Perspective - From Russia, with love!

[jone]

Consider This!

One of the great missions of Putin's administration is to repatriate various Russian ethnic majorities into Russia proper.  We have heard, now, that South Ossetia was a flat out Russian incursion, by Russia's own admission.  The reason for the conflict was simply to repatriate the majority of Russians in that region.  It also put the clamps on Saakashvili and his desires to marry into the West.  Russian military states that they started the war and South Ossetia has now self determined the desire to be part of Russia.

There is no question that Russia covets the industry in Kharkiv and the rocket plants of Dnepropetrovsk.  But both of these infrastructures are aging quickly.  The port in Mykolaiv is all but shut down with no ship building being done there for the last fifteen years.  Only Odessa shows signs of promise as a city which would be a jewel in the Russian necklace.

We now have Ukraine.  No one knows who sponsored Maidan, if even it was sponsored.  But what if the whole rebellion was planned and executed by Moscow in an effort to split Ukraine?  What did it leave us with?

1.  The Crimea Peninsula is now considering independence from Ukraine in an effort to distance itself from the "Fanatics of Kyiv".

2.  The Duma has approved legislation that will allow repatriation of parts of foreign land that wish to associate with Russia.  (Think West Germany creating legislation for the inclusion of other parts of Germany.)  In addition, the Duma is restating their passport provisions, inviting Ukrainians to declare themselves Russians on the flimsiest notions.

3.  Russia is not only housing, but giving a stage for Yanukovych to speak to re-assert himself into the political turmoil in Ukraine.

4.  Russian troops are conducting exercises and massing on the border of Ukraine.

One can only assume that the goal of all the above is to assimilate Eastern and Southern Ukraine into Russia.  Obviously they will have some type of trumped up invitation to do so.

Here is why Russia doesn't know WTF it is doing.

1.  By inviting Krim to become independent or part of Russia, the solid Russian majorities of Krim which were used to offset other nationalistic groups will no longer be voting in Ukrainian national elections.  This will give a huge boost to opposition parties in terms of which political direction the country leans.

2.  The younger generation of Ukrainians, of any political bent, are fed up with the Russian system of graft and corruption.  Yanukovych is the embodiment of that corruption.  As more comes out of how he raped the country, opposition leaders now in power will only need to point to projects that weren't completed and state, "Victor took this money.  This project couldn't be done be cause he took it."  (Of course this only works if the new President doesn't have the corruption history of say, a Tymoshenko.)

3.  Let's say that a split does occur and that Kyiv is part of the new Western Ukraine.  The new country would be made up of the breadbasket of Europe.  While the economy is much more agrarian by nature, the future of such a country would look very strong and would would easily meld into the EU.  In ten to twenty year's time, all the rest of Ukraine that joined Russia would be shaking their heads and wondering what the hell happened that Ukraine could be so prosperous and that their part of Russia is getting more of the same'o, same'o.

4.  Russia will put the whole world on notice that once again its imperialistic notions are in play.  And the ultimate result will be a repeat of East and West Germany.  Failure in one country.  Wild success in the other.  Western Ukraine will be the new Poland. 

Russia has yet to address the ultimate problems of corruption and an aging infrastructure in its own society.  Tearing one country apart to repatriate Russian peoples only highlights the ongoing structural problems that it has yet to address.  While Ukraine may be divided, Western Ukraine will wind up the big winner, regardless of who instigated Maidan  ..... even if it was Russia to try to recapture that Soviet feeling.

[Muzh]

Nice write up Jone.
 
Even though it sounds very enticing, I believe most of the country will stay united. Many young Ukrainians are starting to realize who and what is Russia.
 
For such a macho oriented country, the Russians sent special forces to control Sevastopol but are all unmarked. As if they are afraid of being "discovered" because of their insignias. Why? Don't tell me that these big, bad brutes are afraid of the decaying and metrosexual United States? The moment they start wearing their insignias identifying themselves as Russian forces, that in itself will declare a state of emergency and a defacto state of war. Fear of pissing off the Americans? I mean, everyone knows they are Russian forces so why not say who they are? Why hide it?
 
