Russian Women Discussion

RWD Discussion Groups => Odds and Ends => Topic started by: Gator on February 02, 2020, 02:01:33 PM

Title: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 02, 2020, 02:01:33 PM
Upon first learning of  2019-nCoV, I dismissed it,  believing China with its authoritarian government would take the necessary measures to limit its spread. 

China has failed so far;  the number of human infections has progressed exponentially and continues to do so. The total number of confirmed cases already far exceeds the total number of cases reported for SARS, another coronavirus originating in China.

A graph of past and current 2019 - nCoV infections can be found here showing the exponential growth rate (I attempted to post a graph, yet it was too large for the RWD page).   

  http://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/samples/2020/01/DashVirus012820.png

Unchecked exponential growth is very serious.  A second chart shows the current rate would infect 138 million persons by 20 February!   The projections can be seen using logarithmic scales as below:   

  http://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/samples/2020/01/DashVirusProgression012820b.png


It is claimed that the exponential spread resulted from China suppressing the news about this outbreak.  The same autocracy that allowed China to suppress the news now allows them to implement drastic measures. 

A virus tracker maintained by Johns Hopkins University shows 14,637 confirmed cases worldwide.  For updates, go to:

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
Today's info shows a ray of sunshine as the total falls below the exponential rate consistently seen from the start through 27 January.   There are more rays of sunshine.  2019- CoV has now been replicated and samples have been distributed worldwide to research organizations. 

2019 - CoV is not as fatal as SARS, yet is much more infectious.  It has the capacity to lower economic growth significantly worldwide.  My old employer, WHO, has declared a PHEIC, a public health emergency of international concern.  Not unprecedented, yet very serious. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 02, 2020, 02:15:58 PM
If the coronavirus remains unchecked and hits the United States, we are far more prepared than most other nations in addressing the disease and in handling infected patients. 

The most prepared nations were Canada, Netherlands, Thailand, and the United States.  I imagine a reason for the US being ranked "most prepared" is the preparation we have done for terrorism involving nuclear, biological and chemical attacks. 

http://www.nti.org/about/projects/global-health-security-index/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 02, 2020, 02:27:06 PM
I allowed myself to be misled by the bianco charts I referenced earlier that were claiming exponential growth of infections.  The current data from John Hopkins suggest the  rate is probably transitioning into logarithmic growth seen as follows for bacterial colonies: 

(http://cdn.britannica.com/s:700x500/68/6168-050-EB74BC4E/growth-curve-colonies-phases.jpg)

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 02, 2020, 02:40:59 PM
The slowing of confirmed cases in China can be seen in this Johns Hopkins chart. 

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A cynic could argue that growth slowed for just one day or the Chinese statisticians took a break to rest for a day.  :D   Neverthless the total number is well less than that predicted just a few days ago by Bianco's exponential growth. 


Sorry, I rushed this while organizing a Superbowl Pool.  Go Chiefs! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 02, 2020, 03:03:51 PM
http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
Today's info shows a ray of sunshine as the total falls below the exponential rate consistently seen from the start through 27 January.   


The slowing of confirmed cases in China can be seen in this Johns Hopkins chart. 

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A cynic could argue that growth slowed for just one day or the Chinese statisticians took a break to rest for a day.  :D   Neverthless the total number is well less than that predicted just a few days ago by Bianco's exponential growth. 


Don't predict sunshine yet. I've looked at that website everyday. The graph will look flat(no increase of new infections reported) between yesterday and the current day until the next update which is tonight. The numbers infected get updated in the evening USA time. Every day the final report of new infections broke a record. Revisit that site tonight or in the morning and you will see that graph change. What we can celebrate, although there is no cure, there have been over 400 people that beat the virus on their own and made a full recovery.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 03, 2020, 08:17:39 AM
Over the last two days, the reported number of confirmed cases increased, yet at a slower rate than seen in late January.   We just hope the Chinese are reporting actual data.     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on February 03, 2020, 08:20:12 AM
We just hope the Chinese are reporting actual data.   

Like there really is a tooth fairy.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 03, 2020, 08:26:06 AM
It is concerning because China knows that people must soon start going outside their home if the economy is  not to falter.    Will they risk public health to save the economy?     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 03, 2020, 08:32:12 AM
ECONOMIC IMPACT

The impact of coronavirus on the global economy may affect us more than the public health impact.  An interview today on CNBC with the renown economist Mohamed El-Erian was concerning:

      -  He spoke of "accelerating sudden stop dynamics." In 2008, the financial issue of mortgage defaults cascaded into the Great  Recession.   Coronoavirus is not a financial issue but an economic one. 
      -  China's economy  will surely be hit hard if people are not leaving their homes.  Minimal shopping, slowdown at factories, etc.
      -  El-Erian is concerned about a possible economic ripple effect:  China to Emerging Asia to Europe to America. 
      -  Europe's growth is already slowing (1.2% for 2019) approaching stall speed.   
      -  While the Central Banks' injections worked in 2008-2010, this time they may be ineffective.  Europe is already at near zero rates.   How does increasing money flow help in China if people are not flowing. 
      -  We do not know if this economic "shock" is  containable, temporary and reversible.  Each is important.   

The general feeling I perceive from watching analysts is do not  make a wholesale sell of stocks.  However, it is not a time to buy the dips nor the time to be leveraged.    Some selective selling seems prudent. 
Title: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on February 03, 2020, 09:46:57 AM
The Moby crowd start writing articles.
 
Fears of new virus trigger anti-China sentiment worldwide
http://apnews.com/04f18aafe1074a1c06b4203edcbdc661


Fear of coronavirus fuels racist sentiment targeting Asians
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fear-of-coronavirus-fuels-racist-sentiment-targeting-asians/ar-BBZBw8I

Passengers sprayed with hoses on runway after flying from coronavirus epicentre
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/passengers-sprayed-hoses-after-flying-21421289

Hong Kong shuts most China crossings over virus as medics strike
http://news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-medics-strike-china-border-closure-over-032415572.html


Prediction: MIAE
Title: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on February 03, 2020, 09:53:56 AM

(http://cdn.creators.com/199/271616/271616_image.jpg)


(http://cloudinary.cagle.com/image/upload/w_600/cartoons/234522.png)


(http://cloudinary.cagle.com/image/upload/w_600/cartoons/234591.png)


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 03, 2020, 03:08:31 PM
We may never learn how many people will have died from the virus. Before this became official news, journalists in China and people on the internet were talking about the mysterious new illness and got arrested for doing so. The story ended up being too big for China to hide but I suspect they are still underreporting numbers to give the impression things aren't so bad. Most regions in China reporting infections in the hundreds also report zero deaths according to the latest reports.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A few days ago there were 16 cities under lockdown and 60 million people quarantined. The numbers may have increased. Imagine 20% of Americans locked down. China should've put out a public health warning and took action before this got out of control.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 03, 2020, 04:50:23 PM
BillyB-

I thought China was in fact pro-active about this. They had quarantined the entire city proper FWIW, and immediately issue travel warnings, building makeshift hospitals to treat those afflicted, etc...(?)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 03, 2020, 05:50:39 PM
BillyB-

I thought China was in fact pro-active about this. They had quarantined the entire city proper FWIW, and immediately issue travel warnings, building makeshift hospitals to treat those afflicted, etc...(?)


I wanted to believe China was doing the right thing but after reviewing old articles, they were trying to cover it up. The virus is named 2019-nCoV because it was discovered in 2019 Dec 8, yet we just learned about it a couple of weeks ago. China didn't put out public health and travel warnings. They were arresting people that talked about it. They weren't building hospitals until this thing exploded out of control to the point they couldn't keep it a secret anymore.

Two days before Wuhan, with the Communist party's blessing, told the world about the outbreak, they advertised a potluck for citizens and got more than 40,000 families together in one spot to eat in hopes they'd break a world record. The same day they announced the outbreak, the city also advertised they're giving away 200,000 free tickets to attend the city's new year celebration! Business as usual. Very irresponsible of the government to sponsor large groups of people together TWICE knowing there is an unknown and uncontrollable virus that has affected some of their citizens.

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/health/virus-corona.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-information-crackdown-on-wuhan-coronavirus-2020-1

No saying goodbye to loved ones. China says infected dead bodies to be immediately cremated,

http://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-wuhan-coronavirus-victims-035557851.html

Bird flu is back in China. Over 4000 dead. All we need now is the swine flu to return to China to complete the reunion.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/china-reports-bird-flu-outbreak-213148810.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 03, 2020, 06:08:28 PM
It's OK. I read a report the common flu virus killed 10,000 Americans last year alone. Denge fever had so far killed 5 Bolivians this year so far, etc... Big Deal right?

According to our liberal zealots the world is imploding by 2012 making whatever China is doing, or not, seem rather trivial, don't you think?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 03, 2020, 06:50:43 PM
It's OK. I read a report the common flu virus killed 10,000 Americans last year alone. Denge fever had so far killed 5 Bolivians this year so far, etc... Big Deal right?

According to our liberal zealots the world is imploding by 2012 making whatever China is doing, or not, seem rather trivial, don't you think?


This coronavirus is a big deal. Russia, as well as most China's neighbors, closed it's 2600 mile land border with China. Governments are quarantining people arriving from China if they are even allowed to enter. China has quarantined 60 mil people. 170+ nations don't even have 60 mil people. Governments aren't alarming people but the steps they are taking are alarming. There are no vaccines or anti viral medicines to beat the virus, only quarantine to slow the spread of it.

Everybody on this forum got a flu virus once or multiple times in their lives and survival rate is high. If a billion people got the flu and a million died, this number is acceptable to governments and the medical community. The standard flu virus we deal with mutates but is predictable and big pharma can develop new vaccines every year to beat it. Take a look at the link below. The Hubai region which contains the city of Wuhan reported 414 deaths and 396 recoveries. I doubt the numbers reflect truth but assuming they are true, when a person's battle with the virus is over, there is less than a 50% survival rate. Most of the time the virus wins the battle and if it went around the world once, over half the world's population would be wiped out. Of course there will be other factors involved in survival rate. We have better medical care and medicine to boost our immune systems. It's up to our immune system to beat the virus because there is no cure for it.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

IMO, this is a very important topic that impact lives and should be moved to Odds and Ends where guests could read it. Being in Anything Goes, only a few signed in forum members could read it so hopefully a mod can move it to Odds and Ends.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 04, 2020, 07:23:17 PM

Good news. The first man in the US diagnosed with the coronavirus makes a full recovery. I'm sure he had the best doctors and medical treatment to help his immune system beat the virus.

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/1st-patient-diagnosed-coronavirus-u-s-released-hospital-n1129201

Bad news is it seems China is still underreporting the amount of deaths. Most provinces report 0 deaths although some provinces have 1000 people infected. Also, yesterdays new infection count took it's biggest jump ever with 4000 newly confirmed infections.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 05, 2020, 03:24:44 PM
A friend in our group chat is a Microbiologist and is keeping tabs on this, he shared these links earlier today. Not sure the truth contained in the first but the second is in a journal that isn't yet peer reviewed and seems truthful. The first seems to indicate what most figured but couldn't prove. The numbers are 10x lower than 'actual' we'll see in the coming days I suppose.

http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594?fbclid=IwAR2oyclU3mCSFfGngnhCbNL1Q1XKtIwEa4WYNBPEgwEcL1ejzYQr25uvHXQ

According to Chinese scientists, the Corona Virus attaches onto lung receptors that are five times more likely in Asian males, Also....Caucasian people are essentially immune because we have the acetylcholinase inhibitor against the virus.

http://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full?fbclid=IwAR0rgD_kEjQUd6H5UTyRsnN9lwL68cyHvph6dJ7nRd-HQt67uWi_9c5buFs
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 05, 2020, 03:38:28 PM
The numbers are 10x lower than 'actual' we'll see in the coming days I suppose.


I believe the numbers are higher. There's less data on the John Hopkins link Gator provided in post #1.  China has changed the way they report. I remember some regions in China have around 1000 people infected and they report dozens of recoveries and zero deaths. That can't be right. The amount of people infected on each of China's regions is the data now missing. If it is reported like it was earlier, it will definitely give the impression  the recovery to death ratio has been manipulated.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 05, 2020, 03:50:16 PM
Currently it's showing about a 15% mortality rate (25,000 Dead / 155,000 Infected) which also coincides with what the Medical Journal stated as well.

Severe infection by 2019-nCov could result in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis, causing death in approximately 15% of infected individuals.


(http://backendimage.taiwannews.com.tw/photos/2020/02/05/1580900133-5e3a9f2567c51.jpg)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 05, 2020, 03:52:11 PM
This would also make more sense as to why Crematorium workers at all 3 Crematoriums are working 24/7 With forced overtime.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/we-cant-stop-funeral-worker-says-wuhan-cremating-at-least-100-bodies-a-day-amid-coronavirus-outbreak

Edit: Same as the original Taiwan News story but includes other stories of Dozens of police quarantining a city block after one case was found, as well as pictures of hospitals. Appears to be much more than the "Official" numbers. Don't know anything about the site, but the sources pointing to other pictures, videos and stories are what was interesting to me.

http://www.ccn.com/alleged-tencent-leak-suggests-coronavirus-death-toll-spiraling-to-25000/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: jone on February 05, 2020, 06:15:50 PM
Gilead, an American company, applied for a treatment virus patent three years ago.  The target of this treatment was the Ebola virus.  One of the patent applications was filed in China.   China rejected the patent, even though part of the purpose of the patent was anticipated viral agents similar to Corona.

Now, upon proof by Gilead, that their anti viral agent works on Corona, China is filing its own patent for the same treatment/medication offered by Gilead, even though they rejected Gilead's patent.   They are using Gilead's cure and taking credit for it.

This will not go well in the US.   Gilead is a Foster City, CA based company with tentacles into the Democratic party and the current administration.   Be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 05, 2020, 10:34:24 PM
Currently it's showing about a 15% mortality rate (25,000 Dead / 155,000 Infected) which also coincides with what the Medical Journal stated as well.


Mortality rate is higher. Those that are infected, their fight to live is still going and we won't know the results of that group until the fight is over when they beat the virus or the virus beats them.

John Hopkins reports about 4000 new infections. The highest one day jump so far.

This would also make more sense as to why Crematorium workers at all 3 Crematoriums are working 24/7 With forced overtime.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/we-cant-stop-funeral-worker-says-wuhan-cremating-at-least-100-bodies-a-day-amid-coronavirus-outbreak


My nephew told me about a story he read where someone took a photo of a van full of dead bodies. That person got in trouble. I think most nations know China is underreporting based off their actions of closing borders and banning flights in and out of China.

Gilead, an American company, applied for a treatment virus patent three years ago.  The target of this treatment was the Ebola virus.  One of the patent applications was filed in China.   China rejected the patent, even though part of the purpose of the patent was anticipated viral agents similar to Corona.


There's a risk patenting with the Chinese. You submit the blueprints to your product. They may or may not protect your rights. I wouldn't doubt the Chinese right now are in their patent office stealing the blueprints to the latest drugs and vaccines in hopes something works.

In other news  Chinese doctor who was punished for trying to warn the public early about the virus now has the virus himself. Macau casinos told to close.

http://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/chinese-doctor-punished-for-warning-people-about-coronavirus-now-has-the-illness-203152013.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-virus-death-toll-posts-grim-record-rise-passes-400/ar-BBZCynr?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 06, 2020, 10:09:26 AM
In other news  Chinese doctor who was punished for trying to warn the public early about the virus now has the virus himself.

http://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/chinese-doctor-punished-for-warning-people-about-coronavirus-now-has-the-illness-203152013.html


Chinese doctor now dead.

http://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/whistleblower-chinese-doctor-dies-coronavirus-155553261.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 06, 2020, 07:10:34 PM
Chinese doctor now dead.

Brave man who was the first to warn China and the world of the virus, then punished by Chinese government, and then died from the virus.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 06, 2020, 07:31:01 PM
http://www.jubakpicks.com/what-we-still-dont-know-about-the-coronavirus-according-to-who-as-chinese-workers-begin-to-return-to-work/


"....in China millions of migrant workers are beginning to return to work in cities around the country with China doing whatever it can think of to minimize the threat of the epidemic spreading on trains and planes.... measures include compulsory temperature checks, strengthened disinfection, better ventilation, and higher hygiene standards in both vehicles and terminals. China Railway will ensure an occupation rate of no more than 50% on trains, while civil aviation authorities have asked airlines to reserve a “quarantine zone” on planes and seat passengers as far apart as possible."
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 06, 2020, 07:34:01 PM
This suggests the worse is over.  Nevertheless, work remains. 

"WHO said it still doesn’t know the source of the outbreak, or what its natural reservoir is, or its transmissibility or severity."

"A number of outside health researchers and organizations tracking the disease say that the next big question is whether the coronavirus epidemic now limited largely to one country becomes a true pandemic with centers of infection arising outside China.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 06, 2020, 07:37:20 PM
Better hurry while the sale is on! 


(http://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=f57f246ca2&attid=0.1&permmsgid=msg-f:1657829099836157415&th=1701cac8620a2de7&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ-140YcdFt_blww9-bztYA1Q8Z5v4C7lq0vjXsBFqTFPxcqKlaXUfSgVB84DN4LzK9RyUmdZWqt7RZTWuAHmmaVp79WdICMaJEr0pcG12qgryEspIRyWcGsmhQ&disp=emb)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 11, 2020, 02:44:49 PM
High amounts of Sulfur Dioxide showing all over the populated areas of China. The burning of organics which includes human bodies emits Sulfur Dioxide. Wuhan is showing the most Sulfur Dioxide.

http://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?so2sm,44.402,40.957,3
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 11, 2020, 05:53:37 PM
High amounts of Sulfur Dioxide showing all over the populated areas of China. The burning of organics which includes human bodies emits Sulfur Dioxide. Wuhan is showing the most Sulfur Dioxide.

http://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?so2sm,44.402,40.957,3

I saw that last week, but didn't have a source to confirm it. Seems those leaked numbers are true. Just saw this today.

Here is an estimate of 1.5m coronavirus cases in China, 50,000 deaths in Wuhan
http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/here-is-an-estimate-of-15m-coronavirus-cases-in-china-50000-deaths-in-wuhan-alone-20200210
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 12, 2020, 06:32:20 PM

Nearly 16,000 new cases of infections today which is the biggest one day jump ever.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The WHO gives the virus a new name so it doesn't offend or apply a stigma to a certain group people or animals.

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-gets-official-name-who-covid-19-n1134756
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 12, 2020, 07:05:46 PM
Nearly 16,000 new cases of infections today which is the biggest one day jump ever.

This needs explanation. 

China has changed its basis for determining if a person is infected.  China until this change had reported only cases that have been confirmed by laboratory testing of respiratory and serum samples from clinical specimens.  Now China includes clinically diagnosed cases. 

From the start there were questions about the supply of available test kits and qualified laboratories.  Many assumed that China's analytical capacity was constrained, thereby artificially placing a limit on the maximum number of cases that could be tested in any day.  China was steadily reporting about 3000 new cases per day  in early February and had even reported a slowing of new cases.   

Today China added a second category besides those confirmed by laboratory testing.  This additional category is for clinically diagnosed cases without laboratory confirmation.  This is based primarily CT scan results (which would show severe lung  inflammation, the body's immune system response).   

Under its new protocol,  China today (Feb 13 in China) reported 14,840 new cases vs. 2,000 cases on February 11.       
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 12, 2020, 07:14:39 PM
This needs explanation. 


It's always been assumed China is underreporting and probably still is. John Hopkins only report what they are told. Notice some Chinese provinces have thousands infected, report hundreds recovered, yet report no deaths or one death.

China has a hard time stopping the virus from infecting their most important people to fight the virus. At least 500 medical workers infected and a possible 600 more could be infected. Incompetent management endangering the lives of employees and patients. I've seen plenty of photos of Chinese medical workers and they wear simple masks which can't stop the virus 100% of the time. The ones who are best qualified to give medical attention should be the ones most protected since they are around the virus everyday and are critical in stopping it and saving lives. Are cows still more valuable than human life in China these days?

http://www.businessinsider.com/healthcare-workers-getting-coronavirus-500-infected-2020-2

175 now infected with coronavirus on cruise ship, including quarantine officer. People are probably wishing they cancelled their vacations to Asia like common sense told them so.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/175-now-infected-with-coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-including-quarantine-officer/
Title: COVID - 19
Post by: Gator on February 12, 2020, 07:22:42 PM
Billy,

There have been questions from the start about China's reports or lack thereof.  One US senator raised the possibility the virus may have come from China’s biological warfare program, which supposedly has a laboratory near Wuhan


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 12, 2020, 07:24:15 PM

The WHO gives the virus a new name so it doesn't offend or apply a stigma to a certain group people or animals.


Racial discrimination is indeed occurring, yet the designation has nothing to do with a  stigma.  Previously it was referred to as 2019 - nCoV.

"Following WHO best practices for naming of new human infectious diseases,....WHO has named the disease COVID-19, short for “coronavirus disease 2019.”


http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=fb6d49b1_2
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 12, 2020, 07:25:46 PM
People are probably wishing they cancelled their vacations to Asia like common sense told them so.



'People' are wondering why you are posting tosh about this virus ..

You KEEP posting about face-masks ... and I keep telling you that the face-masks most folk wear are useless after they become damp - six minutes ...


More people will die from 'flu in the UK / US than your 'fixation' ..

SC is in Asia and I'm NO more worried about her catching Covid-19 than I am you telling 'the world' another version of "How Moby kept SC waiting" and "V wasn't avoiding signing divorce papers" ...or even repeatedly stating  "Moby didn't tell partners about his affliction" ..

You ARE a 'virus'..)))   Just not a very infectious or serious one

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 12, 2020, 07:37:39 PM
The recent news simply reveals that we do not have this disease under control. 

The disease is spreading outside China , infecting people who did not travel to China or have any known contact with someone who did travel.  See WHO's Situation Report 23 http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200212-sitrep-23-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=41e9fb78_2

Pay attention to countries such as Singapore, which are 3-4 weeks ahead of the US in this possible pandemic.   

Singapore has 47 cases, 22 "with travel history to China," and 25 cases with "possible or
confirmed transmission outside of China.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 12, 2020, 07:44:18 PM
More people will die from 'flu in the UK / US than your 'fixation' ..


You are very weak in many areas, especially in math and common sense. If you were to get infected this year from a virus and you had a choice, would you want the flu virus or the new coronavirus?

7 billion people on earth probably experienced flu viruses once or multiple times in their lives. Millions have died. If 7 billion people experiences this coronavirus just once, billions will die using the current death vs recovery numbers China is providing. The situation is probably much more grim.

There are vaccines and anti viral medicines for flu viruses. There is no known cure for this coronavirus. But proceed to tell people the flu virus is worse. Nobody trusts you anyway.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 12, 2020, 07:51:55 PM
'People' are wondering why you are posting tosh about this virus ..

You KEEP posting about face-masks ... and I keep telling you that the face-masks most folk wear are useless after they become damp - six minutes ...

Where did he keep posting about face-masks? I see one reference to paper/surgical masks. Which is true. Several at the CDC have said the only masks worth using are P95/P100 Style. The greatest advantage to using those paper masks is that people are less likely to touch their face.

More people will die from 'flu in the UK / US than your 'fixation' ..

That's true. I often think about the upcoming new flu variant and how the US/UK is preparing to Quarantine 60 Million people for flu season.  :cluebat:

It's a hassle, but you get used to it living in 2020.

SC is in Asia and I'm NO more worried about her catching Covid-19 than I am you telling 'the world' another version of "How Moby kept SC waiting" and "V wasn't avoiding signing divorce papers" ...or even repeatedly stating  "Moby didn't tell partners about his affliction" ..

You ARE a 'virus'..)))   Just not a very infectious or serious one

At it again I see.


You can't stop

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 12, 2020, 08:05:30 PM
You are very weak in many areas, especially in math and common sense. If you were to get infected this year from a virus and you had a choice, would you want the flu virus or the new coronavirus?

Good point.  Part of the "rumor mill" is an infected person is never cured of COVID -19.  Infected people are not demonstrating  evidence of developing individual immunity to future outbreaks. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 12, 2020, 08:34:02 PM
I often think about the upcoming new flu variant and how the US/UK is preparing to Quarantine 60 Million people for flu season.


Moby thinks the flu is worse than the coronavirus. Millions of Americans will get the flu this year. Same in China, Russia and many other countries yet we don't close borders and conduct business as usual. Nations have not been very verbal about what is going on but look at what they do, not what they say. China's neighbors have closed their borders. Flights in and out of China have been banned. Coronavirus is not just a people killer, it's an economy killer.

American CDC predicts a community outbreak of the virus is likely which means somebody infected is going to get through unchecked and spread it to a lot more people.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/community-spread-of-new-coronavirus-in-us-likely-cdc/ar-BBZUQt1?ocid=spartanntp

SC is in Asia and I'm NO more worried about her catching Covid-19


Is she vacationing in North Korea? They report zero infections and zero deaths.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 13, 2020, 03:06:20 AM
Where did he keep posting about face-masks?

Don't be as Silly as BillyB...

Try to check to whom a quote is addressing..)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 13, 2020, 03:15:36 AM
Moby thinks the flu is worse than the coronavirus.

Silly BullyB is making stuff up, AGAIN...

You really DO have a bad habit.


Stats for this virus are always behind reality and your quoting a state that is hardly honest about ANYTHING ...and keeps a close tab on folks venturing too far from the beaten track is risible.

How many people have died from the virus outside China...from nations that can be relied on to be trying to be accurate?

Last time *I* checked Thailand was an Asian country and perhaps you can tell us of the 'restrictions' the US has put on people returning from other Asian nations?


'Thank you'

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 13, 2020, 07:13:03 AM

Stats for this virus are always behind reality and your quoting a state that is hardly honest about ANYTHING ...and keeps a close tab on folks venturing too far from the beaten track is risible. 

That is even more reason to doubt whether China has this virulence under control. 

Quote
How many people have died from the virus outside China...from nations that can be relied on to be trying to be accurate?

On the time scale, other countries are behind  China.  Wait 3-4 weeks. 


It is more likely than not that the US will avoid an epidemic.   However, it is prudent and reasonable to assume some infected people entered the US undetected.  In 3-4 weeks we can be sure. 

Until then if I were travelling in emerging Asia I would be somewhat cautious (avoid crowds, wash hands frequently, never touch the face especially the nose, no raw food).  Yes, a mask is not needed except to protect others if one gets flu symptoms.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 13, 2020, 07:41:12 AM
That is even more reason to doubt whether China has this virulence under control. 


I was referring to North Korea ..;)   Worse than China re paranoia ?


On the time scale, other countries are behind  China.  Wait 3-4 weeks. 

Hardly - given western folks have been coming and going from the region of China most effected ( Christmas ./ New Year) when it is possible ( probable) that Chinese Officialdom were penalising  / berating those claiming there was a problem.

The virus was out earlier and given the 14 day incubation time being banded about ..



It is more likely than not that the US will avoid an epidemic.   However, it is prudent and reasonable to assume some infected people entered the US undetected.  In 3-4 weeks we can be sure. 


You assume the folks who may have already imported it show symptoms worthy of worry ... and are quarantined

Until then if I were travelling in emerging Asia I would be somewhat cautious (avoid crowds, wash hands frequently, never touch the face especially the nose, no raw food). 

Unless you grow your own food and live in the wilderness - that seems impossible ?





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 13, 2020, 08:47:31 AM
How many people have died from the virus outside China...from nations that can be relied on to be trying to be accurate?


Each nation with citizens are putting their best doctors and scientists on the very few that are infected. They get the best care, immunity boosters, help with breathing and medicine to regulate temperature. The are doing their best to learn about the virus and keep the handful of people alive. Now if they let it get out of control and have 60,000 infected, not everybody will get the best medical staff, treatment, and drugs to beat the virus.

When someone gets a flu virus, they can beat it at home or visit a below average doctor in a small clinic to get told to get rest and get prescribed a few common drugs to regulate temperature and relieve symptoms. An average person with the flu doesn't need the best of the best to beat it.
Title: Re: Covind-19
Post by: msmob on February 13, 2020, 09:24:11 AM
Each nation with citizens are putting their best doctors and scientists on the very few that are infected. They get the best care, immunity boosters, help with breathing and medicine to regulate temperature. The are doing their best to learn about the virus and keep the handful of people alive. Now if they let it get out of control and have 60,000 infected, not everybody will get the best medical staff, treatment, and drugs to beat the virus.

Are you forbidden or advised NOT to visit Asian nations - other than China, yet  ? 



When someone gets a flu virus, they can beat it at home or visit a below average doctor in a small clinic to get told to get rest and get prescribed a few common drugs to regulate temperature and relieve symptoms. An average person with the flu doesn't need the best of the best to beat it.

Do you know the 'average' person needs help to survive Covind-19 ?  You DO realise some had it and did not realise they had it, right ?

Er, when someone gets the 'flu, now - they are MORE  likely to be the below average intellect sort running to  a competent Doctor - because of the fascination of this outbreak by the Tabloid reading Silly BillyB's  - despite the advice to stay at home..


Now, you are knocking some Doctors ?   Do you have many incompetent Doctors over there ... I somehow doubt it ...


Just stay indoors ... grow your own food and shun friends and neighbours with colds ..   Write bollox on the net ..  You'll be fine












Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 13, 2020, 10:35:17 AM

Due to public pressure based off poor government handling of the virus, China fired high level officials and replaced them. Although they increased the infected and death count by a huge jump with the new management's blessing, they're still lying.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-reports-spike-in-virus-cases-with-new-way-of-counting/ar-BBZWN53?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 13, 2020, 10:42:19 AM
Sighs

Nothing in BillyB's link suggests the Chinese are 'lying', now.

The spike...as clearly explained, is the criteria to confirm cases is looser and swifter.

Can BillyB advise if any western nation has banned travel to other Asian countries?....







Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 13, 2020, 11:22:12 AM
Nothing in BillyB's link suggests the Chinese are 'lying', now.


The Chinese don't suggest they lie yet the reason they give for the low numbers that were previously reported is because the old methods they've used to count were to blame. You can trust their new method to count infections and deaths if you want but I don't trust them. Apparently a lot of people died already and it was documented something else killed them but it's too late to go through their cremated ashes to do another autopsy.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 13, 2020, 02:25:35 PM
The Chinese don't suggest they lie yet the reason they give for the low numbers that were previously reported is because the old methods they've used to count were to blame. You can trust their new method to count infections and deaths if you want but I don't trust them. Apparently a lot of people died already and it was documented something else killed them but it's too late to go through their cremated ashes to do another autopsy.

I deal with Chinese people re designs, production, delivery and find them to be generally very efficient and organised...

The problem is the folk who run things like Communists do ...

Our stuff is taking a DAY longer than normal -  I don't know if we'll be delayed re any components that might come from effected areas ....

I posted about the spike and WHY it was occurring before you mentioned it - while you slept ... but thanks for the confirmation






Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 14, 2020, 08:07:03 PM

3 days ago the South China Morning Post suspected 500 medical workers are infected and a possible 600 more are infected.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050077/least-500-wuhan-medical-staff-infected-coronavirus

Today, for the first time ever, China puts out a statement that over 1700 of their medical workers are infected. That number is worse than the rumors. Gross negligence of the management putting medical workers lives in jeopardy by not giving them the protective gear they need.

http://www.businessinsider.com/healthcare-workers-getting-coronavirus-500-infected-2020-2
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 15, 2020, 12:22:07 AM
Silly BillyB

You have this BAD habit of making assertions that you cannot know about - yet are also v.quick to tell others they shouldn't trust what they hear from untraceable sources ..

If this virus comes to the UK / US in serious numbers - do you think 'we' have enough 'hazsuits et al ' to cope for long ? Wasn't China asking for help with supplies?








Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 15, 2020, 09:18:24 AM
You have this BAD habit of making assertions that you cannot know about - yet are also v.quick to tell others they shouldn't trust what they hear from untraceable sources ..


We're dealing with a Communist country, not yours or mine. The level of trust in ones government varies. Do you trust North Korea they have ZERO infections? When Chinese people say the government stated infection and death rate were low, they were right after China put out an official statement a couple of days ago. When people say lots of medical workers don't have enough protective gear and are getting infected, they were more than right after China put out an official statement yesterday. Where were they wrong? China is still probably low with their estimates of those infected and dead.


If this virus comes to the UK / US in serious numbers - do you think 'we' have enough 'hazsuits et al ' to cope for long ?


Our Western doctors would evaluate a patient and sound an alarm without getting silenced and this virus won't infect in large numbers. Our hospitals have protocols for dealing with new, unknown viruses and diseases and will take appropriate action to protect the most important people to defeating it. Or they can risk massive lawsuits. Unfortunately the families of the medical workers sacrificed in China aren't as lucky in making their hospitals and government accountable.


Wasn't China asking for help with supplies?


Of course they asked for help and Western nations have given help. America pledged up to 100 million dollars in aid but China has refused the help of medical and scientific experts. That has led to Trump criticizing China. China does want to beat the virus but they will not allow people in who will tell the truth about what they seen.

http://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482096-us-pledges-100-million-to-help-fight-coronavirus

When China dealt with the bird and swine flus, they killed millions of animals. When an outbreak happens, the FIRST thing you do is find the source and eliminate the source which will help with reducing numbers of infections and preventing the outbreak from happening again. China State news put out rumors the source was from a meat market. Has the government gone in and identified an animal that carried it yet and eliminated it's stock? NO. There has not been a single animal that was diagnosed as a carrier of this virus.

A few years ago, experts didn't like the idea of China creating a laboratory to house the worlds most deadliest diseases in Wuhan. They didn't think China would be able to stop the escape of a deadly virus based off knowledge of their construction and handling practices of those viruses. Has China put out a statement confirming the new coronavirus was never housed in their facility? Here's a 2017 article about the Wuhan lab.

http://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 15, 2020, 10:46:36 AM
Silly BillyB,

You 'respond' by taking any point and making it a question - without dealing WITH the point ..

Try dealing with the points made ... not making your own obfuscation and diversions


Did the Chinese request help? - medical supplies ....YES..


If this virus comes to the UK / US in serious numbers - do you think 'we' have enough 'hazsuits et al ' to cope for long ?   Given the UK already has a shortage of face masks for use in Dental practices  - IF our news is  to be believed  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51493492  I think you know - really - than the risks of getting the infection are GREATER for medical staff in China - it would be the same anywhere else..



I have NO idea about the source of the virus .. Do you know the 'source' of Ebola or HIV?  Do you understand virus' mutate ?

You are BIG in conspiracy theories ..  if you think the Chinese govt labs have unwittingly infected it's people .. I suspect that - even in China - it'll get out ..

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 15, 2020, 11:24:19 AM
Do you know the 'source' of Ebola or HIV?  Do you understand virus' mutate ?


Patient one of the Ebola virus was bitten by a bat. HIV is in primates. Education put out to stop eating them or whatever touching them sexually. It's important to find the source. China has not disclosed the source. Mutations don't matter. Scientist can figure out how the flu virus will mutate the next season to create a vaccine before it happens. They know how the virus was before and can predict how it will be in the future. Unfortunately they have not figured out a way to beat the coronavirus.

  if you think the Chinese govt labs have unwittingly infected it's people .. I suspect that - even in China - it'll get out ..

Infectious diseases laboratories are specially built to treat everything leaving it. That includes air and sewer so to make sure nothing deadly gets out alive. The most likely case is a worker unknowingly got the virus and took it outside the lab. The way the Chinese government protect their medical workers against a deadly virus may give us a clue how they handle things elsewhere.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 15, 2020, 02:14:24 PM

Unless you grow your own food and live in the wilderness - that seems impossible ?


Not impossible. This virulence is not yet under control.  We should know more in about 2-3 weeks. 
Until then, one does not need to wear a hazmat suit nor avoid people, yet simple precautions seem prudent if travelling in Asia. 

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 15, 2020, 02:42:53 PM
Our Silly Billy's been a Googlin', and failing ...


Patient one of the Ebola virus was bitten by a bat.

INCORRECT

Scientists do not know where Ebola virus comes from. However, based on the nature of similar viruses, they believe the virus is animal-borne, with bats or nonhuman primates with bats or nonhuman primates (chimpanzees, apes, monkeys, etc.) being the most likely source.

Source? : 'Your' very own CDC


HIV is in primates.

CORRECT .. Again .. the CDC gives more info ..

So.. Only 50 percent ..


STILL with the wacko conspiracy theories ?

Infectious diseases laboratories are specially built to treat everything leaving it. That includes air and sewer so to make sure nothing deadly gets out alive. The most likely case is a worker unknowingly got the virus and took it outside the lab. The way the Chinese government protect their medical workers against a deadly virus may give us a clue how they handle things elsewhere.


You've been watching too many SciFi channel low budget movies ..
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 15, 2020, 04:03:46 PM
Scientists do not know where Ebola virus comes from. However, based on the nature of similar viruses, they believe the virus is animal-borne, with bats or nonhuman primates with bats or nonhuman primates (chimpanzees, apes, monkeys, etc.) being the most likely source.

Source? : 'Your' very own CDC


The CDC doesn't know where the virus came from but they know it's in certain animals and they can pinpoint the animal responsible for the outbreak. the 2014 outbreak came from bats as the first patient was bitten by one according to the CDC. When an outbreak happens, it's important to identify the source to prevent more infections from happening.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 16, 2020, 02:41:44 AM
The CDC doesn't know where the virus came from but they know it's in certain animals and they can pinpoint the animal responsible for the outbreak. the 2014 outbreak came from bats as the first patient was bitten by one according to the CDC. When an outbreak happens, it's important to identify the source to prevent more infections from happening.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html

Sighs..


The only 'batty' context is your failing to acknowledge you were wrong about Ebola...



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 17, 2020, 10:03:40 PM
China is getting very serious and now has 760 million people under quarantine.  This obviously will affect their economy.   Hopefully this draconian measure will stop the spread.   If not, the impact on the China economy will cascade to the global economy as supply chains are interrupted.   

China continues to report incomplete if not questionable data, meaning we have no scientific assessment of the trajectory of the endemic.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 17, 2020, 10:22:01 PM
760 million people under quarantine. 
   

That's one tenth the world's population under lockdown.

China continues to report incomplete if not questionable data, meaning we have no scientific assessment of the trajectory of the endemic.   


Your original John Hopkins link shows some Chinese provinces having around 500 recoveries and zero deaths. The death toll is under reported. We know how fast this virus can spread. 454 people are infected on a cruise ship after spending a short time together. That's over 10% of the passengers.

This obviously will affect their economy.   
   

It will affect our economy too. Movie industry expects to lose a billion dollars since nearly all of the 70,000 Chinese movie theaters are closed.

http://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/no-time-die-chinese-premiere-195232525.html

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 18, 2020, 12:46:53 AM
I deal with Chinese people re designs, production, delivery and find them to be generally very efficient and organised...

The problem is the folk who run things like Communists do ...

Our stuff is taking a DAY longer than normal -  I don't know if we'll be delayed re any components that might come from effected areas ....



The order for making our PCBs and putting on the components has been slower than normal - as have responses for quotes .

However, the stuff is on it's way - via DHL - but  - interestingly - flying out of Hong Kong - not Shenzhen


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 19, 2020, 10:17:49 PM
Wang Zhonglin, the Wuhan’s new Communist party secretary, said that if a single new case was found after Wednesday, the district’s leaders would be held responsible.

Sounds like China is going to make sure the infection rate goes down. Reporting bad news is bad news for the reporter.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/19/coronavirus-outbreak-updates-coronavirus-live-updates-hubei-deaths-china-wuhan-outbreak-japan-diamond-princess-china-business-death-toll-latest-news
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 19, 2020, 10:51:11 PM
Sounds as if the Chinese and Russians have become rather desperate ..

From BillyB's  linked article :  ( PS - can you imagine - from a very 'leftie' UK journal - according to 'experts'..)

"Russia halted most air traffic to China, suspended all trains to China and North Korea, and temporarily stopped issuing work visas to Chinese citizens. Chinese students studying in Russia were told not to return until 1 March.

This month Russia’s prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, said Russia might start deporting foreigners infected with the virus."


How very caring ...




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 20, 2020, 07:04:50 AM
For the second time in a week China has changed its protocol for determining new cases.  I have not read the details, yet it seems the government will now differentiate between “suspected” and “confirmed” cases.   Confirmed cases would require lab tests, for which China's capacity and accuracy are constrained.

So again, we are unsure of the the trajectory of the endemic, i. e., whether it is coming under control. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 20, 2020, 07:35:47 PM
"Russia halted most air traffic to China, suspended all trains to China and North Korea,


North Korea reports no infections yet Russia doesn't trust them. If there is one country this virus can get out of control, it's North Korea. North Korea probably depends on China for most of their medical supplies but China rather use what's available for their own people first.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 21, 2020, 12:45:37 PM
Now cases of new infections are coming from countries like Iran and United Arab Emirates...Even recent arrivals to Ukraine from China had even cause a small violent protest in the streets of Kyiv.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/hysteria-coronavirus-sparks-violent-protests-ukraine/story?id=69124337
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 21, 2020, 07:29:43 PM
More young medical professionals die. China's prisoners and prison guards infected. It's getting ugly.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/coronavirus-kills-young-wuhan-doctor-as-hundreds-infected-in-chinas-prisons/ar-BB10ebuj?ocid=spartanntp

In case of nuclear or natural disasters, China's leaders have a contingency plan to leave the country. US intelligence has picked up signals that there is talk of that could happen. China has finally allowed medical experts from WHO and America to help but they have been delayed and when they are allowed to enter China, they will not be allowed anywhere near Wuhan.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/with-information-from-china-scarce-us-spies-enlisted-to-track-coronavirus-173612656.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 21, 2020, 10:22:53 PM

Some believe this event can turn into a pandemic and 2/3rds of the world's population can get infected. Some people are carrying the virus for an extended period of time and not show any symptoms of illness as evident on the cruise ship. Without symptoms, they would not be quarantined past a certain amount of  days or at all and walk freely anywhere they want just as we do and while mingling with others, infect them.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/coronavirus-outbreak-edges-closer-to-pandemic/ar-BB10fJLZ?ocid=spartanntp

If you're into conspiracy theories, the doctor in the video in the link below has 3 Harvard degrees and many accomplishments and claims China stole a virus from a Canadian lab and took it to their lab in Wuhan. He doesn't believe China let the virus out intentionally though. He said bio warfare viruses are genetically modified to be stronger, live longer, infect easier, and harder to stop. Has China claimed they found the animal or group of animals that were carriers of this new coronavirus yet? If not, the guy may be right.

http://www.transcend.org/tms/2020/02/francis-boyle-wuhan-coronavirus-is-an-offensive-biological-warfare-weapon/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 22, 2020, 01:33:30 AM
Some of our members ARE into 'conspiracy theories'  ..

A question for them ...

Why 'manufacture' a virus with a low kill rate and no vaccine ?

How would you expect the Chinese to trace an animal source when other earlier viral epidemics haven't been traced back to 'ground zero' ?

Not many folks know that HIV may have been around nearly 200 years ..


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 22, 2020, 07:55:19 PM
Why 'manufacture' a virus with a low kill rate and no vaccine ?


Who told you the new coronavirus has a low kill rate? China?

Even if a biological weapons have a low kill rate, it's still an effective weapon. You do not understand warfare. Killing isn't the only way to take a soldier off the battlefield. Google "toe popper". It's a cheap land mine that isn't designed to kill but destroy a foot. When a soldier has his foot damaged, it takes at least two other soldiers to carry him back to camp which means at least three soldiers are out of the fight. If soldiers are getting the flu, they are in no shape to fight and will infect other soldiers to make them in no shape to fight.

Why no vaccine? If it's easy to create a vaccine, it's easy for the enemy to create a vaccine to defeat the biological weapon. Genetically modified biological weapons are designed not to be easily defeated.

How would you expect the Chinese to trace an animal source when other earlier viral epidemics haven't been traced back to 'ground zero' ?


Yes, animal meat was blamed. China says the source came from an illegal meat market yet they haven't identified the meat. Go figure. Stupid people believe them. China shut down the meat market. They can take all meat and check for the virus at the lab next door.

Not many folks know that HIV may have been around nearly 200 years ..


May? HIV has or hasn't been around for nearly 200 years. Saying "may" sounds like you and your source don't know the truth.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 22, 2020, 10:57:02 PM
Who told you the new coronavirus has a low kill rate? China?

How many people have died from the virus outside China - in comparison to those infected ? 

WHO data from 22nd Feb

Outside of China
1402 confirmed (202 new)
 28 countries (2 new)
 11 deaths (3 new)



So, are WHO 'making it up' ..?


Ri-ight, so now BillyB has demonstrated yet another of his contentions has been busted - rather than simply admitting his howler .. he compounds his stupidity





Even if a biological weapons have a low kill rate, it's still an effective weapon.

Only if you have a defence ( vaccine) or some way to ensure your own side don't get infected ...


You do not understand warfare.

You've already proven YOU do not understand biology, so you try to deflect with more bollox ? !


Killing isn't the only way to take a soldier off the battlefield. Google "toe popper". It's a cheap land mine that isn't designed to kill but destroy a foot. When a soldier has his foot damaged, it takes at least two other soldiers to carry him back to camp which means at least three soldiers are out of the fight. If soldiers are getting the flu, they are in no shape to fight and will infect other soldiers to make them in no shape to fight.


Nothing to do with COVID-19 - pure obfuscation ..


Now, Silly BillyB posts stupid about vaccines....bearing in mind the mutation capabilities of this type of virus ...hence it NOT being likely to be the type used as a bio weapon...

 



Why no vaccine? If it's easy to create a vaccine, it's easy for the enemy to create a vaccine to defeat the biological weapon. Genetically modified biological weapons are designed not to be easily defeated.

Yes, animal meat was blamed. China says the source came from an illegal meat market yet they haven't identified the meat. Go figure. Stupid people believe them. China shut down the meat market. They can take all meat and check for the virus at the lab next door.

May? HIV has or hasn't been around for nearly 200 years. Saying "may" sounds like you and your source don't know the truth.

Yes, may .. because no-one can be certain - as records / capabilities of medicine then did not allow fr accurate records ..

You see, BillyB, nothing in this field of biology is 'black and white' ..

You KEEP on proving what you're learning is from Google, rather than having studied biology to an advanced level ..



MAY BE China has inadvertently released this virus upon the population from a bio-weapon facility and isn't being truthful ... but we'd be hearing such a suggestion from Chinese dissidents and ex-pats, right ?







Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 22, 2020, 11:26:46 PM
How many people have died from the virus outside China - in comparison to those infected ? 
WHO date from 22nd Feb

Outside of China
1402 confirmed (202 new)
 28 countries (2 new)
 11 deaths (3 new)

So, are WHO 'making it up' ..?

John Hopkins has the data reported from each country and 17 people outside of China has died. 187 people outside of China have recovered. 1 out of every 11 people die or just over 9% of the people will die and these first cases have the best doctors and treatments available. If 70,000 people were infected, the best medical professionals and facilities would not be available to all infected. I do not count the infected cases into the fatality rate because it is unknown what side of the fence the infected will fall on at the end of their battle with the virus.

9% death rate is a lot worse than the common flu which has a .1% death rate. 1 out of 11 dying is a lot worse than 1 out of a 1000 dying. Do you understand the math and the reason WHO is now claiming this can turn into a pandemic? 

Now some Chinese provinces have over a 700 recovery rate with only 1 person dying while the Hubei province which includes the city of Wuhan has 6.5 people recovering for every person dying. 700 to 1 recovery to death ratio vs 6.5 to 1 recovery to death ratio means Chinese people in some provinces have super immunity systems compared to Chinese in other provinces or China is lying in some, most or all of their provinces reporting.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Only if you have a defence ( vaccine) or some way to ensure your own side don't get infected


Biological weapons get invented before any cure does. Does that not make sense to you? Nations who are into making biological weapons don't expect them to escape onto their own people so any time spent on making a cure comes later.


You've already proven YOU do not understand biology,

You see, BillyB, nothing in this field of biology is 'black and white' ..

You KEEP on proving what you're learning is from Google, rather than having studied biology to an advanced level ..


What biology expert in this world that you rely on that has got this coronavirus all figured out? Yourself? Because you are a carrier of a virus which makes you the expert on viruses?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 23, 2020, 01:52:36 AM
John Hopkins has the data reported from each country and 17 people outside of China has died. 187 people outside of China have recovered.

WHO 'data' - I put the parenthesis as the data is only as reliable as the source .. However, I see little reason to doubt the figures, overall

OUTSIDE CHINA:

Deaths v infected 11 / 1402  less than 1 percent


CHINA

2348 / 77794  3 percent


These figures are based over a long time and become more realistic with every day - in percentile terms )




As we can see below, Billy B needs to go back to school re his arithmetic..





 1 out of every 11 people die or just over 9% of the people will die and these first cases have the best doctors and treatments available. If 70,000 people were infected, the best medical professionals and facilities would not be available to all infected. I do not count the infected cases into the fatality rate because it is unknown what side of the fence the infected will fall on at the end of their battle with the virus.

9% death rate is a lot worse than the common flu which has a .1% death rate. 1 out of 11 dying is a lot worse than 1 out of a 1000 dying. Do you understand the math and the reason WHO is now claiming this can turn into a pandemic? 

Now some Chinese provinces have over a 700 recovery rate with only 1 person dying while the Hubei province which includes the city of Wuhan has 6.5 people recovering for every person dying. 700 to 1 recovery to death ratio vs 6.5 to 1 recovery to death ratio means Chinese people in some provinces have super immunity systems compared to Chinese in other provinces or China is lying in some, most or all of their provinces reporting.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Biological weapons get invented before any cure does. Does that not make sense to you? Nations who are into making biological weapons don't expect them to escape onto their own people so any time spent on making a cure comes later.


What biology expert in this world that you rely on that has got this coronavirus all figured out? Yourself? Because you are a carrier of a virus which makes you the expert on viruses?

Methinks you may be getting a little too upset to reason, anymore ..

MANY of us carry virus and infect people knowingly or unknowingly .. the subject here is COVID-19 and your wacko theories




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 23, 2020, 08:07:03 AM


OUTSIDE CHINA:

Deaths v infected 11 / 1402  less than 1 percent


CHINA

2348 / 77794  3 percent


These figures are based over a long time and become more realistic with every day - in percentile terms )


Apples and oranges.

Those who die did not die quickly, and instead succumb after a week or more from first becoming ill.   The cases of infection outside China are newer than Wuhan, and as such fewer deaths would be expected. 

Its complicated, many factors are at play, and its early.  Any conclusions are premature.  WHO is not making any conclusions about the trajectory of the virulence, much less fatality, etc.       
       
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 23, 2020, 10:04:48 AM

Deaths v infected 11 / 1402  less than 1 percent


CHINA

2348 / 77794  3 percent



Survival rate isn't deaths v infected, it's deaths v recovered. For some reason you and many journalists out there just lumped tens of thousands of people who are currently infected into the recovery camp and try to tell everybody it's not much worse than the common flu. It would be like me trying to lump all the infected into dead camp to show everybody how deadly this virus is. You don't know if those infected will remain alive or dead after their battle with the virus. I keep telling you that but you don't get it. If you currently are battling lung cancer, do you lump yourself into the lung cancer survivor category or the lump you into the group of people who lost the battle with lung cancer? You won't know until the battle is over. Over 77k people worldwide is infected with the virus but you already lumped them into the survivor category to fit your narrative that there is a high survival rate. Fake news.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 23, 2020, 10:23:43 AM
More Silly BillyB obfuscation ..


Survival rate isn't deaths v infected, it's deaths v recovered. For some reason you and many journalists out there just lumped tens of thousands of people who are currently infected into the recovery camp and try to tell everybody it's not much worse than the common flu. It would be like me trying to lump all the infected into dead camp to show everybody how deadly this virus is. You don't know if those infected will remain alive or dead after their battle with the virus. I keep telling you that but you don't get it. If you currently are battling lung cancer, do you lump yourself into the lung cancer survivor category or the lump you into the group of people who lost the battle with lung cancer? You won't know until the battle is over. Over 77k people worldwide is infected with the virus but you already lumped them into the survivor category to fit your narrative that there is a high survival rate. Fake news.

'Fake news' is what you've been suggesting re wacko theories as to the origin of the outbreak

How many days has WHO been publishing figures?

Is the death rate percentage constant? ... YES





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 23, 2020, 05:03:45 PM
My wife and I are planning a travel holiday this spring.  I really like Hawaii,  yet I had this nagging concern that if COVID 19 continued to spread, Hawaii would likely become a "hot spot"  due to much of its tourism originating from Asia.  I would not fear becoming ill as much as getting caught up in travel bans and other quarantine measures.   

So we talked about Europe.  Today, I read the news,  "Italy says coronavirus cases spiked from three to 132 in matter of days; largest outbreak outside of Asia."  I understand travel restrictions are being considered. 

Our travel holiday planning is now on hold.  First time in my life this has happened.  Hopefully, the world's health organizations turn the corner soon on this serious virus.   If not, we will be hit far harder than travel restrictions  - namely the economy. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 23, 2020, 05:18:01 PM
My wife and I are planning a travel holiday this spring.  I really like Hawaii,  yet I had this nagging concern that if COVID 19 continued to spread, Hawaii would likely become a "hot spot"  due to much of its tourism originating from Asia.  I would not fear becoming ill as much as getting caught up in travel bans and other quarantine measures.   


Most Asians visit Honolulu and Waikiki. Go to a resort to avoid most Asians. For your vacation, choose a location that is hot. The virus doesn't survive very long when exposed to heat and sun so less chance for people living in hot climates to get infected. I just flew on airplanes a few weeks ago. Less than 5 people wore masks at each of the 4 different American airports I've walked through. At this time, you still have a better chance to win the lottery than get the virus in America.

Our travel holiday planning is now on hold.  First time in my life this has happened. 


Have you ever thought about vacationing in Florida? You get to stay home, avoid the virus elsewhere, and have your vacation too. Win win.


Hopefully, the world's health organizations turn the corner soon on this serious virus.   


WHO has been asking nations to step up their participation. WHO says not enough is being done. WHO doesn't want to criticize China but an expert said there is massive under reporting of deaths and infections in China. Why would China lock down hundreds of millions of people and shut down 90% of their economy to save a few lives? They are trying to save a lot more than a few lives.


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 24, 2020, 02:16:23 AM
Gator,

I'm off to Georgia, (Maxx' Georgia) and Turkey ..

The thought of being stuck out there is not comforting - but bus lif must go on ..

SC is in Thailand - and so far she is not threatened with being quarantined on her return

Your govt has been rather better in re-repatriating trapped guests on Cruise liners than - say - the Brits


You are a US Citizen .. You live in Florida - do you need a Beach holiday ?   What about Alaska ?;))




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 24, 2020, 06:50:58 AM

You are a US Citizen .. You live in Florida - do you need a Beach holiday ?   What about Alaska ?;))

Hawaii is more than beaches, much more. 

Living in Florida, more than an hour on the beach becomes tedious.  There is much to see in Florida; however, we have already seen it all including the off-the-beaten-path sites, e. g. Frank Lloyd Wright's one and only designed college campus and a rattlesnake festival (where tattoos outnumber teeth  :D).

Alaska is similar to Russia except for the coast.     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 24, 2020, 06:59:46 AM
The outbreak in Italy has occurred in several small towns in the Milan area, but not in Milan itself.  Health officials have yet to identify "patient zero."   Inexplicable.  Worse, such pattern has the makings of a pandemic!!!!

RWD's Sandro resides in Milan.  We wish the best for him and his city-county neighbors.    Maybe Sandro has some info.  I understand Milan schools have been closed. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: SANDRO43 on February 24, 2020, 08:44:28 AM
RWD's Sandro resides in Milan.  We wish the best for him and his city-county neighbors.
Thanks for your concern, no alarms until a few days ago :(.
Quote
Maybe Sandro has some info.  I understand Milan schools have been closed
For a week initially as a precaution, also other places where many people congregate like cinemas, theatres, museums, discoes, etc. This is also our Carnival week, and the worst hit financially will be Venice.

IINM only 3 fatal victims so far, including a woman already in hospital for a cancer, but what is more worrying is that the number of infected people is on the rise (200+, blue pins below). All cases, except the the fatality near Padua at right, involved trips to China.

(http://www.ilpost.it/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/contagi-italia-1.png)

The most affected areas (red pins above) have been cordoned off, no access or departures allowed. Additional military barracks are being prepared to receive quarantined persons.

Superstition maintains that a leap year brings bad luck, let's hope it's not too true for 2020 :-\.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 24, 2020, 08:57:09 AM
All cases, except the the fatality near Padua at right, involved trips to China.

Thanks for the information.  Our news had not made the  connection with China travel.     


Wash those hands!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: SANDRO43 on February 24, 2020, 10:07:20 AM
Wash those hands!
I usually do :D.

Our bad luck was that 3 people went to a hospital complaining of breathing difficulties BEFORE anything was known about the Chinese epidemic. Most infected are from the staff and patients of those hospitals :(.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on February 24, 2020, 10:14:59 AM
Hawaii is more than beaches, much more. 

Living in Florida, more than an hour on the beach becomes tedious.  There is much to see in Florida; however, we have already seen it all including the off-the-beaten-path sites, e. g. Frank Lloyd Wright's one and only designed college campus and a rattlesnake festival (where tattoos outnumber teeth  :D).

Alaska is similar to Russia except for the coast.     

Phil, I can highly recommend to you the trip that Ochka and I took in May 2014.
We flew to Denver.  Rented a 28' RV from Cruise America for 28 days.
Drove to and visited, in order:
Colorado Springs, Santa Fe, Taos, (desolate drive across northern Arizona),Grand Canyon, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Sequoia, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Francisco, Lake Tahoe, (desolate drive across central Nevada on 50 and down 93), Zion Nat'l Park, Bryce Canyon, Capital Reef, Canyonland, Arches Nat'l Park, Golden, Denver.

The May timing meant we beat most of the heavy tourist season.  Was a little chilly in some place, and we hit LA when they experienced very unusual 100 degree temperatures for a few days.

The big advantage of this trip was that Ochka got to see more in 28 days than typically possible.
Disadvantage was we couldn't stay in any one place very long, even if we wanted to.
But of course, can always go back to a particular place later for a more extended visit.

A very big advantage for those of us of a certain age.  The toilet for peeing is always there.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 24, 2020, 10:23:56 AM

Our bad luck was that 3 people went to a hospital complaining of breathing difficulties BEFORE anything was known about the Chinese epidemic. Most infected are from the staff and patients of those hospitals :(.

Hospital or hospitals?  The latter would explain the wide spread, yet all within commuting distance of  hospitals. 

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 24, 2020, 10:27:59 AM
ML, that was a heck of a trip.  It is like a lifetime of travel in 28 days.

Galina likes the West.  On four separate trips we have visited Colorado Rocky Mountains, Santa Fe, San Francisco and SoCal-LV.   

