Russian Women Discussion

RWD Discussion Groups => Odds and Ends => Topic started by: 2tallbill on June 11, 2016, 12:12:19 PM

Title: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 11, 2016, 12:12:19 PM
Brexit has been in the news and people in the UK are going to vote it up or down.
I wanted to know what are the pros and cons and people it might impact.

Personally, I don't know enough about it to have an opinion, and if I did it wouldn't
matter. The people of UK are more than capable of forming their opinions without
my help.

What say you?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 11, 2016, 12:51:09 PM
Tough call. If I were a citizen of the UK I'd probably vote to leave. The EU has done very little for the UK over the years and I'd suggest the UK has contributed more monetarily to the EU than vice versa.

The UK has even maintained it's own national currency, healthcare and (although somewhat impacted) immigration policies so they were never truly "All in" with the EU in the first place.

The only area that I can think of that might have benefitted the UK was trade but even that is arguable in that I remember while residing there some controversy over local farmers having trouble competing with imported produce, meat, etc.

Brass

Edit: I also don't think the UK leaving would topple the EU as, say Germany or France bailing would. What it might do though is start an exodus of the 'have' countries and that would break the EU up.   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 11, 2016, 04:05:58 PM
I'm indifferent, however, I find Margaret Thatcher to have been very prescient on the EU.  She opposed it, and was knifed by her party, losing its leadership, because of that opposition.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3562258/Full-text-of-Margaret-Thatchers-speech-to-the-College-of-Europe-The-Bruges-Speech.html
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Larry1 on June 11, 2016, 04:18:22 PM
I'm indifferent, however, I find Margaret Thatcher to have been very prescient on the EU.  She opposed it, and was knifed by her party, losing its leadership, because of that opposition.

One of the most vivid political memories of my life was the news story about Margaret Thatcher being stabbed in the back by a cabal of her fellow Tories.  Many people say they remember where they were when they heard that John F. Kennedy was assassinated. I remember where I was when I heard the news about Thatcher. I was visiting my mother and watching TV in shock.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: cc3 on June 12, 2016, 09:06:49 AM
I favor and support an independent UK!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on June 20, 2016, 02:23:46 PM
It will be like economic suicide for UK to leave.

Theory shows and experience proves the high level of economic benefits from belonging to such organizations.

Sure there are some segments of industry from any particular country that suffers, but this is outweighed by the segments that benefit.

Study some economics concerning comparative advantage and absolute advantage.

The best course is to threaten to leave . . . in order to get some concessions from other members.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 20, 2016, 02:33:49 PM
But the UK has a trade deficit with all EU countries.  So, will Germany risk a 51 million euro positive trade balance because of Brexit?  Will France risk its 14 million euro positive trade balance?  Will the Netherlands risk its $7 billion euro positive trade balance?

From all I have read, the educated, and the young, favour staying in the EU.  Those who are less educated favour exiting, as their livelihoods have been affected by downward pressure on wages.  Last week, Brexit had an 11 point lead.  This week, after the assassination of Jo Cox, the sides are both at 44% support.



 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on June 20, 2016, 02:48:16 PM
Same thing basically in USA.  Less educated and less skilled workers in some industries are hurt by free trade and trade agreements because the low level skills they have can be replicated cheaper in some other countries.

But USA had trade surplus in professional services, as one example.

The idea of comparative advantage applies to skills the same as it applies to natural resources.  USA has superior education system to most countries of the world (yes I know the average student in our secondary school system does not achieve as well as those in some other countries), so that is where one of our comparative advantages exist.

Note:  The standardized exam results that show USA students far down the list compared to some other countries would show something entirely different if segmented by race, ethnicity, etc.  But that would not be PC to do.

The key, as always, for those in USA is to strive for highest level of education and skills possible.  To do otherwise is pretty stupid.

But I realize that if a person is, in fact, pretty stupid then . . .
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 20, 2016, 04:43:49 PM
It will be like economic suicide for UK to leave.


UK can partner up with America, Canada and Mexico. Obama wants UK to stay in the EU. Does UK staying in the EU benefit America or helps our competition, the EU?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on June 20, 2016, 05:06:00 PM
It will be like economic suicide for UK to leave.


Exactly correct.

The problem with small minded politics is that it ignores the simple reality that the world IS interconnected in every respect now.
Of course the changes that creates to what were historic norms get changed-- and many do not do change well.
Hence we see politicians who want to build walls (either real or imaginary) in their thirst for popular acclaim - what is will do is create economic anochism! There are examples of that you can see in discussion on this forum!
The world has changed dramatically in the last 50 years -and it is a clock that cannot be reversed !
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 20, 2016, 07:09:50 PM
...USA has superior education system to most countries of the world (yes I know the average student in our secondary school system does not achieve as well as those in some other countries), so that is where one of our comparative advantages exist.

Somewhat of a dichotomy, don't you think?

Note:  The standardized exam results that show USA students far down the list compared to some other countries would show something entirely different if segmented by race, ethnicity, etc.  But that would not be PC to do.

That seems like something impossible to prove.  I'm guessing here that Chinese, Indian and other Asian students would come out in front of the others because they have (in many cases) a superior work ethic as students.  But every race has its geniuses, and there must be plenty to go around in a country as large as yours.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 21, 2016, 01:29:58 AM
STAY

The leavers want Britain to be 'independent' in a global world

Thus voting 'out' are either clueless racists or want the GBP , their pensions - via the stock market - to fall
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on June 21, 2016, 02:56:11 AM
I could understand more why Greece would want to back out or at least threaten to as they have little to lose in the end.  But UK with their own currency, not really in Schengen and able to control their borders and immigration policy more than most EU countries..  All the benefits and relatively small liabilities.

Just doesn't make sense.

Exit - if the GBP drops - bad   Exit if the GBP increases - bad.

This whole Brexit is a mystery when they only had one foot in the door anyway..

It should really be a vote for full entry into EU or remaining at the status quo, something that was turned down long ago.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 21, 2016, 09:03:23 AM
The leavers want Britain to be 'independent' in a global world


I've heard if Britain leaves, it may hurt the EU more than them. It may also start the demise of the EU. There's no doubt in my mind people in the EU wants Britain to stay more than the Brits want to stay. I see Germany and France benefiting the most in the EU. Many Brits may feel they're not getting a fair shake. Leaving now and playing hardball may get them a better deal in the future should the EU try to bribe into coming back.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Nightwish on June 21, 2016, 09:09:34 AM
I am really hoping for a Brexit - and soon there after a Swexit.. "we" other countries that don't belong to the monetary union will lose the most on Brexit.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 21, 2016, 02:02:54 PM
The elites in Britain and the EU want Britain to stay. Most Brits across all classes want to leave. They have seen nothing but deterioration of a previously decent life style while their culture and way of life is disappearing. England has been a pretty solid anchor of the Union. Not quite Germany or France  and the Brits don't really like what they have seen Germany and France turn into. Namely the immigration.

I say cheer the Brits on for whatever they vote for while it's still democratic
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 21, 2016, 03:09:21 PM
STAY

The leavers want Britain to be 'independent' in a global world

Thus voting 'out' are either clueless racists or want the GBP , their pensions - via the stock market - to fall


I would hazard a guess your "friend" from Manchester backs Brexit.  Just a hunch, I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 21, 2016, 03:09:32 PM
I've heard if Britain leaves, it may hurt the EU more than them.

WHERE did you hear that ?  ;D

Britain is a nation of just under 65 million and the EU 300 million plus... [ I initially typed 75 million for the UK ]

They are Britain's biggest trading partners and the German's can't wait for any Brexit and a UK 'stock market' outside the EU

Britain cannot control EU citizens coming in - but can stop them gaining access to social welfare payments for a long time.

Brexiters are saying daft things and making up figures about how much the UK pays and have the cheek to say the Stay campaign are 'scare-mongering '

FACT - the biggest employers don't want a Brexit ...should be a clue for any employee voting like a Turkey for Christmas / Thanks-giving






Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 21, 2016, 03:14:47 PM

I would hazard a guess your "friend" from Manchester backs Brexit.  Just a hunch, I could be wrong.

Of course - because a UK leaving the EU  weakens the EU and the UK..and he thinks immigration will reduce ... :D

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Изумруд on June 21, 2016, 03:50:25 PM
www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y)

University of Liverpool Law School’s Professor Michael Dougan has spent his career studying EU law as it relates to the UK; contributing to Parliamentary Select Committees, advising government and now helping media fact check the barrage of assertions emanating from the Remain and Leave camps, in the run up to June 23. 

By far the most coherent analysis I've heard on the EU referendum; probably because he's not a politician.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on June 21, 2016, 05:51:00 PM

I would hazard a guess your "friend" from Manchester backs Brexit.  Just a hunch, I could be wrong.


Of course - because a UK leaving the EU  weakens the EU and the UK..and he thinks immigration will reduce ... :D



It is a good example of small minded  ignorance believing in short term  self interest overiding common sense.
Maybe when the currency collapses   he will be able to change all those roubles  that he bought( that he was  so strong in recommending others buy at about 35=USD$1) back into GBP and buy up England on the cheap !
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 21, 2016, 07:38:23 PM
The elites in Britain and the EU want Britain to stay. Most Brits across all classes want to leave.

How can you say that when all the polls have "stay" and "leave" both running at around 50%?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/eu-referendum-poll-tracker-and-odds1/
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 21, 2016, 09:52:47 PM
Of course - because a UK leaving the EU  weakens the EU and the UK..


If UK leaves and their economic competition, the EU, becomes weak too, that is a good thing for the UK. It won't be as bad as everyone thinks since everybody is still on the same playing field. America is more independent than most European countries and we're doing fine. Some in the UK want to be in control of their destiny too. I noticed not many people clicked on Nightwish's photo but I cut and paste similar words below. With the enormous amount of time required to read rules on every item, it gets expensive doing business.

Pythagorean theorem: …………………………………….24 words.
 Lord’s prayer:………………………………………………. 66 words.
 Archimedes’ Principle: ……………………………………. 67 words.
 10 Commandments: …………………………………….. 179 words.
 Gettysburg address: …………………………………….. 286 words.
 US Declaration of Independence : ……………….. 1,300 words.
 US Constitution with all 27 Amendments: ………. 7,818 words.
 EU regulations on the sale of cabbage:……. 26,911 words

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on June 21, 2016, 09:57:08 PM
So in EU you have to pay a lot of lettuce to get cabbage.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 21, 2016, 11:35:46 PM
Apparently not.




http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35962999


http://www.snopes.com/language/document/cabbage.asp
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 22, 2016, 12:11:00 AM
Apparently not.




http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35962999


http://www.snopes.com/language/document/cabbage.asp

Those sites don't know what they are talking about or haven't done enough research for the facts.

This link has 5913 words

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1466575276358&uri=CELEX:31987R1591

This link has 1898 words in an amendment.

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32006R0634

Every country also has their cabbage protocol on top of the rules they have to follow with the EU. For the UK it's the link below with 23,510 words.

http://assurance.redtractor.org.uk/contentfiles/Farmers-5341.pdf

In the first two links there are references to regulations. There are also other amendments. I'm not going to search for every one of those regulations and amendments but I'm sure it's going to be over 26,000 words for a guy to read if he wants to grow and sell cabbage.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 22, 2016, 12:22:53 AM
If UK leaves and their economic competition, the EU, becomes weak too, that is a good thing for the UK. It won't be as bad as everyone thinks

BillyB

My GBP is going less far, shares fallen and pensions [ private ] fallen .... and that is before any 'brexit' - it's financial - as well as - political suicide.

Imagine a scenario where Texas thinks it could go off on her own and the places where oil is prevalent say they'll cede and rejoin the Union and you'll have an analogy approaching the daftness of a 'brexit'


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 22, 2016, 12:44:17 AM
My GBP is going less far, shares fallen and pensions [ private ] fallen .... and that is before any 'brexit' - it's financial - as well as - political suicide.


If brexit happens, I'm sure the Euro is going to lose value too and there will continue to be balance. When the value of currency is down, exports will increase so economy will bounce back. There is a lot of uncertainty for the future that will devalue currency. When the smoke clears, your GBP will bounce back where it belongs. I would suspect your shares and pension have little to do with the UK's relationship with the EU and more to do with how things operate within the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on June 22, 2016, 12:56:53 AM
If brexit happens, I'm sure the Euro is going to lose value too and there will continue to be balance. When the value of currency is down, exports will increase so economy will bounce back. There is a lot of uncertainty for the future that will devalue currency. When the smoke clears, your GBP will bounce back where it belongs. I would suspect your shares and pension have little to do with the UK's relationship with the EU and more to do with how things operate within the UK.

BB--your concept of currency values is akin to the famous(not) advice from another forum "expert"  the manny who advised all and sundry to buy roubles urgently when they were at 35 to the USD$   !! Subsequently it fell to 80 before recovering a little in more recent times.

For the record- if Brexit happens-- GBP is most likely to plummet. - against not only USD but Euro also and other often traded currencies.

BB--if you are going to pontificate-- quote your source( which was Soros) and read ALL that he has predicted.I do note you ceased making yor crazy comments on Ukraine-- after actually being there in more recent times!! :)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 22, 2016, 01:02:01 AM
If brexit happens, I'm sure the Euro is going to lose value too

The UK isn't in the Euro and I care about the GBP falling against the Euro, Dollar, Rouble, Aussie Dollar......... ALL caused by loonies who are clueless - who think a leave vote will 'cure' immigration and the UK will be more 'independent'

The swiftest correction will be a remain vote on Thursday.





Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 22, 2016, 01:49:04 AM
FACT - the biggest employers don't want a Brexit ...should be a clue for any employee voting like a Turkey for Christmas / Thanks-giving


Why?  Do they get cheaper labor through immigration?  Isn't that why a lot of the people want to leave the EU?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 22, 2016, 07:26:28 AM
Brexit has been in the news and people in the UK are going to vote it up or down.
I wanted to know what are the pros and cons and people it might impact.

Personally, I don't know enough about it to have an opinion, and if I did it wouldn't
matter. The people of UK are more than capable of forming their opinions without
my help.

What say you?


Since it appears the 'brexit' would be harmful to the US stock market for some reason, I'd rather they suck it up and stay!  :)
Fathertime! 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 22, 2016, 08:02:47 AM
The UK isn't in the Euro and I care about the GBP falling against the Euro, Dollar, Rouble, Aussie Dollar......... ALL caused by loonies who are clueless - who think a leave vote will 'cure' immigration and the UK will be more 'independent'


I consider the UK one of the stronger countries in the EU. There are some benefits being member but there are things that drag you guys down. I would be extremely disappointed if America considers joining the EU. It would become harder to do business and consequently harm our economy. I like being in control of our own destiny instead of answering to a bureaucracy that consists of people from nations that are not as successful.

With one of the stronger nations, the UK, leaving the EU, the remaining members of the EU currency will devalue. If UK is truly a strong nation, your currency will get stronger. America still does a lot of business with the EU. It's beneficial for both of us. UK will still do a lot of business with the EU too and be free to enter into trade agreements around the world without answering to a master.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 22, 2016, 08:06:11 AM
How can you say that when all the polls have "stay" and "leave" both running at around 50%?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/eu-referendum-poll-tracker-and-odds1/

Read my lips  :D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 22, 2016, 09:44:14 AM

Pythagorean theorem: …………………………………….24 words.
 Lord’s prayer:………………………………………………. 66 words.
 Archimedes’ Principle: ……………………………………. 67 words.
 10 Commandments: …………………………………….. 179 words.
 Gettysburg address: …………………………………….. 286 words.
 US Declaration of Independence : ……………….. 1,300 words.
 US Constitution with all 27 Amendments: ………. 7,818 words.
 EU regulations on the sale of cabbage:……. 26,911 words


This has been circulating on FB, mostly by right-wingers.  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 22, 2016, 09:56:55 AM
The EU is wholly corrupt and has been since inception, as any fraud or coercion to sign a contract renders the contract null and void.

Heath engaged in fraud upon the British people to get into the EC  / Common Market to begin with.

Then we have Helmut Kohl admitting he acted like a dictator to get the Euro currency set up. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9981932/Helmut-Kohl-I-acted-like-a-dictator-to-bring-in-the-euro.html

See a pattern?

Also, Britain without Brexit has no effective control of its borders.

For a nation to not have control of its borders means that it has no sovereignty.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 22, 2016, 10:41:28 AM

This has been circulating on FB, mostly by right-wingers.  ;)


And tried real hard by left wing journalists to shoot it down as if they want us to believe they are the authority on truth. Go click on my links and search for the additional regulations and addendums and let us know how many words you counted. Most farmers just want to plant a seed and sell their product. Life doesn't have to be this difficult.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 22, 2016, 06:15:50 PM

This has been circulating on FB, mostly by right-wingers.  ;)

Is it true?

The earlier declarations, etc. save the Constitution did not require hearings and attorneys.   However, European cabbage is worth the effort considering how precious it is.  Germany without kraut?  God forbid. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 22, 2016, 07:10:01 PM
Also, Britain without Brexit has no effective control of its borders.

For a nation to not have control of its borders means that it has no sovereignty.

Serious question, Slumba - when was the last time you entered Britain?  If you're coming in by regular means (air, sea, rail), then you will find that Britain's border controls are extremely effective.  The fact that it's an island does rather help.

If you're smuggling someone or something in, that's a different matter.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 22, 2016, 09:10:36 PM
Is it true?


No.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 22, 2016, 09:14:15 PM
Serious question, Slumba - when was the last time you entered Britain?  If you're coming in by regular means (air, sea, rail), then you will find that Britain's border controls are extremely effective.  The fact that it's an island does rather help.

If you're smuggling someone or something in, that's a different matter.

Are you pretending that you have never heard of Calais?  Or just being a tosser of red herrings?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 22, 2016, 09:16:42 PM
Serious question, Slumba - when was the last time you entered Britain?  If you're coming in by regular means (air, sea, rail), then you will find that Britain's border controls are extremely effective.  The fact that it's an island does rather help.

If you're smuggling someone or something in, that's a different matter.


Correct.  The UK is not part of Schengen.  It controls its borders currently. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 22, 2016, 09:20:27 PM
Are you pretending that you have never heard of Calais?  Or just being a tosser of red herrings?

Calais does not mean Britain does not have sovereignty over its borders currently, nor that anything in this regard would change if the UK left the EU.  I suppose Brexiters believe the number of East Europeans entering the UK would decrease.  However, even EU members must be able to support themselves when they come to Britain, and if they can't, they can be deported after 3 months.

The UK has been barred from deporting some refugees and non-citizens it wished to deport by the European Court of Human Rights.  However, the European Court of Human Rights is not tied to the EU, and the UK would still be bound by its decisions after Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 22, 2016, 09:27:06 PM
I'll also add, the ECHR hears only a small number of cases from Britain.  Most of the cases ceasing deportation are decisions of UK courts, based on domestic legislation (Human Rights Act).  That will not change after Brexit, unless the UK Human Rights Act is amended by Parliament.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 22, 2016, 11:33:42 PM
One thing about Brexit is that the alarmists are going overboard.

They look at all the trade that UK does with the EU and assume it will go to zero the
next day. Japan, USA and China aren't part of the EU yet all those countries do a
lot of trade with them. Would Germany want to stop exporting to UK? of course not
the UK is their 3rd largest trading partner, (USA is their largest) they would hammer
out a trade deal with them.

I'm not saying everything would be rosy or that it's a great idea, because I really
don't know, but it's just in my opinion that the alarmists (on both sides) are
exaggerating.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 23, 2016, 04:52:35 AM

Correct.  The UK is not part of Schengen.  It controls its borders currently.


Firstly, I admit I have a rudimentary understanding of the Brexit and EU which is why I am asking what is probably simpleton questions.  haha


While the UK is not part of Shengen, don't citizens (of the countries in the EU) can freely travel and work in other EU countries? 


From recollection of various articles read in the past, I was under the impression many brits were angry about jobs being taken by citizens of countries like Poland and Romania.  For less pay.   


Besides the welfare of those citizens from other EU countries.  I thought EU has stringent welfare rules that all countries must abide too.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 12:00:12 PM
While the UK is not part of Shengen, don't citizens (of the countries in the EU) can freely travel and work in other EU countries? 


Yes.  They can work in the UK.

Quote
From recollection of various articles read in the past, I was under the impression many brits were angry about jobs being taken by citizens of countries like Poland and Romania.  For less pay. 


Yes, that is correct.  This is part of the reason why those who are less educated support Brexit.  But, the difference is not particularly significant.  In 2015, for example, 277,000 EU citizens moved to the UK, while 270,000 UK citizens moved to the EU.  The largest number of EU citizens moving to the UK are from Ireland, not Eastern Europe.

Quote
Besides the welfare of those citizens from other EU countries.  I thought EU has stringent welfare rules that all countries must abide too.


Yes, but the UK could change its laws with respect to welfare to deal with this.  It chooses not to.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 23, 2016, 12:40:22 PM
Calais does not mean Britain does not have sovereignty over its borders currently, nor that anything in this regard would change if the UK left the EU.  I suppose Brexiters believe the number of East Europeans entering the UK would decrease.  However, even EU members must be able to support themselves when they come to Britain, and if they can't, they can be deported after 3 months.

The UK has been barred from deporting some refugees and non-citizens it wished to deport by the European Court of Human Rights.  However, the European Court of Human Rights is not tied to the EU, and the UK would still be bound by its decisions after Brexit.

You are confusing the legality of the situation with the reality of the situation.  Any EU person can enter Britain.  So unprotected EU borders = Britain without control of borders.

You are a lawyer; what does "as of right" mean?  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_the_United_Kingdom#As_of_right
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 23, 2016, 03:24:21 PM
Thanks Bo!  Here, in the US, it isn't unknown for people to move to another state and sign up for welfare depending on how generous the state's welfare rules are.  It sounded like the same was happening in the UK.  I wasn't aware they could change it. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 23, 2016, 03:39:35 PM
You are confusing the legality of the situation with the reality of the situation.  Any EU person can enter Britain.  So unprotected EU borders = Britain without control of borders.


Nope..

1/ Britain maintains border controls and EU citizens cannot enter without showing a form of ID

2/ If said EU person is a threat to Public health, hygiene, a risk to national security they CAN be refused entry ..

3/ Why Trump is being allowed in. Gawd knows ... I also signed the petition - along with nearly 600k people - to keep the clueless loon out ..but at least he and Putin will be disappointed to note British folk had the sense to vote remain

(http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_630_noupscale/576837d32200002d00f81f6f.jpeg?cache=adds8x2pmt)

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 03:48:16 PM
Thanks Bo!  Here, in the US, it isn't unknown for people to move to another state and sign up for welfare depending on how generous the state's welfare rules are.  It sounded like the same was happening in the UK.  I wasn't aware they could change it.


I don't believe most East Europeans emigrating to the UK do so for benefits.  They do so because the economy is stronger than in their home countries, and they can make more money than they do in their home countries.  The fact that they receive benefits is because of UK domestic policies, not EU policy.


Given that this is a shining example of unfettered capitalism, I'm surprised a right winger such as Slumba would view it as a negative.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 03:52:38 PM
Why Trump is being allowed in. Gawd knows ... I also signed the petition - along with nearly 600k people - to keep the clueless loon out ..but at least he and Putin will be disappointed to note British folk had the sense to vote remain


Is that final now?  The papers aren't reporting that, though I assume other media sources are more up to date.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 23, 2016, 03:58:05 PM

Is that final now?  The papers aren't reporting that, though I assume other media sources are more up to date.

Naw, not final..the voting stations just closed ... but this poster is going to sleep quite confident ....  :whew:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 04:07:34 PM
Nigel Farage agrees with you, and it's now the headline on the very pro Brexit Daily Mail (or Daily Fail, as Ade refers to it).


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3657160/Britain-holds-breath-Boris-votes-just-minutes-spare-polling-stations-close-counting-begins-historic-EU-referendum-day-s-torrential-rain-delay-result.html
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 23, 2016, 05:19:40 PM
This is part of the reason why those who are less educated support Brexit.


People who disagree with your opinion are stupid yet according to the article below, If UK leaves the EU, it may trigger more nations to leave as is it's the right choice for them to make. 6 out of 7 nations polled are very likely to leave. One thing they have in common is that they have some of the healthier economies compared to most EU nations and a leaving UK will increase their position of leverage over the EU. They will ask a lot and if the EU doesn't give it to them, they can go on their own to improve their lives. This is not stupid thinking. America is healthy but I don't see us benefiting by joining something like the EU. I view joining the EU would drag a healthy nation down since they will have to pull the weight of those that don't contribute much. Healthy nations in Europe are seeing it that way too. Are they stupid too?

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/if-britain-votes-brexit-will-other-countries-follow-n597536
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 05:25:14 PM
You are confusing the legality of the situation with the reality of the situation.  Any EU person can enter Britain.  So unprotected EU borders = Britain without control of borders.

You are a lawyer; what does "as of right" mean?  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_the_United_Kingdom#As_of_right (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_the_United_Kingdom#As_of_right)

As moby pointed out, EU nationals can be denied entry to the UK.  EU nationals have mobility rights, but the UK still controls its borders. 

The reality is, the UK generally has been soft when it comes to migration, including illegal migration.  Albanians, for example, are not part of the EU, have no right to enter the UK, but tens of thousands live there illegally. 

"As of right" just means no visa is required to enter the country.

Here is an explanation of EU citizen rights re the UK -

http://fullfact.org/europe/explaining-eu-deal-deporting-eu-immigrants/ (http://fullfact.org/europe/explaining-eu-deal-deporting-eu-immigrants/)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 05:28:53 PM
Thanks Bo!  Here, in the US, it isn't unknown for people to move to another state and sign up for welfare depending on how generous the state's welfare rules are.  It sounded like the same was happening in the UK.  I wasn't aware they could change it.


Here also is an explanation of access to benefits for EU members in the UK -


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25134521
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 05:36:26 PM
People who disagree with your opinion are stupid


While I generally do not respond to your posts, as I have virtually no respect for you, this is not what I stated.  I merely noted what I have read in UK papers.  So, take it up with them rather than me.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 23, 2016, 05:49:11 PM
I merely noted what I have read in UK papers.  So, take it up with them rather than me.


You write your posts as if they were your opinion on how you see your facts. You want to give UK papers the credit for calling those who disagree stupid, link their articles. From what I've read, healthier nations in Europe are more likely to leave the EU than struggling nations who don't function well.

While I generally do not respond to your posts, as I have virtually no respect for you,

 

At least we're back to talking to each other. It's a start.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 05:53:36 PM


I'm indifferent

From all I have read, the educated, and the young, favour staying in the EU.  Those who are less educated favour exiting, as their livelihoods have been affected by downward pressure on wages.


You can find your own links.  I've been reading on this issue for months.  I have no opinion on whether the UK should stay or go, either way.  Why would I?  It won't affect me.



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 23, 2016, 08:10:08 PM
Are you pretending that you have never heard of Calais?  Or just being a tosser of red herrings?

Last time I looked, Calais was in France - not Great Britain.

You are confusing the legality of the situation with the reality of the situation.  Any EU person can enter Britain.  So unprotected EU borders = Britain without control of borders.

Of course, any EU person can enter Britain - if they have the correct proof of who they are, and of which country they're a citizen.  Otherwise, just look at moby's post again.

1/ Britain maintains border controls and EU citizens cannot enter without showing a form of ID

2/ If said EU person is a threat to Public health, hygiene, a risk to national security they CAN be refused entry ..
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 23, 2016, 08:33:29 PM
Last time I looked, Calais was in France - not Great Britain.

Of course, any EU person can enter Britain - if they have the correct proof of who they are, and of which country they're a citizen.  Otherwise, just look at moby's post again.

So basically you don't understand, because you don't know.

Let me assist you :

http://www.google.com/search?q=calais+immigration+to+uk&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

Again, you are dealing with legality, not reality. 

Reality is:

"Most [of the new EU passport holders] came from outside the EU, mainly from Morocco, Albania and Turkey. "

as in this article http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/679531/migrant-crisis-five-million-new-EU-citizens-given-right-enter-Britain

Why don't you go ahead and tell me what the likely nationality and religion of the new EU passport holders is likely to be...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 23, 2016, 08:47:27 PM
With about 50% of the vote in the Leave side is ahead by 500,000 votes. It's not over for the Remain side yet but it's going to be an uphill battle for them for the remainder of the night.

I won't be surprised if the Leave side wins but an unforeseen consequence of this Brexit referendum is it may force another Scottish independence referendum.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Larry1 on June 23, 2016, 09:08:38 PM
Brass beat me to posting the current totals, but the following link contains a lot of information about the voting. Nigel Farage is happy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-most-likely-outcome-says-leadi/
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 23, 2016, 09:49:11 PM
I lied..couldn't sleep..

Leave will win

The UK GBP has fallen 10 percent against the US Dollar and the stock market's are WAY down

I simply cannot believe so many people were SO stupid..


If this 'independence' and one voted for a Britain that will be 'economically stronger' .... they need to examine their navels

Only time will show that immigration won't fall - as illegal immigration will go through the roof

I am lucky - I am an EU citizen by my Irish Passport  ... I fear for the uncertainty this will bring in the whole of Europe.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 23, 2016, 09:53:08 PM
I lied..couldn't sleep..

Leave will win

The UK GBP has fallen 10 percent against the US Dollar and the stock market's are WAY down

I simply cannot believe so many people were SO stupid..


If this 'independence' and one voted for a Britain that will be 'economically stronger' .... they need to examine their navels

Only time will show that immigration won't fall - as illegal immigration will go through the roof

I am lucky - I am an EU citizen by my Irish Passport  ... I fear for the uncertainty this will bring in the whole of Europe.

THREE CHEERS for the restoration of Europe after the fall of the corrupt EU!

Separate countries can trade with each other, without a bunch of corrupt pedophiles in Brussels telling everyone what they can or cannot do.

Sweden for the Swedes, Norway for the Norwegians, Germany for the Germans, etc. 

There can be plenty of diversity   8)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 23, 2016, 10:00:04 PM
THREE CHEERS for the restoration of Europe after the fall of the corrupt EU!



Oh yeah,

Those voting leave did so on the premise that

1/ immigration will fall

2/ Britain will be stronger - example better pensions

Please explain to me - how the GBP falling so much - as are the markets -is something to 'cheer' about ?

These idiots voting leave are only sending UK PLC into dangerous waters which will result in a weaker and smaller UK

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 23, 2016, 10:04:36 PM
Oh yeah,

Those voting leave did so on the premise that

1/ immigration will fall

2/ Britain will be stronger - example better pensions

Please explain to me - how the GBP falling so much - as are the markets -is something to 'cheer' about ?

These idiots voting leave are only sending UK PLC into dangerous waters which will result in a weaker and smaller UK

1. Freedom is more important than money. 

2. If the pound falls, exports rise, more people visit via tourism (actual tourists, not dodgy migrants), as 2 examples.

3. The pound falls not because of Brexit but because of uncertainty. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 23, 2016, 10:08:15 PM
Oh yeah,

Please explain to me - how the GBP falling so much - as are the markets -is something to 'cheer' about ?

These idiots voting leave are only sending UK PLC into dangerous waters which will result in a weaker and smaller UK

If I had a few dollars for speculation (I don't right now) I would buy some GBP. I think
the markets over reacted. Time will tell if the market corrects or not.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 23, 2016, 10:24:22 PM

I'd like to wish the people of the UK the best after their newfound independence. Your politicians have lots of work to do and hopefully they will find the strength to give their best effort in moving the UK in the right direction. They will have to work on the details for separating from the EU and work at making new trade agreements around the world. This will not be an easy transition and although the pound is expected to devalue during the transition, it will be temporary. The vote was close and many are still divided but the choice is made and the people of the UK need to be strong and continue to work hard. Do that and everything will be alright. Independence isn't so bad. Just ask Americans.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 23, 2016, 10:33:00 PM
The Brits have voted against the ESTABLISMENT.  Is America next? 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: southernX on June 23, 2016, 10:34:46 PM
at the end of the day the fact remains that the UK has been a country of desire for many people

that will not change because they leave the EU

they still will be a place people will desire to interact with in all the various ways , yes there will be a correction in the short term thats to be expected , but im sure it will level out to a new ''norm '' quickly enough

can say as i blame the uk peoples for voting to leave , i would have been a yes vote myself if i lived there  ;)

SX
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 10:44:58 PM
The Brits have voted against the ESTABLISMENT.  Is America next?


How did they vote against the establishment?


Brexit came about because because the Tory party was tearing itself apart.  Two thirds of Tory MP's (as the party in power, the "establishment") supported Brexit.  Had this debate not been occurring in the governing party, there would have been no vote.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 10:45:50 PM
Brexit is bad for Ukraine, BTW, as the UK has always been one of Ukraine's staunchest allies within the EU.  France, Italy and Germany, not so much.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 10:50:37 PM
LOL on comments regarding Britain's "independence".  This was a country that, at one point, ruled almost half the world and, almost until WWII, was the world's powerhouse. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 23, 2016, 10:53:49 PM
The Brits have voted against the ESTABLISMENT.  Is America next?

Indeed, Gator. The anti Trump people will be paying attention to this referendum.

Very few people supposedly 'in the know' in the UK expected/called this result.

How many people supposedly 'in the know' are telling the American voting public there's no way Trump can win? Maybe a few less convincingly this a.m.

Congrats to the people of the UK. I posted up thread based on my time residing in the UK I would have probably voted to exit as well. I think they've made the right decision.

Now we wait and see if any other countries follow suit.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 23, 2016, 10:58:02 PM
Brexit is bad for Ukraine, BTW, as the UK has always been one of Ukraine's staunchest allies within the EU.  France, Italy and Germany, not so much.

I doubt the UK will change it's stance on Ukraine, Bo. Infact, the UK might even strengthen it's stance on Ukraine now that (in reasonable time) it's free of the watering down effects of the EU policies towards Russia.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 11:05:49 PM
I doubt the UK will change it's stance on Ukraine, Bo. Infact, the UK might even strengthen it's stance on Ukraine now that (in reasonable time) it's free of the watering down effects of the EU policies towards Russia.

Brass


Yes.  However, the UK had a big influence on EU policy in this respect. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 23, 2016, 11:25:50 PM

Yes.  However, the UK had a big influence on EU policy in this respect.

That's an interesting insight, I never thought of the effect of UK on EU policy.

Does anybody know the the time frame of the exit?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 23, 2016, 11:31:19 PM
I read two years.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 23, 2016, 11:35:20 PM
That's an interesting insight, I never thought of the effect of UK on EU policy.

Does anybody know the the time frame of the exit?

Two years according to the BBC (and now Bo  ;)  )...Article 50 was mentioned...

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-mechanics-of-leaving-the-eu-explaining-article-50/

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 24, 2016, 02:31:18 AM
You write your posts as if they were your opinion on how you see your facts. You want to give UK papers the credit for calling those who disagree stupid, link their articles. From what I've read, healthier nations in Europe are more likely to leave the EU than struggling nations who don't function well.

At least we're back to talking to each other. It's a start.


When did less educated become stupid?  That is the same as saying ignorance is stupidity.  Neither is true.


It makes sense if you think about it.  Jobs that people with, say high school education, would have competition from EU immigrants that would accept lower paid jobs.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 24, 2016, 02:49:24 AM

It is a good example of small minded  ignorance believing in short term  self interest overiding common sense.
Maybe when the currency collapses   he will be able to change all those roubles  that he bought( that he was  so strong in recommending others buy at about 35=USD$1) back into GBP and buy up England on the cheap !


That didn't take long.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/23/markets-live-will-sterling-surge-or-slump-as-the-eu-referendum-c/

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on June 24, 2016, 03:19:28 AM

That didn't take long.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/23/markets-live-will-sterling-surge-or-slump-as-the-eu-referendum-c/

Going to go down a LOOONNNNNGGGG  way yet.

Another issue not mentioned in thread yet -- the UK as we have known it is likely to break up .None of this is a good thing.
Quote
"Scotland clearly and decisively voted to remain part of the EU", - said Sturgeon.
Earlier, the minister claimed that Brexit could be the first step towards the independence of Scotland. Against the background of general discontent with the former leader of the Scottish Nationalist Alex Salmond made a requirement of holding a second referendum on the independence of Scotland."
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on June 24, 2016, 04:10:56 AM
Exiting is a long process, short term both EUR and GBP will be down a bit but no disaster.  EUR will likely stabilize at pre exit rates but GBP down for the long haul.  Scotland and N.Ireland referendums if held would likely push the GBP down further as both seem to be favorable to remaining in EU.

Sure, unexpected result but no disaster yet.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Darth_Budda on June 24, 2016, 04:23:41 AM
WOW,,
I am surprised...


The UK has voted itself into some major problems...

Now Irish and Scottish national parties will try even harder to break away so they can rejoin the EU....


I also wounder if this will cause the EU to move to the left,, politically..


Also,, I guess this makes the UK an official American colony.. Once they split with the EU...
 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 24, 2016, 05:28:47 AM
Exiting is a long process, short term both EUR and GBP will be down a bit but no disaster.  EUR will likely stabilize at pre exit rates but GBP down for the long haul.  Scotland and N.Ireland referendums if held would likely push the GBP down further as both seem to be favorable to remaining in EU.

Sure, unexpected result but no disaster yet.


I agree with BC.  I think it's a little too early to be calling this a financial disaster.  These things take time to play out. 

Some interesting times ahead...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 24, 2016, 06:08:07 AM
How can you say that when all the polls have "stay" and "leave" both running at around 50%?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/eu-referendum-poll-tracker-and-odds1/

So much for your polls, eh?  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 24, 2016, 07:32:42 AM

I agree with BC.  I think it's a little too early to be calling this a financial disaster.  These things take time to play out. 

Some interesting times ahead...

My guess is that the central banks will look to punish GB for a while. Maybe even enough to draw them into war. They don't like it one bit. How much and to what degree remains to be seen. They likely won't punish for long as GB is the 5th largest economy
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 24, 2016, 07:55:06 AM
  This was a country that, at one point, ruled almost half the world and, almost until WWII, was the world's powerhouse.


Exactly. The people in the UK are very capable yet "educated" people think life doesn't get any better outside the EU. Go figure.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 24, 2016, 07:58:03 AM
The people in the UK are very capable yet "educated" people

Last night proved otherwise... those with degrees tended to vote remain...go figure THAT
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 24, 2016, 07:58:38 AM

How did they vote against the establishment?


To understand my point, look  beyond the UK governance (Tory, Labour, etc.) to the next layer, i. e. the EU.   

                                          EU = establishment. 

Now consider the degree to which UK governance knelt down to EU not only in respect but in submission.  From having done consulting work for the EU, the offices in Belgium in my opinion had much power, and their power was growing. 

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.

What we have now is a return towards free markets.  Greed is not good, but "Free markets" is good (over the long term).  We are now in the short term of major change, and to be precise, the beginning of change.  Long term?

What I found interesting is how narrow the vote went for such a huge black and white decision.  This is not a vote where the narrowly winning party will need to compromise closely with the narrowly losing party to make "gray" decisions.  "Out" is "out," there is no gray. 

Caveat:  I am an American, so what do I know about the EU! I look forward to the diverse opinions of people who live, sleep and work there. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 24, 2016, 08:08:00 AM
My guess is that the central banks will look to punish GB for a while. Maybe even enough to draw them into war. They don't like it one bit. How much and to what degree remains to be seen. They likely won't punish for long as GB is the 5th largest economy


It will be interesting to watch.  I have been reading a little about exiting the EU.  It sounds incredibly lengthy and I don't doubt the UK will have a tough time of it.  I wonder what will happen if agreements can't be made during the process.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 24, 2016, 08:10:31 AM
To understand my point, look  beyond the UK governance (Tory, Labour, etc.) to the next layer, i. e. the EU.   

                                          EU = establishment. 

Now consider the degree to which UK governance knelt down to EU not only in respect but in submission.  From having done consulting work for the EU, the offices in Belgium in my opinion had much power, and their power was growing. 

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.

What we have now is a return towards free markets.  Greed is not good, but "Free markets" is good (over the long term).  We are now in the short term of major change, and to be precise, the beginning of change.  Long term?

What I found interesting is how narrow the vote went for such a huge black and white decision.  This is not a vote where the narrowly winning party will need to compromise closely with the narrowly losing party to make "gray" decisions.  "Out" is "out," there is no gray. 

Caveat:  I am an American, so what do I know about the EU! I look forward to the diverse opinions of people who live, sleep and work there.

Phil,

your caveat was well advised..

When did you try to freely trade with the US from Europe.. ?

I don't mean buying selling on ebay....How the UK expects to make trade deals in 2 years - when the EU/ US are near stalemate re The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Britain will be a minnow and we just voted to lose jobs and increase the cost of living

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 24, 2016, 08:26:40 AM

It will be interesting to watch.  I have been reading a little about exiting the EU.  It sounds incredibly lengthy and I don't doubt the UK will have a tough time of it.  I wonder what will happen if agreements can't be made during the process.

Based on the rumblings from several other EU countries this a.m. there may not be an EU to negotiate an exit with in two years....

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums

Besides, the frumpy frau is already calling for everyone to make nice...

“Firstly, the future of the EU depends on how well we prove ourselves to be willing and capable of making the right decisions and not estranging the UK.”

http://www.thelocal.de/20160624/merkel-brexit-has-cut-into-european-unity-eu

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on June 24, 2016, 08:55:41 AM
Based on the rumblings from several other EU countries this a.m. there may not be an EU to negotiate an exit with in two years....

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums


Oh no great worries..  Voices are swinging as far and wide as currencies and markets at the moment. All eyes will be on UK, the process and results going forward.  EU will not make it so easy for UK to exit.  I doubt there will be other serious moves except in UK (Scotland, N.Ireland) for a few years to come.

Note in your article that some Italians were in favor of dropping or changing the EURO currency and not exiting EU.  Former low wage countries like Italy, Spain, Greece etc  have suffered most with perceived increases in cost of life related to implementation of the EURO.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 24, 2016, 09:16:53 AM
Last night proved otherwise... those with degrees tended to vote remain...go figure THAT

I did figure that. Many who are educated think it's best to stay with the EU out of comfort(their own) and fear based on losing that comfort. Many of the officers in the American colonial army and Benjamin Franklin had lots to lose going to war with the British Empire. They owned land and were wealthy. By going to war and leading the effort, they risked it all but if they kept the status quo bowing to the Empire, they would guarantee living the rest of their lives well to do. Fortunately they did care about other Americans to risk going at life without the British Empire. People in the UK doesn't have to risk war leaving the EU. Americans are doing better than most from top to bottom. We have the highest percentages of millionaires and billionaires. Even our poor and homeless are fatter than their equivalents elsewhere in the world. Give Brexit a chance to succeed. You will experience some discomfort in the first few years but it may be the right decision for future generations. If not, the EU will take you back. They don't like you leaving either.

Since the pound is down, A lot of businesses are going to want to buy goods from the UK. A lot of investors will be investing in the pound. Where the pound is at today isn't realistic but only there because some people panicked.

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.


I agree it was good overall. One of it's original purposes was to create a bond between neighbors which would discourage future wars. It served it's purpose and today NATO is adequate enough to continue that mission.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 24, 2016, 09:50:28 AM
Oh no great worries..  Voices are swinging as far and wide as currencies and markets at the moment. All eyes will be on UK, the process and results going forward.  EU will not make it so easy for UK to exit.  I doubt there will be other serious moves except in UK (Scotland, N.Ireland) for a few years to come.

Note in your article that some Italians were in favor of dropping or changing the EURO currency and not exiting EU.  Former low wage countries like Italy, Spain, Greece etc  have suffered most with perceived increases in cost of life related to implementation of the EURO.

I'm not worried. I've never been more than luke warm on the EU in the first place. If it folds I wouldn't have a problem with it. I even called for it's dissolution last year in relation to their policies regarding Russia and Ukraine.

I'm of the opinion the media frenzy and market corrections will abate in a day or two and in a year or two people will be wondering what all the fuss was about.

Scotland's a different matter however, if the EU is weakened they'll not be so inclined to jump the UK bandwagon onto a sinking ship.

Brass

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 24, 2016, 09:57:28 AM

Britain will be a minnow and we just voted to lose jobs and increase the cost of living

This was already happening.  Not the "minnow" but the decline of the global economy and how that affects the standard of living not just in EK but in the OECD to include the US. 

The economies of the OECD, measured in rate of real income,  have been slowing for a long time.  The sum of gross domestic savings plus entitlements have been constant for decades.  Each increase in entitlements has been offset by a decrease in savings.   This decreases capital available for  investment, vital for growth.   

I just now listened to Alan Greenspan.  He is concerned less with recession and more with stagnation.  If the 4% growth can not be achieved to support the increase in entitlements, rate of entitlements will need to be slowed.   This is not happening, and is increasing in many forms such as Obamacare.  It is not the time for providing free education, supporting more refugees, and taking other "feel good" and noble steps.  Some day the piper must be paid.  As Greenspan said, there is something called "double entry bookkeeping."  Greenspan has never been more concerned about the future.  And Greenspan was near complacent before the collapse of Lehman and the housing market.  Greenspan disagrees with the Brexit, saying it is "corrosive." 

Lets examine  your forecast of the UK being a "minnow."  It is all relative.  If the ECB is destined for even more problems such as supporting the southern tier economies, would you prefer to be independent or be part of the northern tier necessary to prop up the ECB and the Euro.  It will be bad either way, but maybe better alone.  Being the contrarian is frequently correct in investing. 

IMO the Brexit merely accelerates the inevitable for all of us if change is not made in programs such as entitlements.   

Caveat No. 2:  I am not an economist.  But what do they know?   

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 24, 2016, 10:29:31 AM
I believe we in the US have less to worry about than the Europeans.

If we can not stem the growth of government and entitlements, we can always print money, more money than EU nations.   And while some may contend this inflates our currency, making it worthless, the US can always park an aircraft carrier or two offshore of a another nation's capital and demand "Cash our check!"
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 24, 2016, 10:34:24 AM
Last night proved otherwise... those with degrees tended to vote remain...go figure THAT

They are more sheep-like, after being indoctrinated for more years than the others?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 24, 2016, 11:36:06 AM
IMO the Brexit merely accelerates the inevitable for all of us if change is not made in programs such as entitlements.   
 

The inevitable will happen anyway. Maybe the sooner the better. Once government gives people entitlements in exchange for votes, it's hard to take those entitlements away. Later, something has to give and people's feelings are going to get hurt.

I think with less bureaucracy burdening people in the UK, the harder they'll work for themselves. If people get to keep the bulk of the fruits of their labor, they are more inclined to work harder. Humans by nature are selfish. Accept that fact and governments can capitalize. Being selfish is not a bad thing because successful people contribute more to the benefit of others than those who can barely take care of themselves.

I like Alan Greenspan. Smart guy but when he was in control of the Fed, he failed to implement enough policies to shrink the housing market bubble before it busted. He alone may not have been able to stop the bubble from growing but he knew the bubble existed and could've prevented less pain even if it hurt people's feelings that they are not qualified/responsible enough to buy a house.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 24, 2016, 12:05:34 PM
What does Russia think?

Putin takes a swipe at Cameron month after Cameron took one at him; however, Putin does not gloat. 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/brexit-putin-takes-a-swipe-at-cameron-after-eu-vote/ar-AAhAlcz?ocid=spartanntp

Although Putin is not gloating publicly, he surely is smiling at anything that weakens Europe according to this pro-EU opinion.  This opinion piece reminds us of the number of Ukrainians who were killed while waving the EU flag at Maidan. 

http://www.rferl.org/content/daily-vertical-transcript-brexit-makes-putin-smile/27817409.html.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 24, 2016, 12:15:53 PM
They are more sheep-like, after being indoctrinated for more years than the others?

Sure, the real sheep are wondering why most stuff we import will be more costly  ..those with degrees knew that voting to be 'independent' was pure folly ..
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 24, 2016, 12:16:51 PM

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/british-lose-right-to-claim-that-americans-are-dumber?mbid=nl_062416+Borowitz+Newsletter+%281%29&CNDID
=25842009&spMailingID=9108242&spUserID=MTA5MjQwNDEyMDc0S0&spJobID
=942373192&spReportId=OTQyMzczMTkyS0 (http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/british-lose-right-to-claim-that-americans-are-dumber?mbid=nl_062416+Borowitz+Newsletter+%281%29&CNDID
=25842009&spMailingID=9108242&spUserID
=MTA5MjQwNDEyMDc0S0&spJobID
=942373192&spReportId=OTQyMzczMTkyS0)

BRITISH LOSE RIGHT TO CLAIM THAT AMERICANS ARE DUMBER
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 24, 2016, 12:57:40 PM
BRITISH LOSE RIGHT TO CLAIM THAT AMERICANS ARE DUMBER[/b]
 (http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/british-lose-right-to-claim-that-americans-are-dumber?

[b)
Sure, the real sheep are wondering why most stuff we import will be more costly  ..those with degrees knew that voting to be 'independent' was pure folly ..

You know what's worse than listening to the non-stop Euro bleating from the left wing media?...

Reading your non-stop foot stomping temper tantrum over the UK's vote to return to common sense.

I can't think of a more apropos image in response to your whinging ...

(http://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/b7/69/63/b769635956f082e94977922731611fd2.jpg)

If you have something intelligent to add to the discussion then do so otherwise Shhh the adults are posting.

Brass



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 24, 2016, 01:38:22 PM
Sure, the real sheep are wondering why most stuff we import will be more costly  ..those with degrees knew that voting to be 'independent' was pure folly ..

It depends upon what is negotiated.  If Germany wishes to spank the British popka as an example to other nations considering exiting from the EU, it will be messy. 

In a reasonable divorce, both parties come out with less. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 24, 2016, 01:39:39 PM

BRITISH LOSE RIGHT TO CLAIM THAT AMERICANS ARE DUMBER

I disagree.  Obama is still the "dumber." 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 24, 2016, 01:51:57 PM
You know what's worse than listening to the non-stop Euro bleating from the left wing media?...

Reading your non-stop foot stomping temper tantrum over the UK's vote to return to common sense.

I can't think of a more apropos image in response to your whinging ...



Brass


lol  The sky is falling rhetoric is fun to watch.  I expect a lot more when Trump wins the presidency.   :P
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 24, 2016, 01:58:06 PM
BRITISH LOSE RIGHT TO CLAIM THAT AMERICANS ARE DUMBER[/b]
 (http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/british-lose-right-to-claim-that-americans-are-dumber?
[b)

It's satire written by a comedian.

It seems the majority of people with the most education and life experience voted for Brexit. The link below also shows the majority of young people with less education and knowledge of how the world works voted to stay with the EU. I trust older people over young to make the right decisions.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/young-people-voter-turnout-data-for-brexit-vote-143811714.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma#
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 24, 2016, 02:02:52 PM

lol  The sky is falling rhetoric is fun to watch.  I expect a lot more when Trump wins the presidency.   :P

  :D According to CNN if he does win Planet Earth will break orbit and fall into the Sun.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 24, 2016, 02:13:49 PM
  I expect a lot more when Trump wins the presidency.   :P


Brexit is good news for Trump. It shows if the polls are wrong, it's going to favor the one or party strongest on preventing uncontrolled immigration.

Funny thing is if the EU and Obama took care of Syria like they should have, there wouldn't be a Brexit. Millions of refugees fleeing that contribute nothing to the EU's economy and the fact the EU tells UK to keep their borders open have tipped the scales in favor of Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on June 24, 2016, 02:44:15 PM
Earlier in this thread, I posted comments strictly from an economic viewpoint.

From the economic viewpoint, UK should have stayed in the EU.  No semi-intelligent person with any knowledge of economics would disagree with that.

However, as I have read what others have posted and viewed some news stories on TV, I came to realize there was another part of this.

This second part related to the immigration situation.  i.e. A mass of people coming into UK whom a great number of UK people did not want to come in.  As a citizen of USA, I can certainly understand this.

Most of the posters here are throwing out opinions (including myself originally) without seeming to understand these two separate issues.

Now it appears that none of us, and not even most of the UK voters have a real handle on what will be the effect on any 'unwanted' immigration into UK.

So UK citizens are going to face an unknown situation with respect to one of the issues (immigration) and face hardship with respect to the second issue (economics).

I think the worst outcome will happen:

1) Unwanted immigration will continue into UK and 2) severe economic crisis will occur in UK.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 24, 2016, 02:50:40 PM
To understand Brexit, one should examine why Britain joined the EU in 1973.   

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 24, 2016, 04:34:25 PM
Questions from an Ignorant Yank

I may be wrong but its seems the  UK has never fully embraced the concept of the EU.  It was not part of the original common market, the predecessor to the EU.  The UK never adopted the euro even though other EU countries used the euro as their currency.   

Did the UK negotiate a special status when joining the common market and the EU?  What was it?  Does the UK share the same responsibility for backing the euro as those who use the euro?  Did the UK have to guarantee  loans to Greece and other southern tier countries?  Are there other members of the EU with special conditions tied to their membership in the EU?   

Please help.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on June 24, 2016, 04:53:11 PM
Questions from an Ignorant Yank

I may be wrong but its seems the  UK has never fully embraced the concept of the EU.  It was not part of the original common market, the predecessor to the EU.  The UK never adopted the euro even though other EU countries used the euro as their currency.   

Did the UK negotiate a special status when joining the common market and the EU?  What was it?  Does the UK share the same responsibility for backing the euro as those who use the euro?  Did the UK have to guarantee  loans to Greece and other southern tier countries?  Are there other members of the EU with special conditions tied to their membership in the EU?   

Please help.

Gator,

from another ignorant Yank  :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-outs_in_the_European_Union

best I could find.

Cheers!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 24, 2016, 04:59:53 PM
Questions from an Ignorant Yank

I may be wrong but its seems the  UK has never fully embraced the concept of the EU.  It was not part of the original common market, the predecessor to the EU.  The UK never adopted the euro even though other EU countries used the euro as their currency.   

Did the UK negotiate a special status when joining the common market and the EU?  What was it?  Does the UK share the same responsibility for backing the euro as those who use the euro?  Did the UK have to guarantee  loans to Greece and other southern tier countries?  Are there other members of the EU with special conditions tied to their membership in the EU?   

Please help.

I'm ignorant on the subject of the EU as well but, I would expect the central banks to crash the Sterling or, UK just caused a domino effect of the EU. It would appear (at least from here) one or the other is going to have to fail. The EU is nothing more than an economic union that crossed over and brought geopolitics along with it. Both the EU and UK going about their respective business and prospering doesn't appear to be an option.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 24, 2016, 05:25:01 PM
Well, let's take a look at the damage shall we...

FTSE 100 Index

INDEXFTSE: UKX - Jun 20, 8:00 AM GMT+1
6021.09


INDEXFTSE: UKX - Jun 24, 4:46 PM GMT+1
6,138.69

Well look at that. The FTSE ended the week up.  :o

http://www.google.ca/#q=FTSE+100 (http://)

USD per 1 GBP One week review.

17 Jun 2016 22:00 UTC

GBP/USD close:1.43147 low:1.32383 high:1.50056

23 Jun 2016 22:45 UTC

GBP/USD close:1.36834 low:1.32383 high:1.49036

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W (http://)

Factor in the 10 pence spike on the 22nd due the markets speculating it was going to be a Remain vote and it's about a 3% drop on the day.

Now, I'm no financial Guru but it seems to me the Market boys pushing up the FTSE and Sterling just prior to the referendum might have served up one of the most lucrative money making sessions of the year for them. ;)

So much for the sky is falling.

Brass

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on June 24, 2016, 05:47:47 PM
Did the UK have to guarantee  loans to Greece and other southern tier countries? 

Here's a short list of who Greece owes..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-much-greece-owes-germany-others-2015-07-09

Other than private investors and finance companies it doesn't look like UK was that involved in direct financing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_System_of_Central_Banks 

They are a part of the European Central Bank, but segregated from the EURO in a scheme called Eurosystem for all the countries that do not use the common currency.

I'm ignorant on the subject of the EU as well but, I would expect the central banks to crash the Sterling or, UK just caused a domino effect of the EU. It would appear (at least from here) one or the other is going to have to fail. The EU is nothing more than an economic union that crossed over and brought geopolitics along with it. Both the EU and UK going about their respective business and prospering doesn't appear to be an option.

Really I don't think much can fail.  Yes the EUR lost a couple pennies against the USD, but GBP seems to have fared much worse against both if I'm reading things correctly, no currency disaster by any means.

Stocks on the other hand, worldwide took a beating, but not close to 2008 territory. 2 Trillion wiped off the books in a day, but that will slowly recover over time for the most part.

The worst is probably over for currencies and things will recover a bit the next weeks until things get settled in.  UK GBP and their markets will probably still stay down for a long while, maybe going lower in spurts if UK splits up.  They are now heading upstream with one paddle and it ain't in a canoe. 

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 24, 2016, 06:59:05 PM

BRITISH LOSE RIGHT TO CLAIM THAT AMERICANS ARE DUMBER

Don't worry, we will do something dumb soon enough and not even realize
unless it's pointed out to us. Lastly, let's wait and see if things actually turn
out as bad as they say. I wouldn't be surprised if the UK bounced right back
and landed on their feet.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 24, 2016, 08:01:32 PM
So much for your British polls, eh?  ;D

Yep, they got it wrong.  However, although of course it doesn't matter now, I wonder if the result might have been different if the weather had not been so bad in several parts of the country.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 24, 2016, 08:13:50 PM
Yep, they got it wrong.  However, although of course it doesn't matter now, I wonder if the result might have been different if the weather had not been so bad in several parts of the country.

70% turnout I read, that's a pretty good turn out
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 24, 2016, 08:15:34 PM
So basically you don't understand, because you don't know.

Let me assist you :

http://www.google.com/search?q=calais+immigration+to+uk&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

Again, you are dealing with legality, not reality. 

I'm well aware of the camps, and, yes, I'm dealing with legality.  It doesn't change anything in my post.

Reality is:

"Most [of the new EU passport holders] came from outside the EU, mainly from Morocco, Albania and Turkey. "

as in this article http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/679531/migrant-crisis-five-million-new-EU-citizens-given-right-enter-Britain

Why don't you go ahead and tell me what the likely nationality and religion of the new EU passport holders is likely to be...

Which part of "EU passport holders with the appropriate proof of identity are allowed into Britain" can't you grasp?  Do you seriously think that all new EU passport holders are suddenly going to want to enter Britain on some sort of whim?  There are only a few thousand in the camps, not millions, and many of those don't have EU passports anyway.  The "five million" quoted are the numbers over about the last seven years - not the last few months.  Of course some illegals will be successfully smuggled in - but nowhere near the numbers which permeate the USA.

