UK General Election 4th July 2024!

[Trenchcoat]

Well in a shock announcement today the PM Rishi Sunak announced that there will be a General Election on the 4th July 2024, just over a month from now:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69042935

Most expected the General Election later in the year, possibly around the same time as the US Presidential and Congress Elections. It looks almost certain that Labour will get in with the Tories trailing so badly in the polls unless Sunak can pull something out of the hat. Some suspect that Sunak called a General Election to avoid his own party removing him from power in a vote of no confidence in his leadership. For some reason he decided to make the announcement without the use of an umbrella

Kier Starmer apparently supports Ukraine so hopefully nothing should change there for the worse at least.

[Trenchcoat]

Not sure why this thread isn't gaining any traction, y'all know the UK Election is far more important than the US

Well Farage has just announced his intention to stand after days of saying he won't he has made a sudden about turn:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69082668

He becomes leader of Reform going into the General Election. With Farage at the helm Reform stand the potential to do much better. Reform could now potentially gain momentum over the Tories and take many of their votes.

Sunak has been pushing National Service for the Tories which he has launched as an idea at the start of his Election campaign. It doesn't seem that popular and apart from a few taken with the idea could likely lose more votes over it. Across Europe countries have been moving to bring in National Service/Conscription measures most notably Germany. No doubt a response to this threat from Russia but whether there is any real chance of war remains unclear. If Ukraine can carry on another 6 - 9 months or so then Putler starts to run out of Armaments & Money and the threat from Russia most likely recedes unless they go completely mad with WMD.

So it will in any case be interesting to see how much better Reform may do in the Election. At the moment they are in third place, whether they can replace the Tories in second place is one thing. It's going to be a long haul up to get anywhere near Labour in first place but Labour is not universally popular and neither is it's leader. A lot may depend on the first past the post voting system and that is likely to favour Labour a lot with the Tories and Reform splitting their share of similar minded voters.

[2tallbill]

So it will in any case be interesting to see how much better Reform may do in the Election. At the
moment they are in third place, whether they can replace the Tories in second place is one thing.

The Reform party needs to get into first place or they will forever be the Tories homely little brother.

[ML]

July 4th was chosen to vote on independence from USA ?

We in USA can only hope . . .

[Trenchcoat]

The Reform party needs to get into first place or they will forever be the Tories homely little brother.

They definitely need to get ahead of the Tories by quite some way, otherwise it could amount to more Labour seat gains not less. Farage really needs to try and win over Labour voters, that's something Richard Tice the now former Remain leader failed to do. Tice kept going after the Tory vote but there are only so many votes to be won there, not enough votes. Farage needs to try to bring over Labour voters as he'll get more Tory voters anyway now that he is standing. If he can get many Labour voters onboard then it avoids Labour having many easy wins by coming through the middle of the Tories and Reform battling it out. So Farage will have to set out to Labour voters very clearly what he can do for them.

[Trenchcoat]

A rough idea of how yesterday's announcement by Farage might work out in some but not all constituency's if Reform pick up many more votes as a result as expected. Different constituency's have of course different voter outlook but many might have something like this:

Before Farage too over as leader of Reform, final Election night result:

Constituency A:

1). Tory Candidate                        17,000
2). Labour Candidate.                  11,500
3) Liberal Democrat Candidate.     5,650
4) Reform Candidate.                      3,700
Etc....

After Farage took over, final Election night result:

Constituency A:

1). Labour Candidate.                  11,500
2). Tory Candidate.                       10,500
3). Reform Candidate.                    9,500
4). Liberal Democrat Candidate.   5,650


So Labour coming through and winning in more seats like this even though they themselves haven't gained any more popular share of the vote they have gained a seat as a result of the Tory vote being split more with reform. Of course if Farage were to gain massive momentum and take votes from Labour the result could look like:

Constituency A:

1). Reform Candidate.                     13,200
2). Labour Candidate.                      10,700
3). Tory Candidate.                             9,500
4). Liberal Democrat Candidate.      5,650


So Reform can potentially win through in some seats, if they can pick up enough votes, but it's still a very big climb for them even with Farage to do that well. Odds are the Labour Party will win through the middle without particularly picking up many more votes similar to the scenario here.

[2tallbill]

Farage needs to try to bring over Labour voters as he'll get more Tory voters anyway now that he is standing. If he can get many Labour voters onboard then it avoids Labour having many easy wins by coming through the middle of the Tories and Reform battling it out. So Farage will have to set out to Labour voters very clearly what he can do for them.

I think what you're asking is a little oxymoronic. Reform by definition won't win over leftist big government types.
Labor in the middle? You have so many Nutjob left parties, that labor is in the middle? Or is this just your typical
reading of information and twisting it up in your head?

If Labor is truly the middle then the UK is doomed.

[Trenchcoat]

I think what you're asking is a little oxymoronic. Reform by definition won't win over leftist big government types.
Labour in the middle? You have so many Nutjob left parties, that labor is in the middle? Or is this just your typical
reading of information and twisting it up in your head?

