The Struggle For Ukraine

[Boethius]

Not sure it's clicked yet but Ukraine no longer exists any more than what Russia allows.

That will not be forever, though, unless Russia plans on executing 40 million individuals.  Long term, Russia cannot sustain this.

[krimster2]

" I ask myself  why the 14th battalion  russian army hasn't left Transnistia? "

because 1/4 the population is composed of Ukrainian citizens, and they need divisions not battalions for Odesa encirclement
Russia will in the near future enter a general mobilization phase, so they'll have all the manpower they need

they've accomplished two goals thus far:
1. ropened norther crimean canal
2. landbridge from Donbas to Crimea

todo list
1. encircle Odesa and starve defenders and  completely cut-off Black Sea
2. same for Kyiv

at that point, there is no more Ukrainian state, just partisans fighting
and war will enter next phase the holodomoracaust

[Faux Pas]

Looks like his *shot* is shrapnel,  the.4mm x 10mm .tungston rods.?

Since I TIG weld almost  daily,I'm appalled at the  use of this nice commodity, when pretty much anything else would do at shotgun range

🤷‍♂️
 

Yeah I kind'a got that from his post but was still a bit fuzzy as to was he including any shot in the shells.

it's laborius cutting the rods, but it does considerable more damage than regular birdshot
since all shell purchases in Russia are traceable, having homemade components, including wads makes it more difficult for militsa
my other weapon of choice is a sawed off "Baikal",
after WWII, the Soviets brought back from Germany a complete shotgun factory and made them in Russia
these are cheap, universally avaialble, so you can have a "straw buyer" get it outside your locale, and the black market price will be about 1000 USD which is a little over double retail with ser # filed off, so very affordable and these are overbuilt, impossible to blow up with the crazy powder charges I use, but both of these are VERY loud!!!

Well it really depends on the damage you hope to inflict. Welding rods does seem quite laborious and coming out of that little canon will go in every direction. Assuming you can't get slugs or buckshot, do you know have a resource for ball bearings?

[fathertime]

What kind of settlement is dismantle your military?  No sovereign nation can agree to that.

An offensive type military isn't always necessary for nations to exist and do alright.    There are a few nations that haven't a military.  Panama and Costa Rica are notable.   Also after defeat Japan didn't have a military. 

 

Fathertime! 

[rwd123]

That will not be forever, though, unless Russia plans on executing 40 million individuals.  Long term, Russia cannot sustain this.

How long have other empires sustained control? I seem to recall the British held India for quite some time.

There may be a 'democratic' approach to autonomy or absorption in to the Russian Federation such as with Crimea, LNR and DNR for former parts of Ukraine. These areas will end up like Chechnya, ruled by a warlord but loyal to Moscow. From what I've heard Russia's looking to control everything east of Zhytomyr.

Whatever remains of Ukraine will have no armed forces. Any violent reprisals will be deemed "terrorism" and dealt with accordingly. Putin's more likely to deliver the 'Grozny treatment' to areas that are anti-Russian. I've read that Ukrainian soldiers with Nazi tattoos are being summarily executed (something that should be denounced outright). They won't mess around. But it will be far less than 40 million.

I ask myself  why the 14th battalion  russian army hasn't left Transnistia? To help invade Ukraine and cut supplies lines from europe? Perfect strategic location to do so and part of  why Russia pours 20 million euro.into.it.every year.
 In a big scale invasion that's a bit
Odd  to.leave on the.table isnt it?

The Russians want the encircle Odesa and hope the Ukrainian government capitulates without having to fight for it. If it does it will blockade the city until it submits. The eastern flank is not ready either. No doubt it is viewed similarly to how the Germans viewed Leningrad. They don't want to destroy it.

Once the war has 'ended' Turkey will have to re-open the Bosporus, else face the wrath of Russia. It's willing to poke a bear but only to a point. Food security is a big concern for Erdogan, Turkey are heavily reliant on food from Eastern Europe.

The truth is somewhere between Russian propaganda and Ukrainian/western fairy tales. Russia is well advanced in taking the country but has had setbacks greater than it is willing to admit. The fact that high ranking officials are getting knocked off by other officials is a solid signal all is not well in Kyiv.