We were thinking about a long motor trip in the northern Rockies looking for a possible summer home.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on February 24, 2020, 10:50:06 AM
We were thinking about a long motor trip in the northern Rockies looking for a possible summer home.

Give some thought to northern Michigan for great summer living.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: SANDRO43 on February 24, 2020, 10:57:17 AM
Hospital or hospitals?  The latter would explain the wide spread, yet all within commuting distance of  hospitals.
2 hospitals, 1 in Milan and 1 south of it.

I went to my usual supermarket a couple of hours ago: crowded by too many people buying too much stuff, as if preparing for a long siege :(.  Maybe a panic reaction to the bad news this last Sunday.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 24, 2020, 04:26:17 PM
RWD's Sandro resides in Milan.  We wish the best for him and his city-county neighbors.   


Disaster has struck Milan. Nobody is allowed to attend the Armani fashion show but the show will go on.

http://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/milan-fashion-week-carries-amid-172557268.html

Some experts say to start buying food that can last up to a 60 day quarantine in case the virus comes to your neighborhood. Better to do it sooner than later when panic happens and food lines are long.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 24, 2020, 04:37:59 PM

Virus costing Americans trillions.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/stocks-down-as-coronavirus-spreads-in-europe-and-asia/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 24, 2020, 04:53:24 PM
We were thinking about a long motor trip in the northern Rockies looking for a possible summer home.

Give some thought to northern Michigan for great summer living.

Nah...look into Lake Tahoe on Nevada side instead.

http://www.visitrenotahoe.com/discover-reno-tahoe/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: SANDRO43 on February 24, 2020, 06:28:28 PM
Some experts say to start buying food that can last up to a 60 day quarantine in case the virus comes to your neighborhood. Better to do it sooner than later when panic happens and food lines are long.
I wonder who your "experts" are :-\.

Corona has an incubation period from initial contagion of about 2 weeks, which is also the current quarantine period. After that, one is either dismissed as several already have, or retained to prevent further spreading and monitor developments: there have also been many cases of infected people showing spontaneous remissions.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 24, 2020, 08:52:19 PM
I wonder who your "experts" are :-\.

Corona has an incubation period from initial contagion of about 2 weeks, which is also the current quarantine period. After that, one is either dismissed as several already have, or retained to prevent further spreading and monitor developments: there have also been many cases of infected people showing spontaneous remissions.

No need for experts, just common sense. People who are suspected or actually infected get quarantined by governments a minimum 30 days. If your entire city is quarantined, your city will be quarantined longer than 30 days. Those people infected or suspected of being infected aren't all going to be discovered at the same time and discharged at the same time at the end of 30 days with your city announcing it's free of the virus. After some people are found to be infected, two weeks later some the people they infected will be discovered and two weeks later more people will be discovered. Stocking your home with 60 days food is not unreasonable. Stock it with less, you'll be forced to go out more often to buy more food interacting with other people.

If you want an expert giving advice to stock up with 60 days food, here's one who has a PhD and expert on infectious diseases.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J028m1yjD70&feature=emb_logo
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on February 24, 2020, 10:04:32 PM
My wife and I are planning a travel holiday this spring.  I really like Hawaii,  yet I had this nagging concern that if COVID 19 continued to spread, Hawaii would likely become a "hot spot"  due to much of its tourism originating from Asia.  I would not fear becoming ill as much as getting caught up in travel bans and other quarantine measures.   

odd, id be ,ore concered about  illness than quarantine    there seems to be a genuine risk of illness popping up almost anywhere
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 24, 2020, 10:42:57 PM

South Korea reports 893 people infected. North Korea doesn't have anybody infected yet they are quarantining new visitors for 30 days. I suggest making your next vacation to North Korea, the safest place on earth because viruses and other bad things don't like to cross that border. Go cheap, schedule for a short visit and North Korea will upgrade you to a 30 day virus free vacation with free room and board.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korea-reportedly-quarantines-380-foreigners-in-bid-to-prevent-coronavirus-outbreak/ar-BB10jFC7?ocid=spartanntp#image=BBZaM5o|3
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 25, 2020, 09:44:20 PM
The US has a limited capacity to test for COVID-19. 

"South Korea, the site of the worst outbreak outside of China, has run more than 35,000 coronavirus tests. The United States has tested just 426 people for the virus, not including people who have returned to the country on evacuation flights."

   http://www.jubakpicks.com/market-decides-coronavirus-outbreak-is-no-time-for-a-bounce/

Many of CDC test kits sent out 2 weeks ago contained expired chemicals and could not be used.  A new testing method is to be piloted later this week in 5 cities, yet CDC has not firmly committed to the time schedule. 

Meanwhile few people tested as having the flu can be tested for COVID-19. The symptoms manifested for COVID-19 mirror some symptoms of normal flu - fever, cough and breathing problems.  Unless the person recently traveled to China or had been in contact with an infected person, the COVID-test is not performed.     

We should expect the disease to spread more in the US.   Hence, the concern about the global economy and the US economy is real. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 25, 2020, 09:57:42 PM
it's a good thing Trump cut the CDC and NIH, you wouldn't want the deep state involved in any of this, now would ya?
buncha damned socialists, all these gummit people

it's actually going to be far worse than what you think

there's NEVER going to be a vaccine for this
there is no anti-viral that works on this, yet...

eventually, most of us are going to be infected
and 1-2% of us will die
and then...
the financial fallout is going to get steeper
the bond market will be next...
it could get as bad as 2007 later this year....

and I am SO relieved that we have the greatest president in the history of the universe now!!!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 25, 2020, 10:21:13 PM

the financial fallout is going to get steeper

Yes.  Not a time to buy the dips. 

Quote
the bond market will be next...

Ha Ha!  Bonds have increased in value, with the interest rate on the 10-yr bond the lowest in history. 


Quote
it could get as bad as 2007 later this year....

Nope, entirely different because unlike 2008 the financial system so far is not at risk.   

Monday's dip was not just about COVID-19 outside of China.  Monday started with the healthcare stocks taking a big hit because of Bernie's success in NV, creating the negative thought that he with his wacky ideas could  actually be elected.  If you want to see the stock market crash, elect Bernie. 

Today was continuation of COVID-19 selloff. Which stocks were hit the hardest - the overpriced momentum stocks.  They are coming back to earth. 
 

Quote
...and I am SO relieved that we have the greatest president in the history of the universe now!!!

Isn't it great.  Just G-R-E-A-T!!!!!!!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 25, 2020, 10:50:45 PM

eventually, most of us are going to be infected
and 1-2% of us will die


Italy reports they have 322 people infected. They report 11 people finished their battle with the virus. 1 person fully recovered. The other 10 died.

The cruise ship reports they currently have 691 people infected and 3 people finished their battle with the virus and all 3 died.

Iran reports they currently have 95 people infected and 16 people finished their battle with the virus and all 16 died.

South Korea reports they have 1146 people infected and 32 finished their battle with the virus. 22 made a full recovery and 10 died.

I don't trust Chinese reporting. Their numbers imply there are 10 recoveries for every one death. Almost 10% or 1 out of 11 people die from this virus according to China so far. In comparison 1 out of 1000 people die from the flu.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 26, 2020, 08:20:54 AM
This is nature sorting itself out and finding balance. It's been long overdue.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 26, 2020, 09:02:28 AM
This is nature sorting itself out and finding balance. It's been long overdue.

Natural selection?  Within the human species?  Or  humans vs. viruses?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 26, 2020, 09:54:09 AM
Natural selection?  Within the human species?  Or  humans vs. viruses?

Everything/one.

I am just often reminded that any 'being' in a given ecological environment have their owns means not only to propagate its kind, but also hold in check others from dominance. Always the persistence of balance. Virus and bacteria, as well as everything else - as studies have shown, mutate and evolve. Always that constant search for balance and preservation.

BTW, it isn't a coincidence that this latest virus, as with the recent few, originates from China. I'm sure during your travels in Asia and the southeast, you've laid witness to what is called - 'wet markets', snake alleys, etc..where all sort of caged live (indigenous) animals are on display/menu for the offering.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 26, 2020, 02:50:13 PM
This is nature sorting itself out and finding balance. It's been long overdue.

We may not be happy with the sorting out after it’s done. The very young and very old are most vulnerable due to weaker or underdeveloped lungs. Our parents and children are likely to die. A few thirtysomething-year-old Chinese doctors have already died. Apparently the virus doesn’t value intelligent people. Those who are physically superior with stronger immune systems such as dumb jocks may be the ones left standing.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 26, 2020, 06:13:26 PM
this is an RNA virus, this makes it very unlikely there will ever be a vaccine...
also no currently known anti-virals have been effective
AND...
this is a FAST mutating virus, after all this is just another variant of SARS
SARS was completely unknown to science just 20 yr ago...
what might this virus be like even 5 years from now?
odds are it will be even more deadly than it is today with the more generations that it breeds in a human population
also this means this virus is likely to be re-transmissible like a cold or flu
so if you survive it one year, you might still get next year's strain...
 

China's GDP is going to drop 10% this quarter, this will ripple around the globe
the bond market will be the next financial market to suffer a major drop but with more consequence that the stock market

we are at the beginning...
of when the world becomes a giant empty ghost town
you will hear it cracking before it breaks

pretty good chance that someone who reads this post
will get the virus in the next 5 years
maybe even most of us

good luck everybody!


 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 26, 2020, 08:59:33 PM
Italy reports they have 322 people infected. They report 11 people finished their battle with the virus. 1 person fully recovered. The other 10 died.

The cruise ship reports they currently have 691 people infected and 3 people finished their battle with the virus and all 3 died.

Iran reports they currently have 95 people infected and 16 people finished their battle with the virus and all 16 died.

South Korea reports they have 1146 people infected and 32 finished their battle with the virus. 22 made a full recovery and 10 died.

I don't trust Chinese reporting. Their numbers imply there are 10 recoveries for every one death. Almost 10% or 1 out of 11 people die from this virus according to China so far. In comparison 1 out of 1000 people die from the flu.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

BillyB

Are you simply trying to prove that you like to argue with yourself, with your 'stats' and 'mortality rates'?

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 26, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
BillyB

Are you simply trying to prove that you like to argue with yourself, with your 'stats' and 'mortality rates'?

I report the numbers the nations report. Not my stats. You're upset the numbers doesn't fit your narrative that this virus isn't much deadlier than the flu. China locked down 760 million people and 90% of their economy. China's neighbors completely closed their borders. Hello? Doesn't that tell you something? It's a good thing you're not in charge of a nation that is next door to China because you don't think what is going on is dangerous.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 26, 2020, 10:26:03 PM
this is an RNA virus, this makes it very unlikely there will ever be a vaccine...
also no currently known anti-virals have been effective


Sadly, you are probably right. This new coronavirus is similar to the viruses that cause the common cold but deadlier. There is no cure for the common cold although the human race tried hard to make one. If this new virus isn't beat, it may go around like the common cold forever and with higher rates of fatalities. SARS came from Civet cats and MERS came from camels. China says this virus came from a meat market yet they have not presented evidence of contaminated meat.

http://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 26, 2020, 10:48:38 PM
I report the numbers the nations report. Not my stats. You're upset the numbers doesn't fit your narrative that this virus isn't much deadlier than the flu. China locked down 760 million people and 90% of their economy. China's neighbors completely closed their borders. Hello? Doesn't that tell you something? It's a good thing you're not in charge of a nation that is next door to China because you don't think what is going on is dangerous.


You 'report' numbers like others have then tell THEM that THEIR stats are 'fake news'.....

Your response  simply reinforced my observation...

There is enough data out there to show this virus has killed approx 1 percent..

That is FAR less that earlier SARS or MERS or Ebola.

Flu kills 100's of thousands..


Now the concern is could it spread so readily that medical services are stretched, resulting in deaths due to other illnesses not being treated.









Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 27, 2020, 06:25:29 AM
BAD SIGN -  INEXPLICABLE CASE IN CALIFORNIA

COVID confirmed for one person with "....no travel history to an affected area and no known contact with a person previously diagnosed with COVID-19."   This could be the start of community spreading. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 27, 2020, 07:16:02 AM
BAD SIGN -  INEXPLICABLE CASE IN CALIFORNIA

COVID confirmed for one person with "....no travel history to an affected area and no known contact with a person previously diagnosed with COVID-19."   This could be the start of community spreading.

She probably bought something on eBay, or from those internet roving merchants, and finally received shipment. I haven’t yet read if this virus is transmitted via touch, airborne, or other means.

There was a report of a Korean Airlines flight attendant that hubbed at LAX who was later found to be infected with the virus. There doesn’t seem to be a follow up report on this story.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on February 27, 2020, 08:13:47 AM
She probably bought something on eBay, or from those internet roving merchants, and finally received shipment. I haven’t yet read if this virus is transmitted via touch, airborne, or other means.
 
if it transmits through ebay we are going to be in deep trouble.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on February 27, 2020, 08:17:01 AM
Italy reports they have 322 people infected. They report 11 people finished their battle with the virus. 1 person fully recovered. The other 10 died.

The cruise ship reports they currently have 691 people infected and 3 people finished their battle with the virus and all 3 died.

Iran reports they currently have 95 people infected and 16 people finished their battle with the virus and all 16 died.

South Korea reports they have 1146 people infected and 32 finished their battle with the virus. 22 made a full recovery and 10 died.

I don't trust Chinese reporting. Their numbers imply there are 10 recoveries for every one death. Almost 10% or 1 out of 11 people die from this virus according to China so far. In comparison 1 out of 1000 people die from the flu.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
if your numbers are correctedly depicted then this is going to be very bsd.   it seems you are saying thta most people are still infected and it would seem many will be dead later...the way you characterize it is hardly anybody survives...if that is the cqse then in a few weeks 80k will be dead. we shall see
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 27, 2020, 10:28:16 AM
LMAO! Nanci Pelosi's city of San Francisco just declared a citywide state of emergency to apparently prepare the city in the event of an outbreak of COVID-19. As of today, there is no known case of the virus in the city.

So I'm thinking…increasing amount of homeless people, feces on sidewalks, likely spread of hepatis-B, crimes in open daylight, thousands of used needles in public walkways, etc...weren't enough to scare San Franciscan, but watching news on TV about the virus scares the beejeeesus out of these libs.

Isn't it enough there's been a hiked rash of violence against Asian folks in the city, that they actually have to add to more unwarranted scare and chaos?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 27, 2020, 10:53:42 AM
She probably bought something on eBay, or from those internet roving merchants, and finally received shipment. I haven’t yet read if this virus is transmitted via touch, airborne, or other means.

There was a report of a Korean Airlines flight attendant that hubbed at LAX who was later found to be infected with the virus. There doesn’t seem to be a follow up report on this story.



Viruses do not survive during the time taken to travel from China to the USA - even if on a  overnight service


Can I get coronavirus from mail and parcels from China or other affected areas?





There is currently no evidence that you can catch coronavirus from parcels and letters. Viruses like coronavirus cannot live for very long outside the body.

http://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/common-questions/ (http://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/common-questions/)




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 27, 2020, 11:12:10 AM
There currently is no definitive information on this virus transmissibility.

Quote
China's central bank is taking steps to deep clean and even destroy its cash out of fears that the new coronavirus can survive on the surface of money and potentially spread, according to CNN.

But how long can the new coronavirus linger on surfaces, anyway? The short answer is, we don't know. But if this new coronavirus resembles other human coronaviruses, such as its "cousins" that cause SARS and MERS, it can stay on surfaces —  such as metal, glass or plastic — for as long as nine days, according to a new study. (In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.)

 http://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 27, 2020, 11:38:46 AM
There currently is no definitive information on this virus transmissibility.

 http://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html

Me?

I prefer to rely on a micro-biologist, RU qualified MD  and retired surgeon ..  AND the NHS ..




 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 27, 2020, 02:10:11 PM
Me?

I prefer to rely on a micro-biologist, RU qualified MD  and retired surgeon ..  AND the NHS ..

Already been proven. 9 days give or take. Your NHS takes 4 hours for an emergency visit on a good day. That's before a pandemic. Pretty sure I know why you're hoping this is just a case of the sniffles. Certain Demographic, Prior condition. Poor Medical Service. I can be in an ER in 8 minutes if I call now and say I'm having heart issues. Wish you luck ;)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 27, 2020, 02:12:22 PM
the fundamental difference between the flu and covid-19 is its “virulence”
covid-19 is on average 20 times deadlier than the flu!
thus far, covid-19 hasn’t established a permanent foothold in the US of A....
but, it is growing increasingly likely that this invader will cross our border one day and kill our people...
yet, for some reason we spend several times more on the wall with Mexico
than preparing for this scenario....

So far, there have been an estimated 19 million cases of flu, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths in the U.S. this influenza season – including 68 children, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

we’ll have to wait a couple of years to see the future trend of covid-19 to extrapolate it’s future size relative to the flu, since this is kinda year one for us...
but if covid-19 ever reaches the infection level that influenza does, then we could lose 400,000 people a year from that point on from this disease just in the USA

we can see from the response from Italy, Japan, China, that once the number of covid-19 cases passes a certain threshold that a certain level of social and economic breakdown occurs...

so you better be prepared before and not after...

hospitals will be overflowing, then tent hospitals outside in the parking lot, then turn patients away....

grocery stores and pharmacies will be empty

a significant amount of the pain that will be inflicted on society will be economic
China is forecast to have a 10% drop in GDP for Q1 of this year...
this will ripple through the global economy as China starts importing less...
if this economic effect continues long term and is not temporary
then a lot of debt dominoes are gonna fall in the next couple of years...
major decline in all asset classes
a global pandemic will send shock waves through the world’s markets
even worse than the collapse of mortgage backed securities in the mid 2000s

AND in parallel with covid-19
the influenza rate in China has doubled in the last 5 years
these trends are spooking every marketplace in the world

http://www.statista.com/statistics/861143/influenza-incidence-rate-in-china/

my daughter snuck me into a closed briefing at Rice University by a team of  university virologists.  China just handed out the DNA sequence for the virus as well as cell culturing protocol to grow the virus, saving the global community a huge amount of research time...

BUT...
one word is all I’m a-gonna say....
 
Биопрепарат

both past and future

isolationism

what other horseman are approaching on the far horizon
for I see many...






 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 27, 2020, 02:57:23 PM
Already been proven. 9 days give or take. Your NHS takes 4 hours for an emergency visit on a good day. That's before a pandemic. Pretty sure I know why you're hoping this is just a case of the sniffles. Certain Demographic, Prior condition. Poor Medical Service. I can be in an ER in 8 minutes if I call now and say I'm having heart issues. Wish you luck ;)

'proven' ?  :wallbash:

1/ The NHS doesn't make folks wait to be treated until they can find someone to pay when ill...  as happened with my first wife on a trip to Florida in 1994 .. She was in agony with acute Sinusitis...   We had medical cover  - but until I paid for the insurance excess - no treatment would be forth-coming ...     


The NHS is under-funded and top heavy with managers ... the LAST thing it needs is 'help' from our cousins who don't think healthcare is a right.

2/ Just because there' BIG money involved in US healthcare in no way guarantees good care

3/ Your very own CDC seems o agree with the NHS, my micro-biologist , MD and retired surgeon..



Q: Am I at risk for COVID-19 from a package or products shipping from China?

A: There is still a lot that is unknown about the newly emerged COVID-19 and how it spreads. Two other coronaviruses have emerged previously to cause severe illness in people (MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV). The virus that causes COVID-19 is more genetically related to SARS-CoV than MERS-CoV, but both are betacoronaviruses with their origins in bats. While we don’t know for sure that this virus will behave the same way as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, we can use the information gained from both of these earlier coronaviruses to guide us. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of COVID-19 in the United States associated with imported goods. Information will be provided on the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) website as it becomes available.

http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html (http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html)



Pretty sure I know why you're hoping this is just a case of the sniffles. Certain Demographic, Prior condition. Poor Medical Service.

I'm CERTAIN you're clueless - PERIOD ..    :popcorn:


I can be in an ER in 8 minutes if I call now and say I'm having heart issues. Wish you luck ;)

Your  bizarre need to prove your daftness knows no bounds ... May be you've been listening to your President making a 'Richard' of himself re the virus and contradicting the CDC ?

If in the UK, I live a 20 minute plus drive from the nearest major hospital ...  I've never felt the need to live close to a hospital's Accident and Emergency ..

*I* could pick up the phone and a paramedic - one's normally on station near the motorway junction, nearby - would be home in less time than you need to be in the ER..  and guess what ?   No charge ..


The subject is COVID-19 and here's the World Health Organisation info on packages from overseas



Is it safe to receive a package from any area where COVID-19 has been reported?

Yes. The likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low and the risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature is also low.











Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 27, 2020, 03:07:55 PM
'proven' ?  :wallbash:

1/ The NHS doesn't make folks wait to be treated until they can find someone to pay when ill...  as happened with my first wife on a trip to Florida in 1994 .. She was in agony with acute Sinusitis...   We had medical cover  - but until I paid for the insurance excess - no treatment would be forth-coming ...     


The NHS is under-funded and top heavy with managers ... the LAST thing it needs is 'help' from our cousins who don't think healthcare is a right.

2/ Just because there' BIG money involved in US healthcare in no way guarantees good care

3/ Your very own CDC seems o agree with the NHS, my micro-biologist , MD and retired surgeon..



Q: Am I at risk for COVID-19 from a package or products shipping from China?

A: There is still a lot that is unknown about the newly emerged COVID-19 and how it spreads. Two other coronaviruses have emerged previously to cause severe illness in people (MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV). The virus that causes COVID-19 is more genetically related to SARS-CoV than MERS-CoV, but both are betacoronaviruses with their origins in bats. While we don’t know for sure that this virus will behave the same way as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, we can use the information gained from both of these earlier coronaviruses to guide us. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of COVID-19 in the United States associated with imported goods. Information will be provided on the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) website as it becomes available.

http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html (http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html)



I'm CERTAIN you're clueless - PERIOD ..    :popcorn:


Your  bizarre need to prove your daftness knows no bounds ... May be you've been listening to your President making a 'Richard' of himself re the virus and contradicting the CDC ?

If in the UK, I live a 20 minute plus drive from the nearest major hospital ...  I've never felt the need to live close to a hospital's Accident and Emergency ..

*I* could pick up the phone and a paramedic - one's normally on station near the motorway junction, nearby - would be home in less time than you need to be in the ER..  and guess what ?   No charge ..


The subject is COVID-19 and here's the World Health Organisation info on packages from overseas



Is it safe to receive a package from any area where COVID-19 has been reported?

Yes. The likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low and the risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature is also low.





HAHAHAHAHAH, you are adorable. Touched a nerve their eh old man?

Anyways glad I got you to write out a book. Enjoy the good times to come. I wonder if COVID19 will have a better or worse impact on someone with a current Lung Disease?

http://www.bbc.com/news/health-51565492

Maybe if you'd had to wait the 6 hours to be seen at an equivalent NHS you could have shown them you had coverage and still had 4 hours to spare, Not that all Americans are in my Position, but my last Hospital Ride and ER stay, costed me a $100 copay, billed to my house 3 weeks later and paid with my Company paid HRA.

;)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 27, 2020, 03:09:29 PM
3/ Your very own CDC seems o agree with the NHS, my micro-biologist , MD and retired surgeon..

CDC, hmmm..

In the case of the lone positive case of Covid-19 in California...

Quote
Upon admission, our team asked public health officials if this case could be COVID-19. We requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, since neither Sacramento County nor the California Department of Public Health is doing testing for coronavirus at this time. Since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered. UC Davis Health does not control the testing process...

http://www.ucdavis.edu/news/coronavirus-patient-and-precautions-uc-davis-medical-center

...oh, and I'd like to add: "...low risk..." is still a *risk* just as 'almost dead is still alive'.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on February 27, 2020, 03:12:40 PM
I am worried about this as I have gall bladder surgery scheduled for 10th of March.

But if the virus starts to be treated in my local hospital before that . . . .

Gall bladder pain has been fairly  constant for past several days, but only around 2-3.

Was thinking about going to emergency room right now and tell them the pain is 9-10.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 27, 2020, 03:15:36 PM
I am worried about this as I have gall bladder surgery scheduled for 10th of March.

But if the virus starts to be treated in my local hospital before that . . . .

Gall bladder pain has been fairly  constant for past several days, but only around 2-3.

Was thinking about going to emergency room right now and tell them the pain is 9-10.

Might be a good time to do it now. Or if you opt for later, a Rural ER.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 27, 2020, 03:53:06 PM
if your numbers are correctedly depicted then this is going to be very bsd.   it seems you are saying thta most people are still infected and it would seem many will be dead later...the way you characterize it is hardly anybody survives...if that is the cqse then in a few weeks 80k will be dead. we shall see


I used numbers from some nations who have some of the worst survival rates. As I type this John Hopkins reports 36,063 people in the world finished a battle with the virus. 33,253 made a full recovery. 2810 died. I suspect a lot more dead since China underreports and some countries like N Korea isn't reporting at all but for arguments sake, lets say the numbers are true. That means 7.8 % of the people are dying from this virus. Mortality rate is extremely high. If everybody in this world got this virus once, 600 million people will die. But that is not the scary thing we need to worry about.....

Our bodies already experiences coronaviruses that cause the common cold. There is no cure/vaccine for the common cold viruses. There probably won't be a cure/vaccine ever discovered for 2019 - nCoV. We may have to live with this virus forever and if it maintains a 7.8% rate of death for those infected and we catch this virus ten times in our lives, there's a good chance most of us will die from it eventually. This virus must be eradicated from the human body and if it did come from an animal, those animals must be liquidated. If humanity fails to control this virus and we have to live with it everyday like we do the common cold viruses, our life expectancy will be significantly reduced. this deadly virus will also modify our behavior on many levels.

Governments don't want to send the public into a panic but billions are being designated to find a cure. Every lab capable of inventing a cure is at work. If any nation fails to control the virus, they will spend even more quarantining people, closing schools, other places of public gatherings, and closing even their economy in an effort to beat the virus just as China is doing now.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521#definition
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 27, 2020, 05:54:43 PM
then you'll have the ER co-pay...

I think you'' be OK to wait out the next 10 days
OTOH, if you go the ER route you'll get pain killers, at least 2.5 mg of morphine at a minimum
you'll be in the warm embrace of Morpheus
feelin fine
not a bad journey to take
before you walk through the valley of the shadow of death
happy visions only for you Pilgrim

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on February 27, 2020, 07:18:26 PM
Quote
...the Chinese scientists writing in The Lancet medical journal later revealed that the first patient known to have contracted the novel coronavirus had no link to the Wuhan seafood market (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047646/no-link-seafood-market-first-case-china-coronavirus-chinese) that the Chinese government pointed to as the source of the outbreak. This would suggest that the virus all along was spreading via human-to-human transmission – and that the government was lying to the public from the very beginning of this catastrophe.

http://thediplomat.com/2020/02/the-coronavirus-outbreak-how-democratic-taiwan-outperformed-authoritarian-china/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 27, 2020, 07:29:25 PM
Trump is probably going to force private companies that manufacture masks to focus on manufacturing 300 million masks to combat the virus. Goal is to get a mask for every American and change slogan for 2020 election campaign to Make America Virus Free Again.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/exclusive-us-mulls-using-sweeping-powers-to-ramp-up-production-of-coronavirus-protective-gear/ar-BB10u5ge?ocid=spartanntp

I like the mask below. $9 and it fits snuggly over the face. I see a lot of Chinese not wearing their fabric masks properly. That aluminum strip needs to be form fitted over the nose otherwise air can get around the mask. Also needed is eye protection since the virus can get in the eyes and infect.

http://fadtype.com/DANIU-6200-N95-Double-Gas-Mask-Protection-Filter-Chemical-Half-Face-Respirator-Mask-1175732

In my local news a school staffer takes an international vacation and one of the family members is getting tested for the virus and the high school the staffer works in is shut down so the entire campus can get disinfected. Taxpayers to staffer "We hope you enjoyed your f'ing vacation"

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/bothell-high-school-closed-thursday-in-an-abundance-of-caution-over-coronavirus-fears-after-staffer-traveled-internationally/

South Korea is currently experiencing a virus explosion with over 2000 infected now but Canadian researchers estimate Iran has over 18,000 infected and are underreporting since they claim only 245 of their citizens are infected. Iran's deputy Health Minister said quarantines were a “Stone Age” way to address the problem, and Iran doesn’t need them. Later that evening he tested positive for the virus and then used a Stone Age solution quarantining himself for a modern day problem.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-t-hide-coronavirus-explosion-102629171.html

Iran's Vice President has tested positive for the virus. Like China, Iran is probably underreporting and nations neighboring Iran are shutting down borders. Russia is restricting all flights from Iran. There is good news coming out of Iran since there's less commercial planes available for them to shoot down. Tourism to Iran is going to take a dive and the economy will take a hit. North Korea better keep quiet about it's virus problems otherwise they will lose tourists too.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/irans-vice-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB10u33i?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on February 27, 2020, 07:37:44 PM
Why Diet Coke may be in shorter supply due to the spread of coronavirus               Feb 27 2020  (http://www.today.com/) Alyssa Newcomb
Quote
This week, The Coca-Cola Co. announced that it is experiencing both production and export issues of Diet Coke and other low-calorie drinks from China, which been ground zero for the outbreak.
On Monday, Coca-Cola warned investors that its supply chain for an artificial sweetener and "certain other ingredients" sourced in China had been disrupted as a result of the outbreak, which has now killed more than 2,000 people around the world.
http://www.aol.com/article/finance/2020/02/27/why-diet-coke-may-be-in-shorter-supply-due-to-the-spread-of-coronavirus/23935688/

So it's back to regular Coke?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 27, 2020, 07:53:58 PM
R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It’s a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.

R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven’t been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 3, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 3 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.

The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6.
for the current strains of covid-19 it’s estimated to be about 2.28!!!

the problem with this number is we don’t currently know the reinfection rate, since normally people who survived a virus infection would be immune from reinfection, but NOT with this virus...
but reinfection has been verified in as soon as a month after the first initial infection
this implies a HUGE mutation rate for this virus!
this makes it more likely to turn REALLY deadly sometime in the future!

overall, the virus as it currently is, will if it catches fire here
end up infecting more people than the flu, and will kill FAR MANY more
if this catches fire here, then within 10 years I’d expect to see 200,000 deaths each and every year in the USA from the current version of the virus
AND there is a strong possibility multiple versions of the virus will recombine in the host, creating a much more lethal virus

besides the death toll, which will primarily be on older people, but not exclusively
there will be HUGE social changes
air travel as we currently enjoy, will come to an end

there will be a huge global economic depression
followed by wars and famine

and if you look at what else virology related is happening in china,
the influenza rate has climbed 50% in the last 5 years
at the same time as SARS and covid-19

two different strains of other kinds of virus in this category have been known to recombine when they both infect a host at the same time creating a hyper-virulent strain
this is what the “Spanish Flu” was which killed 500,000 Americans in less than 6 months
in 1918-1919 by a poultry influenza strain that recombined with a human strain

sweet dreams everyone!

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 27, 2020, 08:04:15 PM
Trump is probably going to force private companies that manufacture masks to focus on manufacturing 300 million masks to combat the virus. Goal is to get a mask for every American and change slogan for 2020 election campaign to Make America Virus Free Again.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/exclusive-us-mulls-using-sweeping-powers-to-ramp-up-production-of-coronavirus-protective-gear/ar-BB10u5ge?ocid=spartanntp

I like the mask below. $9 and it fits snuggly over the face. I see a lot of Chinese not wearing their fabric masks properly. That aluminum strip needs to be form fitted over the nose otherwise air can get around the mask. Also needed is eye protection since the virus can get in the eyes and infect.

http://fadtype.com/DANIU-6200-N95-Double-Gas-Mask-Protection-Filter-Chemical-Half-Face-Respirator-Mask-1175732

I did a lot of airbrushing and painting metal especially when I had my '72 Nova so I still have a 3M 7500 half mask In the garage. I think Even a few unused filters. Wonder if they last for more than 5 years if I end up needing to use it :P



South Korea is currently experiencing a virus explosion with over 2000 infected now but Canadian researchers estimate Iran has over 18,000 infected and are underreporting since they claim only 245 of their citizens are infected. Iran's deputy Health Minister said quarantines were a “Stone Age” way to address the problem, and Iran doesn’t need them. Later that evening he tested positive for the virus and then used a Stone Age solution quarantining himself for a modern day problem.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-t-hide-coronavirus-explosion-102629171.html

Iran's Vice President has tested positive for the virus. Like China, Iran is probably underreporting and nations neighboring Iran are shutting down borders. Russia is restricting all flights from Iran. There is good news coming out of Iran since there's less commercial planes available for them to shoot down. Tourism to Iran is going to take a dive and the economy will take a hit. North Korea better keep quiet about it's virus problems otherwise they will lose tourists too.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/irans-vice-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB10u33i?ocid=spartanntp

Did you watch the video with that Deputy Health Minister wiping his face constantly? Seemed like something you'd see from a Plague or Zombie movie, then later that day announces he has it too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-VuRK8L1kg
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on February 27, 2020, 08:58:39 PM
Pope Francis coughing a day after expressing 'closeness' to coronavirus victims  by Nicholas Rowan (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/author/nicholas-rowan)    | February 27, 2020 11:32 AM
Quote
Pope Francis was seen coughing a day after expressing his "closeness" to coronavirus victims in Italy.
"I wish, again, to express my closeness to those who are ill with coronavirus and to healthcare workers who are caring for them," Francis said during a general audience in St. Peter's Square before Ash Wednesday mass. The comment was prompted by the presence of several people in the audience wearing protective masks, according to (http://www.romereports.com/en/2020/02/26/pope-francis-sends-message-to-people-infected-with-coronavirus/) Rome Reports.
The Vatican reported that Francis developed a "slight indisposition" on Thursday and that he canceled a planned mass at St. John Lateran Basilica. The nature of the pope's illness was not specified.
Although Italy has become center for coronavirus outbreaks in Europe, with more than 440 cases reported, Rome has been largely free of illness. Only three cases have been reported in Rome, and all have recovered, according to (http://nypost.com/2020/02/27/pope-francis-sick-a-day-after-supporting-coronavirus-sufferers/) the New York Post. Globally, over 80,000 cases have been reported.
Francis forewent (http://apnews.com/19233731504e19355613706cd4e4d380) the precautions that many other Catholic churches took in celebrating Ash Wednesday. As he rode through the square, the pope kissed the forehead of a child and shook the hands of many people gathered in the audience, a departure from his usual wave.
Meanwhile, in Venice, Ash Wednesday mass at St. Mark's Basilica was canceled after several people in the city tested positive for the virus. 
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/pope-francis-coughing-a-day-after-expressing-closeness-to-coronavirus-victims
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 27, 2020, 09:29:43 PM
Did you watch the video with that Deputy Health Minister wiping his face constantly? Seemed like something you'd see from a Plague or Zombie movie, then later that day announces he has it too.


Just watched it. Guy acting strange, sweating constantly, wiping his nose and sweat off the face while telling everybody there's nothing to fear, they have it under control and denied Tehran is hiding how bad the virus spread. Thing is he probably infected half the people in the room, especially the guy next to him who may be the Health Minister. Time to apply Stone Age solutions quarantining everybody in that room for 30 days. On the bright side, Iranians are used to having their movements restricted so no major inconvenience to them and the government has a valid reason to lock people up which will reduce protesting.

Japan is closing all schools till late March. If they don't get the virus under control, they may close everything for a longer period of time.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/japan-to-close-schools-nationwide-to-control-spread-of-virus/ar-BB10sOUw?ocid=spartanntp

I'm going to start buying some masks and foods with a long shelf life before the lines get long and the stores get empty. If America gets an outbreak like some of those countries, people going to panic. This virus is going to impact a lot of lives around the world. Even if many don't get the virus, they may be out of a job if business close and their whole city gets locked down. More information a person gets the better. This thread should be moved to odds and ends where lurkers can read it. Being in Anything goes, only the few member who signed in can read it.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on February 27, 2020, 09:56:37 PM
I am worried about this as I have gall bladder surgery scheduled for 10th of March.

But if the virus starts to be treated in my local hospital before that . . . .

Gall bladder pain has been fairly  constant for past several days, but only around 2-3.

Was thinking about going to emergency room right now and tell them the pain is 9-10.
tough spot you may be in.     i just got opened up and feel real bad and unabl to do much but hopeufully will get better stronger before and if this virus starts to go 'viral'.  personally if i were you i'd rathr get it behind me sooner rather than in 2 weeks.   my hope is billyb's analsysis is flawed but i'm open to it being possible and i think we are one outbreak away from empty shelves and major disruptions.  if you are infirm during a crisis it would be doubley disturbing...  yeah maybe fill up your kitchen and extra tanks of gasoline, doubt you would need it but why not?   gall bladder does help with immune system if i remmber right so that aint' good eitehr.   good luck
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 27, 2020, 10:06:51 PM
I used numbers from some nations who have some of the worst survival rates. As I type this John Hopkins reports 36,063 people in the world finished a battle with the virus. 33,253 made a full recovery. 2810 died. I suspect a lot more dead since China underreports and some countries like N Korea isn't reporting at all but for arguments sake, lets say the numbers are true. That means 7.8 % of the people are dying from this virus. Mortality rate is extremely high. If everybody in this world got this virus once, 600 million people will die. But that is not the scary thing we need to worry about.....

Our bodies already experiences coronaviruses that cause the common cold. There is no cure/vaccine for the common cold viruses. There probably won't be a cure/vaccine ever discovered for 2019 - nCoV. We may have to live with this virus forever and if it maintains a 7.8% rate of death for those infected and we catch this virus ten times in our lives, there's a good chance most of us will die from it eventually. This virus must be eradicated from the human body and if it did come from an animal, those animals must be liquidated. If humanity fails to control this virus and we have to live with it everyday like we do the common cold viruses, our life expectancy will be significantly reduced. this deadly virus will also modify our behavior on many levels.

Governments don't want to send the public into a panic but billions are being designated to find a cure. Every lab capable of inventing a cure is at work. If any nation fails to control the virus, they will spend even more quarantining people, closing schools, other places of public gatherings, and closing even their economy in an effort to beat the virus just as China is doing now.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521#definition


BillyB

Have you self-isolated yourself -locked yourself away from physical contact with humanity based on your Armageddon wacko theories ?

In the meantime ..

 1/ most masks are STILL useless in preventing catching the virus - if you knew you HAD the virus - they might prevent one spreading it .. if you changed the mask as soon as it was damp

2/ COVID-19 is a constantly mutating virus and those speaking of vaccines are talking out of their ..it's already been seen how one infected person, who infects another has a different strain


Your posts are akin to construction worker being put in charge of a micro-biology institute and making 'policy' ..


3/ How will any nation 'control' the virus ..? 

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 27, 2020, 10:48:53 PM

 1/ most masks are STILL useless in preventing catching the virus -



Good thing you've been put in charge of nothing.

Masks can't stop a virus but masks stop airborne particles such as droplets from a sneeze the virus rides on. Maybe you believe people just sneeze out viruses all by themselves? A mask will stop most droplets if someone sneezes or coughs wearing one.

An N95 mask stops 95% of airborne particles if worn properly. Higher the number the better. Also, don't buy Chinese because they false advertise.

Moby, out of everybody on this forum, I predict you're the first one to get the coronavirus. While everybody is wearing masks, you'll be running around without a mask telling people masks are useless and the virus isn't anymore dangerous than the flu virus. People out there will look at you like this forum looks at you.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 27, 2020, 11:43:13 PM

BillyB

Have you self-isolated yourself -locked yourself away from physical contact with humanity based on your Armageddon wacko theories ?

In the meantime ..

 1/ most masks are STILL useless in preventing catching the virus - if you knew you HAD the virus - they might prevent one spreading it .. if you changed the mask as soon as it was damp

2/ COVID-19 is a constantly mutating virus and those speaking of vaccines are talking out of their ..it's already been seen how one infected person, who infects another has a different strain


Your posts are akin to construction worker being put in charge of a micro-biology institute and making 'policy' ..


3/ How will any nation 'control' the virus ..?


This is glorious! The guy most proved wrong in his own domestic politics, Foreign politics, earlier in this very thread for  the virus being gone in a week, add in a failure of a plan going to Georgia without backup cash. I mean we could keep going but I dont think I have to  :deadhorse: .

God bud, you are a riot. Even statistically by this point you should have landed on something right. The old saying a clock is right twice a day doesn't apply here.  XD

But please don't take this laugh at your expense to mean you shouldn't  stop posting. On the contrary post more, please. :popcorn: :popcorn:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 28, 2020, 07:09:39 AM
CDC, hmmm..

In the case of the lone positive case of Covid-19 in California...

http://www.ucdavis.edu/news/coronavirus-patient-and-precautions-uc-davis-medical-center

...oh, and I'd like to add: "...low risk..." is still a *risk* just as 'almost dead is still alive'.

Sure enough, and just like that, it went from a lone positive case in California to 33 confirmed cases in just one day with active monitoring of 8,000 more. So the silly CDC hurried to change their silly criteria on testing protocol.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on February 28, 2020, 07:31:50 AM
Sure enough, and just like that, it went from a lone positive case in California to 33 confirmed cases in just one day with active monitoring of 8,000 more. So the silly CDC hurried to change their silly criteria on testing protocol.
seems like big news and that is somewhat buried...or what?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 28, 2020, 08:09:34 AM
the masks are to show the public that you're trying not to be a virus spreader...
back when we had the bird flu in Crimea
if you rode a marshrutka and someone had a bad cough or sneeze and DIDN'T have a mask on
EVERYONE else got pissed at them and would verbally harass and abuse them!!!
ohhh the Russian curses I heard, the mattest mat EVER!!!!
it was brilliant language, I could actually see the TRUE Russian soul!
which is kinda scary to me!

because at the bottom of the Russian soul is all about how each person deals with their PTSD!
eta moy pravda



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on February 28, 2020, 08:27:40 AM
Good thing you've been put in charge of nothing.
                                                              (http://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/Smileys/DarkB/cheesy.gif)
Quote
Masks can't stop a virus but masks stop airborne particles such as droplets from a sneeze the virus rides on. Maybe you believe people just sneeze out viruses all by themselves? A mask will stop most droplets if someone sneezes or coughs wearing one.
Back in July 2018 I bought a pk of 50 surgical masks for 9.99 on ebay.
We used them for dust masks when we mowed the yard.
We used up only 3 or 4. Go price them now [if you can find them]
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 28, 2020, 09:48:49 AM
seems like big news and that is somewhat buried...or what?

I'm sure it's to tone down the public and not create undue over-reaction, or worst, panic. The sick lady had apparently turned for the worst today. They are still trying to determine exactly how she got the virus since she didn't meet CDC's test criteria as a likely patient with COVID-19, so they decided not to test her for it. She went on as though she had the common flu and was not immediately quarantined.

Even to this moment, they keep saying and using the term *low risk*. It went from one infected to 33 to 8,000+ under observation overnight - yet it's low risk to the community at large. The city of San Francisco declared a state of emergency yesterday....so....

Go figure.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 28, 2020, 10:02:55 AM

I understand the government's reasoning for not creating panic. They don't want people emptying shelves and running each other over to get the last few remaining items. Best to buy a few things now just in case the virus gets out of control in one's city. I don't trust China and a few nations reporting on infections and deaths. This virus is highly contagious and it's killing more people than they let on. The mortality rate on flu and the common cold viruses are acceptable. The mortality rate on this virus is not. It must be defeated and to do so will disrupt many people's lives. If a city is quarantined, businesses will close, people will be unemployed and group gatherings and education will come to a halt.

I will be prepared but I don't expect this to get out of control in my city although we have a large Chinese population here. As long as idiots to not take vacations overseas, especially to China, America should be fine as we wait for other nations to get their epidemics under control and defeat the virus. Could take years though.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 28, 2020, 10:23:03 AM
it's kinda interesting to see individual stories of how people are coping in Wuhan...
it seems the strategy I worked out is a pretty common one there
you have one person be responsible for access to the outside world
and this person minimizes contact by isolation from the rest of his family
but is able to provide supplies to them...

an extension of this would be if you got a group of individual families
who cooperated, and one member from each family had this position each month
then the odds of an individual getting the virus would be 1/12 (even better if your neighbors get the peak months and not you)
survival math

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 28, 2020, 12:07:05 PM
The Moby crowd start writing articles.

You mean people that actually travel abroad and have seen this ignorance with their own eyes, Beel ?

I 'fear' folks who've been in N.Italy more than China ;)





 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on February 28, 2020, 01:47:16 PM
.... so they decided not to test her for it. She went on as though she had the common flu and was not immediately quarantined.

From the info I have, it seems health agencies were rationing the specific COVID-19 tests to those known to have come in contact with China travelers or known infected patients.   

Explanations for rationing:

            -  Test kits were in limited supply because most kits that had been shipped earlier had expired reagents.
            -  CDC limited the number of laboratories authorized to conduct the tests.

These screw-ups should not happen.   More will be forthcoming on this issue.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on February 28, 2020, 03:58:14 PM
From the info I have, it seems health agencies were rationing the specific COVID-19 tests to those known to have come in contact with China travelers or known infected patients.   

Explanations for rationing:

            -  Test kits were in limited supply because most kits that had been shipped earlier had expired reagents.
            -  CDC limited the number of laboratories authorized to conduct the tests.

These screw-ups should not happen.   More will be forthcoming on this issue.

In this particular case, CDC decided NOT to test the woman because she didn't meet CDC's qualifying criteria for testing. Which were, she didn't have a history of travel or didn't have contact with anyone who was infected. Consequently, she was tested 4 days later and the result came out positive for Covid-19. She exposed folks for 4 additional days as a result.

  http://khn.org/news/new-california-coronavirus-case-reveals-problems-with-testing-protocols/

Other non-mainstream media reported that CDC broke away from global ranks in their attempt to establish a more comprehensive, complicated test that would identify a more varied range of similar viruses. The result turned out to be flawed, and consequently lost valuable time.*

http://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

*Whether or not this is true, I do not know. There's so much red tape with these things that it's almost impossible to find where the truth lies, sadly enough.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 28, 2020, 04:08:16 PM
Currently there is some concern that the virus could be polyphasic. Meaning you get the virus, get well, virus lies dormant, layer you get it again. Similar to Anthrax. Japan just had it's second case.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/28/world/asia/28reuters-china-health-reinfection-explainer.html

There's also a troubling video showing an American who got the virus on the cruise ship, 2 weeks later was cleared, then on Fox is seen coughing quite a bit, somewhat sweaty sharing a water bottle with his daughter.

http://youtu.be/z5PXh4U8CJs

None of this has been confirmed of course but it is speculation for now.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on February 28, 2020, 06:39:33 PM
Currently there is some concern that the virus could be polyphasic. Meaning you get the virus, get well, virus lies dormant, layer you get it again. Similar to Anthrax. Japan just had it's second case.

the more I read the nastier this virus seems to be which is concerning.   keep getting the same virus over again until it overwhelms the immune system and takes a person out.  some people eliminated after one round others 2, 3 or 5 rounds.  what a horrible thought. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 28, 2020, 06:59:35 PM
Currently there is some concern that the virus could be polyphasic. Meaning you get the virus, get well, virus lies dormant, layer you get it again. Similar to Anthrax. Japan just had it's second case.


2109 - nCoV is similar to cold viruses which are also coronaviruses but a lot deadlier. No cure for the cold but our body will produce antibodies and eventually beat the virus. There probably won't be a cure ever invented for this virus. Chances of getting infected with a cold virus again after getting a cold is minimal since antibodies will remain present in our bodies after a battle with a cold virus but we can easily catch a cold again after the antibodies diminish which takes a few months.

the more I read the nastier this virus seems to be which is concerning.   keep getting the same virus over again until it overwhelms the immune system and takes a person out.  some people eliminated after one round others 2, 3 or 5 rounds.  what a horrible thought. 


How many times in your life did you catch a cold? This virus is more contagious and deadlier. If it ends up having an 8% mortality rate and you catch it a number of times in your life, chances are you will die from it eventually. Highly likely people you know and family will die from it. That is why it needs to be defeated and there is great costs to do so. Blame China.

When this virus was discovered in Wuhan in late 2019, China hid it from the public and it exploded on their people yet they continued with business as usual. Two days before Wuhan, with the Communist party's blessing, told the world about the outbreak, they advertised a potluck for citizens and got more than 40,000 families together in one spot to eat in hopes they'd break a world record. The same day they announced the outbreak, the city also advertised they're giving away 200,000 free tickets to attend the city's new year celebration! Very irresponsible of the government to sponsor large groups of people together TWICE knowing there is an unknown and uncontrollable virus that has affected some of their citizens. So there will be great cost in lives and disruption of lives. There will be a huge financial cost to everybody in the world. Already our government has offered hundreds of millions to help China and designated billions to prepare for a defense against the virus in hopes it won't become an epidemic here. Since you invested in stocks, I'm sure you've taken a hit.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on February 28, 2020, 07:05:01 PM

There's also a troubling video showing an American who got the virus on the cruise ship, 2 weeks later was cleared, then on Fox is seen coughing quite a bit, somewhat sweaty sharing a water bottle with his daughter.

Reminds me of Spanish flu during WWI.

One soldier in hospital told he was given one thermometer, and told to take and record temps of all the guys in the ward.  He just wiped on his shirt between mouths.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 28, 2020, 07:45:34 PM
Currently there is some concern that the virus could be polyphasic. Meaning you get the virus, get well, virus lies dormant, layer you get it again. Similar to Anthrax. Japan just had it's second case.

OMG..


Similar to Anthrax' ...?

A Virus is 'similar' to a Bacteria, now..?





 :wallbash:




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 28, 2020, 10:41:31 PM
"Maximum discipline", "Absolute Obedience" and loud speakers are being used to keep the virus from crossing the North Korean border. The whole country is under quarantine. Nobody in, nobody out. The people know the drill. They are no strangers to being locked down. In the photo everybody wears a mask except fearless Kim Jong Un who radiates strength and invincibility to his people. South Korea with over 2000 infected should use some of North Korea's methods of prevention.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/kim-warns-serious-consequences-virus-reaches-north-korea-005947594.html

Less than an hour from where I live, two more cases of infections showed up. One is a lady who just came back from South Korea and the other is a teen who did not travel. Who did he catch it from? Those two people live in different counties and if they didn't interact with each other, the teen probably acquired it from another infected person roaming the streets freely undetected. If this thing explodes in my area, I'll have to try maximum discipline and absolute obedience to see if it works.

http://tinyurl.com/vn2uj6v
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on February 28, 2020, 10:58:04 PM
Reminds me of Spanish flu during WWI.
Wow! M L .....Just how old are you bud?
Quote
The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colloquialism) known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic), the first of the two pandemics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemics) involving H1N1 influenza virus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1), with the second being the swine flu in 2009 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic).[1 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-1) It infected 500 million people around the world,[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-FOOTNOTETaubenbergerMorens2006-2) or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on isolated Pacific islands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_islands) and in the Arctic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic). The death toll is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics) in human history.[3] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-3)[4] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-4) Historical and epidemiological (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology) data are inadequate to identify with certainty the pandemic's geographic origin.[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-FOOTNOTETaubenbergerMorens2006-2)
I got the Hong Kong flu in '68--- it kicked my ass!
Quote
The 1968 flu pandemic was a category 2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Severity_Index) flu pandemic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_pandemic) whose outbreak in 1968 and 1969 killed an estimated one million people worldwide.[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic#cite_note-1)[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic#cite_note-2)[3] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic#cite_note-3) It was caused by an H3N2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3N2) strain of the influenza A virus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus), descended from H2N2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2) through antigenic shift (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift), a genetic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetics) process in which genes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene) from multiple subtypes reassorted (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reassortment) to form a new virus. Because it originated in Hong Kong (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Hong_Kong), the pandemic is also referred to as Hong Kong flu.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on February 28, 2020, 11:18:53 PM
"Maximum discipline", "Absolute Obedience" and loud speakers are being used to keep the virus from crossing the North Korean border. The whole country is under quarantine. Nobody in, nobody out. The people know the drill. They are no strangers to being locked down. In the photo everybody wears a mask except fearless Kim Jong Un who radiates strength and invincibility to his people. South Korea with over 2000 infected should use some of North Korea's methods of prevention.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/kim-warns-serious-consequences-virus-reaches-north-korea-005947594.html

Hey man, North Korea says the glorious leader ERADICATED the virus. I mean that's from the state news. what other confirmation could one want? So Moobs/failboat should definitely head there if he's worried about the 'sniffles'.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 29, 2020, 03:37:34 AM
He keeps trying. Hang on let me try old talk. HE couldn't SEE the similarities. Seeing his RIP will be GLORIOUS.

Your  posting, " I am so busted " would have sufficed.

One of the benefits of 'age' is often wisdom...



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on February 29, 2020, 08:04:01 AM
Blame China.
Since you invested in stocks, I'm sure you've taken a hit.

no, i don't blame china, unless it winds up being a bio weapon gone wild, which i don't think it is the case.   virus's is a way of the world.  reminds me of blaming trump, which also shouldn't be done either, in this case.   

stocks of mine got hit massively like anyone's   i'm not short on money (yet) but one child's 22k a semester college education definately means i need to keep earning and taking a hit hurts in the respect that the education account takes a hit.   i still feel easy come easy go overall about stock prices.   they rose so much in the past few years on paper.    interest rates are at all time lows. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 29, 2020, 09:12:51 AM
our quarantined past and future...

when I was a klein kind
meyn bobe told me about her journey from Ukraine to the golden shores of America...

first, it was a long, long train ride, up north past Kyiv and on through Warsaw...
they had to get off the train in Germany and get on another train...

she had her first quarantine in Germany
meyn bobe was just a kleiner kinder like me in a German camp
because her little brother had a cold, the whole family remained in the camp for a month until he got better and they were cleared....

then the family got on a train and went north to Hamburg...
where they boarded an English ship that took them to Hull, England...
where yet again they were interred in a quarantine camp
at least this one was inside and not in a tent like Germany
a small cramped room in an old building on the third floor with a community kitchen
and downstairs outside privy
a week there and they were all cleared to take a short train ride to the western side of the UK to Liverpool where they boarded another ship to sail to New York...

finally arriving on Feb 2, 1882
and quarantined yet again in a single large room with over 100 beds and community kitchen, etc...

after a week there, they were free as birds, and could go to wherever they pleased...

so...

I’m pretty sure that within the next 5 years, we’re going to have a HUGE change in global travel
personal travel will depend on a quarantine system
this requires testing kits...
we should be building dozens of testing kit factories right now
and taking our best minds, and give them unlimited resources
and tell them you’ve got a year to make the biggest improvements you can to the existing test kits and then you start building these factories

just so you understand people...
this disease is 50% more infectious than the flu
and twenty times more lethal....

if it takes hold here, i.e. gets into a locally created exponential growth rate then we are all gonna be screwed, don’t you see that?

we are now very dangerously close to this growth pattern actually beginning now...
hopefully, the growth rate of the virus will be reduced by temperature....
but think about it...
think about what happens after the summer pause,
when the virus’s optimal growth season resumes...
last year, it didn’t have this reservoir of virus, but when this years season restarts, it will...
IMHO, if next year gives us a 50%+ increase, then within 10 years of that, then this disease will be even more common than the flu

which means, with existing virus, we will have about 200,000 to 300,000 deaths per year in the USA
and there is a significant chance that one strain of this virus will recombine with another in a human host and creating a much more lethal version

Disease
Poverty
War
Famine

ghost riders in the sky

a voice in the wilderness, shouting out a warning to my brothers and sisters
all over this land

something on the horizon
slouching towards Bethlehem

and if that's not bad enough news...
there's worse...
this virus is a version of SARS...
it rapidly mutates...
SARS was  completely unknown by science just 20 years ago, and now this is now the 4th outbreak of a SARS virus
and look at the growth in magnitude of the human devastation caused by each new major outbreak of the virus
it's the next one, that's gonna be the one that wipes us all out...

think "Walking Dead" but without the zombies

oh, and before I go, let's let also not forget the fact that the flu infection rate in China has increased by 50% in the last 5 years at the same time

so some of the readers of this board
are probably gonna kiss their ass goodby in the next 5-10 years from SARS
my advice
live for today, don't worry about tomorrow
hey, hey, hey








Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 29, 2020, 10:17:28 AM
no, i don't blame china, unless it winds up being a bio weapon gone wild, which i don't think it is the case.   virus's is a way of the world.  reminds me of blaming trump, which also shouldn't be done either, in this case.   


China has been negligent. Regardless where this virus came from, it showed up last year and China did nothing except to silence those who were sounding the alarm. They let it get out of control in their country and into other countries affecting lives and economies. Although America has 66 infected, we are throwing billions of dollars to combat the problem and quarantining people last year but China didn't want to spend the money and hurt their reputation. Now they're going to spend a lot more money and take a bigger hit on reputation. If this problem was nipped at the bud, life would be fine. Now we have a real chance of living with this virus forever and it will alter our lives and economy forever.

just so you understand people...
this disease is 50% more infectious than the flu
and twenty times more lethal....


Your posts in this thread keep using conservative numbers. The flu has a .1% death rate and the media, government, and people with PhD's in interviews say this virus has a 2% mortality rate which makes it 20 times more deadlier than the flu. The 2% mortality rate is a lie or they all have bad math skills. John Hopkin link below has the reports from all nations. We know some nations like North Korea isn't reporting and some nations are underreporting for lets assume the numbers are true. You still can't get the 2% mortality rate with those numbers. It's higher. Anybody can do the math. 85,688 people in this world have been infected. 2933 people have died from the virus. 39,761 have recovered. That would mean 42,994 people are still battling the virus and can't be included in the mortality rate yet. So out of 42,694 people which have finished the battle with the virus, you can calculate current mortality rate with the 2933 people that died. If someone can show me how the government, media and experts come up with 2%, please show me. Current mortality rate is 6.9% and it's 69 times more deadlier than the flu. The truth may be the mortality rate is over 10%

http://tinyurl.com/yx2mqrfh
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on February 29, 2020, 10:29:06 AM
but the most important number after lethality and rate of infection (which are both really bad for this virus)
is the rate of increase of infection
that will take one more year to figure out
this is the number you need to see before you decide to panic or not

what we have learned so far
is that when the number of cases pass a certain threshold say between 400-1000
then the public adopts a "hoarding mentality" and the grocery stores and pharmacies empty...

smart people will wait until early summer before buying dry foods and MRE's radios flash lights
and here in the USA ammunition
make your purchases then and stretch it out so as to not have early shortages and even more panic

get ready for next flu season this summer


 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 29, 2020, 10:37:57 AM
Panic can be deadlier than this virus. People killing each other over the last mask or food on the shelf. I don't blame the government and experts if they are intentionally telling a lie this virus has a 2% or less mortality rate.

