Reforming Russia?

[mendeleyev]

The Mendeleyev Journal:

If your name was Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, then you woke up yesterday to the news that you were the most powerful person in the world. At least according to the folks at Forbes magazine.




According to Forbes, Mr. Putin had to shove US President Barack Hussein Obama off the top spot. We would question that assumption as the clown of diplomacy, the laughingstock in the White House, the man who knows nothing about anything in his administration, just ask him, simply could not have been the most powerful person in the world last year. Impossible.

For sake of argument we don't find Forbes that reliable on such judgments and frankly, when you look around the room at a G8 or G20 Summit, the obvious choice is the man who owns America's soul (insert a name here for whoever happens to be the Chinese head of state at the time), for it will be that person who will someday come to collect on US debts. That would be a frightening thought if Americans had the ability to think. No worries, given their collective character he will catch them by surprise.


Chinese head of State Xi Jinping with Vladimir Putin.

One could argue that given Russia's cautious friendship with China and with the Russian accomplishments on world diplomacy that it is understandable that Forbes named Mr. Putin. We live in a time of "highlight reel" reality. We celebrate the latest highlight reel, never considering what it took to get there, and instead we focus on whoever can send a thrill up our leg at the time (thank you Chris Matthews).

In this highlight reel world one can see how Mr. Putin and his almost too easy manipulation of the "red line" drawn by the clown of the Potomac might lead some to believe the Russian President to perhaps deserve such a title. But the Syria game isn't over and neither is Iran so unless the Forbes editors wish to careen down the same reckless path as the now worthless Nobel Committee, naming someone before they're accomplished something really is a thing to be avoided.

Mr. Putin is powerful to be certain, but no, Vladimir Putin is not the most powerful man in the world. He is a lot smarter than the pathetic pretender Forbes had chosen last year, but if Forbes can't get this right, then maybe we at the Mendeleyev Journal will be forced to take over naming who is qualified for such designations.

[mendeleyev]

If you persist on annoying the Kremlin government then innocence or guilt really won't matter--expected to be charged with crimes, again and again and again...

Today Alexei Navalny faces new criminal charges from the Russian Investigative Committee.

[lordtiberius]

Cult of personalities arise in Republics more than in Constitutional Monarchies.  Will the Czar return to Russia?

[mendeleyev]

No. Simple as that. 

[lordtiberius]

You are wrong. You do have a czar.  Putin

[mendeleyev]

Oh goodness, there is so much more to a Tsar than an authoritarian leaning leader.

Off topic question: When you spell Царь, do you hear the letter Ц as CZ or as  TS? Just curious. 

I'll probably post about this word/title in the language thread in this section.

[mendeleyev]

Coincidence that on the day before a friend from this forum asked for links on my pieces on Anna Politkovskaya, Destinations Magazine has decided to publish my articles remembering her. Way cool.

[SANDRO43]

Off topic question: When you spell Царь, do you hear the letter Ц as CZ or as TS? Just curious. 

The question would make sense only to somebody whose language uses that consonantal diphthong in its script, like Hungarian, Polish, CZech, etc.    

[lordtiberius]

Putin sabre rattles  for votes:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-al-russia-putin-arctic-20131203,0,5499339.story

Russia needs Arctic presence to guard against U.S. threat: Putin

Putin has ordered a Soviet-era military base reopened in the Arctic as part of a drive to make the northern coast a global shipping route and secure the region's vast energy resources.

"There are (U.S.) submarines there and they carry missiles," the Russian leader said. "It only takes 15-16 minutes for U.S. missiles to reach Moscow from the Barents Sea. So should we give away the Arctic? We should on the contrary explore it."

Russia, the world's largest country and its second biggest oil exporter, is vying with Canada, Denmark, Norway and the United States for control of the oil, gas and precious metals that would become more accessible if global warming shrinks the Arctic ice cap.

Moscow claims a whole swathe of the Arctic seabed, arguing that it is an extension of the Siberian continental shelf.

Answering questions from students, Putin stressed the need for patriotism - a common theme in his third presidential term in which he faces growing dissent and economic problems.

"If we want to keep our identity overall, we of course need to cultivate the patriotic sentiment," he said. "The country will not exist without it, it will fall apart from inside like a lump of sugar that has been dipped in water."

