Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?

[GQBlues]

...
I hope Italy succeeds in their nationwide lockdown but I believe this is only the first one. Unless your neighbors and the rest of the world synchronize lockdowns and participate in a group effort, the virus may enter Italy again under a new strain that fools test kits and doctors. North Korea still reports zero infections. It's nations like those that refuse to participate and probably doesn't have the adequate testing equipment to find the infected that'll prolong the fight against the virus. Hopefully China has enough test kits for N Korea. It's hard enough to create test kits for 1.4 billion people. It's hard for any nation to create enough test kits for their population and it's why they recommend self isolation so we can burn the virus out of our bodies with our own immune system without infecting more people at the same time and overloading the medical community.

In the meantime, China is confident enough they’ve controlled the virus and had closed the last temporary coronavirus hospital.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-masks-video-doctors-nurses-hospital-a9402631.html?amp

[GQBlues]

News from LA. It’s nuts why people do this.
It apparently came from the UK.

Bummer that Mammoth is closing during a time of great coverage and was a very promising epic spring skiing season.

[BC]

GQ,

Some bad intentioned folks in Italy were going door to door announcing they are from the dept of civil defence and doing door to door tests - just to gain entry and try and rob folks.  Went viral on official and social media so now everyone knows about it an call the police right away if they see something similar.

[Gator]

From experience and the numbers show so far, mostly the aged, with other health and immunity issues.  Seems though no one has a 'shield' as other ages are affected as well, but not to the same extent... thus far.  It is still too early for many details.

I am talking about two opportunities where susceptibility is a factor. 

        1.  First is the actual exposure to the virus.  Some people exposed will not become infected because:   a)  their mucous membrane, etc.  stop it,  or b)  the transport pathway to susceptible targets within the body, e. g., lungs, is intercepted,  or c)  infection is random and dependent upon the actual number of COVID-19 viral agents inhaled/ingested, or d) more likely something else, or e) a combination of many factors?   
                       
         2.  Second is  the body's reaction to COVID-19 viral agents that have reached host cells of vital organs.   The immune response in some/many people eliminate it.  Ironically, the serious cases are ones where the body's autoimmune response goes unchecked, and the patient dies especially when added to an existing medical condition.

http://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

Aristotle:  “The more you know, the more you realize you don't know.”





   

[BillyB]

The virus is obviously present in the US, so it's more a matter of where in the timeline we are (referring to the US).  A graph of US projections is likely not possible based on the small amount of testing thus far.   

America is going to be fine compared to Europe. After all said and done, I hope you give Trump credit for swift and racist correct action banning travel from China. 

Although America is behind Italy in testing, we have an idea where this is going and our curve isn't going to be as bad as European nations. I watch the video GQ posted with Trump and Co speaking. 98-99% of all people tested are coming back negative. My county is worst hit in America and we have priority in test kits over small towns USA. Tests are available for anybody. With a low percentage coming back positive, it means we had very few people walking around infecting others.

I went shopping this early Sunday morning when there was no lines. No toilet paper on the shelves and people were buying paper towels instead. I hope they have a plunger at home. I read a report some homeless guy escaped from quarantine. I don't know why he didn't like a roof over his head, three meals a day, and a warm room. Probably escaped because he needed drugs. There will be idiots like him that doesn't take the virus seriously. I don't watch right wing news but it sounds like some are reporting it's a hoax or the virus is no big deal. Some people won't take it seriously and try to prove it by touching things or licking poles to make a point.

Currently 1 out of every 2859 people in Italy is infected.

Switzerland numbers skyrocketed and 1 out of every 3866 people are infected which is a much higher ratio than Spain who's getting locked down. I see lock down in Swiss's future. 68.000 people travel between Italy and Switzerland everyday for work. It's best Switzerland and everybody else time their lock downs together. Some nations don't want to lock down because it will hurt their economy but nations staggering lock downs may hurt the economy even more in the long run.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_what-do-the-restrictions-in-italy-mean-for-switzerland-/45605968

Guys, this battle against COVID-19 isn't going to be over in a few months. This is phase 1 where we slow down the spread. After that, we need  to get rid of it from every human body since a vaccine is unlikely to be found. This could be a two year process with more hardships to follow. In April 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu showed up. Months later, in September 2009, a vaccine was found. Swine Flu continued to kill in a 2015 outbreak in India so you get the picture it could take years to beat COVID-19. COVID-19 is much deadlier than H1N1 and expect no cure or treatment. I hope our governments have enough money to win this fight. If our governments break down, society breaks down.

[Trenchcoat]

Home burglaries have declined dramatically, too .

That could rapidly change to the opposite it people start to run out of food.

