The Struggle For Ukraine

[ML]

Didn't he promise to do this once before ?

[John Gaunt]

Didn't he promise to do this once before ?

Does it matter?

[Grumpy]

MODERN POSITIONAL WARFARE AND HOW TO WIN IN IT
Valerii Zaluzhnyi
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

http://infographics.economist.com/2023/ExternalContent/ZALUZHNYI_FULL_VERSION.pdf

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/05/zelenskiy-denies-ukrainian-generals-claim-war-is-at-stalemate

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/04/continued-support-for-ukraine-will-cost-the-west-less-than-letting-putin-win

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/04/zelenskiy-denies-he-is-under-pressure-to-enter-peace-talks-with-russia

http://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/05/ukrainian-forces-destroy-state-of-the-art-russian-weapon-dubbed-impenetrable-drone-dome/

http://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/05/satellite-images-show-russian-missile-ship-damaged-by-ukrainian-airstrike-in-occupied-crimea/

[Trenchcoat]

Well here is an interesting article I saw this morning, an update on those Ukrainian men who are doing a runner:

http://www.livemint.com/news/thousands-of-ukrainian-men-are-avoiding-military-service-11699526616865.html

Looks like the present situation sees men leave Ukraine before their 18th birthday lol.

Crafty, I don't blame them though.

My guess is that at some point Ukraine may bring in changes to stop all of these get ours. Possibly make those taking second degrees eligible or ban Ukrainian men from enrollment on second degrees, banning males 16 or over from crossing the Ukrainian border, checking on whether disabled people are really being cared for and making crossing the border a criminal offence, etc.

My guess is that in the end they will be forced to do so as otherwise they will be running out of men at the front which if course spells disaster for them. Quite possibly they might already be finding it difficult to get men up for the front as a lot of the initial enthusiasm has likely dissipated now.

For those here married to Ukrainian wives I would avoid dual citizenship if I were you or if you go to Ukraine you could get called up too

[Trenchcoat]

In other news it looks like the EU is pushing on with enlarging it's Empire to include Ukraine, etc:

Via Euronews: State of the Union: European Commission says Ukraine should start EU membership talks
http://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/11/10/state-of-the-union-european-commission-says-ukraine-should-start-eu-membership-talks

I don't think a lot of Ukrainians have caught on to what this actually entails particularly those at the front. As they do the fighting their way of life is likely to be undermined and they are likely to get knifed in the back by the politicians in Ukraine & the EU. As part of being in the EU means accepting all their legislation that also means accepting their 'equal pay legislation' too!

Yep that's right the moment they join the guys fighting at the front or who have fought at the front are going to have to accept less money while the women will get paid more money so that they are both earning the same for doing the same (or similar) type of work. Now that naturally is going to cause havoc and a lot of relationships that were working won't no longer and a lot of youngsters won't be getting together as the women will no longer rate the guys who are now earning the same as them. That as we have seen in the west will cause the population to plummet even further than it currently is in Ukraine and people living miserable lonely lives with just work to go too. Possibly immigrants may be brought in and Ukraine not be so Ukrainian any more.

Whether Ukrainians will get a say in joining I doubt as usually that decision is undemocratically made for them.

Once in the EU that is not all though, Ukraine will have to adopt the Euro which means it can no longer devalue its loans through devaluing it's currency. That as we have seen in Greece is not a good thing, particularly as Ukraine will have a lot of debt. The EU too is amassing huge debt from COVID, supporting Ukraine in its war and the usual fancy projects, etc.

Germany, France & Italy are being called upon to bankroll all of this and they are none to happy about it, they have their own debts and problems. The issue going forward is that with more new members wanting handouts along with the existing ones like Poland, etc will the EUve in a position to hand them out much in the way of money anymore?

I can see a lot of problems on the horizon for the EU if this all goes ahead and I think it could well all end in a big

[Boethius]

As part of being in the EU means accepting all their legislation that also means accepting their 'equal pay legislation' too!

