Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?

[krimster2]

a person with influenza spreads to 1.3-1.4 other people (R0=1.3-1.4). After 10 rounds of infection, 14 people are infected.

R0=3 for coronavirus. After 10 rounds of each COVID19 patient spreading to 3 people, 59,000(!!) people are infected.

this is why they pay me the big bucks and not you guys...
I'll also get a bailout, thank you very much taxpayers

[ML]

Calculating exponential growth.

http://sciencing.com/calculate-exponential-growth-8143625.html

[tfcrew]

Iran leader refuses US help; cites coronavirus conspiracy theory
 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei alleges virus 'is specifically built for Iran using the genetic data of Iranians'.

Iran's supreme leader refused American assistance to fight the new coronavirus citing a conspiracy theory claiming it could be man-made by the United States government.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's comments came on Sunday as Iran faces crushing US sanctions blocking the country from selling its crude oil and accessing international financial markets.
"I do not know how real this accusation is but when it exists, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medication?" Khamenei said. "Possibly your medicine is a way to spread the virus more."
He also alleged the virus "is specifically built for Iran using the genetic data of Iranians, which they have obtained through different means".
"You might send people as doctors and therapists, maybe they would want to come here and see the effect of the poison they have produced in person," Khamenei said.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/iran-leader-refuses-cites-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-200322145122752.html
I wouldn't make any further offers.

[BillyB]

What I am disagreeing with is, if this is what should apply to everyone, then I can't help but wonder how NBA players, even those who tells you openly they aren't suffering any symptoms, are able to get tested? Granted they have their own medical teams, and have the resource to acquire appropriate testing, but then you're getting into the whole 'class' warfare classification again.

Certain groups of people should get favoritism over others because they affect more people than the average Joe sitting at home. Sports stars are in contact with lots of people and their industry can magnify the problem. I'm glad Sports organizations shut down their seasons based right after the first NBA player tested positive. They saved lives. If that player wasn't tested, we'd have tens of thousands of reporters, fans, and half the NBA infected by now.

Of course you do.

I don't ignore leaky faucets at home and I don't ignore anybody here. Some people are free to practice ignoring others. I prefer to remind rude people of their failures which would stop or slow down the leak. We had positive results in slowing down the leak this week.

Anyone testing negative, can actually be positive one day, one hour, one minute later.

Knowing this, there are some people out there that will ask for a free test every other day. They think they are that important and it's their right. I'm sure each test costs over $100 easy but they aren't paying for it. The medical community, not Trump, wisely applied rules and restrictions to who gets tested.

[GQBlues]

Certain groups of people should get favoritism over others because they affect more people than the average Joe sitting at home. Sports stars are in contact with lots of people and their industry can magnify the problem. I'm glad Sports organizations shut down their seasons based right after the first NBA player tested positive. They saved lives. If that player wasn't tested, we'd have tens of thousands of reporters, fans, and half the NBA infected by now.

You just agreed with me and proved my point without even knowing it. If we are only testing people with symptoms, then the rate of infection will not stop exactly because of the statement you just made.

The part I disagree with is the class 'exception'. R0 does not discriminate whether you're an athlete or an average Joe. Transmission rate is the same. Italy is a screaming example of this point.

I don't ignore leaky faucets at home and I don't ignore anybody here. Some people are free to practice ignoring others. I prefer to remind rude people of their failures which would stop or slow down the leak. We had positive results in slowing down the leak this week.

Okay...There's a huge difference between 'not having' power from 'not exercising' it.

[krimster2]

South Korea stopped their COVID outbreak. Trump has exploded ours.

Obama and Biden handled H1N1 and Ebola like champs. Biden destroys Trump by comparison.

1) Stopped Ebola IN Africa from becoming a pandemic.
2) Set up a pandemic response office Trump closed, disastrously.
3) Declared H1N1 a Public Health emergency in two weeks.
4) Had H1N1 test kits ready in two weeks.
5) Developed an H1N1 vaccine in five months over GOP opposition.
6) Vaccine stopped the H1N1 pandemic.
7) Kept a CDC office IN CHINA to deal with emerging virus threats, Trump closed it.

If Biden were POTUS we would not have allowed COVID to run wild for 8 weeks while golfing.

