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Author Topic: The Russian/Syrian connection thread  (Read 253492 times)

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Online 2tallbill

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The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #225 on: October 11, 2015, 11:10:07 AM »
Iran test-fires new generation long-range ballistic missiles, state media report
By Tim Hume, CNN

(CNN)Iran has successfully test-fired a new precision-guided, long-range missile, state-run
media reported on Sunday.

The Emad (Pillar) surface-to-surface missile, designed and built by Iranian experts, is the country's first long-range missile that can be precision-guided until it reaches its target, said
Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehqan, Iran's defense minister.

"To follow our defense programs, we don't ask permission from anyone," he said, according
to state-run news agency IRNA.

The new rocket is "capable of scrutinizing the targets and destroying them completely,"
IRNA reported.

There is more read all about it here
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/11/middleeast/iran-ballistic-missile-test/index.html
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The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #226 on: October 11, 2015, 12:06:39 PM »
Iran says verdict reached on Washington Post correspondent

By Carol Morello Washington Post   
An Iranian judiciary spokesman said Sunday that a verdict has been reached in the espionage case of Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian, though he offered no details. It was uncertain what the verdict is and whether there is a sentence.

“The ruling on this case has been issued,” Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said in his weekly televised news conference with Iranian journalists. “There is still the possibility of this ruling being appealed, and it is not final.”

Rezaian, The Post’s Tehran correspondent, has become a symbol of the lack of press freedom in Iran, and the capriciousness of its government, since he was arrested July 22, 2014. His closed-door trial on espionage and related charges ended two months ago, and the delay in a verdict has never been explained.

The Post has vehemently disputed the allegation that Rezaian was a spy. Executive Editor Martin Baron has said that Rezaian was acting solely as a journalist, calling his trial a “sham” and “a sick brew of farce and tragedy.”

read all about it here
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-says-verdict-reached-on-washington-post-correspondent/2015/10/11/b69943ee-e5f5-4a86-9c35-64cd3496f332_story.html
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The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #227 on: October 11, 2015, 12:09:50 PM »
Russian Intervention in Syria Excites Iraq’s Disillusioned Shiites


It was the American-led invasion in 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein and empowered Iraq’s long-repressed Shiite majority. The United States also took the lead more than a year ago to assemble a coalition to conduct airstrikes in Syria and Iraq against the Sunni militants of the Islamic State.

But with the struggle against the Islamic State largely stalemated, it is the naked display of Russian military power in neighboring Syria, and the leadership of “Sheikh Putin,” that is being applauded by residents of this Shiite power center.

“What the people in the street care about is how to get Daesh out of Iraq,” Ibrahim Bahr al-Ulum, a member of Iraq’s Parliament, said, using an Arabic name for the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. “Now they feel Russia is more serious than the United States.”

read all about it here
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/12/world/middleeast/russian-intervention-in-syria-excites-iraqs-disillusioned-shiites.html?_r=0


« Last Edit: October 11, 2015, 12:16:38 PM by 2tallbill »
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The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #228 on: October 11, 2015, 12:20:33 PM »
Here's what Russian intervention in Syria means for oil
Elena Holodny

Russia intervened military in Syria in a major escalation of the 54-month war in late
September, turning an already thorny situation into something significantly more
complex.

Notably, many of the geopolitical players directly and indirectly involved in the Syria
conflict also happen to be the world's leading oil producers.

Accordingly, it's worth considering what Russia's intervention in the Syrian civil war
means for energy producers and for global oil prices.

In a recent note to clients, Helima Croft, the global head of commodity strategy at RBC
Capital Markets, suggests that two important things to watch here will be:
1. What this means for the Saudi-Russia relationship, and
2. How this could affect Saudi Arabia's already battered finances.

"The escalated conflict could ... make it more difficult for Russian and OPEC officials to
reach any agreement on a coordinated production cut in the near future," writes Croft.
Additionally, "we believe that one of the most important oil market implications of Putin's
Syria gamble is that it will likely force the other foreign sponsors — particularly the Gulf
energy producers — to double down on their support of their Syrian proxies and put
additional pressure on their already beleaguered budgets."




There is a lot more read all about it here
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-russian-intervention-in-syria-means-for-oil-2015-10
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Offline fathertime

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #229 on: October 11, 2015, 02:23:01 PM »
In the real world there is no culpability until guilt is assigned. That's done through proper investigation. As I've already stated if the pilot was taking fire from that building, even if it was a hospital, he would be justified in returning fire. NATO, US ROEs make that clear.

