Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?

[BC]

Running off isn't really an option.  Just look at all us Americans today packing in the last flights home to stand in line for hours with thousands of others while health officials do their checks in addition to the standard wait time for customs etc. Will only take a small percentage of those folks to infect many others as there will be those that have not been tested and are asymptomatic or still in the incubation period.

We experienced a somewhat similar but different situation here, when the lockdown was announced, many in the north headed home to the south which also helped spread the virus. Trains and planes were packed. Those that did head home were asked to self-report themselves so they could be somewhat tracked and followed up on along with self-containment measures. Tens of thousands did self-report.

[BC]

As I was saying....President Trump mentioned in his press conference that 36,000 people die annually on average in the USA with Flu..yet no-one says anything about that.

50 people die of Corona virus and it's a national emergency.

Of course the Trump hating media can't hold him accountable for the Flu..it's been around for yonks...so they're beating him with a stick over this new virus instead and inducing hysteria among the population..suits their agenda.

Same happening over here is happening with the lefty media bashing Boris Johnson..no matter what he does they'll spin it against him.

Any economic crash will have been created by an agenda-driven media who want to make the news rather than just report on it...and gullible public are falling for it.

Chelseaboy,

you like others seem to be hiding behind drawn curtain Nr 3.  We have decades of experience with influenza, we have some decent treatments and immunizations.  Our hospitals regularly test for influenza with a capacity of beds and intensive care facilities that are numbered to deal with a defined range of patients based on past experience.  As seen in Italy, besides having a larger number of doctors and beds per capita, the additional cases can overburden capacity in some areas.  It is yet to be seen whether infections grow as rapidly in other areas and how effective containment has been.

We don't know squat about this Coronavirus, whether or not it can mutate like influenza possibly affecting other portions of the population or whether it becomes more infective or dangerous in the future, whether or not it is seasonal. Nor do we know the real numbers in areas that have not been or do not have the capacity to test a larger portion of the population. 

Considering all the unknowns, is it not prudent to handle and take measures accordingly?  In the US we don't know if 50, 500 or 5000 have died from the virus.  As far as I know the dead are not being tested.

[Chelseaboy]

BC,
   
    You're right ...we don't know squat about the Corona virus..just that it seems more lethal to older people.

My point is that it isn't for the equally clueless media and the social media "experts" to try and influence Governments into what they should be doing.

There was an interesting press review on Sky News this weekend where it was admitted that certain people are being deliberately controversial in their damning of our Government's handling of the situation just to get themselves more air-time and clicks .

Really sorry to see what's happening in your country..but good to see the people keeping their spirits up by singing on their balconies.
I couldn't see that happening here..our lot are too busy snagging the last packets of Paracetamol,hand-wash or loo paper in another day of stockpiling to be concerned about keeping their neighbours spirits up.

[Gator]

By mid-April, the count projected is 90,000 infections and 360,000 in quarantine that with symptoms since it all began. Total deaths expected to reach more than 3000.

IMO that's splendid news!  I hope it declines as per the "official" projections, which BTW resemble my microbiology lab results from 50+ years ago.   

The epidemic was horrible for the 3000 and their families, yet when viewed for the entirety of Italy, 3000 is insignificant, especially considering we can presume many were already in an advanced  state of health decline.  In comparison, what are the average number of flu deaths in Italy?   

I am certain the social distancing measures were a pain in the ass, yet a necessity to flatten the curve.   