All this is not being lost to young Ukrainian eyes. Regardless of their location.

[jone]

All this is not being lost to young Ukrainian eyes. Regardless of their location.

You nailed it.

[Noch1]

Jone good write up, could be as true as any other scenario.

I don't think Russia is afraid of the US, they will not put boots on the ground in Ukraine, no matter what.
The fact that all countries are supporting Ukraine, even the ones who typically don't say anything.
A war, any war is expensive and Russia really want to spend this kind of money now.
The one thing the west could do to hurt Russia even more than actually fighting them.
WOuld be monetary sanctions. Putin is smart, I think he is playing with everyone now.
If no one bites, he only has two choices, invade, or back off and offer up help to Ukraine
as the rest are doing, and offer more to look better than western counter parts.

[Larry1]

One of the great missions of Putin's administration is to repatriate various Russian ethnic majorities into Russia proper.  We have heard, now, that South Ossetia was a flat out Russian incursion, by Russia's own admission.  The reason for the conflict was simply to repatriate the majority of Russians in that region.  It also put the clamps on Saakashvili and his desires to marry into the West.  Russian military states that they started the war and South Ossetia has now self determined the desire to be part of Russia.

Reading this part of the article gave me a dim recollection that there was a national leader in the last century who went about annexing parts of other countries that contained members of his ethnic group.  I can't remember who it was.  If it comes to me I'll mention the name, but I have a vague idea that the situation didn't end well for him.

[steveboy]

Nice write up Jone.
 
Even though it sounds very enticing, I believe most of the country will stay united. Many young Ukrainians are starting to realize who and what is Russia.
 
For such a macho oriented country, the Russians sent special forces to control Sevastopol but are all unmarked. As if they are afraid of being "discovered" because of their insignias. Why? Don't tell me that these big, bad brutes are afraid of the decaying and metrosexual United States? The moment they start wearing their insignias identifying themselves as Russian forces, that in itself will declare a state of emergency and a defacto state of war. Fear of pissing off the Americans? I mean, everyone knows they are Russian forces so why not say who they are? Why hide it?
 
All this is not being lost to young Ukrainian eyes. Regardless of their location.

How do you know many young Ukrainians are starting to know who and what Russia is???????????

[Noch1]

How do you know many young Ukrainians are starting to know who and what Russia is???????????

Unlike years gone by, Young people can read, from any source they wish on the internet.
So they can't be force fed what the Gov wishes them to believe. Young educated people, tend to look at
all sides of the box and figure it  out. Thats why:)

Think Egypt and young people.

[jone]

To all who are reading this:

I am one who is a true russophile.  I have many Russian friends.  I have many friends in Ukraine who are of Russian heritage.

But I believe, to the bottom of my heart, that causing military action in Ukraine is wrong.  Russia already has de facto control of the country.  What would be the reason for sending troops?  To subjugate it?

I fear for all of the people of Ukraine, not Russian nationals, not Western Ukrainians.  I fear for everyone.

God have mercy on those involved in what is to come!

[lordtiberius]

The US must go to war to defend Ukraine.  There I said it, but it is a fact.

[Muzh]

How do you know many young Ukrainians are starting to know who and what Russia is???????????

Stevie!!! I see you got a green star.
 
Put down the sauce and walk away.

[Muzh]

But I believe, to the bottom of my heart, that causing military action in Ukraine is wrong.  Russia already has de facto control of the country.  What would be the reason for sending troops?  To subjugate it?

 
Very dictatorial behavior, isn't it?
 
Jone, I believe you'll appreciate this POV.
 
Putin’s Pyrrhic Crimea Campaign
 
OK, I will confess that my belief in Russian realpolitikal reason is beginning to be stretched. Until now, Putin has proven a very effective–in his own terms–high-stakes poker player, with a keen sense of when his opponents are bluffing. He has been able to use that to parlay a much greater geopolitical role than Russia’s actual political, economic, military, even moral resources ‘should’ command. Of course, in foreign policy chutzpah is a crucial, if intangible asset, especially when dealing with a European Union that is often disunited and uncomfortable with active interventionism (I have yet to see where the ‘Action’ in the European External Action Service comes in) and a US presidency that appears unable to take a strong line on anything that doesn’t involve drones. My assumption was that Russian moves in the Crimea were primarily a characteristically in-your-face way of bringing political pressure to bear on Kyiv to reach some kind of understanding with the Moscow-leaning elites of the East and also with the Kremlin itself, recognising that Ukraine needed to genuflect to Russian political and psychological concerns.
 
