Russia's next president

[mendeleyev]

A member send a PM asking about the elections and as I was already working on a   piece for the Mendeleyev Journal, perhaps it is time to answer his questions.
 
President Medvedev is in the region of Vladimir this weekend, chairing preparations for next year's celebrations of the 1150th anniversary of the establishment of the Russian state. That will be a big deal and Russia will put on quite a celebration, so for those interested in visiting Russia, next year will be a great time to enjoy those festivities.
 
It was on 02 March 2008 that Dmitry Medvedev was selected as the third democratically elected president of a free Russia. In some ways in seems like just yesterday but in other ways it seems like light years ago. Russian watchers, like the gentleman who asked these questions, are very interested in what will happen in the coming election of 04 March 2012 because on that date Russia will hold elections for the office of president and naturally there is wide speculation as to whether it will be President Medvedev or Prime Minister Putin standing for office.
 
Constitutionally the date is normally scheduled on either the first or second Sunday of March, and the election would have been scheduled for 11 March, however that particular Sunday will be a regular working day for most Russians because the previous week will have been "Women's Day" in Russia, a public holiday.
 
So, who will run on 04 March: will it be Dmitry Medvedev or Vladimir Putin? I can only tell you what I think and must preface that with the real possibility that I could be wrong.
 
One thing is certain, however, that the tandem of Medvedev and Putin has done an excellent job of sidelining the potential opposition. How can the opposition run against the unknown? It is an election where the majority party refused to name their candidate and could likely continue this posture right up to the last minute. Think of the headaches it gives to any opposition: It is impossible to hold debates if you don't know who is running. Effective political advertising attacks the opponent, but how do you advise against a blank ticket? Further, how can a party raise voter interest and funds for campaigns if there is no opposing candidate?
 
Also we must acknowledge than in Russia the opposition has been sidelined and weakened by more than just a blank ticket. There are those who say that the two men are really one in the same and so the opposition should run against both. Truth is, both have been very effective in carving out different images while maintaining a closely held agenda, making it difficult to run against both. Truth also is that when you combine the popularity indexes of both men, it would be madness to challenge both from a pure numbers perspective.
 

[mendeleyev]

On the other hand even native Russian journalists are beginning to speak and write more openly of signs of friction between the two camps. In comments that went largely unnoticed by the Western press during the recent BRICS nations conference in China, Medvedev proclaimed that he had not ruled out running and then said, "It is high time for changes." That remark came on the heels of Medvedev's public statement that Mr. Putin's comments regarding Libya were "unacceptable."
 
Those who read my blog or articles in publications understand that I've not been part of the "Putin is King and Medvedev is his lackey" crowd. True that the two have been together since University days in Leningrad/Saint Petersburg, but both are strong and independent minded individuals. Dmitry Medvedev comes across differently with his collegiate sweaters, his internet blogging savvy and skills as an amateur photographer while accompanied by his well-liked wife, Svetlana. Medvedev is a true "people person" whereas Putin is styled as a loner and prefers to be shown bare chested while shooting a lion in the wild. Make no mistake however, Medvedev is no pushover as he is so often, and so very wrongly, pictured in Western media.
 
There is a comfort factor also to be considered. Putin had grown tired and bored with diplomatic life. That is a daily task of those who would take on the title of President of a powerful country. He dislikes the USA and just about any other nation aligned with NATO and he quickly grows bored at important meetings of the G7 (and G20), BRICS, etc. Medvedev on the other hand is much more of a people person and revels in the game of diplomacy.

Conversely it is Putin who revels in the idea of a "father of the nation" image, conveniently bypassing the Yeltsin legacy as good and bad as it was in those early days. It was during Putin's second term that the Kremlin had the Russian Orthodox Church investigate the idea of a return to a very limited Romanov dynasty idea whereby a powerful Prime Minister or President would run the country but with the symbols of an old European legacy restored, in name only of course.

At that time some speculated that Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna who lived in Madrid with her son Georgy Mikhailovich could be used to form some sort of basis for a partially restored Monarchy with Vladimir Putin in real control of the workings of the government. The potential pitfalls were/are many and the idea has not surfaced again as of late.

