The Struggle For Ukraine

[Bee Farmer]

There is no operational benefit in targeting civilians with such weapons.

If you believe that, then you do not recognize the operation.

Ask yourself - what kind of operation would be benefited by targeting civilians?  Then you will see the operational benefit.

[Bee Farmer]

There's no operational benefit in torturing and executing civilians, raping children and women, and looting and destroying homes, but that's all happening too.

Actually, there is benefit.  (Think of boxers - they try to get under the skin of their opponent so they react on emotion, instead of using their head.  Terror tactics take your opponent out of their right mind.) 

Ask yourself what kind of operation could be benefited by those things.  Then you will see the operational benefit.

Russia's GPD is expected to contract by 11% this year.
Ukraine's GPD is expected to contract 45%.
If you destroy the infrastructure and morale, their GDP will suffer for decades.  PTSD will not go away as soon as the war ends, regardless who wins.

What was the operational benefit of the Holodomor?  It broke the Ukrainian resistance to collective farming.

How long did Ukraine suffer the emotional after-effects of the Holodomor?  Does it still affect the psyche of Ukrainians?

[Grumpy]

[Bee Farmer]

I think if Ukraine was smart, they would start full-scale production of alcohol.  In some, put psycho-active drugs, especially ones which cause hallucinations and paranoia.  Let a few drunk Orcs attack everyone in their battalion. 

In other bottles, put poisons which cause blindness, or incapacitate soldiers.  Don't kill them though.  A dead soldier only removes one soldier from the battlefield.  A wounded soldier requires 2 more to take care of him - a wounded soldier removes 3 from the battlefield.  Or just make them so sick they can barely do anything.  True combat ineffective.

Stock stores in front line areas with these bottles of alcohol.  Do a tactical retreat, allowing the Russians to take the village.  Allow the Russians to do what Orcs do...loot and plunder and drink alcohol.  When they are sick and hallucinating, counter-attack and drive them back farther than when they began.

In central Italy, the Roman army nearly made honeybees go extinct.  They discovered that if they put a clay pot hive in a catapult and threw it at the enemy, it made a great weapon.  While it wouldn't kill the enemy, the stinging bees took a lot of the fight out of them.
The Ukrainians would be well served to find ways of taking the fight out of the Russians, even if they are non-lethal methods.

[Jumper1]

The Russians have pinned down a large portion of the Ukrainian army in the south, and any moving from the north will face death from above. Supply lines will get hit and without them they're as good as dead. Southern Ukraine is no longer Ukraine! Plenty of Russian flags going up on buildings... if you're reading MSM then you're probably getting a distorted view. A mix of Telegram channels will give a better picture.

Some analysts have stated the Russian troop movements in the north were a bluff so that they could more effectively perform their operations in the south. Once the south falls it's as good as game over.

Boe - I'm not saying the Italian reporter is accurate, I have said it was inconclusive (but it's funny how it drops out of the news once it is reported). I've been pretty consistent in saying the first victim of war is the truth. Without an open mind one will fall back into personal biases.

I watch a mix of channels.
I've not seen anything that shows recent  Russian progress.
Weeks ago yes, all the way up.to Kirov rog areas .
Later pushed all.the way back.to kherson. They lost ton of ground north, completely, then lost a lot south.

They did seemingly make a bit of  headway back on the southbeast portions  yesterday and today  ,but nowhere near the amount they had made prior .really seems a few klicks at best.
The biggest points today  for Russia was the Russian defense ministry saying they took out some headquarters and a lot of equipment in.the donestk westetn region thru missle strikes.
If true that's significant.

They seem to have only   made a few streets progress in mariupol, time is on thier side there, so they dont need to.