If Labour is truly the middle then the UK is doomed.

There corrected that for ya

George Galloway is probably the foremost known left politician and leads the Workers Party of Britain. They have no seats at present in Parliament and never have. They are a recently formed party and did well in the recent council elections getting several Councillors elected in Muslim areas. They often court the Muslim vote to do this. However, they pale in comparison to Councillors the Labour Party have which are in their hundreds probably well over a thousand. George Galloway of course used to have a slot on RT (Russia Today) and a long running and well known political career, once a Labour MP but ended up in opposition to Blair over Iraq war, etc he once met Saddam Hussain. He is generally a Public Speaker type of politician.

There are other leftist parties but they are so small fry it's hardly worth a mention and not many people in the UK are familiar about them, there is the SDP (Social Democratic Party) that is still going and dates back to the 80s but few know it is still going lol. There is the long running but little heard about Communist Party of GB. Etc...

Simd people may consider the long running Green Party a left wing party, it has a fair number of Councillors and I think one of two MPs. They usually do well in Brighton where there is a big Gay community. I have never been to Brighton for that very reason.


However... It would be wrong to assume all Labour Party voters are into big government. Sure the Labour Party often seems to want to extend its control in numerous ways, State industries is not such a thing these days but Labour are probably for taking control of peoples lives more potentially through bureaucracy possibly. A lot of Labour voters apart from the ones wanting more handouts may have concerns over unemployment, wages levels, job security definitely I would say, housing again definitely, NHS - health & dental care again a big point, cost of bringing up children & cost of living, also general comfort and how the area looks and is in which they live.

Labour so far have just said they will sort out some of these areas, job security talk remains non existent. They have given no specifics on anything and just harp on about injustices and how things could be better but without saying much in how they would go about it in much detail if any. Starmer is wishy washy, it's surprising he used to be a top barrister, etc. He's not that impressive a leader and keeps seemingly changing his mind and most don't really know what he is for. He has tried costing up the the EU before so it seems that he will try to make moves back to the EU in some form. Even the EU don't seem to be in agreement though on what they can/are offering each other. So we shall see...

Farage by contrast is a good public speaker and a firm presence, known for his straight talking and honest approach. He hasn't to date had any scandal or lie ever exposed. He is wealthy now and I don't think he is there for the money, fame or status. He has in any case a fair amount of that already. He has always said he is not some who is a natural politician and I think that's a fair comment. I think in general he is a decent guy who wants to do right by society and see it in a good place as things aren't that great for many people in the UK, illegal immigration of course is a problem. Personally I think Farage has the most leadership ability out of the other party leaders. Then probably followed by George Galloway but he doesn't get a lot of press. Farage does well on having a good grasp of the issues and being willing to tackle them that few of the other party leaders seem to have.

Reform itself is the previous Brexit Party hastily formed just before the last General Election. It can poll reasonably well for a small party but it lacks the political base the Tories & Labour have. The Tories have (or did have) big party donars, big business, Labour have the Trade Unions, etc both have built up a party base over many decades and many loyal voters. So it's going to be an uphill battle for Reform but Farage is a capable leader and almost celebrity like status to drive them on. He has his work cut out but could do well.

The previous UKIP party he headed up are almost extinct now and won't poll many votes and ring get any seats in this General Election. However back around the time of the European Elections around 2014 UKIP did very well by winning votes from both the Tories and Labour. Before the last General Election though UKIP ousted Farage as a part of its many infights. Basically others want the top job, disagreements, etc. A shame as they were on the cusp of winning over some Trade Union support and could have been big. They have now dwindled into almost nothing, an almost now solely right wing identifying party with (I think) a good take on what Britain needs but too little support or interest to do it. UKIP have always had a problem with infighting and lack of discipline (Google, Mike Hookem) and other incidents of fall outs, candidates & councillors putting their foot in it, etc. UKIP have quite an interesting party history to read upon.

So UKIP could have been big but blew it big time. Farage & Tice seem to have learned from the problems of UKIP with Reform. Reform is apparently owned by them, apparently 66 percent by Farage, 33 percent by Tice. Hence in theory Farage can assume leadership at any time, as he did the other day without process and stay there for as long as he likes. It may not be exactly Democratic or representational but it does avoid the chaos and infighting of UKIP and others trying to replace you once you get them (the party) so far.

Is that good or is that bad? I think having the party quite so owned isn't an asset to them as far as the electorate is concerned. They are likely to be out off possibly worse or about as bad as when Labour seemed in the pockets if the Trade Unions more than it's membership or voters. Remain has a party Membership but they don't seem to have a lot of sway over anything and some might question whether they are really members as such. I don't think it's the biggest deal about Membership but while members are communicated to in the long run if Reform doesn't offer a small amount of input it could make Reform look like a one/two man concern with just Tice & Farage asking voters to give them power to run the country with almost sole control. So possibly even Reform needs to be Reformed. In any case they will need to bring over Labour voters to really stand a chance of hitting the big time.