I think a big problem Italy could have ahead of itself (and France, Spain & Germany too) is economic catastrophe at the end of all of this, should we hopefully get to the end of all of this. The state can only support the population & businesses for so long before it goes bust. Even before that every day it is supporting the population & business it is doing more damage to its treasurt. Italy was already in a fairly weak economic state before this crisis hit, I can't see it being in any sort of shape after it. There is a good chance Italy will fall apart.

Thankfully the UK has left the EU so we won't have to put up with their dealings in all of this.

[Boethius]

As I was saying....President Trump mentioned in his press conference that 36,000 people die annually on average in the USA with Flu..yet no-one says anything about that.

50 people die of Corona virus and it's a national emergency.

Of course the Trump hating media can't hold him accountable for the Flu..it's been around for yonks...so they're beating him with a stick over this new virus instead and inducing hysteria among the population..suits their agenda.

Same happening over here is happening with the lefty media bashing Boris Johnson..no matter what he does they'll spin it against him.

Any economic crash will have been created by an agenda-driven media who want to make the news rather than just report on it...and gullible public are falling for it.

As BC noted, influenza has been around a long time, medical professionals know a lot about it, and how to treat it.  That's one of the reasons that every year, they tell people to get a vaccination, particularly those with compromised immune systems.  They also know the peak season for flu.  Health officials can predict mortality rates for influenza, and hospitalization rates, as they're fairly consistent.  By now, for example, health officials know that influenza has peaked for the year.  The death rate for influenza is 0.1%, and that's consistent over years.

Also as BC noted, other than knowing that based on China's experience, the death rate for COVID-19 is around 2.3%, very little is known about COVID-19. That's the difference.

I don't think the media is doing anything more than reporting.  Health officials have suggested staying home, washing hands, shutting down large public gatherings.  It's not the media doing this.

On a separate note, I was at Costco yesterday afternoon, around 2:30.  I wouldn't have bothered going there, but we were out of lettuce, and Costco sells a great lettuce mix that no one else does.  There were no lineups, which is unusual for a Saturday afternoon.  Also, rare for Costco, few product sales, other than flavoured yogurt.  There was absolutely no raw chicken of any kind, and they were down to about 4 packs of pork tenderloin, but I wasn't looking for either chicken or pork.  They also had no toilet paper or paper towels, neither of which I was looking for either (passed by as I got a box of San Pellegrino).  Produce was plentiful.

Our son ran out of hand soap, and both supermarkets were completely out of hand soap, which suggests to me that people don't normally wash their hands. I did manage to find a bottle at the drugstore, which had about 15 bottles left.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[GQBlues]

I am talking about two opportunities where susceptibility is a factor. 

        1.  First is the actual exposure to the virus.  Some people exposed will not become infected because:   a)  their mucous membrane, etc.  stop it, or b)  the transport pathway to susceptible targets within the body, e. g., lungs, is intercepted,  or c)  infection is random and dependent upon the actual number of COVID-19 viral agents inhaled/ingested, or d) more likely something else, or e) a combination of many factors?

Hence, I would hazard a guess that this is principally the reason why the younger folks are asymptomatic, or at worst, suffer only 'mild' symptoms. The air pathways still harness rather robust and/or healthy cilia able to discharge impurities, either bacterial or viral before it overwhelms the lungs. In the case of those who gets the virus, again, guessing that the likelihood the same mechanism is compromised due (likely) from such habit like smoking. Asians and Europeans are still far more notorious with their love affair with cigarettes. The younger set in the US developed a fascination for vaping, thus hopeful the lockdowns would help in this regard.

Either way, it doesn't make the younger ones completely immune to the disease. Void of safe practice, absence of care could be just as dangerous for other people outside of themselves.

BTW - All elective surgeries are being cancelled statewide to conform to SG's recommendation from yesterday's presser. For our SoCal members. maps of locations for testing will soon be up, but if you have the symptoms there are a few places available to call. For example, Sherman Oaks urgent care are testing onsite by appointment only. In some instances, they would even come to your home. UCLA, I believe, are establishing, or have established, satellite locations in various places where you can get tested. Same is true for UC schools. This is to prevent flooding hospitals and emergency clinics.

If you have the symptoms, DO NOT show up at your nearest hospitals or emergency clinics. Call first and have them instruct you what to do, or if these particular facility have a website - read their protocol.

All testing is 'free' whether or not you have insurance. All copays are waived. This is a federal mandate, so don't be fooled.

[BillyB]

I have read articles saying viruses don't always reach the lungs. Probably why we get colds and don't even notice it and other times it'll put us down for a week. While some people got COVID-19 this time, they may not notice it. The next time they catch it, it may hospitalize them. Younger, healthier immune systems are more likely to stop the viruses early before it infects the lungs.