That idea however wasn't just Putin's. As I wrote in 2008, Kremlin leaders in the Yeltsin and then Putin administrations had been enchanted with the concept of "replacing the current Russian Federation Constitution with one that restores some form of monarchy, the Kremlin could continue the bolstering of Russian pride and culture while at the same time issuing a call to former Russian nations/republics to rejoin the Federation." "Given that Russia was governed in tandem with the Tsars, and the Russian Orthodox Church providing political stability along the way, perhaps the first step was the accomplishment of the family of Tsar Nicholas II as minor saints back in 2000."

It was during the time, October 2008, that the Supreme Court declared Nicholas II and his family to be victims of political repression. Soon thereafter Alexander Zakatov, director of the Romanov Emperor House Chancery, announced that the government had cleared the way for the Romanov Chancery to return to Saint Petersburg in fundraising and charitable roles. Zakatov announced then that the Romanov name was “returning to its native land, working in cultural, charitable and other nonpolitical programs for Russia’s benefit — that is what the house (of Romanov) is able and indebted to do.”

[mendeleyev]

 It was during the time, October 2008, that the Supreme Court declared Nicholas II and his family to be victims of political repression. Soon thereafter Alexander Zakatov, director of the Romanov Emperor House Chancery, announced that the government had cleared the way for the Romanov Chancery to return to Saint Petersburg in fundraising and charitable roles. Zakatov announced then that the Romanov name was “returning to its native land, working in cultural, charitable and other nonpolitical programs for Russia’s benefit — that is what the house (of Romanov) is able and indebted to do.”
 At that time some speculated that Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna who lived in Madrid with her son Georgy Mikhailovich could be used to form some sort of basis for a partially restored Monarchy with Vladimir Putin in real control of the workings of the government. The potential pitfalls were/are many and the idea has not surfaced as of late.Back to 2012: Who will run? I believe that the rift has widened. Yet their visions on the greatness of Russia are enough to continue in tandem for awhile. More importantly however, there simply is no opposition today strong enough to mount a successful challenge to either of the two. Recent poles however do indicate that Russians have tired of a two-headed leadership, the Russian double-headed eagle notwithstanding, and would like to see one leader at the top.If Vladimir Putin were as strong as some pundits opine, then he'd have already announced. That is his nature--in fact he loves a good fight and would rather bloody a worthy opponent that rollover a weak nobody. He understands that Medvedev, in many ways his partner, is up for a fight and neither is at this point guaranteed a win. Putin understands that the power in the shadows, those who really rule Russia, have grown in numbers and are split in allegiance. He simply doesn't have a green light from those who really matter.Neither does Medvedev. But Medvedev is the name on the upswing right now and for what it's worth, I would not be surprised to see Dmitry Medvedev on the ticket for another term. Many could argue that this outcome would be good for Russia.Those in the shadows, the ones who truly dispense power, see the world differently from the old KGB bosses of yesteryear. I am not the only one who suggests that Putin despises Obama and must work hard to conceal his contempt. A great number of those in the shadows understand that Medevdev's diplomacy has done much to open Russia to trade and diversification of the economy. Putin on the other hand seems to have little interest in diversification as long as there is oil and gas in the ground.

[mendeleyev]

Sorry for the font issue.


(The article in its entirely is available at the Mendeleyev Journal)

[JohnDearGreen]

