The Struggle For Ukraine

[ML]

The ruble has stabilized because it isn't traded, and the Central Bank has poured a lot of foreign reserves into it.

Here's a good article from the WSJ.

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Boe thanks for posting this excellent article.

I couldn't have written a better explanation myself. :-)

[Nightwish]

Putin has signed a decree to draft 134,000 Russians into the military.


I'm guessing the official Kremlin figure of 1,351 Russian military killed in Ukraine is a bit on the low side.

This is quite normal though, Russia has two conscript periods, one is april 1 and one in the winter, both have a number around 100 000 each period.

Written in the constitution is that a conscript can not be sent to the front  until 4 months of training  unless country is under Martial Law

4 months = cannonfodder

I can highly recommend 'Walter Report' on Twitter (that's a space - aka audio)
One of these two almost always host them (24/7)
http://twitter.com/walterlekh

http://twitter.com/ferlain
Can be listened to both with app or on computer, on the twitter app you can join in and ask questions.

A lot of eyewitness reports, Ukrainians living in different parts join in, sometimes a soldier or two with first hand reports from the front, and of course a lot of both European and American ex. soldiers or other very knowledgeable people in a lot of areas.   

[Trenchcoat]

Interest rates at 20 percent and inflation at around 15 percent or more will combined have a very damaging effect on the Russian economy. Money will be getting worth a lot less and if Russians have loans on variable rate it will make them very expensive not least to say about the ability to borrow. In the shops in Russia there are many empty shelves, food queues, etc. If all of that results in widespread discontent & civil disorder in Russia, Pootin could find him having his hands full there. Combine that with the best of their army being busted up and performing poorly and it could all come back to haunt Pootin.

I think sanctions and supplying Ukraine with defensive anti tank weapons is proving to be a winning strategy. Boris has stated that sanctions should be ramped up to bust up the Russian economy even harder. That and we are sending more weapons to Ukraine to further the winning strategy there. I think there is a possibility if we can bust up the Russian economy and army enough the whole of the Russian Federation may de-federate and a second break up of Russian territory occur. All of those Oligarchs in Russia probably eager to lead their own country and get out from under the thumb of Pootin.

Winter is coming to an end here in the west, in addition to talking usage of Gas In think if we temporarily banned the use of Gas to residential property and instead used microwaves for a short period we could really cut our reliance on Gas over the Spring & Summer throughout Europe. That could really make a dent in the Russian economy along with other further sanctions. I think a total ban on Russian companies and products being sold in the West would really do the trick, in a few weeks we could collapse in Russia and remove their overly aggressive bullying nature for good

[Patagonie]

In Ukraine’s shoes, assuming the locals want to be part of Russia, I would let Crimea and the Donbas region now in Russian control go. I would demand a referendum, overseen by independent observers. If a free election were held, I suspect both areas would vote to join Russia. If so there’s no net gain to Ukraine in keeping them.

+1

[tfcrew]

Ukrainian woman whose village was stormed by Russian troops says they wore her clothes, stole money, and drunkenly shot off her husband's leg

A Ukrainian woman whose village was stormed by Russian troops over the weekend told CNN they wore her clothes, stole money, and drunkenly shot her husband in the leg.
The woman told CNN that the Russian troops were acting out of control as they ransacked her home in a village close to Brovary, an eastern suburb of Kyiv.
"They wore my woman's hat, my coat, my boots. They wore our clothes. They took our bedding ... I don't know what they've done with it," she told CNN in an emotional interview. "They slept. They ate. They wandered about. They stole our money."
She also told CNN one of the Russians was drunk and used a stolen shotgun to blow her husband's leg off. She added that two of the troops later admitted that they didn't support Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
She said she attended to her husband in the basement of their home for two days before bringing him to the main hospital in Brovary, where CNN interviewed her.
Her husband was lying in a hospital bed next to her with his leg bandaged as she was being interviewed.

http://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-woman-whose-village-stormed-101536095.html

[Patagonie]

Ukrainian woman whose village was stormed by Russian troops says they wore her clothes, stole money, and drunkenly shot off her husband's leghttp://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-woman-whose-village-stormed-101536095.html

Rapes have started also.
Killing civilians on spot also, probably at least hundreds.
They seem to deport also a lot of people.
Intimidation of individuals has started in the territories they control.
That's just the beginning and we aim to a dirty war as it happened in Tchetchenia.