[GenMish]

So far in the USA, its a slow motion shutdown. Anybody like me that can work from home is, I have been instructed not to travel internationally . Sports and entertainment venues are closing in slow motion. Supermarkets around me are well stocked. It looks like restaurants are down a little in business, but nothing drastic so far

I don't want to get into the various speculations about which country or leader is best handling the crisis. But I will give a shout out to the Friday news conference where government and Corporate leaders came together with a plan. Whether their plans work or not, is another story. I applaud VP Pence initiative to bring major competitors into a discussion for the benefit of all Americans

I am still holding to the opinion this will peak in the next few weeks, and by May things will be close to normal

[fathertime]

To add to the level of seriousness here in California, I read this morning that almost all the LA and southern California Casinos have been closed or are closing in the next 24 hours.  Enough industries and cash cows seem to be taking the whole thing seriously to make me think it isn't a hoax.    In addition, I read another article talking in terms of 1-1.5 million deaths in the US from the virus within 18 months.  Perhaps clickbait or rubbish

I have a man coming to my business this morning, he intends on buying out much of my equipment.  He runs a marijuana farm near the Mexico boarder.  Given much of the entertainment is being stripped, I won't be surprised if the 'Marijuana industry' increases greatly.  He has a barracks for his employees.  I don't know if he is factoring in that people may become ill or choose to go to their families.  I suspect most of his employees are recent immigrants, probably illegal. 

Visited my dad last night, didn't really visit actually, The nursing home denied access so we tried to talk through his window.  He is hard of hearing so nothing much was communicated, and ultimately we threw up our hands. 

Fathertime! 

[Gator]

As far as I know the dead are not being tested.

Unlikely for COVID-19.  A COVID-19 test gives a black-white answer, yet history, clinical observations and other tests give a reasonable indication.   

The alarms would go off if the deceased had upper respiratory symptoms yet no specific flu virus was detected.   The concern would be to protect medical staff and family members who had contact with the dying patient. 

I expect the number of undetected COVID-19 deaths is small. 
   

[BC]

In comparison, what are the average number of flu deaths in Italy?   

I am certain the social distancing measures were a pain in the ass, yet a necessity to flatten the curve.   

Gator

From the information I dug up yesterday deaths from influenza itself in the hundreds and from other complications around 7,000 per year.  See my previous post on that.

The containment efforts do seem to be holding up here in the south, for now.  Will take a few more days though to see if it holds.  Social distancing is only one part of overall containment.

As posted above we don't know much about this bug which makes these measures prudent despite deaths relative to other causes.  It is, however, an obviously huge burden on the medical system in critical areas which is the main intent of isolation measures.

There are secondary advantages to containment and restriction of movement as well.  The streets and highways are very quiet, thus less accidents and hospitalizations which frees capacity for the more difficult virus cases.  I would expect even normal cases of the flu will be reduced as well as further reducing demand for critical care beds over time.  Considering the start of the countrywide lockdown and incubation periods of normal flu and Covid, we still have a few days to go..

It's really not about beating this bug at all but instead to ensure those that need care can get it and buy time necessary to understand it better and find good treatments.

Imagine having a bad accident, or heart attack, or stroke, or pneumonia to find that your local hospitals are already overloaded.  Other critical care needs did not go away with the virus and medical personnel are greatly affected.  If these other workloads were not present we wouldn't have a problem with capacity to deal with this new virus.

[Trenchcoat]

Running off isn't really an option.  Just look at all us Americans today packing in the last flights home to stand in line for hours with thousands of others while health officials do their checks in addition to the standard wait time for customs etc. Will only take a small percentage of those folks to infect many others as there will be those that have not been tested and are asymptomatic or still in the incubation period.

We experienced a somewhat similar but different situation here, when the lockdown was announced, many in the north headed home to the south which also helped spread the virus. Trains and planes were packed. Those that did head home were asked to self-report themselves so they could be somewhat tracked and followed up on along with self-containment measures. Tens of thousands did self-report.

I personally reckon the US is in for the same as the rest of us, they are probably at best only a couple of weeks behind the UK. Those Americans could be running into the problem than being in the problem at present. If that graph is anywhere near correct BC staying where you are would at least mean you may be in one of the countries first out if the problem, but I think it will still be a case of being in lockdown for some time to come, maybe over a year or more since those countries coming out of the problem won't want other countries to re-infect the population. I reckon in the end it will be a case of hefty measures in place for flying abroad. At the very least thermal imaging camera's in all airports and at border crossings.