 


I don't know what real world you are talking about...but if somebody (in this case Obama) knows they did something wrong, then fessing up and apologizing is the way to go.....forget about the spinning process...






No, it was exactly 'returning fire' (if that's in fact what happened). If the Taliban were using the hospital as a shield thinking that they could target US planes/Government/Coalition forces with impunity then they were sadly mistaken. It is the equivalent of the Palestinians using school yards to launch missiles into Israel. At that point the hospital ceased being a humanitarian refuge and became a legitimate combat target. Terrorists don't get to blast away unimpeded just because they're shooting from behind a red cross flag.



Whichever persons that were firing from the hospital win this one....they are probably dead, but they did better than a suicide bomber could, and the US gets to pay for in every way.    I still say they should have left the scene and waited for a better opportunity. 




We've already won the war. It's a matter of keeping the Taliban from retaking the country. We (NATO/Coalition) still have a presence there in support of the legitimate Afghani government. That's exactly why we are still there now. If NATO leaves, the same thing that happened in Iraq, will happen in Afghanistan.



I don't think have won anything, unless Pyrrhic victories count. 



Whatever the reasoning, Kunduz is currently under Taliban control. When/if the condolence payments are handed out. There will be a Taliban representative also right there with their hand out demanding and accepting the local population's US funded contribution to the Taliban cause. In return the Taliban won't throw acid into their daughters faces, blow up their houses, or murder their sons/brothers/fathers...this week.



Whatever the reasoning is, we shouldn't be in the position where we have to pay...  I imagine it is just PR, once the hoopla dies down I wouldn't be surprised if the payments are small, or 'get lost' in the mail. 


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Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #230 on: October 11, 2015, 03:04:34 PM »
Isis seizes ground from Aleppo rebels under cover of Russian airstrikes
Islamic State makes more gains as Putin’s aircraft continue to hit opposition
to Assad regime in west of province and key areas


Islamic State militants have scored their most significant advances in the province of
Aleppo, the closest they have come to Syria’s former commercial capital in two years,
as it becomes increasingly clear that they are taking advantage of Russian airstrikes
against the rest of the opposition to march into new territory.

As Russian planes continued to pound rebel forces in western Aleppo and other front-
lines in the country, many of the opposition fighters who ousted Isis from the province
at great cost last year found themselves pinned down and unable to halt the terror
group’s largely unopposed advance towards the city at the end of last week.

“Russian planes are striking the Free Syrian Army and laying the groundwork for
Daesh [Isis] control of strategic areas in Aleppo,” said a source from Tajammu al-
Izzah, a moderate opposition group backed by western and Gulf states which has
been hit by Russian airstrikes. “The truth is that Russia is backing Isis.”

Russia has repeatedly targeted opposition groups who have fought both Isis and
the regime of President Bashar al-Assad since it launched its military intervention
in Syria more than a week ago. Rebels claim the scale of the attacks against the
opposition, which has dwarfed Moscow’s campaign against Isis, is aimed at
dismembering the rebels to the point where the main choice in the conflict is
between supporting the Assad regime or Isis.

There's more read all about it here
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/10/russian-airstrikes-help-isis-gain-ground-in-aleppo
« Last Edit: October 11, 2015, 03:06:19 PM by 2tallbill »
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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #231 on: October 11, 2015, 04:53:16 PM »
I don't know what real world you are talking about...but if somebody (in this case Obama) knows they did something wrong, then fessing up and apologizing is the way to go.....forget about the spinning process...

No spin involved. It hasn't been determined if anything was done wrong. That's why the investigations are being conducted. You've just automatically defaulted to your  blame America routine. I'll reserve judgment until the circumstances surrounding the incident have been determined.

Whichever persons that were firing from the hospital win this one....they are probably dead, but they did better than a suicide bomber could, and the US gets to pay for in every way.    I still say they should have left the scene and waited for a better opportunity. 

I'll wait for the results of the investigation.

As far as PR goes. Yes, I'd agree. However, having personal experience with these various aid groups, they tend to (not always but often) put themselves in stupidly dangerous situations then wonder, or in this case, scream bloody murder when they're on the receiving end of violence.

The organization's now pulled out of Kunduz. They might have thought about the safety of their staffers and patients prior to the Taliban taking the town and pulled out then, before finding themselves on the front lines of an ongoing battle.

Either way, the US was going to take the hit PR wise as they always do. It's the same for most western nations when something controversial occurs.

I don't think have won anything, unless Pyrrhic victories count. 

Well that's your opinion, I think for the most part Afghanistan's been a success. It's now just a matter of weathering Obama's feckless leadership.

