How did Aleksander Lukashenko win, again?

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal:

From the outset of this editorial we'll begrudgingly give Aleksander Lukashenko credit for winning the election.

Yes, he had the most votes of any single candidate.

The losers of course are the Belarussian people. You can also count the Europeans, and by proxy the USA, as losers too.

Lukashenko is brilliant. Again, as he's done before, the president of Belarus played Moscow like a fiddle (but they are getting tired of it all), while he played the Europeans for fools. Like those in power before Winston Churchhill, they were foolish beyond belief.

Member states of the Council of Europe offered increased aid and opened trade access if Lukashenko would allow a more open election process for president this time around. They gambled that the Belarussian people would rise up and throw him out.

His contracting economy needed a boost from somewhere so in no time at all there was Lukashenko granting free TV access to not just a couple of unknowns, but full and free access to a total of 9 candidates. Not just any 9 candidates, but at least 5 with national credibility.

Who cares if all the media is owned/controlled by the government? Each opposing candidate received generous access to free radio and print media too. They even had free televised debates to slug it out amongst themselves.

One candidate didn't join those debates, however. Aleksander Lukashenko stayed at home.

On the eve of the election, opposition and foreign websites began to disappear from Belarus's access to the worldwide web. Opposition and independent journalists suddenly found themselves without a voice as the free TV and radio were also gone.

There was an eerie silence across Belarus.

What was up?

A last minute deal worth Billions of gas credits from Russia, that was "whats up."

Once again, Russia had outbid Europe for Belarus.

A confident Lukashenko even allowed national TV cameras to watch as his 6 year old son Nikolai cast a vote for president and the proud father wore a doting smile as he watched the boy place the ballot in with all the others to be counted. Just in case you're wondering, 6 year olds don't vote in Belarus.

On election day the European monitors decried widespread election irregularities while the CIS (Russian dominated) monitors somehow praised the same election process as free and fair.

By mid afternoon Facebook, Twitter, vkontate, LiveJournal and most other social media had mysteriously disappeared from most Belarussian internet connections. Cell phone outages followed. Lukashenko had learned from last March when the youth used social media and mobile texting to hold the opposition together during the March independence day rallies.

So how did Lukashenko outsmart his European counterparts or was it simply Russia's fault for placing a last minute ace on the table?

Not really. Lukashenko won the election democratically. When the Europeans demanded that a credible opposition be allowed to exist, he gave in. When they demanded free and equal access to media, he stepped aside and opened the doors.

To understand how he conquered yet another 5 year term to add to the 16 years he's already governed, one should simply look at the exit polls and then the final counts. It was just 2 days ago that polling data began to leak out to the outside world. Report after report showed Lukashenko polling no more than 25-28% per polling location. Nobody dared say it, but could it be that Europe's last Communist dictator would finally go down in defeat?

He did not receive the 79.7% the government claimed. Truth is, he didn't need to do that well to win.

As an example, here are the official numbers released by the federal Counting Commission from a polling location just outside of Minsk:

Kostusev - 5
Lukashenko - 218
Mikhalevich - 7
Nyaklyaeu - 76
Romanchuk - 74
Rymashevsky - 16
Sannikov - 205
Statkevich - 8
Tereshchenko - 15
Uss - 4
Against all - 56   (*Belarus gives an option to vote against all candidates)

And the senario repeated itself precinct after precinct.

What the Europeans hadn't anticipated is that Lukashenko would open up the process to every level of opposition--to pit them against themselves while he sat back and waited. The one thing the opposition didn't do was form coalitions to run together.

He won.

He also outsmarted Moscow. Lukashenko understands very well that Russia needs Belarus as a buffer against NATO. So to get the best deal from Russia he danced with the European democrats, whispering all the right things in their ears, right up to the very end when Moscow flinched.

As he knew they would.

[mendeleyev]

Update: At first the government claimed just a "few hundred" citizens had joined protests in the capital city of Minsk. Now the KGB reports over 600 arrests.

