The Struggle For Ukraine

[Patagonie]

Reality check.

This conflict is an escalation of a civil war largely stemming from a US-backed coup in Ukraine eight years ago. Prior to recent events there were 13,000+ civilian deaths and millions of refugees.

Ukraine was de facto turning into a NATO member, wanted NATO membership, made comments about acquiring nuclear weapons, and has official government policy of taking Crimea by force. In addition, the US and UK have both provoked Russia by nearing or entering their territorial waters last year. This conflict wasn't 'unprovoked'.

Russia has hypersonic weapons that are unstoppable by current western defensive systems. Russia has the world's best defensive missile systems. Their older S-300 system proved to be effective in Syria: http://thesaker.is/u-s-u-k-france-conduct-massive-missile-strike-on-syria-details/

If Russia is pushed hard enough it may let the nukes fly. Not because Putin is unhinged but because the balance of probabilities heavily favors striking western countries given that it has been backed into a corner. De-escalation is absolutely necessary ASAP.

The Russian government's actions are certainly questionable but also rational.

My observations:
13000 including civilians and losses in both camps
Refugees: between 1.5 and 2 million
 
US-backed coup: no IMHO, reread Boethius explanation for the willingness of the population to join EU and 2/ Yakynovitch pushed the corruption too far (he wanted to create a business system that allowed him to take a personal percentage on the whole cereals market) so people started to gather in Maidan to protest. You know what happened next. So when the Russian Federation wants to bring back the same idiot to the Presidency of Ukraine (his hands are bloody, more than 100 people died around Maidan), what is the message to the Ukrainian people?A calculated and cynical contempt for Ukraine and its people. That was the RF's plan, re-induct this puppet back. So my analysis has now progressed to aim to the point that the RF hates democracy as a political system (put whatever reasons you like) and is totally ruled up by the same system that prevailed 50 years ago, during the Soviet Union - cold war. But in the end, it's even worse because there is no Politburo anymore and corruption has seized the whole society.
I recommend reading a recent interview of an old Russian general of 78 years:http://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/
 
I have already written that everything coming from Ukraine talking about NATO memberships and even the EU at this moment is politically insane.
 
The new generation of offensive Russian weapons is a first concern yes. Their strategic bombers associated with the new missiles' generation (SU22, TU160) are a nightmare for every HQ in the West.
 
The S300's effectiveness is a little more complicated. The Russian Federation wants to sell it abroad (Turkey has S300, as Ukraine) but the real performance is not clear. It is still a very decent and feared SAM system (it is said that it could detect stealth planes but who really knows) but between two affirmations of 100% hits (US version) and 25% hits (Syrian version) the truth is probably midway.
 
I do agree that the Russian Federation shouldn't be put in a corner too much. Red lines must be clearly understood and never crossed.

[John Gaunt]

My observations:
13000 including civilians and losses in both camps
Refugees: between 1.5 and 2 million
 
US-backed coup: no IMHO, reread Boethius explanation for the willingness of the population to join EU and 2/ Yakynovitch pushed the corruption too far (he wanted to create a business system that allowed him to take a personal percentage on the whole cereals market) so people started to gather in Maidan to protest. You know what happened next. So when the Russian Federation wants to bring back the same idiot to the Presidency of Ukraine (his hands are bloody, more than 100 people died around Maidan), what is the message to the Ukrainian people?A calculated and cynical contempt for Ukraine and its people. That was the RF's plan, re-induct this puppet back. So my analysis has now progressed to aim to the point that the RF hates democracy as a political system (put whatever reasons you like) and is totally ruled up by the same system that prevailed 50 years ago, during the Soviet Union - cold war. But in the end, it's even worse because there is no Politburo anymore and corruption has seized the whole society.
I recommend reading a recent interview of an old Russian general of 78 years:http://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/
 
I have already written that everything coming from Ukraine talking about NATO memberships and even the EU at this moment is politically insane.
 
The new generation of offensive Russian weapons is a first concern yes. Their strategic bombers associated with the new missiles' generation (SU22, TU160) are a nightmare for every HQ in the West.
 
The S300's effectiveness is a little more complicated. The Russian Federation wants to sell it abroad (Turkey has S300, as Ukraine) but the real performance is not clear. It is still a very decent and feared SAM system (it is said that it could detect stealth planes but who really knows) but between two affirmations of 100% hits (US version) and 25% hits (Syrian version) the truth is probably midway.
 