At the risk of sounding increasingly naive, that still may be true. We have seen this weekend a strengthening of Russian forces in the Crimea (notably with paratroopers from the 7th Guards Airborne Division from Novorossisk) and illegal pressure on the relatively few Ukrainian forces there. Further units have been mobilised on the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the Federation Council duly voted to grant Putin the right to send forces into Ukraine, but that’s never been a factor before, so perversely I am faintly encouraged by that, in that it smacks more of a political threat rather than a necessary prelude to war.
 
So conceivably, conceivably, there is still scope for a political resolution, one that will allow Putin to pull the boys back, claim victory over a cowed Kyiv and a hand-wringing West, and await the next well-meaning invitation to a “reset” of east/west relations. Let’s face it, the usual pattern is that one will be along in six months or so. After all, and this is something worth stressing amidst all the high-octane journalistic and political rhetoric, so far there has been no Russian incursion beyond Crimea, which while clearly a violation of international law, could be worked out.
 
And yet I wonder if Putin has over-reached himself and under-thought the implications. If Putin either is committed to taking Crimea or finds himself locked into that course of action, it will be an expensive, Pyrrhic victory. The scale and paint-scorching vitriol of Russian media and government rhetoric, the rentamob “defend the Crimea” marches, all this pushes the Kremlin into a position harder from which to withdraw. It has also radicalised Kyiv’s position–Ukraine has understandably mobilised as both political gesture and also practical precaution–and granted it sanctity in Western eyes. After all, let’s not forget that until very recently, while no one in the West mourned Yanukovych’s departure, there were also concerns about the political stability of the new regime, its links with right-wing extremists, the constitutionality of the deposition of the president, etc. Now, to acknowledge any of those would be tantamount to giving comfort to Moscow.
 
What, one might ask, is Moscow’s endgame? What does it want, and how likely is it to get it. The more it radicalises Kyiv, the less likely it is to get some wider political settlement. Instead, it might be forced to take Crimea if for no other reason than that it has to be seen to accomplish something, even if this is a pyrrhic victory, one which will only hurt Russia.
 
Here, after all, is the perverse and twisted irony of the situation. Strictly from a coldly logical position (and I am not advocating this, I should add), in many ways it is in Kyiv’s interests for Moscow to steal Crimea, and turn it into some pseudo-state or new part of the Russian Federation. Ukraine loses a sunny peninsula, but also a distinct drain on the state’s coffers (the Crimean economy is not great, and the region receives net subsidies from the centre). It sheds the most troublesome and Russophile of its regions, one which has been a turbulent locus of trouble for Kyiv for most of post-Soviet Ukraine’s history. It also gets concrete proof of the threat it faces from Russian bullying and probably accelerated and solicitous assistance from the US, EU, NATO, etc. It also validates every Ukrainian fear about Russia.
 
Meanwhile, Russia would face a storm of protest. Now, it has done so before and probably thinks it could weather this easily enough again, but this is not 2008 and Ukraine is not Georgia (not least as Saakashvili overplayed his hand and allowed himself to be needled into firing the first shot). Indeed, outside countries will assess Crimea 2014 in light of Georgia 2008. Of course we won’t see military action (though possibly enhanced NATO guarantees for Ukraine), but considering the example of the Magnitsky Law already present, I’d expect targeted bans and asset-freezes on officials, visa restrictions and even potentially targeted sanctions against Russian corporations. This is already being adverted by the likes as Edward Lucas and Michael Weiss, and I would imagine it would have a great deal more traction if Crimea were forcible wrested from Ukraine. There is no way round it, the most powerful weapon against the Kremlin is one targeting the elites on which it depends.
 