[BC]

Hence, I would hazard a guess

LOL I like that

Not criticizing you at all, just noting the interesting word usage that seems to fit the times.

[BC]

http://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160
 

Gator,

thanks for the link, interesting read.

For the 'aside' as well

[BC]

They also had no toilet paper or paper towels, neither of which I was looking for either (passed by as I got a box of San Pellegrino).

[GQBlues]

That could rapidly change to the opposite it people start to run out of food.

I think a big problem Italy could have ahead of itself (and France, Spain & Germany too) is economic catastrophe at the end of all of this, should we hopefully get to the end of all of this. The state can only support the population & businesses for so long before it goes bust. Even before that every day it is supporting the population & business it is doing more damage to its treasurt. Italy was already in a fairly weak economic state before this crisis hit, I can't see it being in any sort of shape after it. There is a good chance Italy will fall apart.

Thankfully the UK has left the EU so we won't have to put up with their dealings in all of this.

No country is spared of economic repercussion of this problem. Public health takes front and center ahead of economics in this regard. How severe the curve is or will be, will ultimately determine financial impact for each country.

So far, at least at this time, the US's economy was in great shape before getting hit with this. But our 2nd quarter GDP still stands to get some serious spanking with this problem. The only hope is that it doesn't go under the negative territory. Don't believe for a minute the UK will somehow magically rise above this all.

[SANDRO43]

Hope all is well with you, friends and loved ones.

I am doing alright, considering, except that this situation is a royal PITA .

Please do feel free to correct any information in my posts above. As to local conditions up there you are the authority.

Thanks but I'll pass,  I am fed up with these endless debates .

[BillyB]

Hilarious BC, glad you can find some things out there that will put a smile on your face.

3 days ago an Italian nurse's photo and story went viral(no pun intended) all over the world. Do you or Sandro know how she's doing now?

http://www.instagram.com/alessiabonari_/?utm_source=ig_embed

http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/an-italian-coronavirus-nurse-posted-a-picture-of-her-face-bruised-from-wearing-a-mask-to-highlight-how-much-health-workers-are-struggling/ar-BB115QWS?ocid=spartanntp

[BillyB]

http://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

It was a good read and in line with some of the stuff I read about coronavirus behavior in January. The article is 3 weeks old and said mortality rate is 2.3% but the estimates for mortality rate has gone up since then.

One thing I read in the article that stood out was:

There are seven coronaviruses known to infect people. Four of them—229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1—typically cause a cold and only rarely result in death. The other three—MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and the new SARS-CoV-2—have varying degrees of lethality. In the 2003 SARS outbreak, 10 percent of infected people died. Between 2012 and 2019, MERS killed 23 percent of infected people. Although the case fatality rate of COVID-19 is lower, the virus has already killed more people than the other two outbreaks combined, which some have attributed to the pathogen’s fast transmission. 

Although this coronavirus is less lethal, it has killed more people than the last two combined. Go figure. I still think the mortality rates are underestimated for COVID-19. This virus been out a few months while the other two lasted years and this virus already killed more people.

The rest of the World has officially passed China in infections and deaths.

China has 80,849 infections, 3199 deaths and 66,931 recoveries

World minus China has 86,910 infections, 3286 deaths, and 9667 recoveries.

Some politicians such as President Moon of S Korea is taking a lot of heat from citizens for not taking action against China sooner. S Korea's reporting has changed from last week which is suspicious. Some governments may not be giving out too much bad news in fear politicians will lose their jobs. N Korea on the other hand has been doing an excellent job. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has reported zero infections in his nation. I wish we had a leader like him to protect our nation.

[2tallbill]

If anyone would like to see official results here is a link to
the John Hopkins Corona virus resource center
http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

The interactive map
http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[BillyB]

If anyone would like to see official results here is a link to
the John Hopkins Corona virus resource center
http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

The interactive map
http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

John Hopkins is a great source but link below is hours ahead of John Hopkins in reporting. They also give data such as cases per million population, active cases and critical cases. Many Euro nations have much higher case per million that China does. Another sign China was under reporting because they allowed their people to travel and gather in large groups in January during new years celebrations. They put their people at risk knowing this virus was out since December.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Trenchcoat]

I reckon it's probably a hard one to judge of how many cases they actually are and then work out the mortality rate. Many mild cases don't get reported. In the UK at present the advice is unless you have symptoms serious enough to to phone up 111 (unless for sick note reasons) then just self isolate at home for at least 7 days until symptoms go or they get worse and you need hospital treatment.

