http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Today's info shows a ray of sunshine as the total falls below the exponential rate consistently seen from the start through 27 January.
The slowing of confirmed cases in China can be seen in this Johns Hopkins chart.
http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
A cynic could argue that growth slowed for just one day or the Chinese statisticians took a break to rest for a day. :D Neverthless the total number is well less than that predicted just a few days ago by Bianco's exponential growth.
We just hope the Chinese are reporting actual data.
BillyB-
I thought China was in fact pro-active about this. They had quarantined the entire city proper FWIW, and immediately issue travel warnings, building makeshift hospitals to treat those afflicted, etc...(?)
It's OK. I read a report the common flu virus killed 10,000 Americans last year alone. Denge fever had so far killed 5 Bolivians this year so far, etc... Big Deal right?
According to our liberal zealots the world is imploding by 2012 making whatever China is doing, or not, seem rather trivial, don't you think?
The numbers are 10x lower than 'actual' we'll see in the coming days I suppose.
Currently it's showing about a 15% mortality rate (25,000 Dead / 155,000 Infected) which also coincides with what the Medical Journal stated as well.
This would also make more sense as to why Crematorium workers at all 3 Crematoriums are working 24/7 With forced overtime.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/we-cant-stop-funeral-worker-says-wuhan-cremating-at-least-100-bodies-a-day-amid-coronavirus-outbreak
Gilead, an American company, applied for a treatment virus patent three years ago. The target of this treatment was the Ebola virus. One of the patent applications was filed in China. China rejected the patent, even though part of the purpose of the patent was anticipated viral agents similar to Corona.
In other news Chinese doctor who was punished for trying to warn the public early about the virus now has the virus himself.
http://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/chinese-doctor-punished-for-warning-people-about-coronavirus-now-has-the-illness-203152013.html
Chinese doctor now dead.
High amounts of Sulfur Dioxide showing all over the populated areas of China. The burning of organics which includes human bodies emits Sulfur Dioxide. Wuhan is showing the most Sulfur Dioxide.
http://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?so2sm,44.402,40.957,3
Nearly 16,000 new cases of infections today which is the biggest one day jump ever.
This needs explanation.
The WHO gives the virus a new name so it doesn't offend or apply a stigma to a certain group people or animals.
People are probably wishing they cancelled their vacations to Asia like common sense told them so.
More people will die from 'flu in the UK / US than your 'fixation' ..
'People' are wondering why you are posting tosh about this virus ..
You KEEP posting about face-masks ... and I keep telling you that the face-masks most folk wear are useless after they become damp - six minutes ...
More people will die from 'flu in the UK / US than your 'fixation' ..
SC is in Asia and I'm NO more worried about her catching Covid-19 than I am you telling 'the world' another version of "How Moby kept SC waiting" and "V wasn't avoiding signing divorce papers" ...or even repeatedly stating "Moby didn't tell partners about his affliction" ..
You ARE a 'virus'..))) Just not a very infectious or serious one
You can't stop
You are very weak in many areas, especially in math and common sense. If you were to get infected this year from a virus and you had a choice, would you want the flu virus or the new coronavirus?
I often think about the upcoming new flu variant and how the US/UK is preparing to Quarantine 60 Million people for flu season.
SC is in Asia and I'm NO more worried about her catching Covid-19
Where did he keep posting about face-masks?
Moby thinks the flu is worse than the coronavirus.
Stats for this virus are always behind reality and your quoting a state that is hardly honest about ANYTHING ...and keeps a close tab on folks venturing too far from the beaten track is risible.
How many people have died from the virus outside China...from nations that can be relied on to be trying to be accurate?
That is even more reason to doubt whether China has this virulence under control.
On the time scale, other countries are behind China. Wait 3-4 weeks.
It is more likely than not that the US will avoid an epidemic. However, it is prudent and reasonable to assume some infected people entered the US undetected. In 3-4 weeks we can be sure.
Until then if I were travelling in emerging Asia I would be somewhat cautious (avoid crowds, wash hands frequently, never touch the face especially the nose, no raw food).
How many people have died from the virus outside China...from nations that can be relied on to be trying to be accurate?
Each nation with citizens are putting their best doctors and scientists on the very few that are infected. They get the best care, immunity boosters, help with breathing and medicine to regulate temperature. The are doing their best to learn about the virus and keep the handful of people alive. Now if they let it get out of control and have 60,000 infected, not everybody will get the best medical staff, treatment, and drugs to beat the virus.
When someone gets a flu virus, they can beat it at home or visit a below average doctor in a small clinic to get told to get rest and get prescribed a few common drugs to regulate temperature and relieve symptoms. An average person with the flu doesn't need the best of the best to beat it.
Nothing in BillyB's link suggests the Chinese are 'lying', now.
The Chinese don't suggest they lie yet the reason they give for the low numbers that were previously reported is because the old methods they've used to count were to blame. You can trust their new method to count infections and deaths if you want but I don't trust them. Apparently a lot of people died already and it was documented something else killed them but it's too late to go through their cremated ashes to do another autopsy.
You have this BAD habit of making assertions that you cannot know about - yet are also v.quick to tell others they shouldn't trust what they hear from untraceable sources ..
If this virus comes to the UK / US in serious numbers - do you think 'we' have enough 'hazsuits et al ' to cope for long ?
Wasn't China asking for help with supplies?
Do you know the 'source' of Ebola or HIV? Do you understand virus' mutate ?
if you think the Chinese govt labs have unwittingly infected it's people .. I suspect that - even in China - it'll get out ..
Unless you grow your own food and live in the wilderness - that seems impossible ?
Patient one of the Ebola virus was bitten by a bat.
HIV is in primates.
Infectious diseases laboratories are specially built to treat everything leaving it. That includes air and sewer so to make sure nothing deadly gets out alive. The most likely case is a worker unknowingly got the virus and took it outside the lab. The way the Chinese government protect their medical workers against a deadly virus may give us a clue how they handle things elsewhere.
Scientists do not know where Ebola virus comes from. However, based on the nature of similar viruses, they believe the virus is animal-borne, with bats or nonhuman primates with bats or nonhuman primates (chimpanzees, apes, monkeys, etc.) being the most likely source.
Source? : 'Your' very own CDC
The CDC doesn't know where the virus came from but they know it's in certain animals and they can pinpoint the animal responsible for the outbreak. the 2014 outbreak came from bats as the first patient was bitten by one according to the CDC. When an outbreak happens, it's important to identify the source to prevent more infections from happening.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html
760 million people under quarantine.
China continues to report incomplete if not questionable data, meaning we have no scientific assessment of the trajectory of the endemic.
This obviously will affect their economy.
I deal with Chinese people re designs, production, delivery and find them to be generally very efficient and organised...
The problem is the folk who run things like Communists do ...
Our stuff is taking a DAY longer than normal - I don't know if we'll be delayed re any components that might come from effected areas ....
"Russia halted most air traffic to China, suspended all trains to China and North Korea,
Why 'manufacture' a virus with a low kill rate and no vaccine ?
How would you expect the Chinese to trace an animal source when other earlier viral epidemics haven't been traced back to 'ground zero' ?
Not many folks know that HIV may have been around nearly 200 years ..
Who told you the new coronavirus has a low kill rate? China?
Even if a biological weapons have a low kill rate, it's still an effective weapon.
You do not understand warfare.
Killing isn't the only way to take a soldier off the battlefield. Google "toe popper". It's a cheap land mine that isn't designed to kill but destroy a foot. When a soldier has his foot damaged, it takes at least two other soldiers to carry him back to camp which means at least three soldiers are out of the fight. If soldiers are getting the flu, they are in no shape to fight and will infect other soldiers to make them in no shape to fight.
Why no vaccine? If it's easy to create a vaccine, it's easy for the enemy to create a vaccine to defeat the biological weapon. Genetically modified biological weapons are designed not to be easily defeated.
Yes, animal meat was blamed. China says the source came from an illegal meat market yet they haven't identified the meat. Go figure. Stupid people believe them. China shut down the meat market. They can take all meat and check for the virus at the lab next door.
May? HIV has or hasn't been around for nearly 200 years. Saying "may" sounds like you and your source don't know the truth.
How many people have died from the virus outside China - in comparison to those infected ?
WHO date from 22nd Feb
Outside of China
1402 confirmed (202 new)
28 countries (2 new)
11 deaths (3 new)
So, are WHO 'making it up' ..?
Only if you have a defence ( vaccine) or some way to ensure your own side don't get infected
You've already proven YOU do not understand biology,
You see, BillyB, nothing in this field of biology is 'black and white' ..
You KEEP on proving what you're learning is from Google, rather than having studied biology to an advanced level ..
John Hopkins has the data reported from each country and 17 people outside of China has died. 187 people outside of China have recovered.
1 out of every 11 people die or just over 9% of the people will die and these first cases have the best doctors and treatments available. If 70,000 people were infected, the best medical professionals and facilities would not be available to all infected. I do not count the infected cases into the fatality rate because it is unknown what side of the fence the infected will fall on at the end of their battle with the virus.
9% death rate is a lot worse than the common flu which has a .1% death rate. 1 out of 11 dying is a lot worse than 1 out of a 1000 dying. Do you understand the math and the reason WHO is now claiming this can turn into a pandemic?
Now some Chinese provinces have over a 700 recovery rate with only 1 person dying while the Hubei province which includes the city of Wuhan has 6.5 people recovering for every person dying. 700 to 1 recovery to death ratio vs 6.5 to 1 recovery to death ratio means Chinese people in some provinces have super immunity systems compared to Chinese in other provinces or China is lying in some, most or all of their provinces reporting.
http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Biological weapons get invented before any cure does. Does that not make sense to you? Nations who are into making biological weapons don't expect them to escape onto their own people so any time spent on making a cure comes later.
What biology expert in this world that you rely on that has got this coronavirus all figured out? Yourself? Because you are a carrier of a virus which makes you the expert on viruses?
OUTSIDE CHINA:
Deaths v infected 11 / 1402 less than 1 percent
CHINA
2348 / 77794 3 percent
These figures are based over a long time and become more realistic with every day - in percentile terms )
Deaths v infected 11 / 1402 less than 1 percent
CHINA
2348 / 77794 3 percent
Survival rate isn't deaths v infected, it's deaths v recovered. For some reason you and many journalists out there just lumped tens of thousands of people who are currently infected into the recovery camp and try to tell everybody it's not much worse than the common flu. It would be like me trying to lump all the infected into dead camp to show everybody how deadly this virus is. You don't know if those infected will remain alive or dead after their battle with the virus. I keep telling you that but you don't get it. If you currently are battling lung cancer, do you lump yourself into the lung cancer survivor category or the lump you into the group of people who lost the battle with lung cancer? You won't know until the battle is over. Over 77k people worldwide is infected with the virus but you already lumped them into the survivor category to fit your narrative that there is a high survival rate. Fake news.
My wife and I are planning a travel holiday this spring. I really like Hawaii, yet I had this nagging concern that if COVID 19 continued to spread, Hawaii would likely become a "hot spot" due to much of its tourism originating from Asia. I would not fear becoming ill as much as getting caught up in travel bans and other quarantine measures.
Our travel holiday planning is now on hold. First time in my life this has happened.
Hopefully, the world's health organizations turn the corner soon on this serious virus.
You are a US Citizen .. You live in Florida - do you need a Beach holiday ? What about Alaska ?;))
RWD's Sandro resides in Milan. We wish the best for him and his city-county neighbors.Thanks for your concern, no alarms until a few days ago :(.
Maybe Sandro has some info. I understand Milan schools have been closedFor a week initially as a precaution, also other places where many people congregate like cinemas, theatres, museums, discoes, etc. This is also our Carnival week, and the worst hit financially will be Venice.
All cases, except the the fatality near Padua at right, involved trips to China.
Wash those hands!I usually do :D.
Hawaii is more than beaches, much more.
Living in Florida, more than an hour on the beach becomes tedious. There is much to see in Florida; however, we have already seen it all including the off-the-beaten-path sites, e. g. Frank Lloyd Wright's one and only designed college campus and a rattlesnake festival (where tattoos outnumber teeth :D).
Alaska is similar to Russia except for the coast.
Our bad luck was that 3 people went to a hospital complaining of breathing difficulties BEFORE anything was known about the Chinese epidemic. Most infected are from the staff and patients of those hospitals :(.
We were thinking about a long motor trip in the northern Rockies looking for a possible summer home.
Hospital or hospitals? The latter would explain the wide spread, yet all within commuting distance of hospitals.2 hospitals, 1 in Milan and 1 south of it.
RWD's Sandro resides in Milan. We wish the best for him and his city-county neighbors.
We were thinking about a long motor trip in the northern Rockies looking for a possible summer home.
Give some thought to northern Michigan for great summer living.
Some experts say to start buying food that can last up to a 60 day quarantine in case the virus comes to your neighborhood. Better to do it sooner than later when panic happens and food lines are long.I wonder who your "experts" are :-\.
I wonder who your "experts" are :-\.
Corona has an incubation period from initial contagion of about 2 weeks, which is also the current quarantine period. After that, one is either dismissed as several already have, or retained to prevent further spreading and monitor developments: there have also been many cases of infected people showing spontaneous remissions.
My wife and I are planning a travel holiday this spring. I really like Hawaii, yet I had this nagging concern that if COVID 19 continued to spread, Hawaii would likely become a "hot spot" due to much of its tourism originating from Asia. I would not fear becoming ill as much as getting caught up in travel bans and other quarantine measures.odd, id be ,ore concered about illness than quarantine there seems to be a genuine risk of illness popping up almost anywhere
the financial fallout is going to get steeper
the bond market will be next...
it could get as bad as 2007 later this year....
...and I am SO relieved that we have the greatest president in the history of the universe now!!!
eventually, most of us are going to be infected
and 1-2% of us will die
This is nature sorting itself out and finding balance. It's been long overdue.
Natural selection? Within the human species? Or humans vs. viruses?
This is nature sorting itself out and finding balance. It's been long overdue.
Italy reports they have 322 people infected. They report 11 people finished their battle with the virus. 1 person fully recovered. The other 10 died.
The cruise ship reports they currently have 691 people infected and 3 people finished their battle with the virus and all 3 died.
Iran reports they currently have 95 people infected and 16 people finished their battle with the virus and all 16 died.
South Korea reports they have 1146 people infected and 32 finished their battle with the virus. 22 made a full recovery and 10 died.
I don't trust Chinese reporting. Their numbers imply there are 10 recoveries for every one death. Almost 10% or 1 out of 11 people die from this virus according to China so far. In comparison 1 out of 1000 people die from the flu.
http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
BillyB
Are you simply trying to prove that you like to argue with yourself, with your 'stats' and 'mortality rates'?
this is an RNA virus, this makes it very unlikely there will ever be a vaccine...
also no currently known anti-virals have been effective
I report the numbers the nations report. Not my stats. You're upset the numbers doesn't fit your narrative that this virus isn't much deadlier than the flu. China locked down 760 million people and 90% of their economy. China's neighbors completely closed their borders. Hello? Doesn't that tell you something? It's a good thing you're not in charge of a nation that is next door to China because you don't think what is going on is dangerous.
BAD SIGN - INEXPLICABLE CASE IN CALIFORNIA
COVID confirmed for one person with "....no travel history to an affected area and no known contact with a person previously diagnosed with COVID-19." This could be the start of community spreading.
She probably bought something on eBay, or from those internet roving merchants, and finally received shipment. I haven’t yet read if this virus is transmitted via touch, airborne, or other means.if it transmits through ebay we are going to be in deep trouble.
Italy reports they have 322 people infected. They report 11 people finished their battle with the virus. 1 person fully recovered. The other 10 died.if your numbers are correctedly depicted then this is going to be very bsd. it seems you are saying thta most people are still infected and it would seem many will be dead later...the way you characterize it is hardly anybody survives...if that is the cqse then in a few weeks 80k will be dead. we shall see
The cruise ship reports they currently have 691 people infected and 3 people finished their battle with the virus and all 3 died.