As for the nationality and religion of the new EU passport holders - give me a break!  The nationality could be anything from Portuguese to Polish.  So what if many of them are Muslims?  Sure, a few may be radicals in waiting - but the vast  (and I mean VAST) majority are looking only for a new home, free of the economic or political tyranny that many have experienced in their lives to date, something which you obviously cannot comprehend from the safety of your soapbox.  The UK's immigration policy may change once it leaves the EU, but it's still a member at the moment, with all the obligations which that entails.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 24, 2016, 08:22:26 PM
I'm well aware of the camps, and, yes, I'm dealing with legality.  It doesn't change anything in my post.

 So what if many of them are Muslims?  Sure, a few may be radicals in waiting - but the vast  (and I mean VAST) majority are looking only for a new home, free of the economic or political tyranny that many have experienced in their lives to date, something which you obviously cannot comprehend from the safety of your soapbox.  The UK's immigration policy may change once it leaves the EU, but it's still a member at the moment, with all the obligations which that entails.

Up thread you told me you didn't know about Calais.  Now you indicate you do know about it.  Maybe a misunderstanding.

I will send you some of your favorite chocolate or candy.  Only 0.5 grams out of 100g will have a lethal dose of cyanide.  That's OK, right? 

"Zero Muslims in my country" is a choice that British people living in Britain, not unelected faceless bureaucrats in Brussels, or unaccountable Germans or Swede immigration officers, should get to make.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 24, 2016, 08:25:16 PM
70% turnout I read, that's a pretty good turn out

Not bad at all, but that's still over nine million people who didn't/couldn't vote.  Many of those were younger voters, a substantial majority of that group who did vote having elected to Remain in the EU.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1334238/low-turnout-in-key-remain-areas-london-and-scotland-hands-boost-to-leave-campaign/

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 24, 2016, 08:45:05 PM
Up thread you told me you didn't know about Calais.  Now you indicate you do know about it.  Maybe a misunderstanding.

As you hadn't mentioned the camps, and I can't read your mind, how was I supposed to know what you were talking about?

I will send you some of your favorite chocolate or candy.  Only 0.5 grams out of 100g will have a lethal dose of cyanide.  That's OK, right? 

No problem - I'm immune to cyanide.  :devil:

"Zero Muslims in my country" is a choice that British people living in Britain, not unelected faceless bureaucrats in Brussels, or unaccountable Germans or Swede immigration officers, should get to make.

Seriously?  And you have the balls to suggest this, when nearly 5% of the existing British population is Muslim?  And nearly half of them were actually born in the UK?  What next?  You want to vote for "No Muslims in the USA" as well?  Actually, you don't need to answer that, because it's patently obvious which way you swing when it comes to "democracy."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom

An extract from that page:

Quote from: Wikipedia
Islam is the second largest religion with results from the United Kingdom Census 2011 giving the UK Muslim population in 2011 as ~2,706,066, ~4.5% of the total population. The vast majority of Muslims in the United Kingdom live in England: 2,660,116 (5.02% of the population).

Look at page 24 of the attached report:

http://www.mcb.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/MCBCensusReport_2015.pdf

This shows that the biggest proportion by far of the Muslims in Britain are Pakistani, either by birth or ethnic origin.  Pakistan was a founding member of the British Commonwealth, although it did suspend its membership from 1972 to 1989 after East Pakistan declared independence and was recognised internationally as Bangladesh.  Are you now going to say that Commonwealth citizens should no longer be welcome in the country from which the British Commonwealth takes its name?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 24, 2016, 08:57:47 PM
From the economic viewpoint, UK should have stayed in the EU.  No semi-intelligent person with any knowledge of economics would disagree with that.


As I showed in a previous post, older, wiser people were most likely to vote Brexit. The only thing I agree with economists is that UK will experience a rough ride in the first few years. I don't agree UK will be hurt long term. The UK isn't going to cease to exist but there is a chance the EU will cease to exist. Greenland left the EU in the 80's and I don't see them pounding on the EU's doors to get back in. If the economists think joining the EU is such a wonderful thing, why don't they suggest USA to join to improve our economy? I don't think the EU is the miracle answer for any nation except those looking for help, such as Ukraine.

With the current immigration of millions of Syrians to Europe and having to obey orders from headquarters in Brussels isn't something I would be happy with. Just as we seen a wave of terrorism the last 6 months from children of immigrants in America and the EU, we will see a huge wave in 20 years after many more radicals will be born in the EU. Terrorism hurts the economy. Immigration can help a country but the right kind of immigration is needed. America likes to bring in hard working and intelligent people. If the EU can bring in a million immigrants a year to help with their industry, it should be with hard working and intelligent people. They met their quota with the Syrians and few are hard working or educated to our standards. I don't know of one country that taps into Syria for their biggest and brightest minds. They go elsewhere for talent.

In the link below you will find nations like Germany, Spain and the Netherlands having the same percentage of people who want to leave the EU as the UK did. France would leave right now if there was a vote today. The people in those nations feel they are dragged down by the bureaucrats in Brussels and by other nations not pulling their weight. The only nation that isn't pulling it's weight that will vote themselves out is Greece and that's because they are bitter of having to live life with strict austerity rules dictated by the EU. In a previous link there was 6 out of 7 nations polled that would vote themselves out. Can that many people be wrong and the economists right? We won't see immediate reactions from other nations. Europeans will watch UK for a couple of years to better understand the struggles of a divorce and later it's benefits. I didn't like my divorce from my first wife but I knew I could do much better. The UK, France, and Germany definitely could do better. Italy's got BC, pure American talent, so they'll be alright.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-referendum-brexit-fear-contagion-end-of-european-union-142100907.html
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 24, 2016, 10:03:03 PM
[quote author=Anotherkiwi link=topic=20940.msg434661#msg434661 date=14668

This shows that the biggest proportion by far of the Muslims in Britain are Pakistani, either by birth or ethnic origin.  Pakistan was a founding member of the British Commonwealth, although it did suspend its membership from 1972 to 1989 after East Pakistan declared independence and was recognised internationally as Bangladesh.  Are you now going to say that Commonwealth citizens should no longer be welcome in the country from which the British Commonwealth takes its name?
[/quote]

It's up to the British how they want to handle immigration to their country.

It is not my call, and to the point, not Germany or Sweden's or Brussels' bureaucrats call.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 24, 2016, 10:11:25 PM
It's up to the British how they want to handle immigration to their country.

It is not my call, and to the point, not Germany or Sweden's or Brussels' bureaucrats call.

And yet you're the one who posted this:


"Zero Muslims in my country" is a choice that British people living in Britain, not unelected faceless bureaucrats in Brussels, or unaccountable Germans or Swede immigration officers, should get to make.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 24, 2016, 10:34:32 PM
As I showed in a previous post, older, wiser people were most likely to vote Brexit.

No,all you proved was that you were as clueless as they were

Let me demonstrate for you. Boston in Lincolnshire voted BIG style [more than 70 percent ] for leave....it just happens to have the highest population of E. European immigrants - who mainly work in agriculture

I have a neighbour who voted leave- on the basis of too many foreigners coming- too many at the hospital

These migrants are mainly 'white Christians'....

The 'Muslims' are mainly from a previous wave of migrants - many who are second/ third generation UK citizens and anyone from outside the EU -incll. America / 'Oz, etc., has to be sponsored, speak good English - just like getting a visa for a wife. If you have big money and are non-EU ' welcome'...


The leave vote was mainly about not being able to control the 'white christian' Europeans, by lying about the threat of Turkish migrants being allowed freedom of movement .

The Brexir campaign was mostly about 'controlling immigration ', but will ultimately result in larger illegal immigration - as time will prove..The UK was NOT part of agreements to take the share of the load of migrants from Syria and north Africa and when the French tell us to take our border controls to our side of the channel - as they WILL ..the daft Brexit voters in places like the port of Dover will realise, 'Duh, we screwed up'...


In the meantime 300 plus billion was wiped off the value of shares, on day one of us being better off ...

Yup, 'real' smart move by 'intelligent' people who 'won back control' ..
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on June 24, 2016, 10:49:51 PM
I doubt the UK will change it's stance on Ukraine, Bo. Infact, the UK might even strengthen it's stance on Ukraine now that (in reasonable time) it's free of the watering down effects of the EU policies towards Russia.

Brass

That's an interesting insight, I never thought of the effect of UK on EU policy.

Does anybody know the the time frame of the exit?

Quote
During the two-year negotiation period, EU laws would still apply to the UK. The UK would continue to participate in other EU business as normal, but it would not participate in internal EU discussions or decisions on its own withdrawal.

So politically speaking UK is out as soon as they invoke article 50.

What does Russia think?

....

Although Putin is not gloating publicly, he surely is smiling at anything that weakens Europe according to this pro-EU opinion. 


Gator,

He is surely smiling.. but maybe not for the reasons you think..

Another aspect aside from the Ukraine issue is that the US will lose a lot of influence with EU.  Uk was always a staunch supporter of US policies and probably helped to tip the political balance in favor of US operations, especially Iraq.

Aside from losing an 'Ace' in the hole EU wise and even veto influence, consider also that the only one US air base in UK will remain there.  The others are closing down and units being consolidated, mainly to Germany.  Host nations to US/NATO usually 'allow' non NATO operations and overflight.  Remember Turkey, a NATO partner 'allowing' military operations to be based from US bases there?  I don't think there is much in the way of single nations or EU from blocking operations that NATO is not involved in if EU and the single nations do not agree to such.  Germany hosts two major air bases, Italy one and Turkey one.

I don't know how much support there would be for a new US build up in EU.

Putin will surely be wooing EU a good bit.

Had Hillary posted this during her tenure as Sec. State, it would have been likely classified LOL.


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 24, 2016, 10:53:04 PM


Yup, 'real' smart move by 'intelligent' people who 'won back control' ..

How did Rotherham area vote, BTW?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 25, 2016, 12:03:55 AM
No,all you proved was that you were as clueless as they were


Yup, old people don't know what's best for their economy and country. You made the right decision siding with the people, who are on average, a few years past their teens. Which group is more likely to vote on a position out of selfishness? Which group is more likely to vote on a position for the benefit of future generations even if it caused them temporary hardship?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 25, 2016, 12:10:04 AM
Brexit - a second referendum



 600 k plus voters  are asking for a 2nd referendum and a pause to Brexit

Thought I'd use RT for a change

http://www.rt.com/uk/348228-petition-parliament-uk-brexit/ (http://www.rt.com/uk/348228-petition-parliament-uk-brexit/)

http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/ (http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/)

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.

Naturally, I am one of 600k - already - votes
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 25, 2016, 12:20:00 AM
http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/ (http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/)

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.


This stuff can happen in the UK? Making up new rules after the game is over? No side is going to get 60% so you obviously are going to have an endless cycle of referendums which means the UK will remain in the EU. Nice trick msmobyone but I don't think the uneducated old folks are going let you make more rules until you win.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 25, 2016, 01:37:11 AM
It's up to the British how they want to handle immigration to their country.

It is not my call, and to the point, not Germany or Sweden's or Brussels' bureaucrats call.


The UK had that right before Brexit.  AFAIK, Pakistan has never been a member of the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 25, 2016, 01:51:49 AM
To understand my point, look  beyond the UK governance (Tory, Labour, etc.) to the next layer, i. e. the EU.   

                                          EU = establishment. 

Now consider the degree to which UK governance knelt down to EU not only in respect but in submission.  From having done consulting work for the EU, the offices in Belgium in my opinion had much power, and their power was growing. 

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.

What we have now is a return towards free markets.  Greed is not good, but "Free markets" is good (over the long term).  We are now in the short term of major change, and to be precise, the beginning of change.  Long term?

What I found interesting is how narrow the vote went for such a huge black and white decision.  This is not a vote where the narrowly winning party will need to compromise closely with the narrowly losing party to make "gray" decisions.  "Out" is "out," there is no gray. 

Caveat:  I am an American, so what do I know about the EU! I look forward to the diverse opinions of people who live, sleep and work there.

But did they? 

From what I have read, contrary to the Brexit camp's assertions, EU legislation is not imposed by faceless bureaucrats.  The EU Commission makes recommendations, but those are debated and are legislated into existence by an EU parliament, whose members are elected directly by the citizens of member states.  Nigel Farage, for example, has been a member of the European Parliament since 1999.   That really is no different from how most parliamentary democracies operate.  In Canada, we call those unelected Ottawa bureaucrats "mandarins".  They are critical to the development of policy, but their recommendations can be, and often are ignored, usually for political considerations.

The Brexit vote came about because the Tory party has always been rather ambivalent about the EU, and Tory MP's demanded it.  David Cameron, from all I've read, was himself rather ambivalent about the EU, but perhaps recognized it is the result of trade offs and didn't wish to exit the EU.  But, he was facing an internal revolt on the issue.  That is why he suggested a vote.  IIRC (and I may not), the idea was first floated when the Tories were in a coalition with the Liberals.  PM Cameron promised an election on the issue to placate disgruntled members of his own party, and did so before the last general election.  He assumed he would again be ruling a coalition government, and at that time, such a promise would have been empty, as there is no way the Liberals would have supported a referendum.

David Cameron is the third Tory PM to have lost power because of the EU issue.

For a different POV -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/the-european-elite-forgot-that-democracy-is-the-one-thing-britai/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/the-european-elite-forgot-that-democracy-is-the-one-thing-britai/)


and the aftermath -


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/a-pyrrhic-victory-boris-johnson-wakes-up-to-the-costs-of-brexit (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/a-pyrrhic-victory-boris-johnson-wakes-up-to-the-costs-of-brexit)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 25, 2016, 02:32:46 AM
For Brass -


http://www.theloop.ca/in-the-wake-of-brexit-many-britons-are-now-considering-moving-to-canada/?symeid=OutbrainLoopArticle
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 25, 2016, 03:58:03 AM
Brexit - a second referendum



 600 k plus voters  are asking for a 2nd referendum and a pause to Brexit

Thought I'd use RT for a change

http://www.rt.com/uk/348228-petition-parliament-uk-brexit/ (http://www.rt.com/uk/348228-petition-parliament-uk-brexit/)

http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/ (http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/)

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.

Naturally, I am one of 600k - already - votes


lol  Basically, you didn't get your way and now you want to change the rules in order to get your way.   I wonder what would happen if the roles were reversed?  I have little doubt the words daft and clueless would be thrown around.  You seem to be channeling JayH in many of your responses.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 25, 2016, 05:37:44 AM
Not bad at all, but that's still over nine million people who didn't/couldn't vote.  Many of those were younger voters, a substantial majority of that group who did vote having elected to Remain in the EU.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1334238/low-turnout-in-key-remain-areas-london-and-scotland-hands-boost-to-leave-campaign/

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028

Maybe it was divine intervention?  :D

Those polls you were so quick to quote earlier were the ones that were stating it was a vote of the working classes against the elites. Perhaps those that saw the issue as worthy were the ones that voted? 70% is a big turnout
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 25, 2016, 05:43:13 AM
For Brass -


http://www.theloop.ca/in-the-wake-of-brexit-many-britons-are-now-considering-moving-to-canada/?symeid=OutbrainLoopArticle

LOL, Bo.

I suggest we add insult to injury and inform them sorry but as a result of EU  immigration policy we're currently filled to the brim with Syrians.  :P

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 25, 2016, 08:31:43 AM
Trump is really politiczing the brexit..claiming it is all Obama's fault....In some respects Trump is echoing some of the same things I've been grumbling about for years:
TRUMP:
"[Obama] is constantly dictating to the world what they should do. The world doesn't listen to him, obviously. You can see that from the vote. I actually think his recommendation…caused it to fail," Trump said on Friday, June 24, via the Daily Mail.

"I was actually very surprised that President Obama would've come over here and he would have been so bold as to tell the people over here what to do. And I think that a lot of people don't like him, and a lot of people voted — if he had not said it, I think the result might have been different," he continued. "I thought it was inappropriate."




If I was more sure that Trump wasn't going to be so divisive within our country, I'd actually consider voting for him.  He often says a lot of things that ring very true regarding the US attempting to dictate to other nations....although it is actually the Republicans that have been the most hawkish, with Obama trying to rein them in...so I think it is a bit ridiculous to try to pin our overly aggressive foreign policy all on Obama.






http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/donald-trump-blames-barack-obama-hillary-clinton-for-brexit-vote-w211181 (http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/donald-trump-blames-barack-obama-hillary-clinton-for-brexit-vote-w211181)


Fathertime!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 25, 2016, 08:37:42 AM
Brexit - a second referendum



 600 k plus voters  are asking for a 2nd referendum and a pause to Brexit

Thought I'd use RT for a change

http://www.rt.com/uk/348228-petition-parliament-uk-brexit/ (http://www.rt.com/uk/348228-petition-parliament-uk-brexit/)

http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/ (http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/)

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.

Naturally, I am one of 600k - already - votes


I occasionally browse RT myself, like any source it has to be looked at with suspicion, but it is interesting .  Insofar as trying to have a redo on the Brexit vote, I think that is the way to create reason for a genuine violent revolution...what is done, is done...For the people of the UK to vote for such a drastic change the sentiment among many must be pretty sour I imagine.


Fathertime!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 25, 2016, 09:03:10 AM
Trump is really politiczing the brexit..claiming it is all Obama's fault


I didn't need Trump to tell me Obama is at fault for Brexit. My feelings are that Obama's lack of commitment to ending the Syrian war while committing to it half heartedly has led to millions of refugees headed to Europe, endless war and bloodshed, increased terrorism and terrorist gains. Immigration was a big concern during the Brexit vote since EU citizens, including refugees after they get the right to live in the EU, are more freer to travel within EU member states. If just 2% of the Brexit voters voted on the other side of the fence, UK would still be in the EU. Obama's policies didn't influence all who voted for Brexit  but just enough to tip the scales to make a difference.

For the people of the UK to vote for such a drastic change the sentiment among many must be pretty sour I imagine.


It's hard for people to be happy when they lose. I didn't put on a temper tantrum when Obama won both his elections. Just got to accept more people want what I don't want.

Gator earlier mentioned this is a black or white decision with no grey area. On the surface it looks like that but there will be lots of grey area. UK and the EU will continue to do business with each other under new agreements. I read about the Greenland decision to leave the EU and afterwards there were negotiated agreements. EU needed rights to fish in Greenland's waters so they are paying Greenland for that right. The sky will not fall for the UK but the beginning of the end may have begun for the EU since citizens of the more prosperous nations are more likely to vote leave than stay too.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on June 25, 2016, 09:39:37 AM
A closely run result: 52% for Brexit, 48% for Remain.

Remain groups have intimated that they'll request another referendum in a couple of years' time.

Strong Remain-voting areas like Northern Ireland and Scotland are agitating for a first (N.Irish) and second (Scots) secession referendum.

It would be ironic if Brexit resulted in the United Kingdom eventually reverting to:

- Great Britain first, then
- Just England later

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/ae/Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg/1280px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png#ActualImage) --> (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/17/Union_flag_1606_(Kings_Colors).svg/2000px-Union_flag_1606_(Kings_Colors).svg.png#ActualImage) --> (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/b/be/Flag_of_England.svg/1280px-Flag_of_England.svg.png#ActualImage)
;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 25, 2016, 09:52:26 AM
I didn't need Trump to tell me Obama is at fault for Brexit. My feelings are that Obama's lack of commitment to ending the Syrian war while committing to it half heartedly has led to millions of refugees headed to Europe, endless war and bloodshed, increased terrorism and terrorist gains. Immigration was a big concern during the Brexit vote since EU citizens, including refugees after they get the right to live in the EU, are more freer to travel within EU member states. If just 2% of the Brexit voters voted on the other side of the fence, UK would still be in the EU. Obama's policies didn't influence all who voted for Brexit  but just enough to tip the scales to make a difference.

There's another more recent example, Billy. While in London Obama in effect threatened the UK population with punitive trade measures if they voted to leave. This created a huge backlash...

Barack Obama: Brexit would put UK 'back of the queue' for trade talks

..."Barack Obama has warned that the UK would be at the “back of the queue” in any trade deal with the US if the country chose to leave the EU, as he made an emotional plea to Britons to vote for staying in."...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/22/barack-obama-brexit-uk-back-of-queue-for-trade-talks

Brass

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 25, 2016, 11:04:01 AM
But did they? 

From what I have read, contrary to the Brexit camp's assertions, EU legislation is not imposed by faceless bureaucrats.  The EU Commission makes recommendations, but those are debated and are legislated into existence by an EU parliament, whose members are elected directly by the citizens of member states.  Nigel Farage, for example, has been a member of the European Parliament since 1999.   That really is no different from how most parliamentary democracies operate.  In Canada, we call those unelected Ottawa bureaucrats "mandarins".  They are critical to the development of policy, but their recommendations can be, and often are ignored, usually for political considerations.

One measure of the quality of olive oil is the amount of acidity in the oil.  The less acidity the better.

Spain, for their domestic and export markets, used to test and have on the label the acidity measurement.

When harmonizing with the EU, Italy (having more clout) forced Spain to drop this measurement. 

Now it is literally illegal to put a known, scientific fact on an olive oil label.

Let's have a look at the relevant EU reg:

"As defined by the European Commission regulation No. 2568/91 and subsequent amendments, the highest quality olive oil (Extra-Virgin olive oil) must feature a free acidity lower than 0.8%. Virgin olive oil is characterized by acidity between 0.8% and 2%, while lampante olive oil (a low quality oil that is not edible) features a free acidity higher than 2%."

Spanish olive oils were lower than Italian olive oils, having as little as 0.3% and 0.5% . 

Their competitive ability was nullified by EU edict at the behest of their competitors who sometimes shipped a lower quality product.

(I am sure that Sandro, having even more knowledge than me about this subject, can add to it.)

Again, reality of EU's behavior trumps legality...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 25, 2016, 11:46:49 AM
One measure of the quality of olive oil is the amount of acidity in the oil.  The less acidity the better.

Spain, for their domestic and export markets, used to test and have on the label the acidity measurement.

When harmonizing with the EU, Italy (having more clout) forced Spain to drop this measurement. 

Now it is literally illegal to put a known, scientific fact on an olive oil label.


The fight over olive oil isn't the only reason people are upset. Remember the time they tried to hack up the English language?  This didn't go over well with the citizens of the UK. It didn't go over well with spell check either. :P

http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/1606

The European Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the European Union rather than German, which was the other possibility.

As part of the negotiations, the British Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a 5-year phase-in plan that would become known as “Euro-English.”

In the first year, “s” will replace the soft “c.” Sertainly, this will make the sivil servants jump with joy.

The hard “c” will be dropped in favour of “k.” This should klear up konfusion, and keyboards kan have one less letter.

There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year when the troublesome “ph” will be replaced with “f.” This will make words like fotograf 20% shorter.

In the 3rd year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible.

Governments will enkourage the removal of double letters which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling.

Also, al wil agre that the horibl mes of the silent “e” in the languag is disgrasful and it should go away.

By the 4th yer people wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing “th” with “z” and “w” with “v.”

During ze fifz yer, ze unesesary “o” kan be dropd from vords kontaining “ou” and after ziz fifz yer, ve vil hav a reil sensibl riten styl.

Zer vil be no mor trubl or difikultis & evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech oza. Ze drem of a united urop vil finali kum tru.

Und efter ze fifz yer, ve vil al be speking German like zey vunted in ze forst plas.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 25, 2016, 12:01:03 PM
The US will lose a lot of influence with EU.  Uk was always a staunch supporter of US policies and probably helped to tip the political balance in favor of US operations

Who is Germany's largest trading partner?
Who is the Uk's largest trading partner?
Who is Francy pant's third largest trading partner? 
Who is Italy's third largest trading partner?
Who isn't going to be thrown under any buses?
Hint the answer to all 5 questions is the same.

However, it would be nice for the US and EU to be close but whatever will be will be.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on June 25, 2016, 02:12:27 PM
(I am sure that Sandro, having even more knowledge than me about this subject, can add to it.)
I'm not an authority on olive oil, but what I vaguely remember is that "Extra Virgin" must be cold-pressed once only and not subjected to any chemical treatment - "pomace" (the residue from a 1st press) still contains some oil.

Therefore, IIRC acidity is only one of several regulatory parameters and, as I was formerly schooled in chemistry, I know it's VERY easy to lower acidity values with suitable treatments ;) - say, with a dash of NaOH (Sodium Hydroxide) or similar basic agents.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Изумруд on June 25, 2016, 02:18:23 PM
A closely run result: 52% for Brexit, 48% for Remain.

Remain groups have intimated that they'll request another referendum in a couple of years' time.

Strong Remain-voting areas like Northern Ireland and Scotland are agitating for a first (N.Irish) and second (Scots) secession referendum.

NI is not agitating for secession: voting Remain was one thing but leaving the Union is a totally different ball game; the loyalists still hold the majority in Ulster and they would never vote for a United Ireland.  In fact, being British is more important to them than most it is to many English people.  I actually worry that a very fragile peace has been created by this Brexit result, especially with the 12th coming up.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on June 25, 2016, 02:55:01 PM
especially with the 12th coming up.
Which is?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 25, 2016, 06:41:40 PM
Which is?

I thought you would know that part of history, Sandro.  :)  It's also known as Orangeman's Day - the anniversary of the Battle of the Boyne (1690), where William of Orange's Protestant army defeated the Irish Catholics under King James II of England.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 25, 2016, 06:55:45 PM
Those polls you were so quick to quote earlier were the ones that were stating it was a vote of the working classes against the elites.

For crying out loud!  All I did was post a link to the polls - I didn't offer any opinion one way or the other, and I still haven't.

Maybe it was divine intervention?  :D

Perhaps those that saw the issue as worthy were the ones that voted? 70% is a big turnout.

I don't know about your part of the world FP, but 70% turnout for a national referendum or election is low by our standards - we usually get 80-85% for national ones, although our local body elections have a much lower rate.  Again, though, it doesn't just come down to motivation - if you're physically unable to get to a polling place because of flooding, or the polling place you chose has had to be closed, it does make it rather more difficult to vote, especially when there is no on-line option.

Part of that, too, is the "village mentality" that is quite pervasive in parts of the UK - many people feel very uncomfortable if they have to travel more than a few miles away from home, so finding another polling place if their first choice was closed may not have been an option for some of those who didn't vote.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 25, 2016, 07:04:22 PM
Trump is really politiczing the brexit..claiming it is all Obama's fault...

I didn't need Trump to tell me Obama is at fault for Brexit. ...Obama's policies didn't influence all who voted for Brexit  but just enough to tip the scales to make a difference.

...While in London Obama in effect threatened the UK population with punitive trade measures if they voted to leave. This created a huge backlash...

Do you all have such little faith in the intelligence of the British population to make up their own minds?  Billy, you seriously need to get over yourself.  How can you possibly make such an assertion when you haven't the slightest proof of any such influence on any individual's decision?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 25, 2016, 07:49:18 PM
Billy, you seriously need to get over yourself.  How can you possibly make such an assertion when you haven't the slightest proof of any such influence on any individual's decision?


Immigration is pretty much in most articles about one of the major concerns of citizens in the UK. What have you been reading?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 25, 2016, 08:10:23 PM
Immigration is pretty much in most articles about one of the major concerns of citizens in the UK. What have you been reading?

What has that got to do with what you wrote?

I didn't need Trump to tell me Obama is at fault for Brexit...Obama's policies didn't influence all who voted for Brexit  but just enough to tip the scales to make a difference.

Scaremongering about immigration has been a staple of the British tabloids for years.  You're deluding yourself if you think that a politician from another country had the slightest influence over how people chose to vote.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 25, 2016, 08:19:24 PM
Scaremongering about immigration has been a staple of the British tabloids for years.  You're deluding yourself if you think that a politician from another country had the slightest influence over how people chose to vote.

There wouldn't be any scaremongering about immigration if scary immigration didn't exist. Whether or not you think a million Syrians coming to Europe is harmless, there are many people with real fears allowing them in is the wrong move for Europe to make. I've watched European news, not tabloids, for 3 straight weeks a few months ago when I was in Ukraine. Syrian immigrants coming over without background checks and the latest wave of terrorist acts will influence many more Europeans to vote to leave the EU not to mention many believe Syrians won't help the economy in the near or distant future. If you like the Syrians so much, petition your government to take them all in.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 25, 2016, 08:25:42 PM
Do you all have such little faith in the intelligence of the British population to make up their own minds?  Billy, you seriously need to get over yourself.  How can you possibly make such an assertion when you haven't the slightest proof of any such influence on any individual's decision?

The premise of your question is incorrect.

It's got nothing to do with questioning the intelligence of the British population and everything to do with a foreign head of state making inappropriate comments in support of his own flawed foreign policy agenda trying to influence a vote that should be solely decided by the citizens of an allied sovereign nation.

It's fear mongering at best. At worst it's a threat of punitive trade measures which borders on unilateral trade sanction...

 “They are voicing an opinion about what the United States is going to do, I figured you might want to hear from the president of the United States what I think the United States is going to do.

“And on that matter, for example, I think it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done”.

He added: “The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.”

Indeed? So I guess the UK, which is touted as the US closest and most powerful ally, gets the bum's rush if they don't cow tow to Obama's, who incidentally won't even be around to make that kind of policy decision in 7 months, wishes?

Good to know where you stand with your partner nations though, I suppose...
Jeez, I hope Canada doesn't make any sovereign decisions that piss this guy off over the next 7 months or maybe he'll be making speeches about shunting us off to the back of the line as well.  :rolleyes:

Brass


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 25, 2016, 08:44:34 PM
There wouldn't be any scaremongering about immigration if scary immigration didn't exist. Whether or not you think a million Syrians coming to Europe is harmless, there are many people with real fears allowing them in is the wrong move for Europe to make. I've watched European news, not tabloids, for 3 straight weeks a few months ago when I was in Ukraine. Syrian immigrants coming over without background checks and the latest wave of terrorist acts will influence many more Europeans to vote to leave the EU not to mention many believe Syrians won't help the economy in the near or distant future. If you like the Syrians so much, petition your government to take them all in.

Billy, you STILL haven't responded to my question.  How do you come to the conclusion that Obama influenced the vote one way or the other?  Syrians coming to Europe, and you watching European news, has absolutely nothing to do with what you wrote!  :cluebat:

As for New Zealand taking in all the Syrian refugees, don't be so bloody ridiculous.  Where would we put them all?  Unlike you, we don't have hundreds of thousands of square kilometres spare to build umpteen refugee camps, let alone new cities.  Instantly boosting our population by over 20% would cause immense infrastructural problems.  I DO believe that we should take more than we do, but that's a side issue.

You might just as well send them all to Chicago, and see if that city could cope with that much of an influx.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 25, 2016, 08:51:47 PM
The premise of your question is incorrect.

It's got nothing to do with questioning the intelligence of the British population and everything to do with a foreign head of state making inappropriate comments in support of his own flawed foreign policy agenda trying to influence a vote that should be solely decided by the citizens of an allied sovereign nation.

It's fear mongering at best. At worst it's a threat of punitive trade measures which borders on unilateral trade sanction...

No, Brass, what I posted is NOT incorrect.  I totally agree with what you wrote about the inappropriateness of President Obama's comments.  However, that is not what Billy wrote.  His totally unfounded assertion was that those comments influenced the way that people voted in the referendum.  You cannot possibly make any such claim unless you ask every single person why they voted the way they did - and that will obviously never happen.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 25, 2016, 09:05:14 PM
The premise of your question is incorrect.

It's got nothing to do with questioning the intelligence of the British population and everything to do with a foreign head of state making inappropriate comments in support of his own flawed foreign policy agenda trying to influence a vote that should be solely decided by the citizens of an allied sovereign nation.

It's fear mongering at best. At worst it's a threat of punitive trade measures which borders on unilateral trade sanction...

 “


I'd have to read the entire set of comments by Obama, but really he shouldn't have tried to wield his influence...like that...I can see why his comments would piss off a citizen of the UK.  Nobody wants a foreign leader telling the citizenry what to do, especially if they don't feel it is in their own best interests...I could see some votes being swayed for that reason alone. 



Well at least we didn't start threatening to bomb the UK....we don't give other nations that same break though! 


Fathertime!



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 25, 2016, 09:37:09 PM
No, Brass, what I posted is NOT incorrect. I totally agree with what you wrote about the inappropriateness of President Obama's comments.  However, that is not what Billy wrote.  His totally unfounded assertion was that those comments influenced the way that people voted in the referendum.  You cannot possibly make any such claim unless you ask every single person why they voted the way they did - and that will obviously never happen.

Oh, OK. You just quoted my comment to your post before asking your questions for ambience then. I get it... ;D

And yes Billy's assertion is founded. It is a fact that after Obama made his speech/visit in Apr the polls showed a marked jump in favor of Brexit.

This little gem has been totally ignored by the North American media and I gather the NZ media but the UK media did report on it...

What Obama effect? Polls find British voters are REJECTING the US President's plea to stay in the EU as the Brexit camp moves into the lead in major blow for Cameron

..."Barack Obama failed to persuade British voters to stay in the EU with his controversial intervention last week, a poll revealed today.

The US President flew into the UK for a four-day visit last week and warned that Britain would be at the 'back of the queue' in any trade deal with the US after a Brexit vote.

David Cameron hoped the intervention would be decisive in the EU debate but a YouGov poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday found that the Brexit campaign has jumped three points since the last poll two weeks ago.

It backs up other polls that suggested voters are rejecting Mr Obama's strongly-worded warning of the consequences of Brexit."...


Read more:www.dailymail.co.uk (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3563341/What-Obama-effect-poll-President-s-dramatic-intervention-visit-shows-Brexit-camp-moved-lead-EU-referendum-campaign.html#ixzz4CeUytGzl)

So yeah Obama's 'warnings' did have an effect.

My guess is in the coming weeks and months we're going to hear a lot more about this "intervention" as more info becomes available and correlated as to what influenced the vote.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 25, 2016, 09:49:45 PM

I'd have to read the entire set of comments by Obama, but really he shouldn't have tried to wield his influence...like that...I can see why his comments would piss off a citizen of the UK.  Nobody wants a foreign leader telling the citizenry what to do, especially if they don't feel it is in their own best interests...I could see some votes being swayed for that reason alone. 



Well at least we didn't start threatening to bomb the UK....we don't give other nations that same break though!

Just had to sneak a quick snapper in there when you thought no one was looking, didn't you. >:( ;D

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 25, 2016, 10:00:00 PM
Billy, you STILL haven't responded to my question.  How do you come to the conclusion that Obama influenced the vote one way or the other?  Syrians coming to Europe, and you watching European news, has absolutely nothing to do with what you wrote!  :cluebat:


I answered your question before you even asked it. Read my prior posts. The EU requires UK to have open borders between member states. It doesn't matter if UK is taking few Syrian refugees now. When those refugees become legal to live in the EU, they will be coming. A lot of people who voted for Brexit wants the UK to have control over their own borders. Obama's policies in Syria dragged the war on since he didn't stay out of it and isn't committed to winning so that resulted in a war that has no ending in sight and 12 million people fleeing the country.

Where would we put them all?

 

In the past you said those refugees will be productive and help the EU's economy. If you really believe that fantasy, you should take them all. Build them houses and they'll build NZ into an economic powerhouse.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 25, 2016, 10:16:27 PM

I'd have to read the entire set of comments by Obama, but really he shouldn't have tried to wield his influence...like that...I can see why his comments would piss off a citizen of the UK.  Nobody wants a foreign leader telling the citizenry what to do, especially if they don't feel it is in their own best interests...I could see some votes being swayed for that reason alone. 



Well at least we didn't start threatening to bomb the UK....we don't give other nations that same break though! 


Fathertime!


Here are his comments, starting at about 13:30 -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GorTXg9-Te8


And here is an op-ed piece Obama penned -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/)




Personally, I don't find either sticking his nose in the election, nor out of line. 





Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 25, 2016, 10:48:34 PM
Just had to sneak a quick snapper in there when you thought no one was looking, didn't you. >:( ;D

Brass




hehe, I knew the comment wouldn't slip past you.   ;D


Fathertime!   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 25, 2016, 11:45:32 PM

I occasionally browse RT myself, like any source it has to be looked at with suspicion, but it is interesting .



Mr Dear FT, are you suggesting the site ...http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215 (http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215) is 'suspicious'  ?  :D

The BBC have covered the story and it appears the petition was started on 24 May and had only 22 votes until the suicidal vote result

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629324 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629324)



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 26, 2016, 02:02:57 AM
Mr Dear FT, are you suggesting the site ...http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215 (http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215) is 'suspicious'  ?  :D

The BBC have covered the story and it appears the petition was started on 24 May and had only 22 votes until the suicidal vote result

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629324 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629324)
1. Thanks for addressing me so politely.   :)
2.  No the petition isn't suspicious. 
3.  How do you think action on the petition will be justified now that the vote is done? 


Fathertime!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 26, 2016, 02:29:17 AM
How do you think action on the petition will be justified now that the vote is done? 




It has to be debated...  let's see
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 26, 2016, 10:10:04 AM
Gator,

from another ignorant Yank  :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-outs_in_the_European_Union

best I could find.

Cheers!

Thanks.  Good information.  It shows UK has more opt outs than any other EU member. 

Based on the need for negotiation between UK and EU,  the EU membership agreement does not contain a secession clause, at least one that specifies conditions and penalties for secession. 

As we know in the US when some of the member states seceded we experienced a bloody civil war with blockades, etc.   While armed conflict is preposterous,  financial bloodshed is possible.  Nevertheless, it behooves everyone to work together. 

Is it possible that the EU will eventually be reduced to an economic arrangement, i. e. the original Common Market, with fewer centralized governance functions?  In that case, the UK may decide to remain.   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on June 26, 2016, 10:24:38 AM
Breaking news:

1. A petition for a new Brexit referendum already signed by 3 million Brits.
2. PM Sturgeon states that Scotland may veto Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 26, 2016, 10:54:29 AM

The Brexit vote came about because the Tory party has always been rather ambivalent about the EU, and Tory MP's demanded it....
David Cameron is the third Tory PM to have lost power because of the EU issue.


Given this, I wonder why Cameron did not first try to negotiate something with the EU, something that would have appeased the masses of voters demanding change. 

There are always people who feel disenfranchised by the establishment.  If the number of such people remains small, the status quo continues.  When the number becomes large, some change occurs.  And if no changes are made, blowhards and rascals such as Trump gain support. 

BTW, is the term Tory considered polite in the UK?  The term Tory had a different meaning in the US and was a point of hostility. 


Quote
For a different POV ....and the aftermath....


Thanks.  Good reads.  Very complicated.  Much to be worked out.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 26, 2016, 11:01:14 AM
Breaking news:

1. A petition for a new Brexit referendum already signed by 3 million Brits.
2. PM Sturgeon states that Scotland may veto Brexit.

I suspect that petition for a new Brexit referendum will top out at around 16,141,241 signatures. ;D

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 26, 2016, 11:04:04 AM

Personally, I don't find either sticking his nose in the election, nor out of line.

Cameron probably asked Obama to say something during his visit.  Nevertheless, his "back of the queue"comment was disingenuous.   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 11:48:48 AM
Given this, I wonder why Cameron did not first try to negotiate something with the EU, something that would have appeased the masses of voters demanding change. 

He did attempt that. It was largely about access to benefits. He was shot down by the EU.
Quote
There are always people who feel disenfranchised by the establishment.  If the number of such people remains small, the status quo continues.  When the number becomes large, some change occurs.  And if no changes are made, blowhards and rascals such as Trump gain support. 

I agree. However, the closeness of the vote suggests half the population does not feel disenfranchised.

Quote
BTW, is the term Tory considered polite in the UK?  The term Tory had a different meaning in the US and was a point of hostility. 

It is used commonly both there and in Canada.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 12:04:12 PM
Breaking news:
 PM Sturgeon states that Scotland may veto Brexit.

That is an interesting twist.

I assume the referendum results must be ratified by Parliament. Given the Tories were divided on Brexit, and a majority of the other party members supported remain, if such a vote is required, it may not pass.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Steamer on June 26, 2016, 12:33:17 PM
Cameron probably asked Obama to say something during his visit.  Nevertheless, his "back of the queue"comment was disingenuous.





Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 26, 2016, 12:34:27 PM


It ["Tory"] is used commonly both there and in Canada.

Here, patriots  tarred and feathered Tories, and many Tories eventually left the US. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 12:44:04 PM
Here, patriots  tarred and feathered Tories, and many Tories eventually left the US.


Yes, many moved to Canada.   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 26, 2016, 12:47:47 PM
That is an interesting twist.

I assume the referendum results must be ratified by Parliament. Given the Tories were divided on Brexit, and a majority of the other party members supported remain, if such a vote is required, it may not pass.

It may be interesting but not viable. The First Minister is herself under pressure to resign and her party only holds 63 of the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament.

She must tread lightly and with sure footing. Any set back in any proposal she may back/put forward must be successful or her government will fall.

Hollyrood does not have the Constitutional authority to veto. They can however withhold Legislative Consent.

It would again boil down to an Independence Referendum based on the premise Independence and EU or UK and Exit.

I believe that the Scots (half my extended family reside there), given a choice between remaining in the EU and remaining in the UK will more than likely choose to remain in the UK. However, I think they are heading towards a second referendum and it will be close.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 12:50:06 PM
Cameron probably asked Obama to say something during his visit. 


I think so too.



Quote
Nevertheless, his "back of the queue"comment was disingenuous.


I took that as they are already negotiating with other countries, and such negotiations tend to be drawn out affairs.  Trade treaties are not drafted and ratified by legislative bodies overnight.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 26, 2016, 12:57:38 PM
These kits are going fast!!

(http://tabloidx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Your_Ultimate_Guide_How_to_Survive_a_Zombie_Apocalypse1.jpg)

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 26, 2016, 01:01:55 PM
I took that as they are already negotiating with other countries, and such negotiations tend to be drawn out affairs.  Trade treaties are not drafted and ratified by legislative bodies overnight.

It was a dumb thing to say and now he and Hillary will get beat up with it.

None that that matters much. Obama is done making trade deals and he won't
be president when the Brexit happens and hopefully things aren't nearly as bad
as the naysayers say.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 01:08:47 PM
It was not dumb to point out reality.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 01:19:14 PM
This is from The Guardian, right after Obama spoke -
Quote
At a stroke, he had crushed not only a core part of the leavers’ economic argument – that it’ll be a breeze for Britain to exit the EU and trade just as prosperously as a solo nation – but something bigger: the notion that a brighter, non-European future beckons. Obama burst that bubble.

It seems to me, in the aftermath of what has been occurring, that Obama's warning was accurate.  The consequences are already occurring, not even a week after the vote.  Some MP's who backed Brexit have already stated immigration from the EU will not be affected.  Nigel Farage famously stated the UK gives 350 million pounds to the EU weekly, and that money would be used to fund the NHS after a Brexit vote.  He has distanced himself from that statement, partly, I assume, because that number was based partly on trade numbers rather than cash outlays, and partly because even cash outlays from the UK make their way back into the UK.  See Cornwall's predicament, as an example -

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 01:27:01 PM
Here's another article on the broken promises of the Brexit campaigners -


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-lave-campaign-broken-promises-mounting-live-updates-polls-7103076.html
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:03:07 PM
WOW,,
I am surprised...


The UK has voted itself into some major problems...

Now Irish and Scottish national parties will try even harder to break away so they can rejoin the EU....


I also wounder if this will cause the EU to move to the left,, politically..


Also,, I guess this makes the UK an official American colony.. Once they split with the EU...


Quite the contrary. The Brexit has been the starting gun for Europe to move far to the right. Just look at all the Fascist ultra-right parties rejoicing and licking their chops.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:07:10 PM
My guess is that the central banks will look to punish GB for a while. Maybe even enough to draw them into war. They don't like it one bit. How much and to what degree remains to be seen. They likely won't punish for long as GB is the 5th largest economy


FP, I really don't understand nor grasp your statement. Why on Earth would banks want to punish GB? I'm betting that right now the financial markets are scrambling to maintain some sort of fiscal stability because what's coming up is a major roller-coaster ride. There are no winners here, from a financial point of view.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 26, 2016, 02:11:09 PM
This is from The Guardian, right after Obama spoke -
It seems to me, in the aftermath of what has been occurring, that Obama's warning was accurate.  The consequences are already occurring, not even a week after the vote. Some MP's who backed Brexit have already stated immigration from the EU will not be affected.  Nigel Farage famously stated the UK gives 350 million pounds to the EU weekly, and that money would be used to fund the NHS after a Brexit vote.  He has distanced himself from that statement, partly, I assume, because that number was based partly on trade numbers rather than cash outlays, and partly because even cash outlays from the UK make their way back into the UK.  See Cornwall's predicament, as an example -

Well, not quite. What these MPs are referring to is the French border treaties (Le Touquet Accord)  that are holding the migrants on the French side of the channel.

The French are reporting the same thing...

French border deal won't be affected by Brexit, says Paris

..."French government says British exit from European Union will not lead to changes in treaties concerning refugees and migrants"...

..."The French deal with Britain that keeps border checks, and thousands of refugees and migrants, on the French side of the Channel will remain in place and won’t be affected by the Brexit vote, the Paris government has said."...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/25/french-border-deal-wont-be-affected-by-brexit-paris

It's been 48 hours since the referendum. Their PM has stood down and it's gonna take a little time for the UK to get their own EU/UK team together, negotiations formulated and on the table.

No one except those in the Remain camp it seems is expecting an instantaneous *Poof* we have new immigration laws. Give them the weekend at least. ;)

Obama's warnings were and are not accurate in that ...

1. We have no idea whether it's going to be easy or hard for the UK to exit because no negotiations have started yet including dropping the Article 50 writ.

However, it'll be the EU that determines whether this is a hard road or easy road. The frumpy frau is trying to bring the squawking EU ministers in line but based on the remarks of some of those ministers I think they're going try and make it as difficult as possible for the UK to make a fair exit deal; and

2. We have no idea whether or not a brighter non European Union future beckons but what we do know is that the majority of the people in the UK believe that a brighter non European Union future is possible and have voted accordingly.

So, imo, Obama hasn't burst any bubbles because his dire warnings, other than being perceived as inappropriate and/or threatening were, when they were uttered and are today, irrelevant.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:12:48 PM
To understand my point, look  beyond the UK governance (Tory, Labour, etc.) to the next layer, i. e. the EU.   

                                          EU = establishment. 

Now consider the degree to which UK governance knelt down to EU not only in respect but in submission.  From having done consulting work for the EU, the offices in Belgium in my opinion had much power, and their power was growing. 

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.

What we have now is a return towards free markets. Greed is not good, but "Free markets" is good (over the long term).  We are now in the short term of major change, and to be precise, the beginning of change.  Long term?

What I found interesting is how narrow the vote went for such a huge black and white decision.  This is not a vote where the narrowly winning party will need to compromise closely with the narrowly losing party to make "gray" decisions.  "Out" is "out," there is no gray. 

Caveat:  I am an American, so what do I know about the EU! I look forward to the diverse opinions of people who live, sleep and work there.


Now, explain this to me because what I see is a move towards protectionism and import barriers. If you mean free markets between two cafes down the street, then you have a point.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 02:13:15 PM
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=20940.msg434839#msg434839

I think it's broader than that, Brass.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:15:35 PM
Based on the rumblings from several other EU countries this a.m. there may not be an EU to negotiate an exit with in two years....

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums)

Besides, the frumpy frau is already calling for everyone to make nice...

“Firstly, the future of the EU depends on how well we prove ourselves to be willing and capable of making the right decisions and not estranging the UK.”

http://www.thelocal.de/20160624/merkel-brexit-has-cut-into-european-unity-eu (http://www.thelocal.de/20160624/merkel-brexit-has-cut-into-european-unity-eu)

Brass


This is what I meant by EUR moving to the far right. Nationalism is on the rise and you know what happened when European countries started that bullshit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:18:39 PM
I believe we in the US have less to worry about than the Europeans.

If we can not stem the growth of government and entitlements, we can always print money, more money than EU nations.   And while some may contend this inflates our currency, making it worthless, the US can always park an aircraft carrier or two offshore of a another nation's capital and demand "Cash our check!"


Wow, how illuminating.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:22:25 PM
They are more sheep-like, after being indoctrinated for more years than the others?


You are so funny. I can't stop laughing.


The useful idiot repeating what a demagouge states, because the useful idiot does not have the proper background to discern bullshit from reality, is NOT indoctrinated and is the master of his own domain.


You should be doing stand up comedy.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:24:52 PM
I disagree.  Obama is still the "dumber."


Correction: Obama is still darker of skin.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 26, 2016, 02:26:48 PM
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=20940.msg434839#msg434839

I think it's broader than that, Brass.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html)

This will have to be monitored and controlled by the authorities. Criminal activity is a by product of major events, always has been. I'm sure the media will be reporting on every single incident, Brexit related or otherwise, for the next little while. It's good press.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:28:30 PM
Questions from an Ignorant Yank

I may be wrong but its seems the  UK has never fully embraced the concept of the EU.

Please help.


With pleasure.


No country in Europe embraced the concept of the EU. NONE.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:37:09 PM


In the meantime 300 plus billion was wiped off the value of shares, on day one of us being better off ...

Yup, 'real' smart move by 'intelligent' people who 'won back control' ..


My good friend invited me to lunch because it was my birthday on the 24th. He didn't look too happy. He lost $60K that day.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:43:18 PM

lol  Basically, you didn't get your way and now you want to change the rules in order to get your way.   I wonder what would happen if the roles were reversed?  I have little doubt the words daft and clueless would be thrown around.  You seem to be channeling JayH in many of your responses.


I was listening o some radio reports and many of the interviewed were say basically the same: they didn't expect Brexit to win, all they wanted was to send a message to the "establishment."


Very well "educated" guess, ain't it?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 02:55:09 PM

I'd have to read the entire set of comments by Obama, but really he shouldn't have tried to wield his influence...like that...I can see why his comments would piss off a citizen of the UK.  Nobody wants a foreign leader telling the citizenry what to do, especially if they don't feel it is in their own best interests...I could see some votes being swayed for that reason alone. 



Well at least we didn't start threatening to bomb the UK....we don't give other nations that same break though! 


Fathertime!


FT, everytime I read statement like this from you I wonder what is your opinion the POTUS is to do? The leader of the strongest army in the world. What should he do?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 26, 2016, 02:57:59 PM

Correction: Obama is still darker of skin.

Consider the context.  My response came  in response to some cynical humor.  Consider the context. 

However, your blind spot prevents you from recognizing such.    You have no logical comeback, so you yell "racist."  Typical silencing tactic of the left.   

You are just like the one Democrat Congressmen during their sit-in stunt (singing "We shall overcome" is an insult to the courage and importance of the civil rights protestors of the 1960s).   Anyway, after a Republican stated  "Islamic terrorism kills," the Democrat replied to him, "You are a racist."  WTF!

Saying racist a thousand times does not make it the truth.  It does imprint you with feelings that you are correct and that other people are beneath you.  It ends dialogue.   

Muzh, I do not want to think of you in low regard; however, if you keep using this silencing tactric what should I think?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 26, 2016, 03:03:17 PM

This is what I meant by EUR moving to the far right. Nationalism is on the rise and you know what happened when European countries started that bullshit.

Rejecting the EU or by extension globalism is not "moving to the far right", old friend. :)

The EU by it's inaction in critical affairs, it's bloated bureaucracy and it's incompetent handling of the migrant issue have created this mess. What the people of the UK have decided is they don't want to be a part of that mess anymore. Good on them.

If other EU countries decide they've had enough of it as well and follow the UK's lead then so be it.

It could be this idea of the global economy/globalism has reached it's high water mark and the pendulum is starting to swing back towards the middle.

Imo this isn't something to be feared but celebrated. The EU is a failed experiment. Time to throw it on the scrap heap where it belongs (I posted as much last year). 

Brass   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 03:17:27 PM
Consider the context.  My response came  in response to some cynical humor.  Consider the context. 

However, your blind spot prevents you from recognizing such.    You have no logical comeback, so you yell "racist."  Typical silencing tactic of the left.   

You are just like the one Democrat Congressmen during their sit-in stunt (singing "We shall overcome" is an insult to the courage and importance of the civil rights protestors of the 1960s).   Anyway, after a Republican stated  "Islamic terrorism kills," the Democrat replied to him, "You are a racist."  WTF!

Saying racist a thousand times does not make it the truth.  It does imprint you with feelings that you are correct and that other people are beneath you.  It ends dialogue.   

Muzh, I do not want to think of you in low regard; however, if you keep using this silencing tactric what should I think?


Heh, I have been considering the context for the last 7 or so years. I haven't read so much rancor towards one POTUS including Dubya. And man, was he a nitwit. But he was treated with the respect that office deserves. That is, until the Nigr got there.


You know, I admit openly that I'm a liberal. I have a lot more respect for people who are honest, including the racist bigots who openly admit to it. The silencing tactic is the one that dismiss bigotry because the acuser is a liberal.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 26, 2016, 03:19:42 PM

I was listening o some radio reports and many of the interviewed were say basically the same: they didn't expect Brexit to win, all they wanted was to send a message to the "establishment."


Very well "educated" guess, ain't it?


I have been seeing the same thing.  I don't know how widespread, but many are saying they wished they voted for staying.  lol
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 03:22:33 PM
Rejecting the EU or by extension globalism is not "moving to the far right", old friend. :)

The EU by it's inaction in critical affairs, it's bloated bureaucracy and it's incompetent handling of the migrant issue have created this mess. What the people of the UK have decided is they don't want to be a part of that mess anymore. Good on them.

If other EU countries decide they've had enough of it as well and follow the UK's lead then so be it.

It could be this idea of the global economy/globalism has reached it's high water mark and the pendulum is starting to swing back towards the middle.

Imo this isn't something to be feared but celebrated. The EU is a failed experiment. Time to throw it on the scrap heap where it belongs (I posted as much last year). 

Brass   


Brass, I agree with you that the EU, as it exists right now is a failed experiment. The concept of a united Europe is still a lofty goal. Also it is a wolrd security goal. You cannot let these people start a path towards nationalism. It has been a bad idea for many centuries.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 26, 2016, 03:22:46 PM

Heh, I have been considering the context for the last 7 or so years. I haven't read so much rancor towards one POTUS including Dubya. And man, was he a nitwit. But he was treated with the respect that office deserves. That is, until the Nigr got there.


You know, I admit openly that I'm a liberal. I have a lot more respect for people who are honest, including the racist bigots who openly admit to it. The silencing tactic is the one that dismiss bigotry because the acuser is a liberal.

You seem unwilling to admit that some see  Obama as a commie rat gay Muslim who is ineligible to be President in the first place. 

No use of "nigr" needed as there is plenty to detest about him no matter his skin color.

Clarence Thomas and Alan Keyes are darker than Obama, yet the right wingers you claim are rayciss like both of them.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 03:23:13 PM

I have been seeing the same thing.  I don't know how widespread, but many are saying they wished they voted for staying.  lol


Worst case of buyer's remorse I've seen.  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 26, 2016, 03:24:03 PM
You seem unwilling to admit thatsome see  Obama as a commie rat gay Muslim who is ineligible to be President in the first place. 

No use of "nigr" needed as there is plenty to detest about him no matter his skin color.

Clarence Thomas and Alan Keyes are darker than Obama, yet the right wingers you claim are rayciss like both of them.


Oh mercy look whoi's talking.


Sieg Heil
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 26, 2016, 03:40:41 PM

Worst case of buyer's remorse I've seen.  ;)

I can't help but wonder how many people are just out of camera frame lining up to declare they'd like to change their vote for the Leave side though. :D

If the media can line up a million and half more people (including the people who've changed their mind for Exit since the vote) wishing they'd voted the other way other than the one or two that keep getting replayed through the news cycles there may be an argument.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 26, 2016, 03:58:53 PM

Brass, I agree with you that the EU, as it exists right now is a failed experiment. The concept of a united Europe is still a lofty goal. Also it is a wolrd security goal. You cannot let these people start a path towards nationalism. It has been a bad idea for many centuries.

Let's not forget that the United Kingdom is in itself a union of individual states with various degrees of autonomy. We see that in two of these state regions were pro EU and the fallout as a result.

It could be argued "Nationalism" as you and I might define it is the least of the UK's worries right now. :P

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 26, 2016, 04:52:23 PM

Heh, I have been considering the context for the last 7 or so years. I haven't read so much rancor towards one POTUS including Dubya. And man, was he a nitwit. But he was treated with the respect that office deserves. That is, until the Nigr got there.


Unlike Bush, Obama is intelligent.   Both Bush and Obama made big mistakes, yet each time the liberal leaning media has given Obama a pass.    So what is the difference to explain the supposed rancor? 
 

In comparison with Bush, Obama is arrogant, undemocratic to the point of excluding half of America, secretive, and dishonest.  He may be hypocritical and I could nominate others.  Enough!   These faults are not why I dislike Obama.  I dislike him because he further divided the country, mostly by not being the leader who would step in and fix the festering partisan problem.   Leadership starts at the top.  He could have succeeded.  Obama missed the opportunity of a lifetime.  Race had nothing to do with Obama failing to be the man we needed. 

In 2009 I merely questioned Obama.  Today, I really dislike the man, more than I should because in a way I agree with some of his policies. 

Even with all of Obama's faults and mistakes, his approval ratings have climbed here in his final year although the economy  that never fully recovered is now on the edge of teetering.  Why did his ratings climb?  He looks good when compared  with his two potential successors.  God help America.

Quote
The silencing tactic is the one that dismiss bigotry because the acuser is a liberal.

Because I am near speechless, the effectiveness of this silencing tactic is demonstrated.  Between being distracted by your absurdity and my watching a ball game, I missed bidding on something my wife wanted at a local auction.  I did buy her some nice  .....

Finding this give and take more frustrating than it is worth,  I am silenced.  Better that than saying what I really think. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 26, 2016, 06:44:49 PM
Even with all of Obama's faults and mistakes, his approval ratings have climbed here in his final year although the economy  that never fully recovered is now on the edge of teetering.  Why did his ratings climb?  He looks good when compared  with his two potential successors.  God help America.

You said it!

P.S.  Our refugee quota is quite capable of absorbing the odd citizen of the USA, if you'd like to try living in a really peaceful country.  8)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 26, 2016, 07:14:04 PM
The EU requires UK to have open borders between member states.