Putin is nowhere near as powerful at home, within the elite, as before. That’s not to say he has any clear rivals, or in imminent political danger, but any serious and sustained campaign to attack his elite supporters’ freedom to travel, invest, bank and shop abroad might well seriously affect this. Let’s be honest, so far the West’s track record in following through and maintaining such efforts has been questionable, but that doesn’t mean it cannot happen in the future, and Ukraine–bordering onto NATO and the EU, after all–might be the necessary cause.
 
So, common sense dictates that this is just an especially muscular and egregious case of Russian sabre-rattling, that ultimately they want Kyiv to cut some kind of a deal (and they’d accept something short of complete submission), and that taking Crimea would actually not be in Moscow’s interests. As the language toughens and the troops roll, though, it’s getting harder to believe that common sense is going to prevail in the Kremlin.
 
In Moscow's Shadow

[jone]

Yeah, its something I might have written.

Here's the kicker:  Krim does nothing for Russia.  But losing Krim (and even Eastern and Southern Ukraine) polarizes the rest of Ukraine.  We wind up with an extremist state. 

People have assaulted me for calling out extreme points of view.  But everyone is being victimized by these points of view.  I happen to have a great deal of respect for Vladimir Vladimirovich (much more so than the US President).

The one thing that was not mentioned - but should have been - is the accord which focuses on the use of the Naval Base in Krim and the forgiveness of debt to Ukraine as the result of it.  If Krim goes on a path of its own, doesn't that negate the agreement?  Doesn't it leave Ukraine as destitute (well, more than it is) without the base?  And doesn't cancelling the agreement - because Krim is no longer in the sphere of Kyiv - push the expected State of Ukraine directly into the hands of the Western Powers and negate the ability for compromise and unity which heretofore has existed in Ukraine?

Thanks for sharing, Muzh.  You are perceptive.  It was my type of article.

[kmin]

To those who live in Cremea; this is in their neighborhood. Ukraine is not a huge country and those who live in Ukraine and Cremea know better about what is going on their then most of the US Citizens here who are being totally misled on the events.  This misinformation is being done through purposeful intent and whole ignorance by the media who is deeply invested in the Obama Presidency.

Simple facts are that the Ukrainian government was violently overthrown by a minority segment of the Ukrainian Population and put itself into power.  This violent group which did this is now in full power in the illegal government currently being backed by the US and EU.  Both the US and EU made the foolish and dangerous gambit of supporting members of Svaboda http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_%28political_party%29 to violently throw out the legal government in Ukraine.  They are Social Nationalist (Nazi) and there is more than enough evidence you can dig up just about anywhere on the internet you would like.

Yes there were many “peaceful” and “democratic” protestors who where in Kiev, yet they are not the ones who received the major positions of power and those that did receive some government positions have been told in no uncertain terms “you better just do as your are told” by Svaboda leaders.

Over the past 5 years Svaboda members have “cleaned up” their image and try to portray themselves as being some of the “good guys”.  To the fools we elected in the US they are now “people we can work with, people we can support, and people we want to see in power in Ukraine.”  Just look up information on Geoffrey R. Pyatt who is the US Ambassador and Vitoria Newland  who was the main person who funneled US Dept of State money to this Nazi Party to allow them to violently overthrow the democratically elected government in Ukraine.  Svaboda were not peaceful protestors, they were the armed insurrectionist who shot police, stabbed them, fire bombed them, used military grenades, and pipe bombs.  In addition the Svaboda party also used snipers to kill other protestors and police.  Svaboda members attacked Jews, Russians, and any Non-White person or business during this time.

Svaboda now is in an all out information war on the internet.  They are a Neo Nazi group and its leader Oleh Tyahnybok has declared an all out “information war”, some sites like Wikipedia have had over 175 edits in less than 24 hours as Svaboda desperately tries to clean its image so it can receive billions of dollars from the US Aid before the people of this country wake up and realize what a mistake it would be to lend any support to an unelected government in Ukraine being led by Neo Nazi thugs who will use the money to cement power in Ukraine through violence, intimidation, and murder.