[Chelseaboy]

Oil depot in Belgorod,Russia now hit by an attack by seemingly two Ukrainian Helicopters.

[2tallbill]

Inflation is over 15% in Russia. 

Of course the central bank took huge actions to get it under
control. That's what central banks do.

What do you think the true inflation rate is in the USA? The US
is totally cooking the books to report it as 7.9% I would be
surprised if the real US inflation rate was less than 15%.

In my anecdotal situation, I can easily see what is happening to
prices of gas, food, cars and construction materials.

[2tallbill]

The ruble has stabilized because it isn't traded

http://www.forex.com/en-us/forex-trading/usd-rub/

[2tallbill]

Oil depot in Belgorod,Russia now hit by an attack by seemingly two Ukrainian Helicopters.

I thought that your statement warranted an article with a video. The Belgorod
fuel depot is approximately 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

WATCH: Missiles strike oil depot in Belgorod, Russia
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60953243


Moscow says Ukraine hit a fuel depot inside Russia
http://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

[Chelseaboy]

Chernobyl has now been abandoned by Russian troops..with the last of them leaving this morning.


There are reports that the Russian troops started becoming ill with Radiation poisoning.


What this has done is leave 20,000 Russian troops around Kyiv totally isolated and surrounded by Ukrainian troops.

[krimster2]

in Russia, "News" reports YOU!!! so here is Roskomnadzor free news showing status of "special military operation"
is now time for Russ-see-ya to switch to plan "Beh", the one from the GazProm focus group....
win, by whatever means necessary

Special Military Operations Gaz Table Edin

    Hydrogen cyanide – Sarin is 81 times more lethal
    Phosgene– Sarin is 43 times more lethal
    Sulfur mustard – Sarin is 28 times more lethal
    Chlorine– Sarin is 543 times more lethal
   
     VX is 6.5  times more lethal than sarin
     Novichok is 65 times more lethal than sarin

Russian Disinformatze is always simple....
accuse "Enemy" of doing what you're going to do first
then DO IT!!

example:
when you want to "steal the vote", you create organization called "Stop The Steal"
see how easy?

so when you hear of Russian accusations against Ukraine
thern you'll know
that the excrement is about to hit the "reciprocating cooling device"
and ya'll better not be standing in front of it
slovo!

[Patagonie]

Chernobyl has now been abandoned by Russian troops..with the last of them leaving this morning.


There are reports that the Russian troops started becoming ill with Radiation poisoning.


What this has done is leave 20,000 Russian troops around Kyiv totally isolated and surrounded by Ukrainian troops.

I cannot imagine, letting XXXX soldiers for weeks in such region 

[ML]

I don't understand how Russia is able to destroy Mariupol.

What are they using ?

Why Ukraine can't attack and destroy whatever it is Russia is using?

[krimster2]

"I cannot imagine, letting XXXX soldiers for weeks in such region"

ain’t no liberte, egalite, fraternite in Russia, mon amie
you need to take a walk on the dark side to appreciate Russia

[Patagonie]

Chernobyl has now been abandoned by Russian troops..with the last of them leaving this morning.


There are reports that the Russian troops started becoming ill with Radiation poisoning.


What this has done is leave 20,000 Russian troops around Kyiv totally isolated and surrounded by Ukrainian troops.

If Ukraine could surround RF forces in N of Kiev and in NE (Sumy) they could potentially in the next 10 days destroy 2 RF divisions.
This means more than 20000 soldiers out of action and 250 main battles (part of them will be reused by Ukraine).
In the WW2 on the Barbarossa front the engaging and destroying strategy has always been a winner, better than seizing and holding.
On the long term, you cannot easily replace regular and elite troops, and your heavy equipment faster than your losses with the first strategy.
And I don't believe that the RF is producing 20 main tanks per day and the necessary skilled tanks crews.

