What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[lordtiberius]

My friend. Igor Kravchuk, journalist and pro-democracy activist from Siberia, wrote about his son's life in the Army.  If ever we get swallowed up in this slow motion Third World War, we will be facing men like Valentin.  This is the life he knows:



Just look at the pictures - they speak for themselves

[lordtiberius]

More empty words from Team Obama on Ukraine

[southernX]

so , will russia kick off another round of major escalation this weekend while putin is here in australia ?

all signs are indicating he will , even the presence of his warship in the vicinity are asign he has fears for his safety when it goes off imo

he still really needs that land bridge to crimea and moldova

LETS ALL HOPE IT DOESNT HAPPEN

SX

[AC]

My friend. Igor Kravchuk, journalist and pro-democracy activist from Siberia, wrote about his son's life in the Army.  If ever we get swallowed up in this slow motion Third World War, we will be facing men like Valentin.  This is the life he knows:


(Russian)

Just look at the pictures - they speak for themselves

I think that I've changed my mind.  Forget ISIS, we need to go to war against these fools and crush them while the crushing is good.  Make a military pact with China and give them Siberia and the Far East, and we take the West.  Throw in a few Nato allies like Germany and we can call the new country "The United States of America, Germany and China".

Putin says it's okay to break international borders and invade other countries?  Let's give the SOB a real taste of that.   

[lordtiberius]

He is what you describe

[lordtiberius]

Russia is our biggest enemy yanks say:

http://www.b92.net/mobilni/eng/index.php?nav_id=93199

[AkMike]

Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy is flying three X-47B demonstrators off its aircraft carriers. http://dronewarfare.wordpress.com/2014/10/05/the-vulnerability-of-unmanned-aerial-vehicles/

 Hmm with drop tanks and the carriers out in the Med..  No need to go into the Black Bathtub.. 

[lordtiberius]

These are the right questions, Jay.

We used the Arab-Israeli wars to find out how our war material stacked up against the Soviets.  Given that Ukraine is defending NATO, now would be a good time reviewing our weapons systems against theirs.  In the book Charlie Wilson's War, the author pointed to a shadowy who determined it was the right weapons mix that brought down the Soviets - a similar weapons mix must be found given the complexity of this new kind of warfare.

That the weapons are lying there idle there is NO DOUBT.  I used to work at the Sierra Army Depot - there are thousands of land based war material that Ukraine could use to invade and occupy Moscow.

The way to destroy the Buks and Air Defense Assets will require an Air War.  Ukraine needs an air force that will gain air superiority and through a use of Electronic Warfare, Air to Air combat, drone and bombing targets starting with the ADA first.  Building up good pilots and getting them great planes - takes time - years really.  They need help now. . . .

[JayH]

It seems the US has some interesting answers to earlier drone vulnerability.
The ultra-lethal drones of the future

The Future
After the retirement of the SR-71 Blackbird spy plane, the military had an obvious gap in its arsenal.
In 2007, satellite pictures emerged showing new construction at Area 51, the Pentagon’s top-secret testing area in the Nevada desert. Veteran watchers of “black,” or secret, aircraft, immediately suspected that the Pentagon was preparing to test a new secret aircraft, and the most likely candidate was a stealth drone.
k
Now, two unmanned spy drones are under development. One that appears almost ready for combat is the RQ-180, a stealthy spy drone built by Northrop Grumman. Though the Pentagon refuses to confirm its existence, Aviation Week & Space Technology ran this artist’s concept earlier this year and revealed a little about its rumored design.
The RQ-180 is designed to fly very high, for a very long time (perhaps as long as 24 hours). According to Aviation Week, it has a 130-foot wing span and a “cranked kite” stealthy design that would allow it to slip past enemy radar. Chances are it will only be used for surveillance, not attack, though it could carry out an electronic attack.
http://nypost.com/2014/05/17/evolution-of-the-drone/

[lordtiberius]

You need the right weapons mix Jay.  There isn't one miracle weapon that will equalize or give a smaller force the advantage.  You need a weapons mix.  Also drones cannot operate very well in contested air environment.  You need manned pilots and electronic warfare superiority.

