The Struggle For Ukraine

[fathertime]

1. Appeal to exaggeration. At the time Ukraine held a large number of Soviet-era nuclear weapons. In an effort to reduce the number of countries holding nuclear arsenals, guarantees were offered by the West AND BY RUSSIA for Ukrainian sovereignty and security. Your "jeopardize the planet with WWIII" bullshit is pure hyperbole.

No.  It isn't 'my' WWIII horseshit, although I do believe it is on the table.   There are a lot of people Lavrov himself has brought it up and many analysts are making the rounds in belief it is quite possible IF NATO takes a larger role.  It is already becoming a blurred line.

2. Probably this. Probably that. More speculative nonsense.

You may think everything is a sure thing.  For now, it is a maybe or probably. 

3. You failed to include the most profound part of the interview when she asked the question of what red line is it that Putin must cross before the West intervenes. Of course, that question presupposes one starts from the position that Putin's aggressions are unwarranted - a step too far for you it seems.

Actually, it is you that failed to discuss that aspect of the interview in context.  I've discussed the points that I was ready to discuss.  If there are points that you feel are necessary to bring up, obviously you should do it. 

Fathertime!   

[GQBlues]

Former MI6 Chief On the Ukraine & Russia Conflict | Oxford Union

Thanks for sharing the video. Actually watched the whole thing, but man that was painful. I thought Gavin Newsom was bad, but he takes the cake.

One can only hope the suffering stops sooner than later.

[GQBlues]

Correct, they have contempt for Germany and France.
These last two countries needed a lot of time to realize it, but now it's done.
And things are unlikely to be fully restored.

Patagonie-


I understand how Germany can be looked at by Moscow as being submissive, or even passive, as to me it has a very deep reliance on Russia's energy provision. But as a Frenchman, why do you think France is looked at by Russia as such (weak)? Hell, Macron have the only open communication with Russia at this time.


Could it be that France had always been apprehensive in its NATO membership? It first withdrew from the alliance, IINM, back in the late 60s and took what I think 40+ years before rejoining for a heavily conditioned membership (absent doctrine for mutual assured destruction). Which explains its non-military contribution to this obsolete organization when required. So maybe Russia sees that as being 'weak'?


What do you think?

[Patagonie]

Patagonie-


I understand how Germany can be looked at by Moscow as being submissive, or even passive, as to me it has a very deep reliance on Russia's energy provision. But as a Frenchman, why do you think France is looked at by Russia as such (weak)? Hell, Macron have the only open communication with Russia at this time.


Could it be that France had always been apprehensive in its NATO membership? It first withdrew from the alliance, IINM, back in the late 60s and took what I think 40+ years before rejoining for a heavily conditioned membership (absent doctrine for mutual assured destruction). Which explains its non-military contribution to this obsolete organization when required. So maybe Russia sees that as being 'weak'?


What do you think?

GQ 
I think it's more about how France has managed the crisis of the Yellow Jackets and the fact that it doesn't control his immigration. Marriage between homosexuals, couple of men or couple of men adopting babies and so on.
It's more about moral values IMHO.
Additionally Macron is the exact type of young French blue-collar that is having no clue about the Slavic soul. I suppose that the previous Presidents were better in this exercise. 

[GQBlues]

GQ 
I think it's more about how France has managed the crisis of the Yellow Jackets and the fact that it doesn't control his immigration. Marriage between homosexuals, couple of men or couple of men adopting babies and so on.
It's more about moral values IMHO.
Additionally Macron is the exact type of young French blue-collar that is having no clue about the Slavic soul. I suppose that the previous Presidents were better in this exercise.

So what you're saying is, it's more in line 'culturally' than any. Macron, at least from my distant perspective, does seem to be disfavored by its citizens.

Just read an article today about how he perceived the result of his recently concluded communication with Putin. Very bleak for Ukraine.

