The Struggle For Ukraine

[rwd123]

The markets aren't so bleak on Russia. The RUB is the strongest it has been since 2020 and in the trading range it has been in since 2014. Historically markets have provided a forward indication of the likely outcomes of war. Politics is an extension of economics, war is an extension of politics.

RF is swimming in funds, oil revenue is up 50%. They can finance the war a lot longer than Europe can. With the upcoming food crisis there's going to be a flood of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East to Europe... Europe is in a bad, bad way.

http://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-sanctions-russian-oil-revenues-soar-50-hitting-record-high

The US is facing domestic inflation pressures not seen in 40+ years. Great for Trump! All the bad news is on Biden's watch. Trump would pull out of Ukraine like he did in Afghanistan. The Dems have two and a bit years to blow shit up.

I recommend reading Martin Armstrong. He's apolitical and no BS. He talked about the east of Ukraine splitting off as the most peaceful resolution of the conflict... eight years ago. He also wrote about the covert military support Russia provided to the breakaway regions (with photos).

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/blog/

Sadly this is likely to be a multi-year conflict as it's an unofficial war between NATO and Russia. Things will get even messier when the CCP decide to drop the hammer and invade Taiwan.

I recommend keeping a few of sacks of rice at home. Spending a hundred dollars or a hundred quid on rice may turn out to be a handy insurance policy. We may witness the greatest global food crisis in our life times.

[Boethius]

Eastern Ukraine doesn’t want to split. It was possible in 2014, but things changed significantly.

As for the Russian economy-

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/russia-s-economy-facing-worst-contraction-since-1994

Not much rice is grown in Russia or Ukraine.  The rice I buy is grown in California. I am not going to store it because it may go up $5 for a 10 kg bag.

[rwd123]

As for the Russian economy-

Err... are you forgetting about the west? Over the past three months:

• S&P 500 down 11%
• DJIA down 8.7%
• US Composite Index down 17.5%

http://www.tradingview.com/markets/indices/quotes-major/

Many markets are down 10-20% since the start of the conflict. That's with massive inflation, the highest in 40+ years, and central bank interest rate rises. Cryptocurrencies and gold are also down. It's a global shit show, not just Russia.

Military spending will only exacerbate inflation. The rich will not be impacted as badly, hence you're not concerned about food prices. But the world is in for a shock.

[Boethius]

I am not rich.

Inflation predates the invasion.

Even absent the war, markets would have been choppy.

[krimster2]

Dear Lord Haw Haw

The west has a choice.
They can either “pay the price now” when it will be cheaper
or they can wait until after Putin grabs Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Moldova, etc
and pay a MUCH steeper price
the smart move is to do it now…
if Putin succeeds in his conquest of Ukraine, it will make Russia MUCH more powerful
this will make each subsequent conquest of his easier and easier
for example, if Putin conquers Ukraine, he’ll just add Ukrainian soldiers to his army of conquest

did you ever hear about a thing called WWII?
Adolph first seized the Rhineland in ‘36
then Austria in ‘38
then Czechoslovakia in ‘39
and then part of Poland in ‘39 which finally triggered WWII

some of us learned a lesson from this
and some of us apparently still want “Peace In Our Time”
but, the peace is only temporary
if you REALLY want peace, Russia must be SOUNDLY DEFEATED
and it’s power reduced, so that it stops its expansionism

inflation, is a small price to pay
when compared to the price Ukrainians are paying
whether we like it, or not, we ARE in this war with them

and if you’re smart, like some of us are
on the day the war started you bought nickle, palladium and oil futures
all my investments are rising with inflation, housing, commodities
I have a huge stockpile of EVERYTHING
I became a major “prepper” during Covid, and will continue this lifestyle

in a couple of months, my sons-in-law will get K-1 visas
and they and my daughters will be living permanently in the USA
I married an FSU woman and took her out of Crimea
and my daughters married two Moscovites
and they took them out of Russia
so me and my family are doing “our bit” for depopulating Russia non-violently, thereby reducing its power