7 of Lukashenko's nine election rivals were arrested with five candidates beaten up by riot police. 3 of them are being held by the KGB, 2 are under house arrest and 2 more in police detention.

Reports are that some arrested protestors are receiving sentences soon after their arrest is processed. The maximum is 15 years but one police spokesman told a reporter that ordinary citizens would likely see between 15 and 30 days for a first time offense. Opposition leaders however are more likely to see sentences of up to 7 years or longer.

[Gator]

Update: At first the government claimed just a "few hundred" citizens had joined protests in the capital city of Minsk. Now the KGB reports over 600 arrests.

The math is explainable; the police arrested every demonstrator. 

Good report.  Thanks.  Yes, Luka played the Europeans like fools.  The Europeans opened the election process, yet the Europeans were too simplistic in their demands and overview.  I recall in the South in the 1970s how national Black leaders would not only open the election process, but would work with local leaders to organize every step.  I had the pleasure of spending time with Julian Bond during one of these operations.  The Europeans failed to enable this.   

Authority, power and influence are the three keystones of political governance.  Closing the media on the eve of the election certainly sent a message that Luka had all the power although neither the authority or the influence (only 25% support).  The FSU citizens have always been impressed by power.  Power usually prevails over influence in the short term but not the long term (e. g., the Shah in Iran).   
 

[JR]

I Skype with a Bolorussian born woman every day and boy is she pissed about this.

Can anyone say corruption? I knew you could

[Sailor291]

My wife is from Ukraine and repeats what is said on Ukrainian/Russian news.  Occording to them, the Belarussian people love Lukashenko, say that their economy is booming, pensions are better than Ukraine and or Russia, food prices are great, etc, you get my point.  Now, I obviously know that their is probably much much more to that story, I really am not going to belive that its all wine and roses in Belarus and that the population adores their dear leader, so, does anybody out there know the real story?

[Blues Fairy]

The math is explainable; the police arrested every demonstrator. 

60,000 people showed up on the square - that's the approximate figure I get from the eye witnesses.  Definitely more than 4 years ago - that's the only good news.

Unfortunately, the opposition is just as powerless as 4 years ago, and no real leadership has emerged. 
Too bad the US has no vested interest in this part of the world to interfere.  However, seeing how "enthusiastically" this administration supported the Iranian opposition, I am not surprised at all.   

[Shadow]

Seems we are stuck with the guy for another term.
He is a master of playing political games. However if you read that he has support of the Russian people of government, better think again. The last years there have been multiple incidents, the one thing that Russia is considering that they know the devil...

[mendeleyev]

The Mendeleyev Journal.

The Belarussian opposition might just be finished for a very long time. It appears that the Communist dictator of Belarus, who has publically lauded both Adolf Hitler and Josef Stalin as two of his personal inspirations, has taken a page from history and used it against his opponents.

Soon after World War II, Josef Stalin invited Russian emigres to return home. Some of the Soviet Union’s finest engineers, scientists, educators and titans of business had fled the country in the years leading up to the war. Thinking that perhaps the war had changed Stalin’s outlook and missing their homeland, many accepted his offer.

However soon after arriving home Stalin began to systematically jail or execute the returnees as traitors, save for those who offered an immediate transferable skill needed to rebuild the Soviet Union after the war. The lives who were spared found themselves under constant surveillance as they were treated as traitors whose only reason for remaining alive was a skill that was expected to be shared with others deemed more loyal to the CCCP.

In the months leading up to the December 2010 elections in Belarus, dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko opened up the media and rights to free assembly to his opposition. Was he mad? Had he turned over a new leaf? Was the last dictator in Europe about to allow the transition toward a more democratic Belarus?

Public meetings replaced secret gatherings. The opposition came out of the woodwork and for the first time a real force for political change seemed to have emerged for the Belarussian people.