[JohnDearGreen]

Belarusian soldiers refuse to invade Ukraine
http://www.unian.ua/world/biloruski-soldati-vidmovlyayutsya-vid-vtorgnennya-v-ukrajinu-jim-pogrozhuyut-zmi-novini-svitu-11727526.html?utm_source=unian&utm_medium=read_more_news&utm_campaign=read_more_news_in_post

http://world.segodnya.ua/world/wnews/belarus-ne-budet-voevat-v-ukraine-zayavlenie-lukashenko-1606575.html

[tfcrew]

Thanks for sharing the video. Actually watched the whole thing...

Yeah? I am limited on time__ What did he say?

[tfcrew]

   If Russia feels the weaponry is going to make it to Ukraine, they may feel the urgent need to exterminate Ukraine's military on an accelerated timeline, with less and less regard for 'collateral damage. 

It has been demonstrated that they have no regard for this at all.

[fathertime]

It has been demonstrated that they have no regard for this at all.

I'm hearing mixed reports.  Some are practically saying they are lining up women and children and shooting them. I'd need to see videos of this to believe it.     Others are saying they are permitting civilians to leave in predetermined routes.  This seems plausible. 

Fathertime! 

[ML]

I'm hearing mixed reports.  Some are practically saying they are lining up women and children and shooting them. I'd need to see videos of this to believe it.     Others are saying they are permitting civilians to leave in predetermined routes.  This seems plausible. 

Fathertime!

There are not mutually exclusive situations here.

It is true that many people are leaving Ukraine mostly unhindered by Russian terrorists.

However, it is also true that Russian terrorists are shooting into houses along the streets as they move through.

[fathertime]

There are not mutually exclusive situations here.

It is true that many people are leaving Ukraine mostly unhindered by Russian terrorists.

Yeah, not the Russian terrorists but what about the Ukrainian guards.... 
This will not be looked at favorably in African nations, or by most anyone else.  Quite a few accountings (And accompanying video) so it is probably true. 

African students fleeing Ukraine report racial discrimination at borders
The last 24 hours of her journey in the queue, Sky said, were the worst because that’s when she started facing “racism and segregation.” She said that while she and her husband were making their way to the front of the line, Ukrainian civilians began aggressively circling their car, with one man allegedly lunging at her....

.....“The Ukrainian border guards were not letting us through. They were beating people up with sticks” and tearing off their jackets, she added. “They would slap them, beat them and push them to the end of the queue. It was awful.”

....Other accounts using the #africansinukraine hashtag (but unverified by Yahoo News) involve African men, women and children being shoved off trains and buses by Ukrainian troops....

http://www.yahoo.com/news/african-students-fleeing-ukraine-report-racial-discrimination-at-borders-234429880.html 

Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

It's not a racial thing, though, FT. 


Ukrainian men have very different attitudes toward women (and children) than do WM.  So they would hold back foreigners who are 99% men in favour of letting women proceed to cross the border.

[GQBlues]

Yeah, not the Russian terrorists but what about the Ukrainian guards.... 
This will not be looked at favorably in African nations, or by most anyone else.  Quite a few accountings (And accompanying video) so it is probably true. 

African students fleeing Ukraine report racial discrimination at borders
The last 24 hours of her journey in the queue, Sky said, were the worst because that’s when she started facing “racism and segregation.” She said that while she and her husband were making their way to the front of the line, Ukrainian civilians began aggressively circling their car, with one man allegedly lunging at her....

.....“The Ukrainian border guards were not letting us through. They were beating people up with sticks” and tearing off their jackets, she added. “They would slap them, beat them and push them to the end of the queue. It was awful.”

....Other accounts using the #africansinukraine hashtag (but unverified by Yahoo News) involve African men, women and children being shoved off trains and buses by Ukrainian troops....

http://www.yahoo.com/news/african-students-fleeing-ukraine-report-racial-discrimination-at-borders-234429880.html 

Fathertime!

That’s terrible. But that’s true most everywhere.

[GQBlues]

Yeah? I am limited on time__ What did he say?

Mostly various angles where this conflict could potentially end. As a career intelligence personnel he just shared insights to the wacky mind of Putin that most are aware of to begin with.

