Civilian Airliner Shot Down 298 Dead-- Consequences

[fathertime]

Fathertime,

It is clear that you know little about the FSU and particularly its politics.  That is understandable given that your wife is from Latin America.  The rest of us have spouses from the FSU and have spent time there.  We have read about the history, we have conversed with FSU citizens about politics, etc. 

Some basic facts for you:

-  Many Russians look down on Ukrainians.

-  Russia has long treated Ukraine as a vassal state.

-  Independence is new in the long history of Ukraine.  Many of its citizens cherish its independence, want to keep it, and recognize that to escape Russia's stranglehold Ukraine must develop closer relations with Europe.

-  Putin is an imperialist.

-  Putin will do anything not to lose face and will not allow the separatists to lose  (the US State Dept  has stated it has new evidence showing Russia is 1) sending the rebels "heavier and more powerful"  rocket launchers as in Muzh's video and 2) firing artillery from Russia into Ukrainian military positions). 
l

Well gator I may not know every detail but each of the points u made I already did realize.

The points I've made in this thread are
1 NO US military involvement. ..sanctions aren't going to work either..so given that we should stay out...given what we have done we haven't a leg to stand on.

2. There is at least some involvement from ordinary Ukrainians.   sure Russia is getting more involved, I didn't say they were not.

3. Ukraine should negotiate or fight. If a Ukrainian federation is on the table then take that deal.  If not; then why doesn't poroshenko disclose publicly what Putin offered/demanded? Why not? I suspect because it wasn't as unreasonable as people already believe if it remains unsaid.

I see nothing wrong or incorrect about these points.

Fathertime!

[Gator]

Well gator I may not know every detail but each of the points u made I already did realize.

It was not apparent.

The points I've made in this thread are
1 NO US military involvement. ..sanctions aren't going to work either..so given that we should stay out...

The sanctions to date have not worked because the sanctions are not strong.  Stronger sanctions that would bring pain to Russia's economy would also result in some pain to Europe.  Europe so far has turned the other cheek.   

In effect we are staying out, except for rhetoric. 

2. There is at least some involvement from ordinary Ukrainians. 

The term "some" does not represent a majority of the local population.   

...sure Russia is getting more involved, I didn't say they were not.

Russia is more than getting involved.  Russia supports with heavy weapons, mercenaries, and leadership.  A few months ago I believed  Putin would not invade Ukraine, yet he is invading with proxies,  albeit in a slow guerilla type movement rather than with regular troops in battle formation.  And Putin will win.  He has enough weapons and enough money for enough mercenaries to defeat the undergunned Ukrainians. 
 

3. Ukraine should negotiate or fight.

Negotiate!?  What is Putin's track record for negotiating with vassal states?  When in the sovereign territory of Ukraine, Crimea was already organized as an autonomous parliamentary republic.  That fact did not stop Putin from taking the whole peninsula.  You claim Putin is doing this because the US though NATO is getting too close.  If so, eastern Ukraine is not enough of a buffer for Putin. 

Fight!?   Read about the Georgia Four Day war.  The Russian military slaughtered the Georgians.   



So you want everyone to turn their head while an abusive ex-husband beats his ex-wife.  I forgot, you want the ex-wife to negotiate a win-win solution with her ex-husband.   Sadly in the case of Eastern Ukraine, I believe everyone will turn their head except for a few verbal condemnations from America.

[fathertime]

Well gator there is a lot of points u made to address.   

I recall several months ago practically the entire webstinsisted Putin was about to invade and I was called every name in the book for saying that those troops/tanks were not going to invade.  I was not incorrect. Putin fooled almost everyone here..and I believe he will again.

Now we reach another crossroads.  I hold that Russia is asking/telling Ukraine to form a federation. Others seem to think he wants much more.  I don't agree.  If he wanted the eastern regions he could pummel them. It makes no sense for him to do what he is currently doing, unless he hopes the Ukrainian leadership will eventually come to the table and form the federation I believe he seeks.  It is a given that he is not treating them fairly.  Ukraine can stand and fightor negotiation, because as you said the world isn't racing to the rescue.

As a final point, I do think Russia will Invade if the Ukrainian leadership stubbornly refuses to negotiate...I believe that would be an error on their part, and  I also believe the USA would not mind too much seeing thishappen as it would mire Russia in a quagmire and endless insurgency.