Iran reports they currently have 95 people infected and 16 people finished their battle with the virus and all 16 died.
South Korea reports they have 1146 people infected and 32 finished their battle with the virus. 22 made a full recovery and 10 died.
I don't trust Chinese reporting. Their numbers imply there are 10 recoveries for every one death. Almost 10% or 1 out of 11 people die from this virus according to China so far. In comparison 1 out of 1000 people die from the flu.
http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
She probably bought something on eBay, or from those internet roving merchants, and finally received shipment. I haven’t yet read if this virus is transmitted via touch, airborne, or other means.
There was a report of a Korean Airlines flight attendant that hubbed at LAX who was later found to be infected with the virus. There doesn’t seem to be a follow up report on this story.
China's central bank is taking steps to deep clean and even destroy its cash out of fears that the new coronavirus can survive on the surface of money and potentially spread, according to CNN.
But how long can the new coronavirus linger on surfaces, anyway? The short answer is, we don't know. But if this new coronavirus resembles other human coronaviruses, such as its "cousins" that cause SARS and MERS, it can stay on surfaces — such as metal, glass or plastic — for as long as nine days, according to a new study. (In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.)
There currently is no definitive information on this virus transmissibility.
http://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html
Me?
I prefer to rely on a micro-biologist, RU qualified MD and retired surgeon .. AND the NHS ..
Already been proven. 9 days give or take. Your NHS takes 4 hours for an emergency visit on a good day. That's before a pandemic. Pretty sure I know why you're hoping this is just a case of the sniffles. Certain Demographic, Prior condition. Poor Medical Service. I can be in an ER in 8 minutes if I call now and say I'm having heart issues. Wish you luck ;)
Pretty sure I know why you're hoping this is just a case of the sniffles. Certain Demographic, Prior condition. Poor Medical Service.
I can be in an ER in 8 minutes if I call now and say I'm having heart issues. Wish you luck ;)
'proven' ? :wallbash:
1/ The NHS doesn't make folks wait to be treated until they can find someone to pay when ill... as happened with my first wife on a trip to Florida in 1994 .. She was in agony with acute Sinusitis... We had medical cover - but until I paid for the insurance excess - no treatment would be forth-coming ...
The NHS is under-funded and top heavy with managers ... the LAST thing it needs is 'help' from our cousins who don't think healthcare is a right.
2/ Just because there' BIG money involved in US healthcare in no way guarantees good care
3/ Your very own CDC seems o agree with the NHS, my micro-biologist , MD and retired surgeon..
Q: Am I at risk for COVID-19 from a package or products shipping from China?
A: There is still a lot that is unknown about the newly emerged COVID-19 and how it spreads. Two other coronaviruses have emerged previously to cause severe illness in people (MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV). The virus that causes COVID-19 is more genetically related to SARS-CoV than MERS-CoV, but both are betacoronaviruses with their origins in bats. While we don’t know for sure that this virus will behave the same way as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, we can use the information gained from both of these earlier coronaviruses to guide us. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of COVID-19 in the United States associated with imported goods. Information will be provided on the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) website as it becomes available.
http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html (http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html)
I'm CERTAIN you're clueless - PERIOD .. :popcorn:
Your bizarre need to prove your daftness knows no bounds ... May be you've been listening to your President making a 'Richard' of himself re the virus and contradicting the CDC ?
If in the UK, I live a 20 minute plus drive from the nearest major hospital ... I've never felt the need to live close to a hospital's Accident and Emergency ..
*I* could pick up the phone and a paramedic - one's normally on station near the motorway junction, nearby - would be home in less time than you need to be in the ER.. and guess what ? No charge ..
The subject is COVID-19 and here's the World Health Organisation info on packages from overseas
Is it safe to receive a package from any area where COVID-19 has been reported?
Yes. The likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low and the risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature is also low.
3/ Your very own CDC seems o agree with the NHS, my micro-biologist , MD and retired surgeon..
Upon admission, our team asked public health officials if this case could be COVID-19. We requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, since neither Sacramento County nor the California Department of Public Health is doing testing for coronavirus at this time. Since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered. UC Davis Health does not control the testing process...
I am worried about this as I have gall bladder surgery scheduled for 10th of March.
But if the virus starts to be treated in my local hospital before that . . . .
Gall bladder pain has been fairly constant for past several days, but only around 2-3.
Was thinking about going to emergency room right now and tell them the pain is 9-10.
if your numbers are correctedly depicted then this is going to be very bsd. it seems you are saying thta most people are still infected and it would seem many will be dead later...the way you characterize it is hardly anybody survives...if that is the cqse then in a few weeks 80k will be dead. we shall see
...the Chinese scientists writing in The Lancet medical journal later revealed that the first patient known to have contracted the novel coronavirus had no link to the Wuhan seafood market (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047646/no-link-seafood-market-first-case-china-coronavirus-chinese) that the Chinese government pointed to as the source of the outbreak. This would suggest that the virus all along was spreading via human-to-human transmission – and that the government was lying to the public from the very beginning of this catastrophe.
This week, The Coca-Cola Co. announced that it is experiencing both production and export issues of Diet Coke and other low-calorie drinks from China, which been ground zero for the outbreak.http://www.aol.com/article/finance/2020/02/27/why-diet-coke-may-be-in-shorter-supply-due-to-the-spread-of-coronavirus/23935688/
On Monday, Coca-Cola warned investors that its supply chain for an artificial sweetener and "certain other ingredients" sourced in China had been disrupted as a result of the outbreak, which has now killed more than 2,000 people around the world.
Trump is probably going to force private companies that manufacture masks to focus on manufacturing 300 million masks to combat the virus. Goal is to get a mask for every American and change slogan for 2020 election campaign to Make America Virus Free Again.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/exclusive-us-mulls-using-sweeping-powers-to-ramp-up-production-of-coronavirus-protective-gear/ar-BB10u5ge?ocid=spartanntp
I like the mask below. $9 and it fits snuggly over the face. I see a lot of Chinese not wearing their fabric masks properly. That aluminum strip needs to be form fitted over the nose otherwise air can get around the mask. Also needed is eye protection since the virus can get in the eyes and infect.
http://fadtype.com/DANIU-6200-N95-Double-Gas-Mask-Protection-Filter-Chemical-Half-Face-Respirator-Mask-1175732
South Korea is currently experiencing a virus explosion with over 2000 infected now but Canadian researchers estimate Iran has over 18,000 infected and are underreporting since they claim only 245 of their citizens are infected. Iran's deputy Health Minister said quarantines were a “Stone Age” way to address the problem, and Iran doesn’t need them. Later that evening he tested positive for the virus and then used a Stone Age solution quarantining himself for a modern day problem.
http://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-t-hide-coronavirus-explosion-102629171.html
Iran's Vice President has tested positive for the virus. Like China, Iran is probably underreporting and nations neighboring Iran are shutting down borders. Russia is restricting all flights from Iran. There is good news coming out of Iran since there's less commercial planes available for them to shoot down. Tourism to Iran is going to take a dive and the economy will take a hit. North Korea better keep quiet about it's virus problems otherwise they will lose tourists too.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/irans-vice-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB10u33i?ocid=spartanntp
Pope Francis was seen coughing a day after expressing his "closeness" to coronavirus victims in Italy.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/pope-francis-coughing-a-day-after-expressing-closeness-to-coronavirus-victims
"I wish, again, to express my closeness to those who are ill with coronavirus and to healthcare workers who are caring for them," Francis said during a general audience in St. Peter's Square before Ash Wednesday mass. The comment was prompted by the presence of several people in the audience wearing protective masks, according to (http://www.romereports.com/en/2020/02/26/pope-francis-sends-message-to-people-infected-with-coronavirus/) Rome Reports.
The Vatican reported that Francis developed a "slight indisposition" on Thursday and that he canceled a planned mass at St. John Lateran Basilica. The nature of the pope's illness was not specified.
Although Italy has become center for coronavirus outbreaks in Europe, with more than 440 cases reported, Rome has been largely free of illness. Only three cases have been reported in Rome, and all have recovered, according to (http://nypost.com/2020/02/27/pope-francis-sick-a-day-after-supporting-coronavirus-sufferers/) the New York Post. Globally, over 80,000 cases have been reported.
Francis forewent (http://apnews.com/19233731504e19355613706cd4e4d380) the precautions that many other Catholic churches took in celebrating Ash Wednesday. As he rode through the square, the pope kissed the forehead of a child and shook the hands of many people gathered in the audience, a departure from his usual wave.
Meanwhile, in Venice, Ash Wednesday mass at St. Mark's Basilica was canceled after several people in the city tested positive for the virus.
Did you watch the video with that Deputy Health Minister wiping his face constantly? Seemed like something you'd see from a Plague or Zombie movie, then later that day announces he has it too.
I am worried about this as I have gall bladder surgery scheduled for 10th of March.tough spot you may be in. i just got opened up and feel real bad and unabl to do much but hopeufully will get better stronger before and if this virus starts to go 'viral'. personally if i were you i'd rathr get it behind me sooner rather than in 2 weeks. my hope is billyb's analsysis is flawed but i'm open to it being possible and i think we are one outbreak away from empty shelves and major disruptions. if you are infirm during a crisis it would be doubley disturbing... yeah maybe fill up your kitchen and extra tanks of gasoline, doubt you would need it but why not? gall bladder does help with immune system if i remmber right so that aint' good eitehr. good luck
But if the virus starts to be treated in my local hospital before that . . . .
Gall bladder pain has been fairly constant for past several days, but only around 2-3.
Was thinking about going to emergency room right now and tell them the pain is 9-10.
I used numbers from some nations who have some of the worst survival rates. As I type this John Hopkins reports 36,063 people in the world finished a battle with the virus. 33,253 made a full recovery. 2810 died. I suspect a lot more dead since China underreports and some countries like N Korea isn't reporting at all but for arguments sake, lets say the numbers are true. That means 7.8 % of the people are dying from this virus. Mortality rate is extremely high. If everybody in this world got this virus once, 600 million people will die. But that is not the scary thing we need to worry about.....
Our bodies already experiences coronaviruses that cause the common cold. There is no cure/vaccine for the common cold viruses. There probably won't be a cure/vaccine ever discovered for 2019 - nCoV. We may have to live with this virus forever and if it maintains a 7.8% rate of death for those infected and we catch this virus ten times in our lives, there's a good chance most of us will die from it eventually. This virus must be eradicated from the human body and if it did come from an animal, those animals must be liquidated. If humanity fails to control this virus and we have to live with it everyday like we do the common cold viruses, our life expectancy will be significantly reduced. this deadly virus will also modify our behavior on many levels.
Governments don't want to send the public into a panic but billions are being designated to find a cure. Every lab capable of inventing a cure is at work. If any nation fails to control the virus, they will spend even more quarantining people, closing schools, other places of public gatherings, and closing even their economy in an effort to beat the virus just as China is doing now.
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521#definition
1/ most masks are STILL useless in preventing catching the virus -
BillyB
Have you self-isolated yourself -locked yourself away from physical contact with humanity based on your Armageddon wacko theories ?
In the meantime ..
1/ most masks are STILL useless in preventing catching the virus - if you knew you HAD the virus - they might prevent one spreading it .. if you changed the mask as soon as it was damp
2/ COVID-19 is a constantly mutating virus and those speaking of vaccines are talking out of their ..it's already been seen how one infected person, who infects another has a different strain
Your posts are akin to construction worker being put in charge of a micro-biology institute and making 'policy' ..
3/ How will any nation 'control' the virus ..?
CDC, hmmm..
In the case of the lone positive case of Covid-19 in California...
http://www.ucdavis.edu/news/coronavirus-patient-and-precautions-uc-davis-medical-center
...oh, and I'd like to add: "...low risk..." is still a *risk* just as 'almost dead is still alive'.
Sure enough, and just like that, it went from a lone positive case in California to 33 confirmed cases in just one day with active monitoring of 8,000 more. So the silly CDC hurried to change their silly criteria on testing protocol.seems like big news and that is somewhat buried...or what?
Good thing you've been put in charge of nothing.(http://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/Smileys/DarkB/cheesy.gif)
Masks can't stop a virus but masks stop airborne particles such as droplets from a sneeze the virus rides on. Maybe you believe people just sneeze out viruses all by themselves? A mask will stop most droplets if someone sneezes or coughs wearing one.Back in July 2018 I bought a pk of 50 surgical masks for 9.99 on ebay.
seems like big news and that is somewhat buried...or what?
The Moby crowd start writing articles.
.... so they decided not to test her for it. She went on as though she had the common flu and was not immediately quarantined.
From the info I have, it seems health agencies were rationing the specific COVID-19 tests to those known to have come in contact with China travelers or known infected patients.
Explanations for rationing:
- Test kits were in limited supply because most kits that had been shipped earlier had expired reagents.
- CDC limited the number of laboratories authorized to conduct the tests.
These screw-ups should not happen. More will be forthcoming on this issue.
Currently there is some concern that the virus could be polyphasic. Meaning you get the virus, get well, virus lies dormant, layer you get it again. Similar to Anthrax. Japan just had it's second case.the more I read the nastier this virus seems to be which is concerning. keep getting the same virus over again until it overwhelms the immune system and takes a person out. some people eliminated after one round others 2, 3 or 5 rounds. what a horrible thought.
Currently there is some concern that the virus could be polyphasic. Meaning you get the virus, get well, virus lies dormant, layer you get it again. Similar to Anthrax. Japan just had it's second case.
the more I read the nastier this virus seems to be which is concerning. keep getting the same virus over again until it overwhelms the immune system and takes a person out. some people eliminated after one round others 2, 3 or 5 rounds. what a horrible thought.
There's also a troubling video showing an American who got the virus on the cruise ship, 2 weeks later was cleared, then on Fox is seen coughing quite a bit, somewhat sweaty sharing a water bottle with his daughter.
Currently there is some concern that the virus could be polyphasic. Meaning you get the virus, get well, virus lies dormant, layer you get it again. Similar to Anthrax. Japan just had it's second case.
Reminds me of Spanish flu during WWI.Wow! M L .....Just how old are you bud?
The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colloquialism) known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic), the first of the two pandemics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemics) involving H1N1 influenza virus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1), with the second being the swine flu in 2009 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic).[1 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-1) It infected 500 million people around the world,[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-FOOTNOTETaubenbergerMorens2006-2) or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on isolated Pacific islands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_islands) and in the Arctic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic). The death toll is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics) in human history.[3] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-3)[4] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-4) Historical and epidemiological (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology) data are inadequate to identify with certainty the pandemic's geographic origin.[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-FOOTNOTETaubenbergerMorens2006-2)I got the Hong Kong flu in '68--- it kicked my ass!
The 1968 flu pandemic was a category 2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Severity_Index) flu pandemic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_pandemic) whose outbreak in 1968 and 1969 killed an estimated one million people worldwide.[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic#cite_note-1)[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic#cite_note-2)[3] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic#cite_note-3) It was caused by an H3N2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3N2) strain of the influenza A virus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus), descended from H2N2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2) through antigenic shift (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift), a genetic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetics) process in which genes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene) from multiple subtypes reassorted (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reassortment) to form a new virus. Because it originated in Hong Kong (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Hong_Kong), the pandemic is also referred to as Hong Kong flu.
"Maximum discipline", "Absolute Obedience" and loud speakers are being used to keep the virus from crossing the North Korean border. The whole country is under quarantine. Nobody in, nobody out. The people know the drill. They are no strangers to being locked down. In the photo everybody wears a mask except fearless Kim Jong Un who radiates strength and invincibility to his people. South Korea with over 2000 infected should use some of North Korea's methods of prevention.
http://www.yahoo.com/news/kim-warns-serious-consequences-virus-reaches-north-korea-005947594.html
He keeps trying. Hang on let me try old talk. HE couldn't SEE the similarities. Seeing his RIP will be GLORIOUS.
Blame China.