Citizens travelling (or moving countries) within the EU still have to produce the appropriate documentation to show that they are legally allowed to do so.  That applies everywhere they go, including the UK.  Those who aren't already citizens, such as the Syrian refugees, still have to have some form of acceptable ID.

It doesn't matter if UK is taking few Syrian refugees now. When those refugees become legal to live in the EU, they will be coming.

WHEN those refugees become legal, in several years' time, the immigration laws may well have changed.  In the meantime, the UK will accept those who have the legal right to immigrate.

A lot of people who voted for Brexit wants the UK to have control over their own borders.

As moby, Boethius and I all posted upthread, the UK already has this control.

In the past you said those refugees will be productive and help the EU's economy. If you really believe that fantasy, you should take them all. Build them houses and they'll build NZ into an economic powerhouse.

No, Billy, I didn't say that at all.  What I DID say was this (click the link, because I'm not going to repost the entire thread):


As for taking them all, I've already answered that in Reply #159 above.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 26, 2016, 10:11:04 PM

As moby, Boethius and I all posted upthread, the UK already has this control.


Wonderful. Those voting for Brexit based on immigration concerns don't know what they're doing. They are the uneducated voters. If only they listened to you three.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 26, 2016, 10:27:37 PM

FP, I really don't understand nor grasp your statement. Why on Earth would banks want to punish GB? I'm betting that right now the financial markets are scrambling to maintain some sort of fiscal stability because what's coming up is a major roller-coaster ride. There are no winners here, from a financial point of view.

The old adage is always follow the money. The central banks essentially is the EU and Britain is still a strong financial market and it's contribution to the Euro was/is very large. A couple of things are very unstable as a result of UK leaving, one is the Euro and the other is the European Union. Greece, Spain, Italy, the Baltics certainly are not going to prop up the currency or hold the Union together. France and Germany are quite extended. The World bank is pissed
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 26, 2016, 11:00:14 PM

As moby, Boethius and I all posted upthread, the UK already has this control.



So to clarify, a guy from NZ, a woman from Canada and an Irish passport holder have more knowledge about UK border controls and how things actually work (reality vs legality), than the millions of Britons who live, work, and voted in Brexit. 

Got it.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 11:06:21 PM
The laws are easily available to anyone who is interested.

Today, Boris Johnson stated Brexit was not about immigration. But as the most prominent pro Brexit Tory and face of the Brexit campaign, what could he possibly know?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 26, 2016, 11:30:09 PM
The laws are easily available to anyone who is interested.

Today, Boris Johnson stated Brexit was not about immigration. But as the most prominent pro Brexit Tory and face of the Brexit campaign, what could he possibly know?

According to USA laws, there are no illegal immigrants in the borders of the USA, who have committed crimes, served their time, and who remain inside the borders of the USA, as they were all deported instead of being released back into the community.

Get your brain out of "legality" mode and into "reality" mode, it might help your cognitive processing.

Google News search on "Brexit immigration" or any other terms you desire... it's quite clear that immigration was a big part of the debate. 

If it wasn't about immigration, then no Brexit supporter should be called xenophobic as a result of their vote. Do you agree?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 26, 2016, 11:34:44 PM
But if legality is irrelevant, nothing re immigration will change post Brexit.

BTW, moby's lives in the UK. Where his passport is from is irrelevant.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on June 27, 2016, 04:28:21 AM
So to clarify, a guy from NZ, a woman from Canada and an Irish passport holder have more knowledge about UK border controls and how things actually work (reality vs legality), than the millions of Britons who live, work, and voted in Brexit. 

Got it.

Patrick--there is a vast difference from actually knowing and understanding  on any topic- and the contrast with what can be googled or read in Wiki . :)

The latter is the domain of forum pretend know it alls-- particularly as practiced on rua by the legend in his own matchbox FiFi.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on June 27, 2016, 04:51:58 AM
So to clarify, a guy from NZ, a woman from Canada and an Irish passport holder have more knowledge about UK border controls and how things actually work (reality vs legality), than the millions of Britons who live, work, and voted in Brexit. 

Got it.

Add to the list USExpat living in eu and other countries all his life married to RUW who although has permanent residence status needed a visa just to visit UK.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 27, 2016, 05:08:47 AM
So to clarify, a guy from NZ, a woman from Canada and an Irish passport holder have more knowledge about UK border controls and how things actually work (reality vs legality), than the millions of Britons who live, work, and voted in Brexit. 

Got it.

Indeed you have it

I am a UK Citizen and passport holder, too

Having used Border controls at over 30 plus ports of entry - Scotland, Wales, England, N.Ireland and the Border controls at the Chunnel,[ as a Train passenger, frieght terminal, and car ] - Paris plus Dunkirk and Calais - I think I might just know.....

After the Good Friday Agreement - I decided to get an Irish passport as it  is convenient to have two passports - if one is getting a visa

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 27, 2016, 07:27:02 AM
It's easier to immigrate to the Eu than America. Once established in the EU, they can come to America. 9/11 showed that scenario. Although UK didn't take their fair share if Syrian immigrants, that may be due to the fact Brexit was on the plate. Next go around the EU will pressure UK to do more or get less. Those Syrian refugees will someday be able to travel more freely in the EU and go to the US. Many aren't trying to embrace your way of life. Some and their children will be radicalized and will want to change your way of life to theirs. I normally defend immigration although many complain immigrants will steal their jobs. I don't see any benefits to the Recent Syrian immigration. I don't believe those people will pull their own weight.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 27, 2016, 07:39:36 AM

Here are his comments, starting at about 13:30 -




And here is an op-ed piece Obama penned -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/)




Personally, I don't find either sticking his nose in the election, nor out of line.


after watching the speech, I will have to retract my earlier comments regarding Obama being inappropriate....what we have here is a a few people distorting his comments once again, I should have known....  In that speech Obama merely stated the realities of the situation.   He went out of his way to mention that obviously it was there choice, and that he hoped they would stay in the EU...No big threats like others later purport.


Fathertime! 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 27, 2016, 07:44:15 AM

Finding this give and take more frustrating than it is worth,  I am silenced.  Better that than saying what I really think.
most of what you say is covering up how you really are anyway.


Fathertime!   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 27, 2016, 07:49:47 AM
FT, some feel the way you and Bo does. Others feel Obama insulted the Uk using fear tactics to sway their vote. You ALL are right to feel the way you do. I think if Obama had a chance to do the speech over, he would change a few things because a few people were insulted by it.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 27, 2016, 07:58:37 AM
Patrick--there is a vast difference from actually knowing and understanding  on any topic- and the contrast with what can be googled or read in Wiki . :)

The latter is the domain of forum pretend know it alls-- particularly as practiced on rua by the legend in his own matchbox FiFi.


Except that moby is a UK citizen and has crossed many UK borders.


I didn't google or read it on wiki.  This has been widely reported in the UK press over the past six months. 


Illegal immigration will change not one whit if the UK leaves the EU, as it has zero to do with the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 27, 2016, 08:46:25 AM
According to USA laws, there are no illegal immigrants in the borders of the USA, who have committed crimes, served their time, and who remain inside the borders of the USA, as they were all deported instead of being released back into the community.

No, that is inaccurate.  American law does not state that there are no illegal immigrants in the US, nor that there are no illegal immigrants serving time in US prisons.   American law sets out the parameters of how immigrants are to enter the US, and how they can be deported.  How the US chooses to enforce immigration laws, or whether it chooses to enforce them at all, is a completely different matter.

Quote
Get your brain out of "legality" mode and into "reality" mode, it might help your cognitive processing.

The reality is that immigration into the UK by non EU members exceeds that by EU members.  That is by UK government statistics.  How, exactly, will that change by leaving the EU?

Quote
Google News search on "Brexit immigration" or any other terms you desire... it's quite clear that immigration was a big part of the debate. 

Net immigration by EU members into the UK in 2015 was 184,000 in a country of 64.1 million.  The total number of EU members living in the UK is 3 million.  Of that number, 1 million are students, most of whom will not settle in the UK.  [As an aside, there are 1.2 million UK citizens living in the EU.  Of that number, 400,000 are pensioners.]

Here's a fairly comprehensive site on the issue -

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-flows-a8-and-other-eu-migrants-and-uk (http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-flows-a8-and-other-eu-migrants-and-uk)

From a Parliamentary report -

Quote
In 2014, 13% of people migrating to the UK were British nationals, 42% were nationals of other EU countries, and 45% were nationals of non-EU countries.

The numbers are similar for 2015, though haven't been finalized.

From the BBC -
Quote
The estimated employment level of EU nationals (excluding British) living in the UK was 2.1 million in January to March 2016 - 224,000 higher than the same quarter last year, according to the Labour Force Survey.

British nationals in employment increased by 185,000 to 28.2 million and non-EU nationals in employment increased by 5,000 to 1.2 million.

Over half of the growth in employment over the last year was accounted for by foreign nationals.

There were 630,000 National Insurance number registrations by EU nationals in the year to March 2016, an increase of 1,000 on the previous year. For non-EU nationals, there were 195,000 registrations, an increase of 2,000 on the previous year.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36382199 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36382199)

Here is a site with a breakdown of EU citizens in the UK, by country, and UK residents in the EU, by country -

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354

So based on these statistics, and given that over half of net immigration to the UK is by non EU members, please explain how this immigration is "out of control" and how the UK will "take back sovereignty" over its borders.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 27, 2016, 09:16:54 AM

after watching the speech, I will have to retract my earlier comments regarding Obama being inappropriate....what we have here is a a few people distorting his comments once again, I should have known....  In that speech Obama merely stated the realities of the situation.   He went out of his way to mention that obviously it was there choice, and that he hoped they would stay in the EU...No big threats like others later purport.

Obama's [edit: controversial] statements are not contained anywhere within that link. I'm not sure what that was you were given (in error, I'm sure). It looks like a POTUS opinion editorial to me but it ain't the right one...Yep, having just proof read my link for content before posting he even mentions the op-ed you were linked in the transcript.

Here is the speech and Q&A transcript that actually contain his statements...

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/22/remarks-president-obama-and-prime-minister-cameron-joint-press

Brass



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 27, 2016, 09:46:33 AM
Front pages of 24 newspapers/journals. 

http://www.theguardian.com/media/gallery/2016/jun/25/brexit-front-pages-in-pictures#img-1
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 27, 2016, 09:59:57 AM
most of what you say is covering up how you really are anyway.

Okay smartass.  Because you believe you know me, what was I thinking and refusing to say? 


Don't be shy.  Do not deflect.  This is an opportunity to demonstrate your intelligence. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 27, 2016, 10:07:44 AM
Investment notes by Argus Research regarding Brexit. 


(sorry, link doesn't work)

A summary of why the sky is not following.  The US is relatively safe haven.

Quote
Watch Fundamentals Amid Gyrations

Stocks fell sharply last week when the UK voted to leave the EU. We'll review market fundamentals, as recent market activity can create buying opportunities. Our U.S. GDP forecast for 2016 remains 2.0%, as we expect stronger growth in the upcoming quarters. Global GDP forecasts currently call for growth of 3.2% in 2016, with Emerging Market growth of 4.1%. Both of these rates are higher than the growth rates in 2015. The outlook for 2017, according to the IMF, is 3.5% for global growth and 4.5% for EM growth. Growth in Developed Countries is forecast at 1.9% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017. Turmoil in Europe could cut 20-40 basis points from these rates over the next two years, with declines most concentrated in the UK and Europe. Interest rates have fallen in the wake of the Brexit vote, not only to reflect lower economic growth expectations but in reaction to a global flight to quality. We expect the Fed to keep rates low into 2017. The decline in stock prices Friday and the increase in bond prices creates an even more undervalued status for stocks. At current prices, stocks are about 15% below fair value. We note again that bear markets don't generally start when stocks are priced at such a discount to bonds.

I disagree with the "stocks are about 15% below fair value' opinion."  Everything else seems reasonable.   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 27, 2016, 10:36:16 AM
Obama's statements are not contained anywhere within that link. I'm not sure what that was you were given (in error, I'm sure). It looks like a POTUS opinion editorial to me but it ain't the right one...Yep, having just proof read my link for content before posting he even mentions the op-ed you were linked in the transcript.

Here is the speech and Q&A transcript that actually contain his statements...

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/22/remarks-president-obama-and-prime-minister-cameron-joint-press

Brass

I took and read his remarks as a veiled threat. I would think many Brits did too
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: The Natural on June 27, 2016, 03:26:07 PM
From my favourite American, Paul Craig Roberts:


http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/06/24/471995/Brexit-EU-WWIII-Paul-Craig-Roberts
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 27, 2016, 03:42:07 PM
No, that is inaccurate.  American law does not state that there are no illegal immigrants in the US, nor that there are no illegal immigrants serving time in US prisons.   American law sets out the parameters of how immigrants are to enter the US, and how they can be deported.  How the US chooses to enforce immigration laws, or whether it chooses to enforce them at all, is a completely different matter.

You are exactly correct!  My comment was tongue-in-cheek. 

"How the EU and UK chooses to enforce immigration laws, or whether it chooses to enforce them at all" was exactly the point I was making.  Reality not legality.


The reality is that immigration into the UK by non EU members exceeds that by EU members.  That is by UK government statistics.  How, exactly, will that change by leaving the EU?

Net immigration by EU members into the UK in 2015 was 184,000 in a country of 64.1 million.  The total number of EU members living in the UK is 3 million.  Of that number, 1 million are students, most of whom will not settle in the UK.  [As an aside, there are 1.2 million UK citizens living in the EU.  Of that number, 400,000 are pensioners.]

Here's a fairly comprehensive site on the issue -

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-flows-a8-and-other-eu-migrants-and-uk (http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-flows-a8-and-other-eu-migrants-and-uk)

From a Parliamentary report -

The numbers are similar for 2015, though haven't been finalized.


Without the 2015 actions by Merkel etc., which would coincide with the surge of non-Syrian and some Syrian migrants, I don't think Brexit would have been voted for in the same way.

It appears 2014 numbers are at this point more than 18 months old. 18 months ago there were not nearly as many people who were pro-Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 27, 2016, 04:35:19 PM
Although UK didn't take their fair share if Syrian immigrants, that may be due to the fact Brexit was on the plate.

BillyB

please stop posting daft

The UK had not signed up to an EU Directive -  whereby member states promised to 'share the load 'of any migrant crisis'... long before ..

You are as ignorant as many of those who voted Brexit thinking Turks would be getting visas .... and the UK  economy would improve

The GBP has fallen 15 percent against the Greenback in a week

Mr Bamford of JCB excavator fame will be pleased ..he was one of few UK businesses that supported a Brexit..he can sell his diggers for 15 percent less and still make the same profit..... until new trade tariffs kick in
 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 27, 2016, 05:07:54 PM
Without the 2015 actions by Merkel etc., which would coincide with the surge of non-Syrian and some Syrian migrants, I don't think Brexit would have been voted for in the same way.

It appears 2014 numbers are at this point more than 18 months old. 18 months ago there were not nearly as many people who were pro-Brexit.


I agree.  However, it's my understanding it will takes 8 years to obtain German citizenship.  Further, German social benefits are as good as those in the UK, so those refugees in Germany likely won't be moving to the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Muzh on June 27, 2016, 05:49:43 PM
Unlike Bush, Obama is intelligent.   Both Bush and Obama made big mistakes, yet each time the liberal leaning media has given Obama a pass.    So what is the difference to explain the supposed rancor? 
 

In comparison with Bush, Obama is arrogant, undemocratic to the point of excluding half of America, secretive, and dishonest.  He may be hypocritical and I could nominate others.  Enough!   These faults are not why I dislike Obama.  I dislike him because he further divided the country, mostly by not being the leader who would step in and fix the festering partisan problem.   Leadership starts at the top.  He could have succeeded.  Obama missed the opportunity of a lifetime.  Race had nothing to do with Obama failing to be the man we needed. 

In 2009 I merely questioned Obama.  Today, I really dislike the man, more than I should because in a way I agree with some of his policies. 

Even with all of Obama's faults and mistakes, his approval ratings have climbed here in his final year although the economy  that never fully recovered is now on the edge of teetering.  Why did his ratings climb?  He looks good when compared  with his two potential successors.  God help America.

Because I am near speechless, the effectiveness of this silencing tactic is demonstrated.  Between being distracted by your absurdity and my watching a ball game, I missed bidding on something my wife wanted at a local auction.  I did buy her some nice  .....

Finding this give and take more frustrating than it is worth,  I am silenced.  Better that than saying what I really think.


Bla bla bla, liberal media, bla bla bla arrogant, bla bla bla leadership.


Yea yea yea.


First, the liberal media. When the press reports things that are not the sound bites people like to hear, they are lamestream meadia. However, when they report "facts" that are verifiably UNtrue but is what some want to hear, then they are refered to "fair and balanced." Check with our resident conspiracy theorist who immediately came to your defense. He is the classic accuser of "lamestream" media because the media ignores the bullshit posted on the internet as "facts."


Arrogant you say. My, you are having a big problem with your short-term memory. Never heard of Dubya strutting here and there. Arrogant bufoon and he still was treated as a President BECAUSE of the office he held. Can you say the same about the Nigr? Like "You Lie!!" while addressing Congress. Or how about "Our intent is to make him a one-term president" not even 30 days in office. Or the many times he wanted to meet in the middle and the alumimun foil hat members of Congress would revolt while giving the Nigr a one-finger salute. Yes, indeed. He deserved it, after all, there is nothing as bad as an arrogant Nigr. Isn't it? Keep in mind that these fools also staged a coup against a Conservative because he was trying to work with the Nigr.


I really do not give a rats ass if you find yourself speechless. That would be a first. But guilt trips don't work on me. You want to keep your eyes closed, that is your prerrogative. But don't come to me pontificating this nonsense that your civility has been assaulted. As I said earlier, I have more respect for those who say it as it is.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 27, 2016, 06:43:03 PM
A preview of this discussion if continued. 


ME:  Blah, blah, blah.

YOU:  Nigr, nigr, nigr......YOU ARE A RACIST!



The preview sucks!  So let's not go there. 


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 27, 2016, 06:55:22 PM
BillyB

please stop posting daft

The UK had not signed up to an EU Directive -  whereby member states promised to 'share the load 'of any migrant crisis'... long before ..

You are as ignorant as many of those who voted Brexit thinking Turks would be getting visas .... and the UK  economy would improve

 
 

You think Merkel is risking her job taking in a million refugees without asking EU leaders to help pull the load on refugees? Of course she asked Cameron and he told her a decision on that will have to wait after the vote on Brexit.

Between EU and UK we'll see who has the better economy in 10 years. I think only one of the two will be left standing. The bureaucrats in Brussels is working themselves out of a job. One thing I do know about all those expert economists who say EU is good for UK is that they aren't recommending the EU is good for America too and should join. Think about that.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 27, 2016, 07:04:53 PM

Bla bla bla, liberal media, bla bla bla arrogant, bla bla bla leadership.


Yea yea yea.



Oh come on, he has to parrot the same excuse about the 'liberal media'!





 

I really do not give a rats ass if you find yourself speechless. That would be a first. But guilt trips don't work on me. You want to keep your eyes closed, that is your prerrogative. But don't come to me pontificating this nonsense that your civility has been assaulted. As I said earlier, I have more respect for those who say it as it is.


phony 'fair-mindedness' and civility is all it is..nothing more...


Fathertime! 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 27, 2016, 07:08:35 PM
Obama's [edit: controversial] statements are not contained anywhere within that link. I'm not sure what that was you were given (in error, I'm sure). It looks like a POTUS opinion editorial to me but it ain't the right one...Yep, having just proof read my link for content before posting he even mentions the op-ed you were linked in the transcript.

Here is the speech and Q&A transcript that actually contain his statements...

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/22/remarks-president-obama-and-prime-minister-cameron-joint-press (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/22/remarks-president-obama-and-prime-minister-cameron-joint-press)

Brass


I'm not sure if you viewed the link that boethius provided but it is the same speech.


I'm on pretty high alert when the US is using unreasonable pressure on another nation and in this case I don't see it..  The transcript you provided and the youtube are the same comments....In watching it, I didn't view it as a threat at all....Clearly Obama didn't want the brexit to happen, and he said so, but he did not threaten like others were saying here...


Fathertime! 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 27, 2016, 07:12:21 PM

I'm not sure if you viewed the link that boethius provided but it is the same speech.


I'm on pretty high alert when the US is using unreasonable pressure on another nation and in this case I don't see it..  The transcript you provided and the youtube are the same comments....In watching it, I didn't view it as a threat at all....Clearly Obama didn't want the brexit to happen, and he said so, but he did not threaten like others were saying here...


Fathertime!


I just read Brass's link.



I didn't take what Obama said as a threat.  I did take it as coercion but was probably done at the behest of Cameron.  Obama was probably telling the truth that any treaties with the UK will be at the bottom of the "todo" list. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 27, 2016, 07:42:24 PM

FT, everytime I read statement like this from you I wonder what is your opinion the POTUS is to do? The leader of the strongest army in the world. What should he do?


Because we have the strongest military doesn't give us license to help overthrow presidents we don't like, which is what I think we have been doing...I think generally speaking we should be way more reserved with the use of our military.  We have become an aggressor state in many ways.


Fathertime!     
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 27, 2016, 07:51:26 PM
Here's how the UK can expect to be treated by the frumpy frau and the rest of her EU posse for the remainder of the Brexit process.

EU capos hold a circle jerk and agree to some punitive measures. Which in itself is surprising because normally these clowns couldn't organize a two man run to a three man shitter if their lives depended on it...

European leaders rule out informal Brexit talks before article 50 is triggered

..."Decision deals major blow to leave campaign leaders, who show no sign of wanting to launch formal proceedings"...

..."The leaders of Germany, France and Italy have insisted that no Brexit talks of any kind can begin until Britain has formally applied to leave the European Union, which EU officials expect to happen before the end of the year.

On the eve of a crunch summit in Brussels, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said she, president François Hollande of France and Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, had agreed at their meeting in Berlin that “there will be no formal or informal talks about Britain’s exit” until the UK has triggered article 50, the untested procedure that governs a member state leaving"...
 
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/europe-leaders-crunch-talks-brexit-fallout

So in typical EU hypocritical fashion these idiots have already met formally about Brexit to announce there will be no informal or formal meetings about Brexit.

What else have these back stabbing hooligans been up to?...Oh wait....

The EU Plans to Move Its Bank Regulator out of London After Brexit Vote

..."The EU is preparing to move its European Banking Authority from London following Britain’s vote to leave the Union, EU officials said on Sunday, setting up a race led by Paris and Frankfurt to host the regulator.

Coming a day after Britain’s Jonathan Hill resigned and was replaced as EU financial services chief by the Commission’s “Mr. Euro” Valdis Dombrovskis, the move underlines how the City of London can expect to be frozen out of EU financial regulation—and possibly from Europe’s capital markets—depending on the terms of Brexit."...

http://fortune.com/2016/06/27/eu-bank-regulator-london/

So it's not OK for the UK to confer with the EU to smooth the way but the EU can meet and plan/implement measures as long as it's in their favor. I get it. :rolleyes:

Wow. So far the people of the UK have been threatened by Obama, are enduring a run up to punitive actions from the EU, for days have been continually insulted, slandered/libeled by the worldwide left wing media .... and all this just for exercising their sovereign right to determine their own future.

Now, think about this for a moment, folks. The UK is the most powerful nation in Europe. Imagine if a mid power EU country had the temerity to stick up it's hand and say "Excuse me but we're thinking of exit as well".

I'd guess it'd be kinda like the neighborhood restaurant owner telling the local mafia don he can't afford to pay any more protection money...

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 27, 2016, 08:05:50 PM

I'm not sure if you viewed the link that boethius provided but it is the same speech.

I'm on pretty high alert when the US is using unreasonable pressure on another nation and in this case I don't see it..  The transcript you provided and the youtube are the same comments....In watching it, I didn't view it as a threat at all....Clearly Obama didn't want the brexit to happen, and he said so, but he did not threaten like others were saying here...

1. That link does not lead to a youtube vid. It leads to an op-ed... but it's not important.

2. Veiled, coercive, overt, covert, solicited or unsolicited; it doesn't matter. It was a threat of 'bad things can happen if you don't stay in the gang' and completely inappropriate.

No foreign head of state should be making speeches in another sovereign nation trying to swing the vote one way or the other during an election or referendum campaign *period*

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 27, 2016, 08:46:00 PM

I just read Brass's link.



I didn't take what Obama said as a threat.  I did take it as coercion but was probably done at the behest of Cameron.  Obama was probably telling the truth that any treaties with the UK will be at the bottom of the "todo" list.

Perhaps that is true for Obama but, UK is still UK and for most administrations going forward, likely will be treated no differently. I suspect there is much hyperbole about
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 27, 2016, 09:19:48 PM
Perhaps that is true for Obama but, UK is still UK and for most administrations going forward, likely will be treated no differently. I suspect there is much hyperbole about


Right, I don't see the US treating the UK any different.  If there is enough incentive, any treaties will become a bigger priority.


Peter Schiff had an interesting take on the fallout.  He thought it was more of a self-fulfilling prophecy happening.  All the gloom and doom to get people to vote to stay ended up making it happen when the vote came out to leave.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38qlUfslIYw
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 27, 2016, 09:26:36 PM
UK will need 2 years to divorce the EU. Obama probably has people working on a trade agreement right now. UK won't be at the back of the line as Obama falsely warned to sway voters. Two years from now America and the UK will be trading without missing a beat.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on June 27, 2016, 09:41:31 PM

2. Veiled, coercive, overt, covert, solicited or unsolicited; it doesn't matter. It was a threat of 'bad things can happen if you don't stay in the gang' and completely inappropriate.

No foreign head of state should be making speeches in another sovereign nation trying to swing the vote one way or the other during an election or referendum campaign *period*

Brass



I tend to agree with your final point, although not entirely.  I think it is ok to make some reasonable points as Obama did.  He made it clear that he would prefer there was no Brexit, and with that information the UK voters were able to factor that into their decision...in this case more people didn't care and decided to leave anyway....good for them I guess.   Had Obama made any real threats as it was characterized earlier in this thread, I would have stood against what Obama did, but listening to his comments he was very delicate in how he spoke...even with that some people ran and took his comments to a place he didn't actually go!


It is done now, it really doesn't have to do with Obama, so it is odd that some people put this on his 'list of failures'...and if it is a 'failure' Why would those same people vote for Trump?  Trump says he thinks it is great, even if it is harmful to the US. Heck, the "Remain" people should have asked Trump to support the "Exit" vote, and it probably would have lost!


Fathertime!

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 27, 2016, 09:44:55 PM

Right, I don't see the US treating the UK any different.  If there is enough incentive, any treaties will become a bigger priority.


Peter Schiff had an interesting take on the fallout.  He thought it was more of a self-fulfilling prophecy happening.  All the gloom and doom to get people to vote to stay ended up making it happen when the vote came out to leave.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38qlUfslIYw

I think Schiff is exactly right. The Swiss are a prime example. The most prosperous country in Europe isn't in the EU. I see the EU as a failed experiment that wasn't an experiment. The globalist looked to it as an example. The example is Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain in selling your children's soul for your debts today rather than paying the piper. Germany and France with some insane idea that their birth rate is too low and thus must import Muslims and trade off your culture and history? Really? Is it any wonder the Brits woke up and just say "Fvck no?"
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 28, 2016, 12:19:06 AM
I think Schiff is exactly right. The Swiss are a prime example. The most prosperous country in Europe isn't in the EU.

Live from Ukraine and FP


You DO know that Switzerland - like Norway and Lichtenstein  - are members of the EEA - which means they pay to be part of the EU club - must obey it's rules- but cannot vote to control /influence....


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 28, 2016, 12:26:22 AM
UK will need 2 years to divorce the EU. Obama probably has people working on a trade agreement right now. UK won't be at the back of the line as Obama falsely warned to sway voters. Two years from now America and the UK will be trading without missing a beat.

1/The US isn't  the UK's largest trading partner..that's the EU

2/ Trade agreements usually take up to 10 years to agree - as does JOINING the EU..so why do you think the UK will be a 'special case' ?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 28, 2016, 04:29:55 AM
1/The US isn't  the UK's largest trading partner..that's the EU

2/ Trade agreements usually take up to 10 years to agree - as does JOINING the EU..so why do you think the UK will be a 'special case' ?

The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world.  Plus, the major financial services hub of the hidden govt. That's why it's a special case. When has The City not gotten what it wants, on any matter it cares about?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 28, 2016, 05:45:13 AM
Live from Ukraine and FP


You DO know that Switzerland - like Norway and Lichtenstein  - are members of the EEA - which means they pay to be part of the EU club - must obey it's rules- but cannot vote to control /influence....


Thanks Moby, I am learning this as I go so please bare with me.  I knew there was a connection but wasn't aware of what that connection was.


I did some quick searches once you said EEA and came up with this.

Quote
The EEA goes beyond traditional free trade agreements (FTAs) by extending the full rights and obligations of the EU’s internal market to the EFTA countries (with the exception of Switzerland). The EEA incorporates the four freedoms of the internal market (free movement of goods, people, services and capital) and related policies (competition, transport, energy and economic and monetary cooperation). The agreement includes horizontal policies strictly related to the four freedoms: social policies (including health and safety at work, labour law and the equal treatment of men and women); policies on consumer protection, the environment, statistics and company law; and a number of flanking policies, such as those relating to research and technological development, which are not based on the EU acquis or legally binding acts, but are implemented through cooperation activities.

The limitations...

Quote
The limits of the EEAThe EEA Agreement does not establish binding provisions in all sectors of the internal market or in other policies under the EU Treaties. In particular, its binding provisions do not concern:the common agricultural policy and the common fisheries policy (although the agreement contains provisions on trade in agricultural and fishery products);the customs union;the common trade policy;the common foreign and security policy;the field of justice and home affairs (although all the EFTA countries are part of the Schengen area); orthe economic and monetary union (EMU).




I bolded what I thought was important.  Please correct me if I am wrong.   Not being a part of the EMU allows those countries to dictate their own economic policy. 


While the EU economic policy is dictated by the European Council. 

Correct? 

If so, I can see why some countries went with the EEA instead of becoming a EU member.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 28, 2016, 05:49:31 AM
The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world.  Plus, the major financial services hub of the hidden govt. That's why it's a special case. When has The City not gotten what it wants, on any matter it cares about?


There is talks about a lot of jobs moving out of UK into neighboring EU countries to better serve the EU market.  A lot of jobs, supposedly, will be financial jobs.  I'm even seeing articles about a possible IT shortage. 


I still think it's too early to know exactly what will happen.  Emotions are at a all time high and I do believe things will slow down.  Possibly even get back to what would be considered normal.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 28, 2016, 05:49:43 AM
Live from Ukraine and FP


You DO know that Switzerland - like Norway and Lichtenstein  - are members of the EEA - which means they pay to be part of the EU club - must obey it's rules- but cannot vote to control /influence....

Ah no. Switzerland did not join the EEA and yet has numerous trade agreements with the EU. More hyperbole. The Swiss opted out of both the EU and the EEA yet has more than enough trade partners in Europe and the world
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 28, 2016, 05:52:36 AM
Ah no. Switzerland did not join the EEA and yet has numerous trade agreements with the EU. More hyperbole. The Swiss opted out of both the EU and the EEA yet has more than enough trade partners in Europe and the world


You're right! 

http://www.gov.uk/eu-eea (http://www.gov.uk/eu-eea)


I even missed it on the site I was looking at previously.  :-\


http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_6.5.3.html

Quote
While Switzerland is not part of the EEA, it remains a member of EFTA. More than 120 sectoral bilateral treaties linking the country with the EU incorporate largely the same provisions as those adopted by the other EEA countries in the fields of the free movement of people, goods, services and capital. However, bilateral relations have been severely strained since the February 2014 anti-immigration initiative, the outcome of which called into question the principles of free movement and the single market that underpin those relations



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 28, 2016, 08:36:34 AM
1/The US isn't  the UK's largest trading partner..that's the EU

2/ Trade agreements usually take up to 10 years to agree - as does JOINING the EU..so why do you think the UK will be a 'special case' ?

You've done business before, right? You wouldn't let a million dollar contract slip through your hands because you can't get hash over the details and get the paperwork signed in time. America isn't going to let trillions of dollars of trade slip through our hands. UK isn't going to be without trading partners for 8 years after leaving the EU. Give Brexit a chance. If the EU is still around, they'll take you back. They want UK more than UK wants them.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 28, 2016, 01:03:42 PM
Switzerland is a signatory to the European Free Trade Association, which requires the free movement of people.  The Swiss voted to restrict that free movement two years ago, so the deal may be revoked.


Switzerland's banking and service sectors are not part of the trade association.  That accounts for 80% of the UK's economy, so their model won't work for the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 28, 2016, 02:09:57 PM
In 6-12 months,  UK will know the negotiated terms for secession from the EU.  Meanwhile, maybe the UK and the EU can negotiate the terms for the UK remaining in the EU.   I say this with the understanding that when Boris Johnson first raised the issue of UK's membership, he did not say the UK needs to exit the EU, he said the UK needs a better deal.


Also, in 6-12 months the UK will  know more about related areas such as whether Scotland will elect to become independent.
 

With this new knowledge,  the UK should have a second referendum in 12-15 months.

Okay Europeans, how likely is this scenario?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 28, 2016, 02:42:00 PM
In 6-12 months,  UK will know the negotiated terms for secession from the EU.  Meanwhile, maybe the UK and the EU can negotiate the terms for the UK remaining in the EU.   I say this with the understanding that when Boris Johnson first raised the issue of UK's membership, he did not say the UK needs to exit the EU, he said the UK needs a better deal.


Also, in 6-12 months the UK will  know more about related areas such as whether Scotland will elect to become independent.
 

With this new knowledge,  the UK should have a second referendum in 12-15 months.

Okay Europeans, how likely is this scenario?

I think you're being optimistic, Gator. Even just in the last four days with the EU preparing to punitively dig it's heels in, the unnecessary assassination of the UK citizenry by the world media and over all chicken little antics going on in the world markets I'd bet a second referendum would produce an even more pronounced decision in favor of Brexit.

These are a proud people and as a society stubborn as hell...They kicked the Romans out. They kept the continental Kings and Emperors off the British Isles for 13 centuries and held on for years against an overwhelming German military force some might argue twice through two world wars in the 20th century. Oh, and while all this was going on they even managed to be the planet's only super power for a couple hundred years to boot.

I'd say the EU has pretty well burned it's bridges with the UK. I'd even go as far as to say the "special relationship" with the US has been damaged short term as well.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on June 28, 2016, 03:15:52 PM
They kept the continental Kings and Emperors off the British Isles for 13 centuries . . .

Oh . . . I thought something happened in 1066 AD.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 28, 2016, 03:52:17 PM
Oh . . . I thought something happened in 1066 AD.

Quite right. I forgot about that (had to look it up just now). Knock 200 years or so off my 13 centuries for the Norman Dynasty.  ;D

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on June 28, 2016, 05:34:48 PM
...They kicked the Romans out.
They did not, Roman legions were withdrawn gradually from Britannia starting in the IV century because of more pressing problems elsewhere.

Knock 200 years or so off my 13 centuries for the Norman Dynasty.  ;D
Keep knocking off a few additional centuries ;D:

- House of Orange-Nassau (1689-1714)
- House of Hanover (1714–1901)
- House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha (1901–1917)

Although, technically, not continental Kings & Emperors :-\.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 28, 2016, 07:06:28 PM
They did not, Roman legions were withdrawn gradually from Britannia starting in the IV century because of more pressing problems elsewhere.
Keep knocking off a few additional centuries ;D:

- House of Orange-Nassau (1689-1714)
- House of Hanover (1714–1901)
- House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha (1901–1917)

Although, technically, not continental Kings & Emperors :-\.

..."Regarding the events of 409 and 410 when the Romano-Britons expelled Roman officials and sent a request for aid to Honorius, Michael Jones (The End of Roman Britain, 1998) offered a different chronology to the same end result: he suggested that the Britons first appealed to Rome and when no help was forthcoming, they expelled the Roman officials and took charge of their own affairs.[39]"...

..."E. A. Thompson ("Britain, A.D. 406–410", in Britannia, 8 (1977), pp. 303–318) offered a more provocative theory to explain the expulsion of officials and appeal for Roman aid. He suggested that a revolt consisting of dissident peasants, not unlike the Bagaudae of Gaul, also existing in Britain, and when they revolted and expelled the Roman officials, the landowning class then made an appeal for Roman aid."...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Roman_rule_in_Britain

I disagree my friend. I'm with you that the Roman Empire was on the wane at this time and were withdrawing all over the empire but the Romans still had garrison units and representatives of Rome in 'Britannia'.

It was those garrisons that were eventually overpowered and ousted along with the remaining Roman government. Although by that time it's debatable whether there would have been any actual ethnic Romans among them.

- House of Orange-Nassau (1689-1714) William III King of Scotland, England, Ireland and Sovereign Prince of Orange from birth. He inherited the Island Kingdoms through marriage and family. Heredity is not the same as conquering. ;)

- House of Hanover (1714–1901) Again heredity. George I inherited his mother's claim to the throne of England when she died. Normal succession no usurping.

- House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha (1901–1917)Edward VII (Albert Edward; 9 November 1841 – 6 May 1910) ..."Edward VII was King of the United Kingdom and the British Dominions and Emperor of India from 22 January 1901 until his death in 1910.

The eldest son of Queen Victoria and Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, Edward was related to royalty throughout Europe. Before his accession to the throne, he served as heir apparent and held the title of Prince of Wales for longer than any of his predecessors."...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_VII

Also heredity.

There's no accounting for family, Sandro. The monarchies of Europe may have all been in bred but they weren't charging onto the Island sword in hand.  :D

Brass
 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 28, 2016, 07:09:43 PM

I'd say the EU has pretty well burned it's bridges with the UK.


UK and Continental Europe have enjoyed peace and prosperity ever since 1945.  A key reason:  interconnected economies created by trade among each other.  Why kill this Golden Goose!

Emotion runs freely now, and unchecked speculation abounds.  As calm and reason are restored, I feel some statesmen will start communicating and can seek a win-win hybrid other than "IN" or "OUT."

Regarding UK, if they do exit completely, is there a reason why the US and UK could not continue to trade under the prior arrangements.   
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 28, 2016, 07:16:33 PM

UK and Continental Europe have enjoyed peace and prosperity ever since 1945.  A key reason:  interconnected economies created by trade among each other.  Why kill this Golden Goose!

Emotion runs freely now, and unchecked speculation abounds.  As calm and reason are restored, I feel some statesmen will start communicating and can seek a win-win hybrid other than "IN" or "OUT."

Regarding UK, if they do exit completely, is there a reason why the US and UK could not continue to trade under the prior arrangements.

I'll get back to you on this. Sandro has me questioning my history lessons again. :D

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 28, 2016, 07:39:14 PM
I'll get back to you on this. Sandro has me questioning my history lessons again. :D


That's okay. 

Regarding Sandro, do not forget to mention Sir Francis Drake vs. the Spanish Armada.  That was a long time ago, so long that the Europeans were barely starting to colonize North America. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 28, 2016, 08:04:52 PM
Here you go.....



(http://media.breitbart.com/media/2016/05/bus-640x480.png)

Quote
Britain’s largest Islamic charity says it wants to “break down barriers” and portray Islam positively by launching a new advertising campaign which will slap the phrase “glory to Allah” on the side of London buses.The new campaign by Islamic Relief is, ostensibly, targeted at raising donations for their Ramadan aid to Syria, but is attracting attention for the “hundreds” of buses which will be decorated with the phrase “Subhan’Allah”, or ‘Glory to Allah’.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/08/london-buses-declare-glory-allah/

Sharia law is coming to Londonstan
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 29, 2016, 03:12:30 AM

Sharia law is coming to Londonstan

You should stay away - keep your Mr Trump away, too ...

Seriously, ANYONE thinking Sharia 'law' is legal in the UK is likely to be the type that would have voted Brexit ....

Clueless, uninformed and YES xenophobic ...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 29, 2016, 04:06:13 AM
You should stay away - keep your Mr Trump away, too ...

Seriously, ANYONE thinking Sharia 'law' is legal in the UK is likely to be the type that would have voted Brexit ....

Clueless, uninformed and YES xenophobic ...

Is this article wholly inaccurate,  then?

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3234/muslim-polygamists-welfare-benefits

Polygamous Muslim marriage is part of sharia  IMHO.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 29, 2016, 04:11:24 AM
You should stay away - keep your Mr Trump away, too ...

Seriously, ANYONE thinking Sharia 'law' is legal in the UK is likely to be the type that would have voted Brexit ....

Clueless, uninformed and YES xenophobic ...

You are losing it brother. In one breath you state "stay away and keep Trump away" and the next breath you accuse him of xenophobia. You do know what xenophobic means don't you? More voted Brexit than didn't. There is nothing wrong with not embracing globalism or being governed by a body you are not or at best sparsely represented by. Nothing whatsoever wrong with that. You are chanting the worldwide liberal mantra. "If you don't believe like we do you are a racist bastard", that's bullshit Moby
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 29, 2016, 07:00:59 AM
http://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13521962_10210063230563312_5525465977383377914_n.jpg?oh=2e828b3bc29e3f2c6c034da10d4cce52&oe=5807287B (http://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13521962_10210063230563312_5525465977383377914_n.jpg?oh=2e828b3bc29e3f2c6c034da10d4cce52&oe=5807287B)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: TigerPaws on June 29, 2016, 09:30:13 AM
The foreign ministers of France and Germany are reportedly (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662827/Has-Britain-avoided-European-superstate-France-Germany-draw-plans-morph-EU-countries-one-control-members-armies-economies.html) due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an “ultimatum.” As The Express (http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit) reports, the shockingly predictable final solution to Europe’s Brexit-driven existential crisis is an apparently long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one giant superstate. The radical proposals mean EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels. According to the Daily Express (http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit), the nine-page report has “outraged” some EU leaders.
The plans for ‘a closer European Union’ have been branded an attempt to create a ‘European superstate’, as The Daily Mail reports (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662827/Has-Britain-avoided-European-superstate-France-Germany-draw-plans-morph-EU-countries-one-control-members-armies-economies.html)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 29, 2016, 09:38:59 AM
The Express and the Daily Mail are sensationalist rags. Th EU cannot implement change without the consent of all member states.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 29, 2016, 09:51:12 AM
After days of the left wing media screaming and wailing from the roof tops about the world markets there has not been a word of this on the news this a.m....

Global Markets Rise as Brexit Worries Ease

..."Fears that last week’s U.K. vote could disrupt the world economy seem to have receded"...

..."Global markets gained Wednesday, extending a broad rally as fears receded that the U.K.’s referendum vote last week to leave the European Union would disrupt the world economy."...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-markets-rise-as-brexit-worries-ease-1467185655



FTSE 100 jumps nearly 3% despite Brexit recession fears – live updates
 
..."Stock markets in Asia and Europe are recovering, despite the massive uncertainty caused by last week’s EU referendum

FTSE up 169 points heading into close despite Brexit mess"...

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/29/brexit-stock-markets-shares-higher-pound-business-live

The media driven Brexit apocalypse appears to be lasting less than a week.  ;)

In other news...

EU leaders meet without UK to plan Brexit response

..."European leaders insisted Britain must allow freedom of movement if it wanted to access the single market during their first meeting in Brussels without the UK.

“There will be no single market a la carte,” said Donald Tusk, the EU Council president, as the group met to set out the terms of engagement for any divorce talks in the wake of the Brexit vote."...

www.ft.com (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1e327ec-3dd8-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0.html#axzz4CyyXQlRW)

I liken this to a chicken with it's head chopped off and the remainder of the body  flapping around as if it's still alive.

Surely these clowns must realize that it's not what the EU plans to do with the UK but in reality how the UK will handle the EU, it's access to the UK market and economy.

Could it be these individuals don't understand that it was the UK that made the EU viable not the other way around.  :rolleyes:

Brass

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 29, 2016, 10:38:55 AM
UK and Continental Europe have enjoyed peace and prosperity ever since 1945.  A key reason:  interconnected economies created by trade among each other.  Why kill this Golden Goose!

Firstly, I'd just like to point out what you describe in this paragraph took an amazing amount of money, time and effort from many nations including the UK, Canada, Commonwealth nations, the US and several other non continental European countries post WW2.

Now over the last 25 years or so the EU has been allowed (with the UK more or less being the voice of reason) to run their own affairs again...and well...just look at the results. They're back to square one and the rest of the world is again living with the results of their mostly incompetent decisions...sound familiar?

Yes, there has been trade and interconnected economies but imo no more than there would have been without an EU or at least the EU in it's current incarnation. It's predecessor, the EEC and before that the ECSC were both viable/sustainable organizations for handling trade in Europe without all the associated nonsense of the modern EU.

Emotion runs freely now, and unchecked speculation abounds.  As calm and reason are restored, I feel some statesmen will start communicating and can seek a win-win hybrid other than "IN" or "OUT."

Indeed. Now that the world media appears to be calming down, the globalists have slowed down the wailing and self flagellation and the world markets and pound sterling is returning to normal we may see the EU start to understand what is really going on here.

However, as the article I linked in my last post before this narrative intimates, it seems the EU is still under the impression they're in the driver's seat. This is not the case and those ministers should stop the punitive language and start working with the UK to try and keep what's left of their European experiment from further disintegration.

Regarding UK, if they do exit completely, is there a reason why the US and UK could not continue to trade under the prior arrangements.

Not according to Obama if we're to take his threats seriously.

Brass
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: TigerPaws on June 29, 2016, 10:46:13 AM
European SUPERSTATE to be unveiled: EU nations 'to be morphed into one' post-BrexitEUROPEAN political chiefs are to take advantage of Brexit by unveiling their long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one GIANT SUPER State
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit (http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit)

EU Officials To Unveil 'Ultimatum' Blueprint As Final Solution For European Super-State.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/eu-officials-unveil-ultimatum-blueprint-final-solution-european-super-state (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/eu-officials-unveil-ultimatum-blueprint-final-solution-european-super-state)


The cockroaches come into the light.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 29, 2016, 12:06:00 PM
Quote
Simple Definition of xenophobia   
  •   : fear or hatred of strangers or foreigners

OK, forget about 'fear or hatred'...what if you just plain don't like something?
So you have to like it or lump it?
Tell that to the Turks.

   Trending Istanbul Airport Attack (http://www.mirror.co.uk/all-about/istanbul-airport-attack) M&Ds Theme Park (http://www.mirror.co.uk/all-about/mds-theme-park) EU Referendum result (http://www.mirror.co.uk/all-about/eu-referendum-result) Next Conservative leader (http://www.mirror.co.uk/all-about/next-conservative-leader) David Cameron (http://www.mirror.co.uk/all-about/david-cameron) EU referendum (http://www.mirror.co.uk/all-about/eu-referendum) 
Quote
Sharia Law is alive and well in the UK as investigation uncovers shocking details       
  • 13:21, 5 Dec 2015
  • Updated   15:19, 5 Dec 2015 
  • By Alex Wellman
   When one woman asked for help with her abusive husband, one judge allegedly laughed and said: "Why did you marry such a person?"   
  •   Shares
  •   27 comments 
               Getty (http://i4.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article6957510.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/Muslim-man-arrives-at-Birmingham-Central-Mosque.jpg)   Muslim man arrives at Birmingham Central Mosque     An Islamic judge "laughed" at a domestic violence victim who had gone to him seeking help and asked her "Why did you marry such a man?", it has been claimed.
The shocking allegations have been revealed in a report into the use of sharia councils in the UK which also claims men only need to say "I divorce you" three times to separate from their wives while women need the sanction of clerics.
Dutch scholar Machteld Zee managed to get unparalleled access to a number of the religious courts currently operating in the UK - thought to number around 30.
Her report, entitled Choosing Sharia? Multiculturalism, Islamic Fundamentalism and British Sharia Councils which has been seen by the Independent newspaper (http://www.independent.co.uk/), also claims one judge, known as a qadi at a sharia council also said UK law did not matter in cases of divorce.
In one court in east London, it is claimed the qadi told a couple who had already obtained a civil divorce that the paper counted for nothing.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/sharia-law-alive-well-uk-6957168
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 29, 2016, 12:13:35 PM
The Express and the Daily Mail are sensationalist rags. 

Does 'sensationalist' mean they don't suck up to the established status quo?
Quote
      (http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/12/13/22/2F3D282400000578-0-image-a-1_1450045071314.jpg) +5     A distraught wife seeking a divorce at a Sharia Court in London holds her head in her hands as she sits with judge Suhaib Hasan When the husband’s around, he forces her to wear a headscarf. When he isn’t, which is often, he likes to travel to Tunisia, where she suspects he has secretly married several other women.
For all she knows, she adds, he might have accumulated as many as ten other wives. Fighting back tears, as she finishes this tale of betrayal, the woman glances to the cleric, who has a long white beard, and sits at a raised desk in front of a bookcase full of Islamic texts. Perhaps she’s hoping for a supportive smile, confirming she’s not at fault. Maybe she’s seeking reassurance that the man will hold her misogynistic, wife-beating husband to account.
Instead, the elderly cleric, whose name is Suhaib Hasan, starts laughing. ‘Why did you marry such a person?’ he chuckles.
 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3358625/Inside-Britain-s-Sharia-courts-EIGHTY-FIVE-Islamic-courts-dispensing-justice-UK-special-investigation-really-goes-doors-shock-core.html

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 29, 2016, 01:32:45 PM
(http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2016/06/PM_2016.06.07_brexit-00.png)


http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 29, 2016, 04:04:34 PM
(http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2016/06/PM_2016.06.07_brexit-00.png)


Another insightful report from the Pew Research Center.  The report is dated June 7, so the conclusion that EU members have a less favorable view of the EU describes the situation before the Brexit vote. 

Two other headlines from the report reveal much. 

               1.  Europeans generally disapprove of EU’s handling of economy.
               2.  Overwhelming majorities unhappy with EU’s handling of refugees.

One would  think the issues of the economy and refugees would be compelling reasons to think the EU is failing.  However, about half of the surveyed member countries still had a slightly favorable view of the EU.
           

Another chart states  "Disagreement on ‘ever closer’ union."  I find this title so understated as to be misleading.   The respondents from all countries except Poland wanted some powers returned to the national govt.  They outnumbered by a significant margin those who wanted powers to remain the same.     Further telling, the third alternative of giving more power to the EU was a distant third except in all countries except Germany, France and Spain. 

http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/pm_2016-06-07_brexit-05/ 



In summary, the UK was not alone in feeling the EU is failing them.  UK's action was radical.  It may not start a contagion, but it should start a more pressing dialogue about reforming the EU to curtail its social programs and focus on the economy.  Will Germany and France listen?   Over time the pendulum of politics  always swings, one way or the other.     

 


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 29, 2016, 04:12:18 PM
Does 'sensationalist' mean they don't suck up to the established status quo?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3358625/Inside-Britain-s-Sharia-courts-EIGHTY-FIVE-Islamic-courts-dispensing-justice-UK-special-investigation-really-goes-doors-shock-core.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3358625/Inside-Britain-s-Sharia-courts-EIGHTY-FIVE-Islamic-courts-dispensing-justice-UK-special-investigation-really-goes-doors-shock-core.html)


If sharia law applies, the man in the story has not followed it, as Muslim men are not allowed to have 10 wives.


Sharia law does not supplant British law, BTW.  It is used only when the parties agree to take a dispute to the courts.  It is merely a form of mediation.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on June 29, 2016, 04:31:32 PM
Some writers do get to the crux of issues-in this case he could be describing so many of our posters here!

     
The Brexit has laid bare the political schism of our time. It’s not about the left vs. the right; it’s about the sane vs. the mindlessly angry


The schism we see opening before us is not just about policies, but about reality. The Brexit forces won because cynical leaders were prepared to cater to voters’ paranoia, lying to them about the dangers of immigration and the costs of membership in the EU. Some of those leaders have already begun to admit that they were lying. Donald Trump has, of course, set a new standard for disingenuousness and catering to voters’ fears, whether over immigration or foreign trade or anything else he can think of. The Republican Party, already rife with science-deniers and economic reality-deniers, has thrown itself into the embrace of a man who fabricates realities that ignorant people like to inhabit.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/its-time-for-the-elites-to-rise-up-against-ignorant-masses-trump-2016-brexit/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 29, 2016, 04:53:51 PM
Some writers do get to the crux of issues-in this case he could be describing so many of our posters here!

     
The Brexit has laid bare the political schism of our time. It’s not about the left vs. the right; it’s about the sane vs. the mindlessly angr
y.

The schism we see opening before us is not just about policies, but about reality. The Brexit forces won because cynical leaders were prepared to cater to voters’ paranoia, lying to them about the dangers of immigration and the costs of membership in the EU. Some of those leaders have already begun to admit that they were lying. Donald Trump has, of course, set a new standard for disingenuousness and catering to voters’ fears, whether over immigration or foreign trade or anything else he can think of. The Republican Party, already rife with science-deniers and economic reality-deniers, has thrown itself into the embrace of a man who fabricates realities that ignorant people like to inhabit.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/its-time-for-the-elites-to-rise-up-against-ignorant-masses-trump-2016-brexit/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints

Pick one or more of the following:

Racist
Ignorant
Xenophobic
Uneducated
Deluded
Small penis
Etc.

Already heard them all (check the gun thread).

Newsflash: it no longer works.

People who are paying 35% taxes on their labor remember that Apple is able to use legal wrangling to pretend that Ireland where they have almost no employees is the source of over 2.5 billion dollars in profit.

Globalism is just another way for the rich to avoid paying taxes.

Immigration is just another way for the State to enhance its power: mass immigration is the State electing itself a new voting bloc.

Do you believe that the statements made by Aussie politicians, about destroying the Australian/White people by turning them all into a "Eurasian" race, are not true?

Quote
In 1983, former Foreign Minister, Bill Hayden said “There’s already a large and growing Asian population in Australia and it is inevitable in my view that Australia will become a Eurasian country over the next century or two. Australian Asians and Europeans will marry another and a new race will emerge; I happen to think that’s desirable.”



“[We] should welcome the process of gradually becoming a Eurasian-type society. We will not just become a multicultural society – which seems to me to be a soft sort of terminology anyway – we will become a Eurasian society and be the better for it.”

or

Quote
Former Liberal Prime Minister, John Gorton:

“I think that if we build up inside Australia a proportion of people without White skins, then there will be a complete lack of consciousness that it is being built up … and that we will arrive at a state where we will have a multi-racial country without racial tensions – and perhaps the first in the world.”

Population replacement of this sort has a specific name, according to the UN:  it is termed "genocide".
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on June 29, 2016, 06:17:52 PM
The headline fits the narrative well.

FWIW--   John Gorton was Australian Prime Minister( after succeeding Harold Holt who drowned) from 1967-1971 was born in 1911.
All a long time ago in political terms.Things change.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 29, 2016, 06:22:48 PM

If sharia law applies, the man in the story has not followed it, as Muslim men are not allowed to have 10 wives.

My understanding is that the muslim man does not have to follow sharia matrimonial law...only the women do... :crackwhip:  crack that whip

Quote
One Husband - 4 Wives? How can you justify that a man can have four wives in Islam?
If you want to criticize us because we can have four wives, how many girlfriends can you have legally in the state of California? As many as you can fit in your car or your van I guess. There is no limit, you can go rent a bus.
 
 But we have limits, we can not have more than one unless we treat them with the same equality.
 

http://www.justaskislam.com/56/one-husband-4-wives/ (http://www.justaskislam.com/56/one-husband-4-wives/)

Hey, that's a good answer :rolleyes:








 
 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 29, 2016, 06:28:07 PM
My understanding is that the muslim man does not have to follow sharia matrimonial law...only the women do... :crackwhip:  crack that whip

http://www.justaskislam.com/56/one-husband-4-wives/ (http://www.justaskislam.com/56/one-husband-4-wives/)

Hey, that's a good answer :rolleyes:


No, that is inaccurate.  Failure to follow this is called "haram".

Islam is very strict on this.  A man can have up to four wives.  He must treat them equally.  People being people, that doesn't happen, just as most Christians lead less than Christ like lives.  However, the imam's comments on the wife in the link your provided was because the man was not following Islam.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 29, 2016, 06:42:48 PM

No, that is inaccurate.  Failure to follow this is called "haram".

Islam is very strict on this.  A man can have up to four wives.  He must treat them equally.  People being people, that doesn't happen, just as most Christians lead less than Christ like lives.  However, the imam's comments on the wife in the link your provided was because the man was not following Islam.

Of course, you are leaving out "Nikah mutah" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikah_mut%E2%80%98ah ...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 29, 2016, 07:02:44 PM
No, even with such temporary marriages, the total cannot exceed four wives.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 29, 2016, 07:13:35 PM
No, even with such temporary marriages, the total cannot exceed four wives.

Gee, given all that, I can sleep better tonight.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 29, 2016, 07:44:45 PM
Do you believe that the statements made by Aussie politicians, about destroying the Australian/White people by turning them all into a "Eurasian" race, are not true?

or

Population replacement of this sort has a specific name, according to the UN:  it is termed "genocide".

Once again you display a leap of illogicality that is utterly breathtaking.  Neither of the quotes refers to "destruction" of white people, nor to "replacing" the population.  What they are doing is expressing the hope that, at some time in the future, everyone in Australia will be so racially mixed that they will, in essence, all be the same ethnicity, and will have no need or excuse to harbour racist thoughts about other people who are simply a different colour.

Of course it may be pie in the sky, given the population of Australia, but New Zealand is certainly heading well down that track.  I'm white, but I've had Indian and Chinese girlfriends in the past.  The most recent marriage between friends of mine saw a white guy marry a Hong Kong Chinese woman.  Their best friends (and also two very good friends of mine) are a Sri Lankan man and his Malaysian Chinese wife.  Another good friend of mine (white) is married to a Samoan woman.  A Filipina I've known for years recently married a Norwegian man living here.  I could go on, but I'm sure you get the picture.

Sure, there are still many people who wouldn't consider dating or marrying outside their own race, which has been the prevalent course of action for so many years.  However, it's heartening to me to see so many more people these days quite prepared to consider the possibility that they can find love outside those self-imposed borders.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 29, 2016, 08:00:19 PM
Once again you display a leap of illogicality that is utterly breathtaking.  Neither of the quotes refers to "destruction" of white people, nor to "replacing" the population.  What they are doing is expressing the hope that, at some time in the future, everyone in Australia will be so racially mixed that they will, in essence, all be the same ethnicity, and will have no need or excuse to harbour racist thoughts about other people who are simply a different colour.