[Trenchcoat]

A lot of those ethnic groups have a very self important outlook. They don't think they think they should be allowed in with the women/anyone else but I'm front of them. They think they are entitled to push themselves to the front of the queue as soon as matters change in their interest to do so. Unfortunately for them they were born with penis's and in such a time in a country like Ukraine in such a circumstance they have least value. They would be better making their way on foot than waiting there forever more while women are constantly pushed in front of them.

[Chelseaboy]

Yeah, not the Russian terrorists but what about the Ukrainian guards.... 
This will not be looked at favorably in African nations, or by most anyone else.  Quite a few accountings (And accompanying video) so it is probably true. 

African students fleeing Ukraine report racial discrimination at borders
The last 24 hours of her journey in the queue, Sky said, were the worst because that’s when she started facing “racism and segregation.” She said that while she and her husband were making their way to the front of the line, Ukrainian civilians began aggressively circling their car, with one man allegedly lunging at her....

.....“The Ukrainian border guards were not letting us through. They were beating people up with sticks” and tearing off their jackets, she added. “They would slap them, beat them and push them to the end of the queue. It was awful.”

....Other accounts using the #africansinukraine hashtag (but unverified by Yahoo News) involve African men, women and children being shoved off trains and buses by Ukrainian troops....

http://www.yahoo.com/news/african-students-fleeing-ukraine-report-racial-discrimination-at-borders-234429880.html 

Fathertime!

The BBC tried to put a racial spin on this..being a lefty outfit....and failed.


They have reporters at the Polish border with Lviv,and they were thrusting microphones under black refugees arriving from Ukraine.


"Were you put to the back of the queue for getting out of Ukraine " ? They asked.


"Yes we were "was the reply.


"So this was racial discrimination then " ? the reporter eagerly asked of a black woman.


"No..the Ukrainians were putting Ukrainian people before foreigners ".


"Oh " replied the thwarted reporter.

[fathertime]

It seems the west's biggest weapon thus far has been finances.  Years or decades ago this weapon would have been more effective but may be a little watered down in 2022. 
The Ruble has gone down in value a lot since the war started from 80 to 112 (Estimate)
At the same time Oil has gone up in value from $75 a barrel to $110  (Estimate) 
It seems that this will nullify the effect of sanctions.  The US continues to buy 600,000 barrels of oil from Russia DAILY.  I would assume (Especially now) that Russia is getting paid immediately and in dollars. 

It wouldn't benefit us much if we tried to stop buying the oil.  China or India would probably buy the oil anyway.  I think other nations are leery of the US trying to freeze countries out, because they realize at some point down the road, they will either be frozen out, or the looming threat would exist and occasionally be used as a lever to apply pressure. 

Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

The BBC tried to put a racial spin on this..being a lefty outfit....and failed.


They have reporters at the Polish border with Lviv,and they were thrusting microphones under black refugees arriving from Ukraine.


"Were you put to the back of the queue for getting out of Ukraine " ? They asked.


"Yes we were "was the reply.


"So this was racial discrimination then " ? the reporter eagerly asked of a black woman.


"No..the Ukrainians were putting Ukrainian people before foreigners ".


"Oh " replied the thwarted reporter.

I don't think all the accounts can be dismissed by one interaction you are quoting.    That said, I know the media likes to headline racial issues such as these.     Still the accounts are some people are actually being beaten, so there is probably some truth to it.   

Years ago when it was Syrian's trying to escape, they were called dregs of society, and terrorists among chants of send them back! ....now that it is Ukrainians, they are civilians.     In both cases they are civilians.   

Fathertime!

[tfcrew]

African students....

The Polish are vetting people based on appearance. So what?
Who is to know who is entering? Unlike the US border which should be very important...any Tom, Dick, & Harry, or Abdul the Islamic terrorist is wandering on in.

[fathertime]

The Polish are vetting people based on appearance. So what?
Who is to know who is entering? Unlike the US border which should be very important...any Tom, Dick, & Harry, or Abdul the Islamic terrorist is wandering on in.

I don't think the focus was Polish guards vetting people.  That is totally ok to do obviously.   Poor treatment by Ukrainians is the aspect of the article I was referring to.  Beatings...being pushed off a train...accountings like this. 