Whatever the reasoning is, we shouldn't be in the position where we have to pay...  I imagine it is just PR, once the hoopla dies down I wouldn't be surprised if the payments are small, or 'get lost' in the mail. 

I agree, the US shouldn't be in a position of having to pay...at least not until the investigations complete and responsibility assigned. In the meantime, you've again defaulted to blame America...What about the Taliban terrorists who started this latest round of violence? Any condemnation for them? It's notably absent in your comments.

Brass
« Last Edit: October 11, 2015, 04:55:32 PM by Brasscasing »
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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #232 on: October 11, 2015, 06:58:02 PM »
No spin involved. It hasn't been determined if anything was done wrong. That's why the investigations are being conducted. You've just automatically defaulted to your  blame America routine. I'll reserve judgment until the circumstances surrounding the incident have been determined.

 


Well you can reserve judgement, but Obama wouldn't have acknowledged so much unless it was obvious that we killed all those innocents. 


 


Well that's your opinion, I think for the most part Afghanistan's been a success. It's now just a matter of weathering Obama's feckless leadership.

 


...almost 15 years of war/death and no end in sight....I don't see how that is a success for the people living there....the financial commitment of the US has been ghastly, also with no end in sight...not to mention the lives lost.  Not worth the costs.


 






I agree, the US shouldn't be in a position of having to pay...at least not until the investigations complete and responsibility assigned. In the meantime, you've again defaulted to blame America...What about the Taliban terrorists who started this latest round of violence? Any condemnation for them? It's notably absent in your comments.

Brass


We are in their country...until we leave there will be attacks...it was us this time guilty of potentially a war crime...I mean 'mistake'.


 Generally speaking, I do blame America for being so overly involved in the region, I don't know if that is my 'routine', but it is my viewpoint.  We have 'accidentally' killed how many innocents now?  The Afghans have had plenty of time to be trained, if they wanted to be...we can give them a future date of our departure,  and let them figure out how they would like to govern themselves...or we can stay there forever and continue paying


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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #233 on: October 12, 2015, 08:21:17 AM »
Well you can reserve judgement, but Obama wouldn't have acknowledged so much unless it was obvious that we killed all those innocents. 

The fact that there were non-combatant casualties is not being disputed. It's the circumstances surrounding the action that is at issue.

 
...almost 15 years of war/death and no end in sight....I don't see how that is a success for the people living there....the financial commitment of the US has been ghastly, also with no end in sight...not to mention the lives lost.  Not worth the costs.

The vast majority of Afghan people would disagree with you.

We are in their country...until we leave there will be attacks...it was us this time guilty of potentially a war crime...I mean 'mistake'.

Nope. It's because ISAF remains that these attacks are minimized. When the draw down is complete that's when the attacks will increase just as in Iraq... and yes, let's let the investigations determine if a "war crime" was committed, or not. It's far too early in the process to jump to any conclusions.


Generally speaking, I do blame America for being so overly involved in the region, I don't know if that is my 'routine', but it is my viewpoint.  We have 'accidentally' killed how many innocents now?  The Afghans have had plenty of time to be trained, if they wanted to be...we can give them a future date of our departure,  and let them figure out how they would like to govern themselves...or we can stay there forever and continue paying

What about the 3000+ innocents who died on Sept 11th and the countless others in the years before and since. Any sympathy for them?

Overly involved in the region? In 2001 the Coalition consisting of several NATO countries (including my own country, not just the US) invaded... 

..."The invasion was launched to capture Osama bin Laden, who was accused of the September 11, 2001 attacks. The US military forces did not capture him, though they toppled the Taliban government and disrupted bin Laden's Al-Qaeda network. The Taliban government had given shelter to Bin Laden"...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasions_of_Afghanistan

You seem to forget that we (the west) didn't start this thing. America or NATO is not to blame.

Now, if you want to discuss the prosecution of said invasion I too don't particularly care for the length of the occupation either. We should have gone in harder, hunted down and killed Bin Laden and his terrorists along with the Taliban at the time then withdrawn with the admonition "Keep screwing around and we'll be back." or words to that effect.

There was too much "cooperating" with the tribal leaders and Pakistan trying to form partnerships which allowed the terrorists free access, escape routes and supplies. It was a bad and costly strategy on our part.

Brass
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 08:32:27 AM by Brasscasing »
...Build the wall. Even Heaven has a gate...