If you are seeing flags raised in telegram, share the towns or villages  nsmes,I'd be interested, I'm.sure others would as well since we may have family members there

[krimster2]

the gas target is the central heating system of Mariupol

see
http://mariupolrada.gov.ua/en/news/u-mariupoli-modernizujut-sistemu-teplopostachannja60ae230470849

these are a BUNCH of underground tunnels which are being used by the UA military for cover and movement
the gas is denser than air and will collect in the tunnels
since there aren't really too many intact tall buildings in  Mariupol, there's no place for anyone to hide in the city from gas (normally get to the roof of the tallest building)
and I doubt many people have CBW protective gear....

about 100 kg of A-232 will kill 50% of the people in a 1 km radius
so I can imagine a drone with a small bomb can "take-out" a city block or so...

since Odessa has maybe 30,000 armed citizens ready to take on invaders
I can imagine that use in Mariupol is just a prelude to Odessa and the catacombs

here's a pic from a central heating tunnel in Moscow
these were all built in Soviet period, and I've been in several in different Russian and Ukrainian cities
they all look the same
they used to be prime "rave" spots
damn, I miss the good ole days...

[Chelseaboy]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1594611/russia-chemical-weapons-ukraine-latest-vladimir-putin-mariupol

Putin testing the western response...
if it's OK to use in the UK and Europe in small quantities
then let's steadily increase the quantity in Ukraine
and see what happens

The UK's Armed Forces Minister James Heappey did not rule out that British or NATO Troops could be deployed in Ukraine if the Orcs used Chemical Weapons


When asked,when speaking on the radio today, whether he could rule out deploying British or NATO Troops on Ukrainian soil he replied "No,all options are on the table ".

[Patagonie]

There are basically two options for the RF army.
 
Put their troops in entrenched defensive positions to let the Ukrainian army attack, so it will reverse the attrition. 
And try to negotiate later on this basis. 
 
OR
 
From the entrenched defensive position, rebuild offensive forces and try to cut the bulk of the Ukrainian Donbass divisions as
they have already tried. 
The fact is, for the moment, they don't have such forces. Not enough armored forces, not enough skilled infantrymen. Or theseforces are being rebuilt and it takes time before they reach the southeast front. 

[Chelseaboy]

There are basically two options for the RF army.
 
Put their troops in entrenched defensive positions to let the Ukrainian army attack, so it will reverse the attrition. 
And try to negotiate later on this basis. 
 
OR
 
From the entrenched defensive position, rebuild offensive forces and try to cut the bulk of the Ukrainian Donbass divisions as
they have already tried. 
The fact is, for the moment, they don't have such forces. Not enough armored forces, not enough skilled infantrymen. Or theseforces are being rebuilt and it takes time before they reach the southeast front.

They have a third option..pack their s..t and go back to Dumpski.


The Ukrainian Forces in the East are used to Trench Warfare...they've been doing it for eight years...they'll just wear the Orcs out if they try to get into defensive positions.

[krimster2]

so...
dear friends,
it appears that over 100 FSB members of the "fifth directorate" responsible for Ukraine and other FSU regions have been purged
AND Vladislav Surkov who is a rabid anti-Ukrainian and former deputy prime minister has been arrested
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislav_Surkov
THIS is major...

haven't heard how this effects the GRU, usually when one branch falls, the other rises
the GRU organized shock battalions in the 2nd Chechen war and gave themselves the credit for victory
will they repeat
GRU is Novichok fluent

Disclaimer: I'm a Surkov "fanboy" when he writes under his pseudonym of Natan Dubovitsky

[Patagonie]

so...
dear friends,
it appears that over 100 FSB members of the "fifth directorate" responsible for Ukraine and other FSU regions have been purged
AND Vladislav Surkov who is a rabid anti-Ukrainian and former deputy prime minister has been arrested
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislav_Surkov
THIS is major...

haven't heard how this effects the GRU, usually when one branch falls, the other rises
the GRU organized shock battalions in the 2nd Chechen war and gave themselves the credit for victory
will they repeat
GRU is Novichok fluent

Disclaimer: I'm a Surkov "fanboy" when he writes under his pseudonym of Natan Dubovitsky

What's your analysis of Surkov's arrest?