We might have done what South Korea did and Trump failed to do: shut it down.

but, Hillary's emails and wiki-leaks and millions of brainless dumb phuques meant Trumpty Dumpty got a chance to build his wall
but instead of doing that, he has had a very great BIG fall...
scrambled egg anyone?
or is that a "nasty" breakfast?

non Trump cult members are worried cult members will once more put Trumpty Dumpty back on the wall this November
but frankly, I now hope you dumb phuques all vote for him again
because that much kool-aid will finally put a complet end to your cult
last time I checked, weren't too many members of jonestown left
and in a couple of years from now there will be FAR less trump cult members out there as well
cuz it don't matter if you want to or not want to drink the corona flavored kool-aid
ALL Trump voters are gonna drink it
I guarantee it

[Gator]

Once again, I DO understand and have watched a 'federal' Europe react at different speeds / differing policy ..these are now excuses as the virus isn't respecting frontiers

Thank God, the USA is not the EU. 

[Gator]

did you know that 1/4 of common colds are from another kind of caronavirus...
so your recent cold may have been one of those!
a cousin of covid-19

And your point?  Other coronas save a couple  have minuscule  mortality.  That is why COVID-19 is referred to as "novel."

[Gator]

South Korea stopped their COVID outbreak. Trump has exploded ours.

If I were in a fight, you would be the last person I would want beside me. 

[krimster2]

"If I were in a fight, you would be the last person I would want beside me."


you're right, cuz you would already be dead....
I know the difference between someone who IS a fighter, and someone who is just "fodder"
I am a natural predator...
when law and order breaks down, I will be free to hunt all I want, absolutely risk free...
people like you...
and this is the only reason I want to keep myself alive now
is to live long enough to be in this period
the period of time, Charles Manson called "Helter Skelter"
cuz baby it's coming, just like he said it would...
you pay attention to your prophets
and I shall heed mine

"Let all the poison that lurks in the mud, hatch out.”

I, Claudius

this is ITS season now...

[BC]

When BC criticized Trump's communication skills, I wrote:

I understand your point, yet are you missing a more important point:  namely, all those professionals standing behind Trump during his press conferences. They are the ones executing the team effort, with Trump resolving conflicts.     IMO the team seems especially solid.   

Trump gives us an overall perspective.  You and BC abhor the man, so you automatically reject what he says.  Meanwhile, you may be overlooking the many, enormous wheels of the Federal government now rolling in a super crisis mode:
 
     -  Health (FDA, CDC, NIH, USPHS and others), 
     -  logistics (FEMA),
     -  economic (Treasury, Fed),
     -  homeland security,
     -  legislative,
     -  blah blah. 

Its complicated, and I do not pretend to grasp all, or even most. 

Gator,

The director of the orchestra sets the tempo.  He may not even know how to play but one or two instruments, the rest he has to leave up to the musicians.  It is a team effort and that team has to send ONE very clear and coordinated message and not contradict his chosen experts.  There is a crisis playbook that is not being followed.  I do give him credit for not hogging the stage and letting others in his team take over more nowadays.

There is a whole government apparatus in place for all this.. Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness and Advancing Innovation Act

[krimster2]

"And your point?  Other coronas save a couple  have minuscule  mortality.  That is why COVID-19 is referred to as "novel.""


my point is, this corona virus ain't gonna disappear any more than the common cold is gonna disappear
they are BOTH here permanently....
and both have the same level of immunity
you may have already had a dozen corona virus cold infections in your lifetime
despite that, next one comes along, you might get it anyway, because your immunity to Corona lasts maybe 3 years
so once covid-19 takes hold here and is capable of repeatedly reinfecting, how many times do you think the average person can survive getting it before they die
assuming they get it at the same frequency as a common cold over a long period of time

[msmob]

Thank God, the USA is not the EU.

Indeed, but our reasoning is different !


Anyway some toilet humour to shame the toilet roll hoarders ..

http://thepooptool.com/

and how SC might be dressing to shop, soon ?

http://www.facebook.com/shoooric/videos/2910793055643973/?hc_location=ufi

[Boethius]

Boe, Moobs mother can't recall any injustice on my part towards her so I don't know why you should

I posted that I find your need to score on the back of his wife and mother with Alzheimer's reprehensible. I continue to so believe.

Now I'm batting for SC here, our Moobs is acting anything less than a man and we're trying to make him shape up. The fact that apparently she did not want to live with Mobe & her MIL is not a good sign for him. We're trying to help save our Moobs relationship

How much dealing do you have in taking care of someone with Alzheimer's?  It's stressful and time consuming.  Alzheimer's patients are usually difficult, and introducing someone new to a home could be a disaster to the patient.  We don't know if SC didn't want to go to the UK, or if they, as a couple, decided it would be better for SC to return to Russia.

Were I in lockdown with one of my parents, and that parent had Alzheimer's, I'd suggest the better half not come either, and we've been married more than 3 decades, have raised children together, spend the bulk of our days together, have gone through life altering events, blah, blah, blah.

It's perhaps best if you actually have a relationship before deciding to "help" others with theirs.

you're right, cuz you would already be dead....