America may be fine but there is a chance an epidemic can hit an American city. Yesterday it was discovered a teen in a county next door to mine had the virus. He has not travelled. That means he got infected from a person who hasn't been discovered and not quarantined. There is a chance that this infected person has infected many more people and the numbers of infected can explode like it did in Italy, Iran, or South Korea.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 29, 2020, 05:54:56 PM
Some ( relative) stats for our BillyB..

"CORONAVIRUS IN NUMBERS…AND WHY WE REALLY SHOULDN’T PANIC"

"Let’s take one of the worst days so far – the 10th of February. Whilst we were enjoying our Public Holiday, 108 persons in CHINA died of Coronavirus.

BUT, on the same day
26,283 people died of Cancer
24,641 people died of Heart Disease
4,300 people died of Diabetes
and on that day, Suicide, unfortunately, took more lives than the virus did, by 28 times.
Moreover, Mosquitoes kill 2,740 people every day, HUMANS kill 1,300 fellow humans every day and Snakes kill 137 people every day."

One final thing which we would like to address is the Myth of the Mask. No, this is not the latest Indiana Jones instalment but a huge misconception.

People who are not sick do not need to wear any mask. A mask is worn to contain germs, in case, those who are affected sneeze (which is the most common way of spreading the virus). The mask should be worn by those who feel that they might be sick. The mask carries germs on its outer part, and, if not changed frequently, then it might actually be one of the carrying vehicles of the germs!

http://bay.com.mt/coronavirus-in-numbers-and-why-we-really-shouldnt-panic/ (http://bay.com.mt/coronavirus-in-numbers-and-why-we-really-shouldnt-panic/)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 29, 2020, 06:07:55 PM
"Let’s take one of the worst days so far – the 10th of February. Whilst we were enjoying our Public Holiday, 108 persons in CHINA died of Coronavirus.

BUT, on the same day
26,283 people died of Cancer
24,641 people died of Heart Disease
4,300 people died of Diabetes
and on that day, Suicide, unfortunately, took more lives than the virus did, by 28 times.
Moreover, Mosquitoes kill 2,740 people every day, HUMANS kill 1,300 fellow humans every day and Snakes kill 137 people every day."


Everybody can get cancer, heart disease, diabetes, get bit by a mosquito or snake and if you add all that together, millions will die worldwide every year. If everybody can get this new coronavirus, hundreds of millions can die every year.

"CORONAVIRUS IN NUMBERS…AND WHY WE REALLY SHOULDN’T PANIC"


It's okay if the governments want to keep people from panicking but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see how they are behaving with this virus. Do you see them declaring all out war against mosquitos and snakes who you claim are killing more humans than this virus?

Over the past couple of decades, I never posted a thing about the MERS, SARS, swine and bird flu outbreaks. This virus is different so I post on it. It behaves differently and there may never be a cure found and if it's not stopped and we have to live with it, it will change our economies and our behavior forever.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 29, 2020, 06:20:43 PM
BillyB

You had a VERY simple example of how dangerous the virus is versus other FAR more common ways to die..

So, why don't you tell us if you and your family have self isolated?))
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on February 29, 2020, 06:28:18 PM
So, why don't you tell us if you and your family have self isolated?))


I live life normally but I'm also aware how fast this thing can explode and will be prepared. Today the first American died from this virus in a hospital 30 minutes from where I live. Yesterday a teen who lives less than an hour away from me didn't travel and  got infected from an unidentified person. This unidentified person can make this virus explode in my region. If an outbreak happens in America, I'm going to predict it'll happen in the Seattle region first. The recent events in Seattle are a sign an outbreak can happen soon as they will discover hundreds who may have gotten infected like the way it went down in South Korea, Iran, and Italy.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on February 29, 2020, 10:37:06 PM
BillyB

The virus is out there.

Based on your 'logic' and 'doomsday scenarios' you'd be MAD to go out...

In the mean time....in the real world .... I am going to worry about other things.


 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 01, 2020, 08:21:52 AM
China has been negligent. Regardless where this virus came from, it showed up last year and China did nothing except to silence those who were sounding the alarm. They let it get out of control in their country and into other countries affecting lives and economies. Although America has 66 infected, we are throwing billions of dollars to combat the problem and quarantining people last year but China didn't want to spend the money and hurt their reputation. Now they're going to spend a lot more money and take a bigger hit on reputation. If this problem was nipped at the bud, life would be fine. Now we have a real chance of living with this virus forever and it will alter our lives and economy forever.

again blaming china for a virus, assuming it wasn't a weaponized virus is just silly.  virus's happen, it has been that way since the beginning of time. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on March 01, 2020, 08:33:23 AM
measles, is another virus that originated in China, first in cattle, then about 800 years ago jumped to humans and spread westward....
killed millions and millions
Title: the Joos have a vaccine for covid-19
Post by: krimster2 on March 01, 2020, 08:43:51 AM
Joos come to the rescue, and create yet another vaccine, cholera, polio, etc

from the sea of Galilee no less, one of my old snorkle spots, cool stuff on the bottom
http://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

what a dilemma for the Alt-Right
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 01, 2020, 09:56:18 AM

Based on your 'logic' and 'doomsday scenarios' you'd be MAD to go out...


Where did I say for people to wear masks and stay at home? There is a chance that someday we'll be living like the people of Wuhan. Not many photos and videos leaked out but from the few that has, it's a pretty desolate place. I wonder how the government is feeding those 11 million people under complete lockdown.

again blaming china for a virus, assuming it wasn't a weaponized virus is just silly.  virus's happen, it has been that way since the beginning of time. 

Fires happen too. Let's say you got a small fire and call the fire department. They show up and a squirt of water in the kitchen would extinguish it but they say it's lunchtime and waste an hour eating. Instead of your kitchen getting burned up, your whole house burned down and you're angry. They respond "fires happen since the beginning of time. Don't blame us"
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 01, 2020, 05:54:14 PM

Fires happen too. Let's say you got a small fire and call the fire department. They show up and a squirt of water in the kitchen would extinguish it but they say it's lunchtime and waste an hour eating. Instead of your kitchen getting burned up, your whole house burned down and you're angry. They respond "fires happen since the beginning of time. Don't blame us"

i don't see the situation as similar enough to use fire as a valid comparison. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 01, 2020, 06:07:21 PM
i don't see the situation as similar enough to use fire as a valid comparison.

China absolutely dropped the ball when this virus showed up last year. They didn't act but instead arrested medical professional who wanted to act and sound the alarm to put out the fire/virus. The government of Wuhan was giving out 200,000 free tickets to the New Year Celebration and advertising for people to come to the 40,000 family potluck meal so Guinness Book of World's records can document a world record Potluck gathering in January when they knew this virus was going around since December. Not only did they do nothing, they added gas to a kitchen fire and it's costing lives and billions if not trillions of dollars.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 01, 2020, 06:23:04 PM
i don't see the situation as similar enough to use fire as a valid comparison.

It does make sense though, the last few outbreaks tend to be predominantly from rural areas of China. I personally think it's due to not enough health or sanitary standards in place that lead to these host transfers whether it be Pigs, Pangolins or Bats assuming this didnt walk out on the bottom of someone's shoe from a lab.

It is interesting that this came from Beijing the other day....

"the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive entitled “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 02, 2020, 12:21:12 AM
Where did I say for people to wear masks and stay at home?

Hmm is this the BillyB who thinks I've 'sentenced to death a Georgian border officer for telling her a surgical mask is next to useless .that I'm not 'caring for my wife' in Thailand ?



Wearing gloves and not touching her face is far more effective

YOU are the poster 'bigging up' this virus ... hence my 'advice' to "stay at home and wear surgical masks ..."




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 02, 2020, 10:36:49 AM
Hmm is this the BillyB who thinks I've 'sentenced to death a Georgian border officer for telling her a surgical mask is next to useless .


I don't think you've sentence her to death. I think you're an idiot. She may deal with thousands of people everyday and you're increasing the chances she and others getting infected. How did you get her to pull off her mask? Did you tell her you're an infectious disease doctor?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 02, 2020, 12:21:53 PM
I live life normally but I'm also aware how fast this thing can explode and will be prepared. Today the first American died from this virus in a hospital 30 minutes from where I live. Yesterday a teen who lives less than an hour away from me didn't travel and  got infected from an unidentified person. This unidentified person can make this virus explode in my region. If an outbreak happens in America, I'm going to predict it'll happen in the Seattle region first. The recent events in Seattle are a sign an outbreak can happen soon as they will discover hundreds who may have gotten infected like the way it went down in South Korea, Iran, and Italy.

Quote from: Benjamin Franklin
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!

Quote from: Kyle Herring
We're going to err on the side of caution. We're going to run this thing to the ground to make sure we understand it!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 02, 2020, 01:20:28 PM
Today my county reported its first case of COVID-19, someone who had traveled recently to Italy. 

The wife has gone bonkers as if the apocalypse  surrounds us.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on March 02, 2020, 01:47:26 PM
Today my county reported its first case of COVID-19, someone who had traveled recently to Italy. 

The wife has gone bonkers as if the apocalypse  surrounds us.

Don't you have an underground bunker ?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 02, 2020, 01:56:46 PM
Today my county reported its first case of COVID-19, someone who had traveled recently to Italy. 

The wife has gone bonkers as if the apocalypse  surrounds us.


Studies revealed (not sure who actually stood there and counted this) that an average person touches his/her face 3,000 times/day. 24 hours each day being equal, that equates to 125 touches per hour, or a little over twice per minute.


So to ensure she doesn't get the virus, make sure she refrains from touching her face...she can start modestly and be diligent at least for the first few minutes see how she fares after 24 hours.


If she fails to do this, then its time to panic.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on March 02, 2020, 02:07:35 PM

Studies revealed (not sure who actually stood there and counted this) that an average person touches his/her face 3,000 times/day.

I don't really believe that statistic.
I would bet I don't touch my face more than once during each waking hour, not including when washing face or taking shower.

Now there is another part of my body that I might touch a lot . . . if only it would respond appropriately.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 02, 2020, 02:39:11 PM
LMAO!


That's only 'viral' for persons of advanced age..
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 02, 2020, 04:15:39 PM


I don't think you've sentence her to death. I think you're an idiot. She may deal with thousands of people everyday and you're increasing the chances she and others getting infected.

PLE-EASE Explain your 'theory' / 'thought process' that arrives at such a 'conclusion' - given wearing a surgical mask is NOT going to protect her ... and makes it MORE likely she could become ill ..



WHERE do you read the wearing of a mask is necessary / advised in Public Health advisories on this virus?

Two of my colleagues in Georgia ( Rep.of)  are in  / were in medicine as practitioners  ... one had a benign Tumour ( the size of tennis ball  )removed from his thoracic cavity on Jan 14th

IF they wanted surgical masks - they could have brought them and worn them ...


Only an IDIOT would STILL be arguing with folk FAR better qualified and practising what they preach ...



http://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/02/29/no-you-do-not-need-face-masks-for-coronavirus-they-might-increase-your-infection-risk/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/02/29/no-you-do-not-need-face-masks-for-coronavirus-they-might-increase-your-infection-risk/)



How did you get her to pull off her mask? Did you tell her you're an infectious disease doctor?

She asked us "purpose of visit " ..from that she worked out the professions of my colleagues and asked why we weren't wearing masks ...


WHY, after all the fuss you are making - aren't you staying at home and making your family WEAR a mask ? ))


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 02, 2020, 04:53:44 PM
Today my county reported its first case of COVID-19, someone who had traveled recently to Italy. 

The wife has gone bonkers as if the apocalypse  surrounds us.

Tell her about my misery so she'll feel better. 5 deaths in my county. Deaths tripled in my State overnight. There's an infected person at the hospital minutes from where I live. My mom was at Costco yesterday and the lines were the longest she ever seen. A neighbor was at the nearest supermarket and there was no bottled water on the shelves. Over a dozen schools shut down. A 44 story office building has been closed because someone who worked there interacted with a person who's now confirmed infected. My best friend's sister's husband played pool last week with the postal worker that was declared infected yesterday. My Vietnamese uncle, a retired nuke engineer, went on a tour of China last year in November. His train was supposed to pass through Wuhan in the middle of November and was stopped by the Chinese Army. The train was rerouted around Wuhan so he ended up missing that city. Don't want a bunch of tourists with cameras to visit that city. Kind of blows a hole in the theory that the virus was discovered in December.


PLE-EASE Explain your 'theory' / 'thought process' that arrives at such a 'conclusion' - given wearing a surgical mask is NOT going to protect her ... and makes it MORE likely she could become ill ..

WHERE do you read the wearing of a mask is necessary / advised in Public Health advisories on this virus?


You're an idiot. There are people, such as that border agent that deals with the public. If management and infectious disease experts tell their employees to wear masks, you have no business to tell them the masks are useless. If an epidemic hits your town, you can run around without a mask as you please and get yourself killed but leave safety measures to the experts. Life is tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 02, 2020, 05:50:38 PM
...My mom was at Costco yesterday and the lines were the longest she ever seen. A neighbor was at the nearest supermarket and there was no bottled water on the shelves...


...and they say pandemic is bad for the economy.  >:D


I don't understand the water grab though. It isn't like water will stop running off your faucets.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 02, 2020, 06:20:19 PM
I don't understand the water grab though. It isn't like water will stop running off your faucets.


Maybe they think the virus can swim? After all 16% of those polled think the virus could be in Corona beer. I think our government should located that 16% of the population and revoke their right to vote.

http://www.boston25news.com/news/trending/corona-beer-sales-taking-hit-because-coronavirus-outbreak/ORXV24ZXMZAZDJCBIM7K55MRUE/

My friend texted me and said the lines in the supermarket are all the way to the back of the store. Glad I don't have to go out shopping.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 02, 2020, 06:52:55 PM


You're an idiot. There are people, such as that border agent that deals with the public. If management and infectious disease experts tell their employees to wear masks, you have no business to tell them the masks are useless. If an epidemic hits your town, you can run around without a mask as you please and get yourself killed but leave safety measures to the experts. Life is tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid.


 What is a person who states that a govt agency with a clue  instructed staff to wear surgical masks...  as opposed to the staff being issued them - if they prefer to wear them?








Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 02, 2020, 07:32:36 PM

So to ensure she doesn't get the virus, make sure she refrains from touching her face...she can start modestly and be diligent at least for the first few minutes see how she fares after 24 hours.


She is well informed on safe practices.  Her RW  network had the news on the case in our county before I saw it on the news.  Her strategy is for me to do all the shopping while she stays home.  Upon arrival she sprays me with Lysol, and it has to rest for 30 seconds before I wash it off.     

She worries more about her son going to his college classes.   He is careful, however.   
Title: How Western Civilization Collapsed in North America - Day 1
Post by: krimster2 on March 02, 2020, 08:02:34 PM
http://www.chron.com/news/local/article/Coronavirus-patient-released-in-San-Antonio-went-15098649.php

so now we know what happens when we put Republicans in charge of public health!
Hello President Biden!

my guess for when my neighbors and I will be setting up a roadblock at the front gate of our neighborhood and armed neighborhood watch night patrols
I predict...I will be doing this 3 years from now...
if I decide to live in the USA when this hits
depends on how stable Russia and Costa Rica are...

I swear, I have the worst damned luck sometimes, I just got over being an outside school security monitor for 2 hours per day
and thought I was free
but no, it's gonna get even worse, cuz I'll have to do it late at night now AND pack iron...

separate from "just" raw survival
is the impact on all of my businesses
and if my renters lose their jobs, they won't be able to pay their rent
plus, once your local hospital starts getting local cases, then you won't want to go there for ANY reason
even your gall bladder

I predict that when we get to 1,000 cases we will start to see things disappear from store shelves at an alarming rate

at 10,000 cases all schools and non vital government offices will be closed
restaurants will close
no one will want to take public transport
incidents of violent looting are being reported

meanwhile Gold becomes worth more than Gold
I also bought a lot of ammo for bartering

walking dead but without zombies
and I am freakin ready for this sh$t Holmes!


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 02, 2020, 10:53:00 PM
Upon arrival she sprays me with Lysol, and it has to rest for 30 seconds before I wash it off.     
 

My wife sprays Lysol after I use the bathroom to kill the stink. Fortunately she doesn't spray it on me. Lysol says on the can it kills cold and flu viruses. If you want your wife to stop spraying it on you, tell her the viruses are in the inside of your body, not outside. That might be a bad idea though if she decides to inject Lysol into your veins.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Grumpy on March 02, 2020, 11:50:34 PM
My wife sprays Lysol after I use the bathroom to kill the stink. Fortunately she doesn't spray it on me. Lysol says on the can it kills cold and flu viruses. If you want your wife to stop spraying it on you, tell her the viruses are in the inside of your body, not outside. That might be a bad idea though if she decides to inject Lysol into your veins.

Careful placement of the Lysol should kill the virus and the stink simultaneously.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 03, 2020, 06:09:33 AM
Wifey and I had already discussed that depending how this matter progress, or regress, what our next step will be. Certainly getting equipped with N99/KN95 masks is at the top of the list. The only problem with that at this time is, it only comes in one color. Bummer.

http://emgeneral.com/products/anti-pollution-bacteria-and-viruses-mask

If we wore one of these, we could be mistaken as bank robbers and get shot.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 03, 2020, 07:04:09 AM
...tell her the viruses are in the inside of your body, not outside.

That would terminate kissing, snuggling, any physical intimacy, although that has declined after the start of the wave of COVID fear. 

To be precise, she sprays my hands, the door knobs, counter tops.

She worries too much, yet that is her.  She has seen a lot of turmoil in life, much more than Americans in their protected lives, more than RW who moved to America in their 20s.   She may question why I do not worry, yet she relishes the confidence I give her in all matters, not just viruses. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 03, 2020, 07:12:11 AM
The US COVID-19 testing capacity (test kits and approved laboratories) is increasing.  Supposedly, by the end of next week the US should be able to do 20,000 tests per day.   That will provide some data about how widespread the virus is among our population. 

Other news:  We should have therapeutic medicine by the fall.  That does not give me much comfort.  Regarding a vaccine, maybe next year. 

Wash those hands.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 03, 2020, 08:54:34 AM
Regarding a vaccine, maybe next year. 


Although we read laboratories are close to finding a cure/vaccine or have potentially found one, the cure/vaccine may never be discovered. This new virus is related to the common cold virus, not the flu virus. There is no cure/Vaccines for cold viruses. For decades, our best minds and technology haven't discovered one. This virus is too deadly to live with it like we do cold viruses. It must be eradicated from the human body.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on March 03, 2020, 02:35:26 PM
"lysol sprays?"

my wife puts on a disposable haz-mat suit, takes my shop cart
and fills it with gallon jugs of “triple-distilled” lysol
cuz the stuff you buy in stores, is 70% water
pours all the jugs into the pressure washer’s reservoir tank
and let’s her rip! (don’t forget to take out the toilette paper and magazines first)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 03, 2020, 02:46:30 PM
Maybe I'm not old enough, but anyone else remember when the Flu infected 10% of Congress? With how this virus is no different than the Flu I'd think we could remember.

"1 In 10 Iranian MPs Have Tested Positive For Coronavirus, Deputy Speaker Said
Iran has the third-highest number of coronavirus cases outside of China, but the second-highest number of deaths."

http://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/matthewchampion/coronavirus-iran-mps-covid-19
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on March 03, 2020, 09:35:57 PM
"With how this virus is no different than the Flu I'd think we could remember."


no...
covid-19 has a 50% higher R0 or reproducibility rate than this yea's flu virus
which means each covid-19 infected person would on average infect about 50% more people than this year's flu virus would infect, and look how many MILLIONS get the flu every year in the USA
what if 50% more than that got covid-19?
which is what the potential is of this disease based on its R0

covid-19 is also now apparently about 40 times as lethal as this year's flu virus, even more so if you are over age 60...

if the same number of people were infected with covid-19 as were infected so far with the flu
the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands each year in the USA and whole economy grind to a halt
you'll have to worry about social disorder and even famine as well as other medical issues

also, consider this, covid-19 is just actually a heavily mutated version of SARS...
a disease that was completely unknown just 20 years ago...
this is now the 4th SARS outbreak
and this most recent one, is already 100 times worse than the last 3 put together...
what do you think the next one will be like, which should be in about 5-7 years or so
or what if two separate strains of covid-19 recombine in a human host, like they did with the Spanish Flu that killed 30 million world wide in 1918-1919?
what would the covid-19 or covid-23 version of the Spanish Flu be like?
how many millions do you think would die?
how many millions before civilization completely collapses?


here's my take...

the epidemic is entering a new phase in the USA
as the number of new cases begins to decrease in China, so does the number of new cases coming to the USA from China...
but in the last week the dynamics of the disease began to change
instead of being either recent travelers from China or someone who had close contact with one
new cases began to merge with no known connection to any other infected person, and someone who it's been determined ONLY had contact with locals
we think that this means that there are about 1,500 hidden unknown carriers of covid-19 in the USA right now

we are now in a race with the clock, the disease has established a local reservoir in the USA
the only question is, "how fast is it going to grow"?

the disease will develop in two stages...
a linear stage and an exponential stage...
we are at the early linear stage, and the virus season should really be at the cusp of being over soon in the northern hemisphere
we think the higher temperature will reduce the growth of the disease...

but what happens next October, when the flu season starts up again?
what will the infection rates be then?

since we already passed the 100 mark...
I'll take a guess that the next milestone will either be 400 or 500...
and at 1,000 we start to see some fundamental changes in our society and economy

then next year and the year after it'll get "really bad" IMHO...

something as simple as a virus...
but this horseman does not ride alone
disease, war, famine, poverty
the four ghost riders in the sky


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 03, 2020, 10:42:05 PM

North Korea, sandwiched between the two nations with the most infections, insists it has no coronavirus infections in its country. Chinese ambassador is asking UN for sanctions relief for North Korea stating North Korea is suffering but refuses to say what North Korea is suffering from.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ever-secretive-north-korea-says-it-has-no-coronavirus-–-despite-mounting-clues-to-the-contrary/ar-BB10FHVm?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 04, 2020, 12:47:05 AM
For those STILL believing a mask 'helps' :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51729647 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51729647)

A spokesman said Public Health England informed the ASA [ UK's advertising standard's agency ] "that they do not recommend the use of face masks as a means of protection from coronavirus".



Keep washing your hands and try not to touch your face


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 04, 2020, 06:27:14 AM

Nowhere in that article it said masks don't help. You keep looking for validation to tell people masks don't work. You won't find it so you consider a health organization recommendation your validation.

There's not enough masks to go around so health organizations want to reserve what is available for health care workers and those that are actually sick. Why should health care workers wear a mask if they're not sick? It's easy to figure it out. Because they do help health care workers from getting contracting the virus.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 04, 2020, 08:12:32 AM
Well, BillyB if you feel 'safer' wearing a respirator for protection, especially living in close proximity with the highest number of covid-19 cases in the country, you should.

Now, if taking CDC's recommendation regarding respirators (face mask), just make sure it's rated as a 95, or better, a 99. Designation shown below from CDC's website:

~ An N-95 respirator is one of nine types of disposable particulate respirators. Particulate respirators are also known as “air-purifying respirators” because they protect by filtering particles out of the air as you breathe. These respirators protect only against particles—not gases or vapors. Since airborne biological agents such as bacteria or viruses are particles, they can be filtered by particulate respirators.

Respirators that filter out at least 95% of airborne particles during “worse case” testing using a “most-penetrating” sized particle are given a 95 rating. Those that filter out at least 99% receive a “99” rating. And those that filter at least 99.97% (essentially 100%) receive a “100” rating.

Respirators in this family are rated as N, R, or P for protection against oils. This rating is important in industry because some industrial oils can degrade the filter performance so it doesn’t filter properly.* Respirators are rated “N,” if they are Not resistant to oil, “R” if somewhat Resistant to oil, and “P” if strongly resistant (oil Proof). Thus, there are nine types of disposable particulate respirators:

N-95, N-99, and N-100; R-95, R-99, and R-100; P-95, P-99, and P-100 ~
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 04, 2020, 08:15:52 AM
Well, BillyB if you feel 'safer' wearing a respirator for protection, especially living in close proximity with the highest number of covid-19 cases in the country, you should.

Now, if taking CDC's recommendation regarding respirators (face mask), just make sure it's rated as a 95, or better, a 99. Designation shown below from CDC's website:

one of my silly adorable daughters ordered a bunch of the good facemasks online for all of us.   i think it is nice caring gesture.  I don't suspect they will ever get used, and if it comes to that, i think there will be big problems for the nation. 

Fathertime!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 04, 2020, 08:43:11 AM
one of my silly adorable daughters ordered a bunch of the good facemasks online for all of us.   i think it is nice caring gesture.  I don't suspect they will ever get used, and if it comes to that, i think there will be big problems for the nation. 

Fathertime!

Ever heard of a phrase: 'Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it'?

I have more than a few in my work SUV at our immediate disposal because these are vital components of our overall safety program (IIPP). Safety glasses, gloves, safety vest, hard hat, boots, etc...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 04, 2020, 10:00:26 AM

here's my take...

You write a mostly reasonable analysis, so why the emotionally charged introduction "...how many millions do you think would die?  how many millions before civilization completely collapses?"

Quote
covid-19 has a 50% higher R0 or reproducibility rate than this yea's flu virus

This is your only example of understating the situation.  Flu has a R0 ("R nought") of 1.3.   In contrast, COVID-19 in January in China was 2.5, almost 100% higher.  See graph notes: 


http://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/samples/2020/01/DashVirus012820.png

A huge question is what were China's criteria for reporting a COVID-19 infection reflected on the chart.   I would surmise it was only the patients displaying serious symptoms requiring healthcare (supposedly about 20% of the cases).

Quote
the epidemic is entering a new phase in the USA

Yes, the new phase of "community spreading."


Quote
we think that this means that there are about 1,500 hidden unknown carriers of covid-19 in the USA right now

1500 is way too high.  It was inevitable that a few asymptomatic carriers would enter the US undetected.  1500 is what could have happened if Trump had not restricted China travelers in January, even though he was criticized then by some Democrats.   

If we have 1500 "COVID-19 Mary's" we are in deep kaka.  "Typhoid Mary" is a classic epidemiological study case in the early  20th C of a disease outbreak traceable to a single carrier. 

The relatively small number of lab tests performed to date raises doubts about any prediction of the number of asymptomatic carriers.    The now accelerating incidences of testing, coupled with epidemiological research, will provide a more accurate assessment in two weeks.  Check back then.

Quote
we are now in a race with the clock, the disease has established a local reservoir in the USA
the only question is, "how fast is it going to grow"?  ....a linear stage and an exponential stage...

Partially correct. 

The initial phase is referred to as the lag phase.    It soon accelerates to a logarithmic, not exponential phase, if unchecked. This is exactly what happened in January in China at a R0 of 2.5, as shown in the chart I cited above. 

What happened next?  The logarithmic phase diminished as China implemented severe measures to curtail social contact.   This is shown in a second chart from China predicting the then current rate would infect 138 million persons by 20 February; however, the actual number of reported cases of infection today is only 80,000.     

 http://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/samples/2020/01/DashVirusProgression012820b.png

In conclusion,   this disease can be controlled.  One problem in America is our society will not implement quarantine measures as severe as China's.   



Quote
but what happens next October, when the flu season starts up again?
what will the infection rates be then?

COVID-19 will become a normal, hopefully small,  component of our flu season.  A vaccine is two years away given America's safety measures for its development.  Perhaps China, who is not known for its public safety, will develop a vaccine sooner.   An effective  therapeutic drug regimen should occur sooner. 

Meanwhile, be cautious but do not overreact.   It is not doomsday. form a public health standpoint.  Yet, the ripple effect of society's response will create an economic slowdown, perhaps even a recession.  Yuck!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 04, 2020, 02:02:47 PM
Billy, if it'll make you feel any better, wifey tells me that her sisters in Germany and Canada just sent her pictures of their respective empty shelves for hand sanitizers. So she went to our drugstores and marts and saw the same thing. Empty shelves. She asked me to go search for it around where I work - same result.

Walmart, Target, CVS, Amazon, etc...pooof! Out of stock.

The shelf for those pocket and smaller sized disinfectant wipes is nearly gone, too.



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 04, 2020, 05:22:18 PM
Well, BillyB if you feel 'safer' wearing a respirator for protection, especially living in close proximity with the highest number of covid-19 cases in the country, you should.


Currently I and my wife do not wear masks but we are altering our behavior and not going out as often. I save the masks I have for when I really need it but masks are important for those who are sick and those who tend to the sick because they work. But there will be Jokers like Moby who go around to government employees who work in public settings and to hospitals telling medical workers their masks don't work. Why do people conclude they are the authority on something after reading the news?

Billy, if it'll make you feel any better, wifey tells me that her sisters in Germany and Canada just sent her pictures of their respective empty shelves for hand sanitizers. So she went to our drugstores and marts and saw the same thing. Empty shelves. She asked me to go search for it around where I work - same result.

Walmart, Target, CVS, Amazon, etc...pooof! Out of stock.

The shelf for those pocket and smaller sized disinfectant wipes is nearly gone, too.


I didn't wait in lines. I bought a bunch of stuff off Amazon and will let them bring it to me. Even Amazon is taking a long time with their food deliveries now. Chances are the overwhelming majority isn't going to experience an epidemic in their cities but those who are prepared now won't have to stand in lines later fighting over crumbs on the shelves.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on March 04, 2020, 08:51:35 PM
Two men wearing face masks showed up at local bank today.

The customers and employees were greatly relieved when the men said:

"Don't worry, we are only here to rob you."
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 04, 2020, 10:00:29 PM
Ever heard of a phrase: 'Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it'?

I have more than a few in my work SUV at our immediate disposal because these are vital components of our overall safety program (IIPP). Safety glasses, gloves, safety vest, hard hat, boots, etc...

yes, that is a good adage.   i'm rather unprepared myself despite what could come to pass.  i throw myself out in public and just hope for the best.  if i lived with billyb lived I might start to take some more precautions.

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 04, 2020, 10:28:08 PM
But there will be Jokers like Moby who go around to government employees who work in public settings and to hospitals telling medical workers their masks don't work. Why do people conclude they are the authority on something after reading the news?

Because they studied Biology to an advanced  level ( specialising in genetics) and understand .. Gosh these jokers aren't in biz with micro-biologists and retired surgeons ....  We haven't been travelling around parts of Europe and Asia - 'marvelling' at the antics of some govts to 'control' said virus ..?

I'm of the opinion that it's better to get it .. and be done - rather than wait until it might be the health service is over-stretched..

We're not changing our life-style worrying about something that's far less likely to end us than being in a RTA..



 

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 05, 2020, 12:17:10 AM
Because they studied Biology to an advanced  level ( specialising in genetics) and understand .. Gosh these jokers aren't in biz with micro-biologists and retired surgeons ....  We haven't been travelling around parts of Europe and Asia - 'marvelling' at the antics of some govts to 'control' said virus ..?


You know those guys personally? They must be as nutty as you. Governments are issuing out masks to health care workers who are handling infected patients. Why don't you visit those hospitals and tell them medical professionals the protective gear they're wearing is useless and see what they say?

http://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-03/battling-coronavirus-california-distributing-millions-of-face-masks-to-health-care-providers

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-needs-millions-face-masks-not-very-effective-preventing-coronavirus-2020-2


I'm of the opinion that it's better to get it .. and be done - rather than wait until it might be the health service is over-stretched..


Go get it and you might be done done. Also the virus won't be done with you. You can keep catching it. Rich Chinese are bribing guards to get their families out of quarantined cities. I'm sure you can bribe a guard to get into one of those cities to get your virus.

Today WHO announced the death rate is at 3.4% and higher than previously thought! They were guessing previously? All of a sudden the death rate jumped 70% worldwide! When the virus came out, it was claimed it's not deadlier than the flu which kill .1% of the people it infects. Later this corona virus was thought to kill 2%. Now modern nations are reporting much higher death rates than China to bring up the death rate to 3.4% worldwide which is 34 times deadlier than the flu. I can tell you that is still a low number.

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

Today at the John Hopkins website that keeps track of this virus,  reported 2,647,665 infections worldwide for a short time it and then it got changed back into the 90k range. Somebody making an effort to get the truth out? Hacker games?



We're not changing our life-style worrying about something that's far less likely to end us than being in a RTA..


It's people like you that makes it hard to stop the virus. I got a worker who goes to the bar a lot. Kisses and sleeps with various women a lot. I told him to change his behavior if he wants to be around me. Pick a girl and go exclusive with her for a short time.

People don't have to stop living but everybody needs to participate to prevent the virus being spread recklessly. China, South Korea, Italy, and Dubai have closed all schools. Governments expect stupid to happen so they take action. Quit being stupid. Maybe you don't care about your life but at least care about others.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 05, 2020, 12:57:02 AM
You know those guys personally? They must be as nutty as you.

Must do, they took the same four flights I did .. :rolleyes:  As to who's 'nuts' .. Only one of us is posting about stuff, proving he doesn't understand .


Governments are issuing out masks to health care workers who are handling infected patients. Why don't you visit those hospitals and tell them medical professionals the protective gear they're wearing is useless and see what they say?

http://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-03/battling-coronavirus-california-distributing-millions-of-face-masks-to-health-care-providers

I highlighted in bold the relevant part ... INFECTED PATIENTS ...    Are they wearing them in the street, or when they go off duty ... ?

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-needs-millions-face-masks-not-very-effective-preventing-coronavirus-2020-2

Go get it and you might be done done. Also the virus won't be done with you. You can keep catching it. Rich Chinese are bribing guards to get their families out of quarantined cities. I'm sure you can bribe a guard to get into one of those cities to get your virus.

Today WHO announced the death rate is at 3.4% and higher than previously thought! They were guessing previously? All of a sudden the death rate jumped 70% worldwide! When the virus came out, it was claimed it's not deadlier than the flu which kill .1% of the people it infects. Later this corona virus was thought to kill 2%. Now modern nations are reporting much higher death rates than China to bring up the death rate to 3.4% worldwide which is 34 times deadlier than the flu. I can tell you that is still a low number. 

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

*I* can tell that BillyB sucks at stats..  WHO figures ..excl China ( who's figures you do not trust !) 11962 confirmed cases  208 deaths ...  1,7 percent

Many cases of the Virus are so mild - they aren't reported / known to BE a notifiable case.. so the numbers are lower ..



Today at the John Hopkins website that keeps track of this virus,  reported 2,647,665 infections worldwide for a short time it and then it got changed back into the 90k range. Somebody making an effort to get the truth out? Hacker games?

There's another BillyB 'conspiracy theory ' to track down ..   :popcorn:

It's people like you that makes it hard to stop the virus. I got a worker who goes to the bar a lot. Kisses and sleeps with various women a lot. I told him to change his behavior if he wants to be around me. Pick a girl and go exclusive with her for a short time.

It's people like YOU that cause shortages of stuff, through panic buying and ignorance ... Your worker needs to find a new boss

People don't have to stop living but everybody needs to participate to prevent the virus being spread recklessly. China, South Korea, Italy, and Dubai have closed all schools. Governments expect stupid to happen so they take action. Quit being stupid. Maybe you don't care about your life but at least care about others.

Silly BillyB

I  understand there may come a time when our govts may ask us to stop travelling and mixing with large numbers of people..

Italy was the sole EU nation to ban flights to and from China...WAY before their numbers spiked ...   THAT  'worked out well' ..

I'm still pointing out that washing your hands is a FAR better preventative precaution to wearing face masks ..

I'm still pointing out that you're FAR more likely to die from some other cause ..



As to 'reinfection' ... 

http://www.euronews.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-can-you-catch-covid-19-twice-euronews-answers  (http://www.euronews.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-can-you-catch-covid-19-twice-euronews-answers)

Highly unlikely ...





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 05, 2020, 08:16:20 AM
as of last night the carona virus has suddenly sprung up a few miles away, walking distance.  I suppose I'll casually stock up a bit on some of the essentials.   
  As a side note, one of the lines of products I have for sale is exercise equipment, over the past few weeks there has been a lot more sales than expected.  I conclude that people are staying out of the gym, and choosing to exercise at home away from other people and the corona virus.   

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 05, 2020, 08:44:58 AM
I highlighted in bold the relevant part ... INFECTED PATIENTS ...    Are they wearing them in the street, or when they go off duty ... ?


So you want to revise your previous statement that masks don't work? Seems like you're acknowledging they will stop the virus when near an infected patient.

Many cases of the Virus are so mild - they aren't reported / known to BE a notifiable case.. so the numbers are lower ..


You think like a Chinese Communist leader. You are willing to include infected people we don't know about to lower the death rate but you fail to included infected dead people we do not know about into the death rate to raise the death rate.

We can calculate death rate with what we do KNOW,  those confirmed recovered and dead. Don't speculate there are more infected and dead out there undetected and will decrease or increase the death rate to help with your narrative on what is actually happening. Nobody knows if they had the flu or corona virus then recovered or died undetected. It's too late to test them.

Right now, Italy reports 107 dead and 276 recovered after a battle with the virus. That's a 28% death rate for them at this moment which means it's 280 times more deadlier than the flu.

The Chinese province of Zhejiang of near the same population as Italy reports 1 dead and 1124 people recovered. .09% death rate which means less people there are dying from this virus than the flu.

Now you can continue to believe the Chinese has some kind of super immune system over Italians but I will continue to state Chinese severely under reports how bad the virus is. So while mortality rates are extremely high in most other nations, the Chinese brings death rate way down since they have the bulk of the cases so WHO now concludes death rate is 3.4%. I trust the Italian numbers more than the Chinese. As the rest of the world increases infections, deaths and recoveries and add more weight to offset the low Chinese death rate, you can expect WHO to revise the death rates even higher.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 05, 2020, 08:50:35 AM
as of last night the carona virus has suddenly sprung up a few miles away, walking distance.  I suppose I'll casually stock up a bit on some of the essentials.   
  As a side note, one of the lines of products I have for sale is exercise equipment, over the past few weeks there has been a lot more sales than expected.  I conclude that people are staying out of the gym, and choosing to exercise at home away from other people and the corona virus.   

Fathertime!

Hi FT !

We had a case around here weeks ago... the teacher had it...  brought it from SE Asia ..  No one has caught it the school is open again ..  You'll be fine ;)

Took Mum to the local General Practitioners Surgery - she had an ear infection ...  NO staff wearing masks - just lots of WASH YOUR HANDS..




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 05, 2020, 09:10:00 AM
So you want to revise your previous statement that masks don't work? Seems like you're acknowledging they will stop the virus when near an infected patient.
 

Nope. You simply don't understand why masks are worn PERIOD in isolation wards ...STD PRACTICE ...




Right now, Italy reports 107 dead and 276 recovered after a battle with the virus. That's a 28% death rate for them at this moment which means it's 280 times more deadlier than the flu.

WHY are you quoting more bollox, Silly BillyB ?  Those infected is always behind ...

WHO figures for Italy 4th March :


Confirmed cases: 2502, Deaths 80 - that's 3.8 percent





The Chinese province of Zhejiang of near the same population as Italy reports 1 dead and 1124 people recovered. .09% death rate which means less people there are dying from this virus than the flu.


You're not even accurate ... Source WHO Zhejiang    http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200304-sitrep-44-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=783b4c9d_6
 (http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200304-sitrep-44-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=783b4c9d_6)


Confirmed cases: 1213


Deaths Confirmed:1

Italy is larger


Now you can continue to believe the Chinese has some kind of super immune system over Italians but I will continue to state Chinese severely under reports how bad the virus is. So while mortality rates are extremely high in most other nations, the Chinese brings death rate way down since they have the bulk of the cases so WHO now concludes death rate is 3.4%. I trust the Italian numbers more than the Chinese. As the rest of the world increases infections, deaths and recoveries and add more weight to offset the low Chinese death rate, you can expect WHO to revise the death rates even higher.

Hubei is more accurately closer to Italy and the figures are:

67332 cases , 2871 deaths - just over 4%


I think the cases reported are seriously UNDER reported ...   some folks won't even know they had it ...



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 05, 2020, 10:14:21 AM
Hi FT !

We had a case around here weeks ago... the teacher had it...  brought it from SE Asia ..  No one has caught it the school is open again ..  You'll be fine ;)

Took Mum to the local General Practitioners Surgery - she had an ear infection ...  NO staff wearing masks - just lots of WASH YOUR HANDS..
Hey Mooby! 
A delightful/upbeat movie from the UK was Threads which I'm sure you saw back in the day.  I like the English way of just 'carrying on'.    Either I, or one of kids will go buy our little toilet paper and 'foodstuffs' and lets see how it all plays out.  I've got a nice angry wound to attend to so I'll try to stay behind the computer more.   No mask wearing just yet, and I'm a filthy guy so I won't even wash my hands enough.   

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 05, 2020, 06:32:28 PM
WHO figures for Italy 4th March :

Confirmed cases: 2502, Deaths 80 - that's 3.8 percent


You don't seem to understand how death rates work after talking about it. On the 5th of March, Italy reports 3858 infections, 148 deaths, and 414 recoveries. To calculate death rate, you calculate with those who finished their battle with the virus. 148 deaths vs 414 recoveries means 562 Italians finished their fight with the virus. Since 148 died, it's a 26.3% death rate.

Try this exercise. Since there are still over 3000 Italians fighting for their lives against the virus tell them "I'm collecting data for mortality rates. Did you survive the virus or did you die from this virus?" They would answer "You're an idiot". That is because you are trying to label them into the survivor category or died category when you're not supposed to do that until their fight with the virus is over. Even those who are 5 yo, are sick, dumb, and have dementia would know your question is stupid and it's stupid trying to lump those currently infected into the survivor category to bring down the death rates. Some of those currently infected will be going into the dead pool.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 05, 2020, 07:22:10 PM
Data on number of cases is suspect because of limited capacity for lab tests.  A couple of sources have said only 500 Americans have been subjected to lab tests.   

Those with a high fever and no respiratory symptoms were probably misdiagnosed as something other than COVID-19 unless confirmed by lab tests. 


Thus, death rate estimates are also suspect.   We will know more in 1-2 weeks.   

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 05, 2020, 07:39:32 PM
Data on number of cases is suspect because of limited capacity for lab tests.  A couple of sources have said only 500 Americans have been subjected to lab tests.   

Those with a high fever and no respiratory symptoms were probably misdiagnosed as something other than COVID-19 unless confirmed by lab tests. 


Thus, death rate estimates are also suspect.   We will know more in 1-2 weeks.   

There's a lot of people that died from this virus that aren't counted too. Their listed cause of death may be pneumonia or flu when the corona virus is to blame. If they were counted, the death rate may hold or go up. There's a lot of stories trying to bring the numbers down so we don't worry but yesterday WHO raised the death rate by 70%. Previously they said it was 2%. Now they say it's 3.4%. They were way off then and they're still way off.

China reports 80k Chinese been infected which means 1 out of 17,325 people in their country got the virus. South Korea reports 6000 infections which means one out of 8578 people in their country got the virus. In a shorter time and with earlier warnings South Korea has double the rate of infections among it's people than China. Since the virus started in China and went undetected longer there than in any country, one would think China would have the highest rate of infections among it's people by far over other nations. They are grossly under reporting infections and deaths. My mom reads news out of Asia and they are burning MASSIVE amounts of bodies. But China reports only 3383 deaths which is nothing for a population of over 1.3 billion. Their crematories should be able to handle a few thousand extra bodies but not true. Crematories are working 24/7 and bodies continue to pile outside the crematories waiting for their turn to burn.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 05, 2020, 10:37:19 PM
You don't seem to understand

BillyB - when it comes to common sense and arithmetic , you are bereft .. 

I asked you, yesterday, where you sourced your WHO 'statement' re a higher percentage re mortality and you've not responded - other than producing BillyB Bollox data..

A reminder, from a recently retired  NHS theatre nurse ( I studied with her ) as to PERSPECTIVE ..

(http://i.imgur.com/FIVuYYg.jpg)




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 05, 2020, 10:59:09 PM
I asked you, yesterday, where you sourced your WHO 'statement' re a higher percentage re mortality and you've not responded - other than producing BillyB Bollox data..


Google WHO 3.4% and you'll find a lot of news articles including the WHO statement at their own website. Also you participated at the other forum where someone put a news article link with that info. It's easy to find this info, especially when it's handed to you so I ignored your request and just thought you were acting dumb again. You're asking for it again so I now realize you weren't acting.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 06, 2020, 12:51:31 AM
SillyBillyB,

The 'soundbite factoid' you sought was,
"Globally, about 3.4% of REPORTED COVID-19 cases have died".

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020 (http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020)

You 'missed' ...

"Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.

However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far."

Now..What has he told us today ...?

"The fight against rumours and misinformation is a vital part of the battle against this virus. We rely on you to make sure people have accurate information about the threat they face, and how to protect themselves and others.

Now to the numbers.

There is now a total of 95,265 reported cases of COVID-19 globally, and 3281 deaths. "


"3.4% "

"We see encouraging signs from the Republic of Korea. The number of newly-reported cases appears to be declining, and the cases that are being reported are being identified primarily from known clusters. "


Now let's check WHO.int numbers for today ..

Based on reported cases v Deaths  ..


China = 3.7%
and

the Rest of the World ..1.8%


http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200305-sitrep-45-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=ed2ba78b_2 (http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200305-sitrep-45-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=ed2ba78b_2)

Remind me, which poster doesn't 'trust' China's figures ?









Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 06, 2020, 07:59:44 AM

Now let's check WHO.int numbers for today ..

Based on reported cases v Deaths  ..

China = 3.7%
and

the Rest of the World ..1.8%

Reported cases isn't death rate. I'm going to take 4 regions of the world with similar populations and compare them. Two regions are known to be more dishonest with what is going on than the others. Two regions are not 1st World nations. Guess which two are being dishonest using today's numbers.

South Korea reports 42 deaths and 135 recoveries

Italy reports 148 deaths and 414 recoveries

Iran reports 124 deaths and 913 recoveries

Chinese province of Zhejiang reports 1 death and 1147 recoveries

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Also in a much shorter time and given warning the virus is floating around South Korea, Italy, and Iran all have higher rates of infection among it's population than China who got it first and didn't take action on it right away.

Whatever you do or they report to imply death rate is low, it's BS. The death rate will climb but never to the true number because of dishonest reporting and there are many deaths that doesn't get reported because the bodies were never tested for the virus and thus blame of death will be recorded as influenza or pneumonia.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 06, 2020, 08:14:13 AM
I say again, anyone calculating  a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is pushing the existing data too far.  Not only are the data limited if not suspect, the data are not comparable (apples and oranges) from nation to nation.   For example, Iran's initially reported 2 cases and 2 deaths - that's a 100% CFR.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 06, 2020, 08:57:24 AM
I say again, anyone calculating  a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is pushing the existing data too far.  Not only are the data limited if not suspect, the data are not comparable (apples and oranges) from nation to nation.   For example, Iran's initially reported 2 cases and 2 deaths - that's a 100% CFR.   

It's why I talk about nations that have thousands of cases. I trust Italy's and South Korea's reporting and so far in their nations, for every 3 people who recover, one person has died. That's a 25% death rate and that is very alarming. WHO is careful not to create panic but they can see what is going on in developed countries such as South Korea and Italy now that their pool of people is bigger and understand mortality rates are a lot worse than China's, which was the go to nation to gauge since they had the first big pool of infected. WHO has now told all nations to put out ALL stops against this virus and said "This is not a drill". Governments need people to function normally to prosper so they tell us things so we don't panic but this virus is different. I've been on this forum for years and people can search for my past posts and see I didn't post anything on SARS, MERS, and the various swine and bird flus that the world had to experience over the last few decades. This virus is different and I agree with WHO that governments need to everything they can to stop it. The death rate is too high for humanity to live with and because it's related to the cold virus, a cure may never be found.

I read the WHO link below and they never said the death/mortality rate is 3.4%. They said "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died." WHO didn't say that was current mortality rate but the media wrongly translated it to be that. Reported cases can't be included in the mortality rate until we learn if the infected will live or die after their battle with the virus. The death rate is higher. Many cases of those who died from the virus got recorded as dying from pneumonia and influenza. More deaths will happen without those bodies being properly tested and thus properly recorded since the test kits are reserved for those who are alive.

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Edited to add South Korea is investing $25 billion dollars to fight the virus which is big money in a country of 51 million. They are investing almost $500 per person to fight the virus. The S Korean Prez Moon calls the situation "grave".

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3064709/coronavirus-south-koreas-cases-hit-4812-28-deaths-moon-jae
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on March 06, 2020, 11:33:42 AM
it appears there are two strains, the newer one much more virulent than the earlier one
so the lethality is increasing over time
virologists expected this to happen
because these types of virus can recombine in the host and create a novel virus
that out competes the other two and spreads more
and when more and more people are infected then the new more lethal strains will come even faster

if I could "short" the human species right now, in a couple of years, I'd have quite a bundle


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 06, 2020, 11:35:37 AM
At this very early stages of any pandemic, any report that tries to establish a kill rate ratio (averaging method) will always be flawed, BillyB. There were 3 infected people in California reported recently, and yesterday apparently one of them died. A 33% kill ratio? I think not on the basis that we have absolutely no basis of information exactly how many was actually infected when the 'first' lone case became known.

100 cases may already be established but were undiagnosed, which then would make that lone casualty credit COVID-19 with a mere 1% kill rate. The flu, according to CDC's estimates, have killed (HE) 52,000 people from 10/19 - 2/20 against an estimated people that were sick of the flu during the period at 49,000,000. This would credit the flu with a 1/10th kill rate ratio.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Bottom line is, establishing death rates right now is useless. It's nothing more than an invisible boogeyman in a darkened room.

The unfortunate known pattern we have so far is that COVID-19, while no one is immune to it at this time, has consistently shown to only be fatal to the elderly with medical condition. Obviously, people with very low immunity level.

So far.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 06, 2020, 11:57:24 AM
At this very early stages of any pandemic, any report that tries to establish a kill rate ratio (averaging method) will always be flawed, BillyB. There were 3 infected people in California reported recently, and yesterday apparently one of them died. A 33% kill ratio?


Because of the large sampling pool of people, it's why I talk about South Korea and Italy's numbers, not California's. Even Iran now has a large sample pool of people and a horrible death rate but it's not going to be as reliable as South Korea's and Italy's. Statistics are important. As more reliable nations report accurate information, the situation becomes clear and it's much more grim than what China has shown it to be. With more reliable reports coming in, facts can be formulated and there's enough information now to the point WHO is asking every nation to throw everything they have to fight the virus. This is not a drill.

Back in January I factored the under reporting of China and death rate from the small sample, learned the characteristics of this virus, and learned a vaccine/cure many never happen, I sounded the alarm back then. This virus is really bad shit and could kill billions if Italy's and South Korea's death to recovery ratio holds. Numbers may go down a little since the best doctors and respirators to assist breathing are helping currently infected people beat the virus but if it gets out of control and everybody got the virus, there's not enough best doctors and respiratory equipment to go around so the death rate will skyrocket if humanity can't control the virus. This can become a worldwide plague that will make the history books unless we stop it soon.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 06, 2020, 01:00:07 PM
This can become a worldwide plague that will make the history books unless we stop it soon.

Only one of us is already posting daft and doesn't realise it ..

WAY more people committed suicide, died at the hand of another human, died of a snake bite or mosquito bite ..


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 06, 2020, 02:03:34 PM
I last flew internationally on Sunday - with a lay-over in Istanbul

I was first on the plane and made my way to my window seat - and put my small carry-on bag in the overhead locker .. the flight was full and I KNEW folks were being asked to put stuff in the hold ..

I observed a member of the crew handing out forms to the passengers - after a while ..  this was the form

http://www.iata.org/contentassets/07a397c1164d45e794c22949c75a95ac/public-health-passenger-locator-form.pdf (http://www.iata.org/contentassets/07a397c1164d45e794c22949c75a95ac/public-health-passenger-locator-form.pdf)

I asked for one and was promised one ..  I never got it


On leaving the plane - no one seemed to be collecting said forms ..

No one was collecting the forms ... at Transit , passport control, before boarding the next flight...? ((





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 06, 2020, 02:38:20 PM
...Back in January I factored the under reporting of China and death rate from the small sample, learned the characteristics of this virus, and learned a vaccine/cure many never happen, I sounded the alarm back then. This virus is really bad shit and could kill billions if Italy's and South Korea's death to recovery ratio holds. Numbers may go down a little since the best doctors and respirators to assist breathing are helping currently infected people beat the virus but if it gets out of control and everybody got the virus, there's not enough best doctors and respiratory equipment to go around so the death rate will skyrocket if humanity can't control the virus. This can become a worldwide plague that will make the history books unless we stop it soon.


China may have (intentionally? - for what though, I don't know) under reported the # of cases, but I need to ask, if this is a new viral strain, how could China determine how to test it, much less how to differentiate a person sick of the common flu from those on coronavirus?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 06, 2020, 03:29:20 PM

... if this is a new viral strain, how could China determine how to test it, much less how to differentiate a person sick of the common flu from those on coronavirus?

BINGO!   China was obviously in the dark in the first days of this disease outbreak.  To illustrate the following is the first account the UN WHO reported about the disease. 

Quote
     
Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office
 

31 December 2019

At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China. According to the authorities, some patients were operating dealers or vendors in the Huanan Seafood market.

Staying in close contact with national authorities, WHO began monitoring the situation and requested further information on the laboratory tests performed and the different diagnoses considered.   


Everything moved quickly after that obscure report. 

China reported the genetic sequence of the COVID-19 strain in mid-January.  Only with such data could a reliable laboratory test be developed. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 06, 2020, 04:14:50 PM
I need to ask, if this is a new viral strain, how could China determine how to test it, much less how to differentiate a person sick of the common flu from those on coronavirus?


It's actually easy to test. If doctors don't recognize it being a cold, flu or any type of virus they've ever seen, it's the new guy on the block. Did you read the translated Chinese article on the other thread I provided? Sept 18, 2019 article reported a man in Wuhan was discovered to have a corona virus that was never seen before. When a new bacteria, virus, animal, plant or whatever is discovered, it's supposed to be big news unless it's suppressed. Also other articles I provided said the virus showed up December 8 which is why doctors sounded the alarm before China notified WHO.

When a person gets sick, the doctor may take blood or swab their mouths to get samples what's in there. The sample gets sent to the lab to determine if a person's illness is viral or bacterial related. If it's a viral infection, it is determined what kind of virus so the doctor can prescribe the proper anti viral medicine. If the lab technicians don't recognize the virus, it's obviously the new guy on the block and common sense says to sound the alarm to the government and medical community which some whistleblower doctors did.

The Chinese government didn't allow the local government of Wuhan to report the virus. Zhou, mayor of Wuhan apologized for the delay which he blamed on government policy. Comment below is in link below. Also some at the potluck got the virus.

Zhou later took responsibility for the delay in reporting the scale of the epidemic, but said he was hampered by the national law on infectious diseases.
That law allows provincial governments to declare an epidemic only after receiving central government approval.
"After I receive information, I can only release it when I'm authorised," he said.


http://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/02/06/wuhan-neighbourhood-sees-infections-after-40000-families-gather-for-potluck

Everything moved quickly after that obscure report. 


The Chinese reporting the new virus on the block didn't get things moving quickly. Mayor of Wuhan said the announcement was delayed. China then and still today blocked international experts from coming to Wuhan to investigate and help stop the spread before it got outside China. China continued till near the end of January with business as usual encouraging people to congregate to celebrate the new year.

A couple of days ago WHO put out a statement saying this virus is deadlier than previously thought. I already knew that. In that statement they also said "This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics." and "at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19" and "we must do everything we can to contain it."

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Today WHO says it's false hope to think this virus will disappear in the summer like the flu. As infections disease experts learn more about this virus, be prepared for more bad news. Experts, not the Moby kind, have already talked about it and it's clear it's going to get real bad if we don't stop it. Governments don't want to scare people and cause panic. If everybody stops working and functioning, that's a bad scenario so it's best to get people to believe it's okay to keep working and living while sacrificing a few. So they put out articles this virus isn't so bad. Problem is to contain this virus, quarantining people will be a big part of it. If we do not stop the virus, periodic quarantine will be a part of our lives when an outbreak happens. There's an increasing chance somebody on this forum will experience life the way the citizens of Wuhan does.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says/ar-BB10QrLc?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 06, 2020, 04:38:26 PM
It's actually easy to test. If doctors don't recognize it being a cold, flu or any type of virus they've ever seen, it's the new guy on the block. Did you read the translated Chinese article on the other thread I provided? Sept 18, 2019 article reported a man in Wuhan was discovered to have a corona virus that was never seen before. When a new bacteria, virus, animal, plant or whatever is discovered, it's supposed to be big news unless it's suppressed. Also other articles I provided said the virus showed up December 8 which is why doctors sounded the alarm before China notified WHO....

Admittedly, no, I didn't read the article you referred to. But again, what would be the point of concealing a 'new' virus from the scientific community? Pride? If politics, what would be the point?

Forget the Chinese, judge our own for a minute (CDC). Despite already being alarmed by what allegedly China had done, and the fact we are supposed to be a more clinically advanced than China, we still couldn't move fast enough, or properly enough, to put out test kits on time and/or what it is that needed to be done to determine every facets of what needed to be studied. Heck, look at the test criteria CDC gave before a test can be conducted? Again, this is way after the madness in China kicked in.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 06, 2020, 05:37:56 PM
But again, what would be the point of concealing a 'new' virus from the scientific community? Pride? If politics, what would be the point?


My guess is China wanted to protect it's economy and pride. They've already had the lion's share of outbreaks around the world with SARS, and multiple swine and bird flu epidemics. Communist governments try to give the impression they're the best kind of government around and nothing bad happens under their watch. Iran doesn't have much economy so them not disclosing the truth is more about pride. Bad things aren't supposed to happen to them. I remember the Prez of Iran coming to America and gave a speech at a college saying they don't have the problem of homosexuals in Iran.

If China didn't drop the ball and allowed infectious disease experts from around the world to pinpoint the source, start working on vaccines and containment plans, learning about this virus, educate the public earlier, more people's lives would be saved and economies wouldn't take as big of a hit.

Cold and flu viruses are so widespread that they can't be stopped so we live with them side by side forever. Cold viruses are harmless but our immunity attacks them anyway so we try to sneeze and cough them out and there's to cure for the cold virus. All we have is medicine to relieve our symptoms as our immune system does all the work to get rid of cold viruses. Flus are more dangerous but we can create vaccines and other anti viral medicine to defeat the flu virus.  This new virus is related to the cold virus except is very dangerous. The more it spreads, the harder it is to get rid up and we may come to the point of defeat and begin to realize we'll have to live with it forever and like colds we can get them multiple times in our lives. Living with it forever will alter our lives and behavior. Getting quarantined to control periodic regional outbreaks may become a way of life.