[Trenchcoat]

In general I would say the Labour Party are almost certain to win this Election with the big lead they have. If Farage gets the Reform party into second place it will be a historic first that another party has pushed the Tories into third place in Parliament. It's possible and he is closing in on them in the polls. Most recent poll Tories 19 percent, Reform 17 percent. Reform's highest polling so far. Not even milkshakes will stop Farage

[Trenchcoat]

Well recent polling has put the parties on roughly the same as last post. Some suggest Reform maybe well over 20 percent now, at least several percentage points ahead of the Tories. However the first past the post system that the UK uses for General Elections rather than proportional representation is likely to skew the situation a lot in relation to seats gained.

As such Reform who are probably likely to come second to Labour for the popular vote are likely to get less seats that either the Tories or Liberal Democrats with less share of the popular vote.

So will the Tories still be the second largest party in the UK Parliament?

Possibly or possibly not. It looks possible that rather than Reform becoming the second largest party in the UK possibly the Liberal Democrats may become the second largest Party in the UK Parliament. That hasn't happened since WWI so it's going to be quite an upheaval if that goes down. That won't likely be due to the Lib Dems doing well in terms of popular vote either, that's stayed fairly consistent and fairly low around 14 percent. It just so happens that they appeal is spread less widely and concentrates only in certain areas of the UK.

So potentially some interesting results to come in on July 4th.

One thing for sure, I bet Rishi Sunak is kicking himself for giving away a good 6 months in Government that he didn't have to and doesn't look like helped him at all in boosting the Tories popular vote in this Election.

[Trenchcoat]

Well the UK General Election is done now, as expected Labour got in by a long way. We'll have to see how they react in the coming days. They inherit a country that now has 100 percent debt to GDP, Bank of England base line interest rate at 5.25 percent, inflation now fairly low and an immigration, health & housing crises.

It will interesting to see what they will do about the illegal immigration problem. The Rwanda scheme has never been used but it is there, Labour have said they are going to scrap if so we will see if they do. Otherwise the question remains of what they are going to do with the problem? They have said previously they may give amnesty to illegal immigrants, but where to put them? They are coming in daily, the hotel bills are costing a fortune and will only rise unless the illegal immigration situation is successfully dealt with. Giving amnesty might encourage even more to come. Housing is stretched to maximum as it is at the moment. The government could easily go bankrupt if it takes on more costs of housing illegal immigrants OR taxes may rise steeply to pay for it making for painfully punishing taxes in many and deep unpopularity.

Rishi Sunak meanwhile has finally resigned as Tory leader of a now far smaller Parliamentary party of 121 MPs to Labour's 412 MPs. Labour now have a strong Majority to push through whatever they wish too. I am concerned that they may end up wrecking the economy by spending out loads accommodating illegal immigrants and also shackling us back up the EU in some form in a bad deal. I think by the time the next General Election comes around in 5 years time they may be appallingly unpopular.Sunak is probably now wishing he hadn't called the General Election as otherwise he could have gotten another 6 months in rather than being in the position he is in now.

Of the other parties, the Lib Dems got 71 seats on just over 11 percent of the vote while Reform got 5 MPs in on just over 14 percent of the vote. The popular vote share for Reform less than hoped for but the disparity in Representation of First Past the Post electoral system starkly clear here. A very unfair disparity indeed.

The Greens got 4 seats on nearly 7 percent of the popular vote.

Most notably Nigel Farage the leader of Reform finally won a Parliamentary seat in Clacton on his eight attempt at becoming an MP. Reform polled well in many constituencies often coming a bit too far off second which they hope to build upon at the next Election. Quizzed on the issue of LGB, etc Nigel came up with this phrase which I rather quite like:

http://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1809469440821547063?t=cNMGymAcavCMV9wPctGpXg&s=19

In an age where people seem into getting into different camps and voicing support for their factions concerns & issues I think it's a good point that none of it need be necessary and only usually heightens division & animosity.

[krimster2]

Krimster's position on British Immigration

it depends on where dese here immigrants come from
the further the distance, the bigger the difference in culture
the bigger the difference in culture, the less assimilated they'll become

i'd make some kinda compatibility index
muslims would be at the bottom
europeans, americans, canadians, other anglos at the top
everybody else in the middle

I'd make immigration a Privilige, and not a Right
a Privilige is earned, a right isn't
put a barrier to entry, and reward the people who can jump over it, they're the ones ya want, and not those who trip and fall on the ground

Thank you, for listening
and ifn you Anglo-Saxons has any more problems then let me know

wunnit weird ya'll voting on July 4, and on de other side of the Anglo Sea we're gonna vote on Guy Fawks Day?
there's only a 1/365.25 chance of that happening
numerologists are all freakin out

what? ME WORRY?