Perhaps you seek  egregious flaws in my logic that would like to point out. Perhaps you see a different outcome you'd like to share. I don't claim to be 100% correct...but

So why hasn't poroshenko revealed exactly what the Russian demand was? As u might notice,  I read something into that.
Fathertime!

[BillyB]

Fathertime,

It is clear that you know little about the FSU and particularly its politics. 

But......even though Fathertime is a minority here, he's part of a majority of Americans, including Obama, that don't want military action in Ukraine regardless of what FSU history and politics are about. Americans see no threat to their lives or living standards . Why should we get involved in other people's problems? If Ukraine holds little or no value to America strategically or economically, then why spend money and blood to help them? Why get into an economic war with Russia. I see value to America in helping Ukraine. I'm not saying this because I'm all about saving lives or my wife is Ukrainian but value to America economically and strategically, and that contributes to a strong America and it's survival.


When this thing started and Russia said the fascists are threatening ethnic Russians, most people knew it was BS and the start of something bigger. America should have dropped troops in Crimea to help Russia combat the fascists. That's the least we can do for a friend...at the time. Because nobody is doing anything but sanctions, people are going to die. That is guaranteed. Russia is now firing artillery from their side of the border. Putin has taken another step in this escalating crisis. I believe Putin is patient in accomplishing his goals and is a man that will finish what he started.

[Boethius]

The noble terrorists are using MH17 victims' credit cards and cell phones.  Even wedding bands are not off limits -

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2703704/MH17-victims-wife-forced-cancel-credit-cards-theyre-USED-pro-Russian-rebels-accused-answering-mobile-phones-stealing-jewellery-crash-site.html


There are reports in Ukrainian papers, complete with a copy of the order, that Strelkov has ordered all looted items to be handed over to the DPR for the "war effort".  I can find no independent verification for this, so have not posted links.

[tfcrew]

 America should have dropped troops in Crimea to help Russia combat the fascists. 

Yeah?
Really fat chance there.

[tfcrew]

The noble terrorists are using MH17 victims' credit cards and cell phones.   

Yesterday, it emerged that the widow of one of the ten Britons killed had been forced to cancel her husband’s credit cards to stop their fraudulent use.

One would report a lost or stolen card.. The card company does the canceling.

[Boethius]

Take up the description with the Daily Mail, not me.

[tfcrew]

 Boethius......I believe you taking these posts too personally.
The above statement was not directed at you but is a matter of general information.

[Boethius]

A-OK.


I love the Daily Mail's headlines, but that paper is trashy.

[I/O]

The credit card fraud thing started last Sunday (inside 48 hours).

[southernX]

FT , pity  is you failed to yet again admit russia has invaded already ,
putin has fooled no one
fact is no one in the right corridors of power has the guts to stand up to him and call his bluff with some action ,

he did not invade overtly as many of us believed , he has done it covertly ,purely becuase he is trying to walk the tightrope between full on sanctions /open warfare which he cannot deny ,

with a covert operation he can distance himself ,and play a double game wihile still operating by proxy,  hence some fools will still say he has not invaded and it can be a win/ win 


this will not end quickly and it will only drag on until someone bites the bullet and callls him out with action
SX

[fathertime]

FT , pity  is you failed to yet again admit russia has invaded already ,
putin has fooled no one
fact is no one in the right corridors of power has the guts to stand up to him and call his bluff with some action ,

he did not invade overtly as many of us believed , he has done it covertly ,purely becuase he is trying to walk the tightrope between full on sanctions /open warfare which he cannot deny ,

with a covert operation he can distance himself ,and play a double game wihile still operating by proxy,  hence some fools will still say he has not invaded and it can be a win/ win 


this will not end quickly and it will only drag on until someone bites the bullet and callls him out with action
SX

Well SX of course I don't entirely agree with a few things. 


1.  Why are you convinced this is a BLUFF?  It doesn't look like a bluff to me.  Russia has taken action and appear to be willing to back it up. 
2.  Clearly Russia invaded Crimea.  It also seems clear to me that Russia if wanted to invade E. Ukraine they could have done it...since they are screwing around with what they are doing currently there is a different intention there.  I think you are the mistaken one. 
3.  Yes the rest of the world is not doing very much.  They are either paralyzed, or many cases they don't have a big problem with it...or in other cases they tacit support what has happened.