I'm gonna take a guess about you
I'm guessing your scorn for Ukraine, comes from a bad romantic experience there
ever hear the expression, "hell hath no fury, like a woman scorned?"
my understanding is that rejection is a hurtful thing (never experienced it myself)
awww, poor baby
your fee fees got hurt
and to compensate, you became a Putin lover

I never really understood how someone could "screw-up" in Ukraine
things are SO FREAKING EASY there

[Boethius]

This is the views of the former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine. This was removed a few hours after it was published. Apparently, it is indicative of the Chinese communist party’s view.

http://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/fmr-prc-amb-to-ukraine-on-russias-impending-defeat-and-international-relations/

[krimster2]

I make a distinction with Gao Yusheng’s words.
Russia HAS NOT been defeated
Only the terribly misguided initial PLAN to invade Ukraine has been defeated
Russian victory will depend on formulating and implementing a NEW PLAN!

If I were Putin, my next move would be to stop wasting the Iskander and Tochka-U “raketta” on civilians and instead target Ukraine’s high altitude air defense missiles like the S-300 and Ukraine’s remaining fighter aircraft

once they’re destroyed he will have high-altitude air superiority, and can then safely deploy the ancient TU-95 bombers of which he has about 500 to carpet bomb Ukraine’s defenders on the Eastern and southern axis

and while doing this, raise a new army from 1,000,000 reserves and new conscripts to take advantage of the gaps his air force creates

however, if this approach is too complicated, then a simpler approach is to use EMP weapons against Ukrainian defenders

all the Western weapons have complex embedded computers that are subject to destruction by EMP
making them totally useless

The Soviet Union was the World leader in EMP weapons and Russia inherited all this technology
The more the west piles on sanctions against Russia, the fewer they have left to apply in the future
Little threat to Russia from the West with sanctions compared to the benefit of using EMP weapons
Indeed, it could even serve as a warning to the West
A major EMP attack over North America, would a year after the attack, kill 90% of the population, according to the USA’s own study

the west has only a few small prototypes
Russia has complete large scale systems ready to use either in Ukraine or in North America/Europe

China and North Korea now have nuclear capable ballistic missile submarines
if Russian subs shadowed them and launched from China/North Korean waters
who would the USA blame and what kind of retaliation (considering that EMP weapons would't even break a single window, just shotdown the grid and destoy all computers, phones, etc)

there are people in the GRU researching this right NOW!
what people in the West don't realize
is that Russia has too much at stake to lose this war!
if they lose this war, then the current kleptocracy oligarchy political system will collapse in a couple of years
so THEY have no other choice but to win or die

[Chelseaboy]

EMP's don't prevent Nukes being launched and hitting their targets.


So if an EMP would kill 90% of the USA population after a year i'd fully expect the USA would Nuke Russia within that year.


Sure Russia would launch Nukes back,but it wouldn't really matter if the USA population is dying off quickly anyway.


So Russia would be wiped out as well as the USA.


I'm sure Putler is well aware of this.

[krimster2]

Russia’s killer EMP attack on the West could be done with a handful of warheads
the casualties would take time, a year to reach full effect…
literally, not even a single window would be broken from an EMP attack
all we’d see would be a couple of REALLY bright flashes in the sky
it's rumored that the EMP weapons are already in orbit
we think they’re spy satellites
but they’re NOT!

What if immediately after the attack
Russia announces that if ANY missiles come to Russia, they will immediately target all Western cities in response
would the West still attack?

Russia has spent a LOT of effort simulating this and analyzing Western responses under different scenarios

using them in Ukraine would be easy, and totally wipe out all western weapons except artillery and firearms

there are plans to use China and North Korea as scapegoats
and I imagine these countries have similar plans with Russia as the scapegoat
so if this happens, I doubt we’ll ever know who really is responsible
or even care

if Pootin is dying of cancer already, will he care?
I dunno...

[Chelseaboy]

Horrendous day for the Orcs in eastern Ukraine .