I do agree that the Russian Federation shouldn't be put in a corner too much. Red lines must be clearly understood and never crossed.

S-400, not S-300.

[John Gaunt]

The EU is not a member of NATO itself only some of its member states are. Some EU member states are not a member of NATO. The big problem with NATO as trump found is that it can make a lot of its members slack as you say with regards to stumping up money for their own defence. Germany has been a big one on that front, instead of spending what they should have on defence they have been putting that money towards their economy hence part of the reason they are the largest economy in Europe. They essentially haven't been spending out on their military as they should have been as they know they can call on NATO, i.e the US to do that in a pinch. So the US through NATO has been taking a lot of the economic burden for the EU's defence.

Hence why I say NATO should have been wound down and that burden passed over to the EU. The AUKUS alliance is a better situation for the US, the UK, and eventually Australia. It keeps us far enough away from conflict but at a strategic distance and makes sure that the members included can pull their own weight and have militaries up to the task. A lot of NATO members are now former Eastern Bloc countries and while their militaries aren't the worst they are far from the best also. Take Poland, Romania, etc old Soviet era stuff, planes, stuff that is mothballed. They aren't great allies as they are a burden, don't have great militaries and come with higher risk/liability of being drawn into a war with Russia.

The EU is not primarily a military alliance organisation but they have their military policy and they should be stumping up to takeover from NATO in terms of EU members defence. They don't as they know their isn't support for it as it will cost member states more. Many member states are a part of NATO and are able to slack off on military spending as a result while the build their economies up. Until NATO announces that it is winding down its operation in Europe they never will want to stump up what they should be fine defence. However, if the EU says to its members that one member has been attacked by an outside force the rest will come in as a result when called upon, they have little choice in the matter as it's what they signed up to in joining the EU.

Today the US rejected it's bases in Germany being used to fly Polish gets to Ukraine from. It fears being drawn into the conflict as a result that it could be seen by Russia as an offensive act. I think they are right not to risk it, it seems like another cunning attempt to me of hawks trying to find any excuse to get a war started and drag in NATO into the conflict. It is most unhelpful as they don't seem to realise that they are playing with fire and it could go horribly wrong with us all ending up in WWIII/Nuclear, Chemical or Hyperthermal war. I really wish they wouldn't be so pushy with trying to drag us into this situation it is really not our fight.

Hypothermal war?
Go on, basement warrior, explain to us what this is, since you seem to be making stuff up of the cuff.

[Patagonie]

S-400, not S-300.

In Syria S300, not S400. The Russian Federation does have an S400 but for the protection of their own base. Around Damas S300.

[John Gaunt]

In Syria S300, not S400. The Russian Federation does have an S400 but for the protection of their own base. Around Damas S300.

You wrote Turkey has S-300’s. They don’t. They have S-400’s.

[Jumper1]

I agree.  Russia (Kaliningrad) is already surrounded by NATO. (Poland and Lithuania.)  Latvia is NATO, and borders Russia.  As far as I know, there are no nukes stationed in Poland, Lithuania, or Latvia.

Have you ever seen someone who had to sell off part of the family farm?  And afterwards, they are full of bitterness and resentment?  In their mind, that sold part still "belongs" to them.  It is an injustice that someone else controls that land now.  That is what Putin reminds me of.

I was in Ukraine in October 2013 for a beekeeping conference.  I didn't hear anyone wax nostalgia for the Soviet era.  Everyone was excited at the prospect of the European agreement.  They believed it would open up trade so they could make more money, and they believed it would help reduce corruption in Ukraine.  (Granted, I didn't visit the Eastern part of the country.  I spent time in Odessa, Kyiv, Zhytomir, Bila Tserkva, etc.)

At that time the general feeling across Ukraine would be same as you experienced.
Kharkiv dnepr are the next largest cities and attitudes would be the same.

The donbas region included, the exceptions would be those powerful people already holding corrupt wealthy.positions fearing any change.
  I think most remember where the prior Russian puppets where from and why that's their strong hold.

This is more akin a mafia thugs, upscaled to battalions, modern equipment of warfare including nukes

They lost their roof payments,their turf, and are pissed.

To me it's really that simple.

Certainly it's more complex, anf thousansd of factors at play,
but I'm not certain at its root that it truly is not just that simple.

As far as NATO borders you forgot to mention Estonia.
Between Estonia and Latvia ,(and kaliningrad)  Russia has had a lot of shared border with NATO nations.