As has been mentioned earlier,  Putin and Poroshenko have met already.  Putin has publicly stated that he believe that Ukraine should be a federation....Poroshenko has not said anything different or to contradict Putin's statement.  That leads me to believe that Putin is not lying in this case, Poroshenko could have outed Putin and said "He wants us to cede parts of E. Ukraine " if it were said or implied in the meeting between the two.   I believe that those that have wild ideas that Putin WANTS to invade E. Ukraine are mistaken.  Of course one issue is why should Ukraine negotiate at all with a foreign power...well their options are limited so that may well be their best option.


Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

It also seems clear to me that Russia if wanted to invade E. Ukraine they could have done it...since they are screwing around with what they are doing currently there is a different intention there.  I think you are the mistaken one. 

1.  They can't win another faked referendum in Donbas - too many ethnic Ukrainians there (the overwhelming majority).

2.  They can't invade without facing debilitating sanctions. 

As for what Putin and Poroshenko discussed, the negotiations are still at the ceasefire stage, and have failed even at that preliminary step.  The EU has been involved in those talks as well, and its ministers have indicated several times that Putin has broken the promises he made. 

[fathertime]

1.  They can't win another faked referendum in Donbas - too many ethnic Ukrainians there (the overwhelming majority).

2.  They can't invade without facing debilitating sanctions. 

As for what Putin and Poroshenko discussed, the negotiations are still at the ceasefire stage, and have failed even at that preliminary step.  The EU has been involved in those talks as well, and its ministers have indicated several times that Putin has broken the promises he made.

1.  I don't think they can win in a referendum.


2.  They are already getting sanctioned and don't appear to have any benefits. 


There does not have to be a 'stage' of discussions.  They spoke.  Putin has characterized what he wanted was a federated Ukraine, Poroshenko hasn't contradicted that statement.   So, it appears that is what Russia is asking/demanding.  I don't believe for a moment that Russia WANTS to invade Ukraine, they could have done that months ago.  They are looking to negotiate, albeit overstep their borders in the process. 

Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

The sanctions to date have been very restricted, affecting certain individuals, rather than industries.  Were Russia to invade Ukraine, the sanctions would be far more reaching.


What Putin has stated is irrelevant to the topic of negotiation.  The negotiations have been about a ceasefire.  Period.

[fathertime]

The sanctions to date have been very restricted, affecting certain individuals, rather than industries.  Were Russia to invade Ukraine, the sanctions would be far more reaching.


What Putin has stated is irrelevant to the topic of negotiation.  The negotiations have been about a ceasefire.  Period.

Yes the sanctions have been light.  Yes I believe the sanctions would be increased if Russia were to invade Ukraine.  That does not explain what Russia is currently doing.  If they wanted to invade Ukraine they would have done it.  I'm not seeing the benefit of what they are currently doing, but I do see risks. I think this is their way to keep the pressure on Ukraine to come to the table for negotiation regarding federating Ukraine.


Since you were not in the room with Poroshenko and Putin, I don't believe it is accurate to state as fact that they talked only about a ceasefire, that is speculation on your part.  I wasn't in the room either, so I'm also speculating that more was talked about then just a ceasefire. Poroshenko has not denied what Putin stated publicly, so I interpret that as Putin's characterization stands. 


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

What has been discussed in the negotiations has been reported on widely.  All of those negotiations have been done in the presence of EU leaders/foreign ministers.  It is the EU members, not Ukrainians, who have reported that Putin has failed to keep his promises.

[jone]

I'm speculating too:

Putin was advising Poroshenko that it was a WIN for him to have Yalta taken from Ukraine by Russia.  He was also advising him that it was a WIN for him to have Russian sponsored terrorists separatists operating in his country, killing his population.  He was finally advising him, that since Ukraine signed the Association Agreement with the EU, that it was a WIN for Ukraine to have all of its trade with Russia terminated.

Of course, that is just speculation on my part, I really don't know what was said in that meeting.