So really the only solid stats are the deaths & recoveries of patients with severe cases of the virus. It would indeed be heartening to know that not all people that get the Caronavirus are on a near 50/50 mortality/survival rate. A large bulk of cases that are mild would affect the figures enormously. Yet there seems to be little inclination into looking at the constitution of the more milder cases. That information could provide valuable information about the virus. Certainly medical staff are way too busy with the serious cases to worry about the mild cases. On the general public side many with mild symptoms don't wish to be dragged into a lengthy mind numbing stay in hospital. I think if self diagnosis kits were available it would help a lot in understanding the milder cases.

[BillyB]

self diagnosis kits

That is the next step to beating the virus. After the medical community gets enough kits, governments will be making kits for people to take home just like a pregnancy test. It's important to find people with little or no symptoms that are carriers to get them identified so they can be quarantined.

[calmissile]

Well, it looks like the hoarding crazies have infected our small town.  Wifey sent me out for eggs, hydrogen peroxide, mayo and I wanted to replenish my Vitamin C supply.

What a zoo!!  Went to seven stores today and was fortunate to buy the last jar of mayo.  For some reason my UA wife cannot live without it.

None of the 7 stores have any eggs.  None have any hydrogen peroxide.  I am surprised that so many people even know what it is or what it's for.  I did not bother to check for disinfectants or toilet paper but many shelves in the stores are empty.

I did manage to buy a bottle of Vitamin C.  It was only available in gummy format.  Not my first choice, but it will work.  Directions say to chew 3 of them per day.

Looks like the entrepreneurs are busy.  L.A. customs intercepted a large shipment from the UK that is full of fake Corona Virus test kits.  Hope people are prosecuted on both sides of the pond.
 http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/fake-coronavirus-testing-kits-seized-los-angeles-airport-69601035

Don't know how long the egg shortage is going to last but can only find baby chicks for sale.   

[SANDRO43]

None have any hydrogen peroxide.  I am surprised that so many people even know what it is or what it's for.  I did not bother to check for disinfectants or toilet paper but many shelves in the stores are empty.

Look for a disinfectant containing Isopropyl Alcohol, not many know about it :

This particular brand (Novalcol) is also available from Amazon here. There probably are similar others in the States.

[GenMish]

Meanwhile in the USA....Utah police departments have pleaded with criminals to stop their “nefarious” behavior in light of increasing amounts of coronavirus cases in the US

http://www.rt.com/usa/483195-utah-police-crime-coronavirus/

[Gator]

The White House Coronavirus Task Force an hour ago held a press conference with major announcements.  At the top of the list is the program to expand greatly the number of rapid tests for COVID-19 infection.

Two parts: 1) the collection of a sample from an individual and 2) the analysis of the sample in a scientific laboratory.

High-Throughput Labs

The manual CDC testing procedure used since the outbreak will be replaced by high-throughput methods performed at 2,000 existing commercial and government laboratories around the US.   Two analytical kits will be used, one for the Roche procedure and a second for the Thermo-Fischer procedure (the latter was approved by the FDA Friday evening).  A total of 1.9 million test kits will be distributed this week.

The Thermo-Fischer test will report results within four hours.  The company will be producing materials for 5 million "reactions" per week.   

         *Reaction = test of one person
 

Collection of Sample 

The collection of samples will not be performed at acute care centers, thus preventing the possible co-mingling of those COVID-19 infections with individuals seeking  medical care for heart problems, injuries, etc.  Instead, the collection will be done at PODS (point of distribution system) modules by healthcare staff in protective gear.  These will be located in parking lots of retail stores (Walmart, Walgreen, etc) and parking lots of healthcare facilities.   Each module supposedly will be able to screen and take samples from 2,000 - 4,000 individuals per day.  The roll-out is done though the state and local health departments. 

Good news.  And yes, because of greatly increased numbers of testing, the US will see a huge spike in number of infections.

Forgot - the USPHS (?) will releasing a website with a screening questionnaire and directions for how, when and where to be tested. 

[BillyB]

A few days ago Merkel estimated 70% of Germans will get infected. A former German government disease control advisor estimated up to 40,000 German's can die based on the cases in China. That's a pretty steep death toll considering China has only 3200 deaths.

Today's news said UK figures COVID-19 will last until Spring 2021 and 7.9 million UK citizens will be hospitalized. It's figured 80% of Britons will be infected over that time. Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia said "I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” . A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

Trump administration is trying to lure other countries labs to America. It's a good time to be a lab. Everybody wants to throw money at them.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/germany-tries-to-stop-us-poaching-german-firm-seeking-coronavirus-vaccine/ar-BB11dfdv?ocid=spartanntp

Look for a disinfectant containing Isopropyl Alcohol, not many know about it :

Some people are buying hydrogen peroxide, not for a disinfectant, but to drink. Some people think its good to beat cancer and aids. People are searching for their own cures and there's a lot of talk about hydrogen peroxide but I'm not buying it.