As just one example, on 17 December a star-studded assembly of opposition voices was held in the assembly hall of gymnasium #23 on Melnikaite Street. Citizens who attended were given opportunity to meet leading opposition presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov. Sannikov had enlisted an impressive team: first head of independent Belarus Stanislau Shushkevich, well-known film director Yury Khashchavatski, former minister of defense of Belarus Pavel Kazlouski, director of Free Theatre Mikalai Khalezin, head of presidential candidate’s campaign office Uladzimir Kobets, People’s Artist of Belarus Zinaida Bandarenka.

The large assembly hall was overcrowded. Even former aide to Alyaksandr Lukashenka and member of the “house of representatives” of the 1st and 2nd convocations Viktar Kuchynski came to the meeting.

Ordinary citizens who had held little hope of change were suddenly energized by the apparent new гласность (openness/free speech). Meeting by meeting citizens ventured out slowly at first, and then by the hundreds as it seemed there was no resistance to the meetings by the government.

On the day after the election results were announced, independent exit-polls were indicating that in truth Lukashenko had garnered only 31% in the entire country. It looked as if he lost the election and a second round was to be expected. Charges of vote fraud rang thru the air.

Six major opposition candidates for President – Andrei Sannikov, Vladimir Neklayev, Rygor Kostusiov, Yaroslav Romanchuk, Vitaly Rymashevsky and Nikolay Statkevich called on people to come to October Square in Minsk at 8 pm.

Some 40 thousand persons gathered in the square only to be greeted with news that the headquarters of Vladimir Neklayev had been raided by the special police forces. According to Chapter 97, activists of Neklayev’s campaign were supposed to bring loudspeakers to the square, but special police units seized the vehicle with the equipment. Mr. Neklayev was beaten up and driven away in an ambulance. The sound equipment was confiscated.

Nevertheless as bravely reported by Chapter 97, www.chapter 97.org, several loudspeakers reached the square where candidates for President Andrei Sannikov, Nikolay Statkevich, Vitaly Rymashevsky, Rygor Kostusiov, Yaroslav Romanchuk, and Dmitri Uss had gathered. The candidates addressed tens of thousands of people who had assembled at the Square. Finally united in opposition, the candidates for President demanded to be let in to the Government building in order to hold talks.

It was at that point that the meeting was met with force as KGB and riot police began making arrests and beating participants. Close to 700 persons were arrested in the following hours and the arrests continue as the KGB selectively visits those of influence who had dared hope that change was possible.

Today, hardly a week after the election, Lukashenko remains in power. The oppositon, whose leaders sit in jail, has been thoroughly “outed” and there remains no secrets of who in the country opposed the dictator. Lukashenko has betrayed his own people just as Stalin tricked intelluctal and skilled emigres who returned after the Great Patriotic War.

Baring a yet unseen miracle it appears at this point to have been a complete rout.


Complete commentary and photos at the Mendeleyev Journal.

[mendeleyev]

From today's Mendeleyev Journal:

In a follow up to our coverage on the recent Belarussian presidential elections in December, strangely, the media went "dark" on 19 December, election day in Belarus. Gmail was blocked as was Facebook and other popular Russian language social media in an apparent move to halt communication between opposition groups. Vote rigging was obvious to those honest enough to open their eyes. Shamefully, the CIS observers on hand were either asleep or less than vigilant.

Journalists Alexey Sidorenko (Global Voices) and Evgeny Morozov were able to get tweets out that at times nothing on the internet could be accessed that used "https” in the URL. That's an almost complete shutdown. Mobile cellular communication was often down as well. Still, citizen media reports were being filed before, during and after the events in the center of Minsk.

Young Belarussian students braved the dangers to march for free elections. One man reported that he had communicated with his daughter, a University student, via ICQ. She told him this: In the dormitory, authorities are coming into the rooms with the Eviction Act and write down those who didn't vote early on a piece of paper, citing their eviction from the dorms “for creating unsanitary conditions” as the reason.