[Patagonie]

"I cannot imagine, letting XXXX soldiers for weeks in such region"

ain’t no liberte, egalite, fraternite in Russia, mon amie
you need to take a walk on the dark side to appreciate Russia

Krim, my friend, I have been living 12 years in a dictature, fortunately, I was protected with my French passport, so I DO know very well what happens in this type of regime when they corner full throttle on the dark side.

[ML]

If Ukraine could surround RF forces in N of Kiev and in NE (Sumy) they could potentially in the next 10 days destroy 2 RF divisions.
This means more than 20000 soldiers out of action and 250 main battles (part of them will be reused by Ukraine).
In the WW2 on the Barbarossa front the engaging and destroying strategy has always been a winner, better than seizing and holding.
On the long term, you cannot easily replace regular and elite troops, and your heavy equipment faster than your losses with the first strategy.
And I don't believe that the RF is producing 20 main tanks per day and the necessary skilled tanks crews.

I hope Ukrainian military is thinking of this.

[ML]

Krim, my friend, I have been living 12 years in a dictature, fortunately, I was protected with my French passport, so I DO know very well what happens in this type of regime when they corner full throttle on the dark side.

Hi Pat.  'have been living' is current tense which I don't think you meant to infer.

Do you mean to say 'I previously lived 12 years in a dictatorship.'

[Nightwish]

I don't understand how Russia is able to destroy Mariupol.

What are they using ?

Why Ukraine can't attack and destroy whatever it is Russia is using?

Artillery, both conventional and rocket based

When we asked a soldier down there that same question he answered, "we do destroy them as much as we can, Russia just have a shitload of them and brings in more all the time."

The recent eyewitnesses that gotten out from the city talks about planes dropping bombs every 2-3 minutes in the last weeks since they got caught of from the rest of Ukraine and no air-defense could get to them anymore

so yeah, that's how they do it.

[Patagonie]

Hi Pat.  'have been living' is current tense which I don't think you meant to infer.

Do you mean to say 'I previously lived 12 years in a dictatorship.'

Correct, that's what I mean "'I previously lived 12 years in a dictatorship.'

[Patagonie]

This is the exploit that Ukrainian have achieved:  Kroutoï !!!!
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/45020/ukrainian-mi-24-attack-helicopters-fly-daring-cross-border-strike-on-russia-reports

[Patagonie]

Read carefully:"Belgorod sits roughly just 18 miles north of the border with Ukraine, but there are a huge amount of Russian forces arrayed between there and Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, which has been under assault from Russian forces since the war began. The possible fact that lowly Mi-24s were able to infiltrate Russia in such a heavily militarized area to make such a brazen attack would be a damning indictment of Russia's air defense capabilities. That area would be especially heavily populated by layers of air defense systems, including many short-range units that are specifically designed to target and engage low-flying helicopters in any conditions." 
That's truly heroic. Unbelievable.
 
So I do believe at this moment the Russian air commander is having a bad time and preparing his chimodan to join few Ukrainians who are sent to the far East of Russia for political refurbishing.

[ML]

This is the exploit that Ukrainian have achieved:  Kroutoï !!!!
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/45020/ukrainian-mi-24-attack-helicopters-fly-daring-cross-border-strike-on-russia-reports

Wife told me of this incident this morning.

She said her Ukrainian sources stated that some of the external features of the helicopters indicated they were Russian, not Ukrainian.

[Nightwish]

Wife told me of this incident this morning.

She said her Ukrainian sources stated that some of the external features of the helicopters indicated they were Russian, not Ukrainian.

It is very discussed on twitter on who really did this, everyone seems to have their mind made up..

A good joke came out of it
"Jens Stoltenberg called Orc president Putin and asked him if he wanted Nato to enforce a nofly zone over the Ukraine-Russian border to prevent such heinous attacks"

because IF it is truly Ukraine who did this, this is a propaganda win, pants down mr Poootin