Of course it may be pie in the sky, given the population of Australia, but New Zealand is certainly heading well down that track.  I'm white, but I've had Indian and Chinese girlfriends in the past.  The most recent marriage between friends of mine saw a white guy marry a Hong Kong Chinese woman.  Their best friends (and also two very good friends of mine) are a Sri Lankan man and his Malaysian Chinese wife.  Another good friend of mine (white) is married to a Samoan woman.  A Filipina I've known for years recently married a Norwegian man living here.  I could go on, but I'm sure you get the picture.

Sure, there are still many people who wouldn't consider dating or marrying outside their own race, which has been the prevalent course of action for so many years.  However, it's heartening to me to see so many more people these days quite prepared to consider the possibility that they can find love outside those self-imposed borders.

When you combine the statements, with the govt-recorded immigration stats, there is no illogic to be found.

The URL: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3412.0/

quote:

"At 30 June 2015, 28.2% of Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) (6.7 million people) was born overseas. "

28% of the population is more than enough to modify election results.  Stupid git!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 29, 2016, 08:14:40 PM
You're assuming that 28% would vote the same way. I doubt that's the case.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on June 29, 2016, 08:29:29 PM
You're assuming that 28% would vote the same way. I doubt that's the case.

90% of that 28% will have assimilated quite well
7%+  will still be in transition
3%  - are in the category of wait and see.Of that 3%-- 3%  will be potential trouble makers!

Australians are generally proud of out history of multiculturalism and integration of different races and cultures . Is it perfect- no .

As an example of more recent migration- at the end of the Vietnamese war we had many Vietnamese come to Australia . This was not without difficulties in the early stages-- but  40 plus years later they have fitted in very well . Even the gangs running around with meat cleavers have been replaced by current migration of Sudanese  gangs -doing much the same !Progress !
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 29, 2016, 09:06:48 PM
You're assuming that 28% would vote the same way. I doubt that's the case.

In the USA, 20% of Hispanics vote Republican - 80%, Democrat.  That is why California is almost entirely Democrat from local to regional to statewide offices.

In Brexit, you can spot the differences quite easily - only 30% of Muslims were Leave ; Hindus and the Chinese voted similarly. 

Like I said, "mass immigration is the State electing itself a new populace".
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 29, 2016, 09:23:17 PM
Quote
In Brexit, you can spot the differences quite easily - only 30% of Muslims were Leave ; Hindus and the Chinese voted similarly. 


That could be because they are urban and well educated, and work in the global economy, rather than because of their ethnicity.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 29, 2016, 09:27:29 PM
As an example of more recent migration- at the end of the Vietnamese war we had many Vietnamese come to Australia . This was not without difficulties in the early stages-- but  40 plus years later they have fitted in very well . Even the gangs running around with meat cleavers have been replaced by current migration of Sudanese  gangs -doing much the same !Progress !


That was very much the experience here, too, in terms of Vietnamese gangs.  They still exist, but far less than in the past.  They've been replaced by Somalis here.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 29, 2016, 09:35:12 PM
When you combine the statements, with the govt-recorded immigration stats, there is no illogic to be found.

The URL: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3412.0/

quote:

"At 30 June 2015, 28.2% of Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) (6.7 million people) was born overseas. "

28% of the population is more than enough to modify election results.  Stupid git!

No, Slumba - YOU'RE the stupid git!  Nowhere in either of those quotes was there any reference to elections.  They were simply statements of hope for the future of their country, something which so many people in the USA will never be able to understand because of the deep divisions which appear so entrenched in your society.  Many countries with smaller populations are far more likely to be able to get past that mindset (obviously not every country!).

I reckon that JayH's analysis would be pretty close to the mark:

90% of that 28% will have assimilated quite well
7%+  will still be in transition
3%  - are in the category of wait and see.Of that 3%-- 3%  will be potential trouble makers!

Australians are generally proud of out history of multiculturalism and integration of different races and cultures . Is it perfect- no .

However, the situation in Australia (and New Zealand) is vastly different from the scenario which you've quoted:

In the USA, 20% of Hispanics vote Republican - 80%, Democrat.  That is why California is almost entirely Democrat from local to regional to statewide offices.

In Brexit, you can spot the differences quite easily - only 30% of Muslims were Leave ; Hindus and the Chinese voted similarly. 

Like I said, "mass immigration is the State electing itself a new populace".

I know immigrant couples where one is a vehement National supporter and the other is equally strident in support of Labour.  Another difference here is that we have several other parties represented in Parliament, and there are many different viewpoints expressed on various issues (even including within one or other of the major parties), so the total duopoly which exists in your Congress and Senate has been a non-issue here for many years.

As for the foreign-born gangs, it's almost a complete zero here (unlike Australia).  The only problems we have are with an occasional flare-up between different Chinese organisations - and even that is a rarity.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 29, 2016, 10:00:41 PM

That could be because they are urban and well educated, and work in the global economy, rather than because of their ethnicity.

They are urban for the most part but as far as the Muslim population goes on average they are not well educated or gainfully employed (I also observed this to a degree while in the UK) ...

Muslims in Britain: What figures tell us

◾20% are in full-time employment (compared to 35% of the general population)

In terms of education, Muslim communities in 2011 are doing comparatively better than in 2001 but lag behind Sikhs and Hindus. Looking at Muslims over the age of 16, 24% have qualifications of Level Four and above (degree level). For the general population this is 27%, for Hindus 45% and Sikhs 30%.

Dr Ali said there were many positives from the report "but also many challenges". 46% of the Muslim population lives in the 10% most deprived local authority districts in England and this has increased since the 2001 census.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31435929

I'd also add they are Patriarchal society. If the Patriarch decides (or Imam advises) he's voting Remain/Leave then chances are the immediate and extended family will all vote the same way. Conceivably you could have 10 votes representing one actual opinion.

Brass



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 29, 2016, 11:01:26 PM
No, Slumba - YOU'RE the stupid git!  Nowhere in either of those quotes


Next you will plead innocence to having any knowledge of the Coudenhove-Kalergi plan. A few posts later you will tell me that you have known about it for years.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on June 30, 2016, 12:00:29 AM
Next you will plead innocence to having any knowledge of the Coudenhove-Kalergi plan. A few posts later you will tell me that you have known about it for years.

Yes, I will cheerfully plead innocence of this plan.  Having looked it up, and become queasy after reading just a few paragraphs of the first Google link, I'm now pissed off at you for ruining my afternoon!  :(

Seriously, though, what does that have to do with the quotations from the two eminent Australians?  Australia (and New Zealand) are far away from Europe, both geographically and in terms of potential world domination.  The extreme right-wing views of the various neo-Nazi type organisations in Russia and Germany, for example, find very little traction in this part of the world.  Of course there are a handful of people with these views anywhere you go - but you won't find any sympathy at all for those views amongst the general population.

This is also one reason why the Muslim leaders within our countries are always amongst the first to decry any atrocities committed in the name of Islam.  As I've posted time and again (probably ad nauseam), this side of the world is generally peaceful when it comes to race relations, and most people get on extremely well with their fellow citizens, whatever colour or religion they may be.  I'd like to think, in general terms at least, that we lead the world in the tolerance stakes.  Some Maori radicals may disagree, but I prefer to treat people as I find them, and not prejudge them simply because they're a different colour or religion from me.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 12:03:58 AM
My understanding is that the muslim man does not have to follow sharia matrimonial law...only the women do... :crackwhip:  crack that whip



Proves the limit of your 'understanding', thanks...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 12:08:58 AM
After days of the left wing media screaming and wailing from the roof tops about the world markets there has not been a word of this on the news this a.m....


Brass,

1/ the referendum was not about left / right   :deadhorse:

2/ tell us about the 'rebound' of the GBP

3/ or the rebound of the FSTE 250


http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/don-t-misled-ftse-250-104444543.html (http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/don-t-misled-ftse-250-104444543.html)

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 12:11:37 AM
Live from Ukraine and FP


You DO know that Switzerland - like Norway and Lichtenstein  - are members of the EEA - which means they pay to be part of the EU club - must obey it's rules- but cannot vote to control /influence....

I was corrected about this......Switzerland is NOT in the EEA..but it has access to the single market in return for obeying EU Directives, such as the right of freedom of movement for EU citizens ...but has NO say in policy / votes / running of the EU
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 12:15:09 AM
When has The City not gotten what it wants, on any matter it cares about?

June 23rd

Keep on demonstrating  your deep understanding

The city is bricking itself about handing it's mantle to Frankfurt  ..

Vodafone stating it will move it's HQ outside the UK if it's employees cannot be hired from any EU nation...

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 30, 2016, 04:49:57 AM
June 23rd

Keep on demonstrating  your deep understanding

The city is bricking itself about handing it's mantle to Frankfurt  ..

Vodafone stating it will move it's HQ outside the UK if it's employees cannot be hired from any EU nation...

I'm talking about the Square Mile.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 30, 2016, 06:18:56 AM
I was corrected about this......Switzerland is NOT in the EEA..but it has access to the single market in return for obeying EU Directives, such as the right of freedom of movement for EU citizens ...but has NO say in policy / votes / running of the EU

Ah ha!  Another nation having a unique deal with the EU. 

Does UK want completely "out" or a better deal, something specific to their situation, values, etc.?   Negotiations in many parts of the world start with a knowingly unacceptable position and work towards the middle, intending to receive something better than the middle.  Iran comes to mind.  Trump does it that way if you have not noticed.  The American press refers to it as "work it backwards."
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 30, 2016, 06:40:46 AM
I was corrected about this......Switzerland is NOT in the EEA..but it has access to the single market in return for obeying EU Directives, such as the right of freedom of movement for EU citizens ...but has NO say in policy / votes / running of the EU

Yet you are still denying it as proof that there is life outside of the EU for European nations? It would appear Moby that it is you that are afraid of change. You've been in the EU so long that you know nothing else?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 07:21:18 AM
I'm talking about the Square Mile.

The square mile is largely situated 3 miles down river to the east, now.... ''Canary Wharf''

Slumba, you might be better to ask questions - your 'expertise' as to things British and the status of posters - who could vote in the referendum -   seems lacking
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on June 30, 2016, 07:32:53 AM
I've read a number of articles many of which are semi-alarmist about the future.
This one shows some of the various layers that they Europeans have.

After Brexit

(http://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iZLegnPD5UFU/v0/-1x-1.png)

read about it here
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-06-30/after-brexit-here-s-what-s-next-for-europe
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 30, 2016, 07:52:08 AM
Proves the limit of your 'understanding', thanks...

 (http://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/a3/8a/89/a38a8950cd9d9919dafec9b6c6f2b895.jpg)


What's your problem today?




Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 08:11:59 AM
My 'problem' is posters who think 'BREXIT' has anything to do with Islam....

But thanks for demonstrating the depth of your 'knowledge'
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 30, 2016, 08:35:50 AM
My 'problem' is posters who think 'BREXIT' has anything to do with Islam....

But thanks for demonstrating the depth of your 'knowledge'

Islam has been a player in the Brexit. Deny it if you wish. Many of the Brits are fed up with their culture taking a back seat to the Islamic immigration. I heard it voiced before and after the vote. Many folks want their England back
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 30, 2016, 08:41:37 AM
Well, that didn't take long

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/684131/brexit-eu-referendum-tsunami-france-italy-netherlands
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 08:48:47 AM
Many folks want their England back

..And they will get their wish.... with Scotland leaving to become independent ...I suggest you look up 'little englander'

If you are 'learning' about Britain from the likes of the Express / Mail - then your 'deep understanding' is now understood  :D

A little exercise to prove your 'knowledge'..

Please explain how any Brexit will halt immigration from nations who are 'Muslim' ?

Which EU nation is majority 'Muslim' - or even 10 percent ..?

You DO realise that the EU has no say on UK immigration policy from nations outside the EU  ?

 :deadhorse:

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 30, 2016, 09:05:41 AM
I was corrected about this......Switzerland is NOT in the EEA..but it has access to the single market in return for obeying EU Directives, such as the right of freedom of movement for EU citizens ...but has NO say in policy / votes / running of the EU

It looks like Merkel is trying to get the UK to allow freedom of movement, including the right to work for EU citizens, if they want to continue trade with the EU.   I don't see it happening.  If I were UK, I would just sit back and watch the EU fold onto itself. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 30, 2016, 09:06:11 AM
..And they will get their wish.... with Scotland leaving to become independent ...I suggest you look up 'little englander'

If you are 'learning' about Britain from the likes of the Express / Mail - then your 'deep understanding' is now understood  :D

A little exercise to prove your 'knowledge'..

Please explain how any Brexit will halt immigration from nations who are 'Muslim' ?

Which EU nation is majority 'Muslim' - or even 10 percent ..?

You DO realise that the EU has no say on UK immigration policy from nations outside the EU  ?

 :deadhorse:

It's one thing to be in political disagreement with others, but being deliberately dense is something else. Not been reading the news the last year? How many millions of Muslims have been let into  EUrabia by Merkel?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 30, 2016, 09:10:22 AM
Quote
So this is something important and many women, when they realize the high position they hold in Islam, they like it because they are treated like a queen.
http://www.justaskislam.com/56/one-husband-4-wives/


 (http://nationalblackroberegiment.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/MuslimWomen.jpg)

  (http://ashesiais.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/photo-2.jpg) 


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 09:11:46 AM



It looks like Merkel is trying to get the UK to allow freedom of movement if they want to continue trade with the EU.

NO...

Merkel made it clear - no access to the single market without complete  freedom of movement for EU citizens
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 30, 2016, 09:13:45 AM
NO...

Merkel made it clear - no access to the single market without complete  freedom of movement for EU citizens


You agree with what I wrote yet said No.  Moby, are you actually reading what is written?   ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 09:15:27 AM
It's one thing to be in political disagreement with others, but being deliberately dense is something else. Not been reading the news the last year? How many millions of Muslims have been let into  EUrabia by Merkel?

The problem is, Slumba, you don't read the 'right news' ..

The UK was NOT a signatory to the EU Directive that said EU states should share the load in a migrant crisis.

So, please explain the 'risk' to the UK ?

Such nonsense was the fear-mongering - very successful - but totally untrue -  of the brexit camp
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 09:19:43 AM

You agree with what I wrote yet said No.  Moby, are you actually reading what is written?   ;D

I HAVE re-read what you said ..... It was not clear what you meant ...

You meant TARIFF-free trade, sticking to the EU designated standards .... ''single-market''

Supporters of Briexit seem to think that the UK can cherry-pick ... we can't

My apologies for any misunderstanding
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on June 30, 2016, 09:20:42 AM
My 'problem' is posters who think 'BREXIT' has anything to do with Islam....

 

Then why?
If not because of [out of control immigration] then why did UK vote out?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 30, 2016, 09:24:25 AM
I HAVE re-read what you said ..... It was not clear what you meant ...

You meant TARIFF-free trade, sticking to the EU designated standards .... ''single-market''

Supporters of Briexit seem to think that the UK can cherry-pick ... we can't

My apologies for any misunderstanding


No need to apologize Moby, I probably could have been more clear which is why I edited the original.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 30, 2016, 09:26:39 AM
Then why?
If not because of [out of control immigration] then why did UK vote out?


From my understanding, the "immigration" problem was from fellow EU countries with less than stellar economies.  Naturally, many would flock to a bigger economy that had more jobs.


If that is indeed true, Merkel making it mandatory that they continue allowing the same countries access to jobs would be a deal breaker for any fast exit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 09:28:15 AM
Then why?
If not because of [out of control immigration] then why did UK vote out?

Sighs,

The Referendum was about 'regaining control'  - limiting EU migration

The UK could already make it's own laws regarding non EU nations.....  i.e limiting migration from Africa, Asia...


Would you read the National Enquirer to understand your govts. laws ?

As to why 'we' voted out .... my region of England, my home nation [ N.Ireland ] London, Gibraltar  and Scotland voted remain.... the vote was split 17/16

If you check - most fossils voted out - and they'll not live to see their folly

The crass stupidity of those voting out is beyond comprehension to me....

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 30, 2016, 09:29:14 AM
My 'problem' is posters who think 'BREXIT' has anything to do with Islam....

But thanks for demonstrating the depth of your 'knowledge'

Independent, guardian, telegraph and more UK news publications all report Cameron asking EU if UK can have more control over immigration issues. I'm challenged on this phone when it comes to cut and paste but you can Google it. Islamic people are a big part of the latest waves of immigration.

I understand the EU thought they'd be on the winning side of the vote so they offered little. If they give UK too much, more countries would be asking for more and undermine their authority. Part of the problem was increasing their authority to the point most people won't tolerate it. Soon they may be out of a job.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 09:30:07 AM

From my understanding, the "immigration" problem was from fellow EU countries with less than stellar economies.  Naturally, many would flock to a bigger economy that had more jobs.


If that is indeed true, Merkel making it mandatory that they continue allowing the same countries access to jobs would be a deal breaker for any fast exit.

Fellow EU countries that brought smarter, harder working employees than many lazy Brits with an entitlement attitude...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 09:33:26 AM
Independent, guardian, telegraph and more UK news publications all report Cameron asking EU if UK can have more control over immigration issues. I'm challenged on this phone when it comes to cut and paste but you can Google it. Islamic people are a big part of the latest waves of immigration.

I understand the EU thought they'd be on the winning side of the vote so they offered little. If they give UK too much, more countries would be asking for more and undermine their authority. Part of the problem was increasing their authority to the point most people won't tolerate it. Soon they may be out of a job.

BillyB

Do TRY and read before proving you don't... 

Followers of Islam do not tend to be EU citizens - who were the only folk that the UK can't - currently 'limit'

Migrants from Syria and Libya.... cannot 'get in' as the UK has already an opt out on the regulation to 'share' the problem

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 30, 2016, 09:52:37 AM
..And they will get their wish.... with Scotland leaving to become independent ...I suggest you look up 'little englander'

If you are 'learning' about Britain from the likes of the Express / Mail - then your 'deep understanding' is now understood  :D

A little exercise to prove your 'knowledge'..

Please explain how any Brexit will halt immigration from nations who are 'Muslim' ?

Which EU nation is majority 'Muslim' - or even 10 percent ..?

You DO realise that the EU has no say on UK immigration policy from nations outside the EU  ?

 :deadhorse:

Wo...Wo....Wo...woah. I have never claimed any "deep knowledge or understanding" apparently, unlike you. I have only watched the news and repeated what I have heard. You are attempting to shoot the messenger and it's sources because you don't like the message or outcome of Brexit.

Perception is reality whether you like it or not. The perception of Islam in England did contribute to the outcome. I don't care nor do I have a dog in that fight on UK immigration and the EU. Your attempt at a redherring is noted
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: treadmilldude on June 30, 2016, 09:57:16 AM
I usually agree with Bill on most things. On Brexit, I certainly agree with Bill, as it directly supports most of the articles I have read concerning the origins and reasons for a "Leave" Brexit vote. The reason for Brexit being successful with the UK voters had nothing to do with economics, nor immigration from EU immigrants. Rather, it had everything to do with mass immigration of Muslims into the UK, and the corresponding surge in Islamic terrorism that has resulted from it. The majority of UK citizens have clearly had it up to here with all of the problems caused by being overrun by this huge new influx of Muslims from Middle Eastern Countries.

http://www.billoreilly.com/video#play   Go to the bottom and click on page 2. Then find the video entitled "Bill O'Reilly Reacts to the Brexit" on 6-24-16

http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2016/06/28/bill-oreilly-open-borders-dont-work/

Europe is really in a Mell of a Hess with the pro-Muslim immigration policies supported by Merkel and Hollande. This is going to take many years for Europe to fix, if it can ever be fixed. The influx of Muslim immigrants clearly brings far more problems than positives with them into their newly adopted EU countries.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 30, 2016, 10:02:27 AM
BillyB

Do TRY and read before proving you don't... 

Followers of Islam do not tend to be EU citizens - who were the only folk that the UK can't - currently 'limit'

Migrants from Syria and Libya.... cannot 'get in' as the UK has already an opt out on the regulation to 'share' the problem


Moby, I think Billy and others are talking about Brussels forcing members to take on refugee quotas.


http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-commission-backs-visa-free-travel-for-turks-1462357287 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-commission-backs-visa-free-travel-for-turks-1462357287)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36202490

I wouldn't consider this situation as having control over immigration.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 30, 2016, 10:14:27 AM

Brass,

1/ the referendum was not about left / right   :deadhorse:

2/ tell us about the 'rebound' of the GBP

3/ or the rebound of the FSTE 250

I've never posted or suggested that the referendum was about left /right.

GBD is recovering quite nicely. Up around 3 pence [edit: since the 24th) however, USD is very strong right now as well so that factors.

 The FTSE 100 index is up 144.27 points or 2.27%, the FTSE 250 is up 183.09 points or 1.14% and the FTSE 350, index is up 63.14 or 1.81% as of this post.

And yet one more doom and gloom op-ed predicting the financial apocalypse doesn't really impress me.

The fact of the matter is no matter how loud the whingers gonna whinge - This ( last week) is as bad as it's gonna get for the UK...There'll be no end of the world, no falling into the sun, no British Isles sinking into the ocean no matter how loud the left wing media bleats.  ;)

Brass

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 10:41:19 AM

Perception is reality whether you like it or not. The perception of Islam in England did contribute to the outcome. I don't care nor do I have a dog in that fight on UK immigration and the EU. Your attempt at a redherring is noted

I have a deep mistrust of messengers  ;D

If the perception resulted in a Brexit vote - which had ZERO influence on Immigration from the likes of Syria, Libya, Afganistan, Iraq - then it says even more about the dubious success of the Brexit campaign instilling fear of events already subject to UK national immigration law that is irrelevant to EU  migration

You must forgive me, as I have NOT THE FAINTEST CLUE as to your 'red herring' .. no 'games' ..I just don't get why you would say such a thing ..




Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 10:48:50 AM
I usually agree with Bill on most things. On Brexit, I certainly agree with Bill, as it directly supports most of the articles I have read concerning the origins and reasons for a "Leave" Brexit vote. The reason for Brexit being successful with the UK voters had nothing to do with economics, nor immigration from EU immigrants. Rather, it had everything to do with mass immigration of Muslims into the UK,

Thanks for confirming you also are in favour of Brexit based on 'bollox' criteria ..

I have explained for a 5 year old's level of comprehension that voting out would not change the level of immigration of followers of Islam due to the UK's pre-existing opt out and the FACT that such nations aren't in the EU

Now if you are one of those bright sparks that would try to suggest ''Turkey will join'' ..I can only suggest you note

1/ UK is not a member of Schengen - so any deal that the EU might do would not affect the UK

2/ Turkey's accession would be torpedoed [ vetoed ] by several EU members

:deadhorse:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: treadmilldude on June 30, 2016, 10:56:22 AM
Moby, LiveFromUkraine just basically refuted your assertions that the UK does in fact have the ability to control immigration of Muslims from Muslim majority countries.

Here it is again:  ""Moby, I think Billy and others are talking about Brussels forcing members to take on refugee quotas.


http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-commission-backs-visa-free-travel-for-turks-1462357287

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36202490

I wouldn't consider this situation as having control over immigration. ""
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 11:01:48 AM
I've never posted or suggested that the referendum was about left /right.

Your words suggested otherwise .. please check the link below



http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=20940.msg435175#msg435175 (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=20940.msg435175#msg435175)


GBD is recovering quite nicely. Up around 3 pence [edit: since the 24th) however, USD is very strong right now as well so that factors.



I deal with Dollars, Euros and Roubles, Turkish Lira, Thai Bhat et al, regularly - so I know what I'm talking about, Brass..

I suggest you visit xe.com/ucc  (http://xe.com/ucc) try the 1 month graph for any of the above currencies and repeat for us - with a straight face your 'claim'


Here's the Euro one..


I hope you don't make a living 'betting' on your assertions  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 30, 2016, 11:47:38 AM
Your words suggested otherwise .. please check the link below

No, they do not. In your heightened state of emotionalism you've completely misread just about every post you've responded to today. It's very entertaining. ;D


http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=20940.msg435175#msg435175 (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=20940.msg435175#msg435175)


GBD is recovering quite nicely. Up around 3 pence [edit: since the 24th) however, USD is very strong right now as well so that factors.



I deal with Dollars, Euros and Roubles, Turkish Lira, Thai Bhat et al, regularly - so I know what I'm talking about, Brass..

I suggest you visit xe.com/ucc  (http://xe.com/ucc) try the 1 month graph for any of the above currencies and repeat for us - with a straight face your 'claim'


Here's the Euro one..


I hope you don't make a living 'betting' on your assertions  ;D



Well that is impressive seeing as you're the guy who posted you'd invested on a Brexit Remain vote elsewhere, right? Congratulations on your savvy money skills. :ROFL:

Don't fool yourself, Moby. Read my first post in this thread prior to the vote.

Even with my relatively short stay in the UK I gauged the mood of the UK people better than you did. ;)

Brass

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 30, 2016, 12:13:12 PM
Fellow EU countries that brought smarter, harder working employees than many lazy Brits with an entitlement attitude...

What are people like you but leeches always looking for the bigger better deal?

You feel no ties of kinship,  no common heritage?

 How did those Brits become lazy?

You just want to chuck them out on their head because they don't measure up to your standards?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 12:14:58 PM
No, they do not. In your heightened state of emotionalism you've completely misread just about every post you've responded to today. It's very entertaining. ;D


In your instance of denial - I cannot help you  :deadhorse:

Earlier I misunderstood LfU and he modified his post .... just to put your mischief into perspective


Now let's deal with shares

The FTSE 250 index - little heard of - but includes many more British companies - rather than multinationals that list here


It was 15 percent down - and has recovered some - today - only because 'our' Canadian Bank of England chief has suggested he will look at cutting interest rates - such was the hangover / shock at the Brexit vote and it's implications for industry



I readily admit not realising the [ mainly ] older voter was so stupid
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 12:28:21 PM
What are people like you but leeches always looking for the bigger better deal?

If entrepreneurial spirit = leach to you - so be it ....I live abroad most of the time, but paid UK taxes on the fruits of my investments during my working life..

As I said .... you'd do better to ask questions - as your estimation of my citizenship, lifestyle, etc., has been far from accurate

 
You feel no ties of kinship,  no common heritage?

Great ...a question ... I was once fervently British ... in   part of the world ... were my people were planted to outnumber the indigenous people.... Now, I'm older and wiser and patriotism is indeed the last vestige of a fool ..

Britain - like N.America and Australasia has benefited from immigration - the irony being that in the latter cases you were the migrants and when I hear calls to cap it I don't miss the irony   


 How did those Brits become lazy?

The possibility to avoid working legally and claim benefits....there are jobs that E.Europeans will do that not just Brits avoid ...I've seen it in Cyprus, Ireland and Greece....outside the EU in N.America and Russia. The access to such social benefits had been severely restricted to new EU arrivals and Cameron had negotiated a brake on new EU members - at least 7 years working in the UK without a work permit..

You just want to chuck them out on their head because they don't measure up to your standards?

WHAT are you imbibing ? Throw who out ...? I'm in favour of freedom of movement of labour within the EU

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 30, 2016, 01:16:51 PM
I have a deep mistrust of messengers  ;D

If the perception resulted in a Brexit vote - which had ZERO influence on Immigration from the likes of Syria, Libya, Afganistan, Iraq - then it says even more about the dubious success of the Brexit campaign instilling fear of events already subject to UK national immigration law that is irrelevant to EU  migration

You must forgive me, as I have NOT THE FAINTEST CLUE as to your 'red herring' .. no 'games' ..I just don't get why you would say such a thing ..

Simply, attack the message not the messenger.

The perception was of Islamic immigration as a whole. Losing British culture and worried that the EU was making Parliament irrelevant. Real or imagined, it is perception apparently to your average Brit and all for economic gain in the EU which apparently wasn't happening either.

Your redherring is you seemed to be accusatory toward me for remarks I never said et. al Syrian, Iraqi or Afghanistan immigration
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on June 30, 2016, 01:27:26 PM
Simply, attack the message not the messenger.


I see  - so you are a ''messenger'' that repeats nonsense  - proving you were as daft as any brexit voter - thinking stopping EU migration would cut out immigration from Turkey , Syria, etc.

It's just that I'm waiting for someone to tell me which EU nation has a more than 10, 9, 8, 7, perhaps even 6 percent population that are 'followers of Islam'..


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on June 30, 2016, 02:02:08 PM
BillyB

Do TRY and read before proving you don't... 

Followers of Islam do not tend to be EU citizens - who were the only folk that the UK can't - currently 'limit'

Migrants from Syria and Libya.... cannot 'get in' as the UK has already an opt out on the regulation to 'share' the problem

Cameron having to ask permission from the EU to allow UK to have more control over UKs immigration policies is enough for me to understand you don't have sufficient control over your own borders. You can repeat yourself a thousand times immigration is not an issue pertaining to Brexit. Won't change my mind.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on June 30, 2016, 02:06:04 PM


I see  - so you are a ''messenger'' that repeats nonsense  - proving you were as daft as any brexit voter - thinking stopping EU migration would cut out immigration from Turkey , Syria, etc.

Well there you go again attacking me rather than what I said. You really do not know the difference, do you?
I can see that it's nonsense to you because it's opposing to what you state and believe. However, you offer nothing to oppose it rather than "you are daft for repeating nonsense".  You can't recognize it or help yourself.

Quote
It's just that I'm waiting for someone to tell me which EU nation has a more than 10, 9, 8, 7, perhaps even 6 percent population that are 'followers of Islam'..

Seriously, I have no interest in answering your question. But, at Germany's current rate of immigration they will have well more than that before years end. France I understand has curbed theirs. Immigration suggestions were being issued from from Brussels. Seriously, what does it matter. Do you refute that there is mass immigration of Muslims into Europe?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on June 30, 2016, 02:10:27 PM

In your instance of denial - I cannot help you  :deadhorse:

Earlier I misunderstood LfU and he modified his post .... just to put your mischief into perspective


Now let's deal with shares

The FTSE 250 index - little heard of - but includes many more British companies - rather than multinationals that list here


It was 15 percent down - and has recovered some - today - only because 'our' Canadian Bank of England chief has suggested he will look at cutting interest rates - such was the hangover / shock at the Brexit vote and it's implications for industry



I readily admit not realising the [ mainly ] older voter was so stupid

And all three FTSE indexes will continue to rebound as will Sterling. Just don't expect GBD to rise to the spike the day before the referendum as it was purposely driven up.

It's the Euro that will remain depressed. You were deriding the Express article earlier however several papers are also reporting similar versions of the same story...

Brexit contagion: UK vote raises fears of a tsunami of EU membership referendums

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/brexit-contagion-uk-vote-raises-fears-of-a-tsunami-of-eu-members/

Factor in the Pew survey linked up thread and the Euro might make good table coasters, bookmark or conversation piece in a year or two. ;D

You calling the majority of the UK voters stupid says more about you than you're saying about them. A great many of the those older people you call stupid took part in the original referendum that supported the UK remaining in the EEC (forerunner to the EU) in the first place. Were they stupid then?  ... Or has living with the EU for forty some odd years given them some understanding of why they voted Exit this time?

Brass

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 30, 2016, 04:12:44 PM
I usually agree with Bill on most things. On Brexit, I certainly agree with Bill, as it directly supports most of the articles I have read concerning the origins and reasons for a "Leave" Brexit vote. The reason for Brexit being successful with the UK voters had nothing to do with economics, nor immigration from EU immigrants. Rather, it had everything to do with mass immigration of Muslims into the UK, and the corresponding surge in Islamic terrorism that has resulted from it. The majority of UK citizens have clearly had it up to here with all of the problems caused by being overrun by this huge new influx of Muslims from Middle Eastern Countries.

http://www.billoreilly.com/video#play (http://www.billoreilly.com/video#play)   Go to the bottom and click on page 2. Then find the video entitled "Bill O'Reilly Reacts to the Brexit" on 6-24-16

http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2016/06/28/bill-oreilly-open-borders-dont-work/ (http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2016/06/28/bill-oreilly-open-borders-dont-work/)

Europe is really in a Mell of a Hess with the pro-Muslim immigration policies supported by Merkel and Hollande. This is going to take many years for Europe to fix, if it can ever be fixed. The influx of Muslim immigrants clearly brings far more problems than positives with them into their newly adopted EU countries.


No, I disagree with this.  Muslims are not leaving other EU countries to settle in the UK.  It is East Europeans, mostly Catholic Poles and Orthodox Romanians, who have moved in great numbers to the UK.  They are labourers, and undercut British labourers.  It is akin to Mexicans taking construction jobs from American workers. 


Poles who live in the UK can receive benefits for their children left behind in Poland.  So, Dad moves to the UK to work, is paying taxes, and his kids back in Gdansk with his wife receive childcare benefits, because Dad is paying taxes in the UK.  That was one irritant.  The other is families moving and the pressure that puts on building sufficient schools and hospitals for them.


UKIP used the mass migration of last year and this summer in their Brexit campaign, and it probably played a role.  But most of those migrants won't have EU citizenship for about a decade, if ever.  So, they would not have the right as EU citizens to move to the UK in any event.  Furthermore, if they are living in Sweden, or Austria, or Germany, they aren't going to move to the UK.  Their EU migration issue is with the less developed economies of Eastern Europe.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 30, 2016, 04:19:13 PM
Moby, LiveFromUkraine just basically refuted your assertions that the UK does in fact have the ability to control immigration of Muslims from Muslim majority countries.

Here it is again:  ""Moby, I think Billy and others are talking about Brussels forcing members to take on refugee quotas.


http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-commission-backs-visa-free-travel-for-turks-1462357287 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-commission-backs-visa-free-travel-for-turks-1462357287)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36202490 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36202490)

I wouldn't consider this situation as having control over immigration. ""


The U.K. (and Ireland and Denmark) are not subject to the EU's asylum system.  This was an issue for Eastern Europe, not the U.K.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on June 30, 2016, 05:17:53 PM

It is East Europeans, mostly Catholic Poles and Orthodox Romanians, who have moved in great numbers to the UK.


The Poles have been working in the UK for decades. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgRO15muX78
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 30, 2016, 05:30:18 PM

The U.K. (and Ireland and Denmark) are not subject to the EU's asylum system.  This was an issue for Eastern Europe, not the U.K.


You're right Bo.  I'm embarrassed to say I missed that part of the article I posted.  I did read that Cameron was worried that the UK would face more pressure to take in more if they stayed.


I do think the idea of fining countries to push more refugees may add to more countries leaving.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on June 30, 2016, 06:16:49 PM
So what, people who voted for Brexit can't see 5-8 years into the future when naturalized Muslims will be demanding to be let into Britain?  This is getting silly.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on June 30, 2016, 06:41:09 PM
Currently, there are approximately 4.3 million Muslims in Germany, 4.7 million in France, 2.3 million in Italy, and 1 million in the Netherlands.    They haven't stampeded their way to the UK, so why would there be a sudden change?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 30, 2016, 06:50:43 PM
Currently, there are approximately 4.3 million Muslims in Germany, 4.7 million in France, 2.3 million in Italy, and 1 million in the Netherlands.    They haven't stampeded their way to the UK, so why would there be a sudden change?


The Muslims are waiting to gain more numbers and then will launch a full frontal attack.   :P 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on June 30, 2016, 07:00:49 PM
The Muslims are waiting to gain more numbers and then will launch a full frontal attack.  :P
If they hired Bulgarian wrapper artist Christo Vladimirov Javacheff to do across the Channel what he did on our Lake Iseo a couple of weeks ago, it would just be a walk-over ;D.

(http://www.donnecultura.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Arte-Christo-Laho-diseo.jpg#ActualImage)
Christo's floating piers (3.5 Km long)
View from a drone:
http://www.ilmattino.it/societa/piaceri/spettacolari_immagini_passerella_christo_vista_drone-1824496.html
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on June 30, 2016, 07:07:42 PM
If they hired Bulgarian wrapper artist Christo Vladimirov Javacheff to do across the Channel what he did on our Lake Iseo a couple of weeks ago, it would just be a walk-over ;D .


Christo's floating piers (3.5 Km long)




That is pretty neat Sandro. 

Here is a youtube video I found of it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1LPzyemKiM

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on June 30, 2016, 07:23:34 PM
That is pretty neat Sandro. 
And nobody's drowned - yet :D.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on July 01, 2016, 12:22:04 AM
Cameron having to ask permission from the EU to allow UK to have more control over UKs immigration policies is enough for me to understand you don't have sufficient control over your own borders. You can repeat yourself a thousand times immigration is not an issue pertaining to Brexit. Won't change my mind.

BillyB, your inattentiveness in reading is becoming a serious issue to comprehension...

I never claimed that immigration wasn't the key issue ....


I AM stating the voting 'BREXIT' wouldn't stop non EU migrants - as we already control migration from there...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on July 01, 2016, 08:49:56 AM


I never claimed that immigration wasn't the key issue ....

 

« Replyby:  msmobyone  #314 on: Yesterday at 08:11:59 AM » My 'problem' is posters who think 'BREXIT' has anything to do with Islam....


Let's go in circles ....
Massive immigration by Muslims equaled problems for British citizens :popcorn:
 

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on July 01, 2016, 09:36:23 AM
« Replyby:  msmobyone  #314 on: Yesterday at 08:11:59 AM »
  • Quote (http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?action=post;quote=435296;topic=20940.300;last_msg=435387)
My 'problem' is posters who think 'BREXIT' has anything to do with Islam....


Let's go in circles ....
Massive immigration by Muslims equaled problems for British citizens :popcorn:

More like a bunch of folk that want to blame their own problems on someone else.  Does the title of 'British citizen' exclude Muslims?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on July 01, 2016, 09:51:02 AM
  Does the title of 'British citizen' exclude Muslims?

Because you just show up in a country automatically makes you a citizen of this country?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on July 01, 2016, 10:15:35 AM
Because you just show up in a country automatically makes you a citizen of this country?

Of course not silly.. Does your passport show your religion?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: tfcrew on July 01, 2016, 10:19:58 AM
Changed the subject.
It was about citizenship not passports.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Slumba on July 01, 2016, 10:33:22 AM
More like a bunch of folk that want to blame their own problems on someone else.  Does the title of 'British citizen' exclude Muslims?

Actually under the law in the respective countries it does. 

Muslims who are faithful to Islam, cannot be considered loyal British subjects, nor American citizens.  They are by definition traitors and subversives, since their faith commands that the current political system be replaced with Sharia and a theocracy.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 01, 2016, 11:27:28 AM
BillyB, your inattentiveness in reading is becoming a serious issue to comprehension...

I never claimed that immigration wasn't the key issue ....


I AM stating the voting 'BREXIT' wouldn't stop non EU migrants - as we already control migration from there...

I'm starting to believe it is you that is uneducated and a sore loser. Cameron asked EU for more control over UK immigration. You can believe it won't stop EU migrants all you want. For the rest of us and Cameron more control means more control to do things any way UK wants. How difficult is that to understand? If you and EU understood that and reacted appropriately you may still be in the EU. Too little too late. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on July 01, 2016, 12:01:40 PM
Currently, there are approximately 4.3 million Muslims in Germany, 4.7 million in France, 2.3 million in Italy, and 1 million in the Netherlands.    They haven't stampeded their way to the UK, so why would there be a sudden change?

The Muslims stay out of the UK because they have been informed about the insipid food and the requirement to queue.  LOL

Serious question - Is the financial aid and other support  given to refugees determined by individual countries?  If not an EU edict, does the support vary among the different EU nations, i. e. does Germany spend more money per individual refugee than UK.   BTW, who pays for taking care of the newly arriving refugees while in Greece? 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on July 01, 2016, 12:49:21 PM
Actually under the law in the respective countries it does. 

Muslims who are faithful to Islam, cannot be considered loyal British subjects, nor American citizens.  They are by definition traitors and subversives, since their faith commands that the current political system be replaced with Sharia and a theocracy.

What a load of BS.  Not even worth compiling a more elaborate response.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Изумруд on July 01, 2016, 02:36:45 PM

Excellent analysis again form Professor of Law, Michael Dougan, on the UK's position post referendum.  Boe, you may find this interesting as a lawyer:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dosmKwrAbI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dosmKwrAbI)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on July 01, 2016, 06:53:30 PM
Excellent analysis again form Professor of Law, Michael Dougan, on the UK's position post referendum.  Boe, you may find this interesting as a lawyer:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dosmKwrAbI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dosmKwrAbI)

Thank you. That was interesting, as was the earlier link, though by the time I had watched it all, it was too late to comment.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 01, 2016, 08:46:08 PM
Excellent analysis again form Professor of Law, Michael Dougan, on the UK's position post referendum.  Boe, you may find this interesting as a lawyer:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dosmKwrAbI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dosmKwrAbI)

Good thing that guy doesn't have the final say. He'd label the referendum constitutionally illegal and throw everybody's vote out to get the results he wants. He is right on some things UK has veto power and a country like Turkey can't get in the EU without Uk permission but Michael doesn't seem to understand the EU doesn't revolve around the UK world. UK is part of the EU world and must compromise on a regular basis. Vetoing everything will get UK on the shit list. Let's say most EU members approach UK and say getting Turkey into the EU is very important to them and what do you want. For UK to get some things they want they've got to do things they don't want. Brexit voters understand that.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 01, 2016, 10:59:00 PM
I AM stating the voting 'BREXIT' wouldn't stop non EU migrants - as we already control migration from there...

msmobyone, in article below Cameron tell EU leaders in his final Brussels summit they must offer UK more control over immigration and freedom of movement was at the heart of UK citizens rejecting the EU. Even Cameron agrees UK doesn't have total control over immigration.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/28/cameron-eu-leaders-uk-control-immigration
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Изумруд on July 02, 2016, 05:41:04 AM
Good thing that guy doesn't have the final say. He'd label the referendum constitutionally illegal and throw everybody's vote out to get the results he wants. He is right on some things UK has veto power and a country like Turkey can't get in the EU without Uk permission but Michael doesn't seem to understand the EU doesn't revolve around the UK world. UK is part of the EU world and must compromise on a regular basis. Vetoing everything will get UK on the shit list. Let's say most EU members approach UK and say getting Turkey into the EU is very important to them and what do you want. For UK to get some things they want they've got to do things they don't want. Brexit voters understand that.

Michael Dougan:  "He has provided written evidence to various Parliamentary enquiries; appeared as an expert witness before the House of Commons European Scrutiny Committee and the House of Lords European Union Committee; and acted as an external advisor to Government departments on important developments - including discussions about the enactment of the European Union Act 2011 as well as the ongoing Review of the Balance of Competences Between the UK and the EU".

http://www.liverpool.ac.uk/law/staff/michael-dougan/


So I would say he has a much better understanding of how things work there than you or I Biily, yes?

Why would he label it constitutionally illegal? A referendum isn't legal until ratified by parliament.   However, the people have voted and it would be political suicide to go down this route; it would have serious implications for democracy in the UK, which is why he pointed out that the whole democratic landscape of the last 40 years in the UK has been turned upside down by: "lies on an industrial scale".   

It's now a week since the referendum and Farage and ID Smith have been caught out lying about their £350m a week promise to the NHS; of course, this was a promise that they could never keep.  Btw, you must have missed his comment on Farage when he thought Remain were going to win; so it works BOTH ways.  The people have voted out so now it's up to those politicians who so vehemently pursued Leave, to formulate a strategy that should already have been in place for such an eventuality.  That it is quite evidently not, is a serious indictment against all those involved.  Subsequently, we have a government [and its rival party] in total chaos and all of them at this present time reluctant to trigger Article 50.

 Maybe this clip will be more to your liking:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcXf1Fz5Fw4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcXf1Fz5Fw4)




Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 02, 2016, 09:29:45 AM
Michael Dougan:  "He has provided written evidence to various Parliamentary enquiries; appeared as an expert witness before the House of Commons European Scrutiny Committee and the House of Lords European Union Committee; and acted as an external advisor to Government departments on important developments - including discussions about the enactment of the European Union Act 2011 as well as the ongoing Review of the Balance of Competences Between the UK and the EU".

http://www.liverpool.ac.uk/law/staff/michael-dougan/


So I would say he has a much better understanding of how things work there than you or I Biily, yes?


There are a lot of "experts" out there but they don't control my votes. Like I mention up thread, a lot of "expert" economists say UK leaving EU is a bad thing but none of them say EU is a good thing for America to join. Also I pointed out Greenland leaving EU in the 80's and they haven't come pounding on EU's door to get back in. Whether UK does better alone than answer to masters in Brussels depends on the UK. If UK wants to be lazy like Greece, it's best they stay in the EU so that others can pull it's weight.

Why would he label it constitutionally illegal?


Because he's an constitutional attorney with an interest of having UK stay in the EU. If he preferred Brexit, you wouldn't be watching that video. How many constitutional attorneys that prefer Brexit are making videos saying the referendum was illegal? None.

We got all kinds of "expert" attorneys in America that fight over what our Constitution says all the time. It will never end because those "experts", who know it all, can't agree what the law says.

It's now a week since the referendum and Farage and ID Smith have been caught out lying about their £350m a week promise to the NHS; of course, this was a promise that they could never keep.


Don't like liars? You're lucky you don't have to deal with Hillary Clinton. I looked up that number and 350 million pounds is close to what UK has to send to the EU but the EU gives them a rebate so the UK actually sends EU closer to 250 million pounds a week. Politicians failed to mention the rebate. Politicians on the other side of the fence called them liars but failed to say they are still paying big time to the EU. In 32 years UK never got back more than it paid in. Other countries did including France and Germany. The bureaucracy in Brussels must be funded too. One reason UK gets punished more than other EU nations is because they have a better performing economy. Being a member of the EU, UK will be a victim of their own success. Here are the links I read.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/may/23/does-the-eu-really-cost-the-uk-350m-a-week

http://fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11184605/Explainer-Why-must-Britain-pay-1.7bn-to-the-European-Union-and-can-we-stop-it-happening.html

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2052433/Chart-How-does-Britain-pay-EU-does-back.html

http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/economic/how-much-do-we-give-the-eu-and-how-much-do-we-get-back/9099.article
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on July 02, 2016, 08:42:33 PM
but the Romans still had garrison units and representatives of Rome in 'Britannia'. It was those garrisons that were eventually overpowered and ousted along with the remaining Roman government.
Your source (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Roman_rule_in_Britain)   appears to imply that those garrisons, if any, were very few and far between at the time that Roman magistrates - i.e. civilians - were "kicked out" ;).

Anyway, the Britons proved far less successful not long later against the Angli, Saxons et al., and were pushed into the least desirable pieces of Britannia's real estate - Cornwall and Wales. Some even crossed the Channel and fled to Brittany, as the toponym suggests.

The Anglo-Saxons, too, had considerable difficulties subsequently with the Danes on several occasions, ultimately:
Quote
In the 11th century, there were three conquests and some Anglo-Saxon people would live through it: one in the aftermath of the conquest of Cnut in 1016; the second after the unsuccessful attempt of battle of Stamford Bridge in 1066; the third after that of William of Normandy in 1066.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxons

After the Normal-English kings finally ceased to be obsessed with conquests/re-conquests in France - 100 years of Plantagenet wars against the French Valois kings, 1337 to 1453  - the major threat of Spanish invasion in 1588 was repulsed by the RN (and foul weather ;D). Although...
Quote
The strategic aim was to overthrow Queen Elizabeth I of England and the Tudor establishment of Protestantism in England, with the expectation that this would put a stop to English interference in the Spanish Netherlands and to the harm caused to Spanish interests by English and Dutch privateering.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Armada

rather than a conquest of the island.

After that, IINM no other attempts for 200+ years until Napoleon's - thwarted by the RN - and Hitler's some 150 years later - thwarted by the RAF.

Thus, your assertion of Briton/English/British century-long stout opposition to invasion by foreigners has a few holes in it :D.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on July 03, 2016, 05:20:02 AM
...Also I pointed out Greenland leaving EU in the 80's and they haven't come pounding on EU's door to get back in. Whether UK does better alone than answer to masters in Brussels depends on the UK. If UK wants to be lazy like Greece, it's best they stay in the EU so that others can pull it's weight.

Billy, you're being deliberately obscure with the facts here.  Greenland is not a sovereign country - it is a self-governing territory of Denmark, rather like Puerto Rico and Guam are still part of the USA.  Greenland left the EU in a dispute over fishing rights - one single issue which concerned their only real source of income.  It had never wanted to be part of the EU in the first place, but had no choice when Denmark voted to join the EU in 1973.  You cannot possibly equate their decision with Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on July 03, 2016, 08:29:29 AM
Your source (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Roman_rule_in_Britain)   appears to imply that those garrisons, if any, were very few and far between at the time that Roman magistrates - i.e. civilians - were "kicked out" ;).

I'm not sure what you're point is, Sandro.

This is what I posted...

Quote
These are a proud people and as a society stubborn as hell...They kicked the Romans out. ...

Pretty well every historical record/timeline confirms that statement...

Timeline of Roman Britain

AD 407 - The remaining Roman garrisons in Britain proclaim one of their generals, Constantine III, Emperor of the Western Roman Empire. Constantine quickly pulls together a force and crosses the English Channel to invade Gaul, leaving Britain with only a skeleton force to defend itself.

AD 409 - After throwing off their allegiance to Constantine III in 408, the local British populace expel the final remnants of Roman authority in 409.

http://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Timeline-of-Roman-Britain/

  Timeline of Roman Britain - Britannia.com

..."409 - Prosper, in his chronicle, says, "in the fifteenth year of Honorius and Arcadius (409), on account of the languishing state of the Romans, the strength of the Britons was brought to a desperate pass." Under enormous pressure, Britons take matters into their own hands, expelling weak Roman officials and fighting for themselves."...

http://www.britannia.com/history/romantime.html

Anyway, the Britons proved far less successful not long later against the Angli, Saxons et al., and were pushed into the least desirable pieces of Britannia's real estate - Cornwall and Wales. Some even crossed the Channel and fled to Brittany, as the toponym suggests.

The Anglo-Saxons, too, had considerable difficulties subsequently with the Danes on several occasions, ultimately:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxons

After the Normal-English kings finally ceased to be obsessed with conquests/re-conquests in France - 100 years of Plantagenet wars against the French Valois kings, 1337 to 1453  - the major threat of Spanish invasion in 1588 was repulsed by the RN (and foul weather ;D). Although...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Armada

rather than a conquest of the island.

After that, IINM no other attempts for 200+ years until Napoleon's - thwarted by the RN - and Hitler's some 150 years later - thwarted by the RAF.

Thus, your assertion of Briton/English/British century-long stout opposition to invasion by foreigners has a few holes in it :D.

You and I don't  seem to have the same interpretation of what I originally posted. Here it is again...

Quote
They kept the continental Kings and Emperors off the British Isles for 13 centuries and held on for years against an overwhelming German military force some might argue twice through two world wars in the 20th century

I'm a little perplexed by your final paragraph (my bolded) in that - other than  my obvious oversight in forgetting the Norman Dynasty pointed out by ML - the points you bring forth, although no doubt interesting as discussion within themselves, don't actually contradict what I've posted. 

Maybe you could elaborate?  :)

Brass



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Gator on July 03, 2016, 08:49:36 AM
If they hired Bulgarian wrapper artist Christo Vladimirov Javacheff to do across the Channel what he did on our Lake Iseo a couple of weeks ago, it would just be a walk-over ;D.

(http://www.donnecultura.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Arte-Christo-Laho-diseo.jpg#ActualImage)
Christo's floating piers (3.5 Km long)

I watched a PBS program about Christo's floating bridges.  Fascinating, both in the art expression and the engineering.   The glorious backdrop of green mountains, picturesque villages, and glacier carved lakes is somehow enhanced  by yellow, linear bridges.


Christo is a very energetic 80+ yo artist.  He explained how important it was in an artistic sense to obtain regulatory safety approval for eliminating bannisters. 

What was the public opinion?  Critical opinion? Did you go for a walk on the water, Sandro?  Not far  from Milan; however, the masterpiece will be dismantled after only 16 days. 

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Brasscasing on July 03, 2016, 09:21:22 AM
(http://www.ft.com/fastft/files/2016/07/FTSE.png)

(http://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2016/07/01/16/ftse-100-post-brexit.jpeg)

(http://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2016/07/01/16/ftse-250-post-brexit.jpeg)

Not a bad week for a post Brexit apocalyptic world, eh? :P

Sterling finished the week down by 0.57% (less than 1%). That's not bad.

The rally continues. ;)

Brass 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 03, 2016, 01:34:25 PM
Billy, you're being deliberately obscure with the facts here.  Greenland is not a sovereign country - it is a self-governing territory of Denmark, rather like Puerto Rico and Guam are still part of the USA.  Greenland left the EU in a dispute over fishing rights - one single issue which concerned their only real source of income.  It had never wanted to be part of the EU in the first place, but had no choice when Denmark voted to join the EU in 1973.  You cannot possibly equate their decision with Brexit.

Greenland left the EU and doesn't feel the need to come pounding on the door to get back in. EU was bitter about their decision and is now having to pay cash to Greenland for those fishing rights, rights they would otherwise have if Greenland stayed in the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on July 03, 2016, 01:38:17 PM
You've heard it here first, the Queen of UK (and various other places) agrees with 2tallbill.

The Queen urges Britain to calm down and tells MSPs they should feel 'hope and optimism'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/02/the-queen-urges-britain-to-calm-down-and-allow-time-for-quiet-th/

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: SANDRO43 on July 03, 2016, 04:42:59 PM
Did you go for a walk on the water, Sandro?
I often walk on water but only when nobody's around, I don't want to suffer a retinue of followers expecting free bread and fish ;D.

Seriously, Christo's work has attracted 1.3 million visitors in 2 weeks :o and created some serious  logistic problems: trains/buses to the locaìtion filled to capacity and, IINM, one has to queue for long hours before being admitted to the floating piers.

Not my cup of tea, and I've been to Iseo before, in quieter times when it's more enjoyable ;).
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Faux Pas on July 03, 2016, 06:00:11 PM
I often walk on water but only when nobody's around, I don't want to suffer a retinue of followers expecting free bread and fish ;D.


Never mind the wine  :D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on July 03, 2016, 06:13:13 PM
Looks like Obama was just joking about back of the queue for the UK.   :P


As I said before, if it is in our interest, we will make deals with the UK.  Glad to see Obama agreed with me. 

Quote

So it took many by surprise when, after Britain's referendum, the White House said the U.S. might still pursue a one-off deal with Britain, but it simply might take longer given the legwork that's already been done on the broader EU deal. Secretary of State John Kerry even said that Obama planned to pursue both deals "at the same time."

http://www.yahoo.com/news/seeking-post-brexit-calm-obama-062221483.html (http://www.yahoo.com/news/seeking-post-brexit-calm-obama-062221483.html)


I also read the corporate tax rate may be cut to 15 percent from 25.  Man, I wish the US could leave the EU as well.  haha
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on July 03, 2016, 06:39:19 PM
Greenland left the EU and doesn't feel the need to come pounding on the door to get back in. EU was bitter about their decision and is now having to pay cash to Greenland for those fishing rights, rights they would otherwise have if Greenland stayed in the EU.

Like I said - what's that got to do with Brexit?  Two totally different scenarios.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 03, 2016, 08:57:40 PM
Like I said - what's that got to do with Brexit?


Greenland didn't like the fishing regulations and ban of using seal skins EU imposed on them. They left, they're doing fine and haven't asked to come back. Many citizens in the UK didn't like the EU having some control over their immigration.

Two totally different scenarios.

Control is the issue in both scenarios. They're in the same boat now. Independent.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on July 03, 2016, 09:04:59 PM

Can't you see, Kiwi, that a country with a population of 56,000, almost 90% of whom are Inuit living traditional lives, is completely analagous to 64 million Brits presiding over the ninth largest economy in the world?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 03, 2016, 09:22:15 PM
Can't you see, Kiwi, that a country with a population of 56,000, almost 90% of whom are Inuit living traditional lives, is completely analagous to 64 million Brits presiding over the ninth largest economy in the world?

Give it a few more years and Kiwi will see nations of various populations, economies and interests quitting the EU and won't pound the door to get back in.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on July 04, 2016, 04:11:46 AM
Can't you see, Kiwi, that a country with a population of 56,000, almost 90% of whom are Inuit living traditional lives, is completely analagous to 64 million Brits presiding over the ninth largest economy in the world?

It is often surprising how anomaly and tangentiality are often used around here to substantiate or establish a rule.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on July 04, 2016, 08:26:30 AM
Can't you see, Kiwi, that a country with a population of 56,000, almost 90% of whom are Inuit living traditional lives, is completely analagous to 64 million Brits presiding over the ninth largest economy in the world?

It is often surprising how anomaly and tangentiality are often used around here to substantiate or establish a rule.

My bad!  :'(  How could I be so stupid as to not realise that everyone in the UK took such a good, long look at Greenland's situation, and then decided to say: "Oh, stuff the EU - let's follow Greenland into this brave new world of going it alone.  It's worked for them, so it MUST work for us too!  They might be a bit annoyed, though, if we try selling fish in the same markets.  But who cares?  We'll just spend the next ten years figuring out some kind of a trade deal with Greenland.  What's that?  What do you mean - they're not a country?  They're part of DENMARK????"  :devil:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 04, 2016, 08:52:33 AM
My bad!  :'(  How could I be so stupid as to not realise that everyone in the UK took such a good, long look at Greenland's situation, and then decided to say: "Oh, stuff the EU - let's follow Greenland into this brave new world of going it alone.


You're at the point in this debate of making stuff up. Nobody in this thread said UK wanted to follow Greenland. Greenland was used as an example ONLY because people on your side of the fence say EU is so wonderful and the sky will fall for the UK. Did Greenland fall? No, as a matter of fact, they continued to change their laws to get away from Demark too and are able to rule themselves.

It is often surprising how anomaly and tangentiality are often used around here to substantiate or establish a rule.

Kiwi is making a mountain out of a mole hill when it simply comes down to the increasing control EU has over its members. Control over immigration isn't the only issue UK has with EU. See those charts I supplied earlier? UK has to pay the EU 248 million pounds each week after rebates are factored in. If America were to join the EU, we'd probably have to pay billions each week for them to tell us how to handle our affairs. We're going to see more nations quit the EU unless the EU lets it members have more control over their own affairs. We now have Greenland and the UK to prove the sky won't fall leaving the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on July 04, 2016, 09:36:49 AM
http://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

But yeah.. just like any club with benefits you pay dues to belong.  What the EU receives is also spent for improvements to help standardize living quality throughout EU including poorer nations.  Like roads, community improvements, historical / cultural projects, research projects and healthcare facilities etc etc.  It also helps level the playing field for businesses.  A country with a poor transport system or roads might get more support to build up to date facilities allowing them to compete and bring their goods to market.