CDC says adults get 2-3 colds a year average and children can get up to 12 colds a year. I don't remember having that much colds per year but some may have not been so noticeable although I acquired a cold virus. Some people's first infection from this new corona virus is not very noticeable. Next infection may be very noticeable and kill them.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166606

Forget the Chinese, judge our own for a minute (CDC). Despite already being alarmed by what allegedly China had done, and the fact we are supposed to be a more clinically advanced than China, we still couldn't move fast enough, or properly enough, to put out test kits on time and/or what it is that needed to be done to determine every facets of what needed to be studied. Heck, look at the test criteria CDC gave before a test can be conducted? Again, this is way after the madness in China kicked in.

The CDC started to ship test kits over a month ago. Back then, there were no outbreaks in America but the CDC was getting prepared for one. The problem was a regent in the test kits that made them faulty so it was wasted time and money. Back to the drawing board. I don't blame government on that. Government hired pharmaceutical companies, doctors and scientists to create the products the American public needs. They are human and mistakes happen.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

As I typed this post, I got a call with a recorded message from the VA Hospital in Seattle to tell me what part of the hospital to go for the virus testing. I do have an appointment there next week for a checkup. I'll report back what the medical staff is wearing.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 06, 2020, 08:08:54 PM
China was obviously in the dark in the first days of this disease outbreak.  To illustrate the following is the first account the UN WHO reported about the disease. 

Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office
 
31 December 2019

At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China.


Everything moved quickly after that obscure report. 


Gator here's another reason China wasn't in the dark. Taiwan has a low infection count at this moment and it's because they took action in December based off Chinese people talking about it informally before China announced it to the world. Taiwan didn't know much about the virus except it was killing lots of Chinese in December. Virus doesn't even have to have a name. Just need to know it's dangerous and action needs to happen so Taiwan quarantined people on flights from Wuhan in December to check if they're sick. My mom who reads Vietnamese news read about this bad boy virus last year but didn't tell me because she thought I would laugh it off as tabloid news.

http://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/why-taiwan-has-just-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 07, 2020, 05:11:52 AM
Florida cases:

Confirmed cases of infection: 12

           6 FL residents (2 of whom died)
           5 FL residents now in quarantine outside FL
           1 Non-FL resident

Cases Awaiting Test Results:  88

Being monitored:  278 (had contact with confirmed case)

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 07, 2020, 10:34:06 AM
I've searched, although not intensely, as to how those in the cruise ship in California got infected. Does anyone know? IINM, the one in Florida apparently involved folks coming back from their vacation in Italy.

3 tested positive in UCLA campus yesterday, but the news didn't state exactly how they got the infection either.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 07, 2020, 10:48:09 AM
The CDC started to ship test kits over a month ago. Back then, there were no outbreaks in America but the CDC was getting prepared for one. The problem was a regent in the test kits that made them faulty so it was wasted time and money. Back to the drawing board. I don't blame government on that. Government hired pharmaceutical companies, doctors and scientists to create the products the American public needs. They are human and mistakes happen.

That's not exactly what was reported, BillyB. We (CDC) decided to extricate itself from the global partnership and conduct their own testing method. Instead of partnering and sharing results and information, IIRC, CDC wanted to not only create a test kits to isolate COVID-19, but create a kit to also identify a wider range of viral pathogens.

Quote
As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.

The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses. But when it was sent to labs across the country in the first week of February, it didn’t work as expected. The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples.

http://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

This seem to fly in the face of what you seem to be saying about China's slow reaction to the infection.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 07, 2020, 11:10:09 AM
That's not exactly what was reported, BillyB. We (CDC) decided to extricate itself from the global partnership and conduct their own testing method. Instead of partnering and sharing results and information, IIRC, CDC wanted to not only create a test kits to isolate COVID-19, but create a kit to also identify a wider range of viral pathogens.

http://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

This seem to fly in the face of what you seem to be saying about China's slow reaction to the infection.

Global partnership? How many countries decided to WHO's guidelines instead of their own? I put a link up earlier that showed the first CDC's test kits had a faulty regent. It's a manufacturing defect which was corrected. Problem didn't have nothing to do with not following guidelines. The CDC doesn't need to follow the WHO's guidelines to make a properly working kit which we already have now.

Didn't see anywhere in the article that compliments China for a fast reaction to the infection. Taiwan reacted to the virus before China announced the newly discovered virus to the world. That's fast.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 07, 2020, 11:18:34 AM
Global partnership? How many countries decided to WHO's guidelines instead of their own? I put a link up earlier that showed the first CDC's test kits had a faulty regent. It's a manufacturing defect which was corrected. Problem didn't have nothing to do with not following guidelines. The CDC doesn't need to follow the WHO's guidelines to make a properly working kit which we already have now.

It's *reagent*. WHO is the scientific/medical global partnership. If you don't like this description, you can call it any other name you'd like. I, nor anyone in the article cited, mentioned anything about not following guidelines. What it reported was, CDC decided to conduct testing methodology on it's own instead of partnering with the WHO, global community, or whatever you want to name it.

As a consequence, it failed. The CDC applied methodology FAILED. Set them back weeks...whether you'd like to believe the report or not is entirely up to you.

Quote
Didn't see anywhere in the article that compliments China for a fast reaction to the infection. Taiwan reacted to the virus before China announced the newly discovered virus to the world. That's fast.

The article nor I didn't say it either, so not sure where you inferred someone was complimenting China.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 07, 2020, 12:38:16 PM
It's *reagent*. WHO is the scientific/medical global partnership. If you don't like this description, you can call it any other name you'd like. I, nor anyone in the article cited, mentioned anything about not following guidelines. What it reported was, CDC decided to conduct testing methodology on it's own instead of partnering with the WHO, global community, or whatever you want to name it.

As a consequence, it failed. The CDC applied methodology FAILED. Set them back weeks...whether you'd like to believe the report or not is entirely up to you.


Your article said "The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples."

So basically the test flagged the presence of other viruses in  harmless samples. The manufacture of the American test kits corrected the problem and made test kits that work.  International organizations guidelines are usually designed easy enough for all countries to follow. Doesn't mean it's the best guideline possible. It's just a guideline that even under developed countries can follow. If I needed a test and they ask me if I wanted the CDC designed test or a Nigerian test kit that followed WHO's guidelines, I choose the CDC test every time because usually they are going to want to build a better more sophisticated test that may identify more viruses than just COVID=19
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 07, 2020, 04:13:42 PM
I've searched, although not intensely, as to how those in the cruise ship in California got infected. Does anyone know?

No,  but seems weird that of the 21 infected, 19 were crew members.  The crews on these ships can be huge, numbering over 1,000. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 07, 2020, 04:22:37 PM
No,  but seems weird that of the 21 infected, 19 were crew members.  The crews on these ships can be huge, numbering over 1,000.


Since the majority of infected are crew members, it could mean the infected passengers that infected them were on the previous cruise and those passengers are already back home all over America.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 07, 2020, 05:35:06 PM
Since the majority of infected are crew members, it could mean the infected passengers that infected them were on the previous cruise and those passengers  are already back home all over America.

Possibly, yet for sure under surveillance by health organizations.

Billy, you are beginning to sound like Krimster. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on March 07, 2020, 06:02:21 PM
what?
no way, I NEVER ever thought about having sex in a cemetery late at night like yon William has, are you kiddin me?
mannnnn....
you pull your willy out late at night in a cemetery, and FOR SURE, something VERY BAD will happen to it....
that's just "common sense"


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: calmissile on March 07, 2020, 06:20:31 PM
It is somewhat amusing to watch the hysteria developing over the Corona Virus.  There seems to be a lack of critical thinking and common sense that that the public is participating in.  People are being whipped into a frenzy fueled by the media.

Lets apply some perspective to the situation....

This is not the Black Plague!  Most deaths are occurring in elderly folks with underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems.  Most of those infected outside 3rd world countries have symptoms of the common flu viruses and get over it naturally.

Although not reported by mainstream media, it would be helpful to see a chart with the number of infections and deaths from the common flu vs. the Corona Virus.  It would be even more helpful to see it broken down by age groups and those with and without underlying health problems.  That would allow us to put some perspective on the seriousness and risk factors for this strain of the flu.

Just like the common flu season we experience every year, there are some common sense actions we can all take to minimize the risks of catching this flu strain or any other communicable virus or infection.

Stay away from large gatherings of people.  Don't go to the movies, concerts or other gatherings of a lot of people outside your normal social circle.  While it does not guarantee that you won't come into contact with someone that is carrying a virus, it reduces the risk considerably.  I also would not use public transportation unless there is no other option.

If there is an outbreak in my area, I might go further to isolate our family to further reduce the risks but I sure as hell and not going to go out and start buying up face masks and toilet paper at the present time.  We often cannot avoid the risks of contacting someone at work or our children at school that might be infectious, but until there is a risk identified in those places, we should not panic and become irrational.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 07, 2020, 06:35:43 PM
Billy, you are beginning to sound like Krimster.


Krimster predicting gloom and doom has a real chance on becoming reality this time. This virus is related to the cold virus. There is no vaccine for the cold virus so we live with the cold virus. This virus is much more deadlier than the flu. If we can't eradicate it from the human body and lose control, we will have to live with it and if there isn't a vaccine invented, containment is the only solution for control. That means quarantining regional populations during outbreaks is something we'll have to live with forever. Quarantined societies have a hard time to function and will need outside support. Our health care systems will be pushed to the limits. It will strain economies. Humanity will struggle. You mentioned in the other thread in the end, flus will kill more. That will be true only if we stop the new virus soon. If every person on earth got to experience this new virus once, we'd wish we had the flu instead.

History teaches a lesson. Trump's grandfather died in the first wave of three Spanish Flus to hit America. Out of 500 million worldwide to be infected, 50 million died. 10% mortality rate. Average lifespan for Americans dropped 12 years during this period. Based on early numbers coming in from trustworthy nations, this new corona virus is worse and there is no vaccine and may never be one. We have vaccines to prevent the Spanish flu from ever wrecking havoc on humanity again. Imagine there being no cure for the Spanish Flu and we had to deal with it still today on a yearly basis. Here's a 2018 article on Spanish Flu with old photos showing citizens wearing masks. That was life for those citizens during rough times. Masks may be a part of our lives too.

http://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2018/05/1918-flu/

Most deaths are occurring in elderly folks with underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems.  Most of those infected outside 3rd world countries have symptoms of the common flu viruses and get over it naturally.


It's easy for older people to die from any disease or injury over young people. The flu is more dangerous to older people than young people but overall .1% of people infected by the flu will die or in other words, 1 out of 1000 people will die and the majority will be older people or the very young with underdeveloped lungs. This new virus is much more dangerous than the flu across the board for all age groups. Of course older and very young will still be more likely to die than 20 yo people.

If this new virus wasn't so bad, you wouldn't see hundreds of millions of people under full or partial lockdown for the few months it's appeared on earth. With already more than 10% of the population on earth experiencing a quarantine, that should tell us something about how bad this virus really is even if the governments aren't telling us.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on March 07, 2020, 07:03:36 PM
3 numbers really determine the mortality rate of a virus...

the first is R0, or reproducibility rate, the number of people on average a single infected person will infect...
this virus has is a 50% higher R0 then the common version of flu

next number is virulence, this virus is over 40 times more deadly than the flu and skews towards older people...

last is the size of the number infected, common flu can infect about 5% of a given population in just one season...that's 15 million, here in the US of A

this virus DOES NOT like to grow in warm weather, and prefers below 51 degree F....

in the USA, at the moment the virus is growing at the rate of about 20 to 25% per day
by the end of tomorrow we will probably have over 500 cases in the USA not counting the over 600 in the cruise ship of fools

I would expect a decrease in the rate of transmission soon because of the change in temp

but then when flu season starts in October, I expect this to EXPLODE....

we are where China was in December....
I expect our entry to the exponential will happen, but not as quickly as  China's because of the weather
but I expect to have 100,000 cases here in the USA by December.....

this means a 10% drop in USA's GDP
this means ALL schools and non-essential government offices will be closed
and restaurants and many, many other businesses
public transport
store shelves are empty
all by December...

in America many people have their health insurance tied to their jobs
and a million people are gonna get laid off
and lose their health insurance

your kid broke his arm, and you want to get into the ER?
forget about it, go see a doctor instead, if he's not dead....
suddenly prices on everything starts skyrocketing...

your world by December friends
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 07, 2020, 07:11:43 PM
I would expect a decrease in the rate of transmission soon because of the change in temp

but then when flu season starts in October, I expect this to EXPLODE....


WHO said "This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics." and "at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19" and "we must do everything we can to contain it."

This is not the flu and behaves differently and may survive the hotter months and continue to infect people. WHO says it's false hope to think this virus will disappear in the summer like the flu. I suspect WHO put the virus in a hotter environment to mimic Summer and were disappointed to learn it still survived.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says/ar-BB10QrLc?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 09, 2020, 02:18:37 PM
3 numbers really determine the mortality rate of a virus...

the first is R0, or reproducibility rate, the number of people on average a single infected person will infect...
this virus has is a 50% higher R0 then the common version of flu

next number is virulence, this virus is over 40 times more deadly than the flu and skews towards older people...

last is the size of the number infected, common flu can infect about 5% of a given population in just one season...that's 15 million, here in the US of A


krimster.  You have this confused.   Two of your variables (R0 and "number infected") are essentially the same. 

An epidemiologist would estimate morbidity using something such as the D-O-T-S formula, where:

                    D = duration of time that an infected person can infect others
                    O = opportunity for contact with other persons  (quarantine would be near zero while
                                        flying, sports events, movie theater, etc.  would be high)
                    T = transmission (for COVID-19 shaking hands, touching surfaces, coughing, etc.)
                    S = susceptibility of person contacted (age, health, vaccinations when available, etc.)

The "O" and "T" determine exposure and can be mostly controlled by individual behavior.  Death and recovery are subsets of number infected.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 09, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
If every person on earth got to experience this new virus once, we'd wish we had the flu instead.

I am guessing BillyB doesn't realise that many people hardly know they've had it ...




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 09, 2020, 03:51:17 PM
I am guessing BillyB doesn't realise that many people hardly know they've had it ...

There are also dead people that didn't know they had it too. CDC says adults get 2-3 colds a year. I don't feel like I got that many colds each year. Sometimes I don't know I got it. Other times I definitely know I got it. COVID-19, related to the cold virus, may act the same way as a cold where we may not feel it sometimes and other times we do.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 09, 2020, 08:40:09 PM
'Sorry', I was seeking a coherent riposte to pointing out that many infected people do / did not realise they had THE virus...

I expect that whilst those who have died may not have appreciated why...but, 'guess what'?! .....

I have a feeling medics know and report, accordingly...

Do you 'get' my point..?

Must I do the make it v.simple so that Silly Billy gets it, too...?

The figures for those dying, having been infected, are FAR more accurate than those infected.



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 09, 2020, 09:17:38 PM
I have a feeling medics know and report, accordingly...


How Sherlock Holmes? Your feelings aren't facts. Most medical professionals never seen and won't be able to identify this new virus. Patient comes in with flu symptoms and later dies. Influenza gets blamed. Money and time aren't going to get spent to take a culture sample from a dead person to send to a laboratory for confirmation on what actually killed the person. See Krimster's post saying Chinese had a 50% increase in influenza cases. Not hard to figure out what is going on.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 10, 2020, 01:18:18 AM
My 'feelings' are somewhat less orientated to 'conspiracy theory'...

Those with such an outlook grasp that manipulating figures will be obvious, after other nations experience a serious outbreak.

The numbers for those infected are much more inaccurate than those dying.

In the meantime your unique interpretation of the data would amuse, if it wasn't such a sad topic.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 10, 2020, 04:44:26 PM
My wife had an appointment today with a specialist physician.  Among different forms she signed, she had to complete a written form that asked a few questions to assess the risk of whether she has a COVID-19 infection.

If a patient says they are sick with COVID-19 symptoms,  the staff measures their vital signs, and advises them to  "STAY HOME."  Hydrate, take anti-inflammatory medicine, and rest. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 10, 2020, 09:22:55 PM

Propaganda machine has been turned on because Chinese citizens are angry at their government. China state controlled media is now saying the virus could've come from another country. If that was the case, they should've have been claiming the virus came from a meat market and silenced whistleblowers. While the world is busy with their own epidemics, China is rewriting history.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/beijing-objects-to-term-wuhan-coronavirus-and-says-it-may-not-have-originated-in-china/ar-BB10YD26?ocid=spartanntp

Top Communist official in Wuhan calls for gratitude education for all so citizens may show their appreciation for the government that saved their country. Sounds like he's got a hard on for a promotion. Although the Chinese government thinks the Chinese government are heroes, the doctors who tried to sound the alarm early and forced China's hand into reporting the virus to WHO are the heroes. While the world is busy with the gift China gave them, China is rewriting history.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/wuhan-official-called-gratitude-education-190949766.html

November 2019 China was hit by the plague and silenced whistleblower doctors. Sound familiar? They finally reported it to WHO only after what was happening posted on social media. They got the plague under control. Probably gave them confidence they'd the virus of the century under control.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/16/china-bubonic-plague-outbreak-pandemic/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 10, 2020, 09:56:38 PM
BillyB,

It's not just China blaming 'the west' ..

YOU blamed the Chinese ... suggesting it had 'escaped from a biolab'..

Seeing any common denominator ? ...





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 10, 2020, 10:20:02 PM
YOU blamed the Chinese ...


That's because they admitted it was their baby. Now they don't want to pay child support.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 11, 2020, 05:41:04 AM
CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html) advises the elderly to stock up on supplies and stay home as much as possible.

This is a great idea! For one, it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 11, 2020, 06:34:27 AM
Germany's Merkel warned that up to 70% of the country's population could become infected.

Her point,  and a good one, is that Germany needs to take measures not to prevent the outbreak but to slow it.   Otherwise the Germany healthcare system will be overwhelmed.  Does she plan to follow the Italy model? 

For those of you in Europe, what is the public reaction?   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 11, 2020, 06:49:50 AM
CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html) advises the elderly to stock up on supplies and stay home as much as possible.

This is a great idea! For one, it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝

IF / When you, I or a family member gets infected, I'm sure the members will remember what a public service we're being ...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 11, 2020, 06:54:15 AM
When will the world have therapeutic treatment for COVID-19?

One possible treatment is to use pharmaceuticals intended to counteract autoimmune diseases, because many of the COVID-19 deaths result from overreaction by the body's natural autoimmune system.  Thus, one such pharmaceutical is that used to treat  rheumatoid arthritis.  Although not approved by FDA, it has been given to some patients on a "mercy" basis, and it was beneficial.

There are many other possible candidates, and every pharmaceutical company in the world is likely busy analyzing the possibilities.   I feel the world will have something effective within months. 

When will we have a COVID-19 vaccine?  Supposedly those patients who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection have developed an immunity to contracting future infection.  That's a good sign.    Hundreds of thousands of  Jonas Salk wannabes are laboring in their labs.    One will find the answer.

The problem is that viruses change.    Next year could be worse.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 11, 2020, 08:01:14 AM
When will the world have therapeutic treatment for COVID-19?


Just saw a report on Capitol Hill this morning that they are in fact already administering this on multiple *infected* volunteers, both here in the US and China. I missed the gentleman's name though.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 11, 2020, 08:02:12 AM
Germany's Merkel warned that up to 70% of the country's population could become infected.

Her point,  and a good one, is that Germany needs to take measures not to prevent the outbreak but to slow it.   Otherwise the Germany healthcare system will be overwhelmed.  Does she plan to follow the Italy model? 

For those that have been pooh pooh'ing the potential of this virus, the numbers and latest reactions should be a signal that this may wind up being extremely serious.  I recall reading numerous times how this was killing so much less than the flu, or comparing abortions to the number of deaths.   

It seems in the coming days, quarantines will be a coming. 

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 11, 2020, 08:07:02 AM
it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝


Not much traffic jams in Seattle right now. Feels nice but if people continue to lose school and work, the economy will suffer.

One possible treatment is to use pharmaceuticals intended to counteract autoimmune diseases, because many of the COVID-19 deaths result from overreaction by the body's natural autoimmune system.  Thus, one such pharmaceutical is that used to treat  rheumatoid arthritis.  Although not approved by FDA, it has been given to some patients on a "mercy" basis, and it was beneficial.


Medical professionals have been trying cocktails of all kinds of medicines to find if something works. WHO put out a statement last week that there is no cure. People going to try to find and claim they found one anyway. Some people have washed bleach and other products on their bodies thinking it works. Others have increased their consumption of alcohol. Until WHO or CDC puts out a statement of a vaccine or treatment, I don't believe anything I read.

Supposedly those patients who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection have developed an immunity to contracting future infection. 


In a matter of months, we now have two strains of COVID-19 running around. Our immune system can't stop the flu from affecting our bodies again and most likely can't stop COVID-19. We need a vaccine but it would take years to develop one. Since it's related to a cold virus, years may pass us by and it'll sink in that there may never be a vaccine. Nevertheless, governments will continue to put out the story they are working hard on it and labs will report to the media they are close to discovering one. Stories like that are already out but its all BS.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 11, 2020, 08:10:16 AM

This is a great idea! For one, it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝
I'm going to carry on for another day today.  Going to be doing some driving through LA/IE today.  I'll be curious to see if traffic is any different.  I come in contact with a lot of people, and due to this I'd expect to catch the virus at some point if the numbers are correct.  Maybe I survive but others around me most certainly would not, and the potential of that is disturbing enough to at least give me a moment's pause...nevertheless going to carry on for now.   If clusters start to pop up in this area, I think I would indeed have to then reassess and perhaps button down, at which point everyone else would probably do the same, and the dreaded TP shortage would ruin my enjoyment of a good crap...among other things.   

Fathertime!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 11, 2020, 08:22:10 AM
Not much traffic jams in Seattle right now. Feels nice but if people continue to lose school and work, the economy will suffer.


That's awesome! You're experiencing immediate benefit of not having the elderlies driving around. Now if we can somehow get the Asian flu-20 started it'd really free up our roads and freeways
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 11, 2020, 10:11:08 AM
Earlier in this thread I had mentioned that the possible genesis of this virus was transferred via what is known as 'zoonotics', simply defined as: a disease that can be transmitted from animals to people or, more specifically, a disease that normally exists in animals but that can infect humans. There are multitudes of zoonotic diseases. Some examples include: anthrax.

Then I mentioned and speculated about the Asiatic regions' love for their wet markets aka snake alleys, where there's a section of the markets where caged live animals of all types are offered and prepared as fresh meat, and I wasn't too far off apparently...

I just now found a video detailing this *likely* cause of the virus...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7nZ4mw4mXw
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 11, 2020, 10:33:47 AM

Then I mentioned and speculated about the Asiatic regions' love for their wet markets aka snake alleys, where there's a section of the markets where caged live animals of all types are offered and prepared as fresh meat, and I wasn't too far off apparently...





I listened to half the video but there is no evidence the virus came from an animal just suspicion. WHO put out a statement they don't have a definitive answer to the source but they are still looking for the source. Infected coronavirus meat has not been found. There is no animal herd, snake farm, or bat cave that houses the virus. There's not a single animal on earth that has been detected to have this coronavirus. Correction. A Chinese woman has recently given it to her dog but the dog is not the source.


The expert in the video shouldn't be ignored. He's considered the world's best expert on coronavirus and said this virus is much more dangerous than SARS and can infect 60% of the population on the first wave. The journalist predicted that amount of people multiplied by mortality rate and concluded up to 45 million people will die. Keep in mind, the mortality rate that is being reported is very low because China manipulated the numbers and also of the widespread use of incorrect methods to calculate mortality rates.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 11, 2020, 11:28:46 AM
So, not a Chinese biolab error?..

BillyB...you have posted SO much nonsense re this virus...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 11, 2020, 11:35:59 AM
So, not a Chinese biolab error?..

BillyB...you have posted SO much nonsense re this virus...

pot, meet kettle.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on March 11, 2020, 11:40:49 AM
"Coronavirus: Up to 70% of Germany could become infected - Merkel"


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856

first troops are deployed in new rochelle, ny to seal it off

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 11, 2020, 11:56:10 AM
So, not a Chinese biolab error?..

BillyB...you have posted SO much nonsense re this virus...

Nobody knows where this virus came from and if someone does know, they ain't telling.

Some experts in viruses have predicted the new coronavirus was originally housed in a Canadian level-4 bio lab. Level 4 labs house the most dangerous pathogens known to man. With their statements currently floating around I Googled for some past info and found this:

In this July 2019 Canadian article, their Level-4 lab fired a Chinese researcher who travelled to China often and trained those in Wuhan's new level-4 lab. Experts at the time said it could be a case of intellectual property theft that got the Chinese researcher fired. Because she wasn't arrested, it means they don't have proof she stole something, just speculating based on her behavior and frequent travel to China.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/chinese-researcher-escorted-from-infectious-disease-lab-amid-rcmp-investigation-1.5211567

Chinese article below written Sept 18 2019 saying a person in Wuhan was diagnosed with a new kind of coronavirus. My uncle was on a tour of China in the middle of November and his tour group was scheduled to stop in Wuhan. The Chinese military stopped his train and told them to go around Wuhan.

http://www.ctdsb.net/html/2019/0918/sportsMeet260345.html

Translated version of that Chinese article below.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ctdsb.net%2Fhtml%2F2019%2F0918%2FsportsMeet260345.html

This virus was never found in an animal. It's a beast. Could be genetically engineered to be tougher and deadlier than what Mother Nature throws at us. Doesn't matter now where it came from. We just have to deal with it since China lost control of it. Is it a bio weapon? Humans develop all kinds of bio weapons but not all will be chosen for war. If a nation can't find an antidote or vaccine for a newly discovered bio weapon to protect their troops, the bio weapon remains locked up at the lab. A bioweapon that can be stopped will be chosen for war instead.

Where do  you think it came from? I'm sure you talked to an expert who read a book about viruses and he gave you the inside scoop.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 11, 2020, 12:40:46 PM
Billy, did it ever occurred to you that if there’s any ounce of truth in your story that the Chinese government would immediately skin this scientist alive for inventing a weapon that only kills old farts with underlying medical condition to boot!?!

C’mon man. Hell you're more lethal man cause you’re killing me.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: SANDRO43 on March 11, 2020, 12:53:18 PM
I am old enough to remember the years after the end of WWII, the situation I witness now in Milan reminds me of those almost forgotten days :(.

Since last Monday, new anti-crowding regulations are in force. Many shops and restaurants decided to close down, fewer people circulating, many face masks in evidence - where did they get them :-\? - no more than 3 persons at a time allowed to enter food shops, many shelves half empty. Bars are required to serve drinks at tables, not at the counter.

I went to my usual supermarket to buy a few things, the queue before the entrance was  about 50 people :( - at the recommended interval of at least 1 metre, the delay before finally entering about 30'.

Given the situation, I of course bought a few extra items not to face the same delay again shortly. Other customers came out with overloaded bags.

The Government and our Protezione Civile - the agency managing this crisis - recommended a "stay at home" policy. In effect, Italy is quarantined until April 3rd, no exits allowed from the city of residence unless for valid, written self-certified reasons, like work and serious health conditions. Fines and also arrest for transgressors. Theatres, cinemas, museums, discoes, gyms, stadiums etc. were ordered to close down. Most sports activities cancelled or postponed.

Today the OMS has declared Coronavirus-19  a pandemic. 

China's situation seems to be on the mend, we are negotiating the purchase of several pieces of respiratory equipment and a few million masks from there.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 11, 2020, 02:22:10 PM
pot, meet kettle.

I'm sorry .. you may have taken a break from here ..perhaps you missed myself and others pointing out Billy's statistical flaws - with examples ..


'Surprise' me with a reasoned argument that my point was incorrect ..



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 11, 2020, 02:26:58 PM
Poor 'ol Italians

Now all shops (other than food establishments) must close ... but restaurants, bars, etc, must close, too ((

Their PM announced it about 40 mins ago

Not sure about hotels ... Saw a British couple interviewed, earlier - they are in Rome - cannot get home and their hotel was closing - as they couldn't afford to stay open (

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/suddenly-the-er-is-collapsing-a-doctors-stark-warning-from-italys-coronavirus-epicentre/ (http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/suddenly-the-er-is-collapsing-a-doctors-stark-warning-from-italys-coronavirus-epicentre/)

Sadly, it seems that ER is near collapse ..

"Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed."

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 11, 2020, 02:33:09 PM
I'm sorry .. you may have taken a break from here ..perhaps you missed myself and others pointing out Billy's statistical flaws - with examples ..


'Surprise' me with a reasoned argument that my point was incorrect ..

Could, but would it change your opinion with infallible evidence such as a Doc you know who knows these things and how he knows better than the CDC or WHO?


Especially after that was proven wrong? Likely not. Didn't you say it's best to get infected and get the infection over with to build an Immunity? Go give that a shot. I heard your Health Minister just caught it. Perhaps you could illuminate her on how the Flu is worse and we need a herd immunity ASAP.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 11, 2020, 02:38:16 PM
Billy, did it ever occurred to you that if there’s any ounce of truth in your story that the Chinese government would immediately skin this scientist alive for inventing a weapon that only kills old farts with underlying medical condition to boot!?!


Old people have a greater chance to die from bio weapons, nukes, bullets, flus and falls. This is not a new revelation. Young adults can die from the flu but this new virus greatly multiplies their chances to die. From the link I provided earlier that said males are dying more than women, China also stated 20% of those who died in their country are under 60 yo. Our best experts can't predict the future. We may build an immunity to the virus or this virus may evolve into something more dangerous.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 11, 2020, 02:44:19 PM
Could, but would it change your opinion with infallible evidence such as a Doc you know who knows these things and how he knows better than the CDC or WHO?

Inattentive, as ever ..  The Doc / Micro-biologist in question are EXACTLY the type of people YOU should be listening to ...


Especially after that was proven wrong? Likely not. Didn't you say it's best to get infected and get the infection over with to build an Immunity?

I meant there might be a school of thought  to get it EARLY.. as if there is a storm like in Italy .. if one gets respiratory problems  - you'd stand less of chance of recovery ...

Once again, inattentive


 I heard your Health Minister just caught it. Perhaps you could illuminate her on how the Flu is worse and we need a herd immunity ASAP.

'A' health minister ... not THE head of the Ministry ..

She's at home - not a hospital ..

Three strikes for inattentiveness

Shame this isn't baseball




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 11, 2020, 02:50:13 PM
Inattentive, as ever ..  The Doc / Micro-biologist in question are EXACTLY the type of people YOU should be listening to ...

I meant there might be a school of thought  to get it EARLY.. as if there is a storm like in Italy .. if one gets respiratory problems  - you'd stand less of chance of recovery ...

Once again, inattentive

'A' health minister ... not THE head of the Ministry ..

She's at home - not a hospital ..

Three strikes for inattentiveness

Shame this isn't baseball

Based on previous scores you'd be with a .000 average past Brexit.

Also, how accurate was that school of thought? The one you proposed after speaking to your MD and former MD colleagues who said it was a Flu and not to worry? Don't answer, it's rhetorical we can just go here to find out: http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html



In other news unrelated to putting blinders over your eyes or head in the sand, several more states here declared a state of emergency. We're told at work to go home to work. Headed back to Texas for a mini vacation. Fiancee is worried I may not be able to meet up with her in May/June, her friends are in Milan and are saying it is getting worse (for them) as far as the quarantine.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 11, 2020, 03:47:05 PM
Based on previous scores you'd be with a .000 average past Brexit.

So, no 'counter' with any facts to support your drive-by troll ..?

Also, how accurate was that school of thought? The one you proposed after speaking to your MD and former MD colleagues who said it was a Flu and not to worry?

I'm not worried .. I'm not in the 'at high risk' age group..

Flu' kills 1000's of elderly ppl in the UK, annually



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 11, 2020, 04:07:20 PM
So, no 'counter' with any facts to support your drive-by troll ..?

Pot meet kettle 2x in a day. Color me lucky.


I'm not worried .. I'm not in the 'at high risk' age group..

Flu' kills 1000's of elderly ppl in the UK, annually

We all hope don't we?  :popcorn:


In other news....

Boris Johnson is set to escalate the UK's coronavirus response to the next phase - meaning schools could be forced to close, major sporting events cancelled and people made to work from home.

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-set-to-move-to-delay-phase-schools-could-close-and-major-events-cancelled-11955695


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on March 11, 2020, 06:14:45 PM
pot, meet kettle.
That might be an insult to pots and pans.

The latest squawk from the left [CNN CBS MSMBC pundits] is that Republicans.. conservative news.. and Trump supporters are RACIST...calling the virus CHINESE. Thing is these hypocrites were saying that themselves back in January --- The Chinese virus..the Wuhan virus..etc
The Communist leadership over there said knock it off or we will get no more medicines [97% made in China]
 
Quote
What is the coronavirus from China and what are the symptoms?
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-what-are-symptoms-fast-facts-china-wuhan-virus-death-toll/
Most of those videos have been removed in compliance with Beijing's orders.
Mark my words...Mr Joe Biden will bow to the Chinese ---his butt in the air.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 11, 2020, 06:51:52 PM
The Communist leadership over there said knock it off or we will get no more medicines [97% made in China]
  http://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-what-are-symptoms-fast-facts-china-wuhan-virus-death-toll/
Most of those videos have been removed in compliance with Beijing's orders.
Mark my words...Mr Joe Biden will bow to the Chinese ---his butt in the air.

world health organization praised china for it's response to the virus...it seems that those in the know disagree with how you are directing your anger. 

Fathertime!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 11, 2020, 06:58:03 PM
That might be an insult to pots and pans.

The latest squawk from the left [CNN CBS MSMBC pundits] is that Republicans.. conservative news.. and Trump supporters are RACIST...calling the virus CHINESE. Thing is these hypocrites were saying that themselves back in January --- The Chinese virus..the Wuhan virus..etc
The Communist leadership over there said knock it off or we will get no more medicines [97% made in China]
  http://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-what-are-symptoms-fast-facts-china-wuhan-virus-death-toll/
Most of those videos have been removed in compliance with Beijing's orders.
Mark my words...Mr Joe Biden will bow to the Chinese ---his butt in the air.

That might be an insult to pots and pans.

Dammit TF, when I'm back in Texas we gotta meet so I can buy you (and yours) a beer.

Dammit TF, when I'm back in Texas we gotta meet so I can buy you (and yours) a beer.

world health organization praised china for it's response to the virus...it seems that those in the know disagree with how you are directing your anger. 

Fathertime!

Time will tell as your UN shows. However I feel like you will be eating crow soon.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 11, 2020, 07:22:03 PM
world health organization praised china for it's response to the virus...


WHO gave their praise Jan 9 after China reported the virus showed up Dec 31.

http://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-who-statement-regarding-cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china

After praising China for quickly identifying and managing the situation so it doesn't get out of control they said "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers. WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the information currently available."

Basically WHO gave everybody the green light to vacation in China which lost control of a situation that evolved into an epidemic. China didn't allow WHO's scientists and doctors in to evaluate the situation and help stop the virus so WHO took their word that they had it under control. When WHO was refused to evaluate the situation for themselves, it should've raised a big red flag and warnings to the international community should've started earlier.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 11, 2020, 07:27:56 PM
WHO gave their praise Jan 9 after China reported the virus showed up Dec 31.

http://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-who-statement-regarding-cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china

After praising China for quickly identifying and managing the situation so it doesn't get out of control they said "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers. WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the information currently available."

Basically WHO gave everybody the green light to vacation in China which lost control of a situation that evolved into an epidemic. China didn't allow WHO's scientists and doctors in to evaluate the situation and help stop the virus so WHO took their word that they had it under control. When WHO was refused to evaluate the situation for themselves, it should've raised a big red flag and warnings to the international community should've started earlier.

As BillyB and everyone else here knows, the WHO is a UN Subsidiary. What do you think would happen if GonaHerpaSiphilAIDS showed up in the USA but wasn't reported for 30 days? The WHO would praise us too. Who is going to say bad things against the hand that feeds it? China Pays the WHO and doesn't want that cash to dry up when they say "Attached"
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 11, 2020, 07:37:52 PM
WHO gave their praise Jan 9 after China reported the virus showed up Dec 31.

http://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-who-statement-regarding-cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china

After praising China for quickly identifying and managing the situation so it doesn't get out of control they said "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers. WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the information currently available."

Basically WHO gave everybody the green light to vacation in China which lost control of a situation that evolved into an epidemic. China didn't allow WHO's scientists and doctors in to evaluate the situation and help stop the virus so WHO took their word that they had it under control. When WHO was refused to evaluate the situation for themselves, it should've raised a big red flag and warnings to the international community should've started earlier.
as trump said during his little speech, 'virus have been around for a long time'.   In this situation look at how little has been done in the US to this point.  We (Along with other nations) have had weeks if not months to take a drastic yet possibly necessary action as china did.  We didn't.   All these weeks/months have gone by, china can't be blamed for that.  Some were even critical when china quarantined 100's of millions of their people.  They took the right approach, while we (The US) may have been downplaying the virus the whole time.  As we speak, I'm reading comments from trump fans still stating how the whole virus is a big hoax and exaggeration.  As is usual, there is plenty of blame that we (The US) can take for our own delayed and potentially inadequate response. 

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 11, 2020, 07:48:17 PM
as trump said during his little speech, 'virus have been around for a long time'.   In this situation look at how little has been done in the US to this point.  We (Along with other nations) have had weeks if not months to take a drastic yet possibly necessary action as china did.  We didn't.   All these weeks/months have gone by, china can't be blamed for that.  Some were even critical when china quarantined 100's of millions of their people.  They took the right approach, while we (The US) may have been downplaying the virus the whole time.  As we speak, I'm reading comments from trump fans still stating how the whole virus is a big hoax and exaggeration.  As is usual, there is plenty of blame that we (The US) can take for our own delayed and potentially inadequate response. 

Fathertime!

Fathertime,

As a Trump supporter we typically don't agree. But Let's assume today. There's 12 infected would you say inadequate? As the MOST (moobs enhanced) traveled through country yet still only having 1,300 6 weeks later. Would you say that's decent? If not? Please tell me what is your definition of winning? I want to know so I can contact my official.

And possibly, if China did the right approach? What would the left have done if you were infected and took you away? Would they be happy?

in re: to this "have had weeks if not months to take a drastic yet possibly necessary action as china did." exactly what drastic measures are you talking about? I assume like Bernie. Best in theory and not practice.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 11, 2020, 07:59:42 PM
Fathertime,

As a Trump supporter we typically don't agree. But Let's assume today. There's 12 infected would you say inadequate? As the MOST (moobs enhanced) traveled through country yet still only having 1,300 6 weeks later. Would you say that's decent? If not? Please tell me what is your definition of winning? I want to know so I can contact my official.

And possibly, if China did the right approach? What would the left have done if you were infected and took you away? Would they be happy?

in re: to this "have had weeks if not months to take a drastic yet possibly necessary action as china did." exactly what drastic measures are you talking about? I assume like Bernie. Best in theory and not practice.
If we let the likes of good old Mooby travel here who knows how many people he will infect with his hard head, fists, and toilet paper.   It seems odd to ban European travel, yet not UK.  Has to be for political reasons, nothing else makes sense.

Yeah, blaming china is silliness, and pointless.  We (The US) have had plenty of time to get serious if the virus is the threat we seem to think it is now.  Yet it is only now, and even now it isn't full measures like China took whereby much of the nation was on some sort of lock down.    We (The US) is big on pointing fingers, without taking responsibility ourselves.  That is probably a reason we have become ostracized or ignored by so many in recent years. 

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on March 11, 2020, 08:02:17 PM
world health organization praised china for it's response to the virus
Of course they would--- both WHO and China live off your dime
Quote
it seems that those in the know disagree with how you are directing your anger
"In the know"?  (http://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/Smileys/DarkB/undecided.gif)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 11, 2020, 08:07:44 PM
Of course they would--- both WHO and China live off your dime  "(http://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/Smileys/DarkB/undecided.gif)
While I work very hard, I think I live well off of china's dime actually....

Fathertime!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 11, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
In this situation look at how little has been done in the US to this point. 


Considering WHO was telling other nations trade and travel to and from China is fine, America still took action stopping flights and is not as bad off as Europe. Our spy agencies were probably listening on phone calls of Chinese government officials losing control and planning a coverup. Time will let us know how bad we got hit but so far, Europe has a much higher infection rate than America does.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 11, 2020, 09:02:42 PM

FT, although WHO praised China in January, Trump imposed major flight restrictions on China in January. Article below. If you check anti Trump fact checking truth o meter sites, they will tell you Trump is lying about travel ban but evidence below that Trump took action in January.

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/business/china-travel-coronavirus.html

http://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel-restrictions/

A few days later States complain about Trump's new rules that happened suddenly creating chaos and Democrats criticize there's no prior planning to him making a decision. I guess they wanted Trump to wait longer before enacting the restrictions. Are there any articles out there show Democrats would've taken action faster?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/03/coronavirus-airport-quarantine/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 11, 2020, 09:11:25 PM
FT, although WHO praised China in January, Trump imposed major flight restrictions on China in January. Article below. If you check anti Trump fact checking truth o meter sites, they will tell you Trump is lying about travel ban but evidence below that Trump took action in January.

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/business/china-travel-coronavirus.html

http://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel-restrictions/

A few days later States complain about Trump's new rules that happened suddenly creating chaos and Democrats criticize there's no prior planning to him making a decision. I guess they wanted Trump to wait longer before enacting the restrictions. Are there any articles out there show Democrats would've taken action faster?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/03/coronavirus-airport-quarantine/
I wouldn't compare trump to democrats who aren't in the office of the president...i'd compare trumps actions to what his actions could have been.  I'm not necessarily being critical of trump at this point, but reality is, if he knew the virus was extremely serious, some will say he didn't take enough steps to protect americans.  Others might continue to state that the virus isn't much different than the flu and we are already doing too much. 
Fathertime!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on March 11, 2020, 09:46:14 PM
... but reality is, if he knew the virus was extremely serious, some will say he didn't take enough steps to protect americans.   
He suggested right away possibly stopping flights from China and the Main Slime Media blasted these "heartless" remarks.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 11, 2020, 10:24:28 PM
I see from  quotes that RWD's  anti-American baldy from California has been blaming Trump and touting China. 

Why can't we work together as we face this vicious pathogen, a pathogen that treats Republican and Democrats equally.  Why do we need to recall how China put the world at risk: 

              -  The Chinese government knew in December, perhaps earlier, the outbreak was serious and resembled SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

              -   When a doctor who posted on social media in late December that he had quarantined in his hospital seven patients suffering from a SARS like illness, the Wuhan police targeted him.  That doctor, named Li Wenliang, died on February 7, at a young 34, certainly not elderly

              -  The Chinese did not stop travel to and from Wuhan until late January, allowing a vast number of Wuhan citizens to travel out of the city, many to international locations, only to infect others there and continue the global spread.   

               In summary, the Chinese were more interested in "production" than "prevention," and the world is reaping the whirlwind. 

Yes, the Chinese took draconian measures, something only an autocratic government could implement.  But it was too late.   The only good news is that China now reports data suggesting they are beginning to contain the epidemic within their borders.     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 11, 2020, 10:31:26 PM
I just now watched CNN Chis Cuomo coverage of Trump's speech. 

Cuomo remarked less about the substance and more about Trump's breathing and body language.  Acosta of course accused Trump of misleading the public, having to walk back some lies, xenophobia, etc.  David Gregory partially defended Trump, yet criticized him for not showing empathy about the Italians.  Gupta just gave the facts, useful facts.     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 12, 2020, 12:01:33 AM
Considering WHO was telling other nations trade and travel to and from China is fine, America still took action stopping flights and is not as bad off as Europe. Our spy agencies were probably listening on phone calls of Chinese government officials losing control and planning a coverup. Time will let us know how bad we got hit but so far, Europe has a much higher infection rate than America does.

BillyB

Which Schengen nation banned flights to/ from China first....WAY ahead of other EU nations..

How has that worked out for them...?

Surely, it wasn't Italy?...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 12, 2020, 12:39:55 AM
BillyB

Which Schegen nation banned flights to/ from China first....WAY ahead of other EU nations..

How has that worked out for them...?

Surely, it wasn't Italy?...

You're obviously doing well mobs. 10x your size and yet? Let us know next week sweet cheeks.


I just now watched CNN Chis Cuomo coverage of Trump's speech. 

Cuomo remarked less about the substance and more about Trump's breathing and body language.  Acosta of course accused Trump of misleading the public, having to walk back some lies, xenophobia, etc.  David Gregory partially defended Trump, yet criticized him for not showing empathy about the Italians.  Gupta just gave the facts, useful facts.     

I saw that too. Personally as noted, i am a trump supporter. So watching this was incredible. Even for TDS....


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 12, 2020, 12:45:45 AM
You're obviously doing well mobs. 10x your size and yet? Let us know next week sweet cheeks.




Who what is 10 times whose size...context?


Can anyone translate?....






Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 12, 2020, 12:56:42 AM
Oh  my bad moobs. Was laughing at your expense. Honestly it happens a lot sweetheart. Was talking about economy. Carry on babygirl.

How's the TP industry?

Who what is 10 times whose size...context?


Can anyone translate?....
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: IvanM07 on March 12, 2020, 01:07:29 AM
I wouldnt imagine that those low born with raisins as their women care. but my FiL is begging me to stay there, offering one of the 3 flats I kinda hate the US so why not? Especially with upper class. I guess is Americans are better than Oirishhh. Anyhow I am grateful for an incredible FiL. I'm flying there tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 12, 2020, 06:06:38 AM
BillyB

Which Schengen nation banned flights to/ from China first....WAY ahead of other EU nations..

How has that worked out for them...?

Surely, it wasn't Italy?...

Banning flights from China is not enough. The Chinese can then just get a flight to Germany and then fly into Italy. That is why Trump is banning not just flights but also individuals that pass through or lives in China and now many European nations regardless of what flight they are on.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 12, 2020, 06:25:54 AM
Banning flights from China is not enough. The Chinese can then just get a flight to Germany and then fly into Italy. That is why Trump is banning not just flights but also individuals that pass through or lives in China and now many European nations regardless of what flight they are on.

Hmm,

..and when did Italy do THAT ?


If ever there was a time to remember the idiom "When in hole  .. stop digging " ..This is it, BillyB

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 12, 2020, 06:26:22 AM
I see from  quotes that RWD's  anti-American baldy from California has been blaming Trump and touting China. 


Humorous distortion.   The US has to take the blame for not acting sooner if the virus was deemed as dangerous as it seems to be now.  I remember Billyb commenting a long time ago at it's severity, if Billyb knew, why didn't the US top leadership know? 


               In summary, the Chinese were more interested in "production" than "prevention," and the world is reaping the whirlwind.       
what could also be said is the US and trump were more interested in the economy then saving US lives.  We could have taken steps much sooner but choose not to. 


Yes, the Chinese took draconian measures, something only an autocratic government could implement.  But it was too late.   The only good news is that China now reports data suggesting they are beginning to contain the epidemic within their borders.     

So as I read it seems you say China's system of governance is superior to the USA's in a time of crisis like this.  I don't agree that the US couldn't have done what china did, if it was deemed necessary.  It would have been painful, yet it may turn out it was necessary. 

Fathertime!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 12, 2020, 07:08:32 AM
Banning flights from China is not enough. The Chinese can then just get a flight to Germany and then fly into Italy. That is why Trump is banning not just flights but also individuals that pass through or lives in China and now many European nations regardless of what flight they are on.


Er, do you think Italy doesn't know / didn't know  how / when a Chinese national arrived in the Schengen zone ?   With every post the hole you dig for yourself re DUH just gets deeper

Example: The USA hasn't got a CLUE where a  Cypriot has been - they are not in Schengen ..


I'm not convinced such measures are helpful, now ...  but for sure ... the US is a little 'later' than Italy ( and many other nations) in all facets of dealing with the virus ..


Can you imagine anyone could be 'envious' of such a situation ? ...


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 12, 2020, 08:32:43 AM
Why can't we work together as we face this vicious pathogen, a pathogen that treats Republican and Democrats equally.  Why do we need to recall how China put the world at risk:

I stopped wondering a day after last general election.

Don't mind FT so much...when things gets down and dirty due to lockdowns, you can trust the fact he'll be first in line to file for Trump's economic assistance program.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 12, 2020, 10:03:52 AM
I stopped wondering a day after last general election.

Don't mind FT so much...when things gets down and dirty due to lockdowns, you can trust the fact he'll be first in line to file for Trump's economic assistance program.
How mean! 

I recently could have filed for workman’s comp due to recent injuries on the job  but didn’t ask for a thin dime.  I have no reason or intent to take trump federal funds if they become available.  I have plenty to survive even if business goes down the crapper with my dwindling stockpile of TP.    If things were to be so bad as to force me into insolvency the nation would be in extreme distress and federal dollars wouldn’t matter much anyway.  If need be I’ll just buy TP from Billyb or Trenchcoat at their bloated capitalist pricing.   

Fathertime!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 12, 2020, 11:05:55 AM
Er, do you think Italy doesn't know / didn't know  how / when a Chinese national arrived in the Schengen zone ? 


You said Italy had a flight ban. So that means flights coming from China are banned but flights from Germany are not banned. If I were a Chinese national and had an important business trip or vacation to Italy I didn't want to miss, I would just schedule a flight to Germany and then fly on a German plane into Italy. If you can find where Italy banned individuals, Chinese or not, that came China like Trump did, please show me.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 12, 2020, 02:00:08 PM
It simply amazes me how wacky the Democrats desperation really is. A *No Ban Act* in these times? What is wrong with these numbnuts?

http://www.oann.com/democrats-expected-to-postpone-no-ban-act-vote/

>> "The head of the Federation for American Immigration Reform has also called out the Democrats’ new legislation. He claimed their priorities lie in taking political shots at the president instead of putting the American people first.

“The American people elected President Trump to make difficult decisions in the name of public safety and the national interest,” said Dan Stein. “For House Democrats to cripple his power to protect Americans from foreign threats, including terrorists and pandemics, is a shocking dereliction of their duty as elected representatives.”

However, it is likely that President Trump will veto the bill if it passes. <<
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 12, 2020, 02:47:28 PM
You said Italy had a flight ban. So that means flights coming from China are banned but flights from Germany are not banned. If I were a Chinese national and had an important business trip or vacation to Italy I didn't want to miss, I would just schedule a flight to Germany and then fly on a German plane into Italy. If you can find where Italy banned individuals, Chinese or not, that came China like Trump did, please show me.

And SillyBillyB walked onto yet ANOTHER punch..

Naturally, I am aware ppl circumvented Italy's ban...as will those who can fly via non Schengen nations...

You knew that was my point.....right?

 :deadhorse:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 12, 2020, 03:02:56 PM
How mean! 

I recently could have filed for workman’s comp due to recent injuries on the job  but didn’t ask for a thin dime.  I have no reason or intent to take trump federal funds if they become available.  I have plenty to survive even if business goes down the crapper with my dwindling stockpile of TP.    If things were to be so bad as to force me into insolvency the nation would be in extreme distress and federal dollars wouldn’t matter much anyway.  If need be I’ll just buy TP from Billyb or Trenchcoat at their bloated capitalist pricing.   

Fathertime!

One never say never! You'll likely be tripping over jone on who gets on the front of the soup line :devil:

BUT - at least one 'expert' who's been on the frontline have more confidence with our system than we give them (it) credit for. Despite CDC's untimely bad decision, WHO's Dr. Bruce Alyward have a point.

Quote
Aylward said he had “phenomenal confidence in the ability of the U.S. to get this under control,” noting how many epidemiologists in China — which has succeeded in minimizing new cases — had trained in the United States.

“They know how to do this stuff," he said of the U.S. experts. “And they've trained thousands of people across the U.S. to get organized. You mobilize that army, and you beat this most recent of enemies.”

But, again, future may dictate otherwise.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 12, 2020, 03:31:08 PM
Came across an intersting minor spat between BY and RU ..

Russia's Pervy ( First ) channel was running a story that Belarus found 'insulting'...reporting a death due to COVID-19 on the 3rd of March.
http://belsat.eu/en/news/fake-diplomats-set-to-address-russian-tv-report-on-coronavirus-death-in-belarus/ (http://belsat.eu/en/news/fake-diplomats-set-to-address-russian-tv-report-on-coronavirus-death-in-belarus/)









Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 12, 2020, 03:36:58 PM
Naturally, I am aware ppl circumvented Italy's ban...as will those who can fly via non Schengen nations...


But you were bragging that Italy took quick action. They took quick action but they didn't take appropriate action. As I look back at the events, I'm glad Trump and his team were smarter than other governments. Banning individuals who past through China recently regardless of what plane or country they are flying from was the smart thing to do. The circumventing of Trump's ban was not possible by hopping onto another plane from another country. If you been in China recently, you can't come in. Now if you been to certain European countries recently, you can't come in.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 12, 2020, 03:43:41 PM
But you were bragging that Italy took quick action. They took quick action

OMG, BillyB is on a roll of FAILS...

No..I pointed out Italy was was ahead in testing...and implementing schemes to try to thwart the spread...

I did NOT claim they worked.. If fact I do believe I pointed out why flight bans haven't worked...

'Trampu's' 'ban' has already morphed into allowing Schengen zone flights to land at 15 designated airports ...to screen arrivals..



NOT what he said in his address...






 
Title: novel coronavirus originating in the USA?
Post by: 2tallbill on March 20, 2020, 08:54:13 AM
China Spins Tale That the U.S. Army Started the Coronavirus Epidemic
Published March 13, 2020
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-china-conspiracy-theory.html


Inside China’s campaign to blame the U.S. for the coronavirus pandemic
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/inside-chinas-campaign-to-blame-the-us-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-03-15


China’s new top priority: spinning coronavirus — and blaming the US
http://nypost.com/2020/03/17/chinas-new-top-priority-spinning-coronavirus-and-blaming-the-us/


Chinese diplomat accuses US Army of creating coronavirus
epidemic in Wuhan

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/chinese-diplomat-accuses-us-army-of-creating-coronavirus-epidemic-in-wuhan


Title: (Novel coronavirus originating from Trump)
Post by: 2tallbill on March 20, 2020, 10:33:28 AM
New reports reveal the dark money network working to politicize coronavirus
http://americansforpublictrust.org/news/new-reports-reveal-the-dark-money-network-working-to-politicize-coronavirus/


Democrat Dark Money Groups To Spend Millions Politicizing Wuhan Flu
http://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/democrat-dark-money-groups-to-spend-millions-politicizing-wuhan-flu/


Title: Re: (Novel coronavirus originating from Trump)
Post by: Gator on March 20, 2020, 02:55:05 PM

Democrat Dark Money Groups To Spend Millions Politicizing Wuhan Flu


That will be a new low.  We should not expect less from such a miserable lot of people.   

To set this up, the media must first scare the people.  And they are trying!   Did you hear the reporter today ask Trump if he was "scared."  Trump jumped all over his ass. 

Title: Re: (Novel coronavirus originating from Trump)
Post by: fathertime on March 20, 2020, 07:24:40 PM
That will be a new low.  We should not expect less from such a miserable lot of people.   

To set this up, the media must first scare the people.  And they are trying!   Did you hear the reporter today ask Trump if he was "scared."  Trump jumped all over his ass.
If anything, it is the republicans that sound utterly miserable.   

Listening to talk radio in the car, all they could talk about is China, China, China....just distorting and playing the blame game.  Trying to gin up hate and demonize...as evidenced by your post, it is succeeding.

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: (Novel coronavirus originating from Trump)
Post by: calmissile on March 20, 2020, 10:28:00 PM
That will be a new low.  We should not expect less from such a miserable lot of people.   

To set this up, the media must first scare the people.  And they are trying!   Did you hear the reporter today ask Trump if he was "scared."  Trump jumped all over his ass.

I am beginning to think reporters are the most stupid idiots in our society.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 20, 2020, 11:56:31 PM
..and *I* despair when I hear Russians, Chinese, Iranians and Americans (and wack job Brits) blaming each other ... with their 'conspiracy theories'..



Title: Re: (Novel coronavirus originating from Trump)
Post by: Gator on March 21, 2020, 09:06:29 AM
I am beginning to think reporters are the most stupid idiots in our society.

I did not report it correctly.  The NBC reporter asked Trump what he would say to people who are scared. 

Not as bad as asking Trump if he was scared, yet an unnecessary question because Trump was talking to all Americans of all levels of anxiety.  It was not a FDR "...fear itself" speech." Instead,  Trump and the task force reported  the significant  Federal actions undertaken to address the virus.  And they reiterated the guidelines.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 30, 2020, 06:41:18 AM

Moving on, the latest bill that was passed should’ve included premium pay for all the medical personnel currently doing battle with this virus. Not only because of the constant hazard, long hours but also the fact they are also putting their own family in harms way every time they come home if they haven’t made personnel to separate themselves during this crisis.

We’ve tried to give our VA great leeway lately and methinks these folks are on the same battle fronts as our soldiers.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 30, 2020, 08:15:20 AM
Moving on, the latest bill that was passed should’ve included premium pay for all the medical personnel currently doing battle with this virus. Not only because of the constant hazard, long hours but also the fact they are also putting their own family in harms way every time they come home if they haven’t made personnel to separate themselves during this crisis.

100% agree for metropolitan areas such as NYC and NOLA. 

When in Vietnam, the US Army  added to my base salary not a small amount termed "combat pay."  I never fired my weapon in a year, yet the threat was there, especially the few times I went into the bush (e. g., bridge recon, engineering resupply). 


Quote
We’ve tried to give our VA great leeway lately and methinks these folks are on the same battle fronts as our soldiers.

A good question I could ask my golfing friend Doc with the VA ER.  I haven't seen him in a month.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 30, 2020, 08:31:42 AM
A good question I could ask my golfing friend Doc with the VA ER.  I haven't seen him in a month.   

I hope he's been wiser than you re self-isolating ...  Your wife was correct to be worried about you ...


Take care....   I need to have someone to fight over a bone with ....
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 30, 2020, 08:47:05 AM

Take care....   I need to have someone to fight over a bone with ....

I welcome a scientific challenge.  Spirited political debate and the ramblings by autistic members are not helpful.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 30, 2020, 08:48:34 AM
MORE GOOD NEWS IN THE HEALTH INDUSTRY

The US and world's healthcare industry (pharmaceuticals,  medical devices, insurance, etc.) are refocused around combating the CV-19 virus.  New developments are rolling out at a fast and furious pace. Here are three from the weekend and today:

Testing - FDA approved a new testing method developed by Abbott Labs that can produce "positive" results in 5 minutes and confirm "negative" results in 15 minutes.   The best part, the analytical device is small and can be deployed at point of use (e. g., hospitals, urgent care,....).  Also, The sample collection is also easier than the current method, and does not require changing PPE.  The stock ABT is up over 7% today. 

Therapeutic Drugs -    FDA yesterday gave two anti-malaria drugs emergency approval to treat COVID-19 .  This possibility was discussed at RWD earlier.    The approval allows 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and 1 million doses of chloroquine phosphate to be donated to the Strategic National Stockpile. The doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate were donated by Sandoz, while the chloroquine phosphate was developed by Bayer Pharmaceuticals.