Since you invested in stocks, I'm sure you've taken a hit.
no, i don't blame china, unless it winds up being a bio weapon gone wild, which i don't think it is the case. virus's is a way of the world. reminds me of blaming trump, which also shouldn't be done either, in this case.
just so you understand people...
this disease is 50% more infectious than the flu
and twenty times more lethal....
"Let’s take one of the worst days so far – the 10th of February. Whilst we were enjoying our Public Holiday, 108 persons in CHINA died of Coronavirus.
BUT, on the same day
26,283 people died of Cancer
24,641 people died of Heart Disease
4,300 people died of Diabetes
and on that day, Suicide, unfortunately, took more lives than the virus did, by 28 times.
Moreover, Mosquitoes kill 2,740 people every day, HUMANS kill 1,300 fellow humans every day and Snakes kill 137 people every day."
"CORONAVIRUS IN NUMBERS…AND WHY WE REALLY SHOULDN’T PANIC"
So, why don't you tell us if you and your family have self isolated?))
China has been negligent. Regardless where this virus came from, it showed up last year and China did nothing except to silence those who were sounding the alarm. They let it get out of control in their country and into other countries affecting lives and economies. Although America has 66 infected, we are throwing billions of dollars to combat the problem and quarantining people last year but China didn't want to spend the money and hurt their reputation. Now they're going to spend a lot more money and take a bigger hit on reputation. If this problem was nipped at the bud, life would be fine. Now we have a real chance of living with this virus forever and it will alter our lives and economy forever.again blaming china for a virus, assuming it wasn't a weaponized virus is just silly. virus's happen, it has been that way since the beginning of time.
Based on your 'logic' and 'doomsday scenarios' you'd be MAD to go out...
again blaming china for a virus, assuming it wasn't a weaponized virus is just silly. virus's happen, it has been that way since the beginning of time.
Fires happen too. Let's say you got a small fire and call the fire department. They show up and a squirt of water in the kitchen would extinguish it but they say it's lunchtime and waste an hour eating. Instead of your kitchen getting burned up, your whole house burned down and you're angry. They respond "fires happen since the beginning of time. Don't blame us"
i don't see the situation as similar enough to use fire as a valid comparison.
i don't see the situation as similar enough to use fire as a valid comparison.
Where did I say for people to wear masks and stay at home?
Hmm is this the BillyB who thinks I've 'sentenced to death a Georgian border officer for telling her a surgical mask is next to useless .
I live life normally but I'm also aware how fast this thing can explode and will be prepared. Today the first American died from this virus in a hospital 30 minutes from where I live. Yesterday a teen who lives less than an hour away from me didn't travel and got infected from an unidentified person. This unidentified person can make this virus explode in my region. If an outbreak happens in America, I'm going to predict it'll happen in the Seattle region first. The recent events in Seattle are a sign an outbreak can happen soon as they will discover hundreds who may have gotten infected like the way it went down in South Korea, Iran, and Italy.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!
We're going to err on the side of caution. We're going to run this thing to the ground to make sure we understand it!
Today my county reported its first case of COVID-19, someone who had traveled recently to Italy.
The wife has gone bonkers as if the apocalypse surrounds us.
Today my county reported its first case of COVID-19, someone who had traveled recently to Italy.
The wife has gone bonkers as if the apocalypse surrounds us.
Studies revealed (not sure who actually stood there and counted this) that an average person touches his/her face 3,000 times/day.
I don't think you've sentence her to death. I think you're an idiot. She may deal with thousands of people everyday and you're increasing the chances she and others getting infected.
How did you get her to pull off her mask? Did you tell her you're an infectious disease doctor?
Today my county reported its first case of COVID-19, someone who had traveled recently to Italy.
The wife has gone bonkers as if the apocalypse surrounds us.
PLE-EASE Explain your 'theory' / 'thought process' that arrives at such a 'conclusion' - given wearing a surgical mask is NOT going to protect her ... and makes it MORE likely she could become ill ..
WHERE do you read the wearing of a mask is necessary / advised in Public Health advisories on this virus?
...My mom was at Costco yesterday and the lines were the longest she ever seen. A neighbor was at the nearest supermarket and there was no bottled water on the shelves...
I don't understand the water grab though. It isn't like water will stop running off your faucets.
You're an idiot. There are people, such as that border agent that deals with the public. If management and infectious disease experts tell their employees to wear masks, you have no business to tell them the masks are useless. If an epidemic hits your town, you can run around without a mask as you please and get yourself killed but leave safety measures to the experts. Life is tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid.
So to ensure she doesn't get the virus, make sure she refrains from touching her face...she can start modestly and be diligent at least for the first few minutes see how she fares after 24 hours.
Upon arrival she sprays me with Lysol, and it has to rest for 30 seconds before I wash it off.
My wife sprays Lysol after I use the bathroom to kill the stink. Fortunately she doesn't spray it on me. Lysol says on the can it kills cold and flu viruses. If you want your wife to stop spraying it on you, tell her the viruses are in the inside of your body, not outside. That might be a bad idea though if she decides to inject Lysol into your veins.
...tell her the viruses are in the inside of your body, not outside.
Regarding a vaccine, maybe next year.
Well, BillyB if you feel 'safer' wearing a respirator for protection, especially living in close proximity with the highest number of covid-19 cases in the country, you should.one of my silly adorable daughters ordered a bunch of the good facemasks online for all of us. i think it is nice caring gesture. I don't suspect they will ever get used, and if it comes to that, i think there will be big problems for the nation.
Now, if taking CDC's recommendation regarding respirators (face mask), just make sure it's rated as a 95, or better, a 99. Designation shown below from CDC's website:
one of my silly adorable daughters ordered a bunch of the good facemasks online for all of us. i think it is nice caring gesture. I don't suspect they will ever get used, and if it comes to that, i think there will be big problems for the nation.
Fathertime!
here's my take...
covid-19 has a 50% higher R0 or reproducibility rate than this yea's flu virus
the epidemic is entering a new phase in the USA
we think that this means that there are about 1,500 hidden unknown carriers of covid-19 in the USA right now
we are now in a race with the clock, the disease has established a local reservoir in the USA
the only question is, "how fast is it going to grow"? ....a linear stage and an exponential stage...
but what happens next October, when the flu season starts up again?
what will the infection rates be then?
Well, BillyB if you feel 'safer' wearing a respirator for protection, especially living in close proximity with the highest number of covid-19 cases in the country, you should.
Billy, if it'll make you feel any better, wifey tells me that her sisters in Germany and Canada just sent her pictures of their respective empty shelves for hand sanitizers. So she went to our drugstores and marts and saw the same thing. Empty shelves. She asked me to go search for it around where I work - same result.
Walmart, Target, CVS, Amazon, etc...pooof! Out of stock.
The shelf for those pocket and smaller sized disinfectant wipes is nearly gone, too.
Ever heard of a phrase: 'Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it'?
I have more than a few in my work SUV at our immediate disposal because these are vital components of our overall safety program (IIPP). Safety glasses, gloves, safety vest, hard hat, boots, etc...
But there will be Jokers like Moby who go around to government employees who work in public settings and to hospitals telling medical workers their masks don't work. Why do people conclude they are the authority on something after reading the news?
Because they studied Biology to an advanced level ( specialising in genetics) and understand .. Gosh these jokers aren't in biz with micro-biologists and retired surgeons .... We haven't been travelling around parts of Europe and Asia - 'marvelling' at the antics of some govts to 'control' said virus ..?
I'm of the opinion that it's better to get it .. and be done - rather than wait until it might be the health service is over-stretched..
We're not changing our life-style worrying about something that's far less likely to end us than being in a RTA..
You know those guys personally? They must be as nutty as you.
Governments are issuing out masks to health care workers who are handling infected patients. Why don't you visit those hospitals and tell them medical professionals the protective gear they're wearing is useless and see what they say?
http://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-03/battling-coronavirus-california-distributing-millions-of-face-masks-to-health-care-providers
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-needs-millions-face-masks-not-very-effective-preventing-coronavirus-2020-2
Go get it and you might be done done. Also the virus won't be done with you. You can keep catching it. Rich Chinese are bribing guards to get their families out of quarantined cities. I'm sure you can bribe a guard to get into one of those cities to get your virus.
Today WHO announced the death rate is at 3.4% and higher than previously thought! They were guessing previously? All of a sudden the death rate jumped 70% worldwide! When the virus came out, it was claimed it's not deadlier than the flu which kill .1% of the people it infects. Later this corona virus was thought to kill 2%. Now modern nations are reporting much higher death rates than China to bring up the death rate to 3.4% worldwide which is 34 times deadlier than the flu. I can tell you that is still a low number.
http://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html
Today at the John Hopkins website that keeps track of this virus, reported 2,647,665 infections worldwide for a short time it and then it got changed back into the 90k range. Somebody making an effort to get the truth out? Hacker games?
It's people like you that makes it hard to stop the virus. I got a worker who goes to the bar a lot. Kisses and sleeps with various women a lot. I told him to change his behavior if he wants to be around me. Pick a girl and go exclusive with her for a short time.
People don't have to stop living but everybody needs to participate to prevent the virus being spread recklessly. China, South Korea, Italy, and Dubai have closed all schools. Governments expect stupid to happen so they take action. Quit being stupid. Maybe you don't care about your life but at least care about others.
I highlighted in bold the relevant part ... INFECTED PATIENTS ... Are they wearing them in the street, or when they go off duty ... ?
Many cases of the Virus are so mild - they aren't reported / known to BE a notifiable case.. so the numbers are lower ..
as of last night the carona virus has suddenly sprung up a few miles away, walking distance. I suppose I'll casually stock up a bit on some of the essentials.
As a side note, one of the lines of products I have for sale is exercise equipment, over the past few weeks there has been a lot more sales than expected. I conclude that people are staying out of the gym, and choosing to exercise at home away from other people and the corona virus.
Fathertime!
So you want to revise your previous statement that masks don't work? Seems like you're acknowledging they will stop the virus when near an infected patient.
Right now, Italy reports 107 dead and 276 recovered after a battle with the virus. That's a 28% death rate for them at this moment which means it's 280 times more deadlier than the flu.
The Chinese province of Zhejiang of near the same population as Italy reports 1 dead and 1124 people recovered. .09% death rate which means less people there are dying from this virus than the flu.
Now you can continue to believe the Chinese has some kind of super immune system over Italians but I will continue to state Chinese severely under reports how bad the virus is. So while mortality rates are extremely high in most other nations, the Chinese brings death rate way down since they have the bulk of the cases so WHO now concludes death rate is 3.4%. I trust the Italian numbers more than the Chinese. As the rest of the world increases infections, deaths and recoveries and add more weight to offset the low Chinese death rate, you can expect WHO to revise the death rates even higher.
Hi FT !Hey Mooby!
We had a case around here weeks ago... the teacher had it... brought it from SE Asia .. No one has caught it the school is open again .. You'll be fine ;)
Took Mum to the local General Practitioners Surgery - she had an ear infection ... NO staff wearing masks - just lots of WASH YOUR HANDS..
WHO figures for Italy 4th March :
Confirmed cases: 2502, Deaths 80 - that's 3.8 percent
Data on number of cases is suspect because of limited capacity for lab tests. A couple of sources have said only 500 Americans have been subjected to lab tests.
Those with a high fever and no respiratory symptoms were probably misdiagnosed as something other than COVID-19 unless confirmed by lab tests.
Thus, death rate estimates are also suspect. We will know more in 1-2 weeks.
You don't seem to understand
I asked you, yesterday, where you sourced your WHO 'statement' re a higher percentage re mortality and you've not responded - other than producing BillyB Bollox data..
Now let's check WHO.int numbers for today ..
Based on reported cases v Deaths ..
China = 3.7%
and
the Rest of the World ..1.8%
I say again, anyone calculating a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is pushing the existing data too far. Not only are the data limited if not suspect, the data are not comparable (apples and oranges) from nation to nation. For example, Iran's initially reported 2 cases and 2 deaths - that's a 100% CFR.
At this very early stages of any pandemic, any report that tries to establish a kill rate ratio (averaging method) will always be flawed, BillyB. There were 3 infected people in California reported recently, and yesterday apparently one of them died. A 33% kill ratio?
This can become a worldwide plague that will make the history books unless we stop it soon.
...Back in January I factored the under reporting of China and death rate from the small sample, learned the characteristics of this virus, and learned a vaccine/cure many never happen, I sounded the alarm back then. This virus is really bad shit and could kill billions if Italy's and South Korea's death to recovery ratio holds. Numbers may go down a little since the best doctors and respirators to assist breathing are helping currently infected people beat the virus but if it gets out of control and everybody got the virus, there's not enough best doctors and respiratory equipment to go around so the death rate will skyrocket if humanity can't control the virus. This can become a worldwide plague that will make the history books unless we stop it soon.
... if this is a new viral strain, how could China determine how to test it, much less how to differentiate a person sick of the common flu from those on coronavirus?
Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office
31 December 2019
At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China. According to the authorities, some patients were operating dealers or vendors in the Huanan Seafood market.
Staying in close contact with national authorities, WHO began monitoring the situation and requested further information on the laboratory tests performed and the different diagnoses considered.
I need to ask, if this is a new viral strain, how could China determine how to test it, much less how to differentiate a person sick of the common flu from those on coronavirus?
Everything moved quickly after that obscure report.
It's actually easy to test. If doctors don't recognize it being a cold, flu or any type of virus they've ever seen, it's the new guy on the block. Did you read the translated Chinese article on the other thread I provided? Sept 18, 2019 article reported a man in Wuhan was discovered to have a corona virus that was never seen before. When a new bacteria, virus, animal, plant or whatever is discovered, it's supposed to be big news unless it's suppressed. Also other articles I provided said the virus showed up December 8 which is why doctors sounded the alarm before China notified WHO....
But again, what would be the point of concealing a 'new' virus from the scientific community? Pride? If politics, what would be the point?
Forget the Chinese, judge our own for a minute (CDC). Despite already being alarmed by what allegedly China had done, and the fact we are supposed to be a more clinically advanced than China, we still couldn't move fast enough, or properly enough, to put out test kits on time and/or what it is that needed to be done to determine every facets of what needed to be studied. Heck, look at the test criteria CDC gave before a test can be conducted? Again, this is way after the madness in China kicked in.
China was obviously in the dark in the first days of this disease outbreak. To illustrate the following is the first account the UN WHO reported about the disease.
Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office
31 December 2019
At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China.
Everything moved quickly after that obscure report.
The CDC started to ship test kits over a month ago. Back then, there were no outbreaks in America but the CDC was getting prepared for one. The problem was a regent in the test kits that made them faulty so it was wasted time and money. Back to the drawing board. I don't blame government on that. Government hired pharmaceutical companies, doctors and scientists to create the products the American public needs. They are human and mistakes happen.
As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.
The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses. But when it was sent to labs across the country in the first week of February, it didn’t work as expected. The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples.
That's not exactly what was reported, BillyB. We (CDC) decided to extricate itself from the global partnership and conduct their own testing method. Instead of partnering and sharing results and information, IIRC, CDC wanted to not only create a test kits to isolate COVID-19, but create a kit to also identify a wider range of viral pathogens.
http://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test
This seem to fly in the face of what you seem to be saying about China's slow reaction to the infection.
Global partnership? How many countries decided to WHO's guidelines instead of their own? I put a link up earlier that showed the first CDC's test kits had a faulty regent. It's a manufacturing defect which was corrected. Problem didn't have nothing to do with not following guidelines. The CDC doesn't need to follow the WHO's guidelines to make a properly working kit which we already have now.
Didn't see anywhere in the article that compliments China for a fast reaction to the infection. Taiwan reacted to the virus before China announced the newly discovered virus to the world. That's fast.
It's *reagent*. WHO is the scientific/medical global partnership. If you don't like this description, you can call it any other name you'd like. I, nor anyone in the article cited, mentioned anything about not following guidelines. What it reported was, CDC decided to conduct testing methodology on it's own instead of partnering with the WHO, global community, or whatever you want to name it.