The only real danger this presents to them.is the inability to expand.

[Chelseaboy]

The UK is going to provide Ukraine with the Starstreak SAM systems.

[Chelseaboy]

A military band was playing the "Don't worry ..be happy " song  in the centre of Odessa today.


Poroshenko was rallying the troops and civilian defence units in Kiev yesterday and they were laughing...no fear in their eyes at all.


No wonder the vast majoity of western men fail in their search for a wife in Ukraine..how can they compare with real men like this... that laugh in the face of death ?

[Patagonie]

You wrote Turkey has S-300’s. They don’t. They have S-400’s.

Yep S400 now

[Boethius]

The US was involved and has remained involved. Ukraine has been supplied and trained by NATO (USA). That's not to justify Russia's actions but one can't honestly turn a blind eye either. I didn't say Russia was backed into a corner, I said if it is backed into a corner.

The US was not involved in the first demonstrations against Yanukovych.  The first demonstrations were after he arrested Tymoshenko, and those protestors likely were paid to protest Tymoshenko's arrest.  Thereafter, as I stated, Yanukovych rejected negotiations with the EU, and that is what started massive protests.  That and his increasing kleptocracy.  I had given Yanukovych the benefit of the doubt on the latter charge, but I was wrong, and Ukrainian activists who had pointed to his theft of state assets proved accurate.

Many, but not all of the leading Ukrainian activists were trained in the US on civil society.  Most of that is funded by the Ukrainian diaspora, though, not the US government.  Ukrainians come to Canada for that training as well.  You need to understand just how much the diaspora did in helping establish democratic institutions in Ukraine.  That is what most of the US funding goes toward.  It's not going to control the country. 

There have been 7 presidents of Ukraine.  One was a placeholder.  Of those, 3 were "pro Moscow" and 3, "pro West".  Personally, I believe Poroshenko and Zelensky had no other choice, given the invasion of Ukrainian territory by Russia.

Russia's share of world oil sales is slightly higher than that, and it's naive to think supplies can be ramped up in a hurry. There's talk of multi-year incremental sanctions. That's absolutely going to split the world in two. The west will lose out.

Only slightly - 10% at best.  I didn't state supplies can be ramped up in a hurry.  But they will be within a year or a year and a half. 

This won't split the world in two.  China is going to pursue what is best for China.  Same with India.  No civilized country though, is going to endorse an invasion of a sovereign country on the flimsiest of so called "provocations".  History also doesn't favour Russia.  Please name one war in the last 100 years, other than wars of national liberation, that has worked in favour of an invader. 

But it's more than hydrocarbons. Nickel, uranium, titanium, gold, copper, aluminum and other hard commodities will be impacted severely. A large percentage of fertilizer is exported from Belarus (25% from memory). Ukraine and Russia account for almost a third of global wheat production. What's going to happen to the harvest this year?

Prices are going to increase, that's what will happen. 

Belarus is not even in the top 10 in fertilizer production.   But I happen to know that Saskatchewan, which produces most of Canada's fertilizer (Canada is number 5 in the world, in terms of production) can produce a lot more.  Drive through the middle of the province, and you can see potash literally for miles on either side of the road, and that potash is not being mined or collected. 

Countries like Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia face the real risk of civil unrest due to rising food prices. Everything is going to get a lot more expensive and supply chains are going to break down. Global food insecurity is a big worry - including in western countries.

Again, I am unworried personally about food security, although prices will continue to rise (they have, significantly, already).  I sent the better half to the Russian store to buy sunflower oil and buckwheat, both from Ukraine, as their product is better than local, by a mile. 

This is arguably more dangerous than any time during the Cold War. Russia has superior missile technology. Poland offering planes is insane (seems like the Pentagon are not so crazy). Do you think Russia will sit by and do nothing? If it does, do you think it wouldn't consider a nuclear strike?

If Russia fires a nuclear missile, I believe it would be met with the same response.  So no, I don't think this is a huge risk.

Ukraine is collateral damage between USA and Russia. Dragging the whole world down with it IMO is not a very intelligent idea. As catastrophic as events are in Ukraine I am gravely concerned for the state of world affairs. This is a regional conflict that is now global and spiraling out of control. The lack of diplomacy is astounding.

It is not a "regional conflict".  It is a man of middling intellect assuming he could impose his will on a sovereign nation of 44 million people, the vast majority of them, hostile to what he stands for. 

I do agree on the lack of diplomacy.

