Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?

[GQBlues]

Oh boy you are an idiot!! and so am I, I discussed the very same thing yesterday...I have an obscene amount of cash in a safety box, (What if I died and family couldn't access it)  I also have a big back yard and the ground is moist with rain so digging is easy.    In addition I'm over the insured amount in my checking account so that is also under consideration. 

Fathertime!

LMAO! It was a metaphor. Who buries their money in backyards these days except you?

BTW, I got one of those finger gloves in my car so I can always have one with me every time I need to press buttons when using debit card. Extra layer of protection baby!

Beautiful snowcapped mountains on the LA horizon this morning...

[Faux Pas]

Not for the most part. There are a few that went sideways. Chrysler for one. Solyndra, another. One of the silliest thing that happened was the bonus retirement package Ron Gettlefinger, the Union leader that accompanied GM/Chrysler in Congress, received immediately after the bailout.

The screw jobs were not from the federal, but rather down the drain in the State governments. Those shovel-ready, under A.R.R.A., is where most of the robberies took place.

Bank bailouts, unfortunately, were extremely important and necessary.

I don't recall the numbers and am to busy to look them up but I remember it did nothing to stimulate the economy or save it for that matter. Capitalism was ready to step in and pick through the bones of those "should have been defunct" companies. I said it then and now, banks and auto companies should be allowed to fail. Cash for clunkers was a joke but the cash for clunker companies wasn't

[Faux Pas]

LMAO! It was a metaphor. Who buries their money in backyards these days except you?

BTW, I got one of those finger gloves in my car so I can always have one with me every time I need to press buttons when using debit card. Extra layer of protection baby!

Beautiful snowcapped mountains on the LA horizon this morning...

I was going to mention to you two cash hoarders that when your bank card doesn't work, likely the cash won't have any worth either. I had the same thought a few days ago

[GQBlues]

I don't recall the numbers and am to busy to look them up but I remember it did nothing to stimulate the economy or save it for that matter. Capitalism was ready to step in and pick through the bones of those "should have been defunct" companies. I said it then and now, banks and auto companies should be allowed to fail. Cash for clunkers was a joke but the cash for clunker companies wasn't

I'm with you there, bruddah! My sentiment then hasn't waned. Remember the savings and loans debacle in the 90s? We were all better for it being gone...

One of the other sillier things was the order Obama exercised by sending hundreds of millions to companies to make available those silly converters - analog signals to digital - for 'households' who can't afford HD TVs. LMAO! Robin Hood couldn't have thought of a better way to funnel money from one to another. I'm not aware of too many households on poverty level that didn't have HD TVs. That's what EBT cards were for other than booze, cigarettes and bail money. They even have BMWs with nice shiny rims parked on the driveways...

BTW, what ever happened to the underwear terrorist that prompted billions of sales for those x-ray airport scanner?

[GenMish]

Well Gentlemen, I have my list of stocks that I will sell puts on. Probably 20 min before the close. When market volatility is this high, its best to write the put option. The VIX is near 80. Read up on this strategy if you are unfamiliar with it.
The average with the stocks I am writing against, is a 20% return from the premiums if the market rebounds from here, that's 20% return in 3 months.
  If the market continues to drop, I get the stocks on an average 10% below todays market value and they become long term holds. Each one I feel OK with holding

 

[HoundDaddyLee]

LMAO! It was a metaphor. Who buries their money in backyards these days except you?

BTW, I got one of those finger gloves in my car so I can always have one with me every time I need to press buttons when using debit card. Extra layer of protection baby!

Beautiful snowcapped mountains on the LA horizon this morning...

GBQ,
Would you mind snapping a photo of the mountains and posting? I grew up in So Cal and miss the mountain views.


Thanks,
HDL

[jone]

Well Gentlemen, I have my list of stocks that I will sell puts on. Probably 20 min before the close. When market volatility is this high, its best to write the put option. The VIX is near 80. Read up on this strategy if you are unfamiliar with it.
The average with the stocks I am writing against, is a 20% return from the premiums if the market rebounds from here, that's 20% return in 3 months.
  If the market continues to drop, I get the stocks on an average 10% below todays market value and they become long term holds. Each one I feel OK with holding

Damn.  Exactly what I was thinking.