[krimster2]

"What's your analysis of Surkov's arrest? "

Those who KNOW don't SAY
and those who SAY don't KNOW
and besides, no one in Russia takes my calls anymore

but the purge flu seems to have infected a LOT of top-level siloviki (which is Putin's turf after all)
including Kostyukov, head of the GRU
looks like the Houston Gazprom office is closing and transfering GRU staff to Mexico
no more consulting work
later other segments of Russian government and industry will get sick as well
not healthy being there while Pootin is angry and in a rage
whenever someone displeases him, this is the usual result
but I've never heard of a Pootin rage-athon this big
I expect some extreme action to take place

[2tallbill]

including Kostyukov, head of the GRU
looks like the Houston Gazprom office is closing and transfering GRU staff to Mexico
no more consulting work

Hahaha you still find a way to my funny bone

Udachi!

Bill

[krimster2]

"Hahaha you still find a way to my funny bone"

is that what you call IT?
I call mine "Mr. 11 inches"
cuz if it was an inch longer it'd be a foot!!

[Patagonie]

"What's your analysis of Surkov's arrest? "

Those who KNOW don't SAY
and those who SAY don't KNOW
and besides, no one in Russia takes my calls anymore

but the purge flu seems to have infected a LOT of top-level siloviki (which is Putin's turf after all)
including Kostyukov, head of the GRU
looks like the Houston Gazprom office is closing and transfering GRU staff to Mexico
no more consulting work
later other segments of Russian government and industry will get sick as well
not healthy being there while Pootin is angry and in a rage
whenever someone displeases him, this is the usual result
but I've never heard of a Pootin rage-athon this big
I expect some extreme action to take place

Lol it's because I don't know and I don't say that I ask 

[krimster2]

Viktor Medvedchuk who was supposed to be Pootin's chosen figurehead to replace Zelensky, but this idea failed just like the rest of this special operation
he was just arrested after going into hiding

[ML]

http://saharareporters.com/2022/04/11/russian-soldier-arrested-after-filming-himself-raping-baby-ukraine

http://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russian-soldier-arrested-for-raping-baby-in-ukraine-after-sick-video/news-story/4369cbb9d8a92968b8ea8e1b093dada2

[krimster2]

Russians deny this rape occured
they claim that this was consensual
and just go ahead and TRY to slap ME for this joke Will!!!

meanwhile...

Rosa Mira

What IF
Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine
was deliberately engineered to fail


and lastly, I believe that if the messiah was ever gonna show up
he'd have been here by now
the world lost it's groove a long time ago
and it's gonna be all downhill from now on

abandon all the illusions
and the doors of perception will open
and  a magician can become a king
if I were Pootin, I'd kill Surkov instead of leaving him in jail

[Boethius]

An Italian journalist has disclosed the serial number on the missile that hit the train station. It's reported that it is a Ukrainian missile... aaand the west goes silent on that one.

I looked into this.  The markings suggest the missle was a Tochka-U class.  The serial number the Italian journalist referred to is from the factory, and was applied to all rocket shells at the  JSC Votkinsk Machine Building Plant (Воткинский завод) in Russia.  That factory has produced missiles since 1957.  All missiles from that factory bear that particular serial number, whether those missiles are launched from Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Syria, Yemen, or North Korea.  Russia claims they do not use the Tochka-U class missile.  However, on April 8, a Tochka-U missile was shot down over Chernihiv by Ukraine. That missile had been launched by the Russians from Belarus.  According to Amnesty International's Crisis Evidence Lab, a Tochka missile was launched by Russia on an aid distribution point in Vuhledar on February 24, killing four. 

Missiles from that same series were used by Russia in Syria, including on an oil refinery in Aleppo.  Russian media was full of reports of this strike.

Bottom line is, this wasn't a Ukrainian missile.