It was during the time, October 2008, that the Supreme Court declared Nicholas II and his family to be victims of political repression. Soon thereafter Alexander Zakatov, director of the Romanov Emperor House Chancery, announced that the government had cleared the way for the Romanov Chancery to return to Saint Petersburg in fundraising and charitable roles. Zakatov announced then that the Romanov name was “returning to its native land, working in cultural, charitable and other nonpolitical programs for Russia’s benefit — that is what the house (of Romanov) is able and indebted to do.”
 At that time some speculated that Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna who lived in Madrid with her son Georgy Mikhailovich could be used to form some sort of basis for a partially restored Monarchy with Vladimir Putin in real control of the workings of the government. The potential pitfalls were/are many and the idea has not surfaced as of late.Back to 2012: Who will run? I believe that the rift has widened. Yet their visions on the greatness of Russia are enough to continue in tandem for awhile. More importantly however, there simply is no opposition today strong enough to mount a successful challenge to either of the two. Recent poles however do indicate that Russians have tired of a two-headed leadership, the Russian double-headed eagle notwithstanding, and would like to see one leader at the top.If Vladimir Putin were as strong as some pundits opine, then he'd have already announced. That is his nature--in fact he loves a good fight and would rather bloody a worthy opponent that rollover a weak nobody. He understands that Medvedev, in many ways his partner, is up for a fight and neither is at this point guaranteed a win. Putin understands that the power in the shadows, those who really rule Russia, have grown in numbers and are split in allegiance. He simply doesn't have a green light from those who really matter.Neither does Medvedev. But Medvedev is the name on the upswing right now and for what it's worth, I would not be surprised to see Dmitry Medvedev on the ticket for another term. Many could argue that this outcome would be good for Russia.Those in the shadows, the ones who truly dispense power, see the world differently from the old KGB bosses of yesteryear. I am not the only one who suggests that Putin despises Obama and must work hard to conceal his contempt. A great number of those in the shadows understand that Medevdev's diplomacy has done much to open Russia to trade and diversification of the economy. Putin on the other hand seems to have little interest in diversification as long as there is oil and gas in the ground.

The font is easy to change.  Just highlite all the text and choose a font and font size from the options above.

[mendeleyev]

Back to 2012: Who will run? Many believe that the rift has widened. Yet their visions on the greatness of Russia are enough to continue in tandem for awhile. More importantly however, there simply is no opposition today strong enough to mount a successful challenge to either of the two. Recent poles however do indicate that Russians have tired of a two-headed leadership, the Russian double-headed eagle notwithstanding, and would like to see one leader at the top.

If Vladimir Putin were as strong as some pundits opine, then he’d have already announced. That is his nature–in fact he loves a good fight and would rather bloody a worthy opponent that rollover a weak nobody. He understands that Medvedev, in many ways his partner, is up for a fight and neither is at this point guaranteed a win. Putin understands that the power in the shadows, those who really rule Russia, have grown in numbers and are split in allegiance. He simply doesn’t have a green light from those who really matter.
Neither does Medvedev. But Medvedev is the name on the upswing right now and for what it’s worth, I would not be surprised to see Dmitry Medvedev on the ticket for another term. Many could argue that this outcome would be good for Russia.

Those in the shadows, the ones who truly dispense power, see the world differently from the old KGB bosses of yesteryear. I am not the only one who suggests that Putin despises Obama and must work hard to conceal his contempt. A great number of those in the shadows understand that Medevdev’s diplomacy has done much to open Russia to trade and diversification of the economy. Putin on the other hand seems to have little interest in diversification as long as there is oil and gas in the ground.

Back to 2012: Who will run? Many believe that the rift has widened. Yet their visions on the greatness of Russia are enough to continue in tandem for awhile. More importantly however, there simply is no opposition today strong enough to mount a successful challenge to either of the two. Recent poles however do indicate that Russians have tired of a two-headed leadership, the Russian double-headed eagle notwithstanding, and would like to see one leader at the top.

If Vladimir Putin were as strong as some pundits opine, then he’d have already announced. That is his nature–in fact he loves a good fight and would rather bloody a worthy opponent that rollover a weak nobody. He understands that Medvedev, in many ways his partner, is up for a fight and neither is at this point guaranteed a win. Putin understands that the power in the shadows, those who really rule Russia, have grown in numbers and are split in allegiance. He simply doesn’t have a green light from those who really matter.

Neither does Medvedev. But Medvedev is the name on the upswing right now and for what it’s worth, I would not be surprised to see Dmitry Medvedev on the ticket for another term. Many could argue that this outcome would be good for Russia.

Those in the shadows, the ones who truly dispense power, see the world differently from the old KGB bosses of yesteryear. I am not the only one who suggests that Putin despises Obama and must work hard to conceal his contempt. A great number of those in the shadows understand that Medevdev’s diplomacy has done much to open Russia to trade and diversification of the economy. Putin on the other hand seems to have little interest in diversification as long as there is oil and gas in the ground.

