 

Out of curiosity I crunched the numbers.  Blue 731 vs Red 463 deaths per million based the 2016 state results.  Now before the Red team starts cheering that still represents 86,588 deaths.  Blue states 103,088.  Still I'll stick to deaths per million since I harp on it so much.  Please do consider the major NE outbreak has been tamed for quite a while and red states are catching up rather quickly despite CA and IL.  Consider mitigating factors such as population density in the various states, current restrictions and decide if the numbers really represent such a great difference.  As we well know, the crisis is ongoing and changes rather rapidly.  Unfortunately deaths seem to linger on forever and drop very slowly.  A difference it is but certainly not a world of difference, much less universe.


Quote from: BC on Yesterday at 16:55:00 (added for context)

Trump was not a proactive leader getting ahead of the virus and never had a plan to do so, his whole intent was to try and save the economy for his own benefit, all the while believing something would save the day for him, some medicine or that the virus would magically go away with summer.  He made bad bets for the nation and lost, even against the advice of some of the best advisors.

Gator:

Nonsense.  Please summarize your evidence for each  sweeping claim.         

 

Name instances where Trump went against a consensus of scientists.

   

Lets make it simple and divide up the homework.  The WH came out with reopening guidelines, once revised.  http://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/07/white-house-cdc-reopening-guidelines-243778

Here are the 'official' WH guidelines http://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Can you help out and show me that states followed these guidelines and are doing so today?  ohh.. wait.. seems someone has already done it..  http://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

If you believe Trump has urged states to follow the guidelines do a google search for terms like Trump urges states reopen etc and you'll get many news reports like this one from 26 May

President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged states to open up from coronavirus lockdowns “ASAP,” as he celebrated strong gains for U.S. stocks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-urges-states-to-open-asap-as-dow-surges-2020-05-26

and continues until today:

Trump accuses North Carolina of using coronavirus restrictions to hurt his re-election chances
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/08/trump-north-carolina-using-coronavirus-hurt-re-election-chances/5721169002/

Why in the world would Trump push states to open in total disregard of his own life saving guidelines?  Wouldn't even you consider such as 'throwing a wrench in the works'?  Doesn't total disregard of the only national reopening guideline published end up pitting one state against another?  I really believe CA was pushed into reopening earlier than it should have both externally and internally watching other states disregard the guidelines.

BTW, don't forget scientists too were changing their advice (e. g., no masks, then masks).

Indeed.  During lockdown, or stay at home etc masks are not needed.  Also remember (again) that there was a dire need to conserve PPE for front line healthcare workers that were experiencing shortages and causing disproportionate deaths and infections among these workers.

For months, China that has managed their infections, is today producing massive amounts of PPE.  A booming business.  Scalpers on ebay are out of business as prices dropped as well to near pre crisis pricing.

Scientists often revise their hypotheses based on information available. As I stated before, in countries that were most successful,  politics followed science.  They did not put the cart before the horse.