Did you get on a flight to the US, BC?

[BC]

I expect the number of undetected COVID-19 deaths is small. 
   

Expecting and knowing is a world of difference and very important for the decision-makers.  Not all influenza cases are tested either since a  diagnosis of symptoms alone - until now - would likely be considered valid for influenza.  Some of the first cases were discovered because treatment was not working warranting further testing.  When results came back negative for influenza eyebrows got raised.  Since then many, most with symptoms were tested along with recently deceased when possible.  This, of course, would not be feasible where Covid specific testing was not available.

[BC]

Did you get on a flight to the US, BC?

And have very high chances of catching it on the way in a packed plane for 10+ hours, then crammed like sardines in the customs hall with thousands of others for several more hours, some who are surely carriers or in the incubation period - just to risk infecting my parents in their 80's with all of us ending up begging to get in the hospital in a week or two??  No way in hell.  We Facetime instead.

Consider the zig-zag line system in the US.. one passes every person in the neighbouring lines on each side multiple times within sneeze cough and spitting distance.

[Trenchcoat]

And have very high chances of catching it on the way in a packed plane for 10+ hours, then crammed like sardines in the customs hall with thousands of others for several more hours, some who are surely carriers or in the incubation period - just to risk infecting my parents in their 80's with all of us ending up begging to get in the hospital in a week or two??  No way in hell.  We Facetime instead.

Consider the zig-zag line system in the US.. one passes every person in the neighbouring line multiple times within sneeze cough and spitting distance.

I don't blame you BC, I think you are best of where you are avoiding all of that, certainly no worse of in most likelihood. I would definitely want at least a decent mask and goggles to brave that and even then I wouldn't fancy it or my chances.

[GQBlues]

...Folks in intensive care in the primarily affected areas are increasing 700+ or so now vs 650 a couple of days ago. Although there may be isolated cases where difficult decisions had to be made, it does not seem to be a widespread problem as GQ seemed to insinuate.  Such decisions are made daily even without an epidemic...

LOL. That wasn't an 'insinuation'. Hardly. I gave you an Italian news link, complete with audio testimony from two Italian doctors saying they're overwhelmed and don't have enough respirators and are choosing who gets to live and who gets to die. I asked you to validate if the report is true or fake news, all of the sudden, you don't know how to speak Italian to verify if the audio is legit.

So here's another report from yesterday..
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/coronavirus-italian-doctors-on-how-ireland-can-avoid-disaster-1.4202054

So again, I will ask. Is it true the Italian healthcare system are faced with having to let people die because they are not properly equipped to treat the sick? Lest you once again imply *I am insinuating* such tragic Italian reality, if true.

As for...

Trench, would you kindly stop posting this kinda crap?  It only makes things worse for other dipsticks that read and might believe such crap.  You are only projecting your fears on other gullible folks.  If you are worried about the aerosol spread, wear a mask.

OY!...speaking of 'insinuation'.

  In the US we don't know if 50, 500 or 5000 have died from the virus.  As far as I know the dead are not being tested.

LMAO! Wuhan didn't even reached past 4,000 dead yet, BC. You're really CNN-programed. Still can't get over the 2016 election. Get closure, man. If you do not know, then why practice exactly what you're telling Trenchcoat to refrain from doing?

Anyway, I'm glad the Chinese red cross shipped you folks additional, urgently needed respirators so you guys can avoid havig to 'sacrifice people to save people'.

Pretty funny posts BC. You can't help your anti-American sentiment from showing. I hope you enjoyed your breakfast.

[SANDRO43]

There are secondary advantages to containment and restriction of movement as well.

Home burglaries have declined dramatically, too .

