RUSSIA’S GDP TO REACH $1 TRILLION IN 2007
The GDP of Russia will reach $1 trillion already in 2007. This estimate was provided by analysts of Fitch agency in a review of emerging markets of Europe and CIS. In 2005, Russia took 14th place according to this parameter. A GDP of $1 trillion is sufficient to take a place at the end of the top ten of countries with the largest economies.
Russian analysts pointed out that in comparison to 2004, in 2005, Russian GDP in dollar equivalent grew 30%. They expect that this parameter will keep growing at the same pace for three to five years more. Afterwards the curve will inevitably reach a plateau and GDP growth parameters in dollars will be the same as those of the European Union countries or the US. However, by that time, Russia’s economy may become the fifth largest in the world and Russia will probably catch up with Germany, which will leave China ahead of it.
Valery Petrov, Chief Managing Director of managing company Alfa-Capital, comments, "Russia is one of the largest exporters of commodities, first of all, energy resources. These revenues enable us to increase the GDP so rapidly. We will reach $1 trillion definitely." Analyst Vadim Zuev of investment company Russian Financial Traditions presumes, "Such a rapid GDP growth in dollar terms can be explained by two factors: both by real growth of Russia’s GDP and by dollar depreciation and rouble appreciation." According to Zuev, Russia’s GDP may reach a level of $1 billion already in 2006, a year earlier than expected by Fitch. Yulia Tseplyaeva, chief economist of ING Bank, says, "According to our estimates, between 2004 and 2005, rouble appreciation accounted for up to 4% of GDP growth in dollar terms on average. It is possible that this trend will persist."
Experts expect that if high oil and gas prices persist, Russia’s GDP expressed in US dollars may keep growing at the same enormous speed further. Senior economist of Deutsche UFG, Yaroslav Lisovolik explains, "In the next three to five years the nominal GDP may grow by 30% a year because all factors of growth, first of all, prices of energy resources, will remain the same according to our forecasts." Chief economist of Troika Dialog investment company Yevgeni Gavrilenkov adds, "Besides oil and gas there are also metals and chemicals. All together, they account for 85% of our foreign currency revenues, which is further re-distributed in all sectors of the economy, for example, in retail, construction and so on. Metals and chemicals provide feeding up that ensures a positive dynamic of the share of this industry in the GDP."
A simple arithmetic calculation shows that if the current speed of growth is preserved in five years Russia’s GDP will be equal to that of Germany. Tseplyaeva explains, Tripling of the GDP in dollars is quite possible by 2010 and we can catch up with Germany according to this parameter. Russia’ GDP at a level of $3 trillion in five years is a quite realistic forecast." Zuev from Russian Financial Traditions is more cautious. According to him, rapid growth of the GDP in dollars terms will continue at least until 2008.
<ref>Biznes, May 19, 2006