The products will be "distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," HHS said.

Vaccines - Johnson & Johnson said Monday human testing of its experimental vaccine for the coronavirus will begin by September and it could be available for emergency use authorization in early 2021.  Using new technology J&J is modifying an existing framework that has proven use as safe and beneficial for other viruses.   JNJ stock is also up 7% today. 

WE WILL DEFEAT THE COVID-19 SCOURGE!

THE SUN WILL COME OUT TOMORROW!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 30, 2020, 08:51:07 AM
I welcome a scientific challenge.  Spirited political debate and the ramblings by autistic members are not helpful.

Ah, yes ... 'Scientific' like your President's 'hunches' and drug recommendations ? ...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 30, 2020, 09:06:26 AM
Ah, yes ... 'Scientific' like your President's 'hunches' and drug recommendations ? ...

Please! 

 

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 30, 2020, 10:51:57 AM
MORE GOOD NEWS IN THE HEALTH INDUSTRY
.........
Therapeutic Drugs -    FDA yesterday gave two anti-malaria drugs emergency approval to treat COVID-19 .  This possibility was discussed at RWD earlier.    The approval allows 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and 1 million doses of chloroquine phosphate to be donated to the Strategic National Stockpile. The doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate were donated by Sandoz, while the chloroquine phosphate was developed by Bayer Pharmaceuticals.

The products will be "distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," HHS said.

Anecdotal or otherwise, there’s enough reasons and results out there that gives this treatment ‘hope’. Although I was under the knowledge it was far more effective if used in conjunction with azithromycin.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 30, 2020, 11:12:27 AM
If the current reported numbers are correct, presently NY has 66,500 cases (worldometer), of which, 9,517 are hospitalized (http://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus). That's a 14% hospitalization rate. I believe I heard Cuomo's statement where he said 33% are in ventilators...making the number roughly at > 3,200 ventilators...

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 30, 2020, 11:47:07 AM
Here is an interesting information if true...

I have been trying to find accurate reports for California, just like Florida have in their state's web-data regarding the coronavirus, but have difficulty getting one. Not for the state and not for our city/county. You would think with silicon valley established in our state that our information delivery will be over and above...nyet.

So I guess in reading this article (http://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/coronavirus-data-privacy.html), it actually gives a viable reason as to why not.

Quote
...
California, which has more than 4,600 cases, is a microcosm for how inconsistent the distribution of information has been during the pandemic. Los Angeles County provides a rough age distribution of patients and breaks down the cases into more than 140 cities and communities. On Friday, for example, the county reported 21 cases in Beverly Hills, 28 in the city of Santa Monica and 49 in the neighborhood of Melrose.

Across the United States there is even less consistency. New York is listing cases by age bracket, gender and borough despite calls for more localized reporting. Connecticut lists data by town. Florida provides its residents with a wealth of data on the pandemic. The state’s Department of Health has a detailed dashboard and reports showing the spread of the virus — rich with data on the cities affected, the number of people tested, the age brackets of patients, whether they are Florida residents, and the number of cases in nursing homes.

Health departments in the Bay Area make the case that releasing more granular data could heighten discrimination against certain communities where there might be clusters. The first cases in the Bay Area were among ethnic Chinese residents returning from trips to China.

“Pandemics increase paranoia and stigma,” said Dr. Rohan Radhakrishna, the deputy health officer of Contra Costa County, across the Bay from San Francisco, which provides only the total number of cases in the county on its website. “We must be extra cautious in protecting individuals and the community.”

In Santa Clara, health officials say they cannot disclose how many cases are found in each city because of the nation’s strict medical privacy law, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, or HIPAA, signed by President Bill Clinton in 1996....

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on March 30, 2020, 12:04:11 PM
GQ,

This one help? 

http://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

Can also use http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and drill down using the Admin2 tab.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 30, 2020, 12:59:35 PM
GQ,

This one help? 

http://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

Can also use http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and drill down using the Admin2 tab.

It actually uses the same source, or maybe this source is the one LA is getting them from..

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2287

The info above it not really up-to-date. If you check Florida's state health department site, it's by far and away much more informative and much more 'current' than the one we have in California/LA.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on March 30, 2020, 01:22:15 PM
GQ,

Yes, the Florida site is pretty nice.  http://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/74c7375b03894e68920c2d0131eef1e6

Quite likely in the future there will be a standardized format for all allowing for easier comparison.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 30, 2020, 01:27:15 PM
I like the fact they give you hospitalization count. Instead of just stating x-amount of positive infection. Knowing this bit of information is actually helpful. At least for me to help gauge the severity of these cases.

It must be Florida is so full of retired folks that have nothing to do but create websites (lol).

-----------------------------------

I was reading some reports the other day as to what 'medical condition' is proving to be the most vulnerable to this virus. It seems that diabetes is at the top of the list, followed by high blood / coronary conditions. Little wonder why countries like Norway is experiencing very low death rate, relatively, since they have a very low number of diabetics. I'm not sure if this is part of the problem in Italy/Spain.

FTR- worldwide, Pacific Islander / Asian, have by far the largest number of people with diabetes.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on March 30, 2020, 01:38:58 PM
Doesn't really look like diabetes played much of a role here, but of course those with advanced diabetes mostly on their last leg could well be more succeptible.

http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings

Heard also that maybe blood type may be a factor, that folks with O may not get hit as hard.  Not counting on it though.

http://heavy.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-blood-type-type-a-type-o/

So much to still learn.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 30, 2020, 02:14:09 PM
Can also use http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and drill down using the Admin2 tab.


Same map, click on Admin 0, click on US, go to the John Hopkins map in the central panel and zoom in.  This will can take you to data for "districts" within each state.

In Florida districts are counties and include all cities incorporated within each county.  I don't know how California is organized as I see more dots than counties.  New York is not apparent either - NYC is one dot when it is composed of five boroughs, which were counties at one time. 

I use this to follow my cousin (a research microbiologist)  in Los Alamos, NM and see her county has zero cases.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 30, 2020, 02:17:59 PM

Trump and Co briefing happening right now. Over a million tests completed which is more than any nation has done. Over 100,000 tests happening each day now which is more daily testing than any other nation is doing.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 30, 2020, 02:28:17 PM

Yes, the Florida site is pretty nice.  http://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/74c7375b03894e68920c2d0131eef1e6


Strange!  The layout of your Florida dashboard differs from mine even though both are FL Dept of Health.  Data are the same.  Both use the same "site icon" as the John Hopkins map.   

I wonder given the massive effort underway at all level of government that we may have overlap.  Anyway, a mystery that will remain unsolved.

http://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 30, 2020, 02:30:34 PM

Trump said as manufacturing of ventilators outpace our needs, we will send ventilators to Italy, France, Spain and other countries. Trump also said he will send other supplies to Italy.
Title: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on March 30, 2020, 02:32:17 PM
Trump and Co briefing happening right now. Over a million tests completed which is more than any nation has done. Over 100,000 tests happening each day now which is more daily testing than any other nation is doing.

NO WAY!!!

Trump is terrible and wants everyone to die!!
Especially the poor and minorities!!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 30, 2020, 02:47:17 PM

Just watched a lot of business leaders speak. America's powerhouse industry is firing on all cylinders in the war against the virus. The fact Trump is already talking about shipping supplies to other nations tell me shortages of supplies at home will not be a problem anymore.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on March 30, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Trump said as manufacturing of ventilators outpace our needs, we will send ventilators to Italy, France, Spain and other countries. Trump also said he will send other supplies to Italy.

I am sure useful supplies will be appreciated but hope a drop in demand over the next 10 days or so won't necessitate more ventilators.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 30, 2020, 03:17:41 PM
NO WAY!!!

Trump is terrible and wants everyone to die!!
Especially the poor and minorities!!

'Trampu' is full of it ..sadly, as you'll discover .. the HARD way ..

1/ What sort of 'tests' - given there are two sorts - with varying accuracy depending if you are in early stages or finished the symptoms  ?

2/ http://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data (http://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data)  Australia ( example) has tested 113615 - which is proportionately WAY ahead of the US in numbers and percentiles of the population

3/ BillyB and ventilators ..  by the time you're really hit .. you may indeed have more ventilators than staff who are well enough to operate them ((   Your 'leader' just keeps on spoutin' stuff that is going to look foolish down the line ((





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 30, 2020, 03:23:36 PM
I am sure useful supplies will be appreciated but hope a drop in demand over the next 10 days or so won't necessitate more ventilators.


Hopefully Italy and the rest of Europe's curve dramatically decreases soon to the point you won't need help. If Europe doesn't need supplies, I'm sure Africa and South America will use them. They are behind the rest of the world but they will soon have to deal with their own outbreaks.

Nations still need to partner up to create enough test kits for everybody in the world. Another task is to create an accurate test. No test kit in the world is 100% accurate. China has the production means but many of their tests are unreliable.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 30, 2020, 03:29:14 PM
I am sure useful supplies will be appreciated but hope a drop in demand over the next 10 days or so won't necessitate more ventilators.

Let's hope so.  I imagine this winter we may have photos of surplus ventilators lined up like surplus bombers in boneyards after WWII.  WARTIME SPENDING!!!!

(http://www.airplaneboneyards.com/images/walnut-ridge/walnut-ridge-airfield-boneyard-aerial-november-1945.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: calmissile on March 30, 2020, 04:25:02 PM
Don't know about the rest of the country, but the weather in So Cal is beautiful today.  75 deg F.  It's days like this during the shutdown that I can take advantage of it and get some long overdue projects done.  The streets are mostly empty and even in the neighborhood there are very few people out walking which is unusual.  Seems like most people in the area are respecting the quarantine in place orders.
 We will overcome this epidemic.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 30, 2020, 08:27:42 PM
NO WAY!!!

Trump is terrible and wants everyone to die!!
Especially the poor and minorities!!
What can be said is that Trump doesn't want everybody to vote!

 
Trump says Democrats' push for expanded voting threatens Republicans

....Trump said that Democrat-proposed voting reforms to the $2.2 trillion rescue package passed last week by Congress — which were largely cut from the deal — would have led to “levels of voting, that if you ever agreed to it you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”

Democrats have pushed to mandate that states make plans to expand early voting and mail-in balloting for the fall election, in the event that the coronavirus pandemic makes in-person voting unsafe.....


  http://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-democrats-push-for-expanded-voting-threatens-republicans-172601374.html   (http://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-democrats-push-for-expanded-voting-threatens-republicans-172601374.html)

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 30, 2020, 08:35:57 PM
Don't know about the rest of the country, but the weather in So Cal is beautiful today.  75 deg F.  It's days like this during the shutdown that I can take advantage of it and get some long overdue projects done.  The streets are mostly empty and even in the neighborhood there are very few people out walking which is unusual.  Seems like most people in the area are respecting the quarantine in place orders.
 We will overcome this epidemic.
Today I thought there were less people out and about.  Another guy I spoke with today said he thought there was more.   The freeway was smooth sailing not much different than last week.  I had two hot younger ladies come into my shop drinking Budweiser beer while driving on the road, and ready to 'party it up' with me if I had any interest. That's what I get for not wearing my stupid mask today.   

Fathertime! 

F

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 31, 2020, 08:06:16 AM
Hopefully Italy and the rest of Europe's curve dramatically decreases soon to the point you won't need help. ...

Yeppers. I sure hope it really does slow to a stop in Italy. It's been ridiculous how it got hit so hard. Spain, too. The sad part in all of these is those who perished are looked upon as statistical dots despite every single one of those who died do have grieving family and friends - including those who spent the time treating and trying to save their lives.

Speaking of virus and dying, I don't know...I still have a difficult time wrapping my head around this comparison table. Exactly 'why' this current *pandemic* is creating this much attention and disturbance.

COVID-19 US STATISTICS (http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

2018-2019 US INFLUENZA STATISTICS (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html)

What am I missing here? Even if you project comparable number of months for COVID-19, it would still fall short to the Influenza's toll in comparison.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 31, 2020, 08:12:40 AM
What can be said is that Trump doesn't want everybody to vote!

 
Trump says Democrats' push for expanded voting threatens Republicans

....Trump said that Democrat-proposed voting reforms to the $2.2 trillion rescue package passed last week by Congress — which were largely cut from the deal — would have led to “levels of voting, that if you ever agreed to it you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”

Democrats have pushed to mandate that states make plans to expand early voting and mail-in balloting for the fall election, in the event that the coronavirus pandemic makes in-person voting unsafe.....


  http://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-democrats-push-for-expanded-voting-threatens-republicans-172601374.html   (http://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-democrats-push-for-expanded-voting-threatens-republicans-172601374.html)

Fathertime!

Dude!

Do me a freaking favor and post your silly political BS in quasi-Brexit II/msmob trenchcoat dialogue thread (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=d4e5e036b55873ed21393db0511d598e&topic=24217.msg530917;topicseen#new) please..

Or if you feel lacking and out of place for ruining that thread, then post your pro-China BS in this thread (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=21530.msg530899#new).

If all else fails, learn f@#king mandarin, and start freely posting your thoughts in some CCP chat sites, man.

Why do you feel so compelled to trot your stupid anti-US thoughts everywhere? Do you not get enough attention at home?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 31, 2020, 08:44:23 AM

Do me a freaking favor and post your silly political BS ..


Why do you feel so compelled to trot your stupid anti-US thoughts everywhere? Do you not get enough attention at home?

As opposed to 'someone' getting busted by a fellow US citizen .. when asked " where did I post anything that was untrue"? ...and all that 'someone' could respond was " wait until November", some 'riposte' ..

Wow, someone's suffering from a severe case of 'hypocrisitis'..


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on March 31, 2020, 08:49:19 AM
What am I missing here? Even if you project comparable number of months for COVID-19, it would still fall short to the Influenza's toll in comparison.

GQ,

Is a good question.  The answer is pretty simple though - the unknown.  We don't know much about this virus at all vs decades of experience with influenza for which we have vaccines (albeit not perfect) and meds that help. We also know it is seasonal. Our healthcare systems are set up to handle the aftermath of the flu.  We obviously do not have the capacities to handle this new virus.

Also, note that most of the population does not get it and signs are (HK) that it may easily come back for more, and more, and more. We don't know if it will be a seasonal thing. We don't really know yet how long immunity lasts.  Although the virus seems pretty stable, we don't know if it might morph, making future vaccines useless or if it can become even more dangerous.

Left to run on its own, it could easily slam dunk influenza all year long.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on March 31, 2020, 09:24:33 AM
What can be said is that Trump doesn't want illegals, dead people
or people to vote more than once!
Fathertime!

I fixed that for you
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 31, 2020, 10:01:40 AM
GQ,

Is a good question.  The answer is pretty simple though - the unknown.  We don't know much about this virus at all vs decades of experience with influenza for which we have vaccines (albeit not perfect) and meds that help. We also know it is seasonal. Our healthcare systems are set up to handle the aftermath of the flu.  We obviously do not have the capacities to handle this new virus.

Also, note that most of the population does not get it and signs are (HK) that it may easily come back for more, and more, and more. We don't know if it will be a seasonal thing. We don't really know yet how long immunity lasts.  Although the virus seems pretty stable, we don't know if it might morph, making future vaccines useless or if it can become even more dangerous.

Left to run on its own, it could easily slam dunk influenza all year long.

BC-

I can understand the part of this novel virus as such, and very likely the 'influenza infection cases' are consistent today as they've always had been, thus making the COVID-19 cases we see today as adding to the burden in our healthcare facilities. This is causing the additional angst, additional equipment needs, etc...justifying the additional 'attention' and effort.

I will just take the US case for the sake of discussion. We have so far 3,100 deaths. This is spread out over a month. 100 deaths/day. At the same token, in the same time span, deaths by accidents, crimes, etc..had also decreased - so why again the reaction just doesn't seem to fit what is really more or less 'normal'?

As of today, over a million testing resulted in 165,000 positive cases. Of this number to date, 3,100 have died. That's less than 2% dead from the 'known' active cases, or 37,200 deaths/yr. Per capita would be relatively miniscule.

Auto accidents, on a yearly average, causes 38,000 deaths in the US. Yet, we don't freeze our highways and roads, much less the entire economy, to curb auto accidents. Heck, I don't remember witnessing the type of reaction we have today when HIV/AIDS first came to light back in the '80s either.

Anyway, I'm just perplexed as to the seeming lost of perspective. Not saying this isn't serious and should be taken for granted. I'm just saying the reaction to me doesn't seem to 'fit' the usual atypical (I know, redundant) novel pandemics.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 31, 2020, 10:46:17 AM

COVID-19 US STATISTICS (http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

2018-2019 US INFLUENZA STATISTICS (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html)

What am I missing here? Even if you project comparable number of months for COVID-19, it would still fall short to the Influenza's toll in comparison.




It's easy GQ. Everybody in the world experienced influenza multiple times in their lives. Only 780,000 confirmed people experience COVID-19 and out of a world population that's 1 out of every 10,000 people or .0001% of the population of the world. While 100% of the people in the world experiences influenza, it doesn't fill up our hospitals but .0001% experiencing COVID-19 will start to overwhelm hospitals. Multiply the problems you see now by 10,000 by giving everybody a taste of COVID-19, it's easy to see what will happen.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on March 31, 2020, 10:51:01 AM

It's easy GQ. Everybody in the world experienced influenza multiple times in their lives. Only 780,000 confirmed people experience COVID-19 and out of a world population that's 1 out of every 10,000 people or .0001% of the population of the world. While 100% of the people in the world experiences influenza, it doesn't fill up our hospitals but .0001% experiencing COVID-19 will start to overwhelm hospitals. Multiply the problems you see now by 10,000 by giving everybody a taste of COVID-19, it's easy to see what will happen.

BillyB

If you think only 780k have had this virus you just proved you've not been paying attention

Tests in many countries simply aren't implemented - in the UK - the numbers MAY be up to 10 times those 'reported' ... the govt has said this

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 31, 2020, 10:55:09 AM

It's easy GQ. Everybody in the world experienced influenza multiple times in their lives. Only 780,000 confirmed people experience COVID-19 and out of a world population that's 1 out of every 10,000 people or .0001% of the population of the world. While 100% of the people in the world experiences influenza, it doesn't fill up our hospitals but .0001% experiencing COVID-19 will start to overwhelm hospitals. Multiply the problems you see now by 10,000 by giving everybody a taste of COVID-19, it's easy to see what will happen.

BillyB, yes...part of what I said upthread is the hospitalization rate for influenza is constant every year (more or less), we can almost anticipate its seasonal barrage - so anything COVID-19 causes today will simply be 'an additional' burden to current hospitalization demand.

But the point I was trying to make (and likely not doing a good job of it) is, this (COVID-19) 'rate' of hospitalization presently is still relatively much lower to be demanding this much chaos and reaction. Especially since the 'model' we see today is (as in the case of NY), only 15%+/- of hospitalization occurs for the active cases we know today. Big numbers yes, but remember the decreasing numbers of ICU/hospitalization caused by other mishap as a result of this crisis e.g. crimes, accidents, etc...is also freeing up and decreasing the hospitalization rate at the same time.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on March 31, 2020, 11:04:16 AM
The number of deaths in IT skyrocketed a good bit after the rise in cases.  Most of the serious ICU cases stick around for a long time.  This is why the death rate in Italy is still high even as the numbers of new infections drop.

Manufacturers work every day to make driving in cars safer and law enforcement always increases efforts to remove unsafe drivers from our roads.  In other words we are for a good part 'in control' and have ways to make driving safer.

We don't feel 'in control' of this virus, thus this 'unknown' that causes death also causes fear and a sense of helplessness.

Doing nothing (as in staying home) - which is what most of us are doing now is a very unusual 'cure' we are not used to.  The virus is controlling us instead.

As for the media, it's the biggest story in a long time.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 31, 2020, 11:18:49 AM
anything COVID-19 causes today will simply be 'an additional' burden to current hospitalization demand.


For some hotspots in the world, entire hospitals needed to be built just to handle this virus and hotels needed to quarantine those who have mild symptoms. COVID-19 has been around for only a few months and it's in it's infancy. We can't let it grow up. It's already changed the way we behave. At the current pace with immediate damage to our economies without no signs of reversal, civilization will begin a decline. Hopefully we will find a vaccine or at least a treatment. To date, nothing has proven to work.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 31, 2020, 12:50:42 PM
Dude!

Do me a freaking favor and post your silly political BS in quasi-Brexit II/msmob trenchcoat dialogue thread (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=d4e5e036b55873ed21393db0511d598e&topic=24217.msg530917;topicseen#new) please..

Or if you feel lacking and out of place for ruining that thread, then post your pro-China BS in this thread (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=21530.msg530899#new).

If all else fails, learn f@#king mandarin, and start freely posting your thoughts in some CCP chat sites, man.

Why do you feel so compelled to trot your stupid anti-US thoughts everywhere? Do you not get enough attention at home?
Dude!  You can't handle it then don't read it.   I was responding to another political statement.  Just because you have a bias, doesn't give you authority to selectively call out political statements from one side and not the other and think it will carry any weight with me.

Clearly you don't get enough attention, so I'll be delighted to continue to give you plenty to comment angrily about.   :D
Fathertime!   


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 31, 2020, 12:55:29 PM
I fixed that for you

That wasn't a fix, that was changing what Trump actually did say and what poor GQ all upset.   Trump doesn't want people dead, he just doesn't want them all to vote.  The country needs their labor but not their input on who is president!   

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 31, 2020, 12:58:23 PM
Dude!  You can't handle it then don't read it.   I was responding to another political statement.  Just because you have a bias, doesn't give you authority to selectively call out political statements from one side and not the other and think it will carry any weight with me.

Clearly you don't get enough attention, so I'll be delighted to continue to give you plenty to comment angrily about.   :D
Fathertime!   

Here you go!

http://www.century21global.com/for-sale-residential/China/Wuhan
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on March 31, 2020, 01:02:49 PM
Here you go!

http://www.century21global.com/for-sale-residential/China/Wuhan
Sorry you are stuck with me here in the states.  You would like to stifle effective dissent .  It is easy to stifle idiotic dissent, but the recent objection I made regarding direct comments by Trump not wanting people to vote is too egregious to argue on that topic so let the distraction begin. 

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on March 31, 2020, 01:05:53 PM
dissent?

ahh.. I see corrected.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on March 31, 2020, 01:22:18 PM
I had just finished listening to California's Governor Newsom. I am encouraged that at least for the time being the nation's governors, at least most of them, are donning *American* instead of (R)/(D)/(I).

Gov. Newsom stated that obviously not all states have equal purchasing power, and unfortunately there will be instances where this pandemic wouldn't care which state have better ability to don ample resources to help combat this epidemic. That said, apparently the governors will maintain a common resource that will be fluid according to the need, and not according to the state who can afford better afford them. This will at least eliminate a bidding war against each other with states having greater purchasing power monopolizing the greater lot.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 31, 2020, 05:25:02 PM

Manufacturers work every day to make driving in cars safer and law enforcement always increases efforts to remove unsafe drivers from our roads.  In other words we are for a good part 'in control' and have ways to make driving safer.

Not only do we feel "in control" when driving a car,  we voluntarily accept the risk when getting behind the wheel.   We want to go from Point A to Point B.     

Quote
Doing nothing (as in staying home) - which is what most of us are doing now is a very unusual 'cure' we are not used to.

You never met my younger son.

 
Quote
As for the media, it's the biggest story in a long time.

Unemployed, distancing people are bored.  They are ravenous for information. 

How big was the Spanish Flu news story in 1918-1919?   Killed 40-50 million around the globe.  No TV then, little  mitigation.

The largest of them all - God Forbid - the Bubonic Plague (14thC).  Estimated to have killed 30 - 50% of Europe's population.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on March 31, 2020, 05:44:54 PM
I had just finished listening to California's Governor Newsom. I am encouraged that at least for the time being the nation's governors, at least most of them, are donning *American* instead of (R)/(D)/(I).

I noticed such in the brief CA news shown here.   This occurs with Newsom and other Guvs because  under Federalism Governors are responsible for public health within their states.  They are executive leaders and take the reins in the need for a concerted community-county-state-national effort where politics has no place. 

I assert the states and counties will do a better job than if we had some mega Federal public health agency.   The task of coordination is not easy given the complexity of the public-private relationships. 

I would fail if I did not mention we are most dependent upon the doctors, nurses, and hospitals along the battlefront.     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on March 31, 2020, 07:08:57 PM
How big was the Spanish Flu news story in 1918-1919?   Killed 40-50 million around the globe.  No TV then, little  mitigation.The largest of them all - God Forbid - the Bubonic Plague (14thC).  Estimated to have killed 30 - 50% of Europe's population.
Quote
From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just the month of October (http://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-deaths-october-1918). And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave of the Spanish flu exhibited what’s called a “W curve”—high numbers of deaths among the young and old, but also a huge spike in the middle composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.

http://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on March 31, 2020, 09:40:26 PM
As for the media, it's the biggest story in a long time.


Long time since a big story happened for them? The Impeachment of Donald Trump was big for the media. Although the impeachment trial finished just last month, the Donald was focused on the virus back in January restricting travel from China. Democrats were more focused on restricting Trump from being President.

How big was the Spanish Flu news story in 1918-1919?   Killed 40-50 million around the globe.  No TV then, little  mitigation.

The largest of them all - God Forbid - the Bubonic Plague (14thC).  Estimated to have killed 30 - 50% of Europe's population.   

For plagues caused by bacteria, we have antibiotics. For flus, we have vaccines. We don't have anything for coronaviruses. No vaccines and no treatments. During WWI and the Spanish Flu, the world didn't face a big recession because the war kept industries working to max potential. This coronavirus pandemic will be like the Spanish Flu and Great Depression combined if we don't beat it. We can't work during outbreaks. We can try to work but if we didn't take action against the virus, hundreds of millions of people in the world can die.

Some experts say Dr. Fauci is ridiculously optimistic with his 12-18 month estimate for a vaccine. They said they were sure Dr. Fauci knew that too. But Dr. Fauci is on the Trump bandwagon of giving people hope. The Swine Flu vaccine was created in a very fast 6 months. What is the average time for a vaccine for a coronavirus to be created? Don't know. All previous attempts to create a vaccine for a coronavirus failed.

http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 01, 2020, 02:25:34 AM
But Dr. Fauci is on the Trump bandwagon of giving people hope.

WHAT a load of tripe..

Giving 'hope' wasn't about telling folks there'd be nothing to worry about ...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 01, 2020, 07:43:11 AM

Giving 'hope' wasn't about telling folks there'd be nothing to worry about ...

You are still dwelling on politics?!?!   

For miserable old men like you, the "half-full glass" approach will not work.  Miserable old men die alone, in their own piss and shit. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 01, 2020, 08:01:54 AM
Now I realize the moderator protects this particular poster, but can't we at least have a thread without 'him' pestering every thread with his stupid political stupidity? It is an absurdity with the fact this idiot is NOT even a citizen, or a resident of the US, including not even being IN the country.

Why is this crap allowed to happen for this idiot? Everyone, please DO NOT FEED THE TROLL! Let him wallow in his own misery...alone. *Happy* people just don't do this sh!t.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 01, 2020, 08:53:12 AM
It would be obvious for me to be interested in what's going on in my state. So I surf a lot of information not only for our county, but statewide. As of right now, I've been fairly disappointed in how our state fares regarding giving up-to-date information to its residents. Statewide - it is rated a 'B'. but that would actually be worse if not for certain counties' effort to spend the time and virtually serve its respective resident with great information.

The one I liked so far is Sonoma County. Close to wine country, and is just north of California's richest county, Marin. It's still an upscale area with Santa Rosa being its main city. The area is generally fairly pristine / quaint, if not outright an awesome place to live in. My wife loved this area.

Here's their Coronavirus reporting website: Sonoma County (http://sonomacounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=21a1653b79ba42039ff22bcb85fa5b19)

One thing that I noted that seem interesting is the number of *uninsured* folks. Interesting because noting the household median income, @ $81K +, then looking at the number of people on the poverty level. Anyway, at least their reporting is pretty comprehensive.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 01, 2020, 09:23:08 AM
As of right now, I've been fairly disappointed in how our state fares regarding giving up-to-date information to its residents. ....The one I liked so far is Sonoma County. Here's their Coronavirus reporting website: Sonoma County (http://sonomacounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=21a1653b79ba42039ff22bcb85fa5b19)


Excellent site.  On a population basis, about the same "test results" with an even smaller percentage as reported for my county.  Hospitalization rate same  as my county.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 01, 2020, 09:58:35 AM
The county area is fairly 'large' relative its population, which is a huge plus during this crisis.

For LA county, there's 534 new cases, making a total of 3,000+. Our county's hospitalization rate had doubled in the last 3 days. Of the 'positive cases, 20% are hospitalized (600+). Of this number, 25% of them are in ICU(150). La County reported 19 deaths in one day. The highest day toll so far. Death toll = 54. Numbers are increasing, but still relatively miniscule against total population, 10.2 million.

Adding to the angst, our statewide prison system policy had started 'releasing' alleged non-violent criminals to the street ahead of their sentences. Many are 'sex offenders'. How that is classified as 'non-violent' is beyond me. Though this isn't isolated in California alone. The likes of Cosby, Avenatti, Madoff. R. Kelly et al are requesting early releases to keep them from 'harm'. I'm surprised Harvey Weinstein hadn't followed suit.

Strange days we're all living in these days.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 01, 2020, 11:09:12 AM
You are still dwelling on politics?!?!   

While 'we' on this side of the pond ( esp any poster in N. Italy ) have endured posts 'praising' our respective leaders 'inaction', you mean ...?


For miserable old men like you, the "half-full glass" approach will not work.  Miserable old men die alone, in their own piss and shit. 

IF this was some sort of 'please pointing out the huge mistakes of our respective leaders' .. it is falling on deaf ears, Gator ..


I've been pretty vocal about the UK govt BSing folk about heath and care workers being tested ... they have been (and still are) spending time in self-isolation as they do not know if they've had the virus .. needlessly

That's not 'political' ... it's poor management - given the time the UK had to order test kits ...'We'v'e' had drive in, drive through' test centres opened and closed ....lots of upbeat bollox that turned out to be meaningless ... 


This is not about 'optimism' .. I'm eternally optimistic ... it's about monumentally poor management





 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 01, 2020, 11:16:03 AM
Now I realize the moderator protects this particular poster

I have been warned for simply responding to your repeating lies ..  is that 'protection' ?

but can't we at least have a thread without 'him' pestering every thread with his stupid political stupidity? It is an absurdity with the fact this idiot is NOT even a citizen, or a resident of the US, including not even being IN the country.

Are you for REAL ? ... Since when has thread had a 'sign' on it saying US citizens only ? Did you check the title ?   

Why is this crap allowed to happen for this idiot? Everyone, please DO NOT FEED THE TROLL! Let him wallow in his own misery...alone. *Happy* people just don't do this sh!t.

 :deadhorse:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 01, 2020, 12:46:18 PM

For miserable old men like you, the "half-full glass" approach will not work.  Miserable old men die alone, in their own piss and shit. 
Interesting how often a few of the more miserable old men of the board either wish death upon someone or hint at it in graphic terms.  Willing to say this all over a political disagreement.  interesting, and telling

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 01, 2020, 12:52:30 PM
Interesting how often a few of the more miserable old men of the board either wish death upon someone or hint at it in graphic terms.  Willing to say this all over a political disagreement.  interesting, and telling

Fathertime!

Good evening, FT

I don't believe Phil was wishing 'bad' on me .. merely suggesting "no one loves you", so I'll 'die alone' ..

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on April 01, 2020, 05:08:29 PM
A Major Medical Staffing Company Just Slashed
Benefits for Doctors and Nurses Fighting Coronavirus

http://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-er-doctors-nurses-benefits
Title: More than 25,000 Corona deaths in Wuhan
Post by: ML on April 02, 2020, 09:22:53 AM
Heard just a brief snippet on national news last night that USA intelligence is saying that China actually had > 25,000 deaths in Wuhan.

And several days earlier, wife told of reading that people keeping track of burials there also noting how they were much higher than the 3,000 or so reported by officials.

I stated my position on this several days ago also (without proof or statistics) that I did not believe at all the 3,000 number being reported by China.
Title: Re: More than 25,000 Corona deaths in Wuhan
Post by: Gator on April 02, 2020, 09:29:32 AM
I stated my position on this several days ago also (without proof or statistics) that I did not believe at all the 3,000 number being reported by China.

This echoes reports from other observers  claiming indirect data suggest the actual number of deaths was higher.   These observers examined number of urns sold, cancellations of individual telephone accounts, etc.     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 02, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
New York Infectious Physician - "I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic"

The antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine is being administered to an increasing number of infected patients.  No scientific study has been completed, yet the early unscientific data continue to show promise.

One New York physician is a recognized authority on infectious disease. He is administering the drug with azithromycin to 72  high risk cases involving  comorbidity   (e. g., obesity, over 70% were diabetic or prediabetic).  He started the trail use five days ago, and so far none of the patients had to be intubated.  He expressed much hope in widespread success, saying "I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic."

http://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-stephen-smith-on-effectiveness-of-hydroxychloroquine-with-coronavirus-symptoms-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-pandemic

Dr. Smith's "battlefied" use does not qualify as something the FDA would accept as a scientific trial, yet it gives hope.  Fingers crossed.   News media such as NY Times who had previously been dismissive are now reporting positive results:  "Malaria Drug Helps Virus Patients Improve, in Small Study."

 http://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-malaria.html

       
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 02, 2020, 10:17:30 AM
I had brought this matter up before. Some remarked the idiocy of 'using an antibiotic to treat a virus'. Yet, the use of Azithromycin in conjunction with hydroxychloroquine had been widely used in So. Korea, France and even in China as a treatment against this pandemic - and had been showing more than mere 'promising' results...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVbM87sT6fA&feature=emb_logo
Title: Re: More than 25,000 Corona deaths in Wuhan
Post by: BillyB on April 02, 2020, 10:24:21 AM
Heard just a brief snippet on national news last night that USA intelligence is saying that China actually had > 25,000 deaths in Wuhan.

And several days earlier, wife told of reading that people keeping track of burials there also noting how they were much higher than the 3,000 or so reported by officials.

I stated my position on this several days ago also (without proof or statistics) that I did not believe at all the 3,000 number being reported by China.

When Chinese were arresting people for talking about the mysterious pneumonia going around in December and January, that was a clue China lies and covers things up. We don't need an intelligence report to tell us that.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 02, 2020, 11:31:19 AM
Well, FWIW, all the numbers in all nations, whether it's progressive confirmed cases or # virus-related deaths are all erroneous anyway. They're mostly an attempt to measure what is otherwise unknown. Confirmed cases means nothing as it doesn't denote actual and absolute volume of infection.

For example, the US daily numbers is NOT increasing in the way it is being represented. +700, +1,200, +600, +50, etc...means nothing. The actual rate of infection is 'unknown'. Unless everyone gets tested, everyone, we have no idea what 'new cases of infection really is. Testing everyone is the only way we can determine the true number of the infected from the rest. Until then, 'new cases' means absolutely zero. Lockdowns/quarantine are designed as a result of the estimated average period of incubation. Even that is unknown.

As for the # of dead, that number is also meaningless. That's just one of the end the result of this epidemic. A consequence of what is really important for all of us to know - actual # of infection.

For example: How is it actually helping any of us to 'see' over 10,000 people had already died in Italy? How will it 'help' if China reported whatever death count they actually have in China?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 02, 2020, 12:08:10 PM
How will it 'help' if China reported whatever death count they actually have in China?



It would've helped a lot because people would've understood the seriousness of this virus back in January instead of dismissing it as no more dangerous than the flu.

January 22 China had a few hundred infections, 17 deaths and told WHO this virus was not transferable between humans and people who are infected ate infected meat at a meat market so WHO recommended travel to China was safe. If China reported 10,000 dead and a hundred thousand people infected, that would set off alarms and China wouldn't be able to convince the world over a hundred thousand people ate contaminated meat and the virus was not transferable between humans. WHO and other nations would've taken action faster and more lives would be saved. Can't save everybody but we could've taken action earlier.

Many nations are going to be humiliated by the lack of response. Many politicians and health experts will manipulate the numbers to show their citizens/voters they done a good job compared to other nations. The truth will never be known but what we are seeing reported today is bad enough.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 02, 2020, 01:04:36 PM
You think Billy? Double the count to 6,000+. Triple it to 9,000+...I highly doubt it would've changed the attitude of anyone anywhere.

Italy had 5-6,000 dead, yet they were still partying on the beaches of Florida, Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans, filling the subways of New York. Hell, they ran the LA marathon here...

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/la-marathon-underway-despite-coronavirus-concerns-winners-announced/2325043/

Now, had China, or even Italy, reported this unknown virus had infected say, 50, 60, 70 or even 80% of the population of Wuhan/Lombardy region (had they known), then MAYBE would have definitely get everyone's attention.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 02, 2020, 02:15:26 PM
You think Billy? Double the count to 6,000+. Triple it to 9,000+...I highly doubt it would've changed the attitude of anyone anywhere.


It is estimated that China's numbers should be multiplied by 40. I was important for China to warn governments of the danger which in turn can save lives. China could've told the truth with a massive amount of infections and deaths and told governments this disease is highly infectious and to begin mass production of PPE, ventilators, and build hospitals. By warning other governments, those governments could begin preparing what they need to save lives. Now all governments are behind in making test kits and other supplies.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 02, 2020, 02:49:07 PM
It is estimated that China's numbers should be multiplied by 40. I was important for China to warn governments of the danger which in turn can save lives. China could've told the truth with a massive amount of infections and deaths and told governments this disease is highly infectious and to begin mass production of PPE, ventilators, and build hospitals. By warning other governments, those governments could begin preparing what they need to save lives. Now all governments are behind in making test kits and other supplies.

Factor of 40, sure. That would definitely be alarming. There were reports the virus was already infecting people as early as November, even in Italy. GPs were reporting simultaneous severe cases of unexplained pneumonia but just didn't know then a novel virus was the cause.

All I'm saying however is, numbers reported today are mostly irrelevant/meaningless in the sense it doesn't give any of us any accurate accounting of ACTUAL infection count. US is already at 250K mark, but it's possible 1 million, or even 2, are already infected IN ADDITION.

Strange to me how fast Apple can manufacture billions of iPhone in less than a year's time, but we can't manufacture 400 million test kits in 4 months.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 02, 2020, 02:51:18 PM
It is estimated that China's numbers should be multiplied by 40. I was important for China to warn governments of the danger which in turn can save lives. China could've told the truth with a massive amount of infections and deaths and told governments this disease is highly infectious and to begin mass production of PPE, ventilators, and build hospitals. By warning other governments, those governments could begin preparing what they need to save lives. Now all governments are behind in making test kits and other supplies.

Excellent post.
I learned 30-40 years ago that Chinese could simply not be trusted and knew nothing about honor, keeping their word, etc.
They would negotiate for weeks, agree to terms, and then come in the next day and want to modify everything.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 02, 2020, 03:01:29 PM
THE GRIM REAPER

Projected daily deaths reaches its peak in the 3rd week of April at about 2,700 deaths per day. 

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=http://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CD7Y4URLNZEM7F6KENEHXS2R24.png&w=1440)


By June-July the total deaths are projected to be around 91,000 within a range of 40,000 - 170,000.    

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=http://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/M4S2BDR66ZAZFBDZAUILLXVUXI.png&w=1440)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 02, 2020, 03:37:00 PM
Very interesting.  Thanks for posting Phil.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 02, 2020, 04:57:18 PM
Strange to me how fast Apple can manufacture billions of iPhone in less than a year's time, but we can't manufacture 400 million test kits in 4 months.


Apple had years of development, testing and time to gear up plants to create their phones. The test kits for COVID-19 was developed and produced in less than a month. No test kit is 100% accurate so we have a ways to go before getting things perfected.

I learned 30-40 years ago that Chinese could simply not be trusted and knew nothing about honor, keeping their word, etc.


I remember reading a story of American pilots crash landing in China after bombing Japan. Some pilots died. The Chinese could've left the bodies to rot but they picked up the dead American pilots and passed them village to village and through a group effort the pilots passed through many Chinese hands and were delivered back to the Americans. The amazing thing is nothing was stolen. The gold wedding bands some of the pilots wore were still on their fingers. Through war and suffering, many Chinese could've been desperate and easily tempted to steal something from a dead man but they had enough honor and integrity to help deliver the dead bodies and their possessions back to their families. The current Chinese government is the problem, not the Chinese.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 02, 2020, 06:41:40 PM
There were reports the virus was already infecting people as early as November, even in Italy.


I remember reading people from other nations saying their flu season last year seemed exceptionally high and make a claim it could've been coronavirus. I seriously doubt any of it's true. If coronavirus hit any nation in November, doctors would've sounded the alarm like the Chinese doctors did and soon after hospitals would be overwhelmed. Whatever happened in Italy in November wasn't coronavirus.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 02, 2020, 06:51:44 PM
So here's the irony of how these reports actually affect anyone's attitudes, especially the people in charge. A lot of people are now glorifying NY's governor in how he is handling NY's COVID-19 condition. Heck, they're even talking about maybe having him represent the Democratic party's presidential nominee...

People are very short-sighted, or maybe I should say, gullible is likely more appropriate. This is Andrew Cuomo (http://www.axios.com/new-york-first-coronavirus-case-cuomo-risk-low-7eafa8d9-5148-4fbc-93ae-42affa09c313.html)

Quote from: Andrew Cuomo, March 1, 2020
There is no reason for undue anxiety—the general risk remains low in NY. We are diligently managing this situation &will provide info as it becomes available.

That was roughly 30 days after Trump banned incoming flights from China, and Italy was already getting devastated by the virus. Fast forward to present day New York, 30 days after that tweet, New York have almost as much active cases as Italy, and at times Gov. Cuomo is out there blaming Trump for not being 'prepared'.

It's ironic that people blame China, deservedly so, but why rely anything on someone when you already know that someone is unreliable to begin with?

January 27, 2020. 2 months since China began their battle with the virus, 3 days prior to Trump implementing the flight ban, here's CDC's statement (http://www.axios.com/americans-low-risk-of-coronavirus-cdc-687ce124-dbc9-4f67-803e-6f70d4249f77.html):

Quote from: CDC
The risk of U.S. residents becoming infected by the coronavirus that's devastating China remains low right now, public health officials said Monday, even as there's growing pressure to ramp up U.S. and international pandemic preparedness.

Death Rate? Nah...in hindsight, no one care and took it seriously enough. However, had China instead reported infection number, maybe just maybe, people would've taken a little more attention.

Quote from: BillyB
Apple had years of development, testing and time to gear up plants to create their phones. The test kits for COVID-19 was developed and produced in less than a month. No test kit is 100% accurate so we have a ways to go before getting things perfected.

There was a 20% failure rate. 20%. Which easily means it was accurate 8 out of 10 times. Today, they've only tested a little over a million. Getting close to identifying our 80% of our population on whether who is infected or not is so much better than where we are today.

JIMHO.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 02, 2020, 06:54:09 PM
I remember reading people from other nations saying their flu season last year seemed exceptionally high and make a claim it could've been coronavirus. I seriously doubt any of it's true. If coronavirus hit any nation in November, doctors would've sounded the alarm like the Chinese doctors did and soon after hospitals would be overwhelmed. Whatever happened in Italy in November wasn't coronavirus.

I posted an Italian doctor's admission he was receiving reports from GPs in Lombardy region that numerous unexplained severe cases of pneumonia was happening even as far back as November.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 02, 2020, 07:18:26 PM
I posted an Italian doctor's admission he was receiving reports from GPs in Lombardy region that numerous unexplained severe cases of pneumonia was happening even as far back as November.


The Italian government should dig up the dead bodies and test them for the virus. Chances are Italy was hit by something else because if Italy had the virus in November, they would've been on fire the same time or earlier than China.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 03, 2020, 08:55:49 AM

Captain of an aircraft carrier reassigned after he allowed his letters to his superiors to leak out. I'm pretty sure he won't ever attain the rank of admiral.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/exclusive-commander-of-coronavirus-stricken-aircraft-carrier-reassigned-not-thrown-out/ar-BB125M2S?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 03, 2020, 08:58:41 AM
I WAS going to post this, but waited for a 'Murican ..

The Captain did the right thing and will be treated in the same way as the Chinese 'whistle-blower' Doctor ... 

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 03, 2020, 09:48:52 AM
The Captain did the right thing and will be treated in the same way as the Chinese 'whistle-blower' Doctor ...


The Captain did the right thing about caring for his sailors but failed to the right thing when communicating through his superiors. The captain either didn't use secure channels to communicate with his superiors or let his letter to the Pentagon leak out. He was negligent and deserved to be relieved of his command of the ship. The ship needs a leader that cares about the sailors and knows how to behave properly.

Some people think this virus is no dangerous than the flu. Some people think this virus will kill everybody. I suspect the captain being one who greatly fears the virus. He's supposed to be the kind of person that will go to war and be in harms way, not run away.

Although we aren't in a war time situation and options are available, the captain criticizing the Pentagon for not acting fast enough was out of line. He basically questioned his superiors about how much they care about the sailors. Contrary to the Captain's belief, a ship with people who have an infectious disease just can't go immediately dock somewhere. Permission needs to be obtained by federal, state, and local governments which is not an easy task with all those entities involved. Trump had to ask Florida's governor to accept two civilian cruise ships. The Pentagon got that aircraft carrier a place to dock and unload faster than any civilian cruise ship companies could for their own ships infected with passengers. The captain should've realized his superiors hands were tied until a government gives them permission to dock. The captain is a smart guy but not smart enough.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on April 03, 2020, 10:31:09 AM
(http://mamasgeeky.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/coronavirus-meme-1.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 03, 2020, 10:59:02 AM
As long as we're on humour, someone sent me this the other day.  Some may not like it but we should be able to laugh at ourselves sometimes.

I remember chuckling at some Obama potshot memes as well, so here it is:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 03, 2020, 11:05:58 AM
The Captain did the right thing about caring for his sailors


End of

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 03, 2020, 11:06:26 AM
As long as we're on humour, someone sent me this the other day.  Some may not like it but we should be able to laugh at ourselves sometimes.

I remember chuckling at some Obama potshot memes as well, so here it is:

Okay BC....I'll give you a 2-minutes of chuckle on that one  :devil:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 03, 2020, 11:14:36 AM
 ;D
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 03, 2020, 11:30:01 AM

End of

Now go worry about the more than a dozen cruise ships that are sitting around Australia. The tiny nations those ships are registered in that they pay taxes to can't handle all the ships problems.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/no-port-in-a-storm-australia-tells-virus-stricken-cruise-ships-to-go-home/ar-BB126RO0?ocid=spartanntp


Italy suspects Russia planting spies among the doctors Russia sent over?

http://www.yahoo.com/news/italy-russia-spar-over-alleged-coronavirus-spies-165449595.html


Cuomo seizing ventilators and telling private hospitals to sue him if they disagree.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/york-governor-vows-seize-ventilators-163116733.html


Also in the article:

The head of the International Monetary Fund says the recession sparked by the coronavirus pandemic is “way worse” than the 2008 global recession.

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva described the situation as “a crisis like no other”.

“Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy coming to a standstill,” she said.

“We are now in recession, it is way worse than the global financial crisis and it is a crisis that requires all of us to come together.”

Ms Georgieva says 90 countries have already approached the institution for emergency financing.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 03, 2020, 11:41:24 AM

[Trump cartoon]


Good one.  I bet Trump would laugh at it, even if CNN's Jim Acosta delivered it. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 03, 2020, 12:09:45 PM
The Captain did the right thing about caring for his sailors but failed to the right thing when communicating through his superiors. The captain either didn't use secure channels to communicate with his superiors or let his letter to the Pentagon leak out. He was negligent and deserved to be relieved of his command of the ship. The ship needs a leader that cares about the sailors and knows how to behave properly.



http://www.thedailybeast.com/army-warned-in-early-february-that-coronavirus-could-kill-150000-americans?ref=author

Maybe Capt. Crozier got a similar briefing and saw no action.




Italy suspects Russia planting spies among the doctors Russia sent over?

http://www.yahoo.com/news/italy-russia-spar-over-alleged-coronavirus-spies-165449595.html


That's why all the pizzerias are closed, so no recipes can be stolen by spies.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 03, 2020, 12:32:25 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/army-warned-in-early-february-that-coronavirus-could-kill-150000-americans?ref=author

Maybe Capt. Crozier got a similar briefing and saw no action.


According to the link, the Army had a briefing in February. Trump took action in January. Army was a little behind. Trump already had medical experts advising him in January. The fact our CDC experts were denied entry by China didn't go unnoticed by Trump. Regardless how many articles you read by anti Trump media, you can't find an article by the media or statements by a Democrat about Trump not taking action against the virus fast enough in January. Why? Because they had more important things to do in January and February such as impeaching Trump. A virus wasn't even on their radar until Trump placed travel restrictions on China.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 03, 2020, 12:40:29 PM

Nations are returning hundreds of thousands, if not millions of PPE and test kits to China that fail to meet standards. This is a huge setback to nations that urgently need the supplies.

http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-government-rejects-allegations-face-192334486.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 03, 2020, 01:11:41 PM
Trump took action in January. Army was a little behind.

Was the Army really behind?

Quote
And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.

D.J. Trump, February 26 2020

http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/

Re-reading the transcript is quite depressing when one thinks what could have been done in all this time.  The president and NSC were all well aware.

First lockdowns in Italy 21 Feb.  All schools closed 4 March and the national lockdown began 9 March.

You keep bringing up Trump 'doing something' with incoming foreigners on flights as if this one act saved America...  Do you really feel that way today?


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 03, 2020, 01:49:07 PM
Was the Army really behind?

D.J. Trump, February 26 2020

http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/

Re-reading the transcript is quite depressing when one thinks what could have been done in all this time.  The president and NSC were all well aware.

First lockdowns in Italy 21 Feb.  All schools closed 4 March and the national lockdown began 9 March.

You keep bringing up Trump 'doing something' with incoming foreigners on flights as if this one act saved America...  Do you really feel that way today?


Trump did a good job in that speech. He prevented panic although he knew what was coming. Panic will kill more than the virus. You have bought into the media narrative that Trump lies or didn't know what he was talking about months ago pertaining to the virus. You seem to think Trump who is surrounded by experts didn't have any projections other than the Army projection to look at so he was clueless.

 If only a couple dozen people died in early February and Trump disclosed the Army briefing notes that 150,000 Americans can die causing people stampede over each other and shoot each other for the last little food and toilet paper on the shelves with thousands dying, you guys would be the first to say Trump was reckless and stupid although he told the truth so he must be impeached because he doesn't know how to manage a crisis. Trump can't win with you guys.

As to your question, yes I feel that way today. Trump banned foreign nationals that were in China from coming to America. Trump then left governors in charge of their states to monitor their own situations. Many governors have stay at home orders. One state failed to act soon enough and that was NY. They now account for over a third of America's infections and over a third of America's deaths. NY is doing as bad as European nations. What about your leaders? They do everything right?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 03, 2020, 01:58:00 PM
Billy,

You're inventing the lamest of excuses - again... that Trump had it all figured out from the beginning. But ok you're entitled to believe it.

Why would the US panic from the truth?  No panic here, no panic in Germany, where is there panic elsewhere?  Are we Americans panicky?

New York is our Milan and nothing more.  Deaths are not limited to Milan nor will they be limited to New York.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 03, 2020, 02:15:33 PM
Why would the US panic from the truth? 


You complain when you didn't get the truth but if Trump gave the truth adding to deaths and suffering, you'd complain again. Trump can't win.

No panic here, no panic in Germany, where is there panic elsewhere?  Are we Americans panicky?


Can you show me some European articles where you got the truth early February claiming hundreds of thousands of people in Europe will die? You didn't get the truth and that is why Europeans didn't panic. But leaders over there don't get blamed like Trump because you like their politics.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 03, 2020, 02:35:02 PM
This is an eye popping reality of the US unemployment condition today when compared to as far back as 50+ years ago, including the financial collapse of 2008/2009.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1365/jobless-claims-historical-chart

Notice how the current jobless claim shot straight up in stark comparison from previous decades.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 03, 2020, 08:50:37 PM
I WAS going to post this, but waited for a 'Murican ..

The Captain did the right thing and will be treated in the same way as the Chinese 'whistle-blower' Doctor ...
EXCELLENT point. 

Fathertime!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 03, 2020, 09:52:04 PM
You complain when you didn't get the truth but if Trump gave the truth adding to deaths and suffering, you'd complain again. Trump can't win.

Can you show me some European articles where you got the truth early February claiming hundreds of thousands of people in Europe will die? You didn't get the truth and that is why Europeans didn't panic. But leaders over there don't get blamed like Trump because you like their politics.

Challenge accepted:

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/924664


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population[/url]



*I* don't like BoJo's 'politics' on Brexit, nor do I think the herd mentality approach was wise and 'we've' certainly NOT been test, test, testing like the WHO had recommended, so the UK  had no idea of the extent of the issue and has clearly not ordered enough PPE kit / tests for NHS staff

Unlike the US, we didn't have leaders making STUPID pronouncements on twitter / speeches as to how this virus would be eradicated ..



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 03, 2020, 10:32:10 PM
Challenge accepted:

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/924664


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population[/url]


You failed the challenge. None of the articles say hundreds of thousands of UK citizens will die. One article said just over 1000 Chinese died. That's nothing for a country of 1.4 billion. There was once a UK government document leaked that said 500,000 UK citizens could die but that was leaked and not announced by your government because they don't want to create panic.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 03, 2020, 10:54:23 PM
You failed the challenge. None of the articles say hundreds of thousands of UK citizens will die. One article said just over 1000 Chinese died. That's nothing for a country of 1.4 billion. There was once a UK government document leaked that said 500,000 UK citizens could die but that was leaked and not announced by your government because they don't want to create panic.

Silly BillyB

IF I had used the 'leaked document' you'd have said I 'failed' because THAT was LATE February..

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-latest-deaths-uk-infection-flu-a9360271.html

IF said document had cased 'panic' .. ( on it' being leaked) why are so many people in the UK still more frustrated by weather being fine this weekend ..as  they can't go out ..despite all they know ( now ) about this virus ..?






 ..

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 04, 2020, 04:34:34 AM

D.J. Trump, February 26 2020...............

Re-reading the transcript is quite depressing when one thinks what could have been done in all this time.  The president and NSC were all well aware.


Why do you continue to inject your political partisanship?   

Trump's message was hope, not fear.  It was echoed by mainstream media.  Why don't you also criticize the concurrent remarks from New York's mayor and governor, who had the authority to issue and enforce a"stay at home" order earlier than they did.   

You have complimented Dr. Fauci. Why not mention his January 21 interview that coronavirus is not a major threat, nothing for US citizens to be worried about now. 

This crisis is still unfolding.  Time for all us to work together and do our part. 

The news from Italy is suggesting the apex of new cases has passed.  Splendid!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 04, 2020, 04:36:57 AM
Why are YOU so forgiving of his incompetence, Gator ?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 04, 2020, 04:44:21 AM
Why are YOU so forgiving of his incompetence, Gator ?

Rhetorical question from a political partisan, less interested in what we can do together
 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 04, 2020, 06:34:02 AM
Why do you continue to inject your political partisanship?   

Should I subscribe to ad ignorantiam logical fallacies instead of fact?

Quote
Trump's message was hope, not fear.  It was echoed by mainstream media.  Why don't you also criticize the concurrent remarks from New York's mayor and governor, who had the authority to issue and enforce a"stay at home" order earlier than they did.   

In order to express hope to overcome something, one has to define the hurdle.  Trump did not.  All states have one president who should lead using facts and not unfounded hope or arrogant gamble.  Are we not the United States?

Quote
You have complimented Dr. Fauci. Why not mention his January 21 interview that coronavirus is not a major threat, nothing for US citizens to be worried about now


Science learns and adapts, politics does not learn nor adapt well.  I can imagine Dr Fauci had to deliberate hard to go against the political grain of his boss.  By sticking to the facts he gained the respect that bridges politics.

Quote
This crisis is still unfolding.  Time for all us to work together and do our part.


Indeed, denial is over. We are having to do so now, but out of necessity and not vision.

The 'crisis' is now in its third iteration, the East, Europe and now the Americas.  Most all facts have been well known for some time now; what works, what not and what might. We're having to settle, unfortunately, for the latter

Quote
The news from Italy is suggesting the apex of new cases has passed.  Splendid!

Yes, we've started the second quarter, but still far from halftime.  The 'curve' is now flat but we don't yet know for how long.  I heard Dr Birx the other day discussing models and kinda leaning on the Italian model as one that could be applicable for the US.  I hope it is at this point, but believe such may be overly optimistic as containment measures were very different.  It wasn't that long ago that here at RWD the number of infections, deaths and doctors having to split ventilators, apply triage protocols in Italy was somehow abhorrent and held up as a critique of 'socialized' systems.  Now we are beginning to feel and do the exact same things and view the Italian experience as a best-case scenario for the US.

All this is not politics Gator, it based on fact.  If I got anything wrong factually, please do let me know.
Title: Belarus changing cause of death away from Corona
Post by: ML on April 04, 2020, 06:37:04 AM
Wife tells of friend in Ukraine whose sister works as MD in Belarus.

They have deaths from Corona . . . but are ordered to enter the cause of death as something else
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 04, 2020, 06:44:44 AM
ML,

Heart failure?  At the end that's what kills us all..  it simply stops beating.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 04, 2020, 08:40:21 AM
Science learns and adapts, politics does not learn nor adapt well.  I can imagine Dr Fauci had to deliberate hard to go against the political grain of his boss.  By sticking to the facts he gained the respect that bridges politics.
 

Early in the crisis, I showed Dr. Fauci  saying travel restrictions have little impact against the virus. He, an expert, agreed with WHO. Now we have nearly every nation in the world engaging in travel restrictions. Trump, who was massively occupied fighting off impeachment, had the sense to enact travel restrictions in January. Nobody, not even Dr. Fauci, seen something like this virus in their lifetime so even they didn't know the proper action to take.

China deceived. Most leaders of the World did nothing. WHO gave inaccurate info pertaining to the virus when educating nations and gave bad advice. The Democrats did nothing back then. California, Washington, NY, New Jersey, and Louisiana are the hardest hit States and they all have Democratic governors. All those people did much worse than Trump but you and a few others here criticize Trump harder. As a matter of fact, you don't criticize those to the left of Trump at all. Italy failed you. Your economy and whole way of life has changed because China failed you. Can you at least say one thing they did wrong without mentioning Trump? Or are you still trying to keep politics out of this?


why are so many people in the UK still more frustrated by weather being fine this weekend ..as  they can't go out ..despite all they know ( now ) about this virus ..?