[GQBlues]

To add to the level of seriousness here in California, I read this morning that almost all the LA and southern California Casinos have been closed or are closing in the next 24 hours.  Enough industries and cash cows seem to be taking the whole thing seriously to make me think it isn't a hoax.    In addition, I read another article talking in terms of 1-1.5 million deaths in the US from the virus within 18 months.  Perhaps clickbait or rubbish

I have a man coming to my business this morning, he intends on buying out much of my equipment.  He runs a marijuana farm near the Mexico boarder.  Given much of the entertainment is being stripped, I won't be surprised if the 'Marijuana industry' increases greatly.  He has a barracks for his employees.  I don't know if he is factoring in that people may become ill or choose to go to their families.  I suspect most of his employees are recent immigrants, probably illegal. 

Visited my dad last night, didn't really visit actually, The nursing home denied access so we tried to talk through his window.  He is hard of hearing so nothing much was communicated, and ultimately we threw up our hands. 

Fathertime!

Many of the marts, like Walmart, is adjusting their business hours to allow for re-stocking. Walmart is open 24 hours, but have now cut hours so they can have the time not only to re-stock but to clean and disinfect the premise.

Mother nature is probably trying to help California. It's raining down the entire state assuring people to stay inside, notably home. Likely adding to the perception of either compliance or seriousness of the moratoriums. I hope the former.

[BC]

Home burglaries have declined dramatically, too .

I'm sure of that

Good to see you, Sandro.  Hope all is well with you, friends and loved ones.

Please do feel free to correct any information in my posts above. As to local conditions up there you are the authority.

[GQBlues]

Unlikely for COVID-19.  A COVID-19 test gives a black-white answer, yet history, clinical observations and other tests give a reasonable indication.   

The alarms would go off if the deceased had upper respiratory symptoms yet no specific flu virus was detected.   The concern would be to protect medical staff and family members who had contact with the dying patient. 

I expect the number of undetected COVID-19 deaths is small. 
   

Completely agree. Although it's an inconvenient for some as it doesn't fit their narrative.

[BillyB]

As I was saying....President Trump mentioned in his press conference that 36,000 people die annually on average in the USA with Flu..yet no-one says anything about that.

50 people die of Corona virus and it's a national emergency.

Of course the Trump hating media can't hold him accountable for the Flu..it's been around for yonks...so they're beating him with a stick over this new virus instead and inducing hysteria among the population..suits their agenda.

Same happening over here is happening with the lefty media bashing Boris Johnson..no matter what he does they'll spin it against him.

Any economic crash will have been created by an agenda-driven media who want to make the news rather than just report on it...and gullible public are falling for it.

What is going on in China and Europe has nothing to do with Trump being at fault. Smart voters know this. Trump is not claiming this is a hoax. He declared it a national emergency with only a few dozen Americans dead. The governments aren't telling the public how dangerous this virus is. The media doesn't even have enough info to know how dangerous this virus is and report that info to us and they are even writing articles of hope that a vaccine will soon be found. Fake News. My wife's cousin, who teaches in a college in Germany, said German's are close to finding a vaccine. My wife is mad at me because she says her cousin talks to really smart people. I think my wife has hope. I deal in reality. I gave my wife a challenge to search the internet for a vaccine or anti viral medicine for a coronavirus.

Politicians who are still finger pointing should be the ones voted out. This is a time they need to come together to save their citizens lives and I'm starting to see that in America.

We don't know squat about this Coronavirus, whether or not it can mutate like influenza possibly affecting other portions of the population or whether it becomes more infective or dangerous in the future, whether or not it is seasonal. Nor do we know the real numbers in areas that have not been or do not have the capacity to test a larger portion of the population. 

We know enough about this virus to take the steps we see today. There is no and most likely will  be no cure or treatment based on past attempts on coronavirus's. There are two strains of COVID-19 floating around in a matter of months. The belief a person can get this once, build an immunity and never get it again significantly diminishes. If this virus keeps mutating, the test kits we have now may not work on a future virus.

While adults get 2-3 colds a year, children get 6-10 colds a year. Probably why schools are the first to close although kids have a low chance of dying. COVID-19 is a relative of the cold virus.