OK, I may have cabin fever, but that made me laugh.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[krimster2]

I had a tough choice like that to make....

decided to go into the bunker. with my family..
and we all know how going into the bunker works out in the end
don't we...

this is not really quite how I imagined the end of the world to be
it's a lot dumber than I thought...

my wife has decided to retreat into her own inner world
while both my children are deviously planning on infecting my wife and I
but...
I just re-wrote my last will and testament and will have it notarized today....
surprise kids!!!!
haha
killing us will have the OPPOSITE effect, you will be poor now
hahaha
unless I survive, and rewrite the will
awwww shucks.....

[Gator]

R0=3 for coronavirus. After 10 rounds of each COVID19 patient spreading to 3 people, 59,000(!!) people are infected.

Even the experts are not reporting their calculations, and here you are simplifying it on the back of an envelope.  And believing it.   Stop it please!  We already have a high state of confused anxiety.

Here is why I ask you to stop it. 

R₀ is a function of susceptibility, exposure and other variables.  The calculation of the population eventually infected typically uses differential equations with multiple variables.  Typical assumptions include  homogeneous mixing, closed population, and no intervention during the outbreak (social distancing certainly would affect your calculations, yes?).

ML gave you some notes on exponential growth.

If interested, here is a mathematical toolbox of equations for estimating infections.     

 http://bmcmedinformdecismak.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1472-6947-12-147

Have fun!  Maybe ML will show them to his wife. 

[BC]

There are tentative indications that we may have reached the peak for infections here in Italy.  Despite this, the restriction of movement has been increased.  Everyone must stay in the town they currently are in except for extremely urgent matters.  Most secondary roads are blocked with strict controls on primary roads.

[Gator]

my point is, this corona virus ain't gonna disappear any more than the common cold is gonna disappear

I accept that, and it is a good point.

[krimster2]

I know you're scared Gator....
if you were standing next to me, I'd be able to smell the fear...

if my words cause you a headache
then the opiate of the masses is always there
or feel free to choose another kind of analgesia
to deal with the pain

[BillyB]

The part I disagree with is the class 'exception'. R0 does not discriminate whether you're an athlete or an average Joe. Transmission rate is the same. Italy is a screaming example of this point.

The medical community evaluated their supplies and the situation and if they determine a person who is a public figure or does a job that exposes them to the public needs the test before the average Joe sitting at home, I'm all for it. Regardless if people think it's unfair a rich and famous guy gets tested first, the medical community is making decisions that saves the most lives.

There is a crisis playbook that is not being followed. 

There isn't a playbook for what we are dealing with. The playbook wasn't designed for this kind of virus. Following the rules got us into some trouble. When Obama dealt with the Swine Flu, the rulebook designated CDC to be the sole entity for creating test kits. So we followed the rules and the CDC's supplier screwed up. Trump changed the rules to allow States to hire all private labs to create test kits. We also listened to WHO's advice. After China reported the virus to WHO but didn't let WHO into their country to evaluate the scope and size of the epidemic and study the virus's behavior, WHO trusted China and recommended traveling to and from China is safe. Eventually Trump realized after our first coronavirus case showed up in America Jan 23 that the advice from "experts" was bad advice and did exactly opposite of WHO's recommendation.

[GenMish]

Lots of fear here today. I for one am not ready for check out time

SARS and MERS are still out there too, so why aren't they nailing people left and right? There is stuff we don't understand about viruses. Why can a virus at one point in time convince your cells to replicate it, and other times it cant? For those of us that travel a lot, lived overseas, our bodies developed immune systems that take this stuff on. It is amazing I am not dead yet with all the garbage I have been exposed to. I think the economic and social fallout from this will kill more people than the virus.

[Boethius]

SARS and MERS are still out there too, so why aren't they nailing people left and right?

Contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine broke the chain of transmission.  I think that's why the strategies being implemented now are important.  But SARS could resurge, as horseshoe bats, indigenous to China, are a source of transmission.


This post was composed without the aid of google.

[LAman]

Anyone testing negative, can actually be positive one day, one hour, one minute later.

Actually, there should be three tests done to be sure, hopefully testing in different areas. There is a chance of a false positive or false negative.

[2tallbill]

I posted that I find your need to score on the back of his wife and mother with Alzheimer's reprehensible. I continue to so believe.

I totally agree. Trench you can find a hundred things to disagree with Moby
based on his arguments and/or facts. There is no need to get either of the
Mrs Moby's involved. If one or both of them join the forum and join in the
debate then you should by all means engage them, but they didn't so they
should be left alone.

Udachi!

Bill

[2tallbill]

Gator,

The director of the orchestra sets the tempo.

So let me guess, you think that Trump is bad?