A commodity producer like Canada may fare better than others, but the west is kaput. The EU is a disaster that will collapse in as spectacular fashion as the USSR.

I believe your assertion on the demise of the EU is overstated.

[ML]

What is America's foreign policy ?

OH, FOR THE GOOD OLD DAYS OF THE SOVIET UNION. America’s foreign policy and goals were clear then: containment and opposition to communist expansion. Nuclear weapons were a deterrent, but neither side believed the other would use them.

Putin has changed the game by threatening to use nukes should the U.S. directly confront his forces now raping Ukraine and committing war crimes that the world is watching thanks to ubiquitous mobile phones, brave reporters and camera crews.

President Biden and top members of his administration say we can’t directly intervene to stop Russia because of Putin’s threat. Is that America’s new foreign policy? If we can do little beyond sanctions against nations that have nuclear weapons this will signal to those who have them — and those planning to acquire them —that they have little to fear from America should they proceed with invading Taiwan (China) or attacking Israel (Iran).

Suppose Putin is emboldened by at least temporary success in Ukraine and proceeds to invade other countries that once were in the Soviet orbit, but are now sovereign states.   Finland has a border with Russia that is more than 800 miles long.

Will someone in this administration please tell us how far we would be prepared to go to help  allies? Would the excuse that Russia has nuclear weapons be used to keep America from directly engaging Russian forces should they invade additional non-NATO countries? It would be nice to know and soon.

The increasingly secular West has difficulty understanding evil, except in general terms. It is why what appears to be a pending nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran is fraught with danger. If reports are accurate, Iran would be required to ship its uranium to another country. Would that
country be Russia? And as part of the deal would the U.S. then buy Iranian oil in hopes of reducing gas prices ahead of the fall election? That would surely be a deal with the Devil and the ultimate in cynicism.

Evil can never be accommodated. It must be opposed, even defeated. That was Ronald Reagan’s goal with the Soviet Union.   Now Putin thinks he can reincarnate the USSR.

Are we blind?  Are we stupid? Do we have a foreign policy? If so, what is it?

email Cal Thomas at tcaeditors@tribpub.com.  CAL THOMAS

[Boethius]

This piece is from my part of the world, where our economy is dominated by oil.

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-u-s-ban-on-russian-oil-an-earthquake-that-could-shake-up-future-of-global-energy-supply

From the article:

“Russian exports are a pretty meaningful piece of global supply,” Cenovus Energy CEO Alex Pourbaix said in an interview from Houston.

“I’m personally confident that you will see the other oil-producing nations of the world be able, with time, to make up that slack . . . The world’s oil needs are going to get met. But I do think for a period of time, we are likely in for a pretty volatile oil market.”

Cenovus is one of the three largest oil companies in Canada. 

[BC]

Evil can never be accommodated. It must be opposed, even defeated. That was Ronald Reagan’s goal with the Soviet Union.   Now Putin thinks he can reincarnate the USSR.

Are we blind?  Are we stupid? Do we have a foreign policy? If so, what is it?

The only thing that can change Putin is the Russian people.  These same questions above need to be posed by them.

Helping Ukraine defend itself and providing assistance to innocent citizens is the best we can do at this time, unfortunately.

[Stirlitz]

If we can do little beyond sanctions against nations that have nuclear weapons this will signal to those who have them — and those planning to acquire them —that they have little to fear from America should they proceed with invading Taiwan (China) or attacking Israel (Iran).

I will tell you more. In 2014 everyone out there got a clear message: never, never ever give up your nukes if you have them in exchange for any, whatever guarantees. NEVER.


And, if you don’t have nukes, get them ASAP! This is your one and only guarantee against someone else attacking your country, annexing your soil, killing your people and - as we all see now - committing a flat-out genocide.


All of this is America's fault. It was the U.S. alongside Nazi Russia who rid Ukraine of the nukes in 1994. Only to use the memorandum signed in Budapest as toilet paper 20 years later.


Thank you America for the new world nuclear order.

[Trenchcoat]

You mean you got scammed by Americans! hard to believe

[Admin]

You mean you got scammed by Americans! hard to believe

Okey dokey..... Moderated until further notice .... someday .... maybe.

[fathertime]

Suppose Putin is emboldened by at least temporary success in Ukraine and proceeds to invade other countries that once were in the Soviet orbit, but are now sovereign states.   Finland has a border with Russia that is more than 800 miles long.
 