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #234 on: October 12, 2015, 10:08:20 AM »

Assad may try to negotiate with ISIS giving them a safe place to operate in Syria as long as they don't touch him or Russia and continue to be a thorn in the West's side. Anybody see this thing turning out differently?


That is one outcome.   Did you see Obama's 60 Minutes interview?

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/president-obama-on-russias-military-moves-in-syria/


I agree with Obama's rationalization that the bold step by Putin to enter Syria shows weakness (otherwise one of Putin's few allies is toppled).  This is similar to Ukraine - Putin seized Crimea and initiated the civil war only after Putin's stooge Yanukovych was toppled.  Putin could not afford losing Syria.   

I disagree with Obama that Putin is not challenging his leadership.  Putin has seized the opportunity to flex strength in the Middle East, where Russia  has not played a significant role ever since Sadat evicted the Soviets from Egypt in 1972.   With Russia's backing, Assad will remain even though his toppling is  the keystone of the West's strategy to destroy ISIS. 

The move into Syria  shows Putin is the master tactician, yet what is Putin's strategy?   I see three possible outcomes.   

1.  Putin does little against ISIS, and as BillyB hypothesized,  Assad even cuts a deal with ISIS to allow them to stay in Syria provided they do not attack Russia or Assad.   This is the minimal outcome. 

2.  A major outcome would be for Putin with Iran to oppose ISIS directly in a bloody war that could take years. 

                      Short-term goal for Putin -  Europeans remove the "Ukrainian sanctions" against Russia. 
                      Long-term goal -  use this success to gain influence in the Middle East.


3.  A huge outcome would be for Putin to use his unopposed position of strength in the Middle East  to drive the price of oil upwards.  This could happen either by destabilizing the Middle East or by coercing the Arabs to curtail production.  I assume this is foremost in Putin's strategy because he can not continue to build his military and support wars in the Middle East and Ukraine with a weak Russian economy. 

One fly in the ointment Putin's  allies Iran and Assad are Shia.  ISIS is Sunni.  The Muslims in Russia are mainly Sunni.  If Russia starts a major offensive against ISIS,  could this result in a wave of Sunni  terrorism within Russia. 

My guess is that Russia in the immediate future will do little more than what it is now doing.  Given its weak economy, it  simply can not afford to do  more.  Nevertheless, over the long term, it would not be surprising if Russia and Iran work jointly to somehow drive up the price of oil.  Who would stop them given the US's reduced presence in the Middle East. 


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The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #235 on: October 12, 2015, 10:15:04 AM »
Team incompetent/ineptitude also known as Team Obama/Kerry didn't care
about Americans held in Iran so they didn't get them freed in all the various
deals and secret side deals. So Iran went ahead and convicted Jason Rezaian
a Washington Post reporter.



Iran also holds Christian pastor Saeed Abedini and Amir Hekmati, a former U.S.
Marine Corps sergeant - also are being held in Iran. Robert Levinson, a private
investigator, disappeared there in 2007. Team Ineptitude cares about their legacy
and not Americans here or rotting in jail.

I can't believe that nobody in either party raises a stink about this.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 12:13:03 PM by 2tallbill »
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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #236 on: October 12, 2015, 11:25:22 AM »
3.  A huge outcome would be for Putin to use his unopposed position of strength in the Middle East  to drive the price of oil upwards.  This could happen either by destabilizing the Middle East or by coercing the Arabs to curtail production.  I assume this is foremost in Putin's strategy because he can not continue to build his military and support wars in the Middle East and Ukraine with a weak Russian economy. 

One fly in the ointment Putin's  allies Iran and Assad are Shia.  ISIS is Sunni.  The Muslims in Russia are mainly Sunni.  If Russia starts a major offensive against ISIS,  could this result in a wave of Sunni  terrorism within Russia. 

My guess is that Russia in the immediate future will do little more than what it is now doing.  Given its weak economy, it  simply can not afford to do  more.  Nevertheless, over the long term, it would not be surprising if Russia and Iran work jointly to somehow drive up the price of oil.  Who would stop them given the US's reduced presence in the Middle East.

All good points. I'd like to add that Obama's dithering has had some unintended consequences for Putin.

1) Although still talking the Saudis are downright peeved with the Russians and are going to continue supporting and strengthening the 'moderates' fighting Assad. That's a proxy war by definition.

Further, I would guess if the Saudis saw the opportunity to drop oil prices even further they might just do that to curtail and put more pressure on Russia's already teetering economy.

2) Turkey is angered as they've been trying to topple Assad for years and now must also deal with the Russians. The relatively unexpected  force and magnitude of the Russian intervention on Assad's behalf has left the Turks feeling betrayed by their Russian buddy Putin and this could lead to military and economic  repercussion from the Turks...