You're like BC when you imply Europeans don't panic. Back in early March when UK had 116 cases and one death, you guys were clearing off the food market shelves. That's what the leaked document of 500,000 dead UK citizens encouraged. Of course your government wasn't painting such a dim picture because they didn't want you to panic.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51764225


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 04, 2020, 09:13:02 AM
BillyB,

You seem so butt-hurt by your 'leader's' volte face that you need to try to suggest 'panic', elsewhere.

Apart from some herd selfishness re toilet rolls, I am wishing some UK citizens 'got' that this is serious enough TO panic...and stay at home...

I am staying in a beautiful village...the house has a private garden and all is calm...no 'panic' is detected here......


I am not at the frontline, protecting only an elderly Ma ..

We are not experiencing the hardship of families with health workers and will not suffer from lack of funds.

As long as friends and family members remain remain healthy....No 'panic'..

I am VERY grateful to those who are risking their lives and cannot imagine their stress.






Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 04, 2020, 09:28:03 AM
You seem so butt-hurt by your 'leader's' volte face that you need to try to suggest 'panic', elsewhere.


There you go again talking only about Trump when leaders all around you done a worse job. You probably feel everybody to the left of Trump in Europe and in America had done a better job on handling the virus but you can't explain how.


I am staying in a beautiful village...the house has a private garden and all is calm...

We are not experiencing the hardship of families with health workers and will not suffer from lack of funds.


It's a good thing being separated from your wife for the last 2+ months isn't creating a hardship for you. Is that what you want us to believe? Hope it isn't true.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 04, 2020, 10:03:25 AM
BillyB defends the indefensible..

There you go again talking only about Trump when leaders all around you done a worse job. You probably feel everybody to the left of Trump in Europe and in America had done a better job on handling the virus but you can't explain how.

I can explain ... the videos of 'Trampu' before and now EXPLAIN ... 

More butt-hurt BillyB, getting all bent 'outta shape' and 'personal'

It's a good thing being separated from your wife for the last 2+ months isn't creating a hardship for you. Is that what you want us to believe? Hope it isn't true.

It's already been 2 months plus..  but then 'attentiveness' isn't your strong point .. but thank you for your 'concern' ..SC is watching a movie in Russian, while I watch in English ...  too many ad breaks on RU TV ..

Poka

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 04, 2020, 11:20:48 AM
Was the Army really behind?

D.J. Trump, February 26 2020

http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/

Re-reading the transcript is quite depressing when one thinks what could have been done in all this time.  The president and NSC were all well aware.

First lockdowns in Italy 21 Feb.  All schools closed 4 March and the national lockdown began 9 March.

You keep bringing up Trump 'doing something' with incoming foreigners on flights as if this one act saved America...  Do you really feel that way today?

Don't you ever get tired of fostering numbnuts' narratives, BC? Italy's president still hosted Chinese delegates as though everything is honky dory as Italians had been dying of the disease that even prompted them to ban flights from China a week earlier.

How'bout Andrew Cuomo declaring the threat of COVID-19 is very low in New York and there's no need for anguish on March 2nd?

Your adopted country is ready to embrace China despite its current dire situation BECAUSE of China simply because it believes China is their future's cash register. In a global economic sense, that's akin to pimping its citizens to the Chinese, no?

France is willing to sign up with Jack Ma's Huawei's 5G in return to getting 1 billion face masks.

Trump may not be perfect, but BOY!, as an American, I feel so much better having him here than the folks that lead your adopted home.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 04, 2020, 12:28:55 PM
Don't you ever get tired of fostering numbnuts' narratives, BC?

No, I get tired of folks that attempt to support their version of the truth with substantiation that cannot be proven, so I reply with factual information.

Believe I stated such albeit using Latin.  BillyB's favourite discourse technique when backed in a corner, described in a clear and understandable way below:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaGEjZDgFJo
 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 04, 2020, 02:52:22 PM
Should I subscribe to ad ignorantiam logical fallacies instead of fact?

1.  You are selective with the facts you choose to present.  For 12 years I have watched you do the same, backing 100% of everything Obama did and 0% of what Trump has done. 

2.  Dwelling on politics degrades this thread, which I had hoped would center around medical science, public health developments, and national policies.  If you want to dwell on Trump's shortcomings (and he has many to choose from), I suggest the Trump Doctrine thread or maybe  new threads such as "How COVID-19 will Affect the 2020 Election," or something about which I know little,  "Will the Pandemic Change Global Affairs."   

3.  There will be time to count the bodies and judge the role and response of the US government, the individual states,  the local communities, the medical community, and the public.  It will be more factual and comprehensive than your preliminary snipes, that frankly seem petty given the severity of the crises.  Maybe a critical analysis will show that the NYC metro area should have implemented a Wuhan lockdown.  Maybe it will show that ventilators prolonged the inevitable more than saving lives.  Maybe a significant percentage of those who died were nearing the end.   

Quote
Are we not the United States?

We are a Federalism.  While Democrats may want a huge, unitary state that decides everything, we are not there .......yet. 
 

Quote
I can imagine Dr Fauci had to deliberate hard to go against the political grain of his boss.  By sticking to the facts he gained the respect that bridges politics.
 

You don't know exactly what was happening behind the scenes, maybe we should await an after-action report.  Schiff is now writing a bill for such. 

You like Dr. Fauci because he elaborated upon a policy or two that differed from what you thought Trump said.  Dr. Fauci is a valuable member of the task force, yet I hope you are not suggesting he should direct everything the nation does to fight COVID-1.   
 

Quote
All this is not politics Gator, it based on fact.  If I got anything wrong factually, please do let me know.

I don't argue with your facts such as charts, or clearly stated policies of nations around the globe.  They are helpful. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 04, 2020, 03:18:27 PM

I heard Dr Birx the other day discussing models and kinda leaning on the Italian model as one that could be applicable for the US. 


Dr. Birx presented her charts a couple days ago.  One chart projected 91,000 cumulative deaths by June-July, within a range of 40,000 - 170,000.  I posted the charts in Reply 399 on April 2. 

Her charts were developed by IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) from the Univ. of Washington.  There is a building political controversy about the IHME being funded by the Gates Foundation and Birx sitting on the board of  another Gates funded organization.   

I don't know the data used in the IHME models.  One report says it is New York data.  I would assume that the modelers used representative data from all sources.

 
Quote
I hope it is at this point, but believe such may be overly optimistic as containment measures were very different.  It wasn't that long ago that here at RWD the number of infections, deaths and doctors having to split ventilators, apply triage protocols in Italy was somehow abhorrent and held up as a critique of 'socialized' systems.  Now we are beginning to feel and do the exact same things and view the Italian experience as a best-case scenario for the US.


I can't and won't quibble with this.  It is factual and useful, and does not reek with partisanship.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 04, 2020, 06:40:30 PM
1.  You are selective with the facts you choose to present.  For 12 years I have watched you do the same, backing 100% of everything Obama did and 0% of what Trump has done. 

I do recall criticizing Obama i.e. on his handling of Guantanamo and some other intel related matters. I have also agreed with what Trump did, albeit few and far between, likely minor point as they don't really pop out of memory.  I do recall giving him a fair shake in the beginning.

Quote
2.  Dwelling on politics degrades this thread, which I had hoped would center around medical science, public health developments, and national policies.  If you want to dwell on Trump's shortcomings (and he has many to choose from), I suggest the Trump Doctrine thread or maybe  new threads such as "How COVID-19 will Affect the 2020 Election," or something about which I know little,  "Will the Pandemic Change Global Affairs."   

For the vast majority of my posts in this thread with political content, I think you will find following the quotes that it was often someone else that brought up Trump first.  I do tend to object and respond to ad ignorantiam and other discourse fallacies such as 'repeat it till they believe it'.

Quote
3.  There will be time to count the bodies and judge the role and response of the US government, the individual states,  the local communities, the medical community, and the public.  It will be more factual and comprehensive than your preliminary snipes, that frankly seem petty given the severity of the crises.  Maybe a critical analysis will show that the NYC metro area should have implemented a Wuhan lockdown.  Maybe it will show that ventilators prolonged the inevitable more than saving lives.  Maybe a significant percentage of those who died were nearing the end.
   

Indeed there will.  Doctors don't usually intubate patients that are not likely to survive in the first place, even in normal times. It is not an 'always do before die' item on the checklist.

Quote
We are a Federalism.  While Democrats may want a huge, unitary state that decides everything, we are not there .......yet. 

Yes, but when it comes down to stay at home orders at the state level, all Republican eyes are on Trump to set the tone.
 
Quote
You don't know exactly what was happening behind the scenes, maybe we should await an after-action report.  Schiff is now writing a bill for such. 

Yes, it will all come out in the end. The great washing machine of life and politics.

Quote
You like Dr. Fauci because he elaborated upon a policy or two that differed from what you thought Trump said.  Dr. Fauci is a valuable member of the task force, yet I hope you are not suggesting he should direct everything the nation does to fight COVID-1.   

Alone, no.  But when delegations are made, the power and responsibility should also be provided.

Quote
I don't argue with your facts such as charts, or clearly stated policies of nations around the globe.  They are helpful.

I do look at the data before posting but it does not necessarily mean I try to find the data that fits my hypothesis.  The truth normally carries itself and it is very difficult to respond with ease on the basis of doubtful data.  That's not to say I can't err.  If someone counters with better vetted facts I'm willing to learn and change.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 04, 2020, 06:50:00 PM

I don't know the data used in the IHME models.  One report says it is New York data.  I would assume that the modelers used representative data from all sources.


Indeed, I misspoke.  I should have used the term 'Italian data' instead of 'model'.  It just startled me that she mentions Italy a lot in a comparative way.  Listening to her I think 'hmm... what's missing there'.  A sense that a bit of candour is lacking, or use of phrases that just don't say it all.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 04, 2020, 08:25:58 PM
  The truth normally carries itself and it is very difficult to respond with ease on the basis of doubtful data.


Do you trust Chinese data? Remember you put up a chart that shows stocks going up approximately the same rate during Obama's years compared to Trump's years? I told you the chart was manipulated. Humans create these charts and data and can influence them. Trying to be truthful without causing panic is what you're seeing with charts and data right now.

Here's an anti Trump NY Times article put out today. It says there's tension between Trump and his medical experts Dr. Fauci and Dr. Brix. Most people don't watch the daily briefings to understand that isn't true so they believe that crap. NY Times regularly uses charts and data to make Trump look bad. There's charts and data that makes Trump look good but they won't make the news.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/tensions-persist-between-trump-medical-141306900.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 05, 2020, 05:13:50 AM
I do recall criticizing Obama...

My memory universe apparently has some black holes. 

Regarding the other political details of your response, let me say "sequestering at home" is affecting my mood. 


Quote
Yes, but when it comes down to stay at home orders at the state level, all Republican eyes are on Trump to set the tone.

It seems Republicans more than Democrats are trying to balance saving lives with saving the economy.  Mutually exclusive goals?  That tradeoff will be debated, with clear evidence forthcoming of relative changes among the world's nations.    To save the nation Lincoln killed a huge number of young men.   
 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 05, 2020, 05:26:04 AM
Indeed, I misspoke.  I should have used the term 'Italian data' instead of 'model'.  It just startled me that she mentions Italy a lot in a comparative way.  Listening to her I think 'hmm... what's missing there'.  A sense that a bit of candour is lacking, or use of phrases that just don't say it all.

She chooses Italy because the NYC mayor and the NYS governor have an Italian heritage.    :D

If not that reason, she chooses Italy because 1) the epidemic spread started earlier there, and 2) the US mitigation and response follows more what Italy did vs. other early nations such as S Korea.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Maxx2 on April 05, 2020, 06:12:39 AM




If Sweden, which has not locked down its economy and society, emerges with a death toll from COVID-19 that is somewhere in the middle of the pack of European countries, there is going to be a lot of recrimination, particularly against those who have tried to silence any discussion about the true extent of the threat that COVID-19 actually poses

Cheers, say the Swedes



On 3 April 2020 08:36


In a word: Sweden. What happens if they pull this off? What happens if it turns out that we could have coped with COVID-19 without collapsing entire sectors of the economy putting millions on the dole, and imposing some of the most draconian restrictions on civil liberties in living memory?
Sweden has not closed the bars. Shopping malls are open. Schools and companies are open too. There are some restrictions such as on gatherings of over 500 people. But, in comparison with most European countries, life in Sweden is relatively normal.
Right now, Sweden's death rate from coronavirus is 33 per million of the population (http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). In France it is 83. In Italy it is 230. In Britain it is 43. In the Netherlands it is 78.
In the United States the number of deaths per million of the population is 18, but many argue that the outbreak in America took off later, and European levels of fatality from the virus are on their way. We shall see.
But, in any case, which levels of European fatality? The figures are all over the place. Partly this must be due to different ways in which the death toll is being counted.
In some countries, COVID-19 is being listed as the cause of death merely if it appears somewhere on the death certificate. In other words, you may have been days away from dying from terminal lung cancer, but if you had contracted COVID-19 in the meantime, your death will be listed in the overall COVID-19 fatality numbers. In other countries, it has to have been the single most obvious cause of death to make it into the same statistics.
Sweden appears to be in the latter category, which may be making their numbers look a little lower than in countries which list things differently. But probably not enough to radically change the comparisons.
[/size]
That will all be looked at closely when all this is over.
But if, when all such necessary adjustments have been made, Sweden emerges with a death toll from COVID-19 that is somewhere in the middle of the pack of European countries, there is going to be a lot of recrimination, particularly against those who have tried to silence any discussion about the extent of the threat that COVID-19 actually poses.
[/size][/font][/i][/font][/font]
[/size]
What is interesting though, is that precisely because it is Sweden, the usual suspects in our politics who benefit from disillusionment with the establishment may find it hard to profit from this. The Swedish government is led by Stefan Loeven, a Social Democrat.
[/size][/font][/i][/font][/font]
[/size]
Sweden is practically a role model for mainstream, left of centre politics. If you're a European populist, it's going to be more than a little incongruous to start singing the praises of Sweden, of all countries.
Similarly in America. Donald Trump has, albeit reluctantly, broadly followed the lockdown policies we see across most of Europe. Unless he very quickly does a 180 degree turn (and don't rule that out) how can he profit from his usual disdain for the way things are done by the establishment?
[/size][/font][/i][/font][/font]
[/size]
That said, if this particular "Swedish model" wins the day, someone is going to get it in the neck. The question is, who?
[/size][/font][/i][/font][/font]
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 05, 2020, 07:29:08 AM

If Sweden, which has not locked down its economy and society, emerges with a death toll from COVID-19 that is somewhere in the middle of the pack of European countries, there is going to be a lot of recrimination, particularly against those who have tried to silence any discussion about the true extent of the threat that COVID-19 actually poses


When comparing various national lockdown policies, more than differences indeath toll should be considered.  Differences in the rate and extent of economic recovery will be very important.

Supposedly with the Spanish flu, those cities with more extensive lockdown fared better immediately  in death rate and later in economic recovery.   I hear scientists mention this, yet I have not seen any analysis of data.   Keep in mind the lockdown in 1918 is  not comparable to 2020 lockdowns (e. g., most cities kept their schools and theaters open for purpose of educating the public about developments).   

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on April 05, 2020, 07:42:03 AM
Phun Phact
After China disclosed the outbreak of coronavirus to international health officials on New Year’s Eve, at least 430,000 people have arrived in the US  on direct flights from China, including 40,000 people in the two months after Trump’s travel ban
and all the travel for Chinese New Year, came before the ban, oopsie...
and not to mention Corona coming in from European hot-spots
before and after the ban...

trump’s actions were more PR related, to “protect him”
and not his base

who’da thought that denial was not likely to be a successful strategy for survival
it worked with Russiagate, Ukraingate, but looks like it’s gonna fail this time
BIGLY!!!
but at least, this will be the end, there won’t be any more “Trumpgates” after this one

a couple of years from now,
those of you here still alive, had better get used to seeing...
children playing with pieces of dead bodies that lay rotting in the streets

welcome to TrumpLand
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 05, 2020, 07:56:36 AM
TICKING TIME BOMBS?

Why are less developed nations reporting very low number of cases?   I assume it is because they can not afford the expense of extensive testing.  Fewer tests will produce fewer cases.  Consider these  three nations in the subcontinent.


                     Population       Number of Cases

Pakistan             200 million                1,865

Bangladesh         160 million                    51


India               1,300 million               1,251 


They have densely populated areas where social co-mingling is as problematic as in NYC, if not worse.  If these numbers are due to the lack of testing, I contend they are ticking time bombs with number of deaths more catastrophic than in NYC, giving rise to the doomsday envisioned by Krimster.   

Consider India.  India a few days ago implemented a stringent lockdown.  It inadvertently caused 45 million migrant workers to flee the large cities and  return to their villages, possibly accelerating the areal spread.  Such has implications for starvation.   

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 05, 2020, 08:19:53 AM
We now have loonies setting fire to 5G transmission sites   WHY ? .. Because they 'lower immunity'

Some folks are WAY too bored

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52172570 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52172570)

"We have received several reports of criminal damage to phone masts and abuse of telecoms engineers apparently inspired by crackpot conspiracy theories circulating online," a spokeswoman for the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport told the BBC."
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 05, 2020, 09:01:57 AM
TICKING TIME BOMBS?

I actually watched a short documentary report yesterday and tried to search it online but I can't find it. It's about Japan, and the very limited testing they've done, or *willing to do*. They are apparently are in no lockdown mode, and are actually being encouraged to go to work and continue living completely impervious to current pandemic. As their Ministry of Health's deputy director Takuma Kato once proclaimed..

Quote
In the first place, we believe there is not so much need for testing in Japan as in other countries. Japan is not experiencing an explosion of infection numbers with severe symptoms as seen in countries like Italy and South Korea.

Maybe the Japanese knows what they're doing. Who knows.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 05, 2020, 10:28:25 AM
Maybe the Japanese knows what they're doing. Who knows.


Here's a 2018 article which may explain why the virus can't get a foothold in Japan.

http://gogonihon.com/en/blog/why-do-japanese-people-wear-masks/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 05, 2020, 10:33:58 AM
GQB

Do you have family in Japan ? ... Thought not .. IF you did you'd appreciate we compare notes re wearing of masks, govt policy, etc.,

The number of known Coronavirus cases is doubling every five days....

The US embassy is asking US citizens to get out ..

"While we have confidence in Japan's health care system today, we believe a significant increase in Covid-19 cases makes it difficult to predict how the system will be functioning in the coming weeks. In the event of a spike in cases, US citizens with pre-existing medical conditions may not be able to receive the medical care they have grown accustomed to in Japan prior to the Covid-19 pandemic."

Japan appears to be EXACTLY on the same curve as Spain / Italy, historically.

The PM may have to change course. 

Here's a 2018 article which may explain why the virus can't get a foothold in Japan.

http://gogonihon.com/en/blog/why-do-japanese-people-wear-masks/


BillyB, 'on the pulse', as ever ((


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 05, 2020, 10:43:19 AM
Japan appears to be EXACTLY on the same curve as Spain / Italy, historically.


No they're not. You're making stuff up..... again. With everybody wearing masks in Japan, it's hard for the virus to infect others as easily as what happened in Spain and Italy.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 05, 2020, 10:47:05 AM
No they're not. You're making stuff up..... again. With everybody wearing masks in Japan, it's hard for the virus to infect others as easily as what happened in Spain and Italy.

http://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/asia/tokyo-coronavirus-japan-hnk-intl/index.html

Ooops

My son-in-law and CNN are both 'making it' up ..

BillyB's 'fake news' is ( so often)  fact ..

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 05, 2020, 10:59:18 AM
My son-in-law and CNN are both 'making it' up ..


If that is what they say, then they are making it up. The culture in Japan is totally different than in Italy and Spain. No nation can stop the spread of the virus but masks significantly slow down the spread so when they say cases in Japan are going to explode like they did in Italy and Spain, they are wrong.

Japan has done very little testing. They tell people who are sick to stay home and monitor what goes on in the hospital. There's not enough activity by the virus to shut down their economy or spend tons of money to test everybody.

When do you think nations should shut down the economy? When the first case shows up? Like Trump said, the cure can be worse than the problem. Can't shut it down too early but can't wait too long either like NY, Spain and Italy done.

Faeroe Islands have done the best job testing their population since 1 out of every 10 of their citizens have been tested. No other nation comes close to testing 10% of their population.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 05, 2020, 12:01:31 PM
There are of course social norms in each country that can speed up or slow down the infection rate along with demographic and population health differences.

Just an example, France, Italy and Spain are all close-contact and kissing countries.

Bottom line, such can slow but not stop this virus.  It seems to slowly reach a critical point and blooms from there rapidly.

Germany has been interesting to watch, a ton of testing and tracking kept numbers low, but now they are Nr 4 in the world also hitting the 100k mark.

The only proven way to fight the virus effectively is to simply stay home.  Even Norway and Sweden with their different 'ways' confirms this.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 05, 2020, 12:52:37 PM
Here's a 2018 article which may explain why the virus can't get a foothold in Japan.

http://gogonihon.com/en/blog/why-do-japanese-people-wear-masks/

It's the damnedest thing...but yes, Japanese were angered by Abe's response (http://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-anger-over-japanese-leaders-offer-two-cloth-masks-per-household/) to the pandemic by initiating a plan of giving 'two masks' per person in their battle against the virus. This after starting to see the spread of the virus...but before that... (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-testing-idUSKBN2150ZR) -

Quote
Over the past week, Japan has scrambled to avert an explosive surge in infections. While the current tally stands at around 2,300 cases, Japan — a country of over 127 million people — has tested only about 30,000 residents. Neighboring South Korea, with a population of about 51 million, carried out 394,000 tests.

Of that 30,000, only less than 20,000 were actually 'tested':

Quote
While Japanese doctors have carried out more than 32,000 tests, only 16,484 people have actually been tested, given that many are often tested multiple times.

According to this report (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-testing-idUSKBN2150ZR)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 05, 2020, 01:02:34 PM

Assuming Japan is telling the truth, their infections is low and their deaths are low. One can argue they aren't doing enough tests but Japan can argue, their hospitals aren't busy as proof they don't have a high amount of infections.

No country in the world except Faeroe Islands have tested 10% of their population. No test kit is 100% accurate and many of the test kits China is sending other countries is about 30% accurate.

With masks and social distancing, I"m sure Japan will keep their numbers low. When a second outbreak happens, nations hope to achieve what Japan did in their first outbreak.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on April 05, 2020, 01:07:17 PM
#

Ooops

My son-in-law and CNN are both 'making it' up ..

BillyB's 'fake news' is ( so often)  fact ..

My nephew lives in Japan, my sister in law is from Japan and
I have a niece and 2 other nephews who have spent every
summer in Japan for 15 years.

I do know that you don't call Japanese "Japs" which you have
done in the past because they consider it a racial slur. You have
no special knowledge or expertise of Japan or of Japanese people.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 05, 2020, 01:30:57 PM
GQB

Do you have family in Japan ? ... Thought not .. IF you did you'd appreciate we compare notes re wearing of masks, govt policy, etc.,

We didn't 'compare notes'. I simply showed you the error of your ways and shoved it up your ass, like I often do. The exchanges are still there and my posts not deleted (as of 4/5/2020 1:39 PST). Check it again if you'd like to make sure..
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: jone on April 05, 2020, 02:08:19 PM
Details are beginning to emerge - at great cost to those getting the information out - that China was indeed experimenting with the Corona Virus at the Woohan Institute of Virology.

According to one of the clandestine posts, the Chinese are well aware of who their Typhoid Mary case is and how he caught the disease and spread it through the 'live food' markets.

If, indeed, China is covering this up (who makes up figures for cell phone termination and numbers of urns unless they are somewhat based in reality?) there is going to be hell to pay.   

If this virus originated and escaped from that place, every nation in the country will condemn China.   People will be furious.   To the point of choosing not to buy Chinese products.   Last month China reported a 17% drop in their economy (GDP).    If the people of the world find out that China has been covering this up (which they have) then a 50% reduction is not too hard to fathom.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 05, 2020, 02:46:10 PM
Jon e, show us some websites that you obtained this info from.

Sounds like blockbuster news to me.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: jone on April 05, 2020, 02:57:59 PM
I've seen the links and the reference points.   They were up for a day, then taken down.   In addition, most of the medical staff who worked on the Corona Virus as the Woohan central hospital are now missing.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 05, 2020, 03:54:07 PM
I've seen the links and the reference points.   They were up for a day, then taken down.   In addition, most of the medical staff who worked on the Corona Virus as the Woohan central hospital are now missing.

Were the postings in English or Chinese ?
What are 'reference points' ?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 05, 2020, 04:13:48 PM
Billy-

Congrats over there up in WA! Trump just informed that your governor decided to send back, send back!! 400 ventilators! Great news! That's awesome considering WA was the epicenter on the virus in the beginning.

1.670 million tested in the US! Obviously the reason why the high count of confirmed cases. Not bad if you consider the CDC fiasco in the beginning.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 05, 2020, 05:54:30 PM
The Florida Dept of Health COVID-19 Dashboard, now report number of cases by postal zip code. 

If more than 5 cases, the exact number of cases is listed.  Zero cases is also shown.  If 1-5, the number of cases is reported as 1- 5 to protect individual rights. 
 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 05, 2020, 07:19:15 PM
Billy-

Congrats over there up in WA! Trump just informed that your governor decided to send back, send back!! 400 ventilators! Great news! That's awesome considering WA was the epicenter on the virus in the beginning.

1.670 million tested in the US! Obviously the reason why the high count of confirmed cases. Not bad if you consider the CDC fiasco in the beginning.

That is good news. I don't like my governor's politics but it's great he's not sitting on them ventilators if we're not needing them and letting go to other parts of America that could use them. Teamwork and cooperation is what we need to save lives and combat the virus, not politics.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: jone on April 05, 2020, 08:31:40 PM
Were the postings in English or Chinese ?
What are 'reference points' ?

There were two independent and separate statements given.   They had full detail, including the name of patient zero.  I went back through my browsing history and looked up the articles, which came from Chinese National periodicals (Taiwan?) and they were subsequently removed.

My guess is that they will surface again once the background work is completed.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 05, 2020, 08:46:40 PM
When BillyB got busted .. AGAIN ..

If that is what they say, then they are making it up. The culture in Japan is totally different than in Italy and Spain. No nation can stop the spread of the virus but masks significantly slow down the spread so when they say cases in Japan are going to explode like they did in Italy and Spain, they are wrong.

Japan has done very little testing. They tell people who are sick to stay home and monitor what goes on in the hospital. There's not enough activity by the virus to shut down their economy or spend tons of money to test everybody.

When do you think nations should shut down the economy? When the first case shows up? Like Trump said, the cure can be worse than the problem. Can't shut it down too early but can't wait too long either like NY, Spain and Italy done.


http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/



http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-japan-state-of-emergency-12612284 (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-japan-state-of-emergency-12612284)

Japan PM Shinzo Abe could declare state of emergency as early as Tuesday amid COVID-19 outbreak

Abe will likely announce his plans to declare the emergency on Monday, the paper said, while Kyodo news agency said new measures would likely come into force on Wednesday.


Many folk in Japan wore masks .. but surgical ones - which are practically USELESS - and the govt had offered its citizens two masks per head of population ..

Yes, saving lives is more important than the economy, you IDIOT.. the economy can recover..

.

[The ]Faeroe Islands have done the best job testing their population since 1 out of every 10 of their citizens have been tested. No other nation comes close to testing 10% of their population.

That's your 'example' .. A tiny island group ? ..Where folks are easier to trace.. ?








Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 05, 2020, 08:51:48 PM
Details are beginning to emerge - at great cost to those getting the information out - that China was indeed experimenting with the Corona Virus at the Woohan Institute of Virology.

According to one of the clandestine posts, the Chinese are well aware of who their Typhoid Mary case is and how he caught the disease and spread it through the 'live food' markets.

If, indeed, China is covering this up (who makes up figures for cell phone termination and numbers of urns unless they are somewhat based in reality?) there is going to be hell to pay.   

If this virus originated and escaped from that place, every nation in the country will condemn China.   People will be furious.   To the point of choosing not to buy Chinese products.   Last month China reported a 17% drop in their economy (GDP).    If the people of the world find out that China has been covering this up (which they have) then a 50% reduction is not too hard to fathom.
At this point it speculation but you have your mind made up clearly.  I'm sure it is just a coincidence that you are trying to drum up support to destroy china's rising economy, same as you were before the virus.  If you can't compete with them, destroy them by any means necessary, that is how it is done here in the USA!
Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 05, 2020, 09:25:35 PM
You have no special knowledge or expertise of Japan or of Japanese people.

'Sorry', Bill.. but when it comes to BillyB's BOLLOX - I do ..


Do you agree with him, that the Japanese have the situation 'under control' and aren't just about to introduce a emergency measures as new cases are increasing exponentially ?

When you refer to England and mean Britain - it's an insult .. does it stop you ... ?





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 05, 2020, 09:49:35 PM
Many folk in Japan wore masks ..


Japan is right next to China and they haven't declared a state of emergency yet. Even if they do, they are 45 days behind Western nations which means they have a very slow spread compared to others. Figure it out.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 05, 2020, 09:53:59 PM
The Florida Dept of Health COVID-19 Dashboard, now report number of cases by postal zip code. 

If more than 5 cases, the exact number of cases is listed.  Zero cases is also shown.  If 1-5, the number of cases is reported as 1- 5 to protect individual rights.

As of 4/5 - California:

Total tested to date: 131,533
Positive: 13,438 (LA = 5,275)
Negative: 103,095
Pending:15,000

Currently hospitalized: 2,398
In ICU: 1,040
On ventilator: None
Death: 319

If the tested count represent the first responders + symptomatic patients, this means California is not doing too bad, with approximately 18% of the positive getting hospitalized. Of that, 43% in ICU with no one on ventilators.

Death rate, tested persons, 0.24+/-%; from confirmed cases,  2.4%
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 05, 2020, 10:37:14 PM
Japan is right next to China and they haven't declared a state of emergency yet. Even if they do, they are 45 days behind Western nations which means they have a very slow spread compared to others. Figure it out.

BillyB,

face it - you were WRONG .. 

I figure you'll try to spin out of any stupid comment you make ..

YOU told us Japan has this 'under control' .. 

Korea is as close to China as Japan ..





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 06, 2020, 10:41:41 AM
TICKING TIME BOMBS?

Why are less developed nations reporting very low number of cases?   I assume it is because they can not afford the expense of extensive testing.  Fewer tests will produce fewer cases.  Consider these  three nations in the subcontinent.


                     Population       Number of Cases

Pakistan             200 million                1,865

Bangladesh         160 million                    51


India               1,300 million               1,251 


They have densely populated areas where social co-mingling is as problematic as in NYC, if not worse.  If these numbers are due to the lack of testing, I contend they are ticking time bombs with number of deaths more catastrophic than in NYC, giving rise to the doomsday envisioned by Krimster.   

Consider India.  India a few days ago implemented a stringent lockdown.  It inadvertently caused 45 million migrant workers to flee the large cities and  return to their villages, possibly accelerating the areal spread.  Such has implications for starvation.   

Apparently, studies are underway that, at this time, seem to suggest why places like India (maybe even Russia to some extent), seem impervious to massive infection.

BCG Vaccine (http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tb-vaccine-appears-to-offer-protection-against-covid-19/story-lHholAkFWyOW5HSWI3A4zM.html)

Quote
The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine to prevent tuberculosis, which has been given to Indian children since 1949, and which around 97% of the 26 million Indian children born every year received last year, appears to offer protection against coronavirus disease (Covid-19), according to US researchers who analysed the wide variation in the intensity of the disease in different countries. It also helps lower cases of Covid-19 in a country, the researchers found.


Australia (http://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/australia-bcg-vaccine-trial-covid-19/) seemed to have spearheaded the clinical trials...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 06, 2020, 10:53:56 AM
GQ,

Was watching this on German news the other day.  Max Plank Institute who developed the vaccine also started trials at hospitals in several hospitals in Germany, and it's being replicated in several countries.

The huge advantage is that some of the trials, i.e. safety trials that test only whether or not the vaccine causes harm, can be skipped as they have already been done.  This saves a few months time, maybe more.

I also hope it works.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 06, 2020, 11:05:18 AM
GQ,

Was watching this on German news the other day.  Max Plank Institute who developed the vaccine also started trials at hospitals in several hospitals in Germany, and it's being replicated in several countries.

The huge advantage is that some of the trials, i.e. safety trials that test only whether or not the vaccine causes harm, can be skipped as they have already been done.  This saves a few months time, maybe more.

I also hope it works.

I hope so, too BC! Could be a gamechanger ;)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 06, 2020, 11:23:36 AM
There are many candidates that we hope will work.  If you want to call them all possible game-changers that's fine  :devil:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: jone on April 06, 2020, 11:32:19 AM
On another note: 

People always say that no one tells about stock purchases until after the event.   I went in heavy today on Chemical Financial.  My take is that the financial sector was hit hard without sustaining the direct material losses the airlines did and the vacation/leisure stocks did.  If CHFC demonstrates what I think it will over the next week, I'll look at some other offerings of a similar nature.

Were I a betting man (and I am sometimes) I would begin to look at energy stocks.  Okay.  That is my current strategy.   Take it apart.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 06, 2020, 12:16:56 PM
I went in heavy today on Chemical Financial. ... Take it apart.

Too much good news to sit on the sidelines.  Boris could spook the market.   

Chemical is good choice considering the price of feedstock will be low even after COVID-19 is defeated.  I bought Dow Chemical.  Us old folks like dividends and their cash can can covere the distributions.

Had bought NVDA near the bottom and sold too early.   However, can't go broke takin' It's screaming up.  Millenials!   

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 06, 2020, 12:36:51 PM
That is good news. I don't like my governor's politics but it's great he's not sitting on them ventilators if we're not needing them and letting go to other parts of America that could use them. Teamwork and cooperation is what we need to save lives and combat the virus, not politics.

Just like that, Billy...our governor sent back 500 ventilators to the national stockpile.

I'm not quite certain why none of the states/cities are reporting ventilator usages but seem to always be primal in their needs during these press conferences along with hospital beds and PPEs...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 07, 2020, 05:39:12 AM
MORE NEWS ABOUT HCQ FROM THE HEALTHCARE COMMUNITY

Rheumatologists have a long history of prescribing HCQ to lupus patients. They state the drug is safe at the dosages they use.

Let's take this another step. 300,000 people in the US have lupus and likely take HCQ on a regular basis.   Have they been infected by COVID-19?   

A "data cruncher"  analyzed the insurance data for 14,000 lupus patients and discovered not one has COVID-19.   

Yes, very preliminary, and certainly ANECDOTAL.  Yet it calls for a more comprehensive analysis of national insurance records.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 07, 2020, 04:32:15 PM
So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?

Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 07, 2020, 07:06:21 PM
GOOD NEWS

The actual number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are well below the predictions made by IHME model used by the White House Task Force.  You may recall the model projected 91,000 cumulative deaths by June-July, within a range of 40,000 - 170,000 deaths.  And the doctors on the Task Force sadvised we should prepare for them. 

Because the actual data came in lower, the  scientists adjusted the model lower.  That was a few days ago.  Guess what!  Today's numbers are below the revised predictions.   

There are a variety of explanations offered by observers.  One theory is the American public implemented the social distancing guidelines better than expected.  That would explain lower cases, but IMO not lower hospitalizations, which lag new cases.  Nor would it explain lower deaths, which lag hospitalizations.   

The adjustments downward are not huge, yet it seems the crisis about exceeding hospital capacity will never happen.

Tomorrow will bring new numbers, and the experts will be out in force.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 07, 2020, 07:14:40 PM
We are not the only nation experiencing such downward trends in the spread of the disease.  Reports are that Denmark, which is said to have resembled the pace of the US outbreak, plan to open their schools next week.  Austria is planning a similar openings, to include opening its restaurants in mid-May. 

It is possible COVID-19 outbreaks could rebound as supposedly is now happening in Singapore.  However, the doomsayers need to relax, and our policy makers should be developing a plan on getting America back to work.    I contend the economic recovery will be more challenging than the disease. 

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 07, 2020, 07:36:33 PM
MORE NEWS ABOUT HCQ FROM THE HEALTHCARE COMMUNITY

Rheumatologists have a long history of prescribing HCQ to lupus patients. They state the drug is safe at the dosages they use.

Let's take this another step. 300,000 people in the US have lupus and likely take HCQ on a regular basis.   Have they been infected by COVID-19?   

A "data cruncher"  analyzed the insurance data for 14,000 lupus patients and discovered not one has COVID-19.   

Yes, very preliminary, and certainly ANECDOTAL.  Yet it calls for a more comprehensive analysis of national insurance records.   

Is giving HCQ to healthy people for life as a cure a good thing? Lots of experts aren't sold yet on HCQ as being effective against the virus. Doctors aren't saying its a cure but some doctors say it's a possible treatment to shorten the battle a person has with the virus.

Why a treatment that may work? Does it actually work against the virus? Probably not. People with lupus have an immune system that attacks healthy tissue and HCQ prevents that. One problem with  those who have a serious case of COVID-19 is that their immune system can go into overdrive to the point they create so many antibodies that it attacks healthy tissue kinda like what happens to those with lupus. The coronavirus and a person's immune system can both team up and kill living tissue although they are fighting against each other. While HCQ is probably ineffective against the virus, it's certainly effective in preventing a person's immune system from destroying healthy tissue and thus speed up recovery as doctors have noticed.

I know many people here don't like the Cuomo brothers but there is important info in the videos below about how to beat COVID-19. Most people battling COVID-19 will do it within their homes, not a hospital, so they won't have access to doctors and good advice. In the first video Chris talks about strange dreams and shares humor with his brother. Second video he got a call from a doctor giving tips on how to beat the virus and laying down still can help the virus to win. Good stuff in the videos you need to know you ever get COVID-19.

http://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/chris-cuomo-coronavirus-advice-121155247.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 07, 2020, 07:38:48 PM

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?


Flattening the economy unless we get back to work.

We have lived with widespread deadly diseases before in the history of America while fighting Redcoats, Indians, etc..   COVID-19 is something we will be able to manage with the much improved testing that surely will come.    I predict we we will have better therapeutics, maybe even better than HCQ.  ;)  Likely a prophylactic.    I don't worry.         
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: calmissile on April 07, 2020, 08:41:25 PM
So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?

Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?

A very good, thought provoking question.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 07, 2020, 08:42:02 PM
They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?


It's best to talk about one problem at a time. It's best not to talk about a problem that has yet to arrive. But I'm sure they're working on the next step and so on.

Jan 20 America recorded it's first Coronavirus case and the guy didn't eat the meat at the Chinese meat market. Jan 20 is also the day China admits to the world human to human transmission is possible. They knew they couldn't keep it secret any longer since other nations would soon confirm what they previously wouldn't.

Two months after America's first case, much of America and the world's economies come to a halt and hospitals are overwhelmed. Two and a half months after our first case, America records 400,000 infections but experts predict it's easily over half a million infections since many haven't taken the test.

After the curve is flattened, infections will increase again but slowly because humans have altered our behavior. We will kiss less, we will not go to functions that have mass crowds, we will practice social distancing everywhere we go but infections will still increase over time to the point we need to shut it down again.

  I predict we we will have better therapeutics, maybe even better than HCQ.   
     

I hope so but as powerful as Google is, Google has not shown me a single vaccine or treatment that has been found for any coronavirus man has encountered in the past.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 07, 2020, 08:45:54 PM
So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?

Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?

Whatever happens, happens.  Less activity perhaps, the introverts will thrive in the new more dangerous world.   When  the businesses and activities I like start to open up, I'm going out and doing what I want.  I'll probably be more cautious but if it kills me, it would be ok.  I'm the oldest and while healthy, I'm still the most health challenged in my immediate family, the way it should be.   Others are free to isolate with their toilet paper, vitamins, and slippers all day.  I won't begrudge them at all, but it won't be me.

Fathertime!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 08, 2020, 12:38:45 AM
GOOD NEWS

As posted before, I would be very careful with building expectations at this point.  A new spike can be just around the corner.  Takes more than a couple days to define a trend.. a lot more.

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24217.msg531641#msg531641



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 08, 2020, 01:12:40 AM
So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?

Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?

GQ,

The only logical way forward so far that I see is to start testing on a national scale to identify and isolate remaining active cases along with antibody testing to find those that can work more freely.  Folks can adjust their measures depending on how they test.  Borders must become very stringent.  In the case of the US, states like California that first implemented containment and lockdown measures will have to protect their state lines to prevent reinfection just as a country would.  Otherwise, we'll be chasing our tail forever.  Have to remember until we know otherwise the majority of the population is still susceptible to this bug.

IMHO testing on a massive scale is warranted before restrictions are relaxed too far.

 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 08, 2020, 04:12:36 AM
As posted before, I would be very careful with building expectations at this point.  A new spike can be just around the corner.  Takes more than a couple days to define a trend.. a lot more.


True, but "good news" is a step in the right direction.   The data each day show progress, and each day of progress while still distancing is one day closer to getting out of this situation.   

For sure its not yet what we need to get back to work.  Nevertheless, we should be making transitional plans.     

     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 08, 2020, 04:25:28 AM

The only logical way forward so far that I see is to start testing on a national scale to identify and isolate remaining active cases along with antibody testing to find those that can work more freely.  Folks can adjust their measures depending on how they test.
 

You and I agree.  That was part of  my response to GQ. 


Quote
Borders must become very stringent.  In the case of the US, states like California that first implemented containment and lockdown measures will have to protect their state lines to prevent reinfection just as a country would. 

Thorny issue for Americans and our sense of individual freedoms.   I recall you not long ago  opposing the restrictions about stopping New Yorkers.   Maybe travelers should have their body temperature measured at the border?   Or allowed to enter only if having a recent negative test.


Quote
Otherwise, we'll be chasing our tail forever.  Have to remember until we know otherwise the majority of the population is still susceptible to this bug.

Need a transitional plan rather than await for an "all clear" announcement.  Waiting until we have a vaccine or proven prophylactic  is too long.   

Quote
IMHO testing on a massive scale is warranted before restrictions are relaxed too far.

Restrictions can be eased in step with expanded testing.  How?  Need people much smarter than me to make such plans. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 08, 2020, 04:54:47 AM
Thorny issue for Americans and our sense of individual freedoms.   I recall you not long ago  opposing the restrictions about stopping New Yorkers.   Maybe travelers should have their body temperature measured at the border?   Or allowed to enter only if having a recent negative test.

IIRC I felt it would not be feasible as it was already too late for such.  Think was the first post with the radar picture of aeroplanes flying around.  No sense to block roads in and out when passenger planes are flying overhead.  Measuring temperature won't be effective for those that are infected but have no symptoms.


Quote
Need a transitional plan rather than await for an "all clear" announcement.  Waiting until we have a vaccine or proven prophylactic  is too long.


Indeed.  Testing and releasing those with antibodies is the only viable method I see.  Some, likely those that test negative but without antibodies may have to be restricted at a higher level for a while to come or segregated somehow until a good vaccine is available. Those that are infected will have to be isolated along with tracking down any contacts.  Maybe injecting antibodies from blood serum into non-infected folks will work as a stopgap.

Quote
Restrictions can be eased in step with expanded testing.  How?  Need people much smarter than me to make such plans.

Bottom line, your front door is the only thing you can control as an individual.  The rest may seem complicated but will certainly take some months time.  Until I am tested and know my status I'll remain in isolation, taking pretty much the same precautions as now along with my family.

The big question is do we have an exit strategy... here it is being actively worked on and should hear something official in the next week or so, If it's not ready the lockdown may be loosened a wee bit but not much and extended until formalized and ready.

I don't know if any exit strategy will be acceptable in the WH as all will take time and much effort to do it right.  'Cut 'em loose' is dangerous IMHO as evidenced by new flareups in other countries.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 08, 2020, 06:37:59 AM
The only logical way forward so far that I see is to start testing on a national scale to identify and isolate remaining active cases along with antibody testing to find those that can work more freely.

IMHO testing on a massive scale is warranted before restrictions are relaxed too far.


Faeroe Islands is the only nation on earth that tested 10% of their population. No other nation on earth come close. Italy tested just over 1% of their population and America is half of that. It's easy to find the first 1% of the population to test. It's near impossible to find the last 1% of the population. They could be homeless, don't want to participate, and/or in the middle of nowhere. Achieving 100% testing of 7.8 billion people has worst odds than the toughest lottery. All it takes is one person to slip through the cracks and within months, we got another pandemic.

Also....no test is 100% accurate. China has created the most tests kits and shipped them all over the world. Spain reported the test kits having a 30% accuracy. Czech Republic reported the test kits having a 20% accuracy. Multiply the difficulty of being able to test 100% of the people times the difficulty of making a 100% accurate test kit and you will conclude it's easier to find a vaccine for a coronavirus which currently is something mankind has never achieved. With the latest medical advances and the largest effort ever to hunt for a vaccine, maybe we will be able to finally find a vaccine for a coronavirus which just happens to be the worst coronavirus that we've ever experienced.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 08, 2020, 07:11:39 AM
I don't understand this idea of trying to test everyone.

All a test indicates (ignoring false negatives and false positives) is the situation at that point in time.

The next day, a person who tested negatively could then acquire the virus.

This also applies to all those who have already been tested.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 08, 2020, 07:14:25 AM
According to ABC News, and reported here by good old CNN, the US knew there was a severe virus in November.  It was already being discussed in the starkest of terms.  How does this not put to rest that the US was unguarded against a misinformation campaign in China? 


ABC News: US intelligence warned of China's spreading contagion in November

US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.
Chaos rocks Trump White House on virus&#39; most tragic day
Chaos rocks Trump White House on virus' most tragic day
The source told ABC News that the intelligence report was then briefed "multiple times" .....


http://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/us-intelligence-report-china-coronavirus/index.html    (http://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/us-intelligence-report-china-coronavirus/index.html)
Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 08, 2020, 07:44:59 AM
I don't understand this idea of trying to test everyone.

All a test indicates (ignoring false negatives and false positives) is the situation at that point in time.

The next day, a person who tested negatively could then acquire the virus.

This also applies to all those who have already been tested.

That is true ML, but the most interesting test at the moment is antibody testing to find folks that have had the bug but did not have symptoms or recovered with mild cases.

The test is being tested here in several regions to find out how accurate they are.  A major problem at the moment is getting enough of the reagents needed as worldwide demand is high.

If I am positive I'll stay home under quarantine and need to be retested after the illness passes - then I'll likely be immune and can go to work not having to worry about infecting others or myself.  If I test and have antibodies I should also be able to move around freely without infecting others or myself.  If I test negative then I'd better stay home and take the same precautions I do now in lockdown until a vaccine is available.

Those that have antibodies can help others that are sick by giving blood plasma, *maybe* even those that are healthy (big question mark here).
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 08, 2020, 08:52:47 AM
IIRC I felt it would not be feasible as it was already too late for such.  Think was the first post with the radar picture of aeroplanes flying around. 

This should interest you.  ABC News analyzed 20 million international flight records for the critical 4-month period of December - March.

Flights from China:  "3,200 flights flew from China to the U.S., including more than 1,000 flights ....to Los Angeles and nearly 500 each landed in San Francisco and New York  ....those flights translated to more than 761,000 Chinese nationals entering the U.S.... Among the flights were 50 direct from Wuhan.... Twenty-seven of those flights went to San Francisco and 23 to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. The last flights from Wuhan came in early February...." because of the Trump travel ban.

Flights from Italy and Spain:  "More than 1,400 direct flights from Italy landed in U.S. cities from December to March, including more than 500 in February and March....Another 2,255 flights from Spain landed in U.S. cities....Nearly 100 of the Italy-to-Miami flights happened over six weeks in February and early March before the U.S. imposed restrictions. .....Also in March, more than 400 flights left Spain for 12 American cities. Close to half of those flights landed at two New York City region airports: JFK and Newark Liberty. ...The flights directly from China, Italy and Spain reached at least 15 states.

Also, "Of the Customs and Border Protection personnel that tested positive, 52, were from New York ports of entry, 20 were from Miami and Fort Lauderdale airports and facilities, 10 from Los Angeles work sites and 10 from New Jersey."

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/disaster-motion-flights-coronavirus-ravaged-countries-landed-us/story?id=70025470
 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 08, 2020, 08:56:04 AM
I don't understand this idea of trying to test everyone.

All a test indicates (ignoring false negatives and false positives) is the situation at that point in time.

The next day, a person who tested negatively could then acquire the virus.

This also applies to all those who have already been tested.

Very valid point.

But like BC had been saying, national testing at least for the next 18-24 months or until a vaccine is found, IMO, would give society at large a 'process of self-elimination' (or better yet, self-isolation, extraction, etc…)

There should be as much effort to make test kits on a much higher scale of availability and affordability, like per se - pregnancy test kits, breathalyzer, etc..  to the point anyone can periodically 'test' themselves - everyday if need be.

A daily personal testing would immensely help 'curb' infection to society at large. You test negative, go about your daily routine. You test positive, stay home and quarantine.

*([Even better, if these test kits are somehow connected to the internet that would automatically send information at large to mission district central headquarters for monitoring....so if the infected attempts to leave and go outside, a drone can immediately be dispatched and fire a disintegrating ray upon the person and eliminate the danger to society.)*

Anyway, the point is, people have a natural herding mentality. It's just not in our nature to be 'caged'. Sooner than later the masses will defy any stay-at-home mandate. So any slight show of the curve falling down our govt. will lift the lockdown ordinance and we will all be exposed to the same infection rate we were in initially.

Lather, rinse, repeat...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 08, 2020, 09:10:03 AM

I don't know if any exit strategy will be acceptable in the WH as all will take time and much effort to do it right.  'Cut 'em loose' is dangerous IMHO as evidenced by new flareups in other countries.

I believe it will be a decision made  jointly with each of the 50 Governors and implemented in stages starting first with least infected  states.  And within each state, it may be sequenced.  For example, first phase could be to open schools, construction projects and public parks.   Just an example; I am not smart enough to know what is best.   

The decision will not be "perfect,";) as I anticipate it will be implemented before the full capacity of needed testing is developed.  It will be the most important decision in his four years as President. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 08, 2020, 09:17:16 AM
This should interest you.  ABC News analyzed 20 million international flight records for the critical 4-month period of December - March.

Flights from China:  "3,200 flights flew from China to the U.S., including more than 1,000 flights ....to Los Angeles and nearly 500 each landed in San Francisco and New York  ....those flights translated to more than 761,000 Chinese nationals entering the U.S.... Among the flights were 50 direct from Wuhan.... Twenty-seven of those flights went to San Francisco and 23 to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. The last flights from Wuhan came in early February...." because of the Trump travel ban.

Flights from Italy and Spain:  "More than 1,400 direct flights from Italy landed in U.S. cities from December to March, including more than 500 in February and March....Another 2,255 flights from Spain landed in U.S. cities....Nearly 100 of the Italy-to-Miami flights happened over six weeks in February and early March before the U.S. imposed restrictions. .....Also in March, more than 400 flights left Spain for 12 American cities. Close to half of those flights landed at two New York City region airports: JFK and Newark Liberty. ...The flights directly from China, Italy and Spain reached at least 15 states.

Also, "Of the Customs and Border Protection personnel that tested positive, 52, were from New York ports of entry, 20 were from Miami and Fort Lauderdale airports and facilities, 10 from Los Angeles work sites and 10 from New Jersey."

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/disaster-motion-flights-coronavirus-ravaged-countries-landed-us/story?id=70025470

This is mind numbing if one considers the R-naught rate of this virus is 2-2.5.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: calmissile on April 08, 2020, 12:56:33 PM
Have been thinking about GQ's "What Next" question.
It seems to me that one of the most important priorities is to reopen our industry and businesses.  So what are the options to do this with minimal impact on the virus spreading and reappearing?

The lockdowns, shelter in place, and social distancing appears to have worked to a large extent but isn't a practical solution to getting our country back to work.  So what tools do we have that are available now or in the near future that can be used to allow the work force to resume getting back to work?

Since there is no vaccine to prevent the population from contracting the virus, we must rely on other methods to prevent the transmission of the virus.  The experts have indicated that the transmission mechanism best understood is from physical contact and via inhaling the vapors from infected individuals (coughing, etc).

It would seem to me that businesses could implement measures that would greatly minimize the transmission of the virus in the workplace.
1.  Require all employees to  wear masks to minimize the risk of spreading the virus from someone infected to other workers.
2.  Install the disinfectant hand wash dispensers in all bathrooms lunchrooms, hallways, etc.   Our company had already done this prior to the virus outbreak.  Just good planning by someone in our company I guess.
3.  For businesses that deal with the public, install the disinfectant wipe dispensers such as our grocery stores have already done.
4.  Any employee that shows signs of virus symptoms should be sent home and not return until tested.   Our company already took similar actions by sending an employee home whos wife had just returned from Spain.

In addition, until a vaccine is available I think the public wearing masks in public would probably also minimize the spread of the virus.  I would not have to last forever, just until the epidemic is under control and a vaccine is readily available.

What are your thoughts or other solutions?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 08, 2020, 02:04:35 PM
Have been thinking about GQ's "What Next" question.
It seems to me that one of the most important priorities is to reopen our industry and businesses.  So what are the options to do this with minimal impact on the virus spreading and reappearing?

The lockdowns, shelter in place, and social distancing appears to have worked to a large extent but isn't a practical solution to getting our country back to work.  So what tools do we have that are available now or in the near future that can be used to allow the work force to resume getting back to work?

Since there is no vaccine to prevent the population from contracting the virus, we must rely on other methods to prevent the transmission of the virus.  The experts have indicated that the transmission mechanism best understood is from physical contact and via inhaling the vapors from infected individuals (coughing, etc)…

No easy answer to this, Cal. Certainly not a fool-proof solution until a vaccine comes around. As I posted above, short of having a portable (personal) test kit where a person can test themselves everyday, it's Russian roulette going back outside and attempting to go back to 'normal'.

Let me address some of your bulleted items...

It would seem to me that businesses could implement measures that would greatly minimize the transmission of the virus in the workplace.
1.  Require all employees to  wear masks to minimize the risk of spreading the virus from someone infected to other workers.

As a result of the revelation in our company that a co-worker came down with symptoms of the virus and stayed home, they issued the following notice this morning..

" Good Morning Team,
Beginning Friday, April 10, 2020, all office personnel will be required to wear a face cover when socializing during business hours.  This includes any office meetings or walking around the office. 

All personnel working outside are required to wear a face cover at all times beginning today....
"

2.  Install the disinfectant hand wash dispensers in all bathrooms lunchrooms, hallways, etc.   Our company had already done this prior to the virus outbreak.  Just good planning by someone in our company I guess.

We had a crew for 3 weeks now that were sanitizing our work place on a daily basis...door knobs, tools, computers, desks, tables, etc...it still didn't stop a co-worker from being symptomatic. All you really got is a false sense of security.

3.  For businesses that deal with the public, install the disinfectant wipe dispensers such as our grocery stores have already done.

4.  Any employee that shows signs of virus symptoms should be sent home and not return until tested.   Our company already took similar actions by sending an employee home whos wife had just returned from Spain.

Thin line to ensuring the safety of the public by provisions of items or programs of prevention, whether public or private entity, from it becoming an invitation of open liability.

Companies in our industry had already started sending 'CYA' notices to all sub-tiers with varying response programs that does nothing more than cover their butts for any potential lawsuits.

For example, from now on, before entering and starting any work in our projects, every single personnel is supposed to go through interviews and answer a set of stabled questions (e.g. Have you exposed yourself with someone showing symptoms within the last 24 hours? etc...), then get temp scanned, etc...if passed, person signs in and goes to work. If not, he's turned around and instructed to go home and quarantine.

Great! What does the person do after? He can't get tested unless he begins to show symptoms. He quarantines and never got sick enough to be tested - how then does he go back to work? Who's going to give him a certificate he's no longer infected? There are a whole lot of us who are asymptomatic that can easily 'pass' these silly surficial tests and questioning but it doesn't screen or mitigate the infection.

In addition, until a vaccine is available I think the public wearing masks in public would probably also minimize the spread of the virus.  I would not have to last forever, just until the epidemic is under control and a vaccine is readily available.

What are your thoughts or other solutions?

There is no easy answer, and there definitely is no solution short of a vaccine. This is our reality today. Look at the daily count case accounting here and worldwide. A million and a half, and these are people who had symptoms, representing roughly 10% of the people who actually got tested that turned out 'positive'. This virus' R-naught is 2-2.5. How many amongst us is asymptomatic that were never tested? How long will it be before THEY begin the vicious infection spree again?

BC can chime in to validate if this report from Italy is true or not. Apparently earlier this week, or last week, a report that came out of Lombardy that said 60 people showed up to donate blood at a blood bank. They found out 40 of them tested positive. 40 out of 60 of people! And these folks were on a strict lockdown mode for weeks! Can you imagine that? People who stayed at home were infected and would've likely gone to work and started associating with everyone again.

It's going to be a wild, wild west out there right now. Health/economy will be nothing more than having to choose between the lesser evil. Either by each of us, or forced by our respective governments.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 08, 2020, 02:36:50 PM
ABC News: US intelligence warned of China's spreading contagion in November

US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.


America spies on China and probably intercepted some phone calls pertaining to China's effort to fight an epidemic in Wuhan. As I mentioned before, my uncle was in a tour group touring China in November. They were supposed to stop in Wuhan in the middle of November but their train was stopped by the Chinese military and told to go around the city.

The virus probably came about earlier than China said it did. It's apparent China has deceived the world from the beginning.

How does this not put to rest that the US was unguarded against a misinformation campaign in China? 


Trump gets intel briefings everyday pertaining to all the bad things and threats around the world. He can't act on every one of them and he can't save everybody's life. Trump and past presidents have not acted on most of what they are told.

We don't know if Trump acted in November or not to the intel finding. Trump's administration isn't going to go to war over this and if you call China they would probably deny it. At the most, Trump's administration would call WHO and ask them to look into it and when WHO had evidence a coronavirus existed, they put out info it wasn't human to human transferable and there was nothing to worry about all the way up to Jan 20. Trump acted shortly after that to the protests of the Democrats who some also gets the same intel briefings as Trump.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 08, 2020, 02:47:23 PM
GQ,

You want the world to stay sequestered?

Rather than name all the beneficial developments that will eventually happen ( e. g., massive testing), let me say we can not wait for an "all clear" announcement.  More and more of the working population must venture out into the unknown and work, with the best protective measures available on a mass scale.   Otherwise we could be set back for years, maybe even experiencing  the apocalyptic life envisioned in Krimster's perplexing scribbling.   

I am not voicing a herd immunity approach.  Rather it is a recognition that some will become infected until we have a complete and impeccable set of protective tools.  Although some of the infected will have serious reactions, our medical treatment protocols are improving for curing the infected.   

The question of course is how many would become infected and how severe the infection.  But we can't stay at home until the money runs out.     
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 08, 2020, 03:07:54 PM
No Gator, of course not.