Here in EU the citizens don't pay taxes directly like in the US.  In the US, individual citizens pay federal taxes to the IRS.  In EU the taxes are paid by the member countries.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 04, 2016, 10:34:29 AM
http://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

But yeah.. just like any club with benefits you pay dues to belong.  What the EU receives is also spent for improvements to help standardize living quality throughout EU including poorer nations.  Like roads, community improvements, historical / cultural projects, research projects and healthcare facilities etc etc.  It also helps level the playing field for businesses.  A country with a poor transport system or roads might get more support to build up to date facilities allowing them to compete and bring their goods to market.


Taking from the rich and giving to the poor was acceptable to the UK years ago when the taking and giving was within reason but according to the link, the UK was to give much more in the last few years than in previous years. People began to see what they get for what they pay isn't worth it. That and what people view as reckless immigration policies by the EU during a messy Syrian war has tipped the scales in favor of Brexit. the vote was close and didn't have to end this way but EU refused to budge on their position. In a way I don't blame them. If they give the UK what they want, other nations will try to get more too chipping away their authority. They gambled and someday they may not have any authority. The EU also has to realize they work for the people and must provide them with good value for the money they give or lose their customers.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: sparky114 on July 04, 2016, 10:39:26 AM
We have had 40 years of the the union only time will tell what happens next, we have not walked this path before

nobody said it will be easy, the markets will fluctuates wait and see when when Article 50 gets implemented

but one plus that commodities are up

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on July 04, 2016, 10:53:18 AM
Taking from the rich and giving to the poor was acceptable to the UK years ago when the taking and giving was within reason but according to the link, the UK was to give much more in the last few years than in previous years. People began to see what they get for what they pay isn't worth it. That and what people view as reckless immigration policies by the EU during a messy Syrian war has tipped the scales in favor of Brexit. the vote was close and didn't have to end this way but EU refused to budge on their position. In a way I don't blame them. If they give the UK what they want, other nations will try to get more too chipping away their authority. They gambled and someday they may not have any authority. The EU also has to realize they work for the people and must provide them with good value for the money they give or lose their customers.

Does the USG not also tax citizens and build highways and bridges, support research, subsidize housing for the poor etc etc?

I really don't see much difference between the EU and US 'systems'...  they are both a union of states after all,.

http://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700/
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on July 04, 2016, 06:30:47 PM
You're at the point in this debate of making stuff up. Nobody in this thread said UK wanted to follow Greenland. Greenland was used as an example ONLY because people on your side of the fence say EU is so wonderful and the sky will fall for the UK. Did Greenland fall? No, as a matter of fact, they continued to change their laws to get away from Demark too and are able to rule themselves.

What do you mean - "your side of the fence?"  You're the one making stuff up - I haven't expressed any opinion one way or the other.  As for Greenland, they don't rule themselves.  Although an autonomous country within the Danish Realm, it is still ruled by Denmark, although more and more responsibility is being devolved by the central government as Greenland becomes more self-sufficient.

Look it up.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 04, 2016, 09:02:13 PM
I really don't see much difference between the EU and US 'systems'...  they are both a union of states after all,.


I see a lot of difference. According to your link in a previous post, UK paid around 1.5 billion pounds after rebates to the EU in 2001. They paid 11 billion pounds after rebates to the EU in 2013. You don't see those alarming increases for any one state in America.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on July 05, 2016, 12:26:21 AM
I'm starting to believe it is you that is uneducated and a sore loser. Cameron asked EU for more control over UK immigration. You can believe it won't stop EU migrants all you want. For the rest of us and Cameron more control means more control to do things any way UK wants. How difficult is that to understand? If you and EU understood that and reacted appropriately you may still be in the EU. Too little too late.

 :D

BillyB

I readily admit to being a sore loser .. and you keep proving 'we' lost to folk like you who simply didn't understand what they were voting for..

I'll REALLY try and make it simple for you .... Cameron was trying to reduce the appeal to EU migrants - by doing a deal to lengthen the time before social benefits could be claimed.... the right of freedom of movement of EU citizens is enshrined in EU membership.



Umpteenth time ..
the UK has already laws restricting non EU immigration - successful applicants need to be sponsored - or be very rich

I never stated leaving wouldn't stop EU migration .... it will - but not before a HUGE rush to 'get in' - before we 'pull up the drawbridge' ... The 'leave' lot just realised that and are panicking ..

I DID say ILLEGAL immigration will go through the roof ..



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on July 05, 2016, 12:31:42 AM


Let's go in circles ....
Massive immigration by Muslims equaled problems for British citizens :popcorn:

We are going in circles because EU migrants - don't tend to be followers of Islam ....  :deadhorse:

You - like BillyB - simply can't absorb fact.... the UK already controlled immigration from non EU nations
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on July 05, 2016, 02:41:17 AM
I see a lot of difference. According to your link in a previous post, UK paid around 1.5 billion pounds after rebates to the EU in 2001. They paid 11 billion pounds after rebates to the EU in 2013. You don't see those alarming increases for any one state in America.

Billy,

Really, I was just pointing out that the principles involved were the same.  But ok, you feel UK is getting screwed..  lets check it out.

The EU budget is around 145 billion EUR.. or 160 billion USD at current exchange rates.  This amount is 40 billion less than the federal tax revenue from NY, maybe equal or even less than that of the NYC metro area.  In GDP terms, that equates to less than 1% for EU and a little over 16% for the US.  This just to put the EU budget contributions into perspective.

http://europa.eu/pol/financ/index_en.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_tax_revenue_by_state

In terms of GNI (Gross national Income) which is a figure usually a bit higher than GDP, the UK pays the lowest rate of all EU countries due to their rebate.. a little over half than the average... -maybe.

(http://s32.postimg.org/6drvdk7h1/2016_07_05_09_56_20.jpg)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8036097.stm#start

But "WAIT!!" you say... "that's from 2007.. "

Well the latest I could find was for 2014

(http://s32.postimg.org/cfakpn6z9/2016_07_05_10_24_33.jpg)
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Who-pays-for-the-EU-and-how-much-does-it-cost-the-UK-Disentangling-fact-from-fiction-in-the-EU-Budget-Professor-Iain-Begg.pdf

Hasn't changed much at all for UK..

One thing is probably sure.. if they don't get out quick, their next payments will be even more costly considering the GBP EUR trend...

Next?



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on July 05, 2016, 02:54:58 AM
We have had 40 years of the the union only time will tell what happens next, we have not walked this path before

Great let'sbe the Guineu pigs / lemmings - jump off the cliff and see what happens... Oh wait... Remain said the GBP would fall markets would fall and Britain's economy would falter.. ''PROJECT FEAR' ..was the smug answer from 'Leave'..

It's already project FACT

 

nobody said it will be easy,

Fibber ... Remain told us it was suicidal

commodities are up

Oh 'sure'..

FTSE 250 share index - which includes far more British companies

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTMC (http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTMC)

click on one month 6June - 5July

6.2 percent down ...

Gawd help us from clueless voters voting like Turkeys for Christmas  ;)

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 05, 2016, 11:02:34 AM
Billy,

 you feel UK is getting screwed..  lets check it out.


I can't vote over there so my opinion doesn't count. I'm just saying there's a few things that tipped the scales in favor of Brexit. Most UK citizens agree they're getting screwed. If the EU gave up a little, they would've gained a lot with UK staying. They gambled their very existence over UK staying without having to give up anything. Too little, too late.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: dragonkid on July 06, 2016, 03:33:25 AM
Funny when people outside the UK, tell us brits how we feel. The Truth is msmob is pretty accurate, problem isn't only Muslims. My mother is a white European, she gets looked down upon by some english people, even though more brits retire in her country than her nationality reside in the uk. I had a tenant who migrated from ghana, he told me the country is going downhill since Romanians and polish people are undercutting him. A few people who voted out thinking they will be protecting their benefits, London is now foreign, not because Muslims pushed out the English, simply because housing benefits are now sending people out of London. Muslims are an easy target, once they are gone, other foreigners will be targeted, but hey, what do i know? I only lived in London most my life, and lived in other cities. Majority of you know nothing about how people genuinely feel, only if you lived here, actually talked to them, you will see that the problem is not only Islam.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on July 06, 2016, 03:36:06 AM
Most UK citizens agree they're getting screwed. If the EU gave up a little, they would've gained a lot with UK staying. They gambled their very existence over UK staying without having to give up anything. Too little, too late.

BillyB

There you go, AGAIN

1/ Many people thought they were voting to 'regain control' of immigration that was already controlled
2/ The EU had already compromised on a brake on total freedom of movement and rights to social benefits being curtailed.

I'll wager any 'deal' will be similar to what Cameron brokered  - if not worse ..

GBP down below 1.30 and at lowest levels for 30 years against most currencies..it's even lost against the rouble



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 06, 2016, 09:19:10 AM
BillyB

There you go, AGAIN

1/ Many people thought they were voting to 'regain control' of immigration that was already controlled
2/ The EU had already compromised on a brake on total freedom of movement and rights to social benefits being curtailed.


There you go again. I provided an article that has Cameron asking the EU for more control over immigration after the Brexit vote. I doubt he'd be asking that if immigration is under control as you claim.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on July 07, 2016, 07:27:48 AM
There you go again. I provided an article that has Cameron asking the EU for more control over immigration after the Brexit vote. I doubt he'd be asking that if immigration is under control as you claim.

NO, BillyB

Cameron ''risked all'' on his compromise that was not accepted and is null and void .. He will NOT be negotiating any deals with Europe

ALL your response has done has proved you can't read ..

FORTH TIME


The UK already controlled immigration from non EU nations ...


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 07, 2016, 08:07:59 AM
Cameron ''risked all'' on his compromise that was not accepted and is null and void .. He will NOT be negotiating any deals with Europe


Of course he's not going to negotiate deals with Europe. He's on the way out. But he's not blind to the facts and knows the EU must give them more control over their immigration. After all, the divorce isn't going to be final until two years from now. here is the link again. If there's a way to reverse Brexit, Cameron is hinting what that might be.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/28/cameron-eu-leaders-uk-control-immigration

ALL your response has done has proved you can't read ..

FORTH TIME


The UK already controlled immigration from non EU nations ...

I can read and I read you're trying to be sneaky this time by saying UK already controlled immigration from non EU nations. We're talking about UK not happy with the amount of control EU has over the UK, right? Or are we discussing the control of immigration Zimbabwe, Peru, and Cambodia have over UK?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on July 07, 2016, 08:51:31 AM
Of course he's not going to negotiate deals with Europe.


Jeez, trying to have an intelligent conversation with you is harder than dealing with adults with learning difficulties and hearing problems ;)

1/ Do you accept that the UK already says who gets in - if not EU citizens ?

2/ Do you accept that the UK could stop EU citizens who were a risk to Public Health, Hygiene or a risk to national security or had criminal records ?

3/ Do you accept that Cameron had negotiated a deal which became null and void on the Brexit vote ?


The answer to all of those can only be YES... they are factual - not open to debate...

Your inability to let this info sink in proves you must be as dumb as some of the Brexit voters who thought the UK was letting 'anyone' in ...

He's [Cameron] on the way out. But he's not blind to the facts and knows the EU must give them more control over their immigration.

He's made it clear that the electorate have rejected his advice to 'remain' and he will NOT negotiate further .... Simple enough for you ...The election for his successor is well under way ... today there will only be two candidates left in the race - started off with 5

After all, the divorce isn't going to be final until two years from now.

Thanks, I'm well aware of the period of uncertainly we just set for ourselves and two years is highly optimistic.

here is the link again. If there's a way to reverse Brexit, Cameron is hinting what that might be.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/28/cameron-eu-leaders-uk-control-immigration

 :deadhorse:

BillyB now PROVES beyond all reasonable doubt that he is not cognitive..and has reading comprehension issues..

Cameron explains that many voters wanted to control all aspects of immigration - currently we cannot stop a healthy EU citizen who is no risk to Public health / hygiene or a risk to national security or the public from entering the UK


I can read and I read you're trying to be sneaky this time by saying UK already controlled immigration from non EU nations.

WHAT is 'sneaky' about stating fact ? Actually try to READ what I post, before responding and looking dafter.... HINT ..the UK DID  already control immigration from non EU citizens..


We're talking about UK not happy with the amount of control EU has over the UK, right? Or are we discussing the control of immigration Zimbabwe, Peru, and Cambodia have over UK?

BillyB

I have no idea what you are talking about - but IF it still relates to immigration and the EU - ''freedom of movement'' - appertaining to EU nationals and their family members  - I have spoon-fed it for you.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on July 07, 2016, 09:19:36 AM
Your inability to let this info sink in proves you must be as dumb as some of the Brexit voters who thought the UK was letting 'anyone' in ...


Dumb people won Brexit. Intelligent people lost. Who's the real dummy?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmobyone on July 07, 2016, 09:43:09 AM
Dumb people won Brexit. Intelligent people lost. Who's the real dummy?

As you say - the dumbest won .... this is reflected in the UK stock markets and the 'Great' British Pound...

Now did you 'get it' re your confusion over current UK immigration policy ?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LiveFromUkraine on July 10, 2016, 03:45:35 PM
The EU doesn't like the idea of the UK slashing their corporate tax rates in order to keep companies from leaving.


http://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/97208/british-tax-cut-plan-not-a-good-idea-eu


Quote
“We should not enter into exacerbated fiscal competition between ourselves, or fiscal dumping,” Moscovici said in the first public reaction by the bloc to Osborne’s proposal.[/size]
Sounds like collusion to me.  Naughty, naughty.



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on March 14, 2017, 10:55:16 AM
Heard on news that Scotland now wants to take a re-vote on whether to leave the UK or whatever.

This is based on their unhappiness over the Brexit situation.

I wonder if Northern Ireland might want to follow suit some day.

Could lead to a total collapse of the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: jone on March 14, 2017, 11:18:06 AM
Dumb to me is when people make their opinions known on something that they know nothing about.  I make no representations to know the minutia of politics in Great Britian.  And the first thing I will tell people is that the Devil is in the Details.  And further, that opinion is created on the streets of England.  Therefore, I opine that Americans trying to tell Brits who was right and who was wrong about Brexit is just about as stupid as JayH trying to tell America what its policies should be.

I have no problem with comparing our apples to your oranges.  In the US we do this.  And in your country, you do that.  But to understand how Joe Sixpack thinks on the streets of Peoria is not something that one can experience unless living here.  We interact in the political arena on this forum.  I have always treasured being able to ask people of other countries how their politics work.  But I would be looked at as an idiot to make assumptions that I knew more than the locals.  (I probably am looked at as an idiot anyway. After all, I spend hours each month on an online forum.)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on March 14, 2017, 12:06:26 PM
Dumb to me is when people make their opinions known on something that they know nothing about.  I make no representations to know the minutia of politics in Great Britian. 

That is clear, as Great Britain AND Northern Ireland make up the UNITED KINGDOM - who all voted re Brexit.... ;)



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on March 14, 2017, 12:21:45 PM
Dumb to me is when people make their opinions known on something that they know nothing about........... the Devil is in the Details.

+1

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: wallm on March 14, 2017, 01:16:43 PM
I am dumb. I learned about Brexit by reading that liberal trash rag called nytimes. ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on March 15, 2017, 02:16:17 PM
I am dumb. I learned about Brexit by reading that liberal trash rag called nytimes. ;D

I learned about it from reading a bunch of different articles about it, then
I started this thread to see what others thought about it.

I really don't have a horse in this race, I figure that the citizens of the UK will
figure it out and that the doom and destruction crowd are being Chicken Little
again.

(http://savvysleever.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/chicken-little.jpg)

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on March 15, 2017, 02:37:10 PM
I learned about it from reading a bunch of different articles about it, then
I started this thread to see what others thought about it.

I really don't have a horse in this race, I figure that the citizens of the UK will
figure it out and that the doom and destruction crowd are being Chicken Little
again.


Oh, Beel !

Since the vote the f'n Pound Sterling has plummeted - A year ago If I sent SC the equic of 100 USD , she'd be getting 65c, now

Project fear' as leavers christened the remain warning - has become project fact ..

We now have a 75 billion USD shortfall  - even the govt admit this is due to the uncertainty following the vote - in Public accounts

Brits living abroad and EU citizens here - who never needed to register - let alone obtain the equiv of a Green Card - they could just tip up - and settle haven't got a clue what is happening as the govt thinks 'a strong hand in negotiations' means not giving reassurances - even though Mrs May had given them...

Best of all, Mrs May tells the Scots - who now want another Independence vote - that we are stronger together - whilst suggesting we are better off leaving our neigbours' club with whom we trade tariff free and do five times the trade than the USA - who are are inward looking..

Sure, you know better :)


PS in case you didn't know both N.Ireland and Scotland voted to REMAIN...


PPS It's Chicken Lickin over here - and the sky is falling in ... as anyone with a clue could have predicted....


PPPS Trump's visit has been put back  - now that was a wise move..
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on March 21, 2017, 06:08:30 PM

Sure, you know better :)

PPS It's Chicken Lickin over here - and the sky is falling in ... as anyone with a clue could have predicted....


PPPS Trump's visit has been put back  - now that was a wise move..

I never said that I know better, I actually started this thread to learn more.

What I did say was that
"I figure that the citizens of the UK will figure it out and that the doom
and destruction crowd are being Chicken Little again"

I am confident that the country that survived the Bombing of London in
WW2 and the Hundred Years war will survive this as well.

Udachi!

Bill 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on March 22, 2017, 12:46:59 AM
I never said that I know better, I actually started this thread to learn more.

I apologise for the sarcasm, Beel . This vote to leave the EU has been the MOST monumentally STUPID decision and how we will  leave -  'hard Brexit'  - throwing everything away, just infuriates me,


I've done all I can to soften the blow - My kids can still be European citizens- live and work freely within Europe - through my and the maternal Grandpa being born on the island of Ireland - Irish Citizenship.



What I did say was that
"I figure that the citizens of the UK will figure it out and that the doom
and destruction crowd are being Chicken Little again"

THAT was the statement that made me MAD !

The Doom and gloom crowd includes me and with good reason - most of our 'fears' are already FACT :(..and we have't ye left - or officially started the leaving process.

We've already thrown away billions - which means more borrowing - which will burden our kids and their kids, etc.,   Those voting out may have believed we'd save money - by leaving - but we've already LOST far more - due to the uncertainty  associated with the unknown.

Look, we aren't special ...We are an island and only this saved us from being overrun in WW2..  ( including lives sacrificed and some smart inventions and help from the USA )

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on March 25, 2017, 07:03:56 PM
Look, we aren't special ...We are an island and only this saved us from being overrun in WW2..  ( including lives sacrificed and some smart inventions and help from the USA )

The UK wasn't overrun because they were only accessible by sea and they had a superior
Navy. The UK had a very astute intelligence service and they had Churchill in charge rather
than a madman. The UK is special.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on March 26, 2017, 03:24:56 AM
The UK wasn't overrun because they were only accessible by sea and they had a superior
Navy. The UK had a very astute intelligence service and they had Churchill in charge rather
than a madman. The UK is special.

As I said ... being an island was THE major saviour ... A navy wouldn't help if we had been physically connected to Europe .... WE were no more special than the French, Dutch, Belgian, Poles .......  we were an aircraft 'carrier' Hitler couldn't sink.. x
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on March 28, 2017, 01:09:54 PM
The Financial Times today..

US bankers hatch two-stage Brexit plan for City


''The US bankers’ cautious comments came after a number of banks issued high-profile warnings this week, including HSBC’s confirmation of plans to move 1,000 roles in its London-based investment bank to Paris. UBS said about the same number of its London employees could be affected by Brexit, while Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said that more than 4,000 of his bank’s 16,000 UK staff could be hit.''

http://www.ft.com/content/a2af5c60-de16-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce?segmentId=58ef64d9-d48e-225c-e245-6a9e1d858676&segment_detail=Story5UKbankerstwostage (http://www.ft.com/content/a2af5c60-de16-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce?segmentId=58ef64d9-d48e-225c-e245-6a9e1d858676&segment_detail=Story5UKbankerstwostage)

Tomorrow the UK govt. will announce it intends to leave - but it hasn't a SCOOBY how it will persuade the Financial hub in London not to flee - if it can't do deals without tariffs with the rest of Europe and move staff freely.  :wallbash:


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Chelseaboy on March 29, 2017, 01:45:21 AM
Sky News poll today...50 % of UK people are happy or very happy that we're triggering article 50 today,whilst 36 % of people are sad.

Moby the UK basher is very much in the minority in his views.

It's a good day to be English today.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on March 29, 2017, 02:02:14 AM
Chelskiboy !

I suspect most people polled were English and if you are happy to possibly see the break up of the UK - as 'my' folks' and the Scots clearly did not vote suicide - you would get your wish ...

Oh hang on .... the Scottish Parliament voted for another referendum on LEAVING the UK, yesterday - and the English PM wants to dictate when they can have it  :deadhorse:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39422747 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39422747)

In the meantime, your attempted diversion failed to note the danger to jobs that brings in big spenders - like banks  :wallbash:


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on March 30, 2017, 06:09:39 AM
Whilst I take exception to to a 29/28 split on in / out being a 'clear mandate' to leaving the EU - I accept the 'leave won

My objection has been that the referendum included no plans for how we would leave and what legislation  / terms with the EU would remain untouched

Today the 'Great Repeal Bill' - a white paper - a proposal on how the UK can change laws / regulations has been announced

For me, a massive GOOD thing is that the govt has made it clear that ANY EU law taking presidency over UK law will remain until - at least - the last lay of being a member.

This proposal makes it clear - in the matter of immigration of EU citizens - over which the UK no say - unless they were a threat to National Security, Public health or Hygiene.  (pretty major get-outs ) that they can continue to arrive as per EU Directives.

The proposal simply allows for Parliament to create new laws - for example laws concerning EU immigrants - which must be agreed in Parliament

As such matters must be agreed with the EU - as how we treat EU citizens will likely be reciprocated - I just wonder which will come first ... Future UK legislation or agreement with the EU ?

As I predicted : A vote to leave will ensure a JUMP in EU immigration - as the UK cannot stop folks coming. The current law is that staying - legally - within an EU state 5 years - means permanent residency - so when will the 'cut off " begin?

The UK simply doesn't know how many EU citizens are here or when they came - so this will be 'fun' ..


http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-great-repeal-bill-white-paper/legislating-for-the-united-kingdoms-withdrawal-from-the-european-union (http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-great-repeal-bill-white-paper/legislating-for-the-united-kingdoms-withdrawal-from-the-european-union)














Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Boethius on April 03, 2017, 07:54:33 PM
I thought this article was interesting -

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/brain-drain-brexit-and-trump-have-top-notch-academics-fleeing-and-canadian-schools-stand-to-gain&pubdate=2017-04-03
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on April 05, 2017, 01:18:31 AM
Good article Boethius

UK Academia are already despairing of the VISA policies that might as well say. '' please study elsewhere'' :(

In the meantime ..

Those of us with open minds will remember I have warned that immigration would note come down with a Brexit vote - or even following 'Brexit' ..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39178288 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39178288)

Brexit: Ending free movement may not cut migration, says Lords report

In the meantime ... immigration is UP .. as the Brexit vote has got folks trying to get IN - before any 'drawbridge' might be raised ....

These things were labelled as 'project fear' - but continue to be proven correct ... 

Then we have the 'jobs front'..

The City firms warned of potential job losses..

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit)

Up to 100,000 UK jobs at risk as Merkel and Juncker ally warns on euro clearing


This was SO b.obvious - esp. if the un-elected 'brextremist' UK govt went for a 'hard brexit' ...

Those jobs going would mean a lot more going in the sectors that rely on those disposable incomes..



Now, is the time for other nations to profit from UK Ltd's lemming-like jumping off a cliff ((






Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on July 24, 2017, 03:17:59 AM
I suppose you voted for Brexit and and haven't woken up, yet .. The GBP isn't Great, any more..

True, it was around £1.60 to the dollar before Brexit but even this was seen as a bit on the weak side. I remember about a decade ago when you could get £2 to the dollar :D I went to the US twice around that time and got amazing value for money. Stayed in places that would otherwise be expensive and hired a convertible to drive around in. Fun time in LA :) What I would do if we got back to that level of exchange rate again, would definitely be worth investing abroad.

Truth is that the Pound has got weaker as Ukraine currency has got worth less due to inflation. If the pound kept its strength I would still be getting much the same bargain of a deal as before the Brexit vote when I was there in March last year in Ukraine. I'm thinking after all the negotiations on trade deal have been hammered out and/or Brexit has gone through the Pound will start to rise again.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on July 24, 2017, 03:39:41 AM
I'm thinking after all the negotiations on trade deal have been hammered out and/or Brexit has gone through the Pound will start to rise again.

No, you're not thinking ... on what basis will the GBP get stronger ?  Project Fear  - the argument of 'leave' is becoming fact :(
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on July 24, 2017, 01:02:44 PM
No, you're not thinking ... on what basis will the GBP get stronger ?  Project Fear  - the argument of 'leave' is becoming fact :(

Moby its down to the uncertainty of the deal that we will end up with - market people don't like uncertainty they want to know on what basis we are trading. When we know the new trading arrangement the uncertainty will go. If the market people don't have a good opinion of the trading deal then there may not be much change.

Longer term though it all comes down to affect on economy. If there is little negative affect then it will go up. If there is an obvious positive affect it will go up a lot - say if we make a trade deal with US and/or positive economic results start to come forward.

End of the day no one can really tell what is going to happen conclusively. I think better to give the idea of branching out trade deals Internationally rather than being restricted to a free trade deal with EU as worth a go. Why scamper back to the status quo of a EU free trade deal without giving the idea of international trade deals a shot. We can always have a go at International trade deals first and if it doesn't work out head to  a free trade deal with EU later. We are a big market for the EU so they can't afford to turn their back on us at any time. 

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Anotherkiwi on July 24, 2017, 06:33:37 PM
True, it was around £1.60 to the dollar before Brexit but even this was seen as a bit on the weak side. I remember about a decade ago when you could get £2 to the dollar :D I went to the US twice around that time and got amazing value for money. Stayed in places that would otherwise be expensive and hired a convertible to drive around in. Fun time in LA :) What I would do if we got back to that level of exchange rate again, would definitely be worth investing abroad.

That's rubbish - it was the other way around!  :cluebat:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on July 25, 2017, 02:28:52 AM
That's rubbish - it was the other way around!  :cluebat:

Yep you're right I meant $1.60 to the pound and $2 to the pound.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on July 25, 2017, 04:43:42 AM
Moby its down to the uncertainty of the deal that we will end up with

No,...and that you would fall for THAT is not surprising !

The fall in the GBP started the moment polls suggested a closer vote - Feb 2016  - the GBP rocketed up when the exit polls predicted a win for remain and fell overnight-  on June 24th -  when it was clear the Lemmings voted to jump off the cliff  into the unknown

Subsequently, all the predictions of the stupidity of voting leave are coming true ...

Like much in your life, you seem immune to reality  - but not to worry - you are clearly not alone in this daftness

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on July 25, 2017, 08:48:16 AM
No,...and that you would far for THAt is not surprising !

The fall in the GBP started the moment polls suggested a closer vote - Feb 2016  - the GBP rocketed up when the exit polls predicted a win for remain and fell overnight back down on June 24th when it was clear the Lemmings voted to jump off the cliff  into the unknown

Subsequently, all the predictions of the stupidity of voting leave are coming true ...

Liem much in your life, you seem immune to reality  - but not to worry - you are clearly not alone in this daftness

Yes you are correct in how the specifics of how the Pound went up & down Moby, I was just giving the briefest overview not wishing to bore anyone with the moment by moment movements.

Whether you are Leave or Remain often comes down to where each person's situation in society. If you own a business that is connected with EU trade your more likely to be Remain, if its not then more likely Leave. If you rent out houses to East Europeans then your more likely Remain. If you rent or are trying to find a property either first time buy or bigger property you could be more Leave. If you want protection for your job or need a job from the hordes of ambitiously hungry east Europeans then you are more likely to vote Leave. Take that video JayH linked to, 'web of lies' when faced with loads of immigrants like that who are ridiculously determined to compete like hell against everyone else do you think local population want to have to endure that, no they just want to work a job at in a reasonable manner to afford their day to day lifestyle. Its how it always used to be. I mean I'm not work shy, but few of the UK population want to be on the go all the time.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on July 25, 2017, 02:35:10 PM

 If you own a business that is connected with EU trade your more likely to be Remain,

No.... JCB's owner's ( they make heavy plant earth movers ) asked their workers to vote leave - they SOUGHT a weaker GBP ...



Really, like your quest for a FSU W - you are naive to the fact you've been played
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on July 26, 2017, 07:46:56 AM
No.... JCB's owner's ( they make heavy plant earth movers ) asked their workers to vote leave - they SOUGHT a weaker GBP ...



Really, like your quest for a FSU W - you are naive to the fact you've been played

Most of us in the Leave camp knew the rich/Tories had their own agenda that is not in our interest, i.e tearing up employment legislation, where laws are made, who's in control - Brussels elite or UK elite, etc. None of this motivated the general population to vote Leave, the general population had their own concerns namely immigration from EU (Eastern Europe) and its effect on their lives i.e more demand on housing, public services, hospitals, schools and of course more stiffer competition for jobs. Added to that problems of EU blunders/mismanagement such as with Greece & the Euro and the debt of Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. Then the Asylum crises from Syria being handled in a dreadfully slow and awkward manner. Most UK citizens had decided they had, had enough of the EU and all of these problems it brought.

For sure the EU brought some decent laws in but even some of these have been rendered useless in recent years, employment legislation has been got around by zero hours contracts and the EU did nothing to remedy this problem. Most of us that voted Leave I believe know that there will be a parting of ways from the Tories in the future as we will not be in support of them tearing down the little rights of workers that have not been rendered useless by zero-hours contracts. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on July 26, 2017, 12:02:01 PM
Most of us in the Leave camp knew the rich/Tories had their own agenda that is not in our interest, i.e tearing up employment legislation, where laws are made, who's in control - Brussels elite or UK elite, etc. None of this motivated the general population to vote Leave, the general population had their own concerns namely immigration from EU (Eastern Europe) and its effect on their lives i.e more demand on housing, public services, hospitals, schools and of course more stiffer competition for jobs. Added to that problems of EU blunders/mismanagement such as with Greece & the Euro and the debt of Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. Then the Asylum crises from Syria being handled in a dreadfully slow and awkward manner. Most UK citizens had decided they had, had enough of the EU and all of these problems it brought.

Once again you just proved you are one of those people who voted leave on clueless motives

1/ How any Syrians did the UK promise to take - and by 2020 ? 2, 000.. and only those from refugee camps on the borders of nations to Syria...

FACT: the UK and Ireland had not signed up to the EU Directive to share the load in the event of any refugee crisis - no commitment to take any refugees ...  :deadhorse:

2/ As for the Euro experiment - I was one of those who was in favour of the UK joining ...Right now, yet again - the Eurozone is out-performing the UK in growth and the Euro is much stronger ...

So, there's two of your 'theories' busted ...


For sure the EU brought some decent laws in but even some of these have been rendered useless in recent years, employment legislation has been got around by zero hours contracts and the EU did nothing to remedy this problem. Most of us that voted Leave I believe know that there will be a parting of ways from the Tories in the future as we will not be in support of them tearing down the little rights of workers that have not been rendered useless by zero-hours contracts.

Once more you prove your ignorance .. the UK had opts re EU employment laws...


Well, Trench - when ARE you going to post something you DO know about ? ....

Far more Tertiary-level  educated folk voted to remain - you figure that out ...
 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: LAman on July 27, 2017, 01:08:47 AM
Wasn't this thread supposed to be 'introductions and ice breaker'?

When did it turn political?? Oh I'm sorry, that is typical here!!!!  Is there a moderator in the house???
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on September 16, 2018, 07:53:47 AM
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, is calling for a second Brexit referendum. He must want a best 2 of 3 referendums on exiting the EU. Maybe the election for mayor of London should be best 2 of 3?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45537784
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Mod7 on September 16, 2018, 11:37:15 AM
Wasn't this thread supposed to be 'introductions and ice breaker'? When did it turn political?? Oh I'm sorry, that is typical here!!!!  Is there a moderator in the house???
Maybe it was once, now it's in "Odds and Ends" ;).
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on September 16, 2018, 01:25:54 PM
For those seemingly non-informed

AT LAST folks now realise that leave sold a pack of lies re 'cost savings' and the polls now show a significant REMAIN

'We' voted to leave - not HOW we'll leave and I've already posted about the People's Vote campaign

Dave if you want to get your finger on the pulse - better to ask questions and you'll get two or more very different responses from Brits ...

Those that think leaving that won't effect them - or will be 'better' tend to be those drawing salaries - not those who run the biz....  GO FIGURE

London significantly voted REMAIN and can now feel the VERY real threat of well-paid job losses in financial services



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on September 16, 2018, 01:35:37 PM

AT LAST folks now realise that leave sold a pack of lies re 'cost savings' ad the polls now show a significant REMAIN


Every single election I've witnessed, both sides lied. It's repugnant but it's reality.


'We' voted to leave - not HOW we'll leave


The how is up to the politicians. That's their job.


 and I've already posted about the People's Vote campaign


Perhaps the UK should be more like Switzerland which holds votes by the people for major decisions that affect the country or region. However that's not the way the UK works or the way this referendum worked so you'll have to live by the decision of the referendum.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on September 16, 2018, 02:35:05 PM


Every single election I've witnessed, both sides lied. It's repugnant but it's reality.


Er DUH - in THIS case we have the govt promising to honour the 'leave' vote stating that Brexit uncertainty has resulted in a tax shortfall that was was predicted by 'project fear'   FACT..


Here we have Dave - once more proving he hasn't got a scoobie do ...


The how is up to the politicians. That's their job.

NO.... the Politicians work for us and the govt will fall if it tries to take us out in a 'hard Brexit ' ...

You really need to understand how the DUP ar king-makers and whilst they seek a Brexit - they will NOT accept a hard Brexit as they represent 30 percent of Ulster voters and will not vote themselves into obscurity ....


Perhaps the UK should be more like Switzerland which holds votes by the people for major decisions that affect the country or region. However that's not the way the UK works or the way this referendum worked so you'll have to live by the decision of the referendum.

Just like your ""the BBC is state run" 'assertion'  - you really must read up - before posting so clearly ignorant on matters UK

CLUE:  the referendum was not HOW we would leave ...Cameron thought he was appeasing and there'd be a remain win ...

He didn't bargain for WELL dodgy funding and the media owners backing 'leave' and posting headlines that were very laughable to anyone with  a brain and relying on trading with our biggest trading partners AND the Irish 'border issues' that  are a square that cannot be made a circle



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on September 16, 2018, 03:47:09 PM

Er DUH - in THIS case we have the govt promising to honour the 'leave' vote stating that Brexit uncertainty has resulted in a tax shortfall that was was predicted by 'project fear'   FACT..


And yet you provide no data to back up your fact.

Here we have Dave - once more proving he hasn't got a scoobie do ...

You complain about how badly you're treated on RUA and yet here you insult anyone who disagrees with your opinions.

NO.... the Politicians work for us and the govt will fall if it tries to take us out in a 'hard Brexit ' ...

Few people really believe politicians work for the people. The politicians don't, they only say that during elections to get votes.


You really need to understand how the DUP ar king-makers and whilst they seek a Brexit - they will NOT accept a hard Brexit as they represent 30 percent of Ulster voters and will not vote themselves into obscurity ....

The DUP are going to stop a hard Brexit because they represent a few Ulster voters? Don't think so.

Just like your ""the BBC is state run" 'assertion'  - you really must read up - before posting so clearly ignorant on matters UK

More insults? Is that all you know how to post?

CLUE:  the referendum was not HOW we would leave ...Cameron thought he was appeasing and there'd be a remain win ...

Of course Cameron thought Remain would win. He was wrong for saying he'd hold a referendum on it. How could a referendum be held on how the UK would leave? There are many different variations on leaving even among those who favor leaving.

He didn't bargain for WELL dodgy funding and the media owners backing 'leave' and posting headlines that very laughable to anyone with  a brain and relying on trading with our biggest trading partners AND the Irish 'border issues' that  are a square that connect be made a circle

Again no data on your dodgy funding opinion. Media owners in the UK have always expressed their opinions. As for Irish border issues give NI back to the Republic.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on September 16, 2018, 05:28:47 PM
And yet you provide no data to back up your fact.

Don't be a SILLY Billy..

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/brexit-will-blow-59bn-hole-in-public-finances-admits-hammond (http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/brexit-will-blow-59bn-hole-in-public-finances-admits-hammond)

"The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) announced that there would be a  over the next five years, with £59bn of that as a direct result of Brexit. Other factors included weaker-than-expected tax revenues, and policy changes, including Hammond’s decision to spend more on infrastructure.

George Osborne was expecting to achieve a surplus of £11bn on the public finances by 2020-21; instead, the OBR is now forecasting a £21bn deficit – and public debt is expected to peak at more than 90% of GDP."

The UK was THE fastest recovering ( after 2007-8) western recovery and the former guy who ran the natiion's affairs forecasts had to be revised HEAVILY to the negative ...that's DOWNWARDS..




Hammond WAS the new govt Chancellor of the Exchequer ...After Cameron and Osborne resigned after the 'leave vote' 

You complain about how badly you're treated on RUA

Once more incorrect - I find the need to edit 'my' signature, 'my' profile photo - nicked from here - and my posts proving certain Kremlin sycophants bias, HILARIOUS...

On HERE - the very posters who keep posting daft - use this very Soviet editing as some sort of 'validation' - rather than just saying - "DUH - I didn't know that, thanks"
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on September 16, 2018, 06:03:36 PM
Don't be a SILLY Billy..

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/brexit-will-blow-59bn-hole-in-public-finances-admits-hammond (http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/brexit-will-blow-59bn-hole-in-public-finances-admits-hammond)

"The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) announced that there would be a  over the next five years, with £59bn of that as a direct result of Brexit. Other factors included weaker-than-expected tax revenues, and policy changes, including Hammond’s decision to spend more on infrastructure.

George Osborne was expecting to achieve a surplus of £11bn on the public finances by 2020-21; instead, the OBR is now forecasting a £21bn deficit – and public debt is expected to peak at more than 90% of GDP."

The UK was THE fastest recovering ( after 2007-8) western recovery and the former guy who ran the natiion's affairs forecasts had to be revised HEAVILY to the negative ...that's DOWNWARDS..


Economic forecasts are notoriously inaccurate concerning the future, even a few years in the future. Trying to predict a decade or more economically is impossible. That's what the leavers are concerned about the more distant future.





Once more incorrect - I find the need to edit 'my' signature, 'my' profile photo - nicked from here - and my posts proving certain Kremlin sycophants bias, HILARIOUS...

On HERE - the very posters who keep posting daft - use this very Soviet editing as some sort of 'validation' - rather than just saying - "DUH - I didn't know that, thanks"

msmob you're saying that you're treated fairly on RUA? Anyone from RUA watching? Pass it on msmob says he's treated fairly on RUA. My mistake.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on September 17, 2018, 12:58:49 AM
Economic forecasts are notoriously inaccurate concerning the future, even a few years in the future. Trying to predict a decade or more economically is impossible. That's what the leavers are concerned about the more distant future.

So, first you call into doubt my assertion - foolish  enough - 'then demand evidence' - which you then call into doubt and now I'll prove the forecast was correct ... you walked RIGHT onto the punch I lined up for you ..


You see my FIRST piece of evidence was from Autumn 2016 - a year later - having been proven correct - ( remember- we were told by 'leave' we'd be £300 million a week better off out of the EU...which could be spent on the National Health Service  ) Hammond is warning we need to RAISE taxes to cover the shortfalls ....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42069508 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42069508)

"As well as spending announcements, the chancellor also uses his Budget to update MPs on the state of the economy.

And they cast a shadow on his other announcements, with the Office for Budget Responsibility predicting the economy would grow by 1.5% this year, down from the estimate of 2% it made in March.

Growth, it says, will drop to 1.3% by 2020 and then rise to 1.5% in 2021, lower in every year than was predicted in March.

Borrowing was predicted to be £8.4bn lower than in March, but long-term deficit predictions were hiked to £34.7bn in 2019, going down to £30.1bn in 2021."

Before 'Brexit'  the former Chancellor was proving successful in aiming to turn the corner re excessive borrowing six years earlier - as 'we' were then the faster growing western nation... the 'Brexit' vote made us the slowest



msmob you're saying that you're treated fairly on RUA? Anyone from RUA watching? Pass it on msmob says he's treated fairly on RUA. My mistake.

Indeed it IS your mistake ...  and theirs ... The necessity to edit my profile, signature  - even stealing my profile image from here - and posts to make them read different and not allow a riposte IS hilarious and I'm REALLY not complaining - I LOVE it .. ))


ALL this - to avoid simply admitting you posted clueless ad got busted ?







Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on September 17, 2018, 01:29:51 AM
Moby

The Emperor with no clothes.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on September 17, 2018, 01:37:50 AM
Moby

The Emperor with no clothes.



 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=22567.msg493144;topicseen#msg493144
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on September 17, 2018, 01:56:14 AM
Moby

The Emperor with no clothes.

Dear JG

That is 'MY' long-time used phrase ( please check )  - in relation to Donald 'Trampu' - and at least that contention has validity ... ;)

I did say that another Brit might offer another version of 'Brexit' .... perhaps you might like to TRY to counter any point I've made ....... ? 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on September 17, 2018, 06:02:43 AM
Dear JG

That is 'MY' long-time used phrase ( please check )  - in relation to Donald 'Trampu' - and at least that contention has validity ... ;)

I did say that another Brit might offer another version of 'Brexit' .... perhaps you might like to TRY to counter any point I've made ....... ?
Hootanannie

‘YOUR’ phrase indeed.
One wonders where you appropriated it from?
My entire worldview is contrary to yours, so Brexit is but a part of it.
You are doom and gloom,I am hopeful and positive.
Nothing of Project Fear has come to pass, no matter how you try to sell it.
You remainers deserved the kicking you got.
Have a good day.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: 2tallbill on September 17, 2018, 08:00:47 AM
Dear JG

That is 'MY' long-time used phrase ( please check )

Moby,

Maybe you protest too much?
The press and the left has been saying that about GOP presidents for quite a while.


About GW Bush
Pelosi questions Bush's competence
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/05/20/pelosi.bush/

About Ronald Reagan
The Clothes Have No Emperor: A Chronicle of the American '80s

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/742344.The_Clothes_Have_No_Emperor


About Richard Nixon
Nixon Cheered and Jeered in Georgia
http://www.nytimes.com/1973/11/19/archives/nixon-cheered-and-jeered-in-georgia-nixon-is-cheered-and-jeered-in.html

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on September 17, 2018, 09:12:28 AM
Moby,

Maybe you protest too much?
The press and the left has been saying that about GOP presidents for quite a while.

I'm reserving this phrase for your current incumbent - as he really takes the biscuit ;)

GW Bush was clueless about places outside the US

 Ronald Raygun make a fine team with Mrs T


 Richard Nixon = crook
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 02, 2018, 10:23:46 AM
Of course it's BAD...

Now the long awaited and much predicted arrival of the "Chickens are coming to roost " ...

UK 'Brexit' Secretary .."Brexit: Government considers NI-GB regulatory checks"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45711991

Riposte from N.I's DUP .. which is the thread holding the govt of the UK in power ..


DUP 'won't accept' Brexit Irish Sea checks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45719580



I can hardly 'take credit' for constantly pointing out what was BLEEDING OBVIOUS ...except to the daftest 'Brexit' supporter ...

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 02, 2018, 02:00:24 PM
Of course it's BAD...

Now the long awaited and much predicted arrival of the "Chickens are coming to roost " ...

UK 'Brexit' Secretary .."Brexit: Government considers NI-GB regulatory checks"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45711991

Riposte from N.I's DUP .. which is the thread holding the govt of the UK in power ..


DUP 'won't accept' Brexit Irish Sea checks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45719580



I can hardly 'take credit' for constantly pointing out what was BLEEDING OBVIOUS ...except to the daftest 'Brexit' supporter ...

Even if the DUP  refuse to concede any ground over the Ireland & North Sea border then Theresa can call an election in the hope of this time gaining enough seats to form a government without them. If she has at least taken the process as far as it can go then she can show the electorate that she has valid cause to call an election as it's the DUP being unreasonable. If she was to not try to offer forward a deal i.e Chequers Deal, that allows for a no border check, then she could be seen as the unreasonable one.

I've no doubt in my mind that Chequers Deal is not merely to show that's she's tried to reach a reasonable compromise. I think that she really would sign on it if the EU were to agree. They seem to have their goat up about it though for no good reason. They've got this month to come to an agreement or not, so we may hear more certainty towards the end of the month. If a deal is reached its just then for it to be voted on in Parliament and by the EU member states. They knocked it a few weeks back but my guess is they could all come on board whether they like it or not. Theresa subsequent visit to the US showed them who could be replacing them as our primary trading partner.

If Chequers does get sunk then it will be a play for a complete break from the EU and a hard border. In which case there will probably be a GE to decide the matter. Unless of course she can get all of her party and enough Labour MP's to side with her. There is also the possibility that she may get some or all of the DUP to abstain on the vote perhaps on a promise to go for a post Brexit deal with the idea of sorting out the border issue that way.

One way or another we're about to see who's right :D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 02, 2018, 02:11:07 PM
There is also the possibility that she may get some or all of the DUP to abstain on the vote perhaps on a promise to go for a post Brexit deal with the idea of sorting out the border issue that way.

One way or another we're about to see who's right :D

This is in an ample of Trench being  'analytical' ...;)

Thanks for proving you are 'wishful' thinking over realpolitik ....  You plainly don't understand the DUP and THEIR being likely to be wiped out by the UUP - IF they cause 'hard brexit' ...

You are clutching at straws

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 03, 2018, 12:40:31 PM
This is in an ample of Trench being  'analytical' ...;)

Thanks for proving you are 'wishful' thinking over realpolitik ....  You plainly don't understand the DUP and THEIR being likely to be wiped out by the UUP - IF they cause 'hard brexit' ...

You are clutching at straws

Well Boris drew big support at the party conference yesterday which signifies there  is a lot of support out there for total Brexit. Now he could win the party enough seats if he became PM and oust the need for the DUP. Theresa could still manage to get enough seats if she went for another GE. All subtle signs point to another GE in the offing which suggest to me unless the EU  face reality in negotiations we are headed for a total Brexit. Just a few more weeks to find out. Expect the Autumn budget at the ens of October to be full of give aways to prep the electorate in the Tories favour for a GE. A freeze in fuel duty has already been announced which again suggests to me a successful outcome to negotiations is not assured.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 04, 2018, 12:11:05 AM
That you might think Theresa May or any new Tory leader would risk a General Election proves how utterly clueless you are...

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 04, 2018, 01:07:08 AM
That you might think Theresa May or any new Tory leader would risk a General Election proves how utterly clueless you are...

Theresa has already stated that she would not go for a customs union, to do so she would almost certainly get enough signatures for a leadership contest, an outcry from Leavers and a return of UKIP and permanent divisions within her party.

So yes, it's just easier and cleaner for her to call a General Election. She's not as likely to do as badly as last time. Even if she did as bad as to lose the Election at least then the problem is off her hands. Again she might face a leadership election but still being under the stigma of a previously bad GE performance she could get that anyway. Losing leadership of the opposition party is not as bad as losing leadership as PM, she would at any rate had another crack at winning a GE outright. She would also have little where to go with the party if she could not follow through on Brexit. It seems apparent that a vote on Brexit would still need to be passed in Parliament rather than it time out.

The more I think about it the more I think we may be better of leaving without a deal. It's a cleaner way and gets away from all the awkward entanglement with the EU. I think we could do pretty well in reaching agreements with the US instead. The EU have always been an awkward crowd for us to be a part off. Shame they chose to ditch the old EEC in favour of it.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 04, 2018, 02:16:06 AM
IF any UK govt tries this they will not BE a UK govt.... this is all too much for you, Trenchie...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 04, 2018, 03:01:36 AM
IF any UK govt tries this they will not BE a UK govt.... this is all too much for you, Trenchie...

There is always a UK govt, the UK Gov control the UK, lol - why what would you expect to happen in such a scenario? Theresa won't push for a customs union, she might as well call a GE and if Labour get in they can do that. In the event of a no deal the DUP have outlived their usefulness so if she can't push through a no deal vote without them she'll press the ejector button on the DUP and call a General Election to get rid of them. If she does as bad as to lose the Election at least the problem is off her slate. In a no deal situation she may have no alternative to call a General Election whether she liked it or not, but this time she will be seen as having justification for doing so.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 04, 2018, 12:50:26 PM
There is always a UK govt, the UK Gov control the UK, lol - why what would you expect to happen in such a scenario? Theresa won't push for a customs union, she might as well call a GE and if Labour get in they can do that. In the event of a no deal the DUP have outlived their usefulness so if she can't push through a no deal vote without them she'll press the ejector button on the DUP and call a General Election to get rid of them. If she does as bad as to lose the Election at least the problem is off her slate. In a no deal situation she may have no alternative to call a General Election whether she liked it or not, but this time she will be seen as having justification for doing so.
[/quote ]

You knew what I meant, OK ...    Let T May try - like last time - for an 'improvement ' - like last time :))

My prediction .....  A wonderful compromise ...we remain in the customs union

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 04, 2018, 01:49:50 PM
A customs union is not acceptable to those that voted Leave. Unless Labour gain power I can't see it happening. That and they would need a fair few seats over the majority to counter any rebels in their party - at present roughly about 5 ish. I can't see Labour doing that we'll in a General Election, they are no more united than the Tories and they have hardly been showing stella performance recently.

May did badly last time for several reasons, she thought she would get a blank cheque to do what she liked of the back of Brexit support, she had two inexperienced advisor (friends) advising her badly with regards to paying for elderly care that scared off her core voters, the elderly. She also failed to recognise voters weariness with austerity. Corbyn on the other hand recognised austerity had become a big vote lose plus he baited the student voted by promising to scrap all student loans/debt - essentially winning them away from the Lib Dems.

This time around I think Theresa will have learned from her mistakes and won't be making the same mistakes again. I think she'll struggle to mitigate the student vote from Corbyn but she will probably get the elderly vote back and not lose votes on austerity, that may be enough.

Lib Dems will poll badly I think, they are a spent force these days. The old boy running the party isnt making any headway nor getting much publicity and the party is now real small. I don't see them getting the student vote back of Labour, not after Nick Clegg knifed the students in the back. They will only feature in terms of taking votes that would be useful to Labour and so splitting the Remain voters in places.

I myself would be curious to see how many immigrants stay in the UK after Brexit and where else theor preffered destination if choice would become. I'm thinking a lot the East Europeans may chose Germany, it's near to them, has a strong economy so I think they will get the brunt off it. I doubt Germans will like it as they are already swamped with asylum seekers in the most populace country in Europe. Gerexit anyone :D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 05, 2018, 01:30:20 AM
Well, Threnchie

the time for putting your 'theories' to the test draws ever closer .... 

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 05, 2018, 06:59:29 AM
Well, Threnchie

the time for putting your 'theories' to the test draws ever closer ....

I for one will be happy for all this Brexit stuff to come to a conclusion, it has been rattling on too long to my mind. So in a few weeks we shall know.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BdHvA on October 06, 2018, 02:10:53 AM
The short read is that Unilever decides to maintain a London base. Doom and gloom Moby does not get it or see the big picture. The sun will also rise post Brexit over the UK.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-45545225

The pressures to stay/move were far more than what is noted in the above article.

There is this Clash song; Should I stay or should I leave . . .
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 06, 2018, 02:54:59 AM
Well news out today is that a deal may be on the horizon:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45768848

This is despite Barnier & Tusk apparently being strongly opposed to Chequers. Course there is still to see what comes out if a deal is reached. At the earliest by the next EU summit in a week or so time.

BdHvA, I think this is the position of a lot of companies. Many have a pro-Remain stance and throw their toys out of their pram by not getting their way. They are not interested in how the British people are suffering under the EU or by democratic values, they just consider their own short sighted interest. Those that come to their senses though realise it us foolish to put sentiment above reasoned judgement and see they will lose out to their competitors by going with emotion and ditching the UK. Their competitors will soon happily fill the void they create and then they will have real competition on their hands.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 07, 2018, 08:10:10 AM
The short read is that Unilever decides to maintain a London base. Doom and gloom Moby does not get it or see the big picture. The sun will also rise post Brexit over the UK.

Moby 'gets' the about face was pro-brexit SHAREHOLDERS ...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/unilever-hq-move-london-rotterdam-headquarters-netherlands-brexit-a8569861.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/unilever-hq-move-london-rotterdam-headquarters-netherlands-brexit-a8569861.html)

He wonders when BdHvA will check ANYTHING before proving he hasn't understood ....

Here's a clue ... I'm part of the Unilever Pension fund and get the news about what the group is up to ...

Now, let's discuss the car makers and AirBus leaving - if there's a 'no deal' / hard 'Brexit' ...

http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-bmw-follows-airbus-in-warning-of-cut-to-uk-operations/a-44359142 (http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-bmw-follows-airbus-in-warning-of-cut-to-uk-operations/a-44359142)

Brexit: BMW follows Airbus in warning of cut to UK operations

Some folks remind me of Hall and Oates ."out of touch" ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_8KR-n2fBQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_8KR-n2fBQ)




Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 07, 2018, 01:50:20 PM
Mobe, most of those are idle threats by big companies wishing to determine what happens in a country rather than the people. If we give into them we become worthless drones having no power over anything other than what they tell us and what they have stitched up in the backroom without our knowing. These companies know it's not in their best interests to move in doing so they would create a vacuum for rival companies and new start ups to fill. Then know that to give any rival the potential for such a big stake in a developed economy could within a few short years spell disaster for their company.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 07, 2018, 01:56:15 PM
Mobe, most of those are idle threats

Trenchie, they will be  pragmatic business decisions ...'drones' are those - who like Turkeys voted for such a scenario - where they vote away heir jibs

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 08, 2018, 02:09:22 AM
heir jibs

You've only just left the UK Mobe's and you’re already back talking the Irish lingo :) Remember back over here we say 'their jobs' ;D

I note that few are the companies that have actually moved rather than just talked about it and we are only about six months away from Brexit right now so I would say their forward planning have already been done and they intend operating in the UK after Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 08, 2018, 02:14:51 AM
where they vote away heir jibs

Vote away their jobs, of course..
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 08, 2018, 02:22:12 AM

I note that few are the companies that have actually moved rather than just talked about it and we are only about six months away from Brexit right now so I would say their forward planning have already been done and they intend operating in the UK after Brexit.

1/ Firstly we even have those MPs seeking a hard brexit setting up firms in Dublin - due to " 'Brexit' uncertainty" - ask Jacob - ( I'm - yet another -duplicitous politician ) Rees-Mogg)

2/ You simply can't be aware of the steps financial institutions are making to move - if 'we' end up crashing out - rather than agree..I know programmers who have been putting these measures in place since the referendum vote ... firms all over Europe are ready to cash in ...

3/ Now we have firms moving the annual maintenance shut down to March 2019 to avoid stock issues .... think they'lll hang around long - if they continue to have staffing / stock issues ?

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 09, 2018, 02:05:10 AM
1/ Firstly we even have those MPs seeking a hard brexit setting up firms in Dublin - due to " 'Brexit' uncertainty" - ask Jacob - ( I'm - yet another -duplicitous politician ) Rees-Mogg)

2/ You simply can't be aware of the steps financial institutions are making to move - if 'we' end up crashing out - rather than agree..I know programmers who have been putting these measures in place since the referendum vote ... firms all over Europe are ready to cash in ...

3/ Now we have firms moving the annual maintenance shut down to March 2019 to avoid stock issues .... think they'lll hang around long - if they continue to have staffing / stock issues ?

I don't care what some Brexit MP's are doing I didn't vote Brexit for them I voted Brexit due to my own decision.

Finiancial institutions think everything should be subordinate to their financial concerns. Their financial concerns are not my concerns so I'm not going to vote for what they want. If they get the hump they can go elsewhere for all I care, I don't work in a financial institution so it's not going to affect me. There will always be a few companies that choose to go elsewhere but the affect will be minimal. Essentially there will always be other companies eager to fill the void they are creating.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 09, 2018, 05:23:32 AM
There are already Labour shortsges in agriculture, hospitality, nursing homes and the building trade.. You aren't the most observant chap...

Did you spot Jag Rover giving their workers 2 weeks paid leave?

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 09, 2018, 11:25:24 AM
There are already Labour shortsges in agriculture, hospitality, nursing homes and the building trade.. You aren't the most observant chap...

Did you spot Jag Rover giving their workers 2 weeks paid leave?

Yes, but their trade is from sales to China which have been falling off recently, not the EU. They no doubt see it as an opportune moment to pull a stunt to think they can push things the way they want on the EU. Basically it's rich kids throwing their toys out off their pram by not getting their own way. They are used to getting their own way and they don't like it when they get told no they can't. Well the British public have told them no they can't and we're not backing down to them. They can get into all the strop they like, lol.

Well MP's back to Parliament now. Looks like 40 Brexiteer Tory politicians look set to vote against the Chequers Deal if it looks too much like a Customs Union in all but name. That would sink the Chequers Deal in Parliament unless Labour as a Party came in to vote for it and that looks unlikely as Corbyn has all but ruled that out. If it's too much like a customs union I too would support full Brexit. My main issue is that we have control of immigration but I don't think we should be too tied to the EU either so as to avoid all their blunders that they seem prone too and awkward relations.

So it looks like it could be a tenuous moment in which Chequers deal will either go through or fail. If it fails then it looks like a General Election is on the cards to fight out the 'How' as you put it.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 09, 2018, 02:15:40 PM
Yes, but their trade is from sales to China which have been falling off recently, not the EU.

Let me help you with yet another Trench howler ..

1/ China sales are falling ,,but look closer to home

2/ EU sales falling - including the UK ..the residuals on big diesels is are falling through the floor ..Got a 3 yr old  RR Evoque.. Was offered 32K as a trade in 3 month ago and one garage now offering 26K ...