NATO has just announced they'll back the Turks if necessary...

NATO ready to help Turkey against Russia: Stoltenberg

.."The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has announced its readiness to "help" its member state Turkey, more than a week after Russian jets, carrying airstrikes in Syria, strayed into Turkish airspace.

"Turkey is a strong ally and they have the second-largest army. They have a capable air force, so the Turkish armed forces are the first responders, but NATO is there to help and assist them if they need," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday."...

..."Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan later said Russia runs the risk of losing its friendly ties with Ankara, adding, “If Russia loses a friend like Turkey with whom it has a lot of cooperation it is going to lose a lot of things. It needs to know this.”...

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/10/12/433116/NATO-Russia-Syria-Daesh-EU

This is significant on two levels in that Stoltenberg by stating Turkey is the "first responder" just gave the Turks NATO permission to 'have at'r' and at the same time has strayed from the Obama's position that 'it's all good' with Russia.

I posted several weeks ago that Russia's intervention in Syria might end up being the best thing that could happen for the West strategically and so far all the pieces are falling into place.

It vexes me no end that it's the Obama administration that's the weak link in dealing with Russian aggression right now, however, it's forcing the normally silent and compliant majority of involved nations (stakeholders) to actually step up and start fending for themselves instead of waiting for big brother (the US) to intervene.

Based on international media reporting (not US media, they're focused on debates and seem unaware of just how dangerous the Russian situation has become) you get the impression the civilized world has just about had it with this whole Obama foreign policy fiasco and is starting to openly criticize and break from his decisions/policies.

Without the perception of strong leadership from the US, Turkey or the coalition force operating in the Syrian theatre might well decide "it's go time".

 
Brass


« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 11:29:04 AM by Brasscasing »
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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #237 on: October 12, 2015, 12:58:38 PM »
Along the lines of what I'm referring to above...

British diplomat summoned by Russia over 'missile' reports

..."Russia summoned Britain's defence attache in Moscow to explain reports that RAF pilots had been authorised to shoot down Russian aircraft in the Middle East, the Foreign Office says.

Newspapers said RAF Tornados in Iraq had been fitted with heat-seeking missiles designed for aerial combat.

But the Ministry of Defence said there was "absolutely no truth" in this."...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34502545

...Scuttlebutt has it the Brits aren't the only contingent to have outfitted their jets with AAMs recently.

Brass
...Build the wall. Even Heaven has a gate...

"Because without America there is no free world" ~ Canada Free Press

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #238 on: October 12, 2015, 01:09:58 PM »

It vexes me no end that it's the Obama administration that's the weak link in dealing with Russian aggression right now, however, it's forcing the normally silent and compliant majority of involved nations (stakeholders) to actually step up and start fending for themselves instead of waiting for big brother (the US) to intervene.

Based on international media reporting (not US media, they're focused on debates and seem unaware of just how dangerous the Russian situation has become) you get the impression the civilized world has just about had it with this whole Obama foreign policy fiasco and is starting to openly criticize and break from his decisions/policies.

Without the perception of strong leadership from the US, Turkey or the coalition force operating in the Syrian theatre might well decide "it's go time".

 
Brass


Actually Brass, two very conflicting statements.


First, The EU is taking step (as in growing a pair) to deal with the aggression instead of the US carrying the stick as always. Now, isn't there a constant bitching from Americans that the EU is always expecting the US to go and kick butt and in return the EU will treat "us" with derision because we are always telling the whole world how to behave? That we spend the most $$$ propping up NATO and the EU ingrates all they do is bitch at us?


And finally, well, finally. It is about time they (EU) FINALLY do something about it.


What is strong leadership from your POV? Go in, guns ablaze and kick ass? Isn't that what got "us" into this mess to begin with?
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead. Thomas Paine - The American Crisis 1776-1783

Offline fathertime

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #239 on: October 12, 2015, 02:01:42 PM »
The fact that there were non-combatant casualties is not being disputed. It's the circumstances surrounding the action that is at issue.

that is true....although if Obama is already acknowledging guilt...that probably bodes badly for those circumstances.



 
The vast majority of Afghan people would disagree with you.


I take it you aren't including the 300-400,000 that have been killed or died as a result of the war? 



 
 

Nope. It's because ISAF remains that these attacks are minimized. When the draw down is complete that's when the attacks will increase just as in Iraq... and yes, let's let the investigations determine if a "war crime" was committed, or not. It's far too early in the process to jump to any conclusions.