Yep that's right the moment they join the guys fighting at the front or who have fought at the front are going to have to accept less money while the women will get paid more money so that they are both earning the same for doing the same (or similar) type of work. Now that naturally is going to cause havoc and a lot of relationships that were working won't no longer and a lot of youngsters won't be getting together as the women will no longer rate the guys who are now earning the same as them.

In the USSR, men and women earned the same pay for the same work.  Traditionally "male" professions, such as trades, earned more than bookkeepers, but a female plumber earned the same salary as a male plumber.  That concept carried on in Ukraine.  So you are absolutely wrong on this.  Perhaps if you expanded your way of thinking, you would see that being paid equally is a positive, not a negative.

That as we have seen in the west will cause the population to plummet even further than it currently is in Ukraine and people living miserable lonely lives with just work to go too. Possibly immigrants may be brought in and Ukraine not be so Ukrainian any more.

The population plummeted in Soviet times, because it was too expensive to raise children.  That's the case now as well.  People with ties to villages tend to have more children, as they can feed them.

Whether Ukrainians will get a say in joining I doubt as usually that decision is undemocratically made for them.

Ukrainians overwhelmingly wish to join the EU.

[2tallbill]

In the USSR, men and women earned the same pay for the same work.  Traditionally "male" professions, such as trades, earned more than bookkeepers, but a female plumber earned the same salary as a male plumber.  That concept carried on in Ukraine.  So you are absolutely wrong on this.  Perhaps if you expanded your way of thinking, you would see that being paid equally is a positive, not a negative.

That is EXACTLY as it should be. Rachel Madcow (as do most feministas) complained that
men made more than women. But used the numbers of men's wages compared to women's
wages without taking into account that more women are office workers, teachers and bank
tellers than engineers, heavy equipment operators and welders or that more women worked
part time or took years off their careers to be at home with their children.  [/quote]

Ukrainians overwhelmingly wish to join the EU.

Citizens of all the Ex-Soviet Union want to. Nobody wants to be Belarus when they could be
Poland or Lithuania.

[Trenchcoat]

In the USSR, men and women earned the same pay for the same work.  Traditionally "male" professions, such as trades, earned more than bookkeepers, but a female plumber earned the same salary as a male plumber.  That concept carried on in Ukraine.  So you are absolutely wrong on this.  Perhaps if you expanded your way of thinking, you would see that being paid equally is a positive, not a negative.




The population plummeted in Soviet times, because it was too expensive to raise children.  That's the case now as well.  People with ties to villages tend to have more children, as they can feed them.


Ukrainians overwhelmingly wish to join the EU.

Incorrect Counsel! Population increased dramatically during the Soviet Union due to free Social Housing and State support in which to have children, it's only leveled off after the USSR when that support became not as strong due to capitalism rather than socialism, as the population graph on Wikipedia demonstrates:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Soviet_Union

Yes in polls taken the majority of Ukrainians want to join the EU BUT that is not an official mandate and so a referendum on the issue should be taken. Furthermore I don't think that most Ukrainians really at all know what they are signing up too in joining the EU. I am pretty sure they have a concept of being all good, their saviour without actually realising what the EU actually entails and how it is going to be different from what they imagined.

Bearing in mind aside from all the legislation etc that they will have to be beholden too they are entering into a EU at which point it's Credit Cards are maxed out and it's net contributors are done one and the remaining ones are going to get squeezed on their finances also. Basically it's going to be entering an EU that is busted while being told what to do by the EU. My feeling is that any current love for the EU will die pretty quickly.

I am pretty definite that most men earn more than most women in Ukraine

[Boethius]

I meant in Ukraine. From 1965 on, birth rates in Ukraine were below replacement levels (which are 2.1 live births).

[Steven1971]

Hungary and Poland are both in the EU. Neither uses the Euro (Forint and Zloty).