As a consequence, it failed. The CDC applied methodology FAILED. Set them back weeks...whether you'd like to believe the report or not is entirely up to you.
I've searched, although not intensely, as to how those in the cruise ship in California got infected. Does anyone know?
No, but seems weird that of the 21 infected, 19 were crew members. The crews on these ships can be huge, numbering over 1,000.
Since the majority of infected are crew members, it could mean the infected passengers that infected them were on the previous cruise and those passengers are already back home all over America.
Billy, you are beginning to sound like Krimster.
Most deaths are occurring in elderly folks with underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems. Most of those infected outside 3rd world countries have symptoms of the common flu viruses and get over it naturally.
I would expect a decrease in the rate of transmission soon because of the change in temp
but then when flu season starts in October, I expect this to EXPLODE....
3 numbers really determine the mortality rate of a virus...
the first is R0, or reproducibility rate, the number of people on average a single infected person will infect...
this virus has is a 50% higher R0 then the common version of flu
next number is virulence, this virus is over 40 times more deadly than the flu and skews towards older people...
last is the size of the number infected, common flu can infect about 5% of a given population in just one season...that's 15 million, here in the US of A
If every person on earth got to experience this new virus once, we'd wish we had the flu instead.
I am guessing BillyB doesn't realise that many people hardly know they've had it ...
I have a feeling medics know and report, accordingly...
YOU blamed the Chinese ...
CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html) advises the elderly to stock up on supplies and stay home as much as possible.
This is a great idea! For one, it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝
When will the world have therapeutic treatment for COVID-19?
Germany's Merkel warned that up to 70% of the country's population could become infected.For those that have been pooh pooh'ing the potential of this virus, the numbers and latest reactions should be a signal that this may wind up being extremely serious. I recall reading numerous times how this was killing so much less than the flu, or comparing abortions to the number of deaths.
Her point, and a good one, is that Germany needs to take measures not to prevent the outbreak but to slow it. Otherwise the Germany healthcare system will be overwhelmed. Does she plan to follow the Italy model?
it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝
One possible treatment is to use pharmaceuticals intended to counteract autoimmune diseases, because many of the COVID-19 deaths result from overreaction by the body's natural autoimmune system. Thus, one such pharmaceutical is that used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Although not approved by FDA, it has been given to some patients on a "mercy" basis, and it was beneficial.
Supposedly those patients who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection have developed an immunity to contracting future infection.
I'm going to carry on for another day today. Going to be doing some driving through LA/IE today. I'll be curious to see if traffic is any different. I come in contact with a lot of people, and due to this I'd expect to catch the virus at some point if the numbers are correct. Maybe I survive but others around me most certainly would not, and the potential of that is disturbing enough to at least give me a moment's pause...nevertheless going to carry on for now. If clusters start to pop up in this area, I think I would indeed have to then reassess and perhaps button down, at which point everyone else would probably do the same, and the dreaded TP shortage would ruin my enjoyment of a good crap...among other things.
This is a great idea! For one, it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝
Not much traffic jams in Seattle right now. Feels nice but if people continue to lose school and work, the economy will suffer.
Then I mentioned and speculated about the Asiatic regions' love for their wet markets aka snake alleys, where there's a section of the markets where caged live animals of all types are offered and prepared as fresh meat, and I wasn't too far off apparently...
So, not a Chinese biolab error?..
BillyB...you have posted SO much nonsense re this virus...
So, not a Chinese biolab error?..
BillyB...you have posted SO much nonsense re this virus...
pot, meet kettle.
I'm sorry .. you may have taken a break from here ..perhaps you missed myself and others pointing out Billy's statistical flaws - with examples ..
'Surprise' me with a reasoned argument that my point was incorrect ..
Billy, did it ever occurred to you that if there’s any ounce of truth in your story that the Chinese government would immediately skin this scientist alive for inventing a weapon that only kills old farts with underlying medical condition to boot!?!
Could, but would it change your opinion with infallible evidence such as a Doc you know who knows these things and how he knows better than the CDC or WHO?
Especially after that was proven wrong? Likely not. Didn't you say it's best to get infected and get the infection over with to build an Immunity?
I heard your Health Minister just caught it. Perhaps you could illuminate her on how the Flu is worse and we need a herd immunity ASAP.
Inattentive, as ever .. The Doc / Micro-biologist in question are EXACTLY the type of people YOU should be listening to ...
I meant there might be a school of thought to get it EARLY.. as if there is a storm like in Italy .. if one gets respiratory problems - you'd stand less of chance of recovery ...
Once again, inattentive
'A' health minister ... not THE head of the Ministry ..
She's at home - not a hospital ..
Three strikes for inattentiveness
Shame this isn't baseball
Based on previous scores you'd be with a .000 average past Brexit.
Also, how accurate was that school of thought? The one you proposed after speaking to your MD and former MD colleagues who said it was a Flu and not to worry?
So, no 'counter' with any facts to support your drive-by troll ..?
I'm not worried .. I'm not in the 'at high risk' age group..
Flu' kills 1000's of elderly ppl in the UK, annually
pot, meet kettle.That might be an insult to pots and pans.
What is the coronavirus from China and what are the symptoms?http://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-what-are-symptoms-fast-facts-china-wuhan-virus-death-toll/
The Communist leadership over there said knock it off or we will get no more medicines [97% made in China]
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-what-are-symptoms-fast-facts-china-wuhan-virus-death-toll/
Most of those videos have been removed in compliance with Beijing's orders.
Mark my words...Mr Joe Biden will bow to the Chinese ---his butt in the air.
That might be an insult to pots and pans.
The latest squawk from the left [CNN CBS MSMBC pundits] is that Republicans.. conservative news.. and Trump supporters are RACIST...calling the virus CHINESE. Thing is these hypocrites were saying that themselves back in January --- The Chinese virus..the Wuhan virus..etc
The Communist leadership over there said knock it off or we will get no more medicines [97% made in China]
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-what-are-symptoms-fast-facts-china-wuhan-virus-death-toll/
Most of those videos have been removed in compliance with Beijing's orders.
Mark my words...Mr Joe Biden will bow to the Chinese ---his butt in the air.
That might be an insult to pots and pans.
Dammit TF, when I'm back in Texas we gotta meet so I can buy you (and yours) a beer.
world health organization praised china for it's response to the virus...it seems that those in the know disagree with how you are directing your anger.
Fathertime!
world health organization praised china for it's response to the virus...
WHO gave their praise Jan 9 after China reported the virus showed up Dec 31.
http://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-who-statement-regarding-cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china
After praising China for quickly identifying and managing the situation so it doesn't get out of control they said "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers. WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the information currently available."
Basically WHO gave everybody the green light to vacation in China which lost control of a situation that evolved into an epidemic. China didn't allow WHO's scientists and doctors in to evaluate the situation and help stop the virus so WHO took their word that they had it under control. When WHO was refused to evaluate the situation for themselves, it should've raised a big red flag and warnings to the international community should've started earlier.
WHO gave their praise Jan 9 after China reported the virus showed up Dec 31.as trump said during his little speech, 'virus have been around for a long time'. In this situation look at how little has been done in the US to this point. We (Along with other nations) have had weeks if not months to take a drastic yet possibly necessary action as china did. We didn't. All these weeks/months have gone by, china can't be blamed for that. Some were even critical when china quarantined 100's of millions of their people. They took the right approach, while we (The US) may have been downplaying the virus the whole time. As we speak, I'm reading comments from trump fans still stating how the whole virus is a big hoax and exaggeration. As is usual, there is plenty of blame that we (The US) can take for our own delayed and potentially inadequate response.
http://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-who-statement-regarding-cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china
After praising China for quickly identifying and managing the situation so it doesn't get out of control they said "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers. WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the information currently available."
Basically WHO gave everybody the green light to vacation in China which lost control of a situation that evolved into an epidemic. China didn't allow WHO's scientists and doctors in to evaluate the situation and help stop the virus so WHO took their word that they had it under control. When WHO was refused to evaluate the situation for themselves, it should've raised a big red flag and warnings to the international community should've started earlier.
as trump said during his little speech, 'virus have been around for a long time'. In this situation look at how little has been done in the US to this point. We (Along with other nations) have had weeks if not months to take a drastic yet possibly necessary action as china did. We didn't. All these weeks/months have gone by, china can't be blamed for that. Some were even critical when china quarantined 100's of millions of their people. They took the right approach, while we (The US) may have been downplaying the virus the whole time. As we speak, I'm reading comments from trump fans still stating how the whole virus is a big hoax and exaggeration. As is usual, there is plenty of blame that we (The US) can take for our own delayed and potentially inadequate response.
Fathertime!
Fathertime,If we let the likes of good old Mooby travel here who knows how many people he will infect with his hard head, fists, and toilet paper. It seems odd to ban European travel, yet not UK. Has to be for political reasons, nothing else makes sense.
As a Trump supporter we typically don't agree. But Let's assume today. There's 12 infected would you say inadequate? As the MOST (moobs enhanced) traveled through country yet still only having 1,300 6 weeks later. Would you say that's decent? If not? Please tell me what is your definition of winning? I want to know so I can contact my official.
And possibly, if China did the right approach? What would the left have done if you were infected and took you away? Would they be happy?
in re: to this "have had weeks if not months to take a drastic yet possibly necessary action as china did." exactly what drastic measures are you talking about? I assume like Bernie. Best in theory and not practice.
world health organization praised china for it's response to the virusOf course they would--- both WHO and China live off your dime
it seems that those in the know disagree with how you are directing your anger"In the know"? (http://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/Smileys/DarkB/undecided.gif)
Of course they would--- both WHO and China live off your dime "(http://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/Smileys/DarkB/undecided.gif)While I work very hard, I think I live well off of china's dime actually....
In this situation look at how little has been done in the US to this point.
FT, although WHO praised China in January, Trump imposed major flight restrictions on China in January. Article below. If you check anti Trump fact checking truth o meter sites, they will tell you Trump is lying about travel ban but evidence below that Trump took action in January.I wouldn't compare trump to democrats who aren't in the office of the president...i'd compare trumps actions to what his actions could have been. I'm not necessarily being critical of trump at this point, but reality is, if he knew the virus was extremely serious, some will say he didn't take enough steps to protect americans. Others might continue to state that the virus isn't much different than the flu and we are already doing too much.
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/business/china-travel-coronavirus.html
http://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel-restrictions/
A few days later States complain about Trump's new rules that happened suddenly creating chaos and Democrats criticize there's no prior planning to him making a decision. I guess they wanted Trump to wait longer before enacting the restrictions. Are there any articles out there show Democrats would've taken action faster?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/03/coronavirus-airport-quarantine/
... but reality is, if he knew the virus was extremely serious, some will say he didn't take enough steps to protect americans.He suggested right away possibly stopping flights from China and the Main Slime Media blasted these "heartless" remarks.
Considering WHO was telling other nations trade and travel to and from China is fine, America still took action stopping flights and is not as bad off as Europe. Our spy agencies were probably listening on phone calls of Chinese government officials losing control and planning a coverup. Time will let us know how bad we got hit but so far, Europe has a much higher infection rate than America does.
BillyB
Which Schegen nation banned flights to/ from China first....WAY ahead of other EU nations..
How has that worked out for them...?
Surely, it wasn't Italy?...
I just now watched CNN Chis Cuomo coverage of Trump's speech.
Cuomo remarked less about the substance and more about Trump's breathing and body language. Acosta of course accused Trump of misleading the public, having to walk back some lies, xenophobia, etc. David Gregory partially defended Trump, yet criticized him for not showing empathy about the Italians. Gupta just gave the facts, useful facts.
You're obviously doing well mobs. 10x your size and yet? Let us know next week sweet cheeks.
BillyB
Which Schengen nation banned flights to/ from China first....WAY ahead of other EU nations..
How has that worked out for them...?
Surely, it wasn't Italy?...
Banning flights from China is not enough. The Chinese can then just get a flight to Germany and then fly into Italy. That is why Trump is banning not just flights but also individuals that pass through or lives in China and now many European nations regardless of what flight they are on.
I see from quotes that RWD's anti-American baldy from California has been blaming Trump and touting China.Humorous distortion. The US has to take the blame for not acting sooner if the virus was deemed as dangerous as it seems to be now. I remember Billyb commenting a long time ago at it's severity, if Billyb knew, why didn't the US top leadership know?
In summary, the Chinese were more interested in "production" than "prevention," and the world is reaping the whirlwind.what could also be said is the US and trump were more interested in the economy then saving US lives. We could have taken steps much sooner but choose not to.
Yes, the Chinese took draconian measures, something only an autocratic government could implement. But it was too late. The only good news is that China now reports data suggesting they are beginning to contain the epidemic within their borders.
Banning flights from China is not enough. The Chinese can then just get a flight to Germany and then fly into Italy. That is why Trump is banning not just flights but also individuals that pass through or lives in China and now many European nations regardless of what flight they are on.
Why can't we work together as we face this vicious pathogen, a pathogen that treats Republican and Democrats equally. Why do we need to recall how China put the world at risk:
I stopped wondering a day after last general election.How mean!
Don't mind FT so much...when things gets down and dirty due to lockdowns, you can trust the fact he'll be first in line to file for Trump's economic assistance program.
Er, do you think Italy doesn't know / didn't know how / when a Chinese national arrived in the Schengen zone ?
You said Italy had a flight ban. So that means flights coming from China are banned but flights from Germany are not banned. If I were a Chinese national and had an important business trip or vacation to Italy I didn't want to miss, I would just schedule a flight to Germany and then fly on a German plane into Italy. If you can find where Italy banned individuals, Chinese or not, that came China like Trump did, please show me.
How mean!
I recently could have filed for workman’s comp due to recent injuries on the job but didn’t ask for a thin dime. I have no reason or intent to take trump federal funds if they become available. I have plenty to survive even if business goes down the crapper with my dwindling stockpile of TP. If things were to be so bad as to force me into insolvency the nation would be in extreme distress and federal dollars wouldn’t matter much anyway. If need be I’ll just buy TP from Billyb or Trenchcoat at their bloated capitalist pricing.
Fathertime!
Aylward said he had “phenomenal confidence in the ability of the U.S. to get this under control,” noting how many epidemiologists in China — which has succeeded in minimizing new cases — had trained in the United States.
“They know how to do this stuff," he said of the U.S. experts. “And they've trained thousands of people across the U.S. to get organized. You mobilize that army, and you beat this most recent of enemies.”
Naturally, I am aware ppl circumvented Italy's ban...as will those who can fly via non Schengen nations...
But you were bragging that Italy took quick action. They took quick action
Democrat Dark Money Groups To Spend Millions Politicizing Wuhan Flu
That will be a new low. We should not expect less from such a miserable lot of people.If anything, it is the republicans that sound utterly miserable.
To set this up, the media must first scare the people. And they are trying! Did you hear the reporter today ask Trump if he was "scared." Trump jumped all over his ass.
That will be a new low. We should not expect less from such a miserable lot of people.
To set this up, the media must first scare the people. And they are trying! Did you hear the reporter today ask Trump if he was "scared." Trump jumped all over his ass.
I am beginning to think reporters are the most stupid idiots in our society.
Moving on, the latest bill that was passed should’ve included premium pay for all the medical personnel currently doing battle with this virus. Not only because of the constant hazard, long hours but also the fact they are also putting their own family in harms way every time they come home if they haven’t made personnel to separate themselves during this crisis.
We’ve tried to give our VA great leeway lately and methinks these folks are on the same battle fronts as our soldiers.
A good question I could ask my golfing friend Doc with the VA ER. I haven't seen him in a month.
Take care.... I need to have someone to fight over a bone with ....
I welcome a scientific challenge. Spirited political debate and the ramblings by autistic members are not helpful.
Ah, yes ... 'Scientific' like your President's 'hunches' and drug recommendations ? ...
MORE GOOD NEWS IN THE HEALTH INDUSTRY
.........