[fathertime]

Not sure it's clicked yet but Ukraine no longer exists any more than what Russia allows. The stronger the military control, the less it will accept. What's the odds other oblasts are 'offered a referendum' on autonomy if it is forced to fight to the bloody end? And do you think such a referendum will occur without the results known in advance? I'm not advocating for this but can see the writing on the wall.
 

Original demands from Russia may be seen as more doable as times go on.  Like you mentioned, those demands have a good chance of increasing as more costs build up.  Prior to all of this happening it may have taken even less than the 4 demands to appease Russia. 

Rightwing talk radio seems to be getting caught up in the biolabs thing now in Ukraine.   I'm not bought into that just yet.  Talk radio has a way of exaggerating things and or omitting important details.

Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

Russia of course has China on its doorstep also as a power of strength but China is not seen as an opposing force, at least not so much as yet. China's focus is expansion into the South China sea region and beyond. China is also at odds with the US, UK, NATO somewhat so they have similar issues.

 

Some people like to say how China is going to be Russia's enemy....china recently said something like russia and china's friendship has 'no limits' (sounded a bit gay), but the sentiment is understood.   People try to sabotage their friendship but I don't think that is going to work, given the types of things said in the west about china recently, in addition to the sanctions.    It is in China's interest to stick with Russia this time around. 

Fathertime!   

[Bee Farmer]

Belarus is a major potash exporter. Russia has just announced a ban of fertilizer to 'unfriendly' countries.

If you miss a planting season the harvest will be impacted. Additional supplies will not come on line in time and some farmers will go to the wall. Domestic issues may impact Canada's ability to deliver potash in greater quantities as well.

What farmer is going to miss a planting season because of a lack of potash?  You seem to think that it's a critical fertilizer.  It's not.

Potash is used by plants for stalks.  Stalks normally aren't harvested, so the potassium gets returned to the soil and reused.  Normally, a farmer should need very little potash.  The times you see a farmer needing potash would be instances like a field that floods in the winter, and all the stalks get washed down the river.  Or someone who makes and sells hay year after year.  The hay strips the field of the nutrients and nothing gets put back.

A lack of potash on the market is not going to have a big impact on farmers.  They can still plant and get a harvest.  The yield might be a little lower, but they won't lose a crop. 

[Bee Farmer]

China will also say 'nyet' with threats to Japanese exporters, Japanese manufacturers in China, and the Sekaku islands. It may throw in an invasion of Taiwan for good measure which sends Japan back to feudal days as there will be very little they can export without Taiwanese microchips.

What about the 64 villages area near Sakhalin island?  That area is claimed by both Russia and China.  Russia appears to be at a moment of weakness right now.  China could tell Russia that if Russia wants any Chinese help, Russia has to drop their claims to the disputed area, and they must also support China if China tries to take Taiwan.

[Bee Farmer]

Assuming you can't get slugs or buckshot, do you know have a resource for ball bearings?

When would someone ever be in a situation where they couldn't get buckshot?  It's not that hard to get your hands on junk car batteries.  Bust them open.  They are full of lead plates.  Lead melts at like 640 degrees IIRC.  You can melt it over a campfire.  Slowly pour the melted lead into a bucket of water.  That's how they used to make shot in the olden days.  The size of the lead balls varies depending on how fast you pour it into the water, and sometimes it will be tear drop shaped, but it works just fine in shotgun shells.

A stack of dimes in shotgun shells will cut a 55 gallon barrel in half.

If you need slugs, but don't have any available, if you can get the old cardboard shotgun shells, ring them and they can be used as slugs.