Both men believe in a strong Russia that is dominant in the region. In spite of President of Kazakhstan Nazarbayev’s hospitalization for prostate surgery in Germany, Russia along with Kazakhstan and Belarus, is moving forward on what is often called a “customs and postal union.” By treaty, Russia will coordinate customs and passport control activities of each of these countries, the postal service of each country and a planned phasing in of a common Ruble currency. Medvedev is working with the bankrupt and corrupt government of Belarus for Russia to coordinate all security forces communications between the countries as well. Ukraine is being courted as part of the “union” but is not yet in the fold. Kazakhstan’s corrupt Nazarbayev has been President since 1991 when the Soviet Union fell. In the last election he “won” with 95.5 percent of the vote.

Which brings us to the topic of fair elections. In the last Russian election Mr. Medvedev won with 71.25% of the popular vote amidst charges of rigged voting. You may recall from the 2008 election that the candidate was not named until late in the game. Medvedev was formally named as the United Russia party candidate on 10 December of 2007 and the election was just 4 short months later.

Sound familiar?

An April Russian Public Opinion Foundation report says that 43 per cent of Russians would vote for a combined Medvedev/Putin tandem, down from a 2009 high of 56 per cent. However polls also indicate that when considered individually, Medvedev is gaining strength.

But do these polls matter, and more importantly do citizen votes matter?

A great deal of work has been done by the citizen press, Russian free journalists and bloggers who have no official ties to the government. As just one example, a very savvy livejournal blogger named “Avmalgin” published copies of the voter protocols for a polling station in Moscow, #1,702. That certified document listed 192 votes for United Russia, then 98 for the Communist Party, 50 for A Just Russia, 38 votes for the Yabloko party and three small parties split the remaining 86 votes. But while Russia’s Central Election Commission reported the exact numbers for all the minority parties, by some miracle they raised United Russia total from 192 to a whopping 742 votes. That is quite an increase. Similar examples poured in from across Russia. It is no wonder as popular blogger Larussophobe reported, the head of the Central Election Commission threatened to prosecute those who published independent election data as “terrorists.”

So, why the wait for an announcement? There is no hurry and no strong challenger with whom to do battle. Right or wrong, the two men from whom the announcement will eventually come simply see no reason to rush.

As it stands right now time is on their side.

[mendeleyev]

Thank you, John. For whatever reason this time it pasted seamlessly.

[Gator]

As just one example, a very savvy livejournal blogger named “Avmalgin” published copies of the voter protocols for a polling station in Moscow, #1,702. That certified document listed 192 votes for United Russia, then 98 for the Communist Party, 50 for A Just Russia, 38 votes for the Yabloko party and three small parties split the remaining 86 votes. But while Russia’s Central Election Commission reported the exact numbers for all the minority parties, by some miracle they raised United Russia total from 192 to a whopping 742 votes. That is quite an increase. Similar examples poured in from across Russia. It is no wonder as popular blogger Larussophobe reported, the head of the Central Election Commission threatened to prosecute those who published independent election data as “terrorists.”

Incredulous.  Yet this is Russia, so why be surprised. 

[OlgaH]

Google translation
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://svpressa.ru/politic/article/45632/&ei=OoYtTrOHBtKltweCyszXAg&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CCcQ7gEwAA&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%25D0%259C%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B4%25D0%25B2%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B4%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B2%2B%25D1%258F%2B%25D0%25B8%25D0%25BB%25D0%25B8%2B%25D0%25BF%25D1%2583%25D1%2582%25D0%25B8%25D0%25BD%26hl%3Den%26biw%3D1115%26bih%3D561%26prmd%3Divns

During his meeting with 27 owners of major Russian companies Medvedev said that it is a time for businessmen to make their choice: "Medvedev or Putin"

Stanislav Belkovsky, president of the National Strategy Institute:
All the businessmen at the meeting have good relations with both candidates. But most important that every major Russian businessman understands that the business' survival and development depends on the connections on all the levels of bureaucracy. It doesn't matter who becomes the president if you have such connections.

[mendeleyev]

Olga, excellent observation.

A couple months ago President Medvedev chaired the steering committee of United Russia in a serious of meetings at the presidential residence in Gorky. Without being so direct he hinted at the same theme to the 150 or so in attendance and it was interesting that soon thereafter Putin announced formation of the Popular Front to replace United Russia.