In the State of California we have 1014 confirmed cases of Corona Virus.   In California we have 40,000,000 people.   If your name is not Krimster, you are already seeing a plateauing of cases.   While I don't think we've seen the worst of things yet, we are on overkill for the number of hospital beds and testing kits. 

While the press seems to still be in panic mode, there is not a lot to report right now.   Look at today's headlines.   Most of it is regurgitation from the past week.  What does that mean?    In my mind it means that there is no massive outbreak in the US.   And every day we get through without that massive outbreak brings us one day closer to normalacy. 

If, after another week, we are pretty much status quo then people will be jumping back in the market.   But by that time, so will everyone else.

[Gator]

The closure of flights from China obviously did not work, the virus is there and all over the place. 

What would explain the lag between Italy and the US other than Trump's travel ban? 

The COVID-19 outbreak commenced in both Italy and the United States at the same approximate calendar time.    I assert because of Trump's subsequent travel ban, Italy broke out of its linear growth into an accelerating phase about two weeks sooner than it happened in the US. 

I admit because of under-testing in the US, the "number of total cases" is not comparable after March 1.   Thus, let's instead examine my assertion by comparing number of deaths (deaths are more likely to be classified correctly as discussed earlier). 

COVOID-19 deaths in the US total 108 as of today, and the number is surging.   In contrast, the number of deaths in Italy climbed to 2,503 today, and the number is surging.   

The data for deaths needs to be adjusted to take in account the 5.5x difference in population between the two countries.  All else being equal the US equivalent to 2,503 deaths is 13,800!!!!!! 

The number of deaths in the US totals 108 as of today.    That is the equivalent of 20 deaths in Italy.  Italy reported a total of 21 deaths on February 28, suggesting the "death curve" in the US is almost three weeks behind Italy. 

[GQBlues]

Well Gentlemen, I have my list of stocks that I will sell puts on. Probably 20 min before the close. When market volatility is this high, its best to write the put option. The VIX is near 80. Read up on this strategy if you are unfamiliar with it.
The average with the stocks I am writing against, is a 20% return from the premiums if the market rebounds from here, that's 20% return in 3 months.
  If the market continues to drop, I get the stocks on an average 10% below todays market value and they become long term holds. Each one I feel OK with holding

I'm personally holding. Sounds crazy but it's too darn late for me as it'll be crazier now if I dump. My wife tells me not to look anymore because its driving her crazier hearing me b!tch about it all the time, LMAO.

Have you been , or remember the Poppies in Lancaster? We were thinking of going there until this storm hit...hopefully it didn't affect it too much.

GBQ,
Would you mind snapping a photo of the mountains and posting? I grew up in So Cal and miss the mountain views.


Thanks,
HDL

By happy to oblige. There's a 40% forecast of more 'rain' (snow in higher elev) today and tomorrow, which should break by Friday. Friday I drive down south and will take the time to get a couple of pics. I'll see what I can do today when I get out.

Does anyone even know, or care, they had a 5.7 earthquake in Utah, too? Apparently knocked down their Coronavirus hotline.

[GQBlues]

...I admit because of under-testing in the US, the "number of total cases" is not comparable after March 1.   Thus, let's instead examine my assertion by comparing number of deaths (deaths are more likely to be classified correctly as discussed earlier). 

COVOID-19 deaths in the US total 108 as of today, and the number is surging.   In contrast, the number of deaths in Italy climbed to 2,503 today, and the number is surging...

I made the same point with BC last week. He isn't buying it. Methinks had it been Obama and not Trump, he'd had no problem agreeing...the argument is, Italy is full of old people. Heck, knowing this, shouldn't Italy closed their borders ahead of Trump, then?

New deaths today: Italy 475, US 8. Critical/Serious cases: Italy 2,257; US 12

So I just let this pass.