[krimster2]

Tungsten is nearly 75% denser than lead and 2.5 times that of steel, it has tremendous inertia when it strikes a target

based on my testing, the damage is twice what a normal shotgun shell will do, once you go tungsten you’ll never go back!

this is a short range weapon kinda like a derringer, it works just fine, I know all about how to make bird shot, the method you presented can only create tiny #7 sized shot, (check it out on youtube, if you'd like to see for yourself) each tungsten rod weighs about double what a piece of double 00 buckshot weighs, #7 shot weighs about 1.5 grain each, my rods weigh about 7 grams each

only real drawbacks are the short range, a sprained wrist, and ringing in my ears, but the “other guy” will not ever feel a thing, very humane

this is "maya Natasha" with a lightly chopped Baikal

Dimes are kinda hard to find in Russia, and 1 ruble coins are just a little too big for a 12 ga and so are 50 kopec, also they’re made of steel, just too light…  you could go with 10 kopec, but they don’t penetrate very well  if they hit flat side first, and made of steel as well, nowhere near as devastating as the tungsten rod approach, not even close

[krimster2]

A big covid wave went through the Russian military after new year and Orthodox Christmas, some units had 1 in 5 soldiers out sick at the same time, not many deaths, but a lotta sick soldiers, who were only given a week of bed time and then had to go back to light duty, a lot of these didn’t completely recover and have reduced lung capacity now, this has had a bad morale effect along with the living conditions (covid is just one of the negative conditions)

I wonder how Ukrainian military and civilians are dealing with this, their living conditions seem to involve a lot of close contact with unmasked people, covid is not over with in Russia and Ukraine, far from it,

Russia just recently announced that all health facilities in Russia must submit a list of all medical personnel, whom the government intends to start conscripting for the war effort, further hampering all the medical problems within Russia

[Jumper1]

Da ,koneshno

Nice double!

Welding gun Tungsten is a tough  to cut,surprised you dont find a sharp edge like a vice jaw edge,and give it a tap ,breaks easy, not cleanly but doesn't matter in this use?

[krimster2]

russians have a tool for cutting and sharpening rods, I assume in USA as well, but I never checked it out cuz, in USA I can just buy tungsten shot of any size and is what I use
if I ever go back to russia, I won't be in bizness anymore, as I have retired, and just work on my hobbies now...
if I do ever return, and that basically depends on whether my children and their spouses return, I  hopefully won't really need such things

I am the bow who has launched his fair daughters like arrows into the heart of the Russian oligarchy
thanks to my efforts "my Russians" moved their money out, and their net worth is now much higher,  than before the war

when the big reset happens in Russia, they will be at the top, or they will continue to live on the outside, time will tell all...

[tfcrew]

Bloomberg News --------------

Sanctions leveled on Russia will ultimately cause more damage to the U.S. and its allies, a research group that advises Chinese President Xi Jinping said, as Beijing weighs how much backing to give its close diplomatic partner.

Russia has largely adapted to dealing with punitive financial measures since 2014, when it was penalized for seizing Crimea, Ma Xue, an associate researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, wrote in an article published on social media Tuesday. U.S. and European allies will wind up suffering for supporting Ukraine, said Ma, whose research body is linked to the Ministry of State Security, China’s civilian intelligence agency.


Ma’s assessment contrasts with most early reactions to the measures, which included cutting off the Russian central bank from its pile of foreign exchange. That move sent the ruble tumbling the most since the 1990s. A slew of foreign companies, including BP Plc and Shell Plc, are leaving the world’s No. 11 economy over the financial and reputational risks, and Russian industrial-metal exports have sunk as commodity buyers and financiers pull back.
China has so far refused to either criticize or endorse Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and abstained from a UN Security Council vote on a resolution condemning the move. On Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin repeated China’s call for dialogue between the two sides. Cutting off Russian banks from the SWIFT money messaging system will wind up hurting Europe roughly as much, according to Ma, whose research body is linked to the Ministry of State Security, China’s civilian intelligence agency. Ma added that the U.S. could also incur major costs in the future providing economic and humanitarian aid to allies, and that Europe could be destabilized by large numbers of fleeing Ukrainians.