Russia will get away with Ukraine with being sanctioned, which in itself will harm them.  If they try to move into nations such as Finland it would be a different story. 
I'd say, like practically everything, it is case by case.   

Fathertime! 

[tfcrew]

If the Russians were called to withdraw to the borders quickly...It may mean that a chemical attack is next on the agenda.

Russia could launch chemical attack in Ukraine - White House
By Gordon Corera
Security correspondent, BBC NewsPublished
2 hours ago
Russia could be planning a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine - and "we should all be on the lookout", the White House has said.Press secretary Jen Psaki said Russia's claims about US biological weapon labs, and chemical weapon development in Ukraine, were preposterous.She called the false claims an "obvious ploy" to try to justify further premeditated, unprovoked attacks.It comes after Western officials shared similar concerns about fresh attacks.They said they were "very concerned" about the risk the war could escalate, and particularly the possibility of Russia using non-conventional weapons. This most likely refers to chemical weapons although the term also covers tactical (small-scale) nuclear weapons, biological weapons and dirty bombs.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60683248

[JohnDearGreen]

8 generals fired.
http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/v-rossii-uvolili-vosem-heneralov-i-izmenili-taktiku-vedenija-vojny-danilov.html

[Bee Farmer]

On YouTube, I saw an interview by DW (German news) with retired US General Wesley Clark.  He said that on April first, 130,000 young Russian men are required to show up for conscription into the military as new privates.  He said that if we can find a way to convince even 1/3 of Russian mothers not to send their sons to be cannon fodder, that would have a huge impact on the Russian military.

Have people forgotten about vk.com and Odnoklassniki?  They were banned by Ukraine a few years ago, but the Russians still use these social media sites.  (A few Ukrainians still use these sites via a VPN.)  Why are refugee Ukrainians not using these sites more once they leave Ukraine and can access these sites again?  Log in to their old accounts, and start posting information about the war and atrocities in Ukraine.  This would be a way to get info into Russia to reach the people.  Has the average Ukrainian forgotten about vk since they have not been able to use it for a few years?

Yes, it would only be a matter of time before Russia shut down these social media sites, but by then it would be too late.  If there was a concerted effort by Ukrainians refugees, they could overwhelm social media in Russia.

I still have a vk account, but I know it has minimal impact.  And any Russians who do see it may dismiss it as western propaganda, since I am an American.   But if more Slavs and native Russian speakers were to post the atrocities on vk, it would be harder for the average Russian citizen to turn a blind eye.

Should Ukraine consider allowing citizens to access vk again, so they can spread the truth about what is happening in Ukraine?

[krimster2]

Which comedy slapstick/cartoon gave you this idea? 
The Барнаул Bone Spur Show?

Russia ain’t America, you want your malchick exempted
he can temporarily opt out with an educational deferment and if he’s gonna try and get a medical deferment, he better be blind or missin a leg, otherwise his choice is a year in service or two in prison…

before this year, the standard price to pay in Moscva for an exemption was 25,000 USD
that was before, price is MUCH higher now…
almost nobody in Moscva with that kinda money nowadays anyway
so only a few oligarchniks can pull that off, and they already got their kids outta Dodgeski

In addition, for a “REAL RUSSIAN MAN", even a young one, being a soldat is a necessary badge of honor, no matter what the details, especially with all the nonstop patriotic propagandizing,

so sitting this one out, ain’t gonna happen for ANY Russians or Ukrainians
only a “little slabak malchick” would think like this or even have this idea…
ponelle?

PS, your cartoonish idea is rather silly
but here's a REALLY good cartoon!!

[Jumper1]

Bee farmer,

 Indo think most are doing so?

 There is a very unpredictable acceptance of this info as well and its impact on decisions,as well.as consequences of the young men not signing up.

Obviously I'm  very pro Ukraine,  however I know in a large circle of my relatives past friends living now in Moscow their old classmates profiles and feeds are often full.of pro Russian rhetoric, slogans and vids. It's just unfathomable as they have family un Ukraine,but its there.
Some are of course.pro Ukraine, but these are all Ukrainians,  its very shocking to us  about some of these decades long family  friends we have  called ,for example  because their mothers live near or even soame building as my mil.. .they often still dont believe this is going on to any.scale.
I assure you its tearing families and old friends apart,and that's ukrainians that merely relocated.
The Russians would be a mixed bag also, but hardly more empathetic on average.