The roots of Svaboda come straight out of the OUN (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists).  At OUN founding was pure support of WW2 Nazi Germany and the OUN assisted in Nazi Genocide.  Svaboda leaders, many who are now in high government position in Ukraine including Dept Prime Minister, Head of Military, Head of Police, Head of Agriculture, and Head of Economics, have all spoken in the past of cleaning out Ukraine of the unwanted Jews and Russians, by “engineered genocide”.

This is the REASON why those who live on Cremea have looked to Russia to get them out of the coming mess that is Ukraine.  This WHY there was a vote of almost 98% with a 80% voter turn out to get out of any new Ukraine Government being led by these Neo Nazis.  Cremea is Russia, it always has been and always will be.  Even the vast majority of Non-Russians living on Cremea don’t want anything to do with the “New Ukraine.” 

Now to the second issue; I am positively convinced that Russia has no ambition to have any control over Ukraine proper.  The US in its foolish medaling has set Ukraine on a path of civil war.  Currently there is a far right, violent, radical, Neo Nazi government in Kiev that is in power.  Only 10% +/- supports their views, while the rest of the country doesn’t want to have one corrupt government to be violently supplanted by another radically violent corrupt government.  Svaboda will start killing, Ukrainians will start fighting back against them, and there will be civil war in Ukraine.  If the US moves forward with fiscal aid to Svaboda they will be pouring massive amounts of fuel onto the fire.

I pray to god this doesn’t come to pass, but the writing is on the wall.  There has been something put into motion that will not be able to be stopped at this point.  Those living in Cremea know it, that is why virtually all of them want to have nothing to do with it and are happy to have Russia back to ensure the coming violence stays out of Cremea.  Putin and Russia didn’t need to stuff the ballot boxes, they didn’t need to intimidate anyone, this vote was a slam dunk, landslide to beat all landslides, which proved out in the vote beyond anything the Duma or Putin could have hoped for.

[jone]

What kind of an idiot puts a post up like the one above?

The Svoboda party is simply one faction (a small minority faction) of many parties who make up the leadership of Ukraine. 

The makeup of the Rada has not changed.  The Rada is still the same.  Not one person has been elected to the Rada who wasn't there before. 

When the faction of the Party of Regions (Yanukovych's Party) voted him out and joined with the majority of the other elected members of the country, a caretaker government was established.  Neither the Prime Minister or the Acting President are of the Svoboda party.  A deputy Prime Minister is the only person of leadership who holds any rank from Svoboda party.  And that is simply because the party held that much percentage in the Rada that such a position was accorded.

I'm an American who loves Ukraine. I have lived there, as a current thread of mine describes.  One of the things about America is that we can sort through the Bullshit and figure out who is correct and who is not.  You, sir, are lying.

One of the things that has to happen is people must now be on guard for people who are paid to stir up the pot.  I would suspect that kmin is one such person.

For the readers of the forum:  Beware of such a person.

[Faux Pas]

The Tea Party in America has been tagged as Nazis and Ku Klux Klan by the left wingers and DNC. I see no difference in the Russian propaganda machine labeling it's opposition Nazis. Label, divide and conquer. Wake up Russia. It's difficult to believe how easily you soak this spoon fed from Czar Putin shit up

[ML]

Simple facts are that the Ukrainian government was violently overthrown by a minority segment of the Ukrainian Population and put itself into power.  This violent group which did this is now in full power in the illegal government currently being backed by the US and EU. 

You are a true idiot who must be believing some Russian propaganda.

The Ukrainian national government now is the same as it was before any 'revolution.'

As was mentioned earlier, no one has been elected to Rada recently.

Rada had to appoint an interim President since the previous one was chicken shit and fled the country.

[ML]

This continuing story coming from Russians that the government of Ukraine is Nazi has to be about the funniest thing ever.

The pro-Russian 'Regions Party' was the largest faction in Ukrainian Rada both before the 'revolution' and now after the revolution.

Now, with the Rada members from Crimea no longer in the Rada, I don't know what the various parties proportions will be.  But, if the pro-Russian group will be smaller than before . . . guess who will have been the cause of that?