“If the Ukraine refugee crisis is not properly handled, this will be conducive for Russia to sow hatred and sabotage NATO,” Ma wrote. “The fierce debate on refugee problems inside Europe could also damage its unity at crucial moments.”
Why SWIFT Ban Is Such a Potent Sanction on Russia: QuickTake
Still, China could provide some support for Russia to keep the punishments from biting too hard. Chinese companies are expected to scoop up discounted Russian oil if sanctions deter other buyers, traders have said. It could also provide a financial lifeline because the People’s Bank of China has a multi-billion dollar currency swap with its counterpart in Moscow, allowing the nations to provide liquidity to businesses so they can continue trading.
Russia has also worked to remove the dollar’s hold over its financial system in recent years -- selling most of its U.S. Treasuries in 2018 -- as it girded for potential sanctions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/china-spy-agency-s-research-body-sees-russia-surviving-sanctions

Perhaps sanctions are backfiring. Putin's approval rate has jumped to 71% [so reported] The skinny is--That mean mean evil west.

[2tallbill]

Rightwing talk radio seems to be getting caught up in the biolabs thing now in Ukraine.   I'm not bought into that just yet.  Talk radio has a way of exaggerating things and or omitting important details.

Fathertime!

[krimster2]

I was one of the people who endured the H5N1 outbreak in Crimea in 2006
my oldest daughter got sick, and I totally panicked and I took her to the hospital in Simpheropol
where they weren’t able to determine what she was sick with, because no one at all in Crimea could test for H5N1 even in humans, or in chickens

as Ukraine was becoming an emerging location for this virus and Ukraine had no technical resources to deal with it, and AT THAT TIME, the USA actually understood that viruses don’t respect international boundaries and whatever happened in Ukraine wasn’t going to stay there and could come to the USA, they helped Ukraine set up this kind of lab(s) for testing for highly pathogenic diseases that could end up being a global threat
and by the way, these labs are open to international inspection, it'd be IMPOSSIBLE to conceal some kind of biowar program there
the only ones repeating these lies are "THE USUAL SUSPECTS"  who also spread Covid lies...

remember when the USA had an “Office of Pandemic Preparedness” but “somebody” shut it down?…
hmmmmmm…..

if you want to read about an ACTUAL biowar lab leak then checkout:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak

[ML]

Previous gossip was that Belarus soldiers refused to move into Ukraine.

So now Russia bombs Belarus.

Will this be believed by Belarus soldiers so that they will now attack Ukraine?

Was Lukashenko complicit in this ?  i.e. he agreed with Putin to let Russia bomb his own people.

[krimster2]

looks like they "killed Fritz"

[Chelseaboy]

Well... the Russian Military analyst in Moscow for Novaya Gazetta reckons Ukraine is winning the war.


He's on Sky News now and says Russia is running out of reserves.,and their pounding of cities is a sign of increasing desperation from Putin.


He said that the war will drag on but by the fall Russia will be in a desperate situation...and so will Putin.




His name is Pavel Felgenhauer.

[Boethius]

This is an interesting read.

http://www.igorsushko.com/2022/03/translation-of-alleged-analysis-of.html?m=1

[Admin]

This is an interesting read.

http://www.igorsushko.com/2022/03/translation-of-alleged-analysis-of.html?m=1

Yes, very interesting. And that link is only one of four, or maybe five now, letters from a purported FSB agent. The first three of those letters are reported to have been verified.

[Boethius]

Translated from alleged FSB sources, who forwarded their letters to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human rights activists currently in exile in France.

[Boethius]

Perspective of an American who was in Chernihiv.

[tfcrew]

Rightwing talk radio seems to be getting caught up in the biolabs thing now in Ukraine.   I'm not bought into that just yet.  Talk radio has a way of exaggerating things and or omitting important details.

If there is no US involvement in any biolab stuff then how does the State Department know about it?
US undersecretary of state acknowledges there are biological warfare labs in Ukraine

On Tuesday, Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland stated before a Senate hearing that “biological research facilities” have been operating in Ukraine, in response to a question from Senator Marco Rubio (Republican of Florida) about the presence of chemical or biological weapons in the country.
While she said nothing about US involvement in the labs, Nuland rapidly shifted her testimony during the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing to efforts by the State Department to “prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces.” She went on, in a carefully orchestrated exchange with Rubio, to say that if there were a biological or chemical weapons attack inside Ukraine, it would “no doubt” be carried out by Russia.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/10/nula-m10.html
Where is Tony Fauci? Grab him by the ear and make him talk. I would