Russian geologists estimate the Arctic seabed has at least 9 billion to 10 billion metric tons of fuel equivalent, about the same as Russia's total oil reserves.

[lordtiberius]

This documentary validates and buttresses Mendeleyev's argument of a rivalry between Medvedyev and Putin

[mendeleyev]

Mendeleyev predictions based on Monday's developments:

Mr. Putin is running scared about the events in Ukraine. This is a no-humour and very pragmatic guy and the government has announced that RIA News and Voice of Russia will be dissolved and folded into a new Kremlin run group known as Russia Today. You may recall that RT was once operated under that name but for now these organizations will be separate.

The reorganization of VOR will impact me somewhat. Expect to see attempts at more internet controls in the near future and I'm more concerned than ever for the few remaining independent news outlets.

In the coming weeks you can expect more charges, bogus, to be filed against Mikhail Khodorkovsky. I've known about this for some time and in my view it confirms that Mr. Putin plans to remain in office past the present six year term which began in 2012. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, love him or hate him (he is a decent human being once the rabid name calling and accusations stop and a person gets to know him), is the symbol for the opposition and allowing him to walk out of prison is not an option if Mr. Putin wants to remain in power.

Due to weakness/silliness of the prosecution's "evidence" in the last trial, Mr. Khodorkovsky was almost acquitted in his encounter with the Russian judicial system. However a higher court, which did not hear the case, sent a new verdict to the court which tried the case. Russian judges are required to recap the trial and read the entire verdict and had you been in the courtroom at the time you'd have seen a clerk literally walking in with new verdict copies as they arrived via fax, substituting those documents with new ones, as the judge was reading. In Soviet times this was known as a "telephone verdict" in which the phone rang, a clerk picked it up, and then delivered the verdict to the judges who had tried the case.

Russia is a flat tax state, there is only so much one can do for tax evasion, but Russian prosecutors will claim that new evidence has been discovered and he and his partners will be tried over and over again as long as it benefits the Kremlin for him to sit in a prison cell.

[mendeleyev]

(The Mendeleyev Journal)

Having just celebrated the 20th anniversary of the constitution this month, we remain curious as to when and if the constitution will be changed in light of the government's intention to move out of the socialized health care business by the year 2025? It is a question we've posed of the President, the Prime Minister and members of the Duma.

This topic has been a topic non-starter leading up to the constitution's anniversary so perhaps now that this milestone has passed, someone will be willing to address the question other than simply pointing to piecemeal changes in the law or to published budget priorities.


2012: Mr. Putin took the presidential oath on the Russian Federation constitution.

The Russian constitution guarantees in Article 41, #1: Everyone shall have the right to health protection and medical care. Medical care in State and municipal health institutions shall be rendered to citizens free of charge at the expense of the appropriate budget, insurance premiums and other proceeds. (We've been told by sources in the Duma that the concept of insurance premiums will be an important function for the middle and upper class as the state reduces the health budget each year leading up to 2025.)

Article 41, # 2: In the Russian Federation federal programmes for the protection and improvement of the health of the public shall be financed, measures shall be taken to develop State, municipal and private healthcare systems, and activities shall be encouraged which contribute to the improvement of human health, the development of physical education and sport, and ecological, sanitary and epidemiological well-being. (Bold added)


Moscow Hospital 15 photo by Mikhail Shcherbakov.

Russia essentially operates with a two level health system now, public and private. The annual reduction in national health spending is intentional in driving the market to private sources. Defining private includes insurance, private clinics and hospitals, and voluntary payment for services to doctors and health care professionals rendered in a public setting.

While the preamble to the constitution states that the Russian Federation shall be a social society, the same document also prescribes for individual participation in the social process:

- Article 28, #3: Able-bodied children over 18 years of age must take care of disabled parents.

- Article 40, #3: Low-income citizens and other citizens mentioned in law who are in need of a home may receive it either free of charge or for an affordable payment from State, municipal and other housing funds according to the norms established by law.

Before one automatically assumes that getting a free home in Russia is easy, remember that WWII veterans were promised free housing and put at the head of the line. Some of them are still waiting--a point of friction between President Putin who relies on elderly voters as an important segment of his political base, and Prime Minister Medvedev who must administer the state budget in the midst of a slowing economy while trying to accomplish Mr. Putin's spending priorities.



