Are there statistics on this?

[Wist]

Until now I have never given it much thought but is there such a thing as statistics on the success-failure rate of marriages with FCU/W? Would it even be meaningful? I am curious because I have just finished reading a very depressing thread on another category and last week a RW friend that deals with RW/AM couples in her business told me that she encounters a large number of failures/divorces.
Never having been married I can only speculate that maybe they were in too big a rush. In my limited experience I have only begun to really understand the woman's true complex nature and personality during the second visit. However in two cases, a couple of pevas (for the ladies) was enough to tell me what I needed to know.

[BC]

Short answer: No. Only empirical evidence gathered here and there.

Never is a good idea to use statistics to rate individual chances anyway..  It's simply fooling yourself.

[I/O]

Wist So far as I am aware there is no government statistics held in either the USA or Au on the divorce rate of FSU/USA-Au couples, however there has been a couple of credible studies conducted. 

One that springs to mind was completed by a Phd student from Long Island and if I remember correctly (It is quite a while since I read her report) I think in the +5 year married group about 80% were intact.  In the < 5 year group it was considerably higher. This compared to domestic failure rate in both USA and Au of approximately 50% (5 years+) makes the stats look quite good for the FSU/Western marriage. 

Nevertheless, statistics, like studies can be slanted to achieve a predetermined outcome, so one needs to be careful of such studies. 

I don't know about the USA, but here in Au, the number of Au/FSU marriages has been  blown far out of reality in the media during times past.  I recall seeing a program stating the 1000's of Russian women marrying Au guys, so under FOI, (Freedom Of Information) I approached the department of Immigration for actual numbers of Russian woman married to Au guys between the dates Jan 1 '04 and Jan 1 '06 and actually living in Au.  The number came back to a grand total of 92 if memory serves me correctly. 

I can't possibly have access to data on this, but a fair amount of research suggests to me that at least 3 of that group are now seperated or divorced.  There would logically be more, but I am inclind to think not a great deal more.  Maybe 10%.

FWIW

I/O 

[Turboguy]

I have to agree with I/O that past statistics don't mean a whole lot.   We would all be sitting around in the dark if after the first 1000 tries to make a light bulb Edison would have said I have made 1000 lightbulbs. Zero have worked so it is statistically impossible.  I quit. 

Even if we did not apply it to ourselves a good study would sure be interesting.  I have seen studies of some sort that go from almost a sure thing to almost impossible.  I have seen the same one that says the success rate is much higher than domestic rates.  I have seen government numbers that were misinterpreted that would indicate that 96% of the K-1's end up in failure very quickly.   Wm's observations show a very high rate of failure based on the 5000 or so Visa petitions he has done.   He has also observed that one week wonders have a much higher failure rate. 

I have a feeling that if there was ever a study done in detail it would show something like the failure rate for one week wonders was very high.  That about 1/3 of the K-1 applications never marry.  That those who take the time to know their woman have a higher rate of success than domestic marriages.   That the successful marriages are far more challenging than domestic ones but also far more rewarding.  I also have a feeling that there would be a lot of differences in many ways based on country of origion, such as those who marry FSW women compared to Asians.  I too would like to see some definitive studies.   That would be a good project for Ada if she had not vanished.

[Wist]

Yes, I see now what you mean, makes sense to me. I wonder how many of those guys felt pressured to move along faster than what they were comfortable with? I know I have.

[Turboguy]

With me it has been the opposite.   I am comfortable moving faster than our legal system will allow. 

Yes, I am sure some must move faster than they are comfortable with and I am sure some get so delusional that they want to get things locked up before they wake up and find it was a dream. 

I think too some people are lazy and want to do no more than it is necessary to have the results they want.  If they can get good candidate in one 5 day trip and don't have to waste the time and money to make another trip until she is here on a K-1 then that is all they will do.   I have always been a bit of a perfectionist and like to do things right.  Right is not one 5 day trip.

[Mir]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. (Disraeli)