I hope Italy succeeds in their nationwide lockdown but I believe this is only the first one. Unless your neighbors and the rest of the world synchronize lockdowns and participate in a group effort, the virus may enter Italy again under a new strain that fools test kits and doctors. North Korea still reports zero infections. It's nations like those that refuse to participate and probably doesn't have the adequate testing equipment to find the infected that'll prolong the fight against the virus. Hopefully China has enough test kits for N Korea. It's hard enough to create test kits for 1.4 billion people. It's hard for any nation to create enough test kits for their population and it's why they recommend self isolation so we can burn the virus out of our bodies with our own immune system without infecting more people at the same time and overloading the medical community.

[Trenchcoat]

In the UK it has been announced that within a few weeks the elderly over 70 years old will be told to self isolate:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

It also looks that the government is not now going to close Schools but instead keep them open:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-51835486


I think that both measures are the correct course of action to take. As is said in the reports closing schools would mean key workers having to stay at home. Worse than that is that many more workers would have to stay at home and the economy would start to buckle under the strain. Workers without children can't be expected nor forced to do more work to make up the labour shortfall that would cause if that is even possible. Children here are supposedly in general least at risk so it makes sense for them not to be the cause of greater chaos. If anything perhaps it would be best to keep them at school over Easter, half terms and the summer holidays also

[Gator]

Expecting and knowing is a world of difference and very important for the decision-makers. 

We are somewhere along the information continuum that extends from zero to complete information.
Yet making decisions on imperfect information is what we do, assessing reality and reacting pragmatically. 

We are behind Italy in testing.  Thus,  it is possible that more testing would show US has more COIVID-19 deaths than Italy.   Or is the difference in reported deaths a result of different practices between the two nations (e. g., in January the US controlled travelers from China)?     

We will always have blind spots. 

     -  How much testing and study would be necessary to determine the significance of contagious yet asymptomatic carriers?  If significant, what would we do?   

     -  Is the spreading broadly and randomly based or more a focused result of COVID-19 equivalents of "Typhoid Mary."

     -  Is the difference in individual susceptibility a random event, or do some people have a more protective immune system (they have shields a la  Starship Enterprise)? 

     -  To quote you, "We don't know squat about this Coronavirus, whether or not it can mutate like influenza possibly affecting other portions of the population or whether it becomes more infective or dangerous in the future, whether or not it is seasonal."

IMO, our governments are doing what is practical; however, the degree of hysterics among our citizens is unwarranted.         

[BC]

LOL. That wasn't an 'insinuation'. Hardly. I gave you an Italian news link, complete with audio testimony from two Italian doctors saying they're overwhelmed and don't have enough respirators and are choosing who gets to live and who gets to die. I asked you to validate if the report is true or fake news, all of the sudden, you don't know how to speak Italian to verify if the audio is legit.

So here's another report from yesterday..
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/coronavirus-italian-doctors-on-how-ireland-can-avoid-disaster-1.4202054

So again, I will ask. Is it true the Italian healthcare system are faced with having to let people die because they are not properly equipped to treat the sick? Lest you once again imply *I am insinuating* such tragic Italian reality, if true.

I didn't say I don't know how to speak, read or write Italian, only that I would hate to get something wrong in translation and deferred to Sandro if he wanted to chip in with his authoritative linguistic expertise.

As for...

OY!...speaking of 'insinuation'.

LMAO! Wuhan didn't even reached past 4,000 dead yet, BC. You're really CNN-programed. Still can't get over the 2016 election. Get closure, man. If you do not know, then why practice exactly what you're telling Trenchcoat to refrain from doing?

4,000 is well within the 22,000 to 55,000 range of estimates of flu deaths since October.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Without testing nobody knows.

You seem to be the only one that has mentioned elections.

Anyway, I'm glad the Chinese red cross shipped you folks additional, urgently needed respirators so you guys can avoid havig to 'sacrifice people to save people'.