I'm just screaming 'war crime'! because that is what the US starts doing before any investigation. 


Once we are out of there, the attacks on OUR people in the region will be over....and the expenses will start going down a lot. 



What about the 3000+ innocents who died on Sept 11th and the countless others in the years before and since. Any sympathy for them?

 

You seem to forget that we (the west) didn't start this thing. America or NATO is not to blame.



I actually don't agree that we didn't have ANY blame in the events of the middle east and subsequent terror attacks....we have been meddling and attempting regime changes well before 2001....in that context we probably did start this thing.   


Now, if you want to discuss the prosecution of said invasion I too don't particularly care for the length of the occupation either. We should have gone in harder, hunted down and killed Bin Laden and his terrorists along with the Taliban at the time then withdrawn with the admonition "Keep screwing around and we'll be back." or words to that effect.

There was too much "cooperating" with the tribal leaders and Pakistan trying to form partnerships which allowed the terrorists free access, escape routes and supplies. It was a bad and costly strategy on our part.

Brass




The length of time has been ridiculously long almost 15 years so far.  There is probably an unapparent benefit we are getting from this.... 
I don't think the statement you made that I highlighted is going to make much if any difference...certain groups of people don't care, and making statements like that if anything is provoking more attacks.  What REALLY provokes attacks though is our constant meddling, I'm sure we receive benefits, and top members of our govt. probably excepts that terrorist attacks are the cost of doing business in the aggressive manner that we do. 


Fathertime!   
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline Boethius

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #240 on: October 12, 2015, 02:33:30 PM »
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline Muzh

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #241 on: October 12, 2015, 04:00:29 PM »
Here's a nice scenario by Popular Mechanics on how the Syrian conflict would look following Cheney's diplomatic approach for the neocons Tea Party candidates to follow.



What a U.S.-Russian War in Syria Could Look Like
The war in Syria started as a civil conflict, became a regional meltdown and molted into an international crisis. Here's how it could evolve into a world war.


Part One: Interception and Escalation
Quote
Condemnation of this bombing has grown to such a fever pitch around the world that the U.S.-led coalition has to act.


Part 2 : Retaliation and Response
Quote
Meanwhile, the Russians are seething. It's not just that the U.S. attacked. It's that the Russian fighter escorts they deploy to protect Assad's helicopters can do nothing to protect them. The Raptors stay out of range, strike and vanish without even being spotted.
The Russians set their sights on a weak link—American KC-135 aerial refueling tankers.


Part 3: Battle in a bathtub
Quote
The United States must take down the Moskva, and American air power isn't the solution. The Russian frigate's S-300s and shorter-range anti-air systems are too formidable to approach. The radar alone makes a surprise attack from the air impossible.


Part 4: The End of the Start of World War III
Quote
It's time to talk, or keep fighting. Geopolitics can be a lot like a playground or prison yard. Once blows are thrown, no one wants to stop fighting until they land a few. Everyone wants to be the one who struck last—and ended the fight. This is the chance for Russia and the U.S. to put in the pin in the grenade and avert World War III. They don't.

In the meantime, ISIS is on the march as chaos spreads. The ostensible reason everyone is in Syria is to defeat the Islamic State. But the fight has only enabled them to thrive.


No one wanted World War III. But now that it's started, one step at a time, it's hard to stop.


http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a17730/what-a-us-russian-war-in-syria-would-look-like/




Yeah, let's kick ass.



To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead. Thomas Paine - The American Crisis 1776-1783

Offline southernX

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #242 on: October 12, 2015, 07:17:09 PM »
some interesting article in all that above

thing in putin can change course quickly as it suits him ,
to date the ''experts'' didnt see him planning crimea

im not convinvced they have his strategy nailed down quite yet in syria either

he could very easily now take over assads regime and make him his puppet , even annex parts of  syria into some sort of russian state within a few years , having another frozen state possibly
use it as a launching point to expand his influnce in the med etc

a lot depends on how long and far russians at home will allow him to lead them down this path

id not underestimate him   but i see  no need to rush in and join his pissing contest yet either

SX

Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #243 on: October 12, 2015, 07:39:10 PM »
Interesting perspective here


http://www.vox.com/2015/10/1/9434365/putin-syria-russia-mistake

Yes, interesting yet I don't believe Putin will cave.  I believe Putin  will stay even if doing nothing more than bombing opposition groups at the Gates to Damascus.   

One huge omission - the Brookings Institute fellow does not mention ISIS.  How can there be a workable solution if ISIS remains in place?