Reports on LiveJournal and Global Voices relayed stories like this one: We are home, alive and in one piece. My husband, his brother and I carried out a woman covered in blood. There were two ambulances behind the government building filled with people (6-8 injured people in each one), mainly women with head injuries. They were breaking people into groups and chasing them into “pockets” - and there, they were throwing them on the ground and beating them. They were even beating underage girls - beating them with their feet and sticks, and happily laughing as they did it.The feeling is that there's a junta and fascism in the country.

I'll tell you honestly, I was scared. But I'm happy that the regime fears me and I'm proud of those who attended the protests. Forgive me, but it's hard after what I've seen with my own eyes.

The main plazas in Minsk were filled with thousands of citizens protesting the flawed vote. As broadcast journalist Natalya Radina spoke on EURORADIO that Lukashenko has declared a war on his own people, thousands of Belrussian citizens had gathered at the centre of Minsk to protest electoral fraud after the polls closed but as they tried to storm the government headquarters and the central election commission building, they were dispersed by riot police. Hundreds of protesters and a number of journalists, including a reporter and photographer for the New York Times were injured.

Warning: This video is graphic with gunshots and scenes of citizens being beaten by Belarussian riot troops.


Mendeleyev Journal:

[mendeleyev]

Update on the election results:

(The figures below are taken from the site http://www.telegraf.by)

On December 20, the President of the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced the following preliminary results:
Alexander Lukashenka 79.67%
Andrei Sannikov 2.56%
Yaroslav Romanchuk and Rygor Kastusiou each garnered 1.97%
Vladimir Niakliaeu 1.77%

However, two independent agencies, one Russian and one Lithuanian, report entirely different results from the exit polls.

The Russian agency, Effective Inside Communications, reported the data as:
Alexander Lukashenka 38.1%
Vladimir Niakliaeu 11.7%
Andrei Sannikov 11.6%
Yaroslav Romanchuk 9.9%


The Lithuanian Agency, Socium Sociological Service, reported:
Alexander Lukashenka 38.4%
Vladimir Niakliaeu 18.7%
Andrei Sannikov 12.2%
Nikolai Statkevich 7.8%
Yaroslav Romanchuk 5.4%


In both independent results Lukashenka would have been received 38%. That would have forced him into a second round and due to the number of opposition candidates there was no room for him to negotiate a coalition to pick up additional votes in a second round. That is perhaps why the Central Election Commission awarded him the 80% and called the election in his favour.

Lukashenka may not have won the votes, but in a perverse way he "won" the election. Western media no longer talk about this election, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev congratulated for his re-election (capping off the victory with a discount on the price of gas), and the opposition leaders are in jail.

Mikhail Miasnikovitch, Chairman of the National Academy of Sciences, was appointed Prime Minister, and so it's business as normal in Belarus.

[wicheese]

Lukashenka may not have won the votes, but in a perverse way he "won" the election. Western media no longer talk about this election, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev congratulated for his re-election (capping off the victory with a discount on the price of gas), and the opposition leaders are in jail.

Mikhail Miasnikovitch, Chairman of the National Academy of Sciences, was appointed Prime Minister, and so it's business as normal in Belarus.

Mendy,

Little different from all the countries around the world with similar leaders, like Iran, Venezula, N. Korea, Myanmar etc. etc.  In the west we only care if it'll increase the gas price of our oversized SUV's or other products we might be buying.  As you said, more of the same as we have very short memories and just might someday be surprised when the same thing happens here (something which we thought would always be impossible).

[mendeleyev]

You're right, and what a scary thought.

[tfcrew]

Opposition Still Reeling After Belarus Crackdown...
In recent weeks, news of protests in favor of democracy has focused on the Arab world. But protests are taking place outside this region as well. In December, officials in Belarus squashed demonstrations following an election.

http://www.npr.org/2011/02/18/133869545/opposition-still-reeling-after-belarus-crackdown