[JayH]

You need the right weapons mix Jay.  There isn't one miracle weapon that will equalize or give a smaller force the advantage.  You need a weapons mix.  Also drones cannot operate very well in contested air environment.  You need manned pilots and electronic warfare superiority.

Hence my questions.
What is required to neutralise Russian detection systems?
Given that the airspace being used is Ukrainian and that ground support logistical support can be quite close in flying time--  what would allow using drones to decimate Russian ground hardware  without high risk of being attacked ?
It seems to me that effectively closing the border to prevent Russian reinforcements and supplies-and retreat! --is the most effective fast way to do this.
The only choice for Putin would be to escalate in a massive way-- so the west would need to prepare for that eventuality.
On my strategy list--give Putin a week to get out of Crimea-then repeat procedure!

[lordtiberius]

OK.

Good questions.

There are men with more extensive experience than me but I will chime in.  I don't think the Russian president will stop raping Ukraine.  He can leer at Moldova, Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic's but these next 2 years and 2 years is all he has, to complete his conquest of Ukraine.  He won't come close.

Ukraine unlike Afghanistan avails itself more for armored warfare.  The Afghans use the tertian to isolate and mass troops against defending outposts and smaller units.  See operation Redwings.  The Mujahedeen (and the Taliban) don't need an air force.  Ukraine needs an air force.

The air force has to be at a minimum they need to be well trained.  NATO has good schools for dogfighting using Warsaw equipment.  They need to be at those schools or graduates of those schools.

How to destroy the ADA threat?  You need an EP-3.  These aircraft jam frequencies emitted by the Buk, Strela and SAMs so they don't work.  Then you fix their coordinates and bomb them.

Drones can help you see.  So can HUMINT.  Human assets reporting dispositions.  That means money.  Western intelligence agencies have a need to know.  US has deep pockets but other countries should step up.  US has to share NSA data.

The most important thing is to reform the Kiev Military Soviet.

They need tanks and repair facilities.  Lots and lots of gas.  Billy B thinks this can be done in a high sanctions environment.  No.  War us very expensive and wasteful.  Its horrible.  But there are worse things than war.

[JayH]

The most important thing is to reform the Kiev Military Soviet.
.

This is a topic in itself-- and the thread the idiot started is relevant to it.
The problem I see-- and have alluded to many times in comments--it is impossible to do everything at once. I mean politically--but the reorganisation of the military is a priority.But-- you cant stop a war and embark on a 5 year plan!
The integration of the volunteer battalions should be a prioity-but as you know-- there is considerable dissatisfaction with the leadership from Kiev.
The  battalions have just formed a co-ordinating group to represent them- I think a good move as it combines the voices into a cohesive unit.Needless to say--the traditional military see these battalions as a bit of a loose cannon in the system. I see them as as patriots who have been prepared to fight for what they believe.
Right now--Ukraine cannot afford the luxury of infighting in any area-- only a dedicated determined defence can succeed.

[lordtiberius]

I agree with you on all that you have written in the previous post.  And I especially agree with this:

I see them as as patriots who have been prepared to fight for what they believe.

And you are right.  Rome was not built in a day.  Ukraine is facing the same problem Israel did in 1948.  But the Arabs didn't have an $ 88 B a year ( and shrinking) military to contend with.  Yet Israel developed its own tactics and in many ways man for man was a better Army than the US Army in Korea to the present was in tactics, training and strategy. 

We have no doubts about the Ukrainian spirit, but they need guns and training.

[AC]

I see them as as patriots who have been prepared to fight for what they believe.

What percentage of Ukrainian's are patriots who are prepared to fight and die for their country?

If the number were 10% then Putin and Russia would be facing 4.5 million Ukrainians ready to fight to the death to defend their homeland.