Pretty funny posts BC. You can't help your anti-American sentiment from showing. I hope you enjoyed your breakfast.

Yes, it was very considerate and generous of China to help out.  They assisted Iran as well.
http://www.chinadailyhk.com/article/122782

From the article : The coronavirus disease is enemy of all, Hua said. “We must fight together".

You are of course entitled to your opinion, or is it 'entitled opinion'?  buh.. your problem, not mine.  I encouraged Sandro to correct anything I posted above. Feel free to ask him directly if you want about the 'sacrifice' scenario or anything else for that matter.  He is at the front.

And yes, we did enjoy brunch together.

[Gator]

Home burglaries have declined dramatically, too .

In the not-too-old days, homes with smallpox infections had warnings posted on the door.  A few Southern plantations were saved from pillaging Yankee soldiers by nailing a fake "smallpox" sign on the door. 



 

[GQBlues]

I didn't say I don't know how to speak, read or write Italian, only that I would hate to get something wrong in translation and deferred to Sandro...

Then tell us what *you* believe it was. I’m sure you’re at least MORE than capable of understanding basic Italian. Heck if not that, verify the ‘written report’ since it’s written in English. It won’t matter where in Italy you are, after all you seem to believe you’re capable of *knowing every details* in the US despite being thousands of miles away from it.

Why not just verify whether this is true or fake news so *I* won’t be accused of insinuating anything. Yes or No.

And yes, we did enjoy brunch together.

Awesome.

[BC]

We are somewhere along the information continuum that extends from zero to complete information.
Yet making decisions on imperfect information is what we do, assessing reality and reacting pragmatically. 

We are behind Italy in testing.  Thus,  it is possible that more testing would show US has more COIVID-19 deaths than Italy.   Or is the difference in reported deaths a result of different practices between the two nations (e. g., in January the US controlled travelers from China)?   

The virus is obviously present in the US, so it's more a matter of where in the timeline we are (referring to the US).  A graph of US projections is likely not possible based on the small amount of testing thus far.   

We will always have blind spots.

Indeed.  There is a CDC playbook.  Has leadership been following it?

     -  How much testing and study would be necessary to determine the significance of contagious yet asymptomatic carriers?  If significant, what would we do?   

That will likely take time, so best to expect and prepare for the worst or?  It is how our military works (which btw is also on locked down in place with all planned unit movements and relocations cancelled)

     -  Is the spreading broadly and randomly based or more a focused result of COVID-19 equivalents of "Typhoid Mary."

Maybe, maybe not.  Again prudence advised until we know more.

     -  Is the difference in individual susceptibility a random event, or do some people have a more protective immune system (they have shields a la  Starship Enterprise)? 

From experience and the numbers show so far, mostly the aged, with other health and immunity issues.  Seems though no one has a 'shield' as other ages are affected as well, but not to the same extent... thus far.  It is still too early for many details.

     -  To quote you, "We don't know squat about this Coronavirus, whether or not it can mutate like influenza possibly affecting other portions of the population or whether it becomes more infective or dangerous in the future, whether or not it is seasonal."

IMO, our governments are doing what is practical; however, the degree of hysterics among our citizens is unwarranted.       

For folks like Trench and Krimster I tend to agree with you.  I'm not noting too awful much hysteria among those we know around here.  How is it in your community?

[BC]

Then tell us what *you* believe it was. I’m sure you’re at least MORE than capable of understanding basic Italian. Heck if not that, verify the ‘written report’. It won’t matter where in Italy you are, after all you seem to believe you’re capable of *knowing every details* in the US despite being thousands of miles away from it.

Why not just verify whether this is true or fake news so *I* won’t be accused of insinuating anything. Yes or No.

I posted what I thought I heard in my previous post.  From all the reporting I have seen, I can't exclude such scenarios having occurred in isolated cases, but not as a general rule like 'don't put folks over 60 on respirators.  Sandro may know more.