I do understand the importance of turning our national economic engine back running again, sooner than later. It's like you said, we need to go head-on to this despite knowing what the implications are. Wifey just sent me an article that one of their main competitor - BDO - sent a memo to its employees about their company-wide pay cuts to stave off current condition. We cannot afford a prolonged shutdown like this.

These are unprecedented times. Very concerning. Damned if you do, double damned if you don't.

As I said above, no easy answer. No perfect solution. For now...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: calmissile on April 08, 2020, 03:32:29 PM
No sooner than GQ had posted a notice from their company I received an email at home with basically the same message..

"Good Afternoon Everyone,

In accordance with San Bernardino County, as xxxxxxxxxxxxx, Inc resides in this county – all employees while on site must wear a protective cloth that covers your nose and mouth that is secured to ears or back of head. You must wear this protective covering while on the property. This is mandatory as we want to support the efforts and safety measures that our county has implemented to maintain a safe work environment for everyone on site.

Suggested forms of cloth coverings include:
·   Bandanas
·   Scarves
·   Neck gaiters
·   Reusable cloth masks

Please note: Surgical masks and the N95 masks must be preserved for healthcare workers and emergency responders.


xxxxxxxxxx   placed an order for reusable/washable cloth masks that will be available tomorrow morning. If you do not have any of the suggested cloth covering options available please see your immediate supervisor so they can facilitate getting you a cloth mask.

Please communicate this information to your team members that do not have email"

As we are considered a critical industry, most of our workers are still having to report to our plant.  It appears to me that maybe businesses are already preparing to mitigate the risks of workers when they come back to work.

Thanks GQ for the response.  Hopefully a plan to restore our employment will be coming soon.


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 08, 2020, 11:06:50 PM
Wow.. woke up this morning to find constructive discourse! How refreshing!

Maybe the shellshock of this experience will give us pause with recriminations so we all can think about the basics of the mess we put ourselves into.

Using Occam's Razor to slice the pie:

First, we will see a higher frequency of pandemics as the world population and density grows. Natural and unnatural forces are further restricting the space in which we live, and increasing sources and breeding grounds for new viral outbreaks.

Second, our ability to travel quickly, easily and cheaply makes for a fantastic viral distribution network. Just a few decades or so ago we would likely not have experienced such a fast worldwide spread of a virus that does not respect borders.

Third, we were not adequately prepared for a pandemic event whether 'we' be a city, county, state, country or world.

Fourth, we are learning the hard way that Science and Politics do not mix well with resulting Economic harm.

Fifth, we are not able to leverage the full potential of our capabilities fighting and recovering from a pandemic.

Sixth, we cannot deal with or overcome a pandemic event alone.  It must be a worldwide effort.

What did I miss?

As bad as this one is, we have been very, very lucky.  The inevitable 'next one' can easily be exponentially more dangerous and infective. The difference is only a molecule here or there.  The only thing worse than the virus itself is our complacency.

Knowing all this, do you think we (humanity) have the drive and wherewithal to think and do things that are far beyond ourselves and our borders to survive the 'next time?

If so, will our fears, recriminations and finger-pointing allow us to progress, or will we first have to overcome these defects of our character to have a decent chance of resolving the challenge in front of us?

Just thoughts to ponder...

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: jone on April 08, 2020, 11:52:25 PM
Looks like we need to get off planet for the protection of the human race, LOL.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 09, 2020, 05:32:24 AM



2.  Install the disinfectant hand wash dispensers in all bathrooms lunchrooms, hallways, etc.   Our company had already done this prior to the virus outbreak.  Just good planning by someone in our company I guess.
 
It seems to me that all the extra hand washing eventually will lead to only the super resistant and strongest virus remaining and growing.   

Fathertime!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 09, 2020, 05:39:12 AM
America spies on China and probably intercepted some phone calls pertaining to China's effort to fight an epidemic in Wuhan. As I mentioned before, my uncle was in a tour group touring China in November. They were supposed to stop in Wuhan in the middle of November but their train was stopped by the Chinese military and told to go around the city.

The virus probably came about earlier than China said it did. It's apparent China has deceived the world from the beginning.

Trump gets intel briefings everyday pertaining to all the bad things and threats around the world. He can't act on every one of them and he can't save everybody's life. Trump and past presidents have not acted on most of what they are told.

We don't know if Trump acted in November or not to the intel finding. Trump's administration isn't going to go to war over this and if you call China they would probably deny it. At the most, Trump's administration would call WHO and ask them to look into it and when WHO had evidence a coronavirus existed, they put out info it wasn't human to human transferable and there was nothing to worry about all the way up to Jan 20. Trump acted shortly after that to the protests of the Democrats who some also gets the same intel briefings as Trump.
Bottom line is the info was in Trump's hands in late November.  The virus spread here well after that.  Personally I don't think much short of a complete lock down would have prevented it. I continue to believe that Trump has decided to prioritize business over saving everybody.  That may just be the lessor of the two evils from his view.

Fathertime! 

Fathertime!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 09, 2020, 06:51:16 AM
we all can think about the basics of the mess we put ourselves into.


WE? You mean China? Whether or not it came from a laboratory or eating strange animals without thoroughly cooking them, it's China that got us in this mess. Nothing what you say below is a factor.

Using Occam's Razor to slice the pie:

First, we will see a higher frequency of pandemics as the world population and density grows. Natural and unnatural forces are further restricting the space in which we live, and increasing sources and breeding grounds for new viral outbreaks.

Second, our ability to travel quickly, easily and cheaply makes for a fantastic viral distribution network. Just a few decades or so ago we would likely not have experienced such a fast worldwide spread of a virus that does not respect borders.

Third, we were not adequately prepared for a pandemic event whether 'we' be a city, county, state, country or world.

Fourth, we are learning the hard way that Science and Politics do not mix well with resulting Economic harm.

Fifth, we are not able to leverage the full potential of our capabilities fighting and recovering from a pandemic.

Sixth, we cannot deal with or overcome a pandemic event alone.  It must be a worldwide effort.

What did I miss?



You missed Climate Change. Yes, I read that from the media climate saying change is helping viruses flourish. Funny thing is most experts agree hot temperatures is something viruses don't like. I hope Nancy Pelosi puts in 500 billion into the next relief bill to combating climate change. Not.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 09, 2020, 08:01:55 AM
WE? You mean China? Whether or not it came from a laboratory or eating strange animals without thoroughly cooking them, it's China that got us in this mess. Nothing what you say below is a factor.

The China blame thread is here http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24254.0

Quote
You missed Climate Change. Yes, I read that from the media climate saying change is helping viruses flourish. Funny thing is most experts agree hot temperatures is something viruses don't like. I hope Nancy Pelosi puts in 500 billion into the next relief bill to combating climate change. Not.

That is included in the first point 'Natural and unnatural forces'.  Melting permafrost, for example, is filled with all kinds of bacteria and virus from days long past that we have not yet encountered.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 09, 2020, 08:10:30 AM
...
What did I miss?

The nature of humankind. We've witness glimpses of moments in time what became of our nature when it came down the final act. That sinister nature in us will be the worst thing that will be our own undoing.

We all would like to celebrate moments of idealism, but these few feel-good moments are fleeting and easily dispensed. When all is said and done, self-preservation kicks in, and trust me - it'll prevail. Last man standing.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 09, 2020, 08:14:54 AM
We all would like to celebrate moments of idealism, but these few feel-good moments are fleeting and easily dispensed. When all is said and done, self-preservation kicks in, and trust me - it'll prevail. Last man standing.

If that is the case, we have learned little, maybe nothing worthwhile.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on April 09, 2020, 08:16:43 AM
It seems to me that all the extra hand washing eventually will lead to only the super resistant and strongest virus remaining and growing.   

Fathertime!

Your argument lacks logic. Sanitary practices are beneficial not detrimental. 

Should surgeons not wash their hands before surgery?

Title: nCoV faulty and incomplete computer models/modeling
Post by: 2tallbill on April 09, 2020, 08:23:36 AM
You missed Climate Change. Yes, I read that from the media climate saying change is helping viruses flourish. Funny thing is most experts agree hot temperatures is something viruses don't like. I hope Nancy Pelosi puts in 500 billion into the next relief bill to combating climate change. Not.

You bring up an excellent point.

The man made global warming hysteria is based on faulty and
incomplete computer models/modeling. The wild and wide viral
death speculation are based on faulty and incomplete computer
models/modeling.

Title: Heard resistance to Corona being tried in Sweden
Post by: ML on April 09, 2020, 08:28:16 AM
From another thread:

"Did Boris actually say he was thinking about "herd immunity". I know a few of your medical experts thought about it. Could it be your anti Boris media is putting words into his mouth?"

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Saw interesting segment on PBS last night regarding this.

It compared Corona situation in two similarly homogeneous countries Denmark and Sweden.

Apparently Sweden took exactly the tack that Boris was accused of above.
They had no lockdown, and even used the words survival and let our people contract Corona, develop antibodies, and create a herd resistance for the future.

Denmark, on the other hand took the opposite approach and had substantial lockdown.

Now the results are showing that Sweden's death rate from Corona is nearly twice that of Denmark's.

So substantial questioning and discussion by Sweden's government.

The King of Sweden went on TV this week criticizing the government stance on lockdown, and urged the Swedish people to not leave their homes to go to country cottages as is the tradition this time of year.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 09, 2020, 08:30:22 AM
If that is the case, we have learned little, maybe nothing worthwhile.

I'm afraid so. Certainly not meaning to be gloom and doom, but there were moments in this current crisis that really paints the deeply rooted nature in all of us. It's in all our DNA.

At the slightest sight of a crisis, people begin to act out behaviors that shocks all of us first, but begin to submit to the behavior. Must we really need to be reminded and told not to hoard stupid things like toilet papers? Food items? Protective clothing?

Alas, this behavior isn't just in the bottom sectors of all our societies. Look at all our politicians/leaders...countries retaining or depriving PPEs to countries under current need to make sure they have the items when the crisis hits them.

Look at those cruise ships wandering about our open oceans because no country would allow them to dock despite its desperate plea for assistance.

Help comes to the highest bidder - whether monetarily or political influences. Country or individual.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 09, 2020, 08:39:21 AM
I understand and totally agree with your points GQ.

But I remain hopeful that this globe-spanning event can turn a wee bit of 'me' into a tiny spark of 'we'.
Title: Re: Heard resistance to Corona being tried in Sweden
Post by: BC on April 09, 2020, 08:48:29 AM

Now the results are showing that Sweden's death rate from Corona is nearly twice that of Denmark's.


ditto between Sweden and Norway.  Compensating for population 2.5-3 times the deaths.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 09, 2020, 09:06:54 AM
The China blame thread is here http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24254.0


So this is the blame "WE" thread?

Apparently Sweden took exactly the tack that Boris was accused of above.
They had no lockdown, and even used the words survival and let our people contract Corona, develop antibodies, and create a heard resistance for the future.


Sweden has a liberal leader, right? So no problem. If the leader was Conservative, they would get criticized for not following their medical experts advice or get blamed for following their medical experts advice. Conservative leaders can never do right.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 09, 2020, 09:15:44 AM
I understand and totally agree with your points GQ.

But I remain hopeful that this globe-spanning event can turn a wee bit of 'me' into a tiny spark of 'we'.

Unfortunately that can only happen in the very short run.
Human nature is one of self survival, its in the genes, learned over thousands of years. It is why homo sapiens survived/adapted. It is why there is war. It is why people horde, the survival mentality!!
It is Darwin's theory of survival of the fittest. Mother nature has brought on other things like bacteria and virus which keeps the human race from overpopulating. The human mind has thought of ways to extend life, so now we have different illnesses to die from. I wonder what will happen when we start replacing body parts( organs).
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 09, 2020, 09:17:20 AM
I wonder what will happen when we start replacing body parts( organs).

I will ask for a bigger . . . .
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 09, 2020, 09:17:58 AM
Brain, of course.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 09, 2020, 09:21:18 AM
I wonder what will happen when we start replacing body parts( organs).

Haven't we been doing such regularly since the 60's?
 :D
Title: Re: Heard resistance to Corona being tried in Sweden
Post by: msmob on April 09, 2020, 09:42:44 AM
ditto between Sweden and Norway.  Compensating for population 2.5-3 times the deaths.

I had this discussion with our most prominent Swedish member and I promised I'd re-visit this Swedish outlier tactic  with Nightwish

At the time the UK had proportionally the same number of deaths ..

A week ( or so ) on and Sweden stands at c 800 - pop 10 million  http://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa (http://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa)

The UK stands at c. 8000 ( ten times)                  - pop 70 million  ( 7 times larger ) 


I appreciate comparing neighbours with land borders makes more sense, but if the UK is compared with the US..

24,000 deaths ... ( five times gtr population ) should be 40k - if comparing to the UK ......


Are we comparing nations at the same point in the curve ?






Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 09, 2020, 09:48:57 AM
Death rate per capita is the only sensible way to measure.

Telling absolute numbers is meaningless.

Yes, I agree that where a country is on the curve is important for comparisons.

As I understood it, Sweden and Denmark are at or near same point on curve, and their similar population gives their death rate comparison a good amount of validity.

Stop trying to compare number of deaths.  Only rate per capita is meaningful.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 09, 2020, 09:50:22 AM
Brain, of course.

That would only mean that a lesser percentage would be functioning!!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 09, 2020, 09:51:51 AM
Haven't we been doing such regularly since the 60's?
 :D

I don't mean used ones, I mean the new and improved ones!!  )))
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 09, 2020, 09:59:00 AM
Death rate per capita is the only sensible way to measure.

Telling absolute numbers is meaningless.

Yes, I agree that where a country is on the curve is important for comparisons.

As I understood it, Sweden and Denmark are at or near same point on curve, and their similar population gives their death rate comparison a good amount of validity.

Stop trying to compare number of deaths.  Only rate per capita is meaningful.

Death rate per capita doesn't tell you anything but statistics. I would rather know why!!!

Like Italy, 25% of population is over 65, the coronavirus has killed older folks/underlying conditions at a significant rate.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 09, 2020, 10:04:27 AM
Quote from: LaMan
Like Italy, 25% of population is over 65, the coronavirus has killed older folks/underlying conditions at a significant rate.

On the subject of comorbidities, it's becoming apparent classification in causes of death is taking wings for no other reason than money again has become a major part of this crisis.

The numbers we have (apparently) are as follows: Treatment for coronavirus care and hospitalization $13,900.00. ICU care to death, it blooms to $39,000.00. That's per person.

Dr. Fauci was adamant yesterday and referred to this as a 'conspiracy theory'. The opposing view cited that coronavirus death counts are inflated because not of all of them died of the virus, but rather because of underlying medical condition. However, Dr. Fauci contends there's no argument as to the cause of death in this crisis- which is coronavirus. Dr. Brix supported the statement.

Quote from: Dr. Brix
Those individuals will have an underlying condition. But that underlying condition did not cause their acute death when it's related to a COVID infection. In fact, it's the opposite. Having an underlying condition and getting this virus we know is particularly damaging to those individuals.

One prominent doctor in particular rejected this notion. He gave an example, if a person was hit by car and was hospitalized in ICU, and was tested to be positive with coronavirus, eventually died. Is it right to cite the cause of death was due to coronavirus?

There had been a multitude of pushback from the medical community as most of the deaths, they argue, are because of people's underlying medical condition (diabetes, coronary conditions, hypertensions (high blood), pneumonia, etc...) and not because of this virus. Rejecting Dr. Fauci's statement altogether.

Any thoughts?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 09, 2020, 10:12:44 AM

I'm wondering about Germany's death rate per capita. 10 times lower than their neighbors in some cases. Many people who died had underlying medical conditions. When a person dies, does a nation blame it on the underlying condition or COVID-19? Of course some nations deceive but others who are normally honest but don't not want to tell the full truth may want to blame a death on an existing condition instead of COVID-19. Accurate data is important but it seems data from nations are all over the place. We may never learn the full truth about how deadly COVID-19 is.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 09, 2020, 10:55:15 AM
In looking at anomalies through research I found something interesting.

What are the most traveled nations?

1. China
Goes everywhere!!! Almost twice as much as USA
2. USA
Travels mostly everywhere

Huge gap between these two and following nations

3. Germany
Where do Germans most visit? Austria,France and Spain!!
4. UK
Where do most people in UK visit? Spain, France
5. France
Where do French most visit? Italy
6. Canada
Where do Canadiens most visit? USA
7. Korea
Where do Koreans most visit? Japan and China
8. Italy
Where do Italians most visit? France, Spain and Germany

Anybody see any coincidences here??? In travel of a certain virus?

Guess what the top visited countries in the world???

1. France
2. Spain
3. USA
4. China
5. Italy

Now you can clearly see patterns in flow of the coronavirus!!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 09, 2020, 11:00:27 AM
Some countries like Italy test posthumously.  Early on Germany did not so some initial deaths may not be represented.  Even if they were included the rate would still be low.

Aside from optimal hospital capacity, they were testing wider, even with only minor symptoms than most other countries AND actively tracking down contact after contact etc etc to isolate.  They are very methodical and follow the plan meticulously.  They are the kind of people that had a plan for this far in advance and were quite prepared for it.  A part of their plan was protecting the elderly, asking them to isolate along with very strict rules in old folk homes etc etc.  Folks listen and obey, even most of the younger crowd.

Urban planning also plays a role.  Although cities are large, most live in many small outlying towns and sections of town that are separated from each other with a lot of green in-between.  Folks pretty much stick to their own section of town which slows down the spread.

So far despite a lot of infections, no huge spikes and mostly the younger folks affected.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on April 09, 2020, 11:01:00 AM
Bottom line is the info was in Trump's hands in late November.  The virus spread here well after that.  Personally I don't think much short of a complete lock down would have prevented it. I continue to believe that Trump has decided to prioritize business over saving everybody.  That may just be the lessor of the two evils from his view.

Fathertime!

Except that the report wasn't true! The info was in Trumps hands on
January 3.



Defense Official Shoots Down ABC Report
Alleging Trump Admin Ignored Virus Warnings

ABC is quietly sweeping under the rug their own sensational report they
hyped all day Wednesday, which suggested the Trump administration
ignored warnings of an impending pandemic, back in November.
That report is now in dispute, as the very military intelligence
agency which ABC’s unnamed sources cited, has come out
denying the existence of such an intelligence assessment.

There is more read all about it here
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/kristine-marsh/2020/04/09/defense-official-shoots-down-abc-report-alleging-trump-admin

US intelligence agencies started tracking coronavirus
outbreak in China as early as November

Intelligence is often only elevated to the highest levels of the
government once analysts and officials reach a certain threshold
of confidence in their assessment.

That day came on January 3, the first day the President's daily briefing
included information the US intelligence community had gathered about
the contagion in China and the potential it had to spread, including to
the US, according to a person briefed on the matter.

There is more read all about it here
http://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/intel-agencies-covid-november/index.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 09, 2020, 11:19:00 AM

China lock down another city. Says infections were imported from Russia so China closes Border with Russia. I don't think China will ever admit again infections increase domestically because they want everybody to believe they have it under control.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-closes-russia-border-puts-new-city-into-wuhan-style-lockdown/ar-BB12mi7f?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 09, 2020, 11:35:57 AM
China lock down another city. Says infections were imported from Russia so China closes Border with Russia. I don't think China will ever admit again infections increase domestically because they want everybody to believe they have it under control.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-closes-russia-border-puts-new-city-into-wuhan-style-lockdown/ar-BB12mi7f?ocid=spartanntp

You do know Russia closed border to China over a month ago??? What does it matter that China closes a border that is already closed??

Now is that really a 'story'
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 09, 2020, 11:44:05 AM
You do know Russia closed border to China over a month ago??? What does it matter that China closes a border that is already closed??

Now is that really a 'story'

Russia closed the border with China in January. Closed doesn't mean entirely closed. Russia won't allow Chinese nationals to enter Russia but will let those who are in Russia return home.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 09, 2020, 11:55:48 AM
Russia closed the border with China in January. Closed doesn't mean entirely closed. Russia won't allow Chinese nationals to enter Russia but will let those who are in Russia return home.

So in your mind, closed doesn't always mean closed.

So China closing border doesn't mean entirely closed either?? So why say it?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on April 09, 2020, 12:06:03 PM
in the post-crash world, there is no morality, no guiding principles,
no way to stop the inexorable slide toward a life without the institutions that keep America from looking like scenes from The Road Warrior...
and I fully embrace it....

there will be two kinds of people...
those who do "unto others"
and those that have it done to them...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 09, 2020, 12:08:00 PM
Russia can close its border, which usually means they don't let people in.

This may not mean they won't let people out.

So, perhaps, people could still go from Russia to China.

In that case, it would make sense for China to close that very same border, to keep people from entering China.

e.g. Some in USA would like to close the border with Mexico.

But I am sure they are thinking out keeping people out; not stopping people from leaving USA to enter Mexico.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 09, 2020, 12:27:26 PM
So China closing border doesn't mean entirely closed either?? So why say it?


Ask the media why they said it. Maybe they're simply repeating what China said leaving out some details?

So in your mind, closed doesn't always mean closed.


In my mind, I know there's more detail to every story than what the media reports. They like to leave a lot of things/truth out of their stories, especially when it comes to Trump.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 09, 2020, 12:37:31 PM
Countries will normally let their own citizens back in if 'closed'.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 09, 2020, 02:11:54 PM
Ask the media why they said it. Maybe they're simply repeating what China said leaving out some details?

In my mind, I know there's more detail to every story than what the media reports. They like to leave a lot of things/truth out of their stories, especially when it comes to Trump.

You as bad as the media, trying to sensationalize every minute story that comes out. Don't care about whether there is any truth or not , it's a story!!

So the stories that are not the truth are the ones you don't agree with? You're a talking head!! Many are here!!!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 09, 2020, 02:29:21 PM
You as bad as the media, trying to sensationalize every minute story that comes out. Don't care about whether there is any truth or not , it's a story!!

So the stories that are not the truth are the ones you don't agree with? You're a talking head!! Many are here!!!

I wish more of you would get upset with fake news media as you do with me. Maybe we'll get more accurate stories. The story I linked wasn't minute. It was extremely important, not because the border got closed which is what you focused on but because China is experiencing a second wave of outbreaks. Their draconian style lock downs was just a temporary solution.
Title: 2019 - nCoV (novel approach from Sweden)
Post by: 2tallbill on April 09, 2020, 02:44:00 PM
Did Sweden blunder? Or did everyone else?
http://jewishworldreview.com/jeff/jacoby040920.php3


Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring
http://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/


Sweden Thinks Herd Immunity Is the Answer to Coronavirus
http://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqjyd/sweden-thinks-herd-immunity-is-the-answer-to-coronavirus

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 09, 2020, 02:48:53 PM
So the stories that are not the truth are the ones you don't agree with? You're a talking head!! Many are here!!!

That discussion is well worth its own topic.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 09, 2020, 08:57:41 PM
Countries will normally let their own citizens back in if 'closed'.

'Indeed' ?

I'll mention this to our friend Anatoly in Pattaya.. He'll be glad to know.. given his April 5th Flight was cancelled, his wife had a an unscheduled hysterectomy and he's still in Thailand ..

SC got back in on the 26th March as the shutters were coming down, later that day.

Russia closed it's border with Georgia - even to citizens in private vehicles - other than freight traffic - on the 28th . The border with Azerbaijan remained open, but no way to cross from GE to AZ...((

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-travel-restrictions-border-shutdowns-country-200318091505922.html (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-travel-restrictions-border-shutdowns-country-200318091505922.html)


Russian citizens, still abroad, await 'repatriation' flights being organised..

http://www.rferl.org/a/russia-evacuation-coronavirus-foreign/30532004.html (http://www.rferl.org/a/russia-evacuation-coronavirus-foreign/30532004.html)


http://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/stranded-nearly-21000-russians-struggling-to-get-home (http://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/stranded-nearly-21000-russians-struggling-to-get-home)

The Phuket journal seems to ignore Pattaya..

 

 

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 10, 2020, 06:26:02 AM
The state of Washington is shipping out the federal provided ventilators and FEMA’s hospital beds that were set-up at the convention center.  Gov. Inslee said they can spare these at this time and hoped to stay the current course.

Good news and great job Washington!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 10, 2020, 06:28:30 AM
Is Ivermectin the new HCQ? Australia seem to think so.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Grumpy on April 10, 2020, 06:51:07 AM
Is Ivermectin the new HCQ? Australia seem to think so.


I suppose a good deworming might make you feel better.

http://www.webmd.com/drugs/2/drug-1122/ivermectin-oral/details

http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=229893

Second link is more on topic.
Title: Washington University in St Louis launches investigation of chloroquine.
Post by: ML on April 10, 2020, 07:43:49 AM
Washington University in St Louis launches investigation of chloroquine.

http://www.union-bulletin.com/news/national/washington-university-launches-clinical-trial-on-controversial-drug-to-treat-coronavirus/article_6dd937a3-f9f9-5afb-8275-8698375c71aa.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 10, 2020, 07:48:13 AM
I can't be arsed to start a VPN to read ML's link

"451: Unavailable due to legal reasons
We recognize you are attempting to access this website from a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at this time. For any issues, contact websupport@wwub.com or call 509-525-3301."

May I please ask folk to note that they are probably referring to HCQ not CQ..
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Grumpy on April 10, 2020, 07:51:44 AM
I can't be arsed to start a VPN to read ML's link

"451: Unavailable due to legal reasons
We recognize you are attempting to access this website from a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at this time. For any issues, contact websupport@wwub.com or call 509-525-3301."

May I please ask folk to note that they are probably referring to HCQ not CQ..


The trial will look at different combinations of chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been used to treat malaria and some inflammatory conditions, but have not been proven as treatment for COVID-19.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 10, 2020, 07:57:30 AM

The trial will look at different combinations of chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been used to treat malaria and some inflammatory conditions, but have not been proven as treatment for COVID-19.

Thanks, Grumpy

I have a v.close relative that has reason to take HCQ as part of a cocktail of potentially lethal drugs and some utter plonkers have been buying up stock due to some v.dodgy clinical trials

http://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1432  (http://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1432)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 10, 2020, 08:21:27 AM

I suppose a good deworming might make you feel better.

http://www.webmd.com/drugs/2/drug-1122/ivermectin-oral/details

http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=229893

Second link is more on topic.

I knew what the drug is for, but it is in clinical trial currently as a covid treatment.

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928345
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011

Unlike HCQ, which immobilizes the virus as the person immunity then destroys it, the drug appears to identify the virus as a parasite and attacks it and prevents it from replicating.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 10, 2020, 08:47:29 AM

Also from ML's article

The goal of the Washington University trial is to determine if any of the medications decrease the severity or duration of respiratory symptoms associated with the new coronavirus.

“There have been only a few small studies that have evaluated chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19 infection, and the results are unclear,” infectious disease specialist Rachel M. Presti said in a statement. Presti is an associate professor of medicine, and is co-leading the trial.

Patients hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 at Barnes-Jewish Hospital will be enrolled.

There will be four groups of patients in the trial. One will receive chloroquine, a second will receive hydroxychloroquine, a third will receive chloroquine and azithromycin, and the fourth will receive hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.

What is missing from the article is at what level of COVID-19 the test subjects will have when given the medicines. These medicines were given to mostly old patients in critical conditions in hospitals. I can't imagine they'll allow patients in critical condition to leave the hospital to go to a test lab. They'll probably test the medicines on younger people that are not in critical condition. Also, not only do they need to find medicines that work, they need to find the dosage that is ideal. There will be many tests involved. The good thing is those medicines have already been tested on other diseases so they already know the safe levels they can prescribe the medicine to people.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Grumpy on April 10, 2020, 11:26:45 AM
As doctors learn more about the disease, however, both frontline experience and a few small studies are leading him and others to question how, and how often, mechanical ventilators are used for Covid-19.

The first batch of evidence relates to how often the machines fail to help. “Contrary to the impression that if extremely ill patients with Covid-19 are treated with ventilators they will live and if they are not, they will die, the reality is far different,” said geriatric and palliative care physician Muriel Gillick of Harvard Medical School.

Researchers in Wuhan, for instance, reported that, of 37 critically ill Covid-19 patients who were put on mechanical ventilators, 30 died within a month. In a U.S. study of patients in Seattle, only one of the seven patients older than 70 who were put on a ventilator survived; just 36% of those younger than 70 did. And in a study published by JAMA on Monday, physicians in Italy reported that nearly 90% of 1,300 critically ill patients with Covid-19 were intubated and put on a ventilator; only 11% received noninvasive ventilation. One-quarter died in the ICU; 58% were still in the ICU, and 16% had been discharged.

Older patients who do survive risk permanent cognitive and respiratory damage from being on heavy sedation for many days if not weeks and from the intubation, Gillick said.

To be sure, the mere need for ventilators in Covid-19 patients suggests many in the studies were so critically ill their chances of survival were poor no matter what care they received.

But one of the most severe consequences of Covid-19 suggests another reason the ventilators aren’t more beneficial. In acute respiratory distress syndrome, which results from immune cells ravaging the lungs and kills many Covid-19 patients, the air sacs of the lungs become filled with a gummy yellow fluid. “That limits oxygen transfer from the lungs to the blood even when a machine pumps in oxygen,” Gillick said.

As patients go downhill, protocols developed for other respiratory conditions call for increasing the force with which a ventilator delivers oxygen, the amount of oxygen, or the rate of delivery, she explained. But if oxygen can’t cross into the blood from the lungs in the first place, those measures, especially greater force, may prove harmful. High levels of oxygen impair the lung’s air sacs, while high pressure to force in more oxygen damages the lungs.

http://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 10, 2020, 12:44:04 PM
Really great news Grumpy !!

You had better be glad this isn't ancient Greek times where those like you who deliver bad news would be . . . .
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 10, 2020, 12:51:29 PM

Unlike HCQ, which immobilizes the virus as the person immunity then destroys it..

It is thought - in some cases ... you post as if it is a known panacea..   :deadhorse:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 10, 2020, 01:00:15 PM
'Indeed' ?

I'll mention this to our friend Anatoly in Pattaya.. He'll be glad to know.. given his April 5th Flight was cancelled, his wife had a an unscheduled hysterectomy and he's still in Thailand ..


If it is about flights being cancelled, that is a commercial and not .gov matter.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 10, 2020, 01:19:02 PM

Trump had his briefing and answered questions.

He said America is doing fine and we will have a surplus of PPE and ventilators to send to Mexico and Europe. He said because Americans have made good decisions our projected deaths may be below 60K.

He was asked about Sweden not closing schools and their approach to the virus. Trump said he' seeing problems in Sweden develop and said if we took the same approach, we'd have 2 million dead.

He criticized China for many things and said they get their way many times in international organizations because they have favorable status being labeled a developing nation.

One reporter who's always nasty to Trump said governors complain they don't have enough supplies. Trump asked him to name the governors which the reporter didn't do. Trump said his administration is on the phone with governors everyday and they compliment on what a good job the federal government is doing. He said there are fewer calls because there are less emergencies and it's why there is an abundance of PPE and ventilators to where he can begin to make decisions to sending the supplies to other countries. Trump even said there are empty beds in New York and on hospital ships so if anything, they over did it when preparing for the virus.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 10, 2020, 01:25:13 PM
.... In a U.S. study of patients in Seattle, only one of the seven patients older than 70 who were put on a ventilator survived; just 36% of those younger than 70 did. And in a study published by JAMA on Monday, physicians in Italy reported that nearly 90% of 1,300 critically ill patients with Covid-19 were intubated and put on a ventilator; only 11% received noninvasive ventilation. One-quarter died in the ICU; 58% were still in the ICU, and 16% had been discharged...

Similar to summary information I heard from medical interviews that half of those placed on ventilators succumbed.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 10, 2020, 01:30:28 PM
Was talking to my son today.  His MD friend in a large German city told him that the biggest problem he sees lies with obesity, even more so than pre-existing respiratory conditions.  Not only do the lungs and heart have to work overtime to oxygenate a larger body, but that additional weight also impedes the lungs to expand to their potential.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 10, 2020, 01:31:33 PM
If it is about flights being cancelled, that is a commercial and not .gov matter.

??


The Russian Federation banned all flights inbound from midnight on the 27th March .. irrespective of firm / nationality of the carrier - charter and scheduled  ...




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: krimster2 on April 10, 2020, 01:33:19 PM
yes, the Russians got the Truman in addition to the Roosevelt...
and the Persians have lined Hormuz with missiles...
gettin ready to rumble BOYZ?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 10, 2020, 01:37:39 PM
The Russian Federation banned all flights inbound from midnight on the 27th March .. irrespective of firm / nationality of the carrier - charter and scheduled  ...

Is Russia denying entry to their own citizens that show up at a border checkpoint? 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: mhr7 on April 10, 2020, 04:17:44 PM
??


The Russian Federation banned all flights inbound from midnight on the 27th March .. irrespective of firm / nationality of the carrier - charter and scheduled  ...

Actually it was the 18th of March. I was due to fly to Russia on the 17th from JFK to SVO and Aeroflot wouldn't let me board because I would have landed on the 18th after the border was closed.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 10, 2020, 04:53:29 PM
Was talking to my son today.  His MD friend in a large German city told him that the biggest problem he sees lies with obesity, even more so than pre-existing respiratory conditions.  Not only do the lungs and heart have to work overtime to oxygenate a larger body, but that additional weight also impedes the lungs to expand to their potential.

Give that obese person a double-double cheeseburger , that'll increase their lung size!!! ))


One of biggest problems with obese people is they are very likely to be diabetic, along with other heart issues.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 10, 2020, 05:19:01 PM
??


The Russian Federation banned all flights inbound from midnight on the 27th March .. irrespective of firm / nationality of the carrier - charter and scheduled  ...

You do mean international flights. Domestic flights still running.
I agree with mhr7, international flights stopped on 18th. For Russian nationals not sure if/when it stopped. Surely after March 27 date!! You need update your info Moby!!!

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2F20200326%2F1569163936.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 11, 2020, 01:56:35 AM
You do mean international flights. Domestic flights still running.
I agree with mhr7, international flights stopped on 18th. For Russian nationals not sure if/when it stopped. Surely after March 27 date!! You need update your info Moby!!!

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2F20200326%2F1569163936.html

OMG

Save me from 'experts' .. :D

You know I think I'd know, as wifey was trying to get back TO Russia ;

1/ She'd had an earlier Etihad flt via Abu Dhabi cancelled

2/ OF COURSE international flights

3/ Wifey flew in to SVO Moscow at 04:30 MSK (26th March 2020) on a 100 percent full Rossiya Airlines 777 ( was an Aeroflot flt) 

4/ Only 20 percent of the passengers were RU citizens the rest were (attempting to) transit - I hope they got out.

5/ The shutters came down at 00:00 27th March - irrelevant of carrier nationality / charter or scheduled ..  We have friends on later dates who are still in Thailand and await repatriation flights . The Thais, initially insisted on visa expired folks to report to an immigration centre - 'social distancing' not observed.. That may still be the case.. madness


This has all been previously documented on here.


Anyway, the 'info' LAman sought ;)


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/26/russia-to-ground-all-international-flights-over-coronavirus-a69754 (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/26/russia-to-ground-all-international-flights-over-coronavirus-a69754)

"Russia will halt all international flights from midnight on Friday [ 27/3/2020]  under a government decree listing new measures against the coronavirus outbreak.

The decree published on Thursday [26/3/2020]  orders aviation authorities to halt all regular and charter flights, with the exception of special flights evacuating Russian citizens from abroad."


I know as SC's flight was in the air when it was announced and I thanked God

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 11, 2020, 02:22:06 AM
Is Russia denying entry to their own citizens that show up at a border checkpoint?

I cannot say, for sure ... Another friend in Georgia ( Rep, of) drove his RU registered car back across the border ( into Russia ) at 06:00 - seven hours AFTER the inward flts ban on 27th March 2020

I have just written to him and asked for an update as he has biz interests in Sochi AND Tbilisi


This was our WhatsApp conversation,as he was crossing :

"coming back to Russia, as the factory is switched to #homeoffice"

Moby:  Can you cross?
 I know the border was closed days ago and all international flights stopped yesterday! ....Unless you are Russian?

" Yep, I’m Russian and currently driving through the boarder
At this exact moment 🤣🤣🤣"


I corrected him on the spelling of border ( in Russian) and he sent me some photos ;)

To be clear.. the border had been closed other than for RU / GE citizens ( and those with residency )  to 'repatriate' themselves ...  I THINK Armenia has an arrangement that RU drivers can takeover from  GE ones ( who swapped at the AZ/GE border ) and drive AM trucks ( as AM cannot access RU via AZ and trade staying open is vital to AM)

Leaving GE

(http://i.imgur.com/0XiMnIQ.jpg)


Queuing to enter RU nr Vladikavkas

(http://i.imgur.com/HajLk4M.jpg)



I'm not sure if RU trains run into 'Abkhazia', ( a breakaway republic of GE that RU 'recognises' as a separate entity ) anymore



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 11, 2020, 05:05:44 AM
Update re land borders:

BC,

 my friend in Sochi, who re-entered RU from GE on 27th March, responded:

"5 days after I crossed the border it was officially closed and till now it is closed even for Russian citizens. Currently the only option to come back to Russia is using charter flight organised by Ministry of Foreign affairs of Russia.

The ministry is managing the lists of people willing to come back to Russia and organises a flight. Yet the passengers have to pay 200-350$ for the tickets"


Best, Moby
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 11, 2020, 07:45:47 AM
More on HCQ...from France (http://www.newsweek.com/hydroxychloroquine-trial-gets-french-presidents-attention-460000-sign-petition-supporting-1497218?amp=1)

Most of yesterday’s reports appears to suggest the US had flattened the curve so much so most of the additional provisions supplied by FEMA and the Army Corps of Engineers, hospital beds, ventilators, PPEs, etc. we’re for naught and are either going back to the national stockpile or being switched around to hot spots. Even the two medical ships were barely used, especially the one sent to NY, Comfort.

Ventilators became such a huge issue but never even came to justify the panic that surrounded it. California readied 11,000 units only to have used barely half of it. Trump yesterday even suggested maybe shipping some of them overseas. Not bad considering we’re supposed to have an inferior healthcare system.

None of any of the models that were presented even remotely came close to fruition. Even the most conservative of model was still grossly over-estimated.

Despite the 500,000 confirmed infection, with < 20,000 deaths, hard to believed it paralyzed our nation to a halt if you consider seasonal flu kills more of us on literally any given year (http://www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html).

What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.

This may turn out to be the classic mother-of-all over-reaction.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 11, 2020, 08:18:43 AM
GQ,

What you have to calculate in is also that intensive care folks usually stay on respirators for a long time, 2,3 4 weeks.  The daily rate of infection has not gone down except for typical weekend lulls as it seems labs may be taking weekends.

See the attached graphic.  The US still has a long way to go.  We also have another 3 weeks or so till the new infection numbers fall to a manageable figure.  Fall in deaths and intensive care numbers is slow and will take even longer.  As you can see, the virus is tenacious.

Was the acquisition of ventilators and such overkill? Never.  They can be sent to other countries that may still need them or put back into storage for the inevitable next time.

Note scale is approx. x5 for the US numbers, steady at 30,000 infections daily.  The red X is probably where we're at in the US in comparison, but the plateau may well be longer than ours here in Italy due to many factors.

The flat-top indicates that containment efforts are having an effect.  The peak could have been much much higher. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 11, 2020, 08:31:27 AM
Trump yesterday even suggested maybe shipping some of them overseas.


Suggested? Trump WILL help Italy and other countries with supplies. America has managed the virus enough to slow infections and now we have more supplies than we need so Trump made the pledge to send PPE and ventilators elsewhere

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-says-us-will-help-italy-with-medical-supplies-hospitals/ar-BB12sLAR?ocid=spartanntp

Of course fake news continues to write articles saying governors have to fight over PPE and they're on their own since the federal government doesn't want to help. Did you hear that reporter in yesterday's briefing ask about the States governors don't have enough PPE and Trump said "what governors?" and the guy didn't answer. You can be sure he'll write a fake news story like the one below written yesterday.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/states-do-battle-for-coronavirus-protective-gear-in-a-market-driven-by-chaos-and-fear/ar-BB12rD0L?ocid=spartanntp

None of any of the models that were presented even remotely came close to fruition. Even the most conservative of model was still grossly over-estimated.

Despite the 500,000 confirmed infection, with < 20,000 deaths, hard to believed it paralyzed our nation to a halt if you consider seasonal flu kills more of us on literally any given year (http://www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html).

What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.

This may turn out to be the classic mother-of-all over-reaction.

The projections of deaths are lower because we took adequate action against the virus. A draconian style lockdown and getting surrounded by the army wasn't necessary but there's still going to be a lot of deaths. Most of the people infected are still battling the virus and a portion of them will be placed in the dead pile. This virus is much more harmful to our way of life compared to past coronavirus SARS and MERS. It's not easily controlled and defeated like those viruses and plagues are. This is the virus of the century and worse than the Spanish Flu. I wish we were combating the Spanish flu virus instead of a coronavirus. With the level of medical science and technology we have these days, finding a vaccine and treatments for flu viruses are easy.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 11, 2020, 08:33:40 AM
America has managed the virus enough to slow infections

There was fake news for all to see  :deadhorse:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 11, 2020, 08:44:21 AM

It's official. Today President Trump ordered a “robust assistance package” to be sent to Italy.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/492339-trump-orders-robust-assistance-package-for-italy

There was fake news for all to see  :deadhorse:

If you think things are wildly out of control in America and Trump sends our medical supplies elsewhere, he will pay at the polls. Worry about your problems in the UK. You'll be getting an aid package from America soon. You can thank Trump later.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 11, 2020, 09:11:54 AM
It's official. Today President Trump ordered a “robust assistance package” to be sent to Italy.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/492339-trump-orders-robust-assistance-package-for-italy

If you think things are wildly out of control in America and Trump sends our medical supplies elsewhere, he will pay at the polls. Worry about your problems in the UK. You'll be getting an aid package from America soon. You can thank Trump later.

'Thank you', Silly BillyB ..  I hardly think what will happen at the polls is relevant, NOW ..  ' Trampu's' the man in the driving seat and has lurched all over the road re policy ..and daft pronouncements and politicking. 

'My' govt is the same re the daft pronouncements ..

What  our nations need is for people to stay at home, and be testing health and care workers ...


If one nation is helping another and it's needed..great ...

I have no problems whether it comes from Russia, America, China.





Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 11, 2020, 10:00:56 AM
GQ,

What you have to calculate in is also that intensive care folks usually stay on respirators for a long time, 2,3 4 weeks.  The daily rate of infection has not gone down except for typical weekend lulls as it seems labs may be taking weekends.

See the attached graphic.  The US still has a long way to go.  We also have another 3 weeks or so till the new infection numbers fall to a manageable figure.  Fall in deaths and intensive care numbers is slow and will take even longer.  As you can see, the virus is tenacious.

Was the acquisition of ventilators and such overkill? Never.  They can be sent to other countries that may still need them or put back into storage for the inevitable next time.

Note scale is approx. x5 for the US numbers, steady at 30,000 infections daily.  The red X is probably where we're at in the US in comparison, but the plateau may well be longer than ours here in Italy due to many factors.

The flat-top indicates that containment efforts are having an effect.  The peak could have been much much higher.

Hi BC-

I had just finished watching NY's Andrew Cuomo's press briefing. Rather interesting that he pretty much echoed all of what I posted upthread. I've always been far more interested in NY's situation than that of my state for no other reason than NY is the epicenter of the infection. In the short 45 minutes, he covered many of the current main topics surrounding this virus and its impact. NY, for me, is easily the 'measuring stick', of all things COVID in the US.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZUWxhtJR7E

Heck, he even shut down the buzz about a possible presidential run once and for all.

Scientifically, I can't argue the point in your graph. My only apprehension in these studies is it is lacking certain valid intangibles the actually impacts the field condition at any given time, thus in many ways - presently unpredictable. These graphs, like the modeling, are really nothing more than 'educated predictions', or FWIW, a guesstimates. A good example of this is the 50-year unemployment graph recently used to show the sudden spike this year.

It's never about the 'infection rate for me. it was always about the % of hospitalization. NY have almost 173K, at one time it was getting roughly 40% hospitalization rate, which was mind-blowing, yet to date, it only caused 8,600 deaths. A little less than 5% rate. That's not based on actual tested number and not even considering comorbidity argument. NY's situation looks really bad but not if you really take a closer look at the pertinent numbers.

I saw an interview from a doctor from the university of Washington yesterday declaring the pandemic in the US is all but over. Whether that's the case or not, of course remains to be seen.
 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 11, 2020, 10:11:54 AM
Yes GQ, it ain't over till it's over.

I'm gonna sign off here and spend the Easter weekend with family. 

Enjoy yours as well.  Many are not so lucky these days.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 11, 2020, 10:12:43 AM
Happy Easter!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on April 11, 2020, 11:26:57 AM
Happy Easter!

Happy Easter,

At my house we will celebrate it twice 

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 11, 2020, 11:34:12 AM
It’s a beautiful spring day in LA. All the birds are out singing and masked people are slowly walking about however scarce.

Enjoy your Easter, Bill!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 11, 2020, 01:34:26 PM
Happy Easter,

At my house we will celebrate it twice

Same here.

Wife insisted on cleaning house and making me clean all my stuff (mostly mail items) off the dining room table.

I told her this wasn't even her Easter, but she still insisted.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 11, 2020, 09:11:20 PM
Same here.

Wife insisted on cleaning house and making me clean all my stuff (mostly mail items) off the dining room table.

I told her this wasn't even her Easter, but she still insisted.

My wife cleaned house thoroughly today. She made me clean up my man cave.


Indigenous people everywhere may not fair well if the coronavirus comes their way. If I remember correctly, around 90% of Indians died from White man's diseases.

http://www.time24.news/i/2020/04/15-year-old-yanomami-indian-dies-in-roraima-after-6-days-in-the-icu-roraima-2.html

I don't watch right wing media and although I've been bashing left wing media for their handling and deception about the coronavirus crisis, I watch the video below and seen a lot of right wing media been very wrong about the virus too. They should get better experts to get their info from next time. Liberals will love the video below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAh4uS4f78o
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 12, 2020, 07:26:58 AM

What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.

This may turn out to be the classic mother-of-all over-reaction.
I haven't missed a day of work, haven't shut down my shop for 30 seconds.  I'm from Missouri the "Show me State".  In addition, I guess I'm prepared to die if that is what it comes down to....although I'm practicing social distancing as best as I can.    On the downside, my household is running low on TP so there is a chance I may have to raid Trenchcoat or Billyb's stockpiles. 

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 12, 2020, 07:28:29 AM

Despite the 500,000 confirmed infection, with < 20,000 deaths, hard to believed it paralyzed our nation to a halt if you consider seasonal flu kills more of us on literally any given year (http://www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html).


So far.  One day after your post, your < 20,000 is > 20,000. 

It's not over.  Its over when we have a vaccine or an effective treatment method.  Until then, we will have an endemic level of COVID-19 just as we have an endemic level of flu.  IMO the endemic level of COVID-19 will cause as many deaths on an annual basis as seasonal flu.   Maybe more deaths, given that COVID is more contagious and the populations most vulnerable to flu and COVID are the same.   

If COVID-19 is indeed an endemic disease that will not go away, it means that eventually all of us will become infected.   


Quote
What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.

You are correct.  But there is more.   

Its all about perceived risk rather than actual scientific risk.  Perception of risk is dependent upon 1) history/experience (as you mentioned), 2) whether the encounter is voluntary or involuntary, 3) consequences, 4) the length of time from the encounter to consequences, and 5) public attention.     

For example, some idiots voluntarily smoke tobacco even though tobacco is known to both initiate and promote cancer as well as impair heart health, the two largest causes of death.       

Seasonal flu has been with us for eons.  COVID-19 is brand new.  With regard to flu we voluntarily go about our lives  doing little more than taking a flu vaccine and avoiding obviously sick people.    Is COVID-19  scientifically more virulent than flu in terms of transmissibility and fatality ratio?  Somewhat, but I contend not to the degree perceived by the public, a perception exacerbated by  the national attention given to it.  And that is driving public policy. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 12, 2020, 07:30:19 AM

Indigenous people everywhere may not fair well if the coronavirus comes their way. If I remember correctly, around 90% of Indians died from White man's diseases.

 
The "White man" paid an enormous price in blood from past pandemics that circulated throughout Europe.  The ones that survived passed on some strong survival genes.  Indigenous populations from other regions may not see the same benefit from these genes and may be more susceptible to virus's like this. 

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 12, 2020, 07:33:48 AM

For example, some idiots voluntarily smoke tobacco even though tobacco is known to both initiate and promote cancer as well as impair heart health, the two largest causes of death.       
..and other 'idiots' will play golf and get excessive sun exposure despite knowing the sun can cause skin cancer.    I'd say let the 'idiots' do what they enjoy without labeling them 'idiots'. 

Fathertime!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 07:45:50 AM

So far.  One day after your post, your < 20,000 is > 20,000. 

I was going to raise this - THE most crassly stupid post I've read on here, tomorrow ..


But as you noticed GQB's howler, too ..

Did 'we' have to stay indoors when the flu' was raging....?  No ...   IMPOSSIBLE to know what would have / what will happen - given US / UK  numbers are still increasing ..   

When I read IDIOT's say, "see, the 'models of doom' were exaggerated" one HAS to wonder ...   are they trolling or that THICK?









Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 12, 2020, 08:17:29 AM
I was going to raise this - THE most crassly stupid post I've read on here, tomorrow ..

R-E-L-A-X.  You exaggerate.  Howler?  No.

The curve is flattening, yet each day of course will increase the cumulative total, but still not 4x nor 3x seasonal flu deaths, something we accept. 

GQ's point whether precise or not is the focus of deciding what public policy to follow now that most people have been scared shitless.

 

Quote
When I read IDIOT's say, "see, the 'models of doom' were exaggerated" one HAS to wonder ...   are they trolling or that THICK?

I am missing your point.  The models as originally designed did overstate the number of deaths, the number of ventilators needed, etc.  The models have now been recalibrated. 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 12, 2020, 08:20:01 AM
IMO the endemic level of COVID-19 will cause as many deaths on an annual basis as seasonal flu.   Maybe more deaths, given that COVID is more contagious and the populations most vulnerable to flu and COVID are the same.   

If COVID-19 is indeed an endemic disease that will not go away, it means that eventually all of us will become infected.   


In the last few days,  COVID-19 is killing 2000 Americans daily. That pace makes it the #1 killer of Americans and would kill 730,000 Americans a year. The flu kills 12,000-62,000 in any given year. Imagine if we did nothing and went about our lives as normal. COVID would easily kill millions if not tens of millions of Americans a year.

I posted a funny video showing right wing media severely underestimating the virus but in all fairness, we weren't hurting a month ago. In over a month and a half, from January 21 when our first case showed up to March 12 we had 1581 cases and 41 deaths. That is nothing compared to what the flu was doing to us in that period. Probably why left wing media sharply criticized Trump's European travel ban on March 12 and ban of travel from China in January. They and their expert sources underestimated the seriousness of this virus too.

So with closing schools, implementing stay at home orders and shutting down a good portion of the economy, in one month we went from 1581 cases to 534,494 cases and 41 deaths to 20,637 deaths. The numbers are climbing exponentially even with action taken against the virus. If one looked at the Chinese numbers, it wouldn't give the impression that this virus was so deadly and contagious. The news experts and their expert sources should've factored in China was lying and didn't allow independent organizations to observe what was going on in their country. Experts on China should've known the virus was much worse than they disclosed. With constant action against the virus, we won't allow the numbers to go up exponentially but without a vaccine, we have to continue to take action against the virus which means we will do nothing from time to time and probably have to wear masks when we go out.

If we all get infected, I predict tens of millions of Americans will die and hundreds of millions worldwide will die. By taking action to limit the spread, we can spread those deaths over time and keep our hospitals from getting overwhelmed. It has not been determined if we have an immunity to this coronavirus yet. It may be possible to get COVID-19 more than once and the level of severity may vary like it does with the common cold. Sometimes we barely notice we have a cold, sometimes it'll floor us.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 08:25:28 AM
R-E-L-A-X.  You exaggerate.  Howler?  No.

The curve is flattening,

SERIOUS Q :  on what data do you base this assertion .... I've just seen the deaths per nation graphs on the UK's govts latest BS to the nation ..

'We' are behind and paralleling France / Italy .. not good ..

The USA ... your curve... is akin to an Atlas Rocket exiting the atmosphere ((

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 12, 2020, 09:02:37 AM

So far.  One day after your post, your < 20,000 is > 20,000.

Absolutely. It will get even higher. It's the studied progress of the estimated 2-week lag progression of the disease. The death rate at >5% will still register daily counts until the 'critical from 'severe' from 'hospitalization' from 'infection' diminishes. The latter 4 stages however are being noted as on a downward scale.

Estimates ranges from 80-85% of those infected suffer only mild condition. Of the total infection, only >5% are hospitalized. 5% of that number die of complications brought on by, or because of, COVID. Comorbidity is still up for debate since this disease seem to kill those with compromised health condition, or those of advanced ages.

But these numbers are not correct either for no other reason than, so far people only get tested when they show symptoms. If we somehow knew how many are actually 'infected', symptomatic or asymptomatic, then the relevant numbers from hospitalization to death will make these relationship percentages even lower. *Possibly* making this virus a lot less virulent than we have given it credit for.

From CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm)

Quote
During March 1–30, underlying medical conditions and symptoms at admission were reported through COVID-NET for approximately 180 (12.1%) hospitalized adults (Table); 89.3% had one or more underlying conditions. The most commonly reported were hypertension (49.7%), obesity (48.3%), chronic lung disease (34.6%), diabetes mellitus (28.3%), and cardiovascular disease (27.8%). Among patients aged 18–49 years, obesity was the most prevalent underlying condition, followed by chronic lung disease (primarily asthma) and diabetes mellitus. Among patients aged 50–64 years, obesity was most prevalent, followed by hypertension and diabetes mellitus; and among those aged ≥65 years, hypertension was most prevalent, followed by cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. Among 33 females aged 15–49 years hospitalized with COVID-19, three (9.1%) were pregnant. Among 167 patients with available data, the median interval from symptom onset to admission was 7 days (interquartile range [IQR] = 3–9 days). The most common signs and symptoms at admission included cough (86.1%), fever or chills (85.0%), and shortness of breath (80.0%). Gastrointestinal symptoms were also common; 26.7% had diarrhea, and 24.4% had nausea or vomiting.

If relevant, the H1N1 fatality rate worldwide had a range of 150,000 - 500,000 dead worldwide. BC mentioned in Italy, they're doing (or had started doing) posthumously determining actual cause of death. My point is, current COVID death count may in fact be inflated, or at the least, stands to scrutiny as H1N1.

Quote
It's not over.  Its over when we have a vaccine or an effective treatment method.  Until then, we will have an endemic level of COVID-19 just as we have an endemic level of flu.  IMO the endemic level of COVID-19 will cause as many deaths on an annual basis as seasonal flu.   Maybe more deaths, given that COVID is more contagious and the populations most vulnerable to flu and COVID are the same.

The R0 of COVID is currently estimated at 2+. Influenza A and Influenza B is at 1+, but this is with administration of vaccine on an annual basis. Without this vaccine, the infection rate will likely be on the same threshold COVID is. Despite the availability of the vaccine, it still kill thousands of people every year. Covid will not be any different in this regard even IF we develop a vaccine or therapy drug.

Quote
If COVID-19 is indeed an endemic disease that will not go away, it means that eventually all of us will become infected.

The only thing I've read so far that may be different with COVID is that it is 'stable'. Studies at this time shows it doesn't mutate as rapidly as the other strains of corona viruses. Will it be endemic? That's almost a guarantee. However, based on the studies I mentioned, it may not be as pervasive as Influenza A/B.   

Quote
You are correct.  But there is more.   

Its all about perceived risk rather than actual scientific risk.  Perception of risk is dependent upon 1) history/experience (as you mentioned), 2) whether the encounter is voluntary or involuntary, 3) consequences, 4) the length of time from the encounter to consequences, and 5) public attention.     

For example, some idiots voluntarily smoke tobacco even though tobacco is known to both initiate and promote cancer as well as impair heart health, the two largest causes of death.

Exactly.       

Quote
Seasonal flu has been with us for eons.  COVID-19 is brand new.  With regard to flu we voluntarily go about our lives  doing little more than taking a flu vaccine and avoiding obviously sick people.    Is COVID-19  scientifically more virulent than flu in terms of transmissibility and fatality ratio? Somewhat, but I contend not to the degree perceived by the public, a perception exacerbated by  the national attention given to it.  And that is driving public policy.

I completely agree with the bolded part. At present, it seems the more we know about the virus, the more it seems we've over-estimated its virulence judging from the failed models previously presented. It isn't to say this is not of a major concern, but as all the other virulent viruses of the past - this, too will come to pass in the same fashion. Just MHO.

I posted this thought to begin discussion about the biggest issue of today - when/how/what do we need to do and understand to get our societies back to normalcy, or is that even possible given what we know as of today?

Note: The 'post' wasn't posted to give those who falsely think more of themselves, otherwise repeatedly proven to the contrary, another reason to further validate the obvious.
Title: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: 2tallbill on April 12, 2020, 09:04:30 AM


Roseland Hospital phlebotomist: 30% of those tested have coronavirus antibody

“A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus
but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,”

http://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 09:16:48 AM

Roseland Hospital phlebotomist: 30% of those tested have coronavirus antibody

“A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus
but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,”

http://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

OR

1/ There were / are asymptomatic

2/ The tests are faulty

3/ There is some 'suggestion' ... too early to confirm   / that is IS possible to get 'it' again,  (but another mutated strain) ?

http://nypost.com/2020/04/07/51-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-south-korea/

There are so many stories flying around...




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 12, 2020, 09:40:13 AM
At present, it seems the more we know about the virus, the more it seems we've over-estimated its virulence judging from the failed models previously presented. It isn't to say this is not of a major concern, but as all the other virulent viruses of the past - this, too will come to pass in the same fashion. Just MHO.


When America had 6 cases and zero deaths, Trump cut off China. When we had 38 deaths, Trump cut off most of Europe. We are not dealing with the flu. We are dealing with the virus of the century that has a case fatality rate worse than the Spanish flu, the virus of century last century. Most of the models have been wrong simply because we've taken action or we have bad data. It is political suicide for leaders to report bad news so we are seeing a massive amount of underreporting of deaths. With bad data, it's hard to create a good model.

Data and models may not tell the full truth but what we do know is hospitals can handle births, flus, colds, other illnesses and physical injuries of their community. One COVID-19 outbreak overloads hospitals, destroys the medical community and ruins the economy. A few days ago Italy reported 80 doctors dead, 20 nurses dead, and 12,000 medical personnel infected in their 6 week battle with COVID-19. No medical community can sustain those kinds of losses in that short amount of time. It takes years to replace a medical professional. Until a vaccine is created, we must take faster action against outbreaks so they don't overwhelm our medical community. It will save lives but at a cost to our economies.