But it's not 10%.  What is the figure?  2% or less?

I can assure you without a doubt that if the USA were under attack on our soil at least 10% of Americans would be ready to fight.

Think about it.  It's very disappointing the West has moved so slow.  It's also disappointing that many disco's in Ukraine are probably still packed with young men not prepared to defend their country.

[lordtiberius]

I can assure you without a doubt that if the USA were under attack on our soil at least 10% of Americans would be ready to fight.

LOL

How many Americans join the military and are veterans of the Iraq or Afghan wars?

Here's a hint, it's less than 1%

[AC]

LOL

How many Americans join the military and are veterans of the Iraq or Afghan wars?

Here's a hint, it's less than 1%

LOL why would you compare a war in a foreign country to a war on American soil?
(or did you not read what I wrote)

There are over 300 million legally registered weapons on US soil and there are at least
35 million living veterans who would take up arms to defend American soil, if need be.

Fortunately we would never need that many fighting persons to repel an invasion due to our
advanced weapons. 

Which is why we need to train Ukrainians and give them some of those advanced weapons.
However I personally think it may be too late at this time.

Just like WWII large portions of territory were lost which later needed to be reclaimed in combat.

[lordtiberius]

LOL why would you compare a war in a foreign country to a war on American soil?
(or did you not read what I wrote)

There are over 300 million legally registered weapons on US soil and there are at least
35 million living veterans who would take up arms to defend American soil, if need be.

Fortunately we would never need that many fighting persons to repel an invasion due to our
advanced weapons. 

Which is why we need to train Ukrainians and give them some of those advanced weapons.
However I personally think it may be too late at this time.

Just like WWII large portions of territory were lost which later needed to be reclaimed in combat.

You have been to Ukraine.  How many have guns?  Also would you agree that the political history of Ukraine and the US is a little different?  Perhaps your comparison was unfair?

[fathertime]

  Also would you agree that the political history of Ukraine and the US is a little different?  Perhaps your comparison was unfair?

No, the comparison was fair, and a reasonable point to make.
Fathertime! 

[AC]

You have been to Ukraine.  How many have guns?  Also would you agree that the political history of Ukraine and the US is a little different?  Perhaps your comparison was unfair?

I hate to agree with fathertime, however I don't think that the comparison is unfair.  People only truly appreciate freedom when they earn it themselves. 

IMO there should be hundreds of thousands of civilian volunteers right now in Mariupol digging trenches and ditches to stop the tanks which are inevitably coming.  There should be hundreds of thousands of volunteer snipers in all of the apartment buildings and other high-rise buildings. 

If the Taliban can make IED's then so can the Ukrainians.  Finland held back Russia with vastly fewer troops and Molotov cocktails.

I believe that many if not most volunteer soldiers come from W. Ukraine.  I doubt if W. Ukraine will ever fall to Russia again.

[JayH]

AC--there has been a considerable effort in Ukraine to people to allow the army to do the job they are trying to be equipped for.What is happening that virtually everyplace with a name has a local armed group in training-so literally thousands are in preparation.I hope they never have to fire a shot in anger.
The volunteers are from all over Ukraine.
There has been a considerable number of reports citizens in the east  sniping at the invaders-and also in assisting the Ukrainian forces-- all at huge risk to themselves.
I will never subscribe to the suggestion that Ukrainians have not made--or are not making enough sacrifices to achieve their freedom.
Stories of individuals avoiding the draft are not unique to Ukraine-- but a few cases are highlighted to attempt to paint the picture that Ukrainians do not want to fight.
A little over a year ago-- posters here repeatedly said Ukrainians would not fight Russia or Russians- look at that now!
Give Ukraine the weapons to give them a real chance-- and then try and tell me they have no desire for their freedom.

[AC]

Give Ukraine the weapons to give them a real chance-- and then try and tell me they have no desire for their freedom.

I fear it's too late, however I agree with the statement that if Ukrainian's had been properly armed they would have defended their territory completely.