Now, of course, I am just speculating, but it is my speculation as well that Mrs. Lincoln, upon receiving the news from Secretary Seward that her husband was dead, was also told that this was a WIN for the Lincoln family.  Cheer up, she was told.  I see the day that your husband's likeness will be on our coinage.  I see the day when his picture is featured on the five dollar bill.  In the long run, this is a HUGE WIN for the Lincoln family.

[fathertime]

What has been discussed in the negotiations has been reported on widely.  All of those negotiations have been done in the presence of EU leaders/foreign ministers.  It is the EU members, not Ukrainians, who have reported that Putin has failed to keep his promises.

The issue is not whether 'putin has kept his promises'. 


You believe they have talked only talked about a ceasefire and nothing more.  I laugh at that, because it makes no sense that the leaders would be in the same room (or even on the phone privately) and not talk about the underlying issues.  Putin has stated he is looking for a Ukraine to Federate.  Poroshenko has not denied that.  Invasion of E. Ukraine is not preferred. 

I'm speculating too:

Putin was advising Poroshenko that it was a WIN for him to have Yalta taken from Ukraine by Russia.  He was also advising him that it was a WIN for him to have Russian sponsored terrorists separatists operating in his country, killing his population.  He was finally advising him, that since Ukraine signed the Association Agreement with the EU, that it was a WIN for Ukraine to have all of its trade with Russia terminated.

Of course, that is just speculation on my part, I really don't know what was said in that meeting.

Now, of course, I am just speculating, but it is my speculation as well that Mrs. Lincoln, upon receiving the news from Secretary Seward that her husband was dead, was also told that this was a WIN for the Lincoln family.  Cheer up, she was told.  I see the day that your husband's likeness will be on our coinage.  I see the day when his picture is featured on the five dollar bill.  In the long run, this is a HUGE WIN for the Lincoln family.

Very becoming Mr 'student of history'. 


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

The issue is not whether 'putin has kept his promises'. 

Yes, it is.  For if he has made certain representations, and failed to fulfill them, the next step cannot be carried out.

You believe they have talked only talked about a ceasefire and nothing more.  I laugh at that, because it makes no sense that the leaders would be in the same room (or even on the phone privately) and not talk about the underlying issues.  Putin has stated he is looking for a Ukraine to Federate.  Poroshenko has not denied that.  Invasion of E. Ukraine is not preferred.

If the parties cannot agree to the terms of a ceasefire, or agree but nothing concrete occurs, why would they negotiate a peace agreement?    Generally, negotiations cover one matter at a time.

[fathertime]

Yes, it is.  For if he has made certain representations, and failed to fulfill them, the next step cannot be carried out.


If the parties cannot agree to the terms of a ceasefire, or agree but nothing concrete occurs, why would they negotiate a peace agreement?    Generally, negotiations cover one matter at a time.

 Generally means nothing in each individual case.  Generally it is sunny in Southern California, except when it isn't.  Generally men like beautiful women, except when they like other men.  Generally women like masculine men, except when they like Justin Beiber....

I don't believe for a moment that a ceasefire was the only issue on the table.  For one side a ceasefire would be a great benefit, for the other it appears it would not be..i hold other issues were discussed...if like you say they were not, then they wasted their time and are costing innocents their lives.  


Fathertime!

[Boethius]

Given that Ukrainian forces have retaken a great deal of territory, your assumption has proven to be wrong. 


The reason for a ceasefire is to end bloodshed. 

[fathertime]

Given that Ukrainian forces have retaken a great deal of territory, your assumption has proven to be wrong. 


The reason for a ceasefire is to end bloodshed.

So you are saying that Ukraine is 'winning' because they are taking some land from the Russian Separatists.  I think your assumption is wrong.  Until they rout (if they do) what remains of the Russian Separatists (and their backers), nothing much has important has happened.  I don't think you are seeing the bigger picture. 


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

All the terrorists controlled at their strongest was 200 km in a triangle, with Donetsk on one side, Luhansk on a second, and Slovyansk on a third.  With Slovyansk now in Ukrainian hands, and areas just outside Luhansk also now back in Ukrainian control, the area the terrorists control is considerably smaller.   Ukraine has the upper hand.  Its unilateral ceasefires (two) in the past made them a target.  That won't happen again.