Therapeutic Drugs - FDA yesterday gave two anti-malaria drugs emergency approval to treat COVID-19 . This possibility was discussed at RWD earlier. The approval allows 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and 1 million doses of chloroquine phosphate to be donated to the Strategic National Stockpile. The doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate were donated by Sandoz, while the chloroquine phosphate was developed by Bayer Pharmaceuticals.
The products will be "distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," HHS said.
...
California, which has more than 4,600 cases, is a microcosm for how inconsistent the distribution of information has been during the pandemic. Los Angeles County provides a rough age distribution of patients and breaks down the cases into more than 140 cities and communities. On Friday, for example, the county reported 21 cases in Beverly Hills, 28 in the city of Santa Monica and 49 in the neighborhood of Melrose.
Across the United States there is even less consistency. New York is listing cases by age bracket, gender and borough despite calls for more localized reporting. Connecticut lists data by town. Florida provides its residents with a wealth of data on the pandemic. The state’s Department of Health has a detailed dashboard and reports showing the spread of the virus — rich with data on the cities affected, the number of people tested, the age brackets of patients, whether they are Florida residents, and the number of cases in nursing homes.
Health departments in the Bay Area make the case that releasing more granular data could heighten discrimination against certain communities where there might be clusters. The first cases in the Bay Area were among ethnic Chinese residents returning from trips to China.
“Pandemics increase paranoia and stigma,” said Dr. Rohan Radhakrishna, the deputy health officer of Contra Costa County, across the Bay from San Francisco, which provides only the total number of cases in the county on its website. “We must be extra cautious in protecting individuals and the community.”
In Santa Clara, health officials say they cannot disclose how many cases are found in each city because of the nation’s strict medical privacy law, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, or HIPAA, signed by President Bill Clinton in 1996....
GQ,
This one help?
http://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/
Can also use http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and drill down using the Admin2 tab.
Can also use http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and drill down using the Admin2 tab.
Yes, the Florida site is pretty nice. http://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/74c7375b03894e68920c2d0131eef1e6
Trump and Co briefing happening right now. Over a million tests completed which is more than any nation has done. Over 100,000 tests happening each day now which is more daily testing than any other nation is doing.
Trump said as manufacturing of ventilators outpace our needs, we will send ventilators to Italy, France, Spain and other countries. Trump also said he will send other supplies to Italy.
NO WAY!!!
Trump is terrible and wants everyone to die!!
Especially the poor and minorities!!
I am sure useful supplies will be appreciated but hope a drop in demand over the next 10 days or so won't necessitate more ventilators.
I am sure useful supplies will be appreciated but hope a drop in demand over the next 10 days or so won't necessitate more ventilators.
NO WAY!!!What can be said is that Trump doesn't want everybody to vote!
Trump is terrible and wants everyone to die!!
Especially the poor and minorities!!
Don't know about the rest of the country, but the weather in So Cal is beautiful today. 75 deg F. It's days like this during the shutdown that I can take advantage of it and get some long overdue projects done. The streets are mostly empty and even in the neighborhood there are very few people out walking which is unusual. Seems like most people in the area are respecting the quarantine in place orders.Today I thought there were less people out and about. Another guy I spoke with today said he thought there was more. The freeway was smooth sailing not much different than last week. I had two hot younger ladies come into my shop drinking Budweiser beer while driving on the road, and ready to 'party it up' with me if I had any interest. That's what I get for not wearing my stupid mask today.
We will overcome this epidemic.
Hopefully Italy and the rest of Europe's curve dramatically decreases soon to the point you won't need help. ...
What can be said is that Trump doesn't want everybody to vote!
Trump says Democrats' push for expanded voting threatens Republicans
....Trump said that Democrat-proposed voting reforms to the $2.2 trillion rescue package passed last week by Congress — which were largely cut from the deal — would have led to “levels of voting, that if you ever agreed to it you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”
Democrats have pushed to mandate that states make plans to expand early voting and mail-in balloting for the fall election, in the event that the coronavirus pandemic makes in-person voting unsafe.....
http://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-democrats-push-for-expanded-voting-threatens-republicans-172601374.html (http://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-democrats-push-for-expanded-voting-threatens-republicans-172601374.html)
Fathertime!
Do me a freaking favor and post your silly political BS ..
Why do you feel so compelled to trot your stupid anti-US thoughts everywhere? Do you not get enough attention at home?
What am I missing here? Even if you project comparable number of months for COVID-19, it would still fall short to the Influenza's toll in comparison.
What can be said is that Trump doesn't want illegals, dead people
or people to vote more than once!
Fathertime!
GQ,
Is a good question. The answer is pretty simple though - the unknown. We don't know much about this virus at all vs decades of experience with influenza for which we have vaccines (albeit not perfect) and meds that help. We also know it is seasonal. Our healthcare systems are set up to handle the aftermath of the flu. We obviously do not have the capacities to handle this new virus.
Also, note that most of the population does not get it and signs are (HK) that it may easily come back for more, and more, and more. We don't know if it will be a seasonal thing. We don't really know yet how long immunity lasts. Although the virus seems pretty stable, we don't know if it might morph, making future vaccines useless or if it can become even more dangerous.
Left to run on its own, it could easily slam dunk influenza all year long.
COVID-19 US STATISTICS (http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
2018-2019 US INFLUENZA STATISTICS (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html)
What am I missing here? Even if you project comparable number of months for COVID-19, it would still fall short to the Influenza's toll in comparison.
It's easy GQ. Everybody in the world experienced influenza multiple times in their lives. Only 780,000 confirmed people experience COVID-19 and out of a world population that's 1 out of every 10,000 people or .0001% of the population of the world. While 100% of the people in the world experiences influenza, it doesn't fill up our hospitals but .0001% experiencing COVID-19 will start to overwhelm hospitals. Multiply the problems you see now by 10,000 by giving everybody a taste of COVID-19, it's easy to see what will happen.
It's easy GQ. Everybody in the world experienced influenza multiple times in their lives. Only 780,000 confirmed people experience COVID-19 and out of a world population that's 1 out of every 10,000 people or .0001% of the population of the world. While 100% of the people in the world experiences influenza, it doesn't fill up our hospitals but .0001% experiencing COVID-19 will start to overwhelm hospitals. Multiply the problems you see now by 10,000 by giving everybody a taste of COVID-19, it's easy to see what will happen.
anything COVID-19 causes today will simply be 'an additional' burden to current hospitalization demand.
Dude!Dude! You can't handle it then don't read it. I was responding to another political statement. Just because you have a bias, doesn't give you authority to selectively call out political statements from one side and not the other and think it will carry any weight with me.
Do me a freaking favor and post your silly political BS in quasi-Brexit II/msmob trenchcoat dialogue thread (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=d4e5e036b55873ed21393db0511d598e&topic=24217.msg530917;topicseen#new) please..
Or if you feel lacking and out of place for ruining that thread, then post your pro-China BS in this thread (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=21530.msg530899#new).
If all else fails, learn f@#king mandarin, and start freely posting your thoughts in some CCP chat sites, man.
Why do you feel so compelled to trot your stupid anti-US thoughts everywhere? Do you not get enough attention at home?
I fixed that for you
Dude! You can't handle it then don't read it. I was responding to another political statement. Just because you have a bias, doesn't give you authority to selectively call out political statements from one side and not the other and think it will carry any weight with me.
Clearly you don't get enough attention, so I'll be delighted to continue to give you plenty to comment angrily about. :D
Fathertime!
Here you go!Sorry you are stuck with me here in the states. You would like to stifle effective dissent . It is easy to stifle idiotic dissent, but the recent objection I made regarding direct comments by Trump not wanting people to vote is too egregious to argue on that topic so let the distraction begin.
http://www.century21global.com/for-sale-residential/China/Wuhan
Manufacturers work every day to make driving in cars safer and law enforcement always increases efforts to remove unsafe drivers from our roads. In other words we are for a good part 'in control' and have ways to make driving safer.
Doing nothing (as in staying home) - which is what most of us are doing now is a very unusual 'cure' we are not used to.
As for the media, it's the biggest story in a long time.
I had just finished listening to California's Governor Newsom. I am encouraged that at least for the time being the nation's governors, at least most of them, are donning *American* instead of (R)/(D)/(I).
How big was the Spanish Flu news story in 1918-1919? Killed 40-50 million around the globe. No TV then, little mitigation.The largest of them all - God Forbid - the Bubonic Plague (14thC). Estimated to have killed 30 - 50% of Europe's population.
From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just the month of October (http://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-deaths-october-1918). And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave of the Spanish flu exhibited what’s called a “W curve”—high numbers of deaths among the young and old, but also a huge spike in the middle composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.
As for the media, it's the biggest story in a long time.
How big was the Spanish Flu news story in 1918-1919? Killed 40-50 million around the globe. No TV then, little mitigation.
The largest of them all - God Forbid - the Bubonic Plague (14thC). Estimated to have killed 30 - 50% of Europe's population.
But Dr. Fauci is on the Trump bandwagon of giving people hope.
Giving 'hope' wasn't about telling folks there'd be nothing to worry about ...
As of right now, I've been fairly disappointed in how our state fares regarding giving up-to-date information to its residents. ....The one I liked so far is Sonoma County. Here's their Coronavirus reporting website: Sonoma County (http://sonomacounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=21a1653b79ba42039ff22bcb85fa5b19)
You are still dwelling on politics?!?!
For miserable old men like you, the "half-full glass" approach will not work. Miserable old men die alone, in their own piss and shit.
Now I realize the moderator protects this particular poster
but can't we at least have a thread without 'him' pestering every thread with his stupid political stupidity? It is an absurdity with the fact this idiot is NOT even a citizen, or a resident of the US, including not even being IN the country.
Why is this crap allowed to happen for this idiot? Everyone, please DO NOT FEED THE TROLL! Let him wallow in his own misery...alone. *Happy* people just don't do this sh!t.
Interesting how often a few of the more miserable old men of the board either wish death upon someone or hint at it in graphic terms. Willing to say this all over a political disagreement. interesting, and telling
For miserable old men like you, the "half-full glass" approach will not work. Miserable old men die alone, in their own piss and shit.
Interesting how often a few of the more miserable old men of the board either wish death upon someone or hint at it in graphic terms. Willing to say this all over a political disagreement. interesting, and telling
Fathertime!
I stated my position on this several days ago also (without proof or statistics) that I did not believe at all the 3,000 number being reported by China.
Heard just a brief snippet on national news last night that USA intelligence is saying that China actually had > 25,000 deaths in Wuhan.
And several days earlier, wife told of reading that people keeping track of burials there also noting how they were much higher than the 3,000 or so reported by officials.
I stated my position on this several days ago also (without proof or statistics) that I did not believe at all the 3,000 number being reported by China.
How will it 'help' if China reported whatever death count they actually have in China?
You think Billy? Double the count to 6,000+. Triple it to 9,000+...I highly doubt it would've changed the attitude of anyone anywhere.
It is estimated that China's numbers should be multiplied by 40. I was important for China to warn governments of the danger which in turn can save lives. China could've told the truth with a massive amount of infections and deaths and told governments this disease is highly infectious and to begin mass production of PPE, ventilators, and build hospitals. By warning other governments, those governments could begin preparing what they need to save lives. Now all governments are behind in making test kits and other supplies.
It is estimated that China's numbers should be multiplied by 40. I was important for China to warn governments of the danger which in turn can save lives. China could've told the truth with a massive amount of infections and deaths and told governments this disease is highly infectious and to begin mass production of PPE, ventilators, and build hospitals. By warning other governments, those governments could begin preparing what they need to save lives. Now all governments are behind in making test kits and other supplies.
Strange to me how fast Apple can manufacture billions of iPhone in less than a year's time, but we can't manufacture 400 million test kits in 4 months.
I learned 30-40 years ago that Chinese could simply not be trusted and knew nothing about honor, keeping their word, etc.
There were reports the virus was already infecting people as early as November, even in Italy.
There is no reason for undue anxiety—the general risk remains low in NY. We are diligently managing this situation &will provide info as it becomes available.
The risk of U.S. residents becoming infected by the coronavirus that's devastating China remains low right now, public health officials said Monday, even as there's growing pressure to ramp up U.S. and international pandemic preparedness.
Apple had years of development, testing and time to gear up plants to create their phones. The test kits for COVID-19 was developed and produced in less than a month. No test kit is 100% accurate so we have a ways to go before getting things perfected.
I remember reading people from other nations saying their flu season last year seemed exceptionally high and make a claim it could've been coronavirus. I seriously doubt any of it's true. If coronavirus hit any nation in November, doctors would've sounded the alarm like the Chinese doctors did and soon after hospitals would be overwhelmed. Whatever happened in Italy in November wasn't coronavirus.
I posted an Italian doctor's admission he was receiving reports from GPs in Lombardy region that numerous unexplained severe cases of pneumonia was happening even as far back as November.
The Captain did the right thing and will be treated in the same way as the Chinese 'whistle-blower' Doctor ...
The Captain did the right thing about caring for his sailors
As long as we're on humour, someone sent me this the other day. Some may not like it but we should be able to laugh at ourselves sometimes.
I remember chuckling at some Obama potshot memes as well, so here it is:
End of
[Trump cartoon]
The Captain did the right thing about caring for his sailors but failed to the right thing when communicating through his superiors. The captain either didn't use secure channels to communicate with his superiors or let his letter to the Pentagon leak out. He was negligent and deserved to be relieved of his command of the ship. The ship needs a leader that cares about the sailors and knows how to behave properly.
Italy suspects Russia planting spies among the doctors Russia sent over?
http://www.yahoo.com/news/italy-russia-spar-over-alleged-coronavirus-spies-165449595.html
http://www.thedailybeast.com/army-warned-in-early-february-that-coronavirus-could-kill-150000-americans?ref=author
Maybe Capt. Crozier got a similar briefing and saw no action.
Trump took action in January. Army was a little behind.
And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.
Was the Army really behind?
D.J. Trump, February 26 2020
http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/
Re-reading the transcript is quite depressing when one thinks what could have been done in all this time. The president and NSC were all well aware.
First lockdowns in Italy 21 Feb. All schools closed 4 March and the national lockdown began 9 March.
You keep bringing up Trump 'doing something' with incoming foreigners on flights as if this one act saved America... Do you really feel that way today?
Why would the US panic from the truth?
No panic here, no panic in Germany, where is there panic elsewhere? Are we Americans panicky?
I WAS going to post this, but waited for a 'Murican ..EXCELLENT point.
The Captain did the right thing and will be treated in the same way as the Chinese 'whistle-blower' Doctor ...
You complain when you didn't get the truth but if Trump gave the truth adding to deaths and suffering, you'd complain again. Trump can't win.
Can you show me some European articles where you got the truth early February claiming hundreds of thousands of people in Europe will die? You didn't get the truth and that is why Europeans didn't panic. But leaders over there don't get blamed like Trump because you like their politics.
Challenge accepted:
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/924664
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population[/url]
You failed the challenge. None of the articles say hundreds of thousands of UK citizens will die. One article said just over 1000 Chinese died. That's nothing for a country of 1.4 billion. There was once a UK government document leaked that said 500,000 UK citizens could die but that was leaked and not announced by your government because they don't want to create panic.
D.J. Trump, February 26 2020...............
Re-reading the transcript is quite depressing when one thinks what could have been done in all this time. The president and NSC were all well aware.
Why are YOU so forgiving of his incompetence, Gator ?
Why do you continue to inject your political partisanship?
Trump's message was hope, not fear. It was echoed by mainstream media. Why don't you also criticize the concurrent remarks from New York's mayor and governor, who had the authority to issue and enforce a"stay at home" order earlier than they did.
You have complimented Dr. Fauci. Why not mention his January 21 interview that coronavirus is not a major threat, nothing for US citizens to be worried about now.
This crisis is still unfolding. Time for all us to work together and do our part.
The news from Italy is suggesting the apex of new cases has passed. Splendid!