Offline Gator

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #244 on: October 12, 2015, 07:53:34 PM »


First, The EU is taking step (as in growing a pair) to deal with the aggression instead of the US carrying the stick as always.

Agree.  The EU should take the lead jointly with Turkey and the Arab members of the coalition.  Three reasons:

1.  The refugee crisis affects the EU  but not as much as it affects Turkey and Jordan.  The US is not affected to a significant extent by the refugee.

2.  There are far more EU citizens fighting for ISIL and preparing to return to wreak havoc. 

3.  If this conflict eventually  spills over to cause instability in the Middle East, the EU will pay through the nose for oil.  Unlike the EU, North America is not dependent upon Middle East oil. 

Plus, as you say, it is about time the EU did something. 

Quote
What is strong leadership from your POV? Go in, guns ablaze and kick ass? Isn't that what got "us" into this mess to begin with?   

The blame rests with Moses.

 

Offline BillyB

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #245 on: October 12, 2015, 08:29:29 PM »
One huge omission - the Brookings Institute fellow does not mention ISIS. 



The Brookings Institute fellow is also a special advisor at the State Department. I'm not surprised he thinks the way he does. He feels Putin is making a huge mistake in Syria. So does Obama and Kerry. So if Putin is making a mistake in Syria, why does Obama get upset about what Putin is doing in Syria unraveling American policy? Let Putin make a mistake and smile while he's at it.


Yeah, let's kick ass.



Another option is getting our ass kicked.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline sleepycat

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The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #246 on: October 13, 2015, 02:47:57 AM »
Oh dear!

Looks like some unscrupulous people fired rockets at huilo's embassy in Syria.

http://news.yahoo.com/two-rockets-hit-russian-embassy-damascus-hundreds-gather-083207124.html

The irony is the rockets used were probably manufactured in the USSR...  :popcorn:
« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 02:57:52 AM by sleepycat »

Offline Brasscasing

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #247 on: October 13, 2015, 08:10:01 AM »

[1]Actually Brass, two very conflicting statements.


[2]First, The EU is taking step (as in growing a pair) to deal with the aggression instead of the US carrying the stick as always. Now, isn't there a constant bitching from Americans that the EU is always expecting the US to go and kick butt and in return the EU will treat "us" with derision because we are always telling the whole world how to behave? That we spend the most $$$ propping up NATO and the EU ingrates all they do is bitch at us?


[3]And finally, well, finally. It is about time they (EU) FINALLY do something about it.


[4]What is strong leadership from your POV? Go in, guns ablaze and kick ass? Isn't that what got "us" into this mess to begin with?

[1] It's what is happening though. The EU, NATO, US, Middle East countries all developing their own strategies is not the way to move forward with this (now) multi faceted crisis. A fractured response from the west is advantage Putin.

[2] Some EU countries are being forced to make decisions, yes. However, I don't necessarily see this as a good thing strategically (at this time). The time for these countries to act would have been 18 months ago (which is what I was advocating for then).

Why they're being forced to fend for themselves is the bigger problem right now which is lack of leadership from the acknowledged world leader. Putin's geopolitical/military chess game could have been checkmated last year with some decisive action from the Obama administration.

Bottom line is all these countries (Middle East, Europe, Eastern Europe) doing their own thing piecemeal is not going to be as effective as a united front. What everyone's trying to avoid (general/regional war) is practically guaranteed without US leadership.

It's the way all our acronyms are set up, the US leads, the rest follow and contribute or get out of the way. Other countries may bitch and complain and not contribute their fair share but this is how the US set these organizations up, it's how they wanted it. Obama has abrogated that responsibility.

You can say "It's high time that paradigm changed." Well, over the last eight years it has changed and look at the miscreants that have stepped in to fill the vacuum.

[3] So when one of these lesser countries squeezes the trigger and invokes an Article 5 (or equivalent) dragging the US (and the rest of us) into the conflagration anyways, then that's ok? Because that's what is going to happen.

[4] No, it isn't (what got us into this mess in the first place). This mess is being caused by a leadership vacuum. You (collectively) default to politics (it's all Bush/Cheney/neocon flavor of the month's fault a decade ago) for something that has nothing to do with Putin's ambitions. Putin doesn't care that Obama's a liberal or Democrat, he cares that he's indecisive and lacks resolve.

To answer your question; Yes, military intervention , guns ablaze, kick ass...or at least be fully prepared for that eventuality. Up to 3 months ago I was advocating military intervention as Putin would have backed down. I'm not as sure of that any more now with his latest war front opened and new buddies the Iranians and Chinese (well, kinda buddy, are the Chinese ever anyone's buddy?) looking on.