They tried again to cross that river at Bilohorivka and got smashed ...again.


Film of that particular disaster for the Orcs being shown by an incredulous CNN today.


The western supplied 155mm Howitzers are absolutely hammering the Orcs behind their own lines...total carnage.


They've had to dig in to defensive positions around the Zaporizhia oblast because they're failing to advance.


Pro-Russian separatists/traitors against Ukraine from Donetsk and Luhansk being prevented from fleeing into Russia by Russian forces.and are now in danger of being encircled by angry Ukrainian forces.


Orc troops being shelled in the city of Kherson by precision western Artillery..with reports of countless Orcs killed and others arriving at hospitals with serious injuries.


[size=78%] [/size]

[Chelseaboy]

What if immediately after the attack
Russia announces that if ANY missiles come to Russia, they will immediately target all Western cities in response
would the West still attack?

Any attack on a NATO country by Russia will immediately elicit a response from all the other NATO countries..so yes the West would attack Russia.

[Chelseaboy]

using them in Ukraine would be easy, and totally wipe out all western weapons except artillery and firearms

The same would apply to the Orcs weapons in Ukraine.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukrainian forces now re-taking the Donbas region from the Orcs.


Six towns and villages have now been liberated in the region with the Orcs suffering heavy losses.

[krimster2]

China “got away” with launching a Bio-attack that killed over a million Americans and a similar amount in Europe

I do believe that Russia is more than capable of doing something similar and getting away with it as well

Russia’s economy in a couple of more years on its current course
will become “desperate”
Desperate times will call for desperate measures

Russia’s new leader, will be looking for “magic” that let’s him “pull a rabbit out of his hat”

various labs in Russia will audition for the magic “talent show”
the best will be chosen as the winner and receive fame and more importantly funding

nuclear EMP weapons have a radius that is determined by the height of detonation
so Russia can control this
they can also use “Explosively Pumped Flux Compression Generators” these have a range of only a few hundred yards, but they’re cheap to make so Russia could make thousands and mix them in with conventional bombs and saturate forward Ukrainian positions
Russia was the original inventor of this technology, it’s decades old

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1996/apjemp.htm

of course Russia could skip all this and just go for the Novichok in Ukraine, and not worry what NATO thinks about it

100 KG of the most potent of the Novichoks will kill 50% of the people in a 1 km radius
the US is concerned about this, but the amount of “chemical protection” they provided is too small and ineffective, more symbolic than real

I’m just saying, don’t get used to the idea that this war is winding down and that Russia’s gonna lose
there will be major surprises in store down the road

weird observation:
MIG model numbers are always odd numbers, 15, 17, 19, 21, etc
why is that?

fun video:
Russian Victory Day
http://twitter.com/i/status/1523935155181658112

[2tallbill]

I would read this article with a grain of salt. I don't know how much credibility
to give an article like this.

A COUP to boot "cancer-stricken" Vladimir Putin from power is already underway, Ukriane's spy chief has claimed.
http://www.the-sun.com/news/5337781/coup-remove-vladimir-putin-underway/

[krimster2]

Great movie
“The Death of Stalin”

The Russian “Urge to Purge” will surge
All oilygarch’s close to Putin will fall out of windows and commit suicide

Will the state suck up oligarch’s assets, or will there just be new oligarchs…
Clans are positioning themselves, first move was to get their families out of Russia
so it’s just clan soldati now
Tambov clan will lose out to Solntsevskaya

if I were still in Russia I’d be making some awesome IEDs right now
and would be in on the looting of private artwork, etc of Tambovs
bummer, that I gotta be a baby sitter instead
but this’ll have its rewards later

PS
Alexander Subbotin, a Lukoil exective just joined the Russian rock band, "The Dead Oligarchs"
the band is growing so fast, it'll soon be called an orchestra

[Chelseaboy]

[quote author=krimster2 link=topic=22223.msg565278#msg565278 date=165254047







I’m just saying, don’t get used to the idea that this war is winding down and that Russia’s gonna lose
there will be major surprises in store down the road







As i posted on here before...Russia WILL lose this war,one way or the other.