Science learns and adapts, politics does not learn nor adapt well. I can imagine Dr Fauci had to deliberate hard to go against the political grain of his boss. By sticking to the facts he gained the respect that bridges politics.
why are so many people in the UK still more frustrated by weather being fine this weekend ..as they can't go out ..despite all they know ( now ) about this virus ..?
You seem so butt-hurt by your 'leader's' volte face that you need to try to suggest 'panic', elsewhere.
I am staying in a beautiful village...the house has a private garden and all is calm...
We are not experiencing the hardship of families with health workers and will not suffer from lack of funds.
There you go again talking only about Trump when leaders all around you done a worse job. You probably feel everybody to the left of Trump in Europe and in America had done a better job on handling the virus but you can't explain how.
It's a good thing being separated from your wife for the last 2+ months isn't creating a hardship for you. Is that what you want us to believe? Hope it isn't true.
Was the Army really behind?
D.J. Trump, February 26 2020
http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/
Re-reading the transcript is quite depressing when one thinks what could have been done in all this time. The president and NSC were all well aware.
First lockdowns in Italy 21 Feb. All schools closed 4 March and the national lockdown began 9 March.
You keep bringing up Trump 'doing something' with incoming foreigners on flights as if this one act saved America... Do you really feel that way today?
Don't you ever get tired of fostering numbnuts' narratives, BC?
Should I subscribe to ad ignorantiam logical fallacies instead of fact?
Are we not the United States?
I can imagine Dr Fauci had to deliberate hard to go against the political grain of his boss. By sticking to the facts he gained the respect that bridges politics.
All this is not politics Gator, it based on fact. If I got anything wrong factually, please do let me know.
I heard Dr Birx the other day discussing models and kinda leaning on the Italian model as one that could be applicable for the US.
I hope it is at this point, but believe such may be overly optimistic as containment measures were very different. It wasn't that long ago that here at RWD the number of infections, deaths and doctors having to split ventilators, apply triage protocols in Italy was somehow abhorrent and held up as a critique of 'socialized' systems. Now we are beginning to feel and do the exact same things and view the Italian experience as a best-case scenario for the US.
1. You are selective with the facts you choose to present. For 12 years I have watched you do the same, backing 100% of everything Obama did and 0% of what Trump has done.
2. Dwelling on politics degrades this thread, which I had hoped would center around medical science, public health developments, and national policies. If you want to dwell on Trump's shortcomings (and he has many to choose from), I suggest the Trump Doctrine thread or maybe new threads such as "How COVID-19 will Affect the 2020 Election," or something about which I know little, "Will the Pandemic Change Global Affairs."
3. There will be time to count the bodies and judge the role and response of the US government, the individual states, the local communities, the medical community, and the public. It will be more factual and comprehensive than your preliminary snipes, that frankly seem petty given the severity of the crises. Maybe a critical analysis will show that the NYC metro area should have implemented a Wuhan lockdown. Maybe it will show that ventilators prolonged the inevitable more than saving lives. Maybe a significant percentage of those who died were nearing the end.
We are a Federalism. While Democrats may want a huge, unitary state that decides everything, we are not there .......yet.
You don't know exactly what was happening behind the scenes, maybe we should await an after-action report. Schiff is now writing a bill for such.
You like Dr. Fauci because he elaborated upon a policy or two that differed from what you thought Trump said. Dr. Fauci is a valuable member of the task force, yet I hope you are not suggesting he should direct everything the nation does to fight COVID-1.
I don't argue with your facts such as charts, or clearly stated policies of nations around the globe. They are helpful.
I don't know the data used in the IHME models. One report says it is New York data. I would assume that the modelers used representative data from all sources.
The truth normally carries itself and it is very difficult to respond with ease on the basis of doubtful data.
I do recall criticizing Obama...
Yes, but when it comes down to stay at home orders at the state level, all Republican eyes are on Trump to set the tone.
Indeed, I misspoke. I should have used the term 'Italian data' instead of 'model'. It just startled me that she mentions Italy a lot in a comparative way. Listening to her I think 'hmm... what's missing there'. A sense that a bit of candour is lacking, or use of phrases that just don't say it all.
If Sweden, which has not locked down its economy and society, emerges with a death toll from COVID-19 that is somewhere in the middle of the pack of European countries, there is going to be a lot of recrimination, particularly against those who have tried to silence any discussion about the true extent of the threat that COVID-19 actually poses
TICKING TIME BOMBS?
In the first place, we believe there is not so much need for testing in Japan as in other countries. Japan is not experiencing an explosion of infection numbers with severe symptoms as seen in countries like Italy and South Korea.
Maybe the Japanese knows what they're doing. Who knows.
Here's a 2018 article which may explain why the virus can't get a foothold in Japan.
http://gogonihon.com/en/blog/why-do-japanese-people-wear-masks/
Japan appears to be EXACTLY on the same curve as Spain / Italy, historically.
No they're not. You're making stuff up..... again. With everybody wearing masks in Japan, it's hard for the virus to infect others as easily as what happened in Spain and Italy.
My son-in-law and CNN are both 'making it' up ..
Here's a 2018 article which may explain why the virus can't get a foothold in Japan.
http://gogonihon.com/en/blog/why-do-japanese-people-wear-masks/
Over the past week, Japan has scrambled to avert an explosive surge in infections. While the current tally stands at around 2,300 cases, Japan — a country of over 127 million people — has tested only about 30,000 residents. Neighboring South Korea, with a population of about 51 million, carried out 394,000 tests.
While Japanese doctors have carried out more than 32,000 tests, only 16,484 people have actually been tested, given that many are often tested multiple times.
#
Ooops
My son-in-law and CNN are both 'making it' up ..
BillyB's 'fake news' is ( so often) fact ..
GQB
Do you have family in Japan ? ... Thought not .. IF you did you'd appreciate we compare notes re wearing of masks, govt policy, etc.,
I've seen the links and the reference points. They were up for a day, then taken down. In addition, most of the medical staff who worked on the Corona Virus as the Woohan central hospital are now missing.
Billy-
Congrats over there up in WA! Trump just informed that your governor decided to send back, send back!! 400 ventilators! Great news! That's awesome considering WA was the epicenter on the virus in the beginning.
1.670 million tested in the US! Obviously the reason why the high count of confirmed cases. Not bad if you consider the CDC fiasco in the beginning.
Were the postings in English or Chinese ?
What are 'reference points' ?
If that is what they say, then they are making it up. The culture in Japan is totally different than in Italy and Spain. No nation can stop the spread of the virus but masks significantly slow down the spread so when they say cases in Japan are going to explode like they did in Italy and Spain, they are wrong.
Japan has done very little testing. They tell people who are sick to stay home and monitor what goes on in the hospital. There's not enough activity by the virus to shut down their economy or spend tons of money to test everybody.
When do you think nations should shut down the economy? When the first case shows up? Like Trump said, the cure can be worse than the problem. Can't shut it down too early but can't wait too long either like NY, Spain and Italy done.
http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
[The ]Faeroe Islands have done the best job testing their population since 1 out of every 10 of their citizens have been tested. No other nation comes close to testing 10% of their population.
Details are beginning to emerge - at great cost to those getting the information out - that China was indeed experimenting with the Corona Virus at the Woohan Institute of Virology.At this point it speculation but you have your mind made up clearly. I'm sure it is just a coincidence that you are trying to drum up support to destroy china's rising economy, same as you were before the virus. If you can't compete with them, destroy them by any means necessary, that is how it is done here in the USA!
According to one of the clandestine posts, the Chinese are well aware of who their Typhoid Mary case is and how he caught the disease and spread it through the 'live food' markets.
If, indeed, China is covering this up (who makes up figures for cell phone termination and numbers of urns unless they are somewhat based in reality?) there is going to be hell to pay.
If this virus originated and escaped from that place, every nation in the country will condemn China. People will be furious. To the point of choosing not to buy Chinese products. Last month China reported a 17% drop in their economy (GDP). If the people of the world find out that China has been covering this up (which they have) then a 50% reduction is not too hard to fathom.
You have no special knowledge or expertise of Japan or of Japanese people.
Many folk in Japan wore masks ..
The Florida Dept of Health COVID-19 Dashboard, now report number of cases by postal zip code.
If more than 5 cases, the exact number of cases is listed. Zero cases is also shown. If 1-5, the number of cases is reported as 1- 5 to protect individual rights.
Japan is right next to China and they haven't declared a state of emergency yet. Even if they do, they are 45 days behind Western nations which means they have a very slow spread compared to others. Figure it out.
TICKING TIME BOMBS?
Why are less developed nations reporting very low number of cases? I assume it is because they can not afford the expense of extensive testing. Fewer tests will produce fewer cases. Consider these three nations in the subcontinent.
Population Number of Cases
Pakistan 200 million 1,865
Bangladesh 160 million 51
India 1,300 million 1,251
They have densely populated areas where social co-mingling is as problematic as in NYC, if not worse. If these numbers are due to the lack of testing, I contend they are ticking time bombs with number of deaths more catastrophic than in NYC, giving rise to the doomsday envisioned by Krimster.
Consider India. India a few days ago implemented a stringent lockdown. It inadvertently caused 45 million migrant workers to flee the large cities and return to their villages, possibly accelerating the areal spread. Such has implications for starvation.
The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine to prevent tuberculosis, which has been given to Indian children since 1949, and which around 97% of the 26 million Indian children born every year received last year, appears to offer protection against coronavirus disease (Covid-19), according to US researchers who analysed the wide variation in the intensity of the disease in different countries. It also helps lower cases of Covid-19 in a country, the researchers found.
GQ,
Was watching this on German news the other day. Max Plank Institute who developed the vaccine also started trials at hospitals in several hospitals in Germany, and it's being replicated in several countries.
The huge advantage is that some of the trials, i.e. safety trials that test only whether or not the vaccine causes harm, can be skipped as they have already been done. This saves a few months time, maybe more.
I also hope it works.
I went in heavy today on Chemical Financial. ... Take it apart.
That is good news. I don't like my governor's politics but it's great he's not sitting on them ventilators if we're not needing them and letting go to other parts of America that could use them. Teamwork and cooperation is what we need to save lives and combat the virus, not politics.
MORE NEWS ABOUT HCQ FROM THE HEALTHCARE COMMUNITY
Rheumatologists have a long history of prescribing HCQ to lupus patients. They state the drug is safe at the dosages they use.
Let's take this another step. 300,000 people in the US have lupus and likely take HCQ on a regular basis. Have they been infected by COVID-19?
A "data cruncher" analyzed the insurance data for 14,000 lupus patients and discovered not one has COVID-19.
Yes, very preliminary, and certainly ANECDOTAL. Yet it calls for a more comprehensive analysis of national insurance records.
They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?
So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.
They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?
All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?
Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?
They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?
I predict we we will have better therapeutics, maybe even better than HCQ.
So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.
They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?
All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?
Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?
GOOD NEWS
So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.
They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?
All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?
Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?
As posted before, I would be very careful with building expectations at this point. A new spike can be just around the corner. Takes more than a couple days to define a trend.. a lot more.
The only logical way forward so far that I see is to start testing on a national scale to identify and isolate remaining active cases along with antibody testing to find those that can work more freely. Folks can adjust their measures depending on how they test.
Borders must become very stringent. In the case of the US, states like California that first implemented containment and lockdown measures will have to protect their state lines to prevent reinfection just as a country would.
Otherwise, we'll be chasing our tail forever. Have to remember until we know otherwise the majority of the population is still susceptible to this bug.
IMHO testing on a massive scale is warranted before restrictions are relaxed too far.
Thorny issue for Americans and our sense of individual freedoms. I recall you not long ago opposing the restrictions about stopping New Yorkers. Maybe travelers should have their body temperature measured at the border? Or allowed to enter only if having a recent negative test.
Need a transitional plan rather than await for an "all clear" announcement. Waiting until we have a vaccine or proven prophylactic is too long.
Restrictions can be eased in step with expanded testing. How? Need people much smarter than me to make such plans.
The only logical way forward so far that I see is to start testing on a national scale to identify and isolate remaining active cases along with antibody testing to find those that can work more freely.
IMHO testing on a massive scale is warranted before restrictions are relaxed too far.
I don't understand this idea of trying to test everyone.
All a test indicates (ignoring false negatives and false positives) is the situation at that point in time.
The next day, a person who tested negatively could then acquire the virus.
This also applies to all those who have already been tested.
IIRC I felt it would not be feasible as it was already too late for such. Think was the first post with the radar picture of aeroplanes flying around.
I don't understand this idea of trying to test everyone.
All a test indicates (ignoring false negatives and false positives) is the situation at that point in time.
The next day, a person who tested negatively could then acquire the virus.
This also applies to all those who have already been tested.
I don't know if any exit strategy will be acceptable in the WH as all will take time and much effort to do it right. 'Cut 'em loose' is dangerous IMHO as evidenced by new flareups in other countries.
This should interest you. ABC News analyzed 20 million international flight records for the critical 4-month period of December - March.
Flights from China: "3,200 flights flew from China to the U.S., including more than 1,000 flights ....to Los Angeles and nearly 500 each landed in San Francisco and New York ....those flights translated to more than 761,000 Chinese nationals entering the U.S.... Among the flights were 50 direct from Wuhan.... Twenty-seven of those flights went to San Francisco and 23 to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. The last flights from Wuhan came in early February...." because of the Trump travel ban.
Flights from Italy and Spain: "More than 1,400 direct flights from Italy landed in U.S. cities from December to March, including more than 500 in February and March....Another 2,255 flights from Spain landed in U.S. cities....Nearly 100 of the Italy-to-Miami flights happened over six weeks in February and early March before the U.S. imposed restrictions. .....Also in March, more than 400 flights left Spain for 12 American cities. Close to half of those flights landed at two New York City region airports: JFK and Newark Liberty. ...The flights directly from China, Italy and Spain reached at least 15 states.
Also, "Of the Customs and Border Protection personnel that tested positive, 52, were from New York ports of entry, 20 were from Miami and Fort Lauderdale airports and facilities, 10 from Los Angeles work sites and 10 from New Jersey."
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/disaster-motion-flights-coronavirus-ravaged-countries-landed-us/story?id=70025470
Have been thinking about GQ's "What Next" question.
It seems to me that one of the most important priorities is to reopen our industry and businesses. So what are the options to do this with minimal impact on the virus spreading and reappearing?
The lockdowns, shelter in place, and social distancing appears to have worked to a large extent but isn't a practical solution to getting our country back to work. So what tools do we have that are available now or in the near future that can be used to allow the work force to resume getting back to work?
Since there is no vaccine to prevent the population from contracting the virus, we must rely on other methods to prevent the transmission of the virus. The experts have indicated that the transmission mechanism best understood is from physical contact and via inhaling the vapors from infected individuals (coughing, etc)…
It would seem to me that businesses could implement measures that would greatly minimize the transmission of the virus in the workplace.
1. Require all employees to wear masks to minimize the risk of spreading the virus from someone infected to other workers.
2. Install the disinfectant hand wash dispensers in all bathrooms lunchrooms, hallways, etc. Our company had already done this prior to the virus outbreak. Just good planning by someone in our company I guess.
3. For businesses that deal with the public, install the disinfectant wipe dispensers such as our grocery stores have already done.
4. Any employee that shows signs of virus symptoms should be sent home and not return until tested. Our company already took similar actions by sending an employee home whos wife had just returned from Spain.
In addition, until a vaccine is available I think the public wearing masks in public would probably also minimize the spread of the virus. I would not have to last forever, just until the epidemic is under control and a vaccine is readily available.
What are your thoughts or other solutions?
ABC News: US intelligence warned of China's spreading contagion in November
US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.
The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.
How does this not put to rest that the US was unguarded against a misinformation campaign in China?
It seems to me that all the extra hand washing eventually will lead to only the super resistant and strongest virus remaining and growing.
2. Install the disinfectant hand wash dispensers in all bathrooms lunchrooms, hallways, etc. Our company had already done this prior to the virus outbreak. Just good planning by someone in our company I guess.