(chart: PONARS Eurasia)

In regards to health care, socialized medicine is a budget percentage and as the economy slows, funds for healthcare decrease. There is nothing free in this world and as you'd expect payroll deductions are meant cover healthcare and pension payments. Reality however doesn't always coincide with theory and the real healthcare spending is currently at 3.5% of GDP and set to slowly decrease each year up to 2025 when the target is 1% meant to cover basic services to the very elderly and poor.

There are budgetary exceptions of course and leading up to the 2012 presidential election, spending on pensions and healthcare were temporarily increased in order to keep the Putin base of older voters off the streets and on the sidelines during a year of intense opposition street protests.
Payroll deductions for national health, split between employer and employee, were increased from 3.1% to 5.1% in 2011 with some of that earmarked for infrastructure (buildings and equipment) improvements.

Some might even look to a time in the future when the state could begin reducing pensions. Although Article 39 guarantees a pension, no rate is set and provision #3 states: Voluntary social insurance, the creation of additional forms of social security and charity shall be encouraged.

Pensions are yet another potential budget buster and now account for 23% of Russia's annual domestic budget. Supplemented by payroll deduction (termed "social welfare"), pension reform is another looming issue for the government given a rapidly aging population acerbated by a very young retirement age.



Then President and current Prime Minister Medvedev, 2nd from left, at a meeting with VTB bankers. Former Finance Minister Alexi Kudrin, far right.

In October of 2013 Russia's Duma (parliament) quietly passed a law that critics say leads to the nationalization of private retirement savings. The law begins by forbidding collection of a government pension when an individual has funds deposited in a private retirement account. Mr. Putin said that the law was only a temporary measure to stabilize Russia's pension system but leading Russian bankers opposed the law saying that nothing in the law spelled out how and when it would be repealed.

Russian Finance Minister Alexei Ulyukayev admitted that the government might access the private funds for public use but promised that funds taken from private accounts would be transferred back to the private owners once the state had approved marketplace guarantee mechanisms overseeing private funds. The value of private pension funds stood at $7.6 billion at the time the measure was signed into law.

Another significant disconnect between the government of Prime Minister Medvedev and the edicts of President Putin lies in the areas of how to balance slowing tax revenues with Mr. Putin's drive to modernize the Russian military. When President, Dmitry Medvedev concentrated on ways to reform the military, widely acknowledge as a corrupt institution.

Efforts to reform the military have largely been set aside with Vladimir Putin choosing to modernize instead of reform. President Putin has ordered the government to proceed with the SAP, a ten year State Armament Program with funding levels set to increase annually through 2020.

So what impact does all this have on the healthcare received by Russian individuals and families? We'd call your attention to anarticle in today's Moscow Times in which a journalist went undercover as a volunteer in one of Moscow's hospitals for children. This article does a great deal to helping readers come to an understanding of the current realities and the coming changes to Russia's health care landscape.

[Anotherkiwi]

So what impact does all this have on the healthcare received by Russian individuals and families? We'd call your attention to an article in today's Moscow Times in which a journalist went undercover as a volunteer in one of Moscow's hospitals for children. This article does a great deal to helping readers come to an understanding of the current realities and the coming changes to Russia's health care landscape.

The link you provided has nothing to do with healthcare - it's about fare increases on the Metro!

[mendeleyev]

Thanks, Kiwi. Apparently the KGB is following me around and changing my links (wink, wink)...I'd personally never make a mistake so basic! LOL

Here is what I meant to link. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/undercover-at-a-russian-hospital/491549.html

[lordtiberius]

Putin to pardon Khordovkovsky

http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2013/12/19/putin-pardons-khodorkovsky

[mendeleyev]

LT, I don't know what you thought but for me it was a surprise when Mr. Putin mentioned the Khodorkovsky pardon; it was clearly a setup question for him to answer and frankly, all the questions are pre-screened. The amnesty bill was expected to pass, so no big surprise, and the Pussy Riot and Greenpeace pardons were no surprise either but the bill included a provision that prisoners who had violated certain types of state security rules (translation: political prisoners) would not be eligible for amnesty.