I do think it's a good idea that they try ,but effectiveness seems very  very low

I do know from.limited experience that most I know are doing so ,and facing limited success and a lot of  angst over it.

To be fair we know many.Russian friends completey denouncing this openly, and certainly the majority of expat ukrainians in russia are doing so.

[krimster2]

So what happens when the Ukrainian government falls after the war switches from “siege” to “starvation” tactics after Odesa and Kyiv are encircled?

Will western sanctions imposed on Russia, also be imposed on Ukraine after this?  If not, won’t Russia just use Ukraine to its advantage vis-a-vis sanctions?  If yes, how can hurting Ukrainians be justified?

After the Ukrainian government falls, and the Ukrayins'ka Povstans'ka Armiya sets up shop in Poland and is attacked by Ukrainian Titushki Armiya hired by Russia, and Warshava has a “9-11”
what good will NATO be to Poland, who will they fight, Ukraine?

What happens after the west throws EVERY possible sanction it can possibly throw at Russia, and Russia just chugs along anyway, but decides to fight back with advanced asymmetrical warfare that they’ve had YEARS to plan for.  If 9-11 could be done by 19 terrorists with boxcutters, what the hell do you think the FSB and GRU could do?  And what could the west do in response?
more sanctions? LOL!!

You really think Ukraine is gonna win?
You really think the west is gonna win? – how?

Putin wants the sanctions, because it forces the oligarchs to stay in Russia and keep their money there and the iron curtain is ENTIRELY to his advantage, keeping in, what he wants to keep in, and keeping out, what he wants to keep out...

how are ya'll gonna defeat this?  by doing exactly what  he wants you to do?  really good plan, yeah, sure...
meanwhile you should be REALLY afraid of HIS plan of attacking you, it makes the Wuhan Institute of Virology look funny!!!
you have NO IDEA how sophisticated Russians are at this, more than ANYONE else on the planet by orders of magnitude, China, USA included...
Sviets/Russians have been working on this for over 60 years
no one else has what they have, it was created for EXACTLY this kinda situation, OMG, the Moscva office of Vektor must be elated right now
look what a relatively mild virus like Covid did to the west...

Russians have thousands of personnel working on this
plus even more with their anti-plague system which they didn't even bother to use for covid, cuz it wasn't a sufficient enough threat
none of ya'll in the west have even a clue of what they can do....
and that's not even talking about "Kamera" in Leninskiy rayon
which I first thought was some kinda "photo-apparat" LOL!!!

[Boethius]

You are giving the Russians far too much credit, krimster.


The KGB couldn't even predict the demise of their own country 30 years ago.  The Russians haven't been able to take Ukraine in the few days they thought they would.  They did not believe the EU would be willing to impose sanctions.  The oligarchs certainly didn't believe their Western assets would be confiscated.  Do you really believe they will settle for the beaches of Phuket after Paris, Italy, and London?  In Russia, they are under constant control.  It's not a life they want, having indulged themselves (and as the better half says, they are all swine) in the decadent West. 

[BC]

All of this is America's fault. It was the U.S. alongside Nazi Russia who rid Ukraine of the nukes in 1994. Only to use the memorandum signed in Budapest as toilet paper 20 years later.


Thank you America for the new world nuclear order.

Igor,

Any agreements are built on trust between nations.  When trust has eroded, those agreements are simply pieces of paper.

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-09/news/us-completes-inf-treaty-withdrawal

What I do think has happened over the years is that we have taken peace (in most places) for granted, declaring the "Cold War" over and such, resting on laurels instead of continuing dialogue.

But ultimately, what does Putin fear?  Does he fear an attack by NATO?  I think not.  IMO Putin's Russia fears things like genuinely free elections, laws that give its citizens equality and a genuine say in government. Laws that combat corruption to provide more to ordinary citizens and not new oligarchs.  Laws that offer more economic benefit to the lower classes.  Laws that allow true freedom of speech.

Putin cannot afford people in Ukraine to live better and more freely than folks in Russia.
The excuses Putin puts forth to justify military action in Ukraine are simply veils that hide the full extent of his fears and eventual loss of political power.  His balloon is nearing the bursting point, and he has to fight to protect it from the tiny pin that can make it burst.

I doubt mistakes from the past led to this war in Ukraine.  It was destined to happen one day or another.  Striving for freedom has never been achieved without high costs and blood.  This is an unfortunate part of the process against those who hold power over us.  This is Putin's struggle to maintain control.