The deals Jag / RR were doing on new diesels for Sept registrations were incredible ..same with BMW...  BMW 1 series, £2600 down and £240 month on a 4 yr PCP - 8k miles / yr

Consumer Confidence in the UK is crap ..   Ask yourself WHY..






Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 10, 2018, 01:35:07 AM
Well Mobers this article is quite pointedly where we're at, at the moment:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45789411

How could Theresa May get a Brexit deal through Parliament?

The thing for me is I don't think we should be paying the divorce bill. The EU is likely to end up going like Greece in the end the way they spend money. I very much doubt the member states will bail the EU out the money involved will be too great  and they will duck any association with being responsible for that debt. So we will have ended up paying and they won't.

My main criteria of reduced immigration looks likely to be fulfilled and so in that way it will be different from a customs union. If that was not fulfilled then no I would see no point in the deal being passed in Parliament. As it is although I'm now thinking we could be better of with a clean break I think the Chequers Deal could be thd only way forward. No other option has enough votes in Parliament to get it through and even another election won convincingly by either side may not settle the matter due to splits in either party.

As I said before and this article reiterates the responsible thing for MP's to do on all sides is to vote for this deal. Assuming it contains what we think we are getting. Otherwise it could all descend into chaos.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 10, 2018, 01:49:30 AM
Well Mobers this article is quite pointedly where we're at, at the moment:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45789411

What is clear - reading the article - is 'where we are at' is STILL massive uncertainty ... How you can read it ANY other way eludes me

What IS clear - Mrs May wants to avoid the 'third option' - letting US decide any final deal / 'no deal at all'..

Not asking why, again  ?

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 10, 2018, 04:28:32 AM
I don't care what some Brexit MP's are doing I didn't vote Brexit for them I voted Brexit due to my own decision.

Yes, it is clear you voted on some well dodgy pretexts that will not happen.

In the meantime those that got your vote are making plans to ensure what they lied to you about will not hurt them ...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 10, 2018, 11:07:27 AM
What is clear - reading the article - is 'where we are at' is STILL massive uncertainty ... How you can read it ANY other way eludes me

What IS clear - Mrs May wants to avoid the 'third option' - letting US decide any final deal / 'no deal at all'..

Not asking why, again  ?

At the moment there is still uncertainty, that's never really bothered me but I think this needs to all play out soon as it's been going on for a while now. It looks like things will start to get a bit more certain in the next couple of weeks or so as to whether we will get a deal coming forward or not. It's looking very likely now that a deal will come forward of some sorts but whether it will get enough MP's to vote for it is another matter. So as they say not long now :)

The reason for not letting us decide is clear, another referendum would add to the chaos not resolve it. I think if the Chequers Deal ends up not satisfying enough MP's it will not get through. Then the electorate will get another chance to express their view in another General Election as should be the case to resolve the matter.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 10, 2018, 11:24:42 AM
Yes, it is clear you voted on some well dodgy pretexts that will not happen.

In the meantime those that got your vote are making plans to ensure what they lied to you about will not hurt them ...

Not at all. I voted on the pretext to end 'Freedom of Movement' as it was causing myself and my country harm. From all the noises that have been coming out it sounds like this is the one of the Red Lines that won't be crossed and immigration to the UK will decrease and we'll have back control of our borders again.

I see this as important to our country's well being. I also see not having to be on the receiving end of EU blunders and inability to act quickly and effectively as important. Both of these should be satisfied by the Chequers Deal, if they are not I can't see it going through as it's the very basic requirements of the Brexiteer's. If such a deal was ever passed with Labour votes I think Mrs May would face a leadership election. I think though that the deal that comes forward will give in other less important areas and that may well be passable. I think nearly everyone acts in their own interests, I'm quite happy where I am on all of this.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 11, 2018, 01:33:31 AM


The reason for not letting us decide is clear,

Really?  Your perception of what Parliament is for is certainly different to mine ....  it is to serve us - not party interests - esp on matters where decisions made go FAR beyond being simply undone when the departing govt is kicked out

What DO you fear re a vote on any 'deal' / no deal' ....? ;)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 11, 2018, 01:41:17 AM
Not at all. I voted on the pretext to end 'Freedom of Movement' as it was causing myself and my country harm.

Based on WHAT pretext ?  Please tell us and I'll point out how you are mistaken with FACTS


From all the noises that have been coming out it sounds like this is the one of the Red Lines that won't be crossed and immigration to the UK will decrease and we'll have back control of our borders again.

The main red line - as I've told you ALL along - is that the DUP will not allow any deal that allows different treatment to the 'mainland' ( GB) and they won't tolerate a hard border

Let me explain this ...  My Russian friends went via GB to NI and onwards to IRL and back to the UK on a UK visa .... there are NO immigration checks or Customs control ..unless one is daft enough to fly Ryanair - no passport necessary to fly ...  THAT is THE 'red line' ... I've always pointed this out ..


I'll be happy when 'leavers' wake up and smell the Coffee - their 'wet dream' is unworkable
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 11, 2018, 11:36:06 AM
On the pretext that there is a housing shortage in this country as well as a need for the local population to be able to get on in work without facing a horde of East European competition which is an unfair environment to live in. Also that I don't appreciate immigration being easily circumvented, i.e FSU people gaining Polish, Hungarian, Romanian or Baltic States citizenship and then hence onto the UK. Though marriage is fair enough but current EU immigration policy is a joke. We deserve as a country the right to say who we wish to allow into our country as a citizen/resident not have it decided automatically for us.

You keep on about the DUP Mobers. The thing is they are only important enough as it is to feasibly have them onside for the vote on the Chequers Deal. At the moment their interests for no customs checks line up generally with Theresa's wish for their to be free trade/movement of goods. If this wax to change however and the DUP became a problem as is likely under a no Deal scenario then the votes would be sought from elsewhere and hence the need would come for a General Election to offload the DUP. So the power the DUP has is limited, if they push too far they could find themselves out of power and out of being able to influence anything.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Blighty on October 11, 2018, 02:36:59 PM

Let me explain this ...  My Russian friends went via GB to NI and onwards to IRL and back to the UK on a UK visa .... there are NO immigration checks or Customs control ..unless one is daft enough to fly Ryanair - no passport necessary to fly ...  THAT is THE 'red line' ... I've always pointed this out ..


Several years ago, I flew Aer Lingus from Heathrow to Cork. An immigration official was checking passports at Cork, but waved me through due to my British passport. Did your Russian friends cross into Ireland using the land border, where there are no checkpoints?

Website http://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ireland/entry-requirements states "Irish immigration officers will check the ID of all passengers arriving by air from the UK and may ask for proof of nationality, particularly if you were born outside the UK. "
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 11, 2018, 10:26:15 PM
On the pretext that there is a housing shortage in this country

Like many western nations - families are smaller and more mobile - so more houses are necessary - hence rents have gone trough the roof to meet demand ..  You've suggested YOU might want to be a landlord...  :popcorn:

Not that stopping 'freedom of movement' will stop this demand - as the industries needing non-critical skills labour have already made it clear the govt. must think again 

Now you - once more - bring up this 'bollox notion' of yours than Ukraine is now exporting 'Poles' to the EU -and by inference the UK ...  MANY Ukrainians can easily prove their Polish lineage - thanks to Churchill being party to allowing the Soviet land grabs of the  Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact)


FSU people gaining Polish, Hungarian, Romanian or Baltic States citizenship and then hence onto the UK. Though marriage is fair enough but current EU immigration policy is a joke. We deserve as a country the right to say who we wish to allow into our country as a citizen/resident not have it decided automatically for us.

The very act of Brexit has resulted in Labour shortages, already as a weaker Pound and uncertainty has resulted in EU/EEA nationals LEAVING and Labour shortages... One can now earn £240 / day on the build when it was £160 / day last year.. 


Here we have Trench admitting I was correct - all along .


You keep on about the DUP Mobers.

.and votes Mrs May will need can be obtained from  WHERE ?  We both know she's sunk without the support of the DUP and the DUP are sunk if they allow a no deal scenario


When are you going to post something that demonstrates you HAVE a clue - rather than simply demonstrating you're a clueless racist - but still seeks to 'import' an Eastern European woman - to 'save' her  ? ;))
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 11, 2018, 10:37:11 PM
Several years ago, I flew Aer Lingus from Heathrow to Cork. An immigration official was checking passports at Cork, but waved me through due to my British passport. Did your Russian friends cross into Ireland using the land border, where there are no checkpoints?

Website http://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ireland/entry-requirements states "Irish immigration officers will check the ID of all passengers arriving by air from the UK and may ask for proof of nationality, particularly if you were born outside the UK. "

Blighty, this always amazes me - just how little folk understand the Common Travel Area ..  We never encountered ANY immigration officials   I will NOT show my passport - if asked to prove who I am for security purposes - my driving licence suffices - it has my address and photo on it ...

When crossing between Scotland and N.Ireland I am NOT leaving the UK - nor entering international waters.

Once ON the island of Ireland - there are no checks as we enter / leave the UK at 70 MPH / 110 KPH

The penny is dropping for some folks that 'leave' lied - the NI / Eire border question is an unsolvable scenario - if they seek a 'hard brexit' ..








Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 13, 2018, 12:50:17 PM
Like many western nations - families are smaller and more mobile - so more houses are necessary - hence rents have gone trough the roof to meet demand ..  You've suggested YOU might want to be a landlord...  :popcorn:

Not that stopping 'freedom of movement' will stop this demand - as the industries needing non-critical skills labour have already made it clear the govt. must think again 

Now you - once more - bring up this 'bollox notion' of yours than Ukraine is now exporting 'Poles' to the EU -and by inference the UK ...  MANY Ukrainians can easily prove their Polish lineage - thanks to Churchill being party to allowing the Soviet land grabs of the  Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact)


The very act of Brexit has resulted in Labour shortages, already as a weaker Pound and uncertainty has resulted in EU/EEA nationals LEAVING and Labour shortages... One can now earn £240 / day on the build when it was £160 / day last year.. 


Here we have Trench admitting I was correct - all along .


.and votes Mrs May will need can be obtained from  WHERE ?  We both know she's sunk without the support of the DUP and the DUP are sunk if they allow a no deal scenario


When are you going to post something that demonstrates you HAVE a clue - rather than simply demonstrating you're a clueless racist - but still seeks to 'import' an Eastern European woman - to 'save' her  ? ;))

Mobe, nationality should be done on where that person was born or at least parent NOT grandparents & great grandparents. That is just taking the pee and leading to a disregard to our borders. If the EU wish to infer such a thing as EU citizenship then they should look to protect its value and the citizen status of its member nation not allow a free for all. We want to decide who comes into Britain not Poland. It's not long ago Poland was grovelling at our feet they were so poor, now they are telling who we will have in our country from peoples outside the EU it's a joke.

Mrs May can get the extra votes she needs by calling a General Election if she can't get them from the DUP or Labour. If she wins more seats in another General Election she won't need the DUP. Situation is if she can't get enough votes on her Cheques Deal then she really has little place to go other than call a General Election anyway. That is what you are not seeing!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 13, 2018, 03:46:05 PM
Mobe, nationality should be done on where that person was born or at least parent NOT grandparents & great grandparents.

Says who? You?))

The USA is one of the few nations that allows those born there to automatically be a citizen ...thus giving their parents rights...


What you are too daft to acknowledge is that Mrs May will not to put her vision to the test as she will be screwed and...as will the Tories.

The UK may break up and you really can be a little Englander))
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BdHvA on October 13, 2018, 06:14:28 PM
The UK may break up and you really can be a little Englander))

Following this discussion elsewhere and reading the rhetoric Moby may be correct that the United Kingdom may not be so United in due course.

I feel this is due to politicians who refuse to find a common ground.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 14, 2018, 02:41:16 PM
Says who? You?))

The USA is one of the few nations that allows those born there to automatically be a citizen ...thus giving their parents rights...


What you are too daft to acknowledge is that Mrs May will not to put her vision to the test as she will be screwed and...as will the Tories.

The UK may break up and you really can be a little Englander))

Says common sense, but then again common sense is not so common, especially where the EU is concerned. Or have you not noticed the UK has a housing crises on its hands and are irresponsible enough to let the hordes flood in. Yes I know you won't be one of the ones suffering misery because you are a rich guy that just cares about no. 1.

In an case going back to what you were saying earlier we can allow builder in from Eastern Europe on a temporary work visa. No need to give them citizenship and no need to let all East Europeans in.

Well, if latest reports are to be believed it looks like Mrs May might have been looking for a temporary customs union. This though looks set to fail if she tries it as both Tory Brexiteers and more importantly Labour say they will not support it. I personally think it's a godsend that Labour say they will not support it, a fudge as they put it. It essentially could bring things all to a head. My guess is that Theresa May step down and/or they'll be a General Election called.

What you fail to understand Mobers is that the DUP are potentially the easiest thing to shift. They have only 10 MP's to get past, if a General Election was called and the Tories get returned with more seats then that will be the hard Irish border issue out of the way.

My guess is and it may be worth me visiting the bookies on this one ;D is that Boris Johnson could take over as PM, a General Election be called, the Tories gain a majority and a Canada plus, plus trade agreement is made. It's an agreement after all that both the Brexiteer's & the EU agree on.

Either way, Scotland, Northern Ireland & Wales hold little sway in this game.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 14, 2018, 08:12:06 PM
Says common sense


'Common Sense' and Trench are like oil and water ;) From your 'dating tips' based on your 'experience' to your grasp of realpolitik re the Irish border Q !
 

 have you not noticed the UK has a housing crises on its hands

!/ I'm not a buy to let landlord - so your first 'contention' is nonsense

2/ Successive govts. in Ireland, UK, etc., have not built sufficient social housing - nothing to do with the EU

In an case going back to what you were saying earlier we can allow builder in from Eastern Europe on a temporary work visa. No need to give them citizenship and no need to let all East Europeans in.

'We' do not possess the infrastructure to implement and police such policies and they will be too costly / time consuming 


Well, if latest reports are to be believed it looks like Mrs May might have been looking for a temporary customs union. This though looks set to fail 

;)

It's EXACTLY the scenario I have long predicted - as if their is a 'no deal' scenario - there will be some sort of vote - be it a Gen Election / People's Vote and Mrs May and the Tories will be even weaker - as will the DUP


What you fail to understand Mobers is that the DUP are potentially the easiest thing to shift. They have only 10 MP's to get past, if a General Election was called and the Tories get returned with more seats then that will be the hard Irish border issue out of the way.

;)

You seriously think that the Tories / DUP will win more seats ?


My guess is and it may be worth me visiting the bookies on this one ;D is that Boris Johnson could take over as PM, a General Election be called, the Tories gain a majority and a Canada plus, plus trade agreement is made. It's an agreement after all that both the Brexiteer's & the EU agree on.

Either way, Scotland, Northern Ireland & Wales hold little sway in this game.

Given it was the Scots Tories that were the only ONLY part of the Tory party to gain seats and the DUP represent 30 percent of NI Voters- if the issue is Brexit - you'll forgive my guffaw at your political awareness comprehension.  Both these factors - just - ensured a Tory govt could - just - govern




I'd advise restraint re your urge to throw the money you tell us you are 'so careful' to accumulate ...but then the old expression about the fool and his money being easily parted may be truer than you knew... ?  :popcorn:

This is a mess, but I would rather vote in Labour - if they promise a vote on any Brexit 'no deal' scenario - as it is far better to remain part of the club than the damage done by leaving completely.

All Mrs May and her Brextremist idiots have done - is  just made UK PLC weaker - and we'll end up not being at the table to make rules we'll have to implement






Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Blighty on October 15, 2018, 09:04:02 AM
This is a mess, but I would rather vote in Labour - if they promise a vote on any Brexit 'no deal' scenario - as it is far better to remain part of the club than the damage done by leaving completely.

"Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first." ... see their website at
 http://labour.org.uk/manifesto/negotiating-brexit/

Big Len has also clearly stated his position ... see report at
 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-options-choice-exclude-remain-eu-len-mccluskey-labour-a8551086.html

Labour intend to continue with the Brexit negotiations ... they simply want power! ... remember all New Liebour's broken promises?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 15, 2018, 09:19:18 AM
"Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first." ... see their website at
 http://labour.org.uk/manifesto/negotiating-brexit/

From your VERY OWN suggested link :)))  The parts you 'forgot' to quote...

1/ We will end Theresa May’s reckless approach to Brexit, and seek to unite the country around a Brexit deal that works for every community in Britain.

2/ We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union – which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain. Labour will always put jobs and the economy first.

3/ A Labour government will immediately guarantee existing rights for all EU nationals living in Britain and secure reciprocal rights for UK citizens who have chosen to make their lives in EU countries. EU nationals do not just contribute to our society: they are part of our society. And they should not be used as bargaining chips.

4/ It is shameful that the Prime Minister rejected repeated attempts by Labour to resolve this issue before Article 50 was triggered. As a result three million EU nationals have suffered unnecessary uncertainty, as have the 1.2 million UK citizens living in the EU.

5/ A Conservative Brexit will weaken workers’ rights, deregulate the economy, slash corporate taxes, sideline Parliament and democratic accountability, and cut Britain off from our closest allies and most important trading partners.

6/ Labour recognises that leaving the EU with ‘no deal’ is the worst possible deal for Britain and that it would do damage to our economy and trade. We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option and, if needs be, negotiate transitional arrangements to avoid a ‘cliff-edge’ for the UK economy.

7/ The issues that affect our continent now will continue to do so in the future – and Labour will continue to work constructively with the EU and other European nations on issues such as climate change, refugee crises and counter-terrorism.


I can't believe you've not read the whole page and would seek to try to mislead - *I* can't believe I'm pushing a Labour policy ))






Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Blighty on October 15, 2018, 12:09:36 PM
I can't believe you've not read the whole page and would seek to try to mislead - *I* can't believe I'm pushing a Labour policy ))

I am not misleading! The wording is classic misleading Labour ... it states "We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option" ... they do not rule it out if it was the only option open to them!

They have started to backtrack on their pledge about Universal Credit ... see article
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-universal-credit-benefit-system-scrap-rework-rename-john-mcdonnell-shami-chakrabarti-a8583241.html

You are being naive to believe their rhetoric as it is just their attempt to gain Remainer votes ... hence my reference to "Liebour"!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 15, 2018, 12:18:31 PM
I readily admit to distrusting  Labour - but I do not read those words as 'open to interpretation'

JC is a known Europhobe - as is McDonald - but the grass roots ?

IF you seriously think leavers are being realistic / honest - there is no hope for reasonable dialogue ;) They would rather 'get their way' than worry about the Billions already lost due to uncertainty and failing to realise that as the party of govt they are split beyond redemption / trust, also



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 15, 2018, 01:27:30 PM


2/ Successive govts. in Ireland, UK, etc., have not built sufficient social housing - nothing to do with the EU

'We' do not possess the infrastructure to implement and police such policies and they will be too costly / time consuming 


;)

It's EXACTLY the scenario I have long predicted - as if their is a 'no deal' scenario - there will be some sort of vote - be it a Gen Election / People's Vote and Mrs May and the Tories will be even weaker - as will the DUP

;)

You seriously think that the Tories / DUP will win more seats ?

Given it was the Scots Tories that were the only ONLY part of the Tory party to gain seats and the DUP represent 30 percent of NI Voters- if the issue is Brexit - you'll forgive my guffaw at your political awareness comprehension.  Both these factors - just - ensured a Tory govt could - just - govern




I'd advise restraint re your urge to throw the money you tell us you are 'so careful' to accumulate ...but then the old expression about the fool and his money being easily parted may be truer than you knew... ?  :popcorn:

This is a mess, but I would rather vote in Labour - if they promise a vote on any Brexit 'no deal' scenario - as it is far better to remain part of the club than the damage done by leaving completely.

All Mrs May and her Brextremist idiots have done - is  just made UK PLC weaker - and we'll end up not being at the table to make rules we'll have to implement

Mobe they are called Work Visa's & Border Force - of course we can issue these and police them just like any other country does. If the person can't prove the right to work with an Employer that's it they can't get employment and no point them being here dwindling their money.

I see you have now changed you tune and are making out you predicted the scenario of a General Election. I would like to see the post where you predicted that. To my mind you just kept reitterating that the gov would fall if it went against the DUP in a no confidence vote. I repeatedly told you no the Gov would call a General Election first to avoid looking weak.

Having to follow the rules without being at the table is exactly why we need to leave the EU AND the customs  union. Being their bitch is not in our Nations best interest, we would be stronger outside the EU. No hefty membership fees to pay, no costs of EU faiures, more trading partners, etc.

JC is a canny old boy, no I don't think he is overly keen on the EU or the customs union. If he were he would accept the fudge suggested this week of a temporary customs union in the hope this would become a permanent feature & slide back into the EU. Instead he knows he can knock it back possibly forcing a GE after the Budget. He can get away with that without upsetting the Remoan idiots in his party as it can be seen as an undesirable temporary situation whe in fact it would likely lead them to what they want. He's hoping for the situation to play out in his favour, but the case is Labour are just as divided as the Tories when it comes to the EU, they are just not having to deal with it.

The next couple of weeks till the Budget should hopefully prove decisive.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 15, 2018, 09:50:38 PM
Mobe they are called Work Visa's & Border Force - of course we can issue these and police them just like any other country does.

Trenchcoat - allow me to prove you are simply clueless

A Russian arrives in the UK and travels via a ferry to N.Ireland - how does the UK force who if said Russian is in the UK or Ireland ?

Another Ukrainian arrives in Ireland - no need for a Visa and travels to the north - they catch a ferry to Scotland - how does the 'Borderforce' know they are in the UK ?

THAT is the current Common Travel Agreement scenario -  the DUP will NOT allow a hard border or checks between the UK and Ireland and IF we crashed out - do you think there'll be a border between N.Ireland and Eire - or checks between N.I and GB.....?   My stance hasn't changed ..I've always stated that this issue wold mean a compromise and the fall of the govt if a no deal scenario occurs - please check

Part of dating is listening and remembering what t'other person said... ;)












Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 16, 2018, 02:36:03 AM
Matters little Mobers, without being able to prove a right to work with Employers they would likely be unable to earn any money to stay. They would also likey to struggle with accomodation. It is at any rate better than allowing them a legal right to citizenship. Also the UK Border Force/Police can and does operate spot checks on suspected illegals throughout the UK and sometimes randomly on the street. All in all it may not be 100 percent foolproof system but it is at least a start from which we can improve.  The EU system is a 'who cares' let anyone flood in system of irresponsibility. Needless to say homelessness has been riding year on year as a result of the EU acting irresponsibly.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 16, 2018, 03:46:37 AM
Matters little Mobers, without being able to prove a right to work with Employers they would likely be unable to earn any money to stay.

Surely you are being deliberately obtuse?

1/ In both scenarios - they would be in the UK illegally

2/ It would be down to the BF to find them

3/ No doubt they would work on the black or have family members

4/ No passport ?  Where to remove them TO ?

It is at any rate better than allowing them a legal right to citizenship.

Ri-ight ... So it would be 'ok' for you or Nigel Farage to 'import' German and French wives / g/friends - but discourage workers ?;)


Also the UK Border Force/Police can and does operate spot checks on suspected illegals throughout the UK and sometimes randomly on the street. All in all it may not be 100 percent foolproof system but it is at least a start from which we can improve.  The EU system is a 'who cares' let anyone flood in system of irresponsibility. Needless to say homelessness has been riding year on year as a result of the EU acting irresponsibly.

When there is a legal system - immigrants join the state system and contribute to the tax and National security schemes.

Please tell us how a BF agent is going to randomly stop a EU citizen who has crossed the seamless border ?

You need to read up:

http://www.gov.uk/police-powers-to-stop-and-search-your-rights (http://www.gov.uk/police-powers-to-stop-and-search-your-rights)

This is going to be a bigger headache if the UK Police / BF do not have access to EU records


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 16, 2018, 04:13:02 AM
Surely you are being deliberately obtuse?

1/ In both scenarios - they would be in the UK illegally

2/ It would be down to the BF to find them

3/ No doubt they would work on the black or have family members

4/ No passport ?  Where to remove them TO ?

Ri-ight ... So it would be 'ok' for you or Nigel Farage to 'import' German and French wives / g/friends - but discourage workers ?;)


When there is a legal system - immigrants join the state system and contribute to the tax and National security schemes.

Please tell us how a BF agent is going to randomly stop a EU citizen who has crossed the seamless border ?

You need to read up:

http://www.gov.uk/police-powers-to-stop-and-search-your-rights (http://www.gov.uk/police-powers-to-stop-and-search-your-rights)

This is going to be a bigger headache if the UK Police / BF do not have access to EU records

They come from somewhere, immigration would work it out. Immigrants take jobs away from locals and mess up the whole structure of society in doing so. They disrupt the natural flow of locals being employed then progresses up the up chain in their careers.

The days of the black market as it were are long gone. With stuff becoming digital and online it's harder and harder for the black market to operate. At some point any black market that remains fall foul of the system. In any rate it tends to be less people willing to chance it than limitless immigration.

Locals not displaced by immigrants pay tax & NI plus they then don't add to dole queue numbers. Look how unemployment has been dropping already since immigration numbers having fallen of since the Brexit referendum :)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45875599

No doubt good news to go of for any possible General Election!

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 16, 2018, 05:00:26 AM
They come from somewhere, immigration would work it out.

You have clearly NEVER dealt with Visas or Border Force - they are under paid over worked and under funded

Immigrants take jobs away from locals and mess up the whole structure of society in doing so. They disrupt the natural flow of locals being employed then progresses up the up chain in their careers.

That is  proven untruth ... Does the UK have high unemployment within the EU - with EU citizens able to move freely ? NO 

The days of the black market as it were are long gone.

I beg to differ - your wish will bring those days back - look at the USA .. aren't they 'digital' enough ?

 
Locals not displaced by immigrants pay tax & NI plus they then don't add to dole queue numbers. Look how unemployment has been dropping already since immigration numbers having fallen of since the Brexit referendum :)

Unemployment is falling EU wide and they aren't leaving ...   The UK was booming before the madness of the June 2016 referendum and our economy was leading the western world out of recession

You are either deceiving yourself or just daft

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 20, 2018, 06:42:03 AM
 Well Mobers a chance for you to go out and Remoan in public with fellow Remoaners today ;D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45925542

Being so much into the Remain camp I expect you'll already be there!

For some reason they don't seem to have noticed that there already was a people's vote and they lost  :D

Well not long to go now, I think Theresa will have to decide in December if she is going to call it out in her party with a Leadership Election, John Major style or they might call her out. If a decent deal is not forthcoming that is and that is now looking increasingly unlikely. Either that or she will have to move firmly into the no deal camp and call a General Election.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 21, 2018, 01:06:14 AM
Well Mobers a chance for you to go out and Remoan in public with fellow Remoaners today ;D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45925542

Being so much into the Remain camp I expect you'll already be there!

Sadly not ..   I admire their spirit - but think the best way to get a vote on what the govt presents as a 'deal ' or 'no deal' is a referendum on the govt ,,,! 


Well not long to go now, I think Theresa will have to decide in December if she is going to call it out in her party with a Leadership Election, John Major style or they might call her out. If a decent deal is not forthcoming that is and that is now looking increasingly unlikely. Either that or she will have to move firmly into the no deal camp and call a General Election.

Interesting that you mention John Major  -  a remainer and the best PM we've had in my life time..  His tenure was wrecked by whinging anti-EU 'bastards' and ensured Blair coming to power ...

Unless the brextremist Tories wake up ... we're going to get a Labour govt - and a chance to vote on any deal - again
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 21, 2018, 04:33:40 AM
Sadly not ..   I admire their spirit - but think the best way to get a vote on what the govt presents as a 'deal ' or 'no deal' is a referendum on the govt ,,,! 


Interesting that you mention John Major  -  a remainer and the best PM we've had in my life time..  His tenure was wrecked by whinging anti-EU 'bastards' and ensured Blair coming to power ...

Unless the brextremist Tories wake up ... we're going to get a Labour govt - and a chance to vote on any deal - again

Ah, keyboard warrior it is then.

Mobe, I think you must be one of the few that thinks John Major was any good as PM. His premiership was economic recession and mass unemployment thoughout all of his years in office. In the end he & the Tory party as a whole were so unpopular they suffered the worst General Election defeats in their party's history. The electorate were fed up with years of never ending economic downturn and Major's weak leadership. Personally I think he's a decent guy but he was a complete disaster as PM and seemingly oblivious to the economic hardships people were suffering due to his inability to take any action.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 21, 2018, 08:07:06 AM
Ah, keyboard warrior it is then.

...and in recognisable English ? ..

Mobe, I think you must be one of the few that thinks John Major was any good as PM. His premiership was economic recession and mass unemployment thoughout all of his years in office. In the end he & the Tory party as a whole were so unpopular they suffered the worst General Election defeats in their party's history. The electorate were fed up with years of never ending economic downturn and Major's weak leadership. Personally I think he's a decent guy but he was a complete disaster as PM and seemingly oblivious to the economic hardships people were suffering due to his inability to take any action.

Your 'opinions' on subjects from dating to history to Brexit are based - as usual  on bollox ideas / concepts / notions

1/ Major inherited  the recession from Thatcher

2/ He oversaw the Tories being re-elected in 1992 - against all odds - by his soap-box oratories

3/ He was 'undone' by :

a) Euro-'septic' Bastards -  history repeating itself

AND

b) numerous Tory MP scandals - that suggested 4 terms had made the Conservative  Party MPs complacent

I
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 21, 2018, 09:08:00 AM
Another Brexit vote? Possibly. The latest protest in London demanding a second Brexit vote numbered 700,000 according to some estimates. Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, a number of MPs and celebrities were on hand for the march.

The protests and the size of the protests are likely to grow as the March 29, 2019 deadline for the UK to leave the EU approaches. If the protests grow in size and frequency UK PM Theresa May might be left with little choice but to call another referendum. 

How would a second referendum happen? If May is able to get a deal with Brussels then it must be approved by Parliament. Labour will vote against anything to do with Brexit and there are an unknown number of Conservative MPs that either don't want to leave the EU or are undecided on leaving. Get enough of the undecided to vote against the deal and Parliament won't approve the deal. That means either a general election or a second referendum. Perhaps both. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45925542
http://www.ft.com/content/237d49de-c249-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 21, 2018, 11:42:12 AM
Another Brexit vote? Possibly. The latest protest in London demanding a second Brexit vote numbered 700,000 according to some estimates. Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, a number of MPs and celebrities were on hand for the march.

The protests and the size of the protests are likely to grow as the March 29, 2019 deadline for the UK to leave the EU approaches. If the protests grow in size and frequency UK PM Theresa May might be left with little choice but to call another referendum. 

How would a second referendum happen? If May is able to get a deal with Brussels then it must be approved by Parliament. Labour will vote against anything to do with Brexit and there are an unknown number of Conservative MPs that either don't want to leave the EU or are undecided on leaving. Get enough of the undecided to vote against the deal and Parliament won't approve the deal. That means either a general election or a second referendum. Perhaps both. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45925542
http://www.ft.com/content/237d49de-c249-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a

Well as said in the article Dave, Theresa May has already ruled out a second referendum and I think for good reason - that it would solve nothing only add to the confusion. There are essentially four camps in this argument:

- Leave EU completely (no deal)

- Leave EU with a free trade deal (Chequers deal)

- Join/Remain in the EU Customs Union

- Remain in the EU

So big question would be what two options to put to voters in a second referendum, or three, or four. Even if there was a vote in favour of no deal or Chequers Deal it alters nothing, the votes are still needed in Parliament. Many Remain MP's don't respect the reult of the first referendum, I don't see another one changing their mind nor any other politicians position whatever the outcome.

Even Jeremy Corbyn knows a second referendum is putting the cart before the horse. He has called for a General Election and that will be what it will take to resolve this ultimately if Theresa can't get the Chequers Deal done by December.

I personally think Leave completely with no deal would the the best option as it gives a nice clean break were it to be achievable. At present that looks a long shot though so Theresa's Chequers Deal is at least a feasible option if she can complete on it. She could get it through Parliament but it would be tight and it's not assured she would get enough votes. A few Labour (Leave) rebels would probably back it and if she can get enough of her party and the DUP on side without too many rebels she might just squeeze it.

The other option is a Customs Union with the EU. Theoretically there are probably enough MP's from the Tories & Labour to get this through. Theresa is unlikely to go for this though it would not only almost certainly end in a leadership contest but even if she won that it would split her party in two, probably permanently. UKIP could also return to haunt them in elections.

Personally I think a lot of Remainers, MP's included talk about a Customs Union as the easy option, etc. but I don't think it is. If either Labour or the Tories tried to do an agreement with the EU on it I think it would run in to just ax much difficulty as the present negotiations. It's just at the moment they are not present as it's not thd option on the table being discussed. I think the EU would try to squeeze us more than ever, higher contributions to the EU budget, enforcement of policies we don't agree with, etc. I think if a Customs Union were on the table splits would emerge and arguing would begin just as it is now just on differing topics.

It's why though I'm not keen on Chequers I think with all the work done so far it's the option that could sort this all out in the shortest possible time.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on October 21, 2018, 12:17:30 PM
Another Brexit vote? Possibly.


It may be the new trend in the UK. If you don't like the popular vote on issues or on politicians, protest non stop until you get to vote again. Do any of those hundreds of thousands of protestors have a job and a life?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on October 21, 2018, 12:42:48 PM
I think the general public (on both sides) was very ill-informed about the consequences when the first vote was held.

At least now, there should be a better understanding of what it would be like if Brexit continues.

Don't know if it's possible, but . . . I would like to see a procedure whereby a 2/3 majority vote outcome would be required to overturn the first vote. 

If the remain could get 66.67 percent or more of the vote, this would lessen considerably the opposition and calls for a best 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 5 type of re-voting.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Chelseaboy on October 21, 2018, 05:06:59 PM
Why should a 700.000 protest march force a second referendum when millions voted to remain anyway ?


So if the Brexiteers have an 800,000 strong protest does that mean we have a third referendum if a second referendum goes against them ?

Of course a proportion of remainers will hold protests..they only believe in democracy when it suits their own agenda.
Just as the Democrat supporters continue to protest in USA..does that mean there should be another Presidency election in USA now ?

The referendum was held..the remainers lost...done.

As for a better understanding of the consequences of leaving the EU...well most of it is hyperbole from economists who have a track record of getting their predictions totally wrong.

Then we have Mark Carney..does he get any prediction correct ?


The fact is NO-ONE knows for sure what the future holds for the UK outside of the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 22, 2018, 01:55:46 AM
Why should a 700.000 protest march force a second referendum when millions voted to remain anyway ?

Simples..

All the voters better understand the cons and pros - of 'Brexit'


The people can have a say on any final 'deal'


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on October 22, 2018, 09:08:31 AM
Why should a 700.000 protest march force a second referendum when millions voted to remain anyway ?


So if the Brexiteers have an 800,000 strong protest does that mean we have a third referendum if a second referendum goes against them ?

Of course a proportion of remainers will hold protests..they only believe in democracy when it suits their own agenda.
Just as the Democrat supporters continue to protest in USA..does that mean there should be another Presidency election in USA now ?

The referendum was held..the remainers lost...done.

As for a better understanding of the consequences of leaving the EU...well most of it is hyperbole from economists who have a track record of getting their predictions totally wrong.

Then we have Mark Carney..does he get any prediction correct ?


The fact is NO-ONE knows for sure what the future holds for the UK outside of the EU.
You’re dealing with Moby here. The poster boy for the remainers.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 22, 2018, 09:30:00 AM
Why should a 700.000 protest march force a second referendum when millions voted to remain anyway ?


So if the Brexiteers have an 800,000 strong protest does that mean we have a third referendum if a second referendum goes against them ?

Of course a proportion of remainers will hold protests..they only believe in democracy when it suits their own agenda.
Just as the Democrat supporters continue to protest in USA..does that mean there should be another Presidency election in USA now ?

The referendum was held..the remainers lost...done.

As for a better understanding of the consequences of leaving the EU...well most of it is hyperbole from economists who have a track record of getting their predictions totally wrong.

Then we have Mark Carney..does he get any prediction correct ?


The fact is NO-ONE knows for sure what the future holds for the UK outside of the EU.

I don't think this single protest is going to bring about a general election or a second referendum. However I think there'll be further protests. Done properly each successive protest should be larger, more vocal, get more news coverage, get more MPs involved, etc.

Some MPs might begin working for another referendum or general election. If May can't get the votes needed in Parliament to pass her deal with Brussels the only alternatives, IMO, will be a general election and/or a second referendum. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 22, 2018, 11:19:04 AM
I don't think

would suffice ;)

The protests are to make it clear that if the govt ignore 'us' they  can be sure of a good kicking - if another party promises such a vote ....

Despite what the govt may say - they need the DUP to survive and THEY will dump the govt if they are forced into a 'no deal' scenario - as they know they might not get re-elected ..  ( N.Ireland is 70 percent Remain

The Scots Tories were reported to have agreed to support the govt - but - again Scotland is heavily remain - so they would be ensuring their funerals

Then there's the chance that Labour will promise the earth to get into govt and the DUP will not be relevant in any new govt






Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on October 22, 2018, 11:31:50 AM
would suffice ;)

The protests are to make it clear that if the govt ignore 'us' they  can be sure of a good kicking - if another party promises such a vote ....

Despite what the govt may say - they need the DUP to survive and THEY will dump the govt if they are forced into a 'no deal' scenario - as they know they might not get re-elected ..  ( N.Ireland is 70 percent Remain

The Scots Tories were reported to have agreed to support the govt - but - again Scotland is heavily remain - so they would be ensuring their funerals

Then there's the chance that Labour will promise the earth to get into govt and the DUP will not be relevant in any new govt
And what do you think is going to happen if any party ignores the referendum and rides roughshod over the voices of 17.4 million voters. Eh?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on October 22, 2018, 11:43:43 AM
Posted in the other place.......absolutely spot on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh11RYjheUY

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 22, 2018, 11:56:00 AM
You might as well have used a rabid dog 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on October 22, 2018, 12:06:25 PM
You might as well have used a rabid dog
You seem upset. Rubbed you the wrong way with a few home truths it seems.

Carry on Remoaning.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: GQBlues on October 22, 2018, 12:41:26 PM
Posted in the other place.......absolutely spot on.




Man, no dog in the UK's current political climate fight, but listening to this video it almost have a hauntingly similar note with our current political situation at home. Leavers being the Republicans, remainers the Dems. Especially on the topic of 'open borders'.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on October 22, 2018, 01:39:39 PM

Man, no dog in the UK's current political climate fight, but listening to this video it almost have a hauntingly similar note with our current political situation at home. Leavers being the Republicans, remainers the Dems. Especially on the topic of 'open borders'.
Didn’t you know, Remainers/Democrats- cut from the same cloth.  Any means to their end and employ the same tools dirty tricks to achieve their nefarious goals.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: GQBlues on October 22, 2018, 01:48:53 PM
Didn’t you know, Remainers/Democrats- cut from the same cloth.  Any means to their end and employ the same tools dirty tricks to achieve their nefarious goals.

Admittedly, I paid little attention to this situation as I figured it was a done deal before once the votes came in. But...

From my pov, the EU isn't losing a 'member', but rather gaining a potential trade partner in close proximity. Mehopes they find a mutually equitable solution to this...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 22, 2018, 03:22:57 PM
You seem upset. Rubbed you the wrong way with a few home truths it seems.

Carry on Remoaning.

'Upset' was not, nor is, the emotion I felt / feel ....

To be quite clear - It was derisive and mocking of anyone that would post this as 'vindication' .. :popcorn:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 22, 2018, 10:42:15 PM
And what do you think is going to happen if any party ignores the referendum and rides roughshod over the voices of 17.4 million voters. Eh?

Why are you SO scared of a vote on any 'dea' having the option to retain the status quo ?

You KNOW that having seen the abyss and fibs of leave - that 'Brexit' would be finished


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on October 23, 2018, 04:11:47 AM
Why are you SO scared of a vote on any 'dea' having the option to retain the status quo ?

You KNOW that having seen the abyss and fibs of leave - that 'Brexit' would be finished
Here’s a good example of Moby doing the MobyShuffle also known as the MobySwerve. 😂😂
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on October 23, 2018, 06:12:50 AM
Why are you SO scared of a vote on any 'dea' having the option to retain the status quo ?

You KNOW that having seen the abyss and fibs of leave - that 'Brexit' would be finished

Mobys been reading the Guardian again. It’s where he gets his silly liberal nonsense from.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 23, 2018, 09:39:48 AM
Here’s a good example of Moby doing the MobyShuffle also known as the MobySwerve

JG, 

You really are confused... you cannot seem to figure out that it is you that keeps doing the swerving

1/ you ran and hid having 'announced' I stiffed some folks,financially

2/ you've had your reasoning why a 'people's vote on any 'deal is indeed democratic and all you can do is spout bollox...

So, there's a pattern here...

JG makes it up... Moby the Tory voting 'Liberal Guardian reader' ....


I read the Tele(tory)graph and and few other journals ....

Can you be accurate / correct about anything...?



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 24, 2018, 05:47:21 AM
BAD - of course

1/ Pound weakest for six weeks  - from the Brexit supporting Express

Pound v US dollar: Exchange rate at six-week low as UK manufacturing slows again

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/925730/GBP-v-USD-pound-dollar-exchange-rate-UK-manufacturing (http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/925730/GBP-v-USD-pound-dollar-exchange-rate-UK-manufacturing)



2/ More money down the drain on a 'vanity project' that was 'saving' us billions  :wallbash:

'Poor quality' preparations at key Brexit department risks billions of pounds in exports, warns watchdog

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-exports-uk-eu-whitehall-industry-food-environment-nao-a8533411.html


3/ Nobel-winning scientists issue stark Brexit warning
http://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/23/health/science-uk-brexit-intl/index.html (http://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/23/health/science-uk-brexit-intl/index.html)


4/ The UK firm, founded by Brexit supporter Sir James Dyson, has chosen Singapore for its planned electric car production facility.

http://news.sky.com/story/dyson-to-build-new-electric-car-in-singapore-11533056 (http://news.sky.com/story/dyson-to-build-new-electric-car-in-singapore-11533056)

Typical - another duplicitous 'Brexit' supporter

Just a small selection of this weeks 'Brexit' will be good for you 'leavers'
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 24, 2018, 09:19:39 AM
BAD - of course

1/ Pound weakest for six weeks  - from the Brexit supporting Express

Pound v US dollar: Exchange rate at six-week low as UK manufacturing slows again

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/925730/GBP-v-USD-pound-dollar-exchange-rate-UK-manufacturing (http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/925730/GBP-v-USD-pound-dollar-exchange-rate-UK-manufacturing)

The pound was at about $1.43 a few months back so it's unlikely its recent drop is related to Brexit.


2/ More money down the drain on a 'vanity project' that was 'saving' us billions  :wallbash:

'Poor quality' preparations at key Brexit department risks billions of pounds in exports, warns watchdog

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-exports-uk-eu-whitehall-industry-food-environment-nao-a8533411.html


Same politicians were incapable of managing their departments prior to Brexit.

3/ Nobel-winning scientists issue stark Brexit warning
http://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/23/health/science-uk-brexit-intl/index.html (http://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/23/health/science-uk-brexit-intl/index.html)

Science was done in the UK long before the EU existed.


4/ The UK firm, founded by Brexit supporter Sir James Dyson, has chosen Singapore for its planned electric car production facility.

http://news.sky.com/story/dyson-to-build-new-electric-car-in-singapore-11533056 (http://news.sky.com/story/dyson-to-build-new-electric-car-in-singapore-11533056)

Typical - another duplicitous 'Brexit' supporter

Just a small selection of this weeks 'Brexit' will be good for you counters

Those business people and companies that support remain are still doing business outside of the EU. Why? Could it be that the locations outside of the EU are the best locations for their particular business.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: GQBlues on October 24, 2018, 10:31:38 AM
Of all the US's allies, the UK and Australia had been the staunchest, so I hope this meeting (http://www.oann.com/president-trump-looking-to-strike-british-american-trade-deal-according-to-u-k-trade-secretary/) will prove mutually equitable.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 24, 2018, 12:08:19 PM
The pound was at about $1.43 a few months back so it's unlikely its recent drop is related to Brexit.

DaveNY - WHY, why do you feel the need to prove you're posting about stuff you simply do not understand ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp)

Sterling is still around $1.293 amid political and Brexit uncertainty.



Same politicians were incapable of managing their departments prior to Brexit.

Indeed - the current PM headed  the Home ( interior) ministry ...don't we know .... her ( pro remain) successor had to fall on her sword re the PMs cock ups ....

Science was done in the UK long before the EU existed.

So now a US Lawyer knows more than THE Scientists ? :popcorn:  Did you READ why a 'Brexit' will be bad ?  Clearly not ...


Those business people and companies that support remain are still doing business outside of the EU. Why? Could it be that the locations outside of the EU are the best locations for their particular business.

That's it?  Your 'riposte' ?

The UK hasn't really got a car industry of it's own ...VW, Peugeot, BMW, Toyota, Nissan and Honda have plants and Landrover / Jaguar are INDIAN owned... did you bother to check their feeling on 'Brexit' ?

Once more - clearly not ...

So, when we have a guy who IS a Brit and pushing how Brexit is 'good' and announces will open  the plant in SINGAPORE - which has JUST done a tariff free deal with the EU - you might get just how completely bogus the prime movers in leave were / are ...



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 24, 2018, 02:35:36 PM
DaveNY - WHY, why do you feel the need to prove you're posting about stuff you simply do not understand ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp)

Sterling is still around $1.293 amid political and Brexit uncertainty.


The euro is down against the dollar over the last year. Is that also the fault of Brexit?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=1Y

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 24, 2018, 03:42:32 PM
Dave's got a good point, Brexit hasn't really had any noticable affect on the economy of either the UK or the EU. Not yet anyway, and I don't think it will till after we leave. The financial ups & downs I think reflect the doubts of the money men. In that yes the UK did dip a fair bit on the result of the Brexit referendum result and that has stayed. However, it doesn't seem to have had any detrimental affect on the economy, better if anything.

I think as Dave has pointed out, the financial guys concerns are no longer fixated on the potential affected on the UK but have now come to realise that the EU are likely to have a big question mark hanging over their economy also.

Theoretically the UK is better placed than the EU, they import more to the UK than the UK exports to them. A drop of in importing to the UK will affect them badly, a drop of in UK ex ports to the EU will be hardly noticeable. Plus the UK will have its hands free to encourage importing & exporting with non-EU countries so any drop off gap can be easily filled.

I personally think that odds are the extra month will allow for the Ireland border & backstop situation to be resolved. If it's not near enough to being resolved then the question will be if it's close enough to be resolved in the further few or whether it is unresolvable and hence a no deal scenario. I don't think anyone wants this to drag on through an extended transition period, no one perhaps other than Mobers who would miss the arguing too much ;D 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 24, 2018, 08:19:22 PM
The euro is down against the dollar over the last year. Is that also the fault of Brexit?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=1Y

 :ROFL:

4 points - you 'answered' ONE with a question about another currency - 'forgetting' to address the GBP's issues and why !

you ducked the other three and ignored the fact that the GBP is down against the Dollar / Euro, Swiss Franc, Rouble.....

http://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/forex-markets-wall-street-dollar-yen-swiss-franc-in-focus.html


The UK has it's own currency and it is easier to identify reasons for fluctuations - but as you asked, the link above suggests "economic growth could be flagging across the euro zone."

Any chance you could actually address the other THREE points? 



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 24, 2018, 08:27:07 PM
:ROFL:

4 points - you 'answered' ONE with a question about another currency - 'forgetting' to address the GBP's issues and why !

you ducked the other three and ignored the fact that the GBP is down against the Dollar / Euro, Swiss Franc, Rouble.....

http://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/forex-markets-wall-street-dollar-yen-swiss-franc-in-focus.html


The UK has it's own currency and it is easier to identify reasons for fluctuations - but as you asked, the link above suggests "economic growth could be flagging across the euro zone."

Any chance you could actually address the other THREE points?

The Swiss franc is also down against the USD.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CHF&to=USD&view=1Y

As for ignoring your other 3 rants, believe it or not I'm not here to correct your many errors. I only have so many hours in a day to correct your many errors. While I'm on RWD I'm also working to earn a living and watching kids.

Thankfully they're better behaved than you.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 24, 2018, 09:07:03 PM
The Swiss franc is also down against the USD.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CHF&to=USD&view=1Y

Yet ANOTHER 'red Herring' ?

Let's put that one to bed first ... If you'd bothered to check

1/ The Swiss Franc is more closely aligned to the Euro than the Swiss admit

2/ Like the Euro -it's value over 1/ 2 years may vary - but it's been largely the same.. 1/1 v. the USD UNLIKE the GBP - which is the currency of the nation that IS the subject of this thread ....

As for ignoring your other 3 rants, believe it or not I'm not here to correct your many errors.

'Errors' / 'Rants'? 

This proves you didn't bother to read ?

FACT:  The National Audit Office don't make 'errors' - they stated a fact about 'readiness' - in the event of a 'no deal' scenario and COST

FACT: A key Brexit supporter chose to locate a plant in Singapore - which has just done a free trade deal with the EU

FACT: The GBP is down against a basket of currencies because of
a) Falling manufacturing output

b) Increasing likelihood of a 'no deal' scenario and UK Political turmoil - the Good Ship 'UK PLC' is essentially rudderless and her 'Captain' has so many 'mutinous factions' as to be useless.



I only have so many hours in a day to correct your many errors.

 :cluebat: Seeing you keep posting them ( errors) , you aren't spending your time, wisely

While I'm on RWD I'm also working to earn a living and watching kids.

Thankfully they're better behaved than you.

Then you have far more important things to do, than posting patent bollox about stuff you clearly haven't a clue about ;)   I hope they haven't inherited your inability to realise when you've been busted

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 27, 2018, 03:52:13 PM
Well judging by all the arguments here it looks like Brexiteer support is holding up firmly. It appears there are several members here including myself that are unwavering in their support of Brexit. Meanwhile, I don't recall any members saying they have changed their mind from Leave to Remain on here a phenomena that Mobe talks about but few seem to have come across, lol.

Well this Monday is Budget Day in the UK. We will see how likely the Tories may think a General Election may be on the cards by how generous the usually tight fisted Chancellor is.

I'm expecting there will be a announcement of an end to austerity and at least a few short term give aways and some warm words to go along with it. They won't want to be hit by that one in another GE. If there is a very strong liklihood of a GE then he may be very bullish about the economy and might really make big on the give aways. Should be interesting to see.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 27, 2018, 05:04:47 PM
Well judging by all the arguments here it looks like Brexiteer support is holding up firmly.

As ever, our Trenchy shows he's not at the races re reading situations

The UK's very own audit office ...
" warned that queues and delays were likely at border crossings under a no-deal Brexit, saying exporters did not have time to prepare for new rules."



It appears there are several members here including myself that are unwavering in their support of Brexit. Meanwhile, I don't recall any members saying they have changed their mind from Leave to Remain on here a phenomena that Mobe talks about but few seem to have come across, lol.

My Aunt, Uncle and Coz all voted leave - but having realised the consequences for N.Ireland's peace process and the - already - negative cost implications from extra civil servants to HUGE tax receipt black holes - would vote remain

That increase is reflected in N.Ireland and Scotland


Well this Monday is Budget Day in the UK. We will see how likely the Tories may think a General Election may be on the cards by how generous the usually tight fisted Chancellor is.

You think suggesting 'austerity is over' when manufacturing output is down and with it consumer confidence is going to 'swing it' ? ;)


I'm expecting there will be a announcement of an end to austerity and at least a few short term give aways and some warm words to go along with it. They won't want to be hit by that one in another GE. If there is a very strong liklihood of a GE then he may be very bullish about the economy and might really make big on the give aways. Should be interesting to see.

Matey, as I keep telling you - this govt fears an early General Election as much it does a 'Peoples Vote on any deal...

It will be gone ...   The Tories have realised - too late (?) that being split on Europe loses elections ... 

Labour have two Europhobes at the top and a grass roots that are pro remain - what  will be  interesting is whether the nation will trust Labour and whether the DUP will have many MPs left - bearing in mind that if the election is about Brexit - they will be kicked in the nuts



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 28, 2018, 06:26:55 PM
As ever, our Trenchy shows he's not at the races re reading situations

The UK's very own audit office ...
" warned that queues and delays were likely at border crossings under a no-deal Brexit, saying exporters did not have time to prepare for new rules."

My Aunt, Uncle and Coz all voted leave - but having realised the consequences for N.Ireland's peace process and the - already - negative cost implications from extra civil servants to HUGE tax receipt black holes - would vote remain

That increase is reflected in N.Ireland and Scotland


You think suggesting 'austerity is over' when manufacturing output is down and with it consumer confidence is going to 'swing it' ? ;)


Matey, as I keep telling you - this govt fears an early General Election as much it does a 'Peoples Vote on any deal...

It will be gone ...   The Tories have realised - too late (?) that being split on Europe loses elections ... 

Labour have two Europhobes at the top and a grass roots that are pro remain - what  will be  interesting is whether the nation will trust Labour and whether the DUP will have many MPs left - bearing in mind that if the election is about Brexit - they will be kicked in the nuts

Ah, I see we have some Irish turncoats here ;D Either that or they got fed up of arguing with you about if all the time, lol.

Well Budget Day today and we'll see if the usually boring Chancellor comes up with thd goods. Though I rather fear he may be blinkered as to the need to get people onside if a GE becomes apparent. I personally don't think it will be possible to have another budget if no deal is apparent so he woukd be silly to hedge his bets on that I think.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 29, 2018, 01:43:39 AM
Ah, I see we have some Irish turncoats here ;D Either that or they got fed up of arguing with you about if all the time, lol.

Well Budget Day today and we'll see if the usually boring Chancellor comes up with thd goods. Though I rather fear he may be blinkered as to the need to get people onside if a GE becomes apparent. I personally don't think it will be possible to have another budget if no deal is apparent so he woukd be silly to hedge his bets on that I think.

So nothing to counter the National Audit report or the govt running scared of the population's mind set ? ;)



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on October 29, 2018, 09:06:33 AM
So nothing to counter the National Audit report or the govt running scared of the population's mind set ? ;)
I’ve just coined a new phrase.

MobyFactsTM

To take account of all the ‘bollox’ eminating from your orifice.


😂😂😂
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 29, 2018, 11:17:12 AM
Most interesting point to come out of this budget appears to be:

"Opening the use of e-passport gates at airports - currently available to people from Europe - to those from the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Japan."

Looks like these are going to be the big five nations the UK will be looking to do trade with among others and trade deals most likely already drafted out for post Brexit.

Most of the give away's - i.e raising Personal Allowance & the Minimum wage will come in April next year - with the March Spring Budget potentially being upgraded to a full budget. So will likely be after any General Election if there is one. That give potential for the Chancellor to row back on these, so potentially a false carrot held out to the electorate to vote for them. Small figs given out to mental health, the eco crowd, UC claimants & house buyers to placate them.

Looks to me that the government is still on the fence over whether a deal might be done or not and is playing a cunning game hedging its bets in case they need to go to a GE. I personally think that he may be playing it too cunningly by hanging out the carrot with people potentially left asking if the Tories can be trusted to deliver on them in a post GE.

Interestingly the commemorative Brexit coin was only announced in the post Budget document to come out in the Spring next year. I'm guessing he did'nt wish to alienate Remoaners by galvanizing them by mentioning it in case of any potential forthcoming GE.

Meanwhile I'm skeptical that the Irish backstop is just being used as an excuse by the EU to try and scupper Brexit, its essentially ridiculous measure to ask for an agreement to back up an agreement. That at any rate should all come out by December or soon after.

At any rate good news for you US, Canadian & Aus guys on here flying into the UK :) 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 29, 2018, 02:43:38 PM
Hearing over the Budget reviews on the news it also appears little is being done to help the housing market - planning was brought up as an area requiring an urgent need of a major overhaul to speed up planning applications and make it simpler & easier to get planning permission for housing builds. To my mind this says to me that the Chancellor didn't want to do all the work on this as in the event if a General Election it would mean he would have done a lot if extra work needlessly (in case they lost) as the Labour Party if it came to power would get the benefit of all of his work for the budget and planning changes on this. Along with the quick but easier to implement give away on personal allowance and the hike in the minimum/living wage that tells me that he looked to tackle stuff in the budget that would be little work for him but have a positive benefit (theoretically) in a GE. A Chancellor at the start/near the start of a 5 year term in office or confident of an ongoing administration would tend to tackle the larger issues such as planning/housing since they would know they would have the next 3-5 years to see it through & get the benefit of having done. So to my mind it looks like a General Election is on the cards as a real possibility if a deal can not be done soon.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 29, 2018, 03:09:11 PM


Meanwhile I'm skeptical that the Irish backstop is just being used as an excuse by the EU to try and scupper Brexit, its essentially ridiculous measure to ask for an agreement to back up an agreement. That at any rate should all come out by December or soon after.

At any rate good news for you US, Canadian & Aus guys on here flying into the UK :)

The daily Trench stupidity ..  from dating 'advice' to 'Brexit' continues ;)

1/  Your first sentence is contradictory... Based on your daft viewpoint I THINK you are trying to say that the backstop plan re the Irish border  is a ruse to scupper ''Brexit' ? 

Yup - you've clearly used the border and  know all about the GFA and CTA and the UK and Irish govt constant promises to protect them ... no matter what.. :deadhorse:


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 29, 2018, 03:35:39 PM
Angela Merkel will not run for reelection in 2021 nor will she seek reelection of her party later this year. Regional elections in Hesse and Bavaria for her Christian Democrats and its Bavaria-only sister party were a disaster. Merkel on Monday said she saw the results as a “clear signal that things can’t go on as they are”.

Germany is often referred to as the heart of the European economy and is by far the strongest economy in Europe. How will losing Merkel as the German chancellor affect the German and European economies?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/29/angela-merkel-wont-seek-re-election-as-cdu-party-leader
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 29, 2018, 04:17:30 PM
The daily Trench stupidity ..  from dating 'advice' to 'Brexit' continues ;)

1/  Your first sentence is contradictory... Based on your daft viewpoint I THINK you are trying to say that the backstop plan re the Irish border  is a ruse to scupper ''Brexit' ? 