America spies on China and probably intercepted some phone calls pertaining to China's effort to fight an epidemic in Wuhan. As I mentioned before, my uncle was in a tour group touring China in November. They were supposed to stop in Wuhan in the middle of November but their train was stopped by the Chinese military and told to go around the city.Bottom line is the info was in Trump's hands in late November. The virus spread here well after that. Personally I don't think much short of a complete lock down would have prevented it. I continue to believe that Trump has decided to prioritize business over saving everybody. That may just be the lessor of the two evils from his view.
The virus probably came about earlier than China said it did. It's apparent China has deceived the world from the beginning.
Trump gets intel briefings everyday pertaining to all the bad things and threats around the world. He can't act on every one of them and he can't save everybody's life. Trump and past presidents have not acted on most of what they are told.
We don't know if Trump acted in November or not to the intel finding. Trump's administration isn't going to go to war over this and if you call China they would probably deny it. At the most, Trump's administration would call WHO and ask them to look into it and when WHO had evidence a coronavirus existed, they put out info it wasn't human to human transferable and there was nothing to worry about all the way up to Jan 20. Trump acted shortly after that to the protests of the Democrats who some also gets the same intel briefings as Trump.
we all can think about the basics of the mess we put ourselves into.
Using Occam's Razor to slice the pie:
First, we will see a higher frequency of pandemics as the world population and density grows. Natural and unnatural forces are further restricting the space in which we live, and increasing sources and breeding grounds for new viral outbreaks.
Second, our ability to travel quickly, easily and cheaply makes for a fantastic viral distribution network. Just a few decades or so ago we would likely not have experienced such a fast worldwide spread of a virus that does not respect borders.
Third, we were not adequately prepared for a pandemic event whether 'we' be a city, county, state, country or world.
Fourth, we are learning the hard way that Science and Politics do not mix well with resulting Economic harm.
Fifth, we are not able to leverage the full potential of our capabilities fighting and recovering from a pandemic.
Sixth, we cannot deal with or overcome a pandemic event alone. It must be a worldwide effort.
What did I miss?
WE? You mean China? Whether or not it came from a laboratory or eating strange animals without thoroughly cooking them, it's China that got us in this mess. Nothing what you say below is a factor.
You missed Climate Change. Yes, I read that from the media climate saying change is helping viruses flourish. Funny thing is most experts agree hot temperatures is something viruses don't like. I hope Nancy Pelosi puts in 500 billion into the next relief bill to combating climate change. Not.
...
What did I miss?
We all would like to celebrate moments of idealism, but these few feel-good moments are fleeting and easily dispensed. When all is said and done, self-preservation kicks in, and trust me - it'll prevail. Last man standing.
It seems to me that all the extra hand washing eventually will lead to only the super resistant and strongest virus remaining and growing.
Fathertime!
You missed Climate Change. Yes, I read that from the media climate saying change is helping viruses flourish. Funny thing is most experts agree hot temperatures is something viruses don't like. I hope Nancy Pelosi puts in 500 billion into the next relief bill to combating climate change. Not.
If that is the case, we have learned little, maybe nothing worthwhile.
Now the results are showing that Sweden's death rate from Corona is nearly twice that of Denmark's.
The China blame thread is here http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24254.0
Apparently Sweden took exactly the tack that Boris was accused of above.
They had no lockdown, and even used the words survival and let our people contract Corona, develop antibodies, and create a heard resistance for the future.
I understand and totally agree with your points GQ.
But I remain hopeful that this globe-spanning event can turn a wee bit of 'me' into a tiny spark of 'we'.
I wonder what will happen when we start replacing body parts( organs).
I wonder what will happen when we start replacing body parts( organs).
ditto between Sweden and Norway. Compensating for population 2.5-3 times the deaths.
Brain, of course.
Haven't we been doing such regularly since the 60's?
:D
Death rate per capita is the only sensible way to measure.
Telling absolute numbers is meaningless.
Yes, I agree that where a country is on the curve is important for comparisons.
As I understood it, Sweden and Denmark are at or near same point on curve, and their similar population gives their death rate comparison a good amount of validity.
Stop trying to compare number of deaths. Only rate per capita is meaningful.
Like Italy, 25% of population is over 65, the coronavirus has killed older folks/underlying conditions at a significant rate.
Those individuals will have an underlying condition. But that underlying condition did not cause their acute death when it's related to a COVID infection. In fact, it's the opposite. Having an underlying condition and getting this virus we know is particularly damaging to those individuals.
Bottom line is the info was in Trump's hands in late November. The virus spread here well after that. Personally I don't think much short of a complete lock down would have prevented it. I continue to believe that Trump has decided to prioritize business over saving everybody. That may just be the lessor of the two evils from his view.
Fathertime!
China lock down another city. Says infections were imported from Russia so China closes Border with Russia. I don't think China will ever admit again infections increase domestically because they want everybody to believe they have it under control.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-closes-russia-border-puts-new-city-into-wuhan-style-lockdown/ar-BB12mi7f?ocid=spartanntp
You do know Russia closed border to China over a month ago??? What does it matter that China closes a border that is already closed??
Now is that really a 'story'
Russia closed the border with China in January. Closed doesn't mean entirely closed. Russia won't allow Chinese nationals to enter Russia but will let those who are in Russia return home.
So China closing border doesn't mean entirely closed either?? So why say it?
So in your mind, closed doesn't always mean closed.
Ask the media why they said it. Maybe they're simply repeating what China said leaving out some details?
In my mind, I know there's more detail to every story than what the media reports. They like to leave a lot of things/truth out of their stories, especially when it comes to Trump.
You as bad as the media, trying to sensationalize every minute story that comes out. Don't care about whether there is any truth or not , it's a story!!
So the stories that are not the truth are the ones you don't agree with? You're a talking head!! Many are here!!!
So the stories that are not the truth are the ones you don't agree with? You're a talking head!! Many are here!!!
Countries will normally let their own citizens back in if 'closed'.
Is Ivermectin the new HCQ? Australia seem to think so.
I can't be arsed to start a VPN to read ML's link
"451: Unavailable due to legal reasons
We recognize you are attempting to access this website from a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at this time. For any issues, contact websupport@wwub.com or call 509-525-3301."
May I please ask folk to note that they are probably referring to HCQ not CQ..
The trial will look at different combinations of chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been used to treat malaria and some inflammatory conditions, but have not been proven as treatment for COVID-19.
I suppose a good deworming might make you feel better.
http://www.webmd.com/drugs/2/drug-1122/ivermectin-oral/details
http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=229893
Second link is more on topic.
Unlike HCQ, which immobilizes the virus as the person immunity then destroys it..
'Indeed' ?
I'll mention this to our friend Anatoly in Pattaya.. He'll be glad to know.. given his April 5th Flight was cancelled, his wife had a an unscheduled hysterectomy and he's still in Thailand ..
.... In a U.S. study of patients in Seattle, only one of the seven patients older than 70 who were put on a ventilator survived; just 36% of those younger than 70 did. And in a study published by JAMA on Monday, physicians in Italy reported that nearly 90% of 1,300 critically ill patients with Covid-19 were intubated and put on a ventilator; only 11% received noninvasive ventilation. One-quarter died in the ICU; 58% were still in the ICU, and 16% had been discharged...
If it is about flights being cancelled, that is a commercial and not .gov matter.
The Russian Federation banned all flights inbound from midnight on the 27th March .. irrespective of firm / nationality of the carrier - charter and scheduled ...
??
The Russian Federation banned all flights inbound from midnight on the 27th March .. irrespective of firm / nationality of the carrier - charter and scheduled ...
Was talking to my son today. His MD friend in a large German city told him that the biggest problem he sees lies with obesity, even more so than pre-existing respiratory conditions. Not only do the lungs and heart have to work overtime to oxygenate a larger body, but that additional weight also impedes the lungs to expand to their potential.
??
The Russian Federation banned all flights inbound from midnight on the 27th March .. irrespective of firm / nationality of the carrier - charter and scheduled ...
You do mean international flights. Domestic flights still running.
I agree with mhr7, international flights stopped on 18th. For Russian nationals not sure if/when it stopped. Surely after March 27 date!! You need update your info Moby!!!
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2F20200326%2F1569163936.html
Is Russia denying entry to their own citizens that show up at a border checkpoint?
Trump yesterday even suggested maybe shipping some of them overseas.
None of any of the models that were presented even remotely came close to fruition. Even the most conservative of model was still grossly over-estimated.
Despite the 500,000 confirmed infection, with < 20,000 deaths, hard to believed it paralyzed our nation to a halt if you consider seasonal flu kills more of us on literally any given year (http://www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html).
What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.
This may turn out to be the classic mother-of-all over-reaction.
America has managed the virus enough to slow infections
There was fake news for all to see :deadhorse:
It's official. Today President Trump ordered a “robust assistance package” to be sent to Italy.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/492339-trump-orders-robust-assistance-package-for-italy
If you think things are wildly out of control in America and Trump sends our medical supplies elsewhere, he will pay at the polls. Worry about your problems in the UK. You'll be getting an aid package from America soon. You can thank Trump later.
GQ,
What you have to calculate in is also that intensive care folks usually stay on respirators for a long time, 2,3 4 weeks. The daily rate of infection has not gone down except for typical weekend lulls as it seems labs may be taking weekends.
See the attached graphic. The US still has a long way to go. We also have another 3 weeks or so till the new infection numbers fall to a manageable figure. Fall in deaths and intensive care numbers is slow and will take even longer. As you can see, the virus is tenacious.
Was the acquisition of ventilators and such overkill? Never. They can be sent to other countries that may still need them or put back into storage for the inevitable next time.
Note scale is approx. x5 for the US numbers, steady at 30,000 infections daily. The red X is probably where we're at in the US in comparison, but the plateau may well be longer than ours here in Italy due to many factors.
The flat-top indicates that containment efforts are having an effect. The peak could have been much much higher.
Happy Easter!
Happy Easter,
At my house we will celebrate it twice
Same here.
Wife insisted on cleaning house and making me clean all my stuff (mostly mail items) off the dining room table.
I told her this wasn't even her Easter, but she still insisted.
I haven't missed a day of work, haven't shut down my shop for 30 seconds. I'm from Missouri the "Show me State". In addition, I guess I'm prepared to die if that is what it comes down to....although I'm practicing social distancing as best as I can. On the downside, my household is running low on TP so there is a chance I may have to raid Trenchcoat or Billyb's stockpiles.
What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.
This may turn out to be the classic mother-of-all over-reaction.
Despite the 500,000 confirmed infection, with < 20,000 deaths, hard to believed it paralyzed our nation to a halt if you consider seasonal flu kills more of us on literally any given year (http://www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html).
What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.
The "White man" paid an enormous price in blood from past pandemics that circulated throughout Europe. The ones that survived passed on some strong survival genes. Indigenous populations from other regions may not see the same benefit from these genes and may be more susceptible to virus's like this.
Indigenous people everywhere may not fair well if the coronavirus comes their way. If I remember correctly, around 90% of Indians died from White man's diseases.
..and other 'idiots' will play golf and get excessive sun exposure despite knowing the sun can cause skin cancer. I'd say let the 'idiots' do what they enjoy without labeling them 'idiots'.
For example, some idiots voluntarily smoke tobacco even though tobacco is known to both initiate and promote cancer as well as impair heart health, the two largest causes of death.
So far. One day after your post, your < 20,000 is > 20,000.
I was going to raise this - THE most crassly stupid post I've read on here, tomorrow ..
When I read IDIOT's say, "see, the 'models of doom' were exaggerated" one HAS to wonder ... are they trolling or that THICK?
IMO the endemic level of COVID-19 will cause as many deaths on an annual basis as seasonal flu. Maybe more deaths, given that COVID is more contagious and the populations most vulnerable to flu and COVID are the same.
If COVID-19 is indeed an endemic disease that will not go away, it means that eventually all of us will become infected.
R-E-L-A-X. You exaggerate. Howler? No.
The curve is flattening,
So far. One day after your post, your < 20,000 is > 20,000.
During March 1–30, underlying medical conditions and symptoms at admission were reported through COVID-NET for approximately 180 (12.1%) hospitalized adults (Table); 89.3% had one or more underlying conditions. The most commonly reported were hypertension (49.7%), obesity (48.3%), chronic lung disease (34.6%), diabetes mellitus (28.3%), and cardiovascular disease (27.8%). Among patients aged 18–49 years, obesity was the most prevalent underlying condition, followed by chronic lung disease (primarily asthma) and diabetes mellitus. Among patients aged 50–64 years, obesity was most prevalent, followed by hypertension and diabetes mellitus; and among those aged ≥65 years, hypertension was most prevalent, followed by cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. Among 33 females aged 15–49 years hospitalized with COVID-19, three (9.1%) were pregnant. Among 167 patients with available data, the median interval from symptom onset to admission was 7 days (interquartile range [IQR] = 3–9 days). The most common signs and symptoms at admission included cough (86.1%), fever or chills (85.0%), and shortness of breath (80.0%). Gastrointestinal symptoms were also common; 26.7% had diarrhea, and 24.4% had nausea or vomiting.
It's not over. Its over when we have a vaccine or an effective treatment method. Until then, we will have an endemic level of COVID-19 just as we have an endemic level of flu. IMO the endemic level of COVID-19 will cause as many deaths on an annual basis as seasonal flu. Maybe more deaths, given that COVID is more contagious and the populations most vulnerable to flu and COVID are the same.
If COVID-19 is indeed an endemic disease that will not go away, it means that eventually all of us will become infected.
You are correct. But there is more.
Its all about perceived risk rather than actual scientific risk. Perception of risk is dependent upon 1) history/experience (as you mentioned), 2) whether the encounter is voluntary or involuntary, 3) consequences, 4) the length of time from the encounter to consequences, and 5) public attention.
For example, some idiots voluntarily smoke tobacco even though tobacco is known to both initiate and promote cancer as well as impair heart health, the two largest causes of death.
Seasonal flu has been with us for eons. COVID-19 is brand new. With regard to flu we voluntarily go about our lives doing little more than taking a flu vaccine and avoiding obviously sick people. Is COVID-19 scientifically more virulent than flu in terms of transmissibility and fatality ratio? Somewhat, but I contend not to the degree perceived by the public, a perception exacerbated by the national attention given to it. And that is driving public policy.
Roseland Hospital phlebotomist: 30% of those tested have coronavirus antibody
“A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus
but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,”
http://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody
At present, it seems the more we know about the virus, the more it seems we've over-estimated its virulence judging from the failed models previously presented. It isn't to say this is not of a major concern, but as all the other virulent viruses of the past - this, too will come to pass in the same fashion. Just MHO.
My point is, current COVID death count may in fact be inflated
BillyB doesn't trust China's numbers ...
Who trusts Belarus' reports ?
http://eng.belta.by/society/view/cardiovascular-disease-named-leading-cause-of-death-in-belarus-in-january-march-129689-2020/ (http://eng.belta.by/society/view/cardiovascular-disease-named-leading-cause-of-death-in-belarus-in-january-march-129689-2020/)
10 APRIL 2020, 13:53
Cardiovascular disease named leading cause of death in Belarus in January-March
It MAY even be true .... for now ...
Lukashoudgo and his denial .. 'reports' that Doctors cannot say someone died of 'Korona' .. they 'die' of .... heart failure ...
When America had 6 cases and zero deaths, Trump cut off China. When we had 38 deaths, Trump cut off most of Europe. We are not dealing with the flu. We are dealing with the virus of the century that has a case fatality rate worse than the Spanish flu, the virus of century last century. Most of the models have been wrong simply because we've taken action or we have bad data. It is political suicide for leaders to report bad news so we are seeing a massive amount of underreporting of deaths. With bad data, it's hard to create a good model.