The US border has become lax.  Dominican Lady came into my shop recently and said she had never seen it so easy to come through the checkpoints.  The border people were practically sleeping and waving everybody through at Tijuana border crossing.

Fathertime!     

[fathertime]

If I were a foreign investor, I'd be uninterested in investing in the US or Europe going forward.   Foreign investment is one of the keys to the US economy.  A lot of our taxes are paid by foreigners who invest in our real estate, stocks, and projects.  We don't make very much stuff here in the states to export, so this was one of the ways to recapture some of the money we hemorrhage on imports. 

Chinese, Russian, Indian among others may reconsider investing here and stick to investing in their home countries.  I think the idea WAS to invest some of their assets here in the states to diversify their portfolios.  The US is proving to be an unsafe place to invest, as assets can be seized suddenly.  This is a complaint I often hear about investing in the 3rd world, that laws can change overnight, and you suddenly lose everything.   

I will be curious to see if there is a long-term effect from US and EU policy.   

Sanctioned Russian billionaire banker Mikhail Fridman was locked out of the private-equity firm he cofounded and staff were told to ignore him, report says

.....Russian billionaire and banker, Mikhail Fridman, was locked out of the investment firm he cofounded after he was hit by European Union sanctions, the company announced on Wednesday.....

....Fridman's assets in the company were "effectively frozen" and his rights as a shareholder were taken away, LetterOne's press release said. He won't receive dividends, funds, or communications in any way, said LetterOne.....

http://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/sanctioned-billionaire-russian-banker-mikhail-105222192.html 

Fathertime! 

[Chelseaboy]

I don't think all the accounts can be dismissed by one interaction you are quoting.    That said, I know the media likes to headline racial issues such as these.     Still the accounts are some people are actually being beaten, so there is probably some truth to it.   

Years ago when it was Syrian's trying to escape, they were called dregs of society, and terrorists among chants of send them back! ....now that it is Ukrainians, they are civilians.     In both cases they are civilians.   

Fathertime!

If there was racism going on concerning the evacuation of people from Ukraine the BBC would have found it..it's their go to.


An Indian guy was complaining at Kiev train station that he'd been pushed back with a rifle butt in his back,but he'd been trying to force his way past a Ukrainian woman and her child onto a train.


Black men on the steps leading up to the platform were being VERY aggressive toward Ukrainian women and their children in their way,until Ukrainian troops yelled at them to get back,and then lifted the women and children up out of the crush and onto the platform..this was all filmed by Sky News.


No signs of any beatings though.


Two sides to every story eh ?

[Chelseaboy]

Bad news for Trench.


625,000 refugees have fled to Poland from Ukraine so far and i found out today there's already a large Ukrainian population in Poland.


All those Ukrainian guys waiting to comfort those single hotties ..and those girls will now get to stay in the EU with their new partners.


It couldn't have worked out any worse for Trenchie.

[Patagonie]

Bad news for Trench.


625,000 refugees have fled to Poland from Ukraine so far and i found out today there's already a large Ukrainian population in Poland.


All those Ukrainian guys waiting to comfort those single hotties ..and those girls will now get to stay in the EU with their new partners.


It couldn't have worked out any worse for Trenchie.

[Boethius]

It seems the west's biggest weapon thus far has been finances.  Years or decades ago this weapon would have been more effective but may be a little watered down in 2022. 
The Ruble has gone down in value a lot since the war started from 80 to 112 (Estimate)
At the same time Oil has gone up in value from $75 a barrel to $110  (Estimate) 
It seems that this will nullify the effect of sanctions.  The US continues to buy 600,000 barrels of oil from Russia DAILY.  I would assume (Especially now) that Russia is getting paid immediately and in dollars. 

It wouldn't benefit us much if we tried to stop buying the oil.  China or India would probably buy the oil anyway.  I think other nations are leery of the US trying to freeze countries out, because they realize at some point down the road, they will either be frozen out, or the looming threat would exist and occasionally be used as a lever to apply pressure. 

Fathertime!

Russia is a kleptocracy.  So hitting them with really tough sanctions will work, because the elite won't be able to spend their ill gotten gains.  There's only so much borscht, blini, and vodka one can consume.