Yup - you've clearly used the border and  know all about the GFA and CTA and the UK and Irish govt constant promises to protect them ... no matter what.. :deadhorse:

For next Christmas Mobe I'll get you a commorative Brexit Coin ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 29, 2018, 04:49:23 PM
Angela Merkel will not run for reelection in 2021 nor will she seek reelection of her party later this year. Regional elections in Hesse and Bavaria for her Christian Democrats and its Bavaria-only sister party were a disaster. Merkel on Monday said she saw the results as a “clear signal that things can’t go on as they are”.

Germany is often referred to as the heart of the European economy and is by far the strongest economy in Europe. How will losing Merkel as the German chancellor affect the German and European economies?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/29/angela-merkel-wont-seek-re-election-as-cdu-party-leader

Merkel's downfall is a result of her aligning herself to the EU during the asylum crises. He let in loads of asyum seekers to the detriment of her people, her ego got the better of her. Her people are not thanking her for it with what they are having to endure from it. The far right are becoming popular once again I'm Germany as a result. Her move to show how Germany has moved on from the Nazi era to more liberal times has backfired on her greatly and brought the very politics she wished to trounce back as a contender.

I personally don't think her leaving will affect the German economy much. They are an industrious and hard working people. The bigger problem is that unless someone replaces her with presence the EU will be left without someone with leadreship quality in its leading economy.

Expect instead for the UK economy to rival the German economy once Brexit is achieved. Britain does not have the economic woes of France or Italy. Unleashed from the EU Britain will be able to do again what it has always done best, be international traders. The UK will be able to leverage this area and it's financial clout to bring it's economy into contention with Germany for the leading economy in Europe for the first time.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_and_social_rankings_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe

This map shows how much Eastern Bloc EU members have benefited from EU money taken from leading EU nation economies such as the UK. All the East European Nations outside the EU are in Red. Apparently the EU feel Eastern Europe is owed money from leading EU nation economies despite all our hard work over time without good reason other than their project to improve their economy at the expense of our economy.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BdHvA on October 29, 2018, 06:22:52 PM
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_and_social_rankings_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe

This map shows how much Eastern Bloc EU members have benefited from EU money taken from leading EU nation economies such as the UK. All the East European Nations outside the EU are in Red. Apparently the EU feel Eastern Europe is owed money from leading EU nation economies despite all our hard work over time without good reason other than their project to improve their economy at the expense of our economy.

Sorry Trench, that is not what the article shows. Why not read it again, look at it again, and take out your sharp pencil. The Eastern European countries have indeed benefited from the largess of the EU. But that is not the problem in the big picture.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 29, 2018, 08:05:31 PM
Merkel's downfall is a result of her aligning herself to the EU during the asylum crises. He let in loads of asyum seekers to the detriment of her people, her ego got the better of her. Her people are not thanking her for it with what they are having to endure from it. The far right are becoming popular once again I'm Germany as a result. Her move to show how Germany has moved on from the Nazi era to more liberal times has backfired on her greatly and brought the very politics she wished to trounce back as a contender.

I personally don't think her leaving will affect the German economy much. They are an industrious and hard working people. The bigger problem is that unless someone replaces her with presence the EU will be left without someone with leadreship quality in its leading economy.

Expect instead for the UK economy to rival the German economy once Brexit is achieved. Britain does not have the economic woes of France or Italy. Unleashed from the EU Britain will be able to do again what it has always done best, be international traders. The UK will be able to leverage this area and it's financial clout to bring it's economy into contention with Germany for the leading economy in Europe for the first time.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_and_social_rankings_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe

This map shows how much Eastern Bloc EU members have benefited from EU money taken from leading EU nation economies such as the UK. All the East European Nations outside the EU are in Red. Apparently the EU feel Eastern Europe is owed money from leading EU nation economies despite all our hard work over time without good reason other than their project to improve their economy at the expense of our economy.

There's no doubt that EU money has boosted the economies of many FSU states in the EU. The Baltic states and Poland are prime examples. The average monthly wage in these countries is significantly higher than in Russia. And East and West Germany reunification has also boosted the wages in the former East Germany.

I've spoken to many Russians over the years who've noticed this and wondered aloud why Russians have been left behind. Many Russians have gone even further and said why have we been left behind and the oligarchs have gotten rich? This is perhaps one of the reasons why so many Russians have left for the west.

As for the UK overtaking Germany in the near future I doubt it. The UK only has about 80% the population of Germany and about 70% the land area. Both vital components if a nation is to prosper in the area of manufacturing. Maybe in the more distant future the UK will be able to push its economy past Germany's. If that is to be done the UK will need to find new jobs for their people. Perhaps more IT, banking, ecommerce, etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_average_wage
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 29, 2018, 08:35:23 PM


As for the UK overtaking Germany in the near future I doubt it. The UK only has about 80% the population of Germany and about 70% the land area.


Not sure why you would believe such  are vital ?   Plenty of nations with smaller land masses and higher population densities - e.g. Netherlands / Luxembourg to puncture your assertions

BTW the UK is only 67% of Germany by land mass (242495 km squared   357386 km squared, respectively)   ..I know you DID say 'about' but  ;)

Thanks for the interesting stats



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 29, 2018, 09:02:12 PM
Not sure why you would believe such  are vital ?   Plenty of nations with smaller land masses and higher population densities - e.g. Netherlands / Luxembourg to puncture your assertions

BTW the UK is only 67% of Germany by land mass (242495 km squared   357386 km squared, respectively)   ..I know you DID say 'about' but  ;)

Thanks for the interesting stats

None of those countries you mentioned are close in GDP to the UK or Germany. Both countries have low populations and small land area. As to why population and land area are important if a country is service oriented it needs educated people for such services as banking, IT, etc. If a country has a large manufacturing component they need land for the manufacturing and production of materials for manufacturing, steel, aluminum, coal mining, etc. Then of course the country needs people to mine the coal, make the steel and manufacture the products. In general neither the Netherlands or Luxembourg can match Germany or the UK in either area.


     
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 29, 2018, 09:20:00 PM
None of those countries you mentioned are close in GDP to the UK or Germany.


   

Hmm, You rely on pure GDP ?

I'm much more a fan of GDP per capita as a more valid stat ..

Luxembourg tops the stats..Germany is 17th and the UK 22nd

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita)



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 29, 2018, 10:40:31 PM
Hmm, You rely on pure GDP ?

I'm much more a fan of GDP per capita as a more valid stat ..

Luxembourg tops the stats..Germany is 17th and the UK 22nd

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita)

Do you think Luxembourg would allow a few million of the asylum seekers that are crossing the Med to move in? What about after Brexit? Maybe a few million Brits want to move to the continent?

Luxembourg only has 600,000 people, of course it only has 2600 km2. Might be a little crowded if a few million Brits or asylum seekers moved in?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 12:58:06 AM
Do you think Luxembourg would allow a few million of the asylum seekers that are crossing the Med to move in?

They have open borders, are part of Schengen and did not opt out of the Directive on handing sudden influxes of refugees ...

What about after Brexit? Maybe a few million Brits want to move to the continent?

Who knows,

For now, I'd be more worried about the Brits who  cannot get citizenship's of other EU nations - those living IN a third EU nation - in the event of a 'no deal' scenario

Luxembourg only has 600,000 people, of course it only has 2600 km2. Might be a little crowded if a few million Brits or asylum seekers moved in?

Your red-herring is plain daft - on what basis would such a claim be ?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 30, 2018, 04:02:39 AM

For now, I'd be more worried about the Brits who  cannot get citizenship's of other EU nations - those living IN a third EU nation - in the event of a 'no deal' scenario

They can either get out before 31st March or go the Irish route if they put the time in. So it won't be a completely closed option for them. Likewise immigration to other non-EU countries may become easier once the flood gates of immigrants from Eastern Europe into thd UK are closed. Otherwise countries just view the UK as a channel through which a lot more people than they would hope for would pass such as the US for example.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 04:13:38 AM
They can either get out before 31st March or go the Irish route if they put the time in.


Just the sort of dim witted 'riposte! I would expect from you....though you will now try to suggest it was 'humour'

So it won't be a completely closed option for them. Likewise immigration to other non-EU countries may become easier once the flood gates of immigrants from Eastern Europe into thd UK are closed. Otherwise countries just view the UK as a channel through which a lot more people than they would hope for would pass such as the US for example.

))

Another insight into Trench's 'cognitive skills

So, now all the E.European  immigrants are 'rushing'  here to eventually get US green cards ?))))

Your daily posts prove that brainer folk voted to stay...))
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 30, 2018, 05:34:30 AM
Not humour at all Mobe. That's what you're not getting about Brexit Mobe. It offers the UK the chance of preferable terms not just with the EU but with many other countries both financially and person wise. Particularly though for the EU it gives us a more preferable position with regard to immigration to the UK. It helps reduce the amount of people coming in from the EU whilst still engaging on decent terms with the EU So safeguarding us from too lax immigration policy. As a popular destination of choice for most East Europeans unfortunately even being a non-schengen member is not enough. Brexit will give us chance to have the exact immigration policy we need.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 05:51:52 AM
Not humour at all Mobe. That's what you're not getting about Brexit Mobe. It offers the UK the chance of preferable terms not just with the EU but with many other countries both financially and person wise. Particularly though for the EU it gives us a more preferable position with regard to immigration to the UK. It helps reduce the amount of people coming in from the EU whilst still engaging on decent terms with the EU So safeguarding us from too lax immigration policy. As a popular destination of choice for most East Europeans unfortunately even being a non-schengen member is not enough. Brexit will give us chance to have the exact immigration policy we need.

1/ "Preferable terms" : WTO default trade  tariffs ? ..'Coz that is what Brexit wack-jobs seek

2/ Entertain us with how the UK leaving the UK will 'stop' migrants seeking to get here ? IF you think things through -it could be possible that EU nations will not be too fussy at stopping them - what's their incentive ? It is a constant source of hilarity to me that Dover voted to leave - as they are more tha likely to see an upsurge in attempts to arrive and do you think the French will take 'em back ?

3/ I'm already witnessing the 'immigration policy we need' in the form of hoops non EU citizens who are critical skills compliant ... a 'cap' of 20,700 a year of super smart people ....Please define your idea of 'utopia' ..banning all these migrants ? .... 

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 30, 2018, 07:11:04 AM
1/ "Preferable terms" : WTO default trade  tariffs ? ..'Coz that is what Brexit wack-jobs seek

2/ Entertain us with how the UK leaving the UK will 'stop' migrants seeking to get here ? IF you think things through -it could be possible that EU nations will not be too fussy at stopping them - what's their incentive ? It is a constant source of hilarity to me that Dover voted to leave - as they are more tha likely to see an upsurge in attempts to arrive and do you think the French will take 'em back ?

3/ I'm already witnessing the 'immigration policy we need' in the form of hoops non EU citizens who are critical skills compliant ... a 'cap' of 20,700 a year of super smart people ....Please define your idea of 'utopia' ..banning all these migrants ? ....

Migrants find it hard crossing the English channel Mobe, they did before plus they will find it difficult/of not impossible to find employment. For the Polish, etc they will find it easier to go to other EU countries, France perhaps, I'm sure they'll be pleased :)

Really Mobe, there are enough super smart people here, you're talking to one ;D no need to import them. We are often touted as having one of the best University system's in the world - and then we go cap in hand wanting to source smart/skilled people from around the world  :cluebat:

We need confidence in ourselves and not do wimping out and crawling for the easy solution that causes long term damage to our nation. Namely snubbing the talent we already got for some ready baked bods from abroad for a quick profit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 30, 2018, 07:13:51 AM

Sorry Trench, that is not what the article shows. Why not read it again, look at it again, and take out your sharp pencil. The Eastern European countries have indeed benefited from the largess of the EU. But that is not the problem in the big picture.


Essentially those baltic states and countries like Poland would be red like Ukraine, Belarus, etc if the EU did not hand them vast amounts of money to do up their countries.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 07:32:28 AM
Migrants find it hard crossing the English channel Mobe, they did before plus they will find it difficult/of not impossible to find employment. For the Polish, etc they will find it easier to go to other EU countries, France perhaps, I'm sure they'll be pleased :)

I know this is hard for you, but France ensures the illegals don't get on the ferries / through the tunnel. Do you REALLY think they'll be so like minded for a UK crashing out of the EU ?


Really Mobe, there are enough super smart people here, you're talking to one ;D no need to import them. We are often touted as having one of the best University system's in the world - and then we go cap in hand wanting to source smart/skilled people from around the world  :cluebat:

You just demonstrated why your self-anointed status is risible ! 

Do you not understand that many 'British' success stories were immigrants ?  The UK's University Chancellors, and scientists do not seem to sure your viewpoint


We need confidence in ourselves and not do wimping out and crawling for the easy solution that causes long term damage to our nation. Namely snubbing the talent we already got for some ready baked bods from abroad for a quick profit.

There's job shortages in many  sectors - esp the NHS - before Brexit - because EU / EEA staff are LEAVING

Our NHS will be worse and the govt is going to LIFT Visa caps to 'cope' ... 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/nhs-immigration-cap-staff-shortage-training-fast-track-visa-a8399046.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/nhs-immigration-cap-staff-shortage-training-fast-track-visa-a8399046.html)

"the government will announce that it is abolishing the “cap” for recruiting nurses and doctors from outside the EU – and presumably, post-Brexit, from inside the EU, too. That such a decision had become inevitable, however, does not make it either right or desirable – and I say that as someone who has recently found it nigh impossible to make a GP appointment without a delay of at least three weeks, or at all.

Not that NHS staff shortages – or the government’s response to them – are anything new."

Another subject that you are demonstrably unaware of ..



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BdHvA on October 30, 2018, 08:09:59 AM
Essentially those baltic states and countries like Poland would be red like Ukraine, Belarus, etc if the EU did not hand them vast amounts of money to do up their countries.


WOW! Is all I can say you are amazing. An anti-immigrant clod head, and an ignorant and biased man. It is amusing how you will try to wiggle almost as much as Moby.

Lets deal with simples for those who are challenged.

1990 Poland leaves the Soviet sphere as the wall comes down. This process began a decade earlier.

1993 The European Union is formed.

2003 Poland votes to join the Euro Community.

The investment that came from Brussels was rather limited. Foreign companies indeed did invest in Poland and this was essential for there success. But the reality of Poland today is due to Polish leaders and people. Sadly the same can not be said of Ukraine.


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 08:34:48 AM

 It is amusing how you will try to wiggle almost as much as Moby.

Lets deal ..


..With BdHvA's 'compliment'

You have yet to point out ONE instance of this ( do you mean) wRiggle ?...


Remember where you are - on here - if you make something up - I AM allowed to ask you to back it up  ;)

OK...  Trenchie ... can't wait for any E,European lady you might suggest coming to live with you  reading your posts ..

 



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 30, 2018, 10:27:08 AM


WOW! Is all I can say you are amazing. An anti-immigrant clod head, and an ignorant and biased man. It is amusing how you will try to wiggle almost as much as Moby.

Lets deal with simples for those who are challenged.

1990 Poland leaves the Soviet sphere as the wall comes down. This process began a decade earlier.

1993 The European Union is formed.

2003 Poland votes to join the Euro Community.

The investment that came from Brussels was rather limited. Foreign companies indeed did invest in Poland and this was essential for there success. But the reality of Poland today is due to Polish leaders and people. Sadly the same can not be said of Ukraine.


This shows total member contributions, as you can see the UK put in a lot more than Poland, etc:

http://www.statista.com/statistics/316691/european-union-eu-budget-share-of-contributions/

... and this shows who gets more back than they put in:

http://inews.co.uk/news/charts/much-uk-pays-eu-much-get-back/

In addition the EU Charge us for membership but East European nations actually get paid for being members, lol

Another problem is the EU takes on a lot of debt on top of all the contributions to pay for even more stuff, moreso in East European Nations. That is going to come home to roost at some point, perhaps another European Crises in the next decade. I think we will be pleased to be standing well clear of that one, think Great Depression 1930's type of scenes.

Before Poland joined the EU they were just as poor as Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc they were a basket case. Polish were stowing away on ships trying to get into the UK, not in big numbers but the odd few here and there. With big money from the EU and money being sent back from Polish workers in the UK (also helping them to alleviate their unemployemnt) Poland is now in a more prosperous state than similar countries such as Ukraine & Belarus as Dave has told you also. I don't think we are both wrong on this it is a known fact, plus I have actually 'been' to these countries  :D

The only point you have something on is that Ukrainian people are in general I feel of a different make up to Polish people. I'm not saying Ukrainains are lazy, some work long hours though not necessarily hard work but Polish people are very work minded. I find once you get to know them they can be a bit more relaxed but work seems to be where they start at in life. The same I do not feel is true of most Ukrainians, they are a bit more relaxed and enjoyment orientateed I think, some can no doubt work hard but I don't think they start from that point in life.

This has been a recent dilemna for me, why? because I find that Belarus people have a similar mindset to Polish people, they too seem seem to start from a work mindset, but that is ,oving off the point a bit here so I'll bring it up in a new thread: http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=23249.0
 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 10:45:18 AM
This shows total member contributions, as you can see the UK put in a lot more than Poland, etc:

http://www.statista.com/statistics/316691/european-union-eu-budget-share-of-contributions/

... and this shows who gets more back than they put in:

http://inews.co.uk/news/charts/much-uk-pays-eu-much-get-back/

In addition the EU Charge us for membership but East European nations actually get paid for being members, lol

and ? ..  Did you stop to think - even for a second - that emerging economies have more spending power ?  Poles came here, paid their taxes, national insurance and dud the crappy jobs Brits were too lazy to do  - They opened new biz and the UK shops made sure their favourites are available here  .. a bit like the Irish having Guinness

Another problem is the EU takes on a lot of debt on top of all the contributions to pay for even more stuff, moreso in East European Nations. That is going to come home to roost at some point, perhaps another European Crises in the next decade. I think we will be pleased to be standing well clear of that one, think Great Depression 1930's type of scenes.

I don't know where you are 'learning' this stuff, but the doom merchants have seen a few crunch point moments and the Euro is stronger than the Dollar - since it kicked off ...Whoops

Before Poland joined the EU they were just as poor as Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc they were a basket case. Polish were stowing away on ships trying to get into the UK, not in big numbers but the odd few here and there. With big money from the EU and money being sent back from Polish workers in the UK (also helping them to alleviate their unemployemnt) Poland is now in a more prosperous state than similar countries such as Ukraine & Belarus as Dave has told you also. I don't think we are both wrong on this it is a known fact, plus I have actually 'been' to these countries  :D

You might have been - but as usual your powers of deduction - from dating to economics are constantly 'faulty'

Many Poles who came here left because the GBP got weeker v their currency and THEIR economy has improved - whilst our - thanks to 'Brexit uncertainty' has stalled. 


The only point you have something on is that Ukrainian people are in general I feel of a different make up to Polish people. I'm not saying Ukrainains are lazy, some work long hours though not necessarily hard work but Polish people are very work minded. I find once you get to know them they can be a bit more relaxed but work seems to be where they start at in life. The same I do not feel is true of most Ukrainians, they are a bit more relaxed and enjoyment orientateed I think, some can no doubt work hard but I don't think they start from that point in life.

Methinks you have begun to wake up .. The Poles came here and learnt  - a lot  - I see it with Former Soviet Union folk that come here... they adapt and become hard working.  I do not think it is a 'national thang' ... those that 'get on their bikes' - to better themselves - tend to be the ones most likely to succeed


This has been a recent dilemna for me, why? because I find that Belarus people have a similar mindset to Polish people, they too seem seem to start from a work mindset, but that is ,oving off the point a bit here so I'll bring it up in a new thread.

Based on other 'revelations' of yours - I'm sure it with be 'interesting' .   Many Belarus folk have had the ability to visit Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.  I know some REALLY smart folk from Belarus and am sure they would benefit from closer relations with the EU - if Moscow allowed

'Sorry' but where's the negative re allowing people to improve themselves ? 

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 30, 2018, 11:11:07 AM
and ? ..  Did you stop to think - even for a second - that emerging economies have more spending power ?  Poles came here, paid their taxes, national insurance and dud the crappy jobs Brits were too lazy to do

'Sorry' but where's the negative re allowing people to improve themselves ?

That's BS Mobe, 'Someone' did those jobs before the Polish came here & the Polish were only allowed in about 10 years ago. That's right British people did those jobs. Its a complate lie that British people don't want to do those jobs. its the migrant huggers stealing the same lie that Mexicans do jobs US people don't want to do as a justification for them being here, its complete BS.

Think fruit picking jobs in the suimmer - many studets are off them so they can and did use to do those jobs, unemployed locals too who find holding down one same job for too long too difficult, etc.

If they want to improve themselves they can do in their own country and improve their country along with it.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 11:46:00 AM
That's BS Mobe, 'Someone' did those jobs before the Polish came here & the Polish were only allowed in about 10 years ago.

GOTCHA
what was unemployment then and what is it now - You are BUSTED

There's loads of vacancies and Brits like you would rather work 3 day weeks ;)

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 01:14:04 PM
While you are picking yourself off the floor

Yet another example of the chaos awaiting employers and EU nationals quite legally working and residing

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46035919 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46035919)

"Firms may have to do "rigorous" checks on EU staff if there is a no-deal Brexit, a minister has suggested.

Caroline Nokes said employers wouldn't be able to tell the difference between people who had settled in the UK and those who had just arrived.

She also revealed the system for EU citizens to register for settled status still didn't work on Apple phones."

No doubt the same will apply to school kids, university students in the event the UK Govt cannot agree a deal with the EU  :deadhorse:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Blighty on October 30, 2018, 01:21:46 PM
@msmob  ... You made a sweeping statement that "I don't know where you are 'learning' this stuff, but the doom merchants have seen a few crunch point moments and the Euro is stronger than the Dollar - since it kicked off ...Whoops"

That is not true when looking at the 10 years history of the €/$ exchange rate at
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=10Y
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 01:35:50 PM
@msmob  ... You made a sweeping statement ..

It was not a sweeping statement ...  I said from inception to the present day

http://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency (http://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency)

Is the graph more often above or below the inception line ? Do you understand what that means ?

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 01:59:39 PM
There'll be more Irish living in the UK than Poles, soon ;)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46030552 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46030552)

Irish passport applications from British applicants skyrocket


Not sure why they're shown in 'blue' when the EU passports are always reddish / brown

Trenchy, mentioned those coming into the UK might get speedier entrance than EU citizens ...    I expect he won't be popping over to France or going for romantic breaks in Prague for the weekend  - given he'll be watching me sail through while he queues !
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Blighty on October 30, 2018, 02:15:18 PM
It was not a sweeping statement ...  I said from inception to the present day

http://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency (http://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency)

Is the graph more often above or below the inception line ? Do you understand what that means ?


The initial value of the € on 04/01/1999 is a historical fact, which is irrelevant to the Brexit discusssion. You obviously live in the past, and fail to understand the importance of the recent trends for the €. It is weakening against the dollar, just like sterling.

Your argumentative style on both RWD and RUA is noted. I am a reasonable person, and do not have time to argue with you over the internet! You think that everyone is an idiot, whilst you alone are a genius. Keep taking the pills!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 30, 2018, 02:38:01 PM
and ? ..  Did you stop to think - even for a second - that emerging economies have more spending power ?

msmob will you please stop posting on subjects you don't understand? How could an emerging economy such as Poland have more spending power than an established economy such as the UK? The UK is a net contributor to the EU, Poland is not.

Once again you're demonstrating you don't know what you're talking about. Spending power is " Authority granted by a legislature to an administration (government) to spend public funds in accordance with an approved budget."

The UK, Germany, France - the big economies in the EU have far more spending power than Poland, the Baltic States and other new EU members.

So how could Poland or the Baltic States have more spending power than the UK?

http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/spending-power.html
http://inews.co.uk/news/charts/much-uk-pays-eu-much-get-back/

Poles came here, paid their taxes, national insurance and dud the crappy jobs Brits were too lazy to do  - They opened new biz and the UK shops made sure their favourites are available here  .. a bit like the Irish having Guinness


The Poles did the crappy jobs in the UK because they didn't speak English and/or didn't have a needed skill set for employment in the UK. Of course those Poles who were in the UK illegally had to take crappy jobs because they were in the UK illegally.

I don't know where you are 'learning' this stuff, but the doom merchants have seen a few crunch point moments and the Euro is stronger than the Dollar - since it kicked off ...Whoops

Another fallacy. Just because one currency is stronger than another it does NOT mean the economy of the stronger currency is better than that of the weaker currency. For example, the Japanese economy is larger and stronger than the Canadian dollar yet 1 Canadian dollar is worth about 86 Japanese yen.


Many Poles who came here left because the GBP got weeker v their currency and THEIR economy has improved - whilst our - thanks to 'Brexit uncertainty' has stalled. 

Maybe some Poles left because of the weak GBP or maybe they left for other reasons. Many immigrants, legal and illegal, are economic migrants. They go where they can get work and then return home when they've earned enough.

Poles could also have gotten homesick. As someone who's lived abroad I can say I've often missed the comforts of American living. 

Some migrants collect citizenships from living and working abroad. Maybe the Poles simply moved to the UK to get UK citizenship and once that was done they returned home or moved elsewhere? I've known people that have collected 2 or 3 additional citizenships from living and working abroad. Having several legal passports makes travel easier and in many cases it can be passed on to their children. After all a UK passport is far better than a Polish passport for business and travel.

Polish businesses operating in Poland and elsewhere were paying top dollar to recruit educated Poles to work for them. Maybe that was an incentive to leave the UK.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 30, 2018, 04:25:39 PM


WOW! Is all I can say you are amazing. An anti-immigrant clod head, and an ignorant and biased man. It is amusing how you will try to wiggle almost as much as Moby.

If you're saying Trench is "An anti-immigrant clod head, and an ignorant and biased man" then you'll have to say the Polish government and the majority of Poles in Poland are at least as bad. The Polish government has repeatedly said they are not going to take any asylum seekers. The government has repeatedly said Poland is for Poles. I guess they don't even want any Brits or Dutch.

Then there are other countries that are at least as bad as Poland for refusing to allow migrants to live, work and get citizenship in their countries. Economic powerhouses such as Japan, South Korea and China. China has by far the largest GDP(PPP). Almost 20% larger than the US. These countries could easily afford to take in tens of thousands of migrants but won't. They must be anti-immigrant using your logic. Probably racists?


What about Russia? The largest country in the world by area. Well over twice the size of the US with a stagnating population that is only about 40% the size of the US population. Since Russia already has a large Muslim population with many Muslims in large rural areas Russia could easily take in several million Muslim migrants but doesn't take in any of those flowing out of the Middle East and Africa. They must be anti-immigrant using your logic. Probably racists?

http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/02/poland-refuses-mid-east-migrants
http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/383647,Poland-only-accepts-returning-Poles-under-migration-policy-PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

Lets deal with simples for those who are challenged.

1990 Poland leaves the Soviet sphere as the wall comes down. This process began a decade earlier.

1993 The European Union is formed.

2003 Poland votes to join the Euro Community.

The investment that came from Brussels was rather limited. Foreign companies indeed did invest in Poland and this was essential for there success. But the reality of Poland today is due to Polish leaders and people. Sadly the same can not be said of Ukraine.[/font][/size]

Poland has received large amounts of funding from the EU. Not to mention being a member of the EU means that Polish goods are able to enter EU countries without the tariffs that those countries outside the EU must pay. Poland has benefited immensely from being a member of the EU.

http://www.roedl.net/pl/en/services/state_aid_advice/eu_funds_in_poland_20142020.html
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on October 30, 2018, 11:45:30 PM
msmob will you please stop posting on subjects you don't understand?

As we'll see , you need to be taking your own 'advice' ;)

How could an emerging economy such as Poland have more spending power than an established economy such as the UK? The UK is a net contributor to the EU, Poland is not.

I 'missed' when I made such a claim, whilst it is possible you mis-read and misunderstood - I was pointing out that when economies improve, the population have more spending power - ( as would the govt)

Perhaps saying CONSUMERS would have been clearer ?



The Poles did the crappy jobs in the UK because they didn't speak English and/or didn't have a needed skill set for employment in the UK. Of course those Poles who were in the UK illegally had to take crappy jobs because they were in the UK illegally.

Here's yet another example of DaveNY proving he ought to take his own advice

1/ Unlike you, I lived in the UK during this time and have encountered many Poles - who tended to be better educated and used the crappy jobs as stepping stones.

2/ How could a Pole be 'illegal' in the UK? - Unless they are a threat to the Public Health or Hygiene of the UK or have Criminal convictions - they cannot be excluded - they have freedom to settle here - for now. :cluebat:

Another fallacy. Just because one currency is stronger than another it does NOT mean the economy of the stronger currency is better than that of the weaker currency. For example, the Japanese economy is larger and stronger than the Canadian dollar yet 1 Canadian dollar is worth about 86 Japanese yen.

Once again, you have jumped in on a discussion and totally got it wrong..  I WAS pointing out that the Euro has - at the time of writing - been better performing, overall - since its inception - than the USD..




Maybe some Poles left because of the weak GBP or maybe they left for other reasons. Many immigrants, legal and illegal, are economic migrants. They go where they can get work and then return home when they've earned enough.

Poles could also have gotten homesick. As someone who's lived abroad I can say I've often missed the comforts of American living. 

Once again, how many Poles living in the UK have you met... to 'know'?  I had the pleasure of knowing Poles from the first wave of migrants - my 'surrogate Grand parents (Zbigniew and Helena) who came to the UK in 1946 with  rucksacks on their backs and holes in their shoes .. They were Polish middle class from Warsaw and could not go back to Soviet totalitarianism -settling in the UK ..   Helena saw the new Polish wave as having the potential to upset  the British - as they'd work harder and the Poles would drink harder, too !    :) 

She was wise ((  There are a LOT of ignorant folk about..


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-migration-uk-brexit-referendum-latest-net-fall-figures-why-racism-hate-crime-brexodus-government-a7911196.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-migration-uk-brexit-referendum-latest-net-fall-figures-why-racism-hate-crime-brexodus-government-a7911196.html)

It's a 'Brexitos' whereby 28 year olds - who came here as kids  aged eight - no longer feel welcome

Many folks who voted Brexit didn't 'get' that their carers would up sticks and leave their care home.
 



Some migrants collect citizenships from living and working abroad.

)) At 4.5 k USD per UK citizen - I KNOW you are now out of your depth - WHAT would having a UK passport give one over a EU, Polish passport , DUH ?

Maybe the Poles simply moved to the UK to get UK citizenship and once that was done they returned home or moved elsewhere? I've known people that have collected 2 or 3 additional citizenships from living and working abroad. Having several legal passports makes travel easier and in many cases it can be passed on to their children. After all a UK passport is far better than a Polish passport for business and travel.

You really are funny

http://www.henleypassportindex.com/global-ranking (http://www.henleypassportindex.com/global-ranking) The UK ( and US) passport means visa free travel to 186 nations with Poland at 175 - With the possibility of a no-deal 'Brexit' - may be meaning a Visa being necessary to EU nations, for UK passport holders  - the Polish passport could be a MUCH better option ..  ;)

My 'Oirish' passport 'only' gives me visa free access to 185 nations











Polish businesses operating in Poland and elsewhere were paying top dollar to recruit educated Poles to work for them. Maybe that was an incentive to leave the UK.
[/quote]
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 31, 2018, 01:27:37 AM
While you are picking yourself off the floor

Yet another example of the chaos awaiting employers and EU nationals quite legally working and residing

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46035919 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46035919)

"Firms may have to do "rigorous" checks on EU staff if there is a no-deal Brexit, a minister has suggested.

Caroline Nokes said employers wouldn't be able to tell the difference between people who had settled in the UK and those who had just arrived.

She also revealed the system for EU citizens to register for settled status still didn't work on Apple phones."

No doubt the same will apply to school kids, university students in the event the UK Govt cannot agree a deal with the EU  :deadhorse:

Naturally any change requires work. None of this is any real problem and can be gone through. Nearly every Library in the UK has computers that EU citizens can register. The system not working on an iPhone is hardly the end of the world, if they used the same OS as everyone else they wouldn't have a problem, a case of paying over the odds and getting less for it me thinks ;)

I think Brexit will shape up quite nicely when it comes in. I think you'll find Britain as a society improving as a result. A more reasonable immigrant size population/workforce than the oversized immigrant population/workforce we have been having to put up with causing problems in our society.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 31, 2018, 02:26:53 AM
My thoughts are also that a General Election could be quite likely be called in January/early February in the case of a no deal. I don't believe the EU is sincere in reaching a deal with the UK, hoping instead that a no deal will slide the UK to a customs union/rejoining the EU through a GE, etc.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on October 31, 2018, 08:14:59 AM
On the uptake of Irish passports if a UK person is eligible it stands to reason to get one. It's potentially one of the benefits of Brexit, the preferential terms I was talking about Mobers. The Irish passport will continue to allow visa free access to countries the current UK passport has. After no deal Brexit yes we may lose visa free access to some countries, possibly the EU and they will likely do to us. However we could well be likely to pick up visa free access to other countries particularly as time roles on. So it makes sense having the two which together could slow the broadest possible range of visa free travel.

There is also the benefit of you lose one you still got the other as back up & likewise another embassy for assistance. I think until it was publicised a lot of people didn't know they were eligible for an Irish passport or didn't consider it. Had it been regardless of Brexit people could have likely still gotten one as a back up in any event.

To me the idea of carrying a passport book that could easily be lost or stolen and nit easily remedied is a silly idea in its day and age. It should have been replaced by a card long ago and these days have a secure online digital backup like with airline tickets that can just be brought up on screen. Pointless fuss for the embassies otherwise.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on October 31, 2018, 12:27:57 PM

I 'missed' when I made such a claim, whilst it is possible you mis-read and misunderstood - I was pointing out that when economies improve, the population have more spending power - ( as would the govt)

Perhaps saying CONSUMERS would have been clearer ?

That would only work in their own country, in this case Poland. If they move to the UK and don't speak the language. Don't have credentials recognized by the local employers and/or government. Don't bring lots of money. Then they're simply poor immigrants, assuming they came to the UK legally, with few job skills not consumers with increased spending power.


Here's yet another example of DaveNY proving he ought to take his own advice

1/ Unlike you, I lived in the UK during this time and have encountered many Poles - who tended to be better educated and used the crappy jobs as stepping stones.

If the Poles you meet, you seem to know everyone, were better educated why didn't they start with better jobs? Because they needed to learn the local language? Get credentials recognized locally?


2/ How could a Pole be 'illegal' in the UK? - Unless they are a threat to the Public Health or Hygiene of the UK or have Criminal convictions - they cannot be excluded - they have freedom to settle here - for now.

Still need a valid passport and the means to support yourself and family. If you don't speak the language and lack needed job skills, you might not be able to support yourself and family.

 
Once again, you have jumped in on a discussion and totally got it wrong..  I WAS pointing out that the Euro has - at the time of writing - been better performing, overall - since its inception - than the USD..

You're saying the euro has out performed the USD since its inception when it replaced the former EU currencies in circulation at the time? Based on what? Your opinion?

msmob the guy who knows everyone and according to msmob knows everything. Why doesn't Theresa May hire you to negotiate Brexit? I'm sure you'd either get a better deal with Brussels or convince the leavers they were wrong.



)) At 4.5 k USD per UK citizen - I KNOW you are now out of your depth - WHAT would having a UK passport give one over a EU, Polish passport , DUH ?

You really are funny

http://www.henleypassportindex.com/global-ranking (http://www.henleypassportindex.com/global-ranking) The UK ( and US) passport means visa free travel to 186 nations with Poland at 175 - With the possibility of a no-deal 'Brexit' - may be meaning a Visa being necessary to EU nations, for UK passport holders  - the Polish passport could be a MUCH better option ..  ;)

My 'Oirish' passport 'only' gives me visa free access to 185 nations

Foreign countries set their own entry requirements. Canada has special entry requirements for citizens of EU member states Bulgaria and Romania that UK citizens don't have to meet.

Perhaps some countries have special requirements for Poles? Don't know but if they do then having a UK passport, which is among the best in the world, would solve that problem.

http://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2017/04/canada_s_new_entryrulesforbrazilianbulgarianandromaniancitizens.html











Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: DaveNY on November 04, 2018, 09:09:02 PM
The pressures ramping up for another vote on Brexit. More than 70 business leaders have signed a letter to the Sunday Times calling for a public vote on the UK's Brexit deal.

In the coming months the pressures likely to increase on UK PM Theresa May. The Downing Street source told the BBC: "The Prime Minister has been clear - no second referendum. "We had a people's vote, it was in June 2016."

This attitude will likely change. When she and her MPs are being told by their biggest donors that unless there's a second referendum they can forget about any donations because the donations will be going to the opposition. When that happens May will be forced to call a second referendum or resign.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46086336
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 10, 2018, 02:05:41 AM
Well, yesterday we found out Boris Johnson had a brother and even more surprising he had been quietly hiding out in a low key cabinet Job, Transport, etc. He had just resigned like his brother Boris as he does not like the Brexit deal Ms May is reaching with Brussels. He is asking for a referendum but not on a customs union but between the Chequers Deal & No deal, himself favouring No Deal.

It's looking interesting times ahead as its looking like the Brextremists in the Tory Party are now increasingly unlikely to back Chequers unless it changes enough by December. Jeremy Corbyn has said he won't back Chequers which means Ms May will very likely be short of the votes needed to pass the vote on it. If so she could well call a General Election on the matter and the October Budget was certainly geared to holding a GE I believe.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 10, 2018, 03:02:47 AM
Trench, must you keep demonstrating just how CLUELESS you are ?

Younger brother Jo is REMAIN  :wallbash: ..as his father and sister

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/09/jo-johnson-quits-as-minister-over-theresa-mays-brexit-plan-boris (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/09/jo-johnson-quits-as-minister-over-theresa-mays-brexit-plan-boris)

Mrs May is trying to plug fingers in a near bursting dyke from two fronts ..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46147628 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46147628)

Brexit: DUP accuses May of breaking promises on Irish border

Are any of my warnings sounding familiar to you  :popcorn:



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 10, 2018, 10:12:44 AM
Trench, must you keep demonstrating just how CLUELESS you are ?

Younger brother Jo is REMAIN  :wallbash: ..as his father and sister

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/09/jo-johnson-quits-as-minister-over-theresa-mays-brexit-plan-boris (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/09/jo-johnson-quits-as-minister-over-theresa-mays-brexit-plan-boris)

Mrs May is trying to plug fingers in a near bursting dyke from two fronts ..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46147628 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46147628)

Brexit: DUP accuses May of breaking promises on Irish border

Are any of my warnings sounding familiar to you  :popcorn:

Ah, the news reporting on the BBC didn't make it very clear so he is a Remoaner then. Still doesn't explain why he had a girls name :-\

Well the Irish always like to argue whatever the case. It appears at the moment though that Ms May's deal looks set to please no-one. Depends on whether they decide to put differences aside to avoid a lot of turmoil or if the sides in despure are up for a fight. At the moment though it's looking like the Chequers Deal will be sunk and a General Election will be called by Theresa to try to resolve the issue. December could be an interesting month :)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 13, 2018, 06:31:48 PM
Well Mobers if you're still going it looks like the EU & UK have reached an agreement/Deal. So something looks like it will come   out off the woodwork. We'll see what it is soon and who may find it acceptable or not. Essentially if it is too customs union or will upset too many MP's to get through.

At the moment the risk looks like it could fail to get the needed votes as a result of opposition from Remain MP'S & Brextremists as you call them Mobers. Part depends on how many come on board and how many just don't vote either way. Will be interesting to see what is done on EU immigration as this was one off the 'red lines' not just for Theresa May but for most who voted Leave such as myself to take back control off this area. Should be interesting.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 14, 2018, 11:35:57 AM
Well it looks like although they are getting there the draft will need a bit more work if it is to stand any chance of getting through Parliament. Essentially though there will now be a mechanism to deal with any Irish backstop/temporary customs union it looks like the EU will hold the decision on whether the UK can break out of this temporary arrangement. This will be a deal breaker for both Brexiteer MP's & DUP MP's meaning that the Deal as it stands would likely fail to pass in Parliament. I think unless there is room made in the mechanism for the UK to vote to end any temporary customs union it's deal as a whole will not likely make any headway in parliament. My guess is that there will be a bit more back & forth on this deal before it goes to a vote.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 14, 2018, 01:08:30 PM
Trenchie

It's a 500 page document and it's FAR too earlier to pronounce judgement - as lots of Politicians are doing  :wallbash:

It seems that there could be various extremes voting AGAINST the deal -to bring the govt down - and that might mean a no deal scenario - which would be a disaster

Stability seems a long way off






Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 14, 2018, 01:23:22 PM
Trenchie

It's a 500 page document and it's FAR too earlier to pronounce judgement - as lots of Politicians are doing  :wallbash:

It seems that there could be various extremes voting AGAINST the deal -to bring the govt down - and that might mean a no deal scenario - which would be a disaster

Stability seems a long way off

Doesn't look like the gov are going to make any changes from the initial reaction of the PM. Unless this changes then this deal is doomed. It's not so much the ins & outs of the 500 page document but what they have already read as not being agreeable to the disputed parties. If this deal remains unchanged and gets voted down as it seems certain to do and that will lead to a no deal exit from Europe with no further fuss then that would be the best way out of all of this :)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 14, 2018, 11:01:51 PM
Trenchie

As ever, you prove how clueless you are

A no deal solution means will LOSE thousands of jobs and BIG multi nationals pull out - as moving goods and workers will be too much of a hassle

Prices will go up - as we will go onto the default WTO tariff rates

No deal, means no agreements on immigration / customs and 'good luck' with making the border with Ireland 'secure' ...

There'd be violence and corruption, too

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 15, 2018, 01:19:17 AM
Trenchie

As ever, you prove how clueless you are

A no deal solution means will LOSE thousands of jobs and BIG multi nationals pull out - as moving goods and workers will be too much of a hassle

Prices will go up - as we will go onto the default WTO tariff rates

No deal, means no agreements on immigration / customs and 'good luck' with making the border with Ireland 'secure' ...

There'd be violence and corruption, too

Well it will all be hard border so we'll have complete control :D

I think the short term disruption and economic fall out will be worth it for a better long term situation. I don't see it being that bad to be honest as some might think. At any rate we will avoid the £39bn the EU are trying to extort from us.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 15, 2018, 01:53:30 AM
Well it will all be hard border so we'll have complete control


Once ore - you are talking out of you arse

With watch-towers and checkpoints and helicopters 'we' didn't have that and the IRA made millions smuggling  :wallbash:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on November 15, 2018, 02:57:45 AM
Trenchie

As ever, you prove how clueless you are
Methinks it’s Moby who’s the clueless one.
Quote
A no deal solution means will LOSE thousands of jobs and BIG multi nationals pull out - as moving goods and workers will be too much of a hassle
You mean like all those jobs lost and those companies that relocated after June 23 2016 - NOT.
Quote
Prices will go up - as we will go onto the default WTO tariff rates
More Remoaner scaremongering, eh.
Quote
No deal, means no agreements on immigration / customs and 'good luck' with making the border with Ireland 'secure' ...
And you know all this how.......?
Quote
There'd be violence and corruption, too
My, what a scary picture you paint. I’m quaking in my boots (or I would be if I had them on) 😂
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 15, 2018, 06:58:08 AM
Well it looks like things are already all over for Theresa May and the Brexit deal. Cabinet Ministers are resigning fast, Six already including the Brexit Secretary who was supposed to have negotiated this deal. So a big vote of no confidence in the deal and a vote of no confidence in her looking almost certain now. Unless she can turn this around mightily quick with some much needed alterations to the deal it will be all over for her in a matter of days. Doesn't look like the deal will survive to a vote on 7th December nor probably her.

There's real hatred of the EU out there and I for one am relishing a showdown with the EU under a No Deal Brexit :D It's going to be fun watching the EU economy creaking and falling apart while ours sails away :) Will serve them right for thinking they can dictate to us in negotiations and treat us as an insignificant insubordinate vassal state. Looking to me like Boris will get another crack at the leadership very soon :)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 15, 2018, 02:44:35 PM
Methinks it’s Moby who’s the clueless one.

SO 'clueless' that all my predictions are coming home to roost ... N.Ireland was going to bring folks to their senses as to the border issue with freedom of movement being sacrosanct and ensuring the leave campaigners were kidding themselves 

Whilst I'll concede some brextremists are daft enough to STILL think a 'no deal scenario'  is 'good news' and could still TRY to bring this deathwish to fruition ( how much did the Pound fall today? ) -- I'm still hopeful that most politicians will ( eventually) be more worried about losing their seats and realising that project fear is becoming project fact   

Jobs will go in UK car plants ( Aerospace industries? ) etc.,  and it is noted you failed to counter that even Brextremists would rather build new car plants in the Far East ( Dyson ) - in nations that have just done free trade deals with the EU -  than bet on the UK ....  double stds rule OK ?

The recent output figures for UK manufacturing are down and retail sales are down ....  I see v.little to be optimistic about until we put a stop to the lemming mode

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 15, 2018, 04:32:34 PM
The EU have condemned the deal to failure as a result of them being unwilling to renegotiate/negotiate/amend the deal they have put forward to the UK. That was the standpoint the EU put forward today. There is no way it can pass, the EU stating that the UK is held in a customs union backstop with all that entails which the UK electorate already rejected in the Referendum as it's the same as being a EU member basically sinks this deal.

There's no way the DUP MP'S  will vote for this deal. The ERG/Brexiteer group of Tory MP'S won't either. Labour Rebel MP'S are likely to abstain from the vote or even vote against. Labour Remainers are unlikely to vote for it as they are hell bent on a second referendum and want a cutoms union/EU not this deal and Jeremy Corbyn is opposed to it as he states it needs more work on it - and I agree.

In some ways it's a shame as it could have passed with a few amendments done before this deal draft was released. The backstop mechanism basically needs an ability to exit the temporary customs union I would have suggested by a joint vote from the UK and Northern Ireland governments both holding a vote to end it and it passing. As it is we have the bizarre situation where the EU think they will hold power over whether the UK can end it's trade agreements despite us being a sovereign power, lol.

No doubt suggestions like this came up but the EU was either looking for a way to scupper the deal or needlessly wanted to make us their b*tch as seems to be their mentality. They don't get it we voted out the EU because we don't want them in power over us.

As it is it looks like a leadership contest is on the way, possibly an announcement of the vote of no confidence letters will be given tomorrow, the weekend or on Monday.

If the deal ever makes it to Parliament it faces certain defeat which I hope will put us onto the road of a No Deal Brexit. I think whatever the cost I would love to see the EU economically crippled over it and taken down another much needed peg or two :D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 15, 2018, 10:31:18 PM
Trench - as an employed person you will be one of the first to be bewildered when unemployment rates go up in the no deal scenario you so desire ...at least that will be a service to FSU W.

The EU are quite correct to be fed up with 'us' as we clearly can't agree on anything.

You constantly back up my assertion- statically proven -  that  smarter ( better educated ) - people voted remain ;)

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on November 15, 2018, 11:18:29 PM
SO 'clueless' that all my predictions are coming home to roost ... N.Ireland was going to bring folks to their senses as to the border issue with freedom of movement being sacrosanct and ensuring the leave campaigners were kidding themselves 

Whilst I'll concede some brextremists are daft enough to STILL think a 'no deal scenario'  is 'good news' and could still TRY to bring this deathwish to fruition ( how much did the Pound fall today? ) -- I'm still hopeful that most politicians will ( eventually) be more worried about losing their seats and realising that project fear is becoming project fact   

Jobs will go in UK car plants ( Aerospace industries? ) etc.,  and it is noted you failed to counter that even Brextremists would rather build new car plants in the Far East ( Dyson ) - in nations that have just done free trade deals with the EU -  than bet on the UK ....  double stds rule OK ?

The recent output figures for UK manufacturing are down and retail sales are down ....  I see v.little to be optimistic about until we put a stop to the lemming mode
Yes, we know how much weight to give to your ‘predictions’. About as much as to a used sheet of toilet paper is how much.
Moby still banging the remoaner drum.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 15, 2018, 11:19:48 PM
Trench - as an employed person you will be one of the first to be bewildered when unemployment rates go up in the no deal scenario you so desire ...at least that will be a service to FSU W.

The EU are quite correct to be fed up with 'us' as we clearly can't agree on anything.

You constantly back up my assertion- statically proven -  that  smarter ( better educated ) - people voted remain ;)

The EU are having a laugh, they sent Theresa May a Dodgy Deal term - the backstop needing EU approval for the UK to get out off. They gave her a real banana to hold and basically set her up. She fell into the trap and is foolishly left holding onto the deal. Best thing she can do is ditch and move straight to No Deal or it will drag her down. One Tory backbencher even described thd deal as 'dead on arrival' lol as there is no way it will or should go through Parliament.

I think the EU may stop laughing soon when we leave the EU without paying any money they were trying to hold us to random for and their member states want to pull out of the EU through falling trade revenue with thd UK. I think we will have the last laugh there.

I don't think your getting it either Mobers, it's a free Britain we want ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 16, 2018, 12:03:14 AM
Yes, we know how much weight to give to your ‘predictions’. About as much as to a used sheet of toilet paper is how much.
Moby still banging the remoaner drum.

Sadly our JG can't have been paying attention ..

From the get go I've CONSTANTLY pointed out - a the campaign stage - that 'leave' were essentially lying as the Irish border question was a circle that could not be squared

The wonderful election called by Mrs May  - to 'enhance' her position - boy did she misread the nation- resulted in MY dream scenario with a Tory govt - thinking they'd run the economy, better  - but ham-strung by the need to appease the DUP - who bizarrely want a Brexit - but retaining an open border with Ireland

Do I want to see the UK 'out' but having to obey EU rules - hell NO..

FAR better to be I  the club and at the table ..

Now we can see the 'leave campaign' was a dubiously funded joke and the effects of Brexit are better understood - the likes of JG are scared of a second referendum - 'undemocratic' - as they KNOW the result will be REMAIN

As always, I'm grateful for your well -reasoned, point-by point- rebuttals of my assertions - particularly the one re better educated people voted REMAIN ;)

It's time for Rees-Mogg to make good his promise and form a new party -  the Tories can get trashed in an election, allow Labour to screw up and we can be rid of the Euro-septics that have torpedoed this govt

It's going to be 10-20  years before this mess is forgotten and multi-nationals will trust the UK to invest .. UNLESS we simply admit this was a farcical mistake

David Cameron's deal  with the EU - pre the Brexit referendum- is now looking FANTASTIC

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-eu-reform-deal-scorecard-brexit-eu-referendum-agreement/ (http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-eu-reform-deal-scorecard-brexit-eu-referendum-agreement/)











Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 16, 2018, 07:41:52 PM
Sadly our JG can't have been paying attention ..

From the get go I've CONSTANTLY pointed out - a the campaign stage - that 'leave' were essentially lying as the Irish border question was a circle that could not be squared

The wonderful election called by Mrs May  - to 'enhance' her position - boy did she misread the nation- resulted in MY dream scenario with a Tory govt - thinking they'd run the economy, better  - but ham-strung by the need to appease the DUP - who bizarrely want a Brexit - but retaining an open border with Ireland

Do I want to see the UK 'out' but having to obey EU rules - hell NO..

FAR better to be I  the club and at the table ..

Now we can see the 'leave campaign' was a dubiously funded joke and the effects of Brexit are better understood - the likes of JG are scared of a second referendum - 'undemocratic' - as they KNOW the result will be REMAIN

As always, I'm grateful for your well -reasoned, point-by point- rebuttals of my assertions - particularly the one re better educated people voted REMAIN ;)

It's time for Rees-Mogg to make good his promise and form a new party -  the Tories can get trashed in an election, allow Labour to screw up and we can be rid of the Euro-septics that have torpedoed this govt

It's going to be 10-20  years before this mess is forgotten and multi-nationals will trust the UK to invest .. UNLESS we simply admit this was a farcical mistake

David Cameron's deal  with the EU - pre the Brexit referendum- is now looking FANTASTIC

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-eu-reform-deal-scorecard-brexit-eu-referendum-agreement/ (http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-eu-reform-deal-scorecard-brexit-eu-referendum-agreement/)

Cameron's deal with the EU was rejected by voters in the referendum. Most of it is just reiterating what was already the case, some of it gave a little but in areas that the electorate were not most concerned about - they were concerned about immigrants taking up much needed housing & jobs from the local population more than they were concerned about immigrants accessing benefits/sending child benefit home. Cameron's deal did no go far enough to satisfy voters nor did they trust that it would be honoured long term by the EU.

The Irish border is a situation that can be squared but the EU doesn't want to, it thinks it can rope the UK back under its control by using the Irish border as a contentious issue on which it can be awkward.

Big International companies have no choice other than to be here, the UK is too big a market for them to shun whatever they say. They are just threatening leaving if they don't get their way. Any that did would soon regret it, a competitor or smaller company would more on and flourish in the market it gave up.

The big issue with a second referendum Mobers is precisely the fear that there is a vote for Remain. I agree that that is the reason the problem is Remainers think it all ends there IT DOESN'T! Remainers can't see any further up the road than a push to hold a second referendum and a Remain win. Leave supporters would be incensed and furious at such an outcome that their chance to leave the EU had been taken away from them. Leavers would still point to the first Referendum as the one that should have been honoured but wasn't. The division between Leavers & Remainers would get more severe than it already is and increasingly uglier. Leave would then be pressing for all sorts of redress of tge situation and increased violence and bitterness ever increasing. During the first referendum one MP was murdered, pushing this matter to a second referendum could bring about a lot of bloodshed.

That is why it is utter foolishness and irresponsibility for Remainers to push for a second referendum. It really does solve nothing, it would only thrust the UK in a pointless bitter entanglement that would serve no purpose. Any attempt to Remain in the EU without Leave being allowed a chance to take the UK out of the EU would turn into a hostile fight all the way.

It shocks me to see Remain MP's like David Lammy being incredibly short sighted in constantly asking for a second referendum. Even if a second referendum was held and Remain won they would not ever get the easy 'stay in the EU' course the think they will get. Unfortunately they just seem too thick to get that. They would'nt even be able to agree between them what option to have in the referendum never mind anything else, it's just plain ludicrous.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: fathertime on November 16, 2018, 09:11:20 PM
 error post. 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 16, 2018, 10:27:52 PM
Cameron's deal with the EU was rejected by voters in the referendum.

Wow, more 'understanding' of the real situation by Trenchie !;)

Cameron's deal was indeed rejected- but is was FAR stronger than we have now and that will be diluted to UK PLC having to respect EU rules without making them - unless we get real

The big issue with a second referendum Mobers is precisely the fear that there is a vote for Remain. I agree that that is the reason the problem is Remainers think it all ends there IT DOESN'T! Remainers can't see any further up the road than a push to hold a second referendum and a Remain win. Leave supporters would be incensed and furious at such an outcome that their chance to leave the EU had been taken away from them. Leavers would still point to the first Referendum as the one that should have been honoured but wasn't. The division between Leavers & Remainers would get more severe than it already is and increasingly uglier. Leave would then be pressing for all sorts of redress of tge situation and increased violence and bitterness ever increasing. During the first referendum one MP was murdered, pushing this matter to a second referendum could bring about a lot of bloodshed.

Except that that the reason a second referendum IS democratic - is that those changing their minds will KNOW the facts - which is why leave wold lose - they LIED




It shocks me to see Remain MP's like David Lammy being incredibly short sighted in constantly asking for a second referendum.

But it isn't short-sighted - it's demonstrating what the majority want - now they KNOW the deal

Even if a second referendum was held and Remain won they would not ever get the easy 'stay in the EU' course the think they will get. Unfortunately they just seem too thick to get that. They would'nt even be able to agree between them what option to have in the referendum never mind anything else, it's just plain ludicrous.

If we vote remain - they nothing changes - we just wouldn't have the better deal Cameron got for us - 'ruined' by folks who didn't have a clue what they were voting for in June 2016

Face it, Trenchie ...  I told you this farce was coming .. 

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 17, 2018, 12:12:24 PM
And if Remain were to lose a second referendum what then? They would then be arguing fir a third referendum because the 'customs union option' was not included. They moaned about that after the first referendum. Some indeed would want the customs union option on the second referendum not a stay a member in the EU option as that has already been voted upon.

Meanwhile Leavers would argue that it is unfair as each referendum is an attempt to unfairly reverse the result of the first referendum. People would get more entrenched, the situation would get more complex not less, ie working out which referendum to honour.

Further referendums are essentially unwinable. There are at least three options to choose from to put on the sheet - four if the Brexit Deal is ever resurrected. However, you can really only version have 2 options on any one referendum, above this and people are that it was unfair as the vote was split that had only 2 options been put to voters their option would have won. Put 2 options though apart from a simply in or out as we have had already and people argue their prefered option was not there to choose.

Now that I have explained it to you do you see why it would be foolish to call a second referendum? The UK must be allowed to leave the EU, given a good 5-10 years out then another referendum could be put to voters on rejoining if the results of leaving have not been good. That is the only way abother referendum should come about. Trying to rerun thd first referendum is sheer folly. Unfortunately many arguing for a second referendum don't look any further beyond what happens were they to be granted one that is the stupidity of it.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Blighty on November 17, 2018, 12:51:16 PM
It would be a good idea for people to re-read the original government leaflet which described the 2016 referendum as a 'once in a generation vote' at http://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

If anyone cannot understand this leaflet then there is a simplified version at http://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/525022/20160523_Leaflet_EASY_READ_FINAL_VERSION.pdf

It was made clear to us that the UK would leave the single market and that trade deals can take 10 years to negotiate. The remoaners need to read this leaflet again to help them understand that democracy must be respected! Both sides told lies, but that is the trademark of our politicians.


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 17, 2018, 08:31:30 PM
Blighty

It is now abundantly clear that leave folk know if there is a vote on the deal what will happen

You can  carry on making excuses and showing us 'the rules' from nearly 4 years ago

I'm living in the present ...

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 19, 2018, 04:58:16 PM
Well it looks like Theresa May is carrying on trying to flog a dead horse, big mistake! :deadhorse:

The DUP are either abstaining from the vote or even siding with Labour on amendments to the Budget bill showing that there is no way they will back the deal.

There is also trouble starting to brew across the channel for the deal from the Spanish, etc.

There's no way its going to pass or should pass & Theresa would be best off dropping the whole thing before any vote on it in December.