[Trenchcoat]

I meant in Ukraine. From 1965 on, birth rates in Ukraine were below replacement levels (which are 2.1 live births).

I think you're playing with statistics my dear Boe

[Trenchcoat]

Hungary and Poland are both in the EU. Neither uses the Euro (Forint and Zloty).

You're right Steven they don't use the Euro but they joined the EU before all new members had to use the Euro. So Ukraine will have to use the Euro as the rules currently stand as well after the change of rule date. Adopting the Euro could cause further problems for Ukraine's economy as nearby Poland benefits from a cheaper currency Ukraine will be adopting both a more expensive currency than it presently has and more expensive than the Polish currency, the Polish currency at present being more expensive than the current Ukrainian currency.

My guess is the Ukrainian currency is cheap for a good reason (even before the war it was cheap but now obviously more so) so it's likely to kill exports as it will make them very expensive, do god knows what to labour costs, and who knows what to anything else, government debt costs soaring with income declining perhaps? etc

[Boethius]

I think you're playing with statistics my dear Boe

Nope. Have a look. Births started dropping in the mid 1960s in Ukraine. They did in the Slavic part of Russia as well. Russia had higher birth rates Ami g its Muslim region.

[Steven1971]

The countries that were previously in the Warsaw Pact which subsequently joined the European Union have greatly benefited economically. In 1995 Poland had more or less the same GDP per capita as Russia; in 2021 it was 50% higher.

More countries joining creates a larger internal single market. The world is moving towards large trading blocks - America with Mexico and Canada the dominant one and China fast catching up. The United Kingdom in its infinite wisdom decided its future was trading with Australia and New Zealand rather than countries a few hours lorry drive away...

The European Union has the resources to absorb Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. It's not economics, it's politics that would prevent membership, with Putin's useful idiots in Hungary and the Slovak republic providing noises off.

[Trenchcoat]

The countries that were previously in the Warsaw Pact which subsequently joined the European Union have greatly benefited economically. In 1995 Poland had more or less the same GDP per capita as Russia; in 2021 it was 50% higher.

More countries joining creates a larger internal single market. The world is moving towards large trading blocks - America with Mexico and Canada the dominant one and China fast catching up. The United Kingdom in its infinite wisdom decided its future was trading with Australia and New Zealand rather than countries a few hours lorry drive away...

The European Union has the resources to absorb Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. It's not economics, it's politics that would prevent membership, with Putin's useful idiots in Hungary and the Slovak republic providing noises off.

Indeed Poland did well because the EU were taking money off us along with Germany, France and Italy and giving it to Poland. Poland was becoming stronger as a result and us weaker. It's no wonder that we went from being able to call an Ambulance and it be with us between 15-30 minutes before Poland & other Eastern bloc nations joined the EU to waiting all day or all night for one not long after they joined. We were being drained of our finances for supporting such and for growing our infrastructure too. The EU is essentially one massive Ponzi scheme it takes money of western countries renames it EU money, gives us back a small amount of it as EU money that was our money anyway then with the rest takes some for Brussels unelected bureaucrats and give themselves big salaries and pensions then sends the rest to East European countries. They use the money to bait poorer East European in to expand their Evil Empire. The EU itself is dangerous like Russia, the bigger they get the more dangerous they become. We just got out as we import from the EU far more than we export so we're in a strong position. Even then we faced bullying from the EU of threats to cut us off from the single market through no Brexit deal which we helped to create. The more the EU expands the bigger clout that they gain to dictate and take power off their members and those around them. The Brussels bureaucracy enjoys being on top and is power hungry. Keeping the EU from its project of dragging in all European nations is key to avoiding loss of all sovereignty and being totally dominated by what they wish to dictate how ever so far that may end up going.