Data and models may not tell the full truth but what we do know is hospitals can handle births, flus, colds, other illnesses and physical injuries of their community. One COVID-19 outbreak overloads hospitals, destroys the medical community and ruins the economy.A few days ago Italy reported 80 doctors dead, 20 nurses dead, and 12,000 medical personnel infected in their 6 week battle with COVID-19. No medical community can sustain those kinds of losses in that short amount of time. It takes years to replace a medical professional. Until a vaccine is created, we must take faster action against outbreaks so they don't overwhelm our medical community. It will save lives but at a cost to our economies.
UK pledges $248 million to WHO and charities.
Singapore has a spike in cases. They are now getting tougher on people who break the rules pertaining to social distancing and masks.
In the last few days, COVID-19 is killing 2000 Americans daily. That pace makes it the #1 killer of Americans and would kill 730,000 Americans a year. The flu kills 12,000-62,000 in any given year.
The USA ... your curve... is akin to an Atlas Rocket exiting the atmosphere ((
I already reported that relative of my wife's friend, who is MD in Belarus, stated that they are not allowed to put Corona on death certificate as cause of death.
You sound very certain. Today US cases stand at about 550,000 and deaths at 22,000. What do you predict by June 30?
Who trusts Belarus' reports ?
simply because of the 'unknown' nature of the disease that we are prone to over-emphasize the urgency. No one knows the limitations, hence, we tend to change our behaviors and over-react.
BillyB, what about you folks up there in Washington, what are you guys doing up north?
You are comparing a few consecutive days of statistics to years and years of statistics for flu. And those flu statistics are concentrated each year over about 5 months. Short interval stats will normalize over time.
This virus is not going away even with mitigation. So, Billy, how safe is "safe" by your standards? Zero, 100, 1000 deaths per day?
"We make a recommendation," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, when asked by @JakeTapper about reports that he and other top officials called for social distancing in February. "Often the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it's not. But it is what it is. We are where we are right now."
Tony said more than that, much more, knowing that somebody besides an immunologist should answer the question how safe is "safe," especially given the economic and social tradeoffs inherent in such decision making.
Hopefully, the time will come when those who worried about the economics costs will pay with their jobs.
I wonder if those who contend Tony Fauci should be making this decision would also support having a military general and not the President be the Commander-in-Chief. MacArthur had a superb military record yet was relieved by Truman because he promoted a wider war with China, a war that could become nuclear and lead to WWIII. Truman's popularity dipped to the lowest in history of any serving President, and he decided not to run for re-election.
Is the question how safe is "safe" a medical or socioeconomic question?
I wonder if those who contend Tony Fauci should be making this decision would also support having a military general and not the President be the Commander-in-Chief. MacArthur had a superb military record yet was relieved by Truman because he promoted a wider war with China, a war that could become nuclear and lead to WWIII. Truman's popularity dipped to the lowest in history of any serving President, and he decided not to run for re-election.
Of course, whether Trump keeps his job depends in part upon public health as well as the economy.
If America beat the Soviets and the spread of Communism....
Come on, Phil - no need to prove you're being obtuse..
IF you are asking, "what is the point of having a team of experts around ", as Trmpu' claims ..then IGNORING the advice of Dr Fauci .. you'd HAVE a point ...
But he's 'running' the show, now ....
Churchill got 'rewarded' for his WWII role by being booted out of office .. IF you are asking, "what is the point of having a team of experts around ", as Trmpu' claims ..then IGNORING the advice of Dr Fauci .. you'd HAVE a point ...
This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.
This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.
The point is the military equivalent of Tony Fauci should not decide whether to invade the CCCP or Red China.
Dr. Fauci, the trumpeted *EXPERT* declared late February that the US have nothing to worry about this pandemic. It changed shortly thereafter. He followed that up by giving us a whole bunch of overly-estimated models which proved way out of the ballpark. He earned a nice fortune cookie for these wonderful declarations so far.
That's what we said about the Iraq war also a decade ago. Problem is we didn't have an exit strategy. Ditto with this virus, so far no exit strategy. Lemme tell ya, it's very tenacious.
Don't be fooled by the graphs, there are weekend lulls, guess some labs are taking weekends off. Is possible deaths on weekends are underreported as well. My gut feeling it'll be another 6 weeks before we (in the US) note with confidence a fall in numbers of new infections which is the first indicator that should trend down. What happens 'afterwards' can be a prolonged process as well along with risks of rebound across the nation.
I think Cuomo said it best. http://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/13/new-york-gov-cuomo-on-coronavirus-i-believe-the-worst-is-over-if-we-continue-to-be-smart.html
But what about info that Billy posted indicating that corona will cause lasting physical and mental damage to those who contract it and survive ?
That's what we said about the Iraq war also a decade ago. Problem is we didn't have an exit strategy. Ditto with this virus, so far no exit strategy. Lemme tell ya, it's very tenacious.
Don't be fooled by the graphs, there are weekend lulls, guess some labs are taking weekends off.
| Date Σ Tests Δ Tests Σ +'s Δ +'s 23-Mar 13,094 1,171 24-Mar 16,046 2,952 1,467 296 25-Mar 27,539 11,493 2,355 888 26-Mar 29,114 1,575 2,484 129 27-Mar 32,983 3,869 2,900 416 28-Mar 43,071 10,088 4,038 1,138 29-Mar 50,528 7,457 4,950 912 30-Mar 56,702 6,174 5,704 754 31-Mar 64,661 7,959 6,741 1,037 1-Apr 69,265 4,604 7,793 1,052 2-Apr 80,356 11,091 9,008 1,215 3-Apr 95,835 15,479 10,268 1,260 4-Apr 107,313 11,478 11,545 1,277 5-Apr 116,898 9,585 12,350 805 6-Apr 126,048 9,150 13,629 1,279 7-Apr 139,669 13,621 14,747 1,118 8-Apr 143,707 4,038 15,698 951 9-Apr 156,852 13,145 16,826 1,128 10-Apr 165,686 8,834 17,968 1,142 11-Apr 175,834 10,148 18,986 1,018 12-Apr 185,520 9,686 19,895 909 |
My gut feeling it'll be another 6 weeks before we (in the US) note with confidence a fall in numbers of new infections which is the first indicator that should trend down.
| TOTAL DAILY DATE HOSP. HOSP. 28-Mar 567 29-Mar 633 66 30-Mar 715 82 31-Mar 857 142 1-Apr 990 133 2-Apr 1,167 177 3-Apr 1,334 167 4-Apr 1,470 136 5-Apr 1,555 85 6-Apr 1,719 164 7-Apr 1,893 174 8-Apr 2,082 189 9-Apr 2,298 216 10-Apr 2,496 198 11-Apr 2,607 111 12-Apr 2,672 65 |
What happens 'afterwards' can be a prolonged process as well along with risks of rebound across the nation.
….So it isn't like they recovered and survived the virus and all of the sudden they also got rid of obesity, diabetes, coronary ailment, pneumonia, hypertension, black lungs, etc...
the very vast majority of those who suffered or died from this infection aren't exactly the cream of the crop health-wise to begin with.
Again, what I'm saying is the very vast majority of people succumbing to this virus are those with underlying health condition to begin with.
However, the words Billy quote seem to me to be applicable to very healthy people as well.
“COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disorder,” said Dr. Harlan Krumholtz, a cardiologist at Yale University. “It can affect the heart, the liver, the kidneys, the brain, the endocrine system and the blood system.”
CDC officials do not have exact counts of how many people die from flu each year. Flu is so common that not all flu cases are reported, and flu is not always listed on death certificates. So the CDC uses statistical models, which are periodically revised, to make estimates.http://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
CDC officials called the 80,000 figure preliminary, and it may be slightly revised. But they said it is not expected to go down.
Fatal complications from the flu can include pneumonia, stroke and heart attack.
In 2017, it was estimated that 80,000 Americans died of the flu that year. 80,000!!! LMAO! And we have vaccines for these. That was Trump's first year as POTUS! I don't remember any talk of social distancing, face mask, lockdowns, graphs, toilet paper hoarding, flight banning, etc...
but yeah - models did reared it's ugly head: The death rate apparently was an estimate based on modeling.
http://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
I agree. COVID-19 in the US will decline from the currently peaking epidemic levels to an endemic level. Some locales could even experience another peak. In other words, the virus will not "exit," and over the next few years perhaps 80% of the population will have been infected. Accept it.
The weekend pattern is not seen in Florida data, which I follow closely for my county, another county nearby, and even my postal zip code. There are lows and highs, with the low numbers occurring on Tuesday-Wednesday. Statewide data for 21 million population (about 1/3 of Italy's) are below:
The number of daily new cases in Florida has remained relatively flat even as the number of daily tests reached its peak. Florida's lockdown was not stringent, e. g., the Governor declared religious services were essential.
Our hospitalizations peaked four days ago; however, the numbers are too small to be confident about identifying a trend. Nothing suggests we have to wait six weeks for smaller numbers of new infections.
Which now brings me to this new point...
he knows they BS big time and decided to ban travel from China in January. He knew this virus was extremely dangerous back in January and took action that shocked the world. He later shocked the world again banning travel from Europe.
Am I missing something?
Since the shutdown, 300% rise on suicide rates, DV increased, Opioid deaths spiraling. Not to mention the desperation of those struck down by this pandemic on the economic scale of this problem. The country needs to move forward.Well shows how 'resilient' and 'exceptional' the US populace is.
My impression is that is only expected in those that have severe reactions to the virus and are on deaths doorstep.
I can get on a plane tomorrow bound for the US. Maybe I'm asymptomatic, infecting folks along the way.. who is to know?
No country pays much attention to the flu. All countries are taking this virus seriously so it's just not one leader of one country that is overestimating this virus.This seems to be pretty strong evidence that there is something more to this virus than the current death count in the US which seemingly isn't that large just yet. It begs the question of:
Makes me wonder what is going on. What doesn't the public know?
This, from the guy who believes global warming caused by man is causing long, dry spell in desert areas. I doubt Trump cares about any opinion coming from such characters who harbor such idiotic opinion.
Dr. Fauci, the trumpeted *EXPERT* declared late February that the US have nothing to worry about this pandemic. It changed shortly thereafter.
He followed that up by giving us a whole bunch of overly-estimated models which proved way out of the ballpark. He earned a nice fortune cookie for these wonderful declarations so far.
The lastest grim estimate of dead Americans is now adjusted to 60,000! Yeay! That would put us right smack on par with 2017, 2018 seasonal flu death counts.
This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.
Such a response identifies you as the obtuse one. You are deliberately being slow. The question of how safe is "safe" is exactly the question, and the answer will involve tradeoffs. It is such a perplexing decision that you will not begin to write a substantive answer.
If we stay in lockdown, as your criticism of Trump suggests, until all leading medical doctors say it is "safe" to go back to work, you will not see SC until maybe mid-2021.
Trump synthesizes the opinions of Fauci and many other scientists, economists, etc. Trump even listens to people like you (those who look only in the rearview mirror), and he answers their questions , e. g., Jim Acosta at the briefings.
Yes, isn't it great!!!!
Maybe it's time to come home BC. We'll take you back, warts, infections, and all.
Then what city will be the next NYC? Yours?
The number 1 moneymaker in FL is tourism.
How about all those cruise ships?
Can't we be smarter than this incredibly dumb virus that does not even have a brain?
1/ Gator - your question was answers... as long as it takes, either to find a vaccine or better treatment
2/ If that means I'll not be with SC for a while .. I'd rather have that and be paying for for the govt borrowings, than losing friends and family needlessly early
The point hat the good Doctor has made is that 'Trampu' DOESN'T listen to good advice ...
Sure' ... tell THAT to lose who have lost loved ones - probably because 'Trampu' was more worried about the economy ... Again... he is not alone in not listening to the more negative predictions and necessary steps that should have been taken ...
SOME folks seek to shut down WHO ( or have its head replaced ) for asking govts to "TEST, TEST and TEST again" ..
Seems to me the wrong guy is in the crosshairs of those to dumb to see who SHOULD be replaced !
The real reason partisan patriots like jone and gator continue to unsuccessfully berate china is because they are beating us (The US) around the globe.
Do not parrot what China tells you.
You might be the only non-Chinese citizen to believe this.
As yes, I noticed you were still misquoting longer dry spells and the sparks that started the Paradise fire weren't at all to do with the MUCH longer, drier spells...
And.. ? He learnt more and revised his viewpoint - perfectly normal for an honest person
As we have no way of knowing if his models WERE 'over-estimations' .. He certainly explained they were worst case scenarios - if NOTHING was done ... I'm wondering what you're trying to 'achieve' .. other than drawing attention to your ability to warp the words / intent of folks....
But did they quarantine you ? ,,,, Are you suggesting that lock-downs are a waste of time ...? If so, relocate to Sweden or Belarus...
I'll probably have that as MY strapline in a few months ... to remind you .. :deadhorse:
lock-downs are a waste of time ...? If so, relocate to Sweden or Belarus...
2. We now have better tools in the medical toolbox - At the top of this list is testing.
Well shows how 'resilient' and 'exceptional' the US populace is.
If what you report is accurate moving forward may be have a higher survival rate even with the virus running loose!
Fathertime!
I watched Pence last night who stated that 110,000 tests per day were being performed. That's only a little over twice the rate here in Italy. Mentions that some states were not testing to capacity, or that materials were not on hand etc.
We'll have our own challenges with testing here, but what hit me as odd is if we in the US have a 25-30,000 positives per day with 110,000 tests, are hospitals and doctors still having difficulty getting tests done for staff? What about our elderly in assisted living homes etc? Is the 'flattening' of new infections artificial?
It will, of course, take a huge testing push to get and keep a handle on the virus. I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling about this most important aspect of recovery.
BC-
It isn't solely about availability of test. This seeming low number of daily testing is attributable to the fact most places, if not all, are only 'testing' those showing symptoms.
I watched Pence last night who stated that 110,000 tests per day were being performed.
It will, of course, take a huge testing push to get and keep a handle on the virus. I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling about this most important aspect of recovery.
4701 vs. 731. Interesting numbers. The first is the seasonal average for flu deaths in the State of California. The second number is the actual deaths in California from COVID 19.
I have always felt that the warmer the climate, the fewer deaths from viruses. Maybe that's just me.
That would make logical sense, but the 'top of the curve' just seems way too flat IMO. I am pretty sure any excess testing capacity would be extended to health workers, police and other critical workers. Is that happening?
Agree. Testing is the key to reducing the number of infections to low numbers.
They're mostly snowflakes, FT. But since you admitted not belonging to the 'exceptional /resilient' group that the vast majority of true Americans like myself are, we need not worry.Still haven't missed a day or minute of work, unlike you huddled up behind your rolls of toilet paper. You can still call yourself 'exceptional' though, since it makes you feel good about yourself.
Unlike you, of course.
FWIW, where I am. I noticed about a 35-40% rise in rush hour traffic on my way to work this morning. Daily traffic report on the radio also noted the increase.There was a large increase where I was also, and I've spoke to a few others that have said the same.
14 April 2020 In uncertain – indeed, weird – times like these, as we increase our social isolation to ‘flatten the curve’, literature provides escape, relief, comfort and companionship. Less comfortingly, though, the appeal of pandemic fiction has also increased. Many pandemic titles read like guide books to today’s situation. And many such novels give a realistic chronological progression, from first signs through to the worst times, and the return of ‘normality’. They show us we’ve been through this before. We’ve survived.http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20200413-what-can-we-learn-from-pandemic-fiction
Are you saying that having COVID 19 saved almost 4000 lives? Is it determinable to know how many deaths were from the flu?
I think it is way to early to determine if coronavirus will act like influenza virus and be seasonal or if it will be back next year. As I understand, the coronavirus mutates slower than influenza virus.
Are you saying that having COVID 19 saved almost 4000 lives? Is it determinable to know how many deaths were from the flu?
I think it is way to early to determine if coronavirus will act like influenza virus and be seasonal or if it will be back next year. As I understand, the coronavirus mutates slower than influenza virus.
Time to re-visit Sweden's policy .. much vaunted by those pointing to her and saying ' look' ..it's 'working for them' ..
Compare with their neighbours - who are imposing stricter measures ..