It certainly looks like the only way forward on this all now is No Deal and complete Brexit, its the cleanest bestest way. To that end I've just joined up to 'Leave Means Leave' and I'm sure many others are. No one expected the clangers the EU put in at the last moment in the Chequers Deal which essentially sinks any chance there may have been to reach a reasonable compromise. Think were best off getting away from typical EU awkwardness as fast as we can, it will be there economy that suffers badly long term, not ours :) 
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 20, 2018, 10:40:25 PM
Blighty

It is now abundantly clear that leave folk know if there is a vote on the deal what will happen

You can  carry on making excuses and showing us 'the rules' from nearly 4 years ago

I'm living in the present ...

Well I'm hoping they bring the vote up quickly so it can be voted down and we then automatically default to a 'No Deal' Brexit, Hooray!!! :clapping: :D

Meanwhile good to see you've chosen to go to the back of the line after your 'queue jumping' Mobers, you naughty boy you ;D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46274118


Well anyway looks also like a General Election is probably looking like it's off the table. The farce of a deal the EU put forward with thd big clanger of the UK being held to the EU in a temporary customs union with no means of exit has seen to that. It's put the Tories in such disarray that I doubt that any of them would want a GE as they would look set to heavily lose out to Labour due to all the infighting now present their. Quite a twist but looks like it could handily throw this in the direction of No Deal once the Chequers/EU deal is voted down which looks pretty certain at the moment :) After that Theresa has little place to turn but No Deal hence the hold off on the confidence vote as Brexiteers in the Tory party come to realise this I think. Me thinks our Mobers has worked this out too hence the quietness from him on here in recent days about it ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 22, 2018, 10:31:24 AM
Well the deal that is being put forward to the UK got worse today but came across as an exercise in papering over the cracks rather than fixing them. It shows that little has been achieved in negotiations in the last two years which is unfortunate as I think it really could have been. Instead we have a lot of last minute fudges over issues that should have been sorted long ago and trade negoiations that should have been given a good few weeks to have been sorted out long ago just been hastily given a few days and a right hash made off it. I really don't think this stands a chance off passing in Parliament which is just as well really. I do think though this shows great incompetance on the EU side more than the Government, its symbolic of the EU awkwardness and lack of skill in negotiating. Previous example being when they were trying to negotitate a trade deal with the US which fell through due to EU awkwardness.

Todays's declaration cruicially promises to fix nothing that is wrong with the withdrawal agreement. It gives no-one anything! Essentially the withdrawal agreement needs to go back to the table or the whole lot will sink quickly when it comes to a vote in Parliament. Too much done too quickly and left too late in the day to sort out. It means really that no headyway in agreements was made and its all gets put off to way later but binds us to being with the EU, ridiculous to carry on in such a manner. Better to avoid this whole inconceived tosh and go for a clean all out No Deal Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 24, 2018, 04:59:39 AM
This is the article I like :) Tells us clearly that we will be leaving the EU with 'No Deal' :D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46320368

No doubt why our Mobers has been so quiet on his favourite topic here of late! ;)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 24, 2018, 11:24:50 PM
Mober's isn't in the UK and 'busy' .. 

I read the article and I see that Mrs May might lose on a vote on her version of a deal

AND that she is

"Theresa May has written a letter to the British public pleading for their support for her Brexit deal, as the EU prepares to formally sign it off."

So. let us give her the answer ......

You KNOW we'd be staying ...

We will not have a 'no deal departure'

The EU will realise that if they wait the Brexitremists will screw themselves
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 25, 2018, 01:50:11 AM
Mober's isn't in the UK and 'busy' ...

Yep I bet you are  :) I can visualise now our paddy fraughtly running around his newly set up operation in the Republic of Ireland in distress! Muttering to himself 'oh, I've made a terrible, terrible mess, I'll have to get this all sorted out & move it all back to Blighty quickly' lol.

Realising of course that a now almost certain 'No Deal' Brexit will mean that the Republic of Ireland will be facing tariffs, loss of trade & economic collapse as it loses easy access to its biggest trading partner - the UK :D

Myself I am going to enjoy watching the Rep of Ireland's economy go into meltdown, might be able to pick me self up a cheap investment there if I wait till after Brexit. The women there might get like Ukrainian girls and be looking for a nice foreign guy to take them away from all of the economic fallout :)

Can't wait for all of it to happen!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on November 25, 2018, 07:25:31 AM
Blighty

It is now abundantly clear that leave folk know if there is a vote on the deal what will happen

You can  carry on making excuses and showing us 'the rules' from nearly 4 years ago

I'm living in the present ...
Really?
Moby knows something the rest of us don’t. There’s a surprise.
It must be Mobys lordly connections feeding the trollster.
Anyway, it isn’t going to get through parliament unless those lily livered MP’s shysters do one.
That means a general election.
Either way, there is now not enough time so it would seem, regardless, on the 29th of March the UK will crash out of the EU as per statute.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 25, 2018, 10:59:29 AM
Really?
Moby knows something the rest of us don’t. There’s a surprise.
It must be Mobys lordly connections feeding the trollster.
Anyway, it isn’t going to get through parliament unless those lily livered MP’s shysters do one.
That means a general election.
Either way, there is now not enough time so it would seem, regardless, on the 29th of March the UK will crash out of the EU as per statute.

I'm not so sure there will be a General Election now, in fact it's probably quite unlikely. If the EU hadn't done a number on Theresa and it was just the DUP to jettison in getting her deal through then there probably would have been one. However, now that the ERG Brexiteer Tories have also come out dead set against the deal i.E at least 70-80 or so MP'S in her own party it's pretty pointless risking a GE. Even if she was returned with a majority government she is unlikely to have a majority over the 70-80 ERG/Brexiteer's in her own party to beat them in a commons vote.

The only way she might win for this deal is if Labour Remainers vote in significant numbers for it, a free vote on Parliament may make that easier but it doesn't look like they will. They seem to be set on a customs union and seem to be with JC in facing down a bill from 'the opposition'. I personally don't think she'll get the needed votes from Labour or anywhere else, I at least hope not. All seem to be against and I can't see the ERG/Brexiteers coming around & voting for it either. It looks like all sides would rather bat for what they truely want then get stuck in this ill-contrived mess of a deal.

I think Theresa will put if to a commons vote just to see it through then she will move to a 'No Deal' Brexit as the remaining default option. She might quit on losing the vote but I doubt it, any abiguity is likely just posturing. It's not really a David Cameron moment where he was on the complete opposite & losing side of the whole Leave/Remain situation. I think a lot of Tory Brexiteers ate not in a hurry to get rid of her in fear of a Remain Tory becoming leader, then it really all could go south. I think it will end up being a 'No Deal' Brexit by default and a lot of Remainers will give way to this in the Commons after so long trying to oppose it.

Just really a case of sitting it out now till the vote :popcorn:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 27, 2018, 01:10:21 AM

Either way, there is now not enough time so it would seem, regardless, on the 29th of March the UK will crash out of the EU as per statute.

Ha, you think the EU won't put the brakes on if there's a new govt

OF COURSE I know something ... I'm certainly wiser than you
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: John Gaunt on November 27, 2018, 04:31:16 AM
Ha, you think the EU won't put the brakes on if there's a new govt

OF COURSE I know something ... I'm certainly wiser than you
Yes, you show us every time you post.  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 27, 2018, 04:52:56 AM
Well it looks like most politicians are already going public that they will vote against the bill that will doom the bill just on a numbers front. I'm certainly hoping it will be voted down and we default to a 'No Deal' Brexit. The vote is on the 11th December so fortunately not long to wait. Here an extract from Leave means Leave which shows the strength of support Leave has:

"With Brexit teetering on the brink of disaster as the Prime Minister proposes the worst deal in history, Leave Means Leave is holding a major rally in Westminster.

Join us, and many hundreds of others, in Central London on Friday 14th December. The speakers are Nigel Farage, Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, Sammy Wilson MP, Kate Hoey MP, Wetherspoons Chairman Tim Martin and Graham Stringer MP.

The Government is selling the country a deal which would leave us a complete vassal state to the EU. It would leave us in a worse state than we are in now.

So let’s make our voices heard in the Queen Elizabeth II Centre on Friday 14th December at 6:45pm. Buy your tickets here before they sell out!

We look forward to seeing you there.

John Longworth, Richard Tice & Nigel Farage
Leave Means Leave"

So the Hoe is on board with voting the bill down so I am supposing other LAbour rebels will also. Apparently Theresa is also facing so Remoan Tory MP's voting against the bill who want a 'second referendum/customs union, etc' so its unlikely few if any Labour Remoan Mp's will vote for the bill. Looking highly likely this bill will be crushed and gain few votes in the house of commons.

I doubt the DUP will pull the plug on the gov. They will likely know to do so would risk a Labour gov and a customs union with the EU which the DUP don't want either (there's no pleasing some ;D). I think they'll have little choice than to follow on to a 'No Deal' Brexit and ask the Tories to sort out border issues after we leave the EU, its the only real option they've got.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 27, 2018, 08:00:44 PM
Well the problems the EU are causing the UK in terms of illegal immigration seem clear in this article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-46364929/footage-shows-people-smuggling-plans-over-channel-crossing

Seems they are trying to get in before Brexit which shows why we need out of the EU & a 'No Deal' Brexit to stop all these illegal entries into the UK. If we gain the power to swiftly repatriate them they will stop coming, safer for them and proper that they wait in line with everyone else I think.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 29, 2018, 02:12:24 AM
Looks like support for Remain is beginning to fall away:

"It has been said to me that it's significant that Diane Abbott is now publicly wary of being seen to want to re-run a referendum.

The party's own polling has been showing a slight erosion in support for Remain."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46365397

I myself get the impression that Remainers are finally starting to tire of Remoaning. Over the past week or so there seems to be a quietening down of calls for another referendum. I think Remoaners are starting to realise there is little appertite now among the population to be put through another referendum in this issue. Even our own turncoat remoaner Mobers seems to have fled what is increasing becoming for Remainers a lost cause ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 29, 2018, 02:47:21 AM
Well the problems the EU are causing the UK in terms of illegal immigration seem clear in this article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-46364929/footage-shows-people-smuggling-plans-over-channel-crossing

Seems they are trying to get in before Brexit which shows why we need out of the EU & a 'No Deal' Brexit to stop all these illegal entries into the UK. If we gain the power to swiftly repatriate them they will stop coming, safer for them and proper that they wait in line with everyone else I think.

Never the most clued up poster, our Trenchie is falling for the guff the people smugglers are telling potential paying clients.

Wiser posters will have noted the article quotes the gangs ....it is not factual.

If anything crashing out of the EU with no agreement  would likely mean the French will tell the UK take it's border control back  to the UK side and wash their hands of the immigrants wishing to cross



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 29, 2018, 02:59:01 AM
Looks like support for Remain is beginning to fall away:

))) according to who?  ..Corbyn's ex mistress ?!

We know leaving will make us poorer...the Bank of England published their estimates...

Continue in cloud cuckoo land

This is about what we want, NOW...the UK public are better informed to make a choice

You KNOW you will lose if 'we' get that vote...





Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on November 29, 2018, 03:16:45 AM
Brexit yes or no, soft or hard, things are changing...

American Express just advised me that they changing from American Express Services Europe Limited (UK) to American Express Europe S.A. (Spain) for cards issued to folks in EU, as of 1 Feb 2019.

Other UK based financial institutions are sure to follow, if they haven't taken such steps already.



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Blighty on November 29, 2018, 03:41:20 AM
We know leaving will make us poorer...the Bank of England published their estimates...

Cheer up, its only 'Project Hysteria' ... worse things happen at sea!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 29, 2018, 03:59:19 AM
...and still the 'patriots' believe the Bank of England have an agenda to fib?))

Then there's Public Accounts Committee's findings that many UK govt depts will not be reading and 'we' are blowing money on IT systems to 'cope' with a  'no deal scenario'..

Just search Brexit reality check..

I feel so sorry for those Brits providing services that in the event of a no deal, or Mrs May's 'deal will suddenly find they are illegally working...

Bonkers..

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 29, 2018, 03:44:42 PM
...and still the 'patriots' believe the Bank of England have an agenda to fib?))

Then there's Public Accounts Committee's findings that many UK govt depts will not be reading and 'we' are blowing money on IT systems to 'cope' with a  'no deal scenario'..

Just search Brexit reality check..

I feel so sorry for those Brits providing services that in the event of a no deal, or Mrs May's 'deal will suddenly find they are illegally working...

Bonkers..

Well there are those that gave their lives for this country's freedom and then there are those like Mobe that wouldn't spare a fiver for our country's freedom.

Personally I would rather put up with any short term disruption and any possible downers in our economy because the longer term economic view looks a lot brighter than staying in the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 29, 2018, 09:15:06 PM
Well there are those that gave their lives for this country's freedom and then there are those like Mobe that wouldn't spare a fiver for our country's freedom.

Personally I would rather put up with any short term disruption and any possible downers in our economy because the longer term economic view looks a lot brighter than staying in the EU.

Given your track record, you don't make the best decisions..

Voting for stupidity is not patriotic ...it is just stupid..

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on November 30, 2018, 12:27:28 AM
Given your track record, you don't make the best decisions..

Voting for stupidity is not patriotic ...it is just stupid..

I never voted for Brexit out of patriotism, patriotism has never interested me, but being free to self-determine our will through our own country's parliament does. Including concern over who is being let into our country, it's impact socially not just economically and having some say over how our taxes are spent.

The EU takes much of our freedom to act independently away from us. That is a big negative in not being able to directly taylor our governing to our country.

Brexit offers great opportunity for this country to really get on and progress on from the overriding incompetance of the EU. It's a case of being better of from not having some organisation such as the EU controlling us.

Like it or not No Deal Brexit is fast becoming the default only remaining viable option now that the EU deal looks set to get voted down due once again to EU incompetance.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on November 30, 2018, 11:24:45 PM
I never voted for Brexit out of patriotism, patriotism has never interested me, but being free to self-determine our will through our own country's parliament does. Including concern over who is being let into our country, it's impact socially not just economically and having some say over how our taxes are spent.

..and this has been THE biggest con of Brexit 'supporters' ..

As long as we have the 100 year old Common Travel Agreement with the Republic of Irreland - the two are incompatible as they are EU citizens - will remain so and are only IN Schegen 'coz the UK won't join   

'We' rely on the Irish to control our borders, too .... DUH ...




The EU takes much of our freedom to act independently away from us. That is a big negative in not being able to directly taylor our governing to our country.

 :wallbash:

1/ Are we in Schengen? NO

2/ Have we signed up to Directives on taking refugees ?  NO

3/ Did Cameron secure a great deal to ensure no benefits for EU citizens - YES

4/ Can we refuse EU citizens entry and deport them ?  - YES ( if they have committed crimes and / or are wanted in the EU or are considered a risk or public health


Brexit offers great opportunity for this country to really get on and progress on from the overriding incompetance of the EU. It's a case of being better of from not having some organisation such as the EU controlling us.

No - it's costing us approx 500 million / week in lost govt revenues and all the millions needed to emply extra civil servants and IT systems to become 'isolated' - even though we can actually BE isolated as Ireland is and must be an open border to the EU

'Good luck' with dealing with that issue  - if we 'crash out without a deal ;)

 
Like it or not No Deal Brexit is fast becoming the default only remaining viable option now that the EU deal looks set to get voted down due once again to EU incompetance.

1/ I don't like it

2/ it won't happen

It would be really GREAT if you could read up on stuff before posting daft
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 01, 2018, 04:14:46 AM
As if it couldn't get any worse ..

ANOTHER govt minister resigns calling for a 2nd referendum

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46407249 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46407249)

Liked this article which proves how Mrs May just cannot get her plan approved

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46386172 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46386172)

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 01, 2018, 05:56:09 AM
As if it couldn't get any worse ..

ANOTHER govt minister resigns calling for a 2nd referendum

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46407249 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46407249)

Liked this article which proves how Mrs May just cannot get her plan approved

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46386172 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46386172)

What I like about the gov minister resigning is that it highlights that it's a bad idea being tied to the EU, they will always try and take the whip hand and treat us as inferior. That's not a good relationship to be subject to that sort of attitude that they have taken over the Galileo project. It has just proven the EU deal given to May is a bad deal and that we would be better off not getting into an entanglement with them and go for 'No Deal' Brexit.

I saw the article on the different Tory Brexiteer factions too and thought of posting it here but time became pressing. It's a good article, the important point is though that all Brexiteer factions will unite to oppose the EU bill. After that they will pretty much all get sucked into supporting a 'No Deal' Brexit, even those that want a Norway, EFTA, etc or whatever agreement. It will be the closest to what they are pushing for and on general Brexit. The fighting over what if any agreement other than World Trade Arrangements will be made after Brexit. There simply won't be the time nor inclination to deal with it before Brexit. My stake is now on the EU deal being voted down and a default to No Deal Brexit :)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 01, 2018, 06:42:52 AM
What I like about the gov minister resigning is that it highlights that it's a bad idea being tied to the EU

IDIOT, the guy resigned because of the flawed plan meaning 'we' cannot be involved in Galleleo project..


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 01, 2018, 04:06:50 PM
IDIOT, the guy resigned because of the flawed plan meaning 'we' cannot be involved in Galleleo project..

Exactly, the plan is flawed because the EU messed it up over the clause holding the UK in a customs union under the backstop requiring the EU agreement to release the UK - preposterous!

The fact that they are now viewing the UK as junior and acting in an aloof and non co-operative manner just highlights that an agreement that binds us in any way to the EU other than an easy out straight forward trade deal is not what we should agree to. Better to have a no deal Brexit and be free from the condescending attitude of the EU and act entirely independently.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 01, 2018, 11:53:44 PM
Exactly, the plan is flawed because the EU messed it up

No... try to READ ..

The EU won't let the UK stay in Galileo if we leave ... CRAP negotiating on the part of the UK and yet another reason of the folly of leaving

Kiss good bye to 1000's of well paid jobs
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on December 02, 2018, 12:04:41 AM
Kiss good bye to 1000's of well paid jobs


Who's going to take those jobs? Chances are the UK will last a lot longer than the EU, especially when other nations are entertaining the thought of leaving. Does the UK need the EU to hold their hand to survive? America does quite well without the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 02, 2018, 02:13:59 AM
Does one pity or mock someone who just keeps posting STUPID about stuff they are clueless about ?

Who's going to take those jobs? Chances are the UK will last a lot longer than the EU, especially when other nations are entertaining the thought of leaving. Does the UK need the EU to hold their hand to survive? America does quite well without the EU.

If they can't work on Galileo please tell us what these bright folks will do ?

Answer

Leave the UK

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 02, 2018, 06:58:19 AM
No... try to READ ..

The EU won't let the UK stay in Galileo if we leave ... CRAP negotiating on the part of the UK and yet another reason of the folly of leaving

Kiss good bye to 1000's of well paid jobs

None of those well paid jobs will be mine since I don't have one so nothing to worry about for me  :D

Well this is what I read seems perfectly clear to me:

"A minister has resigned saying a row over involvement in the EU's Galileo satellite-navigation system shows the UK will be "hammered" in negotiations over a Brexit deal.

Science and universities minister Sam Gyimah quit after Mrs May said the UK was pulling out of Galileo.

The UK wanted to stay part of it but the EU said it would be banned from extra-secure elements of the project.

Mr Gyimah said it was a foretaste of the "brutal negotiations" to come."

To me this is clearly saying that under thd present deal proposal, i.e the EU/Chequers Deal the EU still won't allow the UK full access to the Galileo project. Hence even if this deal was agreed to (which it won't) the EU will pick and cgoose and take issue with us and treat us as in an inferior way.

Still won't matter. Once we leave the EU will be so hard pressed financially they won't be able to afford to continue these projects anyway.

Meanwhile the Rep of Ireland will be banging at our door wanting out of the EU and a reunification deal with the UK to avoid a collapsing economy. In which case welcome back to the UK Mobe! :welcome:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 02, 2018, 09:09:49 AM
Trench - don't you understand that with every post you just come across as more STUPID ?

...and you ain't even funny

Economics 101

Less well paid jobs - less tax paid

Carry on

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on December 02, 2018, 10:50:06 AM
Does one pity or mock someone who just keeps posting STUPID about stuff they are clueless about ?

If they can't work on Galileo please tell us what these bright folks will do ?

Answer

Leave the UK

If EU fails to exist in the near future, Galileo going to leave Europe? America doesn't need a bunch of bureaucrat from a higher order telling us how to be successful. Figure it out.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 02, 2018, 11:10:16 AM
If EU fails to exist in the near future, Galileo going to leave Europe? America doesn't need a bunch of bureaucrat from a higher order telling us how to be successful. Figure it out.

Trench and Silly BillyB are BOTH fully paid up members of the "I'm SO stupid, I don't even know when I busted", club ...

WHAT has the USA got to do with an EU funded 'GPS' alternative to GPS / Glonass ?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 02, 2018, 11:52:19 AM
Trench - don't you understand that with every post you just come across as more STUPID ?

...and you ain't even funny

Economics 101

Less well paid jobs - less tax paid

Carry on

We're talking about a handful of well paid jobs here and there. There will likely be a short term decline I tax receipts BUT gains made in other areas as a result of leaving the EU will far outweigh this. Take the many millions we pay into the EU each year in surplus of what we get out - a BIG saving there to be had. Other well paid jobs will come over time to replace those lost.

The big point is this Mobers, leaving the EU opens up massive opportunities for the UK. Opportunities that being a member of the EU has hindered. The US is a huge market that we are natural trading partners for. Think of the deals that could be created there. We will free ourselves of the massive debt burden the EU is building up for all its member nations. We will also no longer be tied (we hope) to awkward EU agreements and their incompetance in dealing with problems.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 02, 2018, 12:47:33 PM
We're talking about a handful of well paid jobs here and there.


NO 'we're' not ..Galileo is but one example ... 

Think the City of London Euro-trading and plenty of other banking / finance systems we'll lose access to


There will likely be a short term decline I tax receipts

There IS a black hole in govt receipts costing us 500 million GBP /week - remember that BS about 'saving' £350 million week from 'leave' ?... ( that took NO account of our rebate )

BUT gains made in other areas as a result of leaving the EU will far outweigh this.

Why did I know you'd try THAT one ?   We are having to PAY our commitment to the EU to leave and we'll get NOTHING for it ...

Other well paid jobs will come over time to replace those lost

In what industry ?


The big point is this Mobers, leaving the EU opens up massive opportunities for the UK.

No ...it closes FAR more doors than it opens ...  I keep giving you examples of how UK entrepreneurs are setting up businesses in the far east - taking advantage of free trade deals with .... the EU ....  these are guys who campaigned for us to leave and then invest elsewhere !

Opportunities that being a member of the EU has hindered. The US is a huge market that we are natural trading partners for. Think of the deals that could be created there. We will free ourselves of the massive debt burden the EU is building up for all its member nations. We will also no longer be tied (we hope) to awkward EU agreements and their incompetance in dealing with problems.

The US market is not nearly as big as  the EU
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BillyB on December 02, 2018, 01:04:34 PM
We're talking about a handful of well paid jobs here and there. There will likely be a short term decline I tax receipts BUT gains made in other areas as a result of leaving the EU will far outweigh this. Take the many millions we pay into the EU each year in surplus of what we get out - a BIG saving there to be had. Other well paid jobs will come over time to replace those lost.


America has tons of well paying jobs without having to handsomely pay a bunch of bureaucrats outside the country to provide them for us.

The sky may be falling for the EU with the UK leaving but the sky is not falling for the UK. The UK lived most of it's life just fine before the EU and can live the rest of it's life just fine without the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 02, 2018, 04:32:30 PM

NO 'we're' not ..Galileo is but one example ... 

Think the City of London Euro-trading and plenty of other banking / finance systems we'll lose access to


There IS a black hole in govt receipts costing us 500 million GBP /week - remember that BS about 'saving' £350 million week from 'leave' ?... ( that took NO account of our rebate )

Why did I know you'd try THAT one ?   We are having to PAY our commitment to the EU to leave and we'll get NOTHING for it ...

In what industry ?


No ...it closes FAR more doors than it opens ...  I keep giving you examples of how UK entrepreneurs are setting up businesses in the far east - taking advantage of free trade deals with .... the EU ....  these are guys who campaigned for us to leave and then invest elsewhere !

The US market is not nearly as big as  the EU

We won't be paying the £39bn if we leave under a 'No Deal' that was only agreed if everything was agreed which in the vote next Tuesday it won't be :)

We can argue for ever more if the UK will be better or worse off on leaving the EU. That will all come to pass soon enough. I will be happy to get back control of our borders once again and actually control immigration.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 02, 2018, 11:00:32 PM
America has tons of well paying jobs without having to handsomely pay a bunch of bureaucrats outside the country to provide them for us.

More STUPID from Silly BillyB

The UK will be paying much MORE in civil servants salaries and IT systems to cope with 'controlling' the flow of goods and people in and out and  :wallbash:

The sky may be falling for the EU with the UK leaving but the sky is not falling for the UK.

The sky has already fallen in as we were the fastest economy recovering from the 2007/8 crashes and now we have a black holes in public accounts and increased govt borrowing and a SLOW down in retail and car sales - with massive jobs layoffs

The UK lived most of it's life just fine before the EU and can live the rest of it's life just fine without the EU.

As if having read the above wouldn't be a clue for most people with a reasoning brain, I wonder if Silly BillyB has ever looked on a map ? 

The UK is currently a member of THE biggest free trade club and EU citizens are LEAVING the UK even though they don't  HAVE to leave

There are vacancies unfilled because the likes of Trenchies don't want to do the jobs they were willing to do and well

'Scoundrels' like the  Trenchies and BillyB's of this world choose to ignore the FACTS that get in the way of their 'national pride'   

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 04, 2018, 09:54:07 PM
Well, WHAT a day in Parliament, yesterday .. the govt got  SEVERE writ-slap  - re not revealing the full legal advice on the PM's deal

Nigel Farage - the IDIOT who is more responsible for this mess than most - left the UKIP party - as he doesn't recognise it .. it is now on the loony fringe of far right politics  AND the EU reveal that the UK can still stop article 50 - the process of leaving ..

links on all this and the crashing GBP here:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46446694 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46446694)

The UK is a rudderless ship and a farce and those responsible are abandoning it
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 05, 2018, 02:43:11 PM
Well, WHAT a day in Parliament, yesterday .. the govt got  SEVERE writ-slap  - re not revealing the full legal advice on the PM's deal

Nigel Farage - the IDIOT who is more responsible for this mess than most - left the UKIP party - as he doesn't recognise it .. it is now on the loony fringe of far right politics  AND the EU reveal that the UK can still stop article 50 - the process of leaving ..

links on all this and the crashing GBP here:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46446694 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46446694)

The UK is a rudderless ship and a farce and those responsible are abandoning it

Well it showed the gov can be defeated and it looks like it will be when it comes to a vote on the deal.

The legal advice is now out and essentially backs  the Brexiteers & DUP view that the EU hold over the UK on the backstop is not a good position at all. That and border trade issues may be cause negotiations to go on for years over all the ins & outs of it all.

Meanwhile there was a vote on Parliament having more say if the deal gets voted down. However, while there are enough MP's to come together on that there are no enough to decide on which way to proceed. So having more say is fine, the default though still remains 'No Deal' :D In a parliament in which so many groups exist with different ideas on how to proceed and none of them able to command enough MP votes to push through their groups way of proceeding, 'No Deal' is the Winning default scenario  :thumbsup:

The Pound of course is going down as the money men have already worked it through to this scenario already. It is but a temporary situation, once we have left the EU and life continues much the same it will recover to pre referendum levels.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 05, 2018, 11:33:34 PM
Well it showed the gov can be defeated and it looks like it will be when it comes to a vote on the deal.

The legal advice is now out and essentially backs  the Brexiteers & DUP view that the EU hold over the UK on the backstop is not a good position at all. That and border trade issues may be cause negotiations to go on for years over all the ins & outs of it all.

Ahem

...and WHO has been pointing out that this  VERY point would ensure a hard  'Brexit' won't happen - given the Good Friday Agreement and nearly  100 year old common Travel Agreement ?

One didn't need an team of expensive legal eagles to tell us this

Our nation is wasting billions on a wet dream that will leave us weaker and a laughing stock  - as other are making hay why 'we' shoot ourselves in the foot, over and over.


Meanwhile there was a vote on Parliament having more say if the deal gets voted down. However, while there are enough MP's to come together on that there are no enough to decide on which way to proceed. So having more say is fine, the default though still remains 'No Deal' :D In a parliament in which so many groups exist with different ideas on how to proceed and none of them able to command enough MP votes to push through their groups way of proceeding, 'No Deal' is the Winning default scenario  :thumbsup:

Another Trench, total misread of the situation ... mark my words - 'we' will NOT be crashing out without a deal ..

The Pound of course is going down as the money men have already worked it through to this scenario already. It is but a temporary situation, once we have left the EU and life continues much the same it will recover to pre referendum levels.

))

It has been 'temporary' since the GBP fell when the markets realised that 'we' might actually be daft enough to vote 'leave' ...

Time to stop making silly excuses


Until Mrs May wakes up and realises that the PEOPLE should be allowed to decide .. and you KNOW what that will mean - now 'we' all know better ... 'our' nation will continue on it's rudderless course.




Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: BC on December 06, 2018, 07:39:55 AM
Call it 600 Bn GBP trade with EU x EUR 0.20 which is the approx difference between exchange around pre brexit 1.35 EUR / GBP and current 1.12-1.15 we're talking over 100 Billion difference, each year, very loosely calculated.  Also accounts for a part of ever rising trade deficits with EU.  I expect GBP will fall even further, reaching parity or maybe even less with EUR.

The deficit in goods shows that the UK can't produce and beat EU prices in general.  With Brexit, hard or soft, already expensive UK will get even more-so.

I doubt those that voted Brexit were really aware how much it would cost is already costing them.  Add the cost of im-pex administration, compliance etc and a hard Brexit and the bill adds up pretty darn quick. And that's not counting business moving out to EU, at least partially and paying taxes elsewhere.  Quite interesting to think if the problem was immigrants, what has and will be lost in monetary terms could have housed 'em, trained 'em and put them on a payroll as productive, tax paying residents.  But hey.. that's the price for doing everything just to go nowhere in the end.  It'll be worth a couple extra at the pub come March to relish the moment but reality will hit shortly afterwards like a YUGE hangover.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 07, 2018, 07:54:43 PM
Call it 600 Bn GBP trade with EU x EUR 0.20 which is the approx difference between exchange around pre brexit 1.35 EUR / GBP and current 1.12-1.15 we're talking over 100 Billion difference, each year, very loosely calculated.  Also accounts for a part of ever rising trade deficits with EU.  I expect GBP will fall even further, reaching parity or maybe even less with EUR.

The deficit in goods shows that the UK can't produce and beat EU prices in general.  With Brexit, hard or soft, already expensive UK will get even more-so.

I doubt those that voted Brexit were really aware how much it would cost is already costing them.  Add the cost of im-pex administration, compliance etc and a hard Brexit and the bill adds up pretty darn quick. And that's not counting business moving out to EU, at least partially and paying taxes elsewhere.  Quite interesting to think if the problem was immigrants, what has and will be lost in monetary terms could have housed 'em, trained 'em and put them on a payroll as productive, tax paying residents.  But hey.. that's the price for doing everything just to go nowhere in the end.  It'll be worth a couple extra at the pub come March to relish the moment but reality will hit shortly afterwards like a YUGE hangover.

It will be better, tariffs can benefit a country like the UK by leveling thd playing field and making it feasible to produce goods at home for the home market. That makes us more productive which means the gov brings in more tax revenue plus tariff revenue - it can pay down its debt. More jobs at home are created as a result rather than those jobs being abroad then shipping the goods in. People have been taught to be very anti tariff/free trade but not all countries benefit from that, some are better off with tariffs.

Take Trump for example, now like him or loathe him he is a businessman with decades of experience. He is pro-tariff for a reason - he sees that the US like the UK doesn't benefit that well under Free Trade. The effect in thd US is much thd same as the UK, cheap imports are bought, stopping goods & hence jobs being produced at home. If more jobs are created at home through protectionist tariffs then wages rise to pay for potentially slightly more expensive goods.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 07, 2018, 11:20:32 PM
More delusional dreams - without any basis in fact - from TC

It will be better, tariffs can benefit a country like the UK by leveling thd playing field and making it feasible to produce goods at home for the home market. That makes us more productive which means the gov brings in more tax revenue plus tariff revenue - it can pay down its debt. More jobs at home are created as a result rather than those jobs being abroad then shipping the goods in. People have been taught to be very anti tariff/free trade but not all countries benefit from that, some are better off with tariffs.

More jobs will NOT be created at home., they will be lost and investment in the UK falls away - I've yet to see you counter why Brexit supporters would rather build electric cars in Singapore- which - guess what? - just did a tariff free deal with the EU - rather than invest in the UK ?   I can tell you - they are full of it .. THEY will make more money - YOU won't ....



Take Trump for example

 take him as far away as possible - given his clueless comments on 'Brexit'


, now like him or loathe him he is a businessman with decades of experience.

He's stiffed more creditors and banks and had cos go bankrupt ... THAT sort of 'businessman' ?


He is pro-tariff for a reason - he sees that the US like the UK doesn't benefit that well under Free Trade. The effect in thd US is much thd same as the UK, cheap imports are bought, stopping goods & hence jobs being produced at home. If more jobs are created at home through protectionist tariffs then wages rise to pay for potentially slightly more expensive goods.

DUH, TC aren't you aware that 'Trampu' is seeing  iconic firms targeted by counter sanctions invest OUTSIDE the US - they are fed up with the EU et al targeting them - every time a daft US President tries and fails in a tariff war ?
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 08, 2018, 03:51:17 AM
More delusional dreams - without any basis in fact - from TC

More jobs will NOT be created at home., they will be lost and investment in the UK falls away - I've yet to see you counter why Brexit supporters would rather build electric cars in Singapore- which - guess what? - just did a tariff free deal with the EU - rather than invest in the UK ?   I can tell you - they are full of it .. THEY will make more money - YOU won't ....



 take him as far away as possible - given his clueless comments on 'Brexit'


He's stiffed more creditors and banks and had cos go bankrupt ... THAT sort of 'businessman' ?


DUH, TC aren't you aware that 'Trampu' is seeing  iconic firms targeted by counter sanctions invest OUTSIDE the US - they are fed up with the EU et al targeting them - every time a daft US President tries and fails in a tariff war ?

And yet the US economy, jobs figures, etc has improved since Trump came to office, go figure, lol.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 08, 2018, 04:07:34 AM
And yet the US economy, jobs figures, etc has improved since Trump came to office, go figure, lol.

It was already improving, - as was all other western economies - regardless of leadership ...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 08, 2018, 10:53:06 AM
It was already improving, - as was all other western economies - regardless of leadership ...

You would say that, lol, face it Mobers you've been caught out! As you no doubt know many US blue collar workers  (or unemployed blue collar workers) voted for Trump - a rich guy and not at all of their natural persuasion because they were fed up of seeing their jobs constantly float abroad and continually being laid of often for lenthy or indefinate periods. Trump promised to bring back and protect those jobs through ending free trade deals and bringing back tariffs.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 08, 2018, 12:16:03 PM
You would say that

Do you doubt my stat ?  More fool you ...

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 10, 2018, 01:41:47 AM
A REALLy important day, today .. the BIG vote

A great start to the day

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643)

UK can cancel Brexit, says EU court
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 10, 2018, 07:53:00 AM
So, NO big vote - sorry - it is tomorrow - Tuesday ... well ..NO ..it's not ..

Mrs May now realises she'll LOSE so is hoping to persuade more folks to change their minds.. by delaying it ....

It really is time for this woman to quit and let the nation decide - and I do not mean letting Labour screw things up even more


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46509288 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46509288)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 10, 2018, 01:38:18 PM
So, NO big vote - sorry - it is tomorrow - Tuesday ... well ..NO ..it's not ..

Mrs May now realises she'll LOSE so is hoping to persuade more folks to change their minds.. by delaying it ....

It really is time for this woman to quit and let the nation decide - and I do not mean letting Labour screw things up even more


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46509288 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46509288)

Think you'll just find that the default of a 'No Deal' Bexit has just come into play ;D It's 'the' only way Theresa May has left to go :D

Looks like the Brexiteers have played a good game of check-mate!
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 10, 2018, 10:50:52 PM
Think you'll just find that the default of a 'No Deal' Bexit has just come into play ;D It's 'the' only way Theresa May has left to go :D

Looks like the Brexiteers have played a good game of check-mate!

There you go - again - with 'thinking'..

I REALLY do not know how to get you to understand ... they will never be a hard border with the Rep of Ireland .

THAT is why I've always told you this won't happen

In the mean time the GBP gets another good kicking ..18 month low ...
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 11, 2018, 06:09:43 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46515969 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46515969)

She and her team made the decision because the option of a horrendous defeat was more grim than the humiliation of delay.

Trench thinks this means more likelihood of the UK crashing out without a deal  ;D

They why is M
rs May desperately running to Brussels to get a 'crumb' from them ?

The game has changed and the people no longer trust Politicians
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 11, 2018, 11:59:56 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46515969 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46515969)

She and her team made the decision because the option of a horrendous defeat was more grim than the humiliation of delay.

Trench thinks this means more likelihood of the UK crashing out without a deal  ;D

They why is M
rs May desperately running to Brussels to get a 'crumb' from them ?

The game has changed and the people no longer trust Politicians

Because she wants to show that every avenue has been exhausted so people later dint turn around and say 'you could have gone back to brussels'.

Crucially it looks like she isn't going to get anything significant enough from Brussels.

Following on from her meetings today she has asked her cabinet to work on preparing for 'No Deal'.

If you consider all the possibilities then 'No Deal' is the easiest and perhaps only route forward:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

General Elections and further referendums ate unlikely to solve the problem. Theresa May in any case is likely to win a vote of no confidence since the DUP still say they will support her in a confidence vote. Brussels isn't interested in any further negotiations and the Brexiteers would be very much against such negotiations/entention to leaving the EU.

So 'No Deal' is looking the only viable way forward :D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 11, 2018, 12:16:34 PM
Because she wants to show that every avenue has been exhausted so people later dint turn around and say 'you could have gone back to brussels'.

VERY few folk buy that ....  The FACT is she new she'd lose and is hoping for a crumb from the EU to help her survive

Crucially it looks like she isn't going to get anything significant enough from Brussels.

OMG - we agree on something

Following on from her meetings today she has asked her cabinet to work on preparing for 'No Deal'.

DUH, we've been spending billions on this scenario for months - and the govt has been pilloried by the Public Accounts Committee - not enough realistic progress

If you consider all the possibilities then 'No Deal' is the easiest and perhaps only route forward:


Wrong

You even go on to quote the VERY link that busts your 'logic'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399)


So 'No Deal' is looking the only viable way forward :D

Sighs - no matter how often this is explained to you - it ain't going to happen ...  It is counter to the promise of the govt that nothing will happen to create a hard border with the Rep of Ireland ...It is unworkable and WHY it didn't take too much brain-power to predict this mess

We'll get an extension and the very worst case scenario will be a VERY soft 'Brexit' or ( better still ) none at all



Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 11, 2018, 01:29:54 PM
Sighs - no matter how often this is explained to you - it ain't going to happen ...  It is counter to the promise of the govt that nothing will happen to create a hard border with the Rep of Ireland ...It is unworkable and WHY it didn't take too much brain-power to predict this mess

We'll get an extension and the very worst case scenario will be a VERY soft 'Brexit' or ( better still ) none at all.

They can't do soft Brexit, i.e any sort of customs union or continue in the EU because:

a). The public voted to Leave the EU

and b) and more crucially,

b). Brexiteers will regard this as the last straw and jam full letters for a leadership election.

There WILL have to be a hard border in NI despite any promises made. The DUP have rejected her Chequers/EU deal AND they have rejected Customs Union/remaining an EU Member. They have embraced the idea of the UK leaving the EU. If as we expect the Chequers/EU deal will fail then they will have no other choice but to accept that no deal was possible and hence a hard border. After all that was not Theresa's choice so it's not something she pushed for. Personally I don't see why NI think they shouldn't have a hard border if the rest of the UK does. Any agreements made previous such in the peace process obviously don't stand if it is not possible to deliver on them.

Personally I think the DUP on the quiet accept that the no deal/hard border way is what is going to happen and they are not wishing to oppose that.

Are you SURE you don't want to come back Mobers? If you come back on bended knee we would be gladly :welcome: you back as a dear friend :D Surely preferable to ambling around like an extra on an Irish Famine production! all impoverished in tatty rags which if there is a hard border I can see Rep of Ireland struggling somewhat. Unless of course they decide they would prefer to be in our union :)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 12, 2018, 07:41:02 AM
Well the Tories have called a motion of no confidence in Theresa May. I think this is a silly move on the face of it if it is all/mostly the Brexiteers. At this point it takes away part of the hold over Theresa May that Brexiteers hold by having this as the threat/whip hand over her. Either way this may play out badly for them and reduces their ability to check her moves. I'm not even confident they will get the necessary votes needed to trigger a leadership election this evening. If they do then they will have to hope on getting a staunch Brexiteer like Boris Johnson in.

If Theresa May remains as leader they can only hope that enough time will be eaten up to make 'No Deal' the only option in addition to it being the default option.

There is of course a potential up side to this if Theresa wins the vote shortly.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 12, 2018, 11:20:25 AM
TC..you still post clueless

The EU and the UK govt have promised no hard border in Ireland

Before you hit the reply button....think of those words and figure out what I have been telling you...or any other person clueless person about this border... all along

There cannot and will not be a  ' hard brexit'
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 12, 2018, 11:25:32 AM
The 'brextremists' have finally got 48 members to try to unseat Mrs May?))

IF they win...which I doubt, they will simply force a vote in no confidence in the govt.

If they fail to get a Brextremist leader...and worse still Mrs May  wins...that is it re challenging her for another year and that also means her 'deal might result in a parliamentary vote of no confidence...

Your wet dream is doomed

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on December 12, 2018, 12:09:13 PM
Not very knowledgeable regarding this, but . . .

Was listening to some discussion of last deal that Ms May was working on.

Seems it involved a Brexit, but . . .
leaving the border completely open between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Now it occurred to me that, if this proceeds, it will eventually lead to a re-unification between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

So UK shrinking further ??
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 12, 2018, 12:29:39 PM

Now it occurred to me that, if this proceeds, it will eventually lead to a re-unification between Ireland and Northern Ireland.



ML, .

The DUP hold 10 seats and prop up Mrs May's right of centre govt.

N.Ireland voted REMAIN and the feeling is now 70/30 in favour of remain

Bizarrely, the DUP want to LEAVE - but know they might lose seats BIG time in a general election

There is NO, repeat NO  majority support  for a 'united' Ireland in N.Ireland... given the UK spends SO much more - proportionally - on N.Ireland citizens - compared to the rest of the UK.

Example : Free visits to the Doctors in the 'north' (UK) - 50 - 80 Euros in the 'South' ( Rep. of Ireland )

As you know, house prices in Eire are daft - due to the govt policy of not building social housing and private landlords cashing in ( buy to let )

You have TOTALLY misread the situation

The problem is that the near 100 year old Common Travel Agreement allows UK/ EIRE nationals to live / work as they please and this is enhanced and strengthened by the Good Friday Agreement

EVEN the DUP no not seek a 'hard border' and 'no deal'..  they REFUSE to accept that their good be 'customs controls' between N.I and the rest of the UK - it is a circle that just cannot be squared



You need to understand that 'my' people were planted in the North to 'Britify' 400 + years ago  it and they feel more British than any other part of the UK ....  it's a lot like Crimea - 'un-natural' ....

Ironically, an argument for rejecting any closer ties with the South used to be the absolute control the R.Catholic Church held over govt policy ... Now, Eire has a gay leader, will reduce the arduous abortion laws and has become MUCH more progressive than 'my' people - many of whom are stuck in the dark ages .

Now, the Scots might demand another referendum if the UK 'Brexits' in any manner ...so the UK could get smaller




Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: ML on December 12, 2018, 12:51:00 PM
Hey, I already admitted I was not knowledgeable about it.

But, even as such, I still think my instincts are right in that it could lead to a re-unification of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

It doesn't matter that NI is more 'British' than elsewhere and doesn't even matter the political parties or religions involved.

All I know is that when there are restrictions (or at least difficulties, delays, paperwork) regarding travel and commerce between certain regions . . . and lack of such restrictions between other regions . . . that there will eventually develop close connections between the regions with lack of restrictions.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 12, 2018, 02:19:39 PM
Well the news just in is that Theresa has won the confidence vote by 200 votes. So she won't have to face another confidence vote by her party on her leadership for another year as a minimum. That should take us well beyond Brexit leave date.

So the Brexiteers have shot their bolt if they were all Brexiteers that were the 48 letters. They won't be able to weild the fear of a confidence vote against her in present entanglements. The only upside for them is that Tory Remainers are also blocked now from replacing her :D . My biggest fear was that had she lost some ghastly Remain MP like Anna Soubry would become PM in a leadership contest. Remainers now will not be able to call a vote of no confidence in Mrs May if she decides to default to the 'No Deal' when her Chequers/EU bill gets defeated :)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 12, 2018, 02:25:44 PM
She won by 83 votes - meaning 117 of her own party have come out and will do all they can to ruin her 'Brexit Deal'


I'm just wondering when Labour and the other opposition parties will man up and put this govt out of it's misery

May's 'deal' has NO chance of getting the support it needs and it's time for the people to decide





Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 12, 2018, 02:51:24 PM
She won by 83 votes - meaning 117 of her own party have come out and will do all they can to ruin her 'Brexit Deal'


I'm just wondering when Labour and the other opposition parties will man up and put this govt out of it's misery

May's 'deal' has NO chance of getting the support it needs and it's time for the people to decide

Well we both agree that May's deal can't get the votes it needs, I'm happy enough with that :)

However she DOES have the votes needed to survive a no confidence vote. Corbyn knows that so he knows  that unless there is any change, basically the DUP in propping her gov up there is no point in manning up to a vote.

The DUP have said they reject the deal but crucially will support her in a no confidence vote under a no deal scenario, lol. That means it's going to be 'No Deal' - it's just a matter of time before we get to that as the new government position :)

As far as more Referendums and General Elections go those are off the table. It would just cause more bother for May than she needs and likely solve nothing. The Brexiteers have lost their stick with which to guide her to no deal but equally the Remainers are now blocked from removing her. Odds are she will take the easier less conteoversial route and follow along the now short path to 'No Deal' Brexit ;)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 12, 2018, 05:44:00 PM
Now, the Scots might demand another referendum if the UK 'Brexits' in any manner ...so the UK could get smaller

There's no way Theresa will allow a second Scottish Referendum. She's too busy with Bremit,  she won't want the complexit increased and she has probably had he fill off elections, votes & referendums, lol.

Furthermore, she will know once the UK leave the UK the SNP will struggle to convince voters of the soundness of the case to leave the UK. Essentially Scotland would have to reapply to join the EU, there would be issues over whether to use the Pound or Euro, AND they would likely face hard border issues that are now facing NI. So leaving the EU hamelin to strengthen the UK as all these regions of the UK are dependent on a close relationship with England. England is the real powerhouse of tge UK :D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on December 12, 2018, 05:44:33 PM
The issue is proving to be the catastrophe predicted.

Simple solution -- go back to the people and vote again.

What should have happened --those who promoted Brexit so hard should have had an actual detailed plan and put that to the vote.

Instead -- right out of the Trump playbook of empty rhetoric supported  by Russian money and trolls intent on causing trouble in the west eg lets scare the hell out of people with the we are being taken over by -fill in whatever colour/creed/nationality/ethnic group that invokes the most fear-who will take all our jobs,be criminals etc etc and appeal to the moron uneducated ( that includes clowns like TC who must have got his "qualification" in a wheaties packet )  fringe.

What did happen-the promoters of Brexit abandoned any role in actually executing it and were/are happy to stand back and fire shots at those stuck with the problem.

Go vote again-- this time with people understanding what it actually means to leave -- and the short and long term costs. :popcorn:

It was every bit as a dumb decision as the US making Trump & Co President!


Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 12, 2018, 06:41:58 PM
It's not that simple Jay to 'go vote again' - the moment that gets put in the motion it comes into conflict with the first vote - it challenges it's authority and whether any referendum has any validity. That's before you even get to the 'what question(s) to have on the ballot, lol. There are literally loads of choices now to be pit to voters from both Brexit & Remain camps, i.e Stay in EU, customs union, Norway agreement, EFTA, EEA, Canada Plus, Leave on WTA terms, etc, etc to name but a few.

Even if one of them won enough votes in a referendum there is likely NOT a majority in Parliament to deliver on it. That is before you get to cries of the legitimacy of a second referendum, the questions that should or shouldn't have been put to voters on it, etc.

If the same question is put your voters as on the first then people will ask why the other questions were not there and why the first referendum was not honoured so why should the second.

What is ludicrous is many Remainers don't realise the insanity of what they are doing in pressing so ardently for a second referendum. THERE IS JUST AS MUCH CONFUSION AMOUNG THE SECOND REFERENDUM CROWD IF NOT MORE THAN  THERE IS IN THE CURRENT BREXIT SITUATION. There solution of a second referendum offers no logical way out. It just digs the hole deeper. What's funniest is that those proposing a second referendum don't see this they are so he'll bent in their aim of getting a second referendum. I tell you though if they did get one the divisions would all immediately open up and thd quarrelling would begin over what should be on the second referendum.

Hillary Benn (Labour Remain) was on the BBC NEWS today again pressing for a second referendum. However, when it got to what question(s) to put on thd ballot he would go no further than to say it would need to be decidedone what questions to put on the ballot, lol. Yeah that is putting it mildly - there is no consensus on that from MP's nor the people, there never will be because as Mobe's favourite saying goes its a circle that can't never be squared.

The ONLY way out of this Brexit situation is to let it go to 'No Deal'. It is the default of both the UK and the EU, it is near now just over 3 months away so will solve this Brexit situation. The legislation had been passed for a No Deal Brexit so it's a one and only choice that HAS been approved by parliament and respects thd referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on December 12, 2018, 10:55:20 PM
It's not that simple Jay to 'go vote again'

Yes it is !
Hopefully people may have some idea what they are actually voting for next time !


People had zero idea of the mechanics and consequences of leaving -- and it is totally dishonest  for anyone to say otherwise.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 12, 2018, 11:08:48 PM
Well we both agree that May's deal can't get the votes it needs, I'm happy enough with that :)

However she DOES have the votes needed to survive a no confidence vote.

?

Do you think that the 'brextremits' will vote FOR her ?  They'd rather take the chance of a new leader and beating Corbyn on the basis he is really a Europhobe and his grass routes aren't in step

They only have to abstain and she'll lose...the DUP might even abstain / vote against - if she pushes her 'compromise plan'

Really, is there ANYTHING you understand ? ;)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 13, 2018, 12:16:33 AM
?

Do you think that the 'brextremits' will vote FOR her ?  They'd rather take the chance of a new leader and beating Corbyn on the basis he is really a Europhobe and his grass routes aren't in step

They only have to abstain and she'll lose...the DUP might even abstain / vote against - if she pushes her 'compromise plan'

Really, is there ANYTHING you understand ? ;)

That's crazy, the Brexiteers in the Tory party are not going to vote against their own party in a vote of no confidence. They are in a supremely placed position of being needed by May to get her deal through parliament. They can simply vote down her deal each time. No need to vote themselves out of office, lol. They know all opposition parties will vote against the deal each time also. The DUP understand the same but clearly you do not! Lol.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 13, 2018, 12:46:32 AM
Yes it is !
Hopefully people may have some idea what they are actually voting for next time !


People had zero idea of the mechanics and consequences of leaving -- and it is totally dishonest  for anyone to say otherwise.

They knew what they were voting for first time around. We had to put up with months of debate and drivel on it all. Anyone that doesn't follow after all of that is quite frankly too slow to be worthy of casting a vote. It's just the Remoaners trying to get another angle for another referendum and a Remain vote.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on December 13, 2018, 01:21:54 AM
They knew what they were voting for first time around.

No --if anyone knew -- where have they been in trying to execute?

Most of those involved promoting Brexit abdicated any responsibilty and left it to others to try and implement. :cluebat:
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 13, 2018, 01:56:17 AM
No --if anyone knew -- where have they been in trying to execute?

Most of those involved promoting Brexit abdicated any responsibilty and left it to others to try and implement. :cluebat:

Jay let me educate you, an outsider on UK politics ;D There was a clear win for Leave in the referendum. However, it was found by the UK supreme Court that parliament would still have to legislate it through, etc. I think this was wrong and unconstitutional/undemocratic the referendum was passed as a bill through parliament so should have stood as is without need for parliament to have any say on it - that is what got us in the present mess we are in Court Judges being too high & mighty and coming to a wrong undemocratic decision.

Anyway Parliament has a different make up to the referendum result which again is why it should have been decided solely by one or the other. The way we elect MP's and the way a referendum result get decided are totally different. The referendum result reflects thd whole country whereas MP's have to win first past thd post in their own constituencies  (regions). Simply put the referendum result was not reflective of the position of most MP's. Most MP's are/were pro EU, dome don't care that much and some will follow what their constituents want. Most though follow what they want and not the referendum result - that is where the problem comes in.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: JayH on December 13, 2018, 02:39:37 AM
Let me say it in the simplest terms for you --

the vote was an idea  --not a plan.

Catch phrases are fine when they are a header for politicking-- a header for actual implementable policy --  in this case it was only a header-with no meat and potatoes  below it.

The vote was taken without wide understanding -- and the fact is that all you Brexiteers  know that another vote will fail --for the simple reason that people are now better informed !

Government is not a simple thing -- and those that attempt to sell it that way do the constituents a disservice.

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 13, 2018, 04:01:37 AM
They knew what they were voting for first time around.

Yup - 'saving money' ? :)))   'We've' blown FAR more than 'we're' supposed to have saved ...

We had to put up with months of debate and drivel on it all. Anyone that doesn't follow after all of that is quite frankly too slow to be worthy of casting a vote. It's just the Remoaners trying to get another angle for another referendum and a Remain vote.

..and yet, now folks see the reality of the lies - the problems 'brexit' will cause  - our TC is scared of the result....

Remember, it was the 'slow' people - less intelligent - less qualified that voted to leave ;)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 13, 2018, 04:01:27 PM
Let me say it in the simplest terms for you --

the vote was an idea  --not a plan.

Catch phrases are fine when they are a header for politicking-- a header for actual implementable policy --  in this case it was only a header-with no meat and potatoes  below it.

The vote was taken without wide understanding -- and the fact is that all you Brexiteers  know that another vote will fail --for the simple reason that people are now better informed !

Government is not a simple thing -- and those that attempt to sell it that way do the constituents a disservice.

The vote was a vote - as simple as that Jay.

It was made clear by Cameron what was at stake and how serious it was.

The fact is that Remoaners take to a childish belittling of the first referendum and all that voted Leave. Then call for a non sensical second referendum where they are clueless as what should be on the ballot.

Theresa May can see this so thankfully has repeatedly said that 'there will be no second referendum'. That leaves her with two choices when her deal fails to get through Parliament. Either take the country to No Deal or step down as PM. When her deal fails she may look at it that her plan has failed and she doesn't intend to stay on as PM to another election so may choose to step down. By the time of choosing a new leader we are probably talking Jan or Feb so likely a No Deal Brexiteer like Boris Johnson will be chosen to take us through that in March.

In fact that is a very likely scenario, she can step down gracefully instead of looking like she was forced out and not have to do loads of work when her days in office are limited. Hence why having annouced that she will not go into another General Election as PM she is now a lame duck PM. Could even be a matter of days if not weeks.
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 13, 2018, 04:20:08 PM
Yup - 'saving money' ? :)))   'We've' blown FAR more than 'we're' supposed to have saved ...

..and yet, now folks see the reality of the lies - the problems 'brexit' will cause  - our TC is scared of the result....

Remember, it was the 'slow' people - less intelligent - less qualified that voted to leave ;)

Mobe, if we raise tariffs on the EU as a result of a 'NO DEAL' under WTA terms we will be better off. We currently have a huge balance of payments deficit with the EU - That's loads of money flowing OUT of our economy each year. That means there is less money around to share our to pay wages and a large part of why wages for the UK have been falling consistently since the seventies.

If we raise tariffs we stem the flow of money flowing out of our economy. More of that can be produced here and we will have more jobs as a result. All of that amounts to better paid jobs, a better performing economy and better government finances. All good I would say :)
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 13, 2018, 11:40:34 PM
Mobe, if we raise tariffs on the EU as a result of a 'NO DEAL' under WTA terms we will be better off.

:)))

At a time when Singapore and FAR more important - Japan  -have just done a deal with the EU for tariff free / much reduced tariffs ? !

Must you keep proving what an economic numpty you are ?  IF we 'no deal' - we'll be paying duty and we import more than we export - DUH   



We currently have a huge balance of payments deficit with the EU - That's loads of money flowing OUT of our economy each year. That means there is less money around to share our to pay wages and a large part of why wages for the UK have been falling consistently since the seventies.

That figure will go UP as the cars we assemble will be made elsewhere due to the problems of importing / exporting parts

If we raise tariffs we stem the flow of money flowing out of our economy. More of that can be produced here and we will have more jobs as a result. All of that amounts to better paid jobs, a better performing economy and better government finances. All good I would say :)

Honestly, I have never read more 'clueless'

Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: Trenchcoat on December 15, 2018, 12:53:41 PM
:)))

At a time when Singapore and FAR more important - Japan  -have just done a deal with the EU for tariff free / much reduced tariffs ? !

Must you keep proving what an economic numpty you are ?  IF we 'no deal' - we'll be paying duty and we import more than we export - DUH   



That figure will go UP as the cars we assemble will be made elsewhere due to the problems of importing / exporting parts

Honestly, I have never read more 'clueless'

Mobe, if you really have moved your business operation to Rep of Ireland it's looking pretty had for you. The clock is ticking and Theresa May is convieniently using up plenty of time on it :)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46577359

It's gonna be a 'No Deal' hard Brexit as there will be no time to do anything else. Even the legislation for another referendum won't get through in time :D The Chequers Deal and any time extention will be voted down by the Brexiteers in Parliament. When tariffs get raised on the Irish border Mobe the Rep of Ireland is quickly going to resemble Palestine - an area staved of economic activity. When this happens Mobe make your way to the NI border, I will be there to vouch for you to allow your safe crossing ;D
Title: Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
Post by: msmob on December 15, 2018, 02:29:40 PM
Mobe, if you really have moved your business operation to Rep of Ireland it's looking pretty had for you. The clock is ticking and Theresa May is convieniently using up plenty of time on it :)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46577359 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/u