Other nations observing this will want to keep Nuclear weapons or get them, in order to defend against unchecked aggression.

[fathertime]

IMO there should be hundreds of thousands of civilian volunteers right now in Mariupol digging trenches and ditches to stop the tanks which are inevitably coming.  There should be hundreds of thousands of volunteer snipers in all of the apartment buildings and other high-rise buildings. 

BULLSEYE with that one!  I must say it is a curiosity why these sort of things haven't happened...although Jayh will come up with some goofy excuse. 


Fathertime!

[JayH]

I fear it's too late, however I agree with the statement that if Ukrainian's had been properly armed they would have defended their territory completely.

Other nations observing this will want to keep Nuclear weapons or get them, in order to defend against unchecked aggression.

I thought last week was depressing-but now the news of huge build up in Mariupol area is really bad news. It also seems that Kharkiv is on target list-- at least sufficiently enough to stop Ukrainian forces being concentrated in Mariupol  area.
Only Russia is   likely to proliferate nuclear weapons-- and only oil money can bail Russian economy out.

[lordtiberius]

I hate to agree with fathertime, however I don't think that the comparison is unfair.  People only truly appreciate freedom when they earn it themselves. 

IMO there should be hundreds of thousands of civilian volunteers right now in Mariupol digging trenches and ditches to stop the tanks which are inevitably coming.  There should be hundreds of thousands of volunteer snipers in all of the apartment buildings and other high-rise buildings. 

If the Taliban can make IED's then so can the Ukrainians.  Finland held back Russia with vastly fewer troops and Molotov cocktails.

I believe that many if not most volunteer soldiers come from W. Ukraine.  I doubt if W. Ukraine will ever fall to Russia again.

You overestimate the United States and human nature.  You don't understand how the Soviet system disfigures people psychologically and culturally. 

Human nature is cowardly.  It is wise to avoid a fight rather than engage in one.  Most people leave when war comes being both wise for some and cowardly in others.  Those that do fight have my respect, but it is not what I expect out of the majority of people.

The United States that you describe stands in contrast to one that elected and re-elected a President more comfortable on the Hollywood red carpet than one on main street doing work. 

The Soviet Union . . . that speaks for itself, you are a student of history.  I am rather surprised you would make such statements given the limitations of the post-Soviet mind in this part of the world.

I fear it's too late, however I agree with the statement that if Ukrainian's had been properly armed they would have defended their territory completely.

Other nations observing this will want to keep Nuclear weapons or get them, in order to defend against unchecked aggression.

This statement is inconsistent logically with your previous statement.  The Ukrainians are cowardly yet those that want to fight, we shouldn't arm because they won't stand a chance anyway?  My view is that resistance is a state of mind and it should always be nurtured.  We should always nurture such resistance to those willing hands.  The more probably the victory the more numerous the hands.  Still even in the most dubious prospect of military victory, we should supply them with ample arms and training to resist and roll back the invader.  I also don't think the Russian system is very strong.  Russia is a wealthy country.  The Russians themselves are a strong and important people.  Yet a system of slavery is by definition inefficient and this particular brand of corruption lopsided.

Ukraine over 90% of Ukrainian arms is over 15 years old.  The Ukrainian diaspora has funded volunteer battalions of which there are by some estimates over 10,000.  This Soviet organized military up until August was on the path of defeating Strelkov and needed Uncle Vova's regulars.  During the phony Minsk truces, Ukraine has taken losses but they have inflicted losses against the enemy as well.  That is very incredible.

I have never seen that before.

Putin cannot say to his people that his boys are dying because the Germans, the Americans or the Poles are killing them.  Ukrainians are killing them - filling the trucks of Gruz 200.  Putin calls Ukraine a NATO legion.  None of that is true except in the sense that Ukraine is defending NATO and Ukrainians bled carrying the EU flag on the Maidan.

Let me echo the words of my old boss Senator John McCain:



We should arm and train these people now.