[HoundDaddyLee]

Here is a link to a PowerBI Dashboard with a COVID-19 Data Analysis:

http://techcommunity.microsoft.com/t5/healthcare-and-life-sciences/track-the-covid-19-growth-curve-in-power-bi/ba-p/1234137

Here is another:
http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


HDL

[HoundDaddyLee]

By happy to oblige. There's a 40% forecast of more 'rain' (snow in higher elev) today and tomorrow, which should break by Friday. Friday I drive down south and will take the time to get a couple of pics. I'll see what I can do today when I get out.

Gracias amigo!


HDL

[krimster2]

this is the infection summary for covid in the USA for the last 9 days

for the table I = total infected
N = new in last 24 hours

3-8-20               I      N
3-8-20               475  40
3-8-20               538    103    
3-9-20              624   83
3-10-20            975   271
3-11-20            1308   314
3-12-20            1716   415
3-13-20            2282   585
3-14-20            2836   589
3-15-20            3714   771
3-16-20            4667   987            
3-17-20            6482   1819         

anyone who has at least two functioning synapses
should understand what the above table of numbers
will look like by the end of April, and the virus even at the end of April, will still be far below the beginning of the late Spring peak

anyone who argues differently, believes in "magical thinking"
Joos didn't believe they were on the way to the ovens either
just like you Goyim are now...

those who were "early believers" figured out their survival plan earlier
and lived the first year
but most of them didn't get past the second one though

[2tallbill]

[krimster2]

http://journals.lww.com/pidj/fulltext/2005/11001/history_and_recent_advances_in_coronavirus.12.aspx

covid is a “SARS" virus
in China, 40% of the workers in the “wet” animal food trade were seropositive for SARS
the 2003-2004 SARS epidemic was just like this one BUT
that epidemic infected a total of under 10,000 world wide with about the same death rate as covid
but covid has off the chart growth in comparison

[Gator]

Here is a link to a PowerBI Dashboard with a COVID-19 Data Analysis:

Splendid!  Thanks HDL. 

The graphics included from Microsoft's Greg Beaumont are outstanding.  His second page (bottom right) displays  "death rate vs. days from first case" for various nations.  It clearly shows the US is lagging behind Italy by 18 days.  Only Canada had a longer lag.  That chart would have saved me about 30-45 minutes of crunching data in my prior post. 

[Gator]

this is the infection summary for covid in the USA for the last 9 days

Save yourself some time and make your point more understandable by using the graphics source Hound Dog identified  above.  "1000 words vs. picture."

[Gator]

FP

Is the information described in the link below false?

http://projects.propublica.org/bailout/

I could not open your link.  I recall that TARP was a success - banks repaid all the US money with a significant profit.   Is that what your link says?

I do not recall what happened with Government Motors, yet it too was repaid IIRC.  I still assert Government Motors should have gone through bankruptcy court.  We could do without  GM, and the viable parts would have been reorganized into something that would be humming today.    Banks would be another matter.

[krimster2]

ok, my picture is SARS was a firecracker, covid is an atom bomb...

I like strawberry lipstick
I'm gonna buy one for myself
for when I have to kiss my ass goodby
either this year or next year...
especially considering the TP supply and availability problem in the distant future
flavored lipstick would just be a simple kindness to your own self in the end
strawberry instead of well, you know...

[BC]

What would explain the lag between Italy and the US other than Trump's travel ban? 

Gator,

We don't really know there is much of a 'lag' as there is not enough testing to support it.  Even the number of deaths in the USA could still be 'hidden' within the normal amounts of folks that die in flu season.  Numbers of cases are rising only because of more widespread testing.

There isn't enough testing being done to prove anything either way with a reasonable amount of confidence.

As you state, the population of the US is 6 times larger than Italy but in Italy a larger proportion of the population is elderly. Distances in the US are also much larger in the US even considering population that might slow things down a bit.  The US is 33 times the size of Italy.