Having said that, all these paths are still leading to the same place...war. As I've been posting for a while now -it's a pay now or pay more later scenario.

Brass 

...Build the wall. Even Heaven has a gate...

"Because without America there is no free world" ~ Canada Free Press

Offline Muzh

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #248 on: October 13, 2015, 08:52:13 AM »
Well Brass, we do differ in our opinions. But that's okay.  ;)


I keep hearing of this power vacuum because we are not going in guns ablaze. Is it really?


You have a gangster who is doing everything possible to hold on to power. Completely alienated and the country in taters. Is that the so-called leader? What I see is a gangster fighting for territory and we know from past experience, they don't last long.


That some idiot will pull the trigger and start WWIII? Even the gangsters are not that stupid.


We still own the world's most formidable army. That still scare the shit out of gangsters and they tread carefully. Just because we don't have a cowboy in the WH dumb enough to listen to unscrupulous cowards profiteering from war should label our POTUS a ninny.


Meanwhile, I'd let Putler exhaust everything he has, sit down and watch how his country collapse. Just like Nicholas II. They have no desire to be a civilized society, but then again, did gangsters ever did?


Keep in mind, the Middle East is using a religious crusade as an excuse to forward a geopolitical land grab. Do we really want to get in the middle of that mess? Are we really trying to christianize them so we can claim a moral victory? Is that leadership? Sounds more like Putler. I say they should sort things out before we waste our human assets in a war so far away. After all, we have our own oil. Once the dust settles you will see claims of another Ottoman empire. That's when we go in and kick ass if they have designs of conquering, which I see is the inevitable conclusion.
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead. Thomas Paine - The American Crisis 1776-1783

Offline Brasscasing

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Re: The Russian/Syrian connection thread
« Reply #249 on: October 13, 2015, 09:39:14 AM »
that is true....although if Obama is already acknowledging guilt...that probably bodes badly for those circumstances.

In Obama's defense, from what I've read about that telephone call he didn't acknowledge guilt. However, it wouldn't be the first time someone in uniform has been thrown to the wolves doing their job for political expediency/optics.

I take it you aren't including the 300-400,000 that have been killed or died as a result of the war? 

That's an overly generalized statement. If you look at the stats you'd find probably 70% of the civilian casualty rate is due to Taliban/insurgent operations/bombings and terrorism not Coalition/ISAF operations. In other words Afghans killing Afghans.

I'm just screaming 'war crime'! because that is what the US starts doing before any investigation. 

Oh, I don't know about that. It's relatively hard to substantiate a 'war crime' designation (legally). However, the phrase is thrown around a lot for shock value.

Once we are out of there, the attacks on OUR people in the region will be over....and the expenses will start going down a lot. 

Expenses, yes. The attacks, no. They'll simply switch to civilian targets of opportunity, diplomats, NGO's, foreign business, etc. They don't stop unless they're made to stop.

I actually don't agree that we didn't have ANY blame in the events of the middle east and subsequent terror attacks....we have been meddling and attempting regime changes well before 2001....in that context we probably did start this thing.   

Well, if you want to read why the US was attacked in 2001 (and the other terrorist acts), read on and learn from the horse's mouth then tell me if the terrorists were justified in their crimes...

Full text: bin Laden's 'letter to America'

The length of time has been ridiculously long almost 15 years so far.  There is probably an unapparent benefit we are getting from this.... 
I don't think the statement you made that I highlighted is going to make much if any difference...certain groups of people don't care, and making statements like that if anything is provoking more attacks.  What REALLY provokes attacks though is our constant meddling, I'm sure we receive benefits, and top members of our govt. probably excepts that terrorist attacks are the cost of doing business in the aggressive manner that we do. 

None that we're getting (other than whatever trade and business arrangements a have been put in place but right now I still believe that's a one way street of investment and infrastructure by the west). The Afghans remain relatively safe though and that's a good thing.

The rest of your comment are ideology, they're not based in fact or history and I utterly reject it's premise as it pertains to my quote. If you want to discuss the 'tactical' aspects of a limited occupation as opposed to a long term occupation we can do that. Keep in mind though that a common error is to assume that Afghanistan remains a belligerent occupation, it is not and has not been since late 2001. ISAF remained(s) at the behest of the Afghan government.

Brass

« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 09:48:03 AM by Brasscasing »
...Build the wall. Even Heaven has a gate...

"Because without America there is no free world" ~ Canada Free Press

 

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