As i also posted,the only question is how many of us will they take down with them..because nothing the murderous sub-humans will do will surprise me in the slightest.


The thing is not to be afraid of them or show fear..because they feed on fear.


They see signs of morality as weakness.







NATO should stop saying "we don't want a war with Russia " because that lets the Orcs know we have lines we won't cross.


Better NATO doesn't respond to Orc threats and that will start putting doubts in the sub-humans minds as to actually how far NATO is willing to go...let them start worrying about us.


NATO needs to be ready to do whatever it takes ..because life isn't worth living if we spend the rest of it quivering in fear about what the Orcs will do next..

[Boethius]

It’s obvious even to me that battlefield strategies are being devised and directed by the US/UK. Thank God for that!  They are heads and shoulders above their Russian counterparts.

I won’t guess on what the future holds. I do hope Russia retreats and that peace prevails.

[Boethius]

I liked this piece on Ukraine’s Jewish community-

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/ukraine-jewish-community-russia-invasion-resistance-1351070/

[krimster2]

Jews have been outwitting the Russians for centuries
my ancestors were “contrabandit”  in imperial  Russia
and exploited the monopolies the Czar created for their own gain
for example, alcohol production was a monopoly the Czar gave to his druzya
and only they were allowed to produce it
and the Czar “got a piece” of course

but then along come the Zhidsters and make their own that’s even better quality (Kosher!) and cheaper (no Czar tax!)
and they made a small empire out of it while on the surface they were just harmless “peddlers”

I did the same thing, my great uncles taught me EVERYTHING I needed to know when I was a malchick, they were the top Jewish Mafia in Philadelphia, Prohibition was sent from God, as far as they were concerned, my family invested their profits into Mayonnaise and other Food products and created a second family business empire

so whenever laws are created, outlaws will be made as well
in Russia the opposite of an outlaw isn't a law abiding citizen, it's a slave
most Russians will choose slavery
but not my ancestors, and not me

my comments about Russia's future game changing strategy isn't meant to be a fear generator
just a warning about predictability vrs unpredictability
when Putin is gone, you can bet there's gonna be a lot of unpredictability
Putin's future will be clearer 6 months from now
1/8 of Russia's economy will disappear this year
and maybe another 1/8 two years from now
without an offset from aquiring Ukraine, and the leverage it would give over the rest of the world (you vant food, horrosho...just do what I say)
the current order will not survive

I would LOVE to go back to Russia if the winds shift to my favor
I love it there, except for the weather and my current status with the FSB

PS
The only thing more dangerous than a victorious Russia
is a defeated Russia
remember these words

[Steven1971]

http://electrek.co/2022/05/12/this-quiet-electric-motorcycle-is-helping-ukrainian-snipers-fight-back-against-the-russians/

[Chelseaboy]

UK Intelligence says that the Orcs have now lost a third of the ground forces they started with when they invaded Ukraine.

[krimster2]

A volshebnick wrote Putin a letter, telling him every reason why the war would fail, including the betrayal by the Silvoki, and slipped it under his door late at night

unfortunately, it slid under a carpet, and Putin didn’t find it, until it was too late

however good our intentions, however advanced our knowledge
we are all subject to changes in fortune that are as random as a roll of the dice at a crapshoot in a dirty alleyway

all of life is but a dream

[2tallbill]

RF is swimming in funds, oil revenue is up 50%. They can finance the war a lot longer than Europe can. With the upcoming food crisis there's going to be a flood of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East to Europe... Europe is in a bad, bad way.

Europe isn't financing anything. Like usual they will pay less than 10% of the
tab, which isn't even a decent tip.

[Chelseaboy]

The Orcs are now conscripting Ukrainian  women between the ages of 35-50 who are not single mothers, or otherwise don't have at least three children, from the Separatist areas in Ukraine to fight.


They must be getting desperate.