Look at the simulations on this page:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Think of Italy... then imagine moving the dots two, three or four or more times more distance apart... the 'spread' will slow.

Reports of hospitals getting low on supplies, getting more patients is being more widely reported in the US now.  Unfortunately, this is likely to continue.

The 'Boom' here is only around 10 days old and very concentrated. Here, thanks to the nationwide containment efforts and testing, we can see that the number of infections detected per day seems to be levelling out at around 3,000 per day.  It has not yet started to decrease, but I am confident that the number of tests being performed is well above the number of infections, enough so to give a good idea of what is going on.

Testing in the US is the limiting factor with the number of infections likely far above the number of tests being performed.

This should explain the time factor with the US starting at pretty much the same time but proceeding at a different, slower pace.  The downside is that many believe the US will not have problems like in Italy thus slowness and disjointed efforts with containment measures.

I really hope it does not get so bad in the US, but based on the slowness in testing and containment, the risk is considerable that the 'peak' in the US may well end up considerably higher than in Italy.

Unfortunately, the only viable method of measuring how the virus is progressing in the US is not via testing, but instead the death count and screaming hospitals.

I am not a religious man but do pray I am wrong despite all the evidence leading to the contrary.

[Gator]

Somebody wants you scared.

Partial explanation of the anxiety.  Your "somebody" is the  liberal media taking the four-year-long tactic of blaming Trump in its reporting, and the Democrat candidates are not letting that opportunity pass.  One would think we would work together and avoid the partisan ways in addressing such a crisis. 

Other reasons for heightened anxiety:   
       -  This is about 1) a lot of normal people being killed by something they can not see and 2) destroying the economy ( we were enjoying the good life and that now is threatened) 
       -  This is the first "social media pandemic."
       -  Many films have a doomsday theme.
       

[BC]

I could not open your link.  I recall that TARP was a success - banks repaid all the US money with a significant profit.   Is that what your link says?

I would try the link again or with another browser, the link works fine here. 

It not only covers TARP but Freddie and Fanny along with a feature where you can enter the company to see what their payback status is.  GM was a net loss, others net gain.  All in all a gain.

[HoundDaddyLee]

Splendid!  Thanks HDL. 

The graphics included from Microsoft's Greg Beaumont are outstanding.  His second page (bottom right) displays  "death rate vs. days from first case" for various nations.  It clearly shows the US is lagging behind Italy by 18 days.  Only Canada had a longer lag.  That chart would have saved me about 30-45 minutes of crunching data in my prior post.

You're welcome Gator. If I get anymore updated dashboards I will share them here. I agree that data is much better that the raving delusions of our resident Autistic. 


HDL

[Gator]

A meaty and thoughtful response.  Demands the same. 

We don't really know there is much of a 'lag' as there is not enough testing to support it. 

Not precisely.  That is why I went with deaths, and Hound Dog Daddy's linked graphics echo my observation. 

Even the number of deaths in the USA could still be 'hidden' within the normal amounts of folks that die in flu season. 

Patients when still alive are tested for many different strains of flu in order to design a treatment program. The symptoms and the absence of a known flu speaks volumes about COVId-19. 

Numbers of cases are rising only because of more widespread testing.

 

They rise because of 1)  more testing and 2)  community spreading.

There isn't enough testing being done to prove anything either way with a reasonable amount of confidence.

 

Such does not prevent a pragmatic solution.  Really, what would we likely be doing different if we had better data?    A travel ban?  Wait.  We did that.  If anything, because of the lack of testing data, we may be overshooting (such as a travel ban ).  I don't mind erring on the safe side. 

As you state, the population of the US is 6 times larger than Italy but in Italy a larger proportion of the population is elderly. Distances in the US are also much larger in the US even considering population that might slow things down a bit.  The US is 33 times the size of Italy.

Yep.  Those are factors affecting the slope of the exponential growth, not whether it is linear or exponential growth ( Krimster has this point imprinted in his head))

Look at the simulations on this page:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Think of Italy... then imagine moving the dots two, three or four or more times more distance apart... the 'spread' will slow.