UK pledges $248 million to WHO and charities.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-pledges-200-million-pounds-in-aid-to-help-stop-second-coronavirus-wave/ar-BB12uzUl?ocid=spartanntp

Singapore has a spike in cases. They are now getting tougher on people who break the rules pertaining to social distancing and masks.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/singapore-gets-stricter-on-enforcement-to-curb-spread-of-virus/ar-BB12tJud?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 09:52:57 AM
My point is, current COVID death count may in fact be inflated

When in all likelihood it's WAY down on official figures in most countries, due to:

1/  time ... taken to report

2/ not testing reason for death - esp if patient is old




Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 10:13:57 AM
BillyB doesn't trust China's numbers ...

Who trusts Belarus' reports ?


http://eng.belta.by/society/view/cardiovascular-disease-named-leading-cause-of-death-in-belarus-in-january-march-129689-2020/ (http://eng.belta.by/society/view/cardiovascular-disease-named-leading-cause-of-death-in-belarus-in-january-march-129689-2020/)

10 APRIL 2020, 13:53
Cardiovascular disease named leading cause of death in Belarus in January-March


It MAY even be true .... for now ...

Lukashoudgo and his denial .. 'reports' that Doctors cannot say someone died of 'Korona' .. they 'die' of .... heart failure ...

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 12, 2020, 10:29:30 AM
BillyB doesn't trust China's numbers ...

Who trusts Belarus' reports ?


http://eng.belta.by/society/view/cardiovascular-disease-named-leading-cause-of-death-in-belarus-in-january-march-129689-2020/ (http://eng.belta.by/society/view/cardiovascular-disease-named-leading-cause-of-death-in-belarus-in-january-march-129689-2020/)

10 APRIL 2020, 13:53
Cardiovascular disease named leading cause of death in Belarus in January-March


It MAY even be true .... for now ...

Lukashoudgo and his denial .. 'reports' that Doctors cannot say someone died of 'Korona' .. they 'die' of .... heart failure ...

I already reported that relative of my wife's friend, who is MD in Belarus, stated that they are not allowed to put Corona on death certificate as cause of death.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 12, 2020, 10:33:06 AM
When America had 6 cases and zero deaths, Trump cut off China. When we had 38 deaths, Trump cut off most of Europe. We are not dealing with the flu. We are dealing with the virus of the century that has a case fatality rate worse than the Spanish flu, the virus of century last century. Most of the models have been wrong simply because we've taken action or we have bad data. It is political suicide for leaders to report bad news so we are seeing a massive amount of underreporting of deaths. With bad data, it's hard to create a good model.

They also resorted to 'social-spacing' during the 1917-1918 Spanish flu, Billy. Just as with the current 'pandemic', not knowing what it is that's killing us, makes it that much more threatening. Speed driving, smoking, drinking/driving, drug use, etc...also kills a whole lot of us, but people still do it despite knowing the inevitable.

Millions of people still refuse to get their flu shots every year despite knowing the consequence and the hundreds of thousands that die because of the flu every year.

The models were wrong not because of 'bad' data. They were wrong because of 'no' data.

There are NO underreporting of COVID-19 deaths, at least not in the US. We are here in the US so just leave the discussion to 'here'. You're not in China, Italy or Timbuktu so you would have no idea what's going on there. Don't be the site's usual idiots that try and do that.

At this time, if there's a dead person found at home, and that person tested positive of coronavirus - at the present time, the death is classified as 'died of COVID-19'.

Like I keep saying, comorbidity has become a subject of debate in these death rates. The very vast majority who had so far succumb to the condition, a lot of questions are being raised as to whether or not it is accurate to report the cause of death are by COVID-19 considering the underlying health conditions of many of the people who perished. For example, a person with heightened coronary disease who unfortunately contracted COVID, then suffers a heart attack and died. Was it the virus that killed the person, or the person's heart condition that ultimately failed him?

The very vast majority of people who only suffered mild condition also happens to NOT have compromised health conditions. This is currently a debate ongoing with the medical community. You certainly can have your opinion on this matter..

Quote
Data and models may not tell the full truth but what we do know is hospitals can handle births, flus, colds, other illnesses and physical injuries of their community. One COVID-19 outbreak overloads hospitals, destroys the medical community and ruins the economy. A few days ago Italy reported 80 doctors dead, 20 nurses dead, and 12,000 medical personnel infected in their 6 week battle with COVID-19. No medical community can sustain those kinds of losses in that short amount of time. It takes years to replace a medical professional. Until a vaccine is created, we must take faster action against outbreaks so they don't overwhelm our medical community. It will save lives but at a cost to our economies.

I don't care about Italy or timbuktu in this discussion. Neither of us are currently in Italy. Again, leave that type of talk to the site's idiots.

As for the rest of your post above, think *surcharge* It's a 'novel virus'. A new disease. One case of hospitalization to one million cases is one to one million hospitalized person ADDED to the current load. So anytime there's an unforeseen disease spread or an epidemic, it will be a burden that can easily surpass any given set contingency. More times than not it is simply because of the 'unknown' nature of the disease that we are prone to over-emphasize the urgency. No one knows the limitations, hence, we tend to change our behaviors and over-react.

You just laid witness to what happened in YOUR state. They never even used FEMA's hospital beds setup in your convention center. Mercy ship in California only had 11 patients on a 1,000 beds available. NY, barely used Comfort, nor did it even needed the 4 field hospitals that were setup to handle the overflow.

The biggest problem with any pandemic/epidemic is people's overly impulsive behavioral reaction to it. Maybe that's just human nature, dunno...

Quote
UK pledges $248 million to WHO and charities.


N/A

Quote
Singapore has a spike in cases. They are now getting tougher on people who break the rules pertaining to social distancing and masks.

N/A
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 12, 2020, 11:05:15 AM
Anyway, to try and continue the discussion about what can we do to try and get our society back in the midst of the current pandemic, there will be protocols many of us will be required to do.

Last Friday, management decided to give everyone a day off, and principal staff convene and met to try and see if we can streamline our company going forward.

Our field staff: We've developed a very comprehensive response programs, including a 1-2-3 buddy-system. We are designating to make sure crews consist of the same people as much as possible. If in the event someone gets relocated or designated to new project location, it will be followed by strict documentation and must be reported and validated by the project foreman and the region's safety personnel. Contact containment.

We are also highlighting, then requesting, employees with known/diagnosed underlying health condition to begin working from home until further notice. This mainly affects the general office personnel. There already are 3 employees that are already working from home as of week's end.

Our safety director will try to obtain information how to either acquire, or get services thereof, from Abbott's Rapid Testing test kits. It is our ultimate objective to get everyone tested sooner than later.

BillyB, what about you folks up there in Washington, what are you guys doing up north?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 12, 2020, 11:43:21 AM
In the last few days,  COVID-19 is killing 2000 Americans daily. That pace makes it the #1 killer of Americans and would kill 730,000 Americans a year. The flu kills 12,000-62,000 in any given year.

You are comparing a few consecutive days of statistics to years and years of statistics for flu.  And those flu statistics are concentrated each year over about 5 months.  Short interval stats will normalize over time. 
 
This virus is not going away even with mitigation.    So, Billy, how safe is "safe" by your standards?   Zero, 100, 1000 deaths per day?   

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 12, 2020, 11:50:09 AM

The USA ... your curve... is akin to an Atlas Rocket exiting the atmosphere ((

You sound very certain.  Today US cases stand at about 550,000 and deaths at 22,000.   What do you  predict by June 30?   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 12:50:15 PM
I already reported that relative of my wife's friend, who is MD in Belarus, stated that they are not allowed to put Corona on death certificate as cause of death.

I know.. sorry, I should have made it clear ..I trust your source...and used it
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 12:51:40 PM
You sound very certain.  Today US cases stand at about 550,000 and deaths at 22,000.   What do you  predict by June 30?

You are behind us in the curve.. hence the certainty ..no idea of the numbers...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 01:14:26 PM
I like your Dr Fauci

Next time you hear 'Trampu' referring to his teams of experts, will a reporter ask .. Why don't you listen to them ?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52264860 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52264860)

"We make a recommendation," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, when asked by @JakeTapper about reports that he and other top officials called for social distancing in February. "Often the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it's not. But it is what it is. We are where we are right now."


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 12, 2020, 01:52:33 PM
Odd thing seen in LA: homeless people wearing face masks. Yes, you have to see one to see the oddity of it.

Bumper sticker: I survived shopping at Ralph's
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 12, 2020, 02:42:57 PM
Who trusts Belarus' reports ?


I don't trust any numbers from that part of the world. Right now Ukraine said 83 people died. My MIL, a retired doctor, is living in Ivano Frankivsk and talks to doctors there and in that city alone, there are 70 dead from COVID-19. What the doctors report and what politicians report are two different things.

simply because of the 'unknown' nature of the disease that we are prone to over-emphasize the urgency. No one knows the limitations, hence, we tend to change our behaviors and over-react.


I'm not so sure about that the over reacting. China miscalculated big time. They have a habit of not reporting new viruses and plagues and most of the time they contain them but this time they failed. Italy, Spain and NY misjudged the virus by a week or so and it's costing them dearly. France and UK may have misjudged too. Most nations under reporting deaths can claim they didn't misjudge.

BillyB, what about you folks up there in Washington, what are you guys doing up north?


Some construction projects shut down completely and some are going. One project I'm working on is a swimming pool for a city's community center. They decided to restart the project even with the stay at home order. I'm not sure why a swimming pool is essential but I'm pretty sure not a lot of people will attend it's grand opening in a few months. The project is streamlined. Only a few people are allowed outside from each company at a time. Sub contractor meetings are done outside instead of the job shack. Only one person is allowed in a room at any given time. All employees have the option to refuse to work during this crisis.

You are comparing a few consecutive days of statistics to years and years of statistics for flu.  And those flu statistics are concentrated each year over about 5 months.  Short interval stats will normalize over time. 
 
This virus is not going away even with mitigation.    So, Billy, how safe is "safe" by your standards?   Zero, 100, 1000 deaths per day?   


The virus isn't the flu and the spread in hot areas of the world continue. Without action more than 2000 Americans will die everyday and of course it will climb exponentially. We have take action because this is the most dangerous pathogen by far humanity had to deal with in the last 100+ years. This is a fact. We do not need to let the virus run its course to watch how truly dangerous it is so we need to slow it down now. With enough action, the number of deaths will go down but the current action taken is crippling our economy. Herd immunity strategy is not guaranteed since we don't know if we even have an immunity to the virus after acquiring it.

What is safe? The least amount of deaths and suffering as possible. I can't put a number on that yet.  Deaths are going to happen so what course do we take that allows the least amount of deaths and suffering? We have not seen any models showing death and suffering increasing as our economy tanks and unemployment rises. Trump has seen them and he has factored them into his decisions. As we sacrifice our economy to limit the spread, save lives, and ease the burden on the medical community, we will see job losses that can result in increased suicides, starvation, homelessness, riots, crime, and other things that will deteriorate society.

Right now the government has the money to keep people on unemployment, keep businesses from going bankrupt, supply food to low income families, and pay people to stay home. That won't last forever so governments will eventually have to make some hard decisions. Our government would probably be the last government on earth to collapse. A few weeks ago 90 countries applied for loans at the IMF(International Monetary Fund) to use to help their economies while fighting the virus. America has the most money to loan at the IMF so America will may decide the fate of other nations. The destruction of the world's economies do not benefit us. A 20% unemployment rate can't keep us afloat forever and certainly we won't be able to carry half the world for long. As nations collapse, there will be increased chances that war will break out. There are a few leaders in this world that will exploit the weakness of their neighbors. There are many factors that need to be considered to keep deaths and suffering to a minimum. Trump is in the driver's seat. We may never find a vaccine and never beat the virus but Trump still needs to keep the world from coming unglued. He has a monumental load on his shoulders. Even if one doesn't like Trump, they should hope he comes out of this crises a hero. The world's future may be bleak if he fails.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 12, 2020, 06:22:32 PM

"We make a recommendation," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, when asked by @JakeTapper about reports that he and other top officials called for social distancing in February. "Often the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it's not. But it is what it is. We are where we are right now."

Tony said more than that, much more, knowing that somebody besides an immunologist should answer the question how safe is "safe," especially given the economic and social tradeoffs inherent in such decision making.       
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 12, 2020, 08:58:19 PM
Tony said more than that, much more, knowing that somebody besides an immunologist should answer the question how safe is "safe," especially given the economic and social tradeoffs inherent in such decision making.     

Hopefully, the time will come when those who worried about the economics costs will pay with their jobs.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 13, 2020, 08:16:30 AM
Hopefully, the time will come when those who worried about the economics costs will pay with their jobs.

Is the question how safe is "safe" a medical or socioeconomic question?

I wonder if those who contend Tony Fauci should be making this decision would also support having a military general and not the President be the Commander-in-Chief.  MacArthur had a superb military record yet was relieved by Truman because he promoted a wider war with China, a war that could become nuclear and lead to WWIII.  Truman's popularity dipped to the lowest in history of any serving President, and he decided not to run for re-election.   

Of course, whether Trump keeps his job depends in part upon public health as well as the economy.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 13, 2020, 08:25:43 AM
I wonder if those who contend Tony Fauci should be making this decision would also support having a military general and not the President be the Commander-in-Chief.  MacArthur had a superb military record yet was relieved by Truman because he promoted a wider war with China, a war that could become nuclear and lead to WWIII.  Truman's popularity dipped to the lowest in history of any serving President, and he decided not to run for re-election.   


I don't know how people felt about Truman back then but MacArthur wanting more action in China and Patton wanted to go into Russia. After WWII, many people were eager for peace but the Communists were very active. If America beat the Soviets and the spread of Communism, would more lives be saved, less suffering in the world, and the world be more peaceful in the end?

People are focused on just the virus but Trump has a bigger job than just the virus and that is to maintain stability and peace around the world while battling the virus.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 13, 2020, 08:32:55 AM
Is the question how safe is "safe" a medical or socioeconomic question?

Come on, Phil - no need to prove you're being obtuse..

I wonder if those who contend Tony Fauci should be making this decision would also support having a military general and not the President be the Commander-in-Chief.  MacArthur had a superb military record yet was relieved by Truman because he promoted a wider war with China, a war that could become nuclear and lead to WWIII.  Truman's popularity dipped to the lowest in history of any serving President, and he decided not to run for re-election.   

Churchill got 'rewarded' for his WWII role by being booted out of office ..   IF you are asking, "what is the point of having a team of experts around ", as Trmpu' claims ..then IGNORING the advice of Dr Fauci .. you'd HAVE a  point ...

Of course, whether Trump keeps his job depends in part upon public health as well as the economy.

But he's 'running' the show, now ....


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 13, 2020, 10:07:53 AM
If America beat the Soviets and the spread of Communism....

The point is the military equivalent of Tony Fauci should not decide whether to invade the CCCP or Red China.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 13, 2020, 10:33:03 AM
Come on, Phil - no need to prove you're being obtuse..

Such a response identifies you as the obtuse one.  You are deliberately being slow.  The question of how safe is "safe" is exactly the question, and  the answer will involve tradeoffs.    It is such a perplexing decision that you will not begin to write a substantive answer.   

If we stay in lockdown, as your criticism of Trump suggests, until all leading medical doctors say it is "safe" to go back to work, you will not see SC  until maybe mid-2021.     

Quote
IF you are asking, "what is the point of having a team of experts around ", as Trmpu' claims ..then IGNORING the advice of Dr Fauci .. you'd HAVE a  point ...
 

Trump synthesizes the opinions of Fauci and many other scientists, economists, etc.  Trump even listens to people like you (those who look only in the rearview mirror), and he answers their questions , e. g., Jim Acosta at the briefings.   

Quote
But he's 'running' the show, now ....

Yes, isn't it great!!!!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 13, 2020, 11:09:39 AM
Churchill got 'rewarded' for his WWII role by being booted out of office ..   IF you are asking, "what is the point of having a team of experts around ", as Trmpu' claims ..then IGNORING the advice of Dr Fauci .. you'd HAVE a  point ...

This, from the guy who believes global warming caused by man is causing long, dry spell in desert areas. I doubt Trump cares about any opinion coming from such characters who harbor such idiotic opinion.

Dr. Fauci, the trumpeted *EXPERT* declared late February that the US have nothing to worry about this pandemic. It changed shortly thereafter. He followed that up by giving us a whole bunch of overly-estimated models which proved way out of the ballpark. He earned a nice fortune cookie for these wonderful declarations so far.

The lastest grim estimate of dead Americans is now adjusted to 60,000! Yeay! That would put us right smack on par with 2017, 2018 seasonal flu death counts.

This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 13, 2020, 12:00:35 PM
This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.

That's what we said about the Iraq war also a decade ago.  Problem is we didn't have an exit strategy.  Ditto with this virus, so far no exit strategy.  Lemme tell ya, it's very tenacious.

Don't be fooled by the graphs, there are weekend lulls, guess some labs are taking weekends off. Is possible deaths on weekends are underreported as well.  My gut feeling it'll be another 6 weeks before we (in the US) note with confidence a fall in numbers of new infections which is the first indicator that should trend down.  What happens 'afterwards' can be a prolonged process as well along with risks of rebound across the nation.

I think Cuomo said it best.  http://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/13/new-york-gov-cuomo-on-coronavirus-i-believe-the-worst-is-over-if-we-continue-to-be-smart.html

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 13, 2020, 12:00:42 PM

This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.

But what about info that Billy posted indicating that corona will cause lasting physical and mental damage to those who contract it and survive ?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 13, 2020, 01:17:58 PM
The point is the military equivalent of Tony Fauci should not decide whether to invade the CCCP or Red China.

Yes, the President gets to decide after listening to all the experts around him. Half the world is extremely upset that Trump gets to decide.

Dr. Fauci, the trumpeted *EXPERT* declared late February that the US have nothing to worry about this pandemic. It changed shortly thereafter. He followed that up by giving us a whole bunch of overly-estimated models which proved way out of the ballpark. He earned a nice fortune cookie for these wonderful declarations so far.


Fauci also echoed WHO advising against travel restrictions.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 13, 2020, 01:18:57 PM
That's what we said about the Iraq war also a decade ago.  Problem is we didn't have an exit strategy.  Ditto with this virus, so far no exit strategy.  Lemme tell ya, it's very tenacious.

I am reminded about a moment during an Iraq war briefing where Donald Rumsfed was asked if WMDs actually existed since they haven't found any, in which he replied,"We haven't found Saddam Hussein either, but it doesn't mean he doesn't exist!"

Saddam, Rumsfeld and Iraq is totally irrelevant..but I get your 'meaning'...

Quote
Don't be fooled by the graphs, there are weekend lulls, guess some labs are taking weekends off. Is possible deaths on weekends are underreported as well.  My gut feeling it'll be another 6 weeks before we (in the US) note with confidence a fall in numbers of new infections which is the first indicator that should trend down.  What happens 'afterwards' can be a prolonged process as well along with risks of rebound across the nation.

I stopped looking at graphs, BC. So far, the only thing it proves to this point is, it gets a daily update which means what you're looking at, or relying on, today means nothing. It's guaranteed to change tomorrow anyway. That fact has been what is consistent so far.

Quote
I think Cuomo said it best.  http://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/13/new-york-gov-cuomo-on-coronavirus-i-believe-the-worst-is-over-if-we-continue-to-be-smart.html

The only thing that proves about Cuomo is he's a true politician. There will not be a politician that is stupid enough to not mince those exact same words if asked for their opinion. Under the present circumstances, no doubt movement will be tiered, it'll be phased, measured/calculated. Trump wasn't kidding when he said this will be the single most difficult decision he will ever have to make so far. It's a *damned if you do, and damned if you don't* type of decision. A modicum of success under a thick, triple layer of failure REGARDLESS of which path he takes. This will largely be Trump's legacy going forward.

Since the shutdown, 300% rise on suicide rates, DV increased, Opioid deaths spiraling. Not to mention the desperation of those struck down by this pandemic on the economic scale of this problem. The country needs to move forward.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 13, 2020, 01:25:54 PM
But what about info that Billy posted indicating that corona will cause lasting physical and mental damage to those who contract it and survive ?

Without sounding insensitive, but sorry...the very vast majority of those who suffered or died from this infection aren't exactly the cream of the crop health-wise to begin with.

So it isn't like they recovered and survived the virus and all of the sudden they also got rid of obesity, diabetes, coronary ailment, pneumonia, hypertension, black lungs, etc...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 13, 2020, 01:34:03 PM
That's what we said about the Iraq war also a decade ago.  Problem is we didn't have an exit strategy.  Ditto with this virus, so far no exit strategy.  Lemme tell ya, it's very tenacious.

I agree. COVID-19 in the US will decline from the currently peaking epidemic levels to an endemic level.  Some locales could even experience another peak.   In other words, the virus will not "exit," and over the next few years perhaps 80% of the population will have been infected.  Accept it. 


Quote
Don't be fooled by the graphs, there are weekend lulls, guess some labs are taking weekends off.

The weekend pattern is not seen in Florida data, which I follow closely for my county, another county nearby, and even my postal zip code.   There are lows and highs, with the low numbers occurring on Tuesday-Wednesday.  Statewide data for 21 million population (about 1/3 of Italy's) are below: 

Date     Σ Tests   Δ Tests      Σ +'s     Δ +'s

23-Mar    13,094                1,171    
24-Mar    16,046     2,952     1,467     296
25-Mar    27,539     11,493     2,355     888
26-Mar    29,114     1,575     2,484     129
27-Mar    32,983     3,869     2,900     416
28-Mar    43,071     10,088     4,038     1,138
29-Mar    50,528     7,457     4,950     912
30-Mar    56,702     6,174     5,704     754
31-Mar    64,661     7,959     6,741     1,037
1-Apr    69,265     4,604     7,793     1,052
2-Apr    80,356     11,091     9,008     1,215
3-Apr    95,835     15,479     10,268     1,260
4-Apr    107,313     11,478     11,545     1,277
5-Apr    116,898     9,585     12,350     805
6-Apr    126,048     9,150     13,629     1,279
7-Apr    139,669     13,621     14,747     1,118
8-Apr    143,707     4,038     15,698     951
9-Apr    156,852     13,145     16,826     1,128
10-Apr    165,686     8,834     17,968     1,142
11-Apr    175,834     10,148     18,986     1,018
12-Apr    185,520     9,686     19,895     909

Quote
My gut feeling it'll be another 6 weeks before we (in the US) note with confidence a fall in numbers of new infections which is the first indicator that should trend down. 

The number of daily new cases in Florida has remained relatively flat even as the number of daily tests reached its peak.  Florida's lockdown was not stringent, e. g., the Governor declared religious services were essential. 

Our hospitalizations peaked four days ago; however, the numbers are too small to be confident about identifying a trend.  Nothing suggests we have to wait six weeks for smaller  numbers of new infections. 



          TOTAL   DAILY
DATE   HOSP.   HOSP.
      
28-Mar    567    
29-Mar    633    66
30-Mar    715    82
31-Mar    857    142
1-Apr    990    133
2-Apr    1,167    177
3-Apr    1,334    167
4-Apr    1,470    136
5-Apr    1,555    85
6-Apr    1,719    164
7-Apr    1,893    174
8-Apr    2,082    189
9-Apr    2,298    216
10-Apr    2,496    198
11-Apr    2,607    111
12-Apr    2,672    65



Quote
What happens 'afterwards' can be a prolonged process as well along with risks of rebound across the nation.

Yes
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 13, 2020, 01:43:53 PM
….So it isn't like they recovered and survived the virus and all of the sudden they also got rid of obesity, diabetes, coronary ailment, pneumonia, hypertension, black lungs, etc...

Which now brings me to this new point...

There's another slant one can surmise when one looks at the daily/total fatalities in any COVID update report/s.

Does the number of deaths in each country/region gives you a glimpse at the makeshift of any particular societies?

Is the fact that the infection rate in the US is nearly 3.5 times more than Italy's, yet the US death rate is almost at par with them - actually suggests Italy's citizens are more prone to be cigarette smokers compared to the US?

Is the fact that while black Americans represent only 18% of NY's population, but is overly represented in the death counts (33%+) because blacks generally have a higher obesity (diabetes, hypertension, smokes, etc) rate than non-Hispanic white Americans?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 13, 2020, 01:59:04 PM
the very vast majority of those who suffered or died from this infection aren't exactly the cream of the crop health-wise to begin with.


The study says those with mild or severe cases of COVID-19 can acquire damage to their organs and they may need lifetime medical care. It doesn't say healthy people are immune to organ damage. Most people will survive COVID-19 but it doesn't mean their medical needs stop there. The extra needs will be a burden on our economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-infection-may-cause-lasting-220307511.html

It's a good read. Here's some from the article.

“COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disorder,” said Dr. Harlan Krumholtz, a cardiologist at Yale University. “It can affect the heart, the liver, the kidneys, the brain, the endocrine system and the blood system.”

Still, doctors are worried that in its wake, some organs whose function has been knocked off kilter will not recover quickly, or completely. That could leave patients more vulnerable for months or years to come.

Another question that could take years to answer is whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 may lie dormant in the body for years and spring back later in different form. It wouldn't be the first virus to behave that way.


Governments can't dismiss this as if it's no more dangerous than the flu. They can advertise by putting out data showing it's not bad to prevent panic though. Governments need to go after this thing as if it is the pathogen of the century. Fortunately for us, they have gone after it as if it is the pathogen of the century.

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 13, 2020, 02:35:18 PM
BillyB-

Again, what I'm saying is the very vast majority of people succumbing to this virus are those with underlying health condition to begin with. It leaves to reason if drastic measures are taken to save their life, e.g. ventilator use, medication reaction, or further stress to an already compromise state, can and will only exacerbate an existing health condition.

If a person is administered tracheotomy, or intubation procedures then the likelihood of physical damage to the body is enhanced. Or if the person doesn't get adequate oxygen in its circulatory system, then there's a higher potentiality of organ failure.

The article is redundant, medically speaking, for the simple reason it is stating (or the doctor being quoted) what already is a reasonable course. Notice the ambiguity in the article.

It is these types of media reporting that is helping to make this virus far more frightening than the seasonal flu that had so far killed 3x more Americans every year. Consistently.

In certain circles, this can easily be classified as 'sensationalism'.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 13, 2020, 03:18:32 PM

Again, what I'm saying is the very vast majority of people succumbing to this virus are those with underlying health condition to begin with.

GQ, yes I think we all understand that those with underlying health conditions are the ones most likely to catch, recover badly, and die from corona.  No arguments there.

However, the words Billy quote seem to me to be applicable to very healthy people as well.

“COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disorder,” said Dr. Harlan Krumholtz, a cardiologist at Yale University. “It can affect the heart, the liver, the kidneys, the brain, the endocrine system and the blood system.”
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV - New reported US casualty now at 80,000!!!
Post by: GQBlues on April 13, 2020, 03:53:52 PM
New reported US casualty now at 80,000!!! Not of COVID, but of the seasonal flu in 2017.

Quote from: ML
However, the words Billy quote seem to me to be applicable to very healthy people as well.

“COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disorder,” said Dr. Harlan Krumholtz, a cardiologist at Yale University. “It can affect the heart, the liver, the kidneys, the brain, the endocrine system and the blood system.”

Respiratory system is the first casualty with the virus as it attacks both the ciliated and goblet cells. That leads to dead cells inciting blockages in the lungs which leads to pneumonia. But it is also reported that it also attacks the kidney and the spleen (which would leave the liver exposed for further compromise). Just like the SARS virus in this regard.

Both conditions triggers release of our immune system furthering damages to healthy tissues. Which, I would believe, is what the fatal complication being cited in the article. Is this unprecedented? No. Unabated, this happens with any other virulent viruses or bacterial epidemic. Moreover, it won't take long for organs to fail if the blood doesn't get properly oxygenated anyway.

My point is, healthy or otherwise, what's the *shocking* revelation in the article since this is the usual progression of such diseases. IMHO, of course. If in doubt, let's see how the likes of Rand Paul, Chris Cuomo, Boris Johnson, Tom Hanks, Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Durant, etc...progress with their recoveries.

In 2017, it was estimated that 80,000 Americans died of the flu that year. 80,000!!! LMAO! And we have vaccines for these. That was Trump's first year as POTUS! I don't remember any talk of social distancing, face mask, lockdowns, graphs, toilet paper hoarding, flight banning, etc...

but yeah - models did reared it's ugly head: The death rate apparently was an estimate based on modeling.

Quote
CDC officials do not have exact counts of how many people die from flu each year. Flu is so common that not all flu cases are reported, and flu is not always listed on death certificates. So the CDC uses statistical models, which are periodically revised, to make estimates.

CDC officials called the 80,000 figure preliminary, and it may be slightly revised. But they said it is not expected to go down.

Fatal complications from the flu can include pneumonia, stroke and heart attack.
http://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

The bolded part is another display of our imperfect science - comorbidity; that's currently being debated too.

All things in life is always a matter of perspective, I guess.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 13, 2020, 04:55:54 PM
In 2017, it was estimated that 80,000 Americans died of the flu that year. 80,000!!! LMAO! And we have vaccines for these. That was Trump's first year as POTUS! I don't remember any talk of social distancing, face mask, lockdowns, graphs, toilet paper hoarding, flight banning, etc...

but yeah - models did reared it's ugly head: The death rate apparently was an estimate based on modeling.
http://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/


No country pays much attention to the flu. All countries are taking this virus seriously so it's just not one leader of one country that is overestimating this virus. Trump didn't have models to work with in January. While the nation was busy with the impeachment, Trump paid attention to the shit show in China, their resistance to allow WHO and CDC inspectors to observe what his happening and he knows they BS big time and decided to ban travel from China in January. He knew this virus was extremely dangerous back in January and took action that shocked the world. He later shocked the world again banning travel from Europe. Our economy is going to suffer as long as this virus is around. It will suffer more and for much longer if many of those who survived COVID-19 have new health problems for life as doctors are predicting.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 13, 2020, 05:34:21 PM
I agree. COVID-19 in the US will decline from the currently peaking epidemic levels to an endemic level.  Some locales could even experience another peak.   In other words, the virus will not "exit," and over the next few years perhaps 80% of the population will have been infected.  Accept it.

Then what city will be the next NYC? Yours?  The number 1 moneymaker in FL is tourism.  Will tourists want to go there with a 'get used to it attitude'?  What percentage of that are from international tourists?  Will FL have to implement state income tax to cover the shortfall?  It is not that different here but I doubt the same approach would be applied.  Countries that can get a handle on the virus will be the future tourism hotspots.

Quote
The weekend pattern is not seen in Florida data, which I follow closely for my county, another county nearby, and even my postal zip code.   There are lows and highs, with the low numbers occurring on Tuesday-Wednesday.  Statewide data for 21 million population (about 1/3 of Italy's) are below: 

The number of daily new cases in Florida has remained relatively flat even as the number of daily tests reached its peak.  Florida's lockdown was not stringent, e. g., the Governor declared religious services were essential.

Our hospitalizations peaked four days ago; however, the numbers are too small to be confident about identifying a trend.  Nothing suggests we have to wait six weeks for smaller numbers of new infections. 

That is all fine and good!  Compliments! But how do you intend to keep it that way instead of being 'ripe' for the pickin' in viral terms with each inbound flight or carload of folks from the north?  How about all those cruise ships?

Can't we be smarter than this incredibly dumb virus that does not even have a brain?  Is rolling over and playing dead gonna work?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 13, 2020, 05:39:54 PM
Which now brings me to this new point...

As the data comes in and is analyzed, more will be known.  We sadly know very little at this point.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: calmissile on April 13, 2020, 05:46:28 PM
Am I misreading these reports?  Billy's statments imply that anyone that got the Covid-19 virus is going to suffer lasting damage to organs, etc.   My impression is that is only expected in those that have severe reactions to the virus and are on deaths doorstep.

Considering that many people contracting the virus have very mild symptoms, it seems illogical to me that they will have organ damage in the future.

Am I missing something?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 13, 2020, 05:52:06 PM
he knows they BS big time and decided to ban travel from China in January. He knew this virus was extremely dangerous back in January and took action that shocked the world. He later shocked the world again banning travel from Europe.

IIRC travel was not banned, but due to restrictions on non-citizens/residents flying to the US from China and later Italy and later other EU countries, most airlines stopped flying or in the case of EU minimized flights dramatically.  Regarding China isn't it a 'chicken or egg first' theory? Did airlines stop flying?  IIRC they had trouble finding crews to fly the planes.  Also, that checks of remaining passengers were pretty lax with no quarantine requirements nor tests and in most cases, not even a temperature taken?

I can get on a plane tomorrow bound for the US.  Maybe I'm asymptomatic, infecting folks along the way.. who is to know?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 13, 2020, 05:58:44 PM
Am I missing something?

There is some evidence from autopsies being reported here that shows clots are formed as antibodies attach themselves to this virus and may block the small capillaries in many parts of the body.  Nothing concrete yet though.  This could, however, account for permanent damage to organs that do not regenerate readily like heart and lungs and penis.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 13, 2020, 08:11:25 PM
Since the shutdown, 300% rise on suicide rates, DV increased, Opioid deaths spiraling. Not to mention the desperation of those struck down by this pandemic on the economic scale of this problem. The country needs to move forward.
Well shows how 'resilient' and 'exceptional' the US populace is. 
  If what you report is accurate moving forward may be have a higher survival rate even with the virus running loose! 

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 13, 2020, 08:15:39 PM
My impression is that is only expected in those that have severe reactions to the virus and are on deaths doorstep.


The article said many with mild symptoms of COVID-19 showed loss of organ function. This is a Chinese study. It could be true or actually worse than what they're finding. Since we are behind China, Western nations will be able to put out their own findings in a month or so when it comes to understanding if survivor's organ functions returned to normal. From the article:

In a study posted this week, scientists in China examined the blood test results of 34 COVID-19 patients over the course of their hospitalization. In those who survived mild and severe disease alike, the researchers found that many of the biological measures had “failed to return to normal.”

http://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-infection-may-cause-lasting-220307511.html

Besides the Chinese doctors saying many organ functions failed to return to normal, some Western doctors chimed in too. From the article:

Given SARS-CoV-2's affinity for lung tissue, doctors quickly suspected that some recovered COVID-19 patients would sustain lasting damage to their lungs. In infections involving the coronavirus that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), about one-third of recovered patients had lung impairment after three years, but those symptoms had largely cleared 15 years later. And researchers found that one-third of patients who suffered Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) had scarring of the lungs — fibrosis — that was probably permanent.

As some of you know, the media has again told us Trump and Dr. Fauci are feuding. Today's briefing hopefully put an end to that. Dr. Fauci said Trump always took his and Dr. Brix's health recommendations although unpopular to some who want the economy moving. Dr. Fauci also said this virus is worse than we could ever imagine.

I can get on a plane tomorrow bound for the US.  Maybe I'm asymptomatic, infecting folks along the way.. who is to know?


Maybe it's time to come home BC. We'll take you back, warts, infections, and all.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 13, 2020, 08:27:31 PM
No country pays much attention to the flu. All countries are taking this virus seriously so it's just not one leader of one country that is overestimating this virus. 
This seems to be pretty strong evidence that there is something more to this virus than the current death count in the US which seemingly isn't that large just yet.  It begs the question of:

 'Why would the world's leaders all fairly uniformly take such severe precautions if there wasn't good reason?

Makes me wonder what is going on.  What doesn't the public know?   

Fathertime!   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 13, 2020, 08:45:00 PM
Makes me wonder what is going on.  What doesn't the public know?   


It's best the public doesn't know because panic will kill more than the virus. But look at the history of two other coronaviruses. Neither qualified as the virus of the century. One third of the survivors of SARS had lung impairment for up to 15 years. One third of the survivors of MERS had lung damage for life. And that is just lungs. SARS COV-19 can damage other organs too. We can't have a nation full of sick people. Sick people don't function properly, need more medical care which will stress out our hospitals, increase social programs, and hurt the economy. We can't afford that which means we can't go back to a normal life anytime soon. We must stall for time in hopes a vaccine will be created. Once created we can go back to a normal life and get the economy going 100% but we can't do that if one third of the population has health problems.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Maxx2 on April 13, 2020, 08:47:46 PM
At last some good news. Hopefully Georgia follows suit and opens their economy April 21 as promised.




http://apnews.com/ba9578acf23bdb03fd51a2b81f640560
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Maxx2 on April 13, 2020, 10:37:34 PM
From my daughter:


"Good luck, one of my coworkers ran into a operation manager at my work and he says that he thinks we will be shut down til at least July. Then they won't be able to rehire all of us because there will be rules on how close people can be etc. This whole thing is to destroy our country I swear to God. Plus take away our liberty as we know it."
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 13, 2020, 10:52:20 PM
This, from the guy who believes global warming caused by man is causing long, dry spell in desert areas. I doubt Trump cares about any opinion coming from such characters who harbor such idiotic opinion.

As yes, I noticed you were still misquoting longer dry spells and the sparks that started the Paradise fire weren't at all to do with the MUCH longer, drier spells...


Dr. Fauci, the trumpeted *EXPERT* declared late February that the US have nothing to worry about this pandemic. It changed shortly thereafter.


And.. ? He learnt more and revised his viewpoint - perfectly normal for an honest person

He followed that up by giving us a whole bunch of overly-estimated models which proved way out of the ballpark. He earned a nice fortune cookie for these wonderful declarations so far.

As we have no way of knowing if his models WERE 'over-estimations' .. He certainly explained they were worst case scenarios  - if NOTHING was done ... I'm wondering what you're trying to 'achieve' .. other than drawing attention to your ability to warp the words / intent of folks....


The lastest grim estimate of dead Americans is now adjusted to 60,000! Yeay! That would put us right smack on par with 2017, 2018 seasonal flu death counts.

But did they quarantine you ? ,,,, Are you suggesting that lock-downs are a waste of time ...?  If so, relocate to Sweden or Belarus...



This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.


I'll probably have that as MY strapline in a few months ... to remind you ..  :deadhorse:
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 13, 2020, 11:01:18 PM
Such a response identifies you as the obtuse one.  You are deliberately being slow.  The question of how safe is "safe" is exactly the question, and  the answer will involve tradeoffs.    It is such a perplexing decision that you will not begin to write a substantive answer.   

If we stay in lockdown, as your criticism of Trump suggests, until all leading medical doctors say it is "safe" to go back to work, you will not see SC  until maybe mid-2021.     

1/ Gator - your question was answers... as long as it takes, either to find a vaccine or better treatment

2/ If that means I'll not be with SC for a while .. I'd rather have that and be paying for for the govt borrowings, than losing friends and family needlessly early

 

Trump synthesizes the opinions of Fauci and many other scientists, economists, etc.  Trump even listens to people like you (those who look only in the rearview mirror), and he answers their questions , e. g., Jim Acosta at the briefings.   

The point hat the good Doctor has made is that 'Trampu' DOESN'T listen to good advice ...

Yes, isn't it great!!!!

'Sure' ... tell THAT to lose who have lost loved ones - probably because 'Trampu' was more worried about the economy ..


Again... he is not alone in not listening to the more negative predictions and necessary steps that should have been taken ...   


SOME folks seek to shut down WHO ( or have its head replaced ) for asking govts to "TEST, TEST and TEST again" ..


Seems to me the wrong guy  is in the crosshairs of those to dumb to see who SHOULD be replaced !


Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 14, 2020, 12:46:26 AM
Maybe it's time to come home BC. We'll take you back, warts, infections, and all.

Nope.  I wanted to come back in April for a birthday but nixed that.  October / November is very iffy unless we all test positive for antibodies.  Otherwise, it will be next April or when a vaccine is available.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 14, 2020, 05:28:06 AM
Then what city will be the next NYC? Yours?

There are three key differences between today and when the virus first invaded NYC:

     1.  Government is far more vigilant today - Not that long ago, the mayor was holding staff meetings at his gym, health officials were saying enjoy the parade, travelers were entering freely from Italy, etc.

    2.  We now have better tools in the medical toolbox - At the top of this list is testing.  Therapy is also better. 

    3.  Individuals venturing from home now know what to do to reduce risk of exposure.

Also dampening rebounds is that 'Reopening America' will be done in stages instead of returning immediately to 2019.    The virus will still rebound in some cities, yet surveillance will detect this early, and if so, mitigation measures will be renewed promptly (e. g., Singapore).   


Quote
The number 1 moneymaker in FL is tourism. 

It will be a long time for tourism to recover fully.  Disney has reopened in China yet at lower levels with many controls.   Yet the beaches are still still there, bathed in balmy fresh air. 


Quote
How about all those cruise ships?

They will be the next to last to reopen, just before the nude group massages. 


Quote
Can't we be smarter than this incredibly dumb virus that does not even have a brain?

The virus caught us flat footed on two fronts. 

One front is public health.  We feared the wave of infections would exceed our hospital capacity.  American resourcefulness and public behavior prevented this, and now "the worst is over" (Governor Cuomo). 

Now we face a formidable challenge on a second front -  namely,  the costs of confronting the virus could exceed the capacity of our economy, flattening it just like "flattening the curve."  If so the damage will exceed the worst case envisioned for health.

The casualties in the health battles were primarily the elderly and/or sickly.   The casualties in the economic battles will be everyone,  and will be felt as more than malaise.  It will be measured in terms of poverty, depression, addiction,  suicide....

Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 14, 2020, 06:04:59 AM
1/ Gator - your question was answers... as long as it takes, either to find a vaccine or better treatment

Vaccine is a big unknown.  It could be years, although I hope not.  Therapy is improving every day with prospects for much better.  However, you would have to read something other than anti-Trump sources to understand.   

Quote
2/ If that means I'll not be with SC for a while .. I'd rather have that and be paying for for the govt borrowings, than losing friends and family needlessly early

Noble, but grossly overstated.  The epidemic wave has just hit, and is passing.  How many did we lose? 

This is declining to endemic levels.  More outbreaks  will occur, yet we will detect them sooner and respond better than for this first wave.    Stop hiding under your bed.     

 
Quote
The point hat the good Doctor has made is that 'Trampu' DOESN'T listen to good advice ...

Pay attention.  This is not what he said.  He  had enough of the false accusations from the anti-Trump crowd and answered directly in unequivocal terms this was not the case.   


Quote
Sure' ... tell THAT to lose who have lost loved ones - probably because 'Trampu' was more worried about the economy ... Again... he is not alone in not listening to the more negative predictions and necessary steps that should have been taken ...


And he should have been different from all of his G20 peers.    Actually, he was ahead of most, something that will be shown in the after-action reports.


Quote
SOME folks seek to shut down WHO ( or have its head replaced ) for asking govts to "TEST, TEST and TEST again" ..

Not seeking to shutdown WHO, but to change it.  Do not parrot what China tells you.  Instead, have its fat cat executives living in their chalets in Switzerland to verify.  Do quick studies  such as done by UK's Imperial College, or at least read contrarian reports. 


Quote
Seems to me the wrong guy  is in the crosshairs of those to dumb to see who SHOULD be replaced !

You have sunk to a new low in blind partisanship.  You might be the only non-Chinese citizen to believe this.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 14, 2020, 06:44:19 AM
 


  Do not parrot what China tells you.   

You might be the only non-Chinese citizen to believe this.   
The real reason partisan patriots like jone and gator continue to unsuccessfully berate china is because they are beating us (The US) around the globe.

We in the US refuse to do much work, and try to demonize illegal immigrants that will actually do the work. According to this article the world is rather friendly with China, and this has upset the free loading, petro dollar printing US. 

How China could win over the post-coronavirus world and leave the U.S. behind

To understand the post-COVID-19 world that is coming, there is one important human statistic we must bear in mind: 330 million people live in the U.S.; 1.4 billion in China and approximately 6 billion in the rest of the world. These 6 billion, who live in 191 countries, have begun preparing themselves for the US-China geopolitical contest. Their choices will determine who will win.....


 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-china-could-win-over-the-post-coronavirus-world-and-leave-the-us-behind-2020-04-14?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo  (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-china-could-win-over-the-post-coronavirus-world-and-leave-the-us-behind-2020-04-14?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo)

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 14, 2020, 06:48:40 AM
As yes, I noticed you were still misquoting longer dry spells and the sparks that started the Paradise fire weren't at all to do with the MUCH longer, drier spells...

Your attempt to slime your way out of the mess you created yourself is noted. Here's the exchanges to remind you again.

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=21622.msg520180#msg520180

(best you try and get that thread deleted too, like the Tiger Woods deleted pages, note not post, pages - that highlighted another of your silly dandies. - which it will probably be soon)

...and since this is Gator's COVID thread, I'll make this brief for you and edooket you some...The debate that rages in California regarding these wildfires have largely to do with the attitudes by environmentalist in the State. To insure getting elected, politicians cater to these naturalist groups to preserve our natural areas and woodlands to its natural state. Meaning, no firebreaks, no roads for fire engines, no water depot/sources, etc...this was, in greater detail was what both Trump and the state's governor (Brown) argued about during, and the aftermath of, the NoCal wildfires; and in lesser degree, the Woolsey fire.

Common forestry sense and management abandoned and consequently left woodland areas undefended and were ripe for wildfires as the same 'naturalist groups' were being razed by the same 'natural element' they advocated for - wildfires - and started burning their homes and existence. So your stupid 'global warming because of man causing long, dry spell in the desert' is asinine and really way out there. Not all of these so-called environmentalist ideology work in areas heavily populated.

It's been proven repeatedly in this forum that you are the least informed poster in this, or likely the other board. Thus, I advise that you 'ask' instead of 'tell' over many subjects discussed. You'll serve yourself much better.

Quote
And.. ? He learnt more and revised his viewpoint - perfectly normal for an honest person

As we have no way of knowing if his models WERE 'over-estimations' .. He certainly explained they were worst case scenarios  - if NOTHING was done ... I'm wondering what you're trying to 'achieve' .. other than drawing attention to your ability to warp the words / intent of folks....

If it isn't clear to you, and since you 'ask' - you harped about the fake news subject that Trump is, or was not, listening to 'expert' opinion and he should. Thus, my post above.

Quote
But did they quarantine you ? ,,,, Are you suggesting that lock-downs are a waste of time ...?  If so, relocate to Sweden or Belarus...

Good. You're 'asking' again. The point of the new estimate of 60,000 is simply to illustrate that the seasonal flu fatalities is still relatively far more virulent than that of COVID in the US at this point in time. It has no relation to Sweden, Belarus or Timbuktu.

Quote
I'll probably have that as MY strapline in a few months ... to remind you ..  :deadhorse:

Please do, as I am in total lock step with New York's governor Cuomo on this one. After all, he should know more about NY than me - ESPECIALLY - far more than you.

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-death-toll-in-new-york-state-tops-10000-cuomo-says.html
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 14, 2020, 07:12:39 AM
lock-downs are a waste of time ...?  If so, relocate to Sweden or Belarus...


Not sure what all they are doing in Belarus but contrary to popular belief, Sweden has taken action. They closed schools and universities. They recommend people to stay home and they ban gatherings larger than 50. Many experts say that is not enough but it will be an interesting experiment to see if a nation can get away with less action against this virus in a gamble to save more of their economy.

http://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/as-virus-deaths-rise-sweden-sticks-to-low-scale-lockdown

The IMF has now predicted the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Among the regions projected to see the hardest hit in 2020: the Euro Area at -7.5%, Mexico at -6.6%, the United Kingdom at -6.5%, and the United States at -5.9%. China is projected to grow by 1.2%, still a noticeable downgrade from its 2019 growth rate of 6.1%.

“Much worse growth outcomes are possible and maybe even likely,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said. The IMF cautioned that its forecast faces “extreme uncertainty” because of the difficulty around predicting the pathway of the pandemic and the efficacy of containment measures, among other factors


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-the-great-lockdown-to-be-worst-recession-since-great-depression-123009231.html?.tsrc=fin-notif
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 14, 2020, 07:55:13 AM

    2.  We now have better tools in the medical toolbox - At the top of this list is testing. 


I watched Pence last night who stated that 110,000 tests per day were being performed.  That's only a little over twice the rate here in Italy.  Mentions that some states were not testing to capacity, or that materials were not on hand etc.

We'll have our own challenges with testing here, but what hit me as odd is if we in the US have a 25-30,000 positives per day with 110,000 tests, are hospitals and doctors still having difficulty getting tests done for staff? What about our elderly in assisted living homes etc?  Is the 'flattening' of new infections artificial? 

It will, of course, take a huge testing push to get and keep a handle on the virus.  I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling about this most important aspect of recovery.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 14, 2020, 08:26:03 AM
Well shows how 'resilient' and 'exceptional' the US populace is. 
  If what you report is accurate moving forward may be have a higher survival rate even with the virus running loose! 

Fathertime!

They're mostly snowflakes, FT. But since you admitted not belonging to the 'exceptional /resilient' group that the vast majority of true Americans like myself are, we need not worry.

Unlike you, of course.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 14, 2020, 08:46:01 AM
I watched Pence last night who stated that 110,000 tests per day were being performed.  That's only a little over twice the rate here in Italy.  Mentions that some states were not testing to capacity, or that materials were not on hand etc.

We'll have our own challenges with testing here, but what hit me as odd is if we in the US have a 25-30,000 positives per day with 110,000 tests, are hospitals and doctors still having difficulty getting tests done for staff? What about our elderly in assisted living homes etc?  Is the 'flattening' of new infections artificial? 

It will, of course, take a huge testing push to get and keep a handle on the virus.  I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling about this most important aspect of recovery.

BC-

It isn't solely about availability of test. This seeming low number of daily testing is attributable to the fact most places, if not all, are only 'testing' those showing symptoms.

I don't believe we have enough test kits to test the entire population yet, but there has been progress in enhancing not only the manufacturing of reliable test kits we have today, but also the methodology and the efficiency of getting the result. They are now even trying to get FDA approval about a 'saliva sampling test kits' as it is.

National testing is the surest way to curb and tame our nation today, health and economic sense.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 14, 2020, 08:48:35 AM
FWIW, where I am. I noticed about a 35-40% rise in rush hour traffic on my way to work this morning. Daily traffic report on the radio also noted the increase.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 14, 2020, 08:50:17 AM

The Russian government says it has carried out over 1.4 million tests for Covid-19. But Moscow doctors have recently begun diagnosing patients as positive based on lung scans because of questions over the accuracy of the tests.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/coronavirus-takes-a-serious-turn-in-russia-and-putin-no-longer-radiates-confidence/ar-BB12Ckon?ocid=spartanntp

Russia is another nation speaking on the inaccuracy of test kits. I remember reading Spain complained their Chinese test kits were 30% accurate and Czech Republic complaining their Chinese test kits were 20% accurate. That means a lot of infected people may be allowed to go back into the general population after getting tested and some non infected people may be placed in mandatory quarantine at some hotel.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 14, 2020, 09:31:40 AM
BC-

It isn't solely about availability of test. This seeming low number of daily testing is attributable to the fact most places, if not all, are only 'testing' those showing symptoms.


That would make logical sense, but the 'top of the curve' just seems way too flat IMO.  I am pretty sure any excess testing capacity would be extended to health workers, police and other critical workers.  Is that happening?
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on April 14, 2020, 09:36:49 AM
This has all reminded me of a cross between The Thing and Invasion of the Body Snatchers



(http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/mrz041320dAPR20200411094524.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on April 14, 2020, 09:39:21 AM
 (http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/sk041220dAPR20200411035007.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 14, 2020, 01:50:08 PM
I watched Pence last night who stated that 110,000 tests per day were being performed. 

I agree more tests are needed, and I don't know the situation.  It varies among states.   For example, Florida is doing more testing than its share based on population, about 10,000 tests per day (a peak of 15,485 yesterday with only 1,124 positives). 
 

Quote
It will, of course, take a huge testing push to get and keep a handle on the virus.  I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling about this most important aspect of recovery.

Agree.  Testing is the key to reducing the number of infections to low numbers. 

NATIONAL GOAL:  Identify the 2-3 million "carriers" in America and isolate them, rather than isolating the entire 330 million. 

How do we scale up to huge numbers of daily tests needed to identify the "carriers?"

The 5-minute Abbott Labs test approved three weeks ago was a game changer using the small ID NOW platform, with 18,000 devices already existing in ERs, doctors’ offices, and urgent-care clinics around the country.  However, 18,000 devices is a pittance of what we need, and where will we find the medical staff to operate a huge increase in number of devices?

There is talk of a home test.  Yet, it is months away.

Meanwhile....we need to get back to work.   
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: jone on April 14, 2020, 02:04:35 PM
4701 vs. 731.   Interesting numbers.   The first is the seasonal average for flu deaths in the State of California.   The second number is the actual deaths in California from COVID 19.

I have always felt that the warmer the climate, the fewer deaths from viruses.  Maybe that's just me.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: LAman on April 14, 2020, 02:51:59 PM
4701 vs. 731.   Interesting numbers.   The first is the seasonal average for flu deaths in the State of California.   The second number is the actual deaths in California from COVID 19.

I have always felt that the warmer the climate, the fewer deaths from viruses.  Maybe that's just me.

Are you saying that having COVID 19 saved almost 4000 lives? Is it determinable to know how many deaths were from the flu?

I think it is way to early to determine if coronavirus will act like influenza virus and be seasonal or if it will be back next year. As I understand, the coronavirus mutates slower than influenza virus.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 14, 2020, 03:39:18 PM
That would make logical sense, but the 'top of the curve' just seems way too flat IMO.  I am pretty sure any excess testing capacity would be extended to health workers, police and other critical workers.  Is that happening?

That has been happening. First responders and healthcare workers. NY had already listed the number of infected NYPD officers including # of fatalities so far. As well as other places...

But, based on worldometer count today (610,600), and if the % of positive cases from total testing remains at 15%, then 4 million tested is pretty low. Even if you allow for a contingency of 3 (12 million, for re-test, false negative/positive, botched tests, etc..), of testing in the given period, is still relatively 'low'.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: jone on April 14, 2020, 05:25:57 PM
My favorite pasta take-out place closed down yesterday.   Not due to virus concerns, but due to lack of customers.   This place fed the local businesses in the area.  All of which are shut down.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: ML on April 14, 2020, 06:55:09 PM

Agree.  Testing is the key to reducing the number of infections to low numbers. 

As I wrote earlier in some thread; the idea that testing will solve most of  the problem has a flaw.

Person X tests negative today, but tomorrow he/she would test positive if retested.

Yes, testing does help identify those who test positive on that day; but retesting needed on each following day if everyone is to be identified over time.

Ah . . . for the simpler days of tracking down Typhoid Mary victims.

Or . . . I remember reading 15 or so years ago about tracking a case of STDs.
Door guard at a nightclub in Amsterdam (I think that was the city) gave names of some 20 gals he had sex with in the prior 30 days.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 14, 2020, 08:38:18 PM
They're mostly snowflakes, FT. But since you admitted not belonging to the 'exceptional /resilient' group that the vast majority of true Americans like myself are, we need not worry.

Unlike you, of course.
Still haven't missed a day or minute of work, unlike you huddled up behind your rolls of toilet paper.   You can still call yourself 'exceptional' though, since it makes you feel good about yourself. 

Fathertime!
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: fathertime on April 14, 2020, 08:39:27 PM
FWIW, where I am. I noticed about a 35-40% rise in rush hour traffic on my way to work this morning. Daily traffic report on the radio also noted the increase.
There was a large increase where I was also, and I've spoke to a few others that have said the same. 

Fathertime! 
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: tfcrew on April 14, 2020, 08:52:31 PM
 (http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/wwfeatures/wm/live/1280_640/images/live/p0/89/d0/p089d0gc.jpg)
The Plague Writers Who Predicted Today


 
Quote
14 April 2020   In uncertain – indeed, weird – times like these, as we increase our social isolation to ‘flatten the curve’, literature provides escape, relief, comfort and companionship. Less comfortingly, though, the appeal of pandemic fiction has also increased. Many pandemic titles read like guide books to today’s situation. And many such novels give a realistic chronological progression, from first signs through to the worst times, and the return of ‘normality’. They show us we’ve been through this before. We’ve survived.
http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20200413-what-can-we-learn-from-pandemic-fiction



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BC on April 14, 2020, 11:47:39 PM
Are you saying that having COVID 19 saved almost 4000 lives? Is it determinable to know how many deaths were from the flu?

I think it is way to early to determine if coronavirus will act like influenza virus and be seasonal or if it will be back next year. As I understand, the coronavirus mutates slower than influenza virus.

Lockdown and distancing works against flu as well ;)  It is indeed too early, we still do not know much about this bug.  The mutation rate is reported to be slower, that means only that a vaccine may work better and longer.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: GQBlues on April 16, 2020, 01:21:02 PM
Are you saying that having COVID 19 saved almost 4000 lives? Is it determinable to know how many deaths were from the flu?

The CDC report I posted here not too long ago cited that flu deaths (2018, I believe) were 'estimated' based on modeling.

But then, COVID's death rate is also questionable because of comorbidity e.g. they credit COVID for the death count as long as the dead tested positive for the virus in the absence of any autopsy. I suppose because not only there isn't much time these days under the circumstances, and/or, it apparently may also be related to what the payoff is with Medicare since the majority of deaths are with the elderlies....

Quote
I think it is way to early to determine if coronavirus will act like influenza virus and be seasonal or if it will be back next year. As I understand, the coronavirus mutates slower than influenza virus.

It may well be. But, as mentioned above, very likely won't get a perfect science either. They'll still rely on modeling. IF COVID ever 'becomes' treatable, or a vaccine is created for it, the chances of this getting lumped as part of the seasonal 'flu' in the future is pretty good. We're not exactly getting separate vaccines for H1N1, MERS, SARS, etc...
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: BillyB on April 16, 2020, 11:44:03 PM

China did something strange again. For over 3 weeks, they haven't reported more than 7 deaths a day. Some days they reported zero deaths. Today they reported 1290 deaths. Could it be them attempting to raise the number of deaths to decrease the number of accusations that they are lying? Their reputation is taking a hit. Fortunately for them, there's quite a few people out there that would never hold them responsible.
Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: msmob on April 17, 2020, 01:23:16 AM
Time to re-visit Sweden's policy .. much vaunted by those pointing to her and saying ' look' ..it's 'working for them' ..

(http://i.imgur.com/V6UbbY4.png)

Compare with their neighbours - who are imposing stricter measures ..



Title: Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
Post by: Gator on April 17, 2020, 05:34:50 AM
Time to re-visit Sweden's policy .. much vaunted by those pointing to her and saying ' look' ..it's 'working for them' ..

Compare with their neighbours - who are imposing stricter measures ..

Stark difference from a visual perspective. 

During the US Civil War, the Union's General Grant was called a "butcher" because of his attrition strategy.  However, Lincoln appointed him commander of US armies because Grant won battles albeit at great loss of life.  And after the war the public twice ele