[Jumper1]

I looked into this.  The markings suggest the missle was a Tochka-U class.  The serial number the Italian journalist referred to is from the factory, and was applied to all rocket shells at the  JSC Votkinsk Machine Building Plant (Воткинский завод) in Russia.  That factory has produced missiles since 1957.  All missiles from that factory bear that particular serial number, whether those missiles are launched from Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Syria, Yemen, or North Korea.  Russia claims they do not use the Tochka-U class missile.  However, on April 8, a Tochka-U missile was shot down over Chernihiv by Ukraine. That missile had been launched by the Russians from Belarus.  According to Amnesty International's Crisis Evidence Lab, a Tochka missile was launched by Russia on an aid distribution point in Vuhledar on February 24, killing four. 

Missiles from that same series were used by Russia in Syria, including on an oil refinery in Aleppo.  Russian media was full of reports of this strike.

Bottom line is, this wasn't a Ukrainian missile.

I believe the  number is designation numbers,  the serial numbers I think are stamped not painted.

You won't typical  have a 5 of 6 digot serial.number armaments in any military

If you look at the list of Ukrainian missles and thier numbers listed,  in that referenced article none of them have any real bearing on.anything but place of manufacturer .

That article premise is suspect at best.

In addition no same person creating a false flag paints a message on a missiles body ,but leaves a painted serial number that would distinguish who fired it.

Also, I saw that someone  faked a BBC article on exactly this.
Going to.the.trouble  of faking a BBC report to try and  legitimize the info is a pretty good indicator its completely false

[Jumper1]

Viktor Medvedchuk who was supposed to be Pootin's chosen figurehead to replace Zelensky, but this idea failed just like the rest of this special operation
he was just arrested after going into hiding

Wasn't he put under house arrest previously?

Buying and selling coal.from.donbass?

Being a political.opposition leader with 13 or so percent of people's vote, I do find the jailing ,wether house or cell,of opposition as something Ukrainians leadership  shouldn't be doing.

It looks bad no matter hoe you slice it to me.

The charges are what?
What were they prior?

I'm obviously pro Ukraine, but these type of things look exactly like what putin does  in the world view.

Unless making it much more clear what the prior offense was,and current one is.

[krimster2]

yes, Google is your friend....

[Jumper1]

yes, Google is your friend....

Lol! RT.NEWS?

It was questions.

I simply never heard the actual charges/reasons for his prior or current arrests.

Or if it ever made a hearing,a trial or any judicially procedure previously.


I'm no fan of the guy,was just pointing out it looks bad *if*  any administration imprisons  opponents without due cause or  clear explanation of charges filed.

[Trenchcoat]

Looks like Mariupol is about to be taken over by Russia, I'm surprised they've managed to hold out so long, dove remarkably well considering.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-60894476

May not look good for the guy in question if he got to surrender as it may not do for those that do:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/13/aiden-aslin-british-fight-ukraine-mariupol/

Looks like the Russians were trying to draw out his unit into attacking them so they could get at them more easily by attacking civilian targets. In the end though lack of supplies over time seem to have been their main enemy. Being surrounded and cut off though there was no hope of that.

Mariupol is one city that will likely not be easy to recover soon, retaking Kherson will likely be an easier target for Ukraine.

[krimster2]

he's so close to Putin that he was one of the first sanctioned over Crimea by the Obama admininstration in 2014

"Medvedchuk is also being designated because he has materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support to Yanukovych and because he is a leader of an entity that has, or whose members have, engaged in actions or policies that undermine democratic processes or institutions in Ukraine and actions or policies that threaten the peace, security, stability, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Ukraine."

it would take me WAY too long to write out his specific activities of theft and treason and treason and theft
he'd been under house arrest for around a year, and decided to leave....
bad choice

I would't worry too much over the "optics"
lawyers in my opinion, have a natural ability for defusing IEDs and clearing land mines
perhaps he should be employed this way as a form of "community service" to pay off his debt to Ukrainian society