Yes the linear and exponential growth rates slow, but not the 18-day lag before hitting the exponential phase that the travel ban provided.   

Reports of hospitals getting low on supplies, getting more patients is being more widely reported in the US now.  Unfortunately, this is likely to continue.

Yes, the crest of the water surge of this CAT 5 Hurricane (or Tsunami) is higher than the dunes and barriers  protecting the communities along the shore.   

The 'Boom' here is only around 10 days old and very concentrated. Here, thanks to the nationwide containment efforts and testing, we can see that the number of infections detected per day seems to be levelling out at around 3,000 per day.  It has not yet started to decrease, but I am confident that the number of tests being performed is well above the number of infections, enough so to give a good idea of what is going on.

 

I saw that in your chart, and it appears the growth is plateauing. Splendid!!!! The percentage increase each day in Italian cases is stabilizing, even decreasing.   If this pattern holds, you will soon be sharing an espresso with your community intelligentsia at the local cafe, talking about testing.     

Testing in the US is the limiting factor with the number of infections likely far above the number of tests being performed.

This is the third time you mentioned this.  Got it! In fact I agree.  Yet it does not change the "lag" observations based on deaths. 

This should explain the time factor with the US starting at pretty much the same time but proceeding at a different, slower pace. 

The true linear phase perhaps has a steeper slope.  Does not matter.  What matters is when the exponential phase started.   

The downside is that many believe the US will not have problems like in Italy thus slowness and disjointed efforts with containment measures.

They are wrong, and not small in number, but its America.  We can't muster the troops and shoot them. 

I really hope it does not get so bad in the US, but based on the slowness in testing and containment, the risk is considerable that the 'peak' in the US may well end up considerably higher than in Italy.

Unadjusted peak for sure.  Relative peak based on population?  Hope not because Italy is taking it on the chin.   

Unfortunately, the only viable method of measuring how the virus is progressing in the US is not via testing, but instead the death count and screaming hospitals.

Bingo!  That is why I went with deaths rather than tests.  We have discussed this before, yes.

I am not a religious man but do pray I am wrong despite all the evidence leading to the contrary.

It is already worse that what I expected.  I explained pages ago my analysis to sell 20% of my stock holdings.  Then I sold another 5% with the oil war.  I did not hesitate, and it still was not enough.  And the hedging I did was minimal.      If one could only invest in retrospect...... (that would end many conversations).   

All I have to do now is stay alive to catch the rebound when the stock market realizes it overshot the landing strip.     

[BC]

Gator,

I won't answer point for point as we agree in many already.

I am not confident that at least early on those that passed in the US were tested.  After all, why waste a test in short supply when even doctors have a hard time getting themselves tested.

Also as posted earlier, the first cases in Italy and US were at most a few days apart.  As well as the 33 * Italy distance factor there are also social aspects as well that should be considered.  Social personal distance is quite different in our respective home countries.  A LOT more cheek kissing goes on here between all genders and ages. Simple handshake vs a handshake + kisses on both cheeks + a hug thrown-in and maybe a crotch salute between males equals much higher chances of passing on an infection.

As far as comparing statistics goes is that we have a LOT more valuable information in Italy and what seems to be a reliable official count of infected, deaths, cases in intensive care, hospitalizations, discharges and those in home quarantines on a daily basis.

CDC is hopelessly lost and at least a week behind with getting test results out. With a virus that moves this quick a week is an eternity. Even when it is over it will be almost impossible to come up with a reasonably accurate tally.

This can be devastating.  Just think of those folks that just bought a warehouse full of the most valuable asset, respirators and protective gear..  how in hell are they going to be able to decide how many will need to be sent to hospitals that need them the most, much less so in advance based on the number of emerging cases?  It is a 'Perfect Storm' brewing when it comes to planning and logistics.  It is one thing for a doctor to make a hard decision, quite another to not have a way to efficiently use much of the resources that are available.

http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Ftesting-in-us.html