For us in the UK the US trading bloc as you have mentioned Steven provides the key to which to become a major power and economy once again. Instead of just trading with the EU we now have the opportunity to strike a free trade deal with the US also! That would be huge, we would be at the crossroads of two major trading blocks and cumulatively growing our economy off both. We would be seen by industries as the place to be to do business in either trading bloc. The EU saw that in negotiations and did not like it but had little choice due to our import/export position. A US deal will take time, we already have AUKUS that I don't think we would have gotten if we were still in the EU due to the US being skeptical over security concerns with the EU. Biden I think is not so interested in a trade deal with us due to his Irish roots so we'll see who gets in next year.

The UK has already made a good trade deal with Ukraine. I believe that more trade should be done with Ukraine and other non-EU European countries and to come to a consensus about the benefits of being free from the clutches if the EU. I think we could do great trade with these countries and form an informal trading group of countries for those nations that don't wish to be under the control of the EU.

[Trenchcoat]

Incidentally Ukraine has a free trade deal with the EU much akin to the UK's free trade deal with the EU post Brexit. So the Single Market will give them little extra but Ukraine will lose a lot of sovereignty. Ukraine baited in of course by the payments they will receive from the EU. To some extent I understand why Ukraine are having to go that path at present to gain the financial and military support they need, but I don't think they are having the EU on and are pursuing the path to EU membership too doggedly. They would be better not going along with it quite so briskly and then pulling back before it happens.

[Steven1971]

Brexit is a slow puncture on the UK economy and the reduction in our GDP because of it is far greater than the small net contribution we used to make to be members. UK companies have much more red tape now. The UK economy also benefited from motivated and talented young East Europeans who came to work in our country. All I worked with were better than a lot of the lazy disinterested Brits we now have to employ.

The EU has nothing to do with the state of the NHS. The problem there is the various private finance initiatives which have saddled trusts with 30 year debts. A mortgage with a credit card.

[Trenchcoat]

Brexit is a slow puncture on the UK economy and the reduction in our GDP because of it is far greater than the small net contribution we used to make to be members. UK companies have much more red tape now. The UK economy also benefited from motivated and talented young East Europeans who came to work in our country. All I worked with were better than a lot of the lazy disinterested Brits we now have to employ.

The EU has nothing to do with the state of the NHS. The problem there is the various private finance initiatives which have saddled trusts with 30 year debts. A mortgage with a credit card.

I agree it was under Tony Blair's government that PFI (and variations off) was used most heavily for the NHS and also Schools which was basically racking up a huge debts on the credit card of the UK government. In addition though the UK has been squeezed giving big contributions to the EU, far more than people think, people think it is a small amount but in reality it is a lot of money each year we were giving. In the last year as a member of the EU 2019-2020 we gave:

"The UK's estimated gross contribution (after the rebate) was £17.0bn in 2020. The UK's public sector received an estimated £4.5bn of funding from the EU in 2020. The UK's net contribution, therefore, was £12.6bn."

14 Jun 2022
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk › ...PDF
The UK's contribution to the EU Budget - UK Parliament

There is a small increase in red tape such as a bit of form filling at ports but I think this will diminish in time as technology improves and the EU and companies see it in their interests to push for it to be minimised. I personally think the small negatives we have pale in comparison to the gains and more importantly the potential gains out there for the UK. Much of the benefits we have kept such as in some of the Employment legislation (i.e 25 days holiday a year, job protections) but we now aren't paying the EU billions of pounds a year like we used to AND can make free trade deals with other nations and tailor those to our needs. EU members can't do that and I think increasingly as time wears on we will see the UK economy benefiting and pulling ahead of Germany as the largest economy in Europe, already there are positive figures reflecting that.

I think for the EU where it went all wrong was taking money from some countries and giving it to others that they termed it EU money in doing so made it all the more offensive like they were treating us like mugs. If they had left it as, 'ok you want to join, you get access to the Single Market and that's about it' I think that would have been better. You know that those countries then want to join because they want to and not because of the money being handed out. After all we don't owe Eastern Europe anything in terms of post Soviet reconstruction that is down to them, or should have been.