In a Vladivostock question and answer session with the press pool members who travel with him, Mr. Putin had been adamant several months ago that Khodorkovsky would not be eligible for this amnesty. Even his attorneys were surprised. Robert Amsterdam was just as surprised as myself and he and the other defense team attorneys have been trying to reach a parole deal for several years with no hint of daylight.

My first thought, as it appears that Khodorkovsky is equally surprised, is that this not only has something to do Russia's international image leading up to the Olympics, but also with the Ukraine crisis. I am curious as to whether some deal was brokered with the West that would see the EU back off and whether the $15 Billion loan to Ukraine was part of anything other than normal negotiations that transpired in Moscow between Putin and Yanukovich over the part several days.

If a secret deal was reached between Khodorkovsky and the Kremlin, and I am not saying that there was, then in the finest of old KGB traditions there most certainly would be a written confession of guilt and an unwritten acknowledgement that Khodorkovsky stay far away from anything even remotely resembling political activity.

The fact that Mr. Putin also dismissed the idea of a third trial, which would have been as bogus as the first two most certainly were, was designed to sent a clear signal to the Investigative Committee and the Prosecutor's Office that they should cease working on new criminal charges. Were Khodorkovsky to engage in political activity in the future it would certainly lead to the filing of new criminal charges.

[lordtiberius]

Re: Putin's power
Some of the comment from NPR state flatly that Putin is doing this from a position of strength.  I don't see it that way.  Putin is known for his free speaking fireworks heavy pressers and this one was Captain Blando.  Also Vladi likes to drop bombs at the end.  And what big whopper to free Khordokovsky and get no follow up comment or question from the lemmings. 



If he had his druthers, Vladi would rather yuck it up with Schoerder and Berlusconi than shake hands with Obama's gay athletes.

Re: Khordo
If I spent 10 years in Guantanamo for some political vendetta, I would probably move.  Theoretically we like to say we would die for our beliefs but these things take great tolls on the mind and on the victim's families.  Khordokovsky will likely join his son in New York.

Whatever our differences are, the fact is we both share a common vision - a stable, prosperous, democratic and free Russia without Putin.

[Boethius]

LT, I don't know what you thought but for me it was a surprise when Mr. Putin mentioned the Khodorkovsky pardon; it was clearly a setup question for him to answer and frankly, all the questions are pre-screened. The amnesty bill was expected to pass, so no big surprise, and the Pussy Riot and Greenpeace pardons were no surprise either but the bill included a provision that prisoners who had violated certain types of state security rules (translation: political prisoners) would not be eligible for amnesty.

In a Vladivostock question and answer session with the press pool members who travel with him, Mr. Putin had been adamant several months ago that Khodorkovsky would not be eligible for this amnesty. Even his attorneys were surprised. Robert Amsterdam was just as surprised as myself and he and the other defense team attorneys have been trying to reach a parole deal for several years with no hint of daylight.

My first thought, as it appears that Khodorkovsky is equally surprised, is that this not only has something to do Russia's international image leading up to the Olympics, but also with the Ukraine crisis. I am curious as to whether some deal was brokered with the West that would see the EU back off and whether the $15 Billion loan to Ukraine was part of anything other than normal negotiations that transpired in Moscow between Putin and Yanukovich over the part several days.

If a secret deal was reached between Khodorkovsky and the Kremlin, and I am not saying that there was, then in the finest of old KGB traditions there most certainly would be a written confession of guilt and an unwritten acknowledgement that Khodorkovsky stay far away from anything even remotely resembling political activity.

The fact that Mr. Putin also dismissed the idea of a third trial, which would have been as bogus as the first two most certainly were, was designed to sent a clear signal to the Investigative Committee and the Prosecutor's Office that they should cease working on new criminal charges. Were Khodorkovsky to engage in political activity in the future it would certainly lead to the filing of new criminal charges.

I read Khodorkhovsky asked for a pardon, as his mother is dying of cancer.

[mendeleyev]

That wouldn't surprise me Bo. What does surprise me is that he had a willing audience. I think that events of Sochi and Ukraine helped make this an opportunity and absent those factors, I think that Mikhail would have remained in a cell.

[jone]

I heard today he beat feet for Berlin.  Makes sense for someone who doesn't know what winds of fortune will blow after the Olympics.

[mendeleyev]

Yes, he is in Germany and will do a press conference there Sunday.