Currency is another issue and in fairness all countries, Poland, Hungary and the UK, etc should have had to join the Euro or hold a referendum on leaving so as to create a level playing field. I am quite familiar with the pound so I would have preferred to vote to leave but I understand others don't mind so much.

Anyway that's water under the bridge now, if we were to ever rejoin the EU (I hope not but fear the worst the writing may be on the wall) then we would have to adopt the Euro. Not as bad for us as for poorer nations like Ukraine but still a little inflexible with debts if you need it.

As far as motivated workers are concerned, workers are motivated if there is something to motivate them (carrot and/or stick). The Polish workers could come and work here get their wages in GBP and covert back to the Zlotys back home and do very well, like we do when we go to Ukraine. So a Polish worker could do a basic minimum wage job here and it's earnings in Poland could be the equivalent of a Polish stockbroker or similar. So yes in their position I would feel motivated. Here we give some UK citizens free social housing and benefits on top, so are they going to be motivated to work? Tell them the free housing is from now on only going to be partially free and watch the keenness to work rise! To some extent we have left some people for too long in their social housing situation and their attitudes become lazy with it. It would be better to ease of in the benefits and just them give them a job to start them off. In Ukraine the state can only pay so much and the difference in attitude there for most is quite apparent, a lot more work motivated.

[Grumpy]

ENGin is a global nonprofit building a future in which every young Ukrainian can confidently speak to foreigners in fluent, conversational English. We aim to connect Ukraine to the world in order to propel its postwar reconstruction and longer-term economic & social development.

​

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It takes a couple of hours at the beginning for training, an interview, and a short quiz, with a commitment of a minimum of an hour a week for 3 months. However, many ENGin volunteers have enjoyed their experience so much that after a year or more they are still meeting with Ukrainian buddies.

http://enginprogram.org/

[Trenchcoat]

The UK estimates Russia has lost about 300,000 soldiers either killed or casualties since the war began. That's huge and more men than they started with but is probably correct hence them needing ongoing recruitment:

http://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-estimates-over-300000-russian-military-casualties/

My guess is that Ukraine has probably lost at least 200,000 soldiers killed or casualties by comparison by now though quite possibly more. Ukraine has so far kept quiet on their losses but they of course must know how many.


The EU not quite up to production targets for ammunition to Ukraine:

Via Euronews: EU countries failing to meet ammunition production demands for Ukraine

http://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/11/14/eu-countries-failing-to-meet-ammunition-production-demands-for-ukraine


Ukraine using a shocking 45,000 artillery shells a week, guess shows how active this war is on an ongoing basis.

[Grumpy]

[Trenchcoat]

Just posting a update on the situation on the ground out in Ukraine. This article states the current state of play out there, it's pretty much stalemate and hard going as we press on into winter with neither side looking like they will achieve any significant gain over the winter months:

http://www.voanews.com/a/british-defense-ministry-cites-intense-ground-combat-in-ukraine-/7360471.html

If anyone has any other news on such please post up.

[Trenchcoat]

Looks like the takeover of Europe is underway!

Not so likely Russia but by the EU:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1837567/eu-superstate-germany-guy-verhofstadt

The plan is to centralise power in the EU from EU nation states thereby reducing them to vassalage to the EU!

Poland's Law & Justice party see the plot and they are not happy. A real danger now that the Nations of Europe that are in the EU will have their power to self rule & sovereignty taken away from them. Does Ukraine know what it is heading into? If not taken over by Russia then the EU seeks to take control of their country along with the rest of them!

[Trenchcoat]

Looks like Holland are making their bolt for the door while they still can, they're going wild for Wilders over there.

[Grumpy]

http://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/24/texty-russia-made-over-5-bn-on-stolen-harvest-in-occupied-ukraine/

http://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/23/the-